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Florida & Metro Forecast 2009-2039

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published June 2009


Me s s a g e F r o m Dea n T h o m a s L . K e o n

About University of Central Florida (UCF) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

When I read this forecast, one sentence in particular caught my attention. Florida’s recovery will be painfully slow! Unfortunately, that is not the news Floridians want to hear. We live in a fast-paced world. Everyone seems to be in a hurry. We take pictures on digital cameras and they come out instantly. We use e-mail or Twitter and information is received immediately. We buy tickets electronically so we don’t have to wait in line. We’ve grown accustomed to instant results, so it’s only natural that we want the economy to be fixed right away. That will not be the case in Florida. Our economic recovery will take time. Perhaps even more time than many other states in the country. I remain optimistic however, that our economy will improve…eventually. In fact, we are slowly starting to see some positive signs. It is not an easy fix, so we will have to learn to be more patient. After all, real life is not like a digital video recorder. You can’t just fast forward through the parts that you don’t like to get to the happy ending. I’m afraid we’re going to have to ride this one out!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2009-2039 June 2009 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher McGregor Love, Researcher Laura Stockbridge, Researcher Evgenia Volkonitskaya, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited. Copyright Š 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Highlights................................................................. 5 Florida Summary................................................... 6-9 Sponsor....................................................................10

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Tables..................................... 12-26 Florida Forecast Charts.....................................28-36 Florida News Summaries........................................37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach..........39-46 Gainesville........................................................ 47-54 Jacksonville.......................................................55-62 Lakeland............................................................ 63-70 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach......... 71-78 Naples-Marco Island........................................ 79-86 Ocala................................................................. 87-94 Orlando-Kissimmee........................................ 95-102 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville.....................103-110 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent........................... 111-118 Tallahassee.................................................... 119-126 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................127-134


H igh l igh t s o f t he F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2 0 0 9 -2 012 • Florida’s massive job losses will continue to accumulate through the end of 2009. After nearly three straight years of job losses, meager employment growth returns in 2010. • Payroll employment in Florida will have declined by an average of 715,000 jobs from 2007 Q1 through 2009 Q4. • Florida’s labor market is the ugly scar that will serve as a reminder of the economic trauma we have endured, and this scar will take a long time to fade. Florida’s payroll employment will not reach prerecession levels until 2014. • Unemployment rates hit double digits in Q2 of 2009 and continue to slowly climb into Q2 2010 with average unemployment peaking in that quarter at 10.7%. Unemployment will stay above 10% through 2011 Q1 and continue a painfully slow decline from its peak. Unemployment will only fall to 8.7 % by the end of 2012. • The only two sectors forecasted to average positive growth during 2009-2012 are Education and Health Services (2.2%) and Professional and Business Services (2.1%). For the latter, this average growth is driven by a surge in hiring in 2011 and 2012 while the former grows faster in the near term and growth decelerates in 2011-2012. • Florida’s housing construction sector finally bottoms out deeper than many expected in 2009 Q2, falling to just 35,352 housing starts at an annual rate. This level of starts represents only 12% of the peak number of starts it reached in 2005 Q4, a stunning 88% decline in starts from peak to trough. • Housing starts will climb at a very slow pace. In 2012 Q4, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, coming in at 166,000 starts. • Sales of existing homes have shown strength in recent months as the 12-month moving average of sales has been on the rise since August 2008. However, prices have not yet found a bottom, and until this occurs, we will still have an unstable housing sector. • House prices in many areas have fallen below replacement cost, a natural long-run floor for prices. Foreclosures and short sales have caused the housing market to overshoot the bottom just as it did the top. • The Construction sector will continue to shed jobs in 2009 and 2010 at a double-digit pace, but job losses slow in 2011 to less than 1.0%, and the bleeding slows to a trickle in 2011 when the sector loses jobs at a rate of just -0.1%. The second half of 2011 will be the first time since 2007 Q1 that Florida has added jobs in this sector. • Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth was near zero in 2007 and contracted slightly in 2008 (-0.2%). Growth will be strongly negative in 2009, contracting at -4.3% before growth reappears in 2010 Q2 and accelerates to 5.2% in 2012. • Personal income growth will contract -1.2% in 2009 before growth begins to accelerate in 2010 to 1.9%. In 2011-2012, personal income growth will average 5.4% and hit 6.1% in 2012. • Retail sales will contract for the first half of 2009. The second half of the year Florida’s consumers, still punch drunk from the painful combination of home equity stock market losses will start spending cautiously. During the 2010-2012 time frame, retail sales will steadily accelerate and grow at an average pace of 5.8% as consumer spending returns, fueled by pent-up demand. • Is government really “too big” in Florida?

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

Green shoots may be emerging, but without the fertilizer of population growth and construction, Florida’s recovery will be painfully slow.

F lo r i da’ s E c o n omy

Florida’s Labor Market will be the ugly scar that is slow to fade and serves as a reminder to us of the economic trauma we have endured.

Is Government Too Big in Florida? Fiscal conservatives across the country are suffering aneurysms in the face of an unprecedented explosion in the size of the federal government. That explosion is part of an unbelievably irresponsible set of policies that have appeared so quickly, one right after the other, that they are released as “tweets” instead of position papers. OK, maybe Twitter isn’t the official channel through which policy changes are being proposed, but the lack of detail is consistent with the 140 character limit of the latest darling of the Web 2.0. We are forecasting that another $4.5 trillion will be added to our national debt by 2012, and fiscal prudence is evidenced by a plan to reduce the deficit to “just” $500 billion in 10 years time. These kinds of policies can trigger severe hemorrhaging in those of us that do not believe that the government is some deus ex machina that can appear and solve all of our problems and meet all of our needs. I wonder if some of this frustration about the federal level of government is spilling over into state government. We just went through a legislative session where instead of raising taxes to plug some of the budget shortfall, we decide to further gut funding of higher education and allow for more teachers to be pulled from K-12 classrooms. One of the justifications or rallying cries for this shortsighted policy decision was that taxes are “too high” or government is “too big” in Florida to justify any increase in taxes. According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, Florida has the 47th lowest overall tax burden in the country (Nevada, Alaska and Wyoming are lower, but they also have big streams of non-tax revenue from gaming and minerals fees). It is hard to swallow the tax burden argument, but what about the size of government? Is it too big in Florida? The table on page 7 lists state ranking by several metrics of the size of government in Florida. The first metric looks at state expenditures as a share of Gross State Product; this adjusts the level of spending by the size of the state’s economy. By this metric, Florida has the seventh smallest government when it comes to looking at a state’s budget relative to the size of its economy as a whole, which is 8.91%. Nevada is the lowest, coming in at just 2.08%. The next metric we looked at is state government employment as a share of total employment in the state. Florida has the second smallest state government share of employment in the nation at 2.37%, and Illinois has the lowest at 2.08%. It is tough to look at that figure and come to 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

the conclusion that government is too big in this state. The next metric is per capita state government spending. Like spending as a share of Gross State Product, the per capita measure adjusts the level of spending, accounting for population size of the state. Florida comes in with the eighth lowest state spending per capita in the country with $3,633 worth of spending per person. Nevada has the lowest spending per person in the nation at $3,209. Again, Florida’s government does not look all that big by comparison. The state government is one part of the overall picture, but what about local government? We also took a look at local government employment as a share of total payroll employment, and Florida falls a bit in these rankings to the 15th lowest percentage of employment in local government at 9.51%. Illinois comes in at 30th with 10.05%, and Wyoming falls dead last with 14.21% of employees in the state working for local government. Is government too big, are taxes too high? By comparison to the other 49 states in the union the objective answer is no. If you are a hardcore anti-government or anti-tax, this data will likely not sway you. However, every decision to cut or raise taxes should be a cost-benefit analysis and ask the question, “What do we gain/lose with the change in taxes?” If you do not weigh benefits against costs, it is very easy to pursue harmful policies, and starving our state’s educational system is, in my mind, one example of doing just that.

F lo r i da’ s H o u s i n g M a r ke t Sales on the rise, but prices continue to decline

We are still forecasting housing starts will hit their nadir in the current quarter. This is good news of sorts, if the bottom were not deeper than the Mariana Trench. Just like the deepest point in the world’s oceans, the bottom in the housing market was the result of a tectonic shift in the factors that drove the housing market to record heights, and the shift caused these markets to plunge. In 2009 Q2, starts will be just 12% of what they were at the peak of the housing boom. A variety of economic and policy factors are in play that will help the housing sector move


F l o r i d a Summa r y

more quickly toward balance between supply and demand. And once that balance get closer, builders will have a greater incentive to build. This process will slowly play itself out over the next several years in concert with an economic recovery that promises to remain muted in its early stages. Those builders and developers that have survived the downturn will proceed with caution in pursuing new projects, reigned in, in part, due to their own wariness after the bust, and in part due to the limited access to financing as the credit freeze slowly thaws. Figures 2 and 3 (on page 8) depict data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) and cover the housing market through April 2009. Sales (Figure 2) and median housing prices (Figure 3) have plummeted. Any market in which there exists a surplus will see downward pressure on prices as the market feels its way toward a new equilibrium. Prices continue to fall as housing inventories remain elevated across the state, and many buyers continue to have difficulty getting loans (with some exceptions, namely FHA loans for first time buyers). However, the steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. The 12-month moving average of existing home sales in Florida has been rising since August 2008. Prices have fallen substantially, as Figure 3 clearly displays. In many parts of the state, prices have fallen below replacement costs. This is clearly a phenomenon that is short-run in nature and reflects a large number of distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales. This clearly demonstrates that we are seeing an overshooting of prices on the way down as we saw them overshoot at the top of this cycle. Mortgage rates were low; unfortunately, large federal deficits have helped to push mortgage rates up recently and threaten an already tenuous recovery process. Availability of financing still plagues the sector as it is still very difficult to get a mortgage. The faster the credit crisis is remedied, the quicker supply and demand in the housing market will move toward equilibrium and then, and only then, will prices stabilize.

Ou t l o o k f o r Florida 2009-2012 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t The Prodigal Economy Returns, but Has it Learned its Lesson? Florida’s economy continues to struggle in the midst of a recession that promises to last longer than the national recession, which in our recently released U.S. Forecast we predict will come to an end in 2009 Q3. Real GSP in Florida, the state-level analogue to real GDP, will continue to decline until 2010 Q2. The shape of the recovery in Florida will also resemble the “Gravy Boat� path of the national

States

State Gov. Local Gov. State Gov. Employment Employment Expenditures as a % of as a % of State Per as a % Total State Total State Capita of GDP employment employment Expenditures

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware

48 49 26 43 16 3 24 33

Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

12 44 21 4 9 29 20 39 37 41 25 31 27 23 45 10 35 17 1 5 14 46 19 18 30 28 36 32 22 38 34 6 15 2 11 47 8 13 50 40 42

Florida

7

37 49 9 44 11 12 31 48

2

36 44 31 12 43 27 11 2

15

44 50 16 36 25 3 41 47

8

26 30 12 50 1 46 29 41 9 1 25 7 10 10 6 19 38 26 13 48 15 36 13 31 45 37 42 30 23 35 27 9 29 14 4 40 18 22 14 7 16 27 40 49 28 23 21 5 39 28 24 20 40 21 5 5 1 17 8 4 22 26 30 47 47 43 8 46 37 32 33 17 41 29 32 4 24 22 43 45 33 25 32 34 3 6 20 21 3 39 38 34 19 24 39 11 15 18 13 16 42 2 33 7 10 46 17 45 28 19 18 34 35 23 42 20 49 6 14 38 35 50 48 Note: Higher rankings mean smaller government Ranking of 1 = smallest value in the 50 states

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F l o r i d a Summa r y Figure 3. Median Housing Prices

Figure 2. Housing Sales

Florida

Florida

Florida

Florida Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

$300,000.00

30000 25000

Median Sales Price

Realtor Sales

$250,000.00

Moving Average

20000

$200,000.00

15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors 0

$50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors $-

9

8

rate in 2009 before averaging a healthier 3.4% growth rate during 2011-2012. Real disposable income growth will continue to be depressed by the floundering economy, though price deflation and tax cuts have boosted real disposable income growth in 2009 to 1.2%. A continued worsening of Florida’s labor markets will be marked by expected unemployment rates of 10.7%, remaining in double-digits until 2011 Q2. This will result in a deceleration of growth to just 0.5% in 2010. In 2011-2012, the economy fully emergent from recession, real disposable income will expand at an average pace of 2.4%. Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, like their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and evaporating stock market wealth. Wealth represents access to future income and, thus, consumption, and with so much wealth destroyed, consumers have cut back on spending and have been working to try and rebuild nest eggs that may only be 50% of what they once were. This has resulted in a jump in the national saving rate that was once negative and now is between 4% and 5%. A consumer that feels poorer and who is saving more of his or her income to replenish shrunken nest eggs is a consumer who is not spending. Reluctant consumers will peek their heads out of their shells in the second half of 2009 but are unlikely to stick their necks all the way out and begin spending in large amounts. With Florida’s labor markets remaining in a dismal state for a prolonged period, consumers will be sluggish in their spending. Consumer confidence has shown some life and the stock market has bounced back from the lows touched at the height of the crisis. None of this, of course, warrants a spending spree, but spending should respond to the passing of the worst part of the recession and the abject fear and panic that coincided with it. Retail sales in Florida will contract in the first half of 2009, but a long slow road to recovery sets in during the second half of the year. While spending will be on the uptick in 2009 Q4,

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Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

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Personal income growth continues a deceleration that began in 2007 and will continue through 2009, when personal income contracts at a -1.2% rate. Starting in 2010, personal income growth will exhibit a steady acceleration as the economy begins to gain momentum and finally grows robustly once again after emerging from the longest recession in decades. In 2011, personal income growth is expected to rise to 4.4% and then in 2012 reaches a healthy 6.1% rate of expansion. Soaring energy prices and a deepening of the recession conspired to cause real personal income to contract in 2008 at -0.9%. Real personal income is expected to fall at the same

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economy. Growth will be muted in the first couple of quarters and accelerate slowly in this expansion. Real GSP growth will hit 3.4% in 2011 and then rise further to 4.7% as the economy begins to hit on all cylinders once again. The 3.0%-plus growth rate in 2011 will be the first time since 2006 that Florida’s real GSP growth has been in excess of 3.0%. Although no feast is planned, it will be a welcome return of healthy growth to Florida’s economy after a very difficult and protracted recession. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $818.7 billion by 2012, as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold that has been getting pushed further into the future. It is a crossing we have now pushed back until 2016 when we forecast GSP to finally break the trillion-dollar mark. To put some perspective on the size of Florida’s economy, consider this. If Florida were its own country, GSP in 2008 of $743 billion would rank it the 17th largest economy in the world. This is according to an International Monetary Fund database and would put Florida ahead of Turkey, Poland, and Indonesia.

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Moving Average


F l o r i d a Summa r y

it is looking like another difficult shopping season for retailers as retail sales will actually be lower than they were in the 4th quarter of 2008. The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a domestic automotive industry in shambles will conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall for a fourth straight year in 2009. After four years of declines, we are forecasting new vehicle registrations to grow slightly again in the later half of 2009, but total registrations will be nearly 50% less than levels reached in 2004. In 2010, 2011, and 2012, an improving economy and the need to replace many vehicles in the aging fleet currently on the road (median age of cars in America is now 9.2 years and 7.1 years for light trucks) will help to drive new vehicle registration growth higher. In 2012, registration levels will hit 1.18 million, putting 2012 levels on par with those recorded in 1997. This level of registrations is 81% of the peak level reached in 2005.

E mp l o y me n t Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by -4.6% for 2009; this figure is compared to the national job growth of -3.7% for the same year. Job losses in Florida will persist into the 2nd quarter of 2010. Even though payrolls will begin to grow in the second half of the year, the full year will see negative job growth of -0.4%. Once payroll growth takes root, it will slowly gain momentum throughout 2011, a year when job growth is expected to come in at 1.6% and reach 3.0% in 2012. When job growth finally does turn positive in the 2nd quarter of 2010, it will be after nearly three full years of job losses. The Construction sector, which has been collapsing since peaking in 2006 during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the credit freeze and a further deterioration of commercial construction markets. The bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth but not enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will be the worst-performing sector in the economy on average through 2012 as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector will reach nearly 318,000 by the end of the job losses, after which an initially slow recovery in Construction will start to gain momentum. Job growth will not return to this sector until the 3rd quarter of 2011. Growth is expected to surge to 7.4% in 2012 as the commercial sector joins the residential sector in recovery and the overall economic turnaround is in full swing. The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that, once the economy gets past the recession, will resume robust growth in Florida. In 2010, job growth is expected to rise to 0.6% after two-and-a-half years of job losses. Job gains accelerate from there and rise to 8.8% in 2011 and 2012. The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the fourth quarter of 2010; newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural change gripping the industry, advertising

revenues that have fallen off dramatically, and major papers and publishing groups are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. 2011 will be the first year of job growth in this sector after eight of the nine prior years witnessed job losses, including five straight years of job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will surge to 3.4% in 2011 and slow, but pull back slightly in 2012, as the industry struggles to find the right business model. The one sector that has continued to create jobs during this recession thus far and is expected to continue to expand through the duration of the worst recession in decades is the Health and Education sector. During 2009-2012, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.2%. What is even more remarkable is that the average growth rate for payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be -0.1%. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through 2010. The dual forces of globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have conspired to shrink employment in this sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 2.2% in this sector for the full year in 2011, and this will be followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012 when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 4.4%. For the first time since the mid 1990’s, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in two consecutive years. The weakening dollar, part of our U.S. Forecast, will help make American manufactured goods more competitive overseas. The fallout from the collapse of the U.S. automotive industry imparts a fair amount of uncertainty over this particular sector’s forecast.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state plunged to levels that seemed impossibly and unsustainably low during the housing boom (and indeed they were). Florida’s unemployment rate was more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate. The housing blessing soon became a curse, one that will take years to lift. Unemployment in Florida has now surged higher than the national rate of unemployment, though we expect that the national rate of unemployment will remain below Florida’s rate, though both will peak in 2010. After the peak, Florida’s unemployment rate will decline more slowly and remain above the national unemployment rate as the gravy boat recovery plays itself out. How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to rise to 10.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 and remain above 10% until mid 2011. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2012. There is no reason to believe that there will be a rapid reversal in the unemployment rate over the forecast horizon without a boost from the usual suspects: population growth and a construction boom.

