SEAN BOWEN CODD COLEMAN
| JAMIE
PAUL FERGUSON’S JUMPERS TO FOLLOW 2022-2023 Including interviews with
| AIDAN
ADRIAN HESKIN | BRIAN HUGHES | JONJO O’NEILL JNR NICK SCHOLFIELD | HARRY SKELTON IN ASSOCIATION WITH Mini Guide
2 Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
Welcome PAUL FERGUSON
As always, the main body of the book is made up of my 40 Leading Prospects and a further 20 Irish horses to follow, highlighted in the Across The Sea section. The majority of these horses are unexposed and will be competing in one of the novice divisions. Other regular sections to return are Around The Yards – which is my own personal view on horses to follow from stables from up and down the UK – as well as News From France and Point-to-Point Graduates , which is much larger than it was 12 months ago. Five of this year’s 40 Leading Prospects are winning Irish Pointers, who have yet to race under Rules, which goes to illus trate the strength-in-depth coming through that sphere at present.
The Big-Race Trends section takes a look at a dozen feature races in the format of the Chelten ham Festival Betting Guide, whilst Sean Bowen joins the jockeys who have kindly contributed to the A View From The Saddle section. And, Pundits’ Selections sees Graham Cunningham, Tony Keenan, Rishi Persad, Charlie Poste, Sam Turner and Rhys Williams nominate their horse to follow for the months ahead. Thanks to all six and to all eight jockeys who once again took the time to select the horses who they are most looking forward to riding this winter.
Best of luck for an enjoyable – and, hopefully, profitable – season. Paul.
This year, I have added a new section called Breeding Angles, which takes a look at some of the improving and up-and-coming sires, who I believe capable of making an impact this season.
I would like to thank trainer Jonjo O’Neill for kindly taking the time to write this year’s Fore word. It could be an exciting season for Jonjo and his team, who appear to have a talented squad of youngsters to go to war with. Also, thanks to the other trainers – or their representatives – who took the time to answer my many questions during the summer.Thank you to all at Weatherbys, most notably Paul Wright, and to the photographers – John Grossick, Mark Cranham and Healys – whose excel lent work appears within the publication. The horse on the cover is the Nick Alexander-trained Donny Boy, captured when winning at Newcastle last December.And,finally, thank you to each and every one of you for purchasing a copy of Jumpers To Follow Now in it’s 16th year, your continued support really does make it worthwhile and I thoroughly hope that you enjoy reading this year’s edition.
There were some top-class performances at the spring festivals, too, most notably that of Constitution Hill in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Galopin des Champs almost dished out a similarly comprehensive beating to Bob Olinger in the Turn ers Novices’ Chase, but did end the campaign on a high at Fairyhouse. The prospect of that pair ing entering open company is certainly something to get excited about, especially with the thought of Constitution Hill clashing with dual Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle. The Cheveley Parkowned pairing Allaho and A Plus Tard were facile winners of the Ryanair and Gold Cup respectively, and these household names are covered in detail in the Top-Class Performers section.
CROWDS were back for the spring festivals this year and it made a huge difference to the atmosphere at Cheltenham, Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown. It also meant that the presentations could be made on the final day of the domestic season at Sandown and having missed the opportunity to savour that moment with his family two years earlier, it was great to see Jumpers To Follow regular contributor Brian Hughes collect his trophy. Many congratula tions to both Brian and to Paul Nicholls, who won another National Hunt Trainers’ title.
Overall, the book is a gem to retain and back reference, especially to catch that early glimpse of talented young horses before they have run. Between the pages, the reader glimpses into yards – big and small – and has become an autumn tradition to peruse the content, eagerly anticipating what the next few months will bring.
BY the time you read this, the summer will be almost over and whilst we had a much smaller summer team than in previous years, we are building a strong winter team. Those cold months are not that far away now and I am greatly looking forward to them.
As you might have read, or you will read in the coming pages, I have invested in quite a few youngsters and I’m glad that Paul thinks a few of them are deemed promising enough to have been included in the book. I certainly hope he is right.
With Jonjo (Jnr) once again contributing to the A View From The Saddle section – where a host of top jockeys select the horses that they are most looking forward to riding – I won’t go into too much detail about our horses, but a few to look out for include one of my old favourites Soaring Glory, who in the next couple of weeks will be tried
Best JonjoWishes,
Jumpers To Follow has become a handy tool for referencing opposition runners and pinpointing a potential seasonal target. The Big-Race Trends section is very useful and is always factual and informative. The section on Point-to-Point Graduates is also educational and one I often return to.
unbeaten who his
Whilst I am writing this, the store sales are in full swing. We have been very busy buying stores and young stock, in the hope that we can emulate the past two seasons. Both exceeded expectations, from picking up a few notable prizes in 2020-2021 and last season being our best in seven seasons. We hope to keep building on this again in the coming months.
Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023 3
over fences at home. We didn't have him quite right for the second half of last season, so I think that there is still more to come. It will be interesting to see how far Anyharminasking can progress after rising through the handicap – a bit too much for my liking – last season. Two young horses to monitor closely are Iron Bridge, who was unbeaten in both his novice hurdles, and Are U Wise To That, who I know impressed Paul when winning his bumper at Warwick, before being turned out. Fingers crossed that they can both keep progressing. Of the more established stars, I hope that we can get a clear run with Cloth Cap in some of the better staying chases and Annic Mc in the mares’ division.
