Commodity Research Report 21 November 2016 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIU 30-NOV-2016 118 M

117

116

115

114

113

112

111

110

30-NOV-2016 392

385

378

374

371

367

364

357

350

CRUDE OIL 18-NOV-2016 3323

3245

3167

3139

3089

3061

3011

2933

2855

GOLD

05-DEC-2016 29512 29312 29112 29025 28912 28825 28712 28512

28312

LEAD

30-NOV-2016 157

153

149

147

145

143

141

137

133

NATURAL 25-NOV-2015 220 GAS

210

200

197

190

187

180

170

160

795

771

755

747

731

723

699

675

COPPER

EXPIRY

NICKEL

30-NOV-2016 819

SILVER

05-DEC-2016 41909 41401 40893 40641 40385 40133 39877 39369

ZINC

30-NOV-2016 187

182

177

174

172

169

167

38861

162

157

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM 30-NOV-2016

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

134

128

122

118

116

112

110

104

98

COPPER

30-NOV-2016

432

412

392

382

372

362

352

332

312

CRUDE OIL

15-NOV-2016

3893

3612

3331

3221

3050

2940

2769

2488

2207

GOLD

05-DEC-2016 31839 30941 30043 29490 29145 28592 28247 27349

26451

LEAD

30-NOV-2016

170

162

154

149

146

141

138

130

122

NATURAL GAS NICKEL

25-NOV-2015

231

217

203

198

189

184

175

161

147

30-NOV-2016

862

825

788

764

751

727

714

677

640

SILVER ZINC

05-DEC-2016 45383 43833 42283 41335 40733 39785 39183 37633 30-NOV-2016

206

195

184

178

173

167

162

36083

151

Monday, 21 November 2016

140

WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL ALUMINIUM 115.60 TGT 113.60 SL 117.20 SELL CRUDEOIL DEC BELOW 3160 TGT 3080 SL 3220 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY ZINC NOV ABOVE 170 TGT 173 SL 167 - TGT BUY NATURAL GAS NOV ABOVE 183 TGT 192 SL 175 - TGT ✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

68

67.90

67.80

USDINR

26-OCT2016 68.60 68.50 68.40 68.30 68.20 68.10

EURINR

26-OCT2016 72.80 72.70 72.60 72.50 72.40 72.30 72.20 72.10

GBPINR

26-OCT2016 85.10 85

JPYINR

26-OCT2016 62.20 62.10

84.90 84.80 84.70 84.60 84.50 84.40 62

61.90 61.80 61.70 61.60 61.50

72 84.30 61.40

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016 68.90 68.70 68.50 68.30 68.10 67.90 67.70 67.50

67.30

EURINR

26-OCT2016 73.10 72.90 72.70 72.50 72.30 72.10 71.90 71.70

71.50

GBPINR

26-OCT2016 85.40 85.20

83.80

JPYINR

26-OCT2016 62.50 62.30 62.10 61.90 61.70 61.50 61.30 61.10

85

84.80 84.60 84.40 84.20

WEEKLY FOREX CALL SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 68.10 TGT 67.30 SL 68.70 SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 84.10 TGT 83.10 SL 85.05 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GBPINR NOV ABOVE 85 TGT 86 SL 84 - NOT EXECUTED BUY EURINR NOV ABOVE 63.60 TGT 64.40 SL 62.90 - NOT EXECUTED

84

60.90

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2016

693

678 665 655

650

647

643

639

636

SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2016

3269 3236 3189 3093 3058

3019

2985

2955

2936

RMSEED

20-DEC-2016

4837 4783 4729 4709 4675

4655

4621

4567

4513

17180 16740

16300

JEERAUNJH A

20-DEC-2016 18940 1850 1806 1788 17620 17440 0 0 0

GUARSEED10 20-DEC-2016 TMC

R2

20-DEC-2016

3594 3484 3374 3324 3264

3214

3154

3044

2934

7310 7228 7146 7112 7064

7030

6982

6900

6818

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

727

711

695

689

679

673

663

647

631

SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-2016 3388 3268 3203 3172 3107

