Manhattan Market Compass - Q3 2014 Report

Q3 2014

Manhattan Market Compass

LIVING. POWERED BY URBAN COMPASS.

Q3 2014

At Urban Compass, we understand the real value of data is the intelligence gleaned from it. We’ve created our inaugural Manhattan Market Compass report to do just that: arm our agents, clients and the industry with the insights they need to make smarter decisions.

This report examines Manhattan’s residential real estate market across six metrics - Price (pp. 3-4), Price per Square Foot (p. 5), Closings (pp. 6-7), Inventory (pp. 8-9), Contracts (pp. 10-11) and Days on Market (pp. 12-13) - using recorded sales data and sales listing data from hundreds of brokerages. Our analysis is framed by these metrics, as we believe such a lens allows our readers to derive the best and most useful information about the market.

We’ve also shared with you a sneak peek into what Urban Compass Research has been busy working on - Neighborhood Affinity (p.

14), Days on Market Distribution (p. 15), and Contracts by Submarket Share (p. 16). These analyses enable us to provide our agents, clients and the industry with the creative insight needed to stay ahead of the curve.

This quarter, the Manhattan market demonstrated considerable strength, showing signs we are now entering a more stable and less frenzied, frothy market.

Prices are rising steadily, with a 3% increase over the past year. Condo performance was particularly strong this quarter, with an 11% increase year-over-year. Overall, price has steadily returned to pre-recession levels. PPSF has increased accordingly over the past year (10%), with submarkets like Upper Manhattan doing particularly well.

While the volume of transactions dipped from last year, the market saw a total value of $6 billion in condo and co-op sales this quarter. This marks the highest value closed since the $7.5B peak in the second quarter of 2008.

Inventory has gone up slightly since last year, with more properties above $1M appearing on the market. There are 15% more active condos than last year, whereas co-op inventory decreased by 3%.

There were 7% fewer contracts signed than last year, though the Upper West Side and Upper Manhattan submarkets experienced an increase in signed contracts. Condo contracts remain level, whereas co-op contracts declined by 12%.

Days on market remains unchanged since last year, with a median time on market of 50 days. Condos are spending 9% more time on the market than last year, though condos are still spending a shorter time on market than co-ops (49 days in comparison to 51 days). Co-ops are spending 6% fewer days on market than last year.

We expect a strong end to 2014 given the activity of the past quarter. As we approach the last quarter of 2014, what remains to be seen are the following: how saturated is the market with new development luxury product? Is demand for such product sustainable?

Are co-ops a better buy given the two record co-op closings this quarter? Considering condos make up only 5% of the entire housing stock in Manhattan and are becoming increasingly expensive and exclusive, perhaps co-ops presenting a better value.

We’re Urban Compass: We do real estate differently. Please contact our agents if you have any questions related to this report, or if we may be of further assistance. A digital copy of this report may be viewed at www.urbancompass.com/research.

Best, Robert & Sofia

Robert Reffkin Founder & CEO

Sofia Song Head of Research & External Affairs

Q3 2014

Price MANHATTAN PRICES RISE STEADILY. Overall median closing price in Manhattan rose 3% over the past year, and 2% from the preceding quarter. The Downtown market had the largest gains, with a 21% increase since last year, while prices in the Midtown East market dropped by 7%.

CONDO PERFORMANCE STRONG. Manhattan condos, both resale and new development closings, increased by 11% since last year. The Midtown East and Upper East Side markets were the only markets to not experience gains in condo resale price. Midtown West and Upper West Side experienced the largest gains, each with a 24% increase since last year.

CO-OPS REMAIN STABLE. Co-op median prices remained stable across the majority of markets with the exception of Upper Manhattan where median resale price fell by 18%. Midtown East co-ops had the most significant price gains--5% since last year.

MEDIAN PRICE v. MEDIAN PPSF Median price and median PPSF based upon recorded Manhattan condo closings from Q1 2008 to Q3 2014.

PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

PPSF

MEDIAN CONDO PPSF

$1,000,000 $950,000 $900,000 $850,000 $800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000

Source: Urban Compass Research

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

$1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800

2014

Manhattan median sales price hit its lowest point in 2009, when it bottomed out at $710,000. Prices have steadily returned to pre-recession levels with an average year-over-year increase of 1.3%. This quarter’s median price is $910,000, an increase of 28% from Q2 2009.

Alternatively, PPSF achieved a higher growth trajectory with an average year-over-year increase of 1.5% during same time period, and 0.9% from the same time one year ago. Currently, PPSF for Q3 2014 is $1,395--13% higher than the height of the market in 2008, and over 38% higher compared to PPSF from the market’s low point in 2009.

SUMMARY

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

$910,000

$880,000

3%

$895,000

2%

MIDTOWN EAST

$740,000

$795,000

-7%

$715,000

3%

MIDTOWN WEST

$937,000

$912,500

3%

$950,000

-1%

DOWNTOWN

$1,200,000

$990,000

21%

$1,056,336

14%

UPPER EAST SIDE

$995,000

$960,000

4%

$935,000

6%

UPPER WEST SIDE

$1,050,000

$947,500

11%

$1,050,000

0%

UPPER MANHATTAN

$545,000

$490,000

11%

$500,000

9%

3

Q3 2014

Price MEDIAN PRICE BY PROPERTY TYPE Median closing prices for the marketplace from Q1 2008 to Q3 2014.

PRICE

OVERALL

CONDO

CO-OP

$1,500,000 Source: Urban Compass Research

$1,300,000

$1,100,000

$900,000

$700,000

$500,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Median prices for the marketplace have seen slower growth patterns since Q3 2013, with typical seasonality observed in the condo market.

Throughout 2014, condo price outpaced co-op price growth with an average rate of 4.3%.

CONDOS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

$1,325,000

$1,199,000

11%

$1,265,000

5%

MIDTOWN EAST

$1,070,000

$1,215,000

-12%

$1,225,000

-13%

MIDTOWN WEST

$1,225,000

$990,000

24%

$1,220,000

0%

DOWNTOWN

$1,721,000

$1,450,000

19%

$1,475,000

17%

Q/Q CHG (%)

UPPER EAST SIDE

$1,445,000

$1,475,000

-2%

$1,375,000

5%

UPPER WEST SIDE

$1,427,000

$1,150,000

24%

$1,299,000

10%

UPPER MANHATTAN

$705,000

$590,000

19%

$575,000

23% Q/Q CHG (%)

CO-OPS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

$707,000

$715,000

-1%

$690,000

2%

MIDTOWN EAST

$615,000

$586,000

5%

$565,000

9%

MIDTOWN WEST

$655,000

$725,000

-10%

$595,000

10%

DOWNTOWN

$780,000

$750,000

4%

$715,000

9%

UPPER EAST SIDE

$840,100

$870,000

-3%

$795,000

6%

UPPER WEST SIDE

$852,500

$841,000

1%

$835,000

2%

UPPER MANHATTAN

$340,000

$416,000

-18%

$375,000

-9%

4

Q3 2014

Price per Square Foot PPSF JUMPS 10% YEAR-OVER-YEAR. Manhattan’s median condo price per square foot (PPSF), currently $1,395, jumped 10% from last year, but remained relatively stable since last quarter, with a small 1% increase. The median PPSF increased in all markets over the past year, with the Downtown and Upper West Side markets experiencing the largest gains, each at 15%. PPSF in Upper Manhattan increased dramatically from last quarter, 21%, resulting in a median PPSF of $760 this quarter.

Note: Median PPSF is calculated for condos only. Co-ops were excluded due to the inconsistency of square footage data.

MEDIAN CONDO PPSF BY SUBMARKET Median condo PPSF by Manhattan submarket from Q1 2008 to Q3 2014.

