Miami Climate Symposium 2020: Predicting and Living with Extremes

Miami Climate Symposium 2020: Predicting and Living with Extremes January 22-24, 2020 Extreme weather and climate events pose risk of disasters for people and nature. South Florida is especially vulnerable to climate-related extremes, and the region is striving to find policy solutions that balance human and environmental needs.

The University of Miami’s Miami Climate Symposium 2020: Predicting and Living with Extremes will present the state of the science for understanding climate dynamics and extreme events – and managing the associated risks. The interdisciplinary symposium will discuss the cutting-edge research for predicting extreme events within a changing climate, from the local to international scale.

Experts from UM’s Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science will convene and lead other scientific thought leaders, and local stakeholders to: • Explore how hurricanes, storm surge, and coastal flooding are exacerbated by long-term climate issues (sea-level rise, salt water intrusion, and extreme heat waves) • Discuss adaptation policies and strategies • Assess responses to extreme events at the local level.

Throughout the event, a team of “translators” – comprised of journalists with a proven understanding of reporting climate science – will synthesize the presentations and discussions. They will present their findings during the symposium’s capstone closing session, which will be open to the public and the press, and will include a panel discussion with scientists, stakeholders and decision makers.

Symposium Organizers

Roni Avissar, Kenny Broad, Amy Clement, Ben Kirtman, Katharine Mach, Brian Soden University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

Symposium Agenda

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Rosenstiel School Auditorium 8:30-9:00

Welcome and Introductory Remarks

Session 1: Tropical Cyclones, Extreme Rainfall and Drought (Risk) Chair Amy Clement, Professor, UM Rosenstiel School 9:00-9:30

Tom R. Knutson, Research Meteorologist, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory: Tropical Cyclones

9:30-10:00

Christina Patricola (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory): Anthropogenic Influences on Major Tropical Cyclone Events

10:00- 10:30 Mike Davey, Mayor and Andrea M. Agha, Village Manager, Village of Key Biscayne: Let’s Talk Local Government #VKBresilience 10:30-10:45 Break 10:45-11:15 Adam Sobel, Professor, Columbia University: The global warming signal in present and future hurricane activity 11:15-11:45 Roger Pulwarty, Senior Scientist, NOAA Physical Sciences Division: Going to extremes: from disaster risk to Resilience 11:45-12:15: Lightning Talks (3X10 Minutes each) 1. Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, UM Rosenstiel School & Debra Hernandez (SECOORA): Coastal Ocean Observing in the Southeast: Impact of the Florida Current on Climate 2. Maria Caballero-Espejo (Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina): Future Precipitation Impacts in Peru during Strong Coastal, El Nino Events: Building a Climate Adaptation Strategy 3. Armen Henderson, UM Medical School: A Medical Model of Community-Centered Disaster Relief in South Florida 12:15-1:30

Lunch break

Session 2: Tropical Cyclones, Extreme Rainfall and Drought (Resilience) Chair Katharine Mach, Associate Professor, UM Rosenstiel School 1:30-2:10 Lightning Talks (4x10 Minutes each) 1. Stephanie Barr, Waterloo: Evaluating Choice of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Biodiversity Conservation: Low Regrets Strategies Still Referred Over Climate-Targeted Ones 2. Udayan Singh, University of Virginia: How should Electricity Systems Evolve to be more Resilient towards Extreme Weather Events?

3. Landolf Rhode-Barbarigos, UM College of Engineering: Morphological Experimental Design of an Ecofriendly Modular Shoreline Protection System 4. Diego Lirman, UM Rosenstiel School: Evaluating the Role Coral Reefs play in Wave Mitigation through Physical Testing and Field Studies 2:10-3:10 Discussion (Moderator: Mach, Panel: Knutson, Patricola, Sobel, Pulwarty) 3:10-3:30 Break

Session 3: Tropical Cyclones, Extreme Rainfall and Drought (Risk): Chair Ben Kirtman, Professor UM Rosenstiel School 3:30-4:00 Jim Benedict, Assistant Research Scientist, UM Rosenstiel School: Precursor Extratropical Weather Patterns of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers 4:00-4:30 Libby A. Barnes, Associate Professor, Colorado State University: Empirical Models for Predicting Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation 4:30-5:00 Jayantha T. Obeysekera, Director and Research Professor, Florida International University: Challenges in predicting extreme rainfall using statistical and dynamical downscaling 5:00-6:00 Discussion (Moderator: Becker, Panel: Barnes, Benedict, Obey, Pulwarty) 6:00-7:30 Mixer at SALT Waterfront Restaurant - UM Rosenstiel School

