Subject: Planning for Omicron in the community Kia ora koutou, As you are aware, Health and other agencies continue to advance planning for the inevitability of Omicron transmission throughout the community. We have strengthened our border controls to prevent incursion and reprioritised whole genome sequencing to quickly identify any community transmission of this variant and if possible ‘stamp out’ ongoing transmission to maximise available planning time observing and learning from what is happening overseas. Omicron in our communities is highly likely sooner rather than later, and we must be prepared to adapt our strategy to a variant which international evidence indicates has a significantly higher transmission rate than the Delta variant. Evidence shows cases doubling every 2 to 4 days and based on this, Omicron will likely spread rapidly across New Zealand and between two to four weeks, become the predominant variant once an Omicron incursion into the community results in an outbreak. It is widely recognised that an Omicron outbreak could occur prior to reconnecting New Zealand with Australia. As such, the Ministry of Health has undertaken a significant amount of planning regarding how we could adapt our COVID-19 Strategy to manage high prevalence transmission in the community - the scenario which Omicron presents. We expect Ministers will act quickly shortly to determine the pathway for New Zealand’s future approach. While there are a number of public health measures which remain available to Ministers, it is recognised that once containment of Omicron is no longer possible our approach will likely have to adapt quickly and will likely require a strategy pivot which focuses on protecting priority populations, ensuring equity, and minimising the impact on society through the protection of critical infrastructure and workforces. This ‘pivot point’ is likely to involve Ministers making rapid decisions about our shift in response mode following a Public Health Risk Assessment on any Omicron community incursion. The key change to the health system response if and when Omicron becomes widespread, will be the transition to a ‘light touch’ model where a larger population of New Zealanders, when able, will need to isolate and care for themselves and their whanau. This will allows the health response to focus its efforts and resources on protecting those priority populations, ensuring equity and protecting critical infrastructure and workforces. This means that, in the event of widespread Omicron outbreak, there will be changes to how testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine will work. This advice is with Ministers and while the specifics are unable to be provided it is broadly acknowledged that even with the benefits of a highly vaccinated population, the characteristics of Omicron, would require a shift to this ‘lighter touch’ model. Efforts to recommunicate key messages around mask wearing, physical distancing, handwashing etc… are underway. Vaccinations for 5-11 year olds begin today and the booster program continues at pace. Messaging around these progresses. Discussions with agencies to reinforce the importance of BCP’s have and will continue to take place. Additionally, digital systems are in development to support a ‘lighter touch’ model. I understand the desire to move forward rapidly with any changes however, the importance of Ministers agreeing any pivot in strategy is paramount for the legitimacy and legality of our response. The urgency of considered decisions is however well recognised. There is also an acute awareness that effectively communicating any pivot in New Zealand’s approach is essential to the outcome.
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