WAT E R L E V E L S
Water levels and climate’s “New Normal” BY JEFF POLAKOFF, LOWDSA REPRESENTATIVE, LAKE OF THE WOODS CONTROL BOARD The summer of 2021 provided good evidence of the increasing challenges associated with predicting and regulating water levels within the Winnipeg River basin including Lake of the Woods. As we approached summer, abnormally dry conditions had persisted for over a year within the basin. Despite an anticipated return to “normal” water level by the Lake of The Woods Control Board (LWCB) for July, lower than seasonal precipitation combined with low inflow and ongoing hot conditions with related evaporation, resulted in continuing low water. With this in mind, I thought it would be useful to consider why climatologists characterize current weather patterns as signalling a “new normal”. There was nothing normal about the summer of 2021 for a whole range of reasons, not the least of which was weather. It was characterized by wildfires, heatwaves, and drought with high temperature and low precipitation records being broken throughout the region. Clearly, the thinking of climate professionals, and others of what “normal” is when it comes to climate is changing. The original determination of a “climatological normal (CN)" for an area was developed at an international climate So, what is “Normal”? conference in 1935 where it was determined that the CN would be based on a 30-year average of data for a particular time period. The tracking of this data started with a review of climate records and variables as far back as 1901. These records have been continuously updated in 30-year increments by international and national agencies such as The World Meteorological Agency (United Nations), Environment Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. Both ECCC and NOAA have emphasized the significant impacts of climate change that has resulted in warmer and wetter conditions which will continue to affect current and future weather patterns. These changes are driven to a large degree by the increasing warming trends as well as the resulting “wetting” of the atmosphere as rising temperatures result in increased evaporation from oceans, lakes, and land surface. While the atmosphere is getting wetter, this doesn’t necessarily translate into wetter weather patterns for all areas. The wetter atmosphere can affect regions very differently. This was certainly the case for the basin this year, where early summer did not see very much precipitation at all, however it was certainly hotter. According
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to climatologists, the drier and wetter areas shift back and forth without an obvious pattern. As a result, one region may experience drought while another may be impacted by floods. Prediction of these events is challenging. It is, however, clear that climate change and the warming of the planet is driving a new normal and an increase in weather events. Summer temperatures in Canada have risen on average 1.5 C from 1948-2016. According to climatologists, this has resulted in a significant increase in climate related events that are difficult to predict. For the Lake of the Woods area, 2021 has been the driest year since 1961 based on LWCB records. Between January 1, 2021, and June 30, 2021, 152.8 mm of precipitation fell in the Kenora area. This compares with an average level of precipitation of 308.9 mm, or 49.5 per cent of the expected precipitation for that period. As of this writing at the end of July 2021, the level of Lake of the Woods is at 322.60 meters (1058.4 ft.) above sea level or the 10th percentile for that time of year. This is compared to the water depths on your navigation charts of 322.80 meters (1059.0 ft). Below normal levels of precipitation were anticipated to continue into the fall. In June, the LWCB Secretariat staffed by ECCC, requested assistance from member organizations to assist with the collection of data and perspectives for a study on low spring water levels and how they affect rightsholders and stakeholders on Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul. This request and the related survey were posted on the LOWDSA website in July and was anticipated to be active until the end of August. The intent is for the data collected to be presented and discussed at the October 2021, LWCB regulation meeting for inclusion in LWCB strategies for Winter 2021/22 and Spring 2022. Our thanks to all who have participated in this survey. We will be keeping you apprised of findings and our approach to a changing “normal.” If you would like to keep up to date on the status of water levels and related bulletins etc., please visit the LWCB website at lwcb.ca/waterflowdata.html.
In the District Lake of the Woods Area News Fall 2021
