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Florida & Metro Forecast 2017-2020

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published March 2017


ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA (UCF)

ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2017 - 2020 Ma rc h 2 017 R e p o r t

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Colin Lancaster, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights..................................................... 5 Florida Summary................................................. 6-17

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Forecast Tables.................................................. 18-23 Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 24-32 Florida News Summaries....................................... 33 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 34-38 Gainesville......................................................... 39-43 Jacksonville....................................................... 44-48 Lakeland............................................................ 49-53 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 54-58 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 59-63 Ocala................................................................. 64-68 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 69-73 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 74-78 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 79-83 Tallahassee........................................................ 84-88 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 89-93 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 94


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H I G H LI G HTS O F TH E MARCH 2017 F LO R I DA FO R ECA ST 2017-2020 • P areto optimality, politics, and Pitbull: In the perfect world of economic theory, there isn’t a need for economic development agencies or economic incentives. In the world in which our economy exists, there is a need for both–and also, there is Pitbull. • From 2017-2020, Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product (RGSP), will expand at an average annual rate of 3.8%. • Real Gross State Product will expand by 3.2% in 2017. It will expand by 4.3% in 2018 before growth eases slightly to 4.2% in 2019 and then to 3.4% in 2020. Average growth during 2017-2020 is expected to be 0.7 percentage points faster than our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period. • Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Yearover-year growth should average 2.6% in 2017, 2.5% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Average job growth over the 2017-2020 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than that of the national economy. • Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2017-2020. Consistent robust payroll job creation has strengthened Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment as well as attract outof-state job seekers. • This same labor force growth makes the task of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging, but Florida’s labor market is up to the task. The unemployment rate should fall to 4.6% in 2017, 4.3% in 2018, and 4.0% in 2019, and then to 3.8% in 2020. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2020 are Professional & Business Services (5.6%), Construction (5.1%), Financial (2.3%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.0%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.0%), and Education & Health Services (1.6%). • Housing starts flattened out in 2013-2014 and sputtered again during parts of 2015-2016. Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the short run. Total starts will be 128,600 in 2017, 142,800 in 2018, 155,300 in 2019, and 170,500 in 2020. House price appreciation should decelerate over this period, as supply catches up with demand. • Real personal income growth will average 4.7% during 2017-2020, with 3.4% growth in 2017 rising to 5.7% growth in 2019. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 1.2 percentage points over that four-year span. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 5.1% during 2017-2020, boosted by a stronger national economy and continued strength in Florida’s labor market and rising household wealth.

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PA R E T O O P T I M A L I T Y, P O L I T I C S , AND PITBULL Pareto Optimality It’s been more than twenty years since I finished my Ph.D. I still have flashbacks and the occasional nightmare that I somehow missed some real or imaginary component of my graduate program and wake up anxiety-ridden at the prospect of still not being done.

I know I should be telling this to a therapist rather than typing it here, but it’s not so easy to get an appointment in these months following the 2016 presidential election1 (See our February 2017 U.S. Forecast publication for a discussion of Mr. Trump’s Wild Ride). I chose primary areas of specialization in macroeconomics/monetary economics and international finance, but all doctoral students were required to take a core sequence of classes providing training in macroeconomic theory, microeconomic theory, and econometrics (statistical analysis as applied to economics).

the academic universe in which I resided.

It was a pure, concentrated theory class heavy on proofs—deductive arguments for mathematical statements—with not a drop of data to be found and far from the plethora of data through which I now wade on a daily basis. It cut straight to the mathematical and theoretical underpinnings of market-based economics. I enjoyed it immensely.

We studied the fundamental theorems of welfare economics—not welfare in the public assistance sense, but welfare meaning the evaluation of the well-being of the economy as a whole. One of the theorems we studied, the first fundamental theorem of welfare economics, captured the logic of Adam Smith’s invisible hand that guides markets.

Under a set of assumptions, assumptions that create the equivalent of a semi-conductor manufacturing clean room or the perfect vacuum of physics, this theorem showed that competitive markets produce an outcome that is Pareto optimal. Pareto optimality (efficiency) is a state where scarce resources are allocated in a way that it is impossible to reallocate them so as to make any individual better off without making another individual worse off. Or to paraphrase the old Gillette razor advertisements, 2 this outcome is the best an economy can get.

Obviously I loved the macroeconomics and econometrics courses, and research and teaching in these areas have been the staples of my career to date. But in times of weakness, like in the wake of those aforementioned nightmares, if I am being honest with myself, my favorite class was probably my final course in the microeconomic theory core. Don’t take this the wrong way; I would never want to be a microeconomist and the material covered in that course is pretty far removed from what I do Talk about reaching nirvana, economic today. This being said, that class uncovered, precisely enlightenment, or witnessing a miracle that removed detailed, and elegantly confirmed the essential any doubt I may have had about the power of building blocks of our economy and the origins of markets. I had been told and taught throughout

1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/inside-the daily-american-panic-attack

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2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThDBf14qPsc


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the years that this was true, but to see it proven at such a fundamental level was not quite a religious experience on a metaphysical level—it was a powerful affirmation of beliefs about what drives the best possible corporeal existence in our economy. POLITICS

One of the hot topics in the current Florida legislative session swirls around the role of government in economic development. Should Florida fund agencies that foster, support, and cultivate the growth and attraction of businesses or specific industries, such as Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida? Should the state provide economic incentives to individual companies to help attract them to the state or help them grow once they are here—referred to by opponents as corporate welfare (the corporate version of public assistance)? Now, I will not go into the political aspects of what may be fueling this debate: the appealing to certain constituents, the aspirations for election or re-election, or the seeking of funding for current or future campaigns. I will leave that instead for my colleagues who are political scientists. Instead, let me discuss debate in the context of my favorite graduate school class.

In that world of economic theory, assumptions are made to create a vacuum or economic clean room in which hypotheses can be tested and in which they can be proven or disproven. This is not done to stack the deck, but out of necessity to simplify and make tractable the process of carrying out the testing and proof. In the case of the first theorem of welfare economics, some of these less esoteric assumptions include complete markets with no transaction costs where buyers and sellers both possess perfect information and all are price takers. That is to say there are no monopolists and there is easy entry and

exit from markets. In this assumption-created clean room, there is no role for government intervention, competitive markets do all the work and we end up with a competitive equilibrium that is Pareto optimal.

Markets do the work without need for government to incentivize business or fund economic development organizations. So in this theoretical world, those opposed to government funding and playing such a role in economic development are right. There is no need for this type of government intervention in the clean room.

Unlike these economic theory purists, there are politicians who support, encourage, and wish to expand funding of incentives, economic development, and industry promotion agencies. In doing so, I don’t believe they are disavowing the power of competitive markets to lead toward an efficient allocation of our economy’s resources, but rather they question the assumptions about complete markets and perfect competition that are necessary for markets to arrive at a Pareto equilibrium on their own. The world we live in falls quite short of the refined academic world of economic welfare theory. There, no state would provide incentives or need to expend effort and resources to attract and grow businesses. Yet nearly all states have some version of an Enterprise Florida and other regional economic development entities as well as tourism and travel agencies supported fully or in part by government revenue. Their existence tilts the playing field and further invalidates those theoretical assumptions.

When a business is looking to relocate or expand in the U.S., the owners/executives making the decision do not possess perfect information (another theoretical assumption bites the dust) nor go on a 50-state bus tour investigating every possible location so they hire firms or individuals known as

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site selectors. The site selector scours the options, then whittles down lists of possible locations that they then use to make recommendations to their clients. Where and what do these site selectors look at when coming to their final recommendations?

According to a Site Selection Magazine survey,3 which asked the site selectors to provide a ranking of state business climates in 2016, the top eleven according to this survey are as follows: Site Selection’s Top State Business Climates 1. Georgia

7. Louisiana

2. North Carolina

8. South Carolina

3. Ohio

9. Alabama

4. Tennessee 4. Texas

10. Indiana 11. Florida

5. Virginia

The magazine also did a survey of corporate real estate executives asking what matters most to site selectors when choosing locations. The results are listed below: Site Selectors’ Most Important Location Criteria 1. Workforce Skills

6. Workforce development

2. Incentives

7. Utilities (cost, reliability)

3. State and local tax scheme

7. Higher education resources

4. Transportation infrastructure

8. Ease of permitting and regulatory procedures

5. Land/building prices and supply

9. Quality of life

3 http://siteselection.com/issues/2016/nov/cover.cfm

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Florida has a pretty good business climate, better than 39 other states according to this survey, but there are 10 states with even better business climates, and many are in our own backyard or are our competitors at some level.

When it comes to location criteria, incentives are listed as the second most important of the top ten factors of site selection. There are nine other criteria on that list and make no mistake, incentives or any of the others on the list in and of themselves would not guarantee a state success when it comes to business attraction. There are other economic factors that matter but did not make the top ten in this survey. But it is clear incentives matter, economic development agencies matter, and industry promotion agencies matter. We should not judge their existence and the funding of them via a theoretical purity test, a test that in the clean room of economic theory is justified. In the real world theoretical assumptions do not fully hold and such purity tests are not warranted. Instead, as with any government policy, a cost-benefit analysis should be the metric by which alternatives are judged.

In practice, the economy exists not in a perfect vacuum of theory but in a cesspool of flawed assumptions. While assumptions that do not fully live up to their theoretical origins do not fully invalidate those theories, policy debates on economic development activities and incentives would be well informed by recognizing this unpleasant reality. PITBULL

One event that has thrown fuel onto the political debate about Visit Florida and economic development and incentives in general was the revelation, after some attempts to mask the details, that the tourism promotion agency paid the diminutive, bald rapper one million dollars for his


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music video “Sexy Beaches.” I won’t link to it but a but other than death and taxes, who among us does? simple web search will lead you to the video that was It’s easy to point out failures and missteps these at the center of the storm. organizations make and will make in the future but it is not a justification for throwing the baby out I am not a marketing professor nor am I an with the bathwater. advertising executive, and I admit fully that I do not “get” Pitbull. At the risk of offending 80% of my readers, for the life of me I don’t know how he swung this deal or why, for that matter, he even has a career.

Perhaps market research suggested bald men, fearing sunburned scalps, were eschewing visiting the sunshine state and the video of Pitbull frolicking on the beach surrounded by bathing beauties was the way to send the message that it’s okay for them to come to Florida?

Now if Mr. Pitbull and his bathwater should happen to go down the drain… FLO R I DA’S H O U S I N G M A RKET

Low Inventories Continue to Feed Strong Price Appreciation and Sales Deceleration as Affordability Slips

The January 2017 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors portrays a market for existing housing that remains tight, fueling doubleWas Pitbull, aka Mr. 305 (the Miami area code), digit price appreciation. The median sales price for the only option to help promote Florida’s beaches? single-family homes increased $20,100 in January Again, I am no expert in this area but what about 2017, year over year, and now stands at $220,000—a other possible Floridians that could have filled year-over-year price appreciation of a robust 10.1%. this role and perhaps at a fraction of the cost? Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium Mr. Robert Matthew Van Winkle would be one example, though you may know Mr. Van Winkle by market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $10,000 year over year, his nom de coif: Vanilla Ice.4 All joking aside, this Pitbull video turned out to be registering at $161,000 in January of this year. Inventories of single-family homes in July are a public relations mistake that likely cost the CEO down from a year ago and are now just 4.2 months, of Visit Florida his job. Mistakes happen, but does indicating an inventory balance that continues to this decision justify the elimination of the state’s favor sellers in the single-family market, according tourism promotion agency? I don’t think so. Does an incentive package that doesn’t live up to its goals to the Florida Realtors report.6 justify the discontinuation of economic incentives Inventories of condominiums increased from altogether? No, it doesn’t. I wrote an opinion piece 5.8 months’ supply back in January of 2016 to 6.4 on this subject for the Orlando Sentinel.5 I won’t months this January. This indicates that the condo rehash the arguments I made in that article but I market has moved toward a more balanced market stand by what I wrote then. between buyers and sellers but may be slightly tilted Economic development organizations and industry in the buyers’ favor. promotion groups don’t have a 100% success rate, Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form 4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog8ou-ZepE some of you probably wish I hadn’t linked to this video either.

5 http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-ed-incentives-job-creator front-burner-061816-20160617-story.html

6 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers' market, numbers below a sellers' market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9 month inventory as being a balanced market. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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of short sales are continuing to plunge year over year (-36.3%), as are foreclosure/REO sales versus January 2016 (-44.8%). Traditional sales are up 16.5% year over year versus January 2016.

Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are also still rapidly contracting year over year (-47.7%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply as well versus January 2016 (-50.7%). Traditional sales were up 15.8% in January 2017 when compared to January 2016.

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 31.5% in January 2017. For condos, that figure is much higher, as 59.6% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a diminishing role of cash investors in Florida’s housing market amid some improvement in mortgage availability year-over-year.7

Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a strong upward path and the 12-month moving average has now exceeded its peak value during the housing bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market, but over the past year the 12-month moving average flattened out and is now down year over year. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price appreciation over the past two-plus years and a depleted inventory of houses for sale. 7

The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, increased 0.6 percent to 175.2 in December 2016 from November 2016. A rise in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in November 2016 were 74.1% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900. 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

Figure 1.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes 30,000 Realtor Sales

25,000

Moving Average

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Source: Florida Realtors

Figure 2.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000

$250,000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

Source: Florida Realtors

The fundamentals of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S. labor market and more Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives. This bodes well for continued population growth via the inmigration of retirees and job seekers to Florida. The population of Florida is also growing naturally as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state’s population


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growth. We expect this upward trend in sales will resume as increases in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid price appreciation given the improving economic and demographic foundations of demand in the housing market.

Figure 2 displays median sales prices for singlefamily existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The doubledigit pace of price increases gave way to single-digit increases in 2014, but 2015 brought back doubledigit price appreciation for a return engagement that persisted through January of 2017. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $21,050. Low inventories of existing homes for sale and housing starts growth that stalled during 2013 and 2014, and again in parts of 2015-2016, have contributed to an environment where home prices continue to rise at an elevated pace. This is an ongoing shortage in the single-family market that will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts ramp up over the next several years. Singlefamily housing starts in 2020 are expected to increase by 114% from 2014 levels. GR OSS STAT E P R OD UC T Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is expected to grow at a faster pace than we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years, as it has been since 2013, and at a slightly faster pace than we forecasted in our December 2016 Florida & Metro Forecast. In 2013, as the state exited the “greater recession,” Florida’s economy accelerated with a growth rate of 1.9% with rising consumer confidence, progress in the housing market recovery, population growth,

and healing of the damage in the labor market building a foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. The paths for the U.S. and Florida economies since that point have maintained this relative positioning but both are poised to move higher over the next four years.

The improvement of the fundamentals of the state’s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015, when RGSP expanded at 4.0%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date, before decelerating in 2016 as did the national economy. In 2017 through 2020, however, growth will accelerate again as the Trump Administration’s economic policy helps to boost Florida’s economy. Growth in that four-year stretch is expected to be 3.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. During 2017-2020, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.8% annually; this average is 0.1 percentage point higher than in our September forecast. In 2018 and 2019, however, growth has been revised up by larger amounts as anticipated spending and tax policies work their way through the economy. In 2020, growth has been scaled in response to projected increases in interest rates.

This average growth of 3.8% during 2017 through 2020 is a faster pace of the average growth compared to the prior four years (when growth averaged 2.9%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is 0.7 percentage points higher than the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (3.1%). Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200, but now stand at $220,000. This ongoing price appreciation continues to repair damage done to household balance sheets in Florida, but even at today’s double-digit price appreciation, it will still take a couple of years to recover all the wealth lost

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in the housing market collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the median-price high of $257,800 in June of 2006. Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will be nearly $980 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with a NGSP of $1.044 trillion then continue to climb to $1.113 trillion in 2019 before hitting $1.173 trillion in 2020.

Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy bolstered by three rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but then surged to an excess of 18,000 in 2015, where it has been hovering after hitting a high of 18,668. In 2016, financial markets got off to a rough start but recovered by spring. The stock market once again spent much of the time after this recovery at or near the 18,000 point mark, until the presidential election.

Since Donald Trump was elected president the stock market has set multiple record highs, with the P ER SON AL I NCOM E, R ETAI L SA LE S , Dow touching 21,169 at its peak to date. Whether A N D AUTO SAL ES these events were driven by relief that the tedium of the presidential election was finally over, or by In 2015, real personal income growth in Florida hit 5.2% after growing 5.1% in the prior year. These expectations of a stronger economy under the Trump two strong years of growth followed a contraction of Administration (or even a combination of the two) 0.6% in 2013. Growth will ease in 2016, as personal could be debated. There is no debating that the stock market has continued to set and break through income growth comes in at 3.5%. From that point, record highs. For those households holding stocks personal income growth will slip to 3.4% in 2017 before accelerating again to 5.0% in 2018, and 5.7% and bonds directly or through retirement accounts, in 2019, before easing back to 4.5% in 2020. Florida this bull-run has created trillions of dollars of is expected to outpace the nation in personal income wealth. growth, averaging 1.2 percentage points higher than The Fed embarked on its second interest rate hike the national average growth for 2017 through 2020. in December last year, and is poised to do so again Real personal income growth during 2017-2020 will this spring. The reality of interest rate hikes, which average 4.7% in Florida. are likely to come at a more rapid clip in 2017 (three or four times), will weigh on future gains in the Nominal personal income will exceed $1.215 stock market. However, faster economic growth will trillion in 2020, marking an increase in personal likely outweigh the economic drag of higher interest income in excess of $523 billion from its nadir in rates. 2009. In 2016, real disposable income growth will average 3.9%, down from the previous year’s 4.6% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during 2017-2020 will remain a healthy 4.7%, with U.S. real disposable income growth expected to average 3.2% during the same time frame. Financial markets thrived since the low point of the financial crisis thanks in large part to the

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Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly, nor as completely, as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been rising over the past four years. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which has been sustained to date, is creating significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians. However, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue


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to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2018 or longer. Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow, helping to boost consumer confidence and spending and to finance the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida.

With Florida’s strong labor market recovery sustaining its momentum, wage and salary growth that is finally materializing, and more home equity being recovered, retail spending will accelerate through 2019, with growth averaging 3.7% during that year. The average growth rate of retail sales will be over 5.1% during 2017-2020. Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and continued to do so through 2016, though the pace has slowed significantly. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the relative ease and availability of financing the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth and continued improvement of Florida’s labor market. Future growth in these purchases will be more dependent on a stronger economy rather than the availability of easy finance. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand, growing robustly during 2010-2015, when registrations grew at a year-overyear average rate in excess of 11.4%.

rising from the 2019 projection of 1.536 million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016, but the pro-growth policy of the new presidential administration will keep this sector moving forward, albeit in a lower gear. This streak of rising registrations will extend to eleven years, carrying through to the end of our current forecast horizon. E M PLOY M E N T 8 The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to exceed the recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida is that this will continue to be the case through at least 2020, but in light of the change in presidential administration, this outpacing will narrow since higher levels of job growth are expected nationally.

Payroll job growth was robust in 2015 at 3.5%. Some of that momentum has carried over into 2016, though the pace has eased slightly. Growth is expected to decelerate this year to 3.2%, before slowly easing to 2.6% in 2017, 2.5% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our short run forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (20172020) by an average of 0.8 percentage points.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in the state on The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in average through 2020. Job growth in this sector is Florida during 2017-2020. Over this period, vehicle expected to be strong, averaging 5.6% during 2017registration growth in Florida is expected to average 2020. Job growth in this sector over the past three a more modest 1.5%, with growth being at the peak years averaged 4.4%, but growth will be faster over during this time in 2017, with growth at nearly 2.6% the next four years. Job growth will ease in 2016 to before dipping in 2018 to 2.0%, to 1.0% in 2019, and 4.3% after growing 5.0% in 2015, before accelerating to 0.5% in 2020. In 2020, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.596 million,

8

The data used in this forecast for employment and unemployment does not reflect the annual benchmarking revision process. The revised data will be used in the June 2017 Florida & Metro Forecast.

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back to 5.0% in 2017. Growth in this sector will accelerate further to 8.2% in 2018, before easing again to 6.2% in 2019, and 2.8% in 2020.

The Professional and Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service providing businesses, with the exception of waste management. The sector includes accounting firms, financial management companies, advertising agencies, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural and engineering companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector in Florida are nearly $56,036.9 The Professional and Business Services sector in Florida recovered quickly from the “Greater Recession” and was the first to recover all its payroll jobs lost during the recession, and will continue to strongly perform through 2020.

The Construction sector was devastated by the bursting of the housing bubble, with total job losses at just under 347,000. It is expected to be the second fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of our 2020 forecast horizon. While the rate of growth in the Construction sector remains strong, supported by anticipated infrastructure spending by the Trump Administration, the pace of forecasted growth will ease somewhat going forward as higher interest rates driven by Fed's tightening will create a bit of a headwind for housing. Construction job growth is expected to decelerate slightly over the upcoming year but will remain solid, as housing starts continue to grow in an environment that still features double-digit price appreciation for existing single-family homes. Despite the episodic slowing in new home construction growth, the still double-digit growth rates in housing starts over the forecast horizon will

9 According to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: http://floridajobs.org/labor-market-information/data-center/ statistical-programs/quarterly-census-of-employment-and-wages

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support construction job growth of 6.1% in 2016, and 4.9% in 2017, before accelerating to 5.9% in 2018, easing slightly to 5.2% in 2019, and further to 4.6% in 2020.

Average annual job growth during 2017-2020 will be 5.1%. Employment will average 555,783 in 2020—a level that is 126,317 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is $48,168. The Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time in eight years in 2013 with job growth of 0.4%. Growth then accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before the sector began to lose jobs once again in 2015. The Information sector is a mix of high-tech sectors, such as computer programming and software development both sources of growth, but the sector is weighed down by legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which continue to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and who pays for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, will eventually begin to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Even so, the pace of job growth when it returns will remain muted. Growth went into reverse at -0.3% in 2015 and growth will stay in negative territory through 2017 before rising to just 0.4% in 2018. If growth hits that mark in 2018, it will be the first year-overyear growth in the sector since 2014. The projected growth path implies an average growth rate of 0.3% during 2017-2020. The Education and Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently even during the worst of the recession. Demand from the state’s larger share of population of older residents, who have higher


F lo r i d a S umma r y

demand for health services, has supported this growth. The future replacement of the Affordable Care Act, a massive and untenable law, is still being debated. This creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector, but the unknown job growth will continue, though at a diminished rate. During 2017-2020, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 1.6%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $48,900. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 3.2% in 2015, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; 2016 should surpass that solid growth. The economic environment for the manufacturing sector is becoming unfriendlier as global economic environments have weakened significantly, and the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen.

The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, persistent weak growth in Europe, Brexit and its still-unfolding aftermath and a historic recession in Brazil that is refusing to loosen its grip have all fed into the tainting of the global economic environment. The Trump Administration’s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may or may not have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive or negative outcome in the end, but in the meantime they create a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector. These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but in Florida in 2016, job growth will average 3.4%.

We are looking at job growth of 2.2% in manufacturing for 2017, followed by a deceleration to 1.1% in 2018, with stabilization in 2019 and 2020 when manufacturing employment will expand at an average rate equal to 2018 growth of 1.1%.

The State and Local Government sector in Florida is enjoying improved revenue flows. And as housing prices continue to climb at a double-digit pace; property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite these improvements, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing tax revenues, the specter of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued. Florida’s population and economy continue to grow; however, the demand for state and local government services must grow as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government employment will be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during the housing boom. Average job growth in State and Local Government during 2017-2020 will be 1.4%, with annual growth rising to 1.9% in 2019 before easing to 1.7% in 2020. The 2019 growth rate is the expected to be the fastest since before the recession.

On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will begin to worsen over the near term forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida will average -0.3% with growth turning negative in 2017, and remaining in negative territory until the temporary hiring surge during the census year in 2020.

Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs continue to swell, consuming an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie. The proposed fiscal policies of the Trump Administration—large infrastructure spending

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F lo r i d a S umma r y

coupled with tax cuts—will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years.

The relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are in retirement explains why the state’s labor force participation rate is lower than As the Federal Reserve begins to move more the national rate, and the continued migration of quickly with interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is currently more than retirees to the Sunshine State should weigh down on the participation rate. In December 2016, Florida’s $19.9 trillion and poised to go higher will require population over the age of sixteen grew by 311,000 a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of year over year, while its labor force grew by 223,000. running four years of trillion-dollar deficits has The retirement of Baby Boomers to Florida will been dampened by historically low interest rates on Treasury Bonds, but that pain is going to intensify as continue to serve as a ballast on the labor force participation rate in the state. Treasury rates climb along with the Fed’s increases in the federal funds rate, as higher rates of inflation We are forecasting faster economic growth in and a Trump Administration reflate annual budget Florida over the next several years as well as faster deficits. growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the U NEMPLOYM ENT unemployment rate increasingly more of a challenge. The unemployment rate in Florida has plunged After 2015’s growth of 0.8%, we expect the labor from its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in force to grow more rapidly during 2017-2020 at an January 2010, and stands at 4.9% as of December average rate of 2.0%, despite the downward pressure 2016. After five years well above the national from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers rate of unemployment, Florida’s December will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth 2016 unemployment rate is above the national in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter unemployment rate by just 0.2 percentage points. Florida’s labor force. This will result in slower Florida’s labor force participation rate in December declines in the unemployment rate, but this will not stop the downward trend in unemployment rates 2016 stood at 59.3%, which is up from 59.1% one over the forecast horizon. year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.7% in December 2016, which is Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers unchanged from December 2015. This is the lowest who are working part-time but not by choice, and level for the national labor force participation rate workers marginally attached to the labor force (desince February of 1978, and is down 3.3 percentage fined as workers who are neither working nor curpoints from the start of the recession. rently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work The labor force participation rate is calculated as in the past 12 months) remains elevated. When the percentage of the population aged 16 and older adding these workers and discouraged workers who are counted as participating in the labor force. (defined as workers who are currently not working The number of retirees in that population, who are and did not look for a job in the four weeks precedobviously older than sixteen, but who no longer are active in the labor force, push down the overall labor ing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households) to the headline unemployment figure, force participation rate.

