Brief Reflections for the Year 2019

BRIEF REFLECTIONS FOR THE YEAR 2019 - Dr. J. Venkateswarlu

1.

SW MONSOON (2019)

Of the total monsoon rains, SW monsoon contributes upto 80%, the remaining 20% from

-

Coastal Karnataka

-

Saurashtra and Kutch

In all, 27 of the 36 meteorological subdivision

NE monsoon, India received SW monsoon

received higher rainfall than in 2018. For the

rainfall of 9683 mm, a departure of +10% from

second consecutive year, the NE region saw

Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall. Till October

lower rainfall with 1114.8 mm. The NMMT

2019 the rainfall was 84% of the normal SW

(Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura)

monsoon.

divisions experienced it, fourth lowest rainfall since 1901.

Thirty main reservoirs in south India (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Kerala, saw 10% average full and the rest 66%

The 2019 season saw relatively lower rainfall in

fill of total live capacity by October.

four other subdivisions being (11th lowest)

Konkan and Goa (4385.8 mm) and west Madhya Pradesh (1384 mm) received their highest rainfall in SW monsoon since 1901 to 2019, five other meteorological subdivisions saw relatively

-

Haryana

-

Delhi

-

Chandigarh

Others include,

high rainfall order being, -

Madhya Maharashtra

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Jharkhand (13th lowest)

-

East Rajasthan

-

West Uttar Pradesh (17th lowest)

-

Andaman and Nicobar Islands

-

Gangetic West Bengal (20th lowest)

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After drought of 2018, floods occurred in 10 states, worst being Kerala and Bihar. The SW monsoon subdivisional rainfall map of 2019 and that of NE monsoon are placed below.

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2.

CLIMATE CRISIS

With climate change its effect on selected crops is indicated below (Liza Blossom 2019).

Crop

Climate variables

Effect on crop

Rice

-

Rising temperature Fluctuating rainfall

•

Worldwide reduction (upto 10% in rice production and yield

Wheat

-

Increase in temperature

•

Overall Worldwide yield decrease by 6% particularly in north and coastal America and Europe. May increase by 4 to 5 % in East and Central Asia

Oats

-

Rise temperature

•

Crops can be damaged

Barley

-

Warming

•

Yields reduce by 3% - 17% notably in Europe

Corn

-

Increase in temperature

•

Yield reduce upto 10% in USA, Brazil, Ukraine

Sorghum

-

Rising temperature

•

Yield may be reduced upto 10%

Sugarcane

-

Variable

•

Positive effect in Europe

•

Negative effect in Africa and Asia

Chickpea

-

Drought

•

Need to evolve strains to the threats of climate crisis in India

Soybean

-

Variable

•

Positive effect in USA

•

Negative effect in Europe

Rapeseed

-

High temperature Reduced rainfall

•

Yields suffer in most parts of the World

Oil palm

-

High temperature Reduced rainfall

•

Profoundly reduced yields, particularly Indonesia, Brazil, Peru and Columbia

Cotton

-

Rise in temperature Reduced rainfall

•

Rise in temperature benefit in India, China and Turkey

•

Reduced rainfall may affect yields in Pakistan, China, Australia and West USA

Cassava

-

Any change

•

Tolerant

Coffee

-

Temperature rise

•

May suffer in yield particularly in Brazil, Vietnam

Bananas

-

Warming

•

Yield decline over years in India, Brazil, Philippines

Oranges

-

Reduced rainfall

•

Decline in yields in Mediterranean region, Florida in USA

Wine grapes

-

Variable

•

Survives because of great diversity

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in

Malaysia,

3.

COMBATING CIMATE

(c) Global Climate Emergency

CRISIS

In a study by 11,258 scientists from 153 countries (Ripple et al 2019) identified increase

(a) Global Carbon Atlas (NASA) Country

in surface temperature of global surface and

Emission percolation (2017) – Tonnes of CO2

ocean heat and continuing. They indicated a rise in meat consumption and increased Air traffic and reduced global tree cover.

Qatar

49.18

Kuwait

25.24

UAE

24.66

USA

16.24

of Andhra Pradesh. He said from a threshold

Russia

11.76

level of 20 gms / kg soil, presently only 5 g / kg

Japan

9.48

China

6.98

desertification and bring a climate resilence.

