2011 Virginia Housing Report

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S 速

Home Pieces of

2011 Virginia Housing

Report V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S 速

i

We like to think we’ll look back at 2011 as the year things finally began turning around for real estate. It was the year where, slowly but surely, the bad news finally began to ebb. We might not be ready to say that Virginia’s markets are out of the woods, but in 2011—without artificial stimulus—we were able to see significant improvements.

And that’s just the numbers. It’s easy to forget, sometimes, that there are people behind that data. There are families who can finally afford a dream home, who can move to a better school district, or who are able to refinance and stay financially afloat. There are people wondering when they’ll be able to sell their homes, and people who have taken the leap to buying their first.

We’d all do well to remember them: Virginia’s homes and families, communities and jobs—the lives that are far more than dots on a chart or entries in a table. Keep that in mind as you read the numbers and stories inside, and as you consider the challenges we’ve faced and the new ones to come. These are pictures of families, struggles, and celebration, and as always, our springboard into 2012.

Trish Szego CRB, CRS

President, Virginia Association of Realtors®

1

R. Scott Brunner, CAE CEO, Virginia Association of Realtors®

TABLE OF CONTENTS 03 07 08 09 11 12

residential home sales

annualized 2008-2011 quarter-to-quarter today’s housing— what’s really relevant virginia vs. united states changes in foreclosures understanding mortgage defaults

13 15 16 17 18 19

american homeownership timeline federal housing issues positives and negatives today’s housing market new home construction in virginia

21 23 24 25

regional snapshots housing virginia

are you age-ready? vhda

mortgage rates and 2012 economy mortgage interest rates 15 year and 30 year

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

2

VIRGINIA MONTH-TO-MONTH SALES TRENDS

S I N G L E FA M I LY H O M ES , TOW N H O M ES , C O N D O S

2008

2009

2010

2011

12,000

10,000

8,000

sales

6,000

number of

4,000

2,000 0

CHANGE IN HOME SALES 2010 VS 2011

2010 TOTAL SALES = 83,578

2011 TOTAL SALES = 83,748

10,000 5,000

0

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® 2011 Month-to-Month VA Home Sales // 2008 – 2011 Looking back over the past several years, there are both long-term trends in home sales and short-term impacts of the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit. The tax credit caused home sales to increase to higher than normal levels (Oct-Nov 2009, Apr-Jun 2010) and then

3

to fall to lower than normal levels (Jul-Sep 2010). Thus, aside from the shifting around of home sales based on the timing of the tax credit, Virginia’s overall housing market increased by less than a percentage between 2008 and 2009, then declined 8% between 2009 and 2010, and then increased by .2%. between 2010 and 2011.

+.2% Change of Home Sales // 2010 VS 2011

Virginia home sales in 2011 exceeded home sales levels in 2010 (by +.2%) despite the lack of a Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit to boost the housing market The impact of the 2010 Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit is clear when examining the strong sales figures in April through June of 2010, and the then slower months of July through September of 2010.

+

DEC

REGIONAL C HANGES

IN HOME SALES // 2010 VS 2011

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors速 Some regional housing markets strengthened in 2011 and some experienced a further decline to the pace of home sales. The Central Valley of Virginia experienced the most significant increase in sales (+ 28%), and the Northern Virginia region experienced the only decline (- 8%).

R EG I O N A L C H A N G ES I N H O M E SA L ES // 2 010 VS 2 01 1

CENTRAL +27.85% NORTHERN VALLEY VIRGINIA

HAMPTON ROADS +6.27% -8.43% CENTRAL +5.26% CHESAPEAKE BAY VIRGINIA

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 4,3 2 7

//

5, 5 3 2

4 1 ,0 8 3

//

3 7,61 9

1 2 ,07 7

//

1 2 ,7 1 2

+5.07%

ROAONOKE LY N C H B U R G BLACKSBURG

SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA

2010 2011 5, 9 23

//

1 ,4 7 7

2010 2011 //

//

18, 9 0 5

+7.99%

2010 2011

6, 2 23

SOUTHWEST V I R G I N I A +16.79% 953

17,7 9 0

// 1,595

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

1 , 1 13

CENTRAL VALLEY

CENTRAL VIRGINIA ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG/BLACKSBURG SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA

HAMPTON ROADS/ CHESAPEAKE BAY 4

IN VIRGINIA

H O M E PR I CES

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Virginia’s median* sales price typically fluctuates from month to month based on the pace of buyer activity during different seasons of the year. The median sales price in Virginia began the year at $205,000 based on January 2011 home sales, peaked at $244,800 in June 2011, and closed out the year at $225,000 based on December home sales. Despite this January to December increase, the year over year change (December to December) showed a 3.3% decline in median sales prices.

Median sales prices vary quite drastically throughout Virginia, from a low of $80,000 in Southside Virginia, to a high of $315,000 in Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia was the only region to see an increase in median sales prices over the past year (+1.6%), while most other areas of Virginia experienced declines of up to 8%. * The median sales price is a frequently used metric to evaluate changes in home values over time. The median sales price is the center value of a group of sales prices—the point at which half of home sales higher and half are lower than this median value.

