Report 1 - ongoing evaluation of the New Work Connections project

Ongoing evaluation of the New Work Connections Project Report 1: Inception report and evaluation framework June 2012

Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

Report prepared by: Endaf Griffiths Simon Hartwell Louise Petrie Richard Brooks Any queries or questions about this report should be referred in the first instance to Endaf Griffiths at Wavehill: t: 01545 571711 | e: endaf.griffiths@wavehill.com Client contact: Melanie Evans, Regional Manager, New Work Connections t: 01745 353494 | e: melanie.evans@denbighshire.gov.uk Report version: FINAL

Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

Contents 1.

2.

Introduction .......................................................................................................... 2 Overview of the project and the purpose of the evaluation ...................................... 3 2.1.

2.2.

2.3.

2.4.

3.

Project management and delivery structures........................................................... 8 3.1.

3.2.

3.3.

3.4.

3.5.

3.6.

4.

Recession in Wales ........................................................................................................... 22 The Policy Context ........................................................................................................... 27 Targeted Groups: changes in need ................................................................................... 37

Evaluation framework...........................................................................................45 5.1.

5.2.

6.

Regional team and structure .............................................................................................. 8 Anglesey .......................................................................................................................... 10 Gwynedd ......................................................................................................................... 12 Conwy .............................................................................................................................. 14 Denbighshire .................................................................................................................... 18 Monitoring data and systems ........................................................................................... 21

Policy and strategy context and update ..................................................................22 4.1.

4.2.

4.3.

5.

The project......................................................................................................................... 3 Funding .............................................................................................................................. 5 Performance indicators ...................................................................................................... 6 The evaluation ................................................................................................................... 7

Part 1: Process evaluation – how was the project managed and delivered?...................... 46 Part 2: Outcomes evaluation – what has the project achieved? ........................................ 50

Outline timetable .................................................................................................56

Appendix 1: Selected context statistics .........................................................................58

Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

1. Introduction Taith i Waith / New Work Connections is a 4-year European funded project aimed at supporting people who, through a range of disadvantages, are economically inactive or unemployed. The project has been active since March 2010 and covers the four North Wales local authority areas of Anglesey, Conwy, Denbighshire and Gwynedd.

This is the first report of the independent evaluation of the project, which is being undertaken alongside its delivery over the next two years by social research and evaluation specialists Wavehill.

It has been prepared at the end of the first phase of the evaluation during which a range of documentation relating to the project has been reviewed and a number of scoping interviews have been undertaken with key members of staff and stakeholders. Its principle purpose is to introduce the project and to set out how the evaluation will be undertaken.

The remainder of the report is set out as follows: • • • • •

Section 2 provides an overview of the Taith i Waith / New Work Connections project and purpose of the evaluation; Section 3 briefly sets out the regional and local authority level structures in place to deliver project; Section 4 reviews some of the latest key policies and strategies in Wales that will influence project; Section 5 sets out the evaluation framework that will provide the basis for the work of evaluation team; and Finally, Section 6 summarises the fieldwork to be undertaken by the evaluation team.

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the the the the

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

2. Overview of the project and the purpose of the evaluation This section provides the background and context for the remainder of the report by introducing the New Work Connections project together with the aims and objectives of the evaluation.

Section summary • • • • •

New Work Connections was approved as a £26 million four-year project aimed at supporting people who, through a range of disadvantages, are economically inactive or unemployed.

The project is part funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) programme in Wales.

The headline output target for the project is to provide support to 4,555 participants all of whom will be either economically inactive or unemployed.

In terms of results, targets have been set for the number of participants entering employment (20%), gaining qualifications (56%), entering further learning (20%) and gaining other positive benefits (89%).

The principal aim of the evaluation is to determine whether NWC has achieved its objectives, including its effectiveness, impact and sustainability.

2.1. The project Taith i Waith / New Work Connections (hereafter referred to as NWC) is a European funded project aimed at supporting people who, through a range of project disadvantages, are economically inactive or unemployed. The project has been active since March 2010 and covers the four North Wales local authority areas of Anglesey, Conwy, Denbighshire and Gwynedd as shown on the map on the right.

A brief video introducing the project can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_YkFCmChEg The services that Local Authority Social Services Departments provide do not normally include support to aid individuals to pursue training and employment and NWC was developed to address that gap. The eligibility criteria used for participation in the project is as follows: Individuals must not be: • •

Referred onto the Work Programme 1 A Work Choice participant 2

1

A Department for Work and Pensions scheme that provides tailored support for claimants who need more help to undertake active and effective job-seeking. http://www.dwp.gov.uk/policy/welfare-reform/the-work-programme/ 2 A government supported employment programme designed specifically for people who due to their disability, may find it difficult to find or keep a job. http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/DisabledPeople/Employmentsupport/workschemesandprogrammes/DG_187696

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

Individuals must be: • • •

16 years old or over and living in the Local Authority Area Economically inactive or unemployed Legally resident in the UK and able to take employment in a European Union Member State

Plus at least one from the list below: • • • • • • • • • • •

Facing significant challenges obtaining employment, education and training Have a work limiting health condition Aged 16-18 and not in education, employment or training (NEET) Have a physical disability or sensory impairment Have a learning disability or learning difficulty Have mental health needs Older People (50 or over) Lone parent with sole caring responsibility for a child/children Women returning to work Have caring responsibilities Black Minority Ethnic (BME)

The project team also reserves the right to use its own discretion to deal with individual cases. The following are described as ‘principles’ of eligible activity: • • • • •

Directly concerned with bringing the participant closer to the labour market Requires a meaningful level of engagement; that is not merely transfer of information or attendance at a conference Participant hours are recorded Participant outcomes are recorded Provision is not one which the government is statutorily committed to provide (whether or not such provision is available/accessible for the participant)

The range of activities provided to participants by NWC includes: • • • • • • • • • •

Initial engagement – a single point of access to accept referrals into the project and register potential participants; Undertaking detailed assessments of individual participants and determining the most appropriate service based on these; Preparing individual education, training and employment plans; Providing intensive support regarding job finding and preparation for jobs; Providing packages of support such as financial assistance or help with clothing and/or equipment; Providing expert advice and support on the financial benefits of being employed and dealing with concerns about moving from reliance on benefits; Supporting, mentoring and tracking each participant throughout his or her progress in the project, and maintaining regular contact; Supporting individuals at each step as they progress on a journey towards education, training and / or employment; Encouraging and supporting employers to provide more job opportunities for people from disadvantaged groups; and Encouraging and supporting employers to adopt or improve equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

The business plan submitted to the Wales European Funding Office (WEFO)3 states that the project is innovative because: • • • • • •

This will be the first time that Local Authority Social Services Departments from North Wales have worked together in addressing the employment needs of disadvantaged groups; There will be much greater emphasis on helping older people and people who have a learning disability to move on to mainstream employment; The project wants achieve a much higher profile for addressing employment needs when people with social care needs become engaged with Social Services and partner agencies; There will be a more flexible, community based approach to learning/employment which will engage those excluded from mainstream provision; The project intends to recruit a number of older people as mentors to support young people with pursuing particular trades or employment; and The project will introduce a change of culture for many participants from one of dependency to one of sustainable personal development.

2.1.1. Re-profiling NWC has been subject to two re-profiling exercises firstly in February 2011 and then again in July 20114. The first re-profile was largely the result of delays in WEFO’s final approval of the project and the subsequent knock-on impact of the recruitment of new staff and so on. The primary cause of the second re-profile was changes to the context within which the project was being delivered including the recession and introduction of the Department for Work and Pension’s Work Programme (discussed in section 4 of this report). These re-profiling exercises affected both the project budget and the targets that had been set in order to measure the performance of the project. In order to illustrate the extent of the re-profiling that has occurred, the tables that follow show the original as well as revised 5 project costs and targets.

2.2. Funding As shown in the table below, NWC is part funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) programme in Wales.

Table 2.1: NWX project costs, ESF and match-funding

Total Project Cost ESF funding Match funding

Original £26,397,667 £13, 804,549 £12,593,118

Revised* £20,468,700 £10,747,678 £9,721,022

Source: NWC Regional Team *subject to final approval by WEFO at the time of this report.

3

WEFO is part of the Welsh Government and manages the delivery of EU Structural Funds programmes in Wales. http://wefo.wales.gov.uk 4 At the time of writing this report the July 2011 re-profiling was pending final approval by WEFO. 5 Subject to final approval by WEFO.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

The West Wales and the Valleys region has been awarded the highest level of support known as Convergence, from the European Union for the Structural Funds programming round 2007–2013.

The ESF programme will utilise around 40% of the resources from the total Convergence Programme. This means a grant contribution of around £690 million and, coupled with match funding, a total investment of approximately £1.2 billion for the 2007-2013 funding period.

NWC is funded under Priority 2, Theme 1 of the ESF programme. The aim of Priority 2 (Increasing employment and tackling economic inactivity) is to raise levels of employment and economic activity, and secure higher participation in the labour market. It will do this through the delivery of two themes. Theme 1 (under which NWC is funded) aims to increase employment and tackle economic inactivity by bringing more people into employment. Theme 2 is focused on helping people to remain in work.

Sources of ‘match-funding’ for the NWC project consist of: • • •

funding provided by the four local authorities through their own direct service provision; funding brought to the project by service providers, as part of the procurement requirements (please refer to Section 3); and the time of volunteers engaged in external service provision.

2.3. Performance indicators The table below shows the targets that have been set for the NWC project (original and revised 6).

The targets are split into outputs (the activities to be undertaken) and results (the immediate or direct results of the activities).

Table 2.2: NWC project headline performance indicators

Results

Outputs

Performance indicators

Total Participants (economically inactive and unemployed) Employers assisted or financially supported Participants entering employment Participants gaining qualifications Participants entering further learning Participants gaining other positive outcomes Participants receiving support with caring responsibilities Employers adopting or improving equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems

Original

Revised

5,248

4,555

65

60

1,034 2,875 788 2,668 0

896 2,553 907 4,056 290

20% 56% 20% 89% 6%

60

43

72%

Results as a % of outputs

Source: NWC Regional Team

The headline output target for NWC is to provide support to 4,555 participants all of whom will be either economically inactive or unemployed. The project is also expected to assist 60 employers during its lifetime.

6

The revised targets were subject to final approval by WEFO at the time of this report.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

In terms of results, targets have been set for the number of participants entering employment (20% of all participants), gaining qualifications (56%), entering further learning (20%), gaining other positive outcomes (89%) and receiving support with caring responsibilities (6%). A target has also been set for the number of employers adopting or improving their equality and diversity strategies and monitoring system as a result of the support provided (72%).

2.4. The evaluation The principal aim of the evaluation of NWC is to determine whether the project has achieved its objectives, including its effectiveness, impact and sustainability.

