WHY TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATION IS THE KEY TO NATIONAL SECURITY
during his tenure as Chairman of the congressionally mandated National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI). On the Commission, Schmidt led a bipartisan effort to assess the strategic implications of AI and create a national roadmap. Later, he combined this experience and thinking into the notion of “innovation power,” which holds that technological innovation is critical to a nation’s strength in the 21st century.
Although mandated by Congress to last only three years, the NSCAI transformed the ways in which Washington, and the United States, understood AI, its challenges, and its opportunities. The Commission’s work finished with the completion of its final report, but the team worked so well together, and the need for their expertise remained so pressing, that it was decided that it should continue. But in what form?
Dr. Henry Kissinger had an idea. In the 1950s, he had led the Rockefeller Brothers Fund Special Studies Project (SSP). Initiated by Nelson Rockefeller, the project gathered experts from business, military, and academia and produced reports on U.S. foreign policy, national security, and domestic issues, including education and economic inequality. Its impact reverberated through the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford administrations, shaping policy for decades.
Schmidt knew Kissinger well as, though in his nineties, the former Secretary of State had become fascinated with the effects of emerging technologies on global politics. Kissinger concluded that, to safeguard democratic values and provide international stability, the United States needed to engage thoughtfully with new technologies. In 2019, Kissinger observed that, “Artificial intelligence holds remarkable promise for advancing human progress and addressing some of the most pressing challenges of our time.”
Kissinger and Schmidt, along with Daniel Huttenlocher, Dean of the MIT Schwarzman College of Computing, co-authored the book “The Age of AI: And Our Human Future” in 2021. Kissinger suggested to Schmidt that the SSP model be revived, to focus this time on AI and the threat from China. Schmidt agreed and brought the team that he had led on the NSCAI to this new project and endeavor. Today, SCSP explores how AI and other emerg-
“America maintains a technological, economic, and national security edge. But the edge is razor thin.”
ing technologies can enhance national competitiveness and continues the work of its intellectual predecessors by convening thought leaders to advance U.S. technological competitiveness in a rapidly changing world. SCSP is dominating and driving the discussion surrounding the nation’s technological landscape. The organization’s work is organized into six core panels, each focused on a distinct aspect of America’s competitiveness, from foreign policy to military readiness.
All are working towards a shared goal: ensuring that America enters the next decade as the established leader in technological innovation. The United States is at a pivotal moment and the decisions made today will shape the future for generations. Now is the time for the United States to rediscover its historic optimism and resilience, and win the technology competition with China.
OVER 400 MILLION WEEKLY ACTIVE USERS OF CHATGPT IN EARLY 2025
100 MILLION CHATGPT USERS WITHIN FIRST 2 MONTHS
OVER 15 BILLION AI-GENERATED IMAGES SINCE 2022
Domain Knowledge
$15.7 TRILLION IS THE MAXIMUM PROJECTED CONTRIBUTION THAT AI WILL MAKE TO GLOBAL GDP BY 2030
ALPHAFOLD PREDICTED STRUCTURES FOR 200M+ PROTEINS
IN 2020, 15.AI ALLOWED USERS TO GENERATE CONVINCING CHARACTER VOICES USING MINIMAL TRAINING DATA, POPULARIZING AI VOICE CLONING
2020
SAW DEEPMIND’S AI OUTPERFORM RADIOLOGISTS IN THE DETECTION OF BREAST CANCER
2020 SAW THE FIRST AI CO-AUTHOR OF A BOOK, WHEN GPT-3 WROTE “PHARMAKO-AI”
$432,500: THE PRICE OF THE FIRST AI-GENERATED ARTWORK TO BE SOLD AT AUCTION
IN 2023, RESEARCHERS USED AI TO IDENTIFY NEW ANTIBIOTIC COMPOUNDS, ACCELERATING DRUG DISCOVERY AND ADDRESSING ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE
IN 2023, A MIDJOURNEYGENERATED IMAGE OF POPE FRANCIS WEARING A WHITE PUFFER COAT BECAME THE FIRST VIRAL DEEPFAKE
From Cold War Strategies to AI Dominance
Ylli Bajraktari discusses his path to SCSP, the organization’s successes, and the future of AI. _
BY JACKIE ALLDER
In 2016, Dr. Eric Schmidt arrived at the Pentagon and began a second act as a public servant. Leveraging his experience as Google’s CEO, Schmidt became the Founding Chairman of the Defense Innovation Board, an advisory group organized by the Secretary of Defense, the late Dr. Ash Carter. Schmidt and the members of the Board pushed the Department of Defense to adopt commercial best practices, modernize its software, and embrace emerging technologies to meet the needs of the future of warfare.
Two years later, another call came. This time, it was from the then-chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Mac Thornberry. Congress was setting up the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) to make recommendations to the President and Congress on AI and other advanced technologies for national security purposes. The NSCAI comprised key technology leaders, including Safra Catz from Oracle, Andy Jassy, who at that time was the CEO of AWS, Eric Horvitz from Microsoft, José Marie Griffiths from Dakota State University, Kenneth Ford from the Florida Institute for Human & Machine Cognition, and many more. This was one of the first public-private efforts set up by the U.S. Congress to look at the ways America needed to stay ahead of this critical technology.
A Commission Lays the Groundwork for the United States to Embrace AI
For nearly three years, Schmidt led the NSCAI, building a team of future AI experts across both private industry and federal agencies. He was assisted by his Executive Director, Ylli Bajraktari, who had recently finished serving as Chief of Staff to the National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster. While private-sector recruitment was
“We are in a generational competition with China, and if we lose here, we will lose on everything.”
seamless, securing government talent required borrowing personnel from various agencies. These requests typically take months, but in this case, they were approved almost immediately.
“Everybody understood the criticality of winning on AI,” Bajraktari explained. “We are in a generational competition with China, and if we lose here, we will lose on everything.”
Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which struck midway through Bajraktari’s tenure, the NSCAI team never stopped working. In March 2021, they delivered the commission’s final report—a 756-page document Bajraktari calls “the country’s first national security document focused on technology strategy.”
The directive for Congress was clear: “The United States should invest what it takes to maintain its innovation leadership, to responsibly use AI to defend free people and free societies, and to advance the frontiers of science for the benefit of all humanity. AI is going to reorganize the world. America must lead the charge.”
