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Florida & Metro Forecast 2009-2039

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published June 2009


Me s s a g e F r o m Dea n T h o m a s L . K e o n

About University of Central Florida (UCF) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

When I read this forecast, one sentence in particular caught my attention. Florida’s recovery will be painfully slow! Unfortunately, that is not the news Floridians want to hear. We live in a fast-paced world. Everyone seems to be in a hurry. We take pictures on digital cameras and they come out instantly. We use e-mail or Twitter and information is received immediately. We buy tickets electronically so we don’t have to wait in line. We’ve grown accustomed to instant results, so it’s only natural that we want the economy to be fixed right away. That will not be the case in Florida. Our economic recovery will take time. Perhaps even more time than many other states in the country. I remain optimistic however, that our economy will improve…eventually. In fact, we are slowly starting to see some positive signs. It is not an easy fix, so we will have to learn to be more patient. After all, real life is not like a digital video recorder. You can’t just fast forward through the parts that you don’t like to get to the happy ending. I’m afraid we’re going to have to ride this one out!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2009-2039 June 2009 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher McGregor Love, Researcher Laura Stockbridge, Researcher Evgenia Volkonitskaya, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited. Copyright Š 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Highlights................................................................. 5 Florida Summary................................................... 6-9 Sponsor....................................................................10

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Tables..................................... 12-26 Florida Forecast Charts.....................................28-36 Florida News Summaries........................................37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach..........39-46 Gainesville........................................................ 47-54 Jacksonville.......................................................55-62 Lakeland............................................................ 63-70 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach......... 71-78 Naples-Marco Island........................................ 79-86 Ocala................................................................. 87-94 Orlando-Kissimmee........................................ 95-102 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville.....................103-110 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent........................... 111-118 Tallahassee.................................................... 119-126 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................127-134


H igh l igh t s o f t he F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2 0 0 9 -2 012 • Florida’s massive job losses will continue to accumulate through the end of 2009. After nearly three straight years of job losses, meager employment growth returns in 2010. • Payroll employment in Florida will have declined by an average of 715,000 jobs from 2007 Q1 through 2009 Q4. • Florida’s labor market is the ugly scar that will serve as a reminder of the economic trauma we have endured, and this scar will take a long time to fade. Florida’s payroll employment will not reach prerecession levels until 2014. • Unemployment rates hit double digits in Q2 of 2009 and continue to slowly climb into Q2 2010 with average unemployment peaking in that quarter at 10.7%. Unemployment will stay above 10% through 2011 Q1 and continue a painfully slow decline from its peak. Unemployment will only fall to 8.7 % by the end of 2012. • The only two sectors forecasted to average positive growth during 2009-2012 are Education and Health Services (2.2%) and Professional and Business Services (2.1%). For the latter, this average growth is driven by a surge in hiring in 2011 and 2012 while the former grows faster in the near term and growth decelerates in 2011-2012. • Florida’s housing construction sector finally bottoms out deeper than many expected in 2009 Q2, falling to just 35,352 housing starts at an annual rate. This level of starts represents only 12% of the peak number of starts it reached in 2005 Q4, a stunning 88% decline in starts from peak to trough. • Housing starts will climb at a very slow pace. In 2012 Q4, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, coming in at 166,000 starts. • Sales of existing homes have shown strength in recent months as the 12-month moving average of sales has been on the rise since August 2008. However, prices have not yet found a bottom, and until this occurs, we will still have an unstable housing sector. • House prices in many areas have fallen below replacement cost, a natural long-run floor for prices. Foreclosures and short sales have caused the housing market to overshoot the bottom just as it did the top. • The Construction sector will continue to shed jobs in 2009 and 2010 at a double-digit pace, but job losses slow in 2011 to less than 1.0%, and the bleeding slows to a trickle in 2011 when the sector loses jobs at a rate of just -0.1%. The second half of 2011 will be the first time since 2007 Q1 that Florida has added jobs in this sector. • Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth was near zero in 2007 and contracted slightly in 2008 (-0.2%). Growth will be strongly negative in 2009, contracting at -4.3% before growth reappears in 2010 Q2 and accelerates to 5.2% in 2012. • Personal income growth will contract -1.2% in 2009 before growth begins to accelerate in 2010 to 1.9%. In 2011-2012, personal income growth will average 5.4% and hit 6.1% in 2012. • Retail sales will contract for the first half of 2009. The second half of the year Florida’s consumers, still punch drunk from the painful combination of home equity stock market losses will start spending cautiously. During the 2010-2012 time frame, retail sales will steadily accelerate and grow at an average pace of 5.8% as consumer spending returns, fueled by pent-up demand. • Is government really “too big” in Florida?

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

Green shoots may be emerging, but without the fertilizer of population growth and construction, Florida’s recovery will be painfully slow.

F lo r i da’ s E c o n omy

Florida’s Labor Market will be the ugly scar that is slow to fade and serves as a reminder to us of the economic trauma we have endured.

Is Government Too Big in Florida? Fiscal conservatives across the country are suffering aneurysms in the face of an unprecedented explosion in the size of the federal government. That explosion is part of an unbelievably irresponsible set of policies that have appeared so quickly, one right after the other, that they are released as “tweets” instead of position papers. OK, maybe Twitter isn’t the official channel through which policy changes are being proposed, but the lack of detail is consistent with the 140 character limit of the latest darling of the Web 2.0. We are forecasting that another $4.5 trillion will be added to our national debt by 2012, and fiscal prudence is evidenced by a plan to reduce the deficit to “just” $500 billion in 10 years time. These kinds of policies can trigger severe hemorrhaging in those of us that do not believe that the government is some deus ex machina that can appear and solve all of our problems and meet all of our needs. I wonder if some of this frustration about the federal level of government is spilling over into state government. We just went through a legislative session where instead of raising taxes to plug some of the budget shortfall, we decide to further gut funding of higher education and allow for more teachers to be pulled from K-12 classrooms. One of the justifications or rallying cries for this shortsighted policy decision was that taxes are “too high” or government is “too big” in Florida to justify any increase in taxes. According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, Florida has the 47th lowest overall tax burden in the country (Nevada, Alaska and Wyoming are lower, but they also have big streams of non-tax revenue from gaming and minerals fees). It is hard to swallow the tax burden argument, but what about the size of government? Is it too big in Florida? The table on page 7 lists state ranking by several metrics of the size of government in Florida. The first metric looks at state expenditures as a share of Gross State Product; this adjusts the level of spending by the size of the state’s economy. By this metric, Florida has the seventh smallest government when it comes to looking at a state’s budget relative to the size of its economy as a whole, which is 8.91%. Nevada is the lowest, coming in at just 2.08%. The next metric we looked at is state government employment as a share of total employment in the state. Florida has the second smallest state government share of employment in the nation at 2.37%, and Illinois has the lowest at 2.08%. It is tough to look at that figure and come to 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

the conclusion that government is too big in this state. The next metric is per capita state government spending. Like spending as a share of Gross State Product, the per capita measure adjusts the level of spending, accounting for population size of the state. Florida comes in with the eighth lowest state spending per capita in the country with $3,633 worth of spending per person. Nevada has the lowest spending per person in the nation at $3,209. Again, Florida’s government does not look all that big by comparison. The state government is one part of the overall picture, but what about local government? We also took a look at local government employment as a share of total payroll employment, and Florida falls a bit in these rankings to the 15th lowest percentage of employment in local government at 9.51%. Illinois comes in at 30th with 10.05%, and Wyoming falls dead last with 14.21% of employees in the state working for local government. Is government too big, are taxes too high? By comparison to the other 49 states in the union the objective answer is no. If you are a hardcore anti-government or anti-tax, this data will likely not sway you. However, every decision to cut or raise taxes should be a cost-benefit analysis and ask the question, “What do we gain/lose with the change in taxes?” If you do not weigh benefits against costs, it is very easy to pursue harmful policies, and starving our state’s educational system is, in my mind, one example of doing just that.

F lo r i da’ s H o u s i n g M a r ke t Sales on the rise, but prices continue to decline

We are still forecasting housing starts will hit their nadir in the current quarter. This is good news of sorts, if the bottom were not deeper than the Mariana Trench. Just like the deepest point in the world’s oceans, the bottom in the housing market was the result of a tectonic shift in the factors that drove the housing market to record heights, and the shift caused these markets to plunge. In 2009 Q2, starts will be just 12% of what they were at the peak of the housing boom. A variety of economic and policy factors are in play that will help the housing sector move


F l o r i d a Summa r y

more quickly toward balance between supply and demand. And once that balance get closer, builders will have a greater incentive to build. This process will slowly play itself out over the next several years in concert with an economic recovery that promises to remain muted in its early stages. Those builders and developers that have survived the downturn will proceed with caution in pursuing new projects, reigned in, in part, due to their own wariness after the bust, and in part due to the limited access to financing as the credit freeze slowly thaws. Figures 2 and 3 (on page 8) depict data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) and cover the housing market through April 2009. Sales (Figure 2) and median housing prices (Figure 3) have plummeted. Any market in which there exists a surplus will see downward pressure on prices as the market feels its way toward a new equilibrium. Prices continue to fall as housing inventories remain elevated across the state, and many buyers continue to have difficulty getting loans (with some exceptions, namely FHA loans for first time buyers). However, the steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. The 12-month moving average of existing home sales in Florida has been rising since August 2008. Prices have fallen substantially, as Figure 3 clearly displays. In many parts of the state, prices have fallen below replacement costs. This is clearly a phenomenon that is short-run in nature and reflects a large number of distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales. This clearly demonstrates that we are seeing an overshooting of prices on the way down as we saw them overshoot at the top of this cycle. Mortgage rates were low; unfortunately, large federal deficits have helped to push mortgage rates up recently and threaten an already tenuous recovery process. Availability of financing still plagues the sector as it is still very difficult to get a mortgage. The faster the credit crisis is remedied, the quicker supply and demand in the housing market will move toward equilibrium and then, and only then, will prices stabilize.

Ou t l o o k f o r Florida 2009-2012 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t The Prodigal Economy Returns, but Has it Learned its Lesson? Florida’s economy continues to struggle in the midst of a recession that promises to last longer than the national recession, which in our recently released U.S. Forecast we predict will come to an end in 2009 Q3. Real GSP in Florida, the state-level analogue to real GDP, will continue to decline until 2010 Q2. The shape of the recovery in Florida will also resemble the “Gravy Boat� path of the national

States

State Gov. Local Gov. State Gov. Employment Employment Expenditures as a % of as a % of State Per as a % Total State Total State Capita of GDP employment employment Expenditures

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware

48 49 26 43 16 3 24 33

Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

12 44 21 4 9 29 20 39 37 41 25 31 27 23 45 10 35 17 1 5 14 46 19 18 30 28 36 32 22 38 34 6 15 2 11 47 8 13 50 40 42

Florida

7

37 49 9 44 11 12 31 48

2

36 44 31 12 43 27 11 2

15

44 50 16 36 25 3 41 47

8

26 30 12 50 1 46 29 41 9 1 25 7 10 10 6 19 38 26 13 48 15 36 13 31 45 37 42 30 23 35 27 9 29 14 4 40 18 22 14 7 16 27 40 49 28 23 21 5 39 28 24 20 40 21 5 5 1 17 8 4 22 26 30 47 47 43 8 46 37 32 33 17 41 29 32 4 24 22 43 45 33 25 32 34 3 6 20 21 3 39 38 34 19 24 39 11 15 18 13 16 42 2 33 7 10 46 17 45 28 19 18 34 35 23 42 20 49 6 14 38 35 50 48 Note: Higher rankings mean smaller government Ranking of 1 = smallest value in the 50 states

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F l o r i d a Summa r y Figure 3. Median Housing Prices

Figure 2. Housing Sales

Florida

Florida

Florida

Florida Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

$300,000.00

30000 25000

Median Sales Price

Realtor Sales

$250,000.00

Moving Average

20000

$200,000.00

15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors 0

$50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors $-

9

8

rate in 2009 before averaging a healthier 3.4% growth rate during 2011-2012. Real disposable income growth will continue to be depressed by the floundering economy, though price deflation and tax cuts have boosted real disposable income growth in 2009 to 1.2%. A continued worsening of Florida’s labor markets will be marked by expected unemployment rates of 10.7%, remaining in double-digits until 2011 Q2. This will result in a deceleration of growth to just 0.5% in 2010. In 2011-2012, the economy fully emergent from recession, real disposable income will expand at an average pace of 2.4%. Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, like their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and evaporating stock market wealth. Wealth represents access to future income and, thus, consumption, and with so much wealth destroyed, consumers have cut back on spending and have been working to try and rebuild nest eggs that may only be 50% of what they once were. This has resulted in a jump in the national saving rate that was once negative and now is between 4% and 5%. A consumer that feels poorer and who is saving more of his or her income to replenish shrunken nest eggs is a consumer who is not spending. Reluctant consumers will peek their heads out of their shells in the second half of 2009 but are unlikely to stick their necks all the way out and begin spending in large amounts. With Florida’s labor markets remaining in a dismal state for a prolonged period, consumers will be sluggish in their spending. Consumer confidence has shown some life and the stock market has bounced back from the lows touched at the height of the crisis. None of this, of course, warrants a spending spree, but spending should respond to the passing of the worst part of the recession and the abject fear and panic that coincided with it. Retail sales in Florida will contract in the first half of 2009, but a long slow road to recovery sets in during the second half of the year. While spending will be on the uptick in 2009 Q4,

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Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

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Personal income growth continues a deceleration that began in 2007 and will continue through 2009, when personal income contracts at a -1.2% rate. Starting in 2010, personal income growth will exhibit a steady acceleration as the economy begins to gain momentum and finally grows robustly once again after emerging from the longest recession in decades. In 2011, personal income growth is expected to rise to 4.4% and then in 2012 reaches a healthy 6.1% rate of expansion. Soaring energy prices and a deepening of the recession conspired to cause real personal income to contract in 2008 at -0.9%. Real personal income is expected to fall at the same

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economy. Growth will be muted in the first couple of quarters and accelerate slowly in this expansion. Real GSP growth will hit 3.4% in 2011 and then rise further to 4.7% as the economy begins to hit on all cylinders once again. The 3.0%-plus growth rate in 2011 will be the first time since 2006 that Florida’s real GSP growth has been in excess of 3.0%. Although no feast is planned, it will be a welcome return of healthy growth to Florida’s economy after a very difficult and protracted recession. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $818.7 billion by 2012, as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold that has been getting pushed further into the future. It is a crossing we have now pushed back until 2016 when we forecast GSP to finally break the trillion-dollar mark. To put some perspective on the size of Florida’s economy, consider this. If Florida were its own country, GSP in 2008 of $743 billion would rank it the 17th largest economy in the world. This is according to an International Monetary Fund database and would put Florida ahead of Turkey, Poland, and Indonesia.

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Moving Average


F l o r i d a Summa r y

it is looking like another difficult shopping season for retailers as retail sales will actually be lower than they were in the 4th quarter of 2008. The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a domestic automotive industry in shambles will conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall for a fourth straight year in 2009. After four years of declines, we are forecasting new vehicle registrations to grow slightly again in the later half of 2009, but total registrations will be nearly 50% less than levels reached in 2004. In 2010, 2011, and 2012, an improving economy and the need to replace many vehicles in the aging fleet currently on the road (median age of cars in America is now 9.2 years and 7.1 years for light trucks) will help to drive new vehicle registration growth higher. In 2012, registration levels will hit 1.18 million, putting 2012 levels on par with those recorded in 1997. This level of registrations is 81% of the peak level reached in 2005.

E mp l o y me n t Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by -4.6% for 2009; this figure is compared to the national job growth of -3.7% for the same year. Job losses in Florida will persist into the 2nd quarter of 2010. Even though payrolls will begin to grow in the second half of the year, the full year will see negative job growth of -0.4%. Once payroll growth takes root, it will slowly gain momentum throughout 2011, a year when job growth is expected to come in at 1.6% and reach 3.0% in 2012. When job growth finally does turn positive in the 2nd quarter of 2010, it will be after nearly three full years of job losses. The Construction sector, which has been collapsing since peaking in 2006 during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the credit freeze and a further deterioration of commercial construction markets. The bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth but not enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will be the worst-performing sector in the economy on average through 2012 as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector will reach nearly 318,000 by the end of the job losses, after which an initially slow recovery in Construction will start to gain momentum. Job growth will not return to this sector until the 3rd quarter of 2011. Growth is expected to surge to 7.4% in 2012 as the commercial sector joins the residential sector in recovery and the overall economic turnaround is in full swing. The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that, once the economy gets past the recession, will resume robust growth in Florida. In 2010, job growth is expected to rise to 0.6% after two-and-a-half years of job losses. Job gains accelerate from there and rise to 8.8% in 2011 and 2012. The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the fourth quarter of 2010; newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural change gripping the industry, advertising

revenues that have fallen off dramatically, and major papers and publishing groups are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. 2011 will be the first year of job growth in this sector after eight of the nine prior years witnessed job losses, including five straight years of job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will surge to 3.4% in 2011 and slow, but pull back slightly in 2012, as the industry struggles to find the right business model. The one sector that has continued to create jobs during this recession thus far and is expected to continue to expand through the duration of the worst recession in decades is the Health and Education sector. During 2009-2012, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.2%. What is even more remarkable is that the average growth rate for payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be -0.1%. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through 2010. The dual forces of globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have conspired to shrink employment in this sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 2.2% in this sector for the full year in 2011, and this will be followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012 when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 4.4%. For the first time since the mid 1990’s, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in two consecutive years. The weakening dollar, part of our U.S. Forecast, will help make American manufactured goods more competitive overseas. The fallout from the collapse of the U.S. automotive industry imparts a fair amount of uncertainty over this particular sector’s forecast.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state plunged to levels that seemed impossibly and unsustainably low during the housing boom (and indeed they were). Florida’s unemployment rate was more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate. The housing blessing soon became a curse, one that will take years to lift. Unemployment in Florida has now surged higher than the national rate of unemployment, though we expect that the national rate of unemployment will remain below Florida’s rate, though both will peak in 2010. After the peak, Florida’s unemployment rate will decline more slowly and remain above the national unemployment rate as the gravy boat recovery plays itself out. How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to rise to 10.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 and remain above 10% until mid 2011. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2012. There is no reason to believe that there will be a rapid reversal in the unemployment rate over the forecast horizon without a boost from the usual suspects: population growth and a construction boom.

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In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com


Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2001

2002

2003

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 6.6 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 0.7 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 3.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2005

2006

2007

2008

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 614.4 668.5 10.0 8.6 8.8 6.1 5.6 7.1 521.8 550.6 582.9 7.1 5.5 5.9 11.8 5.9 7.9 471.1 489.2 517.2 6.5 3.9 5.7 11.8 5.9 7.9 607.3 670.2 716.5 8.6 10.4 6.9 548.6 588.8 609.8 5.4 7.3 3.6

699.2 4.6 6.1 594.2 2.0 1.4 524.7 1.5 1.4 734.5 2.5 609.9 0.0

716.1 2.4 3.8 588.9 -0.9 2.5 524.4 0.0 2.5 743.1 1.2 604.5 -0.9

Ju n e 2 0 0 9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 9.4 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 -8.3 5.8 5.3 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2004

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

Population and Migration 16380.5 16686.2 16989.6 17362.5 17737.0 18032.9 18212.3 18344.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 66.0 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 18.7 6.8 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -11.4

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

2.5

1.7

2.6

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 211.6 61.3

204.8 156.3 48.5

101.6 74.7 26.9

62.3 42.0 20.4

Consumer Prices 3.0 4.5 4.2

3.4

3.9


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2001

2002

2003

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 6.6 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 0.7 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 3.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 614.4 668.5 10.0 8.6 8.8 6.1 5.6 7.1 521.8 550.6 582.9 7.1 5.5 5.9 11.8 5.9 7.9 471.1 489.2 517.2 6.5 3.9 5.7 11.8 5.9 7.9 607.3 670.2 716.5 8.6 10.4 6.9 548.6 588.8 609.8 5.4 7.3 3.6

699.2 4.6 6.1 594.2 2.0 1.4 524.7 1.5 1.4 734.5 2.5 609.9 0.0

716.1 2.4 3.8 588.9 -0.9 2.5 524.4 0.0 2.5 743.1 1.2 604.5 -0.9

707.4 -1.2 -0.2 583.4 -0.9 -3.0 530.5 1.2 -3.0 721.4 -2.9 578.7 -4.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8

-4.1 0.0 10.0 9.2

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) 0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 9.4 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 -8.3 5.8 5.3 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

-3.7 -4.6 -5.9 -18.0 -11.9 -9.6 -13.1 -4.2 -3.6 -4.8 -2.5 -9.8 2.3 -2.5 -7.0 -0.6 -0.5

Population and Migration 16380.5 16686.2 16989.6 17362.5 17737.0 18032.9 18212.3 18344.3 18447.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 66.0 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 18.7 4.1 6.8 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -11.4 -78.3

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

2.5

1.7

2.6

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 211.6 61.3

204.8 156.3 48.5

101.6 74.7 26.9

62.3 42.0 20.4

40.4 27.7 12.7

Consumer Prices 3.0 4.5 4.2

3.4

3.9

-1.0

Continued 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2010

2011

2012

2013

2016

2017

2018

2019

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

720.7 1.9 2.0 587.7 0.7 3.1 532.8 0.5 3.1 736.9 2.2 585.2 1.1

752.4 4.4 4.0 602.7 2.5 5.8 542.2 1.8 5.8 771.8 4.7 605.2 3.4

798.2 6.1 5.1 628.0 4.2 6.1 559.1 3.1 6.1 818.7 6.1 633.4 4.7

Personal Income and GSP 849.6 901.8 960.9 1021.0 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.3 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.2 656.2 684.6 716.7 747.5 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.3 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.5 574.5 599.0 628.2 655.2 2.8 4.3 4.9 4.3 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.5 864.1 910.1 966.5 1022.5 5.5 5.3 6.2 5.8 657.4 679.1 707.3 734.0 3.8 3.3 4.1 3.8

1084.1 6.2 5.2 778.4 4.1 5.7 682.0 4.1 5.7 1081.0 5.7 761.4 3.7

1154.6 6.5 5.4 812.7 4.4 6.2 711.9 4.4 6.2 1147.1 6.1 792.5 4.1

1233.9 6.9 5.7 851.8 4.8 7.0 746.0 4.8 7.0 1216.9 6.1 825.2 4.1

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-0.3 0.3 10.6 10.1

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2014

2015

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 9.8 9.1 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.6 9.6 8.6 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.5

2.0 1.5 6.1 6.1

2.0 1.5 5.6 5.6

1.1 2.3 -2.7 4.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.7 6.8 1.8 0.2 2.0 0.8 1.0

1.1 2.3 -2.7 3.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 2.6 2.7 0.9 1.1 6.1 1.7 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.0

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) -0.6 -0.4 -5.4 -10.1 -6.6 -4.9 -7.3 -0.4 -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.4 0.0 -4.6 3.2 -0.5

1.4 1.6 -1.4 -0.9 2.2 -1.3 4.0 2.2 1.2 -1.2 0.7 8.8 2.1 0.1 3.4 -4.3 -0.3

2.4 3.0 1.0 7.4 4.4 0.1 6.5 5.7 5.1 0.7 2.4 8.8 1.2 1.3 -0.2 0.0 1.1

2.0 2.8 0.7 7.0 3.6 0.5 5.0 5.1 5.3 2.4 1.4 5.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 2.5

1.2 2.2 -0.8 5.7 1.3 0.1 1.8 3.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 4.5 2.1 0.3 1.7 0.3 1.2

1.1 2.4 -1.1 4.9 0.2 -0.2 0.5 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.0 6.7 2.4 0.0 1.6 0.6 1.1

1.1 2.1 -2.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 3.0 1.5 0.1 0.9 6.1 2.5 0.4 2.3 0.8 1.0

1.1 2.0 -2.8 3.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 2.9 1.6 -0.2 0.7 6.1 2.1 0.4 2.1 0.8 1.0

Population and Migration 18532.7 18664.3 18849.1 19086.3 19360.7 19663.6 19986.9 20323.4 20668.1 21018.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 13.0 24.9 37.9 49.3 56.7 62.5 66.1 68.2 69.2 69.7 221.2 94.3 52.7 30.8 15.3 10.2 5.7 3.2 1.4 0.8

74.7 58.4 16.4

118.7 99.9 18.8

156.0 128.7 27.3

170.3 136.9 33.4

Housing 175.9 186.6 139.7 143.2 36.3 43.4

193.1 144.9 48.2

195.6 144.1 51.5

199.0 144.0 55.0

204.5 144.4 60.1

1.7

2.4

2.5

2.4

Consumer Prices 2.2 2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2020

2021

2022

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

1321.7 7.1 5.7 895.6 5.1 6.9 785.1 5.2 6.9 1290.9 6.1 858.7 4.0

1413.3 6.9 5.7 940.2 5.0 6.7 824.6 5.0 6.7 1368.3 6.0 892.9 4.0

1506.9 6.6 5.5 984.8 4.7 6.3 863.6 4.7 6.3 1447.2 5.8 926.4 3.7

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.9 1.4 5.2 5.1

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Personal Income and GSP 1603.8 1703.1 1806.7 1915.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 1029.3 1073.2 1118.0 1163.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 902.1 939.9 978.5 1017.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 1526.4 1608.7 1697.6 1789.3 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 958.5 991.2 1026.9 1062.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5

2028.8 5.9 4.8 1209.8 4.0 5.0 1056.9 3.9 5.0 1884.3 5.3 1098.4 3.4

2147.8 5.9 4.8 1256.4 3.9 4.9 1096.6 3.8 4.9 1984.5 5.3 1135.2 3.3

2270.5 5.7 4.7 1303.1 3.7 4.7 1136.2 3.6 4.7 2088.9 5.3 1172.8 3.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

1.6 1.7 4.9 4.7

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.8

0.9 2.0 -0.8 2.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 4.4 1.2 1.0 2.6 0.8 0.9

0.9 2.0 -0.8 2.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 4.2 1.3 1.2 2.8 0.8 0.8

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) 1.2 2.2 -2.1 2.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1.8 2.9 1.2 1.5 5.4 1.6 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.1

1.0 2.0 -1.7 2.9 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.3 4.8 1.3 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.1

0.9 1.9 -1.8 2.7 -1.5 -1.0 -1.7 2.1 2.5 0.9 1.1 4.2 1.2 0.9 1.8 0.8 1.0

0.9 1.8 -1.8 2.7 -1.4 -1.0 -1.5 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 4.0 1.3 0.9 2.0 0.8 1.0

0.9 1.8 -1.5 2.7 -1.2 -0.9 -1.3 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.9 4.1 1.3 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.9

1.0 2.0 -1.1 3.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 1.9 1.9 0.8 1.2 4.4 1.1 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.9

0.9 1.9 -0.7 3.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 1.1 4.2 1.1 0.9 2.3 0.8 0.9

0.9 1.9 -0.7 2.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.0 4.1 1.2 1.0 2.5 0.8 0.9

Population and Migration 21372.5 21731.6 22095.1 22462.9 22834.9 23211.0 23591.0 23974.9 24362.9 24753.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 70.3 70.8 71.4 71.9 72.5 73.0 73.6 74.1 74.7 75.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

209.2 144.2 65.0

210.5 142.5 68.0

209.5 140.8 68.7

207.7 139.8 68.0

Housing 206.8 208.7 139.1 140.9 67.7 67.8

208.8 140.9 67.9

206.9 138.7 68.2

203.9 135.4 68.5

202.3 133.5 68.8

2.1

1.9

1.9

2.0

Consumer Prices 2.0 2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

Continued 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2030

2031

2032

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

2398.8 5.6 4.7 1350.2 3.6 4.9 1176.1 3.5 4.9 2198.8 5.3 1211.2 3.3

2529.5 5.5 4.5 1396.4 3.4 4.7 1215.4 3.3 4.7 2309.1 5.0 1248.0 3.0

2666.4 5.4 4.5 1443.6 3.4 4.6 1255.5 3.3 4.6 2422.4 4.9 1284.6 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.8

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Personal Income and GSP 2810.0 2963.5 3127.0 3303.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 1492.5 1544.4 1599.2 1657.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 1296.7 1340.4 1386.0 1434.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 2542.0 2669.6 2803.8 2947.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 1323.4 1364.5 1407.2 1452.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2

3494.1 5.8 4.5 1720.5 3.8 4.6 1487.2 3.7 4.6 3099.6 5.2 1498.7 3.2

3697.2 5.8 4.5 1786.4 3.8 4.6 1542.3 3.7 4.6 3262.1 5.2 1547.6 3.3

3911.9 5.8 4.5 1854.5 3.8 4.6 1599.4 3.7 4.6 3434.3 5.3 1598.5 3.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.7

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.7

1.0 2.1 -0.3 2.2 0.1 -1.0 0.5 -0.7 0.2 1.0 1.2 4.6 0.8 1.2 2.8 0.8 0.8

1.0 2.1 -0.6 2.3 0.2 -0.9 0.7 -0.7 0.2 0.9 1.2 4.8 0.7 1.1 2.9 0.7 0.9

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) 1.0 1.9 -0.8 2.8 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 3.6 1.3 1.1 2.7 3.5 0.8

0.8 1.5 -1.0 2.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 2.9 1.1 1.1 2.6 -1.7 0.7

0.8 1.5 -1.0 2.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.9 2.5 0.8 0.7

0.7 1.5 -1.1 2.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.8

0.8 1.6 -0.9 1.8 -0.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.9 1.2 3.3 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.8 0.7

0.8 1.6 -0.7 1.8 -0.5 -1.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.2 3.5 0.9 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.8

0.8 1.7 -0.6 2.0 -0.4 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.1 3.8 0.8 0.9 2.4 0.8 0.8

1.0 2.0 -0.3 2.2 -0.2 -1.0 0.2 -0.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 4.4 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.8

Population and Migration 25146.0 25540.5 25937.0 26335.4 26735.8 27138.1 27542.5 27949.4 28359.3 28773.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 75.8 76.3 76.8 77.3 77.8 78.3 78.8 79.4 79.9 80.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1

203.4 134.1 69.3

201.9 133.3 68.5

199.1 130.5 68.6

198.5 129.8 68.7

Housing 199.8 200.4 130.5 131.2 69.3 69.3

200.7 131.6 69.1

201.3 131.3 70.0

200.8 130.8 70.1

200.8 130.6 70.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

Consumer Prices 2.0 2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

710.8 -1.5 -0.3 586.6 -1.2 -3.8 533.8 0.8 -3.8 719.3 -3.5 577.7 -5.2

703.4 -2.0 -1.0 580.5 -0.5 -4.4 529.2 1.8 -4.4 718.7 -4.0 576.3 -4.9

705.7 -1.1 -0.3 581.1 -1.1 -2.3 530.3 1.6 -2.3 721.3 -1.9 577.5 -2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-3.9 0.6 10.0 9.2

-4.5 -0.4 10.3 9.6

-4.6 -1.1 10.5 9.9

710.6 0.1 0.8 583.2 -0.4 0.1 528.2 -0.1 0.1 725.6 -0.1 578.9 -0.7

716.8 0.8 1.1 585.7 -0.1 3.1 531.1 -0.5 3.1 732.9 1.9 583.0 0.9

Personal Income and GSP 724.3 731.1 738.4 746.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.2 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.9 589.4 592.4 595.7 599.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 535.1 537.0 536.2 539.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 740.1 749.0 756.9 766.6 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.6 586.8 592.1 596.2 602.0 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.3

756.9 4.5 4.2 604.8 2.6 5.9 544.1 1.7 5.9 776.6 4.9 608.1 3.6

767.4 5.0 4.4 610.5 3.1 5.5 548.9 2.2 5.5 787.1 5.1 614.7 3.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) -1.6 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.5 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.2

779.2 5.5 4.7 617.3 3.6 5.7 551.1 2.8 5.7 799.7 5.7 622.0 4.3

791.9 6.0 5.1 624.7 4.2 5.9 557.1 3.2 5.9 812.8 6.0 630.1 4.7

804.8 6.3 5.3 631.8 4.5 6.3 561.9 3.3 6.3 825.2 6.3 637.4 4.8

816.8 6.4 5.4 638.2 4.5 6.5 566.3 3.2 6.5 837.0 6.3 644.2 4.8

1.5 0.7 9.5 9.0

1.6 0.8 9.2 8.7

1.9 0.9 8.9 8.4

1.9 1.0 8.7 8.2

2.2 2.6 -0.1 6.0 4.3 -0.1 6.6 5.2 4.5 -0.6 2.1 8.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 -0.4 0.1

2.4 3.0 0.9 7.4 4.6 0.1 6.8 5.6 5.0 0.6 2.5 8.9 1.3 1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.8

2.5 3.3 1.5 8.0 4.4 0.3 6.4 6.0 5.2 1.5 2.6 9.1 1.0 1.5 -0.4 0.1 1.3

2.6 3.3 1.6 8.0 4.1 0.3 6.0 6.2 5.6 1.4 2.5 8.6 1.0 1.6 0.1 0.3 2.1

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

-4.0 -5.1 -3.7 -19.0 -11.2 -10.2 -11.8 -5.9 -3.9 -5.9 -2.8 -10.6 2.3 -3.4 -7.3 0.2 -0.2

-4.2 -4.8 -6.1 -17.3 -13.4 -9.8 -15.2 -4.0 -4.2 -4.9 -2.2 -10.7 2.6 -2.5 -7.8 -1.6 -0.7

-3.5 -3.6 -9.0 -16.0 -14.1 -8.3 -16.8 -1.2 -2.9 -2.7 -1.2 -9.0 2.2 -0.7 -5.8 -1.3 -0.5

-2.1 -2.0 -8.6 -12.2 -11.9 -6.3 -14.6 -1.6 -2.1 -1.2 -0.2 -4.2 2.8 -0.6 -5.8 0.5 -0.5

-0.7 -0.6 -6.4 -10.5 -8.7 -5.5 -10.3 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.4 -0.6 3.4 0.0 -6.2 8.8 -0.4

0.0 0.2 -4.2 -9.9 -4.4 -4.5 -4.4 0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.3 2.2 3.7 0.4 -4.4 3.6 -0.4

0.5 0.7 -2.5 -7.7 -1.2 -3.5 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 0.5 -0.1 4.8 3.6 0.0 -1.9 0.0 -0.6

0.9 1.0 -1.5 -5.8 0.3 -2.5 1.8 0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 7.5 2.7 -0.1 1.7 -2.1 -0.5

1.2 1.3 -1.8 -2.3 2.0 -1.6 3.8 1.5 0.3 -1.3 0.3 9.2 2.2 0.0 4.9 -10.0 -0.4

1.6 1.8 -1.4 1.2 2.9 -0.9 4.8 2.8 1.8 -1.9 1.0 9.6 1.8 0.0 4.7 -4.1 -0.3

1.9 2.2 -0.7 3.5 3.7 -0.4 5.8 4.2 3.3 -1.3 1.6 8.8 1.6 0.5 2.5 -0.9 -0.1

Population and Migration Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

18439.1 18455.4 18472.2 18494.5 18518.1 18544.2 18573.8 18606.9 18642.9 18682.4 18725.1 18771.3 18820.8 18873.7 18930.6

0.6 3.7 -80.2

0.5 3.8 -79.9

0.4 4.4 -77.0

0.4 10.0 132.6

0.4 11.3 205.4

0.5 13.7 260.5

0.5 17.0 286.4

0.6 20.4 104.2

0.7 23.2 105.4

0.7 26.4 93.0

0.8 29.7 74.5

0.9 32.9 61.1

1.0 36.1 55.6

1.0 39.3 48.8

1.1 43.2 45.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

35.4 24.4 10.9

37.2 27.0 10.2

49.5 34.6 14.9

60.6 44.8 15.8

68.4 52.7 15.7

79.6 62.9 16.7

90.4 73.1 17.3

Housing 101.3 84.1 17.2

113.8 96.0 17.8

124.9 105.8 19.1

134.6 113.7 20.9

143.3 120.0 23.3

153.0 127.4 25.7

161.6 132.8 28.8

166.1 134.7 31.4

(%Ch Year ago)

-1.2

-2.6

-0.1

0.9

1.6

2.0

Consumer Prices 2.2 2.3 2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7401.6 7353.8 7344.1 7347.6 7360.7 7370.0 7392.0 7422.9 7459.5 7501.6 7551.7 7613.6 7681.0 7745.5 7803.0

Manufacturing

333.7

319.7

310.8

307.5

304.7

305.6

307.0

308.4

310.7

314.3

318.3

321.8

325.0

328.2

331.5

Durable Goods

222.9

210.8

203.5

201.5

200.0

201.6

203.5

205.2

207.6

211.2

215.2

218.7

221.8

224.8

228.1

Wood Products

11.6

11.0

10.9

11.0

11.2

11.7

12.0

12.3

12.6

12.9

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.7

13.9

Computer & Electronics

45.2

42.8

41.6

42.1

42.6

43.1

43.3

43.1

43.2

43.5

43.8

44.2

44.4

44.7

45.0

Transportation Equipment

39.2

38.3

37.6

37.5

37.4

37.5

37.7

38.0

38.4

38.8

39.3

39.7

40.1

40.4

40.8

110.8

108.8

107.2

105.9

104.7

104.0

103.5

103.3

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.2

103.3

103.4

27.4

27.0

26.9

26.8

26.8

26.8

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.6

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.8

26.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

7067.8 7034.1 7033.3 7040.1 7056.0 7064.4 7085.1 7114.4 7148.8 7187.3 7233.4 7291.8 7356.0 7417.3 7471.5 6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

423.7

411.8

399.7

390.3

379.3

371.1

369.1

367.6

370.5

375.5

381.9

389.7

398.1

405.4

412.5 257.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

233.2

232.1

232.7

233.0

232.7

232.7

232.5

233.6

236.1

239.3

242.3

245.8

249.4

253.5

Wholesale Trade

334.6

333.2

334.1

333.4

332.8

331.9

330.7

331.1

333.8

337.7

341.7

345.9

350.6

355.4

360.7

Retail Trade

938.6

936.3

935.3

938.9

941.2

942.0

940.1

936.1

928.5

924.2

927.5

930.2

933.8

938.0

940.9

145.7

143.0

141.8

139.5

136.6

136.7

139.1

141.9

143.3

143.1

142.6

142.4

142.4

142.5

142.7

Information Prof. & Business Services

1033.9 1019.3 1021.1 1022.5 1027.8 1042.1 1070.5 1098.8 1122.2 1142.5 1164.6 1194.0 1221.9 1246.8 1264.4

Admin. & Support

525.5

516.0

525.7

532.5

541.2

555.8

578.3

601.6

618.6

632.7

648.3

668.9

690.5

707.6

717.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

428.2

423.7

415.8

410.2

406.6

406.2

411.6

416.3

422.3

428.1

434.0

442.4

448.1

455.4

462.5

80.2

79.6

79.6

79.8

80.0

80.1

80.6

80.9

81.3

81.7

82.2

82.8

83.3

83.7

84.1

512.8

512.3

514.0

515.0

514.6

513.6

513.5

514.1

516.1

518.6

521.6

524.9

528.9

532.2

534.6

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent

173.4

173.6

174.7

175.8

175.8

176.0

176.3

176.7

177.2

177.8

178.5

179.2

180.0

180.7

181.3

Fin. & Insurance

339.4

338.7

339.4

339.2

338.8

337.6

337.3

337.5

338.8

340.7

343.1

345.7

348.9

351.5

353.3

Edu. & Health Service

1067.0 1074.5 1080.7 1091.8 1103.8 1114.7 1120.1 1121.7 1128.2 1134.7 1137.7 1139.6 1142.9 1146.3 1149.0

Education Services

139.0

138.8

139.4

140.2

140.1

140.3

140.5

140.2

139.9

139.6

139.3

Health Services

928.0

935.6

941.3

951.5

963.6

974.3

979.6

981.5

988.3

995.1

998.5 1000.7 1004.0 1007.3 1009.9

Leisure & Hospitality

918.7

916.6

917.6

917.3

918.7

920.1

917.6

916.8

918.3

919.8

922.5

926.2

929.8

933.4

937.7

Other Services

329.6

327.9

330.4

331.3

331.4

332.5

332.4

333.1

333.3

333.6

333.4

332.9

332.1

332.4

333.0

Government

139.0

139.0

139.1

139.1

1123.9 1121.2 1120.2 1121.4 1131.5 1121.4 1113.8 1114.0 1113.0 1112.8 1112.0 1114.5 1120.6 1125.8 1132.9

Federal Gov't.

129.8

127.9

128.1

130.1

141.2

132.4

128.1

127.4

127.1

127.0

126.9

127.0

127.0

127.1

State & Local Gov't.

994.1

993.3

992.1

991.3

990.2

988.9

985.7

986.6

985.9

985.8

985.1

987.6

993.5

998.7 1005.7

127.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7160.0

7169.1

7250.4

7499.3

7800.0

8002.4

8018.5

7761.1

7399.8

Manufacturing

443.4

416.7

409.8

410.7

415.5

416.4

399.0

372.6

328.3

Durable Goods

297.8

276.5

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

250.9

218.3

Wood Products

17.2

18.1

17.6

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

13.0

11.3

Computer & Electronics

67.2

59.1

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.2

Transportation Equipment

49.1

44.4

43.8

44.4

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

39.0

145.6

140.2

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

110.0

34.6

34.6

34.1

33.3

32.4

31.2

31.4

29.5

27.2

6716.6

6752.4

6840.5

7088.6

7384.6

7586.0

7619.5

7388.5

7071.4

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.4

6.0

Construction

469.6

475.1

519.7

568.5

633.1

677.9

618.5

512.8

419.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

243.8

236.8

234.7

238.3

247.3

250.9

251.0

244.1

233.7

Wholesale Trade

316.4

315.7

317.3

328.0

341.4

351.4

356.7

348.1

335.6

Retail Trade

933.0

921.6

928.4

953.7

993.1

1012.8

1017.5

988.2

940.1

Information

183.4

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

161.7

161.3

155.6

144.6

1110.7

1112.7

1020.3

1079.5

1155.5

1203.6

1211.9

1147.4

1035.3

Admin. & Support

678.2

673.6

563.7

600.6

646.8

672.9

670.9

610.3

530.2

Prof. Sci & Tech

366.6

370.1

384.9

404.0

431.1

451.4

460.0

455.3

425.2

65.8

69.0

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.3

81.0

81.9

79.9

Financial Activities

469.3

474.9

491.8

510.4

535.8

552.6

547.2

526.9

513.8

Real Estate & Rent

147.0

150.2

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

173.2

173.8

Fin. & Insurance

322.4

324.7

334.1

343.9

359.1

370.2

369.2

353.7

340.0

Edu. & Health Service

844.2

867.3

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.6

1024.1

1047.3

1071.1

Education Services

94.5

99.7

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

137.9

139.2

749.7

767.6

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

909.4

931.9

Leisure & Hospitality

815.5

818.9

862.0

899.9

924.3

937.7

956.4

942.9

918.9

Other Services

299.4

310.2

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.5

340.6

329.7

1023.3

1039.2

1053.0

1066.3

1081.1

1099.1

1122.6

1128.0

1122.7

Federal Gov't.

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.6

128.8

State & Local Gov't.

901.5

916.9

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.4

994.6

998.4

993.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Health Services

Government

Continued 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7367.6

7483.9

7710.8

7930.0

8103.2

8300.9

8479.3

8653.0

8854.8

9054.2

Manufacturing

306.2

312.9

326.6

338.3

342.7

343.5

343.1

342.3

342.2

341.9

Durable Goods

201.6

209.8

223.3

234.5

238.8

239.9

239.8

239.1

239.1

239.0

Wood Products

11.5

12.7

13.7

14.1

14.1

14.2

14.3

14.3

14.2

14.2

Computer & Electronics

42.8

43.4

44.6

44.9

44.0

43.7

43.6

43.4

43.5

43.4

Transportation Equipment

37.5

38.6

40.2

41.5

42.0

42.0

41.2

40.2

39.5

38.9

104.5

103.1

103.3

103.7

103.8

103.6

103.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

26.8

26.7

26.8

26.8

26.8

26.7

26.7

26.6

26.5

26.5

7061.4

7171.0

7384.2

7591.8

7760.5

7957.4

8136.2

8310.7

8512.6

8712.3

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.1

5.0

Construction

377.4

373.9

401.4

429.6

453.8

475.8

495.7

515.0

537.4

554.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

232.7

237.8

251.5

264.2

272.1

280.2

288.6

296.9

306.2

314.3

Wholesale Trade

332.2

336.1

353.2

372.0

381.5

389.9

395.9

402.3

412.5

423.8

Retail Trade

940.6

929.1

935.7

957.8

978.2

994.4

995.7

993.8

997.9

1006.4

Information

138.0

142.7

142.5

144.6

147.1

149.5

152.9

156.1

159.3

162.3

1040.7

1132.0

1231.8

1292.6

1350.6

1441.6

1528.9

1621.6

1732.0

1836.7

Admin. & Support

551.9

625.3

696.2

733.1

774.4

850.0

922.4

999.8

1089.6

1167.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

408.7

425.2

452.1

474.3

489.0

501.9

514.2

527.0

544.6

568.8

80.1

81.5

83.5

85.2

87.2

89.7

92.2

94.8

97.8

100.6

Financial Activities

514.2

517.6

530.1

537.6

539.9

545.4

550.5

554.3

558.1

564.1

Real Estate & Rent

176.0

177.5

180.3

182.4

183.7

184.9

185.6

186.9

188.3

190.1

Fin. & Insurance

338.2

340.0

349.8

355.2

356.2

360.5

364.8

367.4

369.7

374.1

Edu. & Health Service

1107.6

1130.6

1144.5

1160.3

1184.2

1212.9

1242.9

1268.4

1291.6

1314.1

Education Services

140.3

139.7

139.0

139.0

138.2

139.0

140.4

141.7

143.6

145.9

Health Services

967.3

990.8

1005.4

1021.2

1046.0

1074.0

1102.5

1126.7

1148.1

1168.2

Leisure & Hospitality

918.4

919.3

931.8

944.4

947.6

947.6

951.1

954.8

957.2

962.7

Other Services

331.9

333.4

332.6

334.6

338.8

340.9

343.5

345.6

346.6

347.0

1122.0

1112.9

1123.5

1148.6

1161.1

1173.4

1185.2

1196.7

1208.8

1221.1

Federal Gov't.

133.0

127.1

127.1

127.5

127.9

128.7

129.7

130.7

131.8

132.8

State & Local Gov't.