Symposium Agenda Thursday, January 23, 2020 Rosenstiel School Auditorium Session 4: Coastal Flooding (Risk): Chair Emily Becker, NOAA UM Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies 8:30-9:00 9:00-9:30

Gary Mitchum, Professor, University of South Florida: Sea Level Rise, Climate Sensitivity, and Ocean-Atmosphere Variability: An Evolving Landscape Ben Kirtman, Professor, UM Rosenstiel School: Towards Coast Flood Risk Prediction from Days to Decades

9:30-10:30 Lightning Talks (6x10 Minutes each) 1. Matthew McCarthy, University of South Florida: Enhanced 3-D Mapping for Habitat and Flood Hazard Assessments of the Southern US 2. Delany Reynolds, UM: The Challenge of a Generation 3. Jen Posner, UM: Housing Resiliency and a Sustainable South Florida 4. Alanna Lecher, Lynn University: Inferring Past and Current Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Florida with Geoarcheology 5. Brian McNoldy, UM/RSMAS, A quarter-century of tide measurements at RSMAS 6. Sara Ayers-Rigsby, MA/RPA & Chris Davenport, FAU: Taking the Long View: The Regional Climate Action Plan 2.0 and Prioritizing Historic Properties 10:30-10:45 Break Session 5: Coastal Flooding (Resilience): Chair Kenny Broad, Professor UM Rosenstiel School 10:45-11:15 Carolyn Kousky, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Process Center, University of Pennsylvania: insurance in a warming world 11:15-11:45 Thomas Ruppert, University of Florida/Florida Sea Grant, Navigating Flooding Roads: Legal Challenges & Policy Recommendations for Florida

11:45-12:15 Katharine Mach, UM Rosenstiel School: Managed Retreat as an Adaptive Response to Climate Change 12:15 - 1:30 Lunch 1:30-1:50 Reitmeister Award (Presenter: Gina Maranto; Awardees: Jane Gilbert, Jim Murley and Suzy Torriente) 1:50-2:20 Miyuki Hino, (UNC – Chapel Hill): Does information about climate risk affect property values?

2:20-3:00 Lightning Talks (4X10 Minutes each) 1. Bethany Blakeman, Gabriela Falla and Natalie Barefoot, Miami Law Environmental Justice Clinic: There Will be Floods: Armoring the People of South Florida to Make Informed Decisions on Flood Risks 2. Sondra Eger, Waterloo: Learning from Experience to Advance the Operationalization of Integrated Coastal and Marine Management in the Bay of Fundy, Canada 3. Keren Bolter: The Florida Hurricane Response Hub: Improving Resilience to the Health Impacts of Sea Level Rise 4. Angela Clark, Amy Clement, Tyler Harrison, Joanna Lombard, Gina Maranto, Sam Purkis, UM/ULINK: Transforming the Paradigm for Climate Adaptation 3:00-3:15 Ashul Tuteja AVP of Fleet Optimization, Royal Caribbean Cruises: How Extreme Events Impact Cruising: how global extreme events can impact the cruise industry and the steps they are taking to optimize their fleet and reduce their impact 3:15-3:30 Break Session 6: Coastal Flooding (Resilience): Chair Kenny Broad, Professor UM Rosenstiel School 3:30-4:00 Cherly Hapke, University of South Florida: A Model-based Decision Support Framework for Coastal Community Sea-level Rise Adaptation 4:00-4:30 Jim Murley, Miami Dade County Chief Resilience Officer: Integrating Regional and Local actions to address short and long term coastal flooding 4:30-5:30 Discussion (Moderator: Broad; Panel: Murley, Hapke, Hino, Mach)

Symposium Agenda

Friday, January 24th 2020 Rosenstiel School Auditorium Session 7: Heat Waves/Cold Spells/Fire (Risk) : Chair Ben Kirtman, Professor UM Rosenstiel School 8:30-9:00

Hosmay Lopez, NOAA/AOML: Variability, Predictability, and Future Projections of Heat Waves in the United States

9:00-9:30

Emily Becker, UM/CIMAS: Can a Multi-model Ensemble Predict Extreme Seasonal Temperatures?

9:30-10:00 Peitao Peng, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center: Was the North American Extreme Climate in Winter 2013/2014 a SST Forced Response?