Foreword JONJO O’NEILL
I was handed the ominous task of following some well-known racing names in producing the foreword for Jumpers To Follow. However, it is a privilege to write this for Paul, who has become a good friend of the yard and is always a helpful mind to pick, especially about an alternate plan for any horse.
I very much hope that you enjoy reading the book and judged on past results, I am sure that it will be as successful as ever. I will certainly be referring to it throughout the season.
4 Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
Cornelius Lysaght is a Fitzdares Ambassador
It was hardly heart-in-mouth stuff but concentrates the mind for the Fitzdares special which is an intriguing 22-1 that ‘Galopin’ gallops through the season unbeaten, again with the minimum four runs proviso.
While we may have to wait a while before the much-anticipated clash with Honeysuckle, Fitzdares is offering 7-4 Constitution Hill and 3-1 the mare for the Champion Hurdle. Have they got it the correct wayChasing-wise,around? Bravemansgame missed Cheltenham and endured a blip at Aintree. Prior to that, he was in irresistible form which included a 7 ½ length drubbing of the admirable Ahoy Senor at Kempton on Boxing Day in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. Just over an hour later, Tornado Flyer sent the Fitzdares traders into extra yuletide raptures when springing that King George shock.With this season’s Christmas highlight top of the agenda for Bravemansgame those same traders say it’s 20-1 for him to win at Kempton and then hit the places in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. In both races, he’d likely lock horns with Ahoy Senor again and fellow rising stars Galopin Des Champs and L’Homme Presse. Also keep in mind the heroic Henry de Bromheadtrained Gold Cup winners A Plus Tard and Minella Indo, among others.Galopin Des Champs’ final fence departure at Cheltenham was
Although runner-up in his Pointto-Point, there is nothing quite like the u-word ‘unbeaten’, the horse’s status since racing under Rules. With that in mind, Fitzdares is
Imagine, if he is already three from three and coming to the last at Punchestown well clear, the Fitzdares trading room will go very quiet indeed, while TV backers will be jumping into hiding places behind the Personally,sofa.I can’t wait – some great racing is in prospect, and thanks to Paul and Weatherbys for whetting the appetite.
• Specials are subject to time limits. WORD FROM THE SPONSORS
Conversely it can all end well. After four minutes of the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle, the collective sigh of relief when Brazil nutted late on the heavily touted Gaelic Warrior could almost have been heard 100 miles away on the famous Cotswold finishingThereline.will be much more of the same in the months ahead.
A
EVERYONE in the beating heart of operations seems to be able to hold their breath for longer than they ever imagined, in the case of Flooring Porter’s second Stayers Hurdle that was for near-as-damn-it six minutes, before attention turned to working out the final (hefty) numbers.
As the nights begin to draw in, it is fairly extraordinary to think that when they did last, in the early autumn of 2021, mention of Constitution Hill would have elicited quite likely more responses about the central London thoroughfare than any four-year-old son of Blue Bresil.Twelve months on, he reminds of many of the stars that have had fans of Nicky Henderson hanging on his every word during the jumps season, of which See You Then, Remittance Man and Sprinter Sacre are personal favourites (though you will have others too).
perhaps the most dramatic moment of the whole of the 21/22 season. It was terrific that the horse was able to show his subsequent well-being with a facile success at Fairyhouse, though the Racing Post records the close-up comment “not fluent last”.
packed corners of the pop-up Fitzdares Club apart, there can be few more atmospheric places during the Cheltenham Festival than the trading room at the world’s finest bookmaker when the chips really are down.
tempting us with a pre-season quote of 5-1 he remains his peerless self during the 2022/23 season (including a potential Punchestown outing), based on a minimum of four runs.
The
ORDER YOUR COPY TODAY online weatherbysshop.co.uk | by phone +44(0)1933 304776 (Mon-Fri 8.30am-5.30pm) Restricted to the first 200 subscribers • Posted as a weekly update (Thursday or Friday) on www.bettrends.co.uk • Reviews the previous week’s racing and assesses the chances of any Jumpers To Follow (plus any other horses who are of interest to Paul) running at the weekend • Analysis of any new Jumpers To Follow added to Paul’s portfolio • ‘Fergie’s Notebook’ - horses that have caught Paul’s eye in the paddock, and at various yard visits • Email notifications sent whenever an update becomes available ONLINE UPDATES ONLY £99 PAUL FERGUSON’S JUMPERS TO FOLLOW 2022-2023
Leading PROSPECTS
LUCCIA
Jumpers To Follow 2022-20236
THE first of two of last year’s Leading Prospects to retain their position in the publication, we didn’t get to see Matterhorn last term, but he remains an exciting prospect and is expected to return to the track this autumn.
Runner-up on her sole start for Lorna Fowler, Mellificent cost €150,000 and given that she is a half-sis ter to the four-time winner Tamar Bridge, should only improve as she faces a stiffer test of stamina.