3052

3002

2957

2795

4562

4500

4397

4294

JEERAUNJH 20-DEC-2016 20890 19615 1834 17830 17065 16555 15790 14515 A 0

13240

GUARSEED10 20-DEC-2016 3922 3689 3456 3365 3223

DATE SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-2016

RMSEED

TMC

20-DEC-2016

4912 4809 4706 4665 4603

20-DEC-2016 7961 7635 7309 7193 6983

3132

2990

2757

2524

6867

6657

6331

6005

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3294 TGT 3203 SL 3353 BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 17500 TGT 17900 SL 17100 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GUARSEED DEC ABOVE 3200 TGT 3300 SL 3100 - TGT BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 16900 TGT 17400 SL 16494 - TGT

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ BULLION Gold prices fell to the lowest level since May on Friday as the dollar rallied to almost 14-year highs amid a rally driven by the U.S. presidential election and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange hit lows of $1,202.05 a troy ounce and settled down 0.74% at $1,207.9, the lowest close since June 3. Gold prices were pressured lower as the dollar continued to surge following the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, tracking rising U.S. Treasury yields amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut taxes will spur economic growth and inflation. Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 101.41 late Friday, its highest close since April 2003. Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies as the dollar rises. The dollar rally has also been boosted by bets that the U.S. central bank will almost certainly raise interest rates next month. Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday reiterated that a rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.” Investors have assigned a 95.4% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery settled down 1.32% at $16.55 a troy ounce, having fallen to its lowest level since June 8 at $16.43 earlier. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery settled at $2.46 a pound on the Comex.

Gold hit its lowest since late May on Friday as the dollar surged to a near 14-year peak on expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month and higher fiscal spending from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. The dollar is on track for its best fortnight since 1988 against the yen, and hit its highest since early 2003 versus a basket of currencies, as Trump's win stoked talk of tax cuts and fresh investment in infrastructure to boost the U.S. economy. That weighed on gold, which is priced in dollars, sending it to its lowest since May 30 at $1,203.52 an ounce. It pulled back some lost ground as the dollar steadied against the euro in early afternoon trade, tracking a retreat in bond yields, but remained under pressure. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.3 percent at $1,211.98 an ounce at 1500 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCv1 for December delivery were down $5.00 an ounce at $1,211.90, off a low of $1,201.30, their weakest since mid-February.

"Given these headwinds, gold is holding its own relatively well at the moment," Commerzbank Analyst Daniel Briesemann said. "You could easily argue for lower prices, given the sharp appreciation of the dollar and the sharp rise in bond yields." Spot prices have fallen more than 1 percent this week and are down by more than $130 an ounce from their post-election peak, hurt by

the jump in the dollar and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. bond yields were set for their biggest fortnightly rise in 15 years on Friday on bets U.S. inflation and interest rates are headed higher. That increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in congressional testimony that Trump's election has done nothing to change the Fed's plans for a rate increase "relatively soon". of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares GLD , fell by 5.6 tonnes on Thursday to their lowest since June. Holdings have fallen by nearly 30 tonnes since the U.S. election. GOL/ETF."With the pressure that has been seen in gold prices since early November, total ETF holdings in gold have fallen to their lowest level since early July 2016," ING said in a note. "Further outflows could put further pressure on gold prices." Silver XAG= was down 0.1 percent at $16.65 an ounce, having touched its lowest since June 8 at $16.42, while platinum XPT= was 1.1 percent lower at $920.74. Both metals were set for a second consecutive weekly decline. Palladium XPD= was down 1.3 percent at $717.30 an ounce, but set for a third weekly rise, of more than 6 percent. The metal has benefited from strength in industrial metals, on hopes that higher U.S. infrastructure spending could boost demand.