The evaluation is split into two separate yet overlapping parts: • •

Process: How well is the project being managed and delivered? What, if anything, can be improved? What have been the main lessons learnt?

Outcomes: What has the project achieved? What has been the impact of the project on the participants and employers engaged? Most importantly, has the project achieved its aims and objectives?

The methodology being used is based on the concept of viewing evaluation as a learning process and creating a strong link between the evaluation and activity – i.e. evaluation can have a direct and early effect on improving performance.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

3. Project management and delivery structures This section provides an overview of the structures that are in place to manage and delivery the NWC project regionally and in the four local authority areas highlighting the differences in the four areas.

Section summary • •

The NWC Regional Team, based within Denbighshire County Council, manages, coordinates and oversees the NWC project in each of the four Local Authority areas.

Whilst the NWC project teams in each area are working towards the same outcomes, the way in which the project is managed and delivered in each Local Authority area differs significantly.

3.1. Regional team and structure The NWC Regional Team, based within Denbighshire County Council, manages, coordinates and oversees the NWC project in each of the four Local Authority areas. The Regional Team includes: • • • •

New Work Connections Lead (the overall lead officer for the project) Regional Manager Regional Finance Officer Regional Project Admin Officer

The NWC project regional management structure is illustrated by the graphic below. At the head of the structure is the Regional Partnership Board that brings together NWC staff from the four Local Authority areas and the Regional Team. Local Authority level ‘delivery groups’ sit beneath the Regional Partnership Board and steer the project on a local authority level.

Figure 3.1: Project management structure

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

A number of ‘sub-group’ have been established to undertake and coordinate specific tasks on a regional basis (Figure 3.2): • • • •

Regional Stakeholder Advisory Group (to be established); Regional Exit Strategy Group; Regional Database Steering Group; and Regional Work Star Steering Group7.

Again, these sub-groups draw together staff from across the region.

Figure 3.2: Regional project structure

7 Work Star is the tool being used by the project to monitor the ‘soft outcomes’ being generated and the progress towards the employment by participants that cannot be recorded via the other performance indicators being recorded.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

3.2. Anglesey The table below shows the total cost of the NWC project in Anglesey as well as the proportion of ESF and match funding.

Table 3.1: NWC Anglesey project costs, ESF and match-funding

Total Project Cost Match funding ESF funding

Funding £5,184,643 £2,591,661 £2,592,982

Source: NWC Regional Team

The following graphic illustrates the structure in place to manage and deliver NWC is Anglesey. The graphic shows both the posts that are funded by the project (in blue) and those which are being funded by the Local Authority and used to provide the necessary ‘match funding’ (in red).

Figure 3.3: The NWC management and delivery structure in Anglesey

The NWC team in Anglesey includes 27 members of staff in total (including ‘match funding’ staff).

The project operates from three ‘bases’: • • •

Canolfan Byron - a multipurpose building with workshop, loan stores, etc; The Priory at Holyhead - a mental health facility; and Gerddi Haulfre (Llangoed) – a centre providing vocational training and experience in horticulture with a view to open employment.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

Motiv8 is the first step to engage clients by offering things like the gardening, Click Club (camera and walking group) and fishing; activities designed to simply engage with and build up the confidence of participants.

Much of NWC project support is ‘activity based’ offering a variety of training activities such as upholstery, craft, gardening, history, music, Welsh courses, fishing and so on. Much of the focus has been on engagement and a ‘low ability’ client base. The project is however increasingly targeting those who are considered to be closer to the employment market and NWC’s specific target groups.

A number of the services provided have been procured by the Local Authority: •

• • •

A Disability Forum - a set of activities built around families and people within the project target group. It seeks to address issues relating to the ‘rurality’ of the island, bringing people in to look at what activities people want to be engaged with and also offering advocacy and signposting people to appropriate provision. This element is mainly focused on people with disabilities that restrict their ability to live independent lives. e-trading – provision of basic IT training from community venues.

Travel contract - covering all issues to do with travel, people who cannot get out of the house to get a bus, driving lessons, and independent travel - anything and everything to do with travel.

Employer engagement - CV writing, interview skills, work placements and so on.

At the time of writing this report, one other service was in the process of being procured, dependent on clearance from WEFO; a service that would specifically targets interventions for those aged over 50.

The headline performance indicators for NWC Anglesey are: Table 3.2: NWC Anglesey project headline performance indicators

Results

Outputs

Performance indicators

Total Participants (economically inactive and unemployed)

Target

1,229

Results as a % of outputs

Employers assisted or financially supported

20

Participants entering employment Participants gaining qualifications Participants entering further learning Participants gaining other positive outcomes Participants receiving support with caring responsibilities Employers adopting or improving equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems

248 700 243 927 0

20% 57% 18% 75% 0%

10

50%

Source: NWC Regional Team

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

3.3. Gwynedd The table below shows the total cost of the NWC project in Gwynedd as well as the proportion of ESF and match funding.

Table 3.3: NWC Gwynedd project costs, ESF and match-funding

Total Project Cost Match funding ESF funding

Funding £3,431,992 £1,775,083 £1,656,909

Source: NWC Regional Team

NWC in Gwynedd differs significantly from the other Local Authority areas as it focuses exclusively on helping the journey of economically inactive and unemployed individuals with predominantly mental health problems into employment, training and volunteering opportunities and/selfemployment.

NWC in Gwynedd is also based within the Economic Development Department of the Local Authority rather than the Social Services Department which is where the project in based in all other areas.

The rational for this is (a) the focus on moving participants towards employment is seen as an economic goal, and (b) the Economic Development Department of Gwynedd Council has significantly greater experience of managing the delivery of European funded projects than the Social Services Department. The NWC project officers and support officers are however located within social services teams in order to ensure that the support provided by NWC is fully integrated with social services activities.

The following graphic illustrates the management and delivery structure in Gwynedd, which - if all match funding staff are taken into account - includes 30 staff: Figure 3.4: The NWC management and delivery structure in Gwynedd

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

The following outlines the key activities provided by the project in Gwynedd: Training and employment Preparation of bespoke training, mentoring, employment and plan (NWC Project career plans in conjunction with external agencies, providing child Officers) care and additional family care and transport if required to overcome any barriers to returning to training or employment.

Provision of taster training sessions in for example: raising confidence and motivation, sleep and anger management.

Specialist services Personal assessment and advice about benefit and financial (Procured services) management, short courses and accredited courses (e.g. OCN) to develop appropriate work skills and qualifications among service users and an employability training package which will include vital qualifications in e.g. Food Hygiene, Health & Safety, First Aid, Customer Care and Manual Handling to ensure they have the key skills that potential large employers need in the future.

All these elements will be externally procured and provided to participants as and when required.

Job opportunities Work experience/placements / volunteering / meeting with (NWC Business Support potential volunteer agencies / sector introductions / helping to Officer) write CVs / “job-search”/mock interviews. Role of the project’s Business Support Officer in regards to the work placements and jobsearches.

Creating fair and Awareness of mental health issues in the workplace. Supporting achievable job businesses to provide job opportunities and appropriate work opportunities conditions for individuals with mental health issues. Developing the (NWC Local Manager & Employers’ Charter in Gwynedd.

NWC Business Support Officer) The headline performance indicators for NWC Gwynedd are: Table 3.4: NWC Gwynedd project headline performance indicators

Results

Outputs

Performance indicators

Total Participants (economically inactive and unemployed) Employers assisted or financially supported Participants entering employment Participants gaining qualifications Participants entering further learning Participants gaining other positive outcomes Participants receiving support with caring responsibilities Employers adopting or improving equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems

Target

1,226

Results as a % of outputs

19 236 686 254 1,209 36

19% 56% 21% 99% 3%

10

53%

Source: NWC Regional Team

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

3.4. Conwy The table below shows the total cost of the NWC project in Conwy as well as the proportion of ESF and match funding.

Table 3.5: NWC Conwy project costs, ESF and match-funding

Total Project Cost Match funding ESF funding

Funding £4,784,861 £2,447,835 £2,337,026

Source: NWC Regional Team

The graphic on the following page (Figure 3.4) illustrates the structure of NWC in Conwy.

Figure 3.4: The NWC management and delivery structure in Conwy

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

The NWC team includes 46 staff (including match-funding staff) and provides participant support services for Learning Disabilities and Children and Families Services. The Central Administration Team provides database and performance monitoring services to the project and the Welfare Rights Officer supports participants from all areas of the project. Support for employers regarding equality and diversity will be provided by an Employer and Business Liaison Officer. A Mental Health Service is a procured service that is provided by Cam Ymlaen.

NWC is part of a wider programme in Conwy, “Let’s Get Working”. As well as NWC this programme also includes Genesis Wales (Welsh Government) 8, the Engagement Gateway (WCVA) 9, and Families First (Welsh Government) 10.

The graphic below (Figure 3.5), developed by the programme, illustrates how the elements of the programme complement one another, and allow a participant to enter the journey towards employment at whichever stage is appropriate to their individual needs.

Figure 3.5: The Genesis Wales, Engagement Gateway and NWC journey in Conwy

8

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/childrenyoungpeople/parenting/help/genesiswales2/?lang=en http://www.wcva.org.uk/europe/index.cfm?sub=4&display_sitetextid=226 10 http://wales.gov.uk/topics/childrenyoungpeople/parenting/help/familiesfirst/;jsessionid=340qPwxGhrP5ShrknQMRg9j6LKJRTPNm1QLR 099ZNqQgrZJhGMHg!639923638?lang=en 9

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The services provided by the Learning Disability NWC team are: •

Supported Employment Team - the team provide one to one and group support with: o o o o o o

Basic Skills Support Support with CV’s Volunteer Placements Job Search Support with benefit advice Work information Programme Employability Time management What’s expected in the work place Appearance

•

Bryn Euryn Horticultural Nursery - propagates plants and has a small retail outlet (match funded posts).

•

Gardens Etc Project - service users go out and do gardening jobs for practical work experience (match funded posts).

•

Pinewood Products (joinery business) - makes benches, bird tables, planters etc, for practical work experience and on the job accredited training (match funded posts).

•

Conwy Wood Craft and Kindling - turning pallets into kindling again for practical work experience (match funded posts).

•

Abergele Graphics and Communication Suite - design and print studio that provides work based accredited learning (match funded posts).

•

Llanrwst Gardening and Recycling - based in a forest environment, grows things, produces compost and also collect and re-cycles, again provides accredited work based training (match funded posts).

•

Horizons Recycling Project - collecting paper, plastics, cans, etc. from local offices again providing work based learning opportunities (match funded posts).

The services provided by the Children and Families NWC Team are: •

Support for individuals to take steps to return to employment - The team provide one to one and group support with: o o o o o o o o

Confidence and self esteem Motivation Skills for work training CV writing Interview skills Work Placements Job Search Support with benefit advice

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

•

Parent Support - support for things such as parenting skills, introducing routines for their children, help with benefits, housing, etc. (match-funding posts).