2m+ on any ground Career Form Figures
2-
Ideal Conditions Unknown Career Form Figures 3/
OWNER of the Newcastle Falcons Rugby Club, Semore Kurdi has a couple of horses in training with local trainer Pauline Robson and has invested more heavily in this exciting mare, who was bought at the Punchestown Festival sale by Jonjo O’Neill.
Trainer Paul Nicholls Owner Mrs Johnny de la Hey
Softer ground shouldn’t pose any problems and despite her pedigree suggesting that she wants a trip once sent hurdling, she possesses enough class to win a mares’ bumper on her British debut before future plans are finalised.
MELLIFICENT
5yo Fame And Glory – Mise en Place (Dr Fong)
Third on his sole start in France, he made a serious error when upsides at the final obstacle in the Prix Wild Monarch (a Listed race for un-raced three-year-olds), where he lost his back end and many lengths as a result. To his credit, Matterhorn rallied to take third and it was certainly a hugely promis ingTheintroduction.formworked out well, too, with the winner returning to Auteuil to win his next two starts – latterly in Grade 3 company – whilst Gaelic Warrior was back in sixth. He twice hit the frame at Auteuil before joining Willie Mullins, for whom he was only narrowly denied on debut, in the Boodles at Cheltenham. Despite missing last season, Matterhorn remains very much a horse of significant promise and could easily develop into a high-class novice. Given that his new owner tends to have considerably more runners at Ascot and Kempton than anywhere else, don’t be surprised to see him appear at either track in the coming months. If he were to win well on British debut, perhaps Ascot’s Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle could become a realistic pre-Christmas target.
MATTERHORN
4yo Martaline – Sacarine (Turgeon)
The daughter of Fame And Glory made her racecourse debut in a competitive-looking bumper at Fairyhouse on Easter Sunday and she finished an encouraging second to the promising Hunters Yarn, who was winning a third bumper. Held-up in a steadily-run affair, she was shuffled right back to last as the field turned in, but really found her stride with two furlongs to run and took advantage of the gap that appeared up the rail. Still in fifth place inside the final furlong, she was closing all of the time and got to within 1½ lengths of the winner, with the Gordon Elliott-trained pairing of The Mediator and I Am Fortunata (both had won well on debut) back in third and fourth respectively.
7Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill Owner Semore Kurdi
Ideal Conditions
Across THE SEA THREE STRIPE LIFE Jumpers To Follow 2022-20238
Optimum Conditions
4yo Saint des Saints – Aseelah (Green Tune)
As he did with his subsequent dual Grade 1 winning novice, Gordon Elliott opted not run Imagine again and although the form doesn’t amount to a great deal, visually it was impressive and looks to be a case of style over substance. He looks to be blessed with enough pace to be campaigned over the mini mum trip and he had little trouble in handling the testing ground. His pedigree – being out of a Robin des Champs mare – suggests that soft ground might actually be beneficial to him.
1-
Trainer Thomas Cooper Owner Ciaran John Mooney
His trainer has enjoyed some fantastic days over the years, with Total Enjoyment (Weatherbys Cham pion Bumper) and Forpadydeplasterer (Arkle) providing him with Cheltenham Festival success, and he will be hoping that Icare d’Aubrelle can take him back to the big meetings this season.
MIGHTY POTTER was successful in a Punchestown bumper on his sole start before developing into a high-class novice hurdler last season and Imagine put up a similar performance in winning the very same bumper this year.
WHILST the race that he won might not have been the strongest of four-year-old bumpers, visually Icare d’Aubrelle created a good impression when successful on his racecourse debut at Naas during February.
9Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
4yo Montmartre – Ofurie (Robin des Champs) Trainer Gordon Elliott Owner Caldwell Construction Ltd
ICARE D’AUBRELLE
Ridden positively by Derek O’Connor, the son of Saint des Saints carried his head low in the early part of the contest, but strode out nicely and was still galloping on strongly when asked to pick up with two furlongs to run. Despite looking quite green and showing a pronounced knee action, he put daylight between himself and the opposition, eventually scoring by 8½ lengths. The form wasn’t tested too much (2nd and 4th didn’t run again), but the third home did win at Ballinrobe in the spring.
Unknown Career Form Figures
A half-brother to French Aseel, who looked a top-class prospect when winning a juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown in December 2020, his pedigree implies that he will appreciate soft ground and his knee action also suggests as much. He did hold an entry in the Listed four-year-old bumper at Limerick in the spring, but Thomas Cooper opted not to run Icare d’Aubrelle again and he very much remains an unknown quantity.
Carrying the colours of Edelle Logan, the son of Montmartre was sent off odds-on to make a winning racecourse debut and having moved up smoothly into the home straight, he showed a fine turn of foot when asked to win the race. If you watch a replay of Mighty Potter’s success from 12 months earlier, the resemblance is clear to see.
When he returns he will be carrying the red and white silks of Andrew and Gemma Brown (Caldwell Construction Ltd) and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he were to start off in the same maiden hurdle that Mighty Potter won at Down Royal.
