OPINION & ANALYSIS
FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 4, 2012
www.wbj.pl
11
Time for Poland to speak up Editorial
As
presidential elections approach in neighboring Russia it seems Poland, like most of the rest of the world, has quietly resigned itself to dealing with Vladimir Putin as head of the Russian state for the next several years. There is not much doubt about the outcome of the March 4 election and indeed, Mr Putin has never
“Poland needs to speak up for democracy, and not only when it’s convenient.” really let go of power since he was first elected president in 2000. While paying lip service to reforms, current President Dmitry Medvedev has actually strengthened Mr Putin’s hand since 2008, not least through a decree extending presidential terms from four to six years. As a result, Mr Putin could theoretically sit as president for the next 12 years, making him
ter opposition parties. But in the age of the internet, discontent can spread at breakneck speed. Poland learned this recently, when the government was forced to make an abrupt aboutface on ACTA. Moscow may learn a similar lesson soon. But it’s high time Poland remembered that it was not by picking the lesser evil that it sparked a revolution that led to the fall of the Iron Curtain. The birthplace of Solidarity should make the difficult choice of standing by those who are now courageously demanding a more democratic Russia. Some argue that Moscow has been cooperative of late. It has recognized historical wrongs inflicted on Poland, embarked on a reset of relations with Washington and worked towards increased cooperation with Europe. But this cooperation has been superficial and selfserving at best. As long as playing along with the West is seen by the Kremlin mainly in terms of keeping Mr Putin and his cronies in power, the partnership between Russia and the West will remain tenuous. There are already plenty of cracks in the Kremlin’s facade of partner-
the country’s longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin.
Cracks appear That outcome, however, is far from certain. Parts of Russian society, including entrepreneurs, intellectuals, but most of all the youth, are no longer willing to accept stability at the cost of democratic liberties. Representatives of the Russian middle class have taken to the streets by the thousands after parliamentary elections were rigged in December, filling Russian streets with the biggest protests since the fall of the Soviet Union. They are also voting with their money, since people with average incomes are thought to be largely responsible for capital flight to the tune of $38.3 billion in 2010, according to Russia’s central bank. Others are emigrating. Most Russian citizens admit they do not feel protected by the law. In Moscow, the proportion of people voicing that view has reached an alarming 73 percent. Currently, there is little they can do other than stage protests. Courts and police harass opposition figures, while state institutions refuse to regis-
ship with the West. Russia has used strong-arm tactics to reassert its regional dominance, and most recently it blocked a UN resolution supported by Europe and the US that would have urged the Syrian government to end the slaughter of its own citizens.
Tough choice But why should Poland bear the weight of standing up to Mr Putin while the rest of the West turns a blind eye? Certainly, the prospect is intimidating. Russia has shown it is more than willing to use economic means to squeeze Poland. Poland might also be reluctant after supporting the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which failed in its effort to usher in a more Western-style democracy there. So the path that the current government has chosen in its relations with Russia has its justifications. But it lacks both courage and vision. One could argue that a country for which democratic transition has been so good has a duty to support its neighbors’ democratic aspirations. But it’s also a question of strategy. If Poland wants a stronger voice on the
European and international scene, it needs to speak up for democracy, and not only when it’s convenient. The Arab Spring has shown that populations can put to shame an international community that has supported violent, corrupt regimes for the stake of stability. Poland, meanwhile, has proved it is capable of grand gestures. Foreign Minister Rados∏aw Sikorski was the first EU foreign minister to visit wartorn Libya in 2011. And in an eloquent speech last November, he implored Germany to be more decisive in its leadership role in the EU. It is high time Poland used its diplomatic skill to speak up for those in Russia who are struggling for the same democratic freedoms that Poles enjoy. Warsaw must therefore immediately show its support for those in Russia who want to follow the path that has so benefited Poland. History won’t wait for Poland to muster the courage. ● Warsaw Business Journal’s editorial board comprises editor-in-chief Andrew Kureth, co-managing editors Gareth Price and Alice Trudelle, and politics editor Remi Adekoya.
Movement toward political liberalization Jaros∏aw åwiek-Karpowicz in Russia
A
head of Russia’s presidential elections on Sunday, victory for Vladimir Putin seems a foregone conclusion. In polls conducted by state-run public opinion center VCIOM, Mr Putin receives 53 percent support and maintains a significant advantage over the other candidates, Gennady Zyuganov (11 percent), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (9 percent), Mikhail Prokhorov (6 percent) and Sergei Mironov (4 percent). If these figures hold on election day, Mr Putin’s public support will be significantly lower than in 2004, in his first reelection (71 percent), and in 2008, when his ally Dmitry Medvedev became president (70 percent). Moreover, if Mr Putin does not receive more than 50 percent, a second round
of voting will be held – something that hasn’t happened since 1996. Indeed, Mr Putin’s high poll numbers in the run-up to Sunday’s elections do not mean he enjoys stable support among the majority of Russians. After parliamentary elections on December 4, 2011, Russia’s largest cities saw massive anti-Kremlin protests after several examples of voter fraud were revealed. The demonstrations, unprecedented in post-Soviet Russia, mainly involved young people disenchanted with Mr Putin’s 12 years in power, during which Russia has become (even more) corrupt and quasi-authoritarian. Russia’s youth feel cheated by Dmitry Medvedev, who promised that he would use his presidency to bring
Our thanks to Judith and Paul The editorial board of Warsaw Business Journal would like to take this opportunity to thank Judith Gliniecki of Wierzbowski Eversheds and Paul Fogo of Miller Canfield, W. Babicki, A. Che∏chowski & Partners for all of their work over the years in writing the Legal Eye column. The column, which is being discontinued in its weekly print format, will be replaced by a blog on WBJ.pl.