•

DARRT (substance misuse) - the drug and alcohol rapid response team which has a focus not necessarily on stopping people taking drugs but on managing them whilst they do take drugs so that they do not neglect their children (match-funding posts).

•

Community Support Team - supports parents of teenagers to help them to set up boundaries and so on (match-funding posts).

The services provided by the procured mental health service Cam Ymlaen include: •

Participant training in association with Coleg Harlech including: o o o

•

OCN Level 1 and 2 Beginners Word Processing, Intermediate Word, Digital Editing and Web design.

OCN Level 1 Beginners Guide to Word Processing/IT. NOCN Employability.

Dedicated Employment Coordinators, who work closely with participants once they are work ready to find suitable placements and full time paid work for them. This includes: o o o o

Preparation of CV’s Job search Assistance with job applications Mock interviews.

The headline performance indicators for NWC Conwy from 1st March 2010 until 28th February 2014 are: Table 3.6: NWC Conwy project headline performance indicators

Results

Outputs

Performance indicators

Target

Total Participants (economically inactive and unemployed)

480

Employers assisted or financially supported

15

Participants entering employment Participants gaining qualifications Participants entering further learning Participants gaining other positive outcomes Participants receiving support with caring responsibilities Employers adopting or improving equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems

98 167 160 300 24

20% 57% 18% 75% 5%

10

66%

Results as a % of outputs

Source: NWC Regional Team

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3.5. Denbighshire The table below shows the total cost of the NWC project in Denbighshire as well as the proportion of ESF and match funding.

Table 3.7: NWC Denbighshire project costs, ESF and match-funding

Total Project Cost Match funding ESF funding

Funding £7,067,205 £2,906,442 £4,160,762

Source: NWC Regional Team

The following graphic illustrates the structure of the NWC project in Denbighshire, which includes (including match-funding posts) 53 members of staff.

Figure 3.6: The NWC management and delivery structure in Denbighshire

The Community Development Agency (CDA) Resources and Training Officer provides 30 hours per week match funding; supervision of Community Skills staff and provision of training to participants.

However, the hours used as match funding have recently increased to 34 hours per week to take account of additional work undertaken on the project. The Senior Community Development Officers’ match funding is for time spent managing the staff on two elements of the project and for time spent on development and attendance at NWC meetings.

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The NWC project in Denbighshire has four ‘internal’ elements (circled in red in the graphic above); Work Connections 2, Learning Disabilities, Community Skills and Cefndy.

•

Work Connections 2: a wide range of support provided via caseworkers focused on resolving and overcoming anything that a participant believes is a challenge to them. This includes people with disabilities and now includes older people (previously a separate element within the project).

This service is intensive one-on-one work which can last anything from 3 months to over 12 months depending on the individual’s needs.

•

Community Skills: this service offers a range of support including: CV writing, job searches, interview skills, work-clubs and includes satellite offices that also offer IT support. An important part of the service is that it is provided in an informal environment and at local community venues. This element also provides accredited ECDL courses and the CDA and satellite venues are approved testing centres.

•

Learning Disabilities – this element has four “businesses” where service users can get paid (£3 per day based on attendance) work experience, known as ‘tasters’. The ‘tasters’ are for a 6 week period and then the service user is reviewed, if they need more experience they can continue.

The four businesses are: o o o o

Garden Furniture Factory Garden Nursery ( also has a team called garden control which is part of the nursery but do things like garden maintenance to the general community) Popty – a catering service that offers ‘off-site’ buffets, supplies local shops and also run a small café Task Force – light assembly work

The intention of NWC is to enhance the opportunities available to people who have a learning disability, within a mainstream environment, if possible.

Other support available includes the ‘job finding service’ which helps people with a learning disability to develop their CV, interview skills and job searching ability. Further, support is available to arrange work placements with various local employers, both in the public and private sector.

•

Cefndy – this is a local authority resource, which produces equipment and aids for older people and people who have a disability (e.g. hand rails, commodes, etc.). It provides work experience for NWC participants in order to obtain a taste of a working environment

NWC in Denbighshire also includes the following three procured (external) services: • • •

specialist support for participants with mental health problems (Hafal); specialist support for women (North Wales Women’s Centre ); and Training and Education Framework (5 local providers), which all elements of the project can draw upon to provide training to participants based on their specific needs (circled in blue in the graphic above).

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

The headline performance indicators for NWC Denbighshire are: Table 3.4: NWC Denbighshire project headline performance indicators

Results

Outputs

Performance indicators

Total Participants (economically inactive and unemployed) Employers assisted or financially supported Participants entering employment Participants gaining qualifications Participants entering further learning Participants gaining other positive outcomes Participants receiving support with caring responsibilities Employers adopting or improving equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems

Target

1,620

Results as a % of outputs

26 314 1,000 250 1,620 230

19% 62% 15% 100% 14%

13

50%

Source: NWC Regional Team

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3.6. Monitoring data and systems 3.6.1. Project monitoring database A common project database has been set-up that will record participants’ data relating to economic activity, progress made, training undertaken, skills gained, qualifications obtained and soft outcomes achieved. The database is designed to enable the Regional Management Team and the Project Delivery Teams to have constant access to all service delivery information. It will also provide the evaluation team with access to the monitoring data.

3.6.2. Soft outcomes - the Work Star Evaluation reports often make references to ‘soft outcomes’ and the ‘distance travelled’ by those being supported by a project. They represent a way of monitoring the benefits to participants in a project which conventional outputs such as the numbers gaining a qualification or employment (often referred to as ‘hard outputs’), may not capture.

In the case of NWC, soft outcomes are being used to monitor how participants move towards a situation where they are ready to move into employment and the Work Star is being used to collect the necessary information from participants. Work Star is one of a series of ‘Outcome Stars’ developed by Triangle Consulting11. It sets out five stages within a ‘journey into work’ that an individual will take if and when they progress: a) b) c) d) e)

Not thinking about work: substantial barriers to work or advancement and you can't see a way round them Thinking about work: substantial barriers but you are working out how to address them Making progress: some barriers overcome but others are still there Work-ready with support: barriers mostly overcome or can be worked around; you need support to maintain progress Self-reliance: in work, work-ready, or engaged in work-related training. By then you don't need support from the programme

As part of their monitoring procedures, the NWC teams are tracking participants as they move through these stages and entering that data into the monitoring database. The evaluation will use that information, alongside the other monitoring data being recorded, as part of the process of measuring the impact of the project.

11

For further information please refer to: http://www.outcomesstar.org.uk/

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4. Policy and strategy context and update This section seeks to explore contextual changes which have or will, have an impact on the NWC programme. It is split into three sub-sections, each intertwining to create a picture of the changing environment under which NWC is operating. The first section explores the recession in Wales, the second the changing policy environment, and the third the key groups targeted by NWC. Section summary • • •

Since the original business plan for the NWC project was prepared, Wales has been through a period of recession which has had a number of economic impacts which influence the NWC project; most notably increasing unemployment.

A number of policies and strategies have emerged since the inception of NWC that are significant in a range of ways. There are also plans in place at the time of writing for additional policies that will egress during the NWC delivery period.

A key context and influence on the delivery of NWC has been the rapid evolution of welfare policy brought about by the UK coalition government through their programme of welfare reform and in particular the new Work Programme.

4.1. Recession in Wales 4.1.1. Introduction On the 25th April 2012, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released initial GVA estimates suggesting that the UK economy had shrunk for the first three months of 2012 and as such the UK had potentially entered a “double-dip” recession 12. The original business plans for the NWC were drafted during a very different period: the emergence of the recession in late 2008 – early 2009, since which time the situation has changed considerably.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008 incurred massive losses on financial institutions throughout the world with significant government intervention demanded to protect a full-scale banking collapse taking place. This led to massive restrictions on lending designed to help begin address the huge debt bubble that had emerged with the shock of the impact leading to a huge reduction in consumer confidence. In addition, significant reductions in public sector spending were made to address the public sector debt that had been built throughout the Labour government’s tenure on the assumption of sustained economic growth. These factors (amongst many others) combined to lead to an economic downturn and subsequent recession of the scale not seen in the UK since the great depression of the 1930s. Economic growth in the UK and Wales remains anaemic (even falling at times) and, synonymous with all other recessions, the legacy of higher unemployment, post-recession, remains.

12

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q1-2012/stb-q1-2012.html

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4.1.2. Impact on the Labour Market in Wales The most pertinent impact of the recession is the impact on the labour market, specifically unemployment. There are two standard measures for unemployment used in official statistics in the UK: the ILO unemployment measure and the claimant count. These are continually updated by the ONS and the latest data for each of these will now be presented.

Unemployment The International Labour Organisation (ILO) unemployment measure is a count of those who are out of work and want a job, have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; plus those who are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start in the next 2 weeks. Unemployment rates (based on the ILO definition) are calculated in all EU countries leading to the calculation of EU harmonised unemployment rates. These rates are expressed as a percentage of the economically active population. Figure 4.1 below illustrates the increase in the ILO unemployment rate in Wales since the beginning of 2008.

Figure 4.1: ILO Unemployment Rate in Wales (% of pop. 16 and over, quarterly)

Source: Statswales

Since late 2007, there has been a sharp rise in the quarterly unemployment rate in Wales from 4.7% of the population aged 16 or over to 8.9% (in the quarter ending Feb 2012, the last for which data is available). The rate grew most rapidly during the end of 2008- middle of 2009 before tailing off slightly prior to another sharp rise in mid 2011. The unemployment rate reached a high of 9.3% during Jul 2011 to Sep 2011, nearly double the rate three years previous.

Over the same period, the unemployment rate in the UK as a whole rose from 5.2% to 8.3%, a smaller rise than in Wales but still significant. The UK rate peaked slightly after Wales during Sep 2011 to Jan 2012, reaching 8.4% for three quarters in a row.

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Claimant Count The claimant count is a count of all persons claiming unemployment-related benefits, taken from Jobcentre Plus administrative systems. As such it is not subject to sampling variability and can therefore be disaggregated to very high levels of detail. However, it excludes those who are unemployed who are not eligible to claim (for example those out of work but whose partner works), and those who do not wish to claim.

Figure 4.2: Claimant Count Wales Jan 2008 – March 2012

Source: Statswales

Claimant counts have taken a similar path to unemployment in Wales between the start of 2008 and early 2012, rising sharply during 2008 and early 2009, tailoring off toward the end of 2009, but rising again during the second half of 2011 and the start of 2012. At its peak in October 2009, there were 80,700 claimants in Wales, a rate of 5.5%13. The rate has remained higher in Wales than the UK for this whole period, increasing from a difference of 0.2% in Jan 2008 to 0.7% in March 2012.