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a S umma r y

U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6.

Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still deeply scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.3% during 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.6% over that same time period.

U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010). The employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act likely caused the levels of underemployment to grow. Employer and worker responses to the full/parttime distinction and the disincentives to full-time work resulting from the law will be removed by the current proposal to repeal the law. This would have a downward effect on the levels of U-6 nationally and in Florida. Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of that healthcare law on the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment remains historically large. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 4.7 percentage points, while that gap is 5.4 percentage points in Florida.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

2012

2013

2014

793.1 2.6

798.9 0.7

853.3 6.8

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Personal Income and GSP 900.6 942.2 989.8 5.6 4.6 5.1

1055.8 6.7

1137.8 7.8

1215.1 6.8

5.0

1.2

5.2

4.4

3.3

4.9

5.6

6.0

5.6

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

755.3 0.8 3.0

750.8 -0.6 -0.2

789.3 5.1 3.7

830.2 5.2 4.0

859.5 3.5 2.2

888.6 3.4 2.7

933.4 5.0 3.8

986.7 5.7 4.0

1031.3 4.5 3.4

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $)

685.2 0.5 3.1 764.1

673.7 -1.7 -1.4 793.1

705.5 4.7 3.5 833.4

737.7 4.6 3.5 888.1

766.3 3.9 2.5 928.7

792.6 3.4 2.4 979.6

836.9 5.6 3.4 1043.8

882.6 5.5 3.8 1110.1

919.7 4.2 3.2 1173.2

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

3.1 729.4 0.8

3.8 743.1 1.9

5.1 764.7 2.9

6.6 795.0 4.0

4.6 816.3 2.7

5.5 842.8 3.2

6.5 879.3 4.3

6.4 915.8 4.2

5.7 947.3 3.4

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 8.4 7.1 6.2 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0

2.0 1.8 3.9 3.8

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services

1.7 2.0 -0.3 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.7

1.6 2.5 0.5 7.0 1.6 -0.2 2.5 2.7 1.0 2.7 2.7 4.0

1.9 3.2 0.8 8.6 2.9 1.2 3.8 3.2 2.1 3.8 1.7 4.2

2.1 3.5 2.1 8.0 3.2 1.2 4.2 4.1 2.2 3.7 2.6 5.0

1.8 3.2 -0.4 6.1 3.4 1.9 4.0 3.1 1.8 2.1 3.4 4.3

1.5 2.6 2.3 4.9 2.2 0.6 3.0 2.5 1.4 1.4 3.3 5.0

1.6 2.5 -0.4 5.9 1.1 -0.8 2.0 2.4 2.2 0.5 2.4 8.2

1.7 2.4 -1.8 5.2 1.2 0.0 1.7 1.6 2.0 0.9 1.7 6.2

1.5 2.0 -1.3 4.6 1.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 2.3 0.8 1.7 2.8

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

1.7 4.2 -1.6

1.7 4.0 0.4

2.7 4.6 1.5

3.5 4.2 -0.3

3.8 4.2 -1.5

2.6 2.9 -0.1

0.9 1.3 0.4

1.2 1.7 0.4

1.9 1.9 0.6

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

-0.9 -1.4

-0.5 -0.2

-0.5 -0.1

1.9 0.4

2.6 1.2

-0.8 0.8

-3.2 1.2

-1.5 1.9

4.4 1.7

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Population and Migration 19373.3 19624.7 19936.4 20291.6 20656.8 21009.8 21349.6 21683.3 22015.7 1.3 207.2 -0.2

1.3 237.9 14.8

1.6 299.0 26.3

1.8 339.9 14.6

1.8 340.4 0.2

1.7 316.2 -7.1

1.6 293.9 -7.0

1.6 287.4 -2.2

1.5 286.5 -0.3

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

59.3 42.5

80.6 54.6

79.8 56.0

103.1 68.2

Housing 112.4 77.2

128.6 85.8

142.8 94.3

155.3 101.7

170.5 111.6

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

16.8

26.0

23.8

34.9

35.2

42.8

48.5

53.6

58.9

1.9

1.6

1.8

3.0

3.2

3.2

2.8

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago) 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

0.3

1.7


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago)

969.2 4.9

982.5 4.8

996.6 5.1

1011.0 5.5

1027.3 6.0

1046.1 6.5

1065.1 6.9

U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

4.3 874.7

4.4 883.6

4.6 893.1

5.0 903.1

5.5 914.7

5.8 927.0

3.1 2.5

3.1 2.7

3.4 2.9

4.0 3.4

4.6 3.9

780.8

788.5

796.5

804.7

3.3 2.1

3.2 2.3

3.5 2.4

3.7 2.8

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

959.0 5.0

970.6 5.2

986.4 5.6

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

1084.6 7.3

1108.0 7.8

1128.0 7.8

1147.9 7.8

1167.2 7.6

1187.6 7.2

6.1 939.5

6.4 952.6

6.8 968.3

6.8 980.9

6.8 993.1

6.7 1004.5

6.5 1016.3

4.9 4.1

5.2 4.4

5.5 4.6

5.9 5.0

5.8 4.9

5.7 4.9

5.5 4.7

5.0 4.4

820.6

831.6

842.2

853.3

867.2

877.8

887.9

897.5

907.3

5.1 3.1

5.5 3.3

5.7 3.5

6.0 3.7

5.7 3.9

5.6 3.8

5.4 3.8

5.2 3.7

4.6 3.4

1002.5 6.1

1019.2 6.3

1034.9 6.6

1052.1 6.7

1069.1 6.6

1086.6 6.6

1102.5 6.5

1118.0 6.3

1133.3 6.0

1149.7 5.8

Personal Income and GSP

Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

831.8

837.7

846.3

855.4

865.3

874.1

884.0

893.8

903.4

912.0

920.0

927.9

935.9

(%Ch Year ago)

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

4.0

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.8

3.6

Employment

1.2

1.7

2.9

2.3

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

1.2 5.0

1.8 4.8

2.9 4.7

1.9 4.6

2.3 4.5

2.3 4.4

2.2 4.4

2.2 4.2

2.1 4.1

2.0 4.1

2.0 4.0

1.9 4.0

1.9 4.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

3.1 1.7 4.8 3.5

2.7 3.1 4.4 2.8

2.3 2.5 5.0 1.1

2.3 2.1 5.3 1.4

2.4 1.5 5.5 1.4

2.6 -0.4 5.8 1.3

2.5 -1.0 6.3 0.9

2.4 -1.5 6.1 0.9

2.4 -1.7 5.7 0.8

2.4 -1.8 5.4 1.0

2.3 -1.8 4.9 1.5

2.3 -1.8 4.8 1.4

2.0 -1.6 4.6 1.3

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

1.9 4.2 1.5 1.1

1.5 3.4 2.4 0.7

-0.9 2.1 3.2 1.4

0.0 2.1 3.0 2.4

-0.4 2.2 2.7 2.3

-0.8 2.2 2.6 2.3

-1.1 1.8 2.3 2.1

-1.0 1.8 1.9 1.9

-0.8 1.6 1.7 2.0

-0.3 1.6 1.5 2.1

0.4 1.9 1.6 2.0

0.6 1.8 1.7 2.1

0.5 1.6 1.7 2.3

Retail Trade Financial Activities

2.3 3.5

1.8 3.1

0.9 3.2

0.7 3.3

0.5 2.7

0.4 2.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.0

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

4.6 3.6 4.0 -0.5 2.5 1.3

4.8 2.8 3.6 -0.1 0.3 0.8

4.6 2.4 2.6 0.2 -1.9 0.4

6.1 1.5 1.7 -0.1 -4.0 0.9

7.8 1.1 1.3 0.2 -4.3 1.0

8.7 1.0 1.3 0.6 -3.5 1.0

2.2 8.4 0.7 1.3 0.6 -2.9 1.2

2.1 7.7 0.8 1.4 0.4 -2.2 1.4

1.8 7.4 1.0 1.5 0.4 -1.9 1.6

1.8 6.8 1.2 1.7 0.1 -1.6 1.9

1.6 5.9 1.2 1.8 0.5 -1.3 2.0

1.6 4.9 1.5 1.9 0.5 -1.0 2.0

1.6 3.4 1.7 1.9 0.5 -2.0 1.9

20,879.3

20,966.8

21,053.6

21,139.6

21,224.2

21,307.4

21,391.5

21,475.3

21,558.7

21,641.9

21,724.7

21,807.7

21,890.8

1.7 80.6 -6.8

1.7 80.0 -7.6

1.7 78.5 -7.2

1.7 77.0 -6.8

1.7 75.0 -7.0

1.6 73.0 -8.7

1.6 73.2 -6.8

1.6 72.7 -5.6

1.6 72.4 -3.6

1.6 72.0 -1.4

1.6 71.5 -2.3

1.5 71.6 -1.6

1.5 71.6 -1.1

119.3 81.2 38.2

126.3 84.3 42.0

131.7 87.5 44.2

137.1 90.1 47.0

140.2 92.1 48.1

141.6 93.5 48.1

146.3 96.5 49.8

149.4 98.3 51.1

153.5 100.1 53.4

157.5 102.9 54.6

160.8 105.5 55.2

165.2 108.3 56.9

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

143.0 95.0 47.9

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

3.3

3.3

3.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,500.7

8,538.8

8,597.2

8,652.6

8,708.2

8,757.4

8,812.0

8,862.8

8,920.4

8,971.3

9,018.3

9,063.3

9,100.4

Manufacturing

360.5

361.5

362.4

363.6

365.5

366.1

365.7

367.0

368.5

369.8

371.0

372.1

373.2

Durable Goods

247.6

248.6

249.7

251.0

253.0

254.1

254.2

255.6

257.0

258.2

259.1

260.1

261.1

Wood Products

14.0

14.3

14.3

14.5

14.6

14.7

14.8

15.1

15.4

15.7

16.0

16.3

16.6

Computer & Electronics

43.0

43.0

43.2

43.4

43.7

43.8

43.9

43.9

43.7

43.5

43.2

43.0

43.0

Transportation Equipment

40.3

40.3

40.2

40.3

40.5

40.6

40.5

40.5

40.7

40.8

40.9

41.1

41.5

112.9

112.9

112.7

112.5

112.4

112.1

111.5

111.4

111.5

111.7

111.9

112.1

112.1

31.2

31.3

31.4

31.4

31.5

31.6

31.5

31.6

31.7

31.8

31.9

32.0

32.1

8,140.2

8,177.3

8,234.8

8,289.1

8,342.7

8,391.2

8,446.4

8,495.9

8,551.8

8,601.5

8,647.3

8,691.2

8,727.2

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.0

6.0

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

Construction

468.1

473.7

479.3

486.5

493.9

501.0

509.4

516.0

522.1

528.1

534.4

540.6

546.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

277.4

279.5

281.4

283.2

284.8

286.8

287.9

288.7

289.6

291.1

292.4

293.7

294.6

Wholesale Trade

342.3

344.0

346.7

348.9

350.3

351.9

353.9

355.5

357.2

359.1

361.0

362.8

365.5

1,118.5

1,119.6

1,121.1

1,120.4

1,123.6

1,124.6

1,126.3

1,126.3

1,130.7

1,133.8

1,137.4

1,139.8

1,141.9

133.5

133.7

133.3

133.8

133.9

134.4

134.1

134.3

134.4

134.5

134.8

134.9

135.0

1,308.7

1,320.5

1,348.2

1,381.9

1,411.3

1,435.9

1,461.6

1,488.2

1,515.7

1,533.9

1,547.5

1,560.8

1,566.7

Admin. & Support

669.2

675.5

697.7

726.1

749.7

768.0

786.6

806.1

825.6

836.1

842.3

849.1

848.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

538.4

542.9

548.1

553.4

559.2

565.0

571.8

578.6

586.6

594.0

601.1

607.5

613.3

Mgmt. of Co.

101.1

102.1

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.9

103.2

103.5

103.6

103.8

104.0

104.2

104.6

Financial Activities

565.4

568.9

573.3

576.9

580.5

583.2

586.2

588.8

591.1

593.5

595.7

598.5

600.8

Real Estate & Rent

185.5

186.2

186.7

187.3

188.0

188.7

189.6

190.4

191.2

192.1

193.1

194.3

195.4

Fin. & Insurance

379.9

382.7

386.6

389.6

392.6

394.6

396.6

398.3

399.8

401.4

402.6

404.2

405.4

1,269.8

1,273.8

1,281.2

1,282.7

1,283.9

1,286.5

1,290.4

1,293.1

1,296.4

1,301.4

1,306.3

1,311.9

1,318.9

163.8

164.4

164.0

163.0

162.2

161.9

161.9

161.8

161.5

161.3

161.2

161.1

161.2

Health Services

1,106.0

1,109.4

1,117.2

1,119.7

1,121.7

1,124.7

1,128.5

1,131.3

1,134.9

1,140.1

1,145.1

1,150.9

1,157.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1,206.1

1,210.7

1,215.5

1,218.7

1,222.0

1,226.4

1,231.6

1,235.8

1,240.6

1,246.8

1,253.6

1,259.0

1,264.6

343.2

345.0

346.2

346.9

347.5

347.8

348.5

349.1

349.7

350.0

350.5

350.8

352.2

1,101.3

1,102.0

1,102.6

1,103.2

1,105.0

1,106.8

1,110.4

1,114.1

1,118.5

1,123.4

1,128.1

1,132.6

1,135.0

Federal Gov't.

138.9

137.0

135.4

133.7

133.0

132.3

131.5

130.7

130.4

130.1

129.8

129.5

127.9

State & Local Gov't

962.4

965.0

967.3

969.5

972.0

974.5

978.9

983.4

988.1

993.3

998.3

1,003.1

1,007.1

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

20

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,396.3

7,582.3

7,824.6

8,095.7

8,352.7

8,572.3

8,785.1

8,993.3

9,171.8

Manufacturing

317.5

322.4

331.9

342.7

354.2

362.0

366.1

370.4

374.0

Durable Goods

210.0

215.2

223.3

232.7

242.1

249.2

254.2

258.6

261.9

8.8

10.4

11.3

12.6

13.6

14.3

14.8

15.9

17.0

Computer & Electronics

42.5

41.0

40.7

41.3

42.1

43.2

43.8

43.4

43.0

Transportation Equipment

35.4

36.4

37.5

39.3

39.7

40.3

40.6

40.9

42.0

107.5

107.3

108.6

110.0

112.1

112.8

111.8

111.8

112.1

29.2

29.5

29.8

30.2

30.8

31.3

31.5

31.8

32.1

7,078.9

7,259.9

7,492.7

7,753.0

7,998.5

8,210.3

8,419.0

8,623.0

8,797.8

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

Construction

342.0

365.9

397.3

428.8

454.8

476.9

505.1

531.3

555.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

240.5

247.0

254.9

265.4

273.5

280.4

287.0

291.7

296.0

Wholesale Trade

317.9

320.9

327.5

334.8

340.6

345.5

352.9

360.0

368.4

Retail Trade

978.3

1,004.8

1,043.1

1,081.4

1,104.5

1,119.9

1,125.2

1,135.4

1,145.0

Information

133.6

134.1

136.1

135.8

133.7

133.6

134.2

134.7

135.5

1,074.4

1,117.6

1,164.8

1,223.6

1,275.6

1,339.8

1,449.3

1,539.5

1,583.1

Admin. & Support

538.2

559.2

585.5

619.4

651.7

692.1

777.6

838.3

855.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

450.8

467.2

485.1

507.4

524.6

545.7

568.6

597.3

622.5

85.4

91.2

94.2

96.8

99.3

102.0

103.0

103.9

105.3

Financial Activities

499.4

512.7

521.2

535.0

553.0

571.1

584.7

594.7

604.5

Real Estate & Rent

160.0

165.5

171.0

177.5

182.4

186.4

189.2

192.7

197.1

Fin. & Insurance

339.4

347.2

350.3

357.5

370.6

384.7

395.5

402.0

407.4

1,109.2

1,128.3

1,159.2

1,199.3

1,245.1

1,276.9

1,288.5

1,304.0

1,328.5

Education Services

139.5

142.5

147.6

152.4

161.0

163.8

161.9

161.3

161.3

Health Services

969.8

985.8

1,011.7

1,046.8

1,084.1

1,113.1

1,126.6

1,142.7

1,167.2

Leisure & Hospitality

997.5

1,037.6

1,085.5

1,130.9

1,178.2

1,212.8

1,229.0

1,250.0

1,274.1

Other Services

301.5

309.2

323.2

331.2

338.1

345.3

348.2

350.2

353.5

1,078.9

1,076.0

1,074.3

1,081.0

1,095.4

1,102.3

1,109.1

1,125.6

1,147.8

Federal Gov't.

132.7

132.0

131.3

133.9

137.3

136.3

131.9

130.0

135.6

State & Local Gov't

946.2

943.9

943.0

947.2

958.1

966.0

977.2

995.7

1,012.2

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

Personal Income

969.2

982.5

996.6

1011.0

1027.3

1046.1

1065.1

Wages & Salaries

443.2

449.5

456.8

463.8

471.4

479.1

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

1084.6

1108.0

1128.0

1147.9

1167.2

1187.6

487.2

495.2

503.7

511.8

519.7

527.7

535.5

Billions Current Dollars

Other Labor Income

95.0

95.9

96.8

97.8

98.8

99.6

100.6

101.6

103.2

104.4

105.6

106.8

108.4

Nonfarm

55.2

56.2

57.4

58.4

59.6

60.4

61.2

62.4

63.6

64.6

65.5

66.4

67.3

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

245.0

249.0

253.1

257.6

261.5

269.3

276.7

284.8

293.4

302.0

310.6

318.7

325.7

Transfer Payments

Farm

194.6

196.7

198.7

201.0

205.3

207.9

210.6

213.0

218.1

220.4

222.8

225.3

230.0

Social Insurance

68.4

69.4

70.7

72.0

73.5

74.5

75.7

76.8

78.5

79.6

80.8

82.0

83.8

Personal Income

874.7

883.6

893.1

903.1

914.7

927.0

939.5

952.6

968.3

980.9

993.1

1004.5

1016.3

Wages & Salaries

400.0

404.3

409.3

414.3

419.7

424.5

429.8

434.9

440.2

445.1

449.6

454.1

458.3

Billions 2009 $

Other Labor Income

85.7

86.2

86.8

87.3

87.9

88.2

88.7

89.2

90.2

90.8

91.4

91.9

92.8

Nonfarm

49.9

50.6

51.5

52.2

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.8

55.6

56.2

56.7

57.1

57.6

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

Farm Property Income

221.1

224.0

226.8

230.1

232.8

238.6

244.1

250.2

256.4

262.6

268.7

274.2

278.7

Transfer Payments

175.6

176.9

178.1

179.5

182.8

184.3

185.8

187.0

190.6

191.7

192.8

193.9

196.9

61.7

62.4

63.4

64.3

65.5

66.1

66.7

67.5

68.6

69.2

69.9

70.6

71.7

1386.0

1399.4

1424.8

1434.6

1438.8

1439.2

1449.4

1463.6

1496.7

1520.0

1534.1

1554.2

1573.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

339.9

343.2

347.5

352.5

358.5

364.1

370.4

377.0

385.0

392.8

400.1

408.2

416.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

306.8

308.6

311.4

314.8

319.2

322.7

326.8

331.1

336.4

341.5

346.1

351.3

356.6

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

*Quarterly at an annual rate

22

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

793.1

798.9

853.3

900.6

942.2

989.8

1055.8

1137.8

1215.1

Wages & Salaries

346.3

358.4

378.7

403.9

428.2

453.3

483.2

515.7

548.1

Other Labor Income

78.2

81.3

82.8

88.5

92.6

96.4

100.1

105.0

110.2

Nonfarm

39.6

38.7

45.4

50.6

53.2

56.8

60.9

65.0

68.6

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.8

1.6

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

Property Income

217.2

211.7

230.6

235.3

238.8

251.2

273.1

306.2

335.0

Transfer Payments

156.3

161.3

171.4

180.3

190.6

197.8

209.2

221.7

234.3

48.8

56.8

60.1

63.3

66.6

70.1

75.1

80.2

85.5

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

755.3

750.8

789.3

830.2

859.5

888.6

933.4

986.7

1031.3

Wages & Salaries

329.8

336.8

350.3

372.3

390.6

407.0

427.2

447.2

465.2

Other Labor Income

74.5

76.4

76.6

81.6

84.4

86.5

88.5

91.1

93.5

Nonfarm

37.7

36.4

42.0

46.6

48.6

51.0

53.9

56.4

58.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.7

1.5

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.3

Property Income

206.8

199.0

213.3

216.9

217.9

225.5

241.4

265.5

284.3

Transfer Payments

148.8

151.5

158.5

166.2

173.9

177.5

185.0

192.2

198.8

46.5

53.4

55.6

58.3

60.7

62.9

66.4

69.6

72.6

1006.9

1101.0

1224.2

1336.4

1362.6

1411.2

1447.7

1526.2

1596.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

279.6

294.5

310.6

320.1

330.3

345.8

367.5

396.5

429.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

266.3

276.7

287.3

295.1

301.4

310.4

324.9

343.8

364.2

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

24

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Financial Activities Employment 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

26

(Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Gross State Product

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

7.0%

250.0

6.0%

200.0 150.0

5.0%

100.0

4.0%

50.0 0.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3.0%

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

28

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Manufacturing Employment 440.0

(Thousands)

420.0 400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0 320.0 300.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

30

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Population (Thousands)

23000.0 22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0

(Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

5% 0% -5% -10%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1020.0 1000.0 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 900.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1900.0 1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

32

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


F lo r i d a N e w s S umma r ies

Ridesharing bill could pick up speed this year in Legislature • There is renewed optimism for a proposal that would prevent local governments from regulating app-based transportation services, such as Uber and Lyft. • The bill has failed in the past two legislative sessions, but optimism for the bill increased when 20 new Senators were elected. • The bill would create statewide rules for “transportation network companies” and set insurance and background-check requirements for drivers. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, January 13, 2017 Wall Street Is Hiring…in Florida • Jacksonville could be experiencing some positive effects from near shoring, which is a Wall Street trend of banks moving their operations away from the expensive financial centers to cheaper options, such as Jacksonville and North Carolina. • Jacksonville has quietly grown into Deutsche Bank’s second-largest campus in the U.S., increasing their employee count from 1,400 in 2013 to 2,000 in 2016. • The alluring prices can be seen by comparing the office space in Jacksonville, which can be leased for a quarter of the rate of similar New York space, and employees can be paid about 30 percent less on average.

• Governor Scott’s proposed budget increase was challenged by Florida’s House Speaker Richard Corcoran, R-Land O’Lakes, who says the budget should be $1 billion less than what was proposed. • Gov. Scott plans to lower rates for Medicaid, which is the costliest program in the budget, making up about one-third of taxpayers’ annual expense. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 31, 2017 Florida House takes first steps toward killing Visit Florida, Enterprise Florida • Republicans and House Speaker Richard Corcoran passed a ten-to-five vote that would block counties from spending local hotel tax money on stadiums for sports franchises and end tax credits for filmmakers. • The vote was passed based on perceptions of corporate welfare, including Enterprise Florida overspending on management and travel expenses. Visit Florida came under fire for spending more than $5 million on advertisements featuring Pitbull. • The bill still has to be passed in the Senate, and then Governor Scott is given a chance to veto the bill. Source: Miami Herald, February 9, 2017 Florida welcomed nearly 113 million tourists in 2016

Source: The Compliance Exchange, January 25, 2017

• Despite enduring a hurricane, the Zika crisis, and one of the worst shootings in U.S. history, Florida attracted 112.8 million tourists during 2016.

Gov. Scott proposes $1.1 billion spending increase for state budget

• This is the sixth consecutive record-breaking year for Florida, topping 2015’s record of 106.6 million.

• Governor Rick Scott proposed an $83.5 billion budget, which included an $815 million increase in state and local funding for education, $85 million in economic incentive programs for corporations, and $76 million for Visit Florida.

• Governor Scott stated that tourism jobs in the state hit a record high of 1.4 million jobs in 2016 and tourists spent an estimated $109 billion. Source: Orlando Sentinel, February 16, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


Deltona – Day tona B each – O r mon d B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia County and Flagler County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year, such as Bike Week Race Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 6.1 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $37,800. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Population growth will average 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 16,602.43 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 600,756 as of July 1, 2013 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 2293,497 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,788 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Halifax Health – 4,709

• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256 • County of Volusia – 3,341

• Daytona State College – 1,568

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.9 percent each year. Unemployment will average 4.7 percent.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.8 percent annually. The Construction and Mining sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 4.5 percent annually. The Financial and Leisure sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. The Information sector is expected to experience a decline, with a growth rate of -0.2 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Volusia, Flagler home prices keep climbing

• The number of existing homes sold in Volusia and Flagler Counties fell last December compared to December 2015. The median price of homes sold in December 2016 rose year-over-year, reaching its highest point since before the Great Recession.