This was not one of those reports that sank without a trace. Instead, it sent shockwaves across
How to Spend Three Days in Washington, DC
If you’re heading to Washington, DC, for the SCSP AI+ Expo, you might be wondering how to make the most of your trip. The Expo runs from Monday, June 2 to Wednesday, June 4, with doors opening at 9:30 AM on Monday. We’ve curated a flexible itinerary perfect for exploring DC around the Expo schedule. BY AMY MOELLER
D AY ONE
3 PM _ Check into your hotel (or stash your luggage). Still need a place to stay? For museum-hopping, the Kimpton Hotel Monaco and Riggs are near the National Mall. If you’re into nightlife, consider staying closer to Dupont Circle, 14th Street, or Adams Morgan at such spots as the Dupont Circle Hotel, Hotel Madera, the Line DC, or the Viceroy. If you’re bringing your brood, the Lyle offers suites with kitchenettes, which can come in handy. Or, base yourself along the water at the Wharf, one of DC’s newest developments; choices include the InterContinental and the Pendry
3:30 PM _ Start with museums and galleries. The National Museum of Natural History is the most popular of the Smithsonian institutions (it had 3.9 million visitors in 2024). It closes at 5:30 PM, but you can hit the highlights during this time. From there, head to the National Portrait Gallery—it’s about a 10-minute walk and stays open until 7 PM. Forward planners might consider the National Museum of African American History and Culture or the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden (the Basquiat × Banksy exhibit is on through October), both of which close at 5:30 PM and require free timed-entry passes. If you’re looking for something a little different, head to the International Spy Museum (open until 6 PM most days, and 7 PM on Saturdays), or check out an immersive art experience at the Artechouse (open until 10 PM, closed Tuesdays).
7:30 PM _ By now, you’ve worked up an appetite. All-Purpose offers Italian cuisine and brick-oven pizza, while Daikaya has some of the best ramen around. Maybe you’re a big fan of chef and humanitarian José Andrés? His Spanish restaurant Jaleo—an OG of the chef’s restaurant roster—is a block from the National Portrait Gallery.
9:30 PM _ If you’re up for it, end the night with a drink and a view. A favorite spot is the rooftop bar at the Hotel Washington, called VUE. Cocktails there aren’t cheap, but the view is hard to beat.
D AY TWO
9 AM _ If you’re wanting to pack a lot of tourism punch into this day, we suggest a breakfast that’s grab-and-go. DC’s bagel scene is hot! There’s Bagels Etc. near Dupont Circle; Pearl’s Bagels in downtown DC near the Convention Center; and Call Your Mother with locations in Logan Circle, Capitol Hill, Georgetown, DC’s West End, and more. For breakfast burritos, try Baker’s Daughter if you’re staying downtown, or Surfside’s Dupont taco stand.
10 AM _ After breakfast, it’s a choose-your-ownadventure. First: Take note of any festivals or parades happening on your travel dates. Beyond that, take your pick: [1] Take a hike through Rock Creek
CHEAT CODE
Although not all of DC’s incredible museums and galleries are part of the Smithsonian Institution, its map of museums can help you plan your museumhopping route.
Park or spend the day at the National Zoo (it’s free to get in and the pandas are back!). Or, do both: One of Rock Creek Park’s entrances is just a few blocks from the zoo. For lunch in between, Duke’s Counter, right outside the zoo’s main Connecticut Avenue entrance, serves burgers, beer, and other casual favorites; [2] Take a Tower Climb tour at the National Cathedral—it’s physically challenging but offers some really cool views of the city. (Call or go online to book your tour in advance.) Afterwards, give your legs a reprieve; hop into a cab or Uber and head to Georgetown. You can grab a picnic lunch at Green Almond Pantry and a bench at Georgetown Waterfront Park to snack alfresco while watching the boats and rowers go by. For a sit-down meal, Lutèce is a trendy French bistro that The New York Times named one of the 50 most exciting restaurants in America; Filomena is a fun, family-friendly Georgetown classic, decorated to the nines for various holidays; and Martin’s Tavern is the very spot where JFK proposed to Jackie (in booth number three, to be exact). After lunch, shop or stroll your heart out—Georgetown is a great neighborhood for that; [3] Get out on the water! For tremendous views of the city from the river, hop on a boat: There are picnic boats for rent at GoBoat, Vintage Yacht Charters, and a
Georgetown party boat called the Potomac Tiki Club. For something more active, rent a stand-up paddleboard or a kayak at the Wharf Boathouse or the Key Bridge Boathouse in Georgetown. Or simply hop on the Potomac Water Taxi for a quick trip from the Wharf or Georgetown to Alexandria, which Conde Nast named third Best Small City in the US; or [4] Pick up where you left off yesterday with more museum-hopping. Besides yesterday’s list, consider the Renwick Gallery, or head over to the Smithsonian’s epic National Air and Space Museum (free timed-entry passes required).
GO ROGUE
Feel like we’ve missed something? If you want to switch things up a little, visit Washingtonian.com to check out our list of the 100 Best Things to Do in Washington, DC—including more hidden gems, and the area’s bustling live music scene.
5 PM _ It may be early for dinner, but the next excursion on the list is a three-hour tour, so it’s time to eat. You could snag an early reservation for dinner, but we suggest taking advantage of local happy hour deals. Depending on where you’re staying (the tour after this will likely pick you up at your hotel), we suggest trying one of these happy hours with food deals. On 14th Street, Salazar's 4 to 7 PM weekday happy hour menu includes $5 tacos and $30 pitchers of margaritas. With locations in Dupont and Penn Quarter, Boqueria has $2-12 tapas and discounted sangria from 3 to 6 PM. In Shaw, Ghostburger technically only discounts their beer and cocktails for their 4 to 7 PM daily happy hour, but the build-your-own burgers start at just $9, so it’s worth considering.
7:30 PM _ Any local will tell you the best way to see the monuments is by night. Perfect Private Tours and Transportation’s private night-time monuments tours of DC host groups of up to 10 people. The tour includes nearly a dozen stops, and lasts three hours. Granted, at 7:30 PM in the summer you won’t exactly be starting the tour under the stars, but midway through, you’ll be catching the monuments in the moonlight.
D AY THREE
10 AM _ After a big day, slow down with a late start and a long brunch. Le Diplomate is a favorite of tourists and locals alike (our food critic says “the move” here is to order a single delicious pancake in addition to your dish of choice), but make a reservation in advance. A couple of other fun options include the new Uncaged Mimosas with its more than two dozen kinds of—you guessed it—mimosas, plus over-the-top (read: Instagrammable) decor, and the patio at Iron Gate, which always feels special.
12 PM _ A post-brunch stroll will ease you out of that yearning for a post-brunch nap, and shopping makes such strolls even more fun. From Le Dip, check out the shops along 14th Street; otherwise, consider Miss Pixie’s in Adams Morgan for fun vintage finds, or CityCenterDC, a hub for luxury designer boutiques such as Chanel, Dior, and Tiffany & Co.
1 PM _ Let us suggest two great ways to cap off your DC trip, depending on whether you like your action on a field or a stage. You can head to Nationals Park for a baseball game, or you could catch the matinee performance of a play. With dozens of theaters in DC, there’s always something to see.
