2016-08 Virginia Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.

2016

AUGUST

August 2016

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Central

Southside

Eastern

Southwest

Hampton Roads

Valley

Northern

West Central

Central

Eastern Hampton Roads

Northern

Southside

Southwest

Valley

West Central

Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond

Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg

Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park

Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville

Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton

Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester

Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

1

August 2016

August Market Summary August 2016 residential real estate sales strengthened significantly relative to the same month last year. The value of transactions for August 2016 was $3.793 billion, a significant 14.8 percent jump from August 2015. Volume through the end of August 2016 exceeded $25.941 billion, a gain of 6.8 percent from last year’s accumulation of $24.294 billion.

The market rebounded strongly from a relatively sluggish July and continues to outperform prior years. Following seasonal trends, August median price declined slightly month‐over‐month and from the June peak but was 1.7 percent higher than in the same month last year ($272,500 over $268,000 in 2015). Average length of time on the market decreased markedly, by 13 percent (from 69 days last August to 60 in August 2016). Atypical of industry seasonality, August 2016 sales were slightly higher than July sales; the market typically peaks in June and begins to taper through the end of the year. The number of August transactions grew year‐over‐year by 12.5 percent, from 10,204 sales to 11,482. Greater August sales may reflect that more inventory has come onto the market, expanding buying opportunities and boosting sales and volume.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

Sales Pace ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome 14,000 12,000

13,200

12,684 11,820 10,369

11,729

10,204

10,000

9,566

11,482 11,408

10,164 8,868

8,000

8,748

8,619

7,019 5,914

6,000 4,000

6,527

12.5 %

2,000 0

The number of home sales in Virginia increased year‐over‐year by 12.5 percent, from 10,204 in August of 2015 to 11,482 in August of 2016. Atypical of industry seasonal trends, sales increased slightly (.6 percent) from July. Historically, the Virginia market has peaked in June in sales activity and other performance indicators, including price and length of time on the market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

Sales Pace ‐ August Benchmarks Single Family, Condo, Townhome 11,482

12,000 11,000

10,234

10,204 9,487

10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 August 2013

August 2014

August 2015

August 2016

August 2016 sales indicate long‐term improvement from earlier benchmarks. Year‐over‐year gains indicate sustained strengthening in the market.

Sales Pace ‐ January through August Single Family, Condo, Townhome 90,000 80,000

74,659

70,000

10,204 10,234

60,000

79,043 11,482

9,487

50,000 40,000 30,000

59,841

57,301

2013

2014

64,455

5.9 %

67,561

20,000 10,000 ‐ 2015

2016

Year‐to‐date sales have continued to grow over the long‐term. Year‐to‐date sales through August 2016 exceeded sales for the same period last year by 5.9 percent (79,043 sales over 74,659), and were 18.4 percent greater than for the same period in 2014.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

Median Sales Price Single Family, Condo, Townhome

$272,500

$278,000

$289,900

$276,000

$265,000

$252,000

$244,900

$250,000

$245,315

$264,000

$251,915

$250,000

$270,000

$251,930

$268,000

$290,000

$275,000

$310,000

$275,000

$330,000

$284,000

$350,000

$230,000 $210,000

1.7 %

$190,000

Median sales price for August 2016 rose 1.7 percent year‐over‐year, from $268,000 to $272,500.

Month‐over‐month, median price dropped 2 percent from $278,000. Median price typically peaks in June. A year‐over‐year increase suggests sustained strength in the market. Supporting other indicators of August 2016 strength, the seasonal decline in median price from July this year was less pronounced (2 percent) than last year (2.6 percent).

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

Residential Sales Volume ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome $3.793

$5.00

Billions of Dollars

$4.00 $3.50

$3.303

$4.50

$3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50

14.8 %

$1.00 $0.50 $0.00

August 2016 sales volume increased significantly by nearly 15 percent from the previous year benchmark. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home sale price in Virginia and, therefore, generally follows sales pace and median price trends. The year‐over‐year increase in volume was magnified by significant increase in pace, or number of sales, and steady increase in median price.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

Average Days on Market Single Family, Condo, Townhome 100 86

90 78

80 70

67

62

64

78

85 80

77

72

69

71 63

60

58

60

60

50 40 30

‐ 13 %

20 10 0

The average number of days on the market in August 2016 (60) decreased 13 percent from last August (69). Though average time on the market typically lengthens as the market transitions from summer into the third quarter, this year August remained on par with July. Sustained urgency among buyers, even as inventory loosened, may account for the relative speed of transactions.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0%

3.7% Jul‐16

3.9%

3.7% Jun‐16

4.0%

3.7%

4.0% Mar‐16

3.9%

4.1% Feb‐16

4.1% Jan‐16

4.2% Nov‐15

4.2%

4.2% Oct‐15

Dec‐15

4.2% Sep‐15

4.6% Apr‐15

4.2%

4.7% Mar‐15

4.5%

Aug‐15

4.8% Feb‐15

4.3%

4.8% Jan‐15

Jul‐15

4.8% Dec‐14

4.4%

4.9% Nov‐14

Jun‐15

5.0% Oct‐14

5.0%

4.5%

5.0% Sep‐14

5.5%

5.1%

6.0%

Aug‐14

6.5%

3.5% Aug‐16

May‐16

Apr‐16

May‐15

3.0%

NOTE: all figures updated September 20, 2016.

The Virginia unemployment rate for August 2016 rose slightly to 3.9 percent (seasonally adjusted).

Average 30 ‐Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.25% 4.05% 3.91%

3.85%

3.94%

3.89%

3.96% 3.87%

3.80% 3.66%

3.65%

3.69% 3.61%

3.60%

3.57%

3.45%

3.44%

3.44%

Jul‐16

Aug‐16

3.25% Aug‐15

Sep‐15

Oct‐15

Nov‐15

Dec‐15

Jan‐16

Feb‐16

Mar‐16

Apr‐16

May‐16

Jun‐16

Average 30‐year fixed mortgage interest rates remained static in August 2016 at 3.44 percent. Rates are likely to remain at historic lows, continuing to offer incentive to prospective buyers. The latest indications from the Federal Reserve Bank suggest that a key interest rate increase may continue to be stalled, as inflation is below target and the national unemployment rate has not changed greatly.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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August 2016

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict code of ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:

Jenny Wortham Virginia Association of REALTORS® Jenny@VARealtor.com 804‐262‐3755

or

Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804‐249‐5708

The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016

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