MARCH 24, 2014
Experts split on using reserves to defend Naira ...As external reserves falls below 18mths low BY BABAJIDE KOMOLAFE
W
ith the nation’s external reserves falling below its lowest level in eighteen months, economic experts are divided over the policy of using the reserves to defend the naira. A snap poll of foreign exchange dealers and economic experts conducted by Financial Vanguard on the likely outcome of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) holding today and tomorrow revealed divergence of opinions on the policy of using the reserves to defend the naira. The poll revealed that while foreign exchange market operators prefer that the CBN suspends the policy by allowing depreciation of the naira, other operators however prefer that the apex bank maintain the status quo. Last week, the external reserves fell further to $38.13 billion, representing the lowest level since August 2012. The decline in reserves started May last year after a peak of $48.85 billion in April. This
implies that the reserves have shed $10.72 billion between May, 2013 and last week while it has declined by $5.48 billion this year. The decline in reserves is attributable to depletion of the excess crude accounts and increased sales of dollars by the CBN in its quest to stablise the exchange rate. This year, the apex bank has sold $8.7 billion through the bi-weekly foreign exchange auction, representing 33.1 per cent of the $25.37 billion sold last year. The fear is that, if the apex bank maintained the policy of using reserves to defend the naira, the external reserves might continue to fall further. Foreign exchange dealers who participated confidentially in the poll argued that with the current levels of reserves, the focus of the MPC should change to protecting the reserves. Hence they predicted that the MPC would shift the midpoint of the official exchange rate from N155 per dollar to N160 or N165 per dollar. “No Naira should be devalued”, said a senior bank treasurer, who
spoke on condition of anonymity. He believes that the MPC would raise the official rate to N165 per dollar from N155. A senior economic analyst with one of the banks, who does not want his name mentioned, argued for depreciation of the naira. He told Vanguard, “There is a balanced outlook between the current efforts to support the naira and keep depleting the reserves or to preserve the reserves and move the midpoint to N160 per dollar plus/minus three percent. The latter will allow naira exchange rate in the interbank to oscillate to N164.8 per dollar. Interestingly, there is a resistant above N165 by the CBN, and also a resistant below N164 by the operators. Whichever is the case, the latter option will suit all parties. Although this could be seen as indirect devaluation, but it might not, if we
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171.0 2,951.00
16.86 107.20 -99.55
-3.15 -23.00
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