01 19
January 2019 Monthly Report Greater Eastside and Seattle Metro
Eastside Residential* January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2009 to January 2019)
Homes For Sale
Avg. Active Prices
Avg. Sold Prices
Median Sold Prices
Home Prices
Homes For Sale
$3m
600
496 Homes
412 Homes
$2.5m
500
$1.84m
$2m
$1.97m
$1.92m
$1.35m
$1.5m
$1.30m 200
159 Homes
$500K
$0
300
$1.54m
$1.25m
$1.09m $1.08m
$1m
400
100
0 Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
January Price Per SQFT Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 vs January 2018) Price Per Square Foot $800
Ç 15% $720 $625
$600
$400
È 9% Ç 6%
Ç 7%
È .6%
$395 $372
$340 $342
$384
$497
$452 $358
Ç 7% $429
$400
È 4% $301
$315
$200
$0 Eastside/ South of I-90
West Bellevue
Sammamish
January 2019 Price Per Square Foot
Redmond
Kirkland
Bridle Trails
Woodinville
January 2018 Price Per Square Foot
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Sold data was collected only in the month of January, dating back to 2005. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Eastside Condominiums* January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $600k+ (January 2009 to January 2019) Homes For Sale
Avg. Active Prices
Avg. Sold Prices
Median Sold Prices
Condo Prices $2m $1.8m
Condos For Sale 200
178 Condos
$1.75m
180
$1.6m $1.4m
160
$1.22m
$1.2m $1m
140 120
$858K
$780K
$800k $600k
$1.25m
$1.20m
$798K
$1.14m
100
61 Condos
80 60
$625K
$400k
40
47 Condos
$200k $0
20 0 Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
January Price Per SQFT Comparison
Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 vs January 2018)
Overall Market Recap Price Per Square Foot $1,000
$800
Single-Family
Ăˆ 6% $776
$823
From 2015 to 2018, we saw a steady increase in inventory
Ç14%
of about 16% Year-over-Year (YoY), but 2018 to 2019 was a different story. YoY inventory soared 107% resulting in
$660
412 homes for sale in January 2019. Average Active Prices
$581
$600
swelled 32% from 2016 to 2018 only to re-balance -18% in January 2019. Price Per SQFT values, overall, are down -5% compared to last year.
$400
Condominiums The Condo market had a similar story. Inventory hit its
$200
13 year-low in 2018 then tripled the in 2019. Despite this tripling of supply, inventory remains fairly low, historically
$0 West Bellevue
Kirkland
January 2019 Price Per Square Foot
speaking. Avg. Active Prices, unlike Single-Family homes, continued to show positive upward trends, ending January 2019 up 8%. Price Per SQFT values, overall, are up 6% YoY.
January 2018 Price Per Square Foot
*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98004 & 98033. Statistics do not include presales. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Eastside Community Insights
January Absorption Rates
West Bellevue
Three out of the seven communities we focused on
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
(West Bellevue, Eastside/South of I-90, Redmond and Bridle Trails) that make up the Eastside are
16%
officially a Buyer’s market, per January’s numbers.