ADAPTED FROM → WASHINGTONIAN.COM / GUIDES / THINGS-TO-DO / HOW-TO-SPENDTHREE-DAYS-IN-WASHINGTON-DC-2
Very Best Restaurants
FAVORITE PLACES TO EAT IN DC, MARYLAND, AND VIRGINIA
You don’t need a celebration to justify going out to dinner. But it’s no secret that your dining dollar doesn’t go nearly as far as it used to, and you want your meal to be memorable even if it’s only dinner on a Tuesday. Here’s our ranked list of restaurants in DC, Maryland, and Virginia that not only wowed us with food but also with grace notes and value. These are 10 places worth celebrating.
The Red Hen
1822 FIRST ST. → NORTHWEST
This decade-old Italian spot in Bloomingdale exudes warmth and congeniality, nailing that mix of precision and laid-backness you hope for from a neighborhood restaurant. The rigatoni with sausage is famous for good reason, but sleeper hits abound, from the roasted eggplant crostini with Jimmy Nardello peppers to the seasonal cinnamon crunch gelato. This is the kind of restaurant you want to stick around forever.
STAFF PICK
Katie Fiergang
Le Diplomate
1601 14TH ST. → NORTHWEST
Stephen Starr’s brasserie is the ultimate one-size-fits-all restaurant. Dining with little kids or your elders? Splurging on a birthday seafood tower? In search of a midnight cheeseburger? The always-hopping place accommodates pretty much any scenario. Bistro classics—onion soup, mussels marinière, steak au poivre, creme brûlée—are executed beautifully, as are cocktails like the Clouseau, with fig-infused bourbon and plum bitters.
06
Chay
6351 COLUMBIA PIKE → FALLS CHURCH
Soulful noodle soups, colorful papaya salads, and a signature “clam dip” make this newcomer one of the best Vietnamese restaurants around. And, oh yeah, everything is vegan or vegetarian. The fragrant pho is enriched with mushrooms, fried shallots, and faux meats that chef Lan Tran makes from tofu and vegetables. The papaya salad? It’s topped with tofu jerky instead of pork floss. And the “clams” are fashioned from soy protein dressed in lime and vegetarian fish sauce.
07
NiHao
1550 CRYSTAL DR. → ARLINGTON
At Peter Chang’s National Landing small-plates spot— a spinoff of his Baltimore restaurant—you’ll find such Changian staples as scallion bubble pancake and Kung Pao chicken, but there’s so much more. Graze on housemade Szechuan sausage, mapo tofu with black beans, and scrambled eggs with tofu skin and jalapeños. And don’t forget a round of baijiu, China’s answer to Korean soju.
STAFF PICK
Jamie Tomberlin
1351 H ST. → NORTHEAST
There’s been so much action in Northeast DC’s restaurant scene that it’s easy to overlook places that have been around for years, such as Erik BrunerYang’s spare Cambodian/Taiwanese dining room. The caramel fried chicken from the early days is still very much a winner, but there’s always something exciting to try: gingery soup dumplings; smoky brisket with roti; and cocktails like the frothy Chinese Opera, with pisco, lemongrass, and apple shrub.
09
Ruthie’s All-Day
3411 FIFTH ST. S. → ARLINGTON
This all-day restaurant specializing in comfort classics and smoked meats is a crowd pleaser for every age. Who doesn’t love hotskillet cornbread with a big scoop of honey butter? When it comes to the meat and two (or three) plates, smoked brisket and sticky five-spice spare ribs are our mustorders. Brunches are just as satisfying for bacon-egg-andpimento-cheese sandwiches on milk bread and apple-pie pancakes with maple-poached fruit and whipped cream.
10
Hiraya/Kayu
1248 H ST. → NORTHEAST
At the daytime cafe Hiraya, pandan-infused lattes pair with Filipino-inspired pastries and fried-rice-and-egg plates. But chef Paolo Dungca’s modern take on Filipino cooking is best displayed upstairs at Kayu. Cassava cake turns savory with crab fat, jamón Ibérico, and trout roe, and a mushroom-dumpling soup offers a lighter, vegetarianfriendly take on traditionally porky pancit molo. You can order à la carte or settle in for a four- or eight-course tasting.
STAFF PICK
Sylvia Flute
Inspiring Generations of Talent
SCSP is taking the message of our technoeconomic competition with China to college campuses, while also partnering with Coursera. _ BY
JUDI KETTELER
When Dr. Ryan Carpenter visits students on college campuses as part of SCSP’s national security technology program (NatSec Tech), one of the first things he asks them is what they know about AI. They know a lot. After all, they’ve grown up as generative AI has developed, and they are now witnessing, in real-time, their professors wrestling with the role of AI in education. For these digital natives, getting quick answers and information from ChatGPT or Gemini has become second nature. STEM students are usually able to talk about the technology behind AI, while those in social and political science fields are already thinking about research and the policy implications of AI.
But, according to Carpenter, a former youth pastor who works as a Special Advisor for SCSP, most students don’t yet see the bigger picture. “Universities are really great at helping students build skills. They teach the what. We want students to think about why it all matters,” he says. He wants college students about to enter the workforce to recognize their crucial role in keeping the United States competitive with China and Russia. As AI and other emerging technologies reshape our world, these students will be at the forefront of this national project.
“Often, students haven’t had anyone offer that context before: that our country needs you to win this techno-economic competition,” he says. “To win, we need to make sure we’re training people for this economy and getting them in the right places. If we don’t do that, we won’t succeed as a nation.”
Dr. Nandita Balakrishnan (left) and Dr. Ryan Carpenter (right).
NatSec Tech Workshops Will Be Held Around the Country
The NatSec Tech University Workshops initiative at SCSP started two years ago, with a workshop at William & Mary in Virginia. Carpenter’s goal is to travel to a different university each month during the school year. “We’re really looking to visit innovation ecosystems,” he says. He aims to visit institutions that are key tech centers, where there is strong collaboration between academia, business, and government.
For example, last year, he traveled to the University of Tennessee (UT), Knoxville for a long weekend. He visited a 3D manufacturing facility and then went to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which maintains a tight relationship with UT. He spent time talking to faculty and staff and held a five-hour event for students. “It’s about 45 minutes of getting to know the students, an hour about how we got here, and then it’s interactive,” he says. “Lots of questions and talking about why these things matter so much.”
The message resonates with students, says Carpenter. They get excited when they realize they have the opportunity to play a role in shaping the future of AI. Some are already planning internships in Washington, DC, (SCSP also hosts events in DC throughout the school year and during the sum mer.) And of course, Carpenter’s been talking up the SCSP AI+ Expo all year. “Even if students aren’t able to make it to Washington for the Expo, the message is simple: Connect with us. Be part of this community.”
