2015-Q3 Virginia Home Sales Report

2011 2015

second second T HIRD Quarter QUARTER Quarter

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q2

Third Quarter Market Summary There were approximately 31,176 home sales in Virginia in the third quarter, 13% more than in the third quarter of 2014. Increased sales were experienced in every price range, except homes that sold for more than $1M. Increased sales in nearly every price range may be an indication of higher consumer confidence and overall market health. Each region of Virginia experienced higher yearover-year sales, with the exception of the Central Valley.

The median sales price indicated little seasonal change in sales prices in the third quarter. Prices increased from the second to third quarter, which is somewhat unusual in recent years. Median sales price increased 2.3% yearover-year, but year-over-year changes varied throughout the state. Regional changes in median sales price ranged from a decrease of 2.3% in the Central Valley to 9.0% and 9.5% in Southside and Southwest Virginia respectively.

Days on the market increased throughout the quarter, following a typical seasonal trajectory. Nonetheless, days on the market in the third quarter of 2015 were 6.8% lower than the third quarter of 2014.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012

2013

2014

2015

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2012

5,068

5,775

7,213

7,698

9,064

9,740

8,664

9,026

7,213

7,259

7,405

6,847

2013

5,533

5,942

7,470

8,665

10,488

10,802

10,383

10,155

8,186

7,950

6,949

7,559

2014 2015

5,356 5,772

5,642 6,044

7,109 8,441

8,467 9,079

9,647 10,232

10,579 12,358

10,121 11,723

9,421 10,113

8,290 9,340

8,398

6,599

8,231

There were approximately 9,340 home sales in September 2015, 13% more sales than in September 2014. Sales decreased 7.6% from August to September, a relatively small decrease compared to previous years. Since sales typically stay relatively constant from September to October, Virginia is likely to show strong sales throughout the fall, barring any dramatic decrease in November.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

35,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

32,041

31,176

29,962

30,000

28,757

28,728

+11.31% YOY

28,008

26,502 25,000

24,911 23,392

22,458 21,509 20,000

21,327 18,910

18,153

15,000

10,000 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 Quarter

The pace of home sales was 11.31% higher in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the third quarter of 2014. Large year-over-year increases in sales in July (15.25%) and September (11.8%) account for the majority of the year-over-year increase in quarterly sales. Sales in August 2015 were 6.7% higher than sales in August 2014.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

110,000

106,950

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

104,768 99,109

100,000

100,058 99,301

95,292

90,978 90,000

86,658

101,484 98,096

97,376

98,310

91,832

88,568

+23.4%

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2015-Q3 figure (106,950 sales) includes home sales from October 2014 through September 2015. This rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

The annualized sales measure increased 2.1% from 2015-Q2 to 2015-Q3. The third quarter of 2015 was the fourth consecutive quarter of increase in this measure, after a steady decline from 2013-Q4 to 2014-Q3. Further, annualized sales have increased 23.4% since the second quarter of 2012. Sustained growth in this measure is a good indication of improved long-term performance in the residential real estate market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Regional Changes in Sales 2014-Q3 vs. 2015-Q3 Units

Northern Virginia +10.7% Central Valley -7.2%

Central Virginia +13.1%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +18.8% Southwest Virginia +16.3%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +14.0%

Southside Virginia +3.8%

Region

2014-Q3

2015-Q3

Change

Central Valley

1,808

1,678

-7.2%

Central Virginia

4,651

5,262

13.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

6,411

7,308

14.0%

Northern Virginia

12,077

13,374

10.7%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

2,218

2,636

18.8%

Southside Virginia

495

514

3.8%

Southwest Virginia

343

399

16.3%

All of Virginia

28,003

31,171

11.3%

Almost every region of the state experienced a relatively strong third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2014, with the exception of the Central Valley. The Central Valley experienced a 7.2% decrease in sales year-over-year, with 130 fewer sales in 2015-Q3 than in the third quarter of 2014.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$350,000

$265,000

$259,990

$244,467

$255,000

$259,000

$267,000 $235,000

$249,000

$254,000

$269,900 $233,000

$241,000

$250,000

$248,000

$249,500

Median Sales Price

$300,000

+2.3% $200,000

+6.9%

$150,000 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased slightly (2.3%) year-over-year to $265,000 in the third quarter of 2015. An increase in median price from the second quarter to the third quarter is unusual for Virginia in recent years. Over the longer term, the median sales price in Virginia increased 6.9% over the third quarter of 2012. Virginia prices remain very stable, showing very little seasonal change.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 8

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2014-Q3 vs. 2015-Q3

Northern Virginia -1.3% Central Valley -2.3%

Central Virginia +3.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -0.6% Southwest Virginia +9.5%

Southside Virginia +9.0%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +4.7%