Optimum Conditions 2m on soft ground Career Form Figures 1-
IMAGINE
Around THE YARDSGELINO
BELLO – A SMART NOVICE CHASE PROSPECT FOR PAUL NICHOLLS
Jumpers To Follow 2022-202310
A FOUR-YEAR-OLD by Diamond Boy, he carries the silks of the Henrietta Knight Racing Club and was pitched in quite deep on debut, in a 1m6f bumper at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. A
PRESENTING A QUEEN
Chris Gordon
shade keen early, he moved well into contention and certainly wasn’t disgraced, only fading in the closing stages. Third at Kempton on better ground on his second start, he got off the mark at Hunting don in May, when making all. A smooth-travelling sort, he looks to possess the pace to be effective over the minimum trip once sent hurdling and his pedigree would concur. An interesting prospect, who progressed steadily last season.
11Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
A FIVE-YEAR-OLD by Malinas, he won a Point-toPoint bumper at Barbury when trained by David Phelan and made a successful debut under Rules when winning at Chepstow in late-February. Kept wide throughout at Barbury by Ben Bromley, he made a positive move as the field swept for home and stayed on really well up the home straight to beat a next-time-out winner (won a mares’ Point) in workmanlike fashion. The ground was heavy at Chepstow and he travelled comfortably through out. Asked to pick up halfway up the home straight, he again showed a willing attitude and although it took him a few strides to get going, he really finished well in the closing stages, crossing the line 6 lengths clear, with a further 5½ lengths back to the well-fancied Marty Byrde. Clearly versatile in terms of ground, he should improve as he goes up in trip over hurdles.
CHURCHILLS BOY
THIRD in an Irish Point, he won his first two starts for Chris Gordon and owners Richard and Carol Cheshire, when landing bumpers at Kempton and Newbury. A powerful mover, he took up the running a long way out at Kempton and having kicked off the home bend, lengthened away to win by 7 lengths, with a further 8 lengths back to Boom Boom, who was sent off favourite for Nicky Henderson. The third renewed rivalry with Leave Of Absence at Newbury, but despite get closer, the result was still the same, with the son of Masked Marvel making all. He again found plenty and lengthened nicely up the home straight. Just a week later, he was allowed to take his chance in the Grade 2 at Aintree, where he ran with great credit to finish third. Again, never far from the pace, he kept on once passed by the winner and looks sure to win races over hurdles this season. Not short of speed, I would expect him to start over 2m and he clearly handles decent ground well. He’s a nice prospect with a good physique to match his engine.
ANOTHER two-time bumper winner for the same connections, she had finished runner-up in an Irish Point before joining Chris Gordon (beaten 12 lengths) and made a winning start at Newbury. Ridden positively, she was headed halfway up the straight and having looked like being swal lowed up (dropped to fifth), she really found her stride inside the final furlong and regained the lead inside the final 100 yards. Sent to Plump ton under a penalty, she justified favouritism, but had to work quite hard to do so. To her credit, she again found plenty for pressure and shapes like she will appreciate a stiffer test once sent hurdling. By Presenting out of a King’s Theatre mare, she has a proper jumping pedigree and being from the family of Royal Regatta (dam a full-sister), decent ground is likely to be benefi cial. She looks to be another really nice prospect for Richard and Carol Cheshire.
Nick Gifford
DIAMOND EGG
LEAVE OF ABSENCE
NICK SCHOLFIELD
AIDAN COLEMAN
Jumpers To Follow 2022-202312
ADRIAN HESKIN BRIAN HUGHES
HARRY SKELTON
A View FROM THE SADDLEJAMIECODD
JONJO O’NEILL Jnr
SEAN BOWEN
A NEW addition to the team, he is in training with Nicky Henderson. He ran very well to finish second in his Pointto-Point when trained by Sean Doyle, after which Max and his friend Greg Stone – who also part-owns Clifton Bridge and Technology – snapped him up. A full-brother to Restandbethankful, they are like chalk and cheese as this fella would be a hand bigger. He has been pleasing in his work at Seven Barrows and will most likely make his debut in a bumper in the autumn, then go straight over hurdles. He’s an exciting horse.
CROKE PARK Gordon Elliott
A BEAUTIFUL horse by Walk In The Park, he won a Pointto-Point on his second start for Denis Murphy, when he put in a smart performance to win after being penned in a little up the straight in Dromahane. When he got out, he picked up really well and showed the benefit of his debut, when he looked quite green. Given his pedigree, I would be surprised if he didn’t go down the bumper route and he could just be very, very nice.
ALTHOUGH she didn’t win last season, she ran well in two bumpers and has already made a winning reappearance, when quickening up smartly at Worcester in August. She had earlier stayed on well at Ffos Las and then came up against a nice horse at Haydock, and I expect her to continue to improve. It could be that we try and win another bumper under a penalty then attempt to pinch a bit of black type before going hurdling, but she will stay further, has schooled very well and hopefully, could be quite a nice filly going forward.
SEAN BOWEN
Jumpers To Follow 2021-2022
LETTERSTON LADY Peter Bowen
ANOTHER who enjoyed a fantastic year last season, winning four of his five starts and was beaten only by Constitution Hill, who looks to be pretty special. He showed a good attitude to win his first Grade 1 at Aintree, which wasn’t a surprise to me and he is a dream to ride. He won a couple of Grade 2s in the first half of the season – when forced to make the running at Ascot –and although I haven’t discussed it with anyone, I would imagine that he will go chasing. It’s hard to put a trip on him at the moment, but he will have no problem in stay ing further when the time comes and wherever he goes, he remains very exciting.