Brand New Training for Mid-Level Managers Working in National Security
SCSP has a broad range of education initiatives. While NatSec Tech is engaging the next generation, one of SCSP’s new initiatives is a partnership with Coursera, which launched in March, and targets the next generation of leaders in their organiza tions. The course is aimed at mid-level managers working at national security agencies. The deci sion to target this demographic was strategic and based on a need that SCSP saw. There are plenty of classes out there about AI fundamentals for stu dents or people new to the workforce. And there are working groups for senior leaders. “But there’s
“We need to make sure we’re training people for this economy and getting them in the right places.”
nothing in the middle,” says Dr. Nandita Balakrishnan, a Director for Intelligence at SCSP. “These managers will be the next group of leaders. They obviously understand the national security imperative, but they have gaps when it comes to AI.”
The course she and her team developed is almost entirely original content, Balakrishnan says, and is all about providing real-world tactical applications. The team designed each module to address different dimensions of AI use, whether someone is working in operations, human resources, acquisition, policy, or financial management.
Balakrishnan wants people who complete the course to remember a few key things. First, it is about understanding why AI matters for national security. That’s not a new concept, but it may be one they haven’t fully wrapped their heads around yet. She also sees this course as a chance for managers to use AI to upskill themselves. And finally, the course can help them learn ways to advocate for AI in their organizations. The course is designed as an entry point, and Balakrishnan is hoping that an initial wave of about 25,000 federal workers will complete it.
››› WHEN THE HISTORY OF INNOVATION is written, AI will be seen as one of the most transformative moments in mankind’s journey, akin to humans harnessing electricity or machines. “But not all nations agree on how AI should be used,” says Rama G. Elluru, Senior Director for Governance at SCSP. The United States has one vision, whereas countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have different ones. Already, China is using AI powered facial recognition software to strengthen its surveillance state.
Over the next decade, AI will be a crucial tool for economic growth, national security, and societal wellbeing. It can be a powerful asset for democracy, helping to usher in new opportunities for everyone and making sure our freedoms and our
privacy protections stay intact. Or it can be the ultimate weapon of an authoritarian regime. Preventing that from happening means aligning government, business, and academia on a unified vision for U.S. victory in the AI race. Each part of that collaboration has a crucial role to play. And the federal government can do a tremendous amount to either encourage or stifle innovation. Whichever nation leads in technology will determine who has the largest economy, the greatest prosperity, and the strongest military, Elluru says. And that technology will be exported, meaning that oppressive Chinese AI technologies could spread across the globe. Or, if the United States triumphs, prosperity and freedom can be spread. ›
Unleashing AI
to happen in the United States, there will have to be changes.
The United States suffers from outdated and unnecessarily burdensome regulations, which threaten AI’s potential in fields like biotech, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing. Removing bureaucratic obstacles is crucial to unlocking innovation and scaling breakthroughs. Currently, one of the areas where it might matter most is in building infrastructure.
“Energy is the first bottleneck we’re coming to,” says Abigail Kukura, Director for Future Technology Platforms. AI is a power hungry technology and the data centers that drive AI technologies consume immense amounts of energy. One single data center can demand one to five gigawatts of energy. There is already talk of a 10 gigawatt data center. To put this into perspective, one gigawatt, equal to one billion watts, can power a city of about 750,000 people. However, instead of distributing this energy across an entire city, a data center concentrates it within a single set of buildings. “The grid isn’t built to administer that,” Kukura says. Due to permitting challenges, just breaking ground can take three to four years, and it can take up to 10 years to build a transmission line. “Those timelines are not viable in a competition with China,” she says, “because China is already building them.” Thus, AI’s progress can be held back by insufficient power and data centers.
This makes modernizing U.S. energy infrastructure a national security imperative, as well as an economic necessity. A resilient, secure, abundant, and efficient energy supply will underpin our technological progress and military capabilities, not to mention the basic functioning of
Rama G. Elluru speaking at the Global Emerging Technology Summit 2023.
is rapidly acquiring vast amounts of data to fuel its AI ambitions. To stay ahead, the United States must establish a clear strategy to manage its data resources and ensure that AI models receive the necessary data.
Currently, much of our public data is fragmented and difficult to access, hindering its potential. An example is the fact that the U.S. Government holds scientific data from all the national labs. But it is siloed and often inaccessible to researchers, despite its transformative potential. Even data like failed clinical trials could be valuable. “AI could use that to predict the success of other trials,” Elluru notes. But this data resides within different government systems, which are not linked, and are hard for researchers to access or identify, meaning that they often lie unused. A critical national asset, which could have a transformative potential for AI researchers, is languishing. That must change. By organizing and prioritizing data resources, the United States can accelerate its AI innovation while ensuring data security.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The biggest obstacle in the race against China is time. While the United States leads in some areas, China is closing in. “If we want to ensure we are tech leaders globally, we need to unleash the AI innovation engine,” Elluru says.
AI has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of life in the United States, from economic growth to national security. By implementing these recommendations, the United States can create an environment that encourages innovation, protects its citizens, and ensures that AI serves the public good.
Abigail Kukura is a Director for Future Technology Platforms at SCSP.
The Race For AI
THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL SECURITY WILL not be shaped by technology alone but by the people who create and control it. Sir Alex Younger was the longest-serving Chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) since the 1960s, and he guided the organization through the technology revolution, shifting from the old-school espionage techniques of the 1990s to AI-driven intelligence operations. He experienced firsthand the rapid tech transformation and all its perils and possibilities, yet he remains optimistic. “I believe in human agency— that individuals can change things,” Younger said. “That’s my business.” Younger’s “business” started in 1991 when he joined MI6 after serving in the British Army. At that time, he said, spy tactics had been relatively unchanged since World War II.
“We had ways of being covert, which relied on whatever happens in one place isn’t connected or visible in another place so that you can have many different identities,” he said. Over the following 35 years, he saw
→ BRITAIN’S FORMER TOP SPY, SIR ALEX YOUNGER, SHARES HOW HUMAN COLLABORATION → AND TECHNOLOGY ARE SHAPING → THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL SECURITY.
BY → JACKIE ALLDER
that approach turned upside down. The internet and social media created a trove of personal data and information, accessible to some but hackable by many. The proliferation of mobile phones simplified location tracking. Facial recognition became widespread. The digitization of data enabled easy detection of patterns and anomalies.
“It’s a forbidding environment to work in ... but there are ways in which that new world offers opportunities. There’s nothing to be afraid of if you’re not afraid to change,” Younger said. And change he did. Younger transitioned from serving at operational posts in Europe and the Middle East to assuming the position of head of counter-terrorism for MI6 in 2009. His tenure included overseeing security for the 2012 London Olympics, a high-profile event that required unprecedented security measures. In 2014, his successes earned him a promotion to Chief of the intelligence service—a position with the codename “C.”
When he took over MI6, the agency was very different from the one he had joined two decades earlier. “The internet democratized the capabilities the intelligence community once had a monopoly on,” Younger said.
