HOW MIGHT YOU SOLVE A BIG SPRINT HANDICAP? TOMAHAWK STEAKHOUSES HANDICAP
This evening’s Tomahawk Steakhouses handicap looks a tricky betting proposition for novice racegoers with fifteen closely matched runners set to go to post. Is it best to plump for a lucky number, an interesting name or a set of jockey silks you like the look of? Whilst all of these strategies may throw up the odd winner, a safer and more prudent approach would be to apply some straightforward methodology. Narrowing down the field of fifteen declared runners is easier than you think if you follow a few simple guidelines, to hopefully identify the winner of this and the other handicaps. Before we start, it is important to understand what a handicap is. Once a horse has raced three times they are given an official rating (often referred to as a handicap mark) by the British Horseracing Authority. This provides a numerical guide to each horse’s level of ability. Ratings usually start at around 40 for a modest performer with the mighty Frankel finishing his career in the 140s. The ranking operates the opposite way around from a golf handicap, so each time a horse runs this rating is adjusted either upwards for a good performance or down for a weaker effort, so that it reflects the horses most recent form. Each of these rating points are meant to reflect 1lb in weight, so looking at today’s race, Bossipop is rated 70 is considered 1lb “better” than Dream Together who is rated 69. If these horses were to race carrying the same weight theoretically Bossipop should win every time as he is the better horse. Races which were too predictable wouldn’t make good viewing and therefore the handicap is designed to set a level playing field. So in this example Bossipop carries 1lb more than Dream Together, which should in theory see them cross the line together and that rule applies to all of the fifteen runners – but, despite dead heats being a possibility, you won’t ever see all twenty two runners cross the line together so how to separate them in advance? Horses which won or ran well last time will attract the interest of the handicapper and a rise of 6 or 7lb can often follow. Sometimes this can prove a step too far as horses then struggle to concede weight to lower rated rivals. Eventually as the horse continues to run without winning their rating will come back down to a winnable mark and the whole cycle begins again. The art is working out which category your horse falls into. Don’t forget to ensure you keep an eye and an ear out for non-runners, there will be announcements over the PA system and the screens around the course will be updated with non-runner information, as they have to be in it to win it! 16
1) FORM Here at York it often pays to side with horses in form but it is also important that they look like they still have a bit of improvement left. There are a few who come here without having the best of recent records and so might be best ignored today; Surprise Picture, International Girl & Captain Vallo. 2) THE DRAW Where a horse is drawn in the stalls can be an important factor, particularly in a sprint and is perhaps one of the most debated topics in racing. Some punters swear that being drawn close to a rail is an advantage as it keeps a horse focused on running straight. However here at York, in recent seasons those drawn down the centre of the track have often held the upper hand, the counter logic being that their jockey can keep an eye on the competition on both flanks. Perhaps Good Earth can use this to his advantage. 3) DISTANCE Having a runner who has already shown their liking for a particular trip can be invaluable. Admirality, As If By Chance and Rhythm have all won over today’s disrance 4) GROUND If you thought the debates over draw were intense then try talking about the impact of ground to a racing anorak. In simple terms, different horses run better on different types of surface, just like some human athletes might prefer cross country to the track. Muscika is one who will enjoy a quicker surface. However Admirality wins have come on a surface that is a little softer. So make sure to check the weather and the ground description. 5) YORK RECORD “Horses for courses” is not a popular phrase by accident, just like football teams have a lucky ground. This year we have plenty of horses that have won at the course and distance, Muscika, Good Earth and Our Little Pony all have excellent form over the knavesmire. 6) CONCLUSION Following these simple rules has helped to narrow down the shortlist. Going on a hunch that ‘good to firm’ will be the description, the Tim Easterby-trained Bossipop might well continue his consistent form and could take all the beating. He should excel over the trip here at York and will get his favourite surface. He’s dropped to a very workable mark and lot of his best runs have come at six furlongs.