PPSF

$1,600

MANHATTAN MIDTOWN EAST

$1,400

MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN

$1,200

UPPER EAST SIDE UPPER WEST SIDE

$1,000

UPPER MANHATTAN

$800 $600 Source: Urban Compass Research

$400 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Marketplace PPSF levels have steadily rebounded since Q2 2009, when median PPSF was $1,008/sf. Median PPSF has increased 13% since Q2 2008, when it peaked at $1,231/sf. The highest PPSF can now be found in the Downtown Market at $1,588/sf.

SUMMARY

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

$1,395

$1,273

10%

$1,382

1%

MIDTOWN EAST

$1,285

$1,231

4%

$1,327

-3%

MIDTOWN WEST

$1,453

$1,311

11%

$1,523

-5%

DOWNTOWN

$1,588

$1,383

15%

$1,453

9%

UPPER EAST SIDE

$1,338

$1,277

5%

$1,302

3%

UPPER WEST SIDE

$1,441

$1,250

15%

$1,482

-3%

UPPER MANHATTAN

$760

$681

11%

$626

21%

5

Q3 2014

Closings MANHATTAN CLOSINGS SLOW DOWN BY 10%. The total volume of transactions in Manhattan, an estimated 3,319 this quarter, decreased by 10% since last year, but increased by 16% since last quarter. Downtown had the most closings at 929, a 9% decrease from last year.

CONDO CLOSINGS DECLINE BY 13%. Volume of condo closings in Manhattan declined by 13% year-over-year, totaling 1,260 closings. The Upper West Side experienced the largest decline in condo closings, 29%, with 240 closings this quarter, compared to 337 closings last year. Upper Manhattan, Downtown and the Upper East Side submarkets had the smallest decreases in closings activity.

CO-OP CLOSINGS DECREASE BY 8%. Co-ops fared similarly to condos with total volume of closings decreasing by 8% compared to a year ago. The Midtown West submarket had a 36% increase in closings since last year and Midtown East also experienced an increase of 4% from the preceding year. Both Downtown and Upper West Side submarkets declined 13% from a year ago.

Note: Due to the lag in the recording of sales after closing, Q3 2014 numbers are estimated and will be updated in our next quarterly report.

CONDO v. CO-OP CLOSINGS Manhattan closings broken down by condos and co-ops from Q1 2008 to Q3 2014.

CLOSINGS

CONDO

3,000

CO-OP

Source: Urban Compass Research

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

After the market collapse in Q4 2008, the majority of closings shifted from condos to co-ops. The difference became particularly dramatic in Q3 2010 as the market began to recover. This shift was most apparent in Q4 2012 with 941 more co-op closings than condos. Q3 2014 has seen a return to these high levels with 799 more co-op closings than condos.

SUMMARY

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

3,319

3,694

-10%

2,862

16%

MIDTOWN EAST

525

542

-3%

449

17%

MIDTOWN WEST

203

210

-4%

163

25%

DOWNTOWN

929

1,025

-9%

922

1%

UPPER EAST SIDE

742

819

-9%

603

23%

UPPER WEST SIDE

648

807

-20%

496

31%

UPPER MANHATTAN

272

290

-6%

229

19%

6

Q3 2014

Closings CLOSINGS v. TRANSACTION DOLLAR VOLUME The total number of Manhattan closings and total dollar volume of transactions from Q1 2008 to Q3 2014.

CLOSINGS

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

CLOSINGS

BILLIONS ($)

VOLUME ($)

$8B $7B $6B $5B $4B $3B $2B $1B $0

Source: Urban Compass Research

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

The market has seen a total value of $6.0B in condo and co-op sales in Q3 2014, the highest value closed since the $7.5B peak in Q2 2008.

Quarter-over-quarter growth has slowed to a rate of 0.6% from Q2 2014.

CONDO & CO-OP CLOSINGS BY SUBMARKET

20%

Condo and co-op closings broken down by submarket for Q3 2014.