India

1.64

Slogan, then is “Save Forest Save Nature”

On another occasion, Ravi Prabhu (2019) talked of biomass carbon energy in Ananthapur district

soil is available. One option is to move to agroforestry. Thus, it is possible to reverse

Forests / Trees provide Food, Oxygen, Rain and Ecological (b) Global shift from Fossil Fuels to Clean Energy • Renewables

are

growing

and

balance

Soil

conservation

and

Timber.

getting

Cheaper (e.g. Solar Energy)

(d) World Food Day

• Cost of rooftop solar is competitive (solar

-

grid parity)

Meenakshi Sushma, 2019

On 16th October 1945, FAO was founded and

• Remarkable progress in energy storage

16.10.2019 is World Food Day. Unfortunately,

(USA, Japan, Germany)

14.8% of world population (195.9 million) are

• The electric grid market is booming

undernourished. India is no better. Of the 119

(waiving/cutting sales tax in China)

countries studied for hunger index, India stands

• Transportation is more efficient and public

at 102 below, Pakistan (94), Nepal (73),

transit is growing (huge investments in

Bangladesh (86) and Sri Lanka (46) during 2019.

public transportation) • Energy efficiency is improving and saving

India, on its own, developed some programmes

money (saving upto 50%)

aiming at nutritional security besides food security. It started with a focus on pearlmillet

“All these lead to a safe and sustainable

and early part of this country and now “Poshan

future – Varun and Krishnan (2019)”

Abhiyaan” – Flagship” programme as a partner in FAO’s Zero Hunger with healthy diets for nutrition and the sustainable development goals 4

with key nutritive interventions and strategies.

generated with the use of fertiliser nitrogen.

With 3 years, a mere 30% of the project funds

Also there

were used.

eutrophication of water bodies with inflow of

was a

growing concern in

phosphorus through sewage and even soil erosion.

I am to bring your notice the much earlier

Phosphate

inducted

nutrients

disorders (e.g. Zinc deficiency) were noted in

efforts of PV Satheesh on rainfed millets for

some areas.

food and nutritional security in Zaheerabad (Medak district), Telangana. Very proud the team won the Equator Prize for 2019 by UNDP

Soil is a living system and healthy soil can be

for their rainfed millet innovative programme.

achieved with adequate soil organic matter (SOM) which is needed for survival and normal activities of soil biota that are mostly

(e) Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF)

heterotrophic and useful in nutrient and water management.

TOP FARM SCIENTISTS ON ZERO BUDGET NATURAL FARMING (ZBNF)

Extensive use of chemicals deplete SOM and

AND POILCY PAPER OF NAAS (2019)

lead to sterile soils losing these synergistic. In other words without adequate SOM would lead to

A few years ago when an attempt was made to

JS

Kanwar

to

systems.

So

dependence on fertilizers to alternatives.

association of India (FAI) called Drs. M.S. and

production

business as usual has to change from sole

launch non-chemical farming, the fertilizer Swaminathan

unsustainable

Palekar’s ZBNF is one approach; which is in

the

practice by some farmers in the productive

headquarters to address the media on the

medium to high rainfall soils of Vidarbha. At this

indispensability of fertilizers in sustainable crop

stage, we like to reiterate that research is not a

production. At that point in time GOI was

proprietary product of Government funded

ready to invest in non-chemical/organic farming

agencies. It could be well within the realm of

on a Pilot scale and that was thwarted.

Civil societies as well as individuals. Even the results of Government funded research are not

Globally there is a growing concern on

adequately/universally adopted even by the

excessive use of fertilizers, nitrogen and

Government agencies. Most of the results of

phosphorus (urea and DAP). The increasing

research are site specific. If ZBNF (a labour

pollution of soil with nitrogen was a serious

intensive, but less costly approach) is not

concern in Europe and in Germany for instance

ideal/adequate,

Government started funding to de-toxicate

alternative

non-chemical

approach could be considered.

nitrogen in farming soils so as to retrieve the soil health and make it live with vibrant and

For instance, in Midwest, north America with

useful soil biota. Added to this is the problem of

the chemical agriculture lead to dust bowl. The

nitrous oxide, a persistent greenhouse gas, 5

no-till agriculture was found to be the answer

So we like to state that research is not, repeat

with more and more stubbles left over and with

not, a proprietary product of Government

much reduced use of fertilizers. In our country,

funded agencies. The research results are site

the rainfed rice production with bueshening

specific and not universal. But the principles are

during early growth phase and leaving residues

widely acceptable. ZNB farming aims at non-

of rice stalks at harvest is an excellent example

chemical agriculture. At best, we accept the

of non-chemical farming. Growing a legume in

principle and adapt alternative forms. If such an

the crop production/rotation and taking deep

approach is not agreeable, we may adopt a mix

rooted crops (castor in Telangana and Niger in

wherein we largely depend on inputs that are

Eastern Ghats) in rotation allowing the roots to

locally available and use little of the external

slough off other examples. Use of blue green

inputs during the first few years of the change.

algae for paddies, green manure or green leaf manure of tree loppings (e.g. Gliricidia, Pongamia)

So, aim at moving from dependence to

are other useful examples.

independence in our production systems.

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