• In Volusia County, homes sold totaled 724, marking a 7.5% decrease since December 2015’s figure of 783. Median price increased by 7.7% year-over-year, rising from $157,700 in December 2015 to $169,900 in December 2016. • In Flagler County, homes sold fell 3.8% year over year with a total of 201 sold in December 2016. Median price rose from $184,900 in December

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

2015 to $231,000 in December 2016, which is a 24.9% year-over-year increase. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, January 24, 2017 Passenger traffic soars to 20-year high at Daytona airport

• Daytona Beach International Airport continues to see an increase in passengers. This is the 14th month in a row increases occurred when compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. • December 2016 had a total of 56,349 people pass the gates in either arrivals or departures, which is a 15.9% increase compared to December 2015.

• Growth in the number of travelers using the airport is attributable to a number of things, most notably the recent addition of daily flights between New York and Daytona by JetBlue Airways. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, January 18, 2017 Influx of race fans boosts Daytona-area hotels

• Speedweeks and the Daytona 500 have brought more business to hotels in Daytona, as measured by their average daily room rate.

• Some area hotels, such as the Plaza Resort & Spa in Daytona Beach, could not sell out every room due to damage from Hurricane Matthew, which left some rooms unavailable for booking. • Many hotels have still seen increases in the average daily room rate compared to last year. Near-capacity was reached for a few area hotels, with the largest hotel in the area recording sell-out dates that correspond with last year’s records.

proposed in order to raise funds for beach restoration. Matt Dunn, executive director of the Flagler County Tourist Development Office, expects that $1.8 million could be added to the dune replenishment treasury in about two years’ time.

• Changes in the distribution of funds of the Flagler County Tourist Development Office are also being considered. All funds for capital projects and a small percentage of promotions funding would be allocated to beach restoration. Capital project funds would be restored in the next two years. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, February 20, 2017 Bike Week or Bust?

• Some businesses in the Deltona area are still recovering from Hurricane Matthew, which could impact this year’s Bike Week. It is usually estimated that 500,000 bike riders are in attendance.

• Biketoberfest of 2016 was greatly impacted in terms of attendance due to damage from Hurricane Matthew; however, Speedweeks that took place last month has brought a great amount of business for the local business owners and hotels. Also, businesses that were closed before are able to reopen in time for Bike Week. • Locals are already noticing early attendees in the area. Brigit Duncan, owner of Brigit’s Custom Works, believes that those who could not attend Biketoberfest this past fall might add to the number of attendees for Bike Week. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 4, 2017

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, February 27, 2017 Flagler inches toward 1 percent bump in tourism tax • An extra penny increase to the bed tax in Flagler County was unanimously approved by Flagler’s Tourist Development Council and will be put before the County Commission on March 6. • This penny increase in the bed tax has been

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


Deltona – Day tona B each – O r mon d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

36

1.6

15000.0

210.0

160.0

1.4

16000.0

13000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 220.0

1.2

17000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

0.8

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

21.0 2.8 6.6 14.4 20.0 1.0 35.3 33.6 37.3 2.9

21.4 1.7 6.7 14.7 20.1 0.3 35.5 33.4 37.5 0.5

22.5 5.4 7.1 15.4 20.8 3.7 36.8 34.1 38.6 2.7

23.8 5.7 7.6 16.3 22.0 5.4 38.2 35.2 39.9 3.4

24.9 4.6 8.1 16.8 22.7 3.5 39.2 35.7 41.0 2.9

26.1 4.6 8.6 17.5 23.4 2.9 40.3 36.2 42.3 3.1

27.6 6.1 9.1 18.5 24.4 4.5 42.1 37.2 44.1 4.3

29.6 7.2 9.7 20.0 25.7 5.2 44.3 38.4 46.2 4.6

31.5 6.3 10.3 21.2 26.7 4.0 46.3 39.3 48.3 4.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 175.2 177.9 182.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.6 2.5 Manufacturing 9.3 9.9 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 5.8 6.2 Nonmanufacturing 165.9 168.0 171.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.3 2.2 Construction & Mining 8.5 9.3 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 9.8 8.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.8 33.7 34.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -0.2 2.3 Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.6 4.5 Retail Trade 26.8 27.0 27.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.2 2.3 Information 2.9 2.8 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -5.1 -5.2 Financial Activities 8.4 8.5 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 1.2 -0.8 Prof & Business Services 18.5 19.4 20.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.7 4.0 Educ & Health Services 34.9 35.6 36.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.9 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 25.9 26.6 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.5 4.9 Other Services 8.3 8.3 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -0.1 0.2 Federal Government 1.3 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.2 -1.9 2.0 State & Local Government 23.2 22.6 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -3.0 -1.9

188.1 3.2 10.8 3.5 177.3 3.2 11.1 9.9 35.8 3.8 4.7 28.7 2.4 2.5 -2.9 8.7 3.2 21.4 6.1 36.8 1.4 29.1 4.5 8.3 -0.4 1.3 1.3 22.1 -0.1

195.8 4.1 11.4 4.9 184.5 4.1 11.5 3.1 38.3 6.8 4.8 31.0 2.5 2.4 -3.9 8.9 2.1 23.9 11.6 38.2 3.6 29.3 0.8 8.4 1.2 1.3 2.6 22.3 0.7

201.0 2.6 11.6 1.7 189.4 2.7 12.0 4.4 39.6 3.4 5.0 31.8 2.5 2.4 -2.2 9.1 2.7 25.1 5.1 38.7 1.6 30.2 2.9 8.7 2.8 1.3 0.0 22.4 0.4

204.9 1.9 11.7 1.3 193.2 2.0 12.6 5.1 40.0 1.0 5.1 31.8 2.6 2.4 0.4 9.3 1.9 26.9 7.1 39.1 0.9 30.4 0.9 8.7 0.3 1.3 -3.1 22.5 0.8

208.5 1.8 11.9 1.3 196.6 1.8 13.2 4.6 40.2 0.6 5.3 32.0 2.6 2.4 0.3 9.4 1.4 28.2 5.0 39.6 1.2 30.8 1.2 8.7 0.2 1.3 -1.3 22.9 1.5

211.5 1.5 12.0 1.1 199.5 1.5 13.7 4.0 40.2 0.1 5.4 32.2 2.7 2.4 0.6 9.5 1.3 28.8 2.1 40.4 2.0 31.2 1.3 8.7 0.4 1.4 9.2 23.2 1.2

623.9 2.0 282.8 0.4 5.8 2085.4 1929.7 156.0

636.0 1.9 289.6 2.4 5.1 2132.4 1670.8 462.0

646.9 1.7 299.7 3.5 5.1 4343.2 2589.3 1754.0

657.3 1.6 308.6 3.0 4.7 5122.5 3551.6 1571.0

668.6 1.7 315.9 2.4 4.5 5573.0 4048.0 1525.0

680.1 1.7 323.3 2.4 4.4 6120.9 4483.0 1638.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

596.3 0.7 279.7 0.0 9.6 1010.1 993.2 17.0

602.3 1.0 279.9 0.1 8.2 1895.0 1655.3 240.0

611.6 1.5 281.7 0.6 6.9 1931.2 1763.1 168.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


Deltona – Day tona B each – O r mon d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.6 4.6 8.4 17.2

25.9 4.4 8.5 17.4

26.2 4.6 8.6 17.6

26.6 4.9 8.7 17.8

26.9 5.4 8.9 18.1

27.4 5.9 9 18.4

27.9 6.3 9.2 18.7

28.3 6.7 9.3 19

28.9 7.3 9.5 19.4

29.4 7.3 9.6 19.8

29.9 7.2 9.8 20.1

30.4 7.1 9.9 20.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 2.8

23.3 2.7

23.5 2.9

23.7 3.4

24 4

24.3 4.3

24.6 4.7

24.9 4.9

25.3 5.3

25.6 5.2

25.9 5.2

26.1 5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.8 35.9

40.1 36.1

40.4 36.2

40.8 36.4

41.3 36.7

41.8 37

42.3 37.3

42.8 37.6

43.5 38

44.1 38.3

44.6 38.6

45.1 38.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.7 3.1

42.1 2.7

42.5 3

42.9 3.6

43.4 4.1

43.9 4.2

44.4 4.4

44.9 4.6

45.4 4.6

45.9 4.7

46.5 4.6

47 4.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

199.6 3.6

200.4 3

201.5 2.1

202.4 1.9

203.4 1.9

204.4 2

205.4 1.9

206.3 1.9

207.2 1.9

208.1 1.8

208.9 1.7

209.7 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 2.5

11.5 1.7

11.6 1

11.6 1.6

11.7 1.6

11.7 1.5

11.7 1

11.7 1.1

11.8 0.9

11.8 1.1

11.9 1.6

11.9 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

188.1 3.7

188.9 3

190 2.2

190.8 1.9

191.7 1.9

192.7 2

193.7 2

194.6 2

195.4 1.9

196.3 1.9

197 1.7

197.7 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 5.1

11.9 4.3

12 3.4

12.2 4.8

12.3 4.9

12.5 4.7

12.7 5.3

12.8 5.3

13 5.2

13.1 4.8

13.2 4.2

13.3 4.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

39.4 5.1

39.5 4.2

39.6 3.2

39.7 1.3

39.8 1

39.9 1

40 1

40.1 0.9

40.1 0.8

40.2 0.6

40.2 0.5

40.2 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 31.9 2.5

5 31.8 2.5

5.1 31.8 2.5

5.1 31.8 2.6

5.1 31.8 2.6

5.1 31.8 2.6

5.2 31.9 2.6

5.2 31.8 2.6

5.2 31.9 2.6

5.2 32 2.6

5.3 32.1 2.6

5.3 32.1 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 -4

2.4 -2.7

2.4 -2.1

2.4 0.2

2.4 0.4

2.4 0.5

2.4 0.5

2.4 0.3

2.4 0.4

2.4 0.1

2.4 0.4

2.4 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9 2.3

9.1 2.7

9.1 3

9.2 2.7

9.2 2.1

9.3 2

9.3 1.7

9.3 1.6

9.4 1.6

9.4 1.4

9.4 1.2

9.4 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 7.7

24.8 5.2

25.2 2.5

25.8 5.3

26.3 6.9

26.7 7.7

27.1 7.3

27.5 6.5

27.9 6.1

28.1 5.5

28.3 4.5

28.5 3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

38.5 2.7

38.7 1.4

38.9 0.8

38.9 1.3

38.9 1

39 1

39.2 0.8

39.3 0.9

39.4 1.1

39.5 1.2

39.7 1.2

39.8 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 3.3

30.2 3.7

30.2 3.4

30.3 1.1

30.3 0.7

30.4 0.8

30.5 0.9

30.6 1

30.6 1.1

30.8 1.2

30.9 1.2

31 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 3.1

8.7 4.5

8.7 2.7

8.7 0.9

8.7 0.5

8.7 0.2

8.7 0.2

8.7 0.2

8.7 0.3

8.7 0.3

8.7 0.1

8.7 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 3.5

1.4 3.5

1.3 -2.9

1.3 -3.9

1.3 -4.2

1.3 -3.4

1.3 -2.8

1.3 -2.1

1.2 -5.3

1.3 -2.6

1.3 0.1

1.3 2.8

22.3 0.4

22.4 0.4

22.4 0.4

22.4 0.6

22.5 0.6

22.5 0.6

22.6 0.9

22.7 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.6

22.9 1.6

23 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

643.1 1.8

645.7 1.8

648.2 1.7

650.7 1.6

653.1 1.6

655.8 1.6

658.6 1.6

661.5 1.6

664.3 1.7

667.1 1.7

670 1.7

672.9 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

296.2 3.2

298.3 3.9

301 3.9

303.4 3.1

305.5 3.1

307.6 3.1

309.6 2.8

311.6 2.7

313.3 2.6

315.1 2.4

316.7 2.3

318.4 2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

5.3

5.2

5

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

3651 2059 1592

4222 2442 1780

4573 2779 1794

4927 3078 1849

5026 3286 1740

5087 3457 1630

5149 3643 1506

5229 3821 1408

5366 3895 1470

5505 3979 1527

5650 4102 1548

5771 4216 1555

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


Gaines v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the central-north portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 6.0 percent growth, the third lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $39,900. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at $52,300. Population growth will be the second lowest of the studied areas at 1.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 11,140.23 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.0 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 3.6 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.1 percent annually. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent. The Federal Government sector and the Trade, Transportation, and Utility sector will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -1.5 and -0.2 percent, respectively.

• City of Gainesville – 2,270

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100

Company’s investor pitch targets kidney stone research

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 142,342 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,767 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 2,160 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

• Captozyme, a Gainesville biotechnology company, was one of 20 companies selected to present at the 2017 Florida Venture Capital Conference in Orlando. The conference will give Captozyme the opportunity to talk and connect with hundreds of investors from all over the world. • Captozyme Inc. started in 2009 and develops products designed to remove and break down oxalate from its consumer’s bodies. • This conference could be a vital part of what happens in the future for Captozyme, as they

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


Gainesville

continue to progress and see growth in the biotechnological industry. Source: Gainesville Sun, January 25, 2017 The way to serve school lunch? Board buys $154K food truck • The Alachua County School Board will soon be owners of a food truck after a bid was approved to buy a custom food truck. The school is hoping to take advantage of the current food truck trend and make buying school lunch more appealing to students.

• The food truck is scheduled to be built by the end of April. The money to finance the bid will come out of the district’s food service and is worth $154,865. • The plan is that the food truck will go to a different high school different days during lunch. The school board is also looking into taking the truck to middle schools or selling food after school. It will sell free or reduced-priced lunches to eligible students. Source: Gainesville Sun, February 23, 2017 P.F. Chang’s to anchor Butler Town Center

• Butler Town Center is off of Archer Road in Gainesville. It is a 5,600-square-foot plaza that is estimated to open in 2018.

• P.F. Chang’s is among the restaurants and shops that will anchor in the center. There are more than 200 P.F. Chang’s locations throughout the United States and they have a “Farm to Wok” philosophy on food. Whole Foods Market is also set to join the restaurant in the plaza and is expected to open in winter 2017. • The Butler Town Center is going to be an urban center featuring luxury apartments and food and shops, designed in a way to make people want to spend time there. Source: Gainesville Sun, February 16, 2017

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

Groups differ on level of clarity for biomass deal

• Gainesville’s city commission could potentially own a biomass plant after they submit a $750 million proposal to the plant’s president, Jim Gordon. If the deal goes through and the initial offer is accepted, it could save the city about $650 million. • City residents and commissioners agree they need transparency during this process but are struggling to agree on what exactly that means. • At a meeting between commissioners and citizens, the general manager for Gainesville Regional Utilities, Ed Bielarski, presented how the city would save money if they bought the plant and his memorandum of understanding (MOU) draft he had emailed to Jim Gordon.

Source: Gainesville Sun, March 3, 2017 Alachua County leads the way in solar power

• Alachua County is leading the way in Florida solar. Gainesville Regional Utilities has a higher cost per kilowatt hour than most counties in Florida, so it makes sense why residents would turn to solar power.

• Pure Energy Solar President Wayne Irwin said “his company has been hiring more, keeping up with a steady increase in demand.” Irwin has noticed a greater demand than normal for solar from businesses. • The Solar Guys, a solar company in Gainesville, will be at the North Central Florida Home & Garden Show along with other solar companies to share information about solar and its future. Source: Gainesville Sun, March 3, 2017


Gaines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

12000.0

8.0%

10500.0 10000.0

6.0%

9500.0

4.0%

9000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11500.0 11000.0

145.0

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Gainesville Payroll Employment

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

9.7 0.5 5.4 4.3 9.3 -1.3 36.2 34.5 42.1 1.8

9.8 1.1 5.6 4.3 9.2 -0.2 36.4 34.2 43.1 2.2

10.4 6.1 5.8 4.6 9.7 4.5 38.2 35.3 44.3 2.9

11.0 5.2 6.1 4.9 10.1 4.9 39.6 36.5 45.3 2.3

11.4 4.1 6.4 5.0 10.4 3.0 40.7 37.1 46.6 2.8

12.0 4.9 6.8 5.2 10.8 3.3 42.2 37.9 49.0 5.1

12.7 6.0 7.2 5.6 11.2 4.4 44.3 39.2 51.1 4.4

13.6 6.9 7.6 6.0 11.8 4.8 46.9 40.7 53.4 4.4

14.4 6.1 8.0 6.4 12.2 3.8 49.4 41.9 55.7 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 128.0 128.9 131.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.7 1.7 Manufacturing 4.4 4.4 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.2 -3.5 Nonmanufacturing 123.6 124.5 126.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.7 1.9 Construction & Mining 4.3 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.5 2.6 0.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.1 18.3 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.9 2.6 Wholesale Trade 2.5 2.7 2.8 Retail Trade 13.3 13.2 13.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.5 2.6 Information 1.4 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 1.1 0.6 Financial Activities 6.3 6.2 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 -2.0 0.9 Prof & Business Services 11.3 11.4 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 1.3 8.2 Educ & Health Services 22.8 23.1 23.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 1.1 2.7 Leisure & Hospitality 13.4 13.8 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 2.8 0.3 Other Services 4.1 4.1 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 0.4 3.7 Federal Government 4.4 4.4 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 0.8 1.6 State & Local Government 37.5 37.4 37.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.3 0.0

134.4 2.5 4.4 3.9 130.0 2.5 4.7 7.8 19.5 4.0 2.9 13.9 2.7 1.5 1.7 6.5 3.4 12.8 4.0 24.1 1.6 14.3 3.6 4.5 7.3 4.6 2.4 37.4 0.0

137.0 1.9 4.5 3.0 132.4 1.9 4.8 1.9 19.7 0.7 2.8 14.0 2.8 1.5 0.0 6.6 1.3 13.2 3.0 25.2 4.7 14.8 2.8 4.6 2.0 4.7 1.8 37.4 0.0

138.0 0.7 4.6 0.3 133.4 0.8 5.0 4.3 19.5 -1.0 2.8 13.8 2.9 1.5 1.0 6.6 1.0 13.7 3.4 25.6 1.4 14.6 -1.3 4.8 2.8 4.6 -1.9 37.6 0.6

139.6 1.2 4.6 1.4 135.0 1.2 5.3 4.4 19.6 0.5 2.8 13.7 2.9 1.5 0.0 6.7 1.5 14.6 6.8 25.7 0.3 14.7 0.5 4.8 0.3 4.4 -3.8 37.8 0.6

141.2 1.2 4.7 1.4 136.5 1.2 5.4 3.7 19.6 0.0 2.8 13.7 2.9 1.5 -0.1 6.8 0.9 15.2 4.5 25.8 0.6 14.8 0.9 4.8 0.0 4.3 -2.0 38.3 1.2

142.6 1.0 4.7 1.3 137.9 1.0 5.6 3.0 19.5 -0.4 2.9 13.7 2.9 1.5 -0.1 6.8 0.6 15.5 1.8 26.2 1.3 15.0 1.2 4.8 0.5 4.4 1.7 38.6 0.9

277.3 1.3 136.6 0.2 4.6 1080.1 645.0 435.0

281.2 1.4 137.8 0.9 4.3 952.1 511.3 441.0

284.4 1.1 138.0 0.1 4.2 1093.6 598.5 495.0

287.2 1.0 138.5 0.4 3.7 1258.0 704.3 554.0

289.7 0.9 138.7 0.2 3.3 1409.1 780.7 628.0

292.2 0.8 139.4 0.5 3.1 1538.7 860.0 679.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

268.6 0.7 136.8 0.7 6.8 576.5 400.1 176.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

270.5 0.7 136.2 -0.4 5.8 758.6 548.3 210.0

273.7 1.2 136.4 0.2 5.3 744.5 525.6 219.0


Gaines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.8 4.8 6.6 5.1

11.9 4.6 6.7 5.2

12.1 5 6.8 5.2

12.2 5.4 6.9 5.3

12.4 5.4 7 5.4

12.6 5.8 7.1 5.5

12.8 6.1 7.2 5.6

13 6.5 7.3 5.7

13.3 7 7.4 5.9

13.5 6.9 7.5 6

13.7 6.8 7.6 6.1

13.9 6.7 7.7 6.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 3

10.7 2.9

10.8 3.3

10.9 3.9

11.1 4

11.2 4.3

11.3 4.5

11.4 4.7

11.6 5

11.7 4.9

11.8 4.8

12 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

41.6 37.5

42 37.8

42.4 38

42.9 38.3

43.4 38.6

44 39

44.6 39.3

45.2 39.7

46 40.2

46.6 40.5

47.2 40.9

47.8 41.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.2 5.1

48.7 4.8

49.2 5.4

49.8 4.9

50.3 4.4

50.8 4.4

51.4 4.4

52 4.4

52.5 4.5

53.1 4.4

53.7 4.4

54.2 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

137.4 0.9

137.7 0.6

138.2 0.3

138.6 1.2

139 1.1

139.4 1.2

139.8 1.2

140.2 1.2

140.7 1.2

141.1 1.2

141.4 1.1

141.7 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 0.2

4.6 -0.5

4.6 -0.4

4.6 1.7

4.6 1.7

4.6 1.6

4.6 1.1

4.6 1.2

4.7 1

4.7 1.2

4.7 1.7

4.7 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

132.9 0.9

133.2 0.7

133.6 0.3

134 1.1

134.4 1.1

134.8 1.2

135.2 1.2

135.6 1.2

136 1.3

136.4 1.2

136.7 1.1

137 1.1

4.9 3.5

5 5.6

5.1 3.6

5.1 4.4

5.2 4.3

5.2 4.1

5.3 4.7

5.3 4.5

5.4 4.4

5.4 3.9

5.5 3.3

5.5 3.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 -1.6

19.5 -1.7

19.5 -1.4

19.5 0.8

19.5 0.5

19.6 0.5

19.6 0.4

19.6 0.4

19.6 0.1

19.6 0

19.6 -0.1

19.5 -0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 13.8 2.9

2.7 13.8 2.9

2.8 13.8 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 1.8

1.5 1.7

1.5 0.5

1.5 -0.1

1.5 0

1.5 0.1

1.5 0.1

1.5 -0.1

1.5 -0.1

1.5 -0.3

1.5 0

1.5 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 0

6.6 0.9

6.7 0.9

6.7 2.4

6.7 1.7

6.7 1.6

6.7 1.3

6.8 1.2

6.8 1.2

6.8 0.9

6.8 0.7

6.8 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 2.7

13.5 2.7

13.7 3.2

14 5.1

14.3 6.6

14.5 7.4

14.7 6.9

14.9 6.1

15.1 5.7

15.2 5

15.3 4.1

15.4 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 2.1

25.6 1.9

25.7 0.9

25.6 0.7

25.6 0.4

25.7 0.4

25.7 0.2

25.7 0.3

25.8 0.5

25.8 0.6

25.9 0.6

25.9 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 -1.2

14.6 -2.8

14.6 -1.6

14.6 0.7

14.6 0.4

14.6 0.5

14.7 0.6

14.7 0.7

14.7 0.8

14.8 0.9

14.8 0.9

14.8 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 4

4.7 3.1

4.8 2.9

4.8 1.1

4.8 0.7

4.8 0.3

4.8 0.1

4.8 0.1

4.8 0.1

4.8 0.1

4.8 -0.1

4.8 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 0.9

4.6 -0.3

4.5 -3.7

4.5 -4.5

4.5 -4.9

4.4 -4

4.4 -3.5

4.4 -2.8

4.4 -2

4.3 -2

4.3 -2

4.3 -1.9

37.5 1

37.6 0.9

37.6 0.2

37.7 0.5

37.7 0.5

37.8 0.4

37.9 0.6

38 0.8

38.1 1

38.2 1.3

38.3 1.3

38.5 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

283.2 1.2

284 1.1

284.8 1.1

285.5 1.1

286.2 1.1

286.8 1

287.5 1

288.2 0.9

288.8 0.9

289.4 0.9

290 0.9

290.7 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

137.8 -0.1

137.8 0.2

138.1 0.3

138.3 0.2

138.3 0.4

138.4 0.5

138.5 0.3

138.6 0.3

138.6 0.2

138.7 0.2

138.7 0.2

138.8 0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

1042 556 487

1096 593 504

1101 612 489

1136 634 502

1203 667 536

1238 691 547

1270 717 552

1321 741 580

1355 753 602

1399 768 631

1430 791 640

1452 811 641

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


Jacksonville

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 6.6 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $44,700, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $57,300, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 71,534.94 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 736,550 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.2% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 37,961 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 44

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

Employment growth is expected to average 2.3 percent annually. Unemployment will average 4.1 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 5.6 percent. Following that sector is the Construction and Mining sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, and then the Leisure and Financial sectors, both with an average growth rate of 2.4 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.5 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Jacksonville shipyard gets $51 million ship maintenance contract

• The $51 million contract awarded to BAE Systems Southeast Shipyard Mayport LLC, located in Jacksonville, will include the completing, coordinating, and integrating of ship maintenance, repair, and modernization. BAE will provide the facilities and human resources to keep the USS Roosevelt maintained. • The work is scheduled to be completed by April 2018 and will be performed in Jacksonville. The contract includes other options, which could bring the cumulative value of the contract to $69.5 million.

