2012_1Q_Report

2011 2012

Quarter QUARTER

Fsecond I R S T Quarter

VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home

速速 PublishedbybyVirginia Virginiaassociation associationofofreaLtors reaLtors , theadvocate advocateforfor Published , the realestate estateprofessionals professionalsand andproperty propertyowners ownersininVirginia.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2009

2010

2011

2012

10,000

Virginia Mo

Single Fam

8,000

2009 12,000

6,000

4,000

10,000

2,000

0 January

February

March

April

May

June

Number of Condo SingleSales Family, Townhome and Condo Sales Number of Single Family, Townhome and

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

July

Virginia Mon

Single Famil 2009

8,000 12,000 August

September October

November December

Month

Jul 6,000 Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

9,59310,000 8,545

8,018

8,384

7,892

6,573

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

2009

4,758

5,391

6,740

7,212

8,096

9,849

2010

4,562

4,892

7,087

8,337

8,903

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

2011

4,713

5,113

7,104

6,760

8,390

8,220

7,968

8,133

6,916

6,246

6,043

6,688

2012

4,945

5,710

6,996

4,000 8,000

The pace of residential home sales increased in Virginia during the first quarter of 2012, compared to the previous three years.

This surge in real estate activity began with strong sales in 2,000 6,000 January and February -- both at the highest levels seen since at least 2009. March 2012 sales were not quite as strong as March 2010 and 2011, but they were strong enough to keep the overall first quarter ahead as compared to the first quarters of the three0 4,000 previous years.

-1.6% best in 4 years best in 4 years

January

February

March

April

Looking ahead, the second quarter of 2012 will likely compare favorably to 2011, as home sales were rather slow in both April and June of last year.

2,000

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733

28,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

26,156 26,000

25,157

24,000

23,370

22,849

23,017

22,000 20,774 20,000

18,977

18,513 18,000

17,651 16,889

16,930

16,541

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter

When viewed on a quarterly basis, the first quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with a 4.3% increase in home sales as compared to the first quarter of 2011. This is the second year in a row of growth in first quarter home sales in Virginia, after sales dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2010.

For the second quarter 2012 home sales trend, we are likely to see an increase, since home sales during the second quarter of last year were the lowest pace of second quarter sales seen in the past several years. Two significant factors contributing to continued strength in Virginia’s housing market are current historically low mortgage interest rates and continued low unemployment levels as compared to other areas of the country.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

95,000

90,000

85,000

80,000

93,279 89,640

91,051 88,127

Market

90,703 87,897

87,843

oost

Decline

Tax

it B Cred

Po

st

83,561

81,830

Tax -

75,000

83,950

Cre

dit

82,294

83,015

79,587

De

cli

ne

ry?

Recove

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter

When examining long term trends, it seems nearly certain that the worst is behind us as far as the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen solid increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for four quarters in a row.

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q1 figure includes home sales from 2011-Q2 through 2012-Q1. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market.

While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions.

While the federal home buyer tax credit provided a brief respite from declining home sales between 2009-Q3 and 2010-Q2, the pace of sales declined again all the way through the second quarter of 2012 when the market began to pick up steam again.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Regional Changes in Sales 2011-Q1 vs. 2012-Q1 Units

Northern Virginia -0.3% Central Valley +9.9%

Central Virginia +3.8% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +8.8% Southwest Virginia +38.2%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +7.3%

Southside Virginia +6.5%

Region

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

Change

Central Valley

860

945

+9.9%

Central Virginia

2,588

2,687

+3.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

4,019

4,312

+7.3%

Northern Virginia

7,773

7,753

-0.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,192

1,297

+8.8%

Southside Virginia

355

378

+6.5%

Southwest Virginia

173

239

+38.2%

Home sales increased in nearly every region of the Commonwealth during the first quarter of 2012 as compared to the first quarter of 2011. The largest, most populated region (Northern Virginia) did not fare quite as well (-0.3%) as all of the other regions in Virginia (+3.8% to +38.2%).

Looking back at earlier data, the lack of increase in sales in Northern Virginia can be attributed to earlier market recoveries in those regions.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$235,000 $210,000

$232,500

$249,900

$239,900

$225,000

$225,839

$229,900

$216,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$229,900

$300,000

+2.4%

$200,000

-0.5% $150,000

$100,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.4% over the past year to $215,000 for all residential sales. The median sales price did show a decline from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, but this is typical for this timeframe.

Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has only decreased by 0.5% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2011-Q1 vs. 2012-Q1

Northern Virginia +5.9% Central Valley -1.2%

Central Virginia -4.1% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -1.4% Southwest Virginia +6.2%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1.4%

Southside Virginia +11.1%

Region

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

Change

Central Valley

$188,200

$186,000

-1.2%

Central Virginia

$170,000

$163,000

-4.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$187,608

$185,000

-1.4%

Northern Virginia

$283,250

$300,000

+5.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$140,000

$138,000

-1.4%

Southside Virginia

$71,000

$78,900

+11.1%

Southwest Virginia

$91,090

$96,750

+6.2%

After serveral years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see stability and even increases in sales prices for some regions. When comparing the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2011, only one region (Central Virginia) experienced a decline in median sales price of more than -2%. While Northern Virginia experienced a slight decline in the pace of sales (-0.3%) during this time frame, the median sales price actually increased 5.9%.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000

7,625 7,192

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

7,182 7,000

6,787 6,411

6,402

6,000 5,433

5,263

5,000 4,416

4,739

4,553

4,496

4,000

3,000

2,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter

This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2012 ($4.7B) marks a 5.4% increase from the first quarter of 2011 ($4.5B). This is the first quarterly increase seen in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120 108 100

100

103

96 91 87

84

92

91

86 79

80

Average Days On Market

100

81

60

40

20

0 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter

The average time to market and sell a house has inreased slightly (+3%) over the past year, but has declined 5% over the past three years. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011-Q1

$2M +

21 +29% 27

$1.5M - $2M

32 +25% 40 134 +4% 139

$1M - $1.5M

329 -1% 326

$750K - $1M

Price Range

2012-Q1

1,256 +4% 1,300

$500K - $750K

1,161 +7% 1,246

$400K - $500K

2,110 +14% 2,411

$300K - $400K

3,843 +1% 3,872

$200K - $300K

5,353 n/a 5,364

$100K - $200K 2,727 +7% 2,926

0 - $100K 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

Home sales increased in nearly every price range during the first quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the first quarter of 2011. Of note, the more moderate price ranges ($100K-$200K, $200K-$300K) experienced very little change in sales pace, while price ranges above $300K experienced much more of an increase during this time period.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2011-Q4 vs. 2012-Q1

Northern Virginia -24% Central Valley +29%

Central Virginia -26% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -9% Southwest Virginia -22%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -14%

Southside Virginia -37%

Region

2011-Q4

2012-Q1

Change

Central Valley

77

99

+29%

Central Virginia

586

435

-26%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

673

582

-14%

Northern Virginia

1,523

1,159

-24%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

118

107

-9%

Southside Virginia

84

53

-37%

Southwest Virginia

27

21

-22%

All of Virginia

3,088

2,456

-21%

Foreclosure rates decreased in nearly every region in Virginia in the first quarter of 2012 to mark an overall 21% decline in Virginia foreclosures as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The largest proportional declines were seen in Southside Virginia (-37%), Central Virginia (-26%), Northern Virginia (-24%) and Southwest Virginia (-22%).

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000

500,000

12,000 10,000

361,000

347,000

8,000 6,000

400,000 300,000

7,104

6,996

200,000

4,000 100,000

2,000 0

0 Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. March 2012 home sales increased 4% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to March 2011, while Virginia experienced a 2% decline.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$300,000 $250,000

$240,000 $225,000

$215,000

$220,000 $200,000

$200,000

$180,000

$150,000

$160,000 $163,800

$159,800 $100,000

$140,000 $120,000

$50,000

$100,000 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Feb-12 Mar-12

Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (March 2011 to March 2012), though home values increased a bit more in Virginia (+5% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+3%).

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

7.2% 6.7%

6.9%

7.0%

7.4%

7.0% 6.5%

6.4%

6.3%

6.5% 6.0%

6.1% 5.6%

2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1

2012-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2012 data.

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, March 2012 (U.S. rate = 8.2 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate is at its lowest levels (5.6%) in more than three years, and Virginia currently has the 9th lowest unemployment rate in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.0% 5.5% 5.0%

5.42% 5.06%

5.00%

4.93%

4.97% 4.74%

4.5%

4.71%

4.86% 4.51%

4.35%

4.01%

4.0%

3.95%

3.99%

3.5% 3.0% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

4.9% 4.6%

4.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.0%

4.2%

4.1% 3.8%

3.5%

4.1% 3.7% 3.3%

3.0%

3.0%

3.2%

2.5% 2.0% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1

Long-term mortgage interest rates have remained relatively steady over the past six months with 30-year fixed rates hovering just under 4%, and 15-year fixed rates remaining just above 3%.

These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q1

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

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