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In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com


Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2001

2002

2003

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 6.6 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 0.7 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 3.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2005

2006

2007

2008

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 614.4 668.5 10.0 8.6 8.8 6.1 5.6 7.1 521.8 550.6 582.9 7.1 5.5 5.9 11.8 5.9 7.9 471.1 489.2 517.2 6.5 3.9 5.7 11.8 5.9 7.9 607.3 670.2 716.5 8.6 10.4 6.9 548.6 588.8 609.8 5.4 7.3 3.6

699.2 4.6 6.1 594.2 2.0 1.4 524.7 1.5 1.4 734.5 2.5 609.9 0.0

716.1 2.4 3.8 588.9 -0.9 2.5 524.4 0.0 2.5 743.1 1.2 604.5 -0.9

Ju n e 2 0 0 9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 9.4 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 -8.3 5.8 5.3 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2004

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

Population and Migration 16380.5 16686.2 16989.6 17362.5 17737.0 18032.9 18212.3 18344.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 66.0 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 18.7 6.8 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -11.4

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

2.5

1.7

2.6

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 211.6 61.3

204.8 156.3 48.5

101.6 74.7 26.9

62.3 42.0 20.4

Consumer Prices 3.0 4.5 4.2

3.4

3.9


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2001

2002

2003

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 6.6 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 0.7 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 3.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 614.4 668.5 10.0 8.6 8.8 6.1 5.6 7.1 521.8 550.6 582.9 7.1 5.5 5.9 11.8 5.9 7.9 471.1 489.2 517.2 6.5 3.9 5.7 11.8 5.9 7.9 607.3 670.2 716.5 8.6 10.4 6.9 548.6 588.8 609.8 5.4 7.3 3.6

699.2 4.6 6.1 594.2 2.0 1.4 524.7 1.5 1.4 734.5 2.5 609.9 0.0

716.1 2.4 3.8 588.9 -0.9 2.5 524.4 0.0 2.5 743.1 1.2 604.5 -0.9

707.4 -1.2 -0.2 583.4 -0.9 -3.0 530.5 1.2 -3.0 721.4 -2.9 578.7 -4.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8

-4.1 0.0 10.0 9.2

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) 0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 9.4 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 -8.3 5.8 5.3 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

-3.7 -4.6 -5.9 -18.0 -11.9 -9.6 -13.1 -4.2 -3.6 -4.8 -2.5 -9.8 2.3 -2.5 -7.0 -0.6 -0.5

Population and Migration 16380.5 16686.2 16989.6 17362.5 17737.0 18032.9 18212.3 18344.3 18447.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 66.0 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 18.7 4.1 6.8 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -11.4 -78.3

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

2.5

1.7

2.6

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 211.6 61.3

204.8 156.3 48.5

101.6 74.7 26.9

62.3 42.0 20.4

40.4 27.7 12.7

Consumer Prices 3.0 4.5 4.2

3.4

3.9

-1.0

Continued 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2010

2011

2012

2013

2016

2017

2018

2019

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

720.7 1.9 2.0 587.7 0.7 3.1 532.8 0.5 3.1 736.9 2.2 585.2 1.1

752.4 4.4 4.0 602.7 2.5 5.8 542.2 1.8 5.8 771.8 4.7 605.2 3.4

798.2 6.1 5.1 628.0 4.2 6.1 559.1 3.1 6.1 818.7 6.1 633.4 4.7

Personal Income and GSP 849.6 901.8 960.9 1021.0 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.3 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.2 656.2 684.6 716.7 747.5 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.3 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.5 574.5 599.0 628.2 655.2 2.8 4.3 4.9 4.3 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.5 864.1 910.1 966.5 1022.5 5.5 5.3 6.2 5.8 657.4 679.1 707.3 734.0 3.8 3.3 4.1 3.8

1084.1 6.2 5.2 778.4 4.1 5.7 682.0 4.1 5.7 1081.0 5.7 761.4 3.7

1154.6 6.5 5.4 812.7 4.4 6.2 711.9 4.4 6.2 1147.1 6.1 792.5 4.1

1233.9 6.9 5.7 851.8 4.8 7.0 746.0 4.8 7.0 1216.9 6.1 825.2 4.1

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-0.3 0.3 10.6 10.1

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2014

2015

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 9.8 9.1 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.6 9.6 8.6 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.5

2.0 1.5 6.1 6.1

2.0 1.5 5.6 5.6

1.1 2.3 -2.7 4.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.7 6.8 1.8 0.2 2.0 0.8 1.0

1.1 2.3 -2.7 3.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 2.6 2.7 0.9 1.1 6.1 1.7 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.0

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) -0.6 -0.4 -5.4 -10.1 -6.6 -4.9 -7.3 -0.4 -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.4 0.0 -4.6 3.2 -0.5

1.4 1.6 -1.4 -0.9 2.2 -1.3 4.0 2.2 1.2 -1.2 0.7 8.8 2.1 0.1 3.4 -4.3 -0.3

2.4 3.0 1.0 7.4 4.4 0.1 6.5 5.7 5.1 0.7 2.4 8.8 1.2 1.3 -0.2 0.0 1.1

2.0 2.8 0.7 7.0 3.6 0.5 5.0 5.1 5.3 2.4 1.4 5.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 2.5

1.2 2.2 -0.8 5.7 1.3 0.1 1.8 3.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 4.5 2.1 0.3 1.7 0.3 1.2

1.1 2.4 -1.1 4.9 0.2 -0.2 0.5 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.0 6.7 2.4 0.0 1.6 0.6 1.1

1.1 2.1 -2.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 3.0 1.5 0.1 0.9 6.1 2.5 0.4 2.3 0.8 1.0

1.1 2.0 -2.8 3.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 2.9 1.6 -0.2 0.7 6.1 2.1 0.4 2.1 0.8 1.0

Population and Migration 18532.7 18664.3 18849.1 19086.3 19360.7 19663.6 19986.9 20323.4 20668.1 21018.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 13.0 24.9 37.9 49.3 56.7 62.5 66.1 68.2 69.2 69.7 221.2 94.3 52.7 30.8 15.3 10.2 5.7 3.2 1.4 0.8

74.7 58.4 16.4

118.7 99.9 18.8

156.0 128.7 27.3

170.3 136.9 33.4

Housing 175.9 186.6 139.7 143.2 36.3 43.4

193.1 144.9 48.2

195.6 144.1 51.5

199.0 144.0 55.0

204.5 144.4 60.1

1.7

2.4

2.5

2.4

Consumer Prices 2.2 2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2020

2021

2022

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

1321.7 7.1 5.7 895.6 5.1 6.9 785.1 5.2 6.9 1290.9 6.1 858.7 4.0

1413.3 6.9 5.7 940.2 5.0 6.7 824.6 5.0 6.7 1368.3 6.0 892.9 4.0

1506.9 6.6 5.5 984.8 4.7 6.3 863.6 4.7 6.3 1447.2 5.8 926.4 3.7

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.9 1.4 5.2 5.1

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Personal Income and GSP 1603.8 1703.1 1806.7 1915.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 1029.3 1073.2 1118.0 1163.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 902.1 939.9 978.5 1017.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 1526.4 1608.7 1697.6 1789.3 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 958.5 991.2 1026.9 1062.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5

2028.8 5.9 4.8 1209.8 4.0 5.0 1056.9 3.9 5.0 1884.3 5.3 1098.4 3.4

2147.8 5.9 4.8 1256.4 3.9 4.9 1096.6 3.8 4.9 1984.5 5.3 1135.2 3.3

2270.5 5.7 4.7 1303.1 3.7 4.7 1136.2 3.6 4.7 2088.9 5.3 1172.8 3.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

1.6 1.7 4.9 4.7

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.8

0.9 2.0 -0.8 2.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 4.4 1.2 1.0 2.6 0.8 0.9

0.9 2.0 -0.8 2.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 4.2 1.3 1.2 2.8 0.8 0.8

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) 1.2 2.2 -2.1 2.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1.8 2.9 1.2 1.5 5.4 1.6 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.1

1.0 2.0 -1.7 2.9 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.3 4.8 1.3 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.1

0.9 1.9 -1.8 2.7 -1.5 -1.0 -1.7 2.1 2.5 0.9 1.1 4.2 1.2 0.9 1.8 0.8 1.0

0.9 1.8 -1.8 2.7 -1.4 -1.0 -1.5 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 4.0 1.3 0.9 2.0 0.8 1.0

0.9 1.8 -1.5 2.7 -1.2 -0.9 -1.3 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.9 4.1 1.3 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.9

1.0 2.0 -1.1 3.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 1.9 1.9 0.8 1.2 4.4 1.1 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.9

0.9 1.9 -0.7 3.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 1.1 4.2 1.1 0.9 2.3 0.8 0.9

0.9 1.9 -0.7 2.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.0 4.1 1.2 1.0 2.5 0.8 0.9

Population and Migration 21372.5 21731.6 22095.1 22462.9 22834.9 23211.0 23591.0 23974.9 24362.9 24753.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 70.3 70.8 71.4 71.9 72.5 73.0 73.6 74.1 74.7 75.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

209.2 144.2 65.0

210.5 142.5 68.0

209.5 140.8 68.7

207.7 139.8 68.0

Housing 206.8 208.7 139.1 140.9 67.7 67.8

208.8 140.9 67.9

206.9 138.7 68.2

203.9 135.4 68.5

202.3 133.5 68.8

2.1

1.9

1.9

2.0

Consumer Prices 2.0 2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

Continued 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2030

2031

2032

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

2398.8 5.6 4.7 1350.2 3.6 4.9 1176.1 3.5 4.9 2198.8 5.3 1211.2 3.3

2529.5 5.5 4.5 1396.4 3.4 4.7 1215.4 3.3 4.7 2309.1 5.0 1248.0 3.0

2666.4 5.4 4.5 1443.6 3.4 4.6 1255.5 3.3 4.6 2422.4 4.9 1284.6 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.8

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Personal Income and GSP 2810.0 2963.5 3127.0 3303.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 1492.5 1544.4 1599.2 1657.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 1296.7 1340.4 1386.0 1434.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 2542.0 2669.6 2803.8 2947.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 1323.4 1364.5 1407.2 1452.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2

3494.1 5.8 4.5 1720.5 3.8 4.6 1487.2 3.7 4.6 3099.6 5.2 1498.7 3.2

3697.2 5.8 4.5 1786.4 3.8 4.6 1542.3 3.7 4.6 3262.1 5.2 1547.6 3.3

3911.9 5.8 4.5 1854.5 3.8 4.6 1599.4 3.7 4.6 3434.3 5.3 1598.5 3.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.7

1.6 1.6 5.0 4.7

1.0 2.1 -0.3 2.2 0.1 -1.0 0.5 -0.7 0.2 1.0 1.2 4.6 0.8 1.2 2.8 0.8 0.8

1.0 2.1 -0.6 2.3 0.2 -0.9 0.7 -0.7 0.2 0.9 1.2 4.8 0.7 1.1 2.9 0.7 0.9

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) 1.0 1.9 -0.8 2.8 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 3.6 1.3 1.1 2.7 3.5 0.8

0.8 1.5 -1.0 2.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 2.9 1.1 1.1 2.6 -1.7 0.7

0.8 1.5 -1.0 2.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.9 2.5 0.8 0.7

0.7 1.5 -1.1 2.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.8

0.8 1.6 -0.9 1.8 -0.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.9 1.2 3.3 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.8 0.7

0.8 1.6 -0.7 1.8 -0.5 -1.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.2 3.5 0.9 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.8

0.8 1.7 -0.6 2.0 -0.4 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.1 3.8 0.8 0.9 2.4 0.8 0.8

1.0 2.0 -0.3 2.2 -0.2 -1.0 0.2 -0.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 4.4 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.8

Population and Migration 25146.0 25540.5 25937.0 26335.4 26735.8 27138.1 27542.5 27949.4 28359.3 28773.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 75.8 76.3 76.8 77.3 77.8 78.3 78.8 79.4 79.9 80.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1

203.4 134.1 69.3

201.9 133.3 68.5

199.1 130.5 68.6

198.5 129.8 68.7

Housing 199.8 200.4 130.5 131.2 69.3 69.3

200.7 131.6 69.1

201.3 131.3 70.0

200.8 130.8 70.1

200.8 130.6 70.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

Consumer Prices 2.0 2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

710.8 -1.5 -0.3 586.6 -1.2 -3.8 533.8 0.8 -3.8 719.3 -3.5 577.7 -5.2

703.4 -2.0 -1.0 580.5 -0.5 -4.4 529.2 1.8 -4.4 718.7 -4.0 576.3 -4.9

705.7 -1.1 -0.3 581.1 -1.1 -2.3 530.3 1.6 -2.3 721.3 -1.9 577.5 -2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-3.9 0.6 10.0 9.2

-4.5 -0.4 10.3 9.6

-4.6 -1.1 10.5 9.9

710.6 0.1 0.8 583.2 -0.4 0.1 528.2 -0.1 0.1 725.6 -0.1 578.9 -0.7

716.8 0.8 1.1 585.7 -0.1 3.1 531.1 -0.5 3.1 732.9 1.9 583.0 0.9

Personal Income and GSP 724.3 731.1 738.4 746.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.2 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.9 589.4 592.4 595.7 599.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 535.1 537.0 536.2 539.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 740.1 749.0 756.9 766.6 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.6 586.8 592.1 596.2 602.0 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.3

756.9 4.5 4.2 604.8 2.6 5.9 544.1 1.7 5.9 776.6 4.9 608.1 3.6

767.4 5.0 4.4 610.5 3.1 5.5 548.9 2.2 5.5 787.1 5.1 614.7 3.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) -1.6 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.5 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.2

779.2 5.5 4.7 617.3 3.6 5.7 551.1 2.8 5.7 799.7 5.7 622.0 4.3

791.9 6.0 5.1 624.7 4.2 5.9 557.1 3.2 5.9 812.8 6.0 630.1 4.7

804.8 6.3 5.3 631.8 4.5 6.3 561.9 3.3 6.3 825.2 6.3 637.4 4.8

816.8 6.4 5.4 638.2 4.5 6.5 566.3 3.2 6.5 837.0 6.3 644.2 4.8

1.5 0.7 9.5 9.0

1.6 0.8 9.2 8.7

1.9 0.9 8.9 8.4

1.9 1.0 8.7 8.2

2.2 2.6 -0.1 6.0 4.3 -0.1 6.6 5.2 4.5 -0.6 2.1 8.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 -0.4 0.1

2.4 3.0 0.9 7.4 4.6 0.1 6.8 5.6 5.0 0.6 2.5 8.9 1.3 1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.8

2.5 3.3 1.5 8.0 4.4 0.3 6.4 6.0 5.2 1.5 2.6 9.1 1.0 1.5 -0.4 0.1 1.3

2.6 3.3 1.6 8.0 4.1 0.3 6.0 6.2 5.6 1.4 2.5 8.6 1.0 1.6 0.1 0.3 2.1

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

-4.0 -5.1 -3.7 -19.0 -11.2 -10.2 -11.8 -5.9 -3.9 -5.9 -2.8 -10.6 2.3 -3.4 -7.3 0.2 -0.2

-4.2 -4.8 -6.1 -17.3 -13.4 -9.8 -15.2 -4.0 -4.2 -4.9 -2.2 -10.7 2.6 -2.5 -7.8 -1.6 -0.7

-3.5 -3.6 -9.0 -16.0 -14.1 -8.3 -16.8 -1.2 -2.9 -2.7 -1.2 -9.0 2.2 -0.7 -5.8 -1.3 -0.5

-2.1 -2.0 -8.6 -12.2 -11.9 -6.3 -14.6 -1.6 -2.1 -1.2 -0.2 -4.2 2.8 -0.6 -5.8 0.5 -0.5

-0.7 -0.6 -6.4 -10.5 -8.7 -5.5 -10.3 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.4 -0.6 3.4 0.0 -6.2 8.8 -0.4

0.0 0.2 -4.2 -9.9 -4.4 -4.5 -4.4 0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.3 2.2 3.7 0.4 -4.4 3.6 -0.4

0.5 0.7 -2.5 -7.7 -1.2 -3.5 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 0.5 -0.1 4.8 3.6 0.0 -1.9 0.0 -0.6

0.9 1.0 -1.5 -5.8 0.3 -2.5 1.8 0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 7.5 2.7 -0.1 1.7 -2.1 -0.5

1.2 1.3 -1.8 -2.3 2.0 -1.6 3.8 1.5 0.3 -1.3 0.3 9.2 2.2 0.0 4.9 -10.0 -0.4

1.6 1.8 -1.4 1.2 2.9 -0.9 4.8 2.8 1.8 -1.9 1.0 9.6 1.8 0.0 4.7 -4.1 -0.3

1.9 2.2 -0.7 3.5 3.7 -0.4 5.8 4.2 3.3 -1.3 1.6 8.8 1.6 0.5 2.5 -0.9 -0.1

Population and Migration Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

18439.1 18455.4 18472.2 18494.5 18518.1 18544.2 18573.8 18606.9 18642.9 18682.4 18725.1 18771.3 18820.8 18873.7 18930.6

0.6 3.7 -80.2

0.5 3.8 -79.9

0.4 4.4 -77.0

0.4 10.0 132.6

0.4 11.3 205.4

0.5 13.7 260.5

0.5 17.0 286.4

0.6 20.4 104.2

0.7 23.2 105.4

0.7 26.4 93.0

0.8 29.7 74.5

0.9 32.9 61.1

1.0 36.1 55.6

1.0 39.3 48.8

1.1 43.2 45.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

35.4 24.4 10.9

37.2 27.0 10.2

49.5 34.6 14.9

60.6 44.8 15.8

68.4 52.7 15.7

79.6 62.9 16.7

90.4 73.1 17.3

Housing 101.3 84.1 17.2

113.8 96.0 17.8

124.9 105.8 19.1

134.6 113.7 20.9

143.3 120.0 23.3

153.0 127.4 25.7

161.6 132.8 28.8

166.1 134.7 31.4

(%Ch Year ago)

-1.2

-2.6

-0.1

0.9

1.6

2.0

Consumer Prices 2.2 2.3 2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7401.6 7353.8 7344.1 7347.6 7360.7 7370.0 7392.0 7422.9 7459.5 7501.6 7551.7 7613.6 7681.0 7745.5 7803.0

Manufacturing

333.7

319.7

310.8

307.5

304.7

305.6

307.0

308.4

310.7

314.3

318.3

321.8

325.0

328.2

331.5

Durable Goods

222.9

210.8

203.5

201.5

200.0

201.6

203.5

205.2

207.6

211.2

215.2

218.7

221.8

224.8

228.1

Wood Products

11.6

11.0

10.9

11.0

11.2

11.7

12.0

12.3

12.6

12.9

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.7

13.9

Computer & Electronics

45.2

42.8

41.6

42.1

42.6

43.1

43.3

43.1

43.2

43.5

43.8

44.2

44.4

44.7

45.0

Transportation Equipment

39.2

38.3

37.6

37.5

37.4

37.5

37.7

38.0

38.4

38.8

39.3

39.7

40.1

40.4

40.8

110.8

108.8

107.2

105.9

104.7

104.0

103.5

103.3

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.2

103.3

103.4

27.4

27.0

26.9

26.8

26.8

26.8

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.6

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.8

26.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

7067.8 7034.1 7033.3 7040.1 7056.0 7064.4 7085.1 7114.4 7148.8 7187.3 7233.4 7291.8 7356.0 7417.3 7471.5 6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

423.7

411.8

399.7

390.3

379.3

371.1

369.1

367.6

370.5

375.5

381.9

389.7

398.1

405.4

412.5 257.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

233.2

232.1

232.7

233.0

232.7

232.7

232.5

233.6

236.1

239.3

242.3

245.8

249.4

253.5

Wholesale Trade

334.6

333.2

334.1

333.4

332.8

331.9

330.7

331.1

333.8

337.7

341.7

345.9

350.6

355.4

360.7

Retail Trade

938.6

936.3

935.3

938.9

941.2

942.0

940.1

936.1

928.5

924.2

927.5

930.2

933.8

938.0

940.9

145.7

143.0

141.8

139.5

136.6

136.7

139.1

141.9

143.3

143.1

142.6

142.4

142.4

142.5

142.7

Information Prof. & Business Services

1033.9 1019.3 1021.1 1022.5 1027.8 1042.1 1070.5 1098.8 1122.2 1142.5 1164.6 1194.0 1221.9 1246.8 1264.4

Admin. & Support

525.5

516.0

525.7

532.5

541.2

555.8

578.3

601.6

618.6

632.7

648.3

668.9

690.5

707.6

717.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

428.2

423.7

415.8

410.2

406.6

406.2

411.6

416.3

422.3

428.1

434.0

442.4

448.1

455.4

462.5

80.2

79.6

79.6

79.8

80.0

80.1

80.6

80.9

81.3

81.7

82.2

82.8

83.3

83.7

84.1

512.8

512.3

514.0

515.0

514.6

513.6

513.5

514.1

516.1

518.6

521.6

524.9

528.9

532.2

534.6

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent

173.4

173.6

174.7

175.8

175.8

176.0

176.3

176.7

177.2

177.8

178.5

179.2

180.0

180.7

181.3

Fin. & Insurance

339.4

338.7

339.4

339.2

338.8

337.6

337.3

337.5

338.8

340.7

343.1

345.7

348.9

351.5

353.3

Edu. & Health Service

1067.0 1074.5 1080.7 1091.8 1103.8 1114.7 1120.1 1121.7 1128.2 1134.7 1137.7 1139.6 1142.9 1146.3 1149.0

Education Services

139.0

138.8

139.4

140.2

140.1

140.3

140.5

140.2

139.9

139.6

139.3

Health Services

928.0

935.6

941.3

951.5

963.6

974.3

979.6

981.5

988.3

995.1

998.5 1000.7 1004.0 1007.3 1009.9

Leisure & Hospitality

918.7

916.6

917.6

917.3

918.7

920.1

917.6

916.8

918.3

919.8

922.5

926.2

929.8

933.4

937.7

Other Services

329.6

327.9

330.4

331.3

331.4

332.5

332.4

333.1

333.3

333.6

333.4

332.9

332.1

332.4

333.0

Government

139.0

139.0

139.1

139.1

1123.9 1121.2 1120.2 1121.4 1131.5 1121.4 1113.8 1114.0 1113.0 1112.8 1112.0 1114.5 1120.6 1125.8 1132.9

Federal Gov't.