Region

2014-Q3

2015-Q3

Change

Central Valley

$220,000

$215,000

-2.3%

Central Virginia

$209,000

$216,000

3.3%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$215,000

$225,000

4.7%

Northern Virginia

$379,900

$375,000

-1.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$164,975

$164,000

-0.6%

Southside Virginia

$81,900

$89,250

9.0%

Southwest Virginia

$105,000

$115,000

9.5%

All of Virginia

$259,000

$265,000

2.3%

Regional changes in median sales price ranged from a decrease of 2.3% in the Central Valley to and increase of 4.7% in the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region. Southside and Southwest Virginia showed more dramatic increases, 9.0% and 9.5% respectively, but lower overall sales prices and fewer sales make the percent change more dramatic and less meaningful. Overall, the median sales price stayed relatively stable throughout the state.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

12

11

10.71 10.07

9.91

10

9.54

Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9.30

9.06

9

+11.1%

8.20 8

7

6

7.68

7.40 6.93 6.45

6.21 5.50

5.36

5

4

3

2

2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2014-Q3 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2015 ($10.1B) increased 11% from the third quarter of 2014 ($9.1B). Sales volume increased primarily due to increased sales, since increases in sales were much more significant than increases in price throughout the state (see pages 7 and 9).

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2014-Q3 $2M + $1.5M - $2M

53 53

0%

107 89

-20.2% 386 372

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

-3.8% 835 962

$750K - $1M

2015-Q3

13.2% 3,097 3,416

$500K - $750K 2,701

$400K - $500K

3,130

9.3%

13.7% 4,404

$300K - $400K

5,111

13.8% 6,637

$200K - $300K

7,478

11.2%

7,052

$100K - $200K

7,686 2,745 2,879

0 - $100K

0

500

8.2%

4.7%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Year-over-year home sales increased in all price ranges in the third quarter, except for homes selling for more than $1M. Sales in the $300K-$1M ranges showed the largest increase, but home sales in the lower price ranges also increased substantially. Increased sales in nearly every price range may be an indication of higher consumer confidence and overall market health.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

100

90

85

88

92

91

89

84 81

80

80 71

73

71

73 68

Average Days On Market

70

60

68

-6.8% YOY

50

40

30

20

10

0 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3

Quarter

Days on the market decreased 6.8% year-over-year. Average days on the market remained the same from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2015, which has become a trend over the past three years. Days on the market increased throughout the third quarter, from 64 in July to 71 in September.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 12

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

16,000

600,000

14,000

434,000

12,000 10,000

446,000

500,000

400,000

10,172

10,113

8,000

300,000

6,000

200,000

4,000 100,000

2,000 0

Jul-14

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-14 (p) Jan-15 (p) Feb-15 (p) Mar-15 (p) Apr-15 (p) May-15 (p) Jun-15 (p)

Jul-15 (p)

Aug-15 (p)

0

The pace of Virginia home sales has been similar to the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout 2015, but decreased more substantially in August. Virginia’ experienced a particularly low number of sales in August, so high sales in September will likely put Virginia back in sync with the sales in the U.S. as a whole.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)

$300,000

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

$268,000

$266,500

$250,000

$300,000 $250,000

$230,200

$200,000 $222,500

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15 (p)

May-15 (p)

Jun-15 (p)

Jul-15 (p)

Aug-15 (p)

$50,000

The Virginia median sales price decreased more substantially than the U.S. median price from June to August. The Virginia median sales price generally tracks the trajectory of U.S. median sales price, while remaining higher overall. *Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as reported by Realtor.org. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%

5.9%

5.8%

5.6% 5.3%

5.5%

5.4%

5.3%

5.2% 4.9%

2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2014-Q2

2014-Q3

4.8%

4.7%

2014-Q4

2015-Q1

4.9%

2015-Q2

4.8%

2015-Q3

2015-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary February 2015 data.

Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjusted, September 2015 (U.S. rate = 5.1 percent)

9.0% and over 8.0% to 8.9% 7.0% to 7.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 5.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

4.0% to 4.9% 3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in September, while the national rate remained unchanged. Decreasing unemployment rates typically have a positive influence on consumer confidence and long-term decreases could boost home sales. September is the third consecutive month in which Virginia has experienced a decrease in its unemployment rate.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.6% 4.44%

4.4%

4.30%

4.2%

4.36%

4.23%

4.14%

4.0%

3.97%

3.8% 3.6%

3.72%

3.69% 3.54%

3.4%

3.83%

3.95%

3.50% 3.36%

3.2%

3.0% 2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2014-Q2

2014-Q3

2014-Q4

2015-Q1

2015-Q2

2015-Q3

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

3.6% 3.5%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

3.2%

3.3%

3.3%

3.2% 3.0%

3.0% 2.8%

2.8% 2.7%

2.6%

2.7%

3.1%

3.1%

2.9%

2.4% 2.2%

2.0% 2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2014-Q2

2014-Q3

2014-Q4

2015-Q1

2015-Q2

2015-Q3

Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates increased in each month of the third quarter of 2015, although both 30-year and 15-year rates decreased marginally throughout the quarter. July rates were the highest of 2015 thus far, at 4.05% for 30-year mortgages and 3.21% for 15-year mortgages.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q3

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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