10:00-10:25 Michael Jarro, Vice President Tranmission and Substation, Florida Power & Light Company: Building a stronger, smarter and more resilient grid 10:25-10:40 Break 10:40-11:10 Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/CPC: Operational Prediction, Current Development and Ongoing Research of Extreme Events on the S2S Time Scale at the Climate Prediction Center 11:10-11:40 Chris Holmes, Florida State University: Living with Fire in Florida 11:40 12:10 Rebecca Miller, Stanford: Living with Fire: Wildlife Adaptation in California 12:10-12:40 Lightning Talks (3X10 Minutes each) 1. Gavin D. Madakumbura, UCLA: Consecutive Flood and Heatwave in Japan 2018 and Future Increase of Compound Risk 2. Ajay Raghavendra, SUNY-Albany: Floridian Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation: Observed Trends and Future Climate Projections 3. Madeline McFadden (Wilfred Laurier University): Natural Hazard Risk Management and Knowledge Mobilization in Ontario's Parks

12:40- 1:30 Discussion (Moderator: Kirtman; Panel: Lopez, Becker, Miller, Peng, Gottshalck) 1:30

Symposium concludes at the Rosenstiel School

Friday, January 24th 2020 Fieldhouse at the Watsco Center University of Miami Coral Gables Campus 3:00-5:30 Public event - Community discussion on the outcomes of the Miami Climate Symposium 2020 Public session featuring a Keynote address, Disasters and Climate Change: The Global and the Local,

by Adam Sobel, Director of the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate at Columbia University, and a panel discussion moderated by Bill Weir, CNN chief climate correspondent

Adam Sobel, Professor, Applied Physics and Mathematics, Columbia University Dr. Sobel is a Professor of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, and of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. He directs its Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate. His research area is meteorology with a focus on atmospheric and climate dynamics, tropical meteorology, and extreme weather.

He obtained his Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1998 and won the American Geophysical Union Atmospheric Science Section Ascent Award in 2014.

Along with Tapio Schneider, he co-edited the review book, The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere (2007). He was also featured in the 2012 NOVA documentary, “Inside the Megastorm” about Hurricane Sandy, and later published the book, Storm Surge: Hurricane Sandy, Our Changing Climate, and Extreme Weather of the Past and Future (2014). Overall, his publications have been cited close to 5,000 times, and he has an hindex of 38 as of November 5, 2015.

Roger Pulwarty, Senior Scientist, NOAA Physical Sciences Division, Earth Systems Research Laboratory Dr. Pulwarty is the Senior Scientist in the NOAA Physical Sciences Division in Boulder, Colorado. His research focuses on climate, risk management and science policy in the U.S., Latin America and the Caribbean and has also helped develop and lead widelyrecognized interdisciplinary programs linking science and services, including the World Meteorological Organization Climate Services Information System, the National Integrated Drought Information System, the NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments, and the GEF-funded Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate in the Caribbean (Vulnerability and Capacity).

He has served as a convening lead author on national and international assessments such as the IPCC Working Group II, UN DRR Global Assessments, and U.S. National Climate Assessments. He is an advisor on adaptation to the Organization of American States, the EU, the OECD, and the IDB and World Bank, among others. He has provided testimonies before the US Congress, served on White House Task Forces on the WaterEnergy-Food Nexus and Climate and National Security, and is US Co-chair for SDG 6 (Water). Roger’s work on integrating science and decision-making has been awarded by the US Government, the American Geophysical Union, and the Government of Trinidad and Tobago. He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Indian Sciences and Engineering Society. Roger is the co-editor of “Hurricanes: Climate and Socio-economic Impacts” and “Drought.

Pulwarty is an adjunct professor at the University of Colorado, and the University of the West Indies, Barbados.

Tom R. Knutson, Research Meteorologist, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Dr. Knutson avoids one-dimensional thinking whenever possible, but especially at work. Because the GFDL research meteorologist sees global climate change as much more than a surface temperature issue, he approaches and studies it as a multilayered phenomenon daily. As a member of GFDL’s Climate Change, Variability, and Prediction Group, the bulk of Knutson’s research revolves around anthropogenic forcings (due to human activity), such as increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and how they may be altering the earth’s climate. Knutson has worked at GFDL since 1990. He serves as co-chair of the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones and has authored studies on the potential impact of climate change and hurricanes. Recently, he led a project focused on simulating past and future Atlantic hurricane activity using regional high resolution models.