R EG I O N A L C H A N G ES IN M E D I A N SA L E P R I C ES / / 2 010 VS 2 01 1

CENTRAL -1.89% VALLEY

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

+1.6%

HAMPTON ROADS CHESAPEAKE BAY

$ 3 1 5,0 0 0

$ 2 1 5,0 0 0

$225,000

-8.8%

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 $ 2 10,0 0 0

//

$ 2 0 6,0 13

$ 3 0 9, 9 0 0

//

-3.8% CENTRAL VIRGINIA

ROAONOKE LY N C H B U R G BLACKSBURG

-6.5%

//

$ 1 9 6,0 0 0

2011

-5.7%

SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 $ 15 5,0 0 0

//

$ 14 9,0 0 0

$ 1 9 0,0 0 0

//

$ 17 7, 5 0 0

$ 8 4, 9 0 0

//

VI RGI NI A M E DI AN SALE PRI CE

$ 8 0,0 0 0

-7.6%

SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

2010 2011 $ 1 19,2 0 0

MEDIAN

//

$ 1 10,07 5

SALE PRICE

2011 MONTH-TO-MONTH $ 205 5

000

$213

$215

$ 230

$225

$244

$240

$239

$223

$215

$220

$225

JA N

FEB

M AR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AU G

S EP

O CT

NOV

DEC

700

000

000

888

800

000

000

000

000

200

000

V I RG I N I A

PRICE DISTRIBUTION IN HOME SALES // 2010 VS 2011

2 010

2 01 1

CHANGE % -14.17%

PRICE RANGES

-3.40% -1.43% +3.64% 7,472 7,267

-2.74%

6,729 6,477

-3.74% 12,433 11,403

-8.28% 20,245 18,867

-6.81% 24,724 24,691

-0.13%

00 25 ,0

24 ,0 00

0 23 ,0 0

22 ,0 00

21 ,0 00

20 ,0 00

0 19 ,0 0

00 18 ,0

17 ,0 00

00 16 ,0

15 ,0 00

+33.14% 14 ,0 00

13 ,0 00

0 12 ,0 0

00 11 ,0

0

0

10 ,0 0

9, 00

0 8, 00

00 7, 0

00 6, 0

00

8,931 11,891

5, 0

4, 00 0

3, 00 0

2, 00 0

1,0 00

0

127 $2 M+ 109 $1 . 5M- $2M 206199 $1 M- $1 . 5M 837825 $7 50K- $1M 1,949 2,020 $500K-$750K $400K-$500K $300K - 400K $200K - 300K $100K - $200K $0-$ 100 K

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® The trends in the pace of home sales in Virginia during 2011 varied significantly between different price ranges. Remarkably, home sales under $100,000 increased by 33% between 2010 and 2010—though this may have been the result of lower sales prices in

addition to the possibility of more buyers in that segment of the housing market.

The only other segment of the market that experienced an increase in sales was the $750K to $1M price range, though not all high-end segments performed well, as there

was a 14% decline in $2M+ home sales. Aside from the $2M+ price range, the largest decline in home sales was in the $200K - $300K and $300K - $400K price ranges showing a 7% and -8% decline, respectively.

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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V I R G I N A DAY S O N M A R K E T / / 2 01 1 M O N T H -TO - M O N T H

100

80

number of

days

90

70

100

101

99

99

95

89

89

93

97

98

100

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

101

60 50

DEC

V I R G I N IA AN N UA L IZ E D 2 0 0 8 - 2 01 1 // Q UA RT E R -TO - Q UA RT E R 100,000

number of

sales

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

94,104 90,784 90,894 90,675 89,640 88,127 87,843 91,051 90,703 93,279 87,897 83,561 83,905 80,022 81,753 83,748 2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2010 Q1

2010 Q2

2010 Q3

2010 Q4

2011 Q1

2011 Q2

2011 Q3

2011 Q4

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Annualized 2008-2011 // Quarter-to-Quarter Virginia’s housing market declined steadily from 2008 through the third quarter of 2009. Then, with the assistance of the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit, sales

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increased steadily through the second quarter of 2010.

When the tax credit ended, the pace of sales declined quickly and drastically through the second quarter of 2011. Looking at 2011 as a whole, however, shows hope for

the coming year in Virginia’s housing markets. Allowed to stand on its own, without the stimulus of a tax credit, the market seems to be improving yet again when examined between 2011-Q2 and 2011-Q4.

50,000

TODAY ’S H OUSING Laura Lafayette

WHAT’S REALLY RELEVANT

CEO, Richmond Association of Realtors®

When I think of the current state of the housing market, two quotations— one infamous, one merely famous—come to mind: Spiro Agnew’s “nattering nabobs of negativism” and Mark Twain’s “the rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

Chronically on the defensive, Agnew was whining about reporters; my complaint is with commentators—regardless of their medium—whose salaries must be proportionate to the number and intensity of the dire predictions they make about dysfunctional government, double dip recessions, and a stagnant housing market. Admittedly, paying even cursory attention to the goings-on in Washington can lead even the most optimistic among us to dismay. But all the vociferous nay-saying and constant hand-wringing not only fails to produce meaningful results, it overlooks legitimate signs of life in the economy as a whole and the housing market in particular.

That’s where Twain’s quote comes in: homeownership has suffered a mighty blow, no doubt. But it’s not dead yet, far from it. In fact, for individuals who wish to purchase their first home, for homeowners who need a bigger house, or for investors who want to increase their portfolio of rental properties, it’s hard to imagine a more favorable housing market than the one that currently exists. But to take advantage of this environment, buyers need to set aside the macro and focus on the micro. In other words, the national unemployment rate, the number of foreclosures in the U.S., and tighter underwriting requirements might all be interesting, but they’re not particularly relevant. For potential home buyers what really matters is their own employment status, their personal financial state, and the current conditions in the Virginia housing market.

