THE CHANCES ARE EQUAL

Professor Jarosław Flis , a sociologist at Jagiellonian University in Cracow, talks to Witold Żygulski

What does the Polish political scene look like today, in an election year?

Professor Jarosław Flis

The trends that have unfolded in Poland and constantly amaze public opinion are by no means unique, they have occurred in many countries of the world. The traditional rivalry between the right and the left, shaped over the last century, has changed, under the influence of various crises, into a conflict between those who are well off and those who are not. A new axis of political rivalry has been formed, which today is the cause of much misunderstanding. In the dispute between the right and the left, the issue was their different approach to community and individualism, on two axes: economic and moral or identity-related, i.e. social. The old right said that there should be full freedom in economic matters, while in social matters the community, embodied by the state, was important. The left, on the other hand, took the stance that it was exactly the opposite: in economics, the role of the state is most important; in matters of morals, there should be the fullest possible freedom and individualism.

In Poland today, we see that this division has lost its raison d’être. The conflict is not between the right and the left, but between the high and the low. The former believe that community is a burden and not a foundation in both economic and social life, while for the latter, community means security, hope, and joy. In such a situation, the old division into left and right explains nothing.

From this fundamental problem, more are born. In any society, those who are not well off outnumber those who are satisfied with the totality of their lives. At the same time, someone who is comfortably established usually thinks that they have set themselves up in this way, while the less prosperous think that others have set them up in this way. This fundamental difference in understanding the world makes the division very emotional and deep. Better-off people do not notice that their position is dependent on others, especially the condition of society as a whole. Less well-off people expect the state to care for them and support collective identities.

This division affects the balance in the rivalry for power. A party that is representative of less well-off people has it inherently easier, because it has a more numerous electorate. This matters when it comes to judging those in power not only in terms of their professed ideas, but also in terms of their performance, particularly their honesty and any abuse of power.

It should come as no surprise that, despite the absurd mistakes, despite the obvious and readily noticeable in-

THE CONFLICT IS NOT BETWEEN THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT, BUT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW

iquity of which Poland’s current ruling party is guilty, it retains a pretty strong poll position. The banner of defending those who are worse off is easier to raise, distracting attention from eight years of various crises and scandals. The camp of their opponents cannot be gathered together under such a single banner because it would then inevitably be a losing camp.

The search for an alternative to those currently in power is pulling the opposition in different directions, which is why its parties are diverse and cannot count on easy unity. Today we have four groups that oppose the senior coalitionist government of Law and Justice (PiS) and the entire United Right. The liberal Civic Platform (PO) clearly identifies with the better-off electorate. Agrarian opposi- tion Polish People’s Party (PSL) and political newcomer Poland 2050 by Szymon Hołownia are moderate centrists. PSL voters should in principle vote for PiS, but since the ruling party has alienated various parts of the electorate in many ways, the People’s Party still has supporters.

Then there are the shortcomings of the left, itself broken up into several groupings that differ in their radicalism [New Left, Razem (Together), Polish Socialist Party]. Finally, there is the radical-nationalist but economically hyper-liberal Confederation, whose ratings have doubled compared to last year.

A lasting agreement among all the opposition groups is virtually impossible. As many as three of them (except the Confederation) face losses if they were to form a single list. If PO, PSL-Poland 2050 and the Left joined forces, the Confederation would probably gain supporters, perhaps even to the level of 15-percent support. This is because when some of such diverse opposition groups join forces, it is always the one that does not enter such an alliance that gains.

The PO would theoretically find it easiest to come to an agreement with the PSL; after all, they have already ruled half of Poland in local governments for 16 years. The PO could also - although it does not do so willingly - invite the Left to run together. But today the Left is the party furthest from the centrist electorate. If the PO were to join forces with the Left, its conservative voters would begin to flee to Poland 2050 and the PSL. The benefits of this alliance would therefore be small, and the losses obvious.