Source: The Florida Times Union, January 20, 2017


J ackson v ille

Physician services management provider is bringing 500 jobs to Jacksonville

• Formativ Health, a spin-off created by Northwell Health and Pamplona, will provide physician management services that include insurance verification, scheduling, and billing. This will allow physicians to focus more on patient care.

• Northwell Health is a health system with over 60,000 employees and 21 hospitals. Formativ would be the one-stop-shop for patients navigating large healthcare systems. • Operations in Jacksonville for Formativ Health will begin in April and will bring 500 jobs to Jacksonville. Source: The Florida Times Union, January 17, 2017 CSX announces the reduction of 1,000 management positions

• A railroad company, CSX Corp., announced that they will be laying off 1,000 management positions, mostly in Jacksonville.

• Two other housing communities have been built by KB Home, both of which are sold out. Source: The Florida Times Union, February 11, 2017 Made in Jax: Fabtech Supply makes manufacturer out of former bank • Fabtech Supply in Jacksonville’s Southside off Philips Highway is producing thousands of metal fastenings, hinges, and levers. Fabtech is one of a few companies that offer products for industries that have metal enclosures, making them a key manufacturer. • They have an 11,000-square-foot factory that employs 12 people. Last year the company made $2.5 million in annual revenue.

• The company has seen higher demand in the last few months and plans on hiring more people, along with expanding the company. Source: The Florida Times Union, March 3, 2017

• There are a total of 2,500 management employees in Jacksonville who could be affected by the cuts. Enhanced separation benefits will be extended to employees impacted by the layoffs. • The layoffs are coming from the company’s involuntary separation program from a takeover, and the current CEO Michael Ward’s retirement from the railroad company. Source: The Florida Times Union, February 21, 2017

Housing development in the works off Sunbeam Road • A 72-acre housing development is in the works off Sunbeam Road. The developer, H. Smith Inc., paid $1 million for the land. • Housing prices will range from $200,000 to $300,000 and 129 lots will be available. The exclusive builder is Dream Finders Homes and, while the project is still in the engineering phase, construction should begin this summer.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1

80000.0

8.0%

65000.0

6.0%

60000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0

46

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0 50000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 750.0

1.6

75000.0 70000.0

2.0%

1.4

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

4.0%

1.2

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

57.3 4.1 29.8 27.5 54.6 2.3 41.5 39.5 48.7 3.3

57.9 1.0 30.5 27.4 54.4 -0.3 41.4 38.9 48.9 0.3

60.8 5.0 32.1 28.7 56.2 3.3 42.7 39.5 50.2 2.8

64.1 5.5 33.8 30.3 59.1 5.1 44.2 40.7 50.9 1.4

67.4 5.2 35.9 31.6 61.5 4.1 45.6 41.6 52.3 2.6

70.9 5.1 37.9 33.0 63.7 3.5 47.1 42.3 53.8 3.0

75.7 6.8 40.5 35.3 67.0 5.2 49.6 43.8 56.0 4.1

81.6 7.7 43.2 38.4 70.7 5.6 52.6 45.6 58.5 4.4

87.0 6.7 45.9 41.2 73.9 4.4 55.3 47.0 61.0 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 594.4 607.9 624.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.3 2.7 Manufacturing 27.9 27.8 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 -0.3 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 566.6 580.1 596.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.4 2.8 Construction & Mining 27.8 30.2 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 8.5 8.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 125.4 127.8 130.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.9 2.3 Wholesale Trade 24.7 24.7 24.0 Retail Trade 70.2 71.6 73.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.5 31.5 33.0 Information 9.2 9.2 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 -0.6 0.7 Financial Activities 60.0 61.5 60.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 2.4 -0.9 Prof & Business Services 90.9 94.0 98.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.4 4.5 Educ & Health Services 89.2 91.2 93.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.3 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 69.0 71.8 75.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 4.1 5.1 Other Services 20.3 20.6 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 1.5 5.4 Federal Government 17.3 17.0 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -1.6 -1.0 State & Local Government 57.4 56.8 56.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -0.9 0.2

648.1 3.8 29.5 5.3 618.6 3.8 35.5 8.6 135.6 3.8 24.5 76.6 34.5 9.2 0.1 61.6 1.2 101.3 3.1 97.4 4.2 80.0 6.0 22.7 4.3 17.1 1.4 58.3 2.3

672.3 3.7 30.4 3.1 641.9 3.8 38.3 8.1 139.5 2.9 25.0 78.8 35.7 9.0 -2.3 64.3 4.4 103.8 2.6 101.6 4.3 85.7 7.1 23.5 3.5 17.7 3.4 58.5 0.3

689.8 2.6 31.3 2.9 658.5 2.6 40.2 4.9 140.5 0.7 25.5 78.6 36.1 9.0 -0.5 67.3 4.7 108.0 4.0 103.8 2.2 89.9 4.9 24.1 2.7 17.3 -2.2 58.5 0.0

707.7 2.6 31.7 1.3 676.0 2.7 42.5 5.5 142.6 1.5 26.1 79.1 36.8 9.0 0.6 68.7 2.2 117.3 8.6 104.8 1.0 91.1 1.3 24.3 0.9 16.7 -3.5 59.1 1.1

724.3 2.4 32.1 1.4 692.2 2.4 44.5 4.8 143.8 0.9 26.6 79.9 37.3 9.1 0.4 69.8 1.6 125.3 6.8 106.1 1.3 92.6 1.7 24.5 0.7 16.4 -1.7 60.2 1.8

737.4 1.8 32.5 1.1 704.9 1.8 46.4 4.2 144.5 0.5 27.3 80.5 37.6 9.1 0.4 70.8 1.4 129.1 3.0 108.2 2.0 94.4 1.9 24.7 1.0 16.6 1.5 61.2 1.6

1451.2 1.9 724.9 1.0 5.2 9596.5 7341.7 2255.0

1479.2 1.9 740.4 2.1 4.6 11576.1 8984.3 2592.0

1504.0 1.7 756.9 2.2 4.6 13951.3 8145.8 5805.0

1527.3 1.6 771.4 1.9 4.2 12986.0 8155.0 4831.0

1550.3 1.5 784.0 1.6 3.9 12651.7 8723.3 3928.0

1573.2 1.5 796.2 1.6 3.8 13674.2 9446.7 4227.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1380.7 1.2 704.6 0.4 8.2 6401.8 4571.3 1830.0

1398.9 1.3 709.8 0.7 7.0 7245.5 6164.9 1081.0

1423.5 1.8 717.8 1.1 6.2 7477.2 6245.8 1231.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


Jacksonville

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

69.4 5.1 37 32.3

70.4 5 37.6 32.8

71.4 4.8 38.2 33.2

72.5 5.6 38.8 33.7

73.7 6.2 39.4 34.2

75 6.6 40.1 34.9

76.4 7 40.8 35.6

77.8 7.4 41.5 36.3

79.5 7.8 42.2 37.3

80.9 7.8 42.9 38

82.3 7.7 43.5 38.7

83.6 7.5 44.2 39.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

62.6 3.3

63.3 3.3

64 3.1

64.7 4.1

65.6 4.8

66.5 5.1

67.4 5.3

68.3 5.6

69.4 5.8

70.3 5.8

71.2 5.6

72 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

46.4 41.9

46.9 42.2

47.4 42.5

47.9 42.8

48.5 43.2

49.2 43.6

49.9 44

50.7 44.5

51.5 45

52.3 45.4

53 45.8

53.7 46.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53 2.9

53.6 2.7

54.1 3

54.6 3.5

55.1 3.9

55.7 4

56.3 4.2

57 4.3

57.6 4.4

58.2 4.4

58.8 4.3

59.4 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

683.9 3.3

687 2.9

691.8 1.8

696.4 2.4

701.2 2.5

705.4 2.7

709.9 2.6

714.2 2.6

718.8 2.5

722.7 2.5

726.2 2.3

729.7 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

31.1 4.2

31.2 3.6

31.3 2.3

31.4 1.5

31.6 1.5

31.7 1.4

31.7 1.2

31.8 1.2

31.9 1.1

32.1 1.2

32.2 1.6

32.3 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

652.7 3.2

655.8 2.9

660.5 1.8

665 2.5

669.6 2.6

673.7 2.7

678.2 2.7

682.4 2.6

686.8 2.6

690.6 2.5

694.1 2.3

697.3 2.2

39.5 7.7

40 6.4

40.4 1.2

41 4.8

41.6 5.2

42.1 5.3

42.8 5.9

43.3 5.8

43.8 5.4

44.3 5

44.7 4.5

45.2 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

139.7 0.7

140.3 0.4

140.8 -0.1

141.2 1.8

141.9 1.6

142.4 1.5

142.8 1.4

143 1.3

143.4 1

143.6 0.8

143.9 0.8

144.1 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.2 78.5 35.8

25.4 78.6 36

25.6 78.7 36.2

25.7 78.7 36.4

25.9 79 36.6

26 79.1 36.8

26.2 79.2 36.9

26.3 79.3 37

26.4 79.6 37.1

26.6 79.8 37.2

26.7 80 37.3

26.8 80.1 37.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9 -1.3

9 -0.9

9 -0.2

9 0.2

9 0.5

9 0.7

9 0.7

9 0.4

9 0.4

9 0.2

9.1 0.5

9.1 0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

66.7 6.6

67 5.7

67.5 3.4

67.9 3

68.3 2.4

68.6 2.3

68.9 2

69.2 1.9

69.4 1.7

69.7 1.6

69.9 1.5

70.2 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

105.5 2.5

106.4 3.9

108.7 3.5

111.5 6.2

114 8.1

116.1 9.1

118.3 8.9

120.7 8.3

123.2 8.1

124.8 7.5

126 6.5

127.2 5.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

103.2 3.6

103.5 2.2

104.1 1.4

104.3 1.5

104.4 1.2

104.6 1.1

105 0.8

105.2 0.9

105.5 1

105.9 1.2

106.3 1.3

106.8 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

89.4 6.8

89.8 6.2

90.1 5

90.4 1.7

90.6 1.3

90.9 1.3

91.3 1.3

91.6 1.4

91.9 1.5

92.4 1.6

92.9 1.8

93.3 1.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 3.3

24.1 3.1

24.1 2.8

24.2 1.6

24.2 1.3

24.3 0.9

24.3 0.7

24.4 0.7

24.4 0.7

24.4 0.7

24.5 0.6

24.5 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 0.5

17.4 -1.5

17.1 -3.6

16.9 -4.2

16.8 -4.5

16.7 -3.7

16.6 -3.1

16.5 -2.4

16.5 -2.2

16.4 -1.9

16.4 -1.5

16.3 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.3 -0.4

58.4 0

58.5 -0.5

58.7 0.8

58.8 0.9

58.9 0.9

59.2 1.2

59.5 1.4

59.7 1.6

60.1 1.9

60.4 1.9

60.6 2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1495 1.8

1501 1.7

1507 1.6

1512.9 1.6

1518.7 1.6

1524.4 1.6

1530.3 1.5

1536 1.5

1541.8 1.5

1547.5 1.5

1553.2 1.5

1558.9 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

751.8 2.2

754.5 2.9

758.9 2.2

762.5 1.6

766.1 1.9

769.6 2

773 1.9

776.6 1.9

779.5 1.7

782.5 1.7

785.5 1.6

788.4 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4

3.9

3.9

3.8

13644 8284 5359

14075 8152 5924

14075 8094 5981

14011 8053 5958

13640 8052 5588

13147 8085 5061

12688 8182 4505

12469 8300 4169

12358 8452 3906

12495 8609 3886

12774 8822 3952

12980 9009 3970

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


L akelan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Super Market headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 6.1 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $33,500, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $49,300. Population growth is expected to average 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 19,314.82 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 289,931 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.0% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 17,517 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,300

• Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average 1.7 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 4.7 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.2 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector averaging 2.6 percent annual growth, and the Financial and Manufacturing sectors both averaging 1.8 percent. The Information sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -0.3 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Agency aims to help local businesses with a Metro Export Plan

• A Metro Export Plan is currently being organized by Javier Marin, director of business development at the Central Florida Development Council, in order to boost exports in Polk County. The plan is expected to be finished in July. • A total of 7.4% of Polk County’s GDP was in exports, totaling $1.5 billion. Some of the area’s largest exports were pesticides and fertilizers, with other top-ranking exports being agriculture products, freight services, and frozen and canned goods. Overall, Florida had a total of $69.4 billion in goods and services exported.

• Marin said, “Some 95 percent of the world’s consumers live outside our (U.S.) borders. Exports help grow our economy and create jobs.”

Source: The Ledger, January 26, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


L akelan d

Anchor-store closings leave future of Polk shopping malls in doubt

• The Lakeland Square Mall and Eagle Ridge Mall have seen some of their respective major anchor stores close their doors due to lack of strong sales.

• The Lakeland Square Mall lost Sports Authority in April. It is one of 140 stores nationwide that Sports Authority shut down. In January of this year, Macy’s had also shut down their Lakeland Square Mall location along with 99 other stores. At the Eagle Ridge Mall, Sears closed the doors as one of 200 Sears being closed nationwide. • Larry Ross, professor of business administration at Florida Southern College, said enclosed regional malls “have been nudged toward the end of their life cycles,” and that malls that have the greatest chance of surviving are malleable ones.

Source: The Ledger, January 11, 2017

J.C. Penney to close Lakeland distribution center, 130-140 stores

• J.C. Penney’s distribution center in Lakeland will be closing in June as J.C. Penney downsizes their operations nationwide. A total of 130-140 stores will also close; which stores in particular have not yet been announced.

• J.C. Penney has made this decision in order to achieve “long-term growth and profitability and deliver on shareholder value” and to better combat their online retail competitors.

• According to Steve Scruggs, president of the Lakeland Economic Development Council, the distribution center has around 80-100 employees. J.C. Penney will offer separation benefits, help with finding other employment and resume writing, and voluntary early retirement for qualifying, full-time employees.

Source: The Ledger, February 24, 2017

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

Lakeland Charter Review committee says no to changing worker protections

• The Charter Review Committee suggested little change to civil servant protections and the processes by which the civil servant program follows. • Opponents to the decision believed the City Commission is unclear on their reasoning behind exempting certain positions. Betsy Livingston, director of Lakeland Electric’s workforce training section, saw “little rhyme or reason” behind certain exemptions and that it all seemed “very random.” • Tony Delgado, City Manager, explained the qualifications for exemptions being based on a position’s main responsibilities and industry standards for the position.

Source: The Ledger, February 15, 2017

Lakeland Mass Market prepares for grand opening

• Lakeland’s Community Redevelopment Agency has spent almost $5 million to remodel the old Salvation Army complex at 820 N. Massachusetts Avenue and to bring the building up to code on safety and health standards. That building, Mass Market, is now ready to open.

• One business leasing part of the warehouse is Haus 820, an indoor event venue that can seat 200 people. On the other side of the warehouse is Artifact Studio, a nonprofit, 16-slot art studio available for Lakeland artists to use for workspace. The complex also hosts an apartment building and commercial kitchen.

• The Community Redevelopment Agency hopes that the redevelopment will bring private investment into the area.

Source: The Ledger, March 5, 2017


L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

21000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

20000.0

18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

15000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 230.0

1.5

19000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Lakeland Payroll Employment

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


L akelan d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

19.7 0.0 8.0 11.7 18.8 -1.8 32.0 30.5 41.2 1.8

20.0 1.1 8.3 11.6 18.8 -0.2 32.0 30.0 41.9 1.7

20.9 4.9 8.7 12.2 19.4 3.3 32.9 30.4 42.8 2.1

21.9 4.7 9.1 12.8 20.2 4.4 33.7 31.1 43.7 2.0

22.8 4.0 9.6 13.2 20.8 2.9 34.4 31.4 44.9 2.9

23.9 4.7 10.1 13.8 21.4 3.0 35.5 31.9 46.3 3.2

25.3 6.2 10.7 14.6 22.4 4.6 37.2 32.9 48.2 4.0

27.2 7.3 11.3 15.8 23.6 5.2 39.3 34.1 50.3 4.3

28.9 6.3 12.0 16.9 24.5 4.1 41.3 35.0 52.4 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 192.6 197.4 201.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.5 2.2 Manufacturing 14.6 15.9 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 8.8 3.3 Nonmanufacturing 178.0 181.5 185.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.9 2.1 Construction & Mining 10.2 10.9 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 6.8 4.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 47.1 48.1 49.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.1 2.8 Wholesale Trade 9.2 9.4 9.5 Retail Trade 24.6 25.4 26.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.2 13.3 13.5 Information 1.6 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 -1.5 1.1 Financial Activities 11.4 11.6 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 1.7 1.0 Prof & Business Services 25.4 26.0 27.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 2.3 4.2 Educ & Health Services 29.4 30.1 30.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 2.3 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 18.9 19.6 20.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 4.0 5.8 Other Services 5.3 5.3 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 0.1 5.4 Federal Government 1.1 1.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 -3.7 -6.2 State & Local Government 27.6 27.2 26.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -1.5 -3.3

208.2 3.2 16.5 0.6 191.7 3.4 12.1 6.5 51.8 4.7 10.1 27.2 14.5 1.6 0.5 12.2 4.0 27.8 2.5 30.8 1.2 22.2 7.0 5.7 2.0 1.1 6.7 26.4 0.5

212.5 2.0 16.8 1.8 195.6 2.1 12.3 1.6 53.8 3.8 10.4 28.2 15.2 1.6 -1.2 12.6 3.3 29.9 7.7 29.7 -3.6 23.1 4.1 5.8 2.1 1.1 2.2 25.7 -2.6

216.8 2.1 17.1 1.7 199.7 2.1 12.4 1.0 55.1 2.5 10.6 28.7 15.6 1.6 -0.5 12.9 2.4 31.4 5.1 30.3 2.0 23.6 1.9 6.0 2.1 1.1 -0.8 25.4 -1.3

220.9 1.9 17.3 1.3 203.6 1.9 12.9 3.7 55.6 1.0 10.7 28.6 15.9 1.6 -0.3 13.1 1.5 33.8 7.5 30.4 0.4 23.7 0.6 5.9 -0.5 1.0 -3.8 25.5 0.6

224.6 1.7 17.6 1.3 207.0 1.7 13.3 3.1 55.9 0.5 10.9 28.7 16.1 1.6 -0.3 13.2 1.0 35.7 5.5 30.7 0.8 23.9 1.0 5.9 -0.6 1.0 -1.9 25.9 1.3

227.4 1.3 17.7 1.1 209.6 1.3 13.6 2.6 56.0 0.3 11.1 28.9 16.3 1.6 0.0 13.3 0.8 36.5 2.5 31.2 1.6 24.2 1.1 5.9 -0.2 1.1 10.8 26.2 1.2

650.8 2.2 279.9 0.2 6.2 3056.2 3021.1 35.0

662.5 1.8 282.0 0.7 5.5 3993.5 3119.4 874.0

672.2 1.5 285.9 1.4 5.4 4273.1 3535.9 737.0

681.6 1.4 288.9 1.1 4.9 4613.8 3818.1 796.0

690.8 1.4 291.4 0.9 4.4 4996.0 4075.7 920.0

699.8 1.3 294.9 1.2 4.2 5490.8 4438.5 1052.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

616.3 1.0 277.3 0.2 9.7 1454.1 1399.9 54.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

624.3 1.3 278.8 0.5 8.3 1943.4 1915.0 28.0

636.7 2.0 279.3 0.2 7.2 2508.2 2502.1 6.0


L akelan d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.4 4.3 9.9 13.5

23.7 4.5 10 13.7

24 4.9 10.2 13.8

24.3 5 10.3 14

24.7 5.5 10.5 14.2

25.1 6 10.6 14.5

25.5 6.4 10.8 14.8

26 6.8 10.9 15

26.5 7.4 11.1 15.4

27 7.3 11.3 15.7

27.4 7.3 11.4 16

27.8 7.1 11.6 16.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 2.5

21.3 2.8

21.5 3.2

21.7 3.5

22 4.1

22.3 4.4

22.5 4.7

22.8 5

23.2 5.4

23.4 5.3

23.7 5.2

24 5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35 31.6

35.3 31.8

35.7 32

36 32.2

36.4 32.4

36.9 32.7

37.4 33

37.9 33.3

38.6 33.7

39.1 34

39.6 34.3

40.1 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.7 3.2

46.1 2.8

46.5 3.2

47 3.4

47.4 3.7

47.9 3.8

48.4 4

48.9 4.2

49.5 4.3

50 4.3

50.5 4.3

51.1 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

215.4 1.9

216.2 2.4

217.3 2.1

218.4 1.8

219.4 1.9

220.4 2

221.5 1.9

222.4 1.9

223.4 1.8

224.2 1.7

225 1.6

225.7 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17 1.4

17.1 2.2

17.1 1.8

17.2 1.4

17.3 1.5

17.3 1.4

17.3 1.1

17.4 1.2

17.5 1

17.5 1.2

17.6 1.5

17.7 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

198.4 1.9

199.1 2.5

200.2 2.1

201.2 1.8

202.1 1.9

203.1 2

204.2 2

205 1.9

205.9 1.9

206.7 1.8

207.4 1.6

208.1 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.3 -3

12.4 0.9

12.4 2.8

12.6 3.3

12.7 3.3

12.8 3.6

13 4.1

13 3.9

13.1 3.7

13.2 3.3

13.3 2.7

13.4 2.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

54.9 2.8

55 3.2

55.2 2.5

55.3 1.4

55.5 1.1

55.6 1.1

55.7 1

55.7 0.8

55.8 0.6

55.9 0.5

55.9 0.4

56 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.5 28.8 15.5

10.5 28.7 15.6

10.6 28.7 15.7

10.7 28.6 15.8

10.7 28.7 15.8

10.7 28.6 15.9

10.8 28.6 16

10.8 28.6 16

10.8 28.7 16

10.9 28.7 16.1

10.9 28.8 16.1

11 28.8 16.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -1.3

1.6 -0.8

1.6 0.5

1.6 -0.5

1.6 -0.4

1.6 -0.2

1.6 -0.2

1.6 -0.4

1.6 -0.4

1.6 -0.6

1.6 -0.2

1.6 -0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 2.4

12.9 2.7

12.9 2

13 2.3

13 1.7

13.1 1.7

13.1 1.3

13.1 1.2

13.2 1.2

13.2 1

13.2 0.8

13.2 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 6.9

31 5

31.6 3.2

32.3 5.5

33 7.2

33.5 8.1

34.1 7.7

34.6 7

35.2 6.7

35.6 6.1

35.8 5.1

36.1 4.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 0.3

30.3 2.9

30.4 3.9

30.4 0.8

30.4 0.5

30.4 0.5

30.5 0.3

30.5 0.5

30.6 0.7

30.7 0.8

30.7 0.8

30.8 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 2.9

23.6 2.7

23.6 1.1

23.6 0.8

23.6 0.4

23.7 0.5

23.7 0.6

23.8 0.7

23.8 0.8

23.9 0.9

24 1

24 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 4

6 3

6 1.4

5.9 0.2

5.9 -0.2

5.9 -0.5

5.9 -0.6

5.9 -0.5

5.9 -0.5

5.9 -0.5

5.9 -0.6

5.9 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 2.5

1.1 0.3

1.1 -1.3

1.1 -4.6

1.1 -4.9

1 -4

1 -3.4

1 -2.7

1 -5.2

1 -3

1 -0.8

1 1.5

25.4 -2.7

25.4 -1.9

25.4 -0.9

25.4 0.3

25.5 0.4

25.5 0.4

25.6 0.6

25.6 0.9

25.7 1.1

25.8 1.4

25.9 1.4

26 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

668.7 1.5

671 1.5

673.3 1.4

675.7 1.4

678 1.4

680.4 1.4

682.8 1.4

685.2 1.4

687.5 1.4

689.7 1.4

692 1.3

694.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

284.7 0.9

285.2 1.8

286.4 1.9

287.2 0.9

287.9 1.1

288.6 1.2

289.2 1

290 1

290.5 0.9

291.1 0.9

291.7 0.8

292.3 0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.5

5.3

5.1

5

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4004 3373 631

4231 3492 739

4400 3610 790

4457 3669 788

4543 3748 795

4587 3791 796

4639 3845 794

4686 3889 797

4807 3949 858

4921 4015 906

5068 4122 947

5188 4217 970

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


M iami – Fo r t L au d e r dale – P ompano B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 6.3 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $50,100 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.8 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $61,000, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.3 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 316,198.90 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,100,186 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 158,065 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 54

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 4.4 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sectors are expected to be the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services sector, both at an average of 5.2 percent annually. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Broward leads region in December job growth

• In 2016, South Florida experienced an average job growth of 2.4 percent compared to the national average of 1.5 percent.

• Miami-Dade County added 22,800 jobs, a two percent increase from last year. A total of 6,500 jobs were added in leisure and hospitality along with 4,700 jobs in professional and business services. • PNC Bank economist Mekael Teshome said he expects the unemployment decline “has run its course. . . We’re getting back to normal.” Source: Sun Sentinel, January 20, 2017


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Miami business travelers abandon taxis for Uber

• At the end of 2014, taxis accounted for 83 percent of expense-account transactions for transportation in Miami, while Uber accounted for 17 percent.