In this region 2011 home sales have outpaced last year’s. That’s remarkable considering that purchasers no longer have the “artificial” inducement of a housing tax credit to prompt them to purchase. But savvy buyers have done the math and determined that, even without a tax credit, now is the time to buy. In the past twelve months, prices have declined. So a home that would have been appraised a year ago now has a lesser sale price.

No one wants to “lose” on their home, but the sale of the house allows for the purchase of another home with significantly more square footage or amenities. This other house would have sold for much more a year or so ago, but now can be purchased for less. By selling the first house and “moving up,” a buyer gains instant equity and more than likely locks in a thirty year mortgage at an incredibly low interest rate.

While most economists predict that interest rates will remain low for some time, rates will rise eventually and when they do, potential buyers who have failed to purchase will lose out. The smart move is to buy now, not later.

One final note: even if you are not considering a home purchase, you might want to cheer on those who are. If the answer to economic recovery is jobs, jobs, jobs, then we all have a stake in a healthy housing market; because no industry generates more direct and indirect employment than housing.

The carpenter who frames the home, the REALTOR® who sells it, the attorney who closes the transaction, the laborer who installs the carpet, the salesperson who helps with the selection of appliances, the pizzeria owner who gained another take-out order on moving day—the housing market matters to them all. So the next time you drive by that “For Sale” sign, think about the ownership opportunity that sign represents for you or others and think about the difference that sign makes for our collective, economic health. When the housing market performs well, we all win.

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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V I R G I N IA V S U N I TE D STAT ES / / M ONT HLY HOME SA L ES 2 01 1 600K

275K

247K

N

10K

4,713

347K

7,098

6,222

$215,000

6,903

$223,000

SEP

$160,800

$161,100

$165,300

$169,300

$171,200 $239,000 G

Y MA

AU

$171,200

$240,000

440K JUN

G

385K

$215,000

$230,000

391K

9,533

$159,800

AU

8,170

$156,100

125K 100K

8,411

8,348

$213,7000

APR

APR

375K

$157,900

SEP

6,745

369K

$205,000

MAR

5,112

175K

FE

150K

$164,000

2K

343K

$164,500

$220,200

MAR

OCT

253K

4K

225K 200K

8K 6K

5,998

$225,000

OCT

6,495

OV

B

200K

335K

250K

FE

JUL

400K

$225,888

$175,600

$244,800 JUN

350K

OV

429K

JAN

DEC

B

N

JAN

DEC

Y MA

VIRGINIA UNITED STATES

VI RGI N I A VS UN I T E D STAT ES / / ME DI AN PRI CE 2 01 1

JUL

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors®

// The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is consistent in Virginia as compared to the U.S. // Median home prices have declined in both Virginia and the U.S. over the past year, although Virginia’s median sales price remains above the nation’s, showing health in the state’s housing market.

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V I RG IN I A V S U N IT E D STAT ES / / U NEM PLOYMEN T 2 008 – 2 01 1 // Y E A R-TO -Y E A R

20 08

3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 5.1% 4.9% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6.8% 7.3%

20 09

6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 6.4% 6.9% 7.2% 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.8% 8.2% 8.6% 8.9% 9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.8% 10.1% 9.9% 9.9%

20 10

7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.8% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.6% 9.6% 9.7% 9.8% 9.4%

20 11

6.9% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.7% 8.5% JAN

FEB

VIR G IN I A ECO N O M I CS

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Chris Chmura President and Chief Economist, Chmura Economics and Analytics

At the end of the third quarter of 2011, GDP grew 2.0% after increasing 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011, easing recession concerns. Despite improved profitability, businesses are still reluctant to hire new workers although nonfarm private payroll growth for the third quarter accelerated after disappointing growth in the second quarter. The national unemployment rate remains uncomfortably high, and it is likely to remain elevated through 2012. Home sales remain depressed and home prices continue on their downward turn through the third quarter of

2011 as the housing sector will likely continue to be a drag on GDP growth through 2011. The U.S. stock market fell sharply over the third quarter as investors worried about weak domestic economic data and the European sovereign debt crisis.

Our most-likely forecast assumptions reflect a recovering economy with continued weakness in the labor market. The results are steady but not particularly strong GDP growth and modest job creation.

Though the labor market is showing signs that it has turned the corner, job growth will remain somewhat sluggish in 2012.

The unemployment rate is likely to fall to 8.7% in 2012 according to this scenario. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts to raise the federal funds rate target in the third quarter of 2013 under this most-likely scenario. 8.7% in 2012 according to this scenario. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts to raise the federal funds rate target in the third quarter of 2013 under this most-likely scenario.

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R EG I O N A L C H A N G ES IN FO R EC LO S U R ES / / 2 01 1 Q UA RT E R -TO - Q UA RT E R *

C E N T R A L V A L L E Y

C E N T R A L V I R G I N I A

H A M PTO N R OA D S C H ESA PE A KE B AY

NORTHERN V I R G I N I A

ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG BLACKSBURG

SOUTHSIDE V I R G I N I A

SOUTHWEST V I R G I N I A

S T A T E O F V I R G I N I A

30 8 2 7 1 Q2 Q1 3 9 6 Q4 2 55 Q3

397 4 6 5 Q2 Q1 4 74 Q4 530 Q3

2,06 0 2, 19 4 Q2 Q1 2,3 4 7 Q4 1 ,72 1 Q3

19 8 2 08 Q2 Q1 241 Q4 181 Q3

3,4 26 3,245 Q2 Q1 3, 279 Q4 2,4 0 2 Q3

14 2 39 Q1 Q3 81 44 Q3 Q4

5,74 4 5,0 0 1 Q2 Q1 5,8 5 0 Q4 4, 2 5 8 Q3

Q1 Q2 12 ,6 6 8 Q4 9,3 9 1 Q3 1 1 ,4 23 12 , 2 7 5

C. Theodore Koebel, Ph.D. Professor, Urban Affairs And Planning, Senior Associate, Center for Housing Research, Virginia Tech Prolonged housing market slumps make it difficult to see anything clearly.