Condos and co-ops had similar share compositions of closings for all submarkets, with the exception of Upper East Side and Downtown.

Downtown had the largest proportion of condo closings at 36%.

Alternatively, the Upper East Side market made up the bulk of co-op closings.

CONDOS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

MANHATTAN

1,260

MIDTOWN EAST

173

7% 16%

20% 36%

CONDO

9%

24%

CO-OP

16% 9% 12%

27%

4%

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

1,450

-13%

1,225

3%

203

-15%

155

11%

MIDTOWN WEST

123

151

-19%

98

26%

DOWNTOWN

445

466

-5%

517

-14% 24%

UPPER EAST SIDE

189

198

-5%

153

UPPER WEST SIDE

240

337

-29%

181

32%

UPPER MANHATTAN

90

94

-4%

121

-25% Q/Q CHG (%)

CO-OPS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

2,059

2,244

-8%

1,637

26%

MIDTOWN EAST

352

339

4%

294

20% 23%

MIDTOWN WEST

80

59

36%

65

DOWNTOWN

484

559

-13%

405

19%

UPPER EAST SIDE

552

621

-11%

450

23%

UPPER WEST SIDE

408

470

-13%

315

29%

UPPER MANHATTAN

183

196

-7%

108

69%

7

Q3 2014

Inventory OVERALL INVENTORY LEVELS RISE 5%. Manhattan inventory--the number of unique properties actively on the market at any point in the quarter--increased by 5% over the past year. All Manhattan submarkets, except for Midtown East, experienced an increase in inventory, with the most significant gains in Upper Manhattan and Midtown West markets, at 20% and 16% respectively.

CONDO INVENTORY INCREASES BY 15%. There are currently 15% more condo properties on the market in Manhattan than a year ago. Condo product increased by double-digit percentages in each market except Midtown East, which experienced a 3% loss. Midtown West experienced the greatest gains, with a 27% increase in inventory.

3% FEWER CO-OPS AVAILABLE. Co-op inventory in Manhattan declined by 3% since last year. The Upper West Side and Upper Manhattan were the only markets to experience gains in co-op inventory, with the Upper Manhattan market increasing by 20%.

INVENTORY v. CONDO TO CO-OP SHARE DIFFERENCE Condo and co-op inventory, and the share difference between them. Values above zero indicate greater condo inventory. Values below zero indicate greater co-op inventory.

INVENTORY

7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

CONDO

CO-OP

SHARE DIFFERENCE

SHARE DIFFERENCE

Source: Urban Compass Research

1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-1,500

2014

In Q1 2008, the Manhattan market had 1,391 more condo properties than co-ops on the market. Since then, condo inventory declined until Q2 2012, when there were 1,289 fewer condo properties on the market than co-ops. As new condo product entered the market, the difference in the number of condo and co-op properties diminished, while in Q3 2014, there were 299 fewer condo properties than co-ops.

SUMMARY

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

7,465

7,119

5%

7,847

-5%

MIDTOWN EAST

1,288

1,398

-8%

1,398

-8%

MIDTOWN WEST

499

432

16%

533

-6%

DOWNTOWN

2,182

2,013

8%

2,194

-1%

UPPER EAST SIDE

1,757

1,717

2%

1,895

-7%

UPPER WEST SIDE

1,157

1,072

8%

1,301

-11%

UPPER MANHATTAN

588

488

20%

529

11%

8

Q3 2014

Inventory The composition of Manhattan inventory by price category and bedroom size in Q3 2014.

Q3 2014 v. Q3 2013 INVENTORY BY PRICE BUCKET

Q3 2014 INVENTORY BREAKDOWN BY PRICE CATEGORY

INVENTORY

6%

9%

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

<$500K

15%

$500K - 1M $1M - 3M

10% Q3 2014

$3M - 5M

26%

$5M - 10M $10M+

33%

Source: Urban Compass Research

15%

2BR

33% 28%

Source: Urban Compass Research

-24% +21%

+13%

+41% <$500K $500K - 1M $1M - 3M

$3M - 5M $5M - 10M

INVENTORY

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

1BR

Q3 2014

-14%

$10M+

Q3 2014 v. Q3 2013 INVENTORY BY BEDROOM TYPE

STUDIO

14%

2013 Q3

While inventory priced below $1M diminished, inventory above $1M grew. The majority of properties are within the $1M-3M range.

