Issue 03, Volume 123
Friday, June 7, 2013
UT study describes improving state economy Staff Report Falling unemployment rates, an increase in vehicle sales, and a longawaited rebound in the residential housing market are all indications that the national and state economies are making a comeback. Despite sequestration of federal spending and a payroll tax increase that have slowed consumer spending, the economy is poised for strong growth in both 2014 and 2015, according to the spring 2013 Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook released today. The study, prepared by UT’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), predicts the trajectory of the state and national economies by examining many economic and fiscal factors and trends. “The economy has finally found a firm footing,” said Matt Murray, CBER associate director and the report’s author. “This will be the third year of payroll employment growth and a falling unemployment rate following the Great Recession.” The national unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent in first quarter of the year and is expected to average 7.6 percent this year, compared to 7.8 percent in 2012. It is predicted to fall to 7.2 percent in 2014. Additionally, payroll employment for the nation is projected to be up 1.5 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year, according to the report. “These modest employment gains will help support modest reductions in the unemployment rate,” Murray said. Vehicle sales are inching closer to prerecession levels, according to the report. They bottomed out at 10.4 million vehicle sales in 2009 but are rebounding. Sales are expected to total 15.3 million vehicles this year and 15.7 million next year. By 2016, sales will likely be restored to the levels that prevailed in 2006. The residential housing market is showing major improvement in housing prices and in the sale of existing and new homes, according to the report. This comes after a long string of losses between 2006 and 2011. The nation’s manufacturing sector is expected to continue to see job gains as well. Tennessee Economy Tennessee’s economy improved in recent quarters, notably in its unemployment rate. The state unemployment rate is projected to average 7.8 percent this year compared to 8.0 percent last year. It is expected to fall to 7.5 percent in 2014, according to the report. The state outperformed the United States in many measures. Last year, Tennessee’s personal income, nonfarm employment, and manufacturing employment all grew more strongly than the nation’s, while the state’s annual unemployment rate rested below the national unemployment rate, according to the report. The first quarter of 2013 showed Tennessee performing better than most states. An index of economic momentum released by State Policy Reports placed Tennessee in the twelfth position across all states for first quarter economic performance. This index is a composite that includes personal income growth, employment growth, and population growth. Tennessee’s manufacturing sector employment growth in the first quarter was more than twice as large as the growth recorded for the nation. The state economy will see a modest slowdown in growth into the third quarter of the year. Growth will accelerate as the year comes to a close, setting the stage for sustained economic expansion through 2015.
McCord Pagan • The Daily Beacon
Xylina Marshal and Joseph Perry perform in the Orientation Leaders’ skit June 6, 2013.
Orientation welcomes class of 2017 McCord Pagan
Staff Writer Though exhausting, freshman orientation season is off to a positive start thanks to its orientation leaders and increased focus on technology. This summer, students from all over the country are visiting UT for what may be their first real taste of the college experience. Throughout June and July, more than 4,300 new Vols will come through in 16, two-day sessions. Averaging about 270 students per session, the orientation leaders stay busy during their 18-hour days. Most students have enjoyed the seemingly unending energy of the orientation leaders, but at least one student grumbled about the 7:30 a.m. start. “It was way too early, I wish they had pushed it back about an hour,” incoming freshman and business analytics major Bob Pierson said. The early wake-up call is neces-
sary for the students to complete their heavily scheduled day. Students are introduced to many of the services and student organizations offered on campus based on their own designated interests. “I was surprised at all the free services on campus, like the tutoring center and the writing lab,” Pierson said, adding that the services may come in handy. “English is definitely not my strength.” Laura Lauder, another incoming freshman, said she considered the program good preparation for the real college experience approaching in August. She said she would have liked more time to get ready for her first day. “Meeting with my advisor was the most helpful, but I wish we were allowed time to go to a computer lab to build our schedule as well,” she said. Lauder’s sentiment reflects Paige Philips’ own assessment of orientation. As the associate director of New Student and Family Programming,
Philips said the program’s greatest asset lies in the assimilation of incoming freshman into the campus community. “I think the most beneficial thing about orientation is that… you can just get a really good snapshot of the university in one location and in one time,” Phillips said. “You get to take care of any business you might have, you get to meet other incoming students, other upper class students… it’s just a really big picture of the university.” Philips added that although orientation is not required for freshman, it is strongly recommended for a variety of reasons, and those who attend but skip sessions only hurt themselves. “What I like to say is that orientation is like your first class, so when I see someone who has not been attending sessions, I take them aside and ask if this is how they are going to approach their classes,” she said. This year, orientation has integrated more technology into the program.
The Associated Press
R.J. Vogt • The Daily Beacon
College students faced increasing uncertainty about the cost of new student loans after senators failed Thursday to advance partisan proposals to keep interest rates from doubling on July 1. Dueling measures in the Senate would have kept interest rates on some student loans from moving from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent, although separate Republican and Democratic proposals each failed to win 60 votes needed on procedural votes. The failure means that unless lawmakers can find a rare bipartisan agreement, students are likely to face higher rates on new subsidized Stafford student loans this fall but enjoy greater certainty on the interest they will be expected to pay during the life of their loans. “I cannot understand why we’re having a problem with this,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters after the vote. The top Republican on the Senate education panel seemed to share that frustration. “If we can’t agree on this, we can’t agree on anything,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander. “This is a manufactured crisis.” The failure comes just three
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See ORIENTATION on Page 2
Dueling Congress hopes to lower student loan rates
Mary Ann Murphy, sophomore orientation leader, is one of many students who could be affected by doubling interest rates.
See ECONOMY on Page 2
Dante Arnwine, an orientation leader and rising junior in political science and public administration, said the integration has been highly beneficial. “A big difference this year is that we have digitized much of the process,” he said. “This year we’re using electronic check-in, so that makes it a whole lot easier.” Orientation leader Austin Shelton, rising junior in sports management, agreed on the increased technology and its impact on the programming. “I feel like we are using technology to make it a more personal situation,” he said. “We’re using Twitter a lot more this year than we were, and #utk17 was trending nationally, so that was a pretty big deal… That’s a big step for the future of Orientation for us and other programs.” For Shelton, the personal touch that Twitter affords corresponds well
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weeks before interest rates increase on federally subsidized Stafford loans return to 2008 levels. For students who max out their student loans every year, the rate shift would mean this year’s loans will cost more than $1,000 than last. “Congress must act immediately to stop the imminent doubling of interest rates on student loans,” the White House said in a statement as President Barack Obama was on his way to North Carolina to visit a school. Democrats in the Senate unsuccessful sought a two-year extension of the current rates while lawmakers write a comprehensive overhaul of the student loan process. Republicans, meanwhile, wanted to link interest rates to financial markets. Under Senate Republicans’ plan, interest rates would be based on the 10-year Treasury note and, once the rates were set each year, remain there until the loans were paid off. The GOP parameters were not that different from President Barack Obama’s budget proposal, which also included interest rates linked to markets, or a version House Republicans have passed through their chamber. See LOANS on Page 2
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