THURSDAY, MAY 29, 2014
VOL. 92 | NO. 22 | $4.25
GROWING WITH FARMERS FOR 90 YEARS
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WEATHER | SEEDING
Delayed seeding may become long-term problem on Prairies Changing weather linked to increased precipitation; usually lasts 20 to 30 years BY SEAN PRATT SASKATOON NEWSROOM
Get used to wet springs and seeding delays, says a weather expert. The excessive moisture that has taken acres out of production and pushed back seeding dates on the Canadian Prairies the last few years will be around for another decade or two, said Jeff Johnson, chief science officer for Schneider Electric, the parent company of DTN.
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) switched to a negative phase about five years ago, indicating a cooling of sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean. That negative phase strongly correlates with increased precipitation in the winter and spring on the Prairies, particularly in the southern half of the region. Johnson said the PDO tends to remain in the negative phase for 20 to 30 years. “There are individual variations, but the longer-term trend over the next 10 to 20 years probably would tend to favour more of the wetter springs,” he said. An El Nino could offset the PDO influence because it tends to bring drier conditions to the Prairies. Fore-
casters expect an El Nino to develop this year. “Most likely it won’t be a repeat case of the really wet conditions next spring,” said Johnson. However, a negative PDO is typically associated with an increased frequency of La Nina events, which amplify the wetter pattern for winter and spring on the Prairies. Meanwhile, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) recently switched to positive phase, indicating a warming of the northern Atlantic Ocean. A negative PDO and a positive AMO typically results in drought in the southwestern United States, which is what has occurred. It started in Texas about four years ago and has spread to other winter wheat producing states.
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It will continue to be a factor in crop production for at least another decade, said Johnson. Another big weather factor for the coming decades is climate change, which is causing weather patterns to stall. “We’re seeing more incidences of extreme dryness or wetness, where you get locked into one of those patterns and it’s really hard to break out of it,” said Johnson. The same goes for temperature, where warm or cold patterns are lasting for months at a time. “We’re not seeing the weather transition from one system to another as frequently,” he said during a DTN webinar on the topic. SEE WORRISOME WEATHER, PAGE 2
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The Western Producer is published in Saskatoon by Western Producer Publications, which is owned by GVIC Communications Corp. Publisher: Shaun Jessome Publications Mail Agreement No. 40069240
Jamie Ham and his six-year-old son,Tommy, check canola depth at their farm near Brock, Sask. |