2016-10 Virginia Home Sales Report

OCTOBER

2016

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.

October 2016

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Central

Southside

Eastern

Southwest

Hampton Roads

Valley

Northern

West Central

Central

Eastern Hampton Roads

Northern

Southside

Southwest

Valley

West Central

Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond

Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg

Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park

Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville

Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton

Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester

Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

October Market Summary October 2016 residential real estate sales performed steadily relative to prior year benchmarks, rebalancing from a third quarter balloon and still reflecting high buyer demand. The value of transactions for October 2016 was $2.815 billion, up 1 percent from the same month in 2015 ($2.787 billion). Volume through the end of October 2016 exceeded $31.970 billion, a gain of 6.4 percent from last year’s accumulation of $30.050 billion.

As high demand overcame typical seasonal trends, October median price was unchanged month‐over‐month and was 5.0 percent higher than in the same month last year ($262,500 over $250,000 in October 2015). Typically, price drops month‐to‐ month from June through the end of the year. Average length of time on the market decreased markedly year‐over‐year, by 16.7 percent (from 78 days last October to 65 this year). The number of October transactions in 2016 was slightly fewer than in 2015, declining 0.9 percent from 8,870 to 8,789. October sales reflect buyer eagerness to absorb inventory and take advantage of continued low financing rates.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

Sales Pace ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome 14,000 12,000

13,222 11,820

11,739 10,204

10,000

10,171

9,566 8,870

8,000

11,450 11,642

8,750

8,789

8,629

7,020 5,931

6,000

9,857

6,536

4,000

0.9 %

2,000 0

The number of home sales in Virginia decreased year‐over‐year by 0.9 percent, from 8,870 in October of 2015 to 8,789 in October of 2016.

Sales Pace ‐ October Benchmarks Single Family, Condo, Townhome 10,000 8,870

9,000 8,000

8,789

8,447 7,996 7,283

7,000 6,000 5,000 Oct '12

Oct '13

Oct '14

Oct '15

Oct '16

The historical trend line for October sales indicates sustained long term improvement.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

$262,500

$262,500

$272,000

$278,000

$276,000

$265,000

$252,500

$245,000

$246,000

$250,000

$264,000

$251,958

$260,000

$250,000

$270,000

$251,930

$280,000

$268,000

$290,000

$275,000

$300,000

$289,900

Median Sales Price Single Family, Condo, Townhome

$240,000 $230,000

5.0 %

$220,000

Median sales price for October 2016 rose 5.0 percent year‐over‐year, from $250,000 to $262,500.

Month‐over‐month, median price was static. Median price typically falls from June through December, so stability month‐to‐month suggests high demand. A year‐over‐year increase suggests sustained strength in the market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

Residential Sales Volume ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome $5.000 $4.500

$3.000

$2.787

Billions

$3.500

$2.815

$4.000

$2.500 $2.000 $1.500

1.0%

$1.000 $0.500 $0.000

October 2016 sales volume increased 1.0 percent from the previous year benchmark, from $2.787 billion to $2.815 billion. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home sale price in Virginia and, therefore, generally follows sales pace and median price trends. For October 2016, year‐over‐year increase in volume was attributed to the strong increase in median price, as pace fell marginally.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

Average Days on the Market Single Family, Condo, Townhome 100 86

90 78

80 70

64

69

78

85 79

77

72

71 63

60

58

60

61

63

65

50 40

‐16.7%

30 20 10 0

The average number of days on the market in October 2016 (65) decreased 16.7 percent from last October (78). The relative speed of transactions reflects sustained urgency among buyers.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0% 6.5%

4.2%

4.0%

3.9%

3.7%

3.7%

3.7%

4.0%

3.9%

4.0%

4.1%

4.1%

4.2%

4.1%

4.2%

4.5%

4.3%

4.5%

4.8%

4.9%

4.9%

4.8%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.8%

5.0%

4.8%

5.5%

4.9%

6.0%

3.5% 3.0%

The Virginia unemployment rate for October 2016 rose slightly to 4.2 percent (seasonally adjusted).

Average 30 ‐Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.25% 4.05% 3.94%

3.96%

3.85%

3.87%

3.80% 3.66%

3.65%

3.69% 3.61%

3.60%

3.57%

3.45% 3.25% Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15

3.44%

Jan‐16

Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16 May‐16 Jun‐16

Jul‐16

3.44%

3.46%

3.47%

Aug‐16 Sep‐16 Oct‐16

Average 30‐year fixed mortgage interest rates rose in October 2016 to 3.47 percent. Rates have remained at historic lows, continuing to offer incentive to prospective buyers. Following the presidential election, weekly average rates have risen and speculation has intensified that the Federal Reserve Bank may raise the key rate.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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October 2016

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict code of ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:

Jenny Wortham Virginia Association of REALTORS® Jenny@VARealtor.com 804‐262‐3755

The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded November 14, 2016

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