Foreclosures are probably the darkest cloud in the gloom. We’ve been bombarded with bad news about foreclosures since the bubble burst in 2006, when the market for bad news became the only hot market in housing. A relatively unknown company specializing in an online resource to help investors find foreclosed properties, RealtyTrac®, became a national powerhouse for foreclosure data.

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*Data provided by RealtyTrac®

In prolonged market troughs, we could experience a reverse Doppler effect, where the sound of bad news receding has a higher pitch than the sound of good news approaching. We continue to hear foreclosure news at a high pitch. But focusing on foreclosures is akin to driving while only looking in the rear view mirror.

Foreclosures obviously reflect personal hardship and in the aggregate they represent excess inventory that can be a drag on a housing recovery. But they are exceptionally hard to measure accurately,

and foreclosures are, at best, a lagging indicator of a shift in the real estate cycle and are likely to seriously lag a recovery.

A better indicator of the magnitude of excess housing inventory is the vacancy rate for housing. As of the 2010 Census, the owner vacancy rate in Virginia was only 2.1% and the rental vacancy rate was 7.6%. Although both were higher than their 2005 and 2000 levels, the differences were not that substantial. Additionally, ‘other vacant units,’ including vacant units held off the market—the so-called shadow

inventory—were only 2.5% of the total inventory compared to 2.0% in 2000.

The problem facing a recovery is that we have yet to reach a new normal in housing finance although we are several years past the financial melt-down. Unless mortgage finance becomes more readily available, demand for owner-occupied housing will remain sluggish and we might keep hearing the bad news of foreclosures at a higher pitch than any news of a recovery.

UN D E R STAN D ING

MORTGAGE DEFAULTS

Michael J. Seiler Director, Institute for Behavioral and Experimental Real Estate, Old Dominion University The continued economic recession and prolonged housing crisis have resulted in an alarming increase in mortgage defaults and corresponding foreclosures. There are two primary mechanisms causing homeowners to default on their mortgages. The first is an inability to continue making the mortgage payment—known as an “economic” or “involuntary” default—which is usually brought on by a dramatic, negative economic event such as a job loss, divorce, prolonged illness or death in the family.

The second is an unwillingness to continue making the mortgage payment because the home’s value has declined to a level far below the outstanding balance on the loan. This later situation, known as being ‘underwater,’ is a burgeoning reason being cited as to why people strategically default on their mortgage and is the focus of a series of studies by the Institute for Behavioral and Experimental Real Estate. (www.IBERE.org).

The social consensus has historically held that one should first pay his mortgage and only afterwards should he pay his other bills. Until very recently, this appeared to be the widely adopted viewpoint. So why do some homeowners strategically default while others do not? Behavioral elements drive this decision, not economic ones. Specifically, contrary to the public perception that strategic defaulters are cold, calculating manipulators of the system, Seiler argues that homeowners who are underwater on their mortgage all struggle with the same decision: to continue paying their mortgage or not to continue paying. People who choose to continue paying their mortgage do so because of the negative emotional attributes such as fear, shame and guilt that arise when they default on their mortgage. Because of public notices placed in the local newspaper, eviction notices that are delivered and sometimes taped to the front door of the home, people who are foreclosed upon cannot easily keep their foreclosure a secret. In this sense, a type of “scarlet letter” is figuratively worn by the defaulting homeowner for all to ridicule and shun as they see fit. In addition to the shame and guilt motives for not electing to default, homeowners fear the financial backlash

associated with defaulting (the reduced credit score, increased difficulty in obtaining future credit, increased cost through higher interest rates when obtaining future credit) as well as relocation costs, the relative costs of renting, and so forth.

A recent study from the University of Chicago documents that moral values may also partially explain the willingness of homeowners to stand by their underwater mortgages. However, morals only go so far. The authors find that 37.4% of homeowners who view defaulting as morally objectionable will still default if their home is $200,000 underwater.

People who do not view default as morally wrong will default at the much higher rate of 59.2%.

If defaulting on a mortgage is to be avoided even at great economic cost because of emotional concerns such as fear, shame and guilt, what causes others to accept these negative emotional penalties and strategically default anyway? Seiler argues that homeowners are frustrated, even angry, with numerous parties ranging from the government for their willingness to bail out “greedy” Wall Street firms (but not most homeowners) to lenders who are unwilling to work with borrowers unless they are already in default (even to the point of tricking borrowers into resuming mortgage payments under the false guise of a potential loan modification).

With an estimated 25% of homes across the United States being underwater and a potential for another 22% going under as a result of an additional decline in home prices of just 10%, policymakers need to take the eminent threat of strategic default very seriously. It remains to be seen what will happen in the area of residential strategic mortgage defaults.