From left: Jarosław Kaczyński, Andrzej Duda and Mateusz Morawiecki

Former leftist Prime Minister Leszek Miller recently said that for the current Left, PO leader Donald Tusk is a greater evil than the leader of PiS and the United Right, Jarosław Kaczyński...

New Left co-leaders: Adrian Zandberg, Włodzimierz Czarzasty and Robert Biedroń

The Left rally in Warsaw

Personally, I don’t think this is the case. Surveys show that the Left’s electorate is the furthest removed from PiS supporters. In terms of both self-identification and dislike of PiS voters, there is no doubt about it. Of course, dislike of Tusk is also evident, but at a much lower level. These polls also show that left-wing voters are much more liberal on economic issues than supporters of the ruling party, more even than the PO’s electorate. Miller’s words sound good, but there is no indication that they are true.

Besides, it should be remembered that for all the years of its rule, the PO treated the Left as something of a necessary evil, along the lines of “we invite them if we must, discard them if we can.” In local governments, when the votes of left-wing councilors were needed the PO sent them a smile, only to ostentatiously disregard them again a moment later.

What is the scenario for the coming years, then?

Ahead of the parliamentary elections announced for this fall, the political forces are pretty evenly matched. Which is not to say that everyone has as much to lose. The opposition is in power in the Senate, and there is every sign that it will remain so: The so-called Senate Pact (a joint list of opposition parties’ candidates), which resulted in them gaining control of the upper house, remains in effect. Representatives of the opposition also wield local power in many regions and cities of Poland. This allows the opposition to gather more strength before the next clash.

One cannot help but notice that the ruling party has clearly weakened. True, its politicians still talk about the hope for a fourth term of independent rule, but the chances of this, according to polls, are very slim. Today the ratings of Mateusz Morawiecki’s government are much worse than those of [Prime Minister from PO] Ewa Kopacz’s cabinet eight years ago, just before the PO-PSL coalition lost power and the United Right took over the helm of government.

The only hope of those currently in power is a possible post-election alliance with the Confederation. However, this is based on an assumption that I think is false, namely that the Confederation is the only party whose program places it to the right of PiS. However, surveys show that, admittedly, the Left’s electorate is the furthest from Confederation supporters, but in second place is the electorate of PiS. The PO is only in third place, and the PSL-Poland 2050 electorate is the closest. Confederation supporters describe PiS as “church socialists.” It is worth remembering that the Confederation is the only party that wants the immediate abolition of the 500+ program, the flagship family benefit introduced by the current government.

The Confederation is also the weakest link on the Polish political scene. It is practically nonexistent in local and regional authorities. On top of that, in Polish elections so far, the worst performers have always been parties as to which it was not clear whether by voting for them, voters were in favor of a change of government or its continuation. This was the case with the Freedom Union in 2001, the PSL in 2005, the [right-wing] League of Polish Families and [radical peasant] Self-Defense in 2007, the Left in 2011, the Palikot Movement in 2015, and the Left in 2019. In order to avoid such a trap, today the Confederation unequivocally criticizes the government. However, in various debates there are constant speculations that it would not necessarily advocate a change of government at all. There are scenarios that Confederation politicians talk about off the record, in which Morawiecki could be left in place as the prime minister of a minority government. Such a solution is warmly talked about by PiS politicians and presented as a threat by the rest of the opposition. Hence the question is: Will voters in the fall want to vote for the Confederation in order to keep Morawiecki’s cabinet moribund for longer? I am not convinced of this. Instead, one can also easily imagine a situation in which the Confederation supports a minority government led by [PSL leader] Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

Włodzimierz Kosiniak-Kamysz (left) and Szymon Hołownia

Either way, today PiS is very far from an independent majority. The Confederation remains the only potential imaginable partner. But even on this, the polls are not clear-cut; in some, the possibility of a parliamentary majority for such an alliance appears, while in others there are insufficient votes for this to happen.