AIDAN
JONBON Nicky Henderson
ADRIANCOLEMANHESKIN 13Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
PERSIAN TIME Nicky Henderson
COPPER COVE Jonjo O’Neill
A FAME And Glory mare who hasn’t actually run for us, she came from the Irish Point-to-Point field, where she won first time up. She was an impressive winner and the second has won since, and we were in no rush to run her in the spring. I sat on her a few times and she felt quite forward going, whilst also giving the impression that there was an awful lot of ability in there. She has been with us since Christmas time and has done plenty of schooling, so I suspect that she will go straight over hurdles and I am hopeful that she could be quite good.
BRIAN HUGHES
A LOVELY big horse, who won three times over hurdles and I thought he improved with every run. A full-brother to Valdez, who was a decent chaser for Alan King, he actually run well on his final start when second to a horse of Alan’s at Bangor (Harbour Lake) and he had impressed me when I had won on him earlier in the season at Weth erby. I was possibly a little bit aggressive on him and he made a mistake at the last, but last year was always geared towards this season and going chasing. He is a likeable horse and one who I am really looking forward to, as I would be hopeful that he can continue to progress.
JONJO O’NEILL JNR
NICK
HARRYSCHOLFIELDSKELTON 14 Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
A FINE big horse who won a bumper at Exeter and what he achieved last season was most definitely a bonus, as he is a 3m chaser of the future. In hindsight, he proba bly didn’t need to run at Chepstow, as he loved the soft ground at Exeter and is a relentless galloper. A horse who I have always liked a lot, he might be a long-term pros pect, but I do think that he could turn out to be a fair horse one day. A work-in-progress, he was green when beaten on debut and I expected him to come forward and win on his second start, as he did. He did plenty of growing throughout last season, so there is plenty more to come.
MISSED TEE Dan Skelton
JUNGLE JACK Donald McCain
DEEPER BLUE Harry Fry
I WON twice on him towards the back end of last season, firstly very easily at Fontwell, he then carried a big-weight to win a handicap at Exeter off a mark of 124. Still a novice until the end of November, there is a chance that Harry could possibly consider something like the Persian War as a starting point, before a decision is made as to whether or not he goes chasing. A nice big chestnut by Muhtathir, he jumps very well and should stay further, and having filled into his frame, he has the scope to be a much better chaser.
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Point-to-Point
GRADUATES AN TOBAR Jumpers To Follow 2022-202316
ANOTHER who will be representing the team of Paul Nicholls and Chris Giles, he won a four-yearold maiden at Lingstown in December, shortly before going through the sales ring at Cheltenham, where he fetched £305,000. By Shantou out of an Oscar mare, who hails from a nice family which includes Imperial Presence, Generous Ransom and Little River Bay, he showed a good turn of foot on the approach to two out, as there were plenty in with chances at that point, only for it to quickly become a two-horse race. He readily mastered the runner-up and although he could finish only fourth in a Leopardstown bumper, the third and fourth were both next-time-out Points winners. His pedi gree – certainly on the dam’s side – would suggest that he should be at home over an intermediate trip and will handle decent ground.
THE GOONER Jonjo O’Neill
ANOTHER new recruit to Jackdaws Castle, this son of Flemensfirth cost €280,000 at the Punches town Festival sale, on the back of a 12-length win at Curraghmore. Ridden patiently, he effortlessly eased into second place at the third last and really asserted on the run to the final fence, winning in fine style. Both him and the runner-up Bill Jack (has since joined Jamie Snowden, purchased at the same sale for €100,000) got into a protracted battle a long way from home, so it was much to his credit that he was so strong at the line. He looks to possess plenty of stamina, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he were to be sent straight over hurdles over an intermediate trip. The runner-up also shaped with plenty of promise and those in behind all failed to complete.
ANOTHER of the expensive lots from last Decem ber’s sale at Cheltenham (£310,000), he is a real old-fashioned chasing type on looks and was a 3-length winner at Dromahane the previous month. Pouring it on from four out, he jumped soundly and although challenged by the runner-up approaching two out, stayed on strongly with the pair nicely clear. The third and fourth haven’t really advertised the form since, with the fourth only successful from a lowly mark of 88 in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown in May, but the way The Gunner Yeats stretched clear was impressive and he is an interesting recruit to the all-conquering stable of Willie Mullins. Second home Not Long Left had gone through the ring at the Novem ber sale, making £200,000 and is now in training with Christian Williams, in the ownership of Gwent
STAY AWAY FAY Paul Nicholls
WINCHMORE HILL Donald McCain
17Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
BEATEN a neck when sent off at odds-on to win a five-year-old maiden at Loughrea, he moved like much the best horse for most of the race and a minor peck at the final fence might well have been the difference between winning and losing. Quite green when asked to chal lenge in the closing stages, there looks to be plenty of improvement in this big, good-looking son of Walk In The Park, who is a half-brother to Harmundason (maiden hurdle winner for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown) and White Hart Lady (impressive bumper winner on debut for Harry Fry at Aintree in October 2019). His dam is from the family of Champion Bumper winner Joe Cullen and given his physique, he might be one who heads straight over hurdles in the autumn. Purchased by Donald McCain, he is in the ownership of Tim Leslie and looks to be a really nice prospect for northern novice hurdles.