989.1

985.8

996.4

1021.1

1033.2

1044.7

1055.5

1065.9

1077.0

1088.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

9252.0

9439.5

9615.1

9789.3

Manufacturing

340.5

337.2

332.1

327.5

323.6

320.3

317.9

315.5

313.0

310.6

Durable Goods

238.0

235.4

231.4

227.8

224.7

222.3

220.8

219.3

217.6

216.1

Wood Products

14.2

14.1

13.9

13.8

13.7

13.7

13.7

13.7

13.5

13.4

Computer & Electronics

43.1

42.8

42.3

41.8

41.3

40.9

40.6

40.4

40.4

40.4

Transportation Equipment

38.1

37.2

36.2

35.3

34.4

33.7

33.2

32.7

32.3

31.8

102.5

101.8

100.7

99.7

98.9

98.0

97.1

96.2

95.4

94.5

26.4

26.3

26.3

26.2

26.2

26.1

26.1

26.0

25.9

25.9

8911.5

9102.3

9283.0

9461.8

9646.7

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

Construction

570.6

586.9

602.8

618.8

635.7

656.1

677.4

697.2

715.4

733.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

320.1

326.6

333.4

340.2

347.2

353.9

360.3

365.2

369.3

372.4

Wholesale Trade

435.9

447.9

458.9

468.6

478.2

487.5

496.2

503.8

511.0

515.9

Retail Trade

1018.8

1029.6

1039.0

1048.1

1057.1

1065.0

1072.6

1081.8

1092.3

1104.3

Information

164.6

167.3

170.3

173.7

177.3

181.0

185.2

189.7

194.7

200.1

1935.8

2027.9

2112.7

2197.9

2287.9

2388.7

2488.9

2591.9

2705.0

2818.0

1235.5

1296.9

1349.6

1401.1

1456.9

1522.5

1586.6

1653.1

1729.4

1804.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

596.7

624.2

653.1

683.7

714.9

747.0

780.2

813.6

847.5

883.1

Mgmt. of Co.

103.6

106.8

110.0

113.1

116.1

119.1

122.2

125.2

128.1

131.0

Financial Activities

572.8

580.5

586.8

591.9

597.0

604.1

610.8

616.7

622.9

630.3

Real Estate & Rent

191.9

193.6

195.3

196.9

198.6

200.4

202.2

203.8

205.4

207.0

Fin. & Insurance

381.0

386.9

391.5

395.0

398.4

403.7

408.6

412.9

417.5

423.3

1335.5

1353.3

1369.9

1387.4

1405.1

1421.1

1436.3

1453.1

1470.9

1490.1

148.1

150.2

152.2

154.1

156.0

158.1

160.2

162.3

164.6

167.0

1187.4

1203.1

1217.7

1233.3

1249.1

1263.0

1276.1

1290.8

1306.3

1323.1

Leisure & Hospitality

970.5

978.9

988.2

996.9

1006.5

1015.9

1024.6

1034.4

1044.4

1056.7

Other Services

347.9

351.3

356.9

362.4

367.4

372.1

377.6

383.7

390.0

396.3

1234.0

1247.1

1259.5

1271.4

1282.8

1294.6

1306.6

1318.2

1329.5

1340.5

133.8

135.1

136.2

137.3

138.5

139.7

140.8

142.0

143.2

144.4

1100.2

1112.1

1123.3

1134.0

1144.3

1154.9

1165.8

1176.2

1186.3

1196.1

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services

Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

9970.3 10164.8 10358.9 10555.7 10762.8 10972.8

9844.5 10040.9 10240.2 10449.8 10662.2

Continued 20

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

11177.6 11347.4 11514.7 11684.9 11868.4 12059.2 12264.6 12511.7 12773.7 13047.3

Manufacturing

308.9

307.3

305.1

303.0

301.3

299.9

298.7

298.2

298.4

299.0

Durable Goods

215.3

214.5

213.0

211.8

211.0

210.6

210.4

210.7

211.8

213.2

Wood Products

13.4

13.4

13.3

13.2

13.2

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

Computer & Electronics

40.6

40.7

41.0

41.2

41.6

41.9

42.3

42.7

43.2

43.7

Transportation Equipment

31.6

31.1

30.4

29.8

29.3

28.9

28.6

28.2

27.9

27.7

Nondurables

93.6

92.8

92.1

91.2

90.3

89.3

88.3

87.4

86.6

85.8

Foods

25.8

25.8

25.7

25.7

25.6

25.6

25.5

25.5

25.4

25.3

Non-Manufacturing Mining

10868.7 11040.1 11209.6 11381.9 11567.2 11759.3 11965.8 12213.6 12475.3 12748.3 4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

Construction

753.6

771.9

788.1

803.5

818.3

833.0

849.6

868.4

887.4

907.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

376.1

379.0

380.2

378.3

376.3

373.7

371.1

369.2

366.7

364.1

Wholesale Trade

520.9

524.0

526.5

527.7

528.7

529.0

529.4

530.6

531.9

533.2

Retail Trade

1115.1

1125.2

1135.4

1146.6

1157.2

1167.9

1177.9

1190.5

1202.2

1213.1

Information

205.6

210.9

216.2

221.3

226.9

232.3

237.9

244.3

251.3

258.6

2919.2

3002.7

3088.1

3179.9

3285.6

3399.7

3528.7

3683.2

3853.6

4036.7

1863.7

1903.8

1943.6

1988.2

2042.8

2103.9

2177.9

2275.1

2386.7

2507.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

921.6

962.2

1004.9

1049.2

1097.1

1146.8

1198.4

1252.0

1307.1

1365.1

Mgmt. of Co.

133.8

136.7

139.6

142.6

145.7

149.0

152.5

156.0

159.8

163.8

Financial Activities

639.1

646.4

652.6

659.0

666.9

674.9

682.6

691.3

699.9

708.2

Real Estate & Rent

208.7

210.3

211.7

213.1

214.7

216.3

217.9

219.5

221.2

222.8

Fin. & Insurance

430.4

436.1

440.8

445.8

452.1

458.6

464.7

471.7

478.6

485.4

1509.6

1526.4

1542.9

1558.5

1574.2

1588.1

1600.9

1615.7

1629.2

1641.4

169.3

171.2

172.9

174.5

176.2

178.0

179.8

182.1

184.7

187.3

1340.3

1355.2

1370.0

1384.0

1397.9

1410.2

1421.1

1433.6

1444.6

1454.1

1067.8

1079.6

1089.3

1100.1

1109.7

1120.7

1130.4

1143.9

1157.7

1170.0

402.7

408.9

415.3

420.8

426.7

432.6

438.7

445.9

453.4

460.9

1354.8

1360.8

1370.9

1381.9

1392.4

1403.3

1414.6

1426.3

1438.0

1450.5

149.4

146.9

148.1

149.4

150.6

151.9

153.1

154.4

155.7

156.8

1205.4

1213.9

1222.8

1232.6

1241.8

1251.4

1261.4

1271.9

1282.3

1293.7

Prof. & Business Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

710.8

703.4

705.7

710.6

716.8

724.3

731.1

738.4

746.9

756.9

767.4

779.2

791.9

804.8

816.8

Wages & Salaries

328.5

328.0

329.5

331.6

333.7

335.8

338.6

342.1

345.3

348.8

352.9

358.0

363.4

368.8

374.1

Other Labor Income

73.9

74.4

74.8

75.9

76.9

78.0

78.9

79.9

81.1

82.2

83.3

84.4

85.8

87.2

88.6

Nonfarm

37.7

38.0

38.4

38.7

39.3

39.7

40.4

41.0

41.7

42.2

42.8

43.6

44.4

45.1

45.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Property Income

180.3

176.0

174.9

175.7

177.6

180.3

182.4

184.2

186.7

190.4

193.9

197.8

201.8

205.8

209.5

Transfer Payments

Farm

138.9

135.4

135.6

137.1

137.8

139.2

140.0

141.4

142.9

144.4

146.2

148.4

150.4

152.4

154.4

Social Insurance

50.6

50.5

49.8

50.6

50.8

51.1

51.5

52.6

53.1

53.5

54.2

55.5

56.3

57.2

58.2

Personal Income

586.6

580.5

581.1

583.2

585.7

589.4

592.4

595.7

599.6

604.8

610.5

617.3

624.7

631.8

638.2

Wages & Salaries

271.1

270.7

271.3

272.1

272.7

273.3

274.4

276.0

277.2

278.7

280.7

283.6

286.6

289.6

292.3

Billions 2000 Dollars

Other Labor Income

61.0

61.4

61.6

62.3

62.9

63.5

63.9

64.5

65.1

65.7

66.3

66.9

67.7

68.5

69.2

Nonfarm

31.1

31.3

31.6

31.8

32.1

32.3

32.7

33.1

33.5

33.7

34.1

34.5

35.0

35.4

35.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Property Income

148.8

145.2

144.0

144.2

145.1

146.8

147.8

148.6

149.8

152.1

154.3

156.7

159.2

161.6

163.7

Transfer Payments

114.6

111.7

111.7

112.5

112.6

113.3

113.4

114.1

114.7

115.4

116.3

117.6

118.6

119.7

120.6

41.8

41.7

41.0

41.6

41.5

41.6

41.8

42.4

42.6

42.8

43.1

44.0

44.4

44.9

45.5

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

670.9

722.8

769.7

805.2

833.9

880.8

924.3

961.0 1006.3 1049.5 1097.2 1137.2 1169.9 1197.4 1216.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

243.3

243.4

245.7

248.0

251.2

255.0

258.5

261.1

264.7

269.2

274.4

278.8

283.1

287.1

291.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

200.8

200.8

202.3

203.5

205.3

207.5

209.5

210.7

212.5

215.1

218.3

220.9

223.4

225.4

227.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

22

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.7

614.4

668.5

699.2

716.1

707.4

Wages & Salaries

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.5

303.0

325.2

335.4

334.6

329.1

Other Labor Income

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

68.2

71.0

72.1

72.7

74.1

Nonfarm

27.6

29.0

30.7

33.8

37.0

39.9

39.8

39.6

38.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

122.9

122.0

120.1

136.7

152.1

176.7

190.5

197.4

179.4

Transfer Payments

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.6

98.5

103.6

110.4

120.9

134.8

Social Insurance

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.5

46.4

49.8

51.0

51.1

50.4

Farm Property Income

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.8

550.6

582.9

594.2

588.9

583.4

Wages & Salaries

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.8

271.5

283.6

285.1

275.2

271.4

Other Labor Income

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

61.1

61.9

61.3

59.8

61.1

Nonfarm

27.1

28.1

29.1

31.2

33.2

34.8

33.8

32.6

31.5

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.0

136.3

154.0

161.9

162.3

148.0

Transfer Payments

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.2

88.3

90.3

93.9

99.4

111.2

Social Insurance

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.2

41.5

43.4

43.4

42.1

41.6

1405.4

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

714.6

Retail Sales (Billions $)

191.2

196.6

206.5

225.2

245.1

264.9

272.7

268.1

244.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

187.2

189.9

195.5

207.8

219.7

231.0

231.8

220.5

202.0

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

720.7

752.4

798.2

849.6

901.8

960.9

1021.0

1084.1

1154.6

1233.9

Wages & Salaries

334.9

347.3

366.1

387.3

408.1

431.6

455.2

479.7

507.2

535.7

Other Labor Income

77.4

81.6

86.5

92.1

97.5

103.2

109.0

115.2

122.1

129.5

Nonfarm

39.5

41.9

44.7

47.3

49.8

52.8

56.1

59.7

63.8

68.7

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

Property Income

179.0

188.8

203.7

221.3

239.3

259.6

279.5

299.9

322.8

351.3

Transfer Payments

138.5

143.7

151.4

159.8

169.2

180.2

192.0

205.0

219.1

234.4

51.0

53.3

56.8

60.8

64.9

69.4

74.0

78.8

84.0

89.6

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

587.7

602.7

628.0

656.2

684.6

716.7

747.5

778.4

812.7

851.8

Wages & Salaries

273.1

278.2

288.0

299.2

309.8

321.9

333.2

344.4

357.0

369.8

Other Labor Income

63.1

65.4

68.1

71.1

74.0

76.9

79.8

82.7

86.0

89.4

Nonfarm

32.2

33.6

35.2

36.5

37.8

39.4

41.1

42.8

44.9

47.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

146.0

151.2

160.3

170.9

181.6

193.6

204.6

215.3

227.2

242.5

Transfer Payments

112.9

115.1

119.1

123.5

128.5

134.4

140.6

147.2

154.2

161.8

41.6

42.7

44.7

47.0

49.3

51.7

54.2

56.6

59.1

61.9

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

861.1

1028.5

1180.3

1252.7

1314.8

1367.5

1371.4

1371.3

1375.5

1391.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

253.2

267.4

285.0

299.0

313.2

332.4

351.5

369.8

390.3

413.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

206.5

214.2

224.3

231.0

237.8

247.9

257.4

265.5

274.7

285.4

Farm

Social Insurance

Continued 24

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1321.7

1413.3

1506.9

1603.8

1703.1

1806.7

1915.3

2028.8

2147.8

2270.5

Wages & Salaries

566.0

597.3

628.4

660.9

694.9

731.1

768.9

808.7

851.1

895.1

Other Labor Income

137.1

145.0

152.9

161.4

170.5

180.3

190.6

201.3

212.7

224.6

73.9

79.4

85.0

90.3

95.7

101.3

107.2

113.3

119.7

126.2

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

Property Income

384.1

417.2

450.1

483.3

515.2

547.8

581.8

616.8

653.1

690.2

Transfer Payments

251.2

270.4

292.1

315.2

339.5

365.1

392.0

420.3

449.7

480.0

94.9

100.7

106.6

112.4

118.4

124.7

131.3

138.1

145.3

152.8

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

895.6

940.2

984.8

1029.3

1073.2

1118.0

1163.6

1209.8

1256.4

1303.1

Wages & Salaries

383.6

397.4

410.7

424.2

437.9

452.4

467.1

482.3

497.9

513.7

Other Labor Income

92.9

96.5

99.9

103.6

107.5

111.6

115.8

120.0

124.4

128.9

Nonfarm

50.1

52.8

55.5

58.0

60.3

62.7

65.1

67.6

70.0

72.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

260.2

277.5

294.2

310.2

324.7

339.0

353.5

367.8

382.1

396.1

Transfer Payments

170.2

179.9

190.9

202.3

214.0

225.9

238.2

250.6

263.1

275.5

64.3

67.0

69.7

72.2

74.6

77.1

79.8

82.3

85.0

87.7

1410.8

1420.2

1429.8

1440.6

1455.7

1475.7

1496.2

1516.4

1537.2

1560.5

Retail Sales (Billions $)

438.6

464.1

490.3

518.2

547.0

577.6

609.9

643.6

679.4

716.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

297.2

308.8

320.4

332.6

344.7

357.5

370.6

383.8

397.4

411.4

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2398.8

2529.5

2666.4

2810.0

2963.5

3127.0

3303.1

3494.1

3697.2

3911.9

Wages & Salaries

940.5

984.0

1029.3

1075.9

1125.8

1178.6

1236.3

1300.8

1369.0

1440.6

Other Labor Income

237.0

249.5

262.2

275.6

289.7

304.8

321.0

338.9

358.1

378.5

Nonfarm

133.2

140.5

148.0

155.7

164.1

172.6

181.7

191.4

201.6

212.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Property Income

729.2

770.9

815.3

862.8

914.0

968.9

1027.9

1090.6

1156.9

1227.1

Transfer Payments

511.7

544.6

578.9

614.7

652.6

693.0

736.1

782.3

832.1

885.1

Social Insurance

160.5

168.2

176.0

184.0

192.5

201.4

211.0

221.7

233.0

245.1

Farm

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

1350.2

1396.4

1443.6

1492.5

1544.4

1599.2

1657.5

1720.5

1786.4

1854.5

Wages & Salaries

529.4

543.2

557.3

571.5

586.7

602.7

620.4

640.5

661.5

683.0

Other Labor Income

133.4

137.7

142.0

146.4

151.0

155.9

161.1

166.9

173.0

179.4

75.0

77.5

80.1

82.7

85.5

88.3

91.2

94.2

97.4

100.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

410.4

425.6

441.4

458.3

476.3

495.5

515.8

537.0

559.0

581.8

Transfer Payments

288.0

300.7

313.4

326.5

340.1

354.4

369.4

385.2

402.1

419.6

90.3

92.8

95.3

97.8

100.3

103.0

105.9

109.1

112.6

116.2

1590.0

1619.7

1646.2

1669.5

1694.2

1717.5

1744.3

1773.9

1803.2

1838.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

756.7

798.6

842.2

888.4

937.8

989.0

1044.0

1102.9

1165.9

1233.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

426.0

440.9

456.0

471.9

488.7

505.8

523.9

543.1

563.3

584.9

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

26

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Florida Federal Govern Employment 160.0

Ju n e 2 0 0 9

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026

C H A RTS

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

(Thousands)


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

28

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment 750.0 700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

30

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(Thousands)

250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Information Employment 280.0

(Thousands)

260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

32

(percent ch. year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Employment 14000.0

(Thousands)

12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income 10%

(percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Population (Thousands)

30000.0 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 4500.0 4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

34

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

36

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Ne w s Summa r ie s

Floridians could face millions in higher fees

Florida’s plan for renewables was a lot of wasted energy

• State lawmakers are planning on fee increases of more than $600 million to help cover Florida’s budget deficit. • The fees are generally preferred over taxes. Examples of fees include those for car registration, lawsuit filing, and fishing licenses.

• In 2008, the state legislature ordered state regulators to determine how much of the energy the state is using should come from renewable sources. • The effort was disregarded when the 2009 legislature failed to pass the renewable-energy bill. • Many public and private businesses and organizations are considered victims of this wasted work and investment; the legislation could have also created many jobs.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, April 9, 2009 Bright Futures may fade for many

• State legislators have decided to raise base tuition by 8% and allow all 11 state universities to charge up to an additional 7% differential fee. • None of the increases will be covered by Bright Futures, as lawmakers are looking for more ways to cut spending in Florida’s meager budget. • Bright Futures paid most of tuition for 90% of incoming freshmen in 2007. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 4, 2009 Reports: Wells Fargo needs $15B

• According to reports from the U.S. Treasury Dept’s bank “stress tests,” Florida’s largest bank, Wells Fargo, will need $15 billion in new capital to remain strong and stable. • Wells Fargo is among many other banks that will need to bolster capital under this federal evaluation. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 7, 2009 Insurance industry warns of tenuous financial state

• Insurance experts have a warning for Florida: our state lacks the financial backing to withstand a severe, Katrina-sized hurricane. • Artificially low insurance rates have left residents at great financial risk. • State government has blocked insurers from raising rates, causing companies to pull out of the Florida market. Forty percent of those who stay posted a net loss in 2008. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 15, 2009

Source: Miami Herald, May 25, 2009 Florida lawmakers tap condo fund as owners’ complaints rise

• The Florida legislature ended the legislative session without addressing condo foreclosure reform. • Because of the state budget, the legislature took $6 million from the condominium, timeshare, and mobile home trust fund, among other funds, to cover a $6-billion budget shortfall. • These actions draw ire from Florida’s 1.5 million condo owners in need of assistance. Source: Miami Herald, May 27, 2009 Crist signs growth overhaul for Florida, acknowledges concerns

• Governor Charlie Crist approved changes to Florida’s 25-year-old growth management law. • The changes allow developers in most urban counties to add more housing developments without expanding roads; the law also allows counties and cities to designate new urban areas, exempt from certain roadbuilding requirements. • Supporters say it will strengthen the economy; opponents predict increased urban sprawl, traffic gridlock, and environmental concerns. Source: St. Petersburg Times, June 2, 2009 Workers’ comp rate rollback approved

• A rollback in workers’ compensation rates has been approved by the Florida Insurance Commissioner in response to a new law that caps plaintiffs’ attorney fees. • The law, passed in May, was a reaction to the Florida Supreme Court ruling that would have allowed lawyers to receive higher fees to represent injured workers. • Florida’s workers’ comp rates were among the highest in the nation before a 2003 cap on attorney fees. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, June 3, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


Metros

Ju n e 2 0 0 9

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area is expected to show positive growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 2.9 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be one of the lowest in the state at 26.3. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 36.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent. This is the only metro area with declining population growth, averaging a decline of -0.1 percent every year. Gross Metro Product level will be 12,937.2 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average -0.2 percent each year. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 10.8 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Education and Health Services sector, with an average growth rate of 2.1 percent annually. Next, the Federal Government sector will experience 0.5 percent annual growth. The Leisure sector follows with an annual rate of 0.3 percent. The sectors that will experience the greatest decline are the Construction & Mining and Manufacturing sectors. Both of these sectors will have average annual declines of -2.6 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 498,036 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 255,020 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 26,256 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,351 employees • Halifax Health – 4,327 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,728 employees • Florida Hospital – All divisions – 3,547 employees • State Government – 3,038 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,908 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,758 employees • Daytona State College – 1,933 employees • Federal Government – 1,437 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,225 employees Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Flagler County approves land buy • County Commissioners voted to spend over $7 million in environmentally sensitive land funds to expand two Flagler County parks. • The lone dissenter, Commissioner Alan Peterson, voted against spending $1.5 million on a parcel of land recently appraised to be worth $1.2 million, saying that asking 25% over market value was an attempt to alleviate lost value on the investment and the purchase was not critical. • Commissioners were unanimous in approving the purchase of an addition to oceanfront Bay Drive Park for $5.8 million, a property valued at $6.4 million in 2008 and $5.4 million in April 2009. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 5, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Daytona facing budget woes again • As a result of diminishing city revenues and an overall grim economic climate, an early Daytona budget draft proposes cuts that would yield the lowest city staffing since 1988. • Officials are proposing cutting the Personal Services industry by $1.2 million, a decision that could eliminate 16 full-time Personal Service jobs for the second year in a row and leave the city with 100 fewer positions than 3 years ago. • City officials are also proposing cutting health care costs by 11.5% and reducing the overtime pay and police vehicle and equipment costs in the face of a $4-million drop in property tax revenue since 2007. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 7, 2009 Waiver means millions for local schools • $20.5 million of Florida’s $1.8 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds allocated by the U.S. Department of Education will go to offset cuts in Volusia County schools’ 2009-2010 budget. • Even with the funds, Volusia County schools will end up $9.7 million short of the previous year. • Florida has had to waive a “Maintenance of Effort” requirement, demanding that spending remain at 2006 levels in an effort to reduce costs in the midst of recession. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 12, 2009 Striking Out: Economy hits local diamonds • A South Daytona annual golf tournament aimed at raising money for little league baseball teams was canceled due to lack of participation and sponsorship, depriving the teams of roughly $7,000 in donations that fund anything from jerseys to bus and hotel fares. • Youth baseball diamonds in Daytona and across Florida have struggled to fundraise and attain sponsorships from hurting businesses, a trend that has transferred more of the cost of operating a little league team to the parents.

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• According to Norm Yelverton who oversees South Daytona athletics, the economic crunch has forced travel teams to travel less and play fewer home games. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 14, 2009 Volusia damage estimate: $52 million • Historic rainfall of 24-28 inches around Volusia and Flagler County has caused damage to approximately 976 properties at a cost of roughly $52 million. • The Daytona Beach Commission met to declare a state of emergency and will meet with organizations, such as FEMA and the Small Business Administration, in hopes of garnering federal disaster relief support. • Property damage must total more than $1.8 million to qualify for federal relief. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 22, 2009


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8.0%

30000.0

6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

1.2

1.4

1.6

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Deltona Payroll Employment

(percent change year ago)

2.0%

20000.0

0.0%

15000.0

-2.0%

10000.0 5000.0

1

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0

0.8

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate (percent)

0.6

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.4 -1.3 5.7 9.7

15.2 -1.6 5.7 9.5

15.3 -0.7 5.7 9.6

15.4 0.2 5.8 9.6

15.5 1 5.8 9.7

15.7 3.2 5.9 9.9

15.9 3.8 5.9 10

16 4.1 5.9 10.1

16.2 4.4 6 10.2

16.5 4.7 6.1 10.4

16.7 5.1 6.1 10.6

16.9 5.6 6.2 10.7

17.2 6 6.3 10.9

17.5 6.2 6.4 11.1

17.7 6.2 6.4 11.3

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 -1

12.6 -0.1

12.6 -0.6

12.6 -0.3

12.7 0

12.8 1.7

12.9 2.1

12.9 2.3

13 2.6

13.2 2.8

13.3 3.2

13.4 3.6

13.6 4.1

13.7 4.4

13.9 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31.1 25.6

30.8 25.4

30.9 25.5

31.1 25.6

31.4 25.7

31.8 25.9

32.1 26

32.4 26.2

32.8 26.3

33.3 26.6

33.7 26.8

34.1 27

34.6 27.3

35.2 27.6

35.6 27.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 3.3

35.8 2.8

36 2.4

36.2 2.5

36.3 2

36.5 2

36.7 1.9

36.9 1.9

37 1.9

37.2 1.9

37.3 1.9

37.6 1.9

37.8 2.1

38 2.3

38.3 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

159.3 -5

158.6 -3.9

158.3 -3

158.6 -2.5

159 -0.2

159.4 0.5

159.7 0.9

160.3 1

161.1 1.3

161.9 1.6

162.8 1.9

163.7 2.1

165 2.4

166.2 2.6

167.3 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -9.9

8 -11.6

7.8 -12.6

7.7 -11.6

7.7 -8.3

7.7 -4.1

7.7 -0.9

7.8 0.7

7.8 2.3

7.9 3.2

8 4.1

8.2 4.8

8.2 5

8.3 4.8

8.4 4.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151 -4.7

150.5 -3.5

150.5 -2.4

150.9 -2

151.4 0.3

151.7 0.8

152 1

152.5 1.1

153.2 1.2

154 1.5

154.8 1.8

155.6 2

156.8 2.3

157.9 2.5

158.9 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 -9.5

10.2 -8.7

10 -9.4

9.8 -11.3

9.5 -9.3

9.3 -8.8

9.3 -6.7

9.3 -4.9

9.4 -1.4

9.5 2.2

9.7 4.4

9.9 7

10.2 8.4

10.4 9

10.6 8.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 -6.9

30.3 -4.6

30.4 -2

30.5 -1.1

30.6 0.4

30.6 1

30.6 0.8

30.6 0.5

30.6 0

30.6 -0.1

30.7 0.4

30.9 0.8

31.1 1.7

31.3 2.4

31.5 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 23 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.3 22.9 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.2 23.1 2.3

5.2 23.1 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.3 22.8 2.3

5.4 22.7 2.4

5.4 22.8 2.4

5.5 22.9 2.4

5.6 23 2.5

5.7 23.1 2.5

5.8 23.2 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -6.8

2.4 -6.5

2.4 -3.6

2.4 -4.5

2.3 -5.7

2.3 -3.6

2.4 -1.6

2.4 2.3

2.5 6

2.5 5.8

2.5 3.6

2.5 1.1

2.5 -0.2

2.5 0.2

2.5 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 -7.8

7.2 -4.6

7.3 -1

7.3 0.2

7.3 0.8

7.3 0.6

7.3 0.1

7.3 0

7.3 0.4

7.4 1.1

7.4 1.7

7.4 2

7.5 2.3

7.5 2.5

7.6 2.4

14.1 -19.3

14 -17.7

14 -17.1

14 -13.1

14.1 -0.3

14.3 1.9

14.6 4.8

15 7.5

15.3 9

15.6 9.5

15.9 8.6

16.2 8

16.5 7.7

16.8 7.4

17 6.9

32 1.1

32.3 1.8

32.5 2.5

32.9 3.3

33.4 4.3

33.7 4.5

33.9 4.2

33.9 3

34.2 2.4

34.4 2

34.5 1.7

34.4 1.4

34.5 1.1

34.6 0.8

34.7 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 0.1

22.6 0.9

22.6 1.6

22.5 -1.3

22.5 -0.8

22.5 -0.4

22.4 -0.7

22.4 -0.6

22.4 -0.4

22.5 -0.1

22.5 0.6

22.6 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.5

22.9 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -0.9

7.9 -1

7.9 0

8 0.1

8 0.7

8 1.6

8 0.8

8 0.7

8 0.7

8 0.5

8 0.5

8 0

8 -0.4

8 -0.4

8 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.2

1.4 -0.3

1.4 1

1.5 5.6

1.6 13.3

1.5 6.9

1.4 2.2

1.4 -4.1

1.4 -11

1.4 -5.2

1.4 -1.4

1.4 0

1.4 0.4

1.4 0.7

1.4 1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 -1

22.2 -0.9

22.2 -1

22.1 -0.4

22.1 -0.2

22.1 -0.2

22.1 -0.4

22.1 -0.2

22.1 -0.3

22.1 -0.1

22.1 0.2

22.2 0.4

22.3 1.1

22.4 1.5

22.6 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12411.4

12400

12427.2

12469.6

12566.3

12650.7

12756.7

12841.3

12973.6

13109.7

13247.4

13391.1

13563.6

13716.9

13857.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.7 -0.5

495.1 -0.5

494.8 -0.5

494.7 -0.4

494.7 -0.2

494.5 -0.1

494.7 0

494.5 0

494.7 0

494.9 0.1

495.3 0.1

495.9 0.3

496.6 0.4

497.3 0.5

498.2 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

258.3 2.4

258.4 1.9

258.8 0.6

259.4 0.5

260.2 0.8

260.9 1

261.5 1.1

262.1 1

262.4 0.9

262.9 0.8

263.3 0.7

263.8 0.6

264.4 0.7

265 0.8

265.7 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.9

11.3

11.5

11.7

11.8

11.7

11.4

11.1

10.8

10.7

10.4

10.3

10

9.7

9.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

855 673 183

972 813 159

1305 1055 249

1691 1409 281

1987 1693 294

2354 2025 329

2673 2325 349

3010 2667 343

3360 3007 353

3622 3249 373

3828 3429 398

3999 3554 445

4230 3738 491

4414 3867 547

4484 3896 589

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1

11.8 4 4.6 7.2

13 9.7 5 8

13.7 5.9 5.3 8.4

14.7 7 5.8 8.9

15.2 3.3 5.9 9.3

15.5 1.9 5.8 9.7

15.3 -0.9 5.7 9.6

15.6 2 5.8 9.8

11 2.3

11.2 2

12 6.9

12.3 2.9

12.8 4.2

12.9 0.7

12.7 -1.4

12.6 -0.6

12.8 0.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.7 23.9

25.3 23.9

27.1 25

28.2 25.3

29.7 25.9

30.4 25.8

31.1 25.6

30.9 25.5

31.6 25.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 4

28.7 3.8

29.9 4.3

30.8 3.2

32.8 6.3

33.9 3.3

34.6 2.3

35.6 2.9

36.4 2.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

153.8 1.9

158.6 3.1

165.4 4.3

171.8 3.9

174.9 1.8

173.5 -0.8

166.9 -3.8

159.7 -4.3

159.2 -0.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -7.3

9.4 -1.5

9.8 3.9

10.2 4.3

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.3 -10.4

8.2 -11.2

7.7 -6.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

144.2 2.6

149.1 3.4

155.6 4.3

161.6 3.9

164.3 1.6

163.1 -0.7

157.7 -3.4

151.5 -3.9

151.5 0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 8.3

11.5 7.9

12.9 12.8

14.8 14.5

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.4

11.5 -19.1

10.4 -9.5

9.5 -9.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.9 -0.6

31.5 1.6

32 1.7

33.2 3.7

33.2 0.1

33.6 1.1

32.2 -4.1

30.5 -5.4

30.6 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.7 23.6 2.7

4.6 24.3 2.6

4.7 25 2.3

4.8 26 2.4

5 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.3 24.5 2.4

5.3 23 2.3

5.2 23.1 2.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -12.2

2.3 -7.6

2.3 -2.5

2.2 -3.3

2.4 8.3

2.5 5.2

2.6 4

2.5 -5.9

2.4 -3.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -2.3

6.5 1.2

6.9 7.2

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 2.2

7.7 -3.9

7.3 -6

7.3 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 3.8

17.4 6.3

19.1 9.8

20.6 7.7

20.4 -0.9

19 -6.7

17.4 -8.4

14.6 -16.4

14.2 -2.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 7.7

30.1 6.7

30.7 1.9

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.8 4

32.2 1.1

33.5 4.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 0.8

20 2.2

21.1 5.3

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.6 0.1

22.7 0.5

22.5 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 6.8

7.8 2.9

8.2 4

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8 -1.8

7.9 -0.7

8 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 2.5

1.4 2.5

1.4 0

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0

1.4 0.1

1.5 7

20.6 0.9

20.7 0.5

21.1 2.1

21.8 3.5

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.4

22.5 -2.9

22.2 -1.3

22.1 -0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

10600.3

11228.9

11909.3

12840

13258.1

13187

13007

12462.8

12610.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

459.2 1.6

467.3 1.8

477.6 2.2

486.9 2

495.3 1.7

499.1 0.8

497.8 -0.3

495.6 -0.4

494.6 -0.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

221.1 3.3

227 2.7

232.9 2.6

240.9 3.4

246.6 2.3

250.5 1.6

253.8 1.3

258.4 1.8

260.5 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.1

4.5

3.7

3.3

4.1

6.6

11

11.6

4785 4136 649

6171 4990 1181

6179 4779 1401

6363 5121 1242

4126 3100 1026

2195 1583 612

1370 1020 351

953 778 176

2176 1863 313

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.4 4.6 6 10.3

17.3 6 6.3 11

18.4 6.2 6.7 11.7

19.5 6 7 12.5

20.8 6.5 7.4 13.4

22.1 6.3 7.8 14.3

23.5 6.3 8.1 15.3

25 6.5 8.6 16.4

26.7 6.9 9 17.7

28.6 7 9.5 19.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 2.7

13.6 4.1

14.2 4.2

14.8 4.2

15.5 4.6

16.2 4.3

16.8 4.2

17.6 4.4

18.4 4.8

19.4 5.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.1 26.5

34.9 27.4

36.8 28.4

38.7 29.3

40.7 30.4

42.7 31.2

44.7 32.1

46.9 33

49.4 34.1

52 35.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.1 1.9

37.9 2.2

39 2.8

40.1 3

41.4 3.1

42.7 3.2

44.1 3.2

45.5 3.2

47 3.2

48.5 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

161.5 1.5

165.6 2.5

170.1 2.7

173.8 2.2

177.4 2.1

180.7 1.9

183.7 1.7

187.1 1.9

190.4 1.8

193.8 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 2.6

8.3 4.8

8.6 4

8.7 1.5

8.8 0.4

8.8 0

8.8 -0.1

8.8 0.1

8.8 0

8.8 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

153.6 1.4

157.3 2.4

161.5 2.7

165 2.2

168.6 2.2

171.9 2

174.9 1.8

178.3 1.9

181.6 1.9

185.1 1.9

9.5 0

10.3 8.4

11.1 7.9

11.8 6.4

12.3 4.7

12.8 3.5

13.2 3.2

13.7 3.7

14 2.6

14.3 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.6 0.2

31.2 1.9

32.4 3.7

33.3 2.7

33.9 1.9

34.2 0.9

34.3 0.5

34.7 1

35.2 1.4

35.7 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 22.8 2.3

5.6 23 2.5

6 23.6 2.6

6.1 24.1 2.7

6.3 24.5 2.8

6.4 24.5 2.9

6.5 24.5 3

6.7 24.6 3.1

6.9 24.9 3.1

7.1 25.2 3.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 4.4

2.5 0.5

2.5 2.4

2.6 2.2

2.6 2

2.7 2.7

2.8 2.4

2.8 2.3

2.9 2.2

3 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.8

7.5 2.3

7.6 1.4

7.6 0.3

7.7 0.9

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.6

7.9 0.7

8 1.1

8.1 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 8.6

16.6 7.5

17.3 4.2

18 3.9

19.1 5.9

20.2 5.8

21.4 5.9

22.8 6.5

24 5.6

25.2 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

34.2 2.3

34.6 1

35 1.2

35.7 2.1

36.6 2.6

37.6 2.5

38.4 2.2

39.1 2

39.8 1.8

40.5 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -0.1

22.8 1.4

23 1.1

23.1 0.2

23 -0.2

23 0.1

23 0

23 -0.1

23 0.2

23.1 0.4

8 0.6

8 -0.2

8.1 0.6

8.2 1.2

8.2 0.5

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.6

8.3 0.3

8.4 0.2

8.4 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -5.6

1.4 0.5

1.4 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 1.2

1.5 1.4

1.5 1.4

1.5 1.4

1.6 1.4

1.7 8.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 -0.1

22.4 1.3

23 2.8

23.3 1.4

23.6 1.3

23.9 1.2

24.2 1.2

24.5 1.2

24.8 1.2

25.1 1.3

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13043

13632.2

14137.6

14591.5

15169.1

15722.2

16286.3

16929.3

17606.8

18310.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

494.9 0

497 0.4

500.4 0.7

504.9 0.9

510.4 1.1

517.5 1.4

524.6 1.4

532.2 1.5

541 1.6

549.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

262.7 0.8

264.7 0.8

267.6 1.1

270.6 1.1

274.2 1.3

278 1.4

281.9 1.4

285.8 1.4

289.8 1.4

293.8 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.8

9.8

8.9

8.4

8

7.6

7.1

6.5

6

5.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3455 3088 367

4282 3764 518

4474 3879 595

4562 3904 657

4808 3961 847

4957 4010 946

4996 3988 1007

5056 3985 1071

5195 4014 1181

5324 4036 1288

Continued 44

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

30.5 6.8 9.9 20.6

32.5 6.6 10.4 22.1

34.6 6.4 10.9 23.7

36.7 6.1 11.4 25.3

38.9 5.9 12 26.9

41.2 5.9 12.5 28.6

43.5 5.8 13.1 30.4

46 5.7 13.8 32.2

48.6 5.5 14.4 34.1

51.2 5.5 15.1 36.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 4.9

21.3 4.7

22.2 4.4

23.1 4.1

24.1 4

25 3.9

26 3.8

26.9 3.7

27.9 3.5

28.8 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

54.6 36.3

57.3 37.4

59.9 38.5

62.5 39.4

65.2 40.3

67.9 41.3

70.7 42.1

73.5 43

76.4 43.8

79.3 44.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.2 3.4

51.8 3.2

53.5 3.2

55.1 3.1

56.8 3.1

58.6 3.1

60.4 3.1

62.3 3.1

64.2 3

66.1 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.8 1.5

199.9 1.6

203 1.6

206.2 1.6

209.6 1.7

213.1 1.6

216.6 1.6

220.3 1.7

224 1.7

227.7 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 -0.8

8.6 -1.4

8.5 -1.3

8.4 -1.1

8.3 -0.9

8.2 -0.6

8.2 -0.6

8.1 -0.7

8.1 -0.6

8.1 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

188.1 1.6

191.3 1.7

194.6 1.7

197.9 1.7

201.4 1.8

204.9 1.7

208.4 1.7

212.1 1.8

215.9 1.8

219.6 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 2.2

15 2.1

15.3 2

15.6 2.1

16 2.6

16.4 2.8

16.8 2.3

17.1 2

17.5 1.9

17.8 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 1.4

36.7 1.4

37.2 1.5

37.8 1.4

38.3 1.4

38.8 1.3

39.3 1.3

39.8 1.3

40.3 1.3

40.8 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

7.3 25.5 3.3

7.5 25.8 3.4

7.7 26.1 3.4

7.9 26.3 3.5

8.1 26.6 3.6

8.2 26.8 3.7

8.4 27 3.8

8.5 27.3 3.8

8.7 27.6 3.9

8.8 27.9 3.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3 1.9

3.1 2.1

3.1 2.3

3.2 2.4

3.3 2.5

3.4 2.7

3.5 2.9

3.6 3.1

3.7 3.2

3.8 3.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 1.3

8.3 1.2

8.4 0.9

8.4 0.9

8.6 1.2

8.6 1.1

8.7 1

8.8 1

8.9 1.2

9.1 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.3 4.2

27.4 4

28.4 3.9

29.5 4

30.8 4.3

32.1 4.1

33.4 4.1

34.8 4.3

36.3 4.1

37.6 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41.1 1.4

41.7 1.4

42.3 1.4

42.9 1.4

43.4 1.3

43.9 1.2

44.5 1.3

45.1 1.4

45.8 1.5

46.5 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 0.5

23.4 0.6

23.5 0.5

23.6 0.6

23.8 0.6

23.9 0.5

24 0.6

24.2 0.6

24.4 0.8

24.5 0.7

8.5 1

8.6 1.7

8.7 1.6

8.9 1.5

9 1.4

9.1 1.5

9.3 1.7

9.4 1.7

9.6 1.7

9.8 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -4.6

1.6 1.5

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.3

1.9 4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 1.3

25.7 1.2

26 1.2

26.3 1.1

26.6 1.1

26.9 1

27.2 1.1

27.4 1

27.7 1

28 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

19008.4

19708.3

20377.4

21056.5

21795.5

22538.6

23280.2

24037.9

24811.7

25601.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

558.9 1.6

568.1 1.6

577.5 1.6

586.9 1.6

596.5 1.6

606.2 1.6

616.1 1.6

626 1.6

636 1.6

645.9 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

297.8 1.3

301.7 1.3

305.7 1.3

309.9 1.4

314.4 1.4

319.4 1.6

324.6 1.6

330 1.6

335.3 1.6

340.8 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5343 3998 1345

5316 3953 1363

5251 3925 1327

5221 3911 1310

5255 3957 1298

5262 3966 1296

5209 3919 1290

5123 3842 1281

5074 3800 1274

5091 3823 1268

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

54 5.3 15.8 38.2

56.8 5.3 16.5 40.3

59.8 5.2 17.2 42.6

62.9 5.3 17.9 45

66.3 5.3 18.7 47.6

69.8 5.4 19.5 50.4

73.7 5.5 20.4 53.3

77.8 5.5 21.3 56.5

82.1 5.5 22.3 59.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 3.3

30.8 3.3

31.8 3.2

32.8 3.3

33.9 3.3

35 3.4

36.3 3.5

37.6 3.5

38.9 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

82.3 45.4

85.3 46.2

88.5 47

91.8 47.8

95.3 48.7

99 49.7

103 50.7

107.1 51.8

111.5 52.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.1 3

70.2 3.1

72.2 2.9

74.3 2.9

76.4 2.9

78.7 2.9

81 2.9

83.4 2.9

85.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

230.7 1.4

233.7 1.3

236.8 1.3

240 1.3

243.2 1.3

246.6 1.4

250.6 1.6

254.8 1.7

259.4 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8 -0.4

8 -0.6

7.9 -0.6

7.9 -0.4

7.9 -0.3

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.1

7.9 0.2

7.9 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

222.7 1.4

225.8 1.4

228.9 1.4

232.1 1.4

235.4 1.4

238.7 1.4

242.8 1.7

247 1.7

251.5 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 1.8

18.4 1.5

18.7 1.3

18.9 1.2

19.1 1.2

19.4 1.3

19.7 1.6

20 1.5

20.3 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

41.2 1

41.6 1

42 0.9

42.3 0.8

42.6 0.7

42.9 0.7

43.3 0.9

43.6 0.8

43.9 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.8 28.2 4

8.9 28.5 4

9 28.8 4

9 29 4

9.1 29.3 4

9.1 29.6 4

9.1 30 4

9.2 30.3 4

9.2 30.6 4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 3

4.1 2.9

4.2 2.8

4.3 2.9

4.4 2.8

4.5 2.8

4.7 3.1

4.8 3.3

5 3.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 1.2

9.3 1

9.3 1

9.5 1.2

9.6 1.2

9.7 1.2

9.8 1.3

9.9 1.2

10.1 1.2

38.6 2.7

39.6 2.7

40.8 3

42.2 3.3

43.6 3.4

45.2 3.7

47.1 4.1

49.2 4.5

51.7 5.2

47 1.2

47.6 1.2

48.1 1.1

48.7 1.1

49.1 1

49.6 0.9

50.1 1

50.6 0.9

51 0.9

24.7 0.7

24.8 0.5

25 0.6

25.1 0.5

25.2 0.6

25.3 0.4

25.5 0.8

25.7 0.8

25.9 0.6

9.9 1.6

10.1 1.6

10.2 1.4

10.4 1.4

10.5 1.4

10.7 1.4

10.8 1.6

11 1.6

11.2 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -1.2

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.3

2 1.3

2 1.3

2 1.3

2 1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 0.9

28.4 0.9

28.7 0.9

29 0.9

29.2 0.9

29.5 0.9

29.8 1

30.1 1

30.4 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

26353.1

27098.3

27886.9

28718.2

29574

30463.1

31381.9

32344.1

33362.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

655.9 1.5

665.9 1.5

675.9 1.5

685.8 1.5

695.8 1.5

705.7 1.4

715.8 1.4

726 1.4

736.2 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

346.2 1.6

351.7 1.6

357.2 1.6

362.7 1.6

368.3 1.5

373.9 1.5

379.6 1.5

385.3 1.5

391.1 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

46

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5048 3810 1238

4961 3740 1221

4930 3728 1202

4945 3753 1193

4949 3775 1174

4943 3791 1152

4933 3784 1149

4901 3769 1132

4881 3764 1116


G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be one of the slowest in the state, averaging 2.5 percent, while per capita income level will be at an average of 27.4 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, while the average annual wage level is at 39.8. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.7 percent annually. Gross metro product will be one of the lowest in the state, at a level of 9,350.1 (Mill). This metro will see a decline in employment growth at a rate of -0.3 percent annually. In terms of unemployment, the metro will suffer the least in the state. It will maintain the lowest rate of unemployment, at 7.0 percent annually. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Education and Health Services sector, with an average growth rate of 2.0 percent annually. This is followed in second by the Leisure sector, with an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent, and the Financial sector with 0.3 percent growth. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -3.8 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 258,555 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 241,364 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,191 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 140,426 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 8,058 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees • Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Cash infusion for job training • FloridaWorks, the regional work force agency for Alachua and Bradford counties, received $1.5 million in stimulus funds from the state as part of the $143 billion the U.S. Department of Labor allocated for workforce services. • Local funding will be split between a paid summer internship program for at-risk youth and job training services for unemployed and employed adults. Training will focus on fields such as alternative energy, health care, and information technology. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 4, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


G ai n e s v i l l e

District reduces or eliminates summer programs

GRU braces for $29M shortfall

• Summer school will be eliminated for middle and high schools in Alachua County. A fee increase for an elementary school summer care program significantly decreased enrollment from 1,200 last year to 300 children signed up so far.