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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A ME RI C A N H O M EOW N E R S H IP T IM E L I N E 1 9 3 0 s – 2 0 0 0 s 20%

CIVILIAN CONSERVATION CORPS

WORLD WAR II 19

19 30 40 GREAT DEPRESSION PRESIDENTS:

Herbert Hoover Franklin Delano Roosevelt

19 19 19 32 33 34

Federal Home Loan Bank Act

PRESIDENT:

Homeowner Refinancing Act

10%

Harry S. Truman

19 37

Public Housing Administration US Housing Act of 1937

15%

19 42 National Housing Agency formed

National Industrial Recovery Act

FHA Created

National Housing Act

INTEREST RATES

19 44

19 47

GI Bill

Housing and Home Finance Agency formed

Residential construction halted except for war housing—FHA prioritized for war housing

5%

19 49

US Housing Act of 1949 Urban Renewal Administration

Federal Rent Control

20% 15%

19 70 13

PRESIDENTS:

Gerald Ford Jimmy Carter

Emergency Home Finance Act Lead Paint Research

19 72 RESPA Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act Housing & Community Development Act of 1974

19 74

19 77

19 75

Housing & Community Development Act of 1977

19 80

PRESIDENTS:

10%

Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush

INTEREST RATES

19 83 Housing & Urban Recovery Act

FHA GRADUATED PAYMENT MORTGAGES AND SECTION 223 FINANCING Emergency Homeowners Relief

19 87

McKinney Act HUD Reform Act Fair Housing Amendments Act

5%

19 89

19 50

VIETNAM WAR

PRESIDENT:

GI Bill Veterans’ Adjustment Act of 1952

19 SUBURBAN SPRAWL 60

PRESIDENTS:

Dwight D. Eisenhower

John F. Kennedy Lyndon B. Johnson Richard Nixon

19 19 19 52 53 54

Federal Rent Control ends

GULF WAR 19 PRESIDENT:

Bill Clinton

90

National Affordable Housing Act Americans with Disabilities Act

19 92

Housing & Community Development Act FHA Single Family Reform GSE Affordable Housing Goals

Interstate Highway System authorized

Civil Rights Act of 1964

19 19 61 65

Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) created

19 68

Fair Housing Act

CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT HUD Act of 1968

HUD Act of 1965

Urban planning grants US Housing Act of 1954

19 61

9/11 20 PRESIDENTS:

George W. Bush Barack Obama

00

American Homeownership and Economic Opportunity Act of 2000 Community Tax Relief Act

NEW MARKET TAX CREDIT, TARP

20 08

Housing and Economic Recovery Act Home value collapse and foreclosure crisis

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

14

F E DERAL

HOUSING ISSUES

Lisa A. Sturtevant Ph.D. Assistant Research Professor, George Mason University School of Public Policy, Center for Regional Analysis The national economy has been plodding unevenly through the economic recovery and the housing sector has not been giving the economy the push it needs. The housing sector, which includes real estate transactions and residential construction and remodeling, usually leads the economy out of recession. However, this time, the implosion of the housing market was the main driver of the recession. In the current post-recessionary period, the housing sector is not recovering—home sales activity has been weak and new residential construction has been virtually nonexistent.

In the midst of a sluggish economy, the Federal Government has proposed regulatory changes to increase transparency in the mortgage market and minimize the risk of another housing market collapse.

Though these efforts are well-intentioned, the new rules could impede the recovery of the housing market. In some regions of Virginia, where sales activity has improved and home prices have been on the rise for nearly two years, the effect of these two major Federal housing-related initiatives could be a slowdown in the pace of recovery of the housing market as some potential homebuyers are sidelined by new rules and others wait it out to see what additional changes are coming down the pike.

Stricter Mortgage Requirements In addition to tighter underwriting standards, there are also proposed regulations targeting the mortgage-backed securities issued by private-label financial conduits which securitize non-conforming loans. During the housing boom, there was a major shift in mortgage originations and volume from the regulated GSEs to the unregulated private-label market. The Qualified Residential Mortgages (QRM) proposal—or QRM regulation—specifies explicit rules for the types of borrowers and loans that can be issued without triggering risk retention requirements. As of December 2011, the QRM requirements are still in proposed form and regulators are negotiating with the banking industry, the GSEs and other stakeholders before a final rule is issued.

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*Article previously published in NOVA EXEC Magazine.

There are nearly a dozen specific rules in the proposed QRM regulation. The change that has gotten the most attention is the 20% downpayment requirement. Other rules in the proposed QRM regulation are also designed to reduce risk, including rules regarding the borrower’s debt-to-income ratio and a requirement that borrowers have no recent delinquencies on non-mortgage debt. Many of the other QRM rules are designed explicitly to protect borrowers, including rules against balloon payments and pre-payment penalties and limits on how much interest rates can reset in any given year and over the life of the loan.

It is unlikely that the final QRM rule will be issued anytime soon. The down payment rule is very controversial and is being met with significant opposition from Realtor®, lending, and consumer groups. However, even the discussion about stricter lending requirements could stall the housing market recovery. Furthermore, the debate over QRM and other issues related to the future of the housing market creates an environment of uncertainty in a market that desperately needs certainty.

What Can We Expect in the Virginia Housing Market?

The state of housing and mortgage finance policy is in flux. Housing is key to economic recovery. The fundamentals in many regions are there to support a continuous recovery of the local housing market—job growth, rising rents, affordable home price, historically-low interest rates and relative affordability. The regulatory playing field is changing and potential buyers and sellers need to learn the new rules. In some cases, they will wait until the final rules are determined. The waiting might be enough to the slow the recovery—at least in the short-term—despite the presence of strong market fundamentals.