THE GUNNER YEATS W P Mullins
Holdings Limited, who appear to be building a nice team of young horses. A mistake at the second last was quite costly to the chances of the Presenting gelding, who boasts a nice pedigree. Brother to Newbury novice hurdle winner Surtile, his dam is an un-raced sister to the high-class Oscar Whisky, who won 16 races for Nicky Henderson, including two Aintree Hurdles.
Top-Class PERFORMERS CONSTITUTION HILL Jumpers To Follow 2022-202318
Domestically, she will face a possible new two-pronged challenge from Closutton, with County Hurdle winner State Man and Triumph hero Vauban both set to embark on a Champion Hurdle campaign. The former only won the Cheltenham handicap from a mark of 141, but was backed –and ridden – like a horse who was believed to be well ahead of his rating and he duly stepped up to
19Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
STARTING with the 2m division and where else to begin other than with the reigning two-time Cham pion Hurdler, Honeysuckle . Now unbeaten in 16 starts over hurdles – and a Point-to-Point – Henry de Bromhead’s eight-year-old was 3½ lengths too good for Epatante in this year’s Champion Hurdle and rounded off her campaign with a comforta ble 3-length success at Punchestown. A hugely impressive winner of the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle on reappearance, she won a third Irish Cham pion Hurdle in February and her season is likely to consist of the same four races once again. Having followed the exact same path for each of the past two seasons, it would be a shock if her routine were to change at this stage and if she does indeed reap pear in the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse, she will bid to become the first four-time winner of the 2m4f contest, with Limestone Lad, Solerina and Apple’s Jade having also won the race on three occasions.Sheagain travelled really well at Cheltenham and as she so often does, put the race to bed once quickening around the home bend, from two out. The question is now whether or not she can join Hatton’s Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then and Istabraq in winning the race for a third time. Whilst the mare shows no real signs of waning, it would appear as though she will be facing an excit ing crop of second-season hurdlers this winter.
HURDLERS
He won with ease at the Punchestown Festival, beating Fil Dor for a third successive time in Grade 1 company. It is always a minor concern when a horse constantly beats the same opponent, but we can never really tell how good a juvenile hurdle divi sion was until they meet their elders the following season. On a positive note, the third home from the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle, HMS Seahorse, won a valuable handicap on the Flat at the Curragh during June and was raised from 82 to 101 on the level, which offers up hope. And, the overriding feeling was – certainly from a visual perspective –that Vauban is a cut above your average Triumph winner and although the statistics are very much against him when it comes to the Champion itself, it will be fascinating to see how he fares in the first half of the season. The Morgiana Hurdle – back at Punchestown in November – is a possible start ing point and is a race which his trainer has won 10 times in the past 11 years. The last four-year-old to win that race, however, was Nomadic back in
Vauban will bid to become the third five-yearold Champion Hurdle winner in 37 years. Since See You Then won the first of his three Champi ons in 1985, only Katchit (2008) and the ill-fated Espoir d’Allen (2019) have won for that age group. During this 36-year period, 111 five-year-olds have taken their chance, which highlights the enormity of the task such youngsters face. That said, he was a hugely impressive winner of the Triumph, show ing a fine turn of foot in a slowly-run race and that is key; he is tactically versatile and is a horse who is blessed with plenty of speed. Beaten on debut at Punchestown, his jumping improved when winning the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festi val and he belied his relative inexperience, when winning the Triumph on just his third start.
Grade 1 company at Punchestown, where he won the extended 2m3½f Champion Novice Hurdle by 7 lengths. Ridden patiently, he had too much pace for the opposition, although the strength of that form can be questioned a little, as Three Stripe Life had been to Cheltenham and Aintree and was, therefore, probably a shade below his best. Drop ping back to 2m won’t be an issue – certainly not in a strongly-run race – and it will be interesting to see where Willie Mullins opts to send his son of Doctor Dino, on his first start outside of novice company. The WKD Hurdle at Down Royal would seem an ideal starting point, as it would allow him one more run against similarly experienced horses before being forced into open Grade 1 company. Mullins doesn’t often have horses ready for that fixture, although he did win the race in question with the same connections’ Melon in 2017.
HONEYSUCKLE
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DES CHAMPS WOULD BE A FASCINATING CONTENDER FOR THE
Big-Race
TRENDS
GALOPIN KING GEORGE
– 3m 58y (Premier Handicap)
ALTHOUGH neither of the past two winners fell into this category, this is another early-season handicap which suits the lightly-raced type. 10 of the previous 11 winners had run no more than seven times over hurdles, with eight of the 10 being second-season hurdlers. Seven of the 10 had run fi ve or six times over hurdles previously, so looking for the up-and-comer is (again) a very good starting point.
WITH seven of the past eight winners having run during October or early-November, a preprun seems a defi nite positive. Contesting what is often a strongly-run race over 3m first time out can really test a horse, so having already had one start during the current campaign seems to be the way to go. The only winner during this period to win on reappearance was Baradari, who was making his debut for Dan Skelton, who – as per the Greatwood preview – can ready one after a break.