Taken together, the unemployment rate and claimant count suggest that the labour market in Wales has suffered to an even greater extent than the UK as a whole in recent years. It has also been suggested that the rise in unemployment is lower than expected given that it has followed the equivalent drop in GVA in other recessions (Drinkwater et al 2011). This suggests that there has been some relative success in cushioning the impact of the recession in terms of unemployment, but that this may not be sustained once the effects of public sector cuts are felt (especially welfare) in the coming years. This could be particularly significant for Wales, with a greater proportion of people employed in the public sector than the UK average.

13 Workplace-based rates which are calculated by expressing the number of claimants who are resident in each area as a percentage of workforce jobs plus the claimant count. Workforce jobs are the sum of: employee jobs; self-employment jobs; Her Majesty`s Forces; government-supported trainees. The largest component of the workforce is employee jobs which comes from a survey of employers. As a result the rate is a workplace-based measure, which expresses the demand for jobs in an area.

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4.1.3. Impacts in the Programme Area The following graph shows the unemployment rate in each local authority area, for the North West Wales region and for Wales as it was in June during the past three financial years. The patter for the region is similar to that for Wales although the increase had been less (half a percent compared to one percent). The rate had also remained around 2% lower in the region than in Wales as a whole.

Figure 4.3: ILO Unemployment Rate in each Local Authority area, NW Wales and Wales (% of pop. 16 and over, June 08/09, 09/10 and 10/11)

Source: Statswales

The data for the individual local authority areas shows some interesting differences in patterns with the rate increasing in 2009/10 in Denbighshire before reducing in 2010/11. The rate was higher in 2008/09 in Anglesey than in both subsequent years. This is an indication of how the context within which NWC is operating is different in each Local Authority area.

Table 4.1: Claimants numbers and rate in each Local Authority area, NW Wales and Wales in February 2008 - 2012 (rate = proportion of resident population aged 16 - 64)14 February 2008 Area

February 2009

February 2010

February 2011

February 2012

No.

Rate

No.

Rate

No.

Rate

No.

Rate

No.

Rate

Isle of Anglesey

1,257

3.0

1,666

4.0

2,142

5.2

1,929

4.7

1,965

4.8

Gwynedd

1,780

2.7

2,629

4.0

2,929

4.5

2,671

4.1

2,879

4.5

Conwy

1,499

2.5

2,369

4.0

2,569

4.4

2,399

4.1

2,526

4.3

Denbighshire

1,676

2.3

2,580

3.5

2,712

3.7

2,495

3.4

2,660

3.6

NW Wales

6,212

2.6

9,244

3.9

10,352

4.5

9,494

4.1

10,030

4.3

Wales

43,002

2.3

76,837

4.0

82,986

4.4

76,240

4.0

84,947

4.5

Source: Statswales

The table above shows both the number and rate of claimants in each Local Authority area, North West Wales and Wales. Again, the impact of the recession is clear with the rate in 2012 higher than in 2008 in each area.

14

Rates for local authorities from 2011 onwards are calculated using the mid-2010 resident population aged 16-64. Rates for regions and countries from 2011 onwards are calculated using the mid-2010 resident population aged 16-64.

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4.1.4. Health and the Recession Higher unemployment levels during recessions have a clear impact on a range of social and economic outcomes (e.g. higher crime rates and lower levels of demand within affected areas and worsening public finances through lower tax receipts and higher benefit payments), but there are also major impacts on the people who lose their jobs. In particular, there is considerable evidence to suggest that unemployment causes higher levels of depression and poorer health outcomes15 (see Drinkwater et al 2007). Key target groups for NWC include people with mental or physical health issues and so any suggestion of a change in the nature and scope of these groups is an important contextual influence.

Appropriate datasets and analyses of this recession are not yet available. As such, it is important to consider evidence from other recessions. In a comprehensive review of literature and evidence of the impact of recessions on health, Elliot et al. (2011) found “the general picture appears to be that the strongest negative effect is on mental health (including the risk of suicide), with evidence of impact on some physical health problems” 16. It is also recognised that there is an element of dual causation in that as well as unemployment being a threat to health, ill health is also a threat to employment. However the evidence does suggest some health improvements during recessions including fewer road traffic accidents and some improvements to health behaviours: alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity and diet (largely due to cost factors).

The report suggested that: “There is a need for flexible active labour market programmes that support people entering, re-entering or staying in satisfactory employment in parallel to maintaining and generating good health.”

15 16

http://www.wiserd.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WISERD_PBS_002.pdf http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/socsi/research/publications/workingpapers/paper-134.html

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4.2. The Policy Context 4.2.1. Introduction This section explores the changing policy context in Wales (and the UK) since the inception of NWC. The NWC business plan identified a number of UK and Welsh Government (WG) strategies that were related to the programme including the following: • • • • • • • • • • •

’Improving Specialist Disability Employment Services‘(DWP) -The aim is to help more people with disabilities to have mainstream employment opportunities.

Older People Strategy for Wales – the project will help older people remain independent through helping them into employment ‘Fulfilled Lives, Supportive Communities’, - one of the core aims of this project is to promote independence, amongst people with social care needs, through helping them engage with training and employment ‘Wales: A Better Country - this project will help people to break out of poverty related issues by supporting them with training and moving on to employment ‘Wales – A Vibrant Economy’. The project will support job creation and help individuals to tackle barriers to becoming employed ‘Skills & Employment Action Plan’. The Project will contribute to; “Interventions to reduce or remove the barriers to participation in work.”

‘One Wales’- principles of social justice, sustainability and inclusivity ‘Enhancing Skills for Jobs’ -there is a major focus in this project on supporting people from a range of disadvantaged groups to learn new skills that should enhance their prospects for moving on to employment ‘Skills that Work for Wales’- elements of the project include developing community based learning initiatives for people from disadvantaged groups, who have often experienced difficulties in formal educational settings.

Community Cohesion Strategy- many of the participants that this project intends to help will have been out of work for a considerable period of time and not had the opportunity to contribute to their communities as active citizens.

‘Regenerating Communities’- the project will operate within some areas which have been recognised as strategic regeneration areas by the Welsh Assembly Government and contribute to the implementation of SRA’s

Whilst these policy and strategy contributions are still relevant, there are a number of other policies and strategies which have emerged since the inception of NWC which are significant in a range of ways. There are also plans in place at the time of writing for additional policies which will egress during the NWC delivery period. These will now be explored, beginning with welfare reform.

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4.2.2. Welfare Reform and the Work Programme A key context and influence on the delivery of NWC has been the rapid evolution of welfare policy brought about by the coalition government through their programme of welfare reform. The wider impact of welfare reform will be explored now, followed by a focus on the Work Programme.

Welfare Reform and Wales The proposals put forward by the Coalition Government in the Welfare Reform Bill 2011 are perhaps the most radical that post war Britain has seen. The bill which was released on 16th February 2011 aims to make the benefit and tax systems simpler and fairer through “creating the right incentives to get more people into work by ensuring work always pays, protecting the most vulnerable in our society and delivering fairness to those claiming benefit and to the taxpayer.”17 These changes look to have major impacts on the quality of life and the living standards of both individuals and households; in particular these impacts will be seen amongst the low income households who find themselves dependent on benefit payments. There will also be a geographical impact as Hamnett (2010) explains: “with some of the greatest effects being felt in the poorest and most deprived areas of Britain, where economic activity levels are lowest and unemployment and the proportion of the population who are dependent on social security benefits is highest.”18 The Welsh Government and leading welfare groups are concerned about the impact these reforms will have in Wales, particularly on the most vulnerable groups and individuals 19. The Welsh Government’s Ministerial Task and Finish Group for Welfare Reform has commissioned a programme of work to assess the impact of the UK Government’s welfare reforms in Wales. Findings from Stage 1 of this programme of work were released in early 2012. The key finding of the report was that Wales will be hit disproportionately compared to the rest of the UK by the welfare reforms.

More specifically 20: • • •

• •

the impact of the tax and benefit changes to be implemented by 2014–15 will mean that on average households in Wales can expect to lose 4.1% of their income (or £1,110 per year).

The changes will be regressive in nature at the UK level (i.e. they will take more proportionately from lower-income groups than from higher-income groups except the very richest income group), and are likely to be even more regressive in Wales. the poorest households with children are estimated to lose the largest proportion of their income as a result of the tax and benefit changes. In particular, non-working lone parents and workless couples with children are expected to suffer a disproportionate financial hit. Families with children aged under five and families with more than two children will also be particularly badly affected. cuts to benefits and more stringent benefit entitlement rules may push people out of unemployment and into crime activities.

The report also notes that the effects of the welfare reforms will depend on the strength of the wider economy and the extent to which people change their behaviour in response to benefit reductions.

17

Welfare Reform Bill 2011; http://www.dwp.gov.uk/policy/welfare-reform/legislation-and-key-documents/welfare-reform-bill-2011/ Hamnett C. (2010) The Re-shaping of the British Welfare System and its Implications for Geography and Geographers Progress in Human Geography Sage: London.

19 http://wales.gov.uk/newsroom/educationandskills/2012/120319welfarereforms/?lang=en 20 http://wales.gov.uk/docs/dcells/publications/120228welfarereformen.pdf 18

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The Work Programme Central to the reform of welfare is the Work Programme 21 which works alongside changes to welfare benefits. The Work Programme replaces all previous mainstream (government) support activity, and is, in theory a ‘black box approach’ open to all, although disabled people may get support from the Work Choice programme 22. The new provision aims to offer individualised support underpinned by an element of benefit compulsion where people not undertaking required activity can be subject to benefit sanctions and possible mandatory activity. People coming out of their Work Programme without a job may be put onto Mandatory Community Activity and could cycle between the two if they do not gain employment.

The programme is delivered by specialist public, private and voluntary sector providers designing flexible support based on customer need, and these providers will be rewarded for keeping people in work and for assisting harder to help customers. These rewards are in the form of three fee payments- an attachment fee when an individual starts the programme, a job outcome fee and a sustainment fee for sustained employment.

The Department for Work and Pensions has appointed Working Links and Rehab Jobfit to deliver the programme in Wales; as ‘prime providers’ (with contracts lasting for seven years) they will be expected to work with a range of sub-contractors to deliver the personalised and localised services enshrined in the programme, although in their original bids to be prime contractors Working Links proposed to sub-contract 5.3% of their total contract value to the voluntary sector, whilst Rehab Jobfit proposed 13% voluntary sector sub-contracting.