129.8

127.9

128.1

130.1

141.2

132.4

128.1

127.4

127.1

127.0

126.9

127.0

127.0

127.1

State & Local Gov't.

994.1

993.3

992.1

991.3

990.2

988.9

985.7

986.6

985.9

985.8

985.1

987.6

993.5

998.7 1005.7

127.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7160.0

7169.1

7250.4

7499.3

7800.0

8002.4

8018.5

7761.1

7399.8

Manufacturing

443.4

416.7

409.8

410.7

415.5

416.4

399.0

372.6

328.3

Durable Goods

297.8

276.5

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

250.9

218.3

Wood Products

17.2

18.1

17.6

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

13.0

11.3

Computer & Electronics

67.2

59.1

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.2

Transportation Equipment

49.1

44.4

43.8

44.4

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

39.0

145.6

140.2

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

110.0

34.6

34.6

34.1

33.3

32.4

31.2

31.4

29.5

27.2

6716.6

6752.4

6840.5

7088.6

7384.6

7586.0

7619.5

7388.5

7071.4

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.4

6.0

Construction

469.6

475.1

519.7

568.5

633.1

677.9

618.5

512.8

419.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

243.8

236.8

234.7

238.3

247.3

250.9

251.0

244.1

233.7

Wholesale Trade

316.4

315.7

317.3

328.0

341.4

351.4

356.7

348.1

335.6

Retail Trade

933.0

921.6

928.4

953.7

993.1

1012.8

1017.5

988.2

940.1

Information

183.4

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

161.7

161.3

155.6

144.6

1110.7

1112.7

1020.3

1079.5

1155.5

1203.6

1211.9

1147.4

1035.3

Admin. & Support

678.2

673.6

563.7

600.6

646.8

672.9

670.9

610.3

530.2

Prof. Sci & Tech

366.6

370.1

384.9

404.0

431.1

451.4

460.0

455.3

425.2

65.8

69.0

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.3

81.0

81.9

79.9

Financial Activities

469.3

474.9

491.8

510.4

535.8

552.6

547.2

526.9

513.8

Real Estate & Rent

147.0

150.2

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

173.2

173.8

Fin. & Insurance

322.4

324.7

334.1

343.9

359.1

370.2

369.2

353.7

340.0

Edu. & Health Service

844.2

867.3

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.6

1024.1

1047.3

1071.1

Education Services

94.5

99.7

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

137.9

139.2

749.7

767.6

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

909.4

931.9

Leisure & Hospitality

815.5

818.9

862.0

899.9

924.3

937.7

956.4

942.9

918.9

Other Services

299.4

310.2

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.5

340.6

329.7

1023.3

1039.2

1053.0

1066.3

1081.1

1099.1

1122.6

1128.0

1122.7

Federal Gov't.

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.6

128.8

State & Local Gov't.

901.5

916.9

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.4

994.6

998.4

993.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Health Services

Government

Continued 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7367.6

7483.9

7710.8

7930.0

8103.2

8300.9

8479.3

8653.0

8854.8

9054.2

Manufacturing

306.2

312.9

326.6

338.3

342.7

343.5

343.1

342.3

342.2

341.9

Durable Goods

201.6

209.8

223.3

234.5

238.8

239.9

239.8

239.1

239.1

239.0

Wood Products

11.5

12.7

13.7

14.1

14.1

14.2

14.3

14.3

14.2

14.2

Computer & Electronics

42.8

43.4

44.6

44.9

44.0

43.7

43.6

43.4

43.5

43.4

Transportation Equipment

37.5

38.6

40.2

41.5

42.0

42.0

41.2

40.2

39.5

38.9

104.5

103.1

103.3

103.7

103.8

103.6

103.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

26.8

26.7

26.8

26.8

26.8

26.7

26.7

26.6

26.5

26.5

7061.4

7171.0

7384.2

7591.8

7760.5

7957.4

8136.2

8310.7

8512.6

8712.3

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.1

5.0

Construction

377.4

373.9

401.4

429.6

453.8

475.8

495.7

515.0

537.4

554.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

232.7

237.8

251.5

264.2

272.1

280.2

288.6

296.9

306.2

314.3

Wholesale Trade

332.2

336.1

353.2

372.0

381.5

389.9

395.9

402.3

412.5

423.8

Retail Trade

940.6

929.1

935.7

957.8

978.2

994.4

995.7

993.8

997.9

1006.4

Information

138.0

142.7

142.5

144.6

147.1

149.5

152.9

156.1

159.3

162.3

1040.7

1132.0

1231.8

1292.6

1350.6

1441.6

1528.9

1621.6

1732.0

1836.7

Admin. & Support

551.9

625.3

696.2

733.1

774.4

850.0

922.4

999.8

1089.6

1167.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

408.7

425.2

452.1

474.3

489.0

501.9

514.2

527.0

544.6

568.8

80.1

81.5

83.5

85.2

87.2

89.7

92.2

94.8

97.8

100.6

Financial Activities

514.2

517.6

530.1

537.6

539.9

545.4

550.5

554.3

558.1

564.1

Real Estate & Rent

176.0

177.5

180.3

182.4

183.7

184.9

185.6

186.9

188.3

190.1

Fin. & Insurance

338.2

340.0

349.8

355.2

356.2

360.5

364.8

367.4

369.7

374.1

Edu. & Health Service

1107.6

1130.6

1144.5

1160.3

1184.2

1212.9

1242.9

1268.4

1291.6

1314.1

Education Services

140.3

139.7

139.0

139.0

138.2

139.0

140.4

141.7

143.6

145.9

Health Services

967.3

990.8

1005.4

1021.2

1046.0

1074.0

1102.5

1126.7

1148.1

1168.2

Leisure & Hospitality

918.4

919.3

931.8

944.4

947.6

947.6

951.1

954.8

957.2

962.7

Other Services

331.9

333.4

332.6

334.6

338.8

340.9

343.5

345.6

346.6

347.0

1122.0

1112.9

1123.5

1148.6

1161.1

1173.4

1185.2

1196.7

1208.8

1221.1

Federal Gov't.

133.0

127.1

127.1

127.5

127.9

128.7

129.7

130.7

131.8

132.8

State & Local Gov't.

989.1

985.8

996.4

1021.1

1033.2

1044.7

1055.5

1065.9

1077.0

1088.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

9252.0

9439.5

9615.1

9789.3

Manufacturing

340.5

337.2

332.1

327.5

323.6

320.3

317.9

315.5

313.0

310.6

Durable Goods

238.0

235.4

231.4

227.8

224.7

222.3

220.8

219.3

217.6

216.1

Wood Products

14.2

14.1

13.9

13.8

13.7

13.7

13.7

13.7

13.5

13.4

Computer & Electronics

43.1

42.8

42.3

41.8

41.3

40.9

40.6

40.4

40.4

40.4

Transportation Equipment

38.1

37.2

36.2

35.3

34.4

33.7

33.2

32.7

32.3

31.8

102.5

101.8

100.7

99.7

98.9

98.0

97.1

96.2

95.4

94.5

26.4

26.3

26.3

26.2

26.2

26.1

26.1

26.0

25.9

25.9

8911.5

9102.3

9283.0

9461.8

9646.7

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

Construction

570.6

586.9

602.8

618.8

635.7

656.1

677.4

697.2

715.4

733.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

320.1

326.6

333.4

340.2

347.2

353.9

360.3

365.2

369.3

372.4

Wholesale Trade

435.9

447.9

458.9

468.6

478.2

487.5

496.2

503.8

511.0

515.9

Retail Trade

1018.8

1029.6

1039.0

1048.1

1057.1

1065.0

1072.6

1081.8

1092.3

1104.3

Information

164.6

167.3

170.3

173.7

177.3

181.0

185.2

189.7

194.7

200.1

1935.8

2027.9

2112.7

2197.9

2287.9

2388.7

2488.9

2591.9

2705.0

2818.0

1235.5

1296.9

1349.6

1401.1

1456.9

1522.5

1586.6

1653.1

1729.4

1804.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

596.7

624.2

653.1

683.7

714.9

747.0

780.2

813.6

847.5

883.1

Mgmt. of Co.

103.6

106.8

110.0

113.1

116.1

119.1

122.2

125.2

128.1

131.0

Financial Activities

572.8

580.5

586.8

591.9

597.0

604.1

610.8

616.7

622.9

630.3

Real Estate & Rent

191.9

193.6

195.3

196.9

198.6

200.4

202.2

203.8

205.4

207.0

Fin. & Insurance

381.0

386.9

391.5

395.0

398.4

403.7

408.6

412.9

417.5

423.3

1335.5

1353.3

1369.9

1387.4

1405.1

1421.1

1436.3

1453.1

1470.9

1490.1

148.1

150.2

152.2

154.1

156.0

158.1

160.2

162.3

164.6

167.0

1187.4

1203.1

1217.7

1233.3

1249.1

1263.0

1276.1

1290.8

1306.3

1323.1

Leisure & Hospitality

970.5

978.9

988.2

996.9

1006.5

1015.9

1024.6

1034.4

1044.4

1056.7

Other Services

347.9

351.3

356.9

362.4

367.4

372.1

377.6

383.7

390.0

396.3

1234.0

1247.1

1259.5

1271.4

1282.8

1294.6

1306.6

1318.2

1329.5

1340.5

133.8

135.1

136.2

137.3

138.5

139.7

140.8

142.0

143.2

144.4

1100.2

1112.1

1123.3

1134.0

1144.3

1154.9

1165.8

1176.2

1186.3

1196.1

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services

Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

9970.3 10164.8 10358.9 10555.7 10762.8 10972.8

9844.5 10040.9 10240.2 10449.8 10662.2

Continued 20

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

11177.6 11347.4 11514.7 11684.9 11868.4 12059.2 12264.6 12511.7 12773.7 13047.3

Manufacturing

308.9

307.3

305.1

303.0

301.3

299.9

298.7

298.2

298.4

299.0

Durable Goods

215.3

214.5

213.0

211.8

211.0

210.6

210.4

210.7

211.8

213.2

Wood Products

13.4

13.4

13.3

13.2

13.2

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

Computer & Electronics

40.6

40.7

41.0

41.2

41.6

41.9

42.3

42.7

43.2

43.7

Transportation Equipment

31.6

31.1

30.4

29.8

29.3

28.9

28.6

28.2

27.9

27.7

Nondurables

93.6

92.8

92.1

91.2

90.3

89.3

88.3

87.4

86.6

85.8

Foods

25.8

25.8

25.7

25.7

25.6

25.6

25.5

25.5

25.4

25.3

Non-Manufacturing Mining

10868.7 11040.1 11209.6 11381.9 11567.2 11759.3 11965.8 12213.6 12475.3 12748.3 4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

Construction

753.6

771.9

788.1

803.5

818.3

833.0

849.6

868.4

887.4

907.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

376.1

379.0

380.2

378.3

376.3

373.7

371.1

369.2

366.7

364.1

Wholesale Trade

520.9

524.0

526.5

527.7

528.7

529.0

529.4

530.6

531.9

533.2

Retail Trade

1115.1

1125.2

1135.4

1146.6

1157.2

1167.9

1177.9

1190.5

1202.2

1213.1

Information

205.6

210.9

216.2

221.3

226.9

232.3

237.9

244.3

251.3

258.6

2919.2

3002.7

3088.1

3179.9

3285.6

3399.7

3528.7

3683.2

3853.6

4036.7

1863.7

1903.8

1943.6

1988.2

2042.8

2103.9

2177.9

2275.1

2386.7

2507.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

921.6

962.2

1004.9

1049.2

1097.1

1146.8

1198.4

1252.0

1307.1

1365.1

Mgmt. of Co.

133.8

136.7

139.6

142.6

145.7

149.0

152.5

156.0

159.8

163.8

Financial Activities

639.1

646.4

652.6

659.0

666.9

674.9

682.6

691.3

699.9

708.2

Real Estate & Rent

208.7

210.3

211.7

213.1

214.7

216.3

217.9

219.5

221.2

222.8

Fin. & Insurance

430.4

436.1

440.8

445.8

452.1

458.6

464.7

471.7

478.6

485.4

1509.6

1526.4

1542.9

1558.5

1574.2

1588.1

1600.9

1615.7

1629.2

1641.4

169.3

171.2

172.9

174.5

176.2

178.0

179.8

182.1

184.7

187.3

1340.3

1355.2

1370.0

1384.0

1397.9

1410.2

1421.1

1433.6

1444.6

1454.1

1067.8

1079.6

1089.3

1100.1

1109.7

1120.7

1130.4

1143.9

1157.7

1170.0

402.7

408.9

415.3

420.8

426.7

432.6

438.7

445.9

453.4

460.9

1354.8

1360.8

1370.9

1381.9

1392.4

1403.3

1414.6

1426.3

1438.0

1450.5

149.4

146.9

148.1

149.4

150.6

151.9

153.1

154.4

155.7

156.8

1205.4

1213.9

1222.8

1232.6

1241.8

1251.4

1261.4

1271.9

1282.3

1293.7

Prof. & Business Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

710.8

703.4

705.7

710.6

716.8

724.3

731.1

738.4

746.9

756.9

767.4

779.2

791.9

804.8

816.8

Wages & Salaries

328.5

328.0

329.5

331.6

333.7

335.8

338.6

342.1

345.3

348.8

352.9

358.0

363.4

368.8

374.1

Other Labor Income

73.9

74.4

74.8

75.9

76.9

78.0

78.9

79.9

81.1

82.2

83.3

84.4

85.8

87.2

88.6

Nonfarm

37.7

38.0

38.4

38.7

39.3

39.7

40.4

41.0

41.7

42.2

42.8

43.6

44.4

45.1

45.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Property Income

180.3

176.0

174.9

175.7

177.6

180.3

182.4

184.2

186.7

190.4

193.9

197.8

201.8

205.8

209.5

Transfer Payments

Farm

138.9

135.4

135.6

137.1

137.8

139.2

140.0

141.4

142.9

144.4

146.2

148.4

150.4

152.4

154.4

Social Insurance

50.6

50.5

49.8

50.6

50.8

51.1

51.5

52.6

53.1

53.5

54.2

55.5

56.3

57.2

58.2

Personal Income

586.6

580.5

581.1

583.2

585.7

589.4

592.4

595.7

599.6

604.8

610.5

617.3

624.7

631.8

638.2

Wages & Salaries

271.1

270.7

271.3

272.1

272.7

273.3

274.4

276.0

277.2

278.7

280.7

283.6

286.6

289.6

292.3

Billions 2000 Dollars

Other Labor Income

61.0

61.4

61.6

62.3

62.9

63.5

63.9

64.5

65.1

65.7

66.3

66.9

67.7

68.5

69.2

Nonfarm

31.1

31.3

31.6

31.8

32.1

32.3

32.7

33.1

33.5

33.7

34.1

34.5

35.0

35.4

35.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Property Income

148.8

145.2

144.0

144.2

145.1

146.8

147.8

148.6

149.8

152.1

154.3

156.7

159.2

161.6

163.7

Transfer Payments

114.6

111.7

111.7

112.5

112.6

113.3

113.4

114.1

114.7

115.4

116.3

117.6

118.6

119.7

120.6

41.8

41.7

41.0

41.6

41.5

41.6

41.8

42.4

42.6

42.8

43.1

44.0

44.4

44.9

45.5

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

670.9

722.8

769.7

805.2

833.9

880.8

924.3

961.0 1006.3 1049.5 1097.2 1137.2 1169.9 1197.4 1216.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

243.3

243.4

245.7

248.0

251.2

255.0

258.5

261.1

264.7

269.2

274.4

278.8

283.1

287.1

291.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

200.8

200.8

202.3

203.5

205.3

207.5

209.5

210.7

212.5

215.1

218.3

220.9

223.4

225.4

227.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

22

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.7

614.4

668.5

699.2

716.1

707.4

Wages & Salaries

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.5

303.0

325.2

335.4

334.6

329.1

Other Labor Income

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

68.2

71.0

72.1

72.7

74.1

Nonfarm

27.6

29.0

30.7

33.8

37.0

39.9

39.8

39.6

38.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

122.9

122.0

120.1

136.7

152.1

176.7

190.5

197.4

179.4

Transfer Payments

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.6

98.5

103.6

110.4

120.9

134.8

Social Insurance

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.5

46.4

49.8

51.0

51.1

50.4

Farm Property Income

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.8

550.6

582.9

594.2

588.9

583.4

Wages & Salaries

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.8

271.5

283.6

285.1

275.2

271.4

Other Labor Income

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

61.1

61.9

61.3

59.8

61.1

Nonfarm

27.1

28.1

29.1

31.2

33.2

34.8

33.8

32.6

31.5

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.0

136.3

154.0

161.9

162.3

148.0

Transfer Payments

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.2

88.3

90.3

93.9

99.4

111.2

Social Insurance

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.2

41.5

43.4

43.4

42.1

41.6

1405.4

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

714.6

Retail Sales (Billions $)

