Bay of Plenty Covid-19 modelling report Date: April 6, 2022
Section A: Notes -
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This week we have slightly changed the long term projections which a heavier tail. They are generated by increasing the amount of interactions people have by 25% in 28 days from today, and then a further 25% after another 28 days. This is intended to offer a scenario that reflects potential changes in the traffic light system. Please note that it these estimates are highly speculative. We have updated the fitted hospitalisation rates from Bay of Plenty & Waikato hospitalisations from February 20 onwards.
Unvac Full Vac Boosted Maori 0-11 0.0199 0.0062 Maori 12-24 0.0166 0.0052 0.0026 Maori 25-44 0.0346 0.0109 0.0054 Maori 45-64 0.0531 0.0169 0.0085 Maori 65-74 0.1838 0.0646 0.0331 Maori 75+ 0.4279 0.1867 0.1022 Other 0-11 0.0105 0.0033 Other 12-24 0.0088 0.0027 0.0014 Other 25-44 0.0184 0.0057 0.0029 Other 45-64 0.0286 0.0089 0.0045 Other 65-74 0.1057 0.0350 0.0177 Other 75+ 0.2818 0.1075 0.0564 Pasifika 0-11 0.0191 0.0060 Pasifika 12-24 0.0160 0.0050 0.0025 Pasifika 25-44 0.0333 0.0105 0.0052 Pasifika 45-64 0.0511 0.0163 0.0081 Pasifika 65-74 0.1778 0.0623 0.0319 Pasifika 75+ 0.4181 0.1807 0.0986 Figure 1. Hospitalisation rates based upon BOP & Waikato data by ethnicity, age band and vaccination status.