• City-owned Gainesville Regional Utilities has seen a sharp reduction in the use of electricity, water, and natural gas that was not forecasted into the budget for this fiscal year and the next.

• High school students are able to make up classes through the district’s credit retrieval online program (CROP). Middle school students can make up one class through Florida Virtual School. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 18, 2009 Private funding, use floated for Cone Park • City commissioners are considering a proposal for a $1.7 million track and field addition to Cone Park along East University Avenue in Gainesville. • Not-for-profit Gainesville Sports Commission could cover the $360,000 estimated operating cost for three years while the city finds space in the budget. • Residents who view Cone Park as a community park are concerned the public-private partnership will decrease their access to the park. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 21, 2009 UF trustees vote to cut school’s budget by $42.2M • Academic programs in documentary film, educational psychology, instructional scuba, and rehabilitation counseling will be shut down under the new budget. • The budget includes nine faculty and 49 staff layoffs, and the elimination of 150 positions currently vacant or expected to be open due to retirements. • Cuts are less than feared several months ago because UF is using federal stimulus money for the next two years to lessen the impact of the budget cuts. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 27, 2009

48

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• The city of Gainesville will receive about $950,000 less than projected from revenue transfer from GRU. • Taking into account several factors, the city estimates a $4.2 million deficit between the budgeted amount for 2010 and what actually will be taken in. Source: The Gainesville Sun, June 4, 2009


G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0%

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Gainesville Payroll Employment 180.0

(Thousands)

170.0 160.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

110.0

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Gainesville Payroll Employment

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.6 -0.8 5 3.5

8.5 -1.5 5 3.5

8.5 -1.2 5.1 3.5

8.6 0.1 5.1 3.5

8.7 1.2 5.1 3.5

8.7 2.8 5.2 3.6

8.8 3.3 5.2 3.6

8.9 3.6 5.2 3.7

9 3.6 5.3 3.7

9.1 3.9 5.3 3.8

9.2 4.2 5.3 3.8

9.3 4.5 5.4 3.9

9.4 4.9 5.5 4

9.5 5.2 5.5 4

9.7 5.4 5.6 4.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 -0.5

7 0

7 -1.1

7 -0.4

7.1 0.2

7.1 1.4

7.1 1.6

7.2 1.8

7.2 1.8

7.2 2

7.3 2.3

7.4 2.6

7.4 3.1

7.5 3.4

7.6 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.9 27.1

32.6 26.9

32.6 26.9

32.8 26.9

33 27

33.3 27.1

33.5 27.1

33.7 27.2

34 27.3

34.3 27.4

34.6 27.5

35 27.7

35.4 27.9

35.8 28.1

36.2 28.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.5 3.3

38.7 2.8

38.9 2.5

39.1 2.6

39.3 2.1

39.5 2.1

39.7 2

39.9 2

40.1 2

40.3 2

40.5 2

40.7 2

41 2.2

41.2 2.4

41.5 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.4 -3.3

129.8 -3.4

129.6 -3.3

129.7 -2.1

130.2 -0.2

130.1 0.3

130.1 0.4

130.4 0.5

130.7 0.4

131.1 0.8

131.5 1.1

132 1.2

132.8 1.5

133.5 1.8

134.2 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -8.8

4.4 -12.2

4.3 -14.1

4.3 -11.4

4.2 -8

4.3 -3.9

4.3 -0.6

4.3 0.9

4.3 2.5

4.4 3.5

4.5 4.3

4.5 4.9

4.6 5.2

4.6 5

4.7 4.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125.8 -3.1

125.4 -3

125.3 -2.8

125.4 -1.8

125.9 0.1

125.9 0.4

125.8 0.4

126.1 0.5

126.4 0.4

126.7 0.7

127.1 1

127.4 1.1

128.2 1.4

128.8 1.7

129.5 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.1 -11.3

5 -11.1

4.8 -12.7

4.7 -12

4.6 -10.3

4.5 -9.9

4.5 -7.8

4.4 -5.9

4.5 -2.4

4.5 1.1

4.6 3.5

4.7 6

4.8 7.3

4.9 7.8

5 7.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 -4.5

18.8 -5.3

18.8 -3.9

18.8 -1.6

18.8 -0.1

18.8 0.4

18.8 0.3

18.8 0

18.7 -0.4

18.7 -0.5

18.8 0

18.9 0.5

19 1.4

19.1 2.1

19.2 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.5 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.5 2.5

2.8 13.4 2.5

2.8 13.3 2.5

2.9 13.4 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

3 13.5 2.7

3 13.5 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -7.5

1.8 -7.9

1.7 -3.1

1.7 -6

1.7 -6.1

1.7 -4.6

1.7 -1.4

1.7 2

1.7 4.7

1.7 4.3

1.7 2.3

1.7 0.7

1.7 0.1

1.7 0.3

1.8 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -2.2

6.1 -0.8

6.1 -0.5

6.2 0.2

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.6

6.1 0

6.2 -0.2

6.2 0.3

6.2 0.9

6.2 1.5

6.3 1.8

6.3 2.1

6.4 2.3

6.4 2.2

9.2 -17.2

9.1 -18.9

9.1 -17.5

9.1 -13.3

9.2 -0.4

9.3 1.8

9.5 4.7

9.8 7.4

10 8.9

10.2 9.4

10.3 8.5

10.6 7.9

10.8 7.6

10.9 7.3

11.1 6.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 1.9

22.9 2.3

23 2.1

23.3 3

23.6 3.8

23.8 3.9

23.9 3.7

23.9 2.5

24.1 2

24.2 1.6

24.2 1.3

24.2 1

24.2 0.7

24.3 0.5

24.3 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 3.8

15.3 2

15.3 0.8

15.3 -1

15.3 -0.5

15.3 -0.2

15.2 -0.6

15.2 -0.5

15.2 -0.4

15.3 -0.2

15.3 0.5

15.3 0.9

15.4 1

15.5 1.2

15.5 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -2.6

4.7 0.2

4.7 -0.2

4.7 0

4.7 0.6

4.8 1.8

4.8 1

4.8 0.9

4.8 0.8

4.8 0.4

4.8 0.4

4.8 -0.2

4.7 -0.7

4.7 -0.8

4.7 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4 -0.6

3.9 -2.9

3.9 -1.2

3.9 -1.7

4.2 5.9

4 2.6

3.9 -0.1

3.9 0.4

3.9 -7.6

3.9 -3.3

3.9 -1

3.9 -0.7

3.9 -0.3

3.9 0

3.9 0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.9 -3

37.8 -1.6

37.7 -1.8

37.7 -0.8

37.6 -0.6

37.5 -0.7

37.4 -1

37.3 -0.9

37.2 -1

37.2 -0.9

37.1 -0.7

37.1 -0.6

37.3 0.1

37.4 0.6

37.6 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9048.4

9038.4

9049.2

9060.9

9124.8

9178.7

9242.9

9289.8

9367

9448.8

9530.6

9614.1

9719

9810.1

9894.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

260.5 0.7

260.8 0.7

261.2 0.6

261.6 0.6

262.1 0.6

262.6 0.7

263.1 0.7

263.6 0.8

264 0.7

264.5 0.7

265 0.7

265.5 0.7

266 0.8

266.5 0.8

267.1 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

134.9 -0.8

134.2 -2.2

133.9 -3.5

133.8 -1.4

133.9 -0.7

134.2 0

134.6 0.6

135 0.9

135.2 0.9

135.4 0.9

135.7 0.8

136 0.8

136.4 0.9

136.8 1

137.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7

7.3

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.4

6.1

6

725 225 500

729 245 484

871 317 553

978 444 535

997 539 458

1054 634 420

1089 713 376

1171 805 366

1218 892 327

1240 941 299

1252 971 281

1264 994 270

1303 1041 262

1363 1074 289

1392 1080 313

*Quarterly at an annual rate

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2

6 2.9 3.7 2.3

6.8 13.4 4.2 2.6

7.4 8 4.5 2.9

7.9 7.8 4.8 3.2

8.3 5.2 5 3.4

8.6 3.1 5.1 3.5

8.5 -0.7 5.1 3.5

8.7 1.8 5.1 3.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

5.6 0.4

5.7 0.9

6.3 10.5

6.6 4.9

6.9 4.9

7.1 2.5

7.1 -0.2

7 -0.4

7.1 0.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.4 23.6

24.9 23.5

27.9 25.7

29.6 26.5

31.3 27.3

32.5 27.6

33.2 27.3

32.8 27

33.1 27

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 3.4

28.8 1.5

32.2 11.9

33.8 5

35.5 5.1

36.6 3.1

37.5 2.3

38.5 2.9

39.4 2.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

126 -0.1

127.4 1.1

129.6 1.8

131.2 1.2

133.3 1.6

135.2 1.4

134.6 -0.5

130.6 -2.9

130 -0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5 -0.8

4.7 -5.3

4.7 -1.8

4.6 -0.2

5.2 12.2

5.3 2.2

5.1 -4.8

4.5 -10.5

4.3 -6.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

121 -0.1

122.6 1.3

125 1.9

126.5 1.3

128.1 1.2

129.9 1.4

129.5 -0.3

126 -2.7

125.8 -0.2

5.1 5.6

5.2 1.5

5.8 11.7

6.2 6.3

6.5 5.2

6.5 0.9

5.7 -12.5

5.1 -11.4

4.6 -10

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 -1.2

18.1 1.1

18.2 0.4

18.9 3.5

19.5 3.3

20.3 4

19.7 -2.7

18.9 -4.2

18.8 -0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.3 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.2 2.5

2.6 13.2 2.4

2.7 13.8 2.4

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.9 14.2 2.7

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -6.5

2 -1.3

2.1 6.1

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 2.6

1.9 -6.6

1.8 -5.9

1.7 -4.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -0.1

6.2 -6.4

6.2 -0.7

6.2 1

6.5 4

6.4 -0.5

6.3 -2.8

6.1 -1.8

6.2 0.4

9.9 -10.4

10.4 4.3

11.3 8.8

11.9 5.6

12.1 1.3

11.6 -4.1

11.2 -3.4

9.5 -15

9.3 -2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 2.4

20.8 2.3

21.5 3

21.9 2.1

21.9 0.1

21.8 -0.5

22.4 2.8

22.8 1.9

23.7 3.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 -1.3

12 -0.5

12.9 7.5

13.7 5.9

13.4 -2.1

14 4.1

14.9 6.5

15.4 3.2

15.3 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 10.4

4.5 5.4

4.7 3.3

4.5 -3.1

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.8

4.8 -0.9

4.7 -1.7

4.7 0.8

3.2 2.1

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4 4.1

4 -1.2

4 1.7

39.4 1

40 1.6

38.9 -2.8

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.9

38.7 0.1

37.8 -2.1

37.6 -0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

7928

8289.6

8629.5

8993.5

9248.6

9369.1

9440.5

9080.2

9151.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

239 1.2

241.4 1

244.3 1.2

248.3 1.7

253.2 2

256.6 1.3

258.8 0.9

260.6 0.7

262.4 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

123.4 0.1

124.5 0.9

125.4 0.8

128 2.1

130.9 2.3

134.3 2.6

136.6 1.7

134.7 -1.4

134.2 -0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4

3.7

3.5

2.9

2.7

3

4.3

7.1

7.5

1942 1130 812

1706 1261 446

1838 1378 461

2224 1454 770

1885 1156 729

1365 762 603

1035 489 546

709 268 441

1030 583 447

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9 3.8 5.3 3.7

9.5 5 5.5 4

10 5.5 5.8 4.2

10.5 5.2 6 4.5

11.1 5.6 6.3 4.8

11.7 5.4 6.6 5.1

12.3 5.3 6.9 5.4

13 5.6 7.2 5.8

13.8 5.8 7.6 6.2

14.6 6 7.9 6.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 2

7.5 3.1

7.7 3.6

8 3.4

8.3 3.7

8.6 3.4

8.9 3.3

9.2 3.5

9.5 3.7

9.9 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

34.2 27.4

35.6 28

37.3 28.8

38.9 29.5

40.7 30.3

42.4 31.1

44.3 31.8

46.3 32.6

48.5 33.5

51 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.2 2

41.1 2.3

42.3 2.9

43.6 3.1

45 3.2

46.5 3.3

48 3.3

49.7 3.4

51.3 3.3

53.1 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.9 0.7

133.1 1.6

135.9 2.1

138 1.5

139.9 1.4

141.7 1.2

143.2 1.1

145 1.2

146.7 1.2

148.3 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 2.8

4.6 5

4.8 4.2

4.9 1.7

4.9 0.6

4.9 0.2

4.9 0.1

4.9 0.2

4.9 0.2

4.9 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

126.6 0.6

128.5 1.5

131.1 2.1

133.1 1.5

135 1.5

136.8 1.3

138.3 1.1

140 1.3

141.8 1.2

143.4 1.1

4.5 -1

4.8 7.2

5.2 6.7

5.4 5.3

5.6 3.9

5.8 3.2

6 3

6.2 3.4

6.3 2.3

6.5 1.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 -0.2

19.1 1.5

19.7 3.2

20.1 2.2

20.4 1.3

20.5 0.4

20.5 0

20.6 0.5

20.7 0.8

20.9 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.8 13.4 2.5

3 13.4 2.7

3.1 13.7 2.8

3.2 13.9 2.9

3.2 14.1 2.9

3.3 14 3

3.3 13.9 3.1

3.4 13.9 3.2

3.4 14 3.2

3.5 14.1 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 3.3

1.7 0.4

1.8 1.4

1.8 1.7

1.8 1.6

1.9 2

1.9 1.9

1.9 1.8

2 1.6

2 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 0.6

6.3 2.1

6.4 1.2

6.4 0.1

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.4

6.5 0.4

6.6 0.7

6.7 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 8.5

10.8 7.4

11.3 4.1

11.7 3.8

12.4 5.8

13.1 5.6

13.8 5.6

14.6 6.3

15.4 5.3

16.2 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 1.8

24.3 0.7

24.5 1

24.9 1.7

25.4 2.1

25.9 1.9

26.4 1.6

26.7 1.4

27 1.2

27.4 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 -0.1

15.4 1.1

15.6 0.9

15.5 -0.2

15.4 -0.6

15.4 -0.2

15.4 -0.3

15.3 -0.4

15.3 0

15.3 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 0.6

4.8 -0.6

4.8 0.3

4.8 0.9

4.8 0

4.8 0.3

4.8 0.1

4.8 -0.3

4.8 -0.4

4.8 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -3

3.9 -0.2

3.9 0.2

3.9 0.2

3.9 0.5

3.9 0.6

4 0.6

4 0.6

4 0.7

4 -1.9

37.2 -0.9

37.4 0.4

38.1 2

38.5 0.9

38.7 0.7

38.9 0.5

39.1 0.5

39.3 0.5

39.5 0.6

39.8 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9409.1

9759.3

10053.9

10314.2

10651

10964.7

11278.5

11638.7

12014.2

12387.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

264.3 0.7

266.3 0.8

268.5 0.8

270.8 0.9

273.4 0.9

276 1

278.6 1

281.3 0.9

283.9 0.9

286.6 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

135.3 0.9

136.6 0.9

138.2 1.2

139.4 0.9

140.7 0.9

142.1 1

143.5 1

145 1

146.4 1

147.7 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.9

6.3

5.6

5.3

5.1

4.8

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.6

1220 902 318

1331 1047 283

1418 1088 330

1446 1083 363

1536 1087 449

1586 1087 500

1602 1072 530

1630 1066 564

1665 1060 605

1698 1050 648

Continued 52

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.5 6 8.3 7.2

16.4 5.7 8.6 7.7

17.3 5.6 9 8.3

18.2 5.4 9.4 8.8

19.2 5.2 9.8 9.4

20.1 5.2 10.2 10

21.2 5.1 10.6 10.5

22.2 5 11.1 11.1

23.3 4.9 11.6 11.8

24.5 4.9 12.1 12.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 4.1

10.7 3.8

11.1 3.7

11.5 3.4

11.9 3.3

12.2 3.2

12.6 3.2

13 3

13.4 2.9

13.8 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

53.5 35.6

56 36.6

58.6 37.6

61.1 38.5

63.7 39.4

66.3 40.3

69 41.2

71.8 42

74.6 42.8

77.5 43.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

55 3.5

56.8 3.4

58.7 3.3

60.6 3.2

62.5 3.2

64.6 3.2

66.7 3.3

68.9 3.3

71.1 3.2

73.3 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

149.9 1.1

151.4 1

152.8 0.9

154.2 1

155.8 1

157.4 1

158.9 1

160.6 1

162.2 1

163.9 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.9 -0.6

4.8 -1.3

4.8 -1.1

4.7 -1

4.7 -0.7

4.7 -0.5

4.6 -0.5

4.6 -0.6

4.6 -0.5

4.6 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

145 1.1

146.5 1

148 1

149.5 1

151.1 1.1

152.7 1

154.3 1

155.9 1.1

157.6 1.1

159.3 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 1.9

6.7 1.8

6.8 1.8

7 1.9

7.1 2.4

7.3 2.6

7.5 2.2

7.6 1.8

7.7 1.7

7.9 2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 0.8

21.2 0.8

21.4 0.9

21.6 0.8

21.8 0.8

22 0.8

22.1 0.7

22.3 0.7

22.4 0.7

22.5 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.6 14.2 3.3

3.7 14.2 3.4

3.7 14.3 3.4

3.8 14.3 3.5

3.8 14.4 3.6

3.9 14.4 3.7

3.9 14.5 3.7

4 14.5 3.8

4 14.6 3.8

4 14.7 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.6

2.1 1.7

2.1 1.8

2.1 1.9

2.2 1.9

2.2 2

2.3 2.1

2.3 2.3

2.4 2.4

2.4 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 0.9

6.8 0.8

6.8 0.5

6.9 0.5

6.9 0.8

6.9 0.6

7 0.5

7 0.5

7.1 0.7

7.1 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 3.9

17.4 3.6

18 3.5

18.6 3.6

19.4 3.9

20.1 3.7

20.8 3.7

21.6 3.9

22.4 3.7

23.1 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 0.8

27.8 0.8

28 0.7

28.2 0.7

28.4 0.6

28.5 0.5

28.7 0.6

28.9 0.7

29.1 0.8

29.4 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 0.3

15.4 0.4

15.5 0.3

15.5 0.4

15.6 0.4

15.6 0.3

15.7 0.3

15.7 0.4

15.8 0.6

15.9 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 0.1

4.8 1

4.9 1

4.9 0.8

4.9 0.8

5 0.9

5 1.1

5.1 1.1

5.1 1.1

5.2 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 3.3

4.1 0.4

4.1 0.5

4.1 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.3 0.6

4.4 3.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

40 0.6

40.2 0.4

40.4 0.4

40.5 0.4

40.7 0.4

40.8 0.3

41 0.4

41.1 0.3

41.2 0.3

41.3 0.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12781.1

13151.5

13497.8

13846.1

14227.8

14602.9

14972.1

15346.8

15725.7

16108.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

289.4 1

292.3 1

295.1 1

298 1

300.9 1

303.8 1

306.8 1

309.8 1

312.8 1

315.7 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

148.9 0.8

150 0.8

151.2 0.8

152.4 0.8

153.7 0.9

155.2 1

156.9 1.1

158.5 1.1

160.2 1

161.8 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

1708 1030 678

1700 1013 686

1689 1003 685

1676 996 679

1686 1006 680

1687 1003 683

1667 983 684

1636 954 683

1619 937 682

1623 940 683

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.6 4.6 12.5 13.1

26.8 4.7 13 13.8

28 4.6 13.5 14.5

29.3 4.6 14 15.3

30.7 4.7 14.6 16.1

32.2 4.8 15.1 17

33.7 4.9 15.8 18

35.4 4.9 16.4 19

37.1 4.9 17.1 20

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.6

14.5 2.6

14.9 2.6

15.3 2.7

15.7 2.7

16.1 2.8

16.6 2.9

17.1 3

17.6 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

80.3 44.3

83.3 45.1

86.3 45.8

89.5 46.6

92.8 47.5

96.3 48.3

100.1 49.3

104.1 50.3

108.2 51.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

75.6 3.1

78.1 3.2

80.5 3.1

82.9 3.1

85.5 3.1

88.1 3.1

90.9 3.1

93.7 3.1

96.6 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

165 0.7

166.2 0.7

167.4 0.7

168.6 0.7

169.8 0.7

171.2 0.8

172.8 1

174.6 1

176.6 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -0.3

4.5 -0.5

4.5 -0.5

4.5 -0.4

4.5 -0.3

4.5 -0.2

4.5 -0.1

4.5 0.2

4.5 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.5 0.7

161.6 0.7

162.8 0.7

164.1 0.8

165.4 0.8

166.7 0.8

168.4 1

170.1 1.1

172.1 1.2

8 1.7

8.1 1.3

8.2 1.2

8.3 1.1

8.4 1

8.5 1.2

8.6 1.4

8.7 1.3

8.8 1.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 0.4

22.7 0.4

22.8 0.2

22.8 0.1

22.8 0.1

22.8 0

22.9 0.3

22.9 0.2

22.9 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4 14.7 3.9

4 14.8 3.9

4 14.9 3.9

4 14.9 3.9

4 15 3.9

4 15 3.8

4 15.1 3.8

4 15.2 3.8

4 15.2 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 2.2

2.5 2.1

2.6 2.1

2.6 2.1

2.7 2

2.7 2

2.8 2.2

2.9 2.3

2.9 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 0.6

7.2 0.5

7.2 0.5

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.7

7.4 0.6

7.5 0.8

7.5 0.7

7.6 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 2.3

24.2 2.3

24.8 2.5

25.5 2.9

26.3 2.9

27.1 3.2

28.1 3.7

29.3 4.1

30.6 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 0.6

29.7 0.6

29.9 0.5

30 0.5

30.1 0.4

30.2 0.3

30.3 0.4

30.4 0.3

30.5 0.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16 0.5

16 0.3

16.1 0.4

16.1 0.2

16.2 0.4

16.2 0.2

16.3 0.5

16.4 0.5

16.4 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.2 0.9

5.3 0.9

5.3 0.7

5.4 0.8

5.4 0.7

5.5 0.7

5.5 0.9

5.5 0.9

5.6 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -1.9

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

41.4 0.2

41.5 0.2

41.6 0.2

41.6 0.2

41.7 0.2

41.8 0.2

41.9 0.2

42 0.2

42.1 0.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16462.5

16810.5

17180.2

17570.1

17970.4

18384.7

18810.3

19253.8

19721.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

318.7 0.9

321.7 0.9

324.7 0.9

327.7 0.9

330.8 0.9

333.8 0.9

336.9 0.9

340 0.9

343.1 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

163.5 1

165.1 1

166.7 1

168.4 1

170 1

171.6 0.9

173.2 0.9

174.7 0.9

176.4 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

1601 931 670

1567 903 663

1548 893 655

1547 896 651

1540 898 642

1530 900 630

1523 895 628

1507 889 618

1495 886 609


J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

• CSX – 4,400 employees • Bank of America – 4,000 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,313,228 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 26,164 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 184,727 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 850,962 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 69,835 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 181,540 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 681,078 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 9.2% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 62,772 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see moderate, but positive, growth in all of the economic indicators. Personal income will see an average growth of 3.1 percent, while the per capita income level will be at 32.9; these income indicators are some of the highest in the state. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 47.5. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 49,246.18 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to grow 0.1 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. Unemployment will be just under the double-digit mark at an average of 9.8 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, averaging 3.0 percent annually. Following that sector is Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent, and then the Financial sector with 0.4 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -5.8 percent. This is the steepest decline of any sector, in any metro area.

Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 8,100 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • Citibank – 4,600 employees

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Blue Cross to cut 5% of workforce • In an effort to lower costs, Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida, Inc. announced that it is cutting 300 employees from its statewide workforce. Additional reductions of 200 to 250 will occur through attrition. • The announcement did not specify how many of those cuts would come from the company’s corporate offices in Gainesville. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 1, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


J ack s o n v i l l e

FDIC to bring 500 temporary jobs to Jacksonville

Crist signs bill for outer beltway

• The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chose Jacksonville as the site of a temporary satellite office that will help manage receiverships and liquidate assets of failed banks in Eastern states.

• The $2 billion First Coast Outer Beltway project will be funded by a public-private partnership and is expected to break ground in a year.

• FDIC uses these offices to keep temporary asset resolution staff closer to the sites of failed banks. Up to 500 nonpermanent staff and contractors will be hired based on workload and the number of bank closures in the Eastern region. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 8, 2009 Visit Jax: Tourism had $1.6B impact • According to a study commissioned by Visit Jacksonville, almost three million overnight visitors to Duval County directly spent more than $987 million in 2008. Indirect spending accounted for the rest of the $1.6B impact. • The spending supported 42,900 jobs in the city and more than $73 million in sales and local option taxes according to Tampa-based Research Data Services Inc., which conducted the study. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 11, 2009 Winn-Dixie earnings higher than expected • During its third quarter, the Jacksonville-based company reported higher-than-expected earnings and an increase in net income to $16.6 million, from $15 million during the same period in 2008. • Based on results, the company raised its annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) expectation to a range from $145 to $152 million for the fiscal year. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 12, 2009

56

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• The beltway consists of a four-lane limited access toll road spanning over 46 miles. It will start in Clay County at Interstate 295 and connect Interstate 10 in west Jacksonville to Interstate 95 in northern St. Johns County. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, June 1, 2009


J ack s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1100.0

(Thousands)

1000.0

10.0%

900.0

8.0%

800.0 700.0

6.0%

600.0

4.0% 2.0%

0.8

500.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 140000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

400.0

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

120000.0

6.0%

100000.0

4.0%

80000.0

2.0%

60000.0

0.0% -2.0%

40000.0 20000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

52.1 -1 28.2 23.9

51.7 -1.4 28.2 23.5

51.9 -0.6 28.3 23.6

52.2 0.4 28.5 23.7

52.7 1.1 28.7 24

53.2 3 28.9 24.3

53.7 3.6 29.2 24.6

54.3 4 29.5 24.8

55 4.4 29.8 25.2

55.8 4.8 30.2 25.6

56.6 5.2 30.5 26

57.5 5.8 31 26.4

58.5 6.3 31.5 26.9

59.4 6.6 32 27.4

60.4 6.8 32.5 27.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

43 -0.7

42.6 0.1

42.7 -0.6

42.9 -0.1

43 0.1

43.3 1.6

43.5 2

43.8 2.2

44.1 2.6

44.5 2.8

45 3.3

45.5 3.9

46.1 4.5

46.7 4.8

47.2 4.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

39.3 32.4

38.9 32.1

38.9 32.1

39.2 32.1

39.4 32.2

39.8 32.4

40.1 32.5

40.4 32.6

40.9 32.8

41.3 33

41.8 33.3

42.4 33.6

43 33.9

43.6 34.2

44.1 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.6 3.4

45.9 3.1

46.2 2.7

46.5 2.8

46.7 2.5

47 2.5

47.3 2.5

47.6 2.5

47.9 2.5

48.1 2.4

48.4 2.4

48.8 2.4

49.1 2.5

49.5 2.8

49.9 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

596.1 -4.7

591.7 -4.4

590.6 -3.4

590.3 -2.4

590.7 -0.9

591.9 0

593.9 0.6

596.6 1.1

600.1 1.6

604.1 2

608.6 2.5

614.1 2.9

620 3.3

625.6 3.6

630.5 3.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 -9.2

27.9 -11.6

27.2 -12.6

26.8 -12

26.6 -8.7

26.7 -4.6

26.8 -1.3

26.9 0.2

27.1 1.9

27.4 2.8

27.8 3.6

28.1 4.3

28.3 4.5

28.6 4.3

28.9 4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

567 -4.5

563.7 -4

563.4 -2.9

563.4 -1.9

564.1 -0.5

565.3 0.3

567.1 0.7

569.7 1.1

573 1.6

576.7 2

580.8 2.4

586.1 2.9

591.6 3.3

597 3.5

601.7 3.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 -17.3

35.2 -15.8

34.1 -14.4

33.2 -12.8

32.2 -11.2

31.4 -10.8

31.1 -8.6

30.9 -6.8

31.1 -3.5

31.4 0

31.8 2.2

32.4 4.7

33 6.1

33.5 6.6

33.9 6.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

130.2 -5

129.7 -4.2

129.9 -2

130 -1.3

130.2 0

130.3 0.4

130.3 0.3

130.5 0.3

130.6 0.3

131.1 0.6

132 1.3

133 2

134.2 2.8

135.5 3.4

136.8 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27.7 71.8 30.6

27.7 71.7 30.4

27.8 71.8 30.4

27.7 72.1 30.4

27.7 72.3 30.3

27.7 72.4 30.4

27.6 72.3 30.4

27.6 72.1 30.5

27.9 71.6 30.9

28.2 71.3 31.3

28.6 71.6 31.7

28.9 71.8 32.2

29.4 72.1 32.7

29.8 72.4 33.3

30.2 72.7 33.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 -7.1

9.1 -8.4

9 -7.9

8.8 -6.2

8.6 -6.7

8.6 -5

8.8 -2.4

8.9 1.2

9 4.3

9 4.1

9 2

8.9 0.1

8.9 -0.8

8.9 -0.5

9 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.3 -2.4

59.1 -2.3

59.4 -0.9

59.5 -0.5

59.4 0.3

59.3 0.4

59.4 0

59.5 -0.1

59.7 0.5

60.1 1.3

60.5 1.9

60.9 2.5

61.4 2.7

61.8 2.8

62 2.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

82.9 -7.9

81.5 -6.6

81.5 -6.3

81.5 -5.2

81.9 -1.2

83.1 1.9

85.2 4.6

87.5 7.4

89.4 9.2

91.1 9.7

93 9.1

95.5 9.2

97.8 9.3

99.9 9.6

101.4 9.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

80.2 -0.2

80.7 0.4

81.1 0.8

81.9 2.6

82.8 3.3

83.6 3.6

84.1 3.6

84.3 2.8

84.9 2.5

85.5 2.3

85.9 2.2

86.2 2.3

86.6 2.1

87 1.8

87.3 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.3 -0.8

66.1 -0.9

66.2 -0.3

66.2 -0.7

66.2 -0.1

66.3 0.3

66.2 0

66.1 0

66.2 0

66.4 0

66.6 0.6

66.9 1.2

67.2 1.5

67.5 1.8

67.9 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 -5.4

26.4 -4.8

26.6 -3.3

26.6 0.1

26.6 0.6

26.7 1.3

26.7 0.5

26.7 0.4

26.7 0.5

26.8 0.2

26.8 0.2

26.7 -0.1

26.7 -0.3

26.7 -0.3

26.7 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 1.6

17 -1.1

17 -0.8

17 -0.7

17.4 1

17.3 1.8

17 0

16.9 -0.6

16.9 -3.3

16.8 -2.6

16.8 -1

16.8 -0.4

16.9 -0.1

16.9 0.1

16.9 0.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.9 -1.6

58.8 -2

58.7 -1.5

58.7 -0.5

58.6 -0.4

58.6 -0.4

58.4 -0.6

58.5 -0.4

58.5 -0.3

58.5 -0.2

58.5 0.1

58.6 0.3

59 1

59.3 1.5

59.8 2.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

47432.9

47295.5

47374.2

47447.9

47698.1

48071

48504.1

48827.5

49312.5

49833.3

50382.1

51011.3

51687.4

52301.2

52866.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1327.6 1.1

1329.8 1

1331.8 0.8

1334 0.7

1336.2 0.6

1338.5 0.7

1340.9 0.7

1343.4 0.7

1346 0.7

1349 0.8

1352.2 0.8

1355.8 0.9

1359.7 1

1363.8 1.1

1368.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

686.2 0.6

684.3 0

683.1 -0.5

683.3 -0.7

684.5 -0.2

685.9 0.2

687.5 0.6

689.6 0.9

691.3 1

693.1 1

694.9 1.1

696.6 1

698.1 1

700.1 1

702 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.9

10.2

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.5

10.3

10

9.8

9.7

9.4

9.4

9.1

8.8

8.6

3974 3093 880

4060 3247 813

4990 3904 1086

5807 4626 1180

6332 5146 1186

7213 5951 1262

8123 6787 1337

9025 7683 1342

9987 8597 1390

10764 9275 1489

11364 9760 1605

11838 10068 1770

12472 10529 1943

13013 10847 2166

13258 10903 2355

*Quarterly at an annual rate

58

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3

40.5 8.9 23.4 17.1

44.1 8.8 25 19.1

48.6 10.2 27.3 21.3

50.9 4.7 28.3 22.6

52.3 2.8 28.5 23.8

51.9 -0.7 28.3 23.7

53 2 28.8 24.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 2.4

35.2 3.8

37.4 6.1

39.5 5.7

42.4 7.2

43.2 2

43 -0.5

42.8 -0.4

43.2 0.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.9 28.9

31 29.4

33.1 30.5

35.2 31.6

38 33.1

39.1 33.3

39.7 32.7

39.1 32.2

39.6 32.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.8 4.3

37 6.4

38.4 3.9

39.6 2.9

41.9 6

43.1 2.8

44.3 2.8

45.7 3.1

46.9 2.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

561.5 -1

564.6 0.5

582 3.1

607.4 4.4

626.1 3.1

633.8 1.2

621.3 -2

595.7 -4.1

591.7 -0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

34.4 -4.9

33.4 -3.1

33.3 -0.3

33.5 0.9

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.8 -2.3

28.7 -9.8

26.7 -6.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

527.1 -0.7

531.2 0.8

548.7 3.3

573.9 4.6

592.9 3.3

601.2 1.4

589.5 -2

567.1 -3.8

565 -0.4

34.1 3.6

36.7 7.4

40.9 11.5

45.4 11

50.1 10.3

49.2 -1.6

42.9 -12.9

35.9 -16.3

32 -10.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

124.4 -0.9

125 0.4

128.1 2.5

132.7 3.6

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136 -2.3

130.4 -4.1

130.2 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.9 68.1 30.4

26.8 68.8 29.4

26.9 71.2 30.1

27.8 73.9 31.1

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.7 75.5 31.8

27.8 72 30.6

27.7 72.3 30.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 -8.1

12.4 -6.1

11.6 -6.4

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

9.9 -2.2

9.2 -7.4

8.7 -5.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

57.7 -0.3

57.6 -0.1

58.4 1.4

59.3 1.5

59.8 0.9

60.1 0.5

60.5 0.6

59.4 -1.8

59.4 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

86.1 -8.2

84.1 -2.3

86 2.2

91.7 6.7

96.8 5.5

94.3 -2.6

88.4 -6.2

83 -6.2

82.9 -0.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

63.5 4

64.7 1.9

67.9 5

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.6

80.4 3.3

80.5 0.1

83.1 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 2.8

53.3 1.6

56.3 5.5

60.4 7.3

62.1 2.9

65.9 6.1

66.7 1.3

66.3 -0.6

66.2 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 4.6

25.7 3

26.4 2.6

26.8 1.5

27.6 3.1

28.3 2.3

27.8 -1.7

26.5 -4.5

26.7 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 0.2

18 1.5

17.8 -1.3

17.4 -2.2

16.9 -2.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.3

17.1 0.1

17.2 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

52.8 0.5

53.6 1.7

55.4 3.3

57.1 3

57 0

59.1 3.7

59.8 1.1

58.9 -1.5

58.6 -0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

40595.4

42410.4

44393

47334.9

49209.6

49274

49254.5

47498.9

47930.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1175 2.1

1198.1 2

1225.2 2.3

1251.5 2.2

1278.7 2.2

1299.4 1.6

1315.2 1.2

1328.4 1

1337.4 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

595.3 0.4

598.2 0.5

607.6 1.6

627.7 3.3

649.2 3.4

668.4 3

682.1 2

685.4 0.5

685.3 0

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

5.1

4.6

3.7

3.3

3.8

5.8

10

10.5

14252 11058 3194

15042 12825 2217

17883 13858 4024

23879 18655 5224

16715 12256 4459

10521 7477 3043

7244 5324 1920

5055 3354 1701

6869 5628 1241

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

55.4 4.6 30 25.4

58.9 6.4 31.8 27.2

62.9 6.7 33.8 29.1

66.9 6.4 35.7 31.2

71.4 6.7 37.8 33.6

75.9 6.3 39.9 36

80.6 6.2 42.1 38.5

85.9 6.5 44.6 41.3

91.7 6.8 47.2 44.5

98.1 6.9 49.9 48.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.4 2.7

46.4 4.5

48.6 4.7

50.8 4.6

53.2 4.8

55.6 4.3

57.9 4.2

60.5 4.4

63.3 4.7

66.5 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

41.1 32.9

43.3 34.1

45.6 35.2

47.8 36.3

50.2 37.4

52.5 38.4

54.9 39.4

57.6 40.5

60.5 41.8

63.6 43.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48 2.4

49.3 2.7

50.9 3.2

52.5 3.3

54.3 3.4

56.2 3.4

58.1 3.4

60.1 3.5

62.2 3.4

64.4 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

602.4 1.8

622.5 3.4

642 3.1

657.9 2.5

674.5 2.5

689.4 2.2

704 2.1

721 2.4

737.6 2.3

753.6 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.3 2.1

28.5 4.2

29.5 3.5

29.9 1.4

30 0.5

30 0

30 -0.1

30.1 0.2

30.1 0.2

30.1 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

575.1 1.8

594.1 3.3

612.5 3.1

628.1 2.5

644.5 2.6

659.4 2.3

674 2.2

691 2.5

707.5 2.4

723.5 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 -2.1

33.2 6

35.1 5.7

36.6 4.4

38 3.7

39.2 3.1

40.5 3.4

42.3 4.3

43.6 3.2

44.9 2.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

131 0.6

134.9 2.9

140.5 4.2

144.7 3

147.8 2.1

149.5 1.1

150.8 0.9

152.9 1.4

155.3 1.5

157.6 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

28.1 71.6 31.1

29.6 72.3 33

31.3 74.2 34.8

32.1 76 36

32.8 77.3 37.1

33.3 77.4 38.2

33.9 77.2 39.2

34.7 77.5 40.4

35.7 78.1 41.5

36.7 78.9 42.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9 2.9

8.9 -0.3

9.1 1.4

9.2 1.7

9.4 1.7

9.6 2.4

9.8 2.3

10 2.1

10.2 1.9

10.4 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.9 0.9

61.5 2.6

62.5 1.6

63 0.8

63.8 1.2

64.5 1.1

65.2 1

65.8 1

66.7 1.3

67.8 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

90.3 8.8

98.6 9.3

104 5.5

109.6 5.3

117.3 7.1

124.7 6.3

132.5 6.3

141.7 7

150.5 6.2

158.7 5.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

85.1 2.4

86.8 1.9

88.3 1.8

90.4 2.4

92.8 2.6

95.1 2.5

97.1 2.1

98.9 1.9

100.7 1.8

102.3 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.3 0.1

67.4 1.6

68.4 1.6

68.9 0.6

69 0.2

69.3 0.4

69.6 0.5

69.8 0.3

70.2 0.6

70.8 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 0.3

26.7 -0.2

26.9 0.6

27.2 1.2

27.4 0.7

27.6 0.8

27.8 0.7

28 0.4

28 0.3

28.2 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 -1.9

16.9 0

16.9 0.2

16.9 0.2

17 0.6

17.2 0.8

17.3 0.7

17.4 0.7

17.5 0.7

17.4 -0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.5 -0.2

59.2 1.2

60.7 2.6

61.4 1.2

62.1 1.1

62.8 1.1

63.4 1

64.1 1

64.8 1.1

65.4 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

49588.9

51966.6

54008.9

55891.4

58216.2

60401.3

62651.1

65235.7

67932.9

70641.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1347.7 0.8

1361.9 1.1

1380.3 1.4

1400.6 1.5

1422.2 1.5

1444.9 1.6

1468.3 1.6

1492.2 1.6

1516.7 1.6

1541.4 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

692.2 1

699.2 1

707.8 1.2

718.9 1.6

730.2 1.6

742.2 1.6

754.6 1.7

767.2 1.7

779.3 1.6

790.4 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.8

8.9

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.7

6.2

5.7

5.2

4.8

10285 8829 1456

12645 10587 2058

13450 10974 2476

13695 11020 2674

14094 10817 3277

14676 11035 3640

14906 11070 3836

15139 11088 4051

15555 11162 4392

15872 11175 4697

Continued 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

104.8 6.8 52.7 52

111.6 6.5 55.5 56

118.6 6.3 58.5 60.1

125.9 6.1 61.6 64.3

133.5 6.1 64.9 68.6

141.5 6 68.4 73.1

149.9 5.9 72.1 77.8

158.7 5.9 76 82.7

167.8 5.7 80 87.8

177.3 5.7 84.2 93.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.7 4.8

72.9 4.6

76.1 4.4

79.3 4.2

82.6 4.2

86 4.1

89.4 3.9

92.8 3.9

96.3 3.7

99.8 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

66.9 44.5

70.1 45.8

73.3 47.1

76.6 48.3

80 49.5

83.5 50.7

87 51.9

90.7 53.1

94.5 54.2

98.4 55.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

66.7 3.6

69 3.4

71.4 3.4

73.8 3.4

76.3 3.3

78.9 3.4

81.5 3.4

84.3 3.4

87.1 3.3

89.9 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

769.1 2.1

783.9 1.9

798.7 1.9

814.2 1.9

830.9 2.1

847.5 2

864.1 2

881.6 2

899.3 2

916.8 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 -0.8

29.4 -1.5

29 -1.3

28.7 -1.1

28.4 -1

28.1 -0.8

27.9 -0.8

27.7 -0.8

27.5 -0.7

27.3 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

739.3 2.2

754.5 2.1

769.8 2

785.5 2

802.5 2.2

819.4 2.1

836.2 2.1

853.9 2.1

871.8 2.1

889.4 2

46.2 2.9

47.4 2.7

48.7 2.7

50 2.8

51.7 3.3

53.4 3.3

55 3

56.4 2.7

57.9 2.6

59.5 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

159.9 1.5

162.4 1.5

164.8 1.5

167.3 1.5

169.7 1.5

172.1 1.4

174.2 1.2

176.3 1.2

178.1 1.1

179.9 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

37.7 79.6 43

38.6 80.3 43.9

39.4 80.9 44.8

40.2 81.5 45.7

41 82.1 46.5

41.7 82.6 47.4

42.3 83.2 48

42.9 83.9 48.6

43.3 84.8 49

43.7 85.5 49.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 1.7

10.8 1.9

11 2

11.2 2.1

11.5 2.1

11.7 2.3

12 2.5

12.3 2.6

12.7 2.8

13 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.9 1.5

69.7 1.2

70.4 1.1

71.2 1.1

72.2 1.4

73.1 1.3

73.9 1.1

74.7 1.1

75.7 1.3

76.9 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

166.2 4.8

173.4 4.3

180.6 4.2

188.2 4.2

196.8 4.5

205.2 4.3

213.9 4.2

223.5 4.5

233.1 4.3

241.7 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

103.8 1.4

105.1 1.3

106.4 1.3

107.8 1.3

109.1 1.2

110.3 1.1

111.6 1.2

112.9 1.2

114.4 1.3

115.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

71.4 0.9

72.1 0.9

72.7 0.9

73.4 1

74.1 0.9

74.7 0.9

75.4 1

76.2 1

77.1 1.2

77.9 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 1.3

29 1.8

29.5 1.7

30 1.5

30.4 1.4

30.9 1.6

31.5 1.7

32 1.8

32.6 1.7

33.1 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 1.8

17.9 0.8

18 0.8

18.1 0.8

18.3 0.8

18.4 0.8

18.6 0.8

18.7 0.8

18.9 0.8

19.5 3.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

66.2 1.1

66.9 1.1

67.6 1

68.2 0.9

68.8 1

69.5 1

70.2 0.9

70.8 0.9

71.4 0.9

72 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

73468.4

76218.4

78866.3

81571.7

84518.1

87465.1

90408.8

93431.6

96521.2

99675.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1566.5 1.6

1591.8 1.6

1617.4 1.6

1643.2 1.6

1669.2 1.6

1695.5 1.6

1722 1.6

1748.7 1.6

1775.6 1.5

1802.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

801.1 1.4

811.8 1.3

822.7 1.3

833.9 1.4

845.8 1.4

859.1 1.6

873 1.6

887.2 1.6

901.5 1.6

915.9 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

15899 11003 4896

15779 10870 4909

15544 10758 4786

15435 10733 4702

15551 10904 4647

15498 10929 4569

15244 10748 4496

14910 10470 4440

14718 10324 4395

14756 10387 4370

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

186.9 5.4 88.2 98.7

197 5.4 92.4 104.5

207.5 5.3 96.8 110.7

218.7 5.4 101.4 117.3

230.7 5.5 106.4 124.4

243.6 5.6 111.7 131.9

257.7 5.8 117.7 140

272.6 5.8 124.1 148.5

288.4 5.8 130.7 157.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

103.2 3.4

106.6 3.3

110.2 3.4

114 3.4

118 3.5

122.3 3.6

126.9 3.8

131.7 3.8

136.7 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

102.2 56.4

106.1 57.4

110.1 58.5

114.4 59.6

119 60.9

123.9 62.2

129.2 63.6

134.8 65.2

140.7 66.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

92.8 3.2

95.8 3.2

98.9 3.2

102 3.2

105.3 3.2

108.8 3.3

112.4 3.3

116 3.3

119.7 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

931 1.6

945.2 1.5

959.5 1.5

975 1.6

991 1.6

1008.1 1.7

1028.6 2

1050.2 2.1

1072.9 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.2 -0.5

27 -0.7

26.8 -0.7

26.7 -0.6

26.6 -0.5

26.5 -0.4

26.4 -0.2

26.4 0.1

26.5 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

903.8 1.6

918.2 1.6

932.7 1.6

948.4 1.7

964.4 1.7

981.6 1.8

1002.1 2.1

1023.8 2.2

1046.5 2.2

61 2.5

62.3 2.2

63.6 2

64.8 1.9

66 1.9

67.4 2.1

68.9 2.3

70.5 2.3

72.2 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

181.4 0.8

182.7 0.7

183.5 0.4

184.2 0.4

184.8 0.3

185.3 0.3

186.2 0.5

186.9 0.4

187.5 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

44 86.2 49.8

44.2 86.9 49.9

44.2 87.6 49.7

44.3 88.3 49.4

44.3 89 49.1

44.3 89.6 48.8

44.4 90.4 48.5

44.5 91.1 48.2

44.6 91.7 47.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 2.6

13.7 2.5

14 2.4

14.4 2.5

14.7 2.3

15 2.4

15.4 2.7

15.9 2.8

16.3 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

77.8 1.3

78.7 1.1

79.6 1.1

80.6 1.3

81.7 1.3

82.7 1.3

83.8 1.4

84.9 1.3

86 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

248.8 3

256.1 2.9

264.1 3.1

273.2 3.5

283 3.6

293.9 3.9

306.8 4.4

321.1 4.7

336.6 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

117.2 1.1

118.5 1.1

119.7 1

120.9 1

122 0.9

123 0.8

124.1 0.9

125.1 0.8

126 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

78.8 1.1

79.5 0.9

80.3 1

81 0.9

81.8 1

82.5 0.8

83.5 1.2

84.5 1.2

85.4 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.7 1.7

34.3 1.7

34.8 1.5

35.3 1.5

35.8 1.5

36.4 1.5

37.1 1.8

37.7 1.8

38.4 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 -1.7

19.3 0.8

19.5 0.8

19.6 0.8

19.8 0.8

20 0.8

20.1 0.8

20.3 0.8

20.4 0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

72.5 0.7

73.1 0.8

73.7 0.8

74.3 0.8

74.9 0.8

75.5 0.8

76.2 0.9

76.9 0.9

77.6 0.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

102688

105696

108888

112269

115775

119446

123265

127270

131452

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1829.6 1.5

1856.7 1.5

1884 1.5

1911.3 1.4

1938.7 1.4

1966.2 1.4

1993.8 1.4

2021.6 1.4

2049.6 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

930.5 1.6

945.2 1.6

959.9 1.6

974.8 1.6

989.8 1.5

1004.9 1.5

1020.2 1.5

1035.6 1.5

1051.4 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

14583 10329 4254

14278 10077 4201

14164 10014 4150

14209 10080 4130

14224 10145 4080

14213 10196 4017

14190 10173 4017

14095 10129 3966

14036 10114 3922


Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show moderate growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.8 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 25.8, the second lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth should be 2.1 percent, some of the lowest growth rates in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be at 39.2, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.3 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 16,717.4 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to decline by -0.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will be the second worst in the state, averaging at 11.3 percent. The Education and Health Services sector is expected to be the highest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.5 percent growth rate. This is followed by the Financial sector, averaging a growth rate of 0.3 percent a year, and the State and Local Government sector at 0.2 percent. All other sectors will be in decline. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.4 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 580,594 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,841 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 27,977 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees • Geico – 1,850 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees • FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Lakeland Commission cuts transportation impact fees • In hopes of spurring development, Lakeland reduced transportation impact fees to mirror those in Polk County. • Single-family homes were reduced by 21.6%, apartment per unit by 60.1%, and warehouses per 1,000 square feet by 40.2%. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 4, 2009 Polk’s GM dealers appear to be clear of Friday’s cuts • None of the six area GM dealers received notice from corporate headquarters that local dealerships would be affected by the corporation-wide cuts.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


