UCF Florida & Metro Forecast March 2017

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F lo r i d a S umma r y

U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6.

Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still deeply scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.3% during 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.6% over that same time period.

U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010). The employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act likely caused the levels of underemployment to grow. Employer and worker responses to the full/parttime distinction and the disincentives to full-time work resulting from the law will be removed by the current proposal to repeal the law. This would have a downward effect on the levels of U-6 nationally and in Florida. Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of that healthcare law on the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment remains historically large. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 4.7 percentage points, while that gap is 5.4 percentage points in Florida.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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