� ENERGY Oil prices rose around 1 percent on Monday as producer cartel OPEC moved closer to an output cut to rein oversupply that has kept prices low for over two years. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $47.35 per barrel at 0023 GMT, up 49 cents, or 1.05 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 0.98 percent, or 44 cents, at $46.14 a barrel. Traders said that markets were being supported by advancing plans by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production in a bid to prop up the market following over two years of low prices as a result of output exceeding demand. Such a deal has proved tricky to agree as some producers, most notably Iran, have been reluctant to cut output. But an agreement has become more likely as Iran, keen to increase output after international sanctions against it were lifted last January, was expected to be given an exemption if it agrees to cap its production rather than cutting it, leaving the onus of a an outright reduction on other OPECmembers, including its political rival and de-facto OPEC-leader Saudi Arabia. a result, Barclays said that some form of production cut deal was likely, but the bank added that any such agreement might have little impact on markets. "We expect OPEC to agree to a face-saving statement," the British bank said, but added that "U.S. tight oil producers can grow production at $50-55 Per barrel and will capitalize on any opportunity afforded to them by an OPEC cut". Beyond the talk of a potential production cut, there were also signs of ongoing market weakness. Japan, the world's fourth biggest oil consumer, on Monday reported a fall of 9.5 percent in crude oil imports in October from the same month a year earlier, to 2.78 million barrels per day.

Oil prices settled higher on Friday, closing out a strong week that saw crude buoyed by growing expectations that OPEC will find a way to cap production at the end of the month. For the week,

Brent and U.S. crude both rose roughly 5 percent, their first weekly gains in about a month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is moving closer to finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit output, with most members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said. has been the main stumbling block for capping production. While it has not yet responded to the proposal, the flexibility shown by others suggests OPEC members may be coming nearer to consensus as the Nov. 30 meeting approaches. Brent LCOc1 notched a daily rise of 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $46.86 per barrel. Brent also had its first weekly increase in five weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 27 cents, or 0.6 percent, for the day, at $45.69 a barrel. It posted its first weekly increase in four. Crude has been moving up and down based on statements by OPEC members ahead of its Nov. 30 meeting, said James L. Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas. "It kind of depends on which side of the bed the OPEC ministers wake up," he said of oil prices. "People keep digesting and re-digesting the news." Williams said prices could fall below $40 if OPEC does not reach a deal on Nov. 30.

Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday, then fell as much as 1 percent in the after-market session as a stronger dollar outweighed expectations of an OPEC deal to limit production. Oil started the day in the positive, with U.S. crude briefly up by as much as $1, on optimism that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reach an agreement to cap production at its meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said he was optimistic about OPEC's deal to limit oil output, while Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said OPEC members are ready to reach a "forceful" agreement, following a meeting with OPEC SecretaryGeneral. prices fell after the dollar index .DXY tapped a 13-1/2-year high on strong U.S. economic data and comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that bolstered the case for hiking interest rates next month. USD/ stronger dollar makes the greenback-denominated crude more expensive for holders of other currencies. "The strength in the dollar, that rate hike being priced in, is more of a concrete thing than the rumors and murmurs and ongoing rhetoric related to OPEC," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at energy data provider ClipperData. Brent crude LCOc1 settled down 14 cents a barrel at $46.49, before falling further to $46.12 by 3:21 p.m. , down 51 cents, or 1.1 percent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 closed 15 cents lower at $45.42. It fell in post-settlement by 56 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $45,01. The market was also still under pressure from U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday that showed a larger-than-expected crude build of 5.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 11. at the U.S. delivery hub for crude futures in Cushing, Oklahoma, which the EIA said increased nearly 700,000 barrels last week, rose 303,001 barrels in the week to Nov. 15, according to traders, citing energy monitoring service Genscape.

Crude inventories were also rising elsewhere, thanks to record output by OPEC, which pumps around 40 percent of world oil supply.