THE POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES OF TODAY’S HOUSING MARKET

POSITIVES

LOW INTEREST RATES RISING RENTAL RATES AFFORDABLE HOME PRICES IMPROVING HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEET

NEGATIVES

UNSTABLE EMPLOYMENT TRENDS LOW CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TIGHT LENDING STANDARDS UNRESOLVED POLICY ISSUES

Scott Rogers Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Throughout 2011, Virginia’s housing market was strengthened by low interest rates, rising residential rental rates, affordable home prices and an improving household balance sheet based on increases in household saving habits.

Despite these positives, a return to stability in the housing market was slowed by employment trends, low consumer confidence, tight lending and underwriting standards and significant policy issues. Policy decisions and discussions that impacted Virginia’s housing market in 2011 included a possible elimination of the mortgage interest deduction,

GSE reform, changes in FHA loan limits and a new QRM proposal that would require lenders to retain 5% of the value of the loans they originate (excluding Fannie and Freddie) unless the borrowers have a 20% down payment.

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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NE W H OME CON STR UCTI ON

IN VIRGINIA

Michael Toalson CEO, Home Builders Association of Virginia We had hoped for more from 2011, but for homebuilders it was not the year of recovery. We are, however, much more hopeful about 2012.

From 1991 through 2006, homebuilding in Virginia climbed steadily—the last of those boom years saw approximately 55,000 single-family homes built in Virginia.

Mortgage interest rates were low, job growth in Virginia was outstanding and wages were rising in most parts of the state. Lenders were qualifying a record number of Virginians for new home loans.

What we didn’t know at that time was that a quarter of new home sales in those boom years were the result of the lenders’ loose financing rules—rules that, when combined with a lack of oversight and questionable practices by financial institutions, finally caught up with us. In 2007 it all came tumbling down. The housing bubble burst. The economy crashed.

That year, only 32,000 new homes were built in Virginia. By 2009 it had dropped to less than half that: 14,600 single-family homes built in the state—a 56-year low.

It looked as if 2010 might signal a turnaround when we saw a slight improvement in production (to approximately 17,000 units built). But most of those were made

17

possible only by the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. By the end of that year the tax break was gone and new home production fell back; in 2011 we built fewer than 16,000 new homes.

Worse, even the Virginia home builders who had some success in 2011 have said those sales were spotty. With financing limited and mortgages hard to come by, buyers only want the perfect house—and it’s very difficult to build the perfect house in the perfect place at the perfect price, especially now.

The home building industry is ready to contribute to the recovery of the economy of Virginia and the nation. Remember that, for every new home that’s constructed and sold, more than 55 local companies are on the job: bankers, Realtors®, landscapers, truck drivers—not to mention all the subcontractors involved in construction: carpenters, electricians, painters, plumbers, roofers and more.

So as 2012 gets into full swing, let’s all hope that Virginia’s homebuilders are back on the job and helping to carry our economy along with them.

M ORTGAGE R AT ES

AND THE 2012 ECONOMY

Andrew Kantor Editor and Information Manager, Virginia Association of Realtors® You can practically run the same headline week after week: Mortgage rates hit new lows.

The reasons are simple. When the economy is weak, people and businesses cut spending, and borrow less money. From there it’s Economics 101: low demand for loans pushes interest rates down.

Due to the weak economy, the Federal Reserve decided to take some extraordinary steps to kickstart things. Among other things, it lowered the interest rate it charges banks to nearly zero, and expects to keep it that way for the foreseeable future. By making it cheap to borrow money, the Fed hopes businesses will be enticed to expand, and consumers to spend.

From a consumer point of view, the most obvious result is historically-low mortgage rates. The quintessential 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has been averaging less than 5% since early 2010, and less than 4% since late 2011.

What do mortgage rates have to do with housing?

Obviously a lot, whether you look at housing as an engine of the economy or as a barometer of it.

Record-low mortgage rates are giving ownership an even broader appeal—and having a wider, positive effect on the entire economy. As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke realized, those ripple effects are strong—a big reason the Fed has worked to keep them low.

Lower interest rates mean homeowners (and refinancers) have more money to spend on other things: food, gardening, books, travel, movies, you name it—in other words, money to spend in the local economy. That creates jobs, which means a rising tide that lifts all boats.

And the cycle continues.

The One-Percent Difference A one-percent difference in mortgage rate has huge implications for both the shortand long- term for families and communities.

Take a $250,000, 30-year loan: • at 5% interest, the payment is $1,343 per month.

• at 4% interest, it drops to $1,193—$150 less.

That’s $1,800 per year added to the local economy from a single home. Spread out over a town or city, that can mean millions of dollars pumped into the local economy. Over the life of the loan, that one percent means a savings of more than $53,000.