• At the end of 2016, only 27 percent of transactions went to taxis, compared to 67 percent for Uber and 6 percent being held by Uber’s competitor, Lyft. • Miami-Dade County reported 2,100 cab permits, while Uber held about 10,000.

Source: Miami Herald, January 31, 2017 Mortgage payments breaking the bank? You are not alone

• Residents of South Florida are spending more of their salaries on mortgage payments than they have in any of the previous six years, according to Zillow.

Miami’s long-awaited new $305M science museum finally has an opening date

• The Frost Museum of Science is considered one of the most complex buildings erected in South Florida and is set to open with a ribbon-cutting on May 8. • Frost Museum President Frank Steslow believes the museum will be able to cover its $30 million operating budget for the first 12 months after opening.

• In order to generate enough revenue to cover the first 12 months of expenses, the Frost Museum will be required to meet a projection of 700,000 annual visitors. Source: Miami Herald, March 3, 2017

• Nationally, the average American spends 15.8 percent of their income on mortgage payments, up from an average of 14.7 in 2015. • When it comes to rent, South Floridians are spending 42.7 percent of their monthly income, which is behind only Los Angeles (48.5 percent) and San Francisco (43.8 percent) on the national scale. Source: Miami Herald, February 15, 2017

South Florida’s hotel performance dips in January for second month in row

• Hotel occupancy decreased to 77 percent, from 80.8 percent a year ago, while the average daily rate decreased from $237.31 last year to $215.29 this year.

• Executive Vice President of Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau Rolando Adeo stated, “While rate and occupancy are down in Miami-Dade, our demand (rooms sold), was practically flat at (.4) percent, indicating we sold practically the same number of hotel rooms albeit at a lower rate.” • Miami-Dade County experienced record tourist visitation in 2016, with 15.8 million visitors. Source: Sun Sentinel, February 21, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


M iami – Fo r t L au d e r dale – P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 340000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

320000.0

260000.0

4.0%

240000.0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

220000.0

Miami Payroll Employment

56

1

280000.0

6.0%

2900.0 2800.0 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0

0.8

300000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

(Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

264.6 3.8 115.7 148.9 252.0 2.0 45.7 43.5 50.3 2.0

264.4 -0.1 120.3 144.2 248.5 -1.4 45.1 42.4 50.9 1.2

284.3 7.5 127.8 156.5 263.0 5.8 47.9 44.3 52.3 2.9

299.5 5.3 136.6 162.9 276.2 5.0 49.8 45.9 54.1 3.4

312.0 4.2 144.0 168.0 284.6 3.1 51.2 46.7 55.7 2.9

326.6 4.7 151.7 174.8 293.2 3.0 52.9 47.5 57.4 3.0

347.6 6.4 161.4 186.2 307.3 4.8 55.6 49.1 59.7 3.9

373.7 7.5 171.7 201.9 324.0 5.4 59.0 51.1 62.2 4.2

397.9 6.5 181.8 216.1 337.7 4.2 62.0 52.6 64.8 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2286.7 2349.4 2428.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.7 3.3 Manufacturing 77.0 77.8 81.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.0 4.2 Nonmanufacturing 2209.7 2271.5 2346.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.8 3.3 Construction & Mining 87.1 93.4 102.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 7.3 9.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 537.1 550.5 567.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.5 3.0 Wholesale Trade 139.1 140.7 142.9 Retail Trade 303.7 313.1 324.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 94.2 96.7 99.6 Information 45.2 46.4 47.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.8 2.9 Financial Activities 161.4 164.6 168.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.0 2.6 Prof & Business Services 353.0 371.2 389.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 5.2 5.0 Educ & Health Services 341.7 346.6 355.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1.4 2.7 Leisure & Hospitality 275.6 286.5 297.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 3.9 3.8 Other Services 108.5 111.8 117.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 3.0 4.8 Federal Government 33.8 33.5 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -0.8 -2.3 State & Local Government 266.3 267.1 267.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 0.3 0.2

2508.3 3.3 84.3 3.9 2424.0 3.3 112.9 10.1 585.1 3.1 145.3 336.5 103.3 48.2 0.9 174.9 3.7 405.4 4.0 367.7 3.3 307.3 3.3 121.1 3.4 33.2 1.6 268.2 0.2

2570.3 2.5 84.8 0.6 2485.6 2.5 120.2 6.5 596.7 2.0 149.7 341.6 105.4 48.1 -0.2 181.7 3.9 419.3 3.4 376.1 2.3 317.2 3.2 123.0 1.5 33.4 0.5 269.8 0.6

2629.5 2.3 85.8 1.2 2543.7 2.3 125.3 4.3 607.3 1.8 152.9 344.5 108.7 48.1 0.0 185.1 1.9 436.7 4.2 383.8 2.0 326.6 2.9 125.5 2.1 32.9 -1.5 272.3 0.9

2691.8 2.4 86.5 0.8 2605.4 2.4 133.3 6.4 615.1 1.3 155.7 345.7 111.3 48.2 0.2 188.6 1.9 471.2 7.9 386.2 0.6 330.4 1.2 126.1 0.4 31.8 -3.4 274.5 0.8

2748.4 2.1 87.2 0.9 2661.2 2.1 140.4 5.4 619.8 0.8 158.3 348.3 113.1 48.3 0.2 191.3 1.4 499.5 6.0 390.0 1.0 335.6 1.6 126.4 0.3 31.3 -1.6 278.6 1.5

2793.1 1.6 87.8 0.7 2705.2 1.7 147.2 4.8 622.5 0.4 161.4 350.4 114.5 48.3 0.1 193.8 1.3 512.7 2.6 396.7 1.7 341.6 1.8 127.1 0.5 33.1 5.7 282.0 1.2

6014.2 1.2 3020.4 0.7 5.5 20417.7 7150.3 13267.0

6090.2 1.3 3039.7 0.6 5.0 19287.0 7080.8 12206.0

6171.2 1.3 3098.0 1.9 4.9 23750.3 10775.6 12975.0

6253.2 1.3 3163.9 2.1 4.5 31218.3 15818.0 15400.0

6336.7 1.3 3224.1 1.9 4.1 35861.3 18259.3 17602.0

6420.6 1.3 3279.2 1.7 4.0 39451.3 20161.3 19290.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5794.1 1.4 2911.9 1.9 8.3 11424.4 5303.1 6121.0

5867.1 1.3 2943.0 1.1 7.2 17198.6 6269.0 10930.0

5941.0 1.3 2999.8 1.9 6.4 14630.8 5809.4 8821.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


M iami – Fo r t L au d e r dale – P ompano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

320 4.5 148.4 171.6

324.2 4.4 150.5 173.7

328.7 4.7 152.8 175.9

333.3 5.2 155.2 178.2

338.5 5.8 157.6 180.9

344.5 6.2 160.1 184.4

350.6 6.7 162.7 187.8

356.8 7.1 165.3 191.5

364.3 7.6 168 196.3

370.6 7.6 170.5 200.1

376.9 7.5 173 203.9

382.9 7.3 175.5 207.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

288.8 2.7

291.6 2.7

294.6 3

297.7 3.7

301.4 4.4

305.3 4.7

309.3 5

313.4 5.3

318.3 5.6

322.3 5.6

326 5.4

329.5 5.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

52.1 47

52.6 47.3

53.2 47.7

53.7 48

54.4 48.4

55.2 48.9

56 49.4

56.8 49.9

57.8 50.5

58.6 50.9

59.4 51.4

60.1 51.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.6 3

57.1 2.7

57.7 3

58.2 3.4

58.7 3.8

59.3 3.8

60 4

60.6 4.2

61.2 4.2

61.9 4.2

62.5 4.2

63.1 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2608.6 2.6

2619.4 2.3

2636.4 2

2653.4 2.2

2669.6 2.3

2684 2.5

2699.6 2.4

2714.2 2.3

2729.7 2.3

2742.9 2.2

2754.9 2

2766.2 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

85.5 0.5

85.7 1.2

85.8 1.9

86 1.1

86.4 1.1

86.5 1

86.3 0.6

86.6 0.6

86.9 0.5

87.1 0.7

87.3 1.2

87.6 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2523.1 2.7

2533.7 2.4

2550.6 2

2567.4 2.3

2583.1 2.4

2597.5 2.5

2613.3 2.5

2627.6 2.3

2642.8 2.3

2655.8 2.2

2667.5 2.1

2678.7 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

122.7 3.7

124.3 3.7

125.9 3.6

128.3 6

130.3 6.2

132.2 6.3

134.4 6.7

136.2 6.2

137.9 5.9

139.6 5.6

141.3 5.1

143 5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

604.2 2.3

606.3 1.8

608.5 1.4

610.1 1.6

612.5 1.4

614.6 1.4

616.3 1.3

617.2 1.2

618.3 0.9

619.3 0.8

620.5 0.7

621.2 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

151.8 344.3 107.5

152.4 344.5 108.3

153.4 344.8 109

154.2 344.4 109.8

154.8 345.3 110.4

155.3 345.6 111.2

156.1 346 111.7

156.7 346 112

157.3 347.1 112.3

158 347.8 112.8

158.7 348.8 113.3

159.3 349.3 113.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.1 0

48.2 0.1

48 0.1

48.2 -0.2

48.2 0

48.3 0.3

48.2 0.3

48.2 0.1

48.2 0.2

48.3 0

48.3 0.3

48.3 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

183.6 2

184.5 1.6

185.6 1.1

186.6 2.7

187.5 2.1

188.2 2

189 1.8

189.7 1.7

190.3 1.5

190.9 1.5

191.5 1.3

192.3 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

427.1 3.7

430.6 3.6

439.2 3.5

450 5.8

459.3 7.5

467 8.5

475.1 8.2

483.5 7.4

492.1 7.2

497.8 6.6

501.9 5.7

506 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

382.1 2.5

383 2.6

385 2

385.1 1.2

385.2 0.8

385.7 0.7

386.6 0.4

387.2 0.5

388 0.7

389.3 0.9

390.6 1

392.1 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

325 4.6

326.1 3.4

327.2 2.5

327.9 1.5

328.7 1.1

329.7 1.1

331 1.1

332 1.2

333.2 1.4

334.7 1.5

336.5 1.7

337.8 1.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

125 2

125.5 2.1

125.8 3

125.9 1.1

125.9 0.8

126 0.4

126.1 0.3

126.2 0.3

126.4 0.3

126.4 0.3

126.4 0.2

126.4 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 1.4

33.1 -0.5

32.7 -2.5

32.3 -4.2

32.1 -4.5

31.9 -3.6

31.7 -3

31.5 -2.3

31.5 -2

31.4 -1.7

31.3 -1.4

31.2 -1.1

271.6 1.2

272.1 1.2

272.6 0.8

273 0.6

273.4 0.7

273.9 0.6

274.8 0.8

275.8 1

276.9 1.3

278.1 1.5

279.2 1.6

280.3 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6140.4 1.3

6161 1.3

6181.5 1.3

6201.9 1.3

6222.2 1.3

6242.6 1.3

6263.5 1.3

6284.5 1.3

6305.3 1.3

6326.3 1.3

6347.2 1.3

6368.1 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

3074.4 1

3087.6 2.3

3106.8 2.6

3123.4 1.8

3140 2.1

3155.7 2.2

3171.6 2.1

3188.4 2.1

3202.8 2

3217.2 1.9

3231.2 1.9

3245.1 1.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

5.1

5

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

19772 8276 11496

22584 9995 12589

25045 11658 13386

27601 13173 14428

29477 14490 14986

30658 15474 15184

31650 16317 15333

33088 16990 16098

34230 17550 16681

35507 17990 17516

36473 18500 17973

37235 18997 18238

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


N aples - M a r co I slan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the second highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 7.8 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $77,200, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $56,800. The average annual wage is expected to grow at the fourth highest rate of the MSAs studied at 4.0 percent. Population growth will average 2.7 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 18,207.49 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 171,263 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.0% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,587 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110 • Arthrex, Inc. – 1,056

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 800 • Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.4 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 6.1 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 5.7 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Construction underway at Immokalee culinary business accelerator

• A 5,000-square-foot, vacant building at the Immokalee Regional Airport will be transformed into a state-of-the-art food manufacturing plant. The center will cost about $1.1 million.

• The facility will include a food lab that will be overseen by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Research.

• Plans are already forming to expand the center by 3,000 square feet to add a high-pressure processing machine. Other possible plans include a $10 million project to help build a production plant with 50,000 square feet of county-owned land at the Immokalee Regional Airport.

Source: Naples Daily News, March 2, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


Naples - Marco I slan d

Back in business: Commissioners revive Conservation Collier • County commissioners voted 3-2 to restart the Conservation Collier program. Commissioners plan to take up $17 million from a trust fund of $35 million, which had been set aside for land preservation.

• The money taken from the trust fund would be paid back from the revenue from a tax hike. The tax hike would be an increase in property tax by 25 cents per $1,000 of taxable value. • The Conservation Collier program has proven to be popular with voters. The program has been restarted immediately: Commissioner Burt Saunders said, “We’re not waiting for the next budget cycle, which is important because I think waiting on something like this is not in the best interest of citizens.”

Source: Naples Daily News, February 20, 2017

FGCU Looks to Expand ETI, Moves Forward on 234-Acre Purchase

• Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) has a new campaign, “FGCU at 20.” The campaign is centered on growth, which is the university’s top priority.

• Emergent Technology Institute (ETI) is a 6.5-acre, 25,000-square-foot facility; however, it has seen minimal use since opening in January 2016. FGCU estimates that the land at ETI has the potential to hold one or two more buildings. ETI task force asked the board to pursue an architectural drawing for a new building to serve as the Institute of Entrepreneurship.

• The FGCU Foundation Board of Directors proposed the purchase of the surrounding 234 acres of the ETI hub, and the vote passed 10 to 1. The foundation is moving forward with the seller with a budget of $5 million.

Source: Naples Herald, January 11, 2017

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

House flipping requires smarts in peak market

• The share of home sales made by flips—which is buying a home at a low price, fixing it, and selling it for profit in one year—has fallen in Collier and Lee Counties, despite other areas hitting highs. • Home prices rose 6.1 percent in Lee County and 13 percent in Collier, squeezing price ranges out of the “sweet spots for home flippers’ tastes,” according to Daren Blomquist of Attom Data Solutions. • Other new trends include crowd-funded real estate investing. Most flippers buy with cash, but 32 percent of flipped homes were financed in 2016: Daren Blomquist said, “It’s an eight-year high…online crowd funding makes it easier to get financing for a home flip.”

Source: Naples Daily News, February 10, 2017

Naples Looking Like a Buyer’s Market in 2017

• Inventories are up 34 percent, and average time on the market is up 15 percent, according to the Naples Area Board of Realtors. In December, median closed price grew by four percent to $320,000, although sales decreased by 13 percent. • Time on the market is up from 78 days in 2015 to 88 days. However, this is still down from a peak of 96 days. • Realtors expressed frustration throughout 2016 because of sellers not pricing their homes realistically. Jeff Jones of Coldwell Banker said, “Priced correctly, properties will move in a reasonable length of time.”

Source: Naples Herald, January 23, 2017


N aples - M a r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0

2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

10000.0

Naples Payroll Employment 160.0

1.5

18000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Naples Payroll Employment

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


Naples - Marco I slan d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

24.1 9.4 5.6 18.5 23.0 7.6 72.3 68.9 46.6 1.5

24.1 0.0 6.0 18.1 22.6 -1.4 70.8 66.5 48.3 3.5

26.9 11.6 6.4 20.5 24.9 9.9 77.0 71.3 48.9 1.3

28.0 4.2 6.8 21.2 25.9 3.9 78.3 72.2 50.2 2.7

29.2 4.0 7.2 22.0 26.6 2.9 79.1 72.2 51.7 2.9

30.7 5.4 7.6 23.1 27.6 3.7 81.1 72.8 53.4 3.3

33.1 7.8 8.2 25.0 29.3 6.2 85.2 75.3 55.5 4.1

36.3 9.6 8.8 27.5 31.5 7.5 91.0 78.9 58.0 4.4

39.3 8.3 9.4 29.9 33.4 6.0 96.1 81.6 60.5 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 118.7 123.3 129.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.9 5.4 Manufacturing 2.7 3.0 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.0 13.7 7.9 Nonmanufacturing 116.0 120.2 126.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.6 5.3 Construction & Mining 9.4 10.5 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 11.6 15.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.8 23.9 25.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 5.1 5.9 Wholesale Trade 3.0 3.4 3.7 Retail Trade 18.4 19.1 20.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.4 1.4 1.5 Information 1.4 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 4.0 -0.6 Financial Activities 6.7 7.0 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.2 7.1 Prof & Business Services 13.3 13.5 14.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.8 1.7 6.5 Educ & Health Services 18.0 18.3 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.7 2.9 Leisure & Hospitality 23.6 24.4 25.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 3.7 4.4 Other Services 7.5 7.9 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 6.6 5.1 Federal Government 0.6 0.6 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3 -7.6 0.0 State & Local Government 12.7 12.5 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -1.8 -0.5

135.1 4.0 3.4 3.6 131.7 4.1 13.5 11.9 26.1 3.0 3.7 20.8 1.7 1.5 0.6 8.0 6.8 15.1 4.5 19.6 4.2 26.4 3.6 8.3 -0.9 0.6 2.8 12.5 1.0

138.6 2.6 3.6 5.6 135.0 2.5 14.6 7.5 26.7 2.2 3.7 21.3 1.7 1.5 -0.5 8.3 3.3 15.0 -0.2 20.1 2.5 27.5 4.0 8.3 0.4 0.7 12.2 12.3 -1.4

141.8 2.3 3.7 3.0 138.1 2.3 15.5 6.5 27.0 1.1 3.8 21.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 8.6 3.9 15.4 2.7 20.6 2.2 28.0 2.0 8.5 2.0 0.7 -1.2 12.3 0.0

146.4 3.2 3.8 1.6 142.6 3.3 16.5 6.2 27.6 2.4 3.9 21.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 8.9 3.6 16.8 9.0 20.9 1.8 28.4 1.5 8.6 1.8 0.7 -2.2 12.6 2.0

151.1 3.2 3.8 1.5 147.2 3.2 17.5 6.1 28.2 2.0 4.0 22.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 9.2 3.3 18.1 7.4 21.4 2.1 29.0 2.0 8.8 1.6 0.7 -0.3 12.9 2.7

155.5 2.9 3.9 1.3 151.6 3.0 18.5 5.7 28.6 1.6 4.2 22.6 1.9 1.6 1.2 9.6 3.7 18.7 3.7 22.0 3.0 29.7 2.3 8.9 1.9 0.8 14.8 13.3 2.5

358.1 2.6 162.1 1.0 5.2 3797.0 3058.2 739.0

368.5 2.9 163.7 0.9 4.8 3667.1 2925.3 742.0

378.9 2.8 166.9 2.0 4.8 3772.3 2582.5 1190.0

389.0 2.6 170.4 2.1 4.5 4678.0 2477.5 2201.0

399.0 2.6 174.1 2.2 4.3 5234.9 2519.3 2716.0

409.2 2.6 179.1 2.9 4.2 5729.7 2745.6 2984.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

333.4 1.6 152.8 2.7 8.5 1484.9 1283.0 202.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

340.5 2.1 155.7 1.9 7.1 2333.3 1731.8 601.0

349.2 2.5 160.4 3.0 6.0 3256.9 2391.7 865.0


N aples - M a r co I slan d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

30 5.1 7.4 22.6

30.5 5.1 7.5 23

31 5.4 7.7 23.3

31.5 6.1 7.8 23.7

32 6.8 7.9 24.1

32.8 7.5 8.1 24.7

33.5 8.2 8.2 25.3

34.2 8.8 8.4 25.8

35.1 9.7 8.6 26.6

35.9 9.6 8.7 27.2

36.7 9.6 8.9 27.9

37.5 9.5 9 28.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.1 3.3

27.4 3.3

27.8 3.7

28.1 4.6

28.5 5.4

29.1 5.9

29.6 6.5

30.1 7

30.7 7.6

31.2 7.6

31.8 7.5

32.3 7.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

80 72.2

80.7 72.6

81.5 73

82.2 73.4

83.2 74

84.5 74.9

85.9 75.7

87.2 76.6

88.9 77.7

90.4 78.6

91.8 79.4

93.1 80.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.6 3.2

53.1 3

53.6 3.5

54.1 3.4

54.6 3.8

55.2 3.9

55.8 4.2

56.4 4.4

57 4.4

57.7 4.5

58.3 4.4

58.9 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

140.2 3

141.2 2.1

142.4 1.2

143.5 3.1

144.6 3.1

145.8 3.2

147.1 3.3

148.2 3.3

149.4 3.3

150.5 3.3

151.6 3.1

152.7 3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 4.3

3.7 3.5

3.7 2.4

3.7 1.7

3.8 1.9

3.8 1.7

3.8 1.4

3.8 1.5

3.8 1.2

3.8 1.4

3.8 1.8

3.8 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

136.5 3

137.5 2

138.7 1.2

139.7 3.1

140.8 3.2

142 3.3

143.3 3.3

144.4 3.4

145.6 3.4

146.7 3.3

147.8 3.1

148.8 3.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 7.3

15.4 8

15.6 5.7

15.8 5.2

16.1 5.7

16.3 5.8

16.6 6.7

16.9 6.7

17.1 6.7

17.3 6.3

17.6 5.7

17.8 5.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 2.6

26.9 0.4

27.1 -1.3

27.2 2.7

27.4 2.5

27.5 2.4

27.7 2.4

27.8 2.4

28 2.2

28.1 2

28.2 1.9

28.4 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.7 21.3 1.7

3.7 21.3 1.7

3.8 21.4 1.7

3.8 21.4 1.7

3.8 21.6 1.7

3.9 21.6 1.8

3.9 21.7 1.8

3.9 21.8 1.8

4 21.9 1.8

4 22.1 1.8

4.1 22.2 1.8

4.1 22.3 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 0

1.5 0

1.5 2.7

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.4

1.5 1.5

1.5 1.5

1.5 1.2

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.1

1.5 1.4

1.6 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 3.9

8.6 3.5

8.7 3.7

8.7 4.5

8.8 3.9

8.9 3.8

9 3.5

9 3.4

9.1 3.4

9.2 3.2

9.3 3.1

9.3 3.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15 0.2

15.2 1.2

15.6 2.7

16 6.6

16.3 8.5

16.7 9.5

17 9.3

17.4 8.7

17.7 8.6

18 8.1

18.2 7

18.4 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 3.3

20.5 2.2

20.7 1.2

20.7 2.2

20.8 1.9

20.9 1.8

21 1.6

21.1 1.8

21.2 1.9

21.3 2.1

21.4 2.1

21.6 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

27.9 3.9

28 2

28.1 0.4

28.1 1.6

28.2 1.3

28.4 1.5

28.5 1.6

28.6 1.7

28.8 1.9

28.9 1.9

29.1 2

29.2 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 2.4

8.5 2

8.5 1.2

8.5 2.5

8.6 2.1

8.6 1.7

8.6 1.6

8.7 1.6

8.7 1.7

8.7 1.7

8.8 1.5

8.8 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.5

0.7 2

0.7 -4.1

0.7 -3

0.7 -3.3

0.7 -2.4

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.1

0.6 -4.6

0.7 -1.7

0.7 1.1

0.7 4.1

12.3 -0.2

12.3 -1.1

12.4 -0.6

12.4 1.8

12.5 1.9

12.5 1.8

12.6 2.1

12.7 2.3

12.8 2.5

12.9 2.8

13 2.8

13.1 2.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

375.1 2.9

377.7 2.9

380.3 2.8

382.8 2.8

385.3 2.7

387.7 2.7

390.2 2.6

392.7 2.6

395.1 2.6

397.7 2.6

400.3 2.6

402.8 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

165.6 1.7

166.3 2.2

167.3 2.1

168.2 1.8

169.1 2.1

169.9 2.2

170.8 2.1

171.8 2.1

172.6 2.1

173.6 2.2

174.6 2.2

175.6 2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5

4.9

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

3337 2651 686

3602 2565 1037

3931 2563 1368

4220 2551 1669

4467 2543 1924

4612 2501 2111

4723 2459 2264

4910 2407 2502

5038 2441 2597

5206 2484 2721

5311 2549 2763

5385 2604 2782

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


Ocala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 7.3 percent annually. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $34,300. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $44,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.8 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,986.82 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.3 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.3 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Professional and Business Services sector and the Professional and Business Services sector are expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, with both averaging an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent. This is followed by the Financial sector with 2.6 percent average annual growth. The Information sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -1.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 135,413 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.3% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,587 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994

• Lockheed Martin – 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Investors creating residential spaces near downtown square • Leon Gellar, a local investor, believes that City of Ocala elected officials are committed to making downtown Ocala a destination. This has given Gellar and other investors the confidence to pour hundreds of thousands of dollars into downtown properties. • According to Ocala City Manager John Zobler, downtown needs to have people living there in order to be a successful area.

• To show the city’s commitment to developing downtown, the city approved plans for a 90-room hotel and gave over $1.5 million in tax incentives to assist in construction. They also built a $5.3 million parking garage. Source: Ocala Star Banner, March 5, 2017 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


O cala

County announces event funding program

• A new program from Ocala/Marion County Visitors and Convention Bureau will offer up to $5,000 in start-up funding to help local organizations develop events that provide community-based recreation for residents and visitors.