191.2

196.6

206.5

225.2

245.1

264.9

272.7

268.1

244.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

187.2

189.9

195.5

207.8

219.7

231.0

231.8

220.5

202.0

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

720.7

752.4

798.2

849.6

901.8

960.9

1021.0

1084.1

1154.6

1233.9

Wages & Salaries

334.9

347.3

366.1

387.3

408.1

431.6

455.2

479.7

507.2

535.7

Other Labor Income

77.4

81.6

86.5

92.1

97.5

103.2

109.0

115.2

122.1

129.5

Nonfarm

39.5

41.9

44.7

47.3

49.8

52.8

56.1

59.7

63.8

68.7

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

Property Income

179.0

188.8

203.7

221.3

239.3

259.6

279.5

299.9

322.8

351.3

Transfer Payments

138.5

143.7

151.4

159.8

169.2

180.2

192.0

205.0

219.1

234.4

51.0

53.3

56.8

60.8

64.9

69.4

74.0

78.8

84.0

89.6

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

587.7

602.7

628.0

656.2

684.6

716.7

747.5

778.4

812.7

851.8

Wages & Salaries

273.1

278.2

288.0

299.2

309.8

321.9

333.2

344.4

357.0

369.8

Other Labor Income

63.1

65.4

68.1

71.1

74.0

76.9

79.8

82.7

86.0

89.4

Nonfarm

32.2

33.6

35.2

36.5

37.8

39.4

41.1

42.8

44.9

47.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

146.0

151.2

160.3

170.9

181.6

193.6

204.6

215.3

227.2

242.5

Transfer Payments

112.9

115.1

119.1

123.5

128.5

134.4

140.6

147.2

154.2

161.8

41.6

42.7

44.7

47.0

49.3

51.7

54.2

56.6

59.1

61.9

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

861.1

1028.5

1180.3

1252.7

1314.8

1367.5

1371.4

1371.3

1375.5

1391.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

253.2

267.4

285.0

299.0

313.2

332.4

351.5

369.8

390.3

413.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

206.5

214.2

224.3

231.0

237.8

247.9

257.4

265.5

274.7

285.4

Farm

Social Insurance

Continued 24

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1321.7

1413.3

1506.9

1603.8

1703.1

1806.7

1915.3

2028.8

2147.8

2270.5

Wages & Salaries

566.0

597.3

628.4

660.9

694.9

731.1

768.9

808.7

851.1

895.1

Other Labor Income

137.1

145.0

152.9

161.4

170.5

180.3

190.6

201.3

212.7

224.6

73.9

79.4

85.0

90.3

95.7

101.3

107.2

113.3

119.7

126.2

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

Property Income

384.1

417.2

450.1

483.3

515.2

547.8

581.8

616.8

653.1

690.2

Transfer Payments

251.2

270.4

292.1

315.2

339.5

365.1

392.0

420.3

449.7

480.0

94.9

100.7

106.6

112.4

118.4

124.7

131.3

138.1

145.3

152.8

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

895.6

940.2

984.8

1029.3

1073.2

1118.0

1163.6

1209.8

1256.4

1303.1

Wages & Salaries

383.6

397.4

410.7

424.2

437.9

452.4

467.1

482.3

497.9

513.7

Other Labor Income

92.9

96.5

99.9

103.6

107.5

111.6

115.8

120.0

124.4

128.9

Nonfarm

50.1

52.8

55.5

58.0

60.3

62.7

65.1

67.6

70.0

72.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

260.2

277.5

294.2

310.2

324.7

339.0

353.5

367.8

382.1

396.1

Transfer Payments

170.2

179.9

190.9

202.3

214.0

225.9

238.2

250.6

263.1

275.5

64.3

67.0

69.7

72.2

74.6

77.1

79.8

82.3

85.0

87.7

1410.8

1420.2

1429.8

1440.6

1455.7

1475.7

1496.2

1516.4

1537.2

1560.5

Retail Sales (Billions $)

438.6

464.1

490.3

518.2

547.0

577.6

609.9

643.6

679.4

716.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

297.2

308.8

320.4

332.6

344.7

357.5

370.6

383.8

397.4

411.4

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2398.8

2529.5

2666.4

2810.0

2963.5

3127.0

3303.1

3494.1

3697.2

3911.9

Wages & Salaries

940.5

984.0

1029.3

1075.9

1125.8

1178.6

1236.3

1300.8

1369.0

1440.6

Other Labor Income

237.0

249.5

262.2

275.6

289.7

304.8

321.0

338.9

358.1

378.5

Nonfarm

133.2

140.5

148.0

155.7

164.1

172.6

181.7

191.4

201.6

212.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Property Income

729.2

770.9

815.3

862.8

914.0

968.9

1027.9

1090.6

1156.9

1227.1

Transfer Payments

511.7

544.6

578.9

614.7

652.6

693.0

736.1

782.3

832.1

885.1

Social Insurance

160.5

168.2

176.0

184.0

192.5

201.4

211.0

221.7

233.0

245.1

Farm

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

1350.2

1396.4

1443.6

1492.5

1544.4

1599.2

1657.5

1720.5

1786.4

1854.5

Wages & Salaries

529.4

543.2

557.3

571.5

586.7

602.7

620.4

640.5

661.5

683.0

Other Labor Income

133.4

137.7

142.0

146.4

151.0

155.9

161.1

166.9

173.0

179.4

75.0

77.5

80.1

82.7

85.5

88.3

91.2

94.2

97.4

100.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

410.4

425.6

441.4

458.3

476.3

495.5

515.8

537.0

559.0

581.8

Transfer Payments

288.0

300.7

313.4

326.5

340.1

354.4

369.4

385.2

402.1

419.6

90.3

92.8

95.3

97.8

100.3

103.0

105.9

109.1

112.6

116.2

1590.0

1619.7

1646.2

1669.5

1694.2

1717.5

1744.3

1773.9

1803.2

1838.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

756.7

798.6

842.2

888.4

937.8

989.0

1044.0

1102.9

1165.9

1233.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

426.0

440.9

456.0

471.9

488.7

505.8

523.9

543.1

563.3

584.9

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

26

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Florida Federal Govern Employment 160.0

Ju n e 2 0 0 9

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026

C H A RTS

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

(Thousands)


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

28

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment 750.0 700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

30

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(Thousands)

250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Information Employment 280.0

(Thousands)

260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

32

(percent ch. year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Employment 14000.0

(Thousands)

12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income 10%

(percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Population (Thousands)

30000.0 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 4500.0 4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

34

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

36

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


F l o r i d a Ne w s Summa r ie s

Floridians could face millions in higher fees

Florida’s plan for renewables was a lot of wasted energy

• State lawmakers are planning on fee increases of more than $600 million to help cover Florida’s budget deficit. • The fees are generally preferred over taxes. Examples of fees include those for car registration, lawsuit filing, and fishing licenses.

• In 2008, the state legislature ordered state regulators to determine how much of the energy the state is using should come from renewable sources. • The effort was disregarded when the 2009 legislature failed to pass the renewable-energy bill. • Many public and private businesses and organizations are considered victims of this wasted work and investment; the legislation could have also created many jobs.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, April 9, 2009 Bright Futures may fade for many

• State legislators have decided to raise base tuition by 8% and allow all 11 state universities to charge up to an additional 7% differential fee. • None of the increases will be covered by Bright Futures, as lawmakers are looking for more ways to cut spending in Florida’s meager budget. • Bright Futures paid most of tuition for 90% of incoming freshmen in 2007. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 4, 2009 Reports: Wells Fargo needs $15B

• According to reports from the U.S. Treasury Dept’s bank “stress tests,” Florida’s largest bank, Wells Fargo, will need $15 billion in new capital to remain strong and stable. • Wells Fargo is among many other banks that will need to bolster capital under this federal evaluation. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 7, 2009 Insurance industry warns of tenuous financial state

• Insurance experts have a warning for Florida: our state lacks the financial backing to withstand a severe, Katrina-sized hurricane. • Artificially low insurance rates have left residents at great financial risk. • State government has blocked insurers from raising rates, causing companies to pull out of the Florida market. Forty percent of those who stay posted a net loss in 2008. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 15, 2009

Source: Miami Herald, May 25, 2009 Florida lawmakers tap condo fund as owners’ complaints rise

• The Florida legislature ended the legislative session without addressing condo foreclosure reform. • Because of the state budget, the legislature took $6 million from the condominium, timeshare, and mobile home trust fund, among other funds, to cover a $6-billion budget shortfall. • These actions draw ire from Florida’s 1.5 million condo owners in need of assistance. Source: Miami Herald, May 27, 2009 Crist signs growth overhaul for Florida, acknowledges concerns

• Governor Charlie Crist approved changes to Florida’s 25-year-old growth management law. • The changes allow developers in most urban counties to add more housing developments without expanding roads; the law also allows counties and cities to designate new urban areas, exempt from certain roadbuilding requirements. • Supporters say it will strengthen the economy; opponents predict increased urban sprawl, traffic gridlock, and environmental concerns. Source: St. Petersburg Times, June 2, 2009 Workers’ comp rate rollback approved

• A rollback in workers’ compensation rates has been approved by the Florida Insurance Commissioner in response to a new law that caps plaintiffs’ attorney fees. • The law, passed in May, was a reaction to the Florida Supreme Court ruling that would have allowed lawyers to receive higher fees to represent injured workers. • Florida’s workers’ comp rates were among the highest in the nation before a 2003 cap on attorney fees. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, June 3, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


Metros

Ju n e 2 0 0 9

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area is expected to show positive growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 2.9 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be one of the lowest in the state at 26.3. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 36.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent. This is the only metro area with declining population growth, averaging a decline of -0.1 percent every year. Gross Metro Product level will be 12,937.2 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average -0.2 percent each year. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 10.8 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Education and Health Services sector, with an average growth rate of 2.1 percent annually. Next, the Federal Government sector will experience 0.5 percent annual growth. The Leisure sector follows with an annual rate of 0.3 percent. The sectors that will experience the greatest decline are the Construction & Mining and Manufacturing sectors. Both of these sectors will have average annual declines of -2.6 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 498,036 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 255,020 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 26,256 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,351 employees • Halifax Health – 4,327 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,728 employees • Florida Hospital – All divisions – 3,547 employees • State Government – 3,038 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,908 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,758 employees • Daytona State College – 1,933 employees • Federal Government – 1,437 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,225 employees Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Flagler County approves land buy • County Commissioners voted to spend over $7 million in environmentally sensitive land funds to expand two Flagler County parks. • The lone dissenter, Commissioner Alan Peterson, voted against spending $1.5 million on a parcel of land recently appraised to be worth $1.2 million, saying that asking 25% over market value was an attempt to alleviate lost value on the investment and the purchase was not critical. • Commissioners were unanimous in approving the purchase of an addition to oceanfront Bay Drive Park for $5.8 million, a property valued at $6.4 million in 2008 and $5.4 million in April 2009. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 5, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Daytona facing budget woes again • As a result of diminishing city revenues and an overall grim economic climate, an early Daytona budget draft proposes cuts that would yield the lowest city staffing since 1988. • Officials are proposing cutting the Personal Services industry by $1.2 million, a decision that could eliminate 16 full-time Personal Service jobs for the second year in a row and leave the city with 100 fewer positions than 3 years ago. • City officials are also proposing cutting health care costs by 11.5% and reducing the overtime pay and police vehicle and equipment costs in the face of a $4-million drop in property tax revenue since 2007. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 7, 2009 Waiver means millions for local schools • $20.5 million of Florida’s $1.8 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds allocated by the U.S. Department of Education will go to offset cuts in Volusia County schools’ 2009-2010 budget. • Even with the funds, Volusia County schools will end up $9.7 million short of the previous year. • Florida has had to waive a “Maintenance of Effort” requirement, demanding that spending remain at 2006 levels in an effort to reduce costs in the midst of recession. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 12, 2009 Striking Out: Economy hits local diamonds • A South Daytona annual golf tournament aimed at raising money for little league baseball teams was canceled due to lack of participation and sponsorship, depriving the teams of roughly $7,000 in donations that fund anything from jerseys to bus and hotel fares. • Youth baseball diamonds in Daytona and across Florida have struggled to fundraise and attain sponsorships from hurting businesses, a trend that has transferred more of the cost of operating a little league team to the parents.

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• According to Norm Yelverton who oversees South Daytona athletics, the economic crunch has forced travel teams to travel less and play fewer home games. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 14, 2009 Volusia damage estimate: $52 million • Historic rainfall of 24-28 inches around Volusia and Flagler County has caused damage to approximately 976 properties at a cost of roughly $52 million. • The Daytona Beach Commission met to declare a state of emergency and will meet with organizations, such as FEMA and the Small Business Administration, in hopes of garnering federal disaster relief support. • Property damage must total more than $1.8 million to qualify for federal relief. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 22, 2009


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8.0%

30000.0

6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

1.2

1.4

1.6

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Deltona Payroll Employment

(percent change year ago)

2.0%

20000.0

0.0%

15000.0

-2.0%

10000.0 5000.0

1

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0

0.8

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate (percent)

0.6

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.4 -1.3 5.7 9.7

15.2 -1.6 5.7 9.5

15.3 -0.7 5.7 9.6

15.4 0.2 5.8 9.6

15.5 1 5.8 9.7

15.7 3.2 5.9 9.9

15.9 3.8 5.9 10

16 4.1 5.9 10.1

16.2 4.4 6 10.2

16.5 4.7 6.1 10.4

16.7 5.1 6.1 10.6

16.9 5.6 6.2 10.7

17.2 6 6.3 10.9

17.5 6.2 6.4 11.1

17.7 6.2 6.4 11.3

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 -1

12.6 -0.1

12.6 -0.6

12.6 -0.3

12.7 0

12.8 1.7

12.9 2.1

12.9 2.3

13 2.6

13.2 2.8

13.3 3.2

13.4 3.6

13.6 4.1

13.7 4.4

13.9 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31.1 25.6

30.8 25.4

30.9 25.5

31.1 25.6

31.4 25.7

31.8 25.9

32.1 26

32.4 26.2

32.8 26.3

33.3 26.6

33.7 26.8

34.1 27

34.6 27.3

35.2 27.6

35.6 27.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 3.3

35.8 2.8

36 2.4

36.2 2.5

36.3 2

36.5 2

36.7 1.9

36.9 1.9

37 1.9

37.2 1.9

37.3 1.9

37.6 1.9

37.8 2.1

38 2.3

38.3 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

159.3 -5

158.6 -3.9

158.3 -3

158.6 -2.5

159 -0.2

159.4 0.5

159.7 0.9

160.3 1

161.1 1.3

161.9 1.6

162.8 1.9

163.7 2.1

165 2.4

166.2 2.6

167.3 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -9.9

8 -11.6

7.8 -12.6

7.7 -11.6

7.7 -8.3

7.7 -4.1

7.7 -0.9

7.8 0.7

7.8 2.3

7.9 3.2

8 4.1

8.2 4.8

8.2 5

8.3 4.8

8.4 4.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151 -4.7

150.5 -3.5

150.5 -2.4

150.9 -2

151.4 0.3

151.7 0.8

152 1

152.5 1.1

153.2 1.2

154 1.5

154.8 1.8

155.6 2

156.8 2.3

157.9 2.5

158.9 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 -9.5

10.2 -8.7

10 -9.4

9.8 -11.3

9.5 -9.3

9.3 -8.8

9.3 -6.7

9.3 -4.9

9.4 -1.4

9.5 2.2

9.7 4.4

9.9 7

10.2 8.4

10.4 9

10.6 8.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 -6.9

30.3 -4.6

30.4 -2

30.5 -1.1

30.6 0.4

30.6 1

30.6 0.8

30.6 0.5

30.6 0

30.6 -0.1

30.7 0.4

30.9 0.8

31.1 1.7

31.3 2.4

31.5 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 23 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.3 22.9 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.2 23.1 2.3