Another valuable handicap hurdle to take seriously from the early part of the season is Chepstow’s Silver Trophy with both Aubusson and Sam Spinner fi nishing runner-up in the 2m3½f contest prior to winning this Haydock race. Last year’s
BETFAIR STAYERS’EXCHANGEHANDICAP HURDLE
on reappearance appears to be another huge plus of late. Looking a little further back, three of the five winners between 2008 and 2012 won on their previous start, with the other pair winning on seasonal reappearance. Grands Crus was successful under a penalty in 2010 – having won at Cheltenham just six days earlier – although more recently, a couple of penalised runners were beaten at relatively short odds, so tread a little carefully with such runners. Overall, however, respect those who arrive in form.
LIGHTLY-RACED HURDLERS
KEY RACES
Haydock
OF those seven recent winners mentioned in the previous subsection, three had won on their previous start, two had finished runner-up and the other had fi nished third. Therefore, a good performance
OVERVIEW
A COMPETITIVE handicap hurdle over an extended 3m, this was formerly staged over the Fixed Brush hurdles (before they were removed). Last year’s race was unusual, with just 12 horses going to post on unseasonably good ground, as it is often a much larger fi eld and staged on soft ground, meaning stamina is tested. That said, the inside hurdles track at Haydock is fairly sharp these days, so tactical speed to hold a position is key and often the winner has been running over shorter.
BOTH Paisley Park and Stoney Mountain arrived at Haydock on the back of making a winning reappearance in the Jewson Wallasey Handicap Hurdle the previous month and last year’s runner-up – the Dan Skelton-trained Riggs – had finished fifth in the same Aintree contest. The timing between the two races is clearly ideal and running over an intermediate trip beforehand seems to be another positive trend (see the next subsection for further details).
RECENT RUN A DEFINITE POSITIVE
A POSITIVE RECENT RUN REQUIRED
SATURDAY 19TH NOVEMBER 2022 21Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023
KEY TRENDS
10 of the past 13 winners ran over 2m4f –2m5f last time out
NINE of the past 11 winners won from marks ranging between 135 and 143, whilst the likes of Millenium Royal (156), Diamond Harry (149) and Paisley Park (147) all carried top-weight to victory. Main Fact was also rated 147 when winning two years ago and that quartet were the highest-rated winners to date.
WEIGHTS AN OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS
ISABEL Williams became the fourth winning condi tional jockey in the past 11 years, with Main Fact also partnered by Fergus Gillard. Going back a little further, Conor O’Farrell – who dons this year’s front cover – rode Dynaste to success and Lizzie Kelly
Paisley Park and Stoney Mountain had also contested the previous season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle the previous spring, with neither of them troubling the judge.
Only 1 of the 17 winners was rated higher than 149
Only 2 of the 17 winners were older than 7 Only 2 of the past 14 winners returned at odds greater than 12-1
AGE
Irish-trained horses are 0-12
Paul Nicholls is 0-12
Jonjo O’Neill is 0-11
10 of the past 13 winners had run 7 times or less over hurdles (8 of the 10 were secondseason hurdlers)
Nicky Henderson is 0-8
Silver Trophy winner Orbys Legend could finish only seventh, whilst runner-up Didtheyleaveuoutto finished last of 12, but it is another piece of form to respect.Both
Only 4 of the 17 winners carried less than 10-11 (only 2 carried less than 10-9)
AS already touched upon briefly in the previous subsection, horses stepping up in distance boast a good record in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Hand icap Hurdle. Although last year’s winner Dans le Vent was stepping up markedly in distance – having finished runner-up in the Welsh Champion Hurdle over 2m the time before – focusing on horses who ran over an intermediate trip on their previous start has proven to be a fruitful mission, with 10 of the past 13 winners having run over 2m4f – 2m5f last time. As mentioned in the Overview, the sharp hurdles track at Haydock requires a horse who can hold their position and certainly in last year’s race – which was run on good ground – pace at the end of the race was advantageous.
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STEPPING UP IN TRIP
In terms of weights carried, Isabel Williams’ 5lbs claim took last year’s winning weight down to 10-7, making Dans le Vent just the fourth winner to carry below the 10-11 mark. One of those was the penalised Grands Crus , who – in hindsight – was ridiculously well handicapped at the begin ning of the 2010-2011 season. Aside from the three top-weights mentioned in the previous paragraph,
One young horse who is set to be aimed at this race and ticks plenty of boxes – including being in the right rating bracket – is the Fergal O’Brientrained Pull Again Green , who was campaigned over mid-range trips last season and remains very lightly-raced after just five starts. The six-year-old looked progressive in novice company last season and boasts a good profile for the race, although he does like decent ground.
CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS
10 of the past 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 9 of the past 11 winners were rated between 12135-143ofthe 17 winners finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
Trustan Times also shouldered 11-12 to success, but from mark of only 142.
RATHER in-keeping with some of the earlier subsections, the younger horses tend to come to the fore in this event, although last year’s winner was just the second – of the 17 winners to date –to be older than seven. Dans le Vent was winning as an eight-year-old, whilst the oldest winner of the race thus far was the nine-year-old Kruzhlinin The other 15 winners were either five (6), six (5) or seven (4). Between 2009 and 2019, 10 of the 11 winners were aged five or six, which appears to be the prime age group.