Q3 2014 INVENTORY BREAKDOWN BY BEDROOM TYPE

10%

2014 Q3

+1%

3BR 4BR+ Source: Urban Compass Research

2014 Q3

-10%

2013 Q3

Source: Urban Compass Research

0% -6%

-3%

STUDIO

1BR

2BR

+19%

3BR

4BR+

The bulk of inventory was 1BRs. However, there has been an increase in the number of 4BR+ listings in Q3 2014.

CONDOS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

3,583

3,116

15%

3,625

-1%

MIDTOWN EAST

487

501

-3%

515

-5% -2%

Q/Q CHG (%)

MIDTOWN WEST

364

287

27%

373

DOWNTOWN

1,391

1,192

17%

1,336

4%

UPPER EAST SIDE

572

470

22%

607

-6%

UPPER WEST SIDE

467

413

13%

512

-9%

UPPER MANHATTAN

308

254

21%

285

8% Q/Q CHG (%)

CO-OPS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

3,882

4,003

-3%

4,222

-8%

MIDTOWN EAST

801

897

-11%

883

-9%

MIDTOWN WEST

135

145

-7%

160

-16%

DOWNTOWN

791

821

-4%

858

-8%

UPPER EAST SIDE

1,185

1,247

-5%

1,288

-8%

UPPER WEST SIDE

690

659

5%

789

-13%

UPPER MANHATTAN

280

234

20%

244

15%

9

Q3 2014

Contracts 7% FEWER CONTRACTS. The volume of signed contracts in Manhattan, a total of 2,859, decreased by 7% over the past year. The Upper West Side and Upper Manhattan markets were the only markets to experience gains, with an increase of 27% and 15%, respectively. In contrast, the number of contracts in the Midtown East and Upper East Side markets decreased significantly, with each dropping by 19%.

CONDO CONTRACTS REMAIN LEVEL. Condo contracts remained constant over the year, despite declines in all submarkets except the Upper West Side. Condos on the Upper West Side had a dramatic 86% increase, driven by the 143 contracts signed at Extellâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s One Riverside Park.

12% FEWER CO-OP CONTRACTS. Co-ops in Manhattan decreased 12% over the past year. Upper East Side co-ops experienced the greatest loss, with a 20% decrease in signed contracts. Upper Manhattan was the only market to see an increase in co-op signings at 14%.

CONTRACTS BREAKDOWN The composition of contracts by submarket for Q3 2014.

SUBMARKET

CONTRACT TOTALS

% OF TOTAL CONTRACTS

MEDIAN CONTRACT PRICE

MEDIAN CONTRACT PPSF

MEDIAN CONTRACT DAYS ON MARKET

50

MANHATTAN

2,859

100%

$1,095,000

$1,344

MIDTOWN EAST

426

15%

$750,000

$1,119

64

MIDTOWN WEST

148

5%

$1,085,000

$1,524

58

DOWNTOWN

821

29%

$1,450,000

$1,609

43

UPPER EAST SIDE

567

20%

$1,140,000

$1,124

59

UPPER WEST SIDE

628

22%

$1,395,000

$1,525

48

UPPER MANHATTAN

271

10%

$495,000

$647

49

CONTRACTS BY PRICE CATEGORY The breakdown of contracts by price category for Q3 2014.