Importantly, ESF support (such as that provided through NWC) cannot be used for people eligible for mandatory entry to the Work Programme as it would substitute expenditure which the Member State would make from its own resources. WEFO guidance states that the following groups are eligible for ESF support: •

• • • • • • • •

21

Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and Employment Support Allowance claimants with mandatory access to the Work Programme prior to any referral onto the Work Programme (however, ESF projects must be confident that they can achieve an outcome with these individuals before the point of referral); JSA/ ESA claimants with voluntary access to the Work Programme who are not accessing it; Income support recipients (e.g. single parents of children aged under 7 and other carers); Incapacity Benefit (IB) recipients23; People out of work who are not claiming benefits; People being made redundant; 16-17 year olds (unless they are claiming JSA and on the work programme); People in receipt of state pension; Unemployed or economically inactive people in receipt of carers allowance (if not claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) or Employment Support Allowance (ESA)).

http://www.dwp.gov.uk/policy/welfare-reform/the-work-programme/

22

http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/DisabledPeople/Employmentsupport/WorkSchemesAndProgrammes/DG_187696 IB is to be gradually phased out and replaced by ESA and Universal Credit over the next 3 years, with Job Centre Plus approximate figures indicating that the c116,000 IB recipients due to be migrated will be moved onto ESA Work Related Activity Group (39%), ESA (29%), and 31% onto JSA or off benefit.

23

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A statement in the revised business plan describes how NWC has adapted to the introduction of the Work Programme: The groups of people the project aims to support will not alter because of the Work Programme. Statistical data demonstrates that the revised eligibility criteria, as a result of the Work Programme, will have a minimal effect on the project. The project aims to deliver the same services and the number of participants remains very much achievable.

The main impact to the project is because the re-profile/extension option is no longer available to the project. In October 2010, WEFO invited the project to apply for an extension and a full project re-profile was submitted in February 2011. However, WEFO’s rules regarding project extensions changed and the project was advised that an extension would not be possible at this stage. As a result, the project will reduce in size and expenditure.

In light of this, the revised plans submitted demonstrate changes, which reflect the Work Programme implications, and the required changes submitted for the February re-profile.

Please note that the project end date remains at 28th February 2014 as stated in the approval letter dated 4th February 2010.

The following participants will be eligible to receive support from the Taith I Waith/New Work Connections project from 1st September 2011 and onwards: • • • • • •

JSA and ESA claimants with mandatory access to the Work Programme prior to any referral onto the Work Programme; (we will ensure that we are confident that we can achieve an outcome with these individuals before the point of referral) JSA and ESA claimants with voluntary access to the Work Programme and who are not accessing it; Income Support recipients (e.g. single parents of children aged under 7 and other carers); Incapacity Benefit recipients (IB will be gradually phased out and replaced by ESA and Universal Credit over the course of the next three years); People out of work who are not claiming benefits; 16-17 year olds (unless claiming JSA and on the Work Programme)

We are confident that many people who are in the project’s target groups will be within the above benefit categories.

The following Work Programme participants will not be eligible for support from the project: • •

claimants who are on the Work Programme during the pre-employment phase; and Work Choice participants. Work Choice is a DWP programme providing specialist employability, work entry and supported work opportunities to unemployed and economically inactive disabled people (as defined by the Equality Act 2010) with complex employment support needs.

Entry onto the project will be at any point prior to referral onto the Work Programme and we will ensure that activity with eligible participants achieves contracted outcomes. Project recruitment procedures and policies will reflect this at a regional level.

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We appreciate that, in the case of the most disadvantaged participants, most vulnerable to any change in support, WEFO will consider on-going ESF support on a case-by-case basis post referral onto the Work Programme.

The project aims to work much more closely with the Welfare Rights Unit who offer a range of support to people regarding benefit issues, demand for which will undoubtedly increase after Work Programme implementation. With the impact of the Work Programme, we anticipate that the Welfare Rights Unit will become more involved in supporting people regarding disputes about benefits and in helping them weigh up the financial impact of moving away from benefits to employment. We intend to work in close partnership with the Unit so that: • •

New Work Connections will receive greater expertise, for example, on the impact of the Work Programme on potential participants Ensuring that people who seek help regarding benefit issues can receive appropriate advice regarding the advantages of moving on to employment (the WRU will undertake “better off” assessments)

As part of the ‘reaction’ to the introduction of the Work Programme, a partnership agreement has been developed between NWC and Job Centre Plus. As part of this agreement, it is possible to negotiate deferring the referral of NWC participants to the Work Programme in circumstances where that would have a detrimental effect on the ongoing support they are receiving from the project.

4.2.3. Child Poverty Strategy The Welsh Government aspires to the eradication of child poverty by 2020. A new Child Poverty Strategy for Wales was adopted in early 2011 and sets out WG’s vision and strategic objectives for reducing child poverty 24. The three new strategic objectives for tackling child poverty are to: • • •

reduce the number of families living in workless households; improve the skills of parents and young people living in low income households so they can secure well-paid employment; and reduce inequalities that exist in health, education and economic outcomes of children and families by improving the outcomes of the poorest.

Why is this relevant to NWC? There is an extensive literature on the links between unemployment, the incidence and continued experience of child poverty, and the opportunity that tackling worklessness can have upon reducing child poverty levels. Platt (2010)25 shows that the potential transmission of all forms of economic disadvantage between generations and the long term impacts of this disadvantage increase significantly for children living in workless households.

24

http://wales.gov.uk/docs/dsjlg/policy/110203newchildpovstrategy2en.pdf Platt, L. (2010) ‘Ten year transitions in children’s experience of living in a workless household: variations by ethnic group’ in Population Trends 139, Spring 2010, ONS. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationtrends/downloads/PopTrends06.pdf

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The literature further shows that children living in workless households face higher risks of living in future poverty as well as facing significant challenges to their own personal, social and health development, as well as greater potential impacts on overall child welfare 26. For those who live longer in poverty, the risks and impacts tend to be more pronounced than for those children who may live in short-term or transient poverty such that by early intervention some longer term impacts of poverty maybe mitigated 27 28. As such, NWC has the potential to contribute to the ambitious WG child poverty targets.

4.2.4. Youth Engagement and Employment Action Plan Published in 2009, The Youth Engagement and Employment Action Plan outlines WG’s approach to preventing children and young people from disengaging from learning and supporting them with entry to the labour market 29. The plan has been developed as part of the government’s "Skills that Work for Wales", the skills and employment strategy, which was identified by the NWC business plan as a relevant strategy. The plan covers 2011-15 and has an overall aim to reduce the number of young people who are, or at risk of becoming, not in education, employment or training in Wales.

Some of the key aims of the plan relate directly to NWC provisions: • • • •

efficient processes for identifying and re-engaging young people who become NEET; a full range of learning options to meet demand; effective learning support and careers advice and guidance, so that young people are given the knowledge and skills to access appropriate education, training or employment; and perhaps most importantly for many young people who are NEET, targeted and intensive personal support, to enable young people to overcome significant and sometimes multiple barriers to participation.

4.2.5. Basic Skills Cymru Basic Skills is defined as the ability to read, write and speak in English or Welsh and to use maths, at a level necessary to function and progress both in work and in society. Introduced in 2009, Basic Skills Cymru is the Welsh Government's new strategy to help children and adults in Wales who struggle with basic literacy and numeracy30. One of the four fundamental aims of the strategy is particularly relevant to NWC and represents a key area the programme seeks to address: •

The number of adults with poor basic skills should be diminished significantly

26

Bradbury, B, Jenkins, S P and Micklewright, J (eds) (2001) The Dynamics of Child Poverty in Industrialised Countries, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 27 Vleminckx, K and Smeeding, T M (eds) 2001 Child Well-Being, Child Poverty and Child Policy in Modern Nations: What do we know? Bristol: The Policy Press.

28 Schoon, I, Sacker, A and Bartley, M (2003) ‘Socio-economic adversity and psychosocial adjustment: a developmental contextual perspective’, Social Science and Medicine 57: 1001– 1015.

29 http://wales.gov.uk/topics/educationandskills/publications/guidance/yeeap/?lang=en 30 http://wales.gov.uk/topics/educationandskills/allsectorpolicies/basicskillscymru/?lang=en

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4.2.6. Economic Renewal: A new direction Economic Renewal: a new direction was published in 2010 and sets out the role devolved government can play in providing the best conditions and framework to enable the private sector to grow and flourish. In future, government resources will be targeted at tackling wide systematic issues within the Welsh Economy - investing in infrastructure, skills and improving the conditions within which businesses operate 31.

Economic Renewal will see a fundamental shift away from direct and generic support for companies to a focus on creating the right environment for businesses to succeed. The strategy is based on five priorities including one closely related to NWC: Broadening and deepening the skills base: The foundation of any economy is its working population and education and skills at all levels are vital for economic growth and prosperity in Wales. Delivering this is a shared responsibility for us as a Government, learning providers, employers and individuals.

4.2.7. Strategic Equality Plan The Welsh Government was the first part of Great Britain (GB) to regulate to create specific duties under the 2010 Equality Act. Public sector bodies in Wales, including the Welsh Government have a statutory duty to publish Equality Objectives by 2 April 2012 and to have developed a Strategic Equality Plan as soon as possible thereafter. WG published their plan in 201232. The plan aims to work toward a series of equality objectives: 1. Strengthen advice, information and advocacy services to help people with protected characteristics understand and exercise their rights and make informed choices.

2. Work with partners to identify and address the causes of the gender, ethnicity and disability pay and employment differences.

3. Reduce the numbers of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET).

4. Reduce the incidence of all forms of violence against women, domestic abuse, ‘honour’ based violence, hate crime, bullying and elder abuse.

5. Tackle barriers and support disabled people so that they can live independently and exercise choice and control in their daily lives.

6. Put the needs of service users at the heart of delivery in key public services, in particular health, housing and social services, so that they are responsive to the needs of people with protected characteristics.

7. Improve the engagement and participation of under-represented groups in public appointments.

8. Create a more inclusive workplace that promotes equality of opportunity for staff with protected characteristics through improved employee engagement and increase awareness of learning and development opportunities that are accessible to all staff.

The objectives are relevant to both NWC’s programme of work, and the way in which they are required to work.

31

32

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/businessandeconomy/economicrenewal/programmepapers/anewdirection/?lang=en http://wales.gov.uk/docs/caecd/publications/120405sepfinal.pdf

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4.2.8. Policies and Strategies currently under development Alongside those policies that are now in place, three upcoming developments are also considered relevant.

Families First Families First is a programme kicking off in 2012 that promotes the development by local authority areas of effective multi-agency systems and support, with a clear emphasis on prevention and early intervention for families, particularly those living in poverty 33. From April 2012, all local authorities will be expected to develop and implement a: joint assessment Family Framework; team Around the Family model; a coherent set of strategically commissioned, time limited, family-focused services or projects; an inter-authority Families First learning set; and proposals to improve support for families with disabled children and young people.