It is almost certain that the opposition will go to the elections with three different lists, just as it did in 2007 when it came to power in such a way. At that time, it did not occur to anyone to try to create a joint list of PO, PSL and the Left. The fight will therefore be an even one, and we will see who will prevail at the ballot box. The less smart will lose.

During the last presidential election, there was widespread criticism of the behavior of the media, especially those that should have been public and unbiased but instead were a propaganda tube for the authorities; how will it look this year?

This is a good question. Certainly, there are those in the public media who want an even louder message, even blunter propaganda. However, I don’t think this will play any fundamental role in winning over the electorate. [Public television] TVP has been attacking the opposition for many years but, according to today’s polls, it is PiS that will have to relinquish power. On the other hand, I think that an enormous role might be played by social media, where activists of various groups will primarily try to win the sympathy of those who are undecided who to vote for and those who have so far not gone to the polls at all. Such mobilization is possible, and its success may determine the electoral outcome.

The government’s ratings are in a massive slump. Even government polling centers reveal this in their surveys. It is worth noting that the number of undecideds, those who are unable to clearly assess whether they like the government or not, is falling. I don’t know if any reversal of this trend will be possible in the coming months, regardless of the efforts of the government and the media supporting it.

It is evident that the ruling camp is also internally divided, its cohesion basically hanging on one man, Jarosław Kaczyński. Polls point to Morawiecki as the obvious successor to the current PiS leader, but at the same time, the prime minister’s position is very weak within the ruling party. The head of government is completely dependent on Kaczyński, which forces him to behave in completely irrational ways. He has to talk – this needs saying out loud – utter rubbish in public just to please the leader of the United Right. At the same time, he has to bring up topics that no sensible prime minister would touch in a speech. After all, how else do we explain the constant attacks on political opponents, blaming them for the state of the country, when in fact today’s opposition and Tusk were ousted from power eight years ago? But since for Kaczyński the best test of politicians’ loyalty is for them to consistently keep attacking Tusk, Morawiecki mentions him at every opportunity and blames him for everything around him. No one in PiS today is working to win over voters; their only game is to win their leader’s appreciation, to gain his favor and - consequently - get good spots on the electoral lists before the fall vote.

All polls predict between 180 and 200 parliamentary seats for PiS in the new Sejm. This means that about 50 current deputies will lose their seats. That is, at least one in each constituency will get the boot. And it needs noting that these people also include government officials, deputy ministers and other prominent people who would like to gain parliamentary immunity in the fall. There is already talk of some PiS MEPs returning to Poland to bolster their election campaigns and lists; these politicians certainly would not like to part with their safe place in Brussels or Strasbourg, but they know that if they do not follow Kaczyński’s orders, there will be no place for them as candidates for the next European Parliament. If they turn him down, they will not be on the lists next year.

It is therefore difficult to expect an easing of tensions in the ruling camp. At the recent convention of junior coalitionist Sovereign Poland, the name of the head of the cur- rent government, in which Sovereign Poland leader Zbigniew Ziobro is the minister of justice, was not mentioned even once. No representatives of PiS were invited to the event. This is an oddity that best illustrates the concept of the “United Right.”

How, then, do you think Polish voters will behave now? Regarding those who have long known who they will vote for, the matter is clear. The key will be the behavior of the undecided and those who have so far not voted at all, either declaring themselves apolitical or having no party to support. It has been said that the 2023 elections will be the most important since the 1989 political breakthrough, but then, this has been repeated many times, with each previous election. Of course, it is apparent that various processes of degeneration in the ruling camp have deepened (this is evidenced, for example, by the scandals revealed in recent weeks around the transfer of sizable sums of public funds to various institutions linked to United Right politicians). But nothing really exceptional is happening.

