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Wednesday 7 May 2025
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A large crowd turned up to Mornington Community Theatre to celebrate Ben Smith’s campaign. Only time will tell if it will be a successful one. Picture: Yanni
Flinders on a knife-edge Cameron McCullough cameron@mpnews.com.au THE federal seat of Flinders is a safe Liberal seat no more. The seat has been held continuously over the last half-century by the Liberal Party, except for a single period between 1983 and 1984. It is now going to be held by the Liberals by the slimmest of margins or potentially even lost. As of midday Monday, the result is
still unclear with the Australian Electoral Commission currently “estimating” that 3113 votes separate Liberal Zoe McKenzie and independent Ben Smith. This is with 102,505 votes currently counted and preference distribution incomplete. For reference, there were a total of 104,589 votes in the electorate in the 2022 federal election. During election night, the AEC provided a “two candidate preferred” graphic showing the estimated out-
come between the Liberal incumbent Zoe McKenzie, and Labor’s Sarah Race. Around 10pm, this graphic disappeared with the AEC possibly re-evaluating the outcome in consideration of potential preference allocations, placing Smith into the two-candidatepreferred mix. Currently, McKenzie’s primary vote sits at around 41.17%. This figure is a little more than 2% down on her results in 2022 when she polled 43.49%
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of the primary vote. Labor’s Sarah Race has lifted her party’s primary vote slightly and is currently at 22.33%, compared to 21.73% of the primary vote in 2022. The great disruption in 2025 was the campaign of independent Ben Smith. The Climate 200-backed candidate attracted 22.02% of the primary vote. Comparison can be drawn from 2022 where two “community independents” stood; Sarah Russell who managed 5.25% of primary votes and ex-coun-
cillor for the Mornington Peninsula Shire Despi O’Connor who managed 7.24% of the primary vote. Together the two “community independent” candidates attracted 12.49% of the primary vote in 2022. This equates to a near 10% jump in votes to the “community independent”. The result in Flinders will now down to preferences and it may be days before we have an eventual winner. Continued Page 3
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