Families First is driven by the following principles: Services need to be organised so that the support provided is: • • •

• • •

family- focused, taking a whole family approach to improving outcomes; bespoke, tailoring help to individual family circumstances; integrated, with effective co-ordination of planning and service provision across organisations, ensuring that needs assessment and delivery are jointly managed and that there is a seamless progression for families between different interventions and programmes; pro-active, seeking early identification and appropriate intervention for families; intensive, with a vigorous approach and relentless focus, adapting to families’ changing circumstances; and local, identifying the needs of local communities and developing appropriate service delivery to fit those needs, with particular regard for the opportunities to link with, for example, the Flying Start and Communities First programmes.

Families First aims to achieve outcomes in relation to tackling child poverty. As a result, four national programme outcomes have been identified: • • • •

working age people in low income families gain, and progress within employment; children, young people and families, in or at risk of poverty, achieve their potential; children, young people and families are healthy, safe and enjoy well being; and families are confident, nurturing, and resilient.

Every local authority has developed a Families First Action Plan (2012-17). The plans will be delivered at the local level with partner organisations under the guidance of Families First Delivery Groups.

The Families First team at the Welsh Government will work closely with each local authority throughout the five year programme.

The exact nature and content of the four LA plans impacting on the NWC areas will be known soon and the extent to which it will impact upon the programme will become clearer.

33

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/childrenyoungpeople/parenting/help/familiesfirst/?lang=en

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Tackling Poverty Action Plan The Welsh Government is currently developing the ‘Tackling Poverty Action Plan’. At the time of writing, the plan is in development but Ministers have released information on the key priorities of the plan 34: The key objectives of the Tackling Poverty plan are to be the following: 1) in keeping with our commitment to long term well being, our main priority is to prevent poverty, especially through investment in giving children the best possible start in life. From conception through to early adulthood, our aim will be to reduce inequalities at the earliest possible stage and break the link between socio-economic disadvantage, educational underachievement and the impaired life chances that flow from those.

2) recognising that the best route out of poverty is through employment, we will continue to help people to improve their skills and enhance the relevance of their qualifications. We will also remove other barriers to employment – from practical barriers such as accessibility, to less tangible barriers such as poverty of aspiration - helping people to move on to and up the employment ladder. That is why, as identified in our Programme for Government, we have introduced new employment programmes to support young people to gain valuable training and work experience; we are increasing the number of Apprentices and investing in skills; and we will be implementing Jobs Growth Wales from 1 April 2012 which will create 4,000 job opportunities per year for young people aged 16-24 with the support of the private sector.

3) At the same time, we will increase action to mitigate the impact of poverty here and now.

We recognise that for more and more people, even being in work will not guarantee that they can escape relative poverty. We can act to improve the lived experience of these communities, families and individuals. To give just one example, by making tackling fuel poverty an integral part of this agenda, we can help reduce costs to individuals and families, increase their well-being, increase economic activity and lessen the impact on the environment.

It is clear from the intended scope of the Tackling Poverty Action Plan suggest that it will be of close relevance to NWC, however the nature of potential interaction is unclear at this stage.

34

http://wales.gov.uk/about/cabinet/cabinetstatements/2012/tacklingpoverty/?lang=en

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Social Care Bill The proposed Social Services (Wales) Bill for Wales (due late 2012) will provide the legislation required to take forward the change programme outlined in the Welsh Government’s white paper, 'Sustainable Social Services for Wales: A Framework for Action'. It will also provide, for the first time, a coherent legislative framework for social services in Wales. The following areas are due to be addressed: • • • • • •

maintaining and enhancing the wellbeing of people in need; giving citizens a stronger voice and real control; ensuring a strong national direction and local accountability for delivery; safeguarding and protection; regulation and inspection; and adoption and transitions for disabled children and young people.

Again, this Bill will potentially influence the services that are currently funded as part of NWC. One potential impact is that the services provided by NWC become more ‘mainstream’ within the Local Authorities.

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4.3. Targeted Groups: changes in need As noted in Section 2, NWC is focused in a number of ‘target groups’; specifically: • • • • • •

People with physical disabilities or sensory impairment; People with learning disabilities; People with mental health needs; Older people; Young people who are not engaged in education, training or employment (NEETs); and Women who face major disadvantages in the labour market.

As briefly introduced below, since the inception of the project, there have been changes in the nature and scope of some of these groups that may indicate changes in need. Updates in the data available on the qualifications held by people in the NWCs area are also discussed.

4.3.1. People with a learning disability or difficulties, people with mental health needs and people who have a physical disability The most common standardised definition of disability emerges from the 2005 Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) 35. From 1 October 2010, provisions in the Equality Act 2010 (EA) replaced the majority of provisions in the DDA, but the definition suggested in the DDA remains the most widely used. Additionally, work-limiting disability is defined as a long-term disability affecting the kind or amount of work that a person may do.

The most recent data regarding the prevalence of disability in Wales is provided by the 2011 Statistical Bulletin: Prevalence of disability in Wales, 2007-201036. The profile focuses on the statistics available on disability in Wales (covering males aged 16-64 and females aged 16-59) in the Annual Population Survey (APS) for 2007-2010.

The level of DDA disability in Wales in 2010 was around one fifth (20.2%) of the working age population and around three-quarters of these people were also work-limiting disabled. The total DDA disability for working age people in Wales rose from 19.1% in 2007 to 20.2% in 2010. In the NWC programme area, there has been an increase in both the proportion of the working age population who were disabled, and those who are both DDA and work-limiting disabled between 2008 and 2010 (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2: % of population aged 16 - 64 who are disabled and DDA & work-limiting disabled (Angelsey, Conwy, Denbgishire and Gwynedd) 2008 Disabled

both DDA & worklimiting disabled

20.9

13.6

2009

2010

Disabled

both DDA & worklimiting disabled

Disabled

both DDA & worklimiting disabled

21.4

13.6

22.3

14.5

35

Section 1(2) of the DDA generally defined someone as disabled if “he or she has a physical or mental impairment which has a substantial and long-term adverse effect on her or his ability to carry out normal day-to-day activities”.

36 WG (2011) Statistical Bulletin: Prevalence of disability in Wales, 2007-2010 http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2011/111206sb1152011en.pdf

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Qualifications data is not disaggregated for disabled groups regionally, however, data about adult learning is available. Regionally, this is only meaningful for the classification ‘both DDA & worklimiting disabled’ as smaller breakdowns of disability types are not reliable due to the sampling framework of the Annual Population Survey.

Adult learning is classified into two categories, taught and non-taught: •

Taught adult learning: taught courses that were meant to lead to a qualification; taught courses designed to help develop skills used in a job; courses, instructions or tuition in driving, playing a musical instrument, art or craft, sport or any practical skill; evening classes; learning involving an individual working on their own from a package of materials provided by an employer, college, commercial organisation or other training provider; other taught course, instruction or tuition.

•

Non taught adult learning: studying for qualifications without taking part in a taught course; supervised training while doing a job; time spent keeping up-to-date with developments in one’s work or profession e.g. by reading books or attending seminars; deliberately trying to improve one’s knowledge about anything or teach oneself a skill without taking part in a taught course.

In relation to taught adult learning, Table 4.3 (below) demonstrates that the percentage of those who are both DDA and work-limiting disabled undertaking taught adult learning has generally increased in NW Wales over recent years 37; 5.7% of this group more were undertaking taught adult learning in the period October 2010 – November 2011 compared to the period October 2007 – November 2008. Conwy saw the biggest rise over the period under consideration, with nearly twice as many of the group undertaking taught adult learning by November 2011.

Table 4.3: % with taught adult learning - both DDA & also work-limiting - aged 16-64 Oct 2007 - Nov 2008 7.2

O2008 - N2009 8.0

O2009 - N2010 6.8

O2010 - N2011 n/a

Change

12.2

9.4

15.5

22.5

10.3

Denbighshire

9.6

14.1

10.1

12.0

2.4

Gwynedd

17.3

10.6

13.2

n/a

-4.1

NW Wales

11.6

10.5

11.4

17.3

5.7

Wales

13.1

11.5

13.5

11.3

-1.8

Anglesey Conwy

-0.4

Source: ONS (NOMIS) NOTE: n/a - data not available due to small samples

Table 4.4 (below) demonstrates that the percentage of those who are both DDA and work-limiting disabled undertaking non taught adult learning has increased in NW Wales over recent years. This change was significantly greater than that for Wales as a whole. In terms of NWC local authorities, Conwy saw the biggest percentage change in those involved in non taught adult learning, with a large increase also occurring in Anglesey and a smaller one in Denbighshire. Gwynedd was the only LA where the proportion dropped over the period in question.

37

NOTE: data was not available for Anglesey and Gwynedd for O2010-N2011. Therefore change has been calculated in relation to the O2009-N2010 period.

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Table 4.4: % with non taught adult learning - both DDA & also work-limiting - aged 16-64 Oct 2007 - Nov 2008

O2008 - N2009

O2009 - N2010

O2010 - N2011

Change

18.5

17.4

18.4

29.0

10.5

Anglesey Conwy

14.0

15.7

18.2

27.6

13.6

Denbighshire

23.8

30.4

24.1

28.4

4.6

Gwynedd

19.3

18.9

15.4

17.2

-2.1

NW Wales

18.9

20.6

19.0

25.6

6.7

Wales

18.4

19.0

16.2

19.3

0.9

Source: ONS (NOMIS)

The culmination of these changes can be seen in the percentage of those classified as both DDA and work-limiting disabled undertaking no adult learning. Table 4.5 shows that there was a decrease in the proportion not undertaking adult learning in the NW Wales region as a whole, but also that this was not the case for all NWC local authorities. Whilst there was a decrease of 27% in the proportion of those undertaking no adult learning in Conwy, and falls in Anglesey and Denbighshire, there was an increase in Gwynedd.

Table 4.5: % with no adult learning - both DDA & also work-limiting – aged 16-64 Oct 2007 - Nov 2008

O2008 - N2009

O2009 - N2010

O2010 - N2011

Change

Anglesey

59.0

64.6

65.5

56.5

-2.5

Conwy

67.0

62.4

52.8

40.1

-26.9

Denbighshire

56.5

46.2

50.2

47.1

-9.4

Gwynedd

56.7

59.5

58.2

68.6

11.9

NW Wales

59.8

58.2

56.7

53.1

-6.7

Wales

57.3

59.4

58.3

58.6

1.3

Source: ONS (NOMIS)

4.3.2. Older People Over 65’s Continuing a long-standing trend, there has been an increase in the number of people over 65 in the four Local Authorities in which NWC operates between 2008 and 2010. There are now 2,300 more in this group, a rise of 2.7% over this period.

The percentage of over 65’s who are economically inactive has fallen in the programme area as a whole between 2008 (92.4%) and 2011 (91%), mirroring a Wales wide trend, and suggesting a greater proportion of this group are seeking employment to supplement their income.