modernization to Russia. Mr Medvedev finally acquiesced to Mr Putin’s wishes and decided not to run again for president. Russians saw this announcement as a retreat from reform initiatives in order to safeguard the interests of the ruling elite.
The Kremlin seems unsure of how to handle the possibility of fraud during Sunday’s elections. It may fear a repeat of what happened after the parliamentary elections, when vote-rigging provoked the above-mentioned wave of demonstrations. However,
Putin’s biggest challenge Although the protests are by no means representative of all of Russian society, the increasing number of disgruntled citizens represents the most significant challenge to the current leadership. So far the government has adopted a two-pronged strategy, which most likely will continue after the presidential election. On the one hand, the Kremlin is conducting a dialogue with the opposition: On February 20, President Medvedev invited opposition politicians to his residence in Gorki and promised to initiate liberalization of the political system. On the other hand, the Kremlin is attempting to discredit the organizers of the anti-Putin protests and to interfere with the functioning of some independent newspapers, such as Novaya Gazeta, and radio stations, such as Ekho Moskvy.
“Without controlling the voting process, Mr Putin may not get over 50 percent of the votes” without administrative control over the voting process Mr Putin may not receive more than 50 percent of vote. That would force a second round of voting, which would certainly strengthen the opposition.
Liberalize the system Mr Putin’s expected victory in the first or the second round of presidential elections is unlikely to limit Russians’ political activity, especially among the youth, who have been very passive over the past decade. But regardless of whether the protests continue after the
elections or not, a rising civic consciousness usually results in more critical and active behavior towards policies adopted by the authorities. For the Russian political and business elite this new situation requires solutions that will address society’s growing expectations. The liberalization of the political system, which has become an important expectation of the Russian protesters, could stabilize the political situation in the country and support its economic development. For this reason, it is positive both for Russian society and its elite. Poland and other EU countries should look to convince Russia’s leadership to open the country’s political system. This includes putting pressure on Vladimir Putin and others in power in Russia to honor commitments they made during the election campaign to liberalize the country’s politics. ● Jaros∏aw åwiek-Karpowicz is Eastern and South Eastern Europe Program Coordinator at the Polish Institue of International Affairs (PISM). pism.pl
Editorials are the opinions of WBJ’s editorial board. Other opinions are those of the authors alone. Comments, opinions and letters should be sent to editor@wbj.pl. Please include a name and contact information and clearly indicate if they are to be considered for publication.
PUBLISHER VALKEA MEDIA SA
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF ANDREW KURETH (AKURETH@WBJ.PL)
CO-MANAGING EDITOR
REAL ESTATE EDITOR
CONTRIBUTORS
PRODUCTION MANAGER
GARETH PRICE (GPRICE@WBJ.PL)
ADAM ZDRODOWSKI (AZDRODOWSKI@WBJ.PL)
E. BLAKE BERRY EWA BONIECKA MARK ORDON LIAM NOLAN
PIOTR WYSKOK
CO-MANAGING EDITOR
ALICE TRUDELLE (ATRUDELLE@WBJ.PL)
COPY EDITORS
POLITICS EDITOR
REMI ADEKOYA (RADEKOYA@WBJ.PL)
GRAPHIC DESIGNER
ADAM NARCZEWSKI ANDREW NAWROCKI
MARTA CZESZEJKO-SOCHACKA (MCZESZEJKO-SOCHACKAKA@WBJ.PL)
AGNIESZKA BREJWO
KAROL KOSIOREK (KKOSIOREK@WBJ.PL)
(ABREJWO@WBJ.PL)
PR & MARKETING SPECIALIST
MAGDALENA KARPI¡SKA (MKARPINSKA@WBJ.PL)
NATALIA ROGACZEWSKA (NROGACZEWSKA@WBJ.PL) SUBSCRIPTIONS MANAGER
COLUMNISTS
INTERN IZABELA DEPCZYK
MARKETING &SALES
MARKETING &SALES DIRECTOR
¸UKASZ MAZUREK
DAVID INGHAM ELLA PA¸KA
MANAGING DIRECTOR MONIKA STAWICKA
CARTOONS
PIOTR WYSKOK
AGNIESZKA KUCZY¡SKA (AKUCZYNSKA@WBJ.PL)
AGNIESZKA MICHALIK (AMICHALIK@VALKEA.COM)
PRINT & DISTRIBUTION COORDINATOR
KRZYSZTOF WILI¡SKI (DYSTRYBUCJA@VALKEA.COM)
BOOK OF LISTS SPECIALIST
JOANNA RASZKA (JRASZKA@VALKEA.COM)