5.2 23.1 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.2 23 2.3

5.3 22.8 2.3

5.4 22.7 2.4

5.4 22.8 2.4

5.5 22.9 2.4

5.6 23 2.5

5.7 23.1 2.5

5.8 23.2 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -6.8

2.4 -6.5

2.4 -3.6

2.4 -4.5

2.3 -5.7

2.3 -3.6

2.4 -1.6

2.4 2.3

2.5 6

2.5 5.8

2.5 3.6

2.5 1.1

2.5 -0.2

2.5 0.2

2.5 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 -7.8

7.2 -4.6

7.3 -1

7.3 0.2

7.3 0.8

7.3 0.6

7.3 0.1

7.3 0

7.3 0.4

7.4 1.1

7.4 1.7

7.4 2

7.5 2.3

7.5 2.5

7.6 2.4

14.1 -19.3

14 -17.7

14 -17.1

14 -13.1

14.1 -0.3

14.3 1.9

14.6 4.8

15 7.5

15.3 9

15.6 9.5

15.9 8.6

16.2 8

16.5 7.7

16.8 7.4

17 6.9

32 1.1

32.3 1.8

32.5 2.5

32.9 3.3

33.4 4.3

33.7 4.5

33.9 4.2

33.9 3

34.2 2.4

34.4 2

34.5 1.7

34.4 1.4

34.5 1.1

34.6 0.8

34.7 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 0.1

22.6 0.9

22.6 1.6

22.5 -1.3

22.5 -0.8

22.5 -0.4

22.4 -0.7

22.4 -0.6

22.4 -0.4

22.5 -0.1

22.5 0.6

22.6 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.5

22.9 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -0.9

7.9 -1

7.9 0

8 0.1

8 0.7

8 1.6

8 0.8

8 0.7

8 0.7

8 0.5

8 0.5

8 0

8 -0.4

8 -0.4

8 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.2

1.4 -0.3

1.4 1

1.5 5.6

1.6 13.3

1.5 6.9

1.4 2.2

1.4 -4.1

1.4 -11

1.4 -5.2

1.4 -1.4

1.4 0

1.4 0.4

1.4 0.7

1.4 1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 -1

22.2 -0.9

22.2 -1

22.1 -0.4

22.1 -0.2

22.1 -0.2

22.1 -0.4

22.1 -0.2

22.1 -0.3

22.1 -0.1

22.1 0.2

22.2 0.4

22.3 1.1

22.4 1.5

22.6 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12411.4

12400

12427.2

12469.6

12566.3

12650.7

12756.7

12841.3

12973.6

13109.7

13247.4

13391.1

13563.6

13716.9

13857.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.7 -0.5

495.1 -0.5

494.8 -0.5

494.7 -0.4

494.7 -0.2

494.5 -0.1

494.7 0

494.5 0

494.7 0

494.9 0.1

495.3 0.1

495.9 0.3

496.6 0.4

497.3 0.5

498.2 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

258.3 2.4

258.4 1.9

258.8 0.6

259.4 0.5

260.2 0.8

260.9 1

261.5 1.1

262.1 1

262.4 0.9

262.9 0.8

263.3 0.7

263.8 0.6

264.4 0.7

265 0.8

265.7 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.9

11.3

11.5

11.7

11.8

11.7

11.4

11.1

10.8

10.7

10.4

10.3

10

9.7

9.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

855 673 183

972 813 159

1305 1055 249

1691 1409 281

1987 1693 294

2354 2025 329

2673 2325 349

3010 2667 343

3360 3007 353

3622 3249 373

3828 3429 398

3999 3554 445

4230 3738 491

4414 3867 547

4484 3896 589

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1

11.8 4 4.6 7.2

13 9.7 5 8

13.7 5.9 5.3 8.4

14.7 7 5.8 8.9

15.2 3.3 5.9 9.3

15.5 1.9 5.8 9.7

15.3 -0.9 5.7 9.6

15.6 2 5.8 9.8

11 2.3

11.2 2

12 6.9

12.3 2.9

12.8 4.2

12.9 0.7

12.7 -1.4

12.6 -0.6

12.8 0.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.7 23.9

25.3 23.9

27.1 25

28.2 25.3

29.7 25.9

30.4 25.8

31.1 25.6

30.9 25.5

31.6 25.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 4

28.7 3.8

29.9 4.3

30.8 3.2

32.8 6.3

33.9 3.3

34.6 2.3

35.6 2.9

36.4 2.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

153.8 1.9

158.6 3.1

165.4 4.3

171.8 3.9

174.9 1.8

173.5 -0.8

166.9 -3.8

159.7 -4.3

159.2 -0.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -7.3

9.4 -1.5

9.8 3.9

10.2 4.3

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.3 -10.4

8.2 -11.2

7.7 -6.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

144.2 2.6

149.1 3.4

155.6 4.3

161.6 3.9

164.3 1.6

163.1 -0.7

157.7 -3.4

151.5 -3.9

151.5 0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 8.3

11.5 7.9

12.9 12.8

14.8 14.5

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.4

11.5 -19.1

10.4 -9.5

9.5 -9.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.9 -0.6

31.5 1.6

32 1.7

33.2 3.7

33.2 0.1

33.6 1.1

32.2 -4.1

30.5 -5.4

30.6 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.7 23.6 2.7

4.6 24.3 2.6

4.7 25 2.3

4.8 26 2.4

5 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.3 24.5 2.4

5.3 23 2.3

5.2 23.1 2.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -12.2

2.3 -7.6

2.3 -2.5

2.2 -3.3

2.4 8.3

2.5 5.2

2.6 4

2.5 -5.9

2.4 -3.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -2.3

6.5 1.2

6.9 7.2

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 2.2

7.7 -3.9

7.3 -6

7.3 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 3.8

17.4 6.3

19.1 9.8

20.6 7.7

20.4 -0.9

19 -6.7

17.4 -8.4

14.6 -16.4

14.2 -2.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 7.7

30.1 6.7

30.7 1.9

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.8 4

32.2 1.1

33.5 4.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 0.8

20 2.2

21.1 5.3

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.6 0.1

22.7 0.5

22.5 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 6.8

7.8 2.9

8.2 4

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8 -1.8

7.9 -0.7

8 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 2.5

1.4 2.5

1.4 0

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0

1.4 0.1

1.5 7

20.6 0.9

20.7 0.5

21.1 2.1

21.8 3.5

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.4

22.5 -2.9

22.2 -1.3

22.1 -0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

10600.3

11228.9

11909.3

12840

13258.1

13187

13007

12462.8

12610.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

459.2 1.6

467.3 1.8

477.6 2.2

486.9 2

495.3 1.7

499.1 0.8

497.8 -0.3

495.6 -0.4

494.6 -0.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

221.1 3.3

227 2.7

232.9 2.6

240.9 3.4

246.6 2.3

250.5 1.6

253.8 1.3

258.4 1.8

260.5 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.1

4.5

3.7

3.3

4.1

6.6

11

11.6

4785 4136 649

6171 4990 1181

6179 4779 1401

6363 5121 1242

4126 3100 1026

2195 1583 612

1370 1020 351

953 778 176

2176 1863 313

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.4 4.6 6 10.3

17.3 6 6.3 11

18.4 6.2 6.7 11.7

19.5 6 7 12.5

20.8 6.5 7.4 13.4

22.1 6.3 7.8 14.3

23.5 6.3 8.1 15.3

25 6.5 8.6 16.4

26.7 6.9 9 17.7

28.6 7 9.5 19.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 2.7

13.6 4.1

14.2 4.2

14.8 4.2

15.5 4.6

16.2 4.3

16.8 4.2

17.6 4.4

18.4 4.8

19.4 5.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.1 26.5

34.9 27.4

36.8 28.4

38.7 29.3

40.7 30.4

42.7 31.2

44.7 32.1

46.9 33

49.4 34.1

52 35.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.1 1.9

37.9 2.2

39 2.8

40.1 3

41.4 3.1

42.7 3.2

44.1 3.2

45.5 3.2

47 3.2

48.5 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

161.5 1.5

165.6 2.5

170.1 2.7

173.8 2.2

177.4 2.1

180.7 1.9

183.7 1.7

187.1 1.9

190.4 1.8

193.8 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 2.6

8.3 4.8

8.6 4

8.7 1.5

8.8 0.4

8.8 0

8.8 -0.1

8.8 0.1

8.8 0

8.8 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

153.6 1.4

157.3 2.4

161.5 2.7

165 2.2

168.6 2.2

171.9 2

174.9 1.8

178.3 1.9

181.6 1.9

185.1 1.9

9.5 0

10.3 8.4

11.1 7.9

11.8 6.4

12.3 4.7

12.8 3.5

13.2 3.2

13.7 3.7

14 2.6

14.3 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.6 0.2

31.2 1.9

32.4 3.7

33.3 2.7

33.9 1.9

34.2 0.9

34.3 0.5

34.7 1

35.2 1.4

35.7 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 22.8 2.3

5.6 23 2.5

6 23.6 2.6

6.1 24.1 2.7

6.3 24.5 2.8

6.4 24.5 2.9

6.5 24.5 3

6.7 24.6 3.1

6.9 24.9 3.1

7.1 25.2 3.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 4.4

2.5 0.5

2.5 2.4

2.6 2.2

2.6 2

2.7 2.7

2.8 2.4

2.8 2.3

2.9 2.2

3 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.8

7.5 2.3

7.6 1.4

7.6 0.3

7.7 0.9

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.6

7.9 0.7

8 1.1

8.1 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 8.6

16.6 7.5

17.3 4.2

18 3.9

19.1 5.9

20.2 5.8

21.4 5.9

22.8 6.5

24 5.6

25.2 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

34.2 2.3

34.6 1

35 1.2

35.7 2.1

36.6 2.6

37.6 2.5

38.4 2.2

39.1 2

39.8 1.8

40.5 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -0.1

22.8 1.4

23 1.1

23.1 0.2

23 -0.2

23 0.1

23 0

23 -0.1

23 0.2

23.1 0.4

8 0.6

8 -0.2

8.1 0.6

8.2 1.2

8.2 0.5

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.6

8.3 0.3

8.4 0.2

8.4 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -5.6

1.4 0.5

1.4 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 1.2

1.5 1.4

1.5 1.4

1.5 1.4

1.6 1.4

1.7 8.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 -0.1

22.4 1.3

23 2.8

23.3 1.4

23.6 1.3

23.9 1.2

24.2 1.2

24.5 1.2

24.8 1.2

25.1 1.3

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13043

13632.2

14137.6

14591.5

15169.1

15722.2

16286.3

16929.3

17606.8

18310.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

494.9 0

497 0.4

500.4 0.7

504.9 0.9

510.4 1.1

517.5 1.4

524.6 1.4

532.2 1.5

541 1.6

549.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

262.7 0.8

264.7 0.8

267.6 1.1

270.6 1.1

274.2 1.3

278 1.4

281.9 1.4

285.8 1.4

289.8 1.4

293.8 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.8

9.8

8.9

8.4

8

7.6

7.1

6.5

6

5.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3455 3088 367

4282 3764 518

4474 3879 595

4562 3904 657

4808 3961 847

4957 4010 946

4996 3988 1007

5056 3985 1071

5195 4014 1181

5324 4036 1288

Continued 44

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

30.5 6.8 9.9 20.6

32.5 6.6 10.4 22.1

34.6 6.4 10.9 23.7

36.7 6.1 11.4 25.3

38.9 5.9 12 26.9

41.2 5.9 12.5 28.6

43.5 5.8 13.1 30.4

46 5.7 13.8 32.2

48.6 5.5 14.4 34.1

51.2 5.5 15.1 36.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 4.9

21.3 4.7

22.2 4.4

23.1 4.1

24.1 4

25 3.9

26 3.8

26.9 3.7

27.9 3.5

28.8 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

54.6 36.3

57.3 37.4

59.9 38.5

62.5 39.4

65.2 40.3

67.9 41.3

70.7 42.1

73.5 43

76.4 43.8

79.3 44.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.2 3.4

51.8 3.2

53.5 3.2

55.1 3.1

56.8 3.1

58.6 3.1

60.4 3.1

62.3 3.1

64.2 3

66.1 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.8 1.5

199.9 1.6

203 1.6

206.2 1.6

209.6 1.7

213.1 1.6

216.6 1.6

220.3 1.7

224 1.7

227.7 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 -0.8

8.6 -1.4

8.5 -1.3

8.4 -1.1

8.3 -0.9

8.2 -0.6

8.2 -0.6

8.1 -0.7

8.1 -0.6

8.1 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

188.1 1.6

191.3 1.7

194.6 1.7

197.9 1.7

201.4 1.8

204.9 1.7

208.4 1.7

212.1 1.8

215.9 1.8

219.6 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 2.2

15 2.1

15.3 2

15.6 2.1

16 2.6

16.4 2.8

16.8 2.3

17.1 2

17.5 1.9

17.8 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 1.4

36.7 1.4

37.2 1.5

37.8 1.4

38.3 1.4

38.8 1.3

39.3 1.3

39.8 1.3

40.3 1.3

40.8 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

7.3 25.5 3.3

7.5 25.8 3.4

7.7 26.1 3.4

7.9 26.3 3.5

8.1 26.6 3.6

8.2 26.8 3.7

8.4 27 3.8

8.5 27.3 3.8

8.7 27.6 3.9

8.8 27.9 3.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3 1.9

3.1 2.1

3.1 2.3

3.2 2.4

3.3 2.5

3.4 2.7

3.5 2.9

3.6 3.1

3.7 3.2

3.8 3.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 1.3

8.3 1.2

8.4 0.9

8.4 0.9

8.6 1.2

8.6 1.1

8.7 1

8.8 1

8.9 1.2

9.1 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.3 4.2

27.4 4

28.4 3.9

29.5 4

30.8 4.3

32.1 4.1

33.4 4.1

34.8 4.3

36.3 4.1

37.6 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41.1 1.4

41.7 1.4

42.3 1.4

42.9 1.4

43.4 1.3

43.9 1.2

44.5 1.3

45.1 1.4

45.8 1.5

46.5 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 0.5

23.4 0.6

23.5 0.5

23.6 0.6

23.8 0.6

23.9 0.5

24 0.6

24.2 0.6

24.4 0.8

24.5 0.7

8.5 1

8.6 1.7

8.7 1.6

8.9 1.5

9 1.4

9.1 1.5

9.3 1.7

9.4 1.7

9.6 1.7

9.8 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -4.6

1.6 1.5

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.3

1.9 4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 1.3

25.7 1.2

26 1.2

26.3 1.1

26.6 1.1

26.9 1

27.2 1.1

27.4 1

27.7 1

28 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

19008.4

19708.3

20377.4

21056.5

21795.5

22538.6

23280.2

24037.9

24811.7

25601.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

558.9 1.6

568.1 1.6

577.5 1.6

586.9 1.6

596.5 1.6

606.2 1.6

616.1 1.6

626 1.6

636 1.6

645.9 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

297.8 1.3

301.7 1.3

305.7 1.3

309.9 1.4

314.4 1.4

319.4 1.6

324.6 1.6

330 1.6

335.3 1.6

340.8 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5343 3998 1345

5316 3953 1363

5251 3925 1327

5221 3911 1310

5255 3957 1298

5262 3966 1296

5209 3919 1290

5123 3842 1281

5074 3800 1274

5091 3823 1268

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

54 5.3 15.8 38.2

56.8 5.3 16.5 40.3

59.8 5.2 17.2 42.6

62.9 5.3 17.9 45

66.3 5.3 18.7 47.6

69.8 5.4 19.5 50.4

73.7 5.5 20.4 53.3

77.8 5.5 21.3 56.5

82.1 5.5 22.3 59.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 3.3

30.8 3.3

31.8 3.2

32.8 3.3

33.9 3.3

35 3.4

36.3 3.5

37.6 3.5

38.9 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

82.3 45.4

85.3 46.2

88.5 47

91.8 47.8

95.3 48.7

99 49.7

103 50.7

107.1 51.8

111.5 52.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.1 3

70.2 3.1

72.2 2.9

74.3 2.9

76.4 2.9

78.7 2.9

81 2.9

83.4 2.9

85.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

230.7 1.4

233.7 1.3

236.8 1.3

240 1.3

243.2 1.3

246.6 1.4

250.6 1.6

254.8 1.7

259.4 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8 -0.4

8 -0.6

7.9 -0.6

7.9 -0.4

7.9 -0.3

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.1

7.9 0.2

7.9 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

222.7 1.4

225.8 1.4

228.9 1.4

232.1 1.4

235.4 1.4

238.7 1.4

242.8 1.7

247 1.7

251.5 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 1.8

18.4 1.5

18.7 1.3

18.9 1.2

19.1 1.2

19.4 1.3

19.7 1.6

20 1.5

20.3 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

41.2 1

41.6 1

42 0.9

42.3 0.8

42.6 0.7

42.9 0.7

43.3 0.9

43.6 0.8

43.9 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.8 28.2 4

8.9 28.5 4

9 28.8 4

9 29 4

9.1 29.3 4

9.1 29.6 4

9.1 30 4

9.2 30.3 4

9.2 30.6 4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 3

4.1 2.9

4.2 2.8

4.3 2.9

4.4 2.8

4.5 2.8

4.7 3.1

4.8 3.3

5 3.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 1.2

9.3 1

9.3 1

9.5 1.2

9.6 1.2

9.7 1.2

9.8 1.3

9.9 1.2

10.1 1.2

38.6 2.7

39.6 2.7

40.8 3

42.2 3.3

43.6 3.4

45.2 3.7

47.1 4.1

49.2 4.5

51.7 5.2

47 1.2

47.6 1.2

48.1 1.1

48.7 1.1

49.1 1

49.6 0.9

50.1 1

50.6 0.9

51 0.9

24.7 0.7

24.8 0.5

25 0.6

25.1 0.5

25.2 0.6

25.3 0.4

25.5 0.8

25.7 0.8

25.9 0.6

9.9 1.6

10.1 1.6

10.2 1.4

10.4 1.4

10.5 1.4

10.7 1.4

10.8 1.6

11 1.6

11.2 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -1.2

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.3

2 1.3

2 1.3

2 1.3

2 1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 0.9

28.4 0.9

28.7 0.9

29 0.9

29.2 0.9

29.5 0.9

29.8 1

30.1 1

30.4 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

26353.1

27098.3

27886.9

28718.2

29574

30463.1

31381.9

32344.1

33362.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

655.9 1.5

665.9 1.5

675.9 1.5

685.8 1.5

695.8 1.5

705.7 1.4

715.8 1.4

726 1.4

736.2 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

346.2 1.6

351.7 1.6

357.2 1.6

362.7 1.6

368.3 1.5

373.9 1.5

379.6 1.5

385.3 1.5

391.1 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

46

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5048 3810 1238

4961 3740 1221

4930 3728 1202

4945 3753 1193

4949 3775 1174

4943 3791 1152

4933 3784 1149

4901 3769 1132

4881 3764 1116


G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be one of the slowest in the state, averaging 2.5 percent, while per capita income level will be at an average of 27.4 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, while the average annual wage level is at 39.8. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.7 percent annually. Gross metro product will be one of the lowest in the state, at a level of 9,350.1 (Mill). This metro will see a decline in employment growth at a rate of -0.3 percent annually. In terms of unemployment, the metro will suffer the least in the state. It will maintain the lowest rate of unemployment, at 7.0 percent annually. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Education and Health Services sector, with an average growth rate of 2.0 percent annually. This is followed in second by the Leisure sector, with an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent, and the Financial sector with 0.3 percent growth. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -3.8 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 258,555 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 241,364 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,191 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 140,426 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 8,058 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees • Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Cash infusion for job training • FloridaWorks, the regional work force agency for Alachua and Bradford counties, received $1.5 million in stimulus funds from the state as part of the $143 billion the U.S. Department of Labor allocated for workforce services. • Local funding will be split between a paid summer internship program for at-risk youth and job training services for unemployed and employed adults. Training will focus on fields such as alternative energy, health care, and information technology. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 4, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


G ai n e s v i l l e

District reduces or eliminates summer programs

GRU braces for $29M shortfall

• Summer school will be eliminated for middle and high schools in Alachua County. A fee increase for an elementary school summer care program significantly decreased enrollment from 1,200 last year to 300 children signed up so far.

• City-owned Gainesville Regional Utilities has seen a sharp reduction in the use of electricity, water, and natural gas that was not forecasted into the budget for this fiscal year and the next.

• High school students are able to make up classes through the district’s credit retrieval online program (CROP). Middle school students can make up one class through Florida Virtual School. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 18, 2009 Private funding, use floated for Cone Park • City commissioners are considering a proposal for a $1.7 million track and field addition to Cone Park along East University Avenue in Gainesville. • Not-for-profit Gainesville Sports Commission could cover the $360,000 estimated operating cost for three years while the city finds space in the budget. • Residents who view Cone Park as a community park are concerned the public-private partnership will decrease their access to the park. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 21, 2009 UF trustees vote to cut school’s budget by $42.2M • Academic programs in documentary film, educational psychology, instructional scuba, and rehabilitation counseling will be shut down under the new budget. • The budget includes nine faculty and 49 staff layoffs, and the elimination of 150 positions currently vacant or expected to be open due to retirements. • Cuts are less than feared several months ago because UF is using federal stimulus money for the next two years to lessen the impact of the budget cuts. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 27, 2009

48

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• The city of Gainesville will receive about $950,000 less than projected from revenue transfer from GRU. • Taking into account several factors, the city estimates a $4.2 million deficit between the budgeted amount for 2010 and what actually will be taken in. Source: The Gainesville Sun, June 4, 2009


G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0%

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Gainesville Payroll Employment 180.0

(Thousands)

170.0 160.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

110.0

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Gainesville Payroll Employment

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.6 -0.8 5 3.5

8.5 -1.5 5 3.5

8.5 -1.2 5.1 3.5

8.6 0.1 5.1 3.5

8.7 1.2 5.1 3.5

8.7 2.8 5.2 3.6

8.8 3.3 5.2 3.6

8.9 3.6 5.2 3.7

9 3.6 5.3 3.7

9.1 3.9 5.3 3.8

9.2 4.2 5.3 3.8

9.3 4.5 5.4 3.9

9.4 4.9 5.5 4

9.5 5.2 5.5 4

9.7 5.4 5.6 4.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 -0.5

7 0

7 -1.1

7 -0.4

7.1 0.2

7.1 1.4

7.1 1.6

7.2 1.8

7.2 1.8

7.2 2

7.3 2.3

7.4 2.6

7.4 3.1

7.5 3.4

7.6 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.9 27.1

32.6 26.9

32.6 26.9

32.8 26.9

33 27

33.3 27.1

33.5 27.1

33.7 27.2

34 27.3

34.3 27.4

34.6 27.5

35 27.7

35.4 27.9

35.8 28.1

36.2 28.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.5 3.3

38.7 2.8

38.9 2.5

39.1 2.6

39.3 2.1

39.5 2.1

39.7 2

39.9 2

40.1 2

40.3 2

40.5 2

40.7 2

41 2.2

41.2 2.4

41.5 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.4 -3.3

129.8 -3.4

129.6 -3.3

129.7 -2.1

130.2 -0.2

130.1 0.3

130.1 0.4

130.4 0.5

130.7 0.4

131.1 0.8

131.5 1.1

132 1.2

132.8 1.5

133.5 1.8

134.2 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -8.8

4.4 -12.2

4.3 -14.1

4.3 -11.4

4.2 -8

4.3 -3.9

4.3 -0.6

4.3 0.9

4.3 2.5

4.4 3.5

4.5 4.3

4.5 4.9

4.6 5.2

4.6 5

4.7 4.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125.8 -3.1

125.4 -3

125.3 -2.8

125.4 -1.8

125.9 0.1

125.9 0.4

125.8 0.4

126.1 0.5

126.4 0.4

126.7 0.7

127.1 1

127.4 1.1

128.2 1.4

128.8 1.7

129.5 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.1 -11.3

5 -11.1

4.8 -12.7

4.7 -12

4.6 -10.3

4.5 -9.9

4.5 -7.8

4.4 -5.9

4.5 -2.4

4.5 1.1

4.6 3.5

4.7 6

4.8 7.3

4.9 7.8

5 7.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 -4.5

18.8 -5.3

18.8 -3.9

18.8 -1.6

18.8 -0.1

18.8 0.4

18.8 0.3

18.8 0

18.7 -0.4

18.7 -0.5

18.8 0

18.9 0.5

19 1.4

19.1 2.1

19.2 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.5 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.5 2.5