As Chief, he guided the agency into a world revolutionized by technology. Although the how of his work is classified, Younger freely shares the why: survival. “If we can’t adapt to an environment dictated by ubiquitous digitization, we’re toast,” he said.
While Younger planned to retire in 2019, he was asked to remain at MI6 through the Brexit negotiations. He left the agency in 2020, after providing the continuity needed during a change he has since described as “marginalizing” the United Kingdom and lessening its geopolitical influence on the world.
Younger said he doesn’t miss the
spy life, but he remains entrenched in the global security and technology issues that dominated the latter part of his career. He served on the board of Recorded Future, an AI-driven threat intelligence company that MasterCard acquired in late 2024. In February, Younger joined the advisory board of Datenna, a global provider of techno-economic intelligence on China.
He is a regular commentator with media outlets and think tanks and a strategic advisor to organizations like the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP). At SCSP, Younger’s geopolitical insights and national security expertise help the organization in its mission to ensure America’s competitiveness in AI and technology.
ing as its creators make out, it’s galvanized a reaction in the West,” he said. “DeepSeek demonstrates that this is a really dynamic space.”
Beyond jerking the West out of its complacency, DeepSeek proved that the “Made in China” approach works. Chinese talent—individuals who, in the past, would have come to the United States to work in Silicon Valley—developed the model in Hangzhou, China.
“The reality is that China has given itself huge advantages by taking a long-term approach, and through its centralized capabilities, aligning the ways and the means and the finance and the people,” Younger said.
While the West could not (and should not) mimic that approach, it has something better at its disposal,
→ IT’S A FORBIDDING ENVIRONMENT TO WORK IN → BUT
A GLOBAL COMPETITION: THE U.S. AND CHINA’S AI RACE
Younger has seen technology reshape everything, with its impact going far beyond national safety and security. It is now a defining factor in global power, and nowhere is this more evident than in the AI race between the United States and China.
While Silicon Valley has been at the forefront of AI development, leading development in deep-learning architecture and large language models, China leapt forward with the release, in early 2025, of DeepSeek’s AI-powered chatbot. While journalists and analysts rushed to explain DeepSeek’s impact on broader AI development and the world, Younger believed its launch sounded the alarm.
“DeepSeek was a great reminder for the United States; and while it’s not quite as cheap and power-spar-
according to Younger: a history of global alliances and public/private partnerships that have driven technology development for decades.
The United States has focused on the latter, most recently announcing the $500 billion Stargate Project. Private firms MGX, OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank, among other partners, have funded the initiative with backing from the U.S. Government. Through Stargate, multiple data centers will be constructed throughout the United States, providing the infrastructure necessary for long-term OpenAI development. It is a partnership designed to spark economic growth and bring new job opportunities to the United States while keeping America and the West at the forefront of AI development.
tively summon up the innovation necessary to stay ahead,” he said.
His firm perspective draws on direct experience with authoritarian governments. In fact, it was Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait that in part persuaded Younger to join the intelligence service, he said.
“I am an expert on autocrats and dictators, and I know that the thing that they fear beyond anything, beyond the power of the United States, beyond their own people, is alliances. It’s what democracies can do that autocrats cannot,” Younger said. “For me, it’s about the value of those partnerships and those alliances, and that’s absolutely nowhere more proven than in the tech space.”
not available—at least not publicly— it is a reality that has driven restrictive policies in America and abroad.
A self-described “securocrat,” Younger said he prefers a more measured approach but recognizes that too-strict policies limit opportunities.
“The much bigger threat would be an overly restrictive immigration policy that prevents us from getting the best and the finest into our programs,” he says. “Securocrats have successfully scared everyone into taking a much more cautious approach to collaboration and partnership internally, and that’s right—and I’ve been part of that call—but we must remember the search for talent is the ultimate arbiter of success.”
What’s the biggest driver to attract-
THERE ARE WAYS IN WHICH THAT NEW WORLD → OFFERS OPPORTUNITIES.
The U.S. Government’s work with Rhombus Power (see the interview with Rhombus’s CEO, Dr. Anshu Roy, on pages 36 and 37) is a more concrete example. Together, Rhombus and the U.S. military built an AI-powered tool to predict Taliban attacks in Afghanistan. They trained the network on indicators of potential assaults, leveraging a broad swath of data from the weather to satellite images. Naturally, humans still evaluated the results to determine the next steps, but the system excelled, hitting near 70% accuracy. While the program ended when the United States left Afghanistan in August 2021, it proved what a private/public partnership can achieve. Younger bluntly emphasizes the necessity of partnerships and alliances in winning the AI race. “We’re all going to suffer if we can’t effec-
THE HUMANITY OF TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
While AI has become the focal point in the race to technological supremacy, its scope extends beyond the tech itself to the search for talent. Building teams involves risks: China has long used its scientists and students to infiltrate Western programs and illegally obtain classified research. Russia, Iran, and North Korea, too, have sent spies to the United States.
Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and other prominent U.S. institutions even spoke publicly about warnings they had received from the FBI about intellectual property theft and espionage a few years back. This March, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley went on record to address the dangers of technological espionage by international students. While data on the threat of student spies is
ing talent? It’s simple, Younger said. “In the end, the killer advantage that we have is that people want to live in our countries. It’s quite prosaic, but it’s absolutely fundamental,” Younger said.
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
As we move toward the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which Younger predicts we will see within the next few years, the global economic, geopolitical, and military power scales will tip toward whichever side gets there first.
“The way you win this is by innovating faster than your opponent,” Younger emphasized. Although much is at stake, Younger’s perspective resonates: the people, and their ability to collaborate and innovate, will determine our success in the AI race and global security.
SuperpowerShowdown
BY → JOSEPH GUINTO
→ HOW CHINESE AI PROGRESS
CHALLENGES U.S. DOMINANCE, AND THE CASE FOR AN AMERICAN STRATEGIC PROGRAM.
SuperpowerShowdown
BEFORE DELVING INTO THE GEOPOLITICAL race for technological supremacy, it’s crucial to understand the distinction between the artificial intelligence (AI) prevalent today and the transformative potential of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Current AI, often referred to as “narrow AI,” excels at specific tasks for which it is trained. Examples abound, from language translation and image recognition to recommendation algorithms and the generative capabilities seen in models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Meta’s Llama. These systems operate within defined parameters, demonstrating intelligence in circumscribed domains. AGI, however, represents a fundamentally different paradigm. It refers to AI with human-level cognitive abilities across a wide range of tasks. An AGI would possess the capacity to understand, learn, and apply knowledge in ways comparable to a human being, exhibiting reasoning, problem-solving, and adaptability far beyond the scope of today’s narrow AI. As SCSP President and CEO, Ylli Bajraktari, writing in Foreign Policy, aptly puts it, generative AI tools like ChatGPT are akin to the Wright Brothers’ Kitty Hawk Flyer, while AGI will be more like the B-2 bomber—a revolutionary leap, not just an incremental improvement.