• The Tourist Development Council created the program in hopes that it will increase the number of events, incentivizing local and visitor spending and enhancing the overall area experience. • Ashley Dobbs, who is the sales and marketing coordinator for the bureau, said, “[This program] is a great way to help events build a foundation that will encourage visitation and longer length of stay within Marion County.”

Source: Ocala Star Banner, February 13, 2017 Reilly Arts Center is exceeding expectations

• The Ocala City Council granted $300,000 for the Reilly Arts Center in 2015. As of February 2, 2017, there have been 141 events at the Reilly—this includes everything from concerts to corporate rentals—and more than 49,000 people have attended Reilly shows.

• Ocala City Manager John Zobler mentions that the Reilly Arts Center has raised Ocala’s performing arts scene to a new level, and he believes that this is a draw for Fortune 500 companies and other business looking for expansion opportunities. • The Reilly is a nonprofit organization, and though it is making huge profits, it is in the black. It made $7,000 in its first year.

• The emergency department currently treats an average of 45,000 patients annually, and the expansion will allow the department to treat about 64,000 patients annually. Furthermore, the department is currently 7,000 square feet, and the expansion will add 5,000 more square feet.

• The expansions will be completed in 2018, as they are being done in phases. Source: Ocala Star Banner, January 20, 2017 Business owners say downtown is the place

• Bryan Caracciolo, owner of Absolute Entertainment Ventures, LLC thinks that downtown Ocala is the place for business: “The city (government) has really stepped up ...; and it’s investing a lot of money downtown, and it’s paying off (as more businesses head downtown). There’s a lot going on downtown. You get out of the hustle and bustle of 200.” • The Sokols are opening their wine tasting business to be an outlet for the wine they make in Morriston. Patricia Sokol said “We chose downtown because it’s going to grow. It’s going to be another Winter Park.” She put her money where her mouth is by investing $141,000 into the project, with some help from the city to refurbish the historical downtown storefront. • Several other restaurants and venues have opened or will open soon downtown, including Starbucks, Chik-fil-A, Craft Kitchen Ocala, Huddle House, Popeye’s, and Jersey Mike’s Subs.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, January 9, 2017

Source: Ocala Star Banner, February 5, 2017 Ocala Health announces $56 million investment

• The expansions to Ocala Health will create 80 new permanent jobs. The expansions include the overhaul of the medical center’s emergency department, adding more ER rooms and 34 patient beds, expanding the medical imaging center, adding operating rooms and support facilities, and creating more catheterization lab space. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

2

9000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8500.0

7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

66

1.4

7500.0

105.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

1

8000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

10.6 0.9 3.5 7.2 10.1 -0.8 31.8 30.3 37.7 1.5

10.6 -0.7 3.6 7.0 9.9 -2.0 31.4 29.5 38.2 1.4

11.1 4.9 3.7 7.4 10.2 3.3 32.7 30.2 38.7 1.2

11.6 4.7 3.9 7.7 10.7 4.4 33.8 31.2 39.9 3.1

12.1 4.1 4.1 8.0 11.0 3.0 34.7 31.7 40.9 2.5

12.7 5.2 4.3 8.4 11.4 3.5 35.9 32.3 41.9 2.4

13.7 7.5 4.6 9.1 12.1 5.9 37.9 33.5 43.6 4.2

14.9 8.9 4.9 10.0 12.9 6.8 40.5 35.2 45.5 4.5

16.0 7.8 5.2 10.8 13.6 5.5 42.9 36.4 47.5 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 91.0 92.8 95.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.0 3.0 Manufacturing 6.7 6.9 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 3.0 4.5 Nonmanufacturing 84.2 85.9 88.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.9 2.9 Construction & Mining 5.4 5.8 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 8.2 7.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.9 21.5 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 2.7 2.8 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.4 3.2 Retail Trade 14.9 15.1 15.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.7 3.0 3.2 Information 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.0 -6.5 -4.9 Financial Activities 4.2 4.2 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.2 -2.1 Prof & Business Services 8.6 9.1 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.2 5.7 5.0 Educ & Health Services 14.3 14.4 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 0.6 17.1 Leisure & Hospitality 10.3 10.6 11.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.7 4.6 Other Services 2.8 2.9 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.6 3.0 5.6 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 0.1 State & Local Government 16.2 15.9 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -1.5 -12.8

97.5 2.0 7.6 4.5 89.9 1.8 6.4 2.8 22.5 2.0 3.3 16.0 3.2 0.8 -0.1 4.1 0.9 9.3 -2.1 17.6 4.8 11.8 5.7 3.0 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 13.6 -2.1

99.3 1.9 8.0 5.5 91.3 1.5 6.4 -1.0 22.7 0.6 3.2 16.1 3.4 0.8 -6.2 4.2 1.7 9.1 -2.1 18.5 4.8 12.2 3.5 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 13.8 1.4

101.6 2.3 8.3 3.9 93.3 2.2 6.5 2.6 23.3 2.7 3.2 16.5 3.5 0.7 -6.1 4.3 1.8 9.2 1.2 19.2 3.8 12.5 2.9 3.1 -0.4 0.7 -1.8 13.8 0.3

104.1 2.5 8.4 1.1 95.7 2.6 6.9 5.7 23.7 1.9 3.2 16.7 3.6 0.7 0.4 4.4 3.1 10.0 8.0 19.4 1.5 12.7 1.5 3.1 1.4 0.7 -2.6 14.1 1.6

106.5 2.4 8.5 1.1 98.1 2.5 7.2 5.2 24.1 1.4 3.3 16.9 3.7 0.7 0.4 4.5 2.7 10.6 5.7 19.8 1.8 13.0 2.0 3.1 1.2 0.7 -0.7 14.4 2.3

108.9 2.2 8.6 0.9 100.4 2.3 7.6 4.6 24.3 1.0 3.4 17.2 3.8 0.7 0.8 4.7 3.0 10.9 3.0 20.3 2.7 13.3 2.2 3.2 1.6 0.7 12.0 14.7 2.1

343.3 1.3 131.1 -0.6 6.4 1067.4 1066.8 1.0

348.1 1.4 131.4 0.2 5.8 1454.2 1450.5 4.0

353.8 1.6 133.6 1.6 5.8 2243.7 2163.3 80.0

360.1 1.8 135.5 1.4 5.4 2805.1 2609.5 196.0

366.9 1.9 137.5 1.5 5.0 3104.3 2854.4 250.0

374.0 1.9 140.4 2.1 4.8 3391.6 3120.7 271.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

334.1 0.5 130.5 -0.4 10.3 407.3 405.9 1.0

335.9 0.5 130.9 0.3 8.6 594.5 582.0 12.0

339.1 0.9 131.9 0.8 7.3 733.3 696.4 37.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


Ocala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.4 4.8 4.2 8.2

12.6 4.7 4.2 8.4

12.8 5.5 4.3 8.5

13 6 4.4 8.6

13.2 6.7 4.5 8.8

13.5 7.2 4.5 9

13.8 7.8 4.6 9.2

14.1 8.3 4.7 9.4

14.4 9 4.8 9.7

14.7 8.9 4.8 9.9

15 8.9 4.9 10.1

15.3 8.7 5 10.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 3

11.3 3

11.5 3.7

11.6 4.4

11.8 5.2

12 5.7

12.2 6.1

12.4 6.5

12.6 6.9

12.8 6.9

13 6.8

13.2 6.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.3 31.9

35.7 32.1

36.1 32.4

36.5 32.6

37 33

37.7 33.4

38.2 33.7

38.9 34.1

39.6 34.6

40.2 35

40.9 35.3

41.5 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 2.2

41.7 1.8

42 2.4

42.5 3.2

42.9 4

43.4 4.1

43.8 4.3

44.3 4.4

44.8 4.5

45.3 4.5

45.8 4.4

46.3 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

100.7 2.5

101.2 1.9

101.9 2.4

102.5 2.5

103.1 2.4

103.8 2.5

104.4 2.5

105 2.5

105.6 2.4

106.3 2.4

106.8 2.3

107.4 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 6.3

8.3 4.9

8.3 2.9

8.3 1.5

8.4 1.5

8.4 1.3

8.4 0.8

8.4 0.9

8.4 0.6

8.5 0.9

8.5 1.5

8.5 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

92.4 2.1

93 1.6

93.6 2.4

94.2 2.5

94.8 2.5

95.4 2.6

96.1 2.6

96.6 2.6

97.2 2.6

97.8 2.5

98.4 2.4

98.9 2.4

6.4 0

6.5 1.1

6.6 4

6.6 5.3

6.7 5.3

6.8 5.4

6.9 6.1

7 6

7.1 5.9

7.2 5.4

7.3 4.9

7.4 4.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 2.6

23.2 2.5

23.4 3.6

23.4 2.2

23.6 1.9

23.7 1.9

23.8 1.9

23.9 1.8

23.9 1.6

24 1.4

24.1 1.3

24.2 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 16.5 3.4

3.2 16.5 3.5

3.2 16.5 3.5

3.2 16.5 3.5

3.2 16.6 3.6

3.2 16.7 3.6

3.2 16.7 3.6

3.3 16.7 3.6

3.3 16.8 3.6

3.3 16.9 3.7

3.3 17 3.7

3.3 17 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -11.9

0.7 -11.4

0.7 0.5

0.7 0

0.7 0.3

0.7 0.5

0.7 0.6

0.7 0.3

0.7 0.4

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.5

0.7 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 1.1

4.3 0.2

4.3 2.2

4.3 3.9

4.4 3.3

4.4 3.3

4.4 2.9

4.5 2.8

4.5 2.8

4.5 2.7

4.6 2.6

4.6 2.7

9 -1.6

9.1 -0.9

9.3 1.1

9.5 6.3

9.7 7.9

9.9 8.7

10.1 8.2

10.2 7.3

10.4 6.9

10.5 6.2

10.6 5.3

10.7 4.6

19 4.6

19.1 4.4

19.2 4.3

19.3 1.9

19.3 1.6

19.4 1.5

19.5 1.3

19.6 1.5

19.6 1.7

19.7 1.8

19.8 1.8

20 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 4.7

12.5 3.3

12.5 2.1

12.6 1.7

12.6 1.3

12.7 1.5

12.8 1.6

12.8 1.8

12.9 1.9

12.9 2

13 2

13.1 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3 -2.6

3 -0.5

3.1 -0.6

3.1 2.2

3.1 1.8

3.1 1.4

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.2

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.1

3.1 1.1

0.7 0.5

0.7 -1.6

0.7 -2.7

0.7 -3.4

0.7 -3.7

0.7 -2.8

0.7 -2.2

0.7 -1.5

0.6 -4.1

0.7 -1.8

0.7 0.5

0.7 2.8

13.8 1.7

13.8 -1.2

13.9 -0.6

13.9 1.3

14 1.4

14 1.4

14.1 1.7

14.2 1.9

14.3 2.1

14.3 2.4

14.4 2.4

14.5 2.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

351.5 1.5

353 1.6

354.5 1.7

356.1 1.7

357.6 1.7

359.2 1.8

360.9 1.8

362.5 1.8

364.3 1.9

366 1.9

367.8 1.9

369.6 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

132.9 1.5

133.2 1.7

133.8 2.2

134.3 1.2

134.8 1.4

135.3 1.5

135.7 1.4

136.3 1.4

136.7 1.4

137.2 1.5

137.8 1.5

138.3 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.1

5

5

5

1897 1871 26

2151 2092 59

2359 2263 96

2569 2428 141

2673 2507 166

2756 2571 185

2848 2645 203

2944 2715 229

3000 2761 239

3061 2811 250

3143 2887 255

3213 2958 255

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


O r lan d o – K issimmee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions, such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 7.1 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,00. Average annual wage growth will be 3.7 percent, the lowest of the studied areas. The average annual wage will be at a level of $53,600. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.2 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 133,574.41 million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,280,106 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 62,244 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin – 5,774

Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent annually, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.9 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.5 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent, and the Leisure sector at 2.8 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Universal Orlando Resort to hire nearly 2,000 workers for Volcano Bay • Volcano Bay, Universal Orlando Resort’s water park attraction, is looking to fill 1,700 positions before it opens this summer. • The openings include positions in culinary, food services, security, custodial, parking and transportation, ticket sales, and turnstiles.

• In an effort to ensure safety at the park’s lazy river, water slides, wave pool, etc., there will also be an open call to hire over 400 lifeguards on January 28. Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 11, 2017

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


O r lan do – K issimmee

I-Drive area spec office building hits construction milestone

• On January 30, the first wall of Kirkman Point II, a four-story, $10 million project, is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2017. It is the second phase of a four-building office complex.

• The office building will offer 33,500 square feet of “virtually column-free, contiguous space,” as well as a restaurant, fitness center, and retail space. • There have not yet been any tenants signed, but the building could be occupied before the end of the year or the first quarter of 2018 because “prospects look good [...] since Orlando continues to attract major corporations due to the strong local labor pool,” according to CBRE Inc.’s Jay Dixon. Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 30, 2017 $54M luxury apartment complex planned near Disney, Margaritaville • Thanks to a $37.7 million construction loan from Hall Structured Finance, progress can be made on plans for a new luxury apartment complex close to Walt Disney World and Margaritaville Resort Orlando.

• The $54 million project will include 326 units within nine two-to-four-story buildings. The units will measure about 1,000 square feet on average and be complete with modern finishes. • The apartment complex will also feature amenities such as a resort-style pool, clubhouse, fitness center, social lounge, and conference facility. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 9, 2017 Florida Hospital for Women to expand

• In its year of operation, Florida Hospital for Women has treated over 7,000 people and has been the birthplace for almost 3,800 babies. They have also performed over 750 mammography screenings within that period. • Florida Hospital for Women is now planning to expand by opening a new neonatal intensive care unit and surgical suite this spring. 70

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

• The NICU will be a two-story facility that will build upon the services offered at the neighboring Florida Hospital for Children’s NICU and increase the NICU bed total to 102. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 20, 2017 Construction to start on high-end $20M Windermere shopping plaza • Construction set to begin on Windermere Village this summer. It is a $20 million, 10-acre project that should be completed by early 2018.

• The plaza will include three one-story buildings with a total of 50,000 square feet between them, outdoor seating, and a park with a covered pavilion. • The first tenant of the shopping center is revealed to be The Fresh Market, which will be launching a new 22,000-square-foot prototype store.

• According to landowner Marc Skorman, most of the plaza will consist of restaurants and service and medical office space, with “an even mix of national and local chains.” Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 7, 2017


O r lan d o – K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

150000.0

8.0%

120000.0

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0

6.0%

100000.0

4.0%

90000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

80000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1300.0

6.0%

1200.0

3.0%

1100.0

0.0%

1000.0

-3.0%

900.0

-6.0%

800.0

1.4

140000.0 130000.0

1400.0

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-9.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


O r lan do – K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

78.3 3.6 46.1 32.1 74.5 1.9 35.1 33.4 44.5 2.8

80.6 3.0 48.1 32.5 75.7 1.6 35.4 33.2 44.9 0.9

86.2 7.0 51.4 34.8 79.7 5.3 37.0 34.2 46.1 2.7

92.2 7.0 55.5 36.8 85.0 6.6 38.6 35.5 47.8 3.6

97.8 6.1 59.5 38.3 89.2 5.0 39.9 36.4 49.1 2.7

103.5 5.9 63.2 40.3 93.0 4.2 41.2 37.0 50.5 2.9

111.3 7.5 67.9 43.4 98.4 5.8 43.3 38.3 52.5 3.9

120.3 8.2 72.8 47.5 104.4 6.1 45.9 39.8 54.6 4.1

128.8 7.0 77.5 51.4 109.3 4.8 48.1 40.8 56.8 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1031.8 1065.7 1109.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.3 4.1 Manufacturing 38.0 38.2 39.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.5 3.7 Nonmanufacturing 993.8 1027.5 1069.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.4 4.1 Construction & Mining 46.2 51.2 55.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 10.8 9.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 198.1 204.4 212.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.2 4.1 Wholesale Trade 39.0 40.1 41.9 Retail Trade 128.1 133.0 138.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.9 31.3 32.3 Information 23.6 23.6 23.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -0.2 1.3 Financial Activities 67.2 69.7 71.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 3.7 1.9 Prof & Business Services 169.3 175.6 183.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 3.8 4.5 Educ & Health Services 128.1 131.4 135.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 2.6 3.3 Leisure & Hospitality 210.2 218.7 231.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.0 5.7 Other Services 34.8 36.0 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 3.3 5.6 Federal Government 12.3 12.4 12.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 0.6 1.6 State & Local Government 104.0 104.6 105.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.6 0.7

1156.0 4.2 41.2 4.1 1114.8 4.2 60.6 8.4 220.6 3.6 43.6 142.6 34.4 24.1 0.8 72.2 1.7 194.7 6.1 142.8 5.2 239.8 3.8 40.6 6.8 13.0 3.1 106.5 1.1

1207.9 4.5 43.7 5.9 1164.2 4.4 70.1 15.6 227.3 3.0 44.3 147.3 35.6 23.6 -1.9 72.5 0.4 202.1 3.8 151.1 5.8 253.6 5.8 42.0 3.5 14.1 8.4 107.9 1.3

1247.7 3.3 43.8 0.4 1203.9 3.4 75.8 8.1 232.1 2.1 45.6 149.2 36.6 23.6 0.1 74.5 2.8 210.6 4.2 156.9 3.8 264.5 4.3 42.8 2.0 14.2 1.2 108.9 0.9

1289.2 3.3 44.4 1.2 1244.8 3.4 80.8 6.7 236.8 2.0 46.9 150.6 37.7 23.9 1.3 76.4 2.5 229.8 9.1 159.3 1.5 269.7 2.0 43.5 1.6 13.9 -2.5 110.8 1.7

1328.3 3.0 45.0 1.3 1283.3 3.1 85.5 5.9 240.1 1.4 48.3 152.9 38.5 24.2 1.1 77.8 1.9 246.6 7.3 161.9 1.7 276.0 2.3 44.0 1.2 13.8 -0.8 113.4 2.4

1360.2 2.4 45.4 1.0 1314.8 2.5 90.0 5.2 242.4 1.0 49.8 155.1 39.3 24.4 0.8 79.1 1.6 255.5 3.6 165.7 2.3 282.6 2.4 44.7 1.5 14.6 5.8 115.8 2.1

2391.7 2.5 1223.4 1.4 5.0 19201.0 12024.7 7176.0

2452.3 2.5 1257.6 2.8 4.4 22103.2 15039.9 7063.0

2510.7 2.4 1289.1 2.5 4.4 21422.8 14664.0 6759.0

2566.9 2.2 1318.6 2.3 4.0 21435.7 14213.7 7222.0

2622.6 2.2 1344.2 1.9 3.7 22872.3 14779.7 8093.0

2678.4 2.1 1369.0 1.9 3.5 25104.5 16138.7 8966.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

72

2231.0 2.2 1163.3 1.4 8.4 10915.9 7239.2 3677.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

2278.2 2.1 1180.3 1.5 7.0 14805.7 9064.1 5742.0

2332.5 2.4 1206.5 2.2 6.0 14439.3 9692.8 4747.0


O r lan d o – K issimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

101.1 5.9 61.7 39.4

102.7 5.5 62.7 40

104.4 5.7 63.8 40.6

106.1 6.3 64.9 41.2

108 6.9 66.1 42

110.2 7.3 67.3 42.9

112.3 7.6 68.5 43.8

114.6 8 69.8 44.8

117.1 8.4 71 46

119.3 8.3 72.2 47.1

121.5 8.1 73.4 48.1

123.6 7.9 74.5 49

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

91.2 4.1

92.3 3.8

93.5 4

94.8 4.8

96.2 5.4

97.6 5.7

99.1 6

100.6 6.2

102.3 6.4

103.7 6.2

105.1 6

106.3 5.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.6 36.6

41 36.9

41.4 37.1

41.9 37.4

42.4 37.8

43 38.1

43.6 38.5

44.3 38.9

45 39.3

45.6 39.6

46.2 40

46.7 40.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.8 2.8

50.3 2.5

50.7 3

51.2 3.4

51.7 3.8

52.2 3.8

52.8 4

53.3 4.2

53.8 4.2

54.3 4.1

54.9 4

55.4 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1233.6 3.8

1241.7 3.3

1252.6 2.9

1263.2 3.2

1274 3.3

1283.9 3.4

1294.5 3.3

1304.5 3.3

1315 3.2

1324.3 3.1

1332.9 3

1340.9 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

43.7 0.9

43.8 -0.5

43.9 -0.4

44 1.4

44.3 1.4

44.4 1.3

44.4 1.1

44.5 1.1

44.7 1

44.9 1.2

45 1.5

45.2 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1189.9 4

1197.9 3.4

1208.7 3

1219.1 3.2

1229.7 3.3

1239.5 3.5

1250.1 3.4

1260 3.3

1270.3 3.3

1279.4 3.2

1287.9 3

1295.7 2.8

74.1 11.9

75.2 8.6

76.3 6

77.4 6.1

78.8 6.3

80.1 6.5

81.6 6.9

82.8 6.9

83.9 6.5

85 6.1

86.1 5.6

87.2 5.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

230.3 2.4

231.6 1.9

232.8 1.8

233.8 2.4

235.2 2.1

236.4 2.1

237.4 2

238.1 1.9

239 1.6

239.8 1.4

240.6 1.3

241.2 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

45 148.7 36.2

45.3 149 36.5

45.8 149.4 36.8

46.1 149.5 37.1

46.4 150.1 37.3

46.7 150.4 37.6

47.1 150.9 37.8

47.4 151 38

47.7 151.9 38.1

48.1 152.5 38.4

48.5 153.3 38.6

48.8 153.8 38.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 -0.7

23.6 -0.1

23.6 -0.1

23.7 1.1

23.8 1.3

23.9 1.4

23.9 1.4

24 1.2

24.1 1.2

24.2 1

24.2 1.3

24.3 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

73.8 2.2

74.3 2.5

74.8 3

75.3 3.4

75.8 2.8

76.2 2.6

76.6 2.4

77 2.2

77.3 2

77.7 1.9

78 1.8

78.3 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

205.1 2.5

207.3 3.4

212.1 3.8

217.8 6.9

222.9 8.7

227.3 9.7

232 9.4

236.9 8.8

242 8.5

245.4 8

248.1 6.9

250.7 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

155.6 6.2

156.4 4.1

157.6 2.9

158 2.2

158.4 1.8

158.9 1.6

159.6 1.3

160.2 1.4

160.7 1.5

161.5 1.7

162.3 1.7

163.2 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

262.4 5.6

263.9 5

265.4 4.5

266.5 2.3

267.6 2

269 1.9

270.5 1.9

271.9 2

273.4 2.2

275.1 2.3

277 2.4

278.4 2.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

42.4 2

42.7 1.5

43 2

43.1 2.4

43.3 2

43.4 1.6

43.6 1.4

43.7 1.3

43.8 1.3

44 1.3

44.1 1.2

44.2 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 6.4

14.3 2.4

14.2 -0.6

14 -3.2

14 -3.6

13.9 -2.7

13.9 -2.1

13.8 -1.5

13.8 -1.2

13.8 -0.9

13.8 -0.6

13.8 -0.3

108.2 0.8

108.7 0.9

109.1 0.4

109.5 1.5

110 1.6

110.4 1.6

111 1.8

111.7 2

112.3 2.2

113.1 2.4

113.8 2.5

114.4 2.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2489.3 2.4

2503.7 2.4

2517.9 2.4

2531.9 2.3

2546.1 2.3

2560 2.2

2573.9 2.2

2587.7 2.2

2601.7 2.2

2615.8 2.2

2629.6 2.2

2643.4 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1278.5 2.7

1284.6 2.7

1293.1 2.7

1300.5 2

1308.1 2.3

1315.1 2.4

1322 2.2

1329.1 2.2

1335 2.1

1341.3 2

1347.2 1.9

1353.2 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4

4

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

21303 14927 6377

21436 14709 6726

21412 14582 6830

21540 14438 7103

21485 14304 7181

21321 14183 7138

21292 14166 7125

21646 14202 7444

22035 14334 7701

22627 14548 8079

23194 14938 8256

23633 15298 8335

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


Palm Bay – M elbou r ne – Titusville

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.4 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $40,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $55,500. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 20,121.11 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 265,143 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.5% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 14,639 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.1 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.4 percent.

Professional and Business Services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.9 percent growth annually. The Construction and Mining sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 4.8 percent, followed by the Information and Financial sectors, both at 2.2 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with average annual growth rates of -0.6.

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

Brevard School Board hears proposal on new schools

• Health First, Inc. – 7,800

• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

• Assistant Superintendent of Facilities Operations Dane Theodore recommended a plan to the Brevard School Board to solve overcrowding problems in the county’s school districts. • The plan involves adding portable classrooms throughout the county, redrawing attendance boundaries, reopening closed schools, and building new ones. • In addition to building a $20 million elementary school in Viera and shelling out another $1 million to reopen a closed elementary school in Titusville, the plan also calls for a 12-classroom addition to Cocoa High.

Source: Florida Today, January 25, 2017


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Indian River Lagoon panel recommends $23.6M in projects

• A citizens’ committee in charge of overseeing use of a special county sales tax for the Indian River Lagoon restoration has recommended 24 projects to the Brevard County Commission. • The money comes from a special 10-year, 0.5% sales tax that voters approved in November. • The first of the projects would begin before September of this year, while others are two-year projects that would be finished in 2019.