Elizabeth A. Barnes, Associate Professor, Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University Dr. Barnes joined the CSU faculty in 2013 after obtaining dual B.S. degrees (Honors) in Physics and Mathematics from the University of Minnesota, obtaining her Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Washington, and spending a year as a NOAA Climate & Global Change Fellow at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Professor Barnes' research is focused on large scale atmospheric variability and the data analysis tools used to understand its dynamics. Topics of interest include jet-stream dynamics, Arctic-midlatitude connections, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of extreme weather events (she is currently Task Force Lead for the NOAA MAPP Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force), health-related climate impacts, and data science methods for climate research (e.g. machine learning, causal discovery). She teaches graduate courses on fundamental atmospheric dynamics and data science and statistical analysis methods.

Barnes is involved in a number of research community activities. In addition to being the lead of the NOAA MAPP S2S Prediction Task Force, she serves on the advisory panel for the Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) Laboratory at NCAR, the NSF Arctic Sciences Section Portfolio Review Committee, the AMS AOFD Committee, is an Associate Editor of Journal of Climate, an Editorial Board Member for NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, and serves as a member of the International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology, a Commission of the IAMAS.

Carolyn Kousky, Executive Director, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania Dr. Kousky’s research has examined multiple aspects of disaster insurance markets, the National Flood Insurance Program, federal disaster aid, and policy responses to potential changes in extreme events with climate change. She has published numerous articles, reports, and book chapters on the economics and policy of natural disasters and disaster insurance markets, and is routinely cited in media outlets including NPR, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CBS News, and Business Insurance, among others.

Kousky is the recipient of the X International Julio Castelo Matrán Insurance Award from the Fundación MAPFRE on behalf of the Policy Incubator and the 2013 Tartufari International Prize from the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei. Kousky was a member of the National Research Council Committee on Analysis of Costs and Benefits of Reforms to the National Flood Insurance Program and is a University Fellow at Resources for the Future. She has a BS in Earth Systems from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in Public Policy from Harvard University.

Ben Kirtman, Professor, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science Dr. Kirtman’s research is a wide-ranging program designed to understand and quantify the limits of climate predictability from days to decades. His research also involves understanding how the climate will change in response to changes in anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases) and natural (e.g., volcanoes) forcing. This research involves hypothesis testing numerical experiments, using sophisticated state-of-the-art climate models and experimental real-time prediction. His group uses and has access to a suite of climate models, climate data, and highperformance computational platforms.

Kirtman also is the director of the UM/NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and program director for Climate and Environmental Hazards at UM's Center for Computational Science. He is co-chair of the NOAA Climate Prediction Task Force and a member of the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship committee. Internationally, he has enjoyed a leadership role in the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) seasonal to interannual prediction activities and has chaired the International CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to lnterannual Prediction (WGSIP), and the WCRP Task Force for Seasonal Prediction (TFSP). Kirtman was a coordinating lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group one, the Scientific Basis.

Katharine Mach, Associate Professor, Marine Ecosystems and Society, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

Dr. Mach is an Associate Professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, and a faculty scholar at the University of Miami Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy. Mach's research assesses climate change risks and response options to address increased flooding, extreme heat, wildfire, and other hazards. Through innovative approaches to integrating evidence, she informs effective and equitable adaptations to the risks.

Mach previously was a Senior Research Scientist at Stanford University and Director of the Stanford Environment Assessment Facility. From 2010 until 2015, Mach codirected the scientific activities of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This work on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability culminated in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report and its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. The associated global scientific collaborations have supported diverse climate policies and actions, including the Paris Agreement.

Mach is a lead author for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and the US Fourth National Climate Assessment. She serves as an associate deputy editor for Climatic Change and an advisory board member for the Aspen Global Change Institute and Carbon180. Across all of her research projects, Mach engages in relevant policy processes, and she frequently discusses climate change risk and adaptation with the media, the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, and communities. Mach received her Ph.D. from Stanford University and AB summa cum laude from Harvard College.

Jim Benedict, Assistant Research Scientist, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science Benedict is a research scientist at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, but lives and works remotely from Colorado as a visiting scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Benedict uses comprehensive and idealized global climate models to explore largescale modes of atmospheric variability in the tropics and midlatitudes on weekly to monthly time scales, tropicalextratropical interactions, precipitation extremes, and the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling on variability. He received his B.S. from the Pennsylvania State University and Ph.D. from Colorado State University

Gary Mitchum, Professor of Physical Oceanography and Associate Dean, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida

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Dr. Mitchum received his PhD from the Department of Oceanography at the Florida State University in 1984, and spent 11 years in the Department of Oceanography at the University of Hawaii as a member of the research faculty and the Director the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center. He has published on a wide variety of topics in ocean physics, but his research interests primarily emphasize short-term climate variability, ranging from season-to-season changes to year-to-year changes to longterm sea level rise. Over the past decade or so he has spent a substantial amount of time advising local, regional and state decision makers and practitioners on sea level change issues.