Dr. PJ Maykish, Vice President, Strategy, at the AI+ Compute & Connectivity Summit in 2025.
For now, that balance favors the United States. In recent years, the American private sector has led the way in AI innovation, producing top models like Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and Apple’s Apple Intelligence. And the big guys aren’t the only ones getting in on the game. In 2024, fueled by a surge in venture capital and other private investment, 1,073 AI companies were funded in the United States, according to Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Index. The same report found that the U.S. private investment in AI grew to $109.1 billion in 2024—roughly twelve times the amount invested in China.
The United States is also more successful than China in attracting global AI talent. Its deep capital pools, technical expertise, and business ecosystem have consistently drawn engineers, scientists, and developers from all nations.
which set ambitious milestones for 2025. The plan called for AI to be “the main driving force for China’s industrial upgrading and economic transformation,” and for China to develop AI with “autonomous learning ability,” capable of achieving “breakthroughs in many areas to obtain leading research results.”
Given the rapid progress demonstrated by their leading models, China may have already met those targets. Its next major goal, according to the plan, is just five years away.
“By 2030,” it states, “China’s AI theories, technologies, and applications should achieve world-leading levels, making China the world’s primary AI innovation center, achieving visible results in intelligent economy and intelligent society applications, and laying an important foundation for becoming a leading innovation-style nation and an economic power.” SUPERCOMPUTER COMPETITION,
a bold, ambitious national program that includes the private sector, academia, and government working together.
THE DAWN OF THE AGI ERA
U.S. innovations have dominated the global economy from the machine age to the modern digital era. Now, the world stands on the brink of a new and colossal change: AGI. AGI is not an incremental step forward; it represents a giant leap. While today’s generative AI can produce text, images, and other outputs, AGI is expected to exhibit far more sophisticated capabilities that mimic cognitive functions in humans. And that development is not a distant prospect—it is imminent.
CHINA’S NATIONAL PUSH FOR
China is not standing still. Stanford’s index reveals that China is making major strides in AI research, particularly in terms of the volume of publications and the number of AItrained professionals. In 2019, China accounted for a third of the world’s top AI researchers. Today, that figure has climbed to about half.
With a large population and fewer regulatory hurdles, China has the ability to rapidly scale its AI initiatives, making it an increasingly serious challenger to U.S. leadership. Additionally, China has made AGI a national priority, unlike the United States.
In 2017, China’s State Council created a blueprint for AI development,
To achieve these goals, China has set up at least two national programs dedicated to AGI. The governmentbacked Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence focuses on fundamental research and talent cultivation, with a goal of achieving breakthroughs in core AGI technologies. Meanwhile, the state-backed Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence is dedicated to building safe and controllable AGI systems, with a strong emphasis on cognitive science and neuroscience.
The United States, meanwhile, has no formal, large-scale national AGI program comparable to China’s dedicated efforts.
The Biden Administration developed some pilot programs for AI devel-
AGI
opment, but it did not invest in largescale, coordinated programs aimed explicitly at AGI leadership. The most significant U.S. AI program to date was created in 2018 under the first Trump administration. The $2 billion AI Next Campaign, run by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, focuses on developing “third wave” AI technologies, including contextual reasoning, explainability, and common sense, all of which are crucial stepping-stones toward achieving AGI.
But SCSP’s Senior Director for Future Technology Platforms David Lin argues that stepping-stones aren’t enough. To outpace China at this pivotal moment, he argues, the United States needs a more focused and ambitious national effort.
THE CASE FOR AN AMBITIOUS AMERICAN NATIONAL PROGRAM
AGI will not arrive all at once. Instead, it will likely come through a series of advances; an incremental climb to that high plateau of technological achievement. That progress is already underway, and is likely to come through the interplay of three dynamics.
First, higher levels of AI and, eventually, AGI may emerge through the continued scaling and refinement of today’s foundation models. U.S. companies are driving this trend. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google Gemini, and others are developing increasingly capable systems by training larger models on massive datasets and optimizing them with reinforcement learning and human feedback. These systems are demonstrating reasoning, planning, and the ability to generalize across tasks—core characteristics of more advanced AI. Second, new architectures and training methods inspired by cognitive science and
neuroscience are being developed. Leading U.S. research institutions are beginning to integrate advances from multiple disciplines—such as symbolic reasoning, memory augmentation, and biologically inspired computation—into next-generation models. This cross-pollination is expanding the boundaries of what AI systems can do, especially in open-ended, multistep reasoning tasks. Third, the fusion of multiple specialized systems into coordinated, agentic AI workflows is a promising near-term development. Instead of relying on a single model, firms are increasingly designing multi-agent systems where different AIs collaborate across domains.
The United States is already home to the commercial, academic, and defense ecosystems best suited to develop higher levels of AI and AGI in this multi-pronged way. But none of this progress is inevitable. Realizing leadership will require a coordinated national strategy: involving sustained investment, secure infrastructure, and mechanisms to steer development toward public benefit and national security through collaboration between government, industry, and academia. It will not be a matter of a single, sudden breakthrough. It will be a series of steps— many of which are happening now. If the United States aligns its scientific momentum with national priorities through a dedicated program, it has the opportunity not just to witness AGI’s arrival, but to shape it.
In September 1962, President John F. Kennedy addressed a crowd at Rice University in Houston, Texas, declaring his intention to launch one of the most ambitious programs in U.S. history—a mission to land men on the moon. That effort required immense national will and coordination. “We
choose to go to the moon … not because [it is] easy, but because [it is] hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win.”
Maykish argues that the case for launching an ambitious national program for AI and AGI is even clearer than the rationale for going to the moon, given the profound economic and security stakes involved.
The process of getting and staying ahead of China in this critical next-level AI technology, he suggests, requires a similar level of national commitment and strategic coordination as the Apollo project.
The key is going to be strategic co-
ordination. The United States must establish a clear framework where government, private industry, and academic institutions collaborate, focusing on specific, achievable milestones. That will require prioritization of certain core areas—like foundational research, ethical development, and scalable AI systems— and alignment with national defense and economic goals. The Apollo program was a bold, high-risk, high-reward endeavor. Maykish envisions something similar in scale and ambition for AGI. He proposes multiple, parallel strategic initiatives under the umbrella of a national program, going well beyond current pilot projects.
“Unlike the space race or supercomputer competition,” Maykish says, “AGI is not a pure hardware game, so more
→ IT’S ALSO ABOUT ESTABLISHING CLEAR POLICIES
TO PREVENT → ADVANCED
AI → FROM FALLING INTO THE WRONG HANDS
than one [ambitious national effort] is possible at an affordable cost. This would allow the United States to pursue multiple, diverse [strategic AI/AGI initiatives] concurrently, maximizing the chances of success.”