This year’s elections are just beginning a series; they will be followed by local government elections, elections to the European Parliament and, finally, presidential elections, which will be different from previous ones because the incumbent president will not be running [Andrzej Duda cannot seek a third term]. It is therefore unclear who the United Right will put up for the presidential race, whether it will be Prime Minister Morawiecki, former Prime Minister [now MEP] Beata Szydło or current Sejm Speaker Elżbieta Witek. On the opposition side, things are clearer: The natural candidate is Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who lost to Duda by a very narrow margin in the previous election.

Talking about the role and uniqueness of this year’s elections, politicians are heating up the atmosphere because it works in their favor. Those in power say that if they lose, Poland will collapse; the opposition says that if PiS wins again, democracy will collapse in Poland. They all want to convince the public, and thus the voters, that we are facing an Armageddon, some final confrontation between the forces of good and evil. Nothing of the sort is happening, in my opinion. The ruling party strongly deserves defeat, but the opposition has done little to deserve victory. Heating up the atmosphere serves to distract attention from their own weaknesses.

What role will European issues play in the campaign? Are these issues at all relevant

to Polish voters?

In general, as research shows, the attitude of Poles toward the European Union and Polish membership in it is very positive, the percentage of Euro-enthusiasts being one of the highest among the member states. This is in spite of the fact that the EU behaves toward nation-states more or less like PiS does toward local governments - it systematically limits their competencies, threatens to cut funds, tries to introduce a kind of centralist model of governance. Like any entity with power, it is trying to expand its ability to govern. But we are in the EU, in this European home, in this institution. And everyone who works in a large institution realizes that he or she must somehow adapt to the customs of the institution, even if the boss is far from perfect. To defend or increase one’s autonomy one must know how to do it, not just want to.

In recent weeks, opinions have been heard that a new force may emerge in the fall elections in the form of local-government movements. The Non-Partisan Local-Government Representatives have declared that they will go to the elections on their own and are capable of winning serious parliamentary representation. Is such a scenario realistic?

People in local governments are not a single force. Their organizations are largely composed of members of individual parties. The idea that we are dealing with a single movement is mistaken. It is hard to speak of any nationwide organization. PiS, on the other hand, has done much to alienate those local politicians who have so far stayed away from national politics.

However, the local-government movement will be of great importance in the local elections, which for the first time will be held very soon, just six months after the parliamentary elections, and not before, as happened previously. The elections to the Sejm and Senate will be a kind of first round of the local elections; it will be clear what the division of forces in parliament will be like, who will be riding high and who will lose. Someone once very aptly said that local elections are both an incubator and a ventilator of national politics. It remains to be seen who will be born in an incubator and who will lose their breath and require support.

Some people think that after the fall elections we will be doomed to chaos, a minority government, paralysis of power. What do you think?

Nothing could be further from the truth. We see coalition governments in the vast majority of European countries.

Sometimes they are formed by parties that are very distant from each other in terms of their professed views. In Poland, we are dealing with such a situation in several large regions, where the opposition has been in power for years. Nor, in my opinion, is there any concern about the president’s attitude toward a possible government formed by today’s opposition. Consistency has never been Duda’s particularly strong point; besides, it should be remembered that after the end of his second and final term, which will be in the fall of 2024, he will want - or at least has expressed such ambitions - to continue his political career abroad, in international institutions. Therefore, he will not want to run the risk that reports from Poland compiled by the American embassy, for example, will contain information about the president’s poor collaboration with the new prime minister and his cabinet. On the contrary, perhaps the president will try to show that he is able not to pursue his own party’s interests and to get along with everyone, like, for example, the NATO secretary general or any other international official should do.

There are many indications that PiS will lose the fall elections. Then there will inevitably be a major reshuffle on the Polish political scene. But on the other hand, the four largest parties in the parliament will be the same groupings that have been there for 20 years. Compared to the rest of Europe this is a rare case, testifying to the stability of the political system in Poland rather than its crisis. Poland is not falling apart like Belgium; it does not take several months to form a government like the Netherlands. Therefore, I see no rational reason for concern.

Professor Jarosław Flis