Lake l a n d

• It has been speculated that the reason for this is because the dealers are in a market that is doing well due to a heavy tourism sector. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 15, 2009 PCC program has open house • Polk Community College is moving from a twoyear institution to one that offers four-year degrees. • PCC will be offering new bachelors of applied science degree in supervision and management beginning in January 2010. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 17, 2009 Report: Premiums soar as competition dwindles • Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida (45%) and Aetna (12%) control more than 50% of the healthinsurance market in the Lakeland-Winter Haven area. • This consolidation has led to increased premiums, which grew three times faster than wages in the period from 2000 to 2007. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 20, 2009 $13.9 million widening approved for Berkley Road • A $13.9 million bid by Hubbard Construction of Winter Park was approved by Polk County Commissioners. • The project is scheduled to take approximately 18 months and will provide an access road to the planned USF Polytechnic campus. • Also approved is an $11.1 million bid by Mid-State Paving Auburndale to construct the next phase of Ernie Caldwell Blvd. and Pine Tree Trail. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 20, 2009

64

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Lake l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

1

45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

2

2.5

Lakeland Payroll Employment 320.0 300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

1.5

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Lakeland Payroll Employment

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.3 -1.7 7.5 10.8

18.1 -2.2 7.5 10.6

18.2 -1.5 7.5 10.6

18.3 -0.2 7.6 10.7

18.5 0.9 7.6 10.8

18.7 3 7.7 11

18.8 3.6 7.7 11.1

19 4 7.8 11.2

19.3 4.4 7.9 11.4

19.5 4.7 7.9 11.6

19.8 5.2 8 11.8

20.1 5.6 8.1 12

20.4 6.1 8.2 12.2

20.8 6.3 8.4 12.4

21.1 6.4 8.5 12.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 -1.4

15 -0.7

15 -1.4

15 -0.7

15.1 -0.1

15.2 1.5

15.3 1.9

15.4 2.2

15.5 2.6

15.6 2.8

15.8 3.2

15.9 3.7

16.1 4.3

16.3 4.5

16.5 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31.1 25.7

30.8 25.4

30.8 25.3

30.9 25.3

31 25.3

31.3 25.5

31.5 25.5

31.7 25.6

32 25.7

32.3 25.8

32.7 26

33.1 26.2

33.5 26.4

33.9 26.6

34.2 26.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.1 3.2

38.2 2.7

38.4 2.3

38.6 2.3

38.8 1.8

38.9 1.8

39.1 1.7

39.3 1.7

39.5 1.7

39.6 1.7

39.8 1.7

40 1.7

40.2 1.9

40.4 2.1

40.7 2.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.9 -5.9

195.6 -5.7

195.1 -5.2

195.2 -3.7

195.4 -0.8

195.7 0.1

196.3 0.6

197.2 1

198.2 1.5

199.4 1.9

200.7 2.3

202.1 2.5

203.8 2.8

205.5 3

207 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

15 -8.5

14.4 -11.6

14 -13.5

13.8 -11.6

13.7 -8.6

13.8 -4.3

13.8 -1.2

13.9 0.4

14 2

14.1 2.8

14.3 3.6

14.5 4.3

14.6 4.6

14.8 4.4

14.9 4.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181.9 -5.6

181.2 -5.2

181.1 -4.4

181.3 -3

181.7 -0.1

181.9 0.4

182.5 0.7

183.3 1.1

184.2 1.4

185.3 1.8

186.4 2.1

187.6 2.4

189.2 2.7

190.7 2.9

192.1 3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 -15

11.5 -14

11.2 -14

10.9 -12.2

10.6 -10.3

10.4 -9.6

10.3 -7.7

10.3 -5.8

10.4 -2.4

10.5 1.2

10.7 3.7

10.9 6.2

11.1 7.6

11.4 8.1

11.5 7.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.6 -4.9

45.4 -4.7

45.5 -2.9

45.5 -1.2

45.6 0.1

45.6 0.5

45.7 0.4

45.7 0.4

45.8 0.3

45.9 0.6

46.3 1.4

46.6 1.9

47 2.7

47.4 3.3

47.9 3.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 25.1 11.4

9.1 25.1 11.3

9.1 25.1 11.4

9.1 25.1 11.4

9.1 25.2 11.4

9.1 25.2 11.4

9 25.1 11.5

9.1 25 11.5

9.1 24.8 11.7

9.3 24.6 11.8

9.4 24.7 12

9.5 24.8 12.2

9.6 24.9 12.4

9.8 25 12.6

9.9 25.1 12.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -5.8

1.9 -6.2

1.9 -5.5

1.9 -5.7

1.8 -6

1.8 -4.4

1.9 -1.4

1.9 2.2

1.9 4.9

1.9 4.6

1.9 2.6

1.9 0.9

1.9 0.2

1.9 0.3

1.9 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 -2.2

11.7 -3.1

11.8 -0.8

11.8 0.2

11.8 0.7

11.8 0.6

11.8 0

11.8 -0.1

11.8 0.3

11.9 1

11.9 1.5

12 1.8

12.1 2.1

12.2 2.3

12.2 2.2

26.4 -17.4

26.2 -17.7

26.1 -17.2

26.1 -13.4

26.2 -0.6

26.6 1.6

27.2 4.2

27.9 6.8

28.4 8.4

28.9 8.8

29.4 7.9

29.9 7.3

30.5 7.2

31 7.1

31.3 6.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.7 2.4

30 3.2

30.2 3.1

30.6 3.3

31 4.2

31.3 4.3

31.4 4.1

31.5 2.9

31.7 2.3

31.9 1.9

31.9 1.6

31.9 1.3

32 1

32.1 0.7

32.2 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 -6.9

16.2 -3.6

16.2 -1

16.2 -1.1

16.2 -0.6

16.2 -0.2

16.1 -0.6

16.1 -0.5

16.2 -0.3

16.2 -0.1

16.2 0.6

16.3 1.1

16.4 1.3

16.4 1.5

16.5 1.6

8.4 -3

8.4 -2.7

8.4 -1.7

8.4 -0.5

8.4 -0.1

8.4 0.6

8.4 -0.3

8.4 -0.4

8.4 -0.3

8.4 -0.4

8.4 -0.3

8.3 -0.7

8.3 -1

8.3 -0.9

8.3 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -3.6

1.3 -4.6

1.3 -2.6

1.3 -0.6

1.4 8

1.4 3.7

1.3 0.2

1.3 -1

1.3 -8.5

1.3 -3.8

1.3 -1

1.3 -0.4

1.3 0

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.6 1.3

28.6 0.8

28.5 -0.6

28.5 -0.7

28.5 -0.5

28.4 -0.5

28.3 -0.7

28.4 -0.6

28.3 -0.6

28.3 -0.4

28.3 -0.1

28.4 0.1

28.5 0.8

28.7 1.3

28.9 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16076.7

16049.7

16075.1

16116.3

16230.2

16335.4

16471.6

16583.8

16742.8

16913.2

17093.3

17283.2

17505.3

17702.6

17882.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

587.6 1.2

589.3 1.2

591.2 1.2

593.1 1.2

594.9 1.2

596.6 1.2

598.6 1.2

600.4 1.2

602.2 1.2

603.9 1.2

605.8 1.2

607.9 1.2

610.3 1.3

612.7 1.5

615.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

279.8 3.4

279.9 2.7

280.1 0.3

280.6 0.4

281.2 0.5

281.6 0.6

281.9 0.6

282.1 0.5

282.2 0.3

282.3 0.2

282.4 0.2

282.5 0.1

282.8 0.2

283.1 0.3

283.5 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.5

11.9

12.1

12.3

12.3

12.2

11.9

11.6

11.3

11.1

10.8

10.7

10.3

10

9.7

1836 1400 436

1814 1487 327

2214 1865 349

2725 2385 340

3136 2807 329

3608 3299 309

4043 3753 289

4531 4254 277

4987 4736 252

5344 5078 266

5611 5337 274

5803 5498 306

6087 5752 334

6296 5924 372

6339 5942 397

*Quarterly at an annual rate

66

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7

13.1 4.7 6 7

14.4 10.6 6.5 7.9

15.8 9.8 7.2 8.7

17.1 8.1 7.7 9.5

18 4.7 7.8 10.2

18.5 3 7.8 10.7

18.2 -1.3 7.6 10.7

18.6 1.8 7.6 10.9

12 0.6

12.4 2.7

13.3 7.7

14.2 6.7

14.9 5.2

15.3 2.1

15.2 -0.4

15 -1.1

15.1 0.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.9 24.1

25.6 24.3

27.6 25.5

29.3 26.3

30.7 26.8

31.3 26.6

31.8 26.1

31 25.6

31.2 25.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 1.7

32.5 3.8

33 1.5

34.3 3.7

35.9 4.7

36.4 1.5

37.1 1.8

38.1 2.8

38.9 1.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

182.9 -0.3

184.7 1

195.6 5.9

208.1 6.4

212.6 2.2

212.7 0.1

208.5 -2

197.6 -5.3

195.6 -1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 -2.2

18.1 -1.9

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.4

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.5

16.3 -5.2

14.8 -9.8

13.8 -6.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

164.4 -0.1

166.6 1.3

177.4 6.5

189.8 7

194.7 2.6

195.5 0.4

192.2 -1.7

182.8 -4.9

181.8 -0.5

13.6 -2.8

12.9 -5.1

14.4 11.4

16.2 12.6

16.9 4.1

15.8 -6.5

13.7 -13.4

11.7 -14.2

10.6 -10

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

44 -3

42.1 -4.2

43.9 4.3

47.6 8.4

48.9 2.8

49 0.1

47.7 -2.6

45.6 -4.4

45.6 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.5 25 10.4

9.1 22.5 10.5

9.4 23.5 11

10.3 25.3 12.1

10.4 26.1 12.5

10.1 26.4 12.5

9.6 26.2 12

9.2 25.2 11.4

9.1 25.2 11.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 -4.9

2.2 -7.9

2.2 -1.1

2.3 3

2.4 2.9

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -4.3

1.9 -6.3

1.9 -4.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 5.3

11 2

10.9 -1

11.1 1.8

11.6 4.1

11.8 2.5

12 1.2

11.7 -2.1

11.8 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 1.8

26.4 22.2

31.7 20

34.2 8

33.9 -0.8

33 -2.5

32 -3

27.2 -15

26.5 -2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -1.3

22.9 1.7

24.1 5.3

25.6 6.1

26.6 4.2

28 5.2

29.1 3.9

29.9 2.7

31.1 4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.8 4.8

15 -5.4

15.3 2.2

16.5 7.7

17 2.7

17.4 2.9

17.1 -1.8

16.3 -4.9

16.2 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 5.1

7.5 0.9

8 7.6

9 11.9

9.5 5.5

9 -5.3

8.6 -3.9

8.4 -2.5

8.4 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 3

1.4 -3

1.3 -2.4

1.4 4.4

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.1

1.3 -3.8

1.4 2.8

24.9 0.1

25.3 1.6

25.5 1

26 2

26.7 2.6

27.9 4.3

28.4 2

28.6 0.7

28.5 -0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13080.7

13811.5

14865.8

16264

16821.8

16843.8

16905.4

16154.5

16288.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

499.5 1.5

509.5 2

522.9 2.6

540.3 3.3

558.6 3.4

573.4 2.6

581.5 1.4

588.6 1.2

595.8 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

238.8 0.7

240.7 0.8

248.4 3.2

255.1 2.7

261.5 2.5

267 2.1

273.2 2.3

279.8 2.4

281.3 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.5

4.9

4

3.6

4.4

6.7

11.6

12.2

4907 4484 423

6789 6169 620

9088 8297 790

12877 11725 1152

9528 8279 1249

4379 3999 380

3231 2432 799

1797 1517 280

3378 3061 317

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.4 4.6 7.9 11.5

20.6 6.1 8.3 12.3

21.9 6.1 8.7 13.1

23.1 5.9 9.2 14

24.6 6.4 9.6 15

26.1 5.9 10.1 16

27.6 5.9 10.6 17

29.3 6.2 11.1 18.2

31.3 6.5 11.7 19.6

33.3 6.7 12.2 21.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 2.7

16.2 4.2

16.9 4.1

17.6 4.1

18.4 4.5

19.1 4

19.8 3.9

20.7 4.1

21.6 4.5

22.6 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.2 25.8

33.7 26.5

35.1 27.1

36.6 27.7

38.2 28.5

39.7 29.1

41.3 29.6

43 30.3

45.1 31.1

47.3 32.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.5 1.7

40.3 2

41.4 2.6

42.5 2.8

43.8 2.9

45.1 3

46.5 3

47.9 3.1

49.3 3

50.9 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

198.9 1.7

204.6 2.9

210.3 2.8

214.6 2.1

219.1 2.1

223 1.8

226.7 1.6

231 1.9

235 1.7

238.9 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.2

14.7 4.3

15.2 3.5

15.4 1.5

15.5 0.6

15.6 0.2

15.6 0

15.6 0.1

15.6 0

15.5 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

184.8 1.6

189.9 2.8

195.1 2.7

199.2 2.1

203.6 2.2

207.4 1.9

211.1 1.8

215.4 2

219.4 1.9

223.4 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 -0.9

11.2 7.5

12 7.2

12.7 5.9

13.2 3.8

13.6 2.6

13.9 2.3

14.3 2.9

14.5 1.8

14.8 1.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.9 0.7

47.2 2.8

49.1 4

50.4 2.7

51.4 1.8

51.9 1.1

52.3 0.8

53 1.3

53.8 1.4

54.5 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.2 24.8 11.8

9.7 25 12.5

10.2 25.5 13.2

10.5 25.8 13.7

10.7 26.2 14.1

10.8 26.1 14.6

11 25.9 15

11.2 26 15.5

11.5 26.1 15.9

11.8 26.4 16.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 3.6

1.9 0.5

2 1.6

2 1.9

2 1.7

2.1 2

2.1 1.9

2.1 1.6

2.2 1.5

2.2 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.9 0.6

12.1 2.1

12.3 1.2

12.3 0.2

12.4 0.7

12.5 0.7

12.5 0.5

12.6 0.5

12.7 0.9

12.9 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.7 8

30.7 7.1

31.8 3.6

32.8 3.3

34.7 5.6

36.5 5.3

38.5 5.4

40.8 6.1

43 5.2

44.9 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.7 2.2

32 0.9

32.4 1.2

33.1 1.9

33.8 2.4

34.6 2.2

35.3 1.9

35.9 1.7

36.4 1.5

36.9 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 -0.1

16.4 1.4

16.6 1

16.6 0.1

16.5 -0.3

16.5 -0.1

16.5 -0.2

16.4 -0.3

16.4 0

16.5 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -0.3

8.3 -0.8

8.3 -0.1

8.3 0.4

8.3 0

8.3 0

8.3 -0.1

8.3 -0.4

8.3 -0.5

8.2 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -3.7

1.3 0.1

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.6

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.9

1.4 4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 -0.4

28.6 1

29.3 2.4

29.6 1

29.8 0.8

30.1 0.8

30.3 0.8

30.5 0.8

30.8 0.8

31 0.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16833.3

17593.4

18228.7

18797.5

19522.6

20200.3

20887.8

21673.5

22485.7

23313

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

603.1 1.2

611.5 1.4

621.8 1.7

632.8 1.8

644.5 1.8

656.6 1.9

669.1 1.9

681.7 1.9

693.8 1.8

704.9 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

282.3 0.3

283 0.3

284.6 0.6

286.6 0.7

289.2 0.9

292 1

294.9 1

297.8 1

300.9 1.1

304.5 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.2

10.2

9.1

8.6

8.1

7.6

7

6.5

5.9

5.5

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5118 4851 267

6131 5779 352

6297 5896 401

6345 5864 481

6560 5868 692

6724 5868 856

6704 5752 952

6699 5672 1027

6762 5628 1134

6754 5559 1196

Continued 68

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

35.5 6.5 12.8 22.7

37.7 6.2 13.4 24.4

40 6 14 26

42.3 5.7 14.6 27.7

44.7 5.6 15.2 29.5

47.2 5.6 15.9 31.3

49.8 5.4 16.6 33.1

52.4 5.4 17.4 35.1

55.2 5.2 18.1 37.1

58 5.2 18.9 39.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 4.6

24.7 4.4

25.7 4.1

26.7 3.8

27.7 3.7

28.7 3.6

29.7 3.5

30.7 3.4

31.7 3.2

32.7 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

49.6 33

51.9 33.9

54.2 34.8

56.5 35.6

58.8 36.4

61.2 37.2

63.6 37.9

66.1 38.7

68.6 39.4

71.1 40

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 3.2

54.2 3.1

55.8 3

57.4 2.9

59.1 2.9

60.8 2.9

62.6 3

64.5 3

66.4 2.9

68.3 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

242.5 1.5

246 1.4

249.5 1.4

253 1.4

256.8 1.5

260.5 1.5

264.2 1.4

268.1 1.5

271.9 1.4

275.6 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 -0.9

15.2 -1.4

15 -1.2

14.8 -1.2

14.6 -1.2

14.5 -0.9

14.4 -0.9

14.2 -0.9

14.1 -0.9

14 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

227.1 1.6

230.8 1.6

234.5 1.6

238.2 1.6

242.1 1.7

246 1.6

249.9 1.6

253.9 1.6

257.8 1.6

261.6 1.4

15 1.5

15.2 1.4

15.4 1.5

15.7 1.6

16 2

16.3 2.2

16.6 1.8

16.9 1.5

17.1 1.4

17.4 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

55.3 1.4

56.2 1.5

57 1.6

57.9 1.5

58.8 1.5

59.6 1.5

60.4 1.2

61.1 1.2

61.8 1.1

62.4 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

12.1 26.6 16.6

12.4 26.8 17

12.6 27 17.5

12.9 27.1 17.9

13.1 27.3 18.3

13.3 27.4 18.7

13.5 27.5 19.1

13.7 27.7 19.4

13.8 27.9 19.6

13.9 28.1 19.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 1.5

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.7

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.7

2.5 1.9

2.5 2

2.6 2.1

2.6 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13 1

13.1 0.9

13.2 0.7

13.3 0.7

13.4 1

13.5 0.8

13.6 0.6

13.7 0.7

13.8 0.9

14 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

46.7 3.8

48.3 3.5

49.9 3.3

51.6 3.4

53.5 3.7

55.3 3.5

57.2 3.5

59.3 3.7

61.4 3.5

63.2 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.4 1.1

37.8 1.1

38.2 1.1

38.6 1.1

39 0.9

39.3 0.9

39.7 1

40.1 1

40.5 1.1

41 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 0.3

16.6 0.5

16.7 0.4

16.8 0.4

16.8 0.4

16.9 0.3

16.9 0.4

17 0.4

17.1 0.6

17.2 0.5

8.3 0.5

8.4 1

8.4 0.9

8.5 0.7

8.6 0.6

8.6 0.8

8.7 0.9

8.8 0.9

8.9 0.9

8.9 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.8

1.4 0.6

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.6 3.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 0.9

31.6 0.9

31.8 0.8

32 0.7

32.3 0.7

32.5 0.6

32.7 0.7

32.9 0.6

33.1 0.6

33.3 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

24143.2

24961.5

25738.5

26514.5

27353.5

28190.3

29020.7

29866.4

30725.9

31599

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

715.7 1.5

726.6 1.5

737.7 1.5

748.8 1.5

759.9 1.5

771.1 1.5

782.3 1.5

793.5 1.4

804.8 1.4

816.1 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

307.9 1.1

311.3 1.1

314.9 1.1

318.5 1.2

322.4 1.2

326.9 1.4

331.5 1.4

336.2 1.4

341 1.4

345.8 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

6574 5415 1159

6401 5262 1139

6230 5133 1097

6184 5052 1132

6193 5049 1144

6113 4987 1126

5978 4848 1130

5799 4672 1127

5676 4546 1130

5636 4503 1133

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

60.9 5 19.6 41.3

64 4.9 20.4 43.6

67.1 4.9 21.1 45.9

70.4 4.9 21.9 48.4

73.9 5 22.8 51.1

77.6 5.1 23.7 53.9

81.6 5.2 24.6 57

85.9 5.2 25.7 60.2

90.4 5.2 26.7 63.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 3

34.6 2.9

35.6 2.9

36.7 2.9

37.8 3

38.9 3.1

40.2 3.3

41.5 3.2

42.8 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

73.7 40.7

76.3 41.3

78.9 41.9

81.7 42.6

84.6 43.3

87.7 44

91.1 44.9

94.6 45.7

98.3 46.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.2 2.8

72.3 2.9

74.3 2.7

76.3 2.7

78.4 2.8

80.6 2.8

82.8 2.8

85.1 2.7

87.3 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

278.4 1

281.1 1

283.7 0.9

286.6 1

289.4 1

292.6 1.1

296.6 1.4

300.8 1.4

305.6 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 -0.6

13.8 -0.9

13.7 -0.8

13.6 -0.6

13.5 -0.5

13.5 -0.4

13.5 -0.2

13.5 0.1

13.5 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

264.5 1.1

267.3 1.1

270 1

272.9 1.1

275.9 1.1

279.1 1.2

283.1 1.4

287.3 1.5

292 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 1.3

17.8 1

17.9 0.8

18.1 0.7

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.8

18.5 1

18.7 1

18.9 1.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.9 0.9

63.4 0.7

63.7 0.4

63.9 0.4

64 0.3

64.2 0.2

64.5 0.5

64.7 0.4

64.9 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

14 28.2 20.1

14.1 28.4 20.3

14.1 28.5 20.3

14.1 28.7 20.3

14.1 28.9 20.2

14.1 29 20.1

14.1 29.3 20.1

14.1 29.5 20.1

14.1 29.6 20

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.7 1.9

2.7 1.9

2.8 1.8

2.8 1.9

2.9 1.7

2.9 1.7

3 2

3.1 2

3.1 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 0.8

14.2 0.6

14.3 0.6

14.4 0.8

14.5 0.8

14.6 0.8

14.8 0.9

14.9 0.9

15 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

64.5 2.1

65.9 2.1

67.4 2.3

69.2 2.6

71 2.7

73.2 3

75.8 3.6

78.8 3.9

82.3 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41.4 0.9

41.7 0.9

42.1 0.8

42.4 0.8

42.7 0.7

43 0.6

43.3 0.7

43.6 0.6

43.8 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 0.5

17.3 0.3

17.4 0.4

17.4 0.3

17.5 0.4

17.5 0.2

17.6 0.6

17.7 0.6

17.8 0.4

9 0.8

9.1 0.9

9.1 0.6

9.2 0.7

9.3 0.7

9.3 0.7

9.4 0.9

9.5 0.9

9.6 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -1.6

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.7 0.9

1.7 0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 0.5

33.6 0.5

33.8 0.6

33.9 0.5

34.1 0.5

34.3 0.6

34.5 0.6

34.7 0.6

35 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

32419.9

33230.3

34090.8

35003.2

35947.1

36930.4

37947.8

39012.7

40142.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

827.3 1.4

838.7 1.4

850.2 1.4

861.7 1.4

873.2 1.3

884.7 1.3

896.2 1.3

907.7 1.3

919.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

350.5 1.4

355.3 1.4

360.1 1.4

365 1.3

369.8 1.3

374.6 1.3

379.5 1.3

384.4 1.3

389.3 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5529 4415 1114

5383 4257 1127

5305 4171 1134

5287 4130 1158

5262 4088 1174

5231 4039 1193

5197 3965 1232

5140 3884 1256

5098 3815 1283


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate-to-low growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.4 percent annually, one of the slowest rates in the state. However, per capita income is the second highest in Florida, at a level of 36.5. Average annual wage growth should be 2.3 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 50.0, one of the highest in the state. Miami is expected to be averaging a population growth rate of 0.1 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. The area ranked first in the state for gross metro product at a level of 210,686.4 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to decline at an average rate of -0.2 percent each year. Unemployment is expected to be 9.4 percent, one of the lowest in the state. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 2.9 percent annually, followed by Education and Health Services at an average of 1.9 percent growth each year. All other sectors will see declining rates. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -5.7 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,414,772 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,398,245 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,751,234 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,265,293 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,831,077 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 240,849 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • Federal Government – 20,400 employees • Florida State Government – 17,000 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,826 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • University of Miami – 9,874 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Source: The Beacon Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Lease-To-Own condo deals attracting buyers • South Florida developers, such as Related Group, are increasingly using lease-to-own programs that credit 12 months of rent toward a down payment to fill empty complexes. • Lease-to-own is serving as a bridge between developers and buyers during the credit crunch. • Corporate lease-to-own programs were popular during the last condo slump in the 1980s when contract terms were similar to current trends. • Lease-to-own options are very market specific and can only be expected to last another year or two until the credit slump improves. Source: Miami Herald, May 4, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Funding denial puts Tri-Rail on rocky ride • South Florida’s commuter service Tri-Rail is considering shutting down after failing to secure a $2 surcharge on Florida car rental transactions that would have raised 45 to 50 million dollars, enough to cover its operation costs. • Tri-Rail’s most significant economic crisis in its history comes at a time when it is experiencing record ridership; roughly 14,000 passengers a day compared to around 7,500 in 2005. • The increase in ridership is most likely a result of increased fuel prices and the recession. • A board meeting on May 22 will determine the fate of Tri-Rail, deciding from two bleak pathways that will govern the future of the 20-year-old commuter line. Source: Miami Herald, May 8, 2009 Miami budget shortfall forces hiring freeze • In the face of a $10.2 million deficit, the City of Miami has instituted a hiring freeze as well as denying paid leave time for salaried employees. • Officials could not promise to avoid future layoffs as a result of the budget deficit. • City CFO Larry Spring expressed that it was his goal to lift the hiring freeze by the end of the fiscal year, saying “but right now, it’s hard to tell.” Source: Miami Herald, May 13, 2009 Dalai Lama offers $100,000 gift to FIU • Tibetan leader-in-exile the Dalai Lama offered $100,000 in an attempt to save Florida International University’s religious studies department, which is threatened with closure resulting from $27 million in budget cuts. • The $100,000 gift would not alone be enough to save the program with around 125 undergraduate students and 12 full-time faculty members, a department that costs the university roughly $600,000 a year.

72

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• Recreation/Sports Management and Athletic Training are also scheduled to close saving the university an additional $400,000 a year and will be decided upon in a June 12 meeting. Source: Miami Herald, May 26, 2009 South Florida tourism slump may be easing • The bleeding of the Miami tourism industry may finally be slowing as room rates in Miami-Dade County fell 12% in April, the smallest rate decline since January of last year. • Even the Keys, the area’s best performing sector, only improved 2 points and at the expense of reducing rates by 12%. • Many officials in the tourism industry expect European and Canadian tourists to sustain the industry through the critical summer season as was the case in the summer of 2008. Source: Miami Herald, May 27, 2009


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each Fort Lauderdale Beach MSA Miami - Ford Lauderdale -- Pompano Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Payroll Employment 4000.0

(Thousands)

3500.0

10.0%

3000.0

8.0% 6.0%

2500.0

4.0%

2000.0

2.0%

0.8

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

1500.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 600000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

500000.0

4.0%

400000.0

2.0%

300000.0

0.0%

200000.0

-2.0%

100000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Miami Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