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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M O RTG AG E I N T E R EST R AT ES / / 2 0 0 8 - 2 01 1 ( 3 0 Y E A R) 7%

20 08

6%

5.76%

5.92%

5.97%

5.92%

6.04%

6.32%

6.43%

6.48%

6.04%

6.20%

6.09%

5.29%

5% 4%

7%

20 09

6%

5.05%

5.13%

5.00%

4.81%

4.86%

5.42%

5.22%

5.19%

5.06%

4.95%

4.88%

4.93%

5% 4%

7%

20 10

6%

5.03%

4.99%

4.97%

5.10%

4.89%

4.74%

4.56%

4.43%

4.35%

4.23%

4.30%

4.71%

5% 4%

7%

20 11

19

6%

4.76%

4.95%

4.86%

4.78%

4.60%

4.51%

4.55%

4.22%

4.01%

4.10%

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

4.00% NOV

3.95% DEC

5% 4%

M O RTG AG E I N T E R EST R AT ES / / 2 0 0 8 - 2 01 1 ( 1 5 Y E A R) 7%

20 08

6%

5.29%

5.44%

5.42%

5.47%

5.60%

5.91%

5.97%

6.03%

5.64%

5.89%

5.79%

5.04%

5% 4%

7%

20 09

6%

4.72%

4.77%

4.64%

4.50%

4.52%

4.90%

4.69%

4.61%

4.49%

4.39%

4.34%

4.39%

5% 4%

6%

20 10

5%

4.44%

4.37%

4.33%

4.42%

4.28%

4.18%

4.04%

3.91%

3.81%

3.66%

3.68%

4.06%

4% 3%

6%

20 11

5%

4.09%

4.22%

4.08%

3.97%

3.78%

3.69%

3.66%

3.44%

3.28%

3.38%

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

3.30% NOV

3.24%

4% 3%

DEC

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S 速

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REGIONAL

SN A PSH OTS

central valley

northern virginia major industry driver

major industry driver

home sales total

home sales total

GOVERNMENT 3 7,61 9

5, 53 2

median sales price

median sales price

change in year over year office vacancy

change in year over year office vacancy

unemployment %

unemployment %

$ 3 1 5,000 +0.4%

4. 97 %

$ 2 0 6,013 +2.9%

6. 26%

hampton roads/chesapeake bay

central virginia major industry driver

major industry driver

home sales total

home sales total

BUSI NESS 1 2,7 1 2

MILITA RY/ TO U R ISM 18, 9 0 5

median sales price

median sales price

change in year over year office vacancy

change in year over year office vacancy

unemployment %

unemployment %

$ 177,500 -0.5%

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AG RICU LT U RE

7. 10%

$ 1 9 6,0 0 0 + 0. 9 %

6.8 2%

southwest virginia

southside virginia major industry driver

major industry driver

FORT LEE MILITARY EXPANSION

NAT URAL ENERGY RESOURCES

home sales total

home sales total

1 ,595

1 , 1 13

median sales price

median sales price

change in year over year office vacancy

change in year over year office vacancy

unemployment %

unemployment %

$ 80,000 +1 . 9%

8. 2 0%

roanoke/lynchburg/blacksburg major industry driver

U N I V E R SIT Y/H IGH ER E DUC ATION home sales total

6,223

median sales price

$ 149,000

change in year over year office vacancy

+0. 2%

unemployment %

7.00%

*The health of Commercial Real Estate Statistic is based on the percentage of office vacancies for 2011.

$ 1 10,07 5 +1 . 9 %

6.73 %

THERE’S MORE TO AFFORDABLE HOUSING THAN YOU MAY THINK CAN A DENTAL ASSISTANT AFFORD TO BUY A HOUSE IN THE RICHMOND AREA?* WHAT ABOUT IN FAIRFAX COUNTY?** WHAT ABOUT ROANOKE?*** Housing Virginia’s SOURCEBOOK puts these and thousands of other housing affordability facts at your fingertips.

Housing Virginia (HV) wishes to thank the Virginia Association of Realtors® for its generous support since 2004, including our recent partnership in creating SOURCEBOOK, a web-based resource that measures the affordability of Virginia’s housing stock. SOURCEBOOK is the most up-to-date resource on housing affordability available anywhere in the state. Visit the HV website at housingvirginia.org for more information about SOURCEBOOK, and to access their extensive library of statewide news and information about housing topics, including recently-published reports like: · The Effect of Housing on the Local Economy

* A dental assistant in Richmond averages $35,660 per year compared to $55,659 needed to purchase the median home. ** In Fairfax, the same dental worker earns $39,420 compared to $100,729 needed to afford homeownership. ***In Roanoke, the same dental assistant earns $31,430 compared to $36,109 needed to afford a home.

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· Housing Countdown: Ten Facts You Need to Know about Housing in Virginia

HV provides technical assistance and financial support to coalitions working toward expanding affordable housing through Virginia. They also provide educational opportunities through symposiums and local training programs. Contact Housing Virginia today through their website if you would like to learn more or schedule a speaking, educational or training session in your area.

ARE YOU AGE-READY? Matt Thornhill Co-Founder and President, Boomer Project A little over 20 years ago the World Wide Web was launched and the real estate industry changed forever. Without a doubt, the Web has had a profound, transformative, revolutionary, permanent and pervasive impact on the industry.

Guess what? Another change is coming that will be equally as profound, transformative, revolutionary, permanent and pervasive. It’s the age shift.

Thanks to the Baby Boomer generation growing older, by 2030, one in five Virginians will be age 65 or older. That’s up from one in eight in 2000. At the same time, birth rates have remained stable or declined slightly in recent decades, so as a percentage of the population, the under 50 segment won’t increase in size anytime soon.

For the real estate industry, this coming shift means sales activity will come from all age groups. The most active may be Boomers, not younger adults “flipping” homes. Here are three trends all Realtors® should know about how Boomers will transform the real estate industry, and what to do: KNOW: Boomers will want to grow older in their current communities. They are not likely to sell their homes and relocate to Florida or Arizona. They are a diverse group, though, and every type of housing will be an option for them. Some will want to move nearer their kids, others farther away. Some want city living, others want the country life.

DO: Assume Boomer-age clients will both stay put and move out.

Connect with each and every one to identify your best prospects.