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Over 50s Welsh jobseekers aged over 50 are five times more likely than 18 to 24-year-olds to be out of work for more than a year, figures have shown... [and] Nearly 20% of older jobseekers have been unemployed for more than a year, but less than 4% of younger jobseekers are unemployed for this length of time, according to figures on jobseekers allowance claimants38.

The latest data from the labour force survey suggests that almost 200,000 people between the ages of 50-64 are economically inactive in Wales, a third of the population within that age group. This figure peaked at the beginning of 2011 when it was estimated that in excess of 220,000 or over 38% of this age group were economically inactive.39 Whilst the need therefore is clear to see and indeed has grown in terms of the scale of the target market, the opportunity in terms of securing sustainable employment target groups has been severely constrained by the downturn with employment numbers in Wales still 20,000 below their 2008 peak.

Qualifications data for those over 50 but of working age (aged 50 – 64) is available regionally, although currently only up to the end of 2010. The data used refers to the NVQ classification system 40. The most relevant data for NWC relates to those with no qualifications.

Table 4.6 below shows that the proportion of 50 – 64 year olds with no qualifications fell significantly across all NWC local authorities between 2008 and 2010. For the NW wales region as a whole, the reduction was of a slightly greater degree than the average for Wales. The biggest fall in the proportion of 50 – 64 year olds came in Denbighshire, where there was a 6% fall in the rate in 2010 compared to 2008. This moved Denbighshire from being the NWC local authority with the joint highest percentage with no qualifications to the joint lowest.

Table 4.6: % aged 50 - 64 with no qualifications 2008

2009

2010

Change

Anglesey

21.6

17.4

17.7

-3.9

Conwy

23.7

20.6

20.7

-3.0

Denbighshire

23.7

18.5

17.7

-6.0

Gwynedd

21.5

17.8

18.7

-2.8

NW Wales

22.6

18.6

18.7

-3.9

Wales

23.7

22.8

20.1

-3.6

Source: ONS (NOMIS)

38

From: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/06/24/fifth-of-over-50s-unemployed-for-a-year-91466-28932426/#ixzz1TVJMyWX2

39

Labour Force Survey No qualifications: No formal qualifications held Other qualifications: includes foreign qualifications and some professional qualifications NVQ 1 equivalent: e.g. fewer than 5 GCSEs at grades A-C, foundation GNVQ, NVQ 1 or equivalent NVQ 2 equivalent: e.g. 5 or more GCSEs at grades A-C, intermediate GNVQ, NVQ 2) or equivalent NVQ 3 equivalent: e.g. 2 or more A levels, advanced GNVQ, NVQ 3, 2 or more higher or equivalent NVQ 4 equivalent and above: e.g. HND, Degree and Higher Degree level qualifications or equivalent

40

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Table 4.7 (below) shows how the proportions have changed between 2008 and 2010 for all qualifications categories. The most significant rises have been in those aged 50 – 64 who have NVQ 4+. The proportion that fall into this group is higher in all areas in 2010 than it was in 2008. For the NW Wales region, the only category to fall over this period (apart from ‘no qualification’ – see above) was the proportion with NVQ level 1 only.

Table 4.7: Change 2008- 2010 in % aged 50 - 64 with different qualifications

Anglesey

NVQ 1 0.0

NVQ 2 -3.5

NVQ 3 0.3

NVQ 4+ 8.5

Other qualifications 0.6

Trade qualifications -1.9

-2.9

1.8

0.6

5.3

0.3

-2.2

Conwy Denbighshire

0.6

3.4

0.2

1.1

-0.3

0.9

Gwynedd

-1.3

-0.8

4.6

5.6

0.1

-5.3

NW Wales

-0.9

0.2

1.4

5.1

0.2

-2.1

Wales

0.2

1.8

0.9

2.2

-0.4

-1.0

Source: ONS (NOMIS)

4.3.3. NEETs The young people NEET group is a broad and heterogeneous group with differing needs. However, they commonly fall into three distinct categories: a) Core NEET – those with social and behavioural problems including those who come from families where worklessness and unemployment is an accepted norm. b) Floating NEET – comprising young people who lack direction, motivation and tend to have spells of being NEET in between further education courses or employment with no training. This group also contributes to NEET churn41, which is an issue that policy makers are increasingly trying to address. c) Transition/gap year NEET – those young people who have often chosen to take time out before progressing onto further or higher education opportunities and are likely to return to education, training or employment, but it is not always clear when this will occur. Such ‘transition periods’ are often short-term lasting between 3-6 months.

This distinction is important as it helps to understand the limitations of NEET estimates. Whilst estimates can be provided, they cannot easily and coherently distinguish between these subsets. A decrease in NEETs may not indicate a decrease in need amongst the core NEET group, for example.

The definitive estimate of the number of young people who are NEET in Wales is measured using data published annually in the Statistical First Release (SFR) ‘Participation of young people in education and the labour market’. However, these data are only available annually and cannot be disaggregated at unitary authority level. The latest release updates the estimates to 201042, from which the following figures are taken.

41

This is where young people move between different phases of activity but return to NEET status repeatedly after unsuccessful engagements with activities leading to drop out from college courses, training programmes, or short term spells of employment. ‘Drop out’ is often caused by the failure to address a range of circumstances contributing to NEET status so the young person in question is unable to sustain their involvement within an activity.

42 http://wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/headlines/post16education2011/110727/?lang=en

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Figure 4.4 shows that, whilst the rate of NEETs amongst the 16-18 age group has remained relatively stable over the past few years in Wales, the rate amongst 19-24 year olds has risen from 18% in 2007 to 23.2% in 2010. Further disaggregation of this data shows that, in 2010, compared with 2009, there was an increase in the proportion of 16 to 18 year olds in education or training and a decrease in those in employment. Wales (11.5%) has a slightly higher NEET rate than the UK (10.9%) as a whole for 16-18 year olds, with the gap (0.6%) rising to 3.8% for 19 to 24 year olds.

Figure 4.4: Estimates of the proportion (%) of young people not in education, training or employment (NEET) in Wales, by age and year

Source: ONS

In addition to these national figures, Careers Wales undertakes an annual survey of all leavers from maintained schools4 in Wales to obtain their destinations as at end of October. The results from this survey can be used to provide estimates of NEET rates by UA for 16 year olds. These estimates suggest that in Wales and the programme area, the proportion of 16 year olds not destined for education, employment or training decreased between 2007 and 2010: Table 4.8: The % Year 11 Leavers for Schools known to be not in education, employment or training

Wales NW Wales

2007 6.9 5.5

2008 7.1 6.7

2009 5.7 4.7

2010 5.4 4.2

Source: Career Wales Pupil Destinations

Taken together, these datasets suggest that there is an increased need amongst older young people (19-24) since 2007, but the situation for younger (16-18 year olds) has slightly improved.

Unfortunately, qualifications data for NEETs is not disaggregated and is only available for the whole of Wales for 3-year periods.

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4.3.4. Women who face a disadvantage in the labour market In the 1990s recession, the employment rates of men were more adversely affected than the rate for women. This was mostly explained by the concentration of men in industries that were more severely affected such as manufacturing whilst women were concentrated in sectors such as education and health that are more resilient to economic cycle. However, the public sector cuts which accompany this recession mean that this may not be true over the next few years. In addition to this, a greater proportion of women than men hold part time and/ or low paid positions, two characteristics which mean that they may suffer disproportionately from the economic downturn 43.

These potential changes are important to consider when presenting the unemployment rates of men and women in recent years in Wales. ILO unemployment rate since the start of 2008 has generally risen more rapidly for men, although there has been a sharp rise in the rate for women since May 2011. This suggests women in the labour market have been less harder hit (as was the case with previous recessions), however the caveats presented previously suggest this may not actually be the case.

Figure 4.6: ILO Employment rate Wales (quarterly, by gender)

Source: ONS

43

http://www.tuc.org.uk/extras/womenandrecession.pdf

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In terms of qualifications, the proportion of women of working age who had no qualifications (table 4.8 below) fell between 2008 and 2010 in each Local Authority area. Anglesey and Conwy saw the biggest falls, both by more than 5% (double the average for Wales).

Table 4.8: % of women aged 16 - 64 with no qualifications

Anglesey

2008 16.4

2009 13.4

2010 10.5

Change -5.9

Conwy

17.4

14.1

12.0

-5.4

Denbighshire

15.8

14.6

12.1

-3.7

Gwynedd

15.1

11.6

12.5

-2.6

NW Wales

16.2

13.4

11.8

-4.4

Wales

16.6

16.0

14.0

-2.6

Source: ONS (NOMIS)

In terms of qualifications held amongst working age women, the biggest change in the NW Wales region has come in the rise in the proportion that hold NVQ level 4 or above. Table 4.9 (below) shows this band has risen 5.2% between 2008 and 2010 in the NW Wales region as a whole, during which time the proportion holding either NVQ 1 or 2 has fallen.

Table 4.9: Change 2008- 2010 in % women aged 16 - 64 with different qualifications NVQ 1

NVQ 2

NVQ 3

NVQ 4+

Other qualifications

Trade qualifications

-4.2

-4.2

3.1

9.1

1.0

1.3

Anglesey Conwy

-2.0

0.1

-1.0

7.2

1.0

0.1

Denbighshire

-0.7

0.4

2.1

2.6

-0.9

0.1

Gwynedd

-4.4

1.3

4.4

1.8

-0.5

0.1

NW Wales

-2.8

-0.6

2.2

5.2

0.2

0.4

Wales

-0.4

0.2

1.1

2.4

-0.2

-0.2

Source: ONS (NOMIS)

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5. Evaluation framework This section sets out the framework that will be used as a basis for the evaluation.

Section summary The evaluation team will collect and analyse a wide range of qualitative and quantitative data with a view to answering a series of questions relating to (a) how effectively NWC has been managed and delivered, and (b) what the outcomes of the project have been.

The framework that follows is split into two parts: • •

Part 1: Process evaluation: How well is the project being managed and delivered? What can be improved? What have been the main lessons learnt?

Part 2: Outcomes evaluation: What has the project achieved? What has been the results and impact of the project on participants?

Within these two parts, the framework sets out: • • • •

(A) The questions the evaluation will seek to answer (the ‘evaluation questions’); (B) The indicators and / or type of data that will be used to answer those questions; (C) The sources of information from which those indicators will be collected; (D) The timing: when the data will be collected and/or analysed.

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5.1. Part 1: Process evaluation – how was the project managed and delivered?

(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

1.1

Quantitative analysis of project outputs and results by:

•

Were the project outputs and results achieved? If not why?

• •

Local authority Target groups

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team.