"The name of the game is 'volatility' as confusing signals are arriving before OPEC meets," said Tamas Varga, senior analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. "We have evidence of

oversupply - U.S. stocks rising - versus hopes for some action by OPEC." � BASE METAL Copper stood out among the hottest commodities in the past one month, as prices of the base metal surged nearly 20 per cent on hopes of improving demand from top consumer China and a steady decline in stocks at warehouses. The rally was fuelled by optimism over robust demand from the US on expectation of increased infrastructure spending under president-elect Donald Trump.

Trump has pledged to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure over the next 10 years, which has fuelled demand expectation.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange , prices of the commodity jumped from Rs 311 a kg on October 17 to Rs 368.70 a kg. However, market experts believe the rally is now overdone and there could be some correction by mid-December. In the runup to the US presidential election, copper prices rose in anticipation of Hillary Clinton’s victory. In fact, copper prices surpassed the crucial $5000 per tonne psychological mark on the London Metal Exchange on November 7, a day prior to the election. But the most surprising thing was that the metal moved 7 per cent higher in the international markets in a matter of just three days on November 8-10 despite the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election. However, on MCX, copper prices surged 10 per cent to Rs 373.60 on November 11 from Rs 339.75 on November 8.

Copper prices fell by 1.11 per cent to Rs 365.95 per kg in futures trade today as participants indulged in reducing positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas. Besides, subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market weighed on prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month contracts declined by Rs 4.10, or 1.11 per cent, to Rs 365.95 per kg in a business turnover of 1,050 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in farmonth February next month traded lower by Rs 3.80, or 1.01 per cent, to Rs 371.65 per kg in 21 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of a weak trend as most industrial metals fell globally as speculators in China took their foot off the pedal and the stronger dollar deterred investors from buying commodities, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.

Globally, copper for three-month delivery fell 2.3 per cent to USD 5,400.50 per tonne at the London Metal Exchange Lead prices were down 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in futures trading today as participants reduced their exposure, triggered by subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market and weak global cues. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in November month declined by 40 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in business turnover of 24 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.19 per cent to Rs 134.85 per kg in 483 lots.

Marketmen said the weakness in lead futures was due to a sluggish demand from battery-makers at

the domestic markets, apart from weak global cues after China's exports unexpectedly declined, raising global demand outlook.

Zinc futures fell by 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg today as speculators indulged in reducing positions amid a weak trend in base metals overseas and low spot demand. Zinc for delivery in current month shed 45 paise or 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of 734 lots. The metal for delivery in November too fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 151.10 per kg in 23 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in zinc futures to cutting down of bets by participants, tracking weakness in base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange amid concerns over China's economy.

Nickel prices dropped by Rs 7.80 to Rs 767.70 per kg in futures trade today as traders cut down their bets, taking weak cues from the domestic spot markets due to muted demand even as metal strengthened overseas. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in December month was trading Rs 7.80, or 1.01 per cent, down at Rs 767.70 per kg in a business turnover of 20 lots.

The metal for delivery in current month also shed Rs 7.10 or 0.92 per cent, to Rs 762.80 per kg in a turnover of 588 lots. Analysts said the fall in nickel prices in futures trade is mostly attributed to a weak trend at the domestic spot markets due to low demand but strength in metal at the London Metal Exchange , capped the fall.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

� SUGAR Sugar Futures surged last week due to anticipation sugar shortage as Farmer bodies in Maharashtra have threaten to disrupt cane crushing season on issue of the cane pricing. However, closed more than 1% down Friday on news that mills have produced higher compared to last year. The most-active December sugar contract closed 4.5% higher last week to settle at 3,516 per quintal. As per ISMA, Sugar mills have produced 15,000 tonnes more till November 15 this year at 7.87 lakh tonne against 7.72 lakh tonne in the same period last year. Sugar production has increased marginally on account of early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka As per ISMA’s first media release, the carryover stock as on 1st October is pegged at 77 lt and production is estimated at 234 lt in 2016-17 SS. Therefore, total sugar available in the country during 2016-17 SS would be around 311 lt, against the estimated consumption of 255 lt. During 2016-17 SS, Maharashtra mills delayed their starting so as to get the cane matured further to get better sugar recovery from standing cane. These mills are now expected to start crushing from 5th November, 2016. Similarly, Gujarat mills are expected to start this week. Moreover, government is looking to enhance domestic supplies by reduce import duty if the prices domestic