Source: Florida Today, January 31, 2017 Port commissioners approve Wal-Mart land deal

• Port Canaveral commissioners voted unanimously to approve the sale of port-owned land to Wal-Mart Stores East for $5.75 million. The site will soon be home to a refrigerated warehouse and distribution center. • The port will make $3.8 million on the deal, as it bought the land for $1.95 million in 2014. WalMart plans to add 239 jobs at the facility.

• Port Canaveral will commit the proceeds towards paying off debt and increasing the funds in its emergency reserve account, which can be used for hurricanes or other issues. Source: Florida Today, February 22, 2017 Disney keeps largest ships at Port Canaveral for summer 2018

• Disney’s recently released summer 2018 cruise schedule shows that the Disney Dream and the Disney Fantasy will continue to operate out of Port Canaveral over the summer.

$116M FPL Barefoot Bay Solar Energy Center plan moves forward • A proposal to build a $116 million solar energy complex in Brevard County by Florida Power & Light Co. has moved further towards final approval.

• Brevard County commissioners voted unanimously to send the plan to be reviewed by state agencies. If it passes review, it could be approved for good later this spring.

• The proposed complex would provide solar energy to roughly 15,000 homes and would be one of eight similar complexes in the state. In total, the solar complexes would save FPL customers $39 million over their lifetimes. Source: Florida Today, March 2, 2017 Blue Origin books first New Glenn launch contract

• Blue Origin, an aerospace company founded by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, has secured its first customer for its New Glenn rocket. The rocket will be built in Brevard County and launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. • The customer is Paris-based Eutelsat, which plans to launch the rocket in 2021 or 2022 after the rocket finishes construction in 2020.

• Bezos has said that the goal of Blue Origin is to dramatically lower launch costs, with the eventual goal of partnering with NASA to establish a permanent human settlement on the moon. Source: Florida Today, March 8, 2017

• Meanwhile, the Disney Wonder and the Disney Magic (one of which typically resides in Port Canaveral during the winter months) will be in Alaska and Europe, respectively.

• The Dream will make three-, four-, and five-night trips out of the port, while the Fantasy will sail on seven-night voyages throughout the Caribbean. Source: Florida Today, February 22, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


Palm Bay – M elbou r ne – Titusville Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

10.0%

22000.0

4.0%

16000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

14000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment

76

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0

6.0%

225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

3

20000.0

8.0%

2.0%

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

(Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

-6.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

20.9 -0.4 9.3 11.5 19.9 -2.1 38.1 36.3 47.6 0.1

21.0 0.5 9.4 11.6 19.7 -0.8 38.0 35.7 48.0 1.0

21.8 4.1 9.5 12.3 20.2 2.5 39.1 36.2 47.8 -0.5

23.0 5.4 10.1 12.9 21.2 5.1 40.5 37.3 49.4 3.4

23.9 3.7 10.5 13.4 21.8 2.6 41.4 37.7 50.7 2.5

25.0 4.8 11.1 13.9 22.4 3.1 42.8 38.4 52.0 2.6

26.6 6.5 11.8 14.9 23.5 4.9 45.0 39.8 54.1 4.2

28.7 7.6 12.5 16.1 24.9 5.6 47.9 41.5 56.6 4.6

30.6 6.8 13.3 17.3 26.0 4.5 50.5 42.8 59.2 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 193.6 193.0 196.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.3 2.0 Manufacturing 20.9 20.1 20.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -3.8 -0.3 Nonmanufacturing 172.6 172.9 176.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.1 2.3 Construction & Mining 8.4 9.1 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 8.8 8.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.9 34.9 35.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.1 2.0 Wholesale Trade 5.2 5.5 5.5 Retail Trade 25.5 25.6 26.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.2 3.9 3.5 Information 2.3 2.1 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -5.9 11.0 Financial Activities 7.6 7.5 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 -2.2 -2.6 Prof & Business Services 28.2 27.4 28.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -2.7 3.6 Educ & Health Services 32.8 32.8 33.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.1 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 22.7 23.0 23.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 1.1 4.3 Other Services 7.4 7.5 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.6 6.2 Federal Government 6.2 6.2 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -0.6 -1.4 State & Local Government 22.1 22.3 22.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 -1.3

201.7 2.5 20.9 4.1 180.8 2.3 11.0 11.6 36.1 1.3 5.1 27.6 3.5 2.2 -7.2 7.2 -1.3 29.3 3.1 33.9 2.1 25.3 5.6 7.9 -0.9 6.2 1.5 21.7 -1.3

204.5 1.4 21.6 3.6 182.9 1.1 11.5 4.4 36.9 2.2 5.0 28.5 3.4 2.1 -6.3 7.4 2.6 28.5 -2.7 34.6 2.1 26.0 2.7 8.0 1.9 6.4 2.6 21.6 -0.8

210.0 2.7 22.3 2.9 187.7 2.6 12.1 4.6 37.8 2.6 5.1 29.1 3.5 2.2 7.9 7.6 3.5 29.6 3.8 35.3 2.1 26.8 3.2 8.2 2.6 6.4 0.0 21.6 0.3

214.3 2.1 22.5 1.2 191.8 2.2 12.7 5.5 38.2 1.0 5.2 29.1 3.6 2.2 0.5 7.8 2.1 32.0 8.0 35.6 0.9 27.0 0.9 8.2 0.2 6.1 -3.6 21.8 0.9

218.4 1.9 22.8 1.3 195.6 2.0 13.3 4.9 38.4 0.6 5.4 29.2 3.6 2.2 0.4 7.9 1.6 33.8 5.5 36.1 1.2 27.4 1.2 8.3 0.1 6.0 -1.7 22.2 1.7

221.9 1.6 23.0 1.0 198.9 1.7 13.9 4.3 38.5 0.2 5.5 29.3 3.7 2.2 0.2 8.0 1.6 34.6 2.4 36.8 2.0 27.8 1.4 8.3 0.3 6.2 2.7 22.5 1.5

568.5 1.9 257.6 -0.4 5.9 1892.0 1634.3 258.0

576.9 1.5 257.3 -0.1 5.2 1957.3 1814.6 143.0

584.3 1.3 261.0 1.4 5.0 3340.1 2851.9 488.0

591.4 1.2 263.8 1.1 4.5 4160.7 3340.9 820.0

598.7 1.2 266.4 1.0 4.1 4687.9 3657.5 1030.0

606.3 1.3 270.1 1.4 4.0 5203.2 4060.2 1143.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

547.7 0.6 262.9 -0.9 9.4 1120.1 1115.8 4.0

551.6 0.7 258.8 -1.5 8.3 1351.5 1335.9 16.0

558.1 1.2 258.6 -0.1 7.0 1268.1 1230.0 38.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


Palm Bay – M elbou r ne – Titusville

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24.5 4.3 10.8 13.7

24.8 4.6 11 13.9

25.2 5 11.1 14

25.5 5.1 11.3 14.2

25.9 5.8 11.5 14.4

26.4 6.3 11.7 14.7

26.9 6.7 11.9 15

27.3 7.1 12 15.3

27.9 7.7 12.2 15.7

28.4 7.7 12.4 16

28.9 7.6 12.6 16.3

29.4 7.5 12.8 16.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 2.5

22.3 2.9

22.6 3.3

22.8 3.6

23.1 4.3

23.4 4.7

23.7 5

24 5.3

24.4 5.7

24.7 5.7

25 5.6

25.3 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42.1 38

42.6 38.3

43 38.5

43.5 38.8

44 39.2

44.7 39.6

45.3 40

46 40.4

46.8 40.9

47.5 41.3

48.2 41.7

48.8 42

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.3 2.4

51.8 2.2

52.2 2.7

52.7 3.3

53.3 3.9

53.8 4

54.4 4.2

55 4.4

55.7 4.5

56.3 4.6

56.9 4.6

57.6 4.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

208.4 2.7

209.3 3.2

210.6 2.7

211.5 2

212.7 2

213.8 2.1

214.9 2.1

216 2.1

217.1 2.1

218 2

218.8 1.8

219.7 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 3.7

22.2 3.6

22.3 2.5

22.3 1.7

22.5 1.3

22.5 1.3

22.5 1.1

22.6 1.2

22.7 1.1

22.8 1.2

22.9 1.4

22.9 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

186.3 2.6

187.1 3.1

188.3 2.7

189.2 2.1

190.2 2.1

191.3 2.2

192.4 2.2

193.4 2.2

194.4 2.2

195.3 2.1

196 1.9

196.8 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 3.4

12 5

12.1 4.6

12.3 5.3

12.4 5.5

12.6 5.1

12.8 5.7

13 5.6

13.1 5.5

13.3 5.1

13.4 4.5

13.5 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 3.8

37.8 3.2

37.9 2

37.9 1.3

38.1 1

38.2 1

38.3 1

38.3 0.9

38.4 0.7

38.4 0.6

38.5 0.5

38.5 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 29.1 3.5

5.1 29.1 3.5

5.1 29.1 3.5

5.2 29 3.5

5.2 29.1 3.6

5.2 29.1 3.6

5.2 29.1 3.6

5.3 29.1 3.6

5.3 29.1 3.6

5.3 29.2 3.6

5.4 29.2 3.6

5.4 29.3 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 11.5

2.2 12.1

2.2 8.2

2.2 0.5

2.2 0.5

2.2 0.6

2.2 0.5

2.2 0.3

2.2 0.4

2.2 0.2

2.2 0.5

2.2 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 3.2

7.6 3.9

7.6 3.8

7.7 3

7.7 2.3

7.8 2.3

7.8 2

7.8 1.9

7.9 1.9

7.9 1.7

7.9 1.5

7.9 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.9 0.8

29.2 2.8

29.9 5.1

30.6 6.6

31.2 8

31.7 8.7

32.3 8.1

32.8 7.3

33.3 6.9

33.7 6.1

33.9 5

34.2 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

35.1 2.1

35.2 3.4

35.4 1.8

35.4 1.3

35.5 1

35.6 0.9

35.7 0.7

35.8 0.9

35.8 1

36 1.2

36.1 1.2

36.3 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 4.3

26.8 3.9

26.9 3.6

26.9 1.1

26.9 0.7

27 0.8

27.1 0.9

27.2 1

27.2 1.1

27.3 1.2

27.4 1.3

27.5 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 3.3

8.2 3.8

8.2 2.7

8.2 0.8

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.1

8.3 0.1

8.3 0.1

8.3 0.2

8.3 0.2

8.3 0

8.3 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 3.5

6.4 1.2

6.3 -0.2

6.2 -4.4

6.2 -4.7

6.2 -3.9

6.1 -3.2

6.1 -2.6

6.1 -2

6 -1.8

6 -1.6

6 -1.3

21.6 -0.1

21.6 0.3

21.6 0.2

21.7 0.7

21.7 0.7

21.8 0.7

21.9 1

21.9 1.2

22 1.5

22.2 1.8

22.3 1.8

22.4 1.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

581.6 1.3

583.4 1.3

585.2 1.3

587 1.3

588.8 1.2

590.5 1.2

592.3 1.2

594.1 1.2

595.9 1.2

597.7 1.2

599.6 1.2

601.6 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

260.1 0.7

260.5 1.9

261.5 2.3

262.2 0.9

262.8 1.1

263.5 1.2

264.1 1

264.9 1

265.4 1

266.1 1

266.7 1

267.4 0.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

5.2

5

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

2805 2467 338

3219 2788 431

3545 3011 534

3792 3141 651

3977 3238 739

4089 3301 788

4211 3377 834

4367 3447 919

4488 3516 971

4625 3594 1031

4762 3707 1055

4877 3813 1064

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.7 percent each year, the second lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,000. The average annual wage growth rate should be 4.2 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $51,000. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.9 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15,527.30 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 216,793 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.4% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,649 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforce Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

Employment growth is expected to average 1.3 percent each year, the second lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 4.0 percent. The Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 4.0 percent average annual growth rate. The Construction and Mining sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Information, Federal Government, and Other Services sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -0.7, -1.8, and -0.1 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Change to Gulf Power rate structure has big impact • Gulf Power Company is looking to increase the base rate they charge from $18.60 per month to $47.40 per month, while simultaneously lowering their per kilowatt-hour charge from 11 cents to 9.7 cents. This would generate about $106.8 million per year in revenue. • They are also planning to offer two new optional plans to offset the increase, in which consumers who limit the number of electric devices used simultaneously and those who use electricity out of peak hours would benefit. A low-income subsidy for individuals in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program would also be offered. • One group of individuals opposing this increase are retirees. The combination of an increase in healthcare costs as well as their electricity bills and Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


P ensacola – F e r ry Pass – B r ent

only a small increase in Social Security will impact their finances. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 21, 2017 Downtown, rural areas key to Pensacola’s development • Florida’s Great Northwest, an economic development organization, developed a plan for its 12 represented counties that can stimulate both the downtown and rural areas of Pensacola. • Zach Jenkins, director of the University of West Florida Haas Center for Business Research & Economic Development, believes a strong, urban core is vital to downtown development in order to draw in the younger members of the labor force. With many businesses opening soon in the downtown area, Michael Carro, principal at SVN Southland Commercial Real Estate, believes development will continue to the west of Palafox Street.

• In the more rural areas, businesses that rely less on technical skills and more labor-intensive ones would better benefit the area, in addition to important tools needed for growth, such as high-speed internet access. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 28, 2017 Gulf Power solar energy farms on target for summer launch

• Gulf Power has installed solar panels at two new solar farm locations at Eglin Air Force Base in Fort Walton Beach and at Naval Air Station Pensacola. Solar panels will later be installed at a third location in Navarre. • Gulf Power expects that once these are operational, in the long term, there will be a downward push on rates and Gulf Power will continue to utilize solar energy if it is found cost efficient and approved by the consumers.

• In total, the farms will contain 1.5 million solar panels and will increase Gulf Power’s energy created through renewable energy, which is estimated to be 9% of their total electricity generation in 2017. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 19, 2017 80

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

New downtown Pensacola hotels could mean bigger things

• Mitesh Patel plans to open two new hotels in downtown Pensacola: Aloft Hotel and Element Hotel. Both hotels are members of Marriot International Inc. and will be located in the same building. In addition to these hotels, a new Holiday Inn Express will also open in the area.

• The development of these new hotels to the area could impact the decision of replacing the Pensacola Bay Center with a structure containing event space, conference rooms, and a sports hall that could cost $80-100 million. • In terms of bringing in new travelers, Patel said, “I think with the Holiday Inn Express opening this year, hopefully ours opening next year, I think it sets a precedent that downtown Pensacola is a good place to stay while you’re in town.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 21, 2017 Strong spring tourism expected by Visit Pensacola

• Visit Pensacola, the area’s tourism marketing agency, believes tourism will thrive in the spring months based on Pensacola’s winter numbers. Tourist spending reached $1,474,439 in December, a considerable increase compared to October of that year, having a total of $16,607. • Visit Pensacola attributed much of this growth to their digital ads, which makes up 75% of their media advertising. The organization uses tools to measure the direct correlation between their digital ads and tourism in the area.

• Steve Hayes, president of Visit Pensacola, believes the largest markets that will be visiting in spring will be Dallas, Birmingham, New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston, and Nashville. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 16, 2017


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

180.0

1.2

1.4

16500.0 16000.0 15500.0 15000.0 14500.0 14000.0 13500.0 13000.0 12500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

165.0

0.0%

160.0

-2.0%

155.0 150.0

1

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

-4.0% 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-6.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


P ensacola – F e r ry Pass – B r ent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

17.0 2.6 7.3 9.8 16.2 0.9 36.8 35.0 42.1 1.9

17.1 0.1 7.4 9.7 16.0 -1.2 36.4 34.2 42.1 0.1

17.8 4.3 7.6 10.2 16.5 2.7 37.6 34.8 43.3 2.7

18.7 4.9 8.0 10.6 17.2 4.6 39.0 36.0 44.6 3.1

19.4 3.8 8.4 11.0 17.7 2.7 39.9 36.4 45.9 3.0

20.3 4.9 8.9 11.4 18.2 3.2 41.4 37.2 48.0 4.4

21.5 5.6 9.4 12.0 19.0 4.0 43.3 38.3 49.9 4.0

22.9 6.6 9.9 12.9 19.8 4.5 45.8 39.7 52.0 4.2

24.2 5.8 10.4 13.8 20.5 3.5 48.1 40.8 54.2 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 158.1 159.8 162.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 1.1 1.9 Manufacturing 5.6 5.9 6.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 5.5 2.2 Nonmanufacturing 152.6 153.9 156.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.9 1.9 Construction & Mining 9.4 9.2 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 -2.6 3.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.0 30.4 31.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.2 2.2 Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.9 5.0 Retail Trade 21.1 21.5 21.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.0 4.1 4.1 Information 2.4 2.3 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.3 -1.0 -2.5 Financial Activities 9.0 9.9 10.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 9.9 8.6 Prof & Business Services 21.3 21.5 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.9 0.6 Educ & Health Services 27.0 26.6 26.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -1.4 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 19.3 20.3 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 5.0 3.2 Other Services 5.7 5.7 6.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -0.6 5.2 Federal Government 6.8 6.6 6.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -2.4 -2.2 State & Local Government 21.6 21.4 21.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.9 0.0

167.0 2.6 6.0 0.1 161.0 2.7 9.9 4.0 31.8 2.3 5.1 22.6 4.1 2.3 0.3 11.7 8.7 22.7 4.6 27.5 2.8 21.6 3.0 5.7 -4.8 6.5 0.7 21.3 -0.1

170.2 1.9 6.1 2.0 164.0 1.9 10.0 0.8 32.2 1.4 5.2 22.8 4.2 2.2 -1.8 12.2 4.1 23.2 2.3 28.2 2.4 22.2 3.1 5.7 -0.6 6.7 2.6 21.4 0.5

173.3 1.9 6.2 0.6 167.2 1.9 10.1 1.1 33.0 2.4 5.3 23.4 4.2 2.2 -1.8 12.6 4.1 24.1 4.0 28.5 1.1 23.0 3.5 5.7 0.3 6.6 -1.6 21.3 -0.6

175.6 1.3 6.2 0.6 169.4 1.3 10.5 4.3 33.1 0.4 5.4 23.3 4.3 2.2 -0.3 12.8 1.4 25.7 6.4 28.5 0.0 23.2 0.9 5.7 -0.2 6.3 -4.2 21.4 0.2

177.6 1.1 6.2 0.6 171.4 1.1 10.9 3.8 33.1 -0.1 5.5 23.2 4.3 2.2 -0.4 12.9 0.9 26.7 4.1 28.5 0.2 23.5 1.3 5.7 -0.3 6.2 -2.3 21.6 1.0

179.1 0.9 6.3 0.5 172.9 0.9 11.3 3.2 32.9 -0.5 5.6 23.2 4.3 2.2 -0.4 13.1 0.8 27.1 1.6 28.8 0.9 23.9 1.3 5.7 -0.1 6.2 1.2 21.7 0.7

478.4 1.2 213.2 0.0 5.3 2781.6 2029.6 752.0

485.1 1.4 214.6 0.7 4.8 3051.3 2554.4 497.0

490.5 1.1 219.5 2.3 4.7 3039.5 2557.0 482.0

495.3 1.0 222.7 1.5 4.2 2357.7 1966.5 391.0

499.6 0.9 225.0 1.0 3.8 2204.5 1845.6 359.0

503.4 0.8 227.5 1.1 3.5 2421.2 2022.2 399.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

463.0 1.5 212.6 -0.4 8.2 1479.2 1462.8 16.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

468.5 1.2 212.2 -0.2 7.0 1982.3 1865.4 117.0

472.7 0.9 213.1 0.4 6.1 1829.8 1663.5 166.0


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

20 4.7 8.8 11.2

20.2 4.8 8.9 11.3

20.4 5.1 9 11.4

20.7 4.9 9.1 11.6

21 5 9.2 11.7

21.3 5.4 9.3 11.9

21.6 5.8 9.5 12.1

22 6.2 9.6 12.4

22.4 6.7 9.7 12.6

22.7 6.6 9.9 12.8

23 6.5 10 13.1

23.4 6.4 10.1 13.3

18 2.9

18.2 3.1

18.3 3.4

18.5 3.4

18.7 3.6

18.9 3.9

19.1 4.2

19.3 4.4

19.5 4.7

19.7 4.6

19.9 4.5

20.1 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.8 36.9

41.2 37.1

41.6 37.3

42 37.5

42.5 37.8

43.1 38.2

43.6 38.5

44.2 38.8

44.9 39.2

45.5 39.6

46.1 39.9

46.6 40.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.3 4.6

47.8 4.1

48.2 4.7

48.6 4.4

49.1 3.9

49.6 3.9

50.1 4

50.7 4.2

51.2 4.3

51.7 4.3

52.3 4.2

52.8 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.6 2

173 2.4

173.6 1.8

174.1 1.2

174.8 1.2

175.3 1.4

176 1.3

176.4 1.3

177 1.3

177.5 1.2

177.8 1

178.1 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.3

6.2 0.9

6.2 0.9

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.3

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.1

6.2 0.4

6.3 0.9

6.3 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

166.5 2

166.8 2.5

167.5 1.9

168 1.2

168.5 1.3

169.1 1.4

169.8 1.4

170.2 1.3

170.8 1.3

171.2 1.2

171.5 1

171.9 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10 -0.5

10.1 -0.1

10.1 1.2

10.2 3.9

10.4 3.8

10.5 4.1

10.6 4.6

10.7 4.5

10.8 4.4

10.9 4

11 3.4

11.1 3.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32.9 2.7

33 3.7

33 2.6

33 0.7

33.1 0.4

33.1 0.4

33.1 0.4

33.1 0.3

33.1 0.1

33.1 -0.1

33.1 -0.2

33 -0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 23.4 4.2

5.3 23.4 4.2

5.3 23.4 4.2

5.4 23.3 4.3

5.4 23.3 4.3

5.4 23.3 4.3

5.4 23.3 4.3

5.4 23.2 4.3

5.5 23.3 4.3

5.5 23.2 4.3

5.5 23.3 4.3

5.5 23.2 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -3.9

2.2 -1

2.2 -1.9

2.2 -0.5

2.2 -0.3

2.2 -0.2

2.2 -0.2

2.2 -0.5

2.2 -0.4

2.2 -0.6

2.2 -0.3

2.2 -0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 5.3

12.6 4.5

12.7 4.2

12.7 2.3

12.8 1.7

12.8 1.6

12.8 1.3

12.9 1.2

12.9 1.2

12.9 1

12.9 0.8

13 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 3.6

23.8 4.8

24.2 3

24.7 4.8

25.1 6.3

25.5 7.1

25.8 6.6

26.1 5.7

26.5 5.3

26.7 4.6

26.8 3.7

26.9 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.4 1.7

28.4 1

28.5 1.1

28.5 0.4

28.4 0.1

28.4 0

28.5 -0.2

28.5 -0.1

28.5 0.1

28.5 0.2

28.5 0.2

28.6 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 2.8

23 5.7

23.1 4.4

23.1 1.2

23.1 0.8

23.2 0.9

23.3 1

23.4 1.1

23.4 1.2

23.5 1.3

23.6 1.3

23.7 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 0

5.7 0.5

5.7 0.4

5.7 0.4

5.7 0

5.7 -0.3

5.7 -0.3

5.7 -0.2

5.7 -0.2

5.7 -0.2

5.7 -0.4

5.6 -0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 2

6.6 -0.6

6.5 -2.9

6.5 -5

6.4 -5.4

6.3 -4.5

6.3 -3.9

6.2 -3.2

6.3 -2.3

6.2 -2.4

6.1 -2.4

6.1 -2.3

21.3 -0.4

21.3 -0.8

21.3 -1

21.3 -0.1

21.3 0

21.3 0

21.4 0.3

21.4 0.5

21.5 0.7

21.6 1

21.6 1

21.7 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

488.7 1.2

489.9 1.1

491.1 1.1

492.4 1.1

493.6 1

494.7 1

495.9 1

497 0.9

498.1 0.9

499.1 0.9

500 0.8

501 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

218.2 1.3

218.9 3.1

220 3.3

220.9 1.5

221.7 1.6

222.4 1.6

223.1 1.4

223.8 1.3

224.3 1.2

224.8 1.1

225.3 1

225.7 0.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.9

4.8

4.6

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.2

4

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3217 2802 415

3116 2640 476

2973 2467 506

2852 2320 532

2663 2182 481

2452 2035 417

2249 1895 354

2066 1754 312

2119 1784 336

2177 1817 360

2237 1868 369

2285 1914 371

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


Tallahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.9 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $36,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $47,100. Population growth will average 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,088.77 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 190,370 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.2% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,946 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Super Market, Inc. – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee

84

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 4.3 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.3 percent annually. The Construction and Mining follows with an average growth rate of 3.3 percent. The Information and Manufacturing sectors are expected to decline by -0.8 percent and -0.1 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES TCC is banking on its Starbucks investment to boost downtown traffic

• Tallahassee Community College is investing $500,000 in owning and operating a coffee shop at its Center for Innovation on Kleman Plaza.