Hosmay Lopez, Oceanographer, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory Dr. Lopez is an oceanographer at NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. He is currently engaged in several research projects, which aim at studying the ocean-

atmosphere interaction, climate variability, the occurrence of extreme weather events, and their economic and societal impact. One of his recent studies involved assessing the relative role of anthropogenic forcing versus natural variability in the occurrence of heat wave events in the U.S. In this study, he used the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models to identified when we might expect the climate change signal to emerge on top of naturally occurring heat waves into the 21st Century climate projections. Dr. Lopez is also leading a project on inter-hemispheric variations of the Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its significant impacts on atmospheric circulation, climate, and extreme weather. He is also a team leader for a NOAA (NGI, Northern Gulf Institute) project, which focus on developing a seasonal outlook for U.S. land falling hurricanes.

Lopez is currently a member of several research communities, such as the NOAA OAR-CPO-MAPP CMIP6-Trask-Force Team, the US-AMOC Science team for US CLIVAR, and the NOAA MAPP Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force.

He has a B.S. in Meteorology and Mathematics from Florida State University and a Ph.D. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Emily Becker, Associate Scientist, NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science Dr. Becker recently joined the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) as an Associate Scientist, following ten years with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Her specialties include subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction and predictability, diagnostics and prediction of weather and climate extremes, large-scale climate variability, and public outreach. She is the lead writer for NOAA climate.gov’s ENSO Blog, where she covers topics such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, seasonal prediction, and current events in weather and climate for a wide readership.

Becker has been involved with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble since its inception in 2011, including development, operational production, and support for the user community; she has also published several research papers on the topic. She served as co-chair of the US CLIVAR panel on Predictability, Predictions, and Application Interface from 2017–18, and is currently a member of the AMS Applied Climatology Committee. Becker received her Ph.D. from the University of Maryland in 2009.

Miyuki Hino, Ph.D. Candidate Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University

Miyuki studies strategies for managing flood risk in a changing climate, ranging from strategic relocation programs to insurance and real estate markets. Her research examines the social, environmental, and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation to inform planning and policy choices.

She comes to Stanford after several years developing and harnessing scientific knowledge to guide climate change adaptation and mitigation decision-making, across the spectrum from academic research to science communication. She contributed to climate-resilient development as a consultant with ICF International, analyzing the impacts of climate change on infrastructure and creating climate risk screening tools for international development organizations. Her professional experience also includes developing tailored messages on the economic benefits of climate change mitigation policy for government officials and business leaders with the New Climate Economy, and research on flexible infrastructure investments for flood risk management at the University of Oxfords Environmental Change Institute.

Miyuki received a B.S. in Chemical Engineering from Yale University.

James F. Murley, Chief Resiliency Officer, Miami-Dade County James F. Murley was appointed the Chief Resiliency Officer for Miami Dade County, which is a participant in the Rockefeller 100 Resilient Cities Program. In this position, he will be responsible for securing the county’s fate over the next century as sea levels are expected to rise by at least one foot. He has also been tasked with making sure that the county is prepared for hurricanes, population spikes, and other sudden stresses. Murley was also recently appointed to the City of Miami Sea Level Rise Committee, and has spent over 10 years with the Florida Atlantic University, where he oversaw research on urban and environmental issues. He is a founding Board member of the American Society for Adaptation Professionals and a Fellow at the National Academy of Public Administration.

Murley has served as the Secretary of the Department of Community Affairs, chaired the Florida Energy and Climate Commission, and served as the Executive Director of 1000 Friends of Florida and the Executive Director of the South Florida Regional Planning Council. He is a former Vice-Chair of the Miami-Dade County Sea Level Rise Task Force, and is a veteran of the planning side of government.

He has also served as Head of the Florida Department of Community Affairs and the Director of Florida Atlantic University’s Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions.

Christina Marie Patricola, Research Scientist, Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, University of California Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Dr. Patricola's research focuses on understanding mechanisms of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change within the coupled Earth system and improving seasonal to centennial climate prediction. She uses high-resolution numerical climate models and observations to understand connections between the large-scale climate and extreme climate events, including tropical cyclones, floods, and drought.

Patricola received a B.S. in Geological Sciences, cum laude, College of Engineering from Cornell University, and a M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from Cornell University.