SUBMARKETS

$500K - 1M

<$500K

$1M - 3M

$3M - 5M

$5M - 10M

$10M+ Source: Urban Compass Research

MANHATTAN

29%

18%

MIDTOWN EAST

28%

MIDTOWN WEST UPPER EAST SIDE

42%

11%

11% 37%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

5% 3%

0%

9%

12% 34%

52%

2%

9%

42%

28%

UPPER MANHATTAN

6%

10% 2% 1%

42%

26% 18%

UPPER WEST SIDE

28%

33%

9%

9%

35%

12%

DOWNTOWN

36%

70%

7%

1%

5%

2%

13% 80%

90%

3%

1% 100%

The majority of all contracts signed in Q3 2014 were within the $1M-3M range. The Midtown West, Downtown and Upper West Side markets each have 42% of contract shares within that range. However, Upper Manhattan saw 52% of its contracts occur on properties less than $500K.

10

Q3 2014

Contracts CONTRACTS v. MEDIAN CONDO PPSF Total number of contracts and the median contracted PPSF from Q1 2008 to Q3 2014.

CONTRACTS

CONTRACTS

PPSF

MEDIAN CONDO PPSF

5,000

Source: Urban Compass Research

4,500

$1,450 $1,350

4,000

$1,250

3,500

$1,150

3,000 2,500

$1,050

2,000

$950

1,500

$850

1,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

$750

2014

Despite the seasonality of contract volume, median PPSF has risen consistently since its low point in Q4 2009.

SUMMARY

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

2,859

3.070

-7%

3,385

-16%

MIDTOWN EAST

426

524

-19%

549

-22%

Q/Q CHG (%)

MIDTOWN WEST

148

171

-13%

193

-23%

DOWNTOWN

821

943

-13%

1,022

-20% -24%

UPPER EAST SIDE

567

702

-19%

749

UPPER WEST SIDE

628

496

27%

611

3%

UPPER MANHATTAN

271

236

15%

262

3%

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

CONDOS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

MANHATTAN

1,345

1,341

0%

1,381

-3%

MIDTOWN EAST

140

190

-26%

175

-20% -17%

MIDTOWN WEST

106

120

-12%

128

DOWNTOWN

479

542

-12%

519

-8%

UPPER EAST SIDE

162

197

-18%

205

-21%

UPPER WEST SIDE

318

171

86%

214

49%

UPPER MANHATTAN

142

123

15%

141

1% Q/Q CHG (%)

CO-OPS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

MANHATTAN

1,514

1,729

-12%

2,004

-24%

MIDTOWN EAST

286

334

-14%

374

-24% -35%

MIDTOWN WEST

42

51

-18%

65

DOWNTOWN

342

401

-15%

503

-32%

UPPER EAST SIDE

405

505

-20%

544

-26%

UPPER WEST SIDE

310

325

-5%

397

-22%

UPPER MANHATTAN

129

113

14%

121

7%

11

Q3 2014

Days on Market DAYS ON MARKET REMAIN LEVEL. Year-over-year, median days on market for contracted Manhattan condo and co-op resales has stayed at 50 days. Midtown East properties spent the longest time on the market with a median of 64 days this quarter, a 10% increase from last year. Midtown West properties had the largest increase in days on market, 23% since last year, with a median of 58 days on the market. This quarter, Downtown saw the shortest median days on market at 43 days, a 2% decrease from a year ago. Upper Manhattan had the largest decrease in median days on the market, 11% fewer days than last year.

CONDOS SPEND 9% LONGER ON MARKET. While condos had a slightly shorter time on the market than coops—49 days compared to 51 days—condos spent 9% longer on the market than last year, and 20% longer than last quarter. Midtown East condos spent the longest time on the market, with 67 days--56% jump from a year ago, and a 68% jump from last quarter.

CO-OPS SPEND 6% FEWER DAYS ON MARKET. Co-ops spent a median of 51 days on the market, a 6% decrease from a year ago. Midtown West co-ops spent 53% more time on market at 75 days.

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET v. CONTRACTS

Total number of Manhattan contracts and the median number of days contracts spent on the market.