2.8 13.4 2.5

2.8 13.3 2.5

2.9 13.4 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

3 13.5 2.7

3 13.5 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -7.5

1.8 -7.9

1.7 -3.1

1.7 -6

1.7 -6.1

1.7 -4.6

1.7 -1.4

1.7 2

1.7 4.7

1.7 4.3

1.7 2.3

1.7 0.7

1.7 0.1

1.7 0.3

1.8 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -2.2

6.1 -0.8

6.1 -0.5

6.2 0.2

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.6

6.1 0

6.2 -0.2

6.2 0.3

6.2 0.9

6.2 1.5

6.3 1.8

6.3 2.1

6.4 2.3

6.4 2.2

9.2 -17.2

9.1 -18.9

9.1 -17.5

9.1 -13.3

9.2 -0.4

9.3 1.8

9.5 4.7

9.8 7.4

10 8.9

10.2 9.4

10.3 8.5

10.6 7.9

10.8 7.6

10.9 7.3

11.1 6.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 1.9

22.9 2.3

23 2.1

23.3 3

23.6 3.8

23.8 3.9

23.9 3.7

23.9 2.5

24.1 2

24.2 1.6

24.2 1.3

24.2 1

24.2 0.7

24.3 0.5

24.3 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 3.8

15.3 2

15.3 0.8

15.3 -1

15.3 -0.5

15.3 -0.2

15.2 -0.6

15.2 -0.5

15.2 -0.4

15.3 -0.2

15.3 0.5

15.3 0.9

15.4 1

15.5 1.2

15.5 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -2.6

4.7 0.2

4.7 -0.2

4.7 0

4.7 0.6

4.8 1.8

4.8 1

4.8 0.9

4.8 0.8

4.8 0.4

4.8 0.4

4.8 -0.2

4.7 -0.7

4.7 -0.8

4.7 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4 -0.6

3.9 -2.9

3.9 -1.2

3.9 -1.7

4.2 5.9

4 2.6

3.9 -0.1

3.9 0.4

3.9 -7.6

3.9 -3.3

3.9 -1

3.9 -0.7

3.9 -0.3

3.9 0

3.9 0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.9 -3

37.8 -1.6

37.7 -1.8

37.7 -0.8

37.6 -0.6

37.5 -0.7

37.4 -1

37.3 -0.9

37.2 -1

37.2 -0.9

37.1 -0.7

37.1 -0.6

37.3 0.1

37.4 0.6

37.6 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9048.4

9038.4

9049.2

9060.9

9124.8

9178.7

9242.9

9289.8

9367

9448.8

9530.6

9614.1

9719

9810.1

9894.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

260.5 0.7

260.8 0.7

261.2 0.6

261.6 0.6

262.1 0.6

262.6 0.7

263.1 0.7

263.6 0.8

264 0.7

264.5 0.7

265 0.7

265.5 0.7

266 0.8

266.5 0.8

267.1 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

134.9 -0.8

134.2 -2.2

133.9 -3.5

133.8 -1.4

133.9 -0.7

134.2 0

134.6 0.6

135 0.9

135.2 0.9

135.4 0.9

135.7 0.8

136 0.8

136.4 0.9

136.8 1

137.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7

7.3

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.4

6.1

6

725 225 500

729 245 484

871 317 553

978 444 535

997 539 458

1054 634 420

1089 713 376

1171 805 366

1218 892 327

1240 941 299

1252 971 281

1264 994 270

1303 1041 262

1363 1074 289

1392 1080 313

*Quarterly at an annual rate

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2

6 2.9 3.7 2.3

6.8 13.4 4.2 2.6

7.4 8 4.5 2.9

7.9 7.8 4.8 3.2

8.3 5.2 5 3.4

8.6 3.1 5.1 3.5

8.5 -0.7 5.1 3.5

8.7 1.8 5.1 3.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

5.6 0.4

5.7 0.9

6.3 10.5

6.6 4.9

6.9 4.9

7.1 2.5

7.1 -0.2

7 -0.4

7.1 0.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.4 23.6

24.9 23.5

27.9 25.7

29.6 26.5

31.3 27.3

32.5 27.6

33.2 27.3

32.8 27

33.1 27

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 3.4

28.8 1.5

32.2 11.9

33.8 5

35.5 5.1

36.6 3.1

37.5 2.3

38.5 2.9

39.4 2.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

126 -0.1

127.4 1.1

129.6 1.8

131.2 1.2

133.3 1.6

135.2 1.4

134.6 -0.5

130.6 -2.9

130 -0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5 -0.8

4.7 -5.3

4.7 -1.8

4.6 -0.2

5.2 12.2

5.3 2.2

5.1 -4.8

4.5 -10.5

4.3 -6.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

121 -0.1

122.6 1.3

125 1.9

126.5 1.3

128.1 1.2

129.9 1.4

129.5 -0.3

126 -2.7

125.8 -0.2

5.1 5.6

5.2 1.5

5.8 11.7

6.2 6.3

6.5 5.2

6.5 0.9

5.7 -12.5

5.1 -11.4

4.6 -10

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 -1.2

18.1 1.1

18.2 0.4

18.9 3.5

19.5 3.3

20.3 4

19.7 -2.7

18.9 -4.2

18.8 -0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.3 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.2 2.5

2.6 13.2 2.4

2.7 13.8 2.4

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.9 14.2 2.7

2.8 13.6 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -6.5

2 -1.3

2.1 6.1

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 2.6

1.9 -6.6

1.8 -5.9

1.7 -4.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -0.1

6.2 -6.4

6.2 -0.7

6.2 1

6.5 4

6.4 -0.5

6.3 -2.8

6.1 -1.8

6.2 0.4

9.9 -10.4

10.4 4.3

11.3 8.8

11.9 5.6

12.1 1.3

11.6 -4.1

11.2 -3.4

9.5 -15

9.3 -2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 2.4

20.8 2.3

21.5 3

21.9 2.1

21.9 0.1

21.8 -0.5

22.4 2.8

22.8 1.9

23.7 3.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 -1.3

12 -0.5

12.9 7.5

13.7 5.9

13.4 -2.1

14 4.1

14.9 6.5

15.4 3.2

15.3 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 10.4

4.5 5.4

4.7 3.3

4.5 -3.1

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.8

4.8 -0.9

4.7 -1.7

4.7 0.8

3.2 2.1

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4 4.1

4 -1.2

4 1.7

39.4 1

40 1.6

38.9 -2.8

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.9

38.7 0.1

37.8 -2.1

37.6 -0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

7928

8289.6

8629.5

8993.5

9248.6

9369.1

9440.5

9080.2

9151.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

239 1.2

241.4 1

244.3 1.2

248.3 1.7

253.2 2

256.6 1.3

258.8 0.9

260.6 0.7

262.4 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

123.4 0.1

124.5 0.9

125.4 0.8

128 2.1

130.9 2.3

134.3 2.6

136.6 1.7

134.7 -1.4

134.2 -0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4

3.7

3.5

2.9

2.7

3

4.3

7.1

7.5

1942 1130 812

1706 1261 446

1838 1378 461

2224 1454 770

1885 1156 729

1365 762 603

1035 489 546

709 268 441

1030 583 447

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9 3.8 5.3 3.7

9.5 5 5.5 4

10 5.5 5.8 4.2

10.5 5.2 6 4.5

11.1 5.6 6.3 4.8

11.7 5.4 6.6 5.1

12.3 5.3 6.9 5.4

13 5.6 7.2 5.8

13.8 5.8 7.6 6.2

14.6 6 7.9 6.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 2

7.5 3.1

7.7 3.6

8 3.4

8.3 3.7

8.6 3.4

8.9 3.3

9.2 3.5

9.5 3.7

9.9 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

34.2 27.4

35.6 28

37.3 28.8

38.9 29.5

40.7 30.3

42.4 31.1

44.3 31.8

46.3 32.6

48.5 33.5

51 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.2 2

41.1 2.3

42.3 2.9

43.6 3.1

45 3.2

46.5 3.3

48 3.3

49.7 3.4

51.3 3.3

53.1 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.9 0.7

133.1 1.6

135.9 2.1

138 1.5

139.9 1.4

141.7 1.2

143.2 1.1

145 1.2

146.7 1.2

148.3 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 2.8

4.6 5

4.8 4.2

4.9 1.7

4.9 0.6

4.9 0.2

4.9 0.1

4.9 0.2

4.9 0.2

4.9 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

126.6 0.6

128.5 1.5

131.1 2.1

133.1 1.5

135 1.5

136.8 1.3

138.3 1.1

140 1.3

141.8 1.2

143.4 1.1

4.5 -1

4.8 7.2

5.2 6.7

5.4 5.3

5.6 3.9

5.8 3.2

6 3

6.2 3.4

6.3 2.3

6.5 1.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 -0.2

19.1 1.5

19.7 3.2

20.1 2.2

20.4 1.3

20.5 0.4

20.5 0

20.6 0.5

20.7 0.8

20.9 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.8 13.4 2.5

3 13.4 2.7

3.1 13.7 2.8

3.2 13.9 2.9

3.2 14.1 2.9

3.3 14 3

3.3 13.9 3.1

3.4 13.9 3.2

3.4 14 3.2

3.5 14.1 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 3.3

1.7 0.4

1.8 1.4

1.8 1.7

1.8 1.6

1.9 2

1.9 1.9

1.9 1.8

2 1.6

2 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 0.6

6.3 2.1

6.4 1.2

6.4 0.1

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.4

6.5 0.4

6.6 0.7

6.7 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 8.5

10.8 7.4

11.3 4.1

11.7 3.8

12.4 5.8

13.1 5.6

13.8 5.6

14.6 6.3

15.4 5.3

16.2 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 1.8

24.3 0.7

24.5 1

24.9 1.7

25.4 2.1

25.9 1.9

26.4 1.6

26.7 1.4

27 1.2

27.4 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 -0.1

15.4 1.1

15.6 0.9

15.5 -0.2

15.4 -0.6

15.4 -0.2

15.4 -0.3

15.3 -0.4

15.3 0

15.3 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 0.6

4.8 -0.6

4.8 0.3

4.8 0.9

4.8 0

4.8 0.3

4.8 0.1

4.8 -0.3

4.8 -0.4

4.8 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -3

3.9 -0.2

3.9 0.2

3.9 0.2

3.9 0.5

3.9 0.6

4 0.6

4 0.6

4 0.7

4 -1.9

37.2 -0.9

37.4 0.4

38.1 2

38.5 0.9

38.7 0.7

38.9 0.5

39.1 0.5

39.3 0.5

39.5 0.6

39.8 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9409.1

9759.3

10053.9

10314.2

10651

10964.7

11278.5

11638.7

12014.2

12387.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

264.3 0.7

266.3 0.8

268.5 0.8

270.8 0.9

273.4 0.9

276 1

278.6 1

281.3 0.9

283.9 0.9

286.6 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

135.3 0.9

136.6 0.9

138.2 1.2

139.4 0.9

140.7 0.9

142.1 1

143.5 1

145 1

146.4 1

147.7 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.9

6.3

5.6

5.3

5.1

4.8

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.6

1220 902 318

1331 1047 283

1418 1088 330

1446 1083 363

1536 1087 449

1586 1087 500

1602 1072 530

1630 1066 564

1665 1060 605

1698 1050 648

Continued 52

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.5 6 8.3 7.2

16.4 5.7 8.6 7.7

17.3 5.6 9 8.3

18.2 5.4 9.4 8.8

19.2 5.2 9.8 9.4

20.1 5.2 10.2 10

21.2 5.1 10.6 10.5

22.2 5 11.1 11.1

23.3 4.9 11.6 11.8

24.5 4.9 12.1 12.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 4.1

10.7 3.8

11.1 3.7

11.5 3.4

11.9 3.3

12.2 3.2

12.6 3.2

13 3

13.4 2.9

13.8 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

53.5 35.6

56 36.6

58.6 37.6

61.1 38.5

63.7 39.4

66.3 40.3

69 41.2

71.8 42

74.6 42.8

77.5 43.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

55 3.5

56.8 3.4

58.7 3.3

60.6 3.2

62.5 3.2

64.6 3.2

66.7 3.3

68.9 3.3

71.1 3.2

73.3 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

149.9 1.1

151.4 1

152.8 0.9

154.2 1

155.8 1

157.4 1

158.9 1

160.6 1

162.2 1

163.9 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.9 -0.6

4.8 -1.3

4.8 -1.1

4.7 -1

4.7 -0.7

4.7 -0.5

4.6 -0.5

4.6 -0.6

4.6 -0.5

4.6 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

145 1.1

146.5 1

148 1

149.5 1

151.1 1.1

152.7 1

154.3 1

155.9 1.1

157.6 1.1

159.3 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 1.9

6.7 1.8

6.8 1.8

7 1.9

7.1 2.4

7.3 2.6

7.5 2.2

7.6 1.8

7.7 1.7

7.9 2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 0.8

21.2 0.8

21.4 0.9

21.6 0.8

21.8 0.8

22 0.8

22.1 0.7

22.3 0.7

22.4 0.7

22.5 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.6 14.2 3.3

3.7 14.2 3.4

3.7 14.3 3.4

3.8 14.3 3.5

3.8 14.4 3.6

3.9 14.4 3.7

3.9 14.5 3.7

4 14.5 3.8

4 14.6 3.8

4 14.7 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.6

2.1 1.7

2.1 1.8

2.1 1.9

2.2 1.9

2.2 2

2.3 2.1

2.3 2.3

2.4 2.4

2.4 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 0.9

6.8 0.8

6.8 0.5

6.9 0.5

6.9 0.8

6.9 0.6

7 0.5

7 0.5

7.1 0.7

7.1 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 3.9

17.4 3.6

18 3.5

18.6 3.6

19.4 3.9

20.1 3.7

20.8 3.7

21.6 3.9

22.4 3.7

23.1 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 0.8

27.8 0.8

28 0.7

28.2 0.7

28.4 0.6

28.5 0.5

28.7 0.6

28.9 0.7

29.1 0.8

29.4 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 0.3

15.4 0.4

15.5 0.3

15.5 0.4

15.6 0.4

15.6 0.3

15.7 0.3

15.7 0.4

15.8 0.6

15.9 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 0.1

4.8 1

4.9 1

4.9 0.8

4.9 0.8

5 0.9

5 1.1

5.1 1.1

5.1 1.1

5.2 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 3.3

4.1 0.4

4.1 0.5

4.1 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.3 0.6

4.4 3.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

40 0.6

40.2 0.4

40.4 0.4

40.5 0.4

40.7 0.4

40.8 0.3

41 0.4

41.1 0.3

41.2 0.3

41.3 0.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12781.1

13151.5

13497.8

13846.1

14227.8

14602.9

14972.1

15346.8

15725.7

16108.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

289.4 1

292.3 1

295.1 1

298 1

300.9 1

303.8 1

306.8 1

309.8 1

312.8 1

315.7 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

148.9 0.8

150 0.8

151.2 0.8

152.4 0.8

153.7 0.9

155.2 1

156.9 1.1

158.5 1.1

160.2 1

161.8 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

1708 1030 678

1700 1013 686

1689 1003 685

1676 996 679

1686 1006 680

1687 1003 683

1667 983 684

1636 954 683

1619 937 682

1623 940 683

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.6 4.6 12.5 13.1

26.8 4.7 13 13.8

28 4.6 13.5 14.5

29.3 4.6 14 15.3

30.7 4.7 14.6 16.1

32.2 4.8 15.1 17

33.7 4.9 15.8 18

35.4 4.9 16.4 19

37.1 4.9 17.1 20

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.6

14.5 2.6

14.9 2.6

15.3 2.7

15.7 2.7

16.1 2.8

16.6 2.9

17.1 3

17.6 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

80.3 44.3

83.3 45.1

86.3 45.8

89.5 46.6

92.8 47.5

96.3 48.3

100.1 49.3

104.1 50.3

108.2 51.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

75.6 3.1

78.1 3.2

80.5 3.1

82.9 3.1

85.5 3.1

88.1 3.1

90.9 3.1

93.7 3.1

96.6 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

165 0.7

166.2 0.7

167.4 0.7

168.6 0.7

169.8 0.7

171.2 0.8

172.8 1

174.6 1

176.6 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -0.3

4.5 -0.5

4.5 -0.5

4.5 -0.4

4.5 -0.3

4.5 -0.2

4.5 -0.1

4.5 0.2

4.5 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.5 0.7

161.6 0.7

162.8 0.7

164.1 0.8

165.4 0.8

166.7 0.8

168.4 1

170.1 1.1

172.1 1.2

8 1.7

8.1 1.3

8.2 1.2

8.3 1.1

8.4 1

8.5 1.2

8.6 1.4

8.7 1.3

8.8 1.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 0.4

22.7 0.4

22.8 0.2

22.8 0.1

22.8 0.1

22.8 0

22.9 0.3

22.9 0.2

22.9 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4 14.7 3.9

4 14.8 3.9

4 14.9 3.9

4 14.9 3.9

4 15 3.9

4 15 3.8

4 15.1 3.8

4 15.2 3.8

4 15.2 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 2.2

2.5 2.1

2.6 2.1

2.6 2.1

2.7 2

2.7 2

2.8 2.2

2.9 2.3

2.9 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 0.6

7.2 0.5

7.2 0.5

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.7

7.4 0.6

7.5 0.8

7.5 0.7

7.6 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 2.3

24.2 2.3

24.8 2.5

25.5 2.9

26.3 2.9

27.1 3.2

28.1 3.7

29.3 4.1

30.6 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 0.6

29.7 0.6

29.9 0.5

30 0.5

30.1 0.4

30.2 0.3

30.3 0.4

30.4 0.3

30.5 0.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16 0.5

16 0.3

16.1 0.4

16.1 0.2

16.2 0.4

16.2 0.2

16.3 0.5

16.4 0.5

16.4 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.2 0.9

5.3 0.9

5.3 0.7

5.4 0.8

5.4 0.7

5.5 0.7

5.5 0.9

5.5 0.9

5.6 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -1.9

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

41.4 0.2

41.5 0.2

41.6 0.2

41.6 0.2

41.7 0.2

41.8 0.2

41.9 0.2

42 0.2

42.1 0.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16462.5

16810.5

17180.2

17570.1

17970.4

18384.7

18810.3

19253.8

19721.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

318.7 0.9

321.7 0.9

324.7 0.9

327.7 0.9

330.8 0.9

333.8 0.9

336.9 0.9

340 0.9

343.1 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

163.5 1

165.1 1

166.7 1

168.4 1

170 1

171.6 0.9

173.2 0.9

174.7 0.9

176.4 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

1601 931 670

1567 903 663

1548 893 655

1547 896 651

1540 898 642

1530 900 630

1523 895 628

1507 889 618

1495 886 609


J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

• CSX – 4,400 employees • Bank of America – 4,000 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,313,228 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 26,164 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 184,727 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 850,962 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 69,835 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 181,540 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 681,078 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 9.2% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 62,772 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see moderate, but positive, growth in all of the economic indicators. Personal income will see an average growth of 3.1 percent, while the per capita income level will be at 32.9; these income indicators are some of the highest in the state. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 47.5. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 49,246.18 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to grow 0.1 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. Unemployment will be just under the double-digit mark at an average of 9.8 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, averaging 3.0 percent annually. Following that sector is Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent, and then the Financial sector with 0.4 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -5.8 percent. This is the steepest decline of any sector, in any metro area.

Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 8,100 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • Citibank – 4,600 employees

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Blue Cross to cut 5% of workforce • In an effort to lower costs, Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida, Inc. announced that it is cutting 300 employees from its statewide workforce. Additional reductions of 200 to 250 will occur through attrition. • The announcement did not specify how many of those cuts would come from the company’s corporate offices in Gainesville. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 1, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


J ack s o n v i l l e

FDIC to bring 500 temporary jobs to Jacksonville

Crist signs bill for outer beltway

• The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chose Jacksonville as the site of a temporary satellite office that will help manage receiverships and liquidate assets of failed banks in Eastern states.

• The $2 billion First Coast Outer Beltway project will be funded by a public-private partnership and is expected to break ground in a year.

• FDIC uses these offices to keep temporary asset resolution staff closer to the sites of failed banks. Up to 500 nonpermanent staff and contractors will be hired based on workload and the number of bank closures in the Eastern region. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 8, 2009 Visit Jax: Tourism had $1.6B impact • According to a study commissioned by Visit Jacksonville, almost three million overnight visitors to Duval County directly spent more than $987 million in 2008. Indirect spending accounted for the rest of the $1.6B impact. • The spending supported 42,900 jobs in the city and more than $73 million in sales and local option taxes according to Tampa-based Research Data Services Inc., which conducted the study. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 11, 2009 Winn-Dixie earnings higher than expected • During its third quarter, the Jacksonville-based company reported higher-than-expected earnings and an increase in net income to $16.6 million, from $15 million during the same period in 2008. • Based on results, the company raised its annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) expectation to a range from $145 to $152 million for the fiscal year. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 12, 2009

56

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• The beltway consists of a four-lane limited access toll road spanning over 46 miles. It will start in Clay County at Interstate 295 and connect Interstate 10 in west Jacksonville to Interstate 95 in northern St. Johns County. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, June 1, 2009


J ack s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1100.0

(Thousands)

1000.0

10.0%

900.0

8.0%

800.0 700.0

6.0%

600.0

4.0% 2.0%

0.8

500.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 140000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