33%
The remaining three (Sammamish, Woodinville and Kirkland) are Neutral markets, edging closer to a statistically defined Buyer’s market. Seattle, on the other hand, as you’ll see in the coming pages,
0%
three out of the four market areas (Central Seattle,
13% È 72% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET
Ballard/Greenlake & Laurelhurst/Windermere) remain a Seller’s market. Queen Anne/Magnolia’s market concluded in a Neutral position. *Absorption Rate: Number of properties sold in a given month divided by number of homes for sale. Buyer’s Market
Neutral Market
100%
Seller’s Market
75
11
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Ç47% vs 2018
È 73% vs 2018
Eastside/South of I-90
Redmond
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
33%
0%
16%
100%
15% È 78% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET
33%
0%
100%
11% È 88% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET
62
9
65
7
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Ç114% vs 2018
È 53% vs 2018
Ç261% vs 2018
È 56% vs 2018
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Eastside Community Insights
Woodinville
Sammamish
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
33%
0%
16%
100%
33%
0%
17% È 56% off from 2018
100%
32% È 46% off from 2018
NEUTRAL MARKET
NEUTRAL MARKET
35
6
117
37
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Ç35% vs 2018
È 40% vs 2018
Ç144% vs 2018
Ç32% vs 2018
Bridle Trails
Kirkland
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
16%
33%
0%
100%
6% È 92% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET
33%
0%
100%
17% È 76% off from 2018 NEUTRAL MARKET
16
1
58
10
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale
Total Homes Sold
Ç300% vs 2018
È 66% vs 2018
Ç115% vs 2018
È 47% vs 2018
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Eastside Market Share by Price Point Single-Family Residential*
Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 to January 2018)
2018
2019 $1m-$1.5m
69%
$1m-$1.5m
63%
$1.5m-$2m
16%
$1.5m-$2m
19%
$2m-$2.5m
11%
$2m-$2.5m
8%
$2.5m-$3m
0%
$2.5m-$3m
6%
$3m+
3%
$3m+
4%
The noticable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 6% drop in Market Share in the $2.5million - $3million price range.
Condominiums*
Price Range: $600k+ (January 2019 to January 2018)
2018
2019 $600k-$800k
23%
$600k-$800k
25%
$800k-$1m
9%
$800k-$1m
13%
$1m-$1.2m
27%
$1m-$1.2m
8%
$1.2m-1.4m
9%
$1.2m-1.4m
25%
$1.4m+
32%
$1.4m+
29%
The noticeable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 16% drop in Market Share in the $1.2million - $1.4million price range and the 19% increase in Market Share in the $1million - $1.2million price range.
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Seattle Metro Residential * January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2009 to January 2019) Homes For Sale
Avg. Active Prices
Avg. Sold Prices
Median Sold Prices
Home Prices $3m
Homes For Sale 200
183 Homes
180
$2.5m
$2.63m $2.02m
140
$2m
121 Homes
$1.90m $1.5m
$1m
$1.45m
$1.79m
$1.28m
$1.32m
$1.15m
160
120 100 80
$1.23m
60
67 Homes
40
$500k
20 $0
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
0
January Price Per SQFT Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 vs January 2018) Price Per Square Foot $800
$612 $600
Ç 16%
Ç 6%
Ç 14% $578
$604
È 8%
$566 $497
$481
$521 $446
$400
$200
$0 Central Seattle
Queen Anne/ Magnolia
Ballard/ Greenlake
Laurelhurst/ Windermere
January 2019 Price Per Square Foot January 2018 Price Per Square Foot
*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. Zip codes include: 98102, 98103, 98105, 98107, 98109, 98112, 98119, 98122, 98199. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Seattle Metro Condominiums* January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $600k+ (January 2009 to January 2019) Homes For Sale
Avg. Active Prices
Avg. Sold Prices
Median Sold Prices
Home Prices
Homes For Sale
$2.5m
200
189 Condos
180
$2.13m
156 Condos
$1.97m
$2m
160 140
$1.5m
$1.40m
120
$1.30m $1.08m
$1m
$1.1m
$1.40m
100
$843k
80
75 Condos
60
$780k
$500k
40 20 0
$0 Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
January Price Per SQFT Comparison Price Range: $600k+ (January 2019 vs January 2018)
Overall Market Recap Price Per Square Foot
Single-Family
$1,000
The lowest amount of Single-Family homes for sale, in the
Ăˆ 15%
$799
$800
$682
past 13 years, was back in 2017 (47 total homes). From 2015 to 2018, inventory levels remained low, but increased 98% to end January 2019 with 121 homes on the market. Avg. Active Prices, in the last ten years, peaked in 2017 at
$600
a little over $2.5m, but soon after started decelerating, ending January 2019 off -5% Year-over-Year (YoY). Price
$400
Per SQFT (PPSF) values are up 10% compared to last year.
