Trump Continued • page 7
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is certainly warmer than the one his predecessor, Obama, Photo: By Bienchido - Own work / Wikimedia Commons GFDL had with Israel’s leader. A panorama of Jerusalem, the contested capital of Israelis and Palestinians, shows the Temple Mount, including Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock, Throughout his campaign and even during as seen from the Mount of Olives mountain ridge next to the Old City. the first week of his presidency, Trump vowed to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel find the landscape daunting, the United States’ out of the equation. In fact, the president, in playing into the election campaign of 2018. If Aviv to Jerusalem. But no such move appears strategic interests and moral values call for typical Trump fashion, jettisoned decades of these economic measures are applied, that’s goimminent. That doesn’t surprise Gershon continued opposition to Israeli settlements in diplomatic convention by declaring that he ing to make economic conditions in Mexico Baskin, founder and co-chairman of the Israel/ occupied territory, a continued insistence that was open to the idea of a one-state solution, worse, which is likely to spur migration to the Palestine Center for Research and Informa- the Palestinians pursue their cause through thereby effectively abandoning Washington’s United States.” (Ironically, net migration from tion. peaceful means, a continued commitment to a long-term support of two states — one for Mexico has been down since the 2008 reces“Trump will probably sign the order delay- two-state solution, and continued attentiveness Jews, the other for Palestinians — as a way of sion.) ing the implementation of the move, mainly to Israel’s strategic vulnerabilities,” they wrote. ending the conflict. “I can live with either one,” Shifter warned that Mexico — which has because the intelligence and military people “In other words, the most basic requirement is he told reporters. been “very helpful” on issues ranging from will tell him that if he moves the embassy, to do no harm, thus following in the tradition Whether the Palestinians can is another drug interdiction to stemming the flow of CenAmerican lives will be at risk,” Baskin told of past presidents.” tral American migrants — might not want to matter entirely. The Diplomat in a phone call from Jerusalem. On Feb. 15, Trump — who has suggested NOTE: Although every effort made to assure your ad freeofof mistakes spelling “That’s what’s happened for theispast 20 years, enlisting theishelp Arab states toinbreak the and ultimately up to the customer to makestalemate the final—proof. and that’s content not likely it to is change. ” Israeli-Palestinian met with NeEven so, Trump is seen as more pro-Israel tanyahu in Washington and held a joint press presidentwill in recent memoThe than first any twoAmerican faxed changes be made at noconference. cost to the advertiser, subsequent changes ry. Although the president has called addition“TheSigned body language terrific, and their will be billed at a rate of $75 per faxed alteration. ads arewas considered approved. al settlement construction unhelpful toward rhetoric on Iran is probably very close,” said achieving peace, his pick for U.S. ambassador Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Please check this ad carefully. Mark any changes to your ad. to Israel, Orthodox Jewish lawyer David Fried- Council’s Global Energy Center. “I think both man, is an unabashed proponent of settlements Bibi and Trump are coming to the conclusion If the ad ishas correct sign the andtwo-state fax to: (301) needsimpossible changes to scuttle the who disavowed solution949-0065 and that it’ll be almost bashed liberal Jews. JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] The Washington Diplomat pro-Israeli (301) The administration’s bend933-3552 is not on Iran, but they both want to work to enforce necessarily a good thing, warn Dana H. Allin strictly the [nuclear weapons] agreement.” and Steven N. Simon, authors of “Our Separate He added: “They also want to work with Approved __________________________________________________________ Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the U.S.- Sunni Arab countries. One of the interesting Changes ___________________________________________________________ Israel Alliance.” challenges and opportunities is to get Arab ___________________________________________________________________ In a lengthy article for Foreign Affairs, the states to recognize Israel and provide the imtwo authors outline the dangers of Trump’s al- primatur for some kind of long-term or perliance with Israel’s hard right. manent peace arrangement.” “Although any new administration would But that has effectively left the Palestinians
Photo: By z2amiller - IMG_4919_2.jpg / Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 2.0
Mexican immigrants march for more rights in the northern California city of San Jose in 2006.
MEXICO
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8 | THE WASHINGTON DIPLOMAT | MARCH 2017
The two issues that propelled Donald Trump into the White House were trade and immigration — and Mexico is the proxy for both issues. It’s unfortunate, because until Trump’s election, the relationship between North America’s two most populous countries was quite positive. Yet Trump’s rhetoric about building a wall (now estimated to cost $21 billion), deporting up to 3 million undocumented immigrants and slapping a 35 percent tariff on imports from Mexico hasn’t ended with his campaign. That worries Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank. “This administration is still figuring out what it’s going to do on both immigration and trade issues,” he said. “They’ll have to do something that’s a change from the previous administration, because that’s why Trump was elected.” But things are complicated by the fact that nobody is currently in charge of Latin America at the State Department. And while Roberta Jacobson — a seasoned diplomat who spent four years as Obama’s assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs — is now U.S. ambassador to Mexico, she’s unlikely to stay in that position for very long. “The question is, how far will he go?” Shifter mused. “[Secretary of State] Tillerson recently met with Mexico’s foreign minister. He and other Cabinet officials like [Secretary of Defense] James Mattis and [Secretary of Homeland Security] John F. Kelly have a better understanding about what the stakes are in the U.S. taking such an aggressive position, which could really hurt us economically. It’s already damaged Mexico in a number of ways and is
cooperate if the U.S. government pursues policies that hurt its southern neighbor. “The hope is that if you have responsible people like Tillerson, Kelly and Mattis in senior positions, and some members of Congress, including Republicans, begin to speak out, the basic elements of our relationship will be preserved going forward and some of the damage could be contained.” Shifter says he has no doubt that NAFTA will be renegotiated, most likely under the leadership of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Yet Walter Molano, writing in Latinvex, says Mexico could be the “unexpected star” of Latin America in 2017. “Despite the rhetoric from the White House, the Mexican economy will benefit from economic revival in the United States,” he predicted. “Today, Mexico is an integral part of the U.S. industrial base. Hence, the expansion in U.S. economic activity will surely be felt south of the border.” Molano noted that many of the companies that have announced changes to their Mexican investment plans, like General Motors and Chrysler, either received government bailouts in the past or depend heavily on federal contracts. “It is only natural that they kowtow to the new powers in Washington,” he observed. “Still, the larger set of corporations that are not as dependent on government assistance or projects will continue to operate unabatedly, and provide a strong boost to the Mexican economy. In other words, there will be winners and losers in 2017, but Mexico could be holding the proverbial Trump card.” WD Larry Luxner is the Tel Aviv-based news editor of The Washington Diplomat.