July 2012 February 2013 February 2014

A supplementary contextual analysis will also be provided which takes account of results which have been ‘superseded’ and ‘over-written’ in the WEFO returns by later results achieved by the participant at a higher level or via another provider Qualitative data to supplement output and results analysis, focussing on reasons for output patterns: • • •

Success factors accounting for strong performance Barriers faced in achieving under-performing targets and profiles Discussion of profiling, ‘deferred’ outputs and rates of output maturation

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(D) Timing / reporting Analysis for reports in:

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

1.2

Cost-benefit analysis of project output and results against spend, aggregated analysis and disaggregated by:

•

How efficiently were project outputs and results achieved?

• •

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team.

(D) Timing / reporting Analysis for reports in: July 2012 February 2013 February 2014

Local Authority Output type / provider (where appropriate)

Benchmarking of cost-benefit analyses with similar Priority 1 programmes where data is accessible and comparable.

Qualitative data to supplement cost-benefit analysis, focussing on: • • •

1.3

Could outputs and results have been achieved in another way, more efficiently or more effectively?

• • • •

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

Success factors accounting for efficient and effective delivery of outputs.

Barriers faced in achieving efficiency and effective provision Wider structural considerations, such as procurement issues, ‘market’ maturity, demand-led provision, etc.

Qualitative data on: •

•

The effectiveness and efficiency of project management and delivery structure – regional and local Delivery and commissioning mechanisms – regional and local Effectiveness of the referral processes used - regional and local Which delivery models have experienced greatest levels of efficiency and effectiveness and why?

Are there transferable lessons learnt?

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

1.4

Qualitative data on:

•

How efficient and effective were the regional and local project management processes in terms of project planning, implementation and review?

AND How did the existence and activities of the Regional Team and Regional activities add-value to the management and delivery of the project?

• • • • • • • • • •

Commonality and clarity of strategic objectives across the 4 LAs Commonality and clarity of purpose in operational planning.

Regularity and efficiency of meetings to plan and review – regionally and locally Quality of support and guidance provided – regionally and locally Effectiveness and appropriateness of the soft outcome monitoring tools used (Work Star) Which delivery models have experienced greatest levels of efficiency and effectiveness and why?

Has the diversity of delivery models posed challenges?

What other challenges in planning, implementation and review have been encountered?

Which delivery models have experienced greatest levels of efficiency and effectiveness and why?

Are there transferable lessons learnt?

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Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

(D) Timing / reporting Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

1.5

Quantitative analysis of the data available on the referrals in and out of the project; aggregated analysis and disaggregated by:

•

How effectively and efficiently has NWC worked integrated with / added value to other support provided to the target groups at a Local Authority and Regional level?

• • •

July 2012 February 2013 February 2014

Local Authority Output type / provider Target Group •

Qualitative data on: •

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team.

The range, quality and efficiency of relationships developed with partner organisations – regionally and locally

•

•

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(D) Timing / reporting Analysis for reports in:

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers Interviews with partner organisations / providers Interviews with referral organisation – in and out of NWC

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

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5.2. Part 2: Outcomes evaluation – what has the project achieved?

(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

2.1

Quantitative analysis of project results and soft outcome monitoring data (Work Star) by:

•

How have individual participants benefited from the support provided?

• • •

Local authority Target groups Regression analysis of the monitoring data (including soft outcomes)

Qualitative data from project staff to supplement the quantitative analysis of project results and soft outcome monitoring data. With a focus on: • • • • • •

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team.

Effectiveness of engagement Effectiveness of the type / range of support provided Overcoming social barriers Developing skills (social and employment related) Improving job prospects Gaining employment

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(D) Timing / reporting Quarterly analysis to be undertaken by WH Detailed analysis and interpretation for reports in: July 2012 February 2013 February 2014

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

2.1

Qualitative data from participants to supplement result analysis and soft outcome data and to assess the ongoing impact of the support provided. With a focus on:

•

Interviews with a sample of ~35044 participants

•

Focus groups with a sample of participants (6 per evaluation round)

• • • • • •

Engagement Type / range of support provided Overcoming social barriers Developing skills (social and employment related) Improving job prospects Gaining employment

(D) Timing / reporting Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Dec 13 Round 3: Dec 14

These element will also include an analysis which takes account of results which have been ‘superseded’ and ‘over-written’ in the WEFO returns by later results achieved by the participant at a higher level or via another provider.

44

354 interviews (selected at random) will be required to achieve a confidence level of 95% (with a confidence interval of 5%) on the findings of the interviews with participants. This anticipates 4,555 individuals participating in the project.

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

2.2

What are the longer-term benefits to participants?

Qualitative and quantitative data from participants to explore the longer-term impact of the support provided. With a focus on:

•

AND

• • • • •

Follow-up (post exit) interviews with ~100 participants

•

Interviews with a sample of ~35045 participants

•

Focus groups with a sample of participants (6 per evaluation round)

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

What happens to participants once they have left the NWC project?

2.3

Has the project been successful in terms of introducing a change of culture for many participants from one of dependency to one of sustainable personal development?

Continued engagement Overcoming social barriers Developing skills (social and employment related) Improving job prospects Gaining and maintaining employment

Qualitative data from participants on: • •

how they have benefited from the support provided vis-a-vis support that they have received in the past (if any); and their potential to exit a supported environment / to become more independent

Qualitative data from NWC staff to supplement the data collected from participants.

(D) Timing / reporting Round 1: Dec 13 Round 2: Dec 14

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Dec 13 Round 3: Dec 14

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

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354 interviews (selected at random) will be required to achieve a confidence level of 95% (with a confidence interval of 5%) on the findings of the interviews with participants. This anticipates 4,555 individuals participating in the project.

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

2.4

Quantitative analysis of the output and result:

•

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team.

Qualitative data from NWC staff to supplement the analysis of the monitoring data.

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

Quantitative analysis of monitoring data (including soft outcomes) to assess:

•

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team.

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Analysis for reports in: July 2012 February 2013 February 2014 Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

What has been the impact on the employers that have participated in the project?

• •

Number of employers assisted Number of employers adopting or improving equality and diversity strategies and monitoring systems by Local Authority area

(D) Timing / reporting Analysis for reports in: July 2012 February 2013 February 2014

Analysis by employer characteristics data including: size of business, location of business (postcode), age of owner, sector, etc.

2.5

Has the project been successful in terms of increasing the emphasis on helping older people and people who have a learning disability to move on to mainstream employment?

• •

The proportion of participants in the relevant categories The progress made by relevant participants.

Qualitative data from project staff to supplement the quantitative analysis

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

2.6

Has the project been successful in terms of achieving a much higher profile for addressing employment needs when people with social care needs become engaged with Social Services and partner agencies?

Qualitative data from project staff and senior staff and officials within the participating Local Authorities.

•

Has the project been successful in terms of recruiting a number of older people as mentors to support young people with pursuing particular trades or employment?

Quantitative data – the number of older people recruited as mentors

•

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

Qualitative data from project staff to supplement the quantitative analysis

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

Qualitative data from project staff and senior staff and officials within the participating Local Authorities.

•

Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Interviews with senior staff within LA Social Services Depts.

Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

2.7

2.8

Has the project been successful in terms of introducing a more flexible, community based approach to learning/employment which will engage those excluded from mainstream provision?

•

•

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Interviews with NWC staff and procured providers.

Interviews with senior staff within LA Social Services Depts.

(D) Timing / reporting Round 1: June 12 Round 2: Jan 13 Round 3: Jan 14

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(A) Evaluation Questions

(B) Indicator(s) and/or Data Type(s)

(C) Data Source

2.9

•

Quantitative analysis of location of the participants supported / results generated vis-a-vis the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation.

•

•

Monitoring of regional and local authority statistics on: o Economic inactivity and unemployment data o Economic activity rates - both DDA & also work-limiting o Economic activity rates - disabled

•

What has been the impact of the project on the NW Wales region and the Local Authority areas?

AND

(D) Timing / reporting

Monitoring data to be provided by Regional Team Welsh Government statistics (StatsWales)

Are there any links between changes to headline impact indicators and the support provided by NWC?

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6. Outline timetable This final section outlines when each of the subsequent phases of the evaluation will be undertaken.

Section summary The evaluation team will work towards producing interim evaluation reports in July 2012 and February 2013. The final report is due to the completed in February 2014.

The following table outlines the tasks that will be undertaken by the evaluation team together with when they are scheduled to take place.

What Ongoing analysis of monitoring data

Round 1

When An analysis of the data captured within the project monitoring database including data on soft-outcomes and distance travelled by participants.

Interviews with strategic stakeholders and partners Interviews / focus groups with NWC staff and procured providers Interviews with a sample of participants (~100) Visits to NWC centres / focus groups with participants (at least 1 per Local Authority area – 6 in total) Policy and strategy update Analysis and reporting

July2012 July 2012 July 2012

Interim evaluation (report 2)

September 2012

Interviews with strategic stakeholders and partners Interviews / focus groups with NWC staff and procured providers

Policy and strategy update Analysis and reporting

December 2012 December 2012 January – February 2013 January – February 2013 January – February 2013 February 2013 February 2013

Interim evaluation report (report 3)

February 2013

Interviews with strategic stakeholders and partners Interviews / focus groups with NWC staff and procured providers

Policy and strategy update Analysis and reporting

December 2013 December 2013 January – February 2014 January – February 2014 January – February 2014 February 2014 February 2014

FINAL EVALUATION REPORT (report 4)

February 2014

Interviews with a sample of participants (~150)

Round 2

Visits to NWC centres / focus groups with participants (at least 1 per Local Authority area – 6 in total) Follow-up (post exit) interviews with participants (~50)

Interviews with a sample of participants (~150)

Round 3

Quarterly

Visits to NWC centres / focus groups with participants (at least 1 per Local Authority area – 6 in total) Follow-up (post exit) interviews with participants (~50)

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July – August 2012 August 2012 August 2012

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The evaluation team will be flexible in terms of how and when data is going to be collected from participants. Our intention is to select the participants who will participate in the one-to-one interviews element of the fieldwork (~350 participants over the lifetime of the evaluation) at random from the database provided by the Regional Management Team. Once those to be interviewed have been identified, we will consult with the NWC team and staff in question in order to ascertain the best way in which to undertake that interview in light of their individual circumstances. The options available include a telephone interview and (resource permitting) an interview at one of the NWC centres / locations.

We will also consult with the NWC teams when organising the focus groups with participants which we anticipate will be undertaken at NWC centres / locations.

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Evaluation of the New Work Connections Project | Inception Report & Evaluation Framework

Appendix 1: Selected context statistics Economic Activity Rate (working age 16-64)

Employment Rate (Aged 16-64)

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Economic Activity Rate (disabled aged 16 - 64)

Economic activity rate aged 16-64 - both DDA & also work-limiting

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% who are economically inactive (working age 16-64)

% of economically inactive long-term sick

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Enterprise births and deaths in NW Wales 2008 – 2010

Active enterprises in NW Wales 2008 – 2010

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