David Lin, Senior Director for Future Technology Platforms, at the AI+ Energy Summit in 2024.
Maykish also says these concurrent programs should be grounded in national security. For instance, he suggests establishing an “AGI cluster” near Washington, DC, where AGI applications could be developed for national advantage through focused government-led efforts. A military base setting, he argues, could also help accelerate progress by facilitating secure development and testing, potentially bypassing certain regulatory hurdles faced elsewhere.
The overall national project, Maykish says, could be overseen by an AI czar—similar to the role the Trump White House created during Operation Warp Speed to fast-track COVID-19 vaccine development—to ensure coordination across government, industry, and academia.
NATIONAL SECURITY AND ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The rapid advancement toward AGI presents incredible opportunities, but it also comes with serious risks. Maykish emphasizes the importance of both defensive and offensive strategies, including robust cybersecurity measures to protect systems from hacking. He also suggests the development of a “counter-prolifer-
ation playbook” that would identify current chokepoints in U.S. control for developing advanced AI systems.
“It’s also about establishing clear policies to prevent [advanced AI] from falling into the wrong hands, whether it’s an adversary trying to use it for malicious purposes or rogue actors trying to exploit weaknesses. We’d also need international agreements on the ethical use of [advanced AI], so we don’t end up in a race to develop weaponized AI that no one can control.”
Maykish suggests that the National Security Council be tasked with advising the President on strategies to mitigate AI-driven threats, including the potential for weaponized systems. This could also involve a counter-proliferation strategy aimed at preventing the spread of cutting-edge AI technologies to adversaries.
Intellectual property is another key concern. As AI technologies become increasingly valuable, the risks of intellectual property theft and cyber-espionage will likely increase. To address this, Maykish advises strengthening intellectual property protections, enhancing cybersecurity frameworks, and fostering international collaboration on research security. That kind of collaboration, though, may be unusual in the coming age of advanced AI, where the race for national superiority will be intense, and the stakes extraordinarily high. As that competition intensifies, one thing is certain: the push toward higher levels of AI and AGI is accelerating.
The Rush to Learn
A
Q&A WITH DR. ANSHU ROY
Rhombus is a company that provides AI-powered, predictive decision-support solutions for national security, defense, and critical industries. Its platform integrates multi-domain data, machine learning models, and human expertise to anticipate threats, optimize resource allocation, and enhance decision-making at speed and scale. In this Q&A, its founder and CEO, Dr. Anshu Roy, shares how AI-driven insights are transforming national security, from predicting invasions to combating fentanyl trafficking.
Q Can you share a bit about yourself and what inspired you to start Rhombus?
Rhombus CEO, Anshu Roy, speaking at SCSP's 2024 AI Expo.
A I grew up in India and came to the United States as a student. I loved the dynamism and innovative spirit of both countries. I’ve always loved the challenge of solving hard problems. After a project in Japan cleaning up a nuclear meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi, I realized the potential of AI-powered tools. I was inspired to apply that knowledge to national security and the hardest challenges. It was audacious and risky. I
began the company in a co-working space before moving to Moffett Field in California. There, I met Sam Araki, an 85-year-old Cold War legend, who took me under his wing and taught me how to knock on doors at the Pentagon. He gave me words to live by: “rush to learn,” which meant be innovative, make mistakes, learn from them, and keep getting better. I literally knocked on a door at the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental, an offshoot of the Department of Defense, in Silicon Valley. The man who answered was in charge, and he gave me a chance to prove our capabilities. Years later, he’s now a major general, and Rhombus is thriving, with hundreds of employees nationwide and the same spirit of innovation: rushing to learn.
Q _ Can you explain Rhombus’s AI platform, Guardian, and how it supports national defense and security?
A Working with national security enterprises, we’ve created AI-powered predictive decision support solutions—unified platforms that integrate multi-domain data, AI/machine learning models, and human expertise. These tools empower defense and security leaders to make better decisions, allocate resources, and anticipate threats early enough to get ahead of them. For example, we predicted Taliban attacks against our troops in Afghanistan, so on-ground commanders could preempt them.
Q Guardian predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine before it occurred. What types of data does it analyze to make such predictions?
A It’s a scenario where AI earned a seat in the Situation Room. We used machine learning to sift reams of all-domain data, so four months in advance we’d concluded that Putin would invade, almost to the day. We watched what the Russians
were doing and tracked myriad actions that, when aggregated effectively, became valuable predictors. Details like how weapons systems, purportedly moved for drills during the year, were left behind, or the spending behavior of Russian troops, caught our attention.
It was national security’s version of “The Big Short”—with AI, we identified patterns that wouldn’t have meant much to others or in isolation, but added up to a lot.
Q How accurate is Guardian compared to a human being?
A It’s startingly more accurate, and the warning comes earlier. However, policymakers’ work remains the same: they must decide what to do with it. The benefit to them is greater freedom of action and the potential to alter an adverse outcome before it happens.
Q How does Rhombus partner with the U.S. Government?
A We work in true partnership, which is the only way. You can’t impose technology on the Pentagon. That would be such Silicon Valley hubris. We learn from each other, and the best national security leaders are sending the demand signal themselves.
Take what we did with the Air Force. Our partnership sought to transform their massive, often manual, time-consuming budget process. With Guardian, they could measure every decision and input, from workforce churn to cost-of-capital issues. It saved hundreds of thousands of hours and thousands of staff and contractors and produced better decisions for less.
Q What else can Silicon Valley bring to the defense community?
A I see unlimited examples. Take the fentanyl crisis. When President Trump designated eight cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, the country gained unprecedented
capability to fight the war against opioids. AI solutions, such as Rhombus’s turnkey AI-powered tool, can deliver new, better insights.
When the government piloted our platform against fentanyl trafficking, it achieved success by continuously analyzing massive volumes of data, including 43 million websites across the open and dark web, 8 million shipping records, over a billion satellite images, and countless social posts, financial transactions, and more. The tool identified 100% more fentanyl trafficking entities, 400% more individuals in these networks, and 900% more related crimes than traditional approaches. Think of what we can do with it now as the Administration
gets creative on fighting fentanyl.
Q How does AI assist militaries and governments in making quick and accurate national security decisions?
A Our goal is to operate at the speed of relevance. Otherwise, what use is information? Our job is to offer actionable analysis and insights earlier, so defense and security decision-makers aren’t stuck between shallow but quick or comprehensive but slow analysis. That’s a false choice in the “AI Age.” We can work with the government to deliver the best of both: comprehensive insight delivered fast, empowering leaders to make the best possible decisions.
Dr. Anshu Roy speaks with Hon. Josephine Teo, Singapore's Minister for Communications and Information, at the Rhombus booth during SCSP's 2024 AI Expo.
