THE GAWDA INDUSTRY ANALYSIS REPORT Provided by ITR Economics™
U.S. LEADING INDICATORS INSIGHTS: ■■ Longer-Term View: 2017: Accelerating growth 2018: Slowing growth 2019: Decline
RECOMMENDATIONS: ■■ Explore your labor and capital needs. Labor costs are rising, so be prepared to pay a higher rate to both new and current employees. Capital equipment will also become more expensive as interest rates rise in 2017.
INDICATORS
DIRECTION
WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY
ITR LEADING INDICATOR™
Rise
The indicator rose for the 10th month, substantiating the imminent low in industrial production and signaling a rise in the U.S. economy into at least the second half of 2017.
(Actual)
HOUSING STARTS (Most recent 12 months compared to same 12 months one year ago)
CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS INDEX (Most recent 12 months compared to same 12 months one year ago)
Mild Rise
Decline
Housing Starts ticked up in October but overall deceleration is expected to persist into the first half of 2017. Internal trends suggest upward momentum will take hold imminently. Rise bodes well for retail sales in the second half of 2017.
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U.S. TOTAL INDUSTRY CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
The utilization rate rose for the third consecutive month, which For more Rise information on GAWDA indicates upward movement for the U.S. economy in 2017. (Most recent month compared to same month one year ago) and association membership, contact: U.S. LEADINGStephen INDICATOR Hill, GAWDA Membership Manager Despite a tick down inServices October, the indicator remains above the Mild Rise (Most recent month compared previous low and indicates expansion for the U.S. economy in 2017. to same month one year ago)954-367-7728 x 220 / shill@gawda.org
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (Most recent month compared to same month one year ago)
S&P 500 STOCK PRICES (Raw data)
Rise
General rise in the Index since November 2015 supports the imminent low in industrial production and signals cyclical rise into at least late 2017.
Rise
The S&P 500 rose in the month of November. Further upward movement is likely going into at least 2017.
U.S. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW INSIGHTS: ■■ The U.S. economy, as measured by Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is growing. ■■ Consumer spending is outpacing the decline in the energy sector of the economy. ■■ U.S. consumers are benefiting from low inflation, high wage growth, and low interest rates, which are all contributing to GDP growth. ■■ Average U.S. manufacturing production during the 12 months through October 2016 rose 0.3 percent from 22 • Winter 2017
the year-ago level, as the consumer is keeping overall manufacturing out of recession. ■■ Employment is rising, averaging 122.0 million people in the 12 months through November 2016. ■■ Wages are rising (up 3.9 percent). ■■ High consumer confidence, rising savings rates and low interest rates all signal that the pace of retail sales (deflated) will accelerate in 2017.