12 of the 17 winners had run during October or November (this includes 7 of the past 8 11winners)ofthe17 winners were sent off at single figure odds (nine of those 7-1 or shorter)
4 of the past 11 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
Respect David Pipe
SEVERAL recent winners – most notably Paisley Park and Sam Spinner, who both won the Long Walk Hurdle on their very next start – went on to much bigger and better things, so this is another handicap which can be used as a springboard to Graded events. Obviously, predicting the future isn’t easy, but looking for a horse with the poten tial to be better than a handicapper can be another good approach. Such horses will, of course, invari ably be the lightly-raced types.
PAUL Nicholls boasts the same 0-12 record in this race as the Irish and several of his runners have been sent off fairly prominently in the market. The champion trainer was without a runner last year, but it is a race which he has yet to master.
was successful aboard Aubusson. Although there doesn’t appear to be an overly consistent trend in terms of weights carried, it is interesting that four of the past 11 winners had weight taken off them. This is something which I have highlighted in previous years when looking at the Lanzarote Hurdle and whilst it could simply be coinciden tal, it is worth noting all the same. Clearly a good conditional jockey is valuable in these competitive handicap hurdles.
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On a much more positive note, fellow West Country based trainer David Pipe has won the race on four occasions and was also without a runner in 2021. Main Fact was Pipe’s most recent winner, whilst he won it three times in the space of
Nick Williams is the only other trainer to have won the race more than once, with Diamond Harry and Aubusson. During the summer, he relocated to France, following a split from his long-term part ner Jane Williams, who will now train in partnership alongside her son and stable-jockey, Chester, who is set to become joint-trainer from October.
Since 2010, Pipe’s record reads 4-13, so his chosen runner(s) have to be respected and he also saddled the third in 2015.
TRAINERS TO NOTE
four years between 2010 and 2013, with the greys Grands Crus, Dynaste and Gevrey Chambertin.
THIS is another race in which the Irish have a poor record and have actually yet to win the prize. Two Irish-trained runners took their chance last year, including 11-4 favourite Rightplacerightime, taking the record of such horses to 0-12. Clearly, a dozen runners over 17 years suggests that it isn’t a race that the Irish take too seriously, but nevertheless, the record is one to be wary of.
CLASS ANGLE
Back to the trainers with a poor record in the race, Nicky Henderson remains at 0-8, although hasn’t had a runner since Volnay de Thaix was beaten favourite in 2014, whilst the fifth placing of Flight Deck means that the record of Jonjo O’Neill now stands at 0-11. The closest the latter came was when Holywell finished runner-up in 2012, whilst Henderson has saddled two seconds, Burton Port and Utopie des Bordes.
DAVID PIPE
DANS le Vent was sent off at 16-1 last year and Stoney Mountain won at the same price three years ago, but 11 of the 17 winners were sent off at single figures, with nine of those starting at 7-1 or shorter. Therefore, focusing on the top end of the market has proven successful and since 2008, those two recent 16-1 winners are the only pair who returned at odds greater than 12s, so there hasn’t been many shocks in the race of late.
THE IRISH CHALLENGE
MARKET FORCES
And, although he has yet to win the race, Sandy Thomson deserves a mention, as his two runners in the race have hit the frame. Shades Of Midnight finished second at 20-1 four years ago, whilst Bass Rock finished third last year.
PULL AGAIN GREEN
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ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form Winner Age Weight OR SP Trainer Runners Last Race (No. of days) 2021 2 Dans le Vent 8 10-7 135 16/1 E Williams 12 2nd Welsh Champion Hurdle (35) 2020 Main Fact 7 10-11 147 13/2 D Pipe 17 1st Uttoxeter Hurdle (252) ** 2019 1 Stoney Mountain 6 11-3 138 16/1 H Daly 17 1st Aintree Hurdle (27) 2018 1 Paisley Park 6 11-12 147 4/1 E Lavelle 7 1st Aintree Hurdle (27) 2017 2 Sam Spinner 5 10-9 139 6/1 J O'Keefe 16 2nd Gr.3 Chepstow Hurdle (42) 2016 P3 Kruzhlinin 9 10-13 136 9/1 P Hobbs 13 3rd Aintree Hurdle (14) 2015 Baradari 5 11-2 136 12/1 D Skelton 16 15th Gr.3 Aintree Hurdle (225) 2014 2 Aubusson 5 10-13 141 9/1 N Williams 16 2nd Gr.3 Chepstow Hurdle (28) 2013 Gevrey Chambertin 5 11-7 143 6/1 D Pipe 17 6th Gr.1 Sefton Hurdle (232) 2012 1 Trustan Times 6 11-12 142 10/1 T Easterby 16 1st Wetherby Hurdle (21) LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle 2 (Aubusson 2nd, Sam Spinner 2nd) Jewson Wallasey Handicap Hurdle 2 (Paisley Park 1st, Stoney Mountain 1st) *Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Paisley Park 13th, Stoney Mountain P.U.) * denotes previous season ** Main Fact ran three times on the Flat between 23 Oct and 4 Nov prior to this race