Condominiums
$200
The Condo market followed suit. Inventory hit its 13 yearlow in 2017 and didn’t change much in 2018, but then
$0 Seattle Metro
January 2019 Price Per Square Foot January 2018 Price Per Square Foot
roughly tripled in 2019. Active Prices in the Condo market fluctuated up and down 28-30% since 2014, ending the year down -28% in January 2019. Price Per SQFT (PPSF) values, are down -15% YoY.
*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98101, 98102, 98104, 98109, 98112, 98119, 98121, 98122 & 98199. Statistics do not include presales. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Seattle Community Insights
January Absorption Rates Absorption Rate Defined: Number of properties
Buyer’s Market
sold divided by number of homes for sale.
Neutral Market
Central Seattle*
Laurelhurst / Windermere
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
33%
0%
16%
100%
Seller’s Market
33%
0%
100%
39% Ç 16% off from 2018
75% no change from 2018
SELLER’S MARKET
SELLER’S MARKET
26
10
4
3
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç189% vs 2018
Ç233% vs 2018
È 50% vs 2018
È 50% vs 2018
Queen Anne / Magnolia
Ballard / Green Lake
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
16%
33%
0%
100%
22% È 66% off from 2018 8 36 NEUTRAL MARKET
33%
0%
100%
35% È 69% off from 2018 15 43 SELLER’S MARKET
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç80% vs 2018
È 38% vs 2018
Ç207% vs 2018
È 6% vs 2018
*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. Included neighborhoods for Central Seattle: Capitol Hill, Denny Blaine, Madison Park & Washington Park. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Seattle Market Share by Price Point Single-Family Residential*
Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 to January 2018)
2018
2019
$1m-$1.5m
68%
$1m-$1.5m
64%
$1.5m-$2m
15%
$1.5m-$2m
27%
$2m-$2.5m
10%
$2m-$2.5m
4%
$2.5m-$3m
2%
$2.5m-$3m
4%
$3m+
5%
$3m+
0%
The noticeable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 12% increase in Market Share in the $1.5million to $2million price range and the 5% increase in Market Share in the $3million+ price range.
Condominiums*
Price Range: $600k+ (January 2019 to January 2018)
2019
2018
$600k-$800k
59%
$600k-$800k
62%
$800k-$1m
23%
$800k-$1m
15%
$1m-$1.2m
9%
$1m-$1.2m
23%
$1.2m-1.4m
9%
$1.2m-1.4m
0%
$1.4m+
0%
$1.4m+
23%
The noticeable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 23% drop in Market Share in the $1.4million+ price range and the 9% increase in Market Share in the $1.2million - $1.4million dollar price range.
*Data shown is for single-family homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront & condominiums priced $600k+. Zip codes: 98102, 98103, 98105, 98107, 98109, 98112, 98119, 98122 98199. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Waterfront* Waterfront Market Recap For true* water front properties, January 2019 had only 2 closings and one home under contract. Last year, January 2018, was also a quite year with no closings and 2 pending sales.
For Sale in January 2019 Price Range: $2m+ Community
For Sale
Median List Price
Avg Price / SF (Sold)
Avg Days on Market
Seattle
2
$8,375,000
$1,698
391 days
Eastside
7
$8,488,000
$2,732
259 days
Mercer Island
11
$6,980,000
$1,138
457 days
*Data shown is for single-family homes priced $2M+ from I-90 to West of Market in Kirkland, Mercer Island and I-90 to Windermere, including neighborhoods: Leschi, Madrona, Madison Park, Denny Blaine, Washington Park & Laurelhurst. True waterfront properties are homes that have their own private waterfront footage, not shared. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from NWMLS data.
Waterfront* Pending in January 2019 Price Range: $2m+ Community
Pending
Avg Price / SF (Sold)
Avg Days on Market
Seattle
0
n/a
n/a
Eastside
1
$2,740
2
Mercer Island
0
n/a
n/a
days
Sold in January 2019 Price Range: $2m+ Community
Sold
Median List Price
Avg Price / SF (Sold)
Avg Days on Market
Seattle
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Eastside
1
$6,500,000
$1,613
72 days
Mercer Island
1
$4,700,000
$888
104 days
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