235.7 -1.8 110.6 125.1

232.3 -2.6 110.2 122

233.1 -1.7 110.8 122.3

234.9 -0.6 111.5 123.4

236.8 0.5 112.1 124.7

238.9 2.8 112.7 126.1

241.1 3.4 113.7 127.5

243.2 3.5 114.8 128.5

245.7 3.8 115.8 129.9

248.7 4.1 116.8 131.8

251.7 4.4 118 133.7

255.2 4.9 119.6 135.7

259 5.4 121.2 137.8

262.8 5.7 122.9 139.9

266.3 5.8 124.4 141.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

194.5 -1.5

191.7 -1.1

192 -1.7

192.8 -1.2

193.5 -0.5

194.4 1.4

195.4 1.8

196.2 1.8

197.3 2

198.7 2.2

200.3 2.5

202.2 3

204.3 3.6

206.3 3.8

208 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

43.4 35.8

42.8 35.3

43 35.4

43.4 35.6

43.8 35.8

44.2 36

44.6 36.2

45 36.3

45.5 36.5

46 36.7

46.5 37

47.1 37.3

47.7 37.6

48.3 38

48.9 38.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 3.2

48.6 2.8

48.8 2.3

49.1 2.4

49.4 2.1

49.6 2.2

49.9 2.2

50.2 2.1

50.4 2

50.6 2

50.9 1.9

51.2 2

51.5 2.2

51.8 2.4

52.2 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2273.5 -4.4

2257 -4

2255.3 -3.2

2254.9 -2.3

2256.9 -0.7

2257.9 0

2265.3 0.4

2274.6 0.9

2284.8 1.2

2295.4 1.7

2307.7 1.9

2323.7 2.2

2341.4 2.5

2358.1 2.7

2371.8 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

85 -9.7

81.4 -11.6

79 -12.8

78.1 -12.6

77.4 -8.9

77.4 -4.9

77.7 -1.6

78.1 0

78.7 1.6

79.6 2.9

80.7 3.8

81.4 4.3

82.1 4.4

82.8 4

83.6 3.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2188.5 -4.2

2175.6 -3.7

2176.3 -2.8

2176.8 -1.9

2179.5 -0.4

2180.5 0.2

2187.5 0.5

2196.5 0.9

2206.1 1.2

2215.7 1.6

2227 1.8

2242.3 2.1

2259.3 2.4

2275.3 2.7

2288.2 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

113.7 -18.1

111 -15

107.5 -14.1

104.6 -12.7

101.2 -11

99 -10.8

99.3 -7.6

98.6 -5.7

99.2 -2

100.1 1.1

101.1 1.8

102.7 4.2

104.6 5.5

106.3 6.2

107.8 6.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

518.6 -5.1

515.5 -4.3

514.3 -3

513.9 -2.5

513.4 -1

512.6 -0.6

511.1 -0.6

510.1 -0.7

509.4 -0.8

510.2 -0.5

513.1 0.4

516 1.2

519.3 2

523.2 2.5

526.8 2.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

140.5 286.3 91.8

139.3 285.4 91.3

139.6 283.4 91.9

139.1 283.4 92.2

138.5 283.4 92.1

137.9 283 92

137.1 281.7 91.8

136.9 279.8 92.2

137.9 277 93.3

139.3 275.3 94.5

140.6 276 95.6

142.1 276.5 96.9

143.8 276.9 98.2

145.6 277.6 99.9

147.5 277.8 101.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 -5.2

47.1 -5.4

46.9 -4.9

46.1 -6

45 -7

44.8 -4.9

45.5 -3

46.5 0.8

47 4.5

46.8 4.5

46.5 2.4

46.4 -0.1

46.3 -1.4

46.3 -1.2

46.2 -0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

166.2 -4.3

166.5 -2.1

167 -0.8

166.9 -0.3

166.4 0.1

166 -0.3

165.7 -0.8

165.8 -0.6

166.2 -0.1

166.8 0.5

167.4 1

168.1 1.4

169 1.7

169.7 1.8

170.2 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

330.8 -8

325.8 -7.9

328.9 -6.1

330.1 -3.6

331 0.1

335.4 3

345.9 5.2

356.1 7.9

363.3 9.7

369 10

375.3 8.5

384.4 7.9

393 8.2

400.5 8.6

405.4 8

334 2

335.5 2.3

337.5 1.1

340.9 2.2

344.7 3.2

348.4 3.8

349.6 3.6

349.4 2.5

351.3 1.9

353.1 1.3

353.7 1.2

353.8 1.3

354.5 0.9

355.1 0.6

355.2 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

252.8 -2.8

252.2 -1.6

252.4 -0.2

252 -0.9

252 -0.3

251.9 -0.1

250.6 -0.7

249.8 -0.9

249.8 -0.9

249.8 -0.8

249.9 -0.3

250.2 0.1

250.5 0.3

250.7 0.4

251.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

101.1 -2.9

100.4 -3.1

101.3 -2.1

101.9 0.5

102.2 1.1

102.7 2.3

102.7 1.3

102.9 1

103.1 0.8

103.2 0.4

103.2 0.5

103.1 0.1

102.9 -0.2

103 -0.2

103.2 0

33.6 -1.1

33.2 -2.4

33.2 -2.4

34 0.2

38 13.1

34.6 4.3

33.2 -0.1

33 -3

32.9 -13.6

32.8 -5.2

32.8 -1.1

32.8 -0.5

32.8 -0.2

32.8 0

32.8 0.1

289.3 0.2

288.4 -2

287.3 -1.2

286.4 -1.4

285.6 -1.3

285 -1.2

284 -1.2

284.2 -0.8

284 -0.6

284 -0.4

283.9 0

284.7 0.2

286.3 0.8

287.6 1.3

289.3 1.9

203225.9 202451.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

202983

203369

204590

205652

207423

208755

210631

212494

214464

216755

219287

221552

223525

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5430.8 0.3

5423 0.1

5415.5 -0.2

5410.3 -0.4

5406 -0.5

5403 -0.4

5401.5 -0.3

5402.4 -0.1

5404.9 0

5408.8 0.1

5413.9 0.2

5420.2 0.3

5427.9 0.4

5436.6 0.5

5446.6 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2810.2 -0.9

2802.6 -1.5

2801.2 -1.7

2801.7 -0.7

2803.8 -0.2

2806.7 0.1

2810.9 0.3

2814.3 0.4

2816.2 0.4

2818.7 0.4

2822.2 0.4

2825.6 0.4

2828.9 0.5

2834.2 0.5

2839.1 0.6

9.4 3401 2067 1333

9.6 4028 2596 1432

9.8 6721 3512 3209

10 8720 4789 3930

10.1 10157 6014 4143

10 12159 7628 4531

9.8 13951 9054 4897

9.6 15707 10683 5024

9.5 17584 12349 5235

9.4 19312 13729 5583

9.2 21018 14958 6059

9.1 22965 16187 6778

8.9 25082 17433 7649

8.7 27091 18403 8688

8.5 28400 18878 9522

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

*Quarterly at an annual rate

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4

189.8 9.1 93.5 96.3

205.6 8.3 101.1 104.6

222.6 8.2 108 114.6

232.5 4.5 111.6 120.9

238.1 2.4 112 126.1

234.4 -1.5 110.8 123.6

237.9 1.5 112.5 125.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

164 2.2

164.8 0.5

175.1 6.3

184.3 5.2

194.1 5.3

197.6 1.8

195.8 -0.9

193.3 -1.3

194 0.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.7 31.6

33.1 31.4

35.7 32.9

38.2 34.3

41.2 36

43.1 36.6

43.9 36.1

43.2 35.6

44 35.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38 2.7

39.5 3.9

41 3.8

42.7 4.2

44.7 4.8

45.9 2.7

47.1 2.5

48.4 2.8

49.5 2.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2198.7 -0.2

2204.7 0.3

2270.1 3

2355.1 3.7

2401 2

2416.5 0.6

2364.7 -2.1

2273.6 -3.9

2258.7 -0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

112.4 -8.6

103.4 -8

100.8 -2.5

101.1 0.3

100.6 -0.5

98.6 -2

93.2 -5.5

83.7 -10.2

77.7 -7.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2086.3 0.3

2101.3 0.7

2169.3 3.2

2253.9 3.9

2300.4 2.1

2318 0.8

2271.5 -2

2189.9 -3.6

2181.1 -0.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

120.9 -1

122.4 1.2

131.5 7.5

147.4 12.1

164.3 11.5

161.1 -2

135.5 -15.9

113 -16.6

101 -10.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

516.4 -1.5

510.9 -1.1

517.4 1.3

530.5 2.5

543.7 2.5

550 1.1

541.6 -1.5

518.8 -4.2

512.8 -1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

132.4 286.8 97.1

134.3 282.7 93.9

138.7 285.6 93.2

141.2 294 95.3

144.6 303.4 95.7

147.6 306 96.5

145.2 300.5 95.8

140.7 286.2 92.2

138.2 282.9 92

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

61.8 -6.1

57.5 -6.9

56.6 -1.6

55.9 -1.1

53.2 -4.8

52 -2.4

50.4 -3

47.9 -5.1

45.3 -5.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

162.8 1.8

164.3 1

170 3.5

178.2 4.8

183.5 2.9

181.3 -1.2

172.2 -5

166.8 -3.2

166.2 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

324.2 0.1

325.6 0.4

348.4 7

375.1 7.7

375.8 0.2

371.1 -1.2

356.5 -3.9

332 -6.9

335.6 1.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

274.6 4.1

284 3.4

293.5 3.4

301.5 2.7

307.9 2.1

318.8 3.5

328.8 3.1

335.2 1.9

345.9 3.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

224.9 -1.1

229.4 2

240.2 4.7

247.5 3

251.6 1.7

257.9 2.5

257.3 -0.2

252.9 -1.7

251.6 -0.5

94 0.3

95.8 1.9

97.7 2

99 1.3

99.3 0.3

100.8 1.5

103.6 2.8

101 -2.5

102.4 1.3

32.1 1.3

34.1 6.2

34.2 0.4

34.5 1

34 -1.4

34 -0.2

34 0.1

33.5 -1.5

35 4.4

274.7 2.5

277.4 1

279.8 0.9

284.3 1.6

287.1 1

291.2 1.4

291.6 0.2

288.9 -0.9

285.2 -1.3

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

181143

187613

196705

211507

218112

218750

218660

205622

205258

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5193.9 1.5

5252.8 1.1

5318.9 1.3

5376.3 1.1

5398.7 0.4

5397 0

5417.3 0.4

5424.8 0.1

5405.2 -0.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2585.3 1

2596.9 0.5

2629.7 1.3

2691.9 2.4

2756.7 2.4

2811 2

2839.9 1

2808.7 -1.1

2805.8 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.2

5.7

5.1

4.2

3.6

4.1

5.8

9.3

10

37858 21870 15987

37956 23592 14364

40690 23676 17014

41844 22548 19295

32801 15772 17029

14805 7580 7225

7982 3705 4277

4714 2542 2172

11247 6871 4375

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

247.3 4 116.4 131

260.8 5.5 122 138.8

275.8 5.7 128.3 147.5

291 5.5 134.3 156.7

309.2 6.2 141.6 167.6

328.1 6.1 149.2 178.9

348 6.1 157 191

370.2 6.4 165.8 204.4

395 6.7 174.9 220.1

422.4 6.9 184.5 237.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

198.1 2.1

205.2 3.6

213 3.8

220.9 3.7

230.6 4.4

240.2 4.2

249.9 4

260.6 4.3

272.7 4.6

286.2 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

45.7 36.6

48 37.8

50.3 38.9

52.6 39.9

55.1 41.1

57.7 42.2

60.3 43.3

63.1 44.4

66.3 45.8

69.9 47.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.5 2

51.7 2.3

53.1 2.8

54.7 3

56.5 3.2

58.3 3.2

60.2 3.2

62.1 3.3

64.2 3.2

66.4 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2290.6 1.4

2348.8 2.5

2401 2.2

2441.5 1.7

2494.5 2.2

2546.8 2.1

2596.7 2

2655 2.2

2713.1 2.2

2768.8 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

79.3 2.1

82.5 4.1

85.1 3.2

85.7 0.7

85.6 -0.2

85.1 -0.6

84.5 -0.7

84.1 -0.5

83.8 -0.4

83.2 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2211.3 1.4

2266.3 2.5

2315.9 2.2

2355.8 1.7

2408.9 2.3

2461.7 2.2

2512.3 2.1

2570.9 2.3

2629.4 2.3

2685.6 2.1

99.8 -1.3

105.4 5.6

110.8 5.1

114.8 3.7

120.4 4.9

126.2 4.8

131.8 4.4

138.1 4.7

143.2 3.7

148 3.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

510.7 -0.4

521.3 2.1

537.9 3.2

549 2.1

557.5 1.5

562 0.8

565.5 0.6

572.6 1.3

580.9 1.4

589 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

138.7 277 93.9

144.8 277.2 99.1

151.5 281.4 103.7

154.5 285.3 106.4

157.4 288.4 109.4

159.5 287.3 112.7

161.8 285.6 115.7

165.6 286.2 119.2

169.8 288.1 122.2

174.3 290.8 124.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

46.7 3

46.3 -0.8

46.7 0.9

47.4 1.4

48 1.5

49 1.9

49.9 2

50.8 1.8

51.7 1.6

52.4 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

166.5 0.2

169.2 1.6

170.4 0.7

170.3 -0.1

171.7 0.9

173.1 0.8

173.9 0.5

174.7 0.4

176.2 0.9

178.4 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

365.9 9

395.8 8.2

412.6 4.2

430.3 4.3

458.8 6.6

486.8 6.1

515.8 6

550.4 6.7

583.6 6

613.3 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

351.9 1.7

354.7 0.8

356.5 0.5

361.6 1.4

369.2 2.1

378.6 2.6

386.4 2.1

393 1.7

399.2 1.6

404.9 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

249.8 -0.7

250.7 0.3

251.8 0.4

250.4 -0.5

248.5 -0.8

247.9 -0.2

247.8 0

247.5 -0.1

248.3 0.3

249.9 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

103.1 0.7

103 -0.1

103.6 0.6

104.8 1.1

105.1 0.3

105.5 0.4

105.7 0.2

105.6 -0.2

105.2 -0.3

105.1 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

32.9 -6

32.8 -0.2

32.9 0.2

32.9 0.2

33.1 0.5

33.3 0.7

33.5 0.7

33.7 0.7

34 0.6

34.6 1.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

284 -0.4

287 1

292.7 2

294.4 0.6

296.5 0.7

299.1 0.9

301.8 0.9

304.5 0.9

307.1 0.9

309.9 0.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

211586

220280

227150

233501

242613

251602

260682

271044

281978

293022

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5407.5 0

5432.8 0.5

5477.7 0.8

5536.4 1.1

5608.1 1.3

5689.4 1.4

5775.1 1.5

5863.1 1.5

5952.9 1.5

6043.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2817.9 0.4

2831.9 0.5

2852.3 0.7

2874.9 0.8

2905.7 1.1

2944.9 1.3

2986.5 1.4

3028.4 1.4

3070 1.4

3109.1 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.4

8.8

8.2

8

7.6

7.1

6.7

6.2

5.7

5.2

18405 12930 5475

25885 17725 8159

29556 19479 10077

31197 20133 11064

35696 21801 13895

38083 22329 15754

39405 22373 17033

41023 22544 18479

43167 22766 20401

45285 22999 22286

Continued 76

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

450.6 6.7 194.3 256.3

479.3 6.4 204 275.4

509.2 6.2 214.2 294.9

539.5 6 224.9 314.6

571.2 5.9 236.3 334.9

604.2 5.8 248.2 356

638.5 5.7 260.6 377.9

674.3 5.6 273.8 400.4

711.1 5.5 287.5 423.6

749.5 5.4 301.6 448

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

299.8 4.7

313.3 4.5

326.8 4.3

340 4

353.5 4

367.1 3.9

380.7 3.7

394.5 3.6

408.1 3.5

421.9 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

73.4 48.9

77 50.3

80.6 51.7

84.1 53

87.8 54.3

91.5 55.6

95.3 56.8

99.2 58

103.2 59.2

107.2 60.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.6 3.5

70.9 3.3

73.3 3.3

75.6 3.3

78.1 3.2

80.6 3.2

83.2 3.2

85.9 3.2

88.6 3.2

91.4 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2817.5 1.8

2864.3 1.7

2911.8 1.7

2961.2 1.7

3014.6 1.8

3067.5 1.8

3120.4 1.7

3176.1 1.8

3232.3 1.8

3286.1 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

82.2 -1.2

80.7 -1.8

79.3 -1.7

78.2 -1.5

77.2 -1.3

76.5 -1

75.7 -1

75 -1

74.2 -1

73.6 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2735.3 1.8

2783.7 1.8

2832.5 1.8

2883 1.8

2937.4 1.9

2991 1.8

3044.7 1.8

3101.1 1.9

3158 1.8

3212.4 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

152.7 3.1

157.1 2.9

161.4 2.8

166 2.8

171.4 3.3

177.2 3.3

182.5 3

187.3 2.7

192.1 2.6

197.5 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

596.7 1.3

604.4 1.3

612.1 1.3

620 1.3

627.7 1.3

635.1 1.2

641.3 1

647.5 1

652.9 0.8

657.9 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

178.7 292.7 126.3

182.6 294.4 128.6

186 296 130.9

189.4 297.6 133.2

192.7 298.9 135.5

195.7 299.9 137.7

198.2 301.5 139.2

200.5 303.3 140.5

202 305.6 141.3

203.4 307.5 142.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

53.3 1.7

54.2 1.7

55.2 1.8

56.2 1.9

57.2 1.8

58.3 2

59.6 2.1

60.9 2.3

62.4 2.4

63.8 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

180.2 1

181.5 0.7

182.5 0.6

183.6 0.6

185.1 0.9

186.6 0.8

187.8 0.6

189 0.7

190.6 0.8

192.6 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

638.4 4.1

662.4 3.8

687.3 3.8

713.6 3.8

743 4.1

772.2 3.9

802.4 3.9

835.1 4.1

868.1 3.9

897.2 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

409.4 1.1

413.4 1

417.6 1

421.9 1

425.7 0.9

429.1 0.8

433 0.9

437.2 1

441.8 1

446.4 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

251.5 0.7

253.3 0.7

254.9 0.6

256.7 0.7

258.4 0.7

259.9 0.6

261.7 0.7

263.5 0.7

265.9 0.9

267.9 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

105.9 0.8

107.3 1.3

108.6 1.2

109.7 1

110.7 0.9

111.9 1.1

113.3 1.3

114.8 1.3

116.2 1.3

117.7 1.3

34.5 -0.2

34.7 0.7

35 0.7

35.2 0.7

35.5 0.7

35.7 0.7

35.9 0.7

36.2 0.7

36.4 0.7

37.6 3.3

312.8 0.9

315.3 0.8

317.8 0.8

320.1 0.7

322.5 0.8

325 0.8

327.3 0.7

329.5 0.7

331.7 0.6

333.7 0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

303973

314713

325005

335476

346885

358243

369571

381175

393047

405118

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6135.1 1.5

6227.3 1.5

6320.2 1.5

6413.9 1.5

6508.3 1.5

6603.3 1.5

6699 1.4

6795.5 1.4

6892.3 1.4

6989.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3147.1 1.2

3184.5 1.2

3222.6 1.2

3262 1.2

3303.5 1.3

3351.3 1.4

3401.2 1.5

3452.4 1.5

3504.2 1.5

3556.3 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5

5

4.9

4.9

5

5

5

5

5

5.1

46666 22969 23697

47301 22881 24420

47371 22943 24428

47444 23005 24439

48050 23465 24585

48390 23643 24747

48453 23469 24984

48361 23138 25223

48493 23018 25475

49114 23286 25828

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

788.5 5.2 314.9 473.6

829.3 5.2 328.7 500.6

872.1 5.2 343 529.1

917.9 5.2 358.3 559.5

966.5 5.3 374.5 592

1018.8 5.4 392.1 626.6

1075.2 5.5 411.7 663.5

1135.3 5.6 432.5 702.8

1198.9 5.6 454.4 744.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

435.3 3.2

449 3.1

463.2 3.2

478.3 3.3

494.3 3.3

511.2 3.4

529.4 3.6

548.5 3.6

568.4 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

111.3 61.4

115.4 62.5

119.8 63.6

124.4 64.8

129.3 66.1

134.5 67.5

140.1 69

146.1 70.6

152.3 72.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

94.3 3.1

97.2 3.1

100.1 3

103.2 3

106.3 3.1

109.7 3.2

113.2 3.2

116.8 3.1

120.3 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

3328.8 1.3

3370.7 1.3

3414.4 1.3

3462.1 1.4

3510.4 1.4

3562.5 1.5

3624.9 1.8

3692.6 1.9

3764.9 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

73.1 -0.7

72.4 -0.9

71.8 -0.9

71.2 -0.8

70.7 -0.7

70.2 -0.7

69.9 -0.5

69.8 -0.2

69.7 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3255.7 1.3

3298.3 1.3

3342.6 1.3

3390.8 1.4

3439.7 1.4

3492.3 1.5

3555 1.8

3622.9 1.9

3695.2 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

202.4 2.5

206.7 2.1

210.8 2

214.6 1.8

218.5 1.8

222.8 2

227.8 2.2

232.8 2.2

238 2.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

661.8 0.6

665.1 0.5

666.9 0.3

668.3 0.2

669.1 0.1

669.7 0.1

671.7 0.3

673.2 0.2

674.3 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

204.1 309.1 143.1

204.6 310.9 143.2

204.6 312.8 142.1

204.5 314.5 141.1

204.2 316.2 139.8

203.9 317.7 138.5

204 319.9 137.5

204 321.8 136.3

204.1 323.3 135

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

65.2 2.2

66.6 2.1

68 2.1

69.5 2.1

70.8 2

72.3 2

74 2.3

75.7 2.4

77.6 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

194.1 0.8

195.3 0.6

196.6 0.6

198.3 0.9

200 0.9

201.6 0.8

203.4 0.9

205.3 0.9

207 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

920.1 2.6

943.5 2.5

970.3 2.8

1001.5 3.2

1034.2 3.3

1070.9 3.5

1113.1 3.9

1161.3 4.3

1214.7 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

450.3 0.9

454.1 0.8

457.6 0.8

461.1 0.8

464 0.6

466.6 0.6

469.8 0.7

472.6 0.6

475 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

270.2 0.8

271.9 0.6

273.8 0.7

275.4 0.6

277.4 0.7

278.9 0.6

281.5 0.9

284 0.9

286.2 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

119.1 1.2

120.6 1.2

121.8 1

123 1.1

124.3 1

125.7 1.1

127.4 1.4

129.1 1.3

130.7 1.3

36.9 -1.8

37.2 0.7

37.4 0.7

37.7 0.7

37.9 0.7

38.2 0.7

38.5 0.7

38.7 0.7

38.9 0.6

335.5 0.5

337.3 0.6

339.4 0.6

341.4 0.6

343.4 0.6

345.6 0.6

347.9 0.7

350.2 0.6

352.7 0.7

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

416510

427838

439979

452862

466145

480020

494318

509400

525206

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

7086.6 1.4

7184 1.4

7281.6 1.4

7379.3 1.3

7477.2 1.3

7575.3 1.3

7673.8 1.3

7772.7 1.3

7872.4 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3608.8 1.5

3661.6 1.5

3714.9 1.5

3768.6 1.4

3822.6 1.4

3877 1.4

3931.9 1.4

3987.3 1.4

4043.9 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

49012 23347 25665

48937 23102 25835

49208 23205 26003

49872 23515 26357

50298 23813 26485

50586 24072 26514

51217 24226 26991

51455 24332 27123

51799 24506 27293


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples – Marco Island MSA is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth, per capita income, and average annual wage level. Personal income will grow at a rate of 3.8 percent and per capita income will average a level of 54.9. Average annual wage will be at a level of 50.3. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent, one of the highest in the state. Population growth will average at 0.7 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level will be at 9,340.2 (Mill), the second lowest in the state. Employment growth is expected to average 0.1 percent growth each year, tied for second highest in the state. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 10.5 percent. Education and Health Services represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.2 percent each year. Following that sector is the Financial sector, with a growth rate of 1.4 percent annually, and then the Federal Government sector with 1.3 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.8 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 315,258 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 149,548 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 9.2% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,772 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County Public Schools – 5,365 employees • Collier County Government – 3,788 employees • NCH Healthcare System – 2,269 employees • Registry Resort/Naples Grand – 880 employees • Ritz Carlton Hotel – 870 employees • City of Naples – 493 employees • Naples Beach and Tennis Club – 482 employees • Allen Systems Group – 221 employees • Collier County Health Department – 219 employees • Wilson Miller, Inc. – 140 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Lee commissioners say budget savings plan is confusing • Lee County came up with $35 million in savings to compensate for a $30-million revenue budget shortfall. • The shortfall was less than the anticipated $45 million due to improved property tax collections. • The savings were obtained mainly from not filling vacant positions, lower fuel costs, and capital building projects that would not have been completed this year. Source: Naples News, May 4, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Federal stimulus, county dollars bridge Marco to the mainland • Federal stimulus dollars are being directed toward two bridge projects: the repair and maintenance of the Goodland Bridge and the Jolley Bridge’s new span. • A total of $28,542,998 will be spent between the two projects. • Officials are convinced these projects will improve island business, tourism, and safety. Source: Naples News, May 12, 2009 Live Naples City Council blog: Employee benefits may be scaled down • Possible changes to the employee benefit plan include doubling the out-of-pocket maximum, changing co-pays to a coinsurance percentage, and allowing smoking to be a factor in whether or not a person is hired. • If enacted, these changes would take effect in fiscal year 2010. Source: Naples News, May 18, 2009 Tourism levels continue downward trend in Collier County • The number of tourists staying in hotels or other short-term rentals is down 6.2% from last year. • Direct expenditures from tourists are down by 11.4%. Source: Naples News, May 28, 2009

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

Collier County tourist tax won’t increase, for now • After opposition was raised, Collier County’s Tourist Development Committee decided against raising the county’s tourist tax. • The tax is currently 4%. • Instead revenue will be shifted toward marketing. Source: Naples News, June 1, 2009


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.5

1

Naples Payroll Employment 300.0

6.0%

150.0

4.0%

100.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

50.0

(Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

25.0%

30000.0

20.0%

25000.0

15.0%

20000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Naples Payroll Employment

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

(percent change year ago)

10.0%

15000.0

5.0%

10000.0

0.0%

5000.0 0.0

2.5

200.0

8.0%

35000.0

2

250.0

10.0%

2.0%

1.5

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-5.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.4 -1.4 5.7 14.7

20.3 -1.2 5.7 14.5

20.1 -2 5.8 14.3

20.2 -0.7 5.8 14.4

20.6 0.8 5.8 14.7

21 3.7 5.9 15.1

21.4 6.8 6 15.5

21.7 7.2 6 15.6

22 6.9 6.1 15.9

22.4 6.3 6.2 16.2

22.7 5.7 6.3 16.4

23 6.2 6.4 16.7

23.5 6.7 6.5 17

23.9 7.1 6.6 17.4

24.4 7.8 6.7 17.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 -1.1

16.7 0.3

16.5 -2

16.6 -1.2

16.8 -0.2

17.1 2.3

17.4 5.1

17.5 5.4

17.6 5

17.9 4.4

18 3.8

18.2 4.3

18.5 4.9

18.8 5.2

19.1 5.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

64.5 53.2

64.1 52.9

63.4 52.2

63.8 52.3

64.8 53

66.3 53.9

67.5 54.7

68.1 54.9

69 55.4

70 55.9

70.8 56.3

71.6 56.7

72.7 57.4

73.8 58

75 58.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.4 3.4

48.7 3

49 2.7

49.3 2.8

49.5 2.3

49.8 2.3

50.1 2.2

50.4 2.2

50.6 2.2

50.9 2.2

51.2 2.2

51.5 2.2

51.8 2.4

52.2 2.6

52.6 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

117.6 -5.9

117.1 -4.4

117 -4.7

117.2 -2.7

117.5 -0.1

117.9 0.6

118.5 1.2

119.1 1.6

119.9 2.1

120.8 2.5

121.8 2.8

122.8 3.1

124.1 3.5

125.4 3.8

126.6 4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.7 -6.4

2.6 -8.4

2.5 -11

2.5 -11.4

2.5 -8.6

2.5 -4.2

2.5 -1

2.5 0.7

2.6 2.5

2.6 3.1

2.6 4

2.7 4.7

2.7 5

2.7 4.9

2.7 4.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

114.9 -5.9

114.5 -4.3

114.5 -4.6

114.7 -2.5

115 0.1

115.4 0.7

115.9 1.3

116.6 1.6

117.4 2.1

118.2 2.5

119.1 2.8

120.1 3

121.5 3.5

122.7 3.8

123.9 4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.9 -20.8

11.6 -17.3

11.3 -15.9

11.1 -11.6

10.8 -9.2

10.6 -8.6

10.6 -6.1

10.6 -4.3

10.7 -0.7

10.9 2.7

11.1 4.6

11.3 7.2

11.6 8.7

11.9 9.4

12.1 9.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23 -1.4

22.8 -1.3

22.8 -3.6

22.9 -1.8

23 0

23 0.9

23.1 1.3

23.2 1.3

23.2 0.9

23.2 0.8

23.4 1.1

23.5 1.4

23.7 2.3

23.9 3

24.1 3.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 18.3 1.4

3.3 18.2 1.4

3.3 18.1 1.4

3.3 18.2 1.4

3.3 18.2 1.4

3.3 18.3 1.4

3.3 18.3 1.4

3.3 18.3 1.4

3.4 18.2 1.4

3.4 18.2 1.5

3.5 18.3 1.5

3.5 18.4 1.5

3.6 18.5 1.5

3.6 18.6 1.6

3.7 18.7 1.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -7.3

1.7 -6.6

1.6 -5.3

1.6 -5

1.6 -4.9

1.6 -3.5

1.6 0.1

1.7 3.5

1.7 6

1.7 5.6

1.7 3.5

1.7 2.2

1.7 1.7

1.7 1.8

1.7 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 -0.7

7.3 1.7

7.4 2.6

7.4 1.2

7.4 1.8

7.4 1.3

7.4 0.7

7.5 0.7

7.5 1.2

7.6 1.9

7.6 2.5

7.7 2.9

7.8 3.3

7.9 3.7

7.9 3.7

13.2 -13.6

13.1 -12.4

13.1 -14.6

13.2 -12.3

13.3 0.3

13.4 2.3

13.8 4.9

14.1 7.3

14.4 9

14.7 9.6

15 9

15.3 8.7

15.7 8.5

16 8.4

16.2 8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 2.7

17.1 4.1

17.2 3.3

17.5 4.3

17.7 5.1

17.9 5.1

18.1 5.1

18.2 4

18.3 3.3

18.4 2.7

18.5 2.3

18.5 1.8

18.6 1.6

18.7 1.5

18.8 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -6.4

21.2 -4.5

21.2 -3.5

21.2 -0.3

21.3 0.3

21.4 0.7

21.3 0.5

21.4 0.6

21.5 0.8

21.6 1.1

21.7 1.9

21.9 2.3

22 2.5

22.2 2.8

22.4 2.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -5.1

5.9 -2.8

5.9 -0.7

6 1

6 1.5

6 2.2

6 1.4

6 1.3

6.1 1.4

6.1 1.2

6.1 1.3

6.1 0.9

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -0.5

0.7 8.7

0.7 2.8

0.7 -1

0.8 8.9

0.7 5

0.7 2

0.7 0.5

0.7 -7.2

0.7 -2.6

0.7 -0.1

0.7 0.7

0.7 1.1

0.7 1.4

0.7 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 -1.3

13.2 -0.6

13.2 -0.9

13.2 0.5

13.2 0.7

13.3 0.8

13.3 0.6

13.3 0.7

13.3 0.6

13.3 0.6

13.4 0.7

13.4 0.8

13.5 1.6

13.6 2.2

13.8 3.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8874.5

8875.6

8898.8

8930.8

9007.7

9080.6

9177.1

9255.5

9370.5

9488

9608.2

9736.1

9890.4

10031.6

10164.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

316.3 0.3

316.4 0.2

316.6 0.2

316.9 0.1

317.1 0.3

317.4 0.3

317.7 0.4

318.2 0.4

318.8 0.5

319.5 0.7

320.5 0.9

321.5 1.1

322.7 1.2

324.3 1.5

326.1 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

152.7 0.7

153.2 1.6

153.8 0.2

154.6 1.5

155.5 1.8

156.4 2.1

157.2 2.2

158 2.2

158.7 2.1

159.5 2

160.2 1.9

161 1.9

161.8 2

162.7 2

163.6 2.1

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.9

11.3

11.5

11.2

11.3

11.2

10.9

10.7

10.4

10.3

10

9.9

9.6

9.3

9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

583 439 144

673 519 153

1024 674 350

1392 927 465

1644 1145 499

1976 1419 557

2301 1685 616

2608 1982 626

2945 2277 667

3239 2506 733

3506 2693 812

3731 2824 907

4028 3006 1021

4301 3141 1160

4469 3192 1276

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.6 4.9 4 7.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9

14.8 20.8 4.9 9.9

16.5 10.9 5.5 11

18.7 13.4 5.9 12.8

19.8 6.3 6 13.8

20.5 3.3 5.9 14.6

20.3 -1.1 5.8 14.5

20.8 2.7 5.9 14.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 3.5

11.6 3.8

13.7 17.6

14.7 7.7

16.3 10.4

16.9 3.6

16.9 -0.1

16.7 -0.9

17 1.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

42 40.6

43 40.7

50.1 46.3

53.8 48.2

59.9 52.2

63.2 53.7

65 53.4

64 52.8

65.6 53.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 1.6

38.7 8.6

40.4 4.5

42.6 5.4

43.3 1.7

45.3 4.7

47.1 3.8

48.5 3

49.7 2.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

110.8 4.1

114.2 3

120.6 5.7

128.3 6.3

135 5.2

132 -2.3

124.6 -5.6

118.1 -5.2

117.8 -0.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -3.4

2.9 -5.3

3.1 5.9

3.2 3

3.3 3.6

3.3 -1.3

2.9 -10.8

2.7 -8.2

2.5 -6.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

107.7 4.3

111.2 3.3

117.5 5.7

125.1 6.4

131.7 5.3

128.7 -2.3

121.6 -5.5

115.4 -5.2

115.3 -0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 1.1

14.6 -0.8

16.8 14.8

20.3 21.3

23.9 17.6

19.7 -17.8

14.7 -25.5

11.8 -19.4

10.8 -8.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 2.1

22.4 -1.3

23 2.4

24.3 5.6

24.5 0.9

24.2 -1.3

23.5 -2.8

23 -2.2

23 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 17.6 1.9

3.1 17.7 1.7

3.3 18 1.7

3.4 19.1 1.8

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.4 18.6 1.5

3.3 18.3 1.4

3.3 18.3 1.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -0.9

1.7 -3.3

1.8 7.3

1.8 0

1.9 3.2

1.8 -5

1.8 -1.6

1.7 -5.6

1.6 -3.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 4.6

6.7 2.6

7.1 5.8

7.7 9.3

8.2 5.7

8.2 0.1

7.4 -9.1

7.3 -0.9

7.4 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 7.1

16.1 19.8

17.4 8.1

16.3 -6.5

16.8 3.2

15.8 -6.2

15.3 -3.2

13.6 -10.7

13.4 -1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 5.1

13.2 3.3

13.4 1.9

14.5 7.9

15.4 6

16.2 5.5

16.5 1.7

17 2.9

17.8 4.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 5.3

18.5 1.2

20 8.2

21.5 7.4

21.9 1.8

23 4.9

22.5 -2.3

21.2 -5.4

21.3 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 7

5.5 -0.3

5.4 -1.4

5.7 5.2

5.8 1.9

5.9 3.2

6.1 2.7

5.9 -3.6

6 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 -3.8

0.7 2.7

0.7 3.7

11.3 7.2

11.8 4.5

11.9 0.9

12.3 2.9

12.7 3.4

13.3 4.6

13.3 0.2

13.2 -1.2

13.2 0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

7462.7

7949.9

8553.4

9400.9

9918.3

9614.8

9339.5

8925.6

9049

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

276.1 4

285.7 3.5

296 3.6

305.9 3.4

311.6 1.8

313.8 0.7

315.5 0.5

316.4 0.3

317.3 0.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

129.2 5

133 2.9

137.6 3.5

144.9 5.2

152.4 5.2

153.2 0.5

152.1 -0.7

153 0.6

155.9 1.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

4.9

4.2

3.4

3.1

4.2

6.7

11

11.2

7078 4279 2799

5334 3403 1932

6101 4018 2083

5724 4038 1686

4256 3050 1206

1959 1160 800

988 688 300

800 586 214

1828 1294 534

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.2 6.5 6.1 16

23.7 7 6.5 17.2

25.7 8.3 7 18.7

27.5 7.1 7.4 20.1

29.6 7.7 8 21.7

32 7.9 8.5 23.5

34.4 7.6 9 25.4

37.2 8.1 9.6 27.5

40.4 8.6 10.3 30.1

44 9 11 33

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 4.6

18.7 5.1

19.8 6.3

20.9 5.3

22.1 5.9

23.4 5.9

24.7 5.5

26.2 6

27.9 6.5

29.8 7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

69.4 55.6

73.3 57.6

77.6 60

81.3 61.7

85.5 63.8

89.9 65.8

94.1 67.6

99 69.7

104.6 72.2

111 75.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 2.2

52 2.5

53.6 3

55.3 3.2

57.2 3.3

59.1 3.4

61.1 3.4

63.2 3.4

65.3 3.4

67.6 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

120.4 2.2

124.7 3.6

129.6 3.9

134 3.4

138.6 3.4

142.9 3.1

147.2 3

151.9 3.2

156.6 3.1

161.4 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 2.6

2.7 4.8

2.8 3.8

2.9 2.1

2.9 0.9

2.9 0.2

2.9 0.2

2.9 0.4

2.9 0.2

2.9 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

117.8 2.2

122.1 3.6

126.8 3.9

131.2 3.4

135.7 3.5

140 3.2

144.3 3

149 3.3

153.7 3.1

158.5 3.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 0.5

11.8 8.7

12.7 8.1

13.5 6.2

14.3 5.7

15 5

15.7 4.6

16.5 5

17.1 3.9

17.7 3.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 1

23.8 2.5

24.9 4.6

25.9 4

26.7 3.1

27.2 2

27.6 1.5

28.2 2

28.9 2.4

29.6 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 18.3 1.4

3.6 18.6 1.6

3.9 19.2 1.7

4 19.9 1.7

4.1 20.5 1.8

4.3 20.8 1.9

4.4 21 2

4.5 21.4 2

4.7 21.8 2.1

4.9 22.4 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 4.6

1.7 1.9

1.8 2.8

1.8 3.3

1.9 3.2

1.9 3.5

2 3.4

2.1 3.3

2.1 3.1

2.2 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 1.6

7.8 3.4

8 2.3

8.1 1.3

8.3 2.2

8.5 2.1

8.6 1.9

8.8 1.9

9 2.3

9.2 2.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 8.7

15.8 8.4

16.7 5.4

17.5 5.2

18.8 7.3

20.2 7.2

21.6 7.3

23.4 8

25 7

26.6 6.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 3.1

18.6 1.7

19.2 2.8

19.8 3.6

20.6 3.9

21.3 3.5

22 3.2

22.7 3.1

23.4 2.9

24 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 1.1

22.1 2.6

22.6 2.3

23 1.5

23.2 1

23.5 1.3

23.8 1.2

24.1 1.1

24.4 1.4

24.8 1.6

6.1 1.3

6.1 0.7

6.2 1.5

6.3 2.1

6.4 1.6

6.5 1.6

6.6 1.6

6.7 1.3

6.8 1.1

6.9 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -2.5

0.7 1.2

0.7 1.5

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.9

0.8 2

0.8 2.1

0.8 2.1

0.8 2.1

0.9 7.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 0.6

13.6 1.9

14.1 3.8

14.5 2.5

14.8 2.4

15.1 2.3

15.5 2.3

15.8 2.3

16.2 2.3

16.6 2.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9430.6

9955.6

10445

10911.1

11493.1

12068.3

12663.4

13338.5

14044.9

14782.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

319.2 0.6

323.6 1.4

330.6 2.2

338.2 2.3

346.4 2.4

355.8 2.7

365.5 2.7

375.4 2.7

385.7 2.7

396.2 2.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

159.1 2

162.3 2

166 2.3

169.9 2.3

174.2 2.5

178.7 2.6

183.4 2.6

188.2 2.6

193.1 2.6

198 2.6

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.3

9.4

8.5

8

7.7

7.2

6.7

6.2

5.7

5.2

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3074 2365 710

4132 3041 1091

4655 3291 1364

4869 3370 1499

5339 3448 1891

5627 3515 2112

5807 3539 2268

6060 3597 2462

6351 3640 2711

6663 3674 2989

Continued 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

47.9 9 11.7 36.3

52.3 9.1 12.4 39.9

56.6 8.3 13.1 43.5

61.2 8.1 13.9 47.2

65.9 7.8 14.8 51.1

71 7.7 15.7 55.3

76.4 7.6 16.6 59.8

82.1 7.4 17.6 64.4

88 7.3 18.7 69.3

94.3 7.1 19.8 74.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.9 7

34.1 7.1

36.3 6.4

38.5 6.1

40.8 5.8

43.1 5.7

45.5 5.6

48 5.4

50.5 5.2

53.1 5.1

117.7 78.3

124.9 81.7

131.8 84.6

138.6 87.4

145.4 90

152.5 92.7

159.8 95.3

167.3 97.9

174.9 100.4

182.6 102.8

70 3.5

72.4 3.4

74.8 3.3

77.2 3.2

79.7 3.2

82.2 3.2

84.9 3.3

87.6 3.2

90.4 3.1

93.2 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

165.9 2.8

170.5 2.7

175 2.6

179.7 2.7

184.7 2.8

189.8 2.8

195.1 2.8

200.6 2.8

206.3 2.8

211.9 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -0.8

2.8 -1.6

2.8 -1.5

2.8 -1.3

2.7 -1.2

2.7 -0.7

2.7 -0.7

2.7 -0.7

2.6 -0.6

2.6 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

163 2.9

167.6 2.8

172.2 2.7

176.9 2.8

181.9 2.8

187.1 2.8

192.4 2.8

197.9 2.9

203.6 2.9

209.3 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 3.6

19 3.3

19.5 3.1

20.2 3.1

20.9 3.6

21.7 3.8

22.4 3.3

23 3

23.7 2.9

24.4 3.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.3 2.4

31 2.3

31.7 2.3

32.4 2.3

33.2 2.2

33.9 2.2

34.6 2.2

35.4 2.3

36.2 2.3

37 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.1 22.9 2.2

5.3 23.3 2.3

5.5 23.8 2.4

5.6 24.3 2.5

5.8 24.8 2.5

5.9 25.2 2.6

6.1 25.7 2.7

6.2 26.3 2.7

6.3 26.9 2.8

6.4 27.4 2.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 3.2

2.4 3.2

2.4 3.2

2.5 3.3

2.6 3.2

2.7 3.3

2.8 3.5

2.9 3.7

3 3.7

3.1 3.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 2.5

9.7 2.2

9.8 1.8

10 1.8

10.2 2.1

10.4 2

10.6 1.9

10.8 1.9

11.1 2.1

11.3 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28 5.4

29.5 5.1

30.9 5

32.5 5.1

34.3 5.4

36.1 5.2

38 5.3

40.1 5.5

42.2 5.3

44.2 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 2.5

25.2 2.4

25.8 2.2

26.4 2.3

26.9 2.1

27.5 2

28.1 2.2

28.7 2.2

29.4 2.3

30 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 1.7

25.6 1.7

26 1.6

26.4 1.7

26.9 1.6

27.3 1.6

27.7 1.7

28.2 1.7

28.7 1.9

29.2 1.8

7 2

7.2 2.5

7.4 2.4

7.5 2.3

7.7 2.1

7.9 2.3

8.1 2.5

8.3 2.5

8.5 2.5

8.7 2.5

0.9 -1.3

0.9 1.8

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

1 1.9

1 1.9

1 1.9

1 4.6

17 2.3

17.3 2.2

17.7 2.1

18 2

18.4 2.1

18.8 2

19.2 2

19.5 2

19.9 2

20.3 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

15538.1

16296.4

17032

17793.4

18618.8

19465.2

20328.5

21219.1

22139.7

23093.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

407 2.7

418.2 2.7

429.5 2.7

441.1 2.7

453 2.7

465.2 2.7

477.7 2.7

490.3 2.6

503.2 2.6

516.3 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

203 2.5

208 2.5

213.2 2.5

218.6 2.5

224.3 2.6

230.4 2.8

236.9 2.8

243.5 2.8

250.2 2.8

257.2 2.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5.1

5.1

6914 3687 3227

7035 3700 3335

7106 3738 3368

7144 3773 3372

7253 3857 3396

7319 3897 3421

7312 3888 3424

7270 3853 3417

7262 3849 3413

7321 3907 3414

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

100.9 7 20.9 80

108.1 7.1 22.1 86

115.7 7 23.3 92.4

123.8 7 24.6 99.2

132.6 7 26 106.6

142 7.1 27.4 114.5

152.1 7.1 29.1 123

163.4 7.4 30.9 132.5

175.3 7.3 32.8 142.6

55.7 5

58.5 5.1

61.5 5

64.5 5

67.8 5

71.2 5.1

74.9 5.1

78.9 5.4

83.1 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

190.5 105.2

198.9 107.7

207.4 110.2

216.3 112.7

225.7 115.4

235.7 118.3

246.2 121.2

257.8 124.6

269.8 127.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

96.1 3.1

99.1 3.2

102.1 3

105.2 3

108.4 3

111.7 3.1

115.2 3.1

118.7 3.1

122.3 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

217.1 2.5

222.3 2.4

227.7 2.4

233.3 2.5

239.1 2.5

245.1 2.5

252.1 2.8

259.4 2.9

267.4 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -0.4

2.6 -0.7

2.6 -0.6

2.6 -0.3

2.6 -0.1

2.6 0

2.6 0.2

2.6 0.4

2.6 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

214.5 2.5

219.7 2.4

225.1 2.5

230.7 2.5

236.5 2.5

242.5 2.6

249.5 2.9

256.9 2.9

264.8 3.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 2.8

25.7 2.4

26.3 2.2

26.8 2.1

27.4 2

28 2.2

28.6 2.4

29.3 2.4

30 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.8 2

38.5 2

39.2 1.9

39.9 1.8

40.6 1.7

41.3 1.7

42.1 1.9

42.9 1.8

43.6 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.5 28 2.9

6.6 28.6 3

6.7 29.2 3

6.8 29.8 3

6.8 30.4 3

6.9 31 3

7 31.6 3

7 32.3 3

7.1 32.9 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 3.6

3.3 3.5

3.4 3.5

3.5 3.5

3.7 3.4

3.8 3.4

3.9 3.6

4.1 3.6

4.2 3.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 2

11.8 1.8

12 1.9

12.2 2.1

12.5 2.1

12.7 2

13 2.2

13.3 2.1

13.6 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.8 3.8

47.6 3.8

49.6 4.1

51.8 4.5

54.1 4.5

56.7 4.8

59.7 5.3

63.1 5.7

67.1 6.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 2.2

31.4 2.2

32 2.1

32.7 2.1

33.3 2

34 1.9

34.8 2.2

35.5 2.2

36.2 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 1.8

30.2 1.6

30.8 1.7

31.2 1.5

31.8 1.7

32.2 1.5

32.8 1.9

33.5 1.9

34 1.7

8.9 2.4

9.1 2.4

9.3 2.2

9.5 2.3

9.7 2.2

10 2.3

10.2 2.5

10.5 2.5

10.7 2.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1 -0.7

1.1 1.9

1.1 1.9

1.1 1.9

1.1 1.9

1.1 1.9

1.2 1.9

1.2 1.9

1.2 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 1.8

21.1 1.8

21.5 1.9

21.9 1.9

22.3 1.9

22.7 1.9

23.2 2

23.6 1.9

24.1 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

24026.2

24975

25983.9

27051.3

28163.5

29333.1

30561.8

31857.1

33232.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

529.6 2.6

543.5 2.6

557.8 2.6

572.3 2.6

587.2 2.6

602.4 2.6

617.9 2.6

633.7 2.6

649.8 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

264.2 2.7

271.4 2.7

278.8 2.7

286.3 2.7

294 2.7

301.8 2.7

309.8 2.7

318 2.6

326.4 2.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

86

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

7275 3928 3347

7207 3895 3312

7189 3919 3269

7228 3978 3250

7235 4031 3204

7220 4075 3145

7230 4093 3137

7194 4105 3090

7175 4128 3047


Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 329,628 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 140,030 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,410 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees • Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees • City of Ocala – 979 employees Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying growth and decline in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.2 percent annually, the second highest growth in the state. Personal income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 25.0. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level, at 36.9 each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth in the state at 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,262.25 (Mill), the lowest in the state. Employment growth is expected to decline at an average rate of -0.1 percent annually. Unemployment for the metro will be at an annual average of 12.7 percent, the highest unemployment rate in Florida. Education and Health Services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth of 3.0 percent, followed by the Financial sector, which will grow at 1.1 percent annually, and the Leisure sector at 0.7 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Manufacturing sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.5 percent.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Gambling expansion could benefit Marion house industry • Florida Legislature passed a bill to reduce the tax in slot machines from 50% to 35%. The horse industry benefits since tax revenues increase race purses and breeder incentives to keep their horses in Florida. • The bill also allows the creation of a nonprofit organization focused on holding races in Ocala and attracting horse owners outside Marion County to Ocala. • Currently, Marion County’s equine industry has an estimated $1 billion economic impact. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 9, 2009 Munroe begins OR expansion

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


Oca l a

• Munroe Regional Medical Center started the process of expansion that will add three new operating rooms. The expansion will last about eight months and will cost more than $7 million, including $4.5 million for equipment in fully digital operating rooms. • High demand for surgeries makes the OR one of the primary revenue units at Munroe. The expansion will increase the total number of operating rooms to 15. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 21, 2009 Crist clears way for west side enterprise zone • The signed bill allows the city of Ocala to apply for an Enterprise Zone designation from the office of Tourism, Trade, and Economic Development, which will help attract business to the economically depressed area. • Businesses located in the five-square-mile zone are eligible for sales tax exemptions, tax credits for structures they build, tax credits for infrastructure, and tax credits for people they hire from within the district. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 22, 2009 GPS pins down bus drivers speeding • Six months ago, the Marion County School District purchased Global Positioning Systems for $377,000 to be placed in 460 buses with an annual cost of $30,000. • The devices will save the School District $50,000 annually in the reduction of fuel consumption due to bus idling. • GPS devices are linked to computers and oversee driver’s speed, location, route, and exact stop times. Using this data to oversee drivers, speeding has been reduced by 76%. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 25, 2009

88

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

Marion’s new Emergency Operations Center is ready for action • The new 15,000-square-foot, $4.8 million facility can withstand winds upward of 160 miles per hour. Before this facility, when a storm headed to Marion, a 30-by-60 room inside the sheriff’s operations headquarters had to be converted into a command center. • There are 150 individual work stations each equipped with a phone, field operations guide, and emergency response plan, as well as Internet hookups and in-house servers. Every municipality in Marion County has its own space. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 31, 2009


Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

180.0

(Thousands)

160.0

120.0 100.0 80.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0 10000.0 5000.0 0.0

1.2

Ocala Payroll Employment

60.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 20000.0

1

140.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Ocala Payroll Employment

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

10.1 -1 3.5 6.6

10 -1.4 3.5 6.5

10.1 -0.4 3.5 6.6

10.2 0.6 3.6 6.6

10.2 1.1 3.6 6.7

10.4 3.2 3.6 6.8

10.5 3.8 3.6 6.8

10.6 4.1 3.7 6.9

10.7 4.5 3.7 7

10.9 4.9 3.7 7.1

11 5.5 3.8 7.2

11.2 6.1 3.8 7.4

11.4 6.6 3.9 7.5

11.6 6.8 4 7.7

11.8 6.8 4 7.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -0.5

8.3 0.2

8.3 -0.3

8.3 0

8.4 0

8.4 1.7

8.5 2

8.5 2.3

8.6 2.7

8.7 3.1

8.8 3.7

8.9 4.3

9 4.8

9.1 5

9.2 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

30.2 25

29.8 24.6

29.8 24.5

29.9 24.5

30 24.5

30.2 24.6

30.4 24.6

30.6 24.7

30.9 24.8

31.2 25

31.6 25.1

31.9 25.3

32.3 25.5

32.7 25.7

33.1 25.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 3.2

35.8 2.7

36 2.3

36.2 2.5

36.4 2.1

36.6 2.2

36.8 2.1

37 2.1

37.1 2

37.3 2

37.5 2

37.7 2

38 2.2

38.2 2.4

38.5 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

98.1 -5.2

97.6 -4.5

97.4 -3.6

97.4 -2.6

97.6 -0.6

97.8 0.2

98 0.7

98.4 1

99 1.5

99.6 1.9

100.3 2.3

101 2.6

102 3

102.8 3.2

103.6 3.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7 -17.9

6.7 -17.6

6.5 -15.5

6.4 -12.1

6.4 -8.9

6.4 -4.7

6.4 -1.5

6.4 0.1

6.5 1.8

6.6 2.8

6.6 3.7

6.7 4.3

6.8 4.5

6.8 4.2

6.9 3.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

91.1 -4.1

90.9 -3.4

90.9 -2.6

91 -1.8

91.2 0.1

91.4 0.5

91.6 0.8

92 1.1

92.5 1.4

93.1 1.8

93.7 2.2

94.3 2.5

95.2 2.9

96 3.2

96.7 3.3

8.7 -12.6

8.5 -9.4

8.3 -10

8.1 -11

7.9 -9.1

7.8 -8.5

7.8 -6.1

7.8 -4

7.9 -0.3

8 3.2

8.2 5.3

8.4 7.6

8.6 8.7

8.7 9.1

8.9 8.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 -6.5

21.5 -5

21.5 -2.2

21.6 -0.4

21.7 1

21.7 1.3

21.8 1.3

21.8 1

21.8 0.6

21.9 0.6

22.1 1.3

22.2 1.9

22.4 2.7

22.6 3.3

22.8 3.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.1 14.7 2.7

4.1 14.7 2.7

4.1 14.7 2.7

4.1 14.8 2.7

4.1 14.9 2.7

4.1 15 2.7

4.1 15 2.7

4.1 15 2.7

4.1 14.9 2.8

4.2 14.9 2.8

4.2 14.9 2.9

4.3 15 2.9

4.3 15.1 3

4.4 15.2 3

4.5 15.2 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -6.1

1.8 -5.1

1.7 -3.1

1.7 -4.2

1.7 -4.8

1.7 -3

1.7 -0.5

1.8 3.2

1.8 6.3

1.8 6.1

1.8 4

1.8 1.8

1.8 0.7

1.8 0.8

1.8 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -1

5.9 -0.5

5.9 1.6

6 0.6

6 1.3

6 1.2

6 0.9

6 0.9

6 1.3

6.1 1.9

6.1 2.2

6.1 2.2

6.2 2.3

6.2 2.4

6.3 2.3

6.7 -17.3

6.6 -18.1

6.6 -17.9

6.6 -14.4

6.6 -2.3

6.7 0.1

6.8 3.1

7 6.3

7.1 8.4

7.3 9.1

7.4 8

7.5 7.2

7.7 7.1

7.8 7.1

7.9 6.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 3.8

14.5 3.2

14.6 4

14.8 3.7

15 4.4

15.2 4.6

15.2 4.5

15.3 3.3

15.4 2.7

15.5 2.3

15.6 2.1

15.6 1.8

15.7 1.6

15.7 1.4

15.8 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 -2.4

10.2 -1

10.2 0

10.3 0.4

10.3 1

10.3 1.2

10.3 0.7

10.3 0.7

10.4 0.8

10.4 1.1

10.5 1.8

10.6 2.2

10.6 2.3

10.7 2.5

10.8 2.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -0.6

4.3 -0.7

4.3 -0.3

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.9

4.3 1.6

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.3

4.3 0.3

4.3 0.2

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.2

4.4 0.4

4.4 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -3.3

0.7 -0.5

0.7 -0.1

0.7 -1.6

0.8 6.3

0.7 2.9

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.3

0.7 -7.5

0.7 -2.9

0.7 -0.4

0.7 0.2

0.7 0.6

0.7 0.9

0.7 1.2

17 1.3

17 0.5

17 -0.6

17 0

17 0.1

17 0.1

17 -0.1

17 0.1

17 0.1

17 0.3

17.1 0.6

17.1 0.7

17.2 1.4

17.3 1.8

17.5 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

5943.3

5929.1

5950.2

5985

6040.2

6088.1

6148.5

6206.2

6281.4

6356.5

6433.8

6512

6602.7

6684.2

6762

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

335 1.6

336.7 1.7

338.5 1.8

340.2 1.9

341.8 2

343.3 1.9

344.6 1.8

345.8 1.7

347 1.5

348.2 1.4

349.6 1.4

351.2 1.5

352.9 1.7

354.6 1.8

356.4 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

145.4 4.4

145.8 3.7

146.2 1.2

146.8 1.6

147.3 1.3

147.7 1.3

148 1.2

148.3 1

148.5 0.8

148.8 0.7

149 0.7

149.3 0.7

149.6 0.8

150 0.8

150.4 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

13

13.4

13.6

13.8

13.9

13.8

13.4

13.1

12.8

12.6

12.3

11.9

11.6

11.3

11

851 851 0

1005 1005 0

1386 1345 41

1870 1805 64

2247 2174 73

2695 2613 83

3124 3031 93

3562 3469 93

3990 3895 95

4313 4216 97

4555 4454 101

4729 4618 111

4968 4849 119

5150 5012 139

5216 5063 153

*Quarterly at an annual rate

90

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1

7.5 10.9 2.9 4.6

8.3 11.6 3.2 5.1

9.3 11.9 3.6 5.7

9.8 5.4 3.6 6.2

10.1 3.2 3.6 6.5

10.1 -0.6 3.5 6.6

10.3 2.2 3.6 6.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 0.8

6.4 4.8

6.9 8.1

7.5 8.4

8.1 8.9

8.4 2.8

8.3 -0.1

8.3 -0.2

8.4 0.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

23.1 22.3

24 22.7

25.6 23.6

27.5 24.6

29.6 25.8

30.3 25.7

30.7 25.3

30 24.8

30.1 24.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.8 4.4

29.4 5.9

30.2 2.7

31.3 3.7

33.6 7.4

34 1

34.7 2.3

35.7 2.8

36.5 2.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

87 0.4

89.9 3.4

95.9 6.6

101.5 5.9

106.1 4.5

106.8 0.6

103 -3.5

98.3 -4.6

97.7 -0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 -5.5

9.2 -1

9.6 4

9.9 3.6

9.9 -0.7

9.6 -3

8.3 -13.2

6.9 -17.3

6.4 -7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

77.7 1.1

80.7 3.9

86.3 6.9

91.6 6.1

96.3 5.1

97.2 1

94.7 -2.6

91.4 -3.5

91.3 -0.1

7.3 4.3

8.5 15.3

9.9 16.7

10.7 8.8

12.6 17

11.6 -7.6

9.7 -16.1

8.6 -11.3

7.9 -8.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 -0.7

20.9 2

21.7 3.6

22.9 5.6

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.8

22.7 -4.3

21.5 -5.3

21.7 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 14.8 2.6

3.3 15.1 2.5

3.6 15.6 2.5

3.9 16.3 2.7

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.7 2.9

4.1 14.8 2.7

4.1 14.9 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -4.5

2.2 -5.1

2.2 1.2

2.2 -2.3

2.1 -1.9

2 -7.2

1.9 -3.9

1.8 -6.1

1.7 -3.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4 1.1

4.3 9.2

4.9 12.5

5.4 11.1

5.7 6

6 3.6

5.9 -0.2

5.9 -0.6

6 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 0.5

7.6 4.8

8.2 7.5

8.9 9.5

9.3 4.1

8.5 -8.2

8.2 -4.4

6.9 -15.2

6.7 -3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 5.3

10.5 8.5

11.1 6

12 7.6

12.7 5.8

13.3 4.8

13.9 4.7

14.4 3.7

15.1 4.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 0.3

7.7 0.9

8.7 13.1

9.2 6.3

9.7 4.8

10.6 9.5

10.4 -2.1

10.2 -1.6

10.3 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 3.6

3.6 -1.6

3.8 7.7

4 5.2

4.1 1.9

4.3 4.7

4.3 0

4.3 -0.3

4.3 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 2.3

0.7 -2.3

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 1.1

0.7 -0.9

0.7 1.9

14.7 0.7

14.7 0.4

15.1 2.4

15.4 2.3

16 3.6

16.5 2.9

16.9 2.6

17 0.6

17 0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

4765.9

5166.5

5513.2

6067.3

6450.8

6493.9

6441.2

6023.9

6065.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

272.2 2.6

280.5 3

291.2 3.8

303 4.1

314.9 3.9

324.5 3

330.3 1.8

336 1.7

342.5 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

112.2 2.3

114.6 2.2

119.1 3.9

125.9 5.7

132.4 5.2

136.7 3.2

140.6 2.9

145.5 3.4

147.4 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

5.3

4.6

3.8

3.4

4.5

7.6

13

13.7

5741 5258 484

6723 5985 738

5087 4998 88

7169 6614 555

7218 6862 357

3109 2795 314

1275 1255 20

936 913 23

2484 2406 78

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

10.8 4.7 3.7 7.1

11.5 6.6 3.9 7.6

12.2 6.4 4.2 8.1

13.1 6.8 4.4 8.7

14 7.1 4.7 9.3

15 6.8 4.9 10.1

16 6.9 5.2 10.8

17.1 7 5.5 11.6

18.3 7.2 5.8 12.6

19.6 6.9 6.1 13.5

8.7 3

9.1 4.8

9.5 4.4

9.9 4.7

10.4 5.1

10.9 4.8

11.4 4.8

12 4.9

12.6 5.2

13.2 4.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31 24.9

32.5 25.6

33.9 26.2

35.4 26.8

37 27.5

38.6 28.1

40.2 28.8

42 29.4

44 30.2

45.9 31

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.2 2

38.1 2.3

39.2 2.8

40.3 2.9

41.6 3.1

42.9 3.2

44.3 3.3

45.8 3.3

47.3 3.3

48.9 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

99.3 1.7

102.4 3

105.7 3.3

108.6 2.7

111.2 2.5

113.7 2.2

116 2.1

118.7 2.3

121.3 2.2

123.9 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 2.1

6.8 4.2

7 3.1

7.1 1.2

7.1 0.1

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.4

7.1 -0.2

7 -0.3

7 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

92.8 1.7

95.6 3

98.7 3.3

101.5 2.8

104.1 2.6

106.6 2.4

109 2.2

111.7 2.5

114.3 2.3

116.9 2.3

8 1

8.6 8.6

9.4 8.2

10 7

10.5 4.9

10.9 3.9

11.3 3.6

11.8 4.1

12.1 2.9

12.4 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.9 0.9

22.5 2.8

23.4 4

24.1 3

24.7 2.3

25 1.4

25.3 1

25.7 1.7

26.2 2

26.7 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 14.9 2.8

4.4 15.1 3

4.6 15.6 3.2

4.7 16 3.3

4.8 16.4 3.5

4.9 16.5 3.6

5 16.6 3.7

5.1 16.8 3.8

5.2 17 4

5.4 17.3 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 4.9

1.8 1.1

1.8 1.7

1.9 2.1

1.9 1.9

2 2.1

2 2.1

2 1.9

2.1 1.8

2.1 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 1.6

6.2 2.3

6.3 1.8

6.4 0.9

6.5 1.3

6.5 1.5

6.6 1.3

6.7 1.3

6.8 1.6

7 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 7.9

7.7 7.1

8 4.3

8.4 4.5

8.9 6.4

9.5 6.7

10.2 6.7

10.9 7.3

11.6 6.4

12.3 5.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 2.6

15.7 1.5

16 2

16.4 2.8

17 3.3

17.5 3.3

18.1 2.9

18.6 2.8

19 2.5

19.5 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 1.1

10.7 2.4

10.8 1.8

11 1

11 0.5

11.1 0.8

11.2 0.8

11.3 0.6

11.4 0.9

11.5 1.2

4.3 0.3

4.4 0.4

4.4 1

4.5 1.5

4.5 1.2

4.6 1.1

4.6 1

4.6 0.7

4.7 0.5

4.7 1.3

0.7 -2.7

0.7 0.7

0.7 1

0.7 1.1

0.7 1.4

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.6

0.8 1.6

0.8 1.6

0.8 9.1

17 0.2

17.3 1.6

17.8 3

18.1 1.8

18.4 1.6

18.7 1.6

19 1.6

19.3 1.6

19.6 1.5

19.9 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6319.4

6640.2

6944.3

7237.6

7558.6

7884.4

8209.2

8572.3

8945.9

9328.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

347.7 1.5

353.8 1.8

361.2 2.1

369.4 2.3

378.2 2.4

387.6 2.5

397.3 2.5

407.3 2.5

416.9 2.4

426.5 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

148.6 0.8

149.8 0.8

151.6 1.2

153.8 1.4

156.3 1.6

158.9 1.7

161.6 1.7

164.3 1.7

167.2 1.7

170.1 1.8

Unemployment Rate (%)