• TCC hopes that the Starbucks, which is set to open on January 30, will draw in downtown pedestrian traffic, provide its students with “hands-on entrepreneurial experience,” and earn a profit. • In October 2016, TCC’s Board of Trustees entered a contract with Rippee Construction, calling for the spending of no more than $996,000 on improvements for the Center for Innovation. There is an additional agreement that a maximum of $488,000 will be spent on the Starbucks location. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 10, 2017


T allahassee

Debt plan approved for College Town

• Florida State University’s Board of Trustees approved the Seminole Boosters’ request to issue taxable debt up to $46 million.

• The financial plan was made in efforts to fund the construction of College Town Phase III and the refinancing of Phase I.

• Phase III is a seven-story, mixed-use development containing 129 units and 300 beds for student housing. It also includes a 500-space parking facility, a coffee shop, and 3,700 square feet of “student innovation space.” Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 17, 2017 FSU included in Gov. Scott’s $25 million grants package for Zika research

• Governor Rick Scott announced that Florida State University would receive $2.2 million of the $25 million in state money designated for Zika research and vaccine development. • According to FSU, $1.1 million will go towards conducting human clinical trials involving the drug niclosamide. Lab research has indicated that niclosamide, which is used to treat tapeworm infections, can also be effective in combating the Zika virus.

• Professors Tarik Dickens, Hui Wang, and Carl Moore will use the money to fund “further research in advanced manufacturing utilizing collaborative robotics.” • HBCU-RISE allows FAMU and FSU to collaborate and create a research program in dimensional printing that recruits and trains underrepresented students and encourages them to pursue science and engineering Ph.D. programs Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 17, 2017 Lyft comes town

• Starting March 9, Lyft’s ride-sharing services will be made available in Tallahassee, providing another option to get home safely. • The ride-sharing company spent about a month recruiting drivers before the launch, consequently creating many job opportunities for the area. • The introduction of Lyft also means there will be increased competition for Uber, which has been servicing Tallahassee since 2014.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 8, 2017

• Another $856,750 will be used to fund efforts to understand how Zika activates a microtubuleorganizing activity in centrosomes in order to spread and to identify how to stop this process.

• Finally, $199,280 will help identify markers in pregnant mothers that will let doctors know whether or not a fetus has been infected with the virus. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 2, 2017 FAMU-FSU College of Engineering professors awarded $960,000 to conduct robotics research

• Three professors from the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering received $960,000 as recipients of the National Science Foundation Historically Black Colleges and Universities Research Infrastructure for Science and Engineering (HBCU-RISE) award. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


Tallahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

15500.0

8.0%

14000.0

6.0%

13500.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

12500.0

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

4.0%

180.0

2.0%

175.0

0.0%

170.0

-2.0%

165.0

86

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

185.0

160.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 190.0

3

15000.0 14500.0

2.0%

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

4.0%

2

-4.0% 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

-6.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

13.3 -1.5 6.8 6.4 12.6 -3.2 35.4 33.7 40.9 1.8

13.0 -1.7 6.9 6.1 12.2 -3.0 34.9 32.8 41.1 0.5

13.7 5.3 7.2 6.5 12.7 3.7 36.5 33.8 41.9 2.0

14.3 3.9 7.5 6.8 13.1 3.6 37.7 34.8 43.1 2.8

14.8 3.9 7.8 7.0 13.5 2.8 38.8 35.4 44.3 2.8

15.7 6.0 8.4 7.3 14.1 4.3 40.5 36.4 46.6 5.3

16.7 6.4 8.9 7.8 14.8 4.8 42.6 37.6 48.6 4.3

17.9 7.2 9.4 8.5 15.5 5.1 45.1 39.1 50.7 4.3

19.0 6.3 10.0 9.1 16.2 4.1 47.3 40.2 52.9 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 166.2 167.4 171.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 0.7 2.4 Manufacturing 3.1 3.1 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -2.3 -4.4 Nonmanufacturing 163.1 164.3 168.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 0.8 2.6 Construction & Mining 5.9 6.2 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 5.4 1.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.2 22.8 23.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 2.6 3.9 Wholesale Trade 3.2 3.2 3.4 Retail Trade 17.4 17.8 18.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.7 1.8 Information 3.3 3.4 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.8 12.8 Financial Activities 7.2 7.3 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 1.5 -2.7 Prof & Business Services 18.2 18.5 19.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 1.7 2.6 Educ & Health Services 19.7 19.7 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -0.3 4.8 Leisure & Hospitality 16.8 17.2 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 2.8 3.7 Other Services 9.2 8.8 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 -3.8 2.2 Federal Government 1.9 2.0 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 3.6 -2.6 State & Local Government 58.7 58.4 59.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -0.5 1.3

172.9 0.9 3.0 2.3 169.9 0.8 6.7 6.8 24.2 2.2 3.6 18.7 1.9 3.5 -9.4 6.9 -2.1 19.0 0.0 21.0 2.1 18.7 4.3 8.8 -2.3 2.0 1.8 59.1 -0.1

176.0 1.8 2.9 -4.4 173.2 1.9 6.9 2.8 24.4 1.1 3.6 18.9 2.0 3.3 -5.6 7.2 3.4 20.0 5.5 21.5 2.2 20.0 7.2 9.0 2.3 2.0 3.0 58.8 -0.6

179.6 2.0 2.8 -1.7 176.8 2.1 7.1 3.0 24.8 1.4 3.6 19.1 2.1 3.4 1.5 7.4 3.5 20.9 4.1 22.1 2.6 20.6 2.9 9.3 3.2 2.0 1.2 59.3 0.9

182.6 1.7 2.9 1.5 179.8 1.7 7.5 4.7 25.1 1.1 3.7 19.1 2.1 3.4 0.4 7.6 1.9 22.4 7.2 22.2 0.8 20.8 1.0 9.4 0.8 2.0 -3.2 59.6 0.5

185.4 1.5 2.9 1.4 182.5 1.5 7.7 3.7 25.2 0.5 3.7 19.2 2.1 3.4 0.2 7.6 1.2 23.5 4.9 22.5 1.0 21.0 1.3 9.4 0.5 1.9 -1.4 60.2 1.0

187.6 1.2 2.9 1.2 184.6 1.2 8.0 3.0 25.2 0.1 3.8 19.3 2.2 3.4 0.5 7.7 1.1 24.0 2.2 22.8 1.7 21.3 1.4 9.5 0.9 2.0 5.3 60.6 0.7

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

377.9 0.6 186.3 -1.4 5.2 971.8 739.5 232.0

382.1 1.1 187.3 0.5 4.7 1049.8 803.0 247.0

387.5 1.4 189.8 1.3 4.5 1361.9 980.2 382.0

392.6 1.3 192.2 1.3 4.0 1867.6 1132.6 735.0

397.6 1.3 194.0 0.9 3.5 2127.3 1215.6 912.0

402.6 1.3 196.1 1.0 3.3 2344.5 1355.0 990.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

374.6 0.8 188.0 -1.1 7.5 994.9 495.8 499.0

373.7 -0.2 186.9 -0.6 6.5 1183.5 611.0 572.0

375.6 0.5 188.9 1.1 5.8 1186.9 635.3 552.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


Tallahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.4 6.1 8.2 7.2

15.6 5.6 8.3 7.3

15.8 6.4 8.5 7.3

16 6.1 8.6 7.4

16.3 6 8.7 7.6

16.6 6.3 8.8 7.7

16.9 6.5 9 7.9

17.1 6.9 9.1 8

17.5 7.3 9.2 8.2

17.8 7.3 9.4 8.4

18.1 7.2 9.5 8.6

18.3 7 9.6 8.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 4.3

14 3.8

14.2 4.7

14.3 4.6

14.5 4.5

14.7 4.7

14.9 4.9

15.1 5.1

15.3 5.3

15.5 5.2

15.6 5.1

15.8 4.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.9 36

40.3 36.2

40.7 36.5

41.2 36.8

41.7 37.1

42.3 37.5

42.9 37.8

43.5 38.2

44.2 38.6

44.8 38.9

45.4 39.2

45.9 39.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.8 5.5

46.4 4.9

46.9 5.7

47.4 5.1

47.9 4.4

48.4 4.3

48.9 4.3

49.4 4.3

49.9 4.3

50.5 4.3

51 4.3

51.5 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

178.5 2.6

179.2 1.8

180 2.1

180.8 1.7

181.5 1.7

182.2 1.7

183 1.7

183.7 1.6

184.5 1.6

185.1 1.6

185.7 1.5

186.3 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 -3.5

2.8 -3.2

2.8 -1.8

2.8 1.7

2.9 1.8

2.9 1.6

2.9 1.2

2.9 1.3

2.9 1.1

2.9 1.3

2.9 1.7

2.9 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

175.7 2.7

176.4 1.9

177.2 2.1

177.9 1.7

178.7 1.7

179.4 1.7

180.2 1.7

180.8 1.6

181.6 1.6

182.2 1.6

182.8 1.4

183.3 1.4

7 1.3

7.1 2.6

7.2 3

7.2 5.2

7.3 5

7.4 4.4

7.5 4.8

7.6 4.6

7.6 4.4

7.7 3.9

7.8 3.3

7.8 3.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 1

24.8 1.5

24.8 1.7

24.9 1.5

25 1.2

25 1.1

25.1 1

25.1 1

25.2 0.7

25.2 0.5

25.2 0.4

25.2 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 19.1 2

3.6 19.1 2

3.6 19.1 2.1

3.6 19.1 2.1

3.6 19.1 2.1

3.6 19.1 2.1

3.7 19.2 2.1

3.7 19.1 2.1

3.7 19.2 2.1

3.7 19.2 2.1

3.7 19.3 2.2

3.7 19.3 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 3.6

3.4 2.4

3.3 0

3.4 0.2

3.4 0.3

3.4 0.5

3.4 0.5

3.4 0.2

3.4 0.2

3.4 0

3.4 0.3

3.4 0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 4.1

7.4 3.6

7.4 3.6

7.5 2.8

7.5 2.1

7.5 2.1

7.6 1.7

7.6 1.6

7.6 1.5

7.6 1.3

7.7 1.1

7.7 1

20.4 3.4

20.6 2.5

21 5

21.5 5.7

21.9 7.2

22.2 7.9

22.5 7.4

22.9 6.5

23.2 6.1

23.4 5.4

23.6 4.5

23.7 3.8

22 3.7

22 2.9

22.1 2.6

22.2 1.3

22.2 0.9

22.2 0.8

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.7

22.3 0.9

22.4 1

22.5 1

22.6 1.2

20.5 4.5

20.5 3.1

20.6 2.6

20.6 1.3

20.7 0.9

20.7 1

20.8 1.1

20.9 1.2

20.9 1.2

21 1.3

21.1 1.3

21.2 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 4

9.3 3.8

9.3 3.5

9.4 1.6

9.4 1.2

9.4 0.8

9.4 0.7

9.4 0.6

9.4 0.6

9.4 0.6

9.5 0.5

9.5 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 5.1

2 3.8

2 -0.1

2 -3.8

2 -4.2

2 -3.4

2 -2.8

2 -2.2

1.9 -2.4

1.9 -1.8

1.9 -1

1.9 -0.2

59.2 1.8

59.3 0.5

59.3 0.7

59.4 0.5

59.5 0.5

59.5 0.4

59.6 0.5

59.8 0.7

59.9 0.8

60.1 1.1

60.3 1.1

60.4 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

385.5 1.4

386.9 1.4

388.2 1.4

389.4 1.4

390.7 1.4

391.9 1.3

393.2 1.3

394.4 1.3

395.7 1.3

397 1.3

398.2 1.3

399.5 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

188.8 0.9

189.3 1.3

190.2 2

190.9 1.3

191.4 1.4

192 1.4

192.5 1.2

193 1.1

193.4 1

193.9 1

194.2 0.9

194.6 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

4.8

4.6

4.5

4.3

4.1

4

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.4

1115 892 224

1283 955 328

1439 1014 425

1610 1060 550

1728 1089 639

1830 1128 702

1901 1142 759

2011 1170 840

2056 1182 874

2107 1194 914

2150 1222 928

2196 1265 931

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively high growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 6.4 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $43,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be $57,600. Population growth will average 1.6 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 135,009.07 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,491,951 in January 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 5.1% as of January 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 75,954 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 5,823

Employment growth is expected to average 2.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.0 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, and the Financial and Leisure sectors at 2.6 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Port Tampa Bay considers $1.8M contract to upgrade cruise terminal

• Port Tampa Bay is mulling over a proposed contract with Reno Building LLC that would improve Terminal 6, which is used as a homeport for Royal Caribbean Cruises’ ship, Rhapsody of the Seas. • The proposed improvements include expanding the ticketing area by 7,277 square feet, which will include 32 new ticket counters and 28 new baggage tables. The proposal also seeks to increase parking. • Reno Building beat out six other Tampa-area companies to be considered for the contract.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 12, 2017

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


Tampa – St. P ete r sbu rg – Clearwate r

Why a North Carolina firm just moved its headquarters to Tampa

• BlueLine associates, a professional services firm located in Cary, North Carolina, will move to Tampa, bringing with it 150 new jobs and $2 million in investments in the local community.

• The firm will receive $900,000 in incentives from Florida’s Qualified Target Industry program, $180,000 of which will come from Tampa. The rest will come from Hillsborough County. • The new jobs will pay an average salary of $71,909, according to a press release from BlueLine. BlueLine’s president, Rocky Silvestri, says that Florida’s strong talent pool was a big factor in their relocation. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 13, 2017 Tampa Bay’s largest credit union plans hundreds of new jobs

• Suncoast Credit Union recently broke ground for a 107,176-square-foot building in which it plans to add 450 new positions over the next five years.

• Suncoast is the largest credit union in Florida, and is the 12th largest in the United States. The new office will be home to its human resources, learning and development, and lending divisions.

• The new building was designed by Holmes Hepner & Associates Architects, and the general contractor is Creative Contractors Inc. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 3, 2017. Two Tampa tech startups get $1.5 million from angel investors • Harness and Phonism, two Tampa tech startups, are receiving funding from angel investors. The deals were brokered through Tampa Bay WaVe, a nonprofit startup incubator.

• Harness, which has developed an app allowing users to “round up” debit and credit card purchases and donate the extra money to their favorite charity, received $1.2 million from a group of investors led by Santosh Govindaraju. 90

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

• Phonism, a cloud company involved in communications, is getting $350,000 from a group formed by Rich McIntyre, a Tampa attorney. Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 24, 2017 Pier construction on target to begin in May

• Despite some budget-shuffling and objections over rising costs, construction on St. Petersburg’s new pier will begin in May and is still scheduled to be finished by the end of 2018. • In their most recent vote, St. Pete’s city council moved $381,200 from the general construction budget to the pre-construction budget in order to purchase items needed to figure out how long the pier’s pilings should be. • This move does not raise the total cost but other proposals have been hotly contested, including Mayor Rick Kriseman’s proposal to use an additional $14 million for the project.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 2, 2017 St. Pete’s Williams Park gets its own business district in hopes of accessing revitalization money

• A 15-block area in downtown St. Petersburg will be rebranded as a business district, as area businesses have come together hoping to attract neighborhood grants. • Activist Justin Bean hopes that the move will prompt the city to create a Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) that includes the district, as Williams Park has suffered from crime and has also served as a gathering place for St. Pete’s homeless. • The CRA label would entitle the district to revitalization funds that are unavailable to other districts.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 6, 2017


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

150000.0

8.0%

120000.0

6.0%

110000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

100000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

90000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment 1450.0 1400.0 1350.0 1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

1.4

140000.0 130000.0

2.0%

1.2

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

4.0%

1

(Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tampa Payroll Employment

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91


Tampa – St. P ete r sbu rg – Clearwate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2017

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

113.9 -1.6 55.5 58.4 108.5 -3.3 40.0 38.1 47.8 2.6

114.0 0.1 57.3 56.8 107.2 -1.2 39.6 37.2 48.2 0.7

120.6 5.8 60.2 60.5 111.6 4.1 41.3 38.2 49.3 2.3

128.0 6.1 64.2 63.7 118.0 5.7 43.0 39.6 50.9 3.2

134.0 4.7 68.0 66.0 122.2 3.6 44.1 40.3 52.3 2.9

140.6 5.0 72.0 68.6 126.3 3.3 45.5 40.9 54.0 3.3

150.0 6.7 77.1 72.9 132.6 5.0 47.8 42.2 56.2 4.1

161.4 7.6 82.5 78.9 139.9 5.5 50.6 43.9 58.7 4.4

171.9 6.5 87.6 84.3 145.9 4.2 53.2 45.1 61.2 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1148.6 1176.3 1208.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.4 2.7 Manufacturing 59.4 60.0 61.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.0 2.0 Nonmanufacturing 1089.2 1116.3 1147.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.5 2.8 Construction & Mining 54.2 56.9 60.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 5.0 6.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 218.9 222.9 232.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.8 4.1 Wholesale Trade 48.4 48.9 50.4 Retail Trade 143.9 146.7 152.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 26.6 27.3 28.7 Information 25.7 26.1 25.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.4 -2.1 Financial Activities 95.5 99.7 101.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 2.1 Prof & Business Services 190.9 198.2 204.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 3.8 3.1 Educ & Health Services 182.3 184.6 188.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.3 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 128.3 133.3 138.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 3.9 3.9 Other Services 41.1 42.4 43.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 3.3 2.3 Federal Government 22.6 22.7 22.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 0.4 0.8 State & Local Government 129.6 129.5 129.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -0.1 0.2

1250.2 3.4 61.9 1.2 1188.3 3.6 64.4 5.8 239.6 3.3 51.4 158.4 29.7 25.7 0.5 104.1 2.3 218.7 7.1 195.2 3.6 144.8 4.6 43.2 -0.3 23.6 3.2 129.0 -0.7

1287.5 3.0 62.1 0.3 1225.4 3.1 69.0 7.2 245.0 2.3 52.3 161.9 30.9 25.6 -0.3 107.2 3.0 230.3 5.3 202.1 3.5 151.3 4.5 43.3 0.2 24.1 2.0 127.5 -1.2

1321.2 2.6 63.0 1.4 1258.3 2.7 74.3 7.7 248.9 1.6 52.5 164.0 31.7 25.5 -0.5 110.9 3.4 240.5 4.4 207.1 2.5 154.2 1.9 43.8 1.2 23.8 -1.1 129.3 1.4

1358.9 2.8 63.6 1.1 1295.2 2.9 78.6 5.7 252.1 1.3 53.5 164.8 32.3 25.7 0.6 114.4 3.2 261.6 8.8 208.7 0.8 156.2 1.3 44.2 0.8 23.1 -3.0 130.7 1.1

1393.1 2.5 64.4 1.2 1328.7 2.6 82.4 4.9 253.9 0.7 54.5 166.1 32.5 25.8 0.5 116.6 1.9 280.4 7.2 210.9 1.0 158.7 1.6 44.4 0.5 22.8 -1.3 132.9 1.7

1418.6 1.8 65.0 1.0 1353.6 1.9 86.1 4.4 254.7 0.3 55.6 167.1 32.7 25.9 0.6 118.7 1.8 289.2 3.2 214.3 1.6 161.4 1.7 44.8 0.8 23.7 4.1 134.8 1.4

2978.7 1.9 1446.9 0.6 5.1 14778.3 9755.4 5023.0

3035.9 1.9 1470.2 1.6 4.6 17233.4 11364.0 5869.0

3089.5 1.8 1497.1 1.8 4.6 19178.8 12342.0 6837.0

3140.1 1.6 1526.8 2.0 4.2 19376.3 13087.9 6288.0

3187.5 1.5 1551.1 1.6 3.8 20549.9 13949.3 6601.0

3233.5 1.4 1570.6 1.3 3.6 22683.5 15329.1 7354.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

2849.7 0.8 1411.5 0.9 8.3 9059.6 5927.3 3132.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017

2878.3 1.0 1422.5 0.8 6.9 11568.3 7251.4 4317.0

2923.1 1.6 1437.7 1.1 6.0 11690.3 7111.3 4579.0


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2017

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

137.7 4.6 70.3 67.3

139.6 4.5 71.4 68.2

141.6 5.3 72.6 69

143.7 5.5 73.8 69.9

146 6.1 75.1 70.9

148.6 6.5 76.4 72.2

151.3 6.8 77.8 73.6

154.1 7.2 79.1 74.9

157.3 7.7 80.5 76.8

160 7.7 81.9 78.2

162.8 7.6 83.1 79.6

165.4 7.3 84.4 81

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

124.3 2.8

125.5 2.8

126.9 3.5

128.3 4

130 4.6

131.7 4.9

133.5 5.2

135.3 5.4

137.5 5.7

139.2 5.7

140.8 5.5

142.3 5.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

44.8 40.5

45.3 40.7

45.7 41

46.2 41.3

46.8 41.6

47.4 42

48.1 42.4

48.8 42.8

49.6 43.4

50.3 43.7

51 44.1

51.6 44.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.3 3.2

53.8 2.9

54.3 3.4

54.8 3.6

55.3 3.9

55.9 3.9

56.5 4.1

57.1 4.3

57.8 4.4

58.4 4.4

59 4.4

59.6 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1308.7 2.7

1315.3 2.4

1325.4 2.7

1335.5 2.7

1345.6 2.8

1354 2.9

1363.4 2.9

1372.6 2.8

1382.1 2.7

1389.9 2.7

1396.9 2.5

1403.5 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

62.7 1.3

62.9 1.6

63 1.2

63.2 1.4

63.5 1.3

63.7 1.2

63.6 0.9

63.8 0.9

64.1 0.8

64.3 1

64.5 1.4

64.7 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1246 2.8

1252.4 2.4

1262.4 2.8

1272.3 2.8

1282 2.9

1290.3 3

1299.8 3

1308.8 2.9

1318 2.8

1325.6 2.7

1332.4 2.5

1338.8 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

72.9 7.8

73.9 8.4

74.7 9.4

75.8 5.4

76.9 5.5

78 5.6

79.2 6

80.2 5.8

81.1 5.4

81.9 5

82.8 4.6

83.8 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

247.6 2.2

248.5 1.6

249.4 0.9

250 1.7

251.1 1.4

251.8 1.3

252.5 1.2

252.8 1.1

253.3 0.9

253.7 0.7

254.1 0.6

254.3 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

52.1 163.8 31.4

52.3 164 31.6

52.7 164.2 31.8

53 164.1 31.9

53.2 164.6 32.1

53.4 164.7 32.3

53.7 164.9 32.3

53.9 164.9 32.4

54.1 165.5 32.4

54.4 165.8 32.5

54.6 166.3 32.6

54.8 166.6 32.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 -1.3

25.5 -0.5

25.4 -0.1

25.5 0.1

25.6 0.4

25.7 0.8

25.7 0.8

25.7 0.6

25.7 0.5

25.7 0.2

25.8 0.5

25.8 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

109.4 3.1

110.3 2.6

111.4 3.8

112.4 4.3

113.4 3.7

114 3.4

114.8 3

115.4 2.6

115.8 2.2

116.3 2

116.8 1.8

117.4 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

234.7 3.8

236.8 2.8

241.9 4.5

248.4 6.4

254.1 8.3

258.7 9.2

263.9 9.1

269.7 8.6

275.4 8.4

279.2 7.9

282.1 6.9

284.7 5.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

206.1 2.9

206.7 2.4

207.8 3.4

208 1.4

208.1 1

208.5 0.9

209 0.6

209.4 0.7

209.8 0.8

210.5 1

211.2 1

212 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

153.3 2.9

153.9 1.9

154.6 1.1

155 1.7

155.4 1.4

155.9 1.3

156.5 1.3

157.1 1.4

157.6 1.4

158.3 1.6

159.1 1.6

159.7 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

43.6 0.2

43.8 1.7

43.9 1.2

44 1.6

44.1 1.2

44.2 0.8

44.2 0.7

44.3 0.6

44.4 0.6

44.4 0.6

44.5 0.5

44.5 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 1.5

23.9 0

23.7 -2.1

23.4 -3.7

23.3 -4.1

23.2 -3.2

23 -2.7

22.9 -2

22.9 -1.7

22.8 -1.5

22.8 -1.2

22.7 -0.9

128.8 0.7

129.1 1.9

129.4 2.1

129.7 0.9

130 1

130.3 0.9

130.9 1.1

131.4 1.3

132 1.5

132.6 1.8

133.2 1.8

133.8 1.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3069.7 1.8

3083 1.8

3096.1 1.7

3109.1 1.7

3121.9 1.7

3134 1.7

3146.3 1.6

3158.3 1.6

3170 1.5

3181.7 1.5

3193.4 1.5

3205 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1486.1 1.4

1492.2 1.9

1501.2 2.3

1508.8 1.7

1516.3 2

1523.3 2.1

1530.2 1.9

1537.3 1.9

1543.2 1.8

1548.7 1.7

1553.7 1.5

1558.6 1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

18679 11854 6825

19105 12211 6894

19340 12539 6801

19591 12764 6827

19545 12913 6632

19310 12999 6311

19198 13143 6055

19452 13297 6155

19773 13496 6277

20292 13725 6567

20837 14099 6738

21297 14477 6820

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93


I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient

E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

94

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2017


SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. An award-winning forecaster, researcher and professor, Snaith has served as a consultant for governments and multi-national corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business Administration, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in national and regional media and is a sought-after speaker. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and CNNMoney.com and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Business News Network, based in Toronto. Known for his engaging presentations, Snaith earned praise from one business editor for having an “uncanny knack for making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith was named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in 2008. In 2007, he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. FOR MORE INFORMATION Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: sean.snaith@ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u

UCF Florida & Metro Forecast March 2017  
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