LAST YEAR, A HANDFUL OF UKRAINIANmade drones took flight from farmland just outside Kyiv, the war-torn country’s capital. As the squadron buzzed overhead, Ukraine’s military brass looked on, some taking notes. The event was a test to assess airworthiness and battery reliability for a new generation of drones to be used in the war against Russia.
This new generation was really new—some drone makers had only been in business for a few months. Yet, Ukrainian commanders welcomed their willingness to contribute to a critical mission. Early in the war, Ukraine had relied on Turkish-made drones to strike Russian forces. But Russia’s military adapted its technology to render those drones less lethal. To maintain an edge—stifling Russia’s air superiority while also enabling Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory—Ukraine had to build a homegrown drone industry almost overnight. It was yet another sign that Ukraine’s fight has become a war of rapid technological iteration—an approach many believe will define future conflicts, wherever they take place. ›
The Future Of Warfare
BY → JOSEPH GUINTO
That shift presents a potential challenge for the United States, where weapons systems typically take years—sometimes even decades—to develop. That will no longer do. As Dr. Eric Schmidt wrote in Foreign Affairs, the United States must “overcome its stultified bureaucratic impulses, create favorable conditions for innovation, and invest in the tools and talent needed to kick-start the virtuous cycle of technological advancement.”
Experts warn that if the U.S. military doesn’t find ways to adapt swiftly and create new battlefield tech, even on the fly, it could lose its current technological and strategic edge. But speeding up iteration is no easy task.
A WORLD OF INCREASINGLY HIGH STAKES
Not since the late 1930s has the United States faced in peacetime a more determined group of adversaries— China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea— all united in their desire to challenge and weaken America and its allies, to discredit the ideals they represent, and to upend the international order they preserve. Among them, China is advancing faster than ever before in developing next-generation battlefield technologies. And while Beijing has been accelerating its future capabilities, it has also been working to expand its global influence.
Admiral John C. Aquilino, former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee last year about the growing threat posed by the Chinese military, stating, “We haven’t faced a threat like this since World War II. Their actions are becoming much more belligerent, their rhetoric is more clear.”
And China’s military modernization is proceeding at an astonishing rate. As a consequence, Dr. Paul
J. Lyons, Senior Director for Defense at SCSP, says the potency of the entire U.S. defense-industrial base “increasingly depends on the scale of production and speed of iterative adaptation.” But speed and scale alone aren’t enough, he adds—coordination is just as critical.
THE FUTURE CHARACTER OF WARFARE
Warfare is changing at the speed of technological innovation. The conflicts of tomorrow—especially between near-peer adversaries—will not simply be fought by airplanes, artillery, tanks, and troops. Rather, they will be struggles between technologies, societies, and systems operating across physical and digital battlefields.
In this new age, the United States will have to contend with persistent competition, crisis, and confrontation, even if it falls below the threshold of open war. China, Russia, and other adversaries are already engaged in cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation targeting our economy, government functions, and societal stability. These tactics demand a new form of political will, and a new set of capabilities and institutions—not just military. Meanwhile, rapid advancements in sensors, drones, precision munitions, and autonomous systems are shifting the offense–defense balance. This is because high-value military assets are increasingly vulnerable to cheap, agile threats, forcing a redesign of U.S. forces around
Dr. Paul J. Lyons, Senior Director for Defense at SCSP (above), and Ylber Bajraktari, Vice President, Policy (across).
dispersion, adaptability, and speed.
All the while, the speed of innovation is increasing while the shelf life of new capabilities is decreasing, giving an immense edge to any country that can rapidly produce and deploy new technologies, particularly AI-enabled systems. This, in turn, depends on flexible supply chains, rapid iteration, and close civil-military integration, including commercial tech partnerships.
A final, critical change to warfare that the United States must recognize is that the homeland is no lon ger a sanctuary. Long-range precision strikes—whether kinetic or digital— can now threaten infrastructure as foundational as electric grids, ports,
BY
less about who can build the biggest weapons and more about who can integrate, iterate, and adapt fastest. In that environment, the decisive edge will go to those who embrace experimentation, short development loops, and whole-of-society mobilization. The United States must prepare to fight—and deter—a new kind of war, where the front lines are everywhere, and the contest never fully ends.
Indeed, battles in the digital realm have already begun. Last year, the U.S.
tions networks, energy grids, transportation systems, and water and wastewater networks in an operation known as Volt Typhoon.
All the while, “China is strengthening its IP systems to expand its innovation and protect its IP while leveraging the weaknesses in the United States’ IP systems to achieve its technological ambitions,” says Rama G. Elluru, SCSP’s Senior Director for Governance. Meanwhile, its capabilities have become increasingly sophisticated, and its ability to wage cyber warfare more developed. That kind of warfare may not be as visibly destructive as physical combat, but it still demands a cutting-edge response.
2050 → SELF-LEARNING
AI SYSTEMS COULD OUTPACE
HUMAN DECISION-MAKING
ACROSS THE BATTLESPACE.
and data centers. Homeland defense must, therefore, evolve beyond mis sile shields to include cyber resil ience and civil preparedness against asymmetric threats.
By 2050, the character of warfare may change even more radically, says Ylber Bajraktari, Vice President, Policy at SCSP. Self-learning AI systems could outpace human decision-making across the battlespace, from logis tics to targeting. Extended battle fields—ranging from high Earth orbit to undersea and immersive digital worlds—will introduce new domains of conflict, while convergence in AI, robotics, biotech, and nanotech could reduce the strategic advantage once granted by sheer population size. Ultimately, future wars may be
Military advantages will result from the U.S.'s ability to adapt and scale across emerging technologies.
09 Nothing that SCSP does would be possible without its operations team, led by Senior Vice President and Chief of Staff Angela Ponmakha, pictured here at 2023's Global Emerging Technology Summit.
10 Ylli Bajraktari and Arati Prabhakar, the former Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, pose for a selfie at SCSP’s inaugural Expo.
11 Excited by the promise of fusion energy, Ylli Bajraktari decided to set up the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy, to align government, academia, and industry around a shared vision for the deployment of fusion energy to secure America’s position in the energy transition.
12 SCSP recently conducted a high-level visit to Taiwan. From left to right, Ylber Bajraktari, Tara Rigler, Angela Ponmakha, Ylli Bajraktari, Hsiao Bi-khim (Vice President of Taiwan), David Lin, Libby Lange, Channing Lee, Hans Kuoyu Chiao (Deputy Director-General, Department of North American Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan), and Jeff Wu, (Counselor, Office of the Vice President, Taiwan).
13 Ylli Bajraktari addresses a meeting of the Fusion Commission.
14 SCSP showcases the cutting edge of U.S. innovation, particularly at its recent AI+ Robotics summit.
15 ANL scientists and the SCSP team at the Aurora exascale supercomputer.