12.7

11.4

10.4

9.8

9.4

8.9

8.3

7.7

7.1

6.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4105 4008 96

5016 4885 130

5248 5095 153

5247 5090 157

5271 5080 191

5305 5107 198

5249 5043 206

5207 4980 227

5267 5014 253

5301 5025 276

Continued 92

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.8 6.3 6.4 14.4

22.1 6.2 6.7 15.4

23.5 6.1 7.1 16.4

24.8 5.8 7.5 17.4

26.3 6 7.9 18.5

27.9 6 8.3 19.7

29.5 5.7 8.7 20.8

31.3 5.9 9.1 22.1

33.1 5.8 9.6 23.4

35 5.8 10.1 24.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.8 4.5

14.4 4.3

15 4.1

15.6 3.9

16.2 4.1

16.9 4.1

17.5 3.8

18.2 3.9

18.9 3.8

19.6 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

47.8 31.7

49.7 32.4

51.6 33

53.4 33.6

55.5 34.2

57.6 34.8

59.6 35.4

61.8 36

64 36.6

66.4 37.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.6 3.5

52.3 3.4

54.1 3.4

55.9 3.3

57.7 3.2

59.6 3.3

61.5 3.3

63.5 3.3

65.6 3.2

67.7 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

126.1 1.8

128.4 1.8

130.7 1.8

133.1 1.8

135.6 1.9

138.1 1.9

140.7 1.9

143.3 1.9

146 1.9

148.7 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 -1.3

6.8 -1.6

6.7 -1.5

6.6 -1.5

6.5 -1.5

6.4 -1.1

6.3 -1.2

6.2 -1.2

6.2 -1.1

6.1 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

119.2 2

121.6 2

124 2

126.5 2

129.1 2

131.7 2

134.3 2

137.1 2

139.8 2

142.6 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 2.2

12.9 2.1

13.2 2.3

13.6 2.4

14 3

14.4 3.2

14.8 2.8

15.2 2.5

15.5 2.4

16 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

27.2 1.8

27.7 1.8

28.2 1.8

28.7 1.8

29.2 1.7

29.7 1.7

30.2 1.6

30.7 1.6

31.2 1.5

31.6 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.5 17.5 4.2

5.6 17.8 4.3

5.7 18.1 4.4

5.9 18.3 4.6

6 18.6 4.7

6.1 18.8 4.9

6.2 19.1 5

6.3 19.3 5.1

6.3 19.6 5.2

6.4 19.9 5.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 2

2.2 2

2.2 2

2.3 1.9

2.3 1.8

2.4 1.9

2.4 2.1

2.5 2.2

2.5 2.3

2.6 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 1.6

7.2 1.5

7.3 1.4

7.4 1.4

7.5 1.7

7.6 1.5

7.7 1.3

7.8 1.3

7.9 1.5

8.1 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 4.3

13.4 4.4

13.9 4.4

14.6 4.5

15.3 4.8

16 4.6

16.7 4.7

17.5 4.8

18.4 4.7

19.1 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.9 2

20.2 1.9

20.6 1.7

21 1.8

21.3 1.6

21.6 1.5

22 1.6

22.3 1.7

22.7 1.7

23.1 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 1.3

11.8 1.3

11.9 1.2

12.1 1.2

12.2 1.1

12.4 1.1

12.5 1.2

12.7 1.2

12.8 1.4

13 1.3

4.8 2.1

4.9 2.2

5 2

5.1 1.8

5.2 1.6

5.3 1.8

5.4 2

5.5 2

5.6 2

5.7 2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -6.1

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.5

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.5

0.9 4.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 1.4

20.5 1.2

20.7 1.3

21 1.2

21.2 1.2

21.5 1.1

21.7 1.2

22 1.1

22.2 1.1

22.4 1.1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9685

10050.8

10421.4

10800.5

11212.7

11626.1

12041

12464.4

12902.7

13357.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

435.9 2.2

445.3 2.2

454.9 2.2

464.7 2.2

474.8 2.2

484.9 2.1

495.3 2.1

505.7 2.1

516.3 2.1

527 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

173.2 1.8

176.2 1.8

179.4 1.8

182.6 1.8

186.1 1.9

189.9 2.1

193.9 2.1

197.9 2.1

202.1 2.1

206.2 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

5220 4922 298

5162 4856 306

5084 4785 298

5019 4725 294

5041 4750 291

5033 4743 289

4963 4677 286

4862 4579 282

4798 4520 279

4808 4533 276

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

36.9 5.6 10.6 26.3

39 5.5 11.1 27.9

41.1 5.5 11.6 29.5

43.4 5.5 12.2 31.2

45.8 5.5 12.7 33

48.3 5.6 13.4 35

51.1 5.9 14 37.1

54.1 5.7 14.7 39.3

57.2 5.8 15.5 41.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 3.6

21 3.5

21.8 3.5

22.5 3.5

23.3 3.6

24.2 3.6

25.1 3.8

26 3.7

27 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

68.6 37.8

70.9 38.3

73.3 38.8

75.8 39.4

78.3 40

81 40.6

84 41.3

87.1 41.9

90.3 42.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.8 3.1

72.1 3.2

74.3 3.1

76.6 3.1

78.9 3.1

81.4 3.1

84 3.1

86.6 3.1

89.2 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

151.1 1.6

153.5 1.6

155.9 1.6

158.4 1.6

160.9 1.6

163.4 1.6

166.4 1.8

169.6 1.9

172.9 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -0.8

6 -1.2

5.9 -1.1

5.9 -0.8

5.9 -0.6

5.8 -0.5

5.8 -0.3

5.8 0

5.8 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

145 1.7

147.5 1.7

149.9 1.7

152.5 1.7

155 1.7

157.6 1.7

160.6 1.9

163.8 1.9

167.1 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 2.4

16.7 2

17 1.9

17.3 1.9

17.6 1.8

18 2

18.4 2.1

18.8 2.1

19.2 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32 1.3

32.4 1.3

32.8 1.1

33.1 1

33.4 0.9

33.7 0.9

34.1 1.1

34.5 1

34.8 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.4 20.2 5.4

6.5 20.5 5.5

6.5 20.8 5.5

6.5 21.1 5.6

6.5 21.3 5.6

6.5 21.6 5.6

6.5 21.9 5.7

6.5 22.2 5.7

6.6 22.5 5.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 2.1

2.7 2.1

2.8 2

2.8 2.1

2.9 1.9

2.9 2

3 2.2

3.1 2.2

3.1 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 1.4

8.3 1.3

8.4 1.3

8.5 1.5

8.6 1.5

8.8 1.4

8.9 1.5

9 1.5

9.2 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 3.2

20.3 3.2

21.1 3.6

21.9 4

22.8 3.9

23.7 4.2

24.8 4.4

26 4.9

27.5 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 1.7

23.9 1.7

24.3 1.6

24.7 1.6

25.1 1.5

25.4 1.4

25.8 1.6

26.2 1.5

26.6 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 1.4

13.3 1.2

13.5 1.2

13.6 1

13.8 1.1

13.9 1

14.1 1.4

14.3 1.4

14.5 1.2

5.9 2

6 2

6.1 1.7

6.2 1.8

6.3 1.8

6.4 1.9

6.5 2.1

6.7 2.1

6.8 2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.9 -1.1

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.5

1 1.5

1 1.5

1 1.5

1 1.5

1 1.4

1 1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 1

22.9 1

23.1 1

23.3 0.9

23.5 1

23.8 1

24 1

24.2 0.9

24.4 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13795.8

14238

14716.1

15228.8

15761.7

16323.1

16899.8

17514.9

18175.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

538.1 2.1

549.4 2.1

560.8 2.1

572.4 2.1

584.2 2.1

596.2 2.1

608.4 2

620.8 2

633.4 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

210.5 2

214.7 2

219.1 2

223.5 2

227.9 2

232.4 2

236.9 1.9

241.5 1.9

246.1 1.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

94

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

4771 4503 268

4675 4412 264

4646 4386 260

4657 4399 258

4663 4408 254

4660 4409 251

4634 4382 252

4597 4348 250

4573 4325 247


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 2,054,574 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 307,243 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,072,801 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 263,676 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 410,854 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,110,673 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 9.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 107,808 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees

• Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees • University of Central Florida – 9,537 employees • Orange County Government – 7,426 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and Orlando Business Journal

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Orlando – Kissimmee MSA area is expected to show positive growth in the next few years, and ranks among the highest metros in many of the indicators. Personal income is expected to be one of the highest in the state, growing at a rate of 3.2 percent. Per capita income is expected to be at a level of 28.6. Average annual wage growth will be one of the highest in the state at 2.5 percent. Average annual wage levels will be at 43.5. The Orlando MSA will see a population growth of 1.2 percent, also one of the highest in the state. Gross metro product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 79,121.73 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.4 percent annually, the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 9.9 percent. In the Orlando area, the top sector is expected to be Education and Health Services with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. This will be followed by Professional and Business Services and State & Local Government, each with average annual growth rates of 2.6 and 1.0 percent, respectively. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.9 percent.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

95


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s

March, Q1 airport traffic falls 12.8%

Hitt: ‘Hundreds’ of UCF jobs could be lost

• In the first quarter of this year, Orlando International Airport experienced a 13.8% decline in domestic travelers and less than 1% decline in international travelers, amounting to an overall 12.8% reduction in passengers.

• The House of Representatives’ proposed budget would cut $57 million in federal funding to UCF, a decision that could result in hundreds of layoffs and the removal of university programs. • UCF cut its budget in July 2008 by $11.4 million and lost $40 million in state funding the prior year, meaning the university has the potential to lose over $100 million in government funding in just two years. • Even the 15% increase in tuition will only yield $10 to $12 million for the university, which is nowhere near enough to cover current operating costs. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 22, 2009 Discounts fill Disney’s parks, but can they boost earnings? • Walt Disney theme parks have begun battling the recession through the implementation of steep discounts on hotel stays, tickets, and food, as Goldman Sachs analysts observed that attendance at Disney parks fell only 4% from last year compared to Universal’s drop of 20%. • CEO Bob Iger expressed that the company is willing to except lower profit margins if it keeps the park open and continues to expose customers to Disney’s brand. • However, with such attractive discount offers for immediate customers, many officials predict it will be difficult for Disney to sustain such attendance later in the year. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 5, 2009

• The Smith Travel Agency predicts this slide to last through the year, estimating a 9.8% drop in U.S. hotel revenue. • The effect of the drop in tourism is evident as tourist tax revenue in Orange County is down 12% from October to February. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 4, 2009 Orlando to cut 10 percent of employees, more than 100 emergency workers • Barring a tax windfall, Orlando government will cut its workforce by 10 percent; eliminating 342 jobs including over 100 police and firefighters. • The decision could mean anything from reduced holiday decorations and litter management to a diminished number of people to respond to emergencies. • The decision is part of an overall effort by Mayor Buddy Dyer to counteract the projected $40-million budget deficit. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 13, 2009 Hotel occupancy remains down in mid-May • Orlando hotel occupancy fell to 54.9% during the week ending May 19th, having dropped roughly 14% from the same week last year. • Revenue per available room, a figure that takes into account inventory, occupancy and room rates, fell to $52.82, down 24.6% from the previous year. • Metro Orlando has over 114,000 hotel rooms, a number surpassed only by Las Vegas. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 22, 2009

96

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

0.6

300000.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 OrlandoPayroll Employment

Orlando Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

250000.0

6.0%

200000.0

4.0%

150000.0

2.0%

100000.0

0.0%

50000.0 0.0

1

Orlando Payroll Employment

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

0.8

-2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

97


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

71.1 -1.4 43.4 27.7

70.5 -1.8 43.3 27.2

70.8 -1.2 43.5 27.2

71.2 0.3 43.8 27.5

71.9 1.1 44.1 27.8

72.7 3.1 44.5 28.2

73.6 4 45 28.6

74.4 4.5 45.5 28.9

75.4 4.9 46.1 29.4

76.6 5.2 46.7 29.9

77.7 5.6 47.3 30.4

79 6.2 48.1 30.9

80.4 6.6 48.9 31.5

81.8 6.9 49.7 32.1

83.2 7 50.5 32.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

58.7 -1.1

58.2 -0.3

58.3 -1.1

58.5 -0.2

58.8 0.2

59.2 1.7

59.6 2.3

60.1 2.7

60.6 3.1

61.2 3.3

61.8 3.7

62.6 4.2

63.4 4.7

64.2 5

65 5.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

34.2 28.2

33.9 28

33.9 27.9

34.1 28

34.3 28.1

34.6 28.2

34.9 28.3

35.2 28.4

35.6 28.6

36 28.8

36.4 29

36.9 29.2

37.4 29.5

37.9 29.7

38.3 29.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42 3.4

42.2 3

42.5 2.6

42.7 2.4

42.9 2.1

43.1 2.2

43.4 2.2

43.6 2.3

43.8 2.3

44 2.1

44.3 2

44.5 2.1

44.8 2.2

45.1 2.5

45.4 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1029.9 -5.1

1023 -4.7

1020.7 -3.8

1021.4 -2

1024.4 -0.5

1027.8 0.5

1032.9 1.2

1039.4 1.8

1047.2 2.2

1055.7 2.7

1064.9 3.1

1075.8 3.5

1087.1 3.8

1098 4

1108.1 4.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

39.7 -7.2

38.2 -10.1

37.2 -12.2

36.8 -11.4

36.5 -8.1

36.7 -4

36.9 -0.8

37.1 0.7

37.4 2.3

37.8 3.2

38.4 4.1

38.8 4.7

39.2 5

39.7 4.8

40.1 4.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

990.1 -5

984.8 -4.4

983.6 -3.4

984.6 -1.6

987.9 -0.2

991.2 0.7

996.1 1.3

1002.4 1.8

1009.8 2.2

1017.8 2.7

1026.6 3.1

1037 3.5

1047.9 3.8

1058.4 4

1068 4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

62 -16.6

60.3 -15.1

58.6 -13.9

57.3 -12.1

55.7 -10.1

54.5 -9.7

54.3 -7.4

54 -5.7

54.4 -2.3

55.1 1.1

56 3.1

57.1 5.6

58.3 7.1

59.3 7.6

60.3 7.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

192.5 -4.9

191.7 -4.3

192 -2.1

192.5 -1.3

193 0.2

193.3 0.9

193.5 0.8

193.8 0.7

194 0.5

194.7 0.7

196.2 1.4

197.8 2

199.6 2.9

201.6 3.6

203.7 3.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

45.4 115.2 32.1

45.2 114.9 31.9

45.4 114.8 32.1

45.3 115.4 32.2

45.3 115.8 32.2

45.2 116 32.2

45.1 115.8 32.2

45.3 115.4 32.4

45.7 114.6 32.7

46.3 114.3 33.2

47 114.9 33.7

47.7 115.5 34.2

48.4 116.2 34.7

49.2 116.9 35.3

50 117.5 35.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 -5.1

24.6 -5.5

24.2 -6.2

23.8 -6.5

23.4 -6.4

23.4 -4.9

23.9 -1.6

24.2 1.9

24.4 4.6

24.5 4.3

24.4 2.3

24.4 0.8

24.5 0.2

24.5 0.3

24.6 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

66.2 -1.1

65.9 -1.5

66 -1.4

66.2 -0.5

66.3 0.2

66.3 0.6

66.4 0.6

66.6 0.6

67 1

67.5 1.8

68.1 2.5

68.7 3.1

69.3 3.5

69.9 3.6

70.4 3.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

163.2 -10.6

160.7 -9.6

159.6 -7.8

159.6 -4.6

161 -1.4

163.8 2

168.3 5.4

173 8.4

177.6 10.3

181.7 10.9

185.8 10.4

190.7 10.2

195.2 9.9

199.2 9.6

202.2 8.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

119.4 2.3

120.2 2.1

121 2.1

122.2 3.1

123.7 3.6

125.1 4

125.8 4

126.1 3.2

127.1 2.7

128.1 2.4

128.8 2.4

129.3 2.5

130 2.3

130.6 1.9

131.2 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

191.8 -4.8

191.5 -4.3

191.9 -3.3

192.1 -0.3

192.6 0.4

193.1 0.8

192.9 0.5

192.9 0.5

193.4 0.4

193.9 0.4

194.8 1

195.9 1.6

197.1 1.9

198.2 2.2

199.4 2.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 -5.1

50.5 -4.3

51 -3

51.2 0.7

51.3 1.1

51.6 2.1

51.6 1.3

51.9 1.3

52 1.4

52.2 1.1

52.3 1.2

52.3 0.8

52.3 0.5

52.4 0.5

52.7 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 0.8

11.7 -0.6

11.7 -0.7

11.9 1.5

13.2 11.4

12.2 4.5

11.7 0.5

11.7 -2

11.7 -11.2

11.7 -4

11.7 -0.4

11.7 0.2

11.7 0.5

11.8 0.7

11.8 0.8

107.4 1.3

107.6 1.4

107.6 0.5

107.7 0.2

107.8 0.3

107.9 0.3

107.7 0.1

108 0.3

108.2 0.4

108.4 0.5

108.6 0.8

109.1 1

110 1.7

110.8 2.2

111.8 3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

75611.6

75422.1

75491.8

75707.6

76364

76977.4

77757.4

78404.2

79330.6

80327.9

81360.1

82499.9

83718.8

84835.7

85878.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2078 1.1

2081.5 1

2085.2 0.9

2089.8 0.8

2094.6 0.8

2099.7 0.9

2105.4 1

2112 1.1

2119.1 1.2

2126.6 1.3

2134.6 1.4

2143.1 1.5

2152.2 1.6

2161.6 1.6

2171.5 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1124.4 1.3

1123 0.5

1122.7 -0.6

1124.1 -0.1

1126.9 0.2

1129.9 0.6

1133.3 0.9

1137.6 1.2

1141.2 1.3

1145.1 1.3

1149.4 1.4

1153.6 1.4

1157.9 1.5

1162.6 1.5

1167.5 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.3

10.6

10.7

10.7

10.8

10.7

10.4

10.1

9.9

9.7

9.4

9.4

9.1

8.8

8.5

5109 3364 1745

5619 4017 1601

7895 5398 2497

9812 7058 2754

11195 8425 2770

13091 10194 2898

14801 11802 2999

16480 13521 2959

18294 15302 2992

19780 16670 3110

20992 17713 3279

22254 18650 3604

23591 19642 3949

24737 20361 4377

25238 20568 4669

*Quarterly at an annual rate

98

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7

56 9.6 35.6 20.4

61.6 9.9 39.2 22.4

67.1 8.9 42.2 24.9

70 4.4 43.9 26.2

71.7 2.4 44.2 27.5

70.9 -1.2 43.5 27.4

72.4 2.1 44.3 28

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.7 2.8

48.4 3.7

51.7 6.8

55.2 6.8

58.5 6

59.5 1.7

59 -0.9

58.4 -0.9

59 1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

27.4 26.5

28.2 26.7

29.9 27.6

31.7 28.4

33.6 29.3

34.5 29.3

34.9 28.7

34.1 28.1

34.5 28.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.5 4.2

34.8 3.9

36.3 4.3

37.8 4.1

39.2 3.8

39.9 1.8

40.8 2.3

42.1 3

43 2.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

908.4 -1

928.1 2.2

976.6 5.2

1032.4 5.7

1071.3 3.8

1094.8 2.2

1078.4 -1.5

1029 -4.6

1026.6 -0.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 -7.5

43.2 -4.9

44.1 2.2

45.3 2.7

44.5 -1.9

44.1 -0.8

42.7 -3.1

39.1 -8.4

36.7 -6.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

863 -0.6

884.9 2.5

932.4 5.4

987.1 5.9

1026.8 4

1050.7 2.3

1035.7 -1.4

989.8 -4.4

989.9 0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

61.4 1.8

66 7.4

74.2 12.5

84.4 13.7

91.2 8

85.4 -6.4

73 -14.5

61.5 -15.7

55.4 -9.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

171.6 -3.7

173.4 1

181.7 4.8

192.8 6.1

198.8 3.1

204 2.6

201.1 -1.4

192.8 -4.1

193.1 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

39.6 104.8 27.3

40 107.4 25.9

42 113.5 26.2

44.7 120.1 28

46.2 122.4 30.3

47.3 123.7 33

46.7 121.3 33.1

45.5 115.3 32.2

45.2 115.7 32.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -2

23.1 2.5

23.8 3.1

24.7 3.9

25.8 4.6

26.8 3.7

26.2 -2.1

24.8 -5.4

23.6 -4.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

54.7 1

57.4 4.8

59.5 3.7

63.7 7.1

67 5.2

67.8 1.1

67 -1.1

66.2 -1.3

66.3 0.2

152.3 -2.9

152.2 -0.1

162.4 6.7

175.4 8

182.1 3.9

187 2.6

179.9 -3.8

162.7 -9.6

163.2 0.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

89.4 2.7

93.6 4.7

97.3 4

102.2 5

107.5 5.2

112.7 4.8

117.3 4.1

119.8 2.2

124.2 3.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

165 -3.3

169.9 3

179.4 5.6

183.6 2.4

186.9 1.8

193.6 3.6

200.2 3.4

191.9 -4.1

192.6 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 7

45.7 0.7

47.5 4

49.9 4.9

53.4 7.1

55.8 4.5

53 -5

50.8 -4.2

51.4 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 1.2

11.1 7

11.2 1.2

11.8 5.2

11.4 -3.5

11.5 0.4

11.7 2.2

11.7 0.3

12.3 4.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

90.2 5.8

92.6 2.6

95.4 3

98.7 3.5

102.7 4.1

106.2 3.4

106.2 0

107.5 1.2

107.8 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

58982.2

62259.4

66657.7

72893.2

76534.3

78098.3

78671.4

75696.3

76701.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1761.1 2.8

1810.1 2.8

1873.1 3.5

1941.9 3.7

1996.8 2.8

2031.3 1.7

2057.8 1.3

2079.6 1.1

2097.4 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

917.6 1.2

932.9 1.7

961.8 3.1

1005 4.5

1046.6 4.1

1088.8 4

1116.9 2.6

1123.7 0.6

1128.6 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.6

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.2

3.8

5.9

10.3

10.6

25182 17509 7673

27607 22318 5289

32400 26196 6204

33906 26872 7034

30304 24310 5994

17991 12531 5460

10604 5733 4871

6095 4133 1962

12225 9370 2855

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

99


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

76 5.1 46.4 29.6

81.1 6.7 49.3 31.8

87 7.3 52.6 34.4

92.9 6.7 55.9 37

99.2 6.8 59.4 39.8

105.9 6.8 63 42.8

112.9 6.6 66.9 46

120.6 6.9 71.1 49.5

129.2 7.1 75.5 53.7

138.6 7.3 80.2 58.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

60.9 3.2

63.8 4.8

67.2 5.3

70.5 4.9

74 4.9

77.5 4.8

81 4.5

84.9 4.8

89.2 5

93.9 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

35.8 28.7

37.6 29.6

39.6 30.6

41.4 31.4

43.3 32.3

45.2 33.1

47.1 33.8

49.2 34.6

51.5 35.6

54 36.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.9 2.2

45 2.4

46.3 2.9

47.8 3.2

49.3 3.3

51 3.3

52.7 3.3

54.4 3.4

56.2 3.3

58.1 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1051.8 2.5

1092.3 3.8

1132.4 3.7

1165.3 2.9

1199.3 2.9

1233.5 2.8

1266.2 2.7

1302.9 2.9

1339.7 2.8

1375.9 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 2.6

39.5 4.8

41 4

41.6 1.4

41.7 0.2

41.7 0

41.6 -0.1

41.7 0.1

41.7 0.1

41.6 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1014.1 2.4

1052.8 3.8

1091.4 3.7

1123.7 3

1157.6 3

1191.8 3

1224.5 2.7

1261.2 3

1298 2.9

1334.3 2.8

54.9 -1

58.7 7

62.6 6.6

65.7 5

69.2 5.3

72.7 5.1

76.1 4.7

79.9 5.1

83.1 3.9

86 3.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

194.7 0.8

200.7 3.1

209.8 4.6

217 3.4

222.6 2.6

226.5 1.7

229.7 1.4

234.2 2

239.3 2.2

244.5 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

46.1 114.8 33

48.8 116.5 35

51.8 120 37

53.6 123.3 38.2

55.3 126.1 39.6

56.6 126.9 41.1

58 127.4 42.5

60 128.7 44.2

62.1 130.6 45.7

64.4 133 46.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 3.3

24.5 0.5

24.9 1.7

25.5 2.3

26.1 2.3

26.8 2.8

27.6 2.8

28.3 2.7

29 2.4

29.6 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

67.3 1.5

69.6 3.4

71.2 2.4

72.1 1.2

73.1 1.4

74.1 1.3

74.9 1.1

75.7 1.1

76.9 1.5

78.4 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

179.5 10

196.8 9.6

208.7 6.1

220.4 5.6

235.2 6.7

250.7 6.6

266.5 6.3

285 6.9

302.9 6.3

319.6 5.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

127.5 2.7

130.3 2.1

133.1 2.2

136.8 2.8

141 3.1

145.4 3.1

149.2 2.6

152.8 2.4

156.3 2.3

159.8 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

193.8 0.6

197.7 2

201.7 2.1

203.7 1

205 0.7

207.2 1.1

209.5 1.1

211.5 1

214.1 1.2

217.2 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

52.1 1.2

52.4 0.6

53.3 1.7

54.5 2.2

55.2 1.4

56.1 1.6

56.9 1.4

57.5 1.1

58 1

58.6 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 -4.6

11.8 0.6

11.9 0.8

12 0.8

12.1 1.2

12.3 1.4

12.4 1.3

12.6 1.3

12.8 1.3

13 1.9

108.3 0.5

110.4 2

114.1 3.3

116.1 1.8

118.1 1.7

120 1.6

121.8 1.5

123.7 1.6

125.7 1.6

127.6 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

79855.7

84233.3

88099.4

91656.9

95995.1

100314

104682

109641

114878

120236

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2123.1 1.2

2157.1 1.6

2198.4 1.9

2244.1 2.1

2292.9 2.2

2344.2 2.2

2397 2.3

2451.2 2.3

2506.9 2.3

2563.7 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1143.3 1.3

1160.4 1.5

1180 1.7

1200.5 1.7

1223.5 1.9

1249.4 2.1

1275.7 2.1

1302.5 2.1

1330.3 2.1

1358.1 2.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.8

9

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.6

6.1

5.6

5.1

4.6

18887 15801 3085

23955 19805 4150

25405 20813 4592

25570 21020 4550

27086 21527 5559

28062 21903 6159

28425 21838 6588

29004 21878 7125

29898 21998 7900

30773 22068 8705

Continued 100

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

148.4 7.1 85 63.4

158.8 7 90 68.8

169.5 6.8 95.2 74.3

180.6 6.5 100.7 79.9

192.3 6.5 106.6 85.7

204.6 6.4 112.9 91.8

217.7 6.4 119.5 98.3

231.5 6.3 126.5 105.1

245.9 6.2 133.9 112.1

260.9 6.1 141.5 119.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

98.8 5.2

103.8 5.1

108.8 4.8

113.8 4.6

119 4.6

124.3 4.5

129.8 4.4

135.5 4.3

141.1 4.2

146.8 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

56.6 37.7

59.2 38.7

61.9 39.7

64.5 40.6

67.2 41.6

69.9 42.5

72.8 43.4

75.8 44.3

78.8 45.2

81.8 46.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

60.1 3.4

62.1 3.3

64.2 3.3

66.2 3.2

68.3 3.2

70.5 3.2

72.8 3.2

75.1 3.2

77.5 3.2

79.9 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1410.3 2.5

1445 2.5

1480.4 2.5

1517.5 2.5

1557.5 2.6

1597.5 2.6

1638.1 2.5

1680.7 2.6

1724.3 2.6

1767 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 -0.8

40.8 -1.3

40.3 -1.1

39.9 -0.9

39.6 -0.7

39.5 -0.4

39.3 -0.5

39.1 -0.5

38.9 -0.4

38.8 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1369 2.6

1404.3 2.6

1440.2 2.6

1477.5 2.6

1517.9 2.7

1558.1 2.6

1598.8 2.6

1641.6 2.7

1685.4 2.7

1728.2 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

89.1 3.5

92.1 3.4

95 3.2

98.2 3.3

101.9 3.8

105.7 3.8

109.4 3.4

112.8 3.1

116.1 3

119.9 3.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

249.7 2.1

255.1 2.1

260.5 2.1

266.1 2.2

271.8 2.1

277.3 2

282.5 1.9

287.8 1.9

292.8 1.8

297.7 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

66.7 135.3 48.1

68.9 137.3 49.4

70.9 139.3 50.7

72.9 141.2 52

75 143.1 53.3

76.9 144.9 54.5

78.6 146.9 55.5

80.4 149.1 56.4

81.8 151.6 57.1

83.1 153.8 57.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 2.4

31.1 2.5

31.9 2.5

32.7 2.6

33.6 2.6

34.5 2.7

35.5 2.8

36.6 3

37.7 3.1

38.8 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

79.7 1.7

80.9 1.5

82 1.3

83.1 1.4

84.5 1.7

85.8 1.6

87.1 1.4

88.3 1.5

89.8 1.6

91.4 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

334.6 4.7

349.6 4.5

365.2 4.5

381.8 4.5

400.3 4.8

418.7 4.6

437.9 4.6

458.7 4.7

479.8 4.6

499.1 4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

162.8 1.9

165.7 1.8

168.8 1.9

171.9 1.9

174.9 1.8

178 1.7

181.2 1.8

184.7 1.9

188.3 2

192 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

220.5 1.5

223.8 1.5

227.1 1.5

230.6 1.5

234.3 1.6

237.7 1.5

241.3 1.5

245 1.5

249.3 1.7

253.3 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

59.6 1.7

61 2.4

62.5 2.4

63.9 2.2

65.3 2.2

66.8 2.3

68.4 2.5

70.2 2.5

71.9 2.5

73.7 2.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 1

13.3 1.4

13.5 1.4

13.7 1.4

13.9 1.4

14.1 1.4

14.3 1.4

14.5 1.4

14.7 1.4

15.2 4

129.6 1.6

131.7 1.6

133.6 1.5

135.5 1.4

137.4 1.4

139.3 1.4

141.3 1.4

143.2 1.3

145 1.3

146.8 1.2

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

125726

131233

136618

142157

148205

154292

160439

166782

173324

180052

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2621.5 2.3

2680.3 2.2

2740.2 2.2

2801 2.2

2863 2.2

2926 2.2

2990 2.2

3055.2 2.2

3121.3 2.2

3188.3 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1385.4 2

1412.8 2

1441.1 2

1470.2 2

1501 2.1

1535 2.3

1570.3 2.3

1606.7 2.3

1643.8 2.3

1681.5 2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

31123 21858 9265

31260 21691 9569

31165 21615 9550

31113 21569 9544

31512 21884 9629

31643 21944 9698

31422 21670 9752

31049 21240 9810

30884 21016 9869

31116 21156 9960

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

101


O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

276 5.8 148.9 127.1

291.8 5.7 156.5 135.3

308.6 5.8 164.6 144

326.6 5.9 173.3 153.4

345.9 5.9 182.5 163.4

366.6 6 192.5 174.1

389.2 6.1 203.6 185.5

413.4 6.2 215.6 197.8

439.2 6.2 228.2 211

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

152.4 3.8

158 3.7

163.9 3.8

170.2 3.9

176.9 3.9

184 4

191.6 4.2

199.7 4.2

208.2 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

84.8 46.8

87.7 47.5

90.9 48.3

94.3 49.1

97.8 50

101.6 51

105.7 52

110.1 53.2

114.6 54.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

82.4 3.1

84.8 3

87.4 3

90 3

92.8 3

95.7 3.1

98.7 3.1

101.7 3.1

104.8 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1804.3 2.1

1841.4 2.1

1880.3 2.1

1921.9 2.2

1964.3 2.2

2009.4 2.3

2060.8 2.6

2116.1 2.7

2174.8 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

38.7 -0.2

38.6 -0.4

38.4 -0.4

38.3 -0.3

38.2 -0.2

38.2 -0.1

38.2 0.1

38.3 0.3

38.5 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1765.6 2.2

1802.9 2.1

1841.9 2.2

1883.6 2.3

1926.1 2.3

1971.2 2.3

2022.6 2.6

2077.7 2.7

2136.3 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

123.4 2.9

126.6 2.6

129.7 2.4

132.7 2.3

135.7 2.3

139.1 2.5

142.8 2.7

146.7 2.7

150.7 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

302.2 1.5

306.6 1.4

310.3 1.2

313.8 1.1

317.1 1.1

320.3 1

324.3 1.2

328 1.1

331.6 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

84.3 156 58.6

85.3 158.3 59.1

86.1 160.7 59

86.9 163 59

87.6 165.4 58.8

88.3 167.7 58.7

89.1 170.4 58.6

90 173 58.4

90.9 175.5 58.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

40 2.9

41.1 2.8

42.2 2.8

43.4 2.9

44.6 2.7

45.8 2.8

47.2 3

48.7 3.1

50.2 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

92.9 1.6

94.2 1.4

95.5 1.4

97.1 1.6

98.7 1.6

100.2 1.6

101.9 1.7

103.6 1.7

105.3 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

515.1 3.2

531.4 3.2

550.1 3.5

571.5 3.9

593.8 3.9

618.6 4.2

646.7 4.5

678.7 4.9

714.2 5.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

195.4 1.7

198.7 1.7

202 1.6

205.2 1.6

208.3 1.5

211.3 1.4

214.5 1.5

217.5 1.4

220.4 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

257.6 1.7

261.4 1.5

265.4 1.6

269.2 1.4

273.4 1.5

277.2 1.4

282.1 1.8

287 1.8

291.7 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

75.4 2.4

77.2 2.4

78.9 2.2

80.7 2.2

82.4 2.2

84.3 2.2

86.4 2.5

88.5 2.5

90.7 2.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 -1.2

15.3 1.4

15.5 1.4

15.7 1.4

15.9 1.4

16.1 1.4

16.3 1.4

16.6 1.4

16.8 1.3

148.6 1.2

150.4 1.2

152.3 1.3

154.2 1.2

156.2 1.3

158.2 1.3

160.3 1.3

162.4 1.3

164.7 1.4

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

186546

193084

200094

207540

215259

223356

231729

240597

249956

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3256.1 2.1

3324.8 2.1

3394.4 2.1

3464.8 2.1

3536.2 2.1

3608.4 2

3681.7 2

3756 2

3831.4 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1719.8 2.3

1758.8 2.3

1798.5 2.3

1838.8 2.2

1879.9 2.2

1921.7 2.2

1964.2 2.2

2007.4 2.2

2052 2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

102

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

30952 21091 9861

30610 20719 9891

30601 20678 9924

30870 20839 10031

31046 20988 10057

31157 21103 10055

31341 21122 10219

31358 21101 10257

31445 21141 10304


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville MSA is expected to achieve modest growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow on average 2.7 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 29.6 percent annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, while average annual wage levels should be at 46.0. Population growth is expected to be at an average of 0.4 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 16,278.13 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to decline at an average of -0.4 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 10.5 percent. Education and Health Services is expected to be the top sector in the area, averaging 2.2 percent growth annually. Professional and Business Services follow with an average growth of 0.3 percent. All other sectors will see declining rates. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -2.8 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 536,521 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 256,092 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 9.8% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 26,067 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Harris Corporation – 6,700 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,420 employees • United Space Alliance – 5,890 employees • Wuesthoff Health System – 2,430 employees • Space Gateway Support – 1,760 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,640 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,430 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,160 employees • Parrish Medical Center – 1,040 employees • The Boeing Company – 1,010 employees Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Schools to lose $30M in budget • Brevard County schools will lose $30 million in their budget, a decision that will reduce per student spending by $13.68. • If not for effective lobbying, the cuts could have amounted to more than $100 million, forcing the firing of nearly 1,000 teaching positions and the elimination of many athletic programs. • As a result of the budget shortfall, homeowners will likely see their property taxes increased by $25 per $100,000 of assessed property value in an effort to raise an additional quarter million dollars. Source: Florida Today, May 6, 2009 Harris profits up 6% for quarter • Harris Corp.’s revenue for the 3rd quarter of 2009 was $1.36 billion, up by 6% from $1.33 billion of the prior-year quarter. • Harris executives reported a significant decline in military and private orders during the 3rd quarter as a result of the recession, a factor that is expected to affect 2010 revenue in a negative way. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

103


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

• The company, which employs more than 7,000 Brevard County residents, hopes to raise revenue by $1 billion in the future through working on the avionics of the F-35 fighter jet. Source: Florida Today, May 6, 2009 Palm Bay voters finding tax issue hard to swallow • Many Palm Bay voters who feel they are already overtaxed in a turbulent economy are opposing a $75 million bond for road improvements and business incentives. • According to officials, the bond would be a catalyst for economic development and stimulate the economy by creating 557 construction jobs. • The plan would increase property taxes by $80 for homeowners with homes assessed at over $130,000 and a $50,000 homestead exemption. Source: Florida Today, May 12, 2009 Delinquent taxes in Brevard at record level • For the second consecutive year, unpaid taxes are at a record level, amounting to more than $37 million in property taxes for 2008 that has yet to be paid to Brevard County. • According to officials, 86.9% of all taxes owed to the county were paid by April 1, down from 91.4% last year. • Tax certificate programs have been sold to delinquent property owners where third parties pay off the overdue taxes and give the clients two years to pay back the certificate holders plus interest. Source: Florida Today, May 14, 2009

104

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

Budget cuts shrink size of summer school • After two rounds of budget cuts, Brevard County School District’s previous $5-million summer school budget has been almost entirely eliminated. • In an effort to maintain stable FCAT scores, schools will function as reading camps for the lowest performing third graders, a specification that qualifies around 650 children to attend summer school and will cost the county $123,000. • Another summer program aimed at aiding schools struggling with maintaining stipulations of the No Child Left Behind law will cost the county around $160,000. Source: Florida Today, June 4, 2009


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1

(percent)

10.0%

350.0

(Thousands)

250.0

6.0%

200.0

4.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

150.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product 45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