KNOW: Boomers will transform what constitutes a “singlefamily home.” Multigenerational households are already growing thanks to “boomerang” kids moving back home. But enough Boomers have not saved for retirement that a wide range of living situations are going to flourish. Boomers will move in with their adult children, or move in with other Boomer-age roommates to offset living expenses. Group homes, co-ops, shared residences, garage apartments, “granny flats” and other new models will quickly evolve to meet demand for more options in living arrangements.

DO: Determine the role you can play in helping Boomers and their families live where and how they want. The future belongs to the innovators.

KNOW: The future will include homes built to accommodate everyone at every age. Bedrooms and baths on the first floor, stepless entryways, wider hallways and varying counter heights will soon become the norm as builders and developers realize it is homes that need to adapt, not residents.

DO: Become an expert on what makes homes “livable” for all ages and life stages, because that’s what your next buyers will want.

These are only three trends of many about the coming age shift we write about in our new book, Age Ready. It is filled with more insights on what’s coming and what to do about it, helping you become Age-Ready.

The Boomer Project is a research-based think tank based in Richmond, specializing in how to market to today’s older Boomer Consumer. Co-founders Matt Thornhill and John Martin routinely speak to audiences interested in learning more about the future in Virginia when we have more older and fewer younger homeowners. Contact Dani Chonko at danielle@ boomerproject.com for more information. Buy our new book, Age Ready at amazon.com.

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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V IRG INIA HO U S ING DE V ELO PM ENT AU T HO RIT Y In communities all over Virginia, we’ve seen the difference that quality, affordable housing can make. Businesses, school systems and transportation systems all benefit when our citizens have safe, decent, affordable housing.

At VHDA, it’s our job—and our mission—to help Virginians attain quality, affordable housing.

YEARS

As of June 30, 2011, VHDA has: // Financed more than 174,500 home loans since inception, including 2,600 during FY11. // Financed more than 135,000 rental units, including 4,878 during FY11. // Helped more than 123,000 Virginians prepare for homeownership through our free homebuyer classes (both online and in classrooms around the state).

9,468 took the class during FY11.

VHDA thanks the VAR and its members for its support of our affordable housing mission over the past 40 years!

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VHDA offers a variety of programs for Virginians looking to buy or rent an affordable home. We also provide developers of quality, affordable rental housing with access to financial resources and tax incentives.

Our Programs: Homebuyer Programs Military & Veterans Programs Homeowner Programs Renter Programs Business Partner Programs

VIRGINIA HOUSING DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY 877-VHDA-123 // VHDA.COM

V I R G I N I A AS S O C IAT IO N O F R E ALTO R S ® L E A D E R S H I P T E A M

P U B L I S H E D B Y T H E VI R G I N I A AS S O C IAT IO N O F RE A LTO RS ®

President Trish Szego, CRB, CRS, Fairfax, VA

The Virginia Association of Realtors® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 Realtors® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

President-Elect Mary Dykstra, ABR, CRS, Roanoke, VA Vice-President Brad Boland, Reston, VA Treasurer John Daly, SFR, Virginia Beach, VA Immediate Past President John R. Dickinson, GRI, CCIM, Union Hall, VA Chief Executive Officer R. Scott Brunner, CAE, Glen Allen, VA

VAR thanks our Association Partners.

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of Realtors® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com VARealtor.com/HomeSales Economic Regions CENTRAL VALLEY CENTRAL VIRGINIA HAMPTON ROADS/CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTHERN VIRGINIA ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG/BLACKSBURG SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

Central Valley:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City,Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Central Virginia:

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chestereld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover,Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan,Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay:

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews,Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Northern Virginia:

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier,Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page,Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg:

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

S O UR CES 2011 Month-to-Month Virginia Home Sales // 2008-2011 Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors®

Today’s Housing: What’s Really Relevant Laura Lafayette, CEO, Richmond Association of Realtors®

+.2% Change of Home Sales // 2010 VS 2011 Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors®

Virginia Economics Chris Chmura President and Chief Economist, Chmura Economics and Analytics

Regional Changes Home Sales // 2010 VS 2011 Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Home Prices in Virginia Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Virginia Price Distribution in Home Sales // 2010 VS 2011 Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Annualized 2008-2011 // Quarter-to-Quarter Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors®

Regional Changes in Foreclosures // 2011 Quarter-to Quarter C. Theodore Koebel, Ph.D., Professor, Urban Affairs and Planning Senior Associate, Center for Housing Research, Virginia Tech Understanding Mortgage Defaults Dr. Michael J. Seiler, Director, Institute for Behavioral and Experimental Real Estate, Old Dominion University

Federal Housing Issues Lisa A. Sturtevant, P.h.D., Assistant Research Professor, George Mason University School of Public Policy, Center for Regional Analysis Positives and Negatives of Today’s Housing Market Scott Rogers, Analyst/Consultant, Virginia Association of Realtors® Home Builders Association Michael Toalson, CEO, Home Builders Association of Virginia Mortgage Rates and the 2012 Economy Andrew Kantor, Editor and Information Manager, Virginia Association of Realtors® Are You Age-Ready?

Matt Thornhill, Co-Founder and President, Boomer Project

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ®

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速

速

Thank you to our partners across Virginia, who contributed to the Pieces of Home 2011 Virginia Housing Report:

VIRGINIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 速 10231 TELEGRAPH ROAD GLEN ALLEN, VA 23059 TEL (804) 264-5033 // FAX (804) 262-0497

V I R G I N I A A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S 速

i