CONTRACTS

CONTRACTS

DAYS

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

4,500

Source: Urban Compass Research

4,000

200 180 160

3,500

140

3,000

120

2,500

100

2,000

80

1,500

60

1,000

40

500

20

0

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Beginning in 2012, there was a resurgence in consumer confidence as indicated by decreased days on market and increased contracts signed.

SUMMARY

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

50

50

0%

40

25%

MIDTOWN EAST

64

58

10%

46

39%

MIDTOWN WEST

58

47

23%

35

66%

DOWNTOWN

43

44

-2%

39

10%

UPPER EAST SIDE

59

56

5%

45

31%

UPPER WEST SIDE

48

46

4%

35

37%

UPPER MANHATTAN

49

55

-11%

41

20%

12

Q3 2014

Days on Market DAYS ON MARKET BREAKDOWN The detailed breakdown of days on market trends for contracted listings by price category, bedroom size and submarket in Q3 2014.

PRICE CATEGORY

<$500K $500K - 1M $1M - 3M $3M - 5M $5M - 10M $10M+

BEDROOM SIZE

STUDIO 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR+

SUBMARKET

<30 DAYS

MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN UPPER EAST SIDE UPPER WEST SIDE UPPER MANHATTAN

30-59 DAYS

60-119 DAYS

22%

120-179 DAYS

180+ DAYS

30%

28%

32%

9%

30%

30%

22%

29%

24%

26%

16%

17%

15%

26%

7%

30%

27%

9%

32%

28%

22%

26%

27% 16%

23%

9% 26%

32%

21%

26%

27%

32%

27%

28%

14% 11%

31%

24%

15% 26%

30%

30%

10% 9%

8%

11%

11%

25%

29%

10%

12%

24%

24%

23%

9%

8%

25% 15%

10%

8%

28%

22%

19%

13%

10%

29%

30%

8% 17%

25%

30%

25%

10%

8%

28%

18%

23%

11% 7%

8%

24%

9%

6%

13%

Source: Urban Compass Research

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

In Q3 2014, 62% of contracts priced between $500K-$1M were on the market for fewer than 60 days. Similarly, 62% of 1BRs went into contract within 60 days. Downtown had 63% of its listings enter into contract within 60 days.

CONDOS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

49

45

9%

41

20%

MIDTOWN EAST

67

43

56%

40

68%

MIDTOWN WEST

49

45

9%

35

40%

DOWNTOWN

48

43

12%

44

9%

UPPER EAST SIDE

59

54

9%

52

13%

UPPER WEST SIDE

48

46

4%

33

45%

UPPER MANHATTAN

45

48

-6%

39

15%

CO-OPS

Q3 2014

Q3 2013

Y/Y CHG (%)

Q2 2014

Q/Q CHG (%)

MANHATTAN

51

54

-6%

39

31%

MIDTOWN EAST

64

67

-4%

46

39%

MIDTOWN WEST

75

49

53%

31

142%

DOWNTOWN

41

44

-7%

34

21%

UPPER EAST SIDE

60

56

7%

43

40%

UPPER WEST SIDE

46

45

2%

35

31%

UPPER MANHATTAN

50

66

-24%

41

22%

13

Q3 2014

Sneak Peek At Urban Compass, we collect a lot of data, and strive to look at it through as many different lenses as possible to provide our agents, our clients, and the industry with creative insights.

NEIGHBORHOOD AFFINITY

Here is the first sneak peek at what Urban Compass Research is working on: Neighborhood Affinity. In this map, we display which neighborhoods are searched for the most, denoted by the size of the circle. When we zoom in on the Upper West Side, we can see which other neighborhoods are searched by the same users when looking for homes in the Upper West Side, as denoted by the thickness of the line.

In this example, people searching in the Upper West Side are most likely to also search in the Upper East Side, followed

by Chelsea, the West Village, and Williamsburg.