2.5

300.0

8.0%

2.0%

2

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

105


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.9 -2.2 8.8 10.1

18.7 -2.6 8.8 10

18.8 -1.7 8.8 10

18.9 -0.6 8.8 10.1

19.1 0.8 8.9 10.2

19.3 2.9 9 10.3

19.5 3.6 9.1 10.4

19.7 4.1 9.1 10.5

19.9 4.4 9.2 10.7

20.2 4.7 9.4 10.8

20.5 5.2 9.5 11

20.8 5.6 9.6 11.2

21.1 6 9.7 11.4

21.4 6.3 9.9 11.6

21.8 6.3 10 11.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 -1.9

15.5 -1.1

15.5 -1.6

15.5 -1.1

15.6 -0.2

15.7 1.5

15.8 2

15.9 2.4

16 2.6

16.1 2.8

16.3 3.3

16.5 3.7

16.7 4.2

16.8 4.4

17 4.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

35.2 29

34.8 28.7

34.9 28.8

35.2 28.9

35.5 29

35.8 29.2

36.1 29.3

36.5 29.4

36.9 29.6

37.3 29.8

37.8 30.1

38.3 30.3

38.8 30.6

39.3 30.9

39.8 31.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.4 3.3

44.6 2.9

44.9 2.5

45.2 2.6

45.4 2.2

45.6 2.2

45.8 2.1

46.1 2.1

46.3 2.1

46.5 2

46.8 2.1

47.1 2.1

47.4 2.3

47.7 2.5

48 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195.1 -6.6

193.5 -6

192.7 -5

192.6 -4.3

193.4 -0.9

193.8 0.1

194.4 0.9

195.4 1.4

196.7 1.7

198 2.2

199.4 2.5

200.8 2.8

202.6 3

204.2 3.1

205.6 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

21.9 -8.3

21 -10.2

20.4 -12.1

20.2 -11.4

20 -8.4

20.1 -4.1

20.2 -0.9

20.3 0.6

20.5 2.4

20.7 3.1

21 4.1

21.3 4.9

21.6 5.2

21.8 5

22 4.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

173.2 -6.3

172.5 -5.5

172.3 -4.1

172.4 -3.3

173.4 0.1

173.7 0.7

174.2 1.1

175.1 1.5

176.2 1.6

177.3 2.1

178.3 2.4

179.5 2.5

181 2.7

182.4 2.9

183.6 2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 -10.6

11.4 -10.3

11.1 -10.2

10.9 -11.1

10.6 -9.2

10.4 -8.7

10.4 -6.6

10.4 -4.7

10.5 -1.2

10.7 2.3

10.9 4.7

11.1 7.2

11.4 8.6

11.7 9.2

11.9 9.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.8 -5.8

33.6 -4.2

33.7 -2.2

33.8 -1.4

33.8 0.2

33.9 0.7

33.9 0.6

33.9 0.3

33.8 -0.2

33.8 -0.3

33.9 0.2

34.1 0.6

34.3 1.5

34.5 2.3

34.8 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.7 25.1 3

5.7 25.1 3

5.7 25 3

5.7 25.1 3

5.7 25.2 3

5.7 25.2 3

5.7 25.1 3

5.7 25 3

5.8 24.8 3.1

5.9 24.6 3.1

5.9 24.7 3.2

6 24.8 3.2

6.1 24.9 3.3

6.2 25 3.3

6.3 25 3.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 -1.1

2.8 -3.1

2.7 -2.4

2.7 -6.1

2.6 -6

2.7 -4.7

2.7 -1.2

2.7 2.2

2.8 4.6

2.8 4.2

2.8 2.2

2.8 0.9

2.8 0.4

2.8 0.5

2.8 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -10.6

7.4 -8.9

7.5 -3.9

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.9

7.5 0.8

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.1

7.5 0.5

7.6 1.2

7.6 1.7

7.6 2

7.7 2.3

7.7 2.5

7.8 2.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 -15.4

29.4 -15.8

29.1 -14.5

29.1 -13.5

29.4 -0.7

29.9 1.6

30.6 5

31.4 7.7

32.1 9.2

32.8 9.7

33.3 8.9

34 8.3

34.6 7.6

35.1 7.1

35.5 6.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 0.4

31 2.1

31.2 2.4

31.7 3.5

32.1 4.4

32.4 4.7

32.6 4.4

32.7 3.2

32.9 2.5

33.1 2.1

33.2 1.8

33.1 1.5

33.3 1.2

33.4 0.9

33.5 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 -7.3

20.4 -4.6

20.4 -2.3

20.4 -1.3

20.4 -0.8

20.4 -0.4

20.3 -0.7

20.2 -0.6

20.3 -0.5

20.3 -0.2

20.4 0.5

20.4 1

20.5 1.2

20.6 1.5

20.7 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8 -1.4

7.9 -2.9

8 -1.6

8 -0.5

8 0

8 0.6

8 -0.3

8 -0.3

8 -0.2

7.9 -0.3

7.9 -0.2

7.9 -0.5

7.9 -0.8

7.9 -0.7

7.9 -0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -2.6

6 -3.1

6 -1.2

6 -1.5

6.5 6

6.2 2.7

6 -0.4

5.9 -0.2

5.9 -8.2

5.9 -3.7

5.9 -1.1

5.9 -0.8

5.9 -0.4

5.9 -0.1

5.9 0.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 -0.9

22.5 -0.5

22.5 -0.7

22.5 -0.6

22.5 -0.3

22.5 -0.3

22.4 -0.5

22.4 -0.4

22.4 -0.4

22.4 -0.2

22.4 0.1

22.5 0.3

22.6 1

22.7 1.4

22.9 2.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

15642.7

15608.4

15608.4

15635.2

15758.5

15882

16020.3

16131.3

16305.1

16489.6

16673.3

16862.7

17083.1

17278.8

17460.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

537.4 0.2

537.5 0.1

537.3 0

537.4 0

537.6 0

538 0.1

538.4 0.2

539 0.3

539.8 0.4

540.7 0.5

541.8 0.6

542.9 0.7

544 0.8

545.2 0.8

546.7 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

269.4 1.3

269.3 0.5

269.5 -0.5

270 0.2

270.7 0.5

271.3 0.7

271.8 0.8

272.3 0.8

272.5 0.7

272.9 0.6

273.1 0.5

273.5 0.5

274.1 0.6

274.6 0.6

275.2 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.7

11

11.2

11.4

11.5

11.3

11

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.1

10

9.7

9.4

9.1

1017 836 181

1142 1015 127

1617 1324 293

2104 1749 355

2470 2096 374

2906 2495 411

3305 2870 435

3717 3290 427

4136 3701 435

4453 4007 447

4731 4257 474

4961 4428 533

5257 4662 595

5494 4826 668

5577 4863 714

*Quarterly at an annual rate

106

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.9 3.9 6.9 7

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7

17 7.5 8.7 8.3

18.2 7.5 9.2 9.1

18.8 3.3 9.2 9.6

19.2 1.8 9.1 10.1

18.9 -1.7 8.8 10

19.2 1.7 8.9 10.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 2.5

13.8 3.2

14.6 5.4

15.2 4.5

15.9 4.6

16 0.7

15.8 -1.4

15.6 -1.4

15.6 0.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

28 27

28.9 27.4

30.5 28.2

32.2 28.9

34.3 29.9

35.2 29.9

35.7 29.4

35.1 28.9

35.6 29.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35 3.4

36.7 4.7

38.4 4.8

40 4.2

41.5 3.6

42.6 2.6

43.2 1.5

44.5 2.9

45.5 2.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

193.8 -0.4

197.9 2.1

206.6 4.4

213.8 3.5

217.4 1.7

213.8 -1.7

207.5 -3

195.6 -5.7

193.6 -1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 -3.9

22.8 -0.5

23.6 3.8

23.9 1.2

24.6 2.7

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.8

21.5 -9.1

20.1 -6.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

170.9 0.1

175.1 2.4

183 4.5

189.8 3.7

192.9 1.6

189.7 -1.6

183.8 -3.1

174.1 -5.3

173.4 -0.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 -3.1

13 2.3

14.8 13.6

17.2 16.2

18.1 5

15.4 -15

13.1 -14.9

11.6 -11

10.6 -8.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

34.7 -0.1

34.2 -1.6

35.5 3.7

37.1 4.5

37.4 1

36.9 -1.5

35.5 -3.7

33.8 -4.7

33.8 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 26.6 3.3

4.6 26.3 3.3

4.7 27.2 3.6

5.2 28 3.8

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28 3.3

5.7 26.8 3.1

5.7 25.1 3

5.7 25.1 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 -10.8

2.8 0

2.8 -0.9

2.9 6

2.9 0.1

2.9 -2.6

2.8 -0.3

2.8 -1.3

2.7 -4.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 3.4

7.3 0.7

7.8 5.8

8.4 7.8

8.6 2.4

8.6 0.3

8.2 -5.2

7.4 -9

7.5 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 -2.2

34.7 4.1

37.1 6.8

38.7 4.5

38.4 -1

36.9 -3.9

35 -5.2

30.5 -12.9

29.7 -2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.3 3.5

26.7 5.7

26.8 0.3

27.3 1.8

28.2 3.1

29.3 4

30.5 4.3

30.9 1.1

32.2 4.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.9 0.1

20.2 1.7

21.1 4.4

21.8 3.3

22.5 3.3

22.9 1.5

21.7 -5

20.5 -5.6

20.3 -0.8

7.6 1

8.2 8.4

8.4 1.6

8.1 -2.8

8.1 -0.7

8 -1

8.1 1.2

8 -1.5

8 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -1.8

5.7 1.2

5.9 3.9

6.1 1.8

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.5

6.2 0

6 -2.5

6.1 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 2.9

22.1 2.6

22.9 3.3

22.2 -2.8

22.6 1.7

22.8 1.1

22.8 -0.3

22.6 -0.9

22.5 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13494.4

14169.7

15079.3

16203.7

16685.3

16478.7

16450.1

15717.5

15824

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.4 1.7

504.9 1.9

517 2.4

526.3 1.8

531.4 1

535 0.7

536.7 0.3

537.4 0.1

537.9 0.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

238.7 1.5

242.3 1.5

247.6 2.2

256 3.4

261.7 2.2

264.2 0.9

267.9 1.4

269.4 0.6

270.9 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.3

4.3

6.5

10.7

11.3

6591 5091 1500

6115 5578 537

8212 6313 1899

8487 7206 1281

5346 4370 977

2808 2204 604

1791 1294 498

1218 1001 218

2696 2303 394

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

107


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.1 4.6 9.3 10.8

21.3 6 9.8 11.5

22.6 6.1 10.4 12.2

23.9 5.9 10.9 13

25.4 6.4 11.5 13.9

27 6.2 12.2 14.8

28.7 6.3 12.8 15.9

30.6 6.6 13.5 17.1

32.6 6.8 14.2 18.4

34.9 7 15 20

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.1 2.8

16.7 4.2

17.4 4.2

18.1 4

19 4.5

19.8 4.2

20.6 4.2

21.5 4.5

22.5 4.8

23.7 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

37.1 29.7

39.1 30.7

41 31.7

42.8 32.5

44.9 33.5

47.2 34.5

49.5 35.6

52.1 36.7

54.8 37.8

57.6 39

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.4 2.1

47.5 2.4

48.9 2.9

50.5 3.1

52.1 3.3

53.9 3.3

55.7 3.4

57.6 3.4

59.5 3.4

61.6 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

197.4 2

203.3 3

209.2 2.9

213.9 2.2

218.5 2.2

222.9 2

227 1.8

231.7 2.1

236.2 1.9

240.3 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 2.6

21.7 4.9

22.5 3.9

22.9 1.6

23 0.3

23 0.1

23 0

23 0.1

23 0

22.9 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

176.7 1.9

181.6 2.8

186.7 2.8

191 2.3

195.6 2.4

199.9 2.2

204 2.1

208.7 2.3

213.2 2.1

217.4 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 0.2

11.5 8.6

12.5 8.1

13.3 6.6

13.9 4.8

14.5 3.7

14.9 3.4

15.5 3.8

15.9 2.7

16.3 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.8 0

34.4 1.7

35.6 3.5

36.5 2.5

37.1 1.6

37.4 0.7

37.5 0.3

37.8 0.8

38.2 1.1

38.7 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.8 24.8 3.1

6.2 24.9 3.3

6.5 25.5 3.5

6.7 25.9 3.6

6.9 26.2 3.7

7.1 26.2 3.8

7.2 26.1 3.9

7.4 26.1 4

7.6 26.2 4.1

7.9 26.5 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 3.3

2.8 0.7

2.8 1.4

2.9 1.8

2.9 1.7

3 2.1

3 2

3.1 1.8

3.1 1.7

3.2 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.8

7.7 2.3

7.8 1.4

7.8 0.3

7.9 0.9

8 0.9

8 0.7

8.1 0.7

8.2 1.1

8.3 1.6

32.4 8.9

34.8 7.4

36.3 4.3

37.7 4

39.8 5.5

42 5.6

44.3 5.5

47.1 6.2

49.6 5.3

51.9 4.6

33 2.4

33.3 1.1

33.8 1.3

34.5 2.1

35.4 2.6

36.3 2.6

37.1 2.2

37.9 2

38.6 1.8

39.3 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 -0.2

20.6 1.3

20.8 1

20.8 0.1

20.7 -0.3

20.7 0

20.7 -0.1

20.6 -0.2

20.7 0.1

20.7 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -0.2

7.9 -0.6

7.9 0.1

8 0.7

8 0.3

8 0.3

8 0.2

8 -0.1

8 -0.2

8 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -3.4

5.9 -0.3

5.9 0.1

5.9 0

5.9 0.3

6 0.5

6 0.6

6 0.6

6.1 0.7

6 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 -0.2

22.7 1.2

23.3 2.6

23.6 1.2

23.8 1

24.1 1

24.3 1

24.5 1

24.8 1.1

25.1 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16399.8

17171.2

17828.7

18411.4

19109.8

19773.6

20441.6

21207.2

22011.3

22822.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

540.3 0.5

544.7 0.8

550.7 1.1

558.2 1.4

565.8 1.4

572.5 1.2

579.3 1.2

586.9 1.3

595.9 1.5

606.1 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

272.7 0.6

274.4 0.6

277 0.9

279.7 1

282.9 1.2

286.4 1.2

290 1.2

293.6 1.2

297.2 1.2

300.8 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.4

9.5

8.6

8.1

7.8

7.3

6.8

6.3

5.8

5.3

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4259 3814 446

5322 4695 627

5526 4858 668

5577 4884 693

5872 4943 929

6001 4994 1007

6021 4967 1054

6093 4967 1127

6242 5005 1238

6399 5033 1366

Continued 108

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

37.3 6.9 15.8 21.6

39.8 6.6 16.5 23.2

42.3 6.4 17.4 25

44.9 6.2 18.2 26.7

47.7 6.1 19.2 28.5

50.5 6 20.1 30.4

53.5 5.9 21.2 32.4

56.7 5.9 22.2 34.4

59.9 5.7 23.4 36.5

63.3 5.7 24.6 38.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

24.8 4.9

26 4.7

27.2 4.5

28.3 4.2

29.5 4.2

30.7 4.1

31.9 4

33.1 3.9

34.4 3.7

35.6 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

60.5 40.3

63.4 41.5

66.4 42.6

69.3 43.7

72.3 44.7

75.3 45.8

78.5 46.8

81.8 47.9

85.2 48.9

88.6 49.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

63.8 3.5

65.9 3.4

68.2 3.4

70.4 3.3

72.7 3.2

75 3.3

77.5 3.3

80 3.3

82.6 3.2

85.3 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

244.2 1.6

248.1 1.6

252.1 1.6

256.3 1.7

261 1.8

265.6 1.8

270.4 1.8

275.4 1.8

280.5 1.8

285.5 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 -0.9

22.4 -1.2

22.2 -1

21.9 -1

21.8 -0.8

21.7 -0.5

21.5 -0.6

21.4 -0.6

21.3 -0.5

21.2 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

221.6 1.9

225.7 1.9

230 1.9

234.4 1.9

239.2 2

244 2

248.9 2

254 2.1

259.2 2

264.2 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 2.4

17.1 2.2

17.4 2.2

17.8 2.3

18.3 2.8

18.9 3

19.4 2.6

19.8 2.3

20.2 2.1

20.7 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

39.2 1.3

39.7 1.4

40.3 1.4

40.8 1.4

41.4 1.4

42 1.4

42.5 1.3

43.1 1.3

43.6 1.3

44.1 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.1 26.8 4.2

8.3 27 4.3

8.6 27.3 4.5

8.8 27.5 4.6

9 27.7 4.7

9.2 27.9 4.8

9.4 28.2 4.9

9.5 28.5 5

9.7 28.8 5.1

9.8 29.1 5.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 1.8

3.3 1.9

3.4 2

3.5 2

3.5 2

3.6 2.1

3.7 2.3

3.8 2.4

3.9 2.5

4 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 1.3

8.5 1.2

8.6 0.9

8.7 0.9

8.8 1.2

8.9 1.1

9 1

9.1 1

9.2 1.2

9.3 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

53.8 3.7

55.7 3.7

57.8 3.7

60 3.8

62.4 4.1

64.9 3.9

67.4 3.9

70.2 4.1

73 4

75.5 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.8 1.4

40.4 1.4

41 1.4

41.6 1.5

42.1 1.3

42.7 1.3

43.2 1.4

43.9 1.4

44.5 1.5

45.2 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 0.6

21 0.6

21.1 0.6

21.2 0.7

21.4 0.7

21.5 0.6

21.6 0.6

21.8 0.6

22 0.8

22.1 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 0.9

8.2 1.3

8.3 1.2

8.4 1.1

8.5 1

8.6 1.1

8.7 1.3

8.8 1.3

8.9 1.3

9 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 2.1

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.7

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.7

6.4 0.7

6.4 0.6

6.5 0.6

6.7 3.3

25.3 1.1

25.6 1.1

25.9 1.1

26.1 1

26.4 1.1

26.7 1

26.9 1

27.2 0.9

27.4 0.9

27.6 0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

23667.2

24508.7

25318.6

26140.7

27040.6

27947.1

28851.2

29773.8

30717.3

31686.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

616.5 1.7

627 1.7

637.8 1.7

648.7 1.7

659.5 1.7

670.5 1.7

681.5 1.6

692.4 1.6

703.3 1.6

714.4 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

304.3 1.2

307.8 1.1

311.4 1.2

315.1 1.2

319.1 1.3

323.6 1.4

328.3 1.5

333.1 1.5

338 1.5

342.8 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

6480 4990 1489

6509 4944 1565

6491 4917 1574

6484 4904 1580

6551 4957 1594

6569 4968 1602

6518 4913 1605

6434 4822 1612

6390 4773 1616

6432 4806 1625

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

109


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

66.7 5.4 25.7 41

70.3 5.4 26.8 43.5

74.1 5.3 28.1 46

78.1 5.4 29.3 48.8

82.4 5.5 30.7 51.7

87 5.6 32.1 54.9

92 5.8 33.7 58.3

97.3 5.8 35.5 61.9

103 5.8 37.3 65.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.8 3.4

38.1 3.4

39.4 3.4

40.7 3.4

42.1 3.5

43.7 3.6

45.3 3.8

47 3.8

48.8 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

91.8 50.7

95.3 51.6

98.8 52.5

102.6 53.4

106.6 54.5

110.9 55.6

115.6 56.9

120.6 58.3

125.8 59.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

87.9 3.1

90.8 3.2

93.6 3.1

96.4 3.1

99.4 3.1

102.5 3.1

105.7 3.1

109 3.1

112.3 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

289.3 1.3

293.2 1.3

297.3 1.4

301.8 1.5

306.3 1.5

311.1 1.6

316.8 1.8

323 2

330.1 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 -0.2

21.1 -0.5

21 -0.5

20.9 -0.2

20.9 -0.1

20.9 0

20.9 0.2

21 0.4

21.2 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

268.1 1.5

272.1 1.5

276.3 1.6

280.9 1.6

285.4 1.6

290.2 1.7

295.8 1.9

302 2.1

308.9 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 2.1

21.5 1.7

21.9 1.6

22.2 1.5

22.5 1.4

22.8 1.6

23.3 1.8

23.7 1.8

24.1 1.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

44.6 1

45 1

45.4 0.9

45.8 0.8

46.1 0.7

46.4 0.6

46.8 0.9

47.2 0.8

47.5 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.9 29.4 5.2

10 29.6 5.3

10.1 29.9 5.3

10.1 30.2 5.3

10.2 30.5 5.3

10.2 30.8 5.3

10.3 31.1 5.3

10.4 31.4 5.3

10.4 31.7 5.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 2.3

4.1 2.3

4.2 2.2

4.3 2.3

4.4 2.1

4.5 2.1

4.6 2.4

4.7 2.4

4.9 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 1.2

9.5 1

9.6 1

9.7 1.2

9.8 1.2

9.9 1.1

10.1 1.3

10.2 1.2

10.3 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

77.3 2.5

79.2 2.5

81.5 2.9

84.1 3.2

86.8 3.2

89.9 3.5

93.3 3.8

97.3 4.3

102.2 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.8 1.3

46.3 1.2

46.9 1.2

47.4 1.2

47.9 1

48.4 0.9

48.9 1.1

49.3 1

49.8 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.3 0.8

22.4 0.6

22.6 0.7

22.7 0.5

22.8 0.6

22.9 0.5

23.1 0.8

23.3 0.8

23.5 0.7

9.1 1.2

9.2 1.3

9.3 1

9.4 1.1

9.5 1

9.6 1.1

9.8 1.3

9.9 1.3

10 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -1.9

6.6 0.6

6.6 0.6

6.7 0.6

6.7 0.6

6.8 0.6

6.8 0.6

6.8 0.6

6.9 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.9 0.8

28.1 0.8

28.3 0.8

28.5 0.8

28.7 0.8

29 0.8

29.2 0.9

29.5 0.8

29.7 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

32611.4

33526.6

34508.9

35551.7

36625.2

37742.5

38887.4

40098.2

41401.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

726.4 1.7

738.2 1.6

749.9 1.6

761.6 1.5

773.1 1.5

784.5 1.5

795.9 1.4

807.2 1.4

818.6 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

347.7 1.4

352.6 1.4

357.5 1.4

362.4 1.4

367.3 1.4

372.3 1.3

377.2 1.3

382.2 1.3

387.3 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

110

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

6399 4793 1607

6318 4709 1609

6309 4697 1612

6356 4731 1625

6386 4761 1625

6409 4784 1625

6430 4776 1653

6421 4760 1661

6424 4756 1668


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent MSA is expected to achieve relatively low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas. Personal income is expected to grow 2.3 percent each year on average, the lowest growth in the state. The per capita income level is expected to be at 26.4. The average annual wage rate growth rate should be at 2.1 percent, among the lowest growth rates in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be 39.3. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will see a level of 13,649.55 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to decrease, averaging -0.5 percent each year, tied for the lowest in the state. Unemployment will be at an average rate of 9.7 percent. At 1.9 percent average annual growth, Education and Health Services will be the top sector in Pensacola. Following is the Financial sector, growing on average 0.5 percent each year. All other sectors will see declining rates. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.1 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 452,992 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 302,939 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 150,053 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,821 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,185 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees • University of West Florida – 1,231 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Tanker proposal dropped • Pressures have forced the proposal to split a $40 billion Air Force tanker contract between Boeing and Northrop Grumman to be withdrawn. • The deals would have created approximately 1,500 high-wage jobs in the Pensacola and Mobile areas and would have attracted several hundred parts suppliers to the area. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 5, 2009 PJC will teach green construction technology • Pensacola Junior College has received a green building module courtesy of a SkillsUSA grant from the Lowe’s Charitable Educational Foundation. • The grant is worth $9,741.93 and will provide the means for the school to expand its curriculum to teach PJC students in trade programs about green building technology. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 30, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

111


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Empty spaces where stores once stood • Countless vacated stores mark the streets of the Pensacola area as the economic climate takes its toll on all areas of local business. • Pensacola is trying to find a way to handle the mounting inventory as well as the out-of-business stores and office buildings. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 31, 2009 Artificial reef projects benefit entire community • Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties are working together on artificial reef projects. • These projects are expected to enhance local tourism and the fishing industry, serve to reduce flooding and coastal erosion, and provide sheltered anchorage for shipping vessels and small boats. • Escambia County has already received permits for two near-shore sites. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 3, 2009 Housing drop creates budget shortfall • The city of Pensacola’s budget already has a $382,000 shortfall for next year due to the $84.2 million drop in the value of taxable property. • This shortfall will occur if property tax rates remain at their current level. • The government is faced with either changing the tax rate, coming up with additional revenue, or making a reduction to the general fund. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 4, 2009

112

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.6

Pensacola Payroll Employment 240.0

6.0%

180.0

4.0%

160.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

140.0

(Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Pensacola Payroll Employment

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

20000.0

2.0%

15000.0

0.0%

10000.0 5000.0

1.2

200.0

8.0%

30000.0

1

220.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

-2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

113


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.3 -1.6 6.6 7.7

14.2 -2.1 6.6 7.6

14.2 -1.3 6.6 7.7

14.3 -0.3 6.6 7.7

14.4 0.7 6.7 7.8

14.6 2.5 6.7 7.9

14.7 2.9 6.7 7.9

14.8 3.3 6.8 8

14.9 3.5 6.8 8.1

15.1 3.9 6.9 8.2

15.3 4.3 6.9 8.3

15.5 4.7 7 8.5

15.7 5.2 7.1 8.6

15.9 5.5 7.2 8.8

16.1 5.6 7.3 8.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 -1.3

11.7 -0.6

11.7 -1.2

11.7 -0.8

11.8 -0.3

11.8 1.1

11.9 1.3

11.9 1.6

12 1.7

12.1 2

12.2 2.4

12.3 2.8

12.4 3.4

12.5 3.6

12.6 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31.6 26

31.2 25.8

31.3 25.8

31.5 25.9

31.7 25.9

32 26.1

32.3 26.1

32.6 26.3

32.9 26.4

33.2 26.6

33.6 26.7

34 26.9

34.4 27.2

34.9 27.4

35.3 27.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.2 3.2

38.4 2.7

38.5 2.2

38.7 2.2

38.9 1.8

39.1 1.8

39.2 1.7

39.4 1.7

39.6 1.7

39.7 1.7

39.9 1.7

40.1 1.7

40.3 1.8

40.5 2.1

40.8 2.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

159.5 -5.2

158.5 -4.9

158.1 -4.1

158 -3.2

158.6 -0.5

158.5 0

158.7 0.4

159.1 0.7

159.8 0.7

160.5 1.2

161.3 1.6

162.1 1.8

163.2 2.1

164.2 2.3

165.2 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -12.1

5.5 -15.2

5.4 -13.8

5.3 -12.3

5.3 -9.2

5.3 -5

5.3 -1.8

5.3 -0.2

5.3 1.5

5.4 2.2

5.4 3.1

5.5 3.7

5.5 4

5.6 3.9

5.6 3.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

153.7 -4.9

152.9 -4.5

152.7 -3.7

152.7 -2.9

153.4 -0.2

153.3 0.2

153.4 0.5

153.8 0.7

154.4 0.7

155.1 1.2

155.8 1.6

156.6 1.8

157.7 2.1

158.6 2.3

159.5 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11 -15.6

10.8 -14

10.5 -12.8

10.2 -12.1

10 -9.8

9.8 -9.2

9.7 -7.2

9.7 -5.3

9.8 -1.9

9.9 1.7

10.1 4

10.3 6.6

10.6 8

10.8 8.5

11 8.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32 -1.9

31.8 -1.6

31.8 -0.3

31.9 -1.6

31.9 -0.2

31.9 0.3

31.9 0.2

31.9 0

31.8 -0.3

31.8 -0.2

32 0.3

32.1 0.8

32.4 1.7

32.6 2.3

32.8 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.1 21.1 4.8

6 21.1 4.8

6 21 4.8

6 21.1 4.8

6 21.2 4.8

6 21.2 4.8

6 21.1 4.8

6 21 4.8

6 20.8 4.9

6.1 20.7 4.9

6.2 20.8 5

6.2 20.8 5.1

6.3 20.9 5.1

6.4 20.9 5.2

6.5 21 5.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -7.3

3.2 -8.4

3.2 -6.5

3.1 -6.1

3 -6.4

3 -4.8

3.1 -1.7

3.2 1.8

3.2 4.5

3.2 4.2

3.2 2.1

3.2 0.5

3.2 -0.2

3.2 0

3.2 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 -0.8

8.8 -0.8

8.9 -0.7

8.9 -0.1

8.9 0.4

8.8 0.3

8.8 -0.3

8.8 -0.4

8.9 0

8.9 0.7

8.9 1.2

9 1.5

9 1.8

9.1 2

9.1 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 -20

16.7 -19.5

16.6 -17.8

16.6 -13.6

16.8 -0.8

17 1.5

17.4 4.6

17.8 7.3

18.2 8.8

18.6 9.3

18.9 8.5

19.2 7.8

19.6 7.3

19.9 6.9

20.1 6.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 0.2

28.5 1.8

28.7 2

29 3.2

29.4 4.1

29.7 4.3

29.8 4

29.8 2.8

30 2.1

30.2 1.7

30.2 1.4

30.2 1.1

30.3 0.8

30.3 0.5

30.4 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 -0.8

17.4 -0.5

17.4 -0.3

17.3 -1.5

17.3 -1

17.3 -0.5

17.2 -0.8

17.2 -0.7

17.2 -0.5

17.2 -0.3

17.3 0.5

17.4 1

17.4 1.2

17.5 1.5

17.6 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 -5.3

7.1 -4.4

7.1 -2.9

7.2 -0.4

7.1 0

7.1 0.7

7.1 -0.2

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.2

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.6

7.1 -0.9

7.1 -0.8

7.1 -0.6

6.6 0.1

6.4 -0.8

6.4 -1.1

6.4 -2.1

6.9 5.2

6.5 1.9

6.4 -0.8

6.3 -0.8

6.3 -8.5

6.3 -3.9

6.3 -1.5

6.3 -1.1

6.3 -0.7

6.3 -0.4

6.3 -0.2

22.3 -1.1

22.2 -2.3

22.1 -2.7

22.1 -1.1

22.1 -0.9

22 -0.9

21.9 -1.1

21.9 -0.9

21.9 -1

21.8 -0.8

21.8 -0.5

21.8 -0.4

21.9 0.3

22 0.8

22.1 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13207.3

13183

13192.2

13204.6

13292.3

13372.9

13471.4

13550.2

13669.9

13795

13921.2

14051

14210.4

14348.5

14473.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

454.2 0.3

454.4 0.2

454.4 0.1

454.4 0.1

454.4 0

454.3 0

454.2 -0.1

454.2 0

454.4 0

454.8 0.1

455.2 0.2

455.8 0.3

456.3 0.4

456.9 0.5

457.6 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

211.2 1.7

210.8 0.9

210.6 -0.1

210.7 -0.5

210.9 -0.1

211.2 0.2

211.4 0.4

211.6 0.4

211.6 0.3

211.7 0.2

211.7 0.1

211.8 0.1

212.1 0.2

212.3 0.3

212.6 0.4

9.9

10.3

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.5

10.2

10

9.7

9.5

9.3

9.1

8.8

8.5

8.2

594 519 75

654 606 48

847 768 79

1089 995 94

1276 1177 99

1498 1388 109

1699 1583 116

1921 1807 114

2136 2019 116

2295 2174 121

2427 2299 128

2533 2388 145

2675 2514 161

2781 2602 179

2815 2623 191

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily *Quarterly at an annual rate

114

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6

11.7 7.4 5.8 6

12.6 7 6.1 6.4

13.6 8.4 6.6 7

14.2 4 6.8 7.4

14.5 2.1 6.7 7.7

14.3 -1.2 6.6 7.7

14.5 1.4 6.7 7.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 1.8

10.3 2.1

10.8 4.7

11.3 4

11.9 5.4

12 1.4

11.9 -1.2

11.8 -0.9

11.8 0.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.5 23.7

25.1 23.8

26.6 24.6

28.2 25.3

30.2 26.3

31.3 26.6

31.9 26.2

31.4 25.9

31.9 26

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 1

30.7 3.1

32.5 5.9

33.7 3.7

35.4 5

36.2 2.2

37.2 3

38.3 2.8

39 1.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

155.4 -0.3

159.3 2.5

163.7 2.8

169.5 3.5

173.9 2.6

174 0.1

167.4 -3.8

159.8 -4.5

158.5 -0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 -7.1

7.4 1.1

7.3 -1.3

7.5 3.1

7.4 -1.4

7 -5.2

6.5 -7.3

5.7 -12.8

5.3 -7.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

148.1 0.1

151.9 2.5

156.4 3

161.9 3.6

166.5 2.8

167 0.3

160.9 -3.6

154.1 -4.2

153.2 -0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 -13.4

10.8 -2.8

11.6 7.8

13.9 19.4

15.4 10.4

14.8 -3.9

12.8 -13.4

11 -14.1

9.9 -9.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 0.2

30.2 1

31.2 3.1

33.1 6.1

33 -0.2

33.8 2.5

32.5 -3.9

32 -1.6

31.9 -0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 20.5 4.1

5.3 20.8 4.1

5.6 21.1 4.5

6.2 21.9 5

6.2 21.8 5

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.2 21.5 4.9

6.1 21.2 4.8

6 21.1 4.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 13.6

4.1 -2

3.9 -4.5

3.8 -4.7

3.8 0.7

3.6 -5.7

3.5 -2.5

3.2 -7.1

3.1 -4.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 -6

6.8 4.6

7.5 9.8

8.2 9.9

8.9 8.4

9.2 3.1

8.9 -3.3

8.8 -0.4

8.9 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 5.4

20.1 4.6

21.6 7.2

23.1 7.1

23.2 0.5

22.3 -4.2

20.9 -6.1

17.4 -16.8

16.9 -2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.3 4.6

26.8 6.2

26.7 -0.4

26 -2.9

27.5 5.9

28.7 4.3

28.1 -2

28.4 1

29.5 3.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.7 -0.2

16.6 6.1

17.4 4.7

17.3 -0.9

17.7 2.5

17.7 0

17.6 -0.2

17.4 -1

17.3 -0.9

7.7 2.9

7.9 2.6

7.9 0.9

7.8 -1.6

7.8 0

7.8 -0.4

7.5 -3.8

7.1 -4.5

7.1 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 -6.2

6.9 -0.5

6.7 -2.2

6.7 -0.5

6.7 0.4

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.7

6.5 -0.7

6.5 1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -0.8

21.6 0

21.8 0.9

22.2 2

22.5 1.4

22.7 1.1

22.6 -0.5

22.2 -1.7

22 -1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

11700.1

12289.4

12823

13646.3

14094.7

14076.2

13853.8

13257.9

13335.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

428.3 1.7

434.2 1.4

440.3 1.4

445.4 1.2

450.4 1.1

451.6 0.3

453.2 0.3

454.3 0.2

454.3 0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

187 0.2

190.7 2

194 1.7

199.8 3

204.6 2.4

208.3 1.8

208.3 0

211.1 1.4

211.1 0

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

4.8

4.6

3.8

3.1

3.8

5.8

10

10.5

3141 2955 186

4426 3558 868

4713 3629 1083

3764 3285 479

2765 2325 440

2472 1778 694

1414 1203 210

815 710 105

1390 1286 105

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

115


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15 3.8 6.9 8.2

15.8 5.2 7.1 8.7

16.7 5.4 7.5 9.2

17.5 5.3 7.8 9.8

18.6 5.7 8.1 10.4

19.6 5.4 8.5 11.1

20.6 5.4 8.8 11.8

21.8 5.7 9.2 12.6

23.1 5.9 9.6 13.5

24.5 6 10 14.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12 1.9

12.4 3.4

12.9 3.4

13.3 3.5

13.8 3.9

14.3 3.5

14.8 3.4

15.3 3.6

15.9 3.9

16.6 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.1 26.5

34.6 27.3

36.3 28

37.9 28.7

39.7 29.6

41.4 30.3

43.2 31

45.2 31.8

47.4 32.7

49.8 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.6 1.7

40.4 2

41.4 2.5

42.6 2.7

43.8 2.9

45.1 2.9

46.4 3

47.8 3

49.2 3

50.7 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

160.2 1.1

163.7 2.2

167.4 2.3

170.3 1.7

173 1.6

175.4 1.3

177.5 1.2

179.9 1.4

182.1 1.2

184.1 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 1.7

5.6 3.8

5.7 2.9

5.8 0.9

5.8 -0.1

5.7 -0.6

5.7 -0.7

5.7 -0.6

5.6 -0.7

5.6 -1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

154.8 1

158.1 2.1

161.7 2.3

164.6 1.8

167.3 1.7

169.6 1.4

171.8 1.3

174.2 1.4

176.5 1.3

178.5 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 -0.4

10.7 7.9

11.5 7.4

12.1 5.9

12.6 4

13 2.9

13.3 2.6

13.7 3

14 1.9

14.2 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.9 -0.1

32.5 1.8

33.5 3.3

34.3 2.2

34.7 1.3

34.8 0.4

34.8 0

35 0.5

35.2 0.7

35.5 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.1 20.8 4.9

6.4 20.9 5.2

6.7 21.3 5.4

6.8 21.7 5.6

6.9 21.9 5.7

7 21.8 5.8

7.1 21.6 6

7.2 21.6 6.1

7.3 21.6 6.2

7.5 21.7 6.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 3.1

3.2 0.1

3.2 1.2

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.3

3.3 1.6

3.4 1.5

3.4 1.3

3.5 1.2

3.5 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 0.4

9 1.8

9.1 0.9

9.1 -0.2

9.1 0.4

9.2 0.4

9.2 0.2

9.2 0.2

9.3 0.5

9.4 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 8.5

19.7 7.1

20.5 3.9

21.2 3.6

22.3 5.3

23.5 5.3

24.8 5.3

26.2 6

27.6 5.1

28.8 4.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 2

30.3 0.7

30.5 0.9

31.1 1.7

31.7 1.9

32.2 1.8

32.7 1.5

33.1 1.2

33.4 0.9

33.7 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 -0.3

17.5 1.3

17.6 0.8

17.6 0.1

17.5 -0.5

17.5 -0.2

17.5 -0.3

17.4 -0.4

17.3 -0.2

17.4 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.7

7.1 0

7.1 0.6

7.1 0.1

7.1 0.1

7.1 0

7.1 -0.2

7.1 -0.4

7.1 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 -3.8

6.3 -0.6

6.2 -0.3

6.2 -0.3

6.2 0

6.2 0.1

6.2 0.2

6.2 0.1

6.3 0.2

6.1 -1.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 -0.8

22 0.6

22.4 2

22.6 0.7

22.6 0.3

22.7 0.2

22.7 0.2

22.8 0.2

22.8 0.2

22.9 0.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13734.1

14270.9

14711.5

15103.8

15599.7

16062

16525.5

17054.3

17598.4

18141.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

454.7 0.1

456.6 0.4

459.7 0.7

463.6 0.8

467.8 0.9

472.4 1

477 1

481.7 1

486.5 1

491.3 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

211.7 0.3

212.2 0.3

213.5 0.6

214.7 0.6

216.2 0.7

217.9 0.8

219.7 0.8

221.4 0.8

223.1 0.8

224.6 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.6

8.7

7.7

7.2

6.9

6.4

5.9

5.4

5

4.6

2195 2075 120

2701 2532 169

2799 2617 182

2806 2619 187

2885 2640 245

2913 2646 268

2888 2606 282

2873 2575 297

2913 2583 330

2951 2588 363

Continued 116

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.9 5.9 10.4 15.5

27.4 5.6 10.8 16.6

28.9 5.4 11.2 17.7

30.4 5.2 11.6 18.7

31.9 5.1 12.1 19.8

33.5 5.1 12.6 21

35.2 5 13.1 22.2

37 5 13.6 23.4

38.7 4.8 14.1 24.6

40.6 4.8 14.7 25.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 4

17.9 3.8

18.5 3.5

19.1 3.3

19.8 3.2

20.4 3.2

21 3

21.6 3

22.2 2.8

22.8 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

52.2 34.8

54.7 35.7

57.1 36.6

59.5 37.5

62 38.4

64.6 39.2

67.2 40.1

70 40.9

72.8 41.8

75.7 42.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.3 3.1

53.9 3

55.5 3

57.1 2.9

58.7 2.8

60.4 2.9

62.1 2.9

63.9 2.9

65.7 2.8

67.6 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

186.1 1.1

188 1

189.9 1

191.9 1

194 1.1

196.1 1.1

198.3 1.1

200.6 1.1

202.9 1.1

205.2 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 -1.6

5.4 -2.1

5.3 -1.9

5.2 -1.8

5.1 -1.7

5 -1.4

4.9 -1.4

4.9 -1.4

4.8 -1.3

4.8 -1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

180.6 1.1

182.6 1.1

184.6 1.1

186.7 1.1

188.9 1.2

191.1 1.2

193.4 1.2

195.7 1.2

198.1 1.2

200.4 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 1.6

14.7 1.5

14.9 1.5

15.1 1.5

15.4 2

15.7 2.2

16 1.8

16.2 1.4

16.4 1.3

16.7 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.7 0.7

36 0.7

36.3 0.8

36.6 0.8

36.8 0.7

37.1 0.7

37.3 0.6

37.5 0.6

37.7 0.5

37.9 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

7.7 21.8 6.3

7.8 21.8 6.4

7.9 21.9 6.5

8 22 6.6

8.1 22 6.7

8.2 22 6.8

8.3 22 6.9

8.4 22.1 6.9

8.4 22.2 7

8.5 22.2 7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 1.2

3.6 1.3

3.7 1.4

3.7 1.5

3.8 1.4

3.8 1.6

3.9 1.7

4 1.9

4 2

4.1 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 0.7

9.5 0.7

9.5 0.4

9.6 0.4

9.6 0.7

9.7 0.6

9.7 0.5

9.8 0.5

9.8 0.7

9.9 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 3.6

30.9 3.5

31.9 3.4

33 3.5

34.3 3.8

35.5 3.7

36.9 3.7

38.3 3.9

39.7 3.7

40.9 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 0.6

34.2 0.6

34.4 0.6

34.6 0.6

34.8 0.5

34.9 0.5

35.1 0.6

35.3 0.6

35.6 0.7

35.8 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.4 0.1

17.4 0.3

17.5 0.2

17.5 0.1

17.5 0.1

17.5 0

17.5 0.1

17.5 0.1

17.6 0.3

17.6 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 0.7

7.2 1.2

7.3 1.1

7.4 0.9

7.4 0.8

7.5 1

7.6 1.2

7.7 1.2

7.8 1.2

7.9 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.2

6.3 0.2

6.3 0.1

6.3 0.1

6.3 0

6.3 0.1

6.3 0.1

6.3 0.1

6.5 2.7

22.9 0.2

23 0.2

23 0.2

23 0.1

23.1 0.1

23.1 0.1

23.1 0.1

23.1 0.1

23.1 0

23.1 0

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

18704.5

19254

19769.6

20284.1

20842.5

21395.9

21943.9

22499.6

23062.3

23632.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

496.1 1

500.8 1

505.6 1

510.4 0.9

515 0.9

519.6 0.9

524 0.8

528.2 0.8

532.3 0.8

536.2 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

225.9 0.6

227.2 0.6

228.6 0.6

229.9 0.6

231.5 0.7

233.4 0.8

235.4 0.9

237.5 0.9

239.5 0.9

241.5 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

2925 2543 382

2899 2506 394

2856 2473 383

2835 2457 378

2861 2486 375

2867 2493 375

2834 2460 374

2779 2407 372

2749 2379 370

2765 2396 369

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

117


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

42.4 4.6 15.2 27.3

44.4 4.6 15.7 28.7

46.4 4.5 16.2 30.2

48.5 4.5 16.8 31.7

50.7 4.6 17.3 33.4

53.1 4.7 17.9 35.1

55.7 4.9 18.6 37

58.4 4.9 19.3 39

61.2 4.8 20.1 41.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 2.6

24 2.6

24.6 2.5

25.3 2.6

25.9 2.6

26.6 2.7

27.4 2.9

28.2 2.9

29 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

78.6 43.4

81.6 44.2

84.7 45

88 45.9

91.6 46.8

95.3 47.8

99.5 49

103.8 50.1

108.3 51.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.5 2.7

71.4 2.8

73.3 2.7

75.3 2.7

77.3 2.7

79.4 2.7

81.6 2.7

83.8 2.7

86 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

206.6 0.7

208.1 0.7

209.6 0.7

211.2 0.8

212.9 0.8

214.7 0.8

217 1.1

219.5 1.2

222.4 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -1.1

4.6 -1.3

4.6 -1.3

4.5 -1.1

4.5 -1

4.4 -0.9

4.4 -0.7

4.4 -0.4

4.4 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

201.9 0.7

203.4 0.8

205 0.8

206.7 0.8

208.4 0.8

210.2 0.9

212.6 1.1

215.1 1.2

218 1.3

16.9 1.2

17.1 0.9

17.2 0.8

17.3 0.7

17.4 0.6

17.5 0.8

17.7 1

17.9 1

18.1 1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38 0.3

38 0.2

38 0

38 -0.1

37.9 -0.2

37.9 -0.2

37.9 0.1

37.9 -0.1

37.8 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.5 22.3 7

8.4 22.3 7

8.4 22.4 7

8.4 22.4 6.9

8.3 22.5 6.8

8.3 22.5 6.8

8.3 22.6 6.7

8.2 22.6 6.6

8.2 22.7 6.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 1.8

4.3 1.7

4.3 1.7

4.4 1.7

4.5 1.6

4.5 1.6

4.6 1.9

4.7 1.9

4.8 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10 0.6

10 0.4

10.1 0.5

10.1 0.7

10.2 0.7

10.3 0.6

10.4 0.7

10.4 0.7

10.5 0.6

41.8 2.2

42.8 2.2

43.9 2.6

45.2 2.9

46.5 3

48 3.2

49.7 3.6

51.8 4.1

54.2 4.7

36 0.5

36.2 0.5

36.3 0.4

36.4 0.4

36.5 0.2

36.6 0.2

36.7 0.3

36.8 0.2

36.8 0.1

17.7 0.3

17.7 0.1

17.7 0.1

17.7 0

17.7 0.1

17.7 0

17.8 0.3

17.8 0.3

17.9 0.2

8 1.1

8 1.1

8.1 0.9

8.2 0.9

8.3 0.9

8.3 1

8.4 1.2

8.5 1.2

8.6 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 -2.4

6.3 0

6.3 0

6.3 0

6.3 0

6.3 0

6.3 0

6.3 0

6.3 -0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 -0.1

23.1 -0.1

23.1 0

23 -0.1

23 -0.1

23 0

23 0

23 0

23 -0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

24158.4

24673.9

25225.1

25807.5

26404.2

27023.5

27658.1

28322.2

29026.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

540 0.7

543.7 0.7

547.2 0.6

550.6 0.6

553.7 0.6

556.8 0.6

559.8 0.5

562.5 0.5

565.1 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

243.5 0.8

245.5 0.8

247.5 0.8

249.4 0.8

251.3 0.8

253.2 0.8

255.1 0.7

256.9 0.7

258.9 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

118

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

2749 2388 361

2697 2340 357

2684 2332 352

2700 2349 351

2712 2366 346

2720 2379 342

2720 2377 343

2710 2370 340

2707 2370 337


Ta l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 357,259 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,560 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,547 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 264,063 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 31,089 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 190,097 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 6.4% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,163 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,500 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center – 878 employees • ACS (Affiliated Computer Services) – 852 employees

• Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center – 672 employees • Capital City Bank Group – 626 employees Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES)

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. The area should see personal income growth averaging 2.6 percent each year, while per capita income levels should average 27.0 each year. Average annual wage is expected to grow 2.4 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 40.6. Population growth will be at 0.7 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will see a level of 12,453.70 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to decrease, averaging -0.5 percent each year, tied for the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 7.6 percent, the second-lowest unemployment rate in the state. Education and Health Services will be the leading sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.0 percent annually. The Leisure sector will follow with 0.1 percent average annual growth. Professional and Business Services will come in third, with zero growth. All other sectors will see declining rates. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.4 percent.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Pons grateful, uneasy over stimulus money • Leon County Schools will receive $11 million in education stimulus money from the $1.8 billion granted to the state of Florida. • Leon County Superintendent Jackie Pons is concerned the state will fail to create a plan to properly fund public education when federal money runs out in two years. • Wakulla County School District is set to receive about $4.5 million; Gadsden County will save 50 jobs with help from their $3.5 million in stimulus; and Jefferson County will create 10 to 12 jobs due to $955,000 in stimulus. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 15, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

119


Ta l l aha s s ee

City of Tallahassee banks on fast-tracking project to stimulate the economy

State budget includes nearly $500 million for Leon County projects

• The Local Economic Emergency Fast Tracking Program temporarily changed the permitting and procurement process to stimulate business activity.

• Florida’s $66.5 billion budget allocated $497.9 million for Leon County, $8.9 million for Gadsden County, and $5.5 million for Wakulla County to be used in road building, higher education, and transportation.