market increase. Central government is exploring the option of lowering the 40% import duty on the sweetener in its raw form. Due to droughts, sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to drop nearly 40% to 5 mt in the 2016/17 season started on Oct. 1 compared with a year earlier. ✍ SOYABEAN Soybean futures closed higher last week as market participants have bought soybean at lower levels. The most-active Dec’16 delivery contract closed 1.55% higher last week to settle at Rs. 3,078 per quintal. There is lower supplies in the physical market as there is cash as well as supply crunch in all the APMC mandi Recently, SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 soybean output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier. The spot prices have dropped below the MSP in some places in States of MP, Maha and Gujarat. The harvesting of soybean in full swing and supplies are strong in the physical market. ✍ RAPE/MUSTURED SEED Mustard seed futures closed higher last week due to boost in winter demand and increase in Minimum Support prices (MSP). Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16- 17 which includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. The Dec’16 contract ended 0.26% higher settle at Rs. 4,566/quintal. However, rapid start to rabi sowing of mustard seed in Rajasthan also pressurize the prices. As per agriculture ministry data, all-India acreage of mustard in the ongoing rabi season was nearly 50.8 lh as on Nov 18 up 19.5% from a year ago.

Till Nov 04, the Rajasthan, planted 16 lakh ha, up 39% from a year ago similarly acreage sharply increase in Uttar Pradesh, where mustard is sown in 7.15 lh, up 321% from a year ago. In MP, the oilseed was sown over 69,000 ha, up 86.5% from 37,000 ha sown a year ago. As per the latest USDA monthly report, global rapeseed production for 2016/17 is forecast higher at 67.81 mt in Nov. compared to 67.6 mt in October and down 3.4% from 2015/16. ✍ REFINED SOYA OIL Refined soy oil futures closed higher last week due increase in tariff value by government of India for second half of November. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec’16 expiry contract closed 1.22% higher last week to settle at Rs. 684.2 per quintal. The tariff value of crude soyoil were raised by $13 per tn to $866 which was the fourth increase in two month by the government.

Since , January 2016, the base import prices for crude soy oil increase by more than 20.3% from $720 per tonnes. As per SEA data, India September crude soyoil import 469,564 tonnes, an increase of 46 % compared to 321,062 tonnes year ago while, India Nov-Sep crude soyoil import 3.96 mt vs 2.58 mt – an increase of 53% y/y for the current oil year (Nov-Oct).

✍ JEERA Jeera futures closed higher last week due to expectation of tight supplies and fresh export enquiries. Moreover, the stock positionswith the exchange and stockists are also diminishing.

NCDEX Dec’16 Jeera closed 4.62% higher to close at Rs 17,320 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have picked up. In Gujarat, Jeera sowing completed around 36,600 hectares as compared to last year same period 18,000 hectares, as on 14th Nov. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 16 November 2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur is 57 MT and Unjha 956 MT. Last year stocks were 1340 tonnes in Jodhpur and 5330 tonnes in Unjha.

According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to last year same period. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%. ✍ TURMERIC Turmeric futures continue to recover from the lower levels last week due to good demand and lower level buying by the market participants. The reports of good production from new season crops pressurize prices earlier in the week. Turmeric Dec’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 0.46% higher to settle at Rs 7,032 per quintal. Currently the supplies are for medium and poor quality during the rest of the season till new crop arrived which may keep the prices sideways to higher. It is expected that the demand from the industrial buyers will support the prices just before new season harvesting. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-August period up by 32% compared last year, as government data.

Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year.

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