Source: Urban Compass Research

14

Q3 2014

Sneak Peek Here is another sneak peek into Urban Compass Research: Days on Market Distribution. In this chart, we analyzed all properties that went into contract from January 1, 2013 to September 15, 2014. We mapped out the percentage of these properties over the number of days on market. 10% of all properties went into contract in the first 14 days. 40% of properties went into contract between the 15th and 36th days. 50% of contracted properties in this time period happened after the 36th day.

DAYS ON MARKET DISTRIBUTION

50%

0.5%

1%

1.5%

2%

40%

Source: Urban Compass Research

0%

PERCENTAGE OF CONTRACTS SIGNED

2.5%

10%

0

14

20

30

36

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

DAYS ON MARKET

15

Q3 2014

Sneak Peek Because great things come in threes, here is one last sneak peak into Urban Compass Research: Signed Contract Market Share Maps. In this marimekko chart, we plot the asking price of every listing that went into contract during the third quarter of 2014. Each column represents a submarket in Manhattan. The width of each column indicates the share of in-contract listings by dollar volume, proportionate to Manhattanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total dollar volume of signed contracts. Each box shows listings that fall into the specified bedroom category. The height of each box represents the share of contracts of each bedroom category in its respective market. Inside each box, we include three statistics: number of contracts, average price and average price per square foot.

For example: Downtown represents 36% of total contract dollar value in Manhattan, while two-bedroom units account for 34% of all Downtown contracts. With a total of $632M in contract dollar value, two-bedroom units in Downtown Manhattan represent 12% of all contracts in Manhattan.

CONTRACTS BY SUBMARKET SHARE

Manhattan 2014 Q3 Contracts: Total Contract Value = $5.03B Total Contracts: = 2,859 Average Price = $1.8M Average PPSF = $1,465 STUDIO

1 BED

2 BEDS

$1.8B

3 BEDS

AVERAGE PRICE

4+ BEDS

$1.3B

$1B

$532M

100% 31 ($9.7M) $2,617/sf

75%

37 ($9.4M) $2,770/sf

94 ($4.9M) $2,300/sf 104 ($3.4M) $2,001/sf

35 ($6M) $1853/sf

214 ($1.9M) $1,601/sf

0%

127 ($650K) $1132/sf DOWNTOWN

203 ($872K) $1,265/sf

28($3.3M) $1,652/sf

2 ($3M) 1,123

3 ($1.8M) $1,007/sf

10

($958K)

($3.2M)

$754/sf

38

$2,553/sf

39 111 ($1.9M) ($2.5M) $1,612/sf $1,950/ sf

96 ($668K) $669/sf

200($1.8M)$1418/sf 168 ($793K) $1,120/sf

25% 317 ($1.2M) $1,482/sf

9($4.9M) $1,443/sf

72($3.6M) $1744/sf

50% 252 ($2.5M) $1,795/sf

$263M $132M

69 ($1M) $1,467/sf

114 ($440K) $668/sf

187($777M)$964/sf

68 ($578K) $1,307/sf

73 ($410M) $931/sf

UPPER WEST

UPPER EAST

110 ($453K) $893/sf

30 ($588K) $1282/sf

20 ($315K) $712/sf

Source: Urban Compass Research

MIDTOWN EAST

MW

UM

16

Our Manhattan Market Compass Report uses recorded sales data from ACRIS and sales listings data from hundreds of brokerages to craft insights on the Manhattan residential real estate market. Data is represented on a quarterly basis and for most metrics, tracks activity since 2008. We chose 2008 as a starting point to compare the current market to the pre-recession market.

Urban Compass, Inc. makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to future market conditions or prices of residential product at the time the subject property or any competitive property is complete and ready for occupancy or with respect to any report, study, finding, recommendation or other information provided by Urban Compass, Inc. herein. Moreover, no warranty, express or implied, is made or should be assumed regarding the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of any information, in part or whole, contained herein. Any and all such warranties are hereby expressly disclaimed.

2014 Š Urban Compass, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This information may not be copied, used or distributed without Urban Compass, Inc.â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consent.