• City officials identified nearly three dozen publicsector projects in which private contractors will be doing the majority of work. • About $3.6 million has been directed to local contractors for their work in public-sector projects. An additional $9 million will end the procurement process this month. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 18, 2009 City of Tallahassee breaks ground on treatment plant • The system will be built at the T.P. Smith Water Reclamation Facility over the next six years at a cost of more than $200 million. The project will generate more than 200 new jobs. • Set to be the largest of its kind in the region, the new advanced wastewater treatment plant will further reduce nitrogen and phosphorus levels in treated wastewater, which helps protect the region’s water sources, such as Wakulla Springs. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 21, 2009

• Leon County’s share includes $23.7 million in capital-project money for FSU, FAMU, and TCC. • Other projects include $2.2 million for the widening of I-10, $6.3 million for resurfacing U.S. 90 in Gadsden County and $2.6 million for two bicycle/pedestrian paths in Wakulla County. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 24, 2009 County shelves idea of raising fuel tax • The Leon County Commission voted 6-1 to cancel their June 9 meeting and, as a result, discounted the idea to submit an application for implementation of a higher tax. • A supporter argues raising the tax is unavoidable but now will not be the appropriate time considering the recent announcement that 600 state employees will be laid off. • The tax would have brought $2.75 million in revenue to the city; implementation plans were not clear. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 27, 2009

120

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Ta l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 240.0

(Thousands)

220.0

10.0%

200.0

8.0% 6.0%

180.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

140.0

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

20000.0

2.0%

15000.0

0.0%

10000.0 5000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

121


Ta l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.7 -0.9 6.7 5

11.6 -1.6 6.7 4.9

11.6 -0.6 6.7 4.9

11.7 0.1 6.8 4.9

11.8 1.1 6.8 5

11.9 2.7 6.8 5.1

12 3.1 6.9 5.1

12.1 3.5 6.9 5.2

12.2 3.7 7 5.3

12.4 3.9 7 5.3

12.5 4.2 7.1 5.4

12.7 4.5 7.2 5.5

12.9 5 7.3 5.6

13 5.3 7.3 5.7

13.2 5.5 7.4 5.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -0.6

9.6 0

9.6 -0.5

9.6 -0.4

9.6 0.1

9.7 1.3

9.7 1.5

9.8 1.8

9.8 1.9

9.9 2

9.9 2.3

10 2.7

10.1 3.2

10.2 3.5

10.3 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.3 26.7

32.1 26.5

32.1 26.4

32.3 26.5

32.5 26.5

32.7 26.6

33 26.7

33.3 26.9

33.6 27

33.9 27.1

34.2 27.2

34.6 27.4

35.1 27.7

35.5 27.9

35.9 28

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.1 3.3

39.3 2.9

39.6 2.6

39.8 2.7

40 2.2

40.2 2.3

40.4 2.2

40.7 2.2

40.9 2.2

41.1 2.1

41.3 2.1

41.5 2.1

41.8 2.3

42.1 2.5

42.4 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

170.5 -4

169.6 -4.1

169.3 -2.9

169.3 -2.7

169.4 -0.6

169.4 -0.2

169.4 0

169.7 0.3

170.1 0.4

170.6 0.7

171 1

171.6 1.1

172.7 1.5

173.6 1.8

174.6 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4 -9.4

3.8 -11.4

3.7 -12.8

3.7 -11.9

3.6 -8.3

3.6 -4.2

3.7 -0.9

3.7 0.7

3.7 2.2

3.8 3.2

3.8 3.9

3.9 4.5

3.9 4.7

3.9 4.5

4 4.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

166.5 -3.8

165.8 -3.9

165.6 -2.7

165.6 -2.5

165.8 -0.4

165.7 -0.1

165.7 0

166 0.3

166.4 0.4

166.8 0.7

167.2 0.9

167.8 1

168.8 1.4

169.7 1.7

170.6 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -16.4

7.2 -14.2

7 -12.7

6.8 -12.1

6.6 -10.2

6.5 -9.5

6.5 -7.6

6.4 -5.7

6.5 -2.2

6.6 1.4

6.7 4.1

6.9 6.5

7 7.9

7.1 8.3

7.3 8.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 -7.6

22.8 -5.2

22.8 -1.7

22.9 -1.7

22.9 -0.2

22.9 0.4

22.9 0.2

22.8 -0.1

22.7 -0.6

22.7 -0.8

22.8 -0.3

22.9 0.1

23 1

23.1 1.7

23.2 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 17.5 2

3.4 17.5 2

3.4 17.4 2

3.4 17.5 2

3.4 17.5 2

3.4 17.5 2

3.4 17.5 2

3.4 17.4 2

3.4 17.2 2

3.5 17.1 2.1

3.5 17.2 2.1

3.5 17.2 2.1

3.6 17.2 2.1

3.6 17.3 2.2

3.7 17.3 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 -13.7

3.3 -11.7

3.3 -9

3.2 -6

3.2 -6.4

3.2 -4.8

3.2 -1.8

3.3 1.7

3.3 4.6

3.3 4.3

3.3 2.3

3.3 0.4

3.3 -0.4

3.3 -0.2

3.3 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 -6.5

7.6 -4.7

7.6 -2.1

7.7 -0.3

7.7 0.3

7.6 0.2

7.6 -0.4

7.6 -0.5

7.6 -0.2

7.7 0.5

7.7 1.1

7.7 1.4

7.8 1.6

7.8 1.8

7.8 1.7

16.6 -15.4

16.5 -16.4

16.4 -16.4

16.4 -13.4

16.5 -0.6

16.7 1.6

17.1 4.5

17.6 7.1

17.9 8.7

18.3 9.1

18.5 8.2

18.9 7.6

19.2 7.4

19.6 7.1

19.8 6.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 1.3

19.3 2.4

19.4 1.5

19.7 3

19.9 3.9

20.1 4

20.2 3.8

20.2 2.6

20.3 2

20.4 1.5

20.4 1.3

20.4 1

20.4 0.7

20.5 0.4

20.5 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 1.5

16.5 0.4

16.5 0.6

16.5 -1.4

16.5 -0.9

16.5 -0.5

16.4 -0.9

16.3 -0.8

16.4 -0.6

16.4 -0.4

16.4 0.3

16.5 0.7

16.5 0.9

16.6 1.1

16.6 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 -1.7

9.2 -2

9.3 -1.2

9.3 -0.2

9.3 0.4

9.3 1.1

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.2

9.3 0.2

9.3 0

9.3 0.1

9.3 -0.3

9.3 -0.7

9.3 -0.7

9.3 -0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -2.8

1.9 -4.3

1.9 -4.2

1.9 0

2.1 6.9

2 2.8

1.9 -0.7

1.9 -1

1.9 -8.4

1.9 -3.9

1.9 -1

1.9 -0.8

1.9 -0.4

1.9 -0.1

1.9 0.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

61.6 0.9

61.5 -0.9

61.4 0.7

61.3 -0.8

61.2 -0.7

61 -0.8

60.7 -1.1

60.6 -1.1

60.4 -1.2

60.3 -1.1

60.1 -0.9

60.1 -0.8

60.4 0

60.6 0.5

61 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12068.9

12047.8

12062.4

12079.5

12156.2

12217.6

12299.4

12363.7

12464.7

12571.5

12678.9

12792.4

12932.3

13054.4

13167.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

360.8 1

361.6 0.9

362.2 0.9

362.8 0.7

363.2 0.7

363.5 0.5

363.9 0.4

364.1 0.4

364.4 0.3

364.8 0.3

365.3 0.4

365.9 0.5

366.4 0.6

367.1 0.6

367.8 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

186.4 0.2

185.4 -1.7

185 -1.7

184.8 -1.4

184.9 -0.8

185.1 -0.2

185.4 0.3

185.7 0.5

185.8 0.5

185.9 0.4

186.1 0.4

186.3 0.3

186.7 0.5

187 0.6

187.4 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.6

8

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.2

8

7.8

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

6.9

6.7

6.5

831 495 336

851 537 315

998 648 350

1154 810 344

1290 956 334

1419 1127 292

1565 1286 278

1745 1471 274

1906 1645 261

2028 1772 256

2131 1866 265

2205 1926 279

2329 2018 311

2433 2081 352

2482 2091 391

*Quarterly at an annual rate

122

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3

9.5 8.4 5.8 3.7

10.2 7.4 6.1 4.1

10.8 6.3 6.4 4.4

11.4 5.2 6.7 4.7

11.7 3 6.8 5

11.6 -0.6 6.7 4.9

11.9 1.8 6.8 5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 0.7

8.3 1.6

8.7 5.6

9.1 4.4

9.4 3.4

9.7 2.6

9.6 -0.3

9.6 -0.3

9.7 0.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

25.7 24.8

26.2 24.8

28 25.9

29.7 26.6

31 27.1

32.2 27.3

32.8 26.9

32.3 26.6

32.6 26.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

32.2 2.9

32.8 2.1

34.2 4.2

35 2.3

35.9 2.7

37.2 3.4

38.1 2.5

39.2 2.9

40.1 2.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

164.4 -0.9

165.7 0.8

168.2 1.5

172.8 2.8

177 2.4

179 1.1

176.9 -1.2

170.9 -3.4

169.3 -0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -6.6

4.1 -0.6

4.2 2

4.2 0.8

4.4 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.4 -4.8

3.9 -10.2

3.7 -6.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.2 -0.8

161.6 0.8

163.9 1.5

168.5 2.8

172.5 2.4

174.4 1.1

172.5 -1.1

167 -3.2

165.7 -0.8

7.2 3.5

7.7 7.1

8.3 8.6

9.4 12.4

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3

8.6 -9.6

7.3 -14.8

6.6 -9.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 -3.1

23.5 0.5

24.6 4.4

25.4 3.4

25.6 0.9

25.3 -1.2

24.2 -4.4

22.9 -5.2

22.9 -0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 18.1 2.1

3 18.5 2

3.3 19.1 2.1

3.6 19.3 2.5

3.7 19.4 2.4

3.8 19.2 2.4

3.6 18.5 2.1

3.5 17.5 2

3.4 17.5 2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4 -13.4

3.8 -3.8

4 4.6

4.1 1.9

3.9 -4.7

4 2.6

3.8 -3.7

3.4 -12

3.2 -4.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 7.4

7.7 3

7.6 -0.7

8 4.8

8.3 4.4

8.2 -1.9

8 -1.8

7.6 -4.8

7.6 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 -2.7

18.2 -0.1

18.2 -0.2

19.2 5.5

20.1 4.9

19.9 -1.1

19.6 -1.2

17.1 -13

16.7 -2.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 -1.8

16.7 1.1

16.4 -1.7

16.8 2.7

17.4 3.4

18.1 3.9

18.9 4.5

19.2 1.8

19.9 3.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 3.2

13.6 1.6

14.4 6.1

15.6 8.3

16.2 3.3

16.7 3.7

16.5 -1.7

16.6 0.8

16.4 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -0.2

7.8 -3.7

8 2.8

8 -0.6

8.5 5.8

9 5.9

9.4 5.1

9.3 -1.6

9.3 0.4

1.9 2.2

2 3

1.9 -3.3

1.9 0

1.9 -1.7

1.9 0

2 4

1.9 -2.8

2 2.2

60.1 -0.5

60.6 0.8

60.5 -0.1

60.1 -0.5

60.8 1.2

61.8 1.6

61.5 -0.6

61.6 0.2

61 -0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

10558.2

10979.7

11432.6

12161.7

12502.2

12627

12665.4

12120.2

12188.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

328.3 1.1

333.2 1.5

337.5 1.3

342.3 1.4

348.1 1.7

353.8 1.6

357.7 1.1

361.2 1

363.3 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

171 -0.1

172 0.6

171.8 -0.1

175.6 2.2

180.6 2.8

184.6 2.2

187.1 1.3

186 -0.5

185 -0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.2

2.8

3.2

4.7

7.7

8.2

2661 2177 483

3822 2424 1398

3382 2131 1251

3702 2767 934

3096 2536 560

2761 2166 595

1510 1037 472

966 623 344

1357 1045 312

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

123


Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

12.3 3.9 7 5.3

12.9 5.1 7.3 5.6

13.7 5.6 7.7 6

14.4 5.3 8 6.4

15.2 5.5 8.4 6.8

16 5.3 8.8 7.2

16.8 5.3 9.2 7.6

17.8 5.6 9.6 8.1

18.8 5.8 10.1 8.7

19.9 6 10.6 9.4

9.9 2

10.2 3.2

10.6 3.7

10.9 3.5

11.3 3.7

11.7 3.4

12.1 3.3

12.5 3.5

13 3.7

13.5 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.8 27

35.3 27.8

37 28.6

38.6 29.3

40.4 30.1

42.1 30.8

43.9 31.5

45.9 32.3

48 33.1

50.4 34.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41 2.1

42 2.4

43.2 3

44.6 3.1

46 3.3

47.5 3.3

49.1 3.4

50.8 3.4

52.5 3.4

54.4 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

170.4 0.6

173.1 1.6

176.9 2.2

179.6 1.5

182.2 1.4

184.4 1.2

186.5 1.1

188.9 1.3

191.2 1.2

193.5 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 2.5

3.9 4.5

4.1 3.8

4.1 1.4

4.1 0.5

4.1 0.1

4.1 0

4.2 0.3

4.2 0.2

4.2 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

166.6 0.6

169.2 1.6

172.8 2.1

175.4 1.5

178 1.5

180.3 1.3

182.3 1.1

184.7 1.3

187 1.2

189.3 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -0.7

7.1 7.7

7.6 7.4

8.1 6.2

8.4 3.9

8.6 2.7

8.8 2.5

9.1 2.9

9.2 1.8

9.3 1.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 -0.4

23 1.2

23.7 3

24.2 2.1

24.5 1.2

24.6 0.3

24.6 -0.2

24.7 0.4

24.8 0.7

25 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 17.2 2

3.6 17.3 2.2

3.8 17.6 2.3

3.9 17.9 2.3

3.9 18.1 2.4

3.9 18 2.5

4 17.9 2.5

4.1 17.9 2.6

4.1 17.9 2.7

4.2 18.1 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 3.2

3.3 0

3.4 1.3

3.4 1.5

3.5 1.4

3.5 1.9

3.6 1.7

3.6 1.6

3.7 1.4

3.7 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 0.2

7.8 1.6

7.8 0.8

7.8 -0.3

7.8 0.3

7.9 0.3

7.9 0

7.9 0

7.9 0.4

8 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 8.3

19.4 7.2

20.1 3.8

20.8 3.6

22 5.7

23.2 5.5

24.5 5.5

26 6.1

27.3 5.2

28.6 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 1.8

20.4 0.6

20.6 0.9

21 1.6

21.4 2.1

21.8 2

22.2 1.6

22.5 1.4

22.7 1.2

23 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -0.4

16.5 1

16.7 0.8

16.6 -0.3

16.5 -0.6

16.5 -0.3

16.4 -0.4

16.3 -0.4

16.3 -0.2

16.3 0

9.3 0.1

9.3 -0.6

9.3 0.2

9.4 0.8

9.4 0.2

9.4 0.3

9.4 0.2

9.4 -0.1

9.4 -0.3

9.4 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -3.7

1.9 -0.2

1.9 0.1

1.9 0.1

1.9 0.5

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.7

1.9 -0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

60.4 -1.1

60.5 0.3

61.7 2

62.3 0.9

62.6 0.5

62.9 0.4

63.1 0.4

63.4 0.4

63.7 0.5

64.1 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12519.7

12986.7

13381.4

13732.2

14177.7

14589.2

15001.1

15477.4

15971.8

16476.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

364.7 0.4

366.8 0.6

369.6 0.8

372.8 0.9

376.3 0.9

380.1 1

383.9 1

387.6 1

391.5 1

395.4 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

185.9 0.5

186.9 0.5

188.3 0.8

189.3 0.5

190.4 0.6

191.7 0.7

193 0.7

194.3 0.7

195.6 0.7

197.1 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.5

6.8

6.1

5.8

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.5

4.2

3.9

1953 1689 264

2362 2029 333

2531 2082 450

2572 2047 525

2665 2019 646

2713 1989 724

2691 1921 770

2681 1865 816

2709 1827 882

2732 1783 949

Continued 124

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

21.1 5.9 11 10.1

22.3 5.6 11.5 10.8

23.5 5.5 12 11.5

24.7 5.2 12.5 12.2

26 5.2 13.1 13

27.3 5.1 13.6 13.7

28.7 5 14.2 14.5

30.1 5 14.8 15.3

31.6 4.8 15.4 16.1

33.1 4.8 16.1 17

14 3.9

14.6 3.7

15.1 3.6

15.6 3.3

16.1 3.3

16.6 3.2

17.1 3.1

17.6 3

18.1 2.8

18.6 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

52.8 35.1

55.2 36.1

57.7 37

60.1 37.9

62.5 38.7

65.1 39.5

67.7 40.4

70.4 41.2

73.1 41.9

75.9 42.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.3 3.5

58.2 3.4

60.1 3.3

62 3.2

64 3.2

66.1 3.2

68.2 3.3

70.4 3.2

72.7 3.2

75 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195.5 1

197.3 0.9

199.1 0.9

201 0.9

203.1 1.1

205.2 1

207.3 1

209.6 1.1

211.8 1.1

213.9 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -0.6

4.1 -1.5

4 -1.4

4 -1.1

4 -0.7

3.9 -0.4

3.9 -0.4

3.9 -0.5

3.9 -0.4

3.9 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

191.3 1.1

193.2 1

195.1 1

197 1

199.2 1.1

201.3 1.1

203.4 1.1

205.7 1.1

207.9 1.1

210.1 1

9.5 1.4

9.6 1.3

9.7 1.3

9.9 1.4

10.1 1.9

10.3 2.2

10.5 1.8

10.6 1.5

10.7 1.3

10.9 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 0.7

25.4 0.7

25.5 0.7

25.7 0.7

25.9 0.7

26.1 0.7

26.2 0.6

26.4 0.6

26.6 0.6

26.7 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.3 18.2 2.7

4.4 18.2 2.8

4.5 18.3 2.8

4.5 18.3 2.9

4.6 18.4 3

4.6 18.4 3

4.7 18.5 3

4.7 18.5 3.1

4.8 18.6 3.1

4.8 18.7 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.4

3.9 1.4

3.9 1.5

4 1.6

4.1 1.7

4.1 1.9

4.2 2.1

4.3 2.2

4.4 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8 0.6

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.2

8.1 0.2

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.4

8.2 0.3

8.2 0.3

8.2 0.5

8.3 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 3.7

30.7 3.4

31.7 3.3

32.7 3.4

33.9 3.7

35.1 3.5

36.4 3.5

37.7 3.7

39.1 3.5

40.2 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 0.8

23.4 0.7

23.5 0.7

23.7 0.7

23.8 0.5

23.9 0.5

24.1 0.6

24.2 0.6

24.4 0.7

24.6 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 0.1

16.4 0.2

16.4 0.1

16.4 0.2

16.4 0.2

16.5 0.1

16.5 0.2

16.5 0.2

16.6 0.4

16.6 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 0.6

9.5 1.2

9.6 1.1

9.7 0.9

9.8 0.8

9.9 1

10 1.1

10.1 1.1

10.2 1.1

10.4 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.5

2 0.6

2 0.6

2 0.6

2 0.6

2 0.7

2.1 0.7

2.1 0.7

2.1 0.7

2.1 3.3

64.3 0.4

64.5 0.3

64.7 0.3

64.9 0.3

65.1 0.3

65.3 0.3

65.4 0.3

65.6 0.3

65.7 0.2

65.9 0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16979.3

17457.9

17903.5

18353.1

18849

19337.2

19818.6

20306.9

20798.6

21293.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

399.4 1

403.5 1

407.6 1

411.7 1

415.8 1

419.9 1

424.1 1

428.2 1

432.3 1

436.3 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

198.3 0.6

199.5 0.6

200.7 0.6

201.9 0.6

203.3 0.7

205.1 0.9

206.9 0.9

208.7 0.9

210.6 0.9

212.4 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

2705 1717 988

2654 1656 998

2598 1602 996

2556 1562 994

2549 1549 1000

2529 1517 1011

2474 1456 1018

2401 1379 1022

2351 1323 1028

2334 1298 1036

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

125


Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

34.6 4.6 16.7 17.9

36.2 4.6 17.4 18.8

37.8 4.5 18 19.8

39.5 4.5 18.7 20.8

41.3 4.6 19.4 22

43.3 4.7 20.1 23.1

45.3 4.8 21 24.4

47.5 4.8 21.9 25.7

49.8 4.9 22.8 27.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 2.5

19.6 2.5

20.1 2.5

20.6 2.6

21.1 2.6

21.7 2.7

22.3 2.8

23 2.9

23.6 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

78.6 43.4

81.5 44.1

84.4 44.9

87.5 45.6

90.8 46.5

94.3 47.3

98.1 48.3

102 49.3

106.2 50.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

77.3 3.1

79.7 3.2

82.1 3

84.6 3

87.1 3

89.8 3

92.5 3.1

95.3 3

98.1 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

215.5 0.7

216.9 0.7

218.5 0.7

220.2 0.8

221.9 0.8

223.7 0.8

226.1 1.1

228.6 1.1

231.6 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -0.2

3.9 -0.4

3.8 -0.3

3.8 -0.3

3.8 -0.2

3.8 -0.2

3.8 0

3.8 0.3

3.8 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

211.6 0.7

213.1 0.7

214.7 0.7

216.3 0.8

218.1 0.8

219.9 0.9

222.3 1.1

224.8 1.1

227.8 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 1.3

11.2 0.9

11.3 0.8

11.3 0.7

11.4 0.7

11.5 0.8

11.6 1

11.7 1

11.9 1.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 0.4

26.9 0.3

26.9 0.2

27 0.1

27 0.1

27 0

27.1 0.3

27.1 0.2

27.1 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 18.8 3.1

4.8 18.8 3.1

4.8 18.9 3.1

4.7 19 3.1

4.7 19 3.1

4.7 19.1 3.1

4.7 19.2 3

4.7 19.2 3

4.7 19.3 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 2

4.6 1.9

4.7 1.8

4.8 1.9

4.8 1.7

4.9 1.8

5 2

5.1 2.1

5.3 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 0.4

8.3 0.2

8.4 0.3

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.5

8.5 0.4

8.5 0.5

8.6 0.5

8.6 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41 2.1

41.9 2.1

42.9 2.4

44.1 2.7

45.3 2.8

46.7 3.1

48.3 3.5

50.2 3.9

52.5 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 0.5

24.8 0.5

24.9 0.4

25 0.4

25.1 0.3

25.2 0.2

25.2 0.3

25.3 0.3

25.3 0.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 0.3

16.7 0.1

16.7 0.2

16.7 0.1

16.8 0.2

16.8 0.1

16.9 0.4

16.9 0.4

17 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 1

10.6 1.1

10.7 0.8

10.8 0.9

10.8 0.9

10.9 0.9

11.1 1.1

11.2 1.1

11.3 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 -1.8

2.1 0.7

2.1 0.7

2.1 0.6

2.2 0.6

2.2 0.6

2.2 0.6

2.2 0.6

2.2 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

65.9 0.1

66 0.1

66.1 0.1

66.1 0.1

66.2 0.1

66.3 0.1

66.4 0.1

66.4 0.1

66.6 0.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

21745.2

22187.1

22657.2

23153.4

23662.9

24191

24733.2

25300.2

25905.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

440.1 0.9

444 0.9

447.8 0.9

451.5 0.8

455.1 0.8

458.7 0.8

462.3 0.8

465.8 0.8

469.4 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

214.2 0.8

215.9 0.8

217.7 0.8

219.4 0.8

221.2 0.8

222.9 0.8

224.6 0.8

226.2 0.7

228 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

2276 1255 1022

2199 1181 1017

2145 1135 1010

2117 1108 1009

2082 1082 1000

2040 1056 985

2006 1021 985

1958 986 972

1916 955 962


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,733,761 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 171,689 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborogh County population estimate of 1,180,784 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 471,028 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 910,260 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,315,637 in April 2009 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.1% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees • University of South Florida – 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees • Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees • James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees

• St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees • Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees Source: Committee of One Hundred Research

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA is expected to show relatively moderate gains in the state. Personal income growth is expected to be 2.8 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 30.7 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, one of the highest in the state. The average level for wages will be 45.6 annually. Population growth will average 0.7 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have one of the highest Gross Metro Products, averaging a level of 96,103.15 (Mill) annually. Employment growth is expected to grow 0.1 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. The expected annual unemployment rate is averaged at 10.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 2.5 percent each year. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline, like in most of the other metros, is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.8 percent.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Pinellas budget cuts could result in layoffs • After two consecutive years of budget cuts, Pinellas County is facing an $85-million reduction for the upcoming 2010 fiscal year. • The cut could result in both the elimination and reduction of county programs and services. • Proposed cuts include the elimination of 746 jobs and reductions in funding of $18.9 million for Economic Development, $10.8 million for Health and Human Services, and $3.2 million for Public Safety. Source: 10connects.com, May 20, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

127


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

County buys 57 acres of land near USF from GMAC as potential starter site for bioscience research hub • Hillsborough County has agreed to purchase 57 acres near the University of South Florida to be used as a potential bioscience research and development park. • The land cost the county $1 million. • The land might later become a part of the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute. Source: St. Petersburg Times, May 21, 2009 Hernando County approves $5 Million deal for dredging Hernando Beach Canal • Hernando County commissioners approved a $5-million contract to begin working on the Hernando Beach channel. • In total, though, between the contractor, the consultant, a special attorney, staff work, and other costs, the county will be paying $7,718,604. Source: St. Petersburg Times, May 27, 2009 Tampa Bay housing prices down 40.6 percent from peak and still dropping • After peaking in the summer of 2006, Tampa Bay area house prices have dropped 40.6% from what they were in August 2003. • The Tampa metro ranked seventh worst for depreciation in Case-Shiller’s 20-city housing report. Source: St. Petersburg Times, May 27, 2009

128

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

Jet America set to begin service in July • Jet America, a startup airline owned by a Tarpon Springs financier and headquartered near St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport, is opening. • The small carrier will connect small and mid-sized cities to the New York metro area and Minneapolis. Source: St. Petersburg Times, May 27, 2009


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

2200.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

(Thousands)

2000.0 1800.0

8.0%

1600.0 1400.0

4.0% 2.0%

1

Tampa Payroll Employment

10.0% 6.0%

0.8

1200.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

1000.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

250000.0

4.0%

200000.0

2.0%

150000.0

0.0%

100000.0 50000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Tampa Payroll Employment

-2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

129


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

100.9 -1.1 52 48.8

99.9 -1.9 51.9 47.9

100.1 -1.3 52.2 48

100.8 0 52.5 48.3

101.6 0.8 52.8 48.8

102.7 2.8 53.2 49.5

103.7 3.6 53.8 49.9

104.8 4 54.4 50.4

106 4.3 55 51.1

107.4 4.6 55.6 51.9

109 5 56.3 52.7

110.7 5.6 57.2 53.5

112.5 6.1 58.1 54.4

114.3 6.4 59 55.3

116 6.5 59.9 56.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

83.2 -0.8

82.4 -0.4

82.5 -1.2

82.7 -0.5

83.1 -0.2

83.6 1.4

84.1 1.9

84.6 2.2

85.1 2.5

85.8 2.7

86.7 3.1

87.7 3.6

88.7 4.2

89.7 4.5

90.7 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.7 30.3

36.3 29.9

36.4 29.9

36.5 30

36.8 30.1

37.1 30.2

37.5 30.4

37.8 30.5

38.2 30.6

38.6 30.8

39.1 31.1

39.6 31.4

40.1 31.7

40.7 31.9

41.2 32.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.9 3.4

44.1 3.1

44.4 2.7

44.7 2.6

44.9 2.3

45.2 2.4

45.4 2.3

45.7 2.4

46 2.4

46.2 2.3

46.4 2.2

46.7 2.2

47.1 2.4

47.4 2.6

47.7 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1174.4 -4.4

1165.4 -4.6

1162.8 -3.8

1162.9 -2.3

1164.9 -0.8

1167 0.1

1171.9 0.8

1177.8 1.3

1184.5 1.7

1191.8 2.1

1200.7 2.5

1211.4 2.8

1222.7 3.2

1233.5 3.5

1243 3.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

64.7 -10.3

61.8 -13

60.1 -13.7

59.5 -12.1

59 -8.8

59.2 -4.2

59.4 -1.2

59.7 0.4

60.2 2

60.9 2.9

61.7 3.7

62.3 4.4

63 4.6

63.6 4.5

64.2 4.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1109.7 -4

1103.6 -4.1

1102.6 -3.2

1103.4 -1.8

1105.9 -0.3

1107.8 0.4

1112.4 0.9

1118.1 1.3

1124.3 1.7

1130.9 2.1

1139 2.4

1149 2.8

1159.7 3.1

1169.9 3.4

1178.8 3.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

63.5 -18.4

61.8 -17.5

60.1 -15.9

58.9 -11.5

57.3 -9.8

56.2 -9.2

55.9 -7

55.8 -5.2

56.3 -1.8

57.1 1.7

58.1 4

59.4 6.4

60.7 7.8

61.8 8.3

63 8.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

215.7 -5.5

214.6 -5.4

214.6 -3.4

214.9 -1.8

215.1 -0.3

215.2 0.3

215.1 0.2

214.9 0

214.4 -0.3

214.5 -0.3

215.6 0.3

216.7 0.8

218.1 1.7

219.7 2.4

221.3 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

49.2 140.7 26.2

48.9 140.4 26

49 140.2 25.9

48.9 140.8 25.8

48.8 141.1 25.8

48.6 141.1 25.7

48.5 140.8 25.7

48.5 140.1 25.8

48.9 138.9 26

49.5 138.1 26.3

50.1 138.6 26.6

50.7 138.9 27

51.3 139.4 27.3

52 140 27.7

52.8 140.4 28.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

28.9 -7.9

28.3 -7.3

28.1 -5.7

27.6 -6.3

27 -6.7

27 -4.9

27.4 -2.4

27.9 1.2

28.1 4.4

28.1 4.2

28 2.1

27.9 0

27.9 -1

27.9 -0.8

27.9 -0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

96.1 -1.2

96.3 -1.5

96.2 -0.8

96.3 -0.5

96.2 0.1

95.9 -0.4

95.8 -0.4

95.9 -0.5

96.2 0

96.6 0.7

97.2 1.4

97.9 2.1

98.6 2.5

99.3 2.7

99.8 2.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

208.8 -8.1

205.9 -9.3

206 -9

206.4 -4

207.7 -0.5

210.6 2.3

216.1 4.9

221.6 7.4

226.3 9

230.4 9.4

235.2 8.8

241.2 8.9

246.7 9

251.8 9.3

255.4 8.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

172.8 1.8

173.9 2

174.7 2.5

176.1 2.4

177.8 2.9

179.2 3.1

179.9 3

180.1 2.2

181.1 1.9

182.1 1.6

182.7 1.5

183.1 1.7

183.7 1.4

184.2 1.2

184.8 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

121.9 -1.3

121.5 -0.5

121.4 0.8

121.3 -1

121.4 -0.4

121.5 0.1

121.2 -0.2

120.9 -0.3

120.9 -0.4

121 -0.4

121.3 0.1

121.7 0.7

122.2 1

122.6 1.3

123.1 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.1 -0.9

47.9 -1.4

48.3 0.5

48.4 0

48.4 0.4

48.5 1.2

48.5 0.4

48.5 0.3

48.5 0.3

48.5 0.1

48.5 0

48.4 -0.3

48.2 -0.6

48.2 -0.6

48.3 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.9 0.3

21.6 -0.6

21.6 -0.2

21.9 0.6

23.6 8

22.3 3.5

21.7 0.2

21.6 -1.7

21.5 -9

21.5 -3.8

21.5 -0.8

21.5 -0.2

21.5 0

21.5 0.2

21.6 0.3

131.9 1.1

131.8 0.6

131.7 0.1

131.6 -0.4

131.4 -0.3

131.2 -0.4

130.8 -0.7

131 -0.5

130.9 -0.4

130.9 -0.3

130.9 0

131.2 0.2

132.1 0.9

132.8 1.4

133.7 2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

92531.9

92239

92355

92560.7

93194

93829.6

94669

95311.4

96253.2

97255

98345.6

99562.9

100875

102072

103180

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2749.9 0.6

2752.4 0.5

2755 0.4

2758.3 0.4

2761.7 0.4

2765.5 0.5

2769.5 0.5

2773.8 0.6

2778.6 0.6

2783.9 0.7

2789.8 0.7

2795.8 0.8

2802.5 0.9

2809.6 0.9

2817.3 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1340 1.7

1336.5 0.5

1333.7 -1

1332.1 -0.8

1332.7 -0.5

1333.2 -0.2

1333.8 0

1334.7 0.2

1335 0.2

1335.9 0.2

1337.5 0.3

1339.4 0.4

1341.7 0.5

1343.9 0.6

1346.8 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.7

10.9

11.1

11.1

11.1

10.9

10.6

10.3

10

9.8

9.5

9.4

9

8.7

8.5

5117 3185 1931

5501 3696 1806

7528 4835 2694

9269 6204 3065

10332 7273 3059

11934 8769 3166

13452 10187 3266

14991 11728 3263

16570 13299 3271

17633 14506 3127

18566 15452 3114

19540 16217 3323

20822 17212 3610

22016 18064 3952

22648 18459 4189

*Quarterly at an annual rate

130

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6

82.5 7.9 44.9 37.6

88.6 7.4 47.8 40.8

95.3 7.6 51 44.3

99.3 4.1 52.7 46.5

101.5 2.3 52.8 48.7

100.4 -1.1 52.1 48.3

102.2 1.8 53.1 49.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

71.6 2

72.4 1.1

76.1 5.1

79.4 4.3

83.1 4.7

84.4 1.5

83.5 -1

82.8 -0.8

83.4 0.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.8 28.8

30.2 28.6

31.9 29.4

33.5 30

35.4 30.9

36.5 31

37.1 30.5

36.5 30.1

37 30.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 3.8

36 1

37 2.9

38.1 2.9

39.9 4.9

41.4 3.7

42.7 3

44 3.1

45 2.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1150.2 -0.8

1153.7 0.3

1203.1 4.3

1244.7 3.5

1264.4 1.6

1260.1 -0.3

1225.4 -2.8

1173.4 -4.2

1166.7 -0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80 -5

76 -5

76.6 0.8

77.3 0.9

78.2 1.2

75.6 -3.4

71.5 -5.4

63.6 -11.1

59.3 -6.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1070.2 -0.5

1077.7 0.7

1126.5 4.5

1167.4 3.6

1186.2 1.6

1184.6 -0.1

1153.9 -2.6

1109.8 -3.8

1107.4 -0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

69.6 2.8

72 3.5

79.1 9.9

88.3 11.6

93.9 6.3

87.4 -7

76.1 -12.9

63 -17.2

57.1 -9.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

228 -1.8

221.5 -2.8

226.5 2.2

233.9 3.2

236.1 1

234.6 -0.7

227.4 -3

215.9 -5.1

215.1 -0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

53.3 141.9 32.8

50.4 139.7 31.4

50.9 143.3 32.3

52.8 149 32.1

54 151 31.1

54.3 150.8 29.4

53.1 146.4 28

49.3 140.9 26.1

48.7 140.9 25.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

35.8 -7.9

34.6 -3.5

32.9 -4.8

32.7 -0.6

32.6 -0.2

32.6 -0.1

30.9 -5.3

28.7 -7.2

27.2 -5.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

92.5 0.2

93.9 1.5

95.5 1.7

99.4 4.1

102.7 3.2

101.8 -0.9

97.7 -4

96.3 -1.4

96.1 -0.3

190.9 -3.7

197.9 3.6

224.2 13.3

237.2 5.8

240.3 1.3

237 -1.4

227.8 -3.9

208.9 -8.3

210.2 0.6

143 2.1

147.6 3.2

152.3 3.2

154.7 1.6

158.4 2.4

165.6 4.5

170.1 2.7

173.3 1.9

178.3 2.9

115.7 1.1

116.1 0.4

119.7 3.1

123.7 3.3

125.9 1.8

126.1 0.2

122.6 -2.8

121.8 -0.6

121.4 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48 5.6

47.9 -0.2

49.2 2.7

49.4 0.5

47.1 -4.6

47.8 1.5

48.5 1.4

48.2 -0.7

48.4 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19 0.7

19.5 2.8

19.9 2.2

20.8 4.2

21 1.2

21.1 0.5

21.7 3

21.7 0

22.4 3.1

127.7 0.1

126.6 -0.8

127.2 0.4

127.2 0

128.1 0.7

130.6 2

131 0.3

131.9 0.7

131.3 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

80424

83412.6

88297.7

94416.4

97165.1

96841.3

96475.6

92635.7

93563.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2488 1.7

2530 1.7

2584.8 2.2

2642.6 2.2

2689.2 1.8

2717 1

2736.1 0.7

2751.2 0.6

2763.8 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1222 1.2

1226.3 0.4

1254 2.3

1258.3 0.3

1282.4 1.9

1305.1 1.8

1328.2 1.8

1338.3 0.8

1333 -0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.6

5.3

4.5

3.9

3.4

4.2

6.5

10.7

10.9

23639 18032 5608

27283 20013 7270

27279 22068 5211

32762 27605 5158

22881 19469 3412

11548 8513 3035

8954 5347 3607

6207 3798 2409

11247 8108 3139

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

131


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

106.8 4.5 55.3 51.5

113.4 6.1 58.5 54.8

120.8 6.6 62.1 58.7

128.3 6.2 65.6 62.7

136.5 6.4 69.5 67

144.7 6 73.3 71.3

153.2 5.9 77.3 75.9

162.9 6.3 81.8 81

173.6 6.6 86.5 87.1

185.4 6.8 91.4 94

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

85.6 2.6

89.2 4.3

93.3 4.6

97.4 4.4

101.8 4.5

105.9 4

110 3.9

114.6 4.2

119.8 4.5

125.7 4.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

38.4 30.8

40.4 31.8

42.5 32.9

44.6 33.8

46.7 34.8

48.7 35.7

50.8 36.4

53.1 37.4

55.7 38.5

58.6 39.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.1 2.3

47.2 2.5

48.7 3.1

50.3 3.2

51.9 3.3

53.6 3.3

55.4 3.3

57.2 3.3

59.2 3.4

61.2 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1188.7 1.9

1227.6 3.3

1264.6 3

1294.2 2.3

1326.6 2.5

1356.2 2.2

1385.1 2.1

1418.7 2.4

1451.2 2.3

1482.5 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

60.6 2.2

63.3 4.4

65.6 3.6

66.4 1.3

66.6 0.3

66.5 -0.1

66.4 -0.3

66.3 -0.1

66.3 -0.1

66 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1128.1 1.9

1164.3 3.2

1199 3

1227.8 2.4

1260 2.6

1289.7 2.4

1318.8 2.3

1352.4 2.6

1384.9 2.4

1416.5 2.3

56.8 -0.4

61.2 7.7

65.7 7.3

69.6 5.9

73.1 5

76.2 4.3

79.3 4

82.8 4.4

85.5 3.3

88.1 3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

214.9 -0.1

219 1.9

226.7 3.5

232.5 2.6

236.6 1.7

238.5 0.8

239.8 0.5

242.3 1

245.2 1.2

248.4 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

49.2 138.9 26.2

51.7 139.7 27.5

54.4 142.8 28.8

55.8 145.7 29.6

57 148 30.3

57.9 148 31.1

58.8 147.6 31.9

60.3 148 32.9

61.9 149 33.6

63.6 150.5 34.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

28 3

27.9 -0.5

28.2 1.2

28.6 1.4

29 1.4

29.6 2.1

30.3 2.1

30.9 2.1

31.4 1.8

31.9 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

96.5 0.4

98.9 2.5

100.3 1.4

100.5 0.3

101.4 0.9

102.2 0.8

102.8 0.5

103.3 0.6

104.4 1

106 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

228.4 8.7

248.8 8.9

261.8 5.2

274.2 4.7

291.8 6.4

308.6 5.8

326.7 5.9

348.4 6.6

368.8 5.8

387.5 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

181.5 1.8

183.9 1.4

186.7 1.5

190.3 1.9

194.4 2.2

198.5 2.1

201.9 1.7

204.9 1.5

208 1.5

210.8 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

121 -0.3

122.4 1.1

123.8 1.1

124.1 0.3

124 0

124.4 0.3

124.8 0.3

125 0.1

125.4 0.4

126.2 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.5 0.2

48.3 -0.5

48.5 0.4

49 1.1

49.2 0.5

49.5 0.6

49.8 0.5

49.9 0.2

49.9 -0.1

49.9 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 -3.9

21.5 0.1

21.6 0.3

21.7 0.3

21.8 0.6

22 0.8

22.2 0.8

22.3 0.8

22.5 0.8

22.7 0.6

130.9 -0.3

132.4 1.2

135.8 2.5

137.3 1.1

138.7 1

140 0.9

141.2 0.9

142.5 0.9

143.8 0.9

145.1 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

96791.3

101422

105379

108971

113472

117742

122122

127146

132359

137642

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2781.5 0.6

2806.3 0.9

2839.1 1.2

2878.8 1.4

2922.7 1.5

2969.2 1.6

3018.4 1.7

3068.4 1.7

3116.1 1.6

3164.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1335.8 0.2

1342.9 0.5

1354.9 0.9

1368.4 1

1384.1 1.2

1403.1 1.4

1422.2 1.4

1441.4 1.4

1460.9 1.4

1478.4 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.9

8.9

8

7.5

7

6.5

6.1

5.6

5.1

4.7

16940 13746 3194

21256 17488 3768

23230 19040 4190

24124 19710 4414

25504 20463 5041

26485 20839 5645

26901 20825 6076

27507 20911 6597

28440 21080 7359

29308 21205 8103

Continued 132

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

197.7 6.6 96.5 101.2

210.2 6.3 101.6 108.6

223.2 6.2 106.9 116.3

236.5 6 112.5 124

250.5 5.9 118.5 132

265.1 5.8 124.7 140.4

280.4 5.8 131.3 149.1

296.4 5.7 138.3 158.1

312.9 5.6 145.6 167.3

330.1 5.5 153.1 177

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

131.5 4.7

137.4 4.4

143.2 4.3

149 4

155 4

161.1 3.9

167.2 3.8

173.4 3.7

179.6 3.6

185.8 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

61.5 40.9

64.4 42.1

67.4 43.3

70.4 44.3

73.4 45.5

76.6 46.5

79.8 47.6

83.2 48.7

86.6 49.7

90 50.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

63.4 3.5

65.5 3.4

67.7 3.4

70 3.3

72.3 3.3

74.7 3.3

77.2 3.3

79.8 3.3

82.4 3.3

85 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1511.6 2

1539.2 1.8

1566.8 1.8

1595.6 1.8

1627 2

1658.3 1.9

1689.9 1.9

1723.4 2

1757.3 2

1789.9 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

65.4 -1

64.4 -1.5

63.5 -1.4

62.7 -1.2

62.1 -1

61.6 -0.7

61.2 -0.8

60.7 -0.8

60.2 -0.7

59.9 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1446.3 2.1

1474.8 2

1503.3 1.9

1532.9 2

1564.9 2.1

1596.7 2

1628.7 2

1662.7 2.1

1697.1 2.1

1730 1.9

90.7 3

93.2 2.8

95.8 2.8

98.6 2.8

101.8 3.3

105.3 3.4

108.4 3

111.4 2.7

114.3 2.6

117.6 2.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

251.3 1.2

254.4 1.2

257.5 1.2

260.6 1.2

263.7 1.2

266.6 1.1

269.2 1

272 1

274.5 0.9

276.8 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

65.2 151.7 34.7

66.8 152.8 35.3

68.1 153.8 36

69.4 154.8 36.7

70.7 155.6 37.5

71.8 156.3 38.2

72.8 157.3 38.7

73.8 158.5 39.1

74.4 159.9 39.4

75 161.1 39.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

32.3 1.5

32.9 1.7

33.5 1.9

34.2 2

34.9 2.1

35.8 2.3

36.6 2.5

37.6 2.7

38.7 2.8

39.7 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

107.4 1.3

108.5 1.1

109.4 0.8

110.3 0.8

111.5 1.1

112.7 1.1

113.8 1

115 1

116.3 1.2

117.9 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

404.6 4.4

420.6 4

436.8 3.9

453.9 3.9

472.9 4.2

491.7 4

511 3.9

532 4.1

553 3.9

571.6 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

213.1 1.1

215.1 1

217.2 1

219.3 1

221.2 0.8

222.8 0.7

224.7 0.8

226.7 0.9

228.9 1

231.2 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

127.1 0.7

128 0.7

128.9 0.7

129.9 0.8

130.8 0.7

131.6 0.6

132.6 0.7

133.6 0.8

134.9 1

136 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

50.4 0.8

51.1 1.4

51.7 1.3

52.3 1.2

52.9 1

53.5 1.2

54.3 1.4

55 1.4

55.8 1.4

56.5 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 1

23.1 0.8

23.3 0.8

23.5 0.8

23.7 0.8

23.9 0.8

24.1 0.8

24.3 0.8

24.5 0.8

25.3 3.5

146.5 1

147.9 0.9

149.2 0.9

150.3 0.8

151.6 0.8

152.8 0.8

154 0.8

155.2 0.8

156.3 0.7

157.3 0.7

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

143063

148366

153448

158623

164270

169925

175571

181369

187292

193335

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3212.6 1.5

3261.5 1.5

3310.8 1.5

3360.5 1.5

3410.6 1.5

3461 1.5

3511.7 1.5

3562.9 1.5

3614.2 1.4

3665.5 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1494.9 1.1

1511.2 1.1

1527.8 1.1

1545 1.1

1563.3 1.2

1584.4 1.3

1606.4 1.4

1628.8 1.4

1651.5 1.4

1674.2 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

29735 21046 8689

29939 20903 9036

29865 20848 9017

29830 20853 8978

30174 21206 8968

30289 21309 8980

30111 21088 9023

29764 20714 9050

29606 20532 9074

29824 20700 9124

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133


Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

347.4 5.2 160.2 187.2

365.4 5.2 167.6 197.8

384.4 5.2 175.4 209

404.6 5.3 183.7 220.9

426 5.3 192.3 233.6

449.2 5.4 202 247.2

474.4 5.6 212.8 261.7

501.3 5.7 224.3 277

529.6 5.7 236.4 293.3

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

191.8 3.2

197.8 3.2

204.2 3.2

210.9 3.3

217.8 3.3

225.4 3.5

233.6 3.6

242.2 3.7

251.1 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

93.5 51.6

97 52.5

100.6 53.4

104.5 54.5

108.6 55.5

113 56.7

117.8 58

122.9 59.4

128.2 60.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

87.7 3.2

90.5 3.2

93.3 3.1

96.2 3.1

99.1 3.1

102.4 3.2

105.7 3.2

109.1 3.2

112.5 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1816.2 1.5

1842.4 1.4

1869.4 1.5

1899.1 1.6

1929.8 1.6

1963.1 1.7

2003.3 2

2046.5 2.2

2091.9 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

59.6 -0.5

59.2 -0.7

58.8 -0.7

58.4 -0.6

58.2 -0.5

57.9 -0.4

57.8 -0.2

57.9 0.1

58 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1756.6 1.5

1783.2 1.5

1810.7 1.5

1840.7 1.7

1871.7 1.7

1905.2 1.8

1945.5 2.1

1988.6 2.2

2033.9 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

120.6 2.6

123.3 2.2

125.8 2.1

128.3 2

130.8 1.9

133.5 2.1

136.6 2.3

139.7 2.3

143.1 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

278.7 0.7

280.5 0.6

281.7 0.5

282.8 0.4

283.7 0.3

284.4 0.3

285.8 0.5

287 0.4

287.9 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

75.3 162.2 40.1

75.6 163.3 40.2

75.6 164.5 40.1

75.6 165.6 39.9

75.6 166.8 39.6

75.5 167.8 39.3

75.5 169.2 39.2

75.6 170.4 38.9

75.7 171.5 38.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

40.7 2.6

41.8 2.5

42.8 2.4

43.8 2.5

44.9 2.4

45.9 2.4

47.2 2.7

48.5 2.8

49.9 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

119.2 1.1

120.4 0.9

121.5 1

123 1.2

124.4 1.2

125.9 1.1

127.5 1.3

129 1.2

130.5 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

586.6 2.6

601.9 2.6

618.6 2.8

638 3.1

658.7 3.2

682.1 3.6

709.8 4.1

740.6 4.3

774 4.5

233 0.8

234.9 0.8

236.6 0.7

238.3 0.7

239.7 0.6

241 0.5

242.5 0.6

243.9 0.6

245 0.5

137.2 0.9

138.2 0.7

139.2 0.8

140.1 0.6

141.2 0.8

142.1 0.6

143.5 1

144.9 1

146 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

57.3 1.3

58 1.3

58.6 1.1

59.3 1.1

60 1.1

60.7 1.2

61.5 1.4

62.5 1.6

63.4 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 -1.7

25.1 0.8

25.3 0.8

25.5 0.8

25.7 0.8

26 0.8

26.2 0.8

26.4 0.8

26.6 0.7

158.3 0.6

159.3 0.6

160.4 0.7

161.4 0.7

162.5 0.7

163.7 0.7

164.9 0.7

166.1 0.7

167.4 0.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

199084

204803

210883

217336

224025

231025

238297

245940

253915

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3717 1.4

3768.5 1.4

3820.1 1.4

3871.7 1.4

3923.4 1.3

3975.1 1.3

4027 1.3

4079.1 1.3

4131.6 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1697 1.4

1719.9 1.3

1742.9 1.3

1766 1.3

1789.2 1.3

1812.5 1.3

1835.8 1.3

1859.4 1.3

1883.6 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family

134

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

29675 20674

29345 20356

29325 20354

29569 20544

29731 20725

29835 20871

29998 20925

30009 20940

30086 21015


Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ai t h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


University of Central Florida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u

Florida & Metro Forecast June 2009  

Florida & Metro Forecast June 2009

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