400.0

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

120000.0

6.0%

100000.0

4.0%

80000.0

2.0%

60000.0

0.0% -2.0%

40000.0 20000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

52.1 -1 28.2 23.9

51.7 -1.4 28.2 23.5

51.9 -0.6 28.3 23.6

52.2 0.4 28.5 23.7

52.7 1.1 28.7 24

53.2 3 28.9 24.3

53.7 3.6 29.2 24.6

54.3 4 29.5 24.8

55 4.4 29.8 25.2

55.8 4.8 30.2 25.6

56.6 5.2 30.5 26

57.5 5.8 31 26.4

58.5 6.3 31.5 26.9

59.4 6.6 32 27.4

60.4 6.8 32.5 27.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

43 -0.7

42.6 0.1

42.7 -0.6

42.9 -0.1

43 0.1

43.3 1.6

43.5 2

43.8 2.2

44.1 2.6

44.5 2.8

45 3.3

45.5 3.9

46.1 4.5

46.7 4.8

47.2 4.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

39.3 32.4

38.9 32.1

38.9 32.1

39.2 32.1

39.4 32.2

39.8 32.4

40.1 32.5

40.4 32.6

40.9 32.8

41.3 33

41.8 33.3

42.4 33.6

43 33.9

43.6 34.2

44.1 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.6 3.4

45.9 3.1

46.2 2.7

46.5 2.8

46.7 2.5

47 2.5

47.3 2.5

47.6 2.5

47.9 2.5

48.1 2.4

48.4 2.4

48.8 2.4

49.1 2.5

49.5 2.8

49.9 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

596.1 -4.7

591.7 -4.4

590.6 -3.4

590.3 -2.4

590.7 -0.9

591.9 0

593.9 0.6

596.6 1.1

600.1 1.6

604.1 2

608.6 2.5

614.1 2.9

620 3.3

625.6 3.6

630.5 3.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 -9.2

27.9 -11.6

27.2 -12.6

26.8 -12

26.6 -8.7

26.7 -4.6

26.8 -1.3

26.9 0.2

27.1 1.9

27.4 2.8

27.8 3.6

28.1 4.3

28.3 4.5

28.6 4.3

28.9 4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

567 -4.5

563.7 -4

563.4 -2.9

563.4 -1.9

564.1 -0.5

565.3 0.3

567.1 0.7

569.7 1.1

573 1.6

576.7 2

580.8 2.4

586.1 2.9

591.6 3.3

597 3.5

601.7 3.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 -17.3

35.2 -15.8

34.1 -14.4

33.2 -12.8

32.2 -11.2

31.4 -10.8

31.1 -8.6

30.9 -6.8

31.1 -3.5

31.4 0

31.8 2.2

32.4 4.7

33 6.1

33.5 6.6

33.9 6.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

130.2 -5

129.7 -4.2

129.9 -2

130 -1.3

130.2 0

130.3 0.4

130.3 0.3

130.5 0.3

130.6 0.3

131.1 0.6

132 1.3

133 2

134.2 2.8

135.5 3.4

136.8 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27.7 71.8 30.6

27.7 71.7 30.4

27.8 71.8 30.4

27.7 72.1 30.4

27.7 72.3 30.3

27.7 72.4 30.4

27.6 72.3 30.4

27.6 72.1 30.5

27.9 71.6 30.9

28.2 71.3 31.3

28.6 71.6 31.7

28.9 71.8 32.2

29.4 72.1 32.7

29.8 72.4 33.3

30.2 72.7 33.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 -7.1

9.1 -8.4

9 -7.9

8.8 -6.2

8.6 -6.7

8.6 -5

8.8 -2.4

8.9 1.2

9 4.3

9 4.1

9 2

8.9 0.1

8.9 -0.8

8.9 -0.5

9 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.3 -2.4

59.1 -2.3

59.4 -0.9

59.5 -0.5

59.4 0.3

59.3 0.4

59.4 0

59.5 -0.1

59.7 0.5

60.1 1.3

60.5 1.9

60.9 2.5

61.4 2.7

61.8 2.8

62 2.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

82.9 -7.9

81.5 -6.6

81.5 -6.3

81.5 -5.2

81.9 -1.2

83.1 1.9

85.2 4.6

87.5 7.4

89.4 9.2

91.1 9.7

93 9.1

95.5 9.2

97.8 9.3

99.9 9.6

101.4 9.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

80.2 -0.2

80.7 0.4

81.1 0.8

81.9 2.6

82.8 3.3

83.6 3.6

84.1 3.6

84.3 2.8

84.9 2.5

85.5 2.3

85.9 2.2

86.2 2.3

86.6 2.1

87 1.8

87.3 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.3 -0.8

66.1 -0.9

66.2 -0.3

66.2 -0.7

66.2 -0.1

66.3 0.3

66.2 0

66.1 0

66.2 0

66.4 0

66.6 0.6

66.9 1.2

67.2 1.5

67.5 1.8

67.9 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 -5.4

26.4 -4.8

26.6 -3.3

26.6 0.1

26.6 0.6

26.7 1.3

26.7 0.5

26.7 0.4

26.7 0.5

26.8 0.2

26.8 0.2

26.7 -0.1

26.7 -0.3

26.7 -0.3

26.7 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 1.6

17 -1.1

17 -0.8

17 -0.7

17.4 1

17.3 1.8

17 0

16.9 -0.6

16.9 -3.3

16.8 -2.6

16.8 -1

16.8 -0.4

16.9 -0.1

16.9 0.1

16.9 0.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.9 -1.6

58.8 -2

58.7 -1.5

58.7 -0.5

58.6 -0.4

58.6 -0.4

58.4 -0.6

58.5 -0.4

58.5 -0.3

58.5 -0.2

58.5 0.1

58.6 0.3

59 1

59.3 1.5

59.8 2.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

47432.9

47295.5

47374.2

47447.9

47698.1

48071

48504.1

48827.5

49312.5

49833.3

50382.1

51011.3

51687.4

52301.2

52866.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1327.6 1.1

1329.8 1

1331.8 0.8

1334 0.7

1336.2 0.6

1338.5 0.7

1340.9 0.7

1343.4 0.7

1346 0.7

1349 0.8

1352.2 0.8

1355.8 0.9

1359.7 1

1363.8 1.1

1368.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

686.2 0.6

684.3 0

683.1 -0.5

683.3 -0.7

684.5 -0.2

685.9 0.2

687.5 0.6

689.6 0.9

691.3 1

693.1 1

694.9 1.1

696.6 1

698.1 1

700.1 1

702 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.9

10.2

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.5

10.3

10

9.8

9.7

9.4

9.4

9.1

8.8

8.6

3974 3093 880

4060 3247 813

4990 3904 1086

5807 4626 1180

6332 5146 1186

7213 5951 1262

8123 6787 1337

9025 7683 1342

9987 8597 1390

10764 9275 1489

11364 9760 1605

11838 10068 1770

12472 10529 1943

13013 10847 2166

13258 10903 2355

*Quarterly at an annual rate

58

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3

40.5 8.9 23.4 17.1

44.1 8.8 25 19.1

48.6 10.2 27.3 21.3

50.9 4.7 28.3 22.6

52.3 2.8 28.5 23.8

51.9 -0.7 28.3 23.7

53 2 28.8 24.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 2.4

35.2 3.8

37.4 6.1

39.5 5.7

42.4 7.2

43.2 2

43 -0.5

42.8 -0.4

43.2 0.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.9 28.9

31 29.4

33.1 30.5

35.2 31.6

38 33.1

39.1 33.3

39.7 32.7

39.1 32.2

39.6 32.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.8 4.3

37 6.4

38.4 3.9

39.6 2.9

41.9 6

43.1 2.8

44.3 2.8

45.7 3.1

46.9 2.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

561.5 -1

564.6 0.5

582 3.1

607.4 4.4

626.1 3.1

633.8 1.2

621.3 -2

595.7 -4.1

591.7 -0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

34.4 -4.9

33.4 -3.1

33.3 -0.3

33.5 0.9

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.8 -2.3

28.7 -9.8

26.7 -6.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

527.1 -0.7

531.2 0.8

548.7 3.3

573.9 4.6

592.9 3.3

601.2 1.4

589.5 -2

567.1 -3.8

565 -0.4

34.1 3.6

36.7 7.4

40.9 11.5

45.4 11

50.1 10.3

49.2 -1.6

42.9 -12.9

35.9 -16.3

32 -10.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

124.4 -0.9

125 0.4

128.1 2.5

132.7 3.6

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136 -2.3

130.4 -4.1

130.2 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.9 68.1 30.4

26.8 68.8 29.4

26.9 71.2 30.1

27.8 73.9 31.1

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.7 75.5 31.8

27.8 72 30.6

27.7 72.3 30.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 -8.1

12.4 -6.1

11.6 -6.4

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

9.9 -2.2

9.2 -7.4

8.7 -5.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

57.7 -0.3

57.6 -0.1

58.4 1.4

59.3 1.5

59.8 0.9

60.1 0.5

60.5 0.6

59.4 -1.8

59.4 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

86.1 -8.2

84.1 -2.3

86 2.2

91.7 6.7

96.8 5.5

94.3 -2.6

88.4 -6.2

83 -6.2

82.9 -0.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

63.5 4

64.7 1.9

67.9 5

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.6

80.4 3.3

80.5 0.1

83.1 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 2.8

53.3 1.6

56.3 5.5

60.4 7.3

62.1 2.9

65.9 6.1

66.7 1.3

66.3 -0.6

66.2 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 4.6

25.7 3

26.4 2.6

26.8 1.5

27.6 3.1

28.3 2.3

27.8 -1.7

26.5 -4.5

26.7 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 0.2

18 1.5

17.8 -1.3

17.4 -2.2

16.9 -2.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.3

17.1 0.1

17.2 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

52.8 0.5

53.6 1.7

55.4 3.3

57.1 3

57 0

59.1 3.7

59.8 1.1

58.9 -1.5

58.6 -0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

40595.4

42410.4

44393

47334.9

49209.6

49274

49254.5

47498.9

47930.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1175 2.1

1198.1 2

1225.2 2.3

1251.5 2.2

1278.7 2.2

1299.4 1.6

1315.2 1.2

1328.4 1

1337.4 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

595.3 0.4

598.2 0.5

607.6 1.6

627.7 3.3

649.2 3.4

668.4 3

682.1 2

685.4 0.5

685.3 0

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

5.1

4.6

3.7

3.3

3.8

5.8

10

10.5

14252 11058 3194

15042 12825 2217

17883 13858 4024

23879 18655 5224

16715 12256 4459

10521 7477 3043

7244 5324 1920

5055 3354 1701

6869 5628 1241

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

55.4 4.6 30 25.4

58.9 6.4 31.8 27.2

62.9 6.7 33.8 29.1

66.9 6.4 35.7 31.2

71.4 6.7 37.8 33.6

75.9 6.3 39.9 36

80.6 6.2 42.1 38.5

85.9 6.5 44.6 41.3

91.7 6.8 47.2 44.5

98.1 6.9 49.9 48.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.4 2.7

46.4 4.5

48.6 4.7

50.8 4.6

53.2 4.8

55.6 4.3

57.9 4.2

60.5 4.4

63.3 4.7

66.5 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

41.1 32.9

43.3 34.1

45.6 35.2

47.8 36.3

50.2 37.4

52.5 38.4

54.9 39.4

57.6 40.5

60.5 41.8

63.6 43.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48 2.4

49.3 2.7

50.9 3.2

52.5 3.3

54.3 3.4

56.2 3.4

58.1 3.4

60.1 3.5

62.2 3.4

64.4 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

602.4 1.8

622.5 3.4

642 3.1

657.9 2.5

674.5 2.5

689.4 2.2

704 2.1

721 2.4

737.6 2.3

753.6 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.3 2.1

28.5 4.2

29.5 3.5

29.9 1.4

30 0.5

30 0

30 -0.1

30.1 0.2

30.1 0.2

30.1 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

575.1 1.8

594.1 3.3

612.5 3.1

628.1 2.5

644.5 2.6

659.4 2.3

674 2.2

691 2.5

707.5 2.4

723.5 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 -2.1

33.2 6

35.1 5.7

36.6 4.4

38 3.7

39.2 3.1

40.5 3.4

42.3 4.3

43.6 3.2

44.9 2.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

131 0.6

134.9 2.9

140.5 4.2

144.7 3

147.8 2.1

149.5 1.1

150.8 0.9

152.9 1.4

155.3 1.5

157.6 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

28.1 71.6 31.1

29.6 72.3 33

31.3 74.2 34.8

32.1 76 36

32.8 77.3 37.1

33.3 77.4 38.2

33.9 77.2 39.2

34.7 77.5 40.4

35.7 78.1 41.5

36.7 78.9 42.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9 2.9

8.9 -0.3

9.1 1.4

9.2 1.7

9.4 1.7

9.6 2.4

9.8 2.3

10 2.1

10.2 1.9

10.4 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.9 0.9

61.5 2.6

62.5 1.6

63 0.8

63.8 1.2

64.5 1.1

65.2 1

65.8 1

66.7 1.3

67.8 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

90.3 8.8

98.6 9.3

104 5.5

109.6 5.3

117.3 7.1

124.7 6.3

132.5 6.3

141.7 7

150.5 6.2

158.7 5.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

85.1 2.4

86.8 1.9

88.3 1.8

90.4 2.4

92.8 2.6

95.1 2.5

97.1 2.1

98.9 1.9

100.7 1.8

102.3 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.3 0.1

67.4 1.6

68.4 1.6

68.9 0.6

69 0.2

69.3 0.4

69.6 0.5

69.8 0.3

70.2 0.6

70.8 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 0.3

26.7 -0.2

26.9 0.6

27.2 1.2

27.4 0.7

27.6 0.8

27.8 0.7

28 0.4

28 0.3

28.2 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 -1.9

16.9 0

16.9 0.2

16.9 0.2

17 0.6

17.2 0.8

17.3 0.7

17.4 0.7

17.5 0.7

17.4 -0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.5 -0.2

59.2 1.2

60.7 2.6

61.4 1.2

62.1 1.1

62.8 1.1

63.4 1

64.1 1

64.8 1.1

65.4 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

49588.9

51966.6

54008.9

55891.4

58216.2

60401.3

62651.1

65235.7

67932.9

70641.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1347.7 0.8

1361.9 1.1

1380.3 1.4

1400.6 1.5

1422.2 1.5

1444.9 1.6

1468.3 1.6

1492.2 1.6

1516.7 1.6

1541.4 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

692.2 1

699.2 1

707.8 1.2

718.9 1.6

730.2 1.6

742.2 1.6

754.6 1.7

767.2 1.7

779.3 1.6

790.4 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.8

8.9

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.7

6.2

5.7

5.2

4.8

10285 8829 1456

12645 10587 2058

13450 10974 2476

13695 11020 2674

14094 10817 3277

14676 11035 3640

14906 11070 3836

15139 11088 4051

15555 11162 4392

15872 11175 4697

Continued 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

104.8 6.8 52.7 52

111.6 6.5 55.5 56

118.6 6.3 58.5 60.1

125.9 6.1 61.6 64.3

133.5 6.1 64.9 68.6

141.5 6 68.4 73.1

149.9 5.9 72.1 77.8

158.7 5.9 76 82.7

167.8 5.7 80 87.8

177.3 5.7 84.2 93.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.7 4.8

72.9 4.6

76.1 4.4

79.3 4.2

82.6 4.2

86 4.1

89.4 3.9

92.8 3.9

96.3 3.7

99.8 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

66.9 44.5

70.1 45.8

73.3 47.1

76.6 48.3

80 49.5

83.5 50.7

87 51.9

90.7 53.1

94.5 54.2

98.4 55.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

66.7 3.6

69 3.4

71.4 3.4

73.8 3.4

76.3 3.3

78.9 3.4

81.5 3.4

84.3 3.4

87.1 3.3

89.9 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

769.1 2.1

783.9 1.9

798.7 1.9

814.2 1.9

830.9 2.1

847.5 2

864.1 2

881.6 2

899.3 2

916.8 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 -0.8

29.4 -1.5

29 -1.3

28.7 -1.1

28.4 -1

28.1 -0.8

27.9 -0.8

27.7 -0.8

27.5 -0.7

27.3 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

739.3 2.2

754.5 2.1

769.8 2

785.5 2

802.5 2.2

819.4 2.1

836.2 2.1

853.9 2.1

871.8 2.1

889.4 2

46.2 2.9

47.4 2.7

48.7 2.7

50 2.8

51.7 3.3

53.4 3.3

55 3

56.4 2.7

57.9 2.6

59.5 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

159.9 1.5

162.4 1.5

164.8 1.5

167.3 1.5

169.7 1.5

172.1 1.4

174.2 1.2

176.3 1.2

178.1 1.1

179.9 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

37.7 79.6 43

38.6 80.3 43.9

39.4 80.9 44.8

40.2 81.5 45.7

41 82.1 46.5

41.7 82.6 47.4

42.3 83.2 48

42.9 83.9 48.6

43.3 84.8 49

43.7 85.5 49.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 1.7

10.8 1.9

11 2

11.2 2.1

11.5 2.1

11.7 2.3

12 2.5

12.3 2.6

12.7 2.8

13 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.9 1.5

69.7 1.2

70.4 1.1

71.2 1.1

72.2 1.4

73.1 1.3

73.9 1.1

74.7 1.1

75.7 1.3

76.9 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

166.2 4.8

173.4 4.3

180.6 4.2

188.2 4.2

196.8 4.5

205.2 4.3

213.9 4.2

223.5 4.5

233.1 4.3

241.7 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

103.8 1.4

105.1 1.3

106.4 1.3

107.8 1.3

109.1 1.2

110.3 1.1

111.6 1.2

112.9 1.2

114.4 1.3

115.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

71.4 0.9

72.1 0.9

72.7 0.9

73.4 1

74.1 0.9

74.7 0.9

75.4 1

76.2 1

77.1 1.2

77.9 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 1.3

29 1.8

29.5 1.7

30 1.5

30.4 1.4

30.9 1.6

31.5 1.7

32 1.8

32.6 1.7

33.1 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 1.8

17.9 0.8

18 0.8

18.1 0.8

18.3 0.8

18.4 0.8

18.6 0.8

18.7 0.8

18.9 0.8

19.5 3.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

66.2 1.1

66.9 1.1

67.6 1

68.2 0.9

68.8 1

69.5 1

70.2 0.9

70.8 0.9

71.4 0.9

72 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

73468.4

76218.4

78866.3

81571.7

84518.1

87465.1

90408.8

93431.6

96521.2

99675.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1566.5 1.6

1591.8 1.6

1617.4 1.6

1643.2 1.6

1669.2 1.6

1695.5 1.6

1722 1.6

1748.7 1.6

1775.6 1.5

1802.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

801.1 1.4

811.8 1.3

822.7 1.3

833.9 1.4

845.8 1.4

859.1 1.6

873 1.6

887.2 1.6

901.5 1.6

915.9 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

15899 11003 4896

15779 10870 4909

15544 10758 4786

15435 10733 4702

15551 10904 4647

15498 10929 4569

15244 10748 4496

14910 10470 4440

14718 10324 4395

14756 10387 4370

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

186.9 5.4 88.2 98.7

197 5.4 92.4 104.5

207.5 5.3 96.8 110.7

218.7 5.4 101.4 117.3

230.7 5.5 106.4 124.4

243.6 5.6 111.7 131.9

257.7 5.8 117.7 140

272.6 5.8 124.1 148.5

288.4 5.8 130.7 157.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

103.2 3.4

106.6 3.3

110.2 3.4

114 3.4

118 3.5

122.3 3.6

126.9 3.8

131.7 3.8

136.7 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

102.2 56.4

106.1 57.4

110.1 58.5

114.4 59.6

119 60.9

123.9 62.2

129.2 63.6

134.8 65.2

140.7 66.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

92.8 3.2

95.8 3.2

98.9 3.2

102 3.2

105.3 3.2

108.8 3.3

112.4 3.3

116 3.3

119.7 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

931 1.6

945.2 1.5

959.5 1.5

975 1.6

991 1.6

1008.1 1.7

1028.6 2

1050.2 2.1

1072.9 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.2 -0.5

27 -0.7

26.8 -0.7

26.7 -0.6

26.6 -0.5

26.5 -0.4

26.4 -0.2

26.4 0.1

26.5 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

903.8 1.6

918.2 1.6

932.7 1.6

948.4 1.7

964.4 1.7

981.6 1.8

1002.1 2.1

1023.8 2.2

1046.5 2.2

61 2.5

62.3 2.2

63.6 2

64.8 1.9

66 1.9

67.4 2.1

68.9 2.3

70.5 2.3

72.2 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

181.4 0.8

182.7 0.7

183.5 0.4

184.2 0.4

184.8 0.3

185.3 0.3

186.2 0.5

186.9 0.4

187.5 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

44 86.2 49.8

44.2 86.9 49.9

44.2 87.6 49.7

44.3 88.3 49.4

44.3 89 49.1

44.3 89.6 48.8

44.4 90.4 48.5

44.5 91.1 48.2

44.6 91.7 47.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 2.6

13.7 2.5

14 2.4

14.4 2.5

14.7 2.3

15 2.4

15.4 2.7

15.9 2.8

16.3 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

77.8 1.3

78.7 1.1

79.6 1.1

80.6 1.3

81.7 1.3

82.7 1.3

83.8 1.4

84.9 1.3

86 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

248.8 3

256.1 2.9

264.1 3.1

273.2 3.5

283 3.6

293.9 3.9

306.8 4.4

321.1 4.7

336.6 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

117.2 1.1

118.5 1.1

119.7 1

120.9 1

122 0.9

123 0.8

124.1 0.9

125.1 0.8

126 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

78.8 1.1

79.5 0.9

80.3 1

81 0.9

81.8 1

82.5 0.8

83.5 1.2

84.5 1.2

85.4 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.7 1.7

34.3 1.7

34.8 1.5

35.3 1.5

35.8 1.5

36.4 1.5

37.1 1.8

37.7 1.8

38.4 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 -1.7

19.3 0.8

19.5 0.8

19.6 0.8

19.8 0.8

20 0.8

20.1 0.8

20.3 0.8

20.4 0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

72.5 0.7

73.1 0.8

73.7 0.8

74.3 0.8

74.9 0.8

75.5 0.8

76.2 0.9

76.9 0.9

77.6 0.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

102688

105696

108888

112269

115775

119446

123265

127270

131452

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1829.6 1.5

1856.7 1.5

1884 1.5

1911.3 1.4

1938.7 1.4

1966.2 1.4

1993.8 1.4

2021.6 1.4

2049.6 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

930.5 1.6

945.2 1.6

959.9 1.6

974.8 1.6

989.8 1.5

1004.9 1.5

1020.2 1.5

1035.6 1.5

1051.4 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

14583 10329 4254

14278 10077 4201

14164 10014 4150

14209 10080 4130

14224 10145 4080

14213 10196 4017

14190 10173 4017

14095 10129 3966

14036 10114 3922


Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show moderate growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.8 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 25.8, the second lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth should be 2.1 percent, some of the lowest growth rates in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be at 39.2, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.3 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 16,717.4 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to decline by -0.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will be the second worst in the state, averaging at 11.3 percent. The Education and Health Services sector is expected to be the highest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.5 percent growth rate. This is followed by the Financial sector, averaging a growth rate of 0.3 percent a year, and the State and Local Government sector at 0.2 percent. All other sectors will be in decline. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -4.4 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 580,594 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,841 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 27,977 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees • Geico – 1,850 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees • FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Lakeland Commission cuts transportation impact fees • In hopes of spurring development, Lakeland reduced transportation impact fees to mirror those in Polk County. • Single-family homes were reduced by 21.6%, apartment per unit by 60.1%, and warehouses per 1,000 square feet by 40.2%. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 4, 2009 Polk’s GM dealers appear to be clear of Friday’s cuts • None of the six area GM dealers received notice from corporate headquarters that local dealerships would be affected by the corporation-wide cuts.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


Lake l a n d

• It has been speculated that the reason for this is because the dealers are in a market that is doing well due to a heavy tourism sector. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 15, 2009 PCC program has open house • Polk Community College is moving from a twoyear institution to one that offers four-year degrees. • PCC will be offering new bachelors of applied science degree in supervision and management beginning in January 2010. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 17, 2009 Report: Premiums soar as competition dwindles • Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida (45%) and Aetna (12%) control more than 50% of the healthinsurance market in the Lakeland-Winter Haven area. • This consolidation has led to increased premiums, which grew three times faster than wages in the period from 2000 to 2007. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 20, 2009 $13.9 million widening approved for Berkley Road • A $13.9 million bid by Hubbard Construction of Winter Park was approved by Polk County Commissioners. • The project is scheduled to take approximately 18 months and will provide an access road to the planned USF Polytechnic campus. • Also approved is an $11.1 million bid by Mid-State Paving Auburndale to construct the next phase of Ernie Caldwell Blvd. and Pine Tree Trail. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 20, 2009

64

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Lake l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

1

45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

2

2.5

Lakeland Payroll Employment 320.0 300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

1.5

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Lakeland Payroll Employment

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.3 -1.7 7.5 10.8

18.1 -2.2 7.5 10.6

18.2 -1.5 7.5 10.6

18.3 -0.2 7.6 10.7

18.5 0.9 7.6 10.8

18.7 3 7.7 11

18.8 3.6 7.7 11.1

19 4 7.8 11.2

19.3 4.4 7.9 11.4

19.5 4.7 7.9 11.6

19.8 5.2 8 11.8

20.1 5.6 8.1 12

20.4 6.1 8.2 12.2

20.8 6.3 8.4 12.4

21.1 6.4 8.5 12.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 -1.4

15 -0.7

15 -1.4

15 -0.7

15.1 -0.1

15.2 1.5

15.3 1.9

15.4 2.2

15.5 2.6

15.6 2.8

15.8 3.2

15.9 3.7

16.1 4.3

16.3 4.5

16.5 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31.1 25.7

30.8 25.4

30.8 25.3

30.9 25.3

31 25.3

31.3 25.5

31.5 25.5

31.7 25.6

32 25.7

32.3 25.8

32.7 26

33.1 26.2

33.5 26.4

33.9 26.6

34.2 26.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.1 3.2

38.2 2.7

38.4 2.3

38.6 2.3

38.8 1.8

38.9 1.8

39.1 1.7

39.3 1.7

39.5 1.7

39.6 1.7

39.8 1.7

40 1.7

40.2 1.9

40.4 2.1

40.7 2.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.9 -5.9

195.6 -5.7

195.1 -5.2

195.2 -3.7

195.4 -0.8

195.7 0.1

196.3 0.6

197.2 1

198.2 1.5

199.4 1.9

200.7 2.3

202.1 2.5

203.8 2.8

205.5 3

207 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

15 -8.5

14.4 -11.6

14 -13.5

13.8 -11.6

13.7 -8.6

13.8 -4.3

13.8 -1.2

13.9 0.4

14 2

14.1 2.8

14.3 3.6

14.5 4.3

14.6 4.6

14.8 4.4

14.9 4.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181.9 -5.6

181.2 -5.2

181.1 -4.4

181.3 -3

181.7 -0.1

181.9 0.4

182.5 0.7

183.3 1.1

184.2 1.4

185.3 1.8

186.4 2.1

187.6 2.4

189.2 2.7

190.7 2.9

192.1 3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 -15

11.5 -14

11.2 -14

10.9 -12.2

10.6 -10.3

10.4 -9.6

10.3 -7.7

10.3 -5.8

10.4 -2.4

10.5 1.2

10.7 3.7

10.9 6.2

11.1 7.6

11.4 8.1

11.5 7.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.6 -4.9

45.4 -4.7

45.5 -2.9

45.5 -1.2

45.6 0.1

45.6 0.5

45.7 0.4

45.7 0.4

45.8 0.3

45.9 0.6

46.3 1.4

46.6 1.9

47 2.7

47.4 3.3

47.9 3.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 25.1 11.4

9.1 25.1 11.3

9.1 25.1 11.4

9.1 25.1 11.4

9.1 25.2 11.4

9.1 25.2 11.4

9 25.1 11.5

9.1 25 11.5

9.1 24.8 11.7

9.3 24.6 11.8

9.4 24.7 12

9.5 24.8 12.2

9.6 24.9 12.4

9.8 25 12.6

9.9 25.1 12.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -5.8

1.9 -6.2

1.9 -5.5

1.9 -5.7

1.8 -6

1.8 -4.4

1.9 -1.4

1.9 2.2

1.9 4.9

1.9 4.6

1.9 2.6

1.9 0.9

1.9 0.2

1.9 0.3

1.9 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 -2.2

11.7 -3.1

11.8 -0.8

11.8 0.2

11.8 0.7

11.8 0.6

11.8 0

11.8 -0.1

11.8 0.3

11.9 1

11.9 1.5

12 1.8

12.1 2.1

12.2 2.3

12.2 2.2

26.4 -17.4

26.2 -17.7

26.1 -17.2

26.1 -13.4

26.2 -0.6

26.6 1.6

27.2 4.2

27.9 6.8

28.4 8.4

28.9 8.8

29.4 7.9

29.9 7.3

30.5 7.2

31 7.1

31.3 6.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.7 2.4

30 3.2

30.2 3.1

30.6 3.3

31 4.2

31.3 4.3

31.4 4.1

31.5 2.9

31.7 2.3

31.9 1.9

31.9 1.6

31.9 1.3

32 1

32.1 0.7

32.2 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 -6.9

16.2 -3.6

16.2 -1

16.2 -1.1

16.2 -0.6

16.2 -0.2

16.1 -0.6

16.1 -0.5

16.2 -0.3

16.2 -0.1

16.2 0.6

16.3 1.1

16.4 1.3

16.4 1.5

16.5 1.6

8.4 -3

8.4 -2.7

8.4 -1.7

8.4 -0.5

8.4 -0.1

8.4 0.6

8.4 -0.3

8.4 -0.4

8.4 -0.3

8.4 -0.4

8.4 -0.3

8.3 -0.7

8.3 -1

8.3 -0.9

8.3 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -3.6

1.3 -4.6

1.3 -2.6

1.3 -0.6

1.4 8

1.4 3.7

1.3 0.2

1.3 -1

1.3 -8.5

1.3 -3.8

1.3 -1

1.3 -0.4

1.3 0

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.6 1.3

28.6 0.8

28.5 -0.6

28.5 -0.7

28.5 -0.5

28.4 -0.5

28.3 -0.7

28.4 -0.6

28.3 -0.6

28.3 -0.4

28.3 -0.1

28.4 0.1

28.5 0.8

28.7 1.3

28.9 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16076.7

16049.7

16075.1

16116.3

16230.2

16335.4

16471.6

16583.8

16742.8

16913.2

17093.3

17283.2

17505.3

17702.6

17882.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

587.6 1.2

589.3 1.2

591.2 1.2

593.1 1.2

594.9 1.2

596.6 1.2

598.6 1.2

600.4 1.2

602.2 1.2

603.9 1.2

605.8 1.2

607.9 1.2

610.3 1.3

612.7 1.5

615.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

279.8 3.4

279.9 2.7

280.1 0.3

280.6 0.4

281.2 0.5

281.6 0.6

281.9 0.6

282.1 0.5

282.2 0.3

282.3 0.2

282.4 0.2

282.5 0.1

282.8 0.2

283.1 0.3

283.5 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.5

11.9

12.1

12.3

12.3

12.2

11.9

11.6

11.3

11.1

10.8

10.7

10.3

10

9.7

1836 1400 436

1814 1487 327

2214 1865 349

2725 2385 340

3136 2807 329

3608 3299 309

4043 3753 289

4531 4254 277

4987 4736 252

5344 5078 266

5611 5337 274

5803 5498 306

6087 5752 334

6296 5924 372

6339 5942 397

*Quarterly at an annual rate

66

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7

13.1 4.7 6 7

14.4 10.6 6.5 7.9

15.8 9.8 7.2 8.7

17.1 8.1 7.7 9.5

18 4.7 7.8 10.2

18.5 3 7.8 10.7

18.2 -1.3 7.6 10.7

18.6 1.8 7.6 10.9

12 0.6

12.4 2.7

13.3 7.7

14.2 6.7

14.9 5.2

15.3 2.1

15.2 -0.4

15 -1.1

15.1 0.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.9 24.1

25.6 24.3

27.6 25.5

29.3 26.3

30.7 26.8

31.3 26.6

31.8 26.1

31 25.6

31.2 25.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 1.7

32.5 3.8

33 1.5

34.3 3.7

35.9 4.7

36.4 1.5

37.1 1.8

38.1 2.8

38.9 1.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

182.9 -0.3

184.7 1

195.6 5.9

208.1 6.4

212.6 2.2

212.7 0.1

208.5 -2

197.6 -5.3

195.6 -1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 -2.2

18.1 -1.9

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.4

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.5

16.3 -5.2

14.8 -9.8

13.8 -6.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

164.4 -0.1

166.6 1.3

177.4 6.5

189.8 7

194.7 2.6

195.5 0.4

192.2 -1.7

182.8 -4.9

181.8 -0.5

13.6 -2.8

12.9 -5.1

14.4 11.4

16.2 12.6

16.9 4.1

15.8 -6.5

13.7 -13.4

11.7 -14.2

10.6 -10

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

44 -3

42.1 -4.2

43.9 4.3

47.6 8.4

48.9 2.8

49 0.1

47.7 -2.6

45.6 -4.4

45.6 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.5 25 10.4

9.1 22.5 10.5

9.4 23.5 11

10.3 25.3 12.1

10.4 26.1 12.5

10.1 26.4 12.5

9.6 26.2 12

9.2 25.2 11.4

9.1 25.2 11.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 -4.9

2.2 -7.9

2.2 -1.1

2.3 3

2.4 2.9

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -4.3

1.9 -6.3

1.9 -4.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 5.3

11 2

10.9 -1

11.1 1.8

11.6 4.1

11.8 2.5

12 1.2

11.7 -2.1

11.8 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 1.8

26.4 22.2

31.7 20

34.2 8

33.9 -0.8

33 -2.5

32 -3

27.2 -15

26.5 -2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -1.3

22.9 1.7

24.1 5.3

25.6 6.1

26.6 4.2

28 5.2

29.1 3.9

29.9 2.7

31.1 4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.8 4.8

15 -5.4

15.3 2.2

16.5 7.7

17 2.7

17.4 2.9

17.1 -1.8

16.3 -4.9

16.2 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 5.1

7.5 0.9

8 7.6

9 11.9

9.5 5.5

9 -5.3

8.6 -3.9

8.4 -2.5

8.4 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 3

1.4 -3

1.3 -2.4

1.4 4.4

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.1

1.3 -3.8

1.4 2.8

24.9 0.1

25.3 1.6

25.5 1

26 2

26.7 2.6

27.9 4.3

28.4 2

28.6 0.7

28.5 -0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13080.7

13811.5

14865.8

16264

16821.8

16843.8

16905.4

16154.5

16288.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

499.5 1.5

509.5 2

522.9 2.6

540.3 3.3

558.6 3.4

573.4 2.6

581.5 1.4

588.6 1.2

595.8 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

238.8 0.7

240.7 0.8

248.4 3.2

255.1 2.7

261.5 2.5

267 2.1

273.2 2.3

279.8 2.4

281.3 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.5

4.9

4

3.6

4.4

6.7

11.6

12.2

4907 4484 423

6789 6169 620

9088 8297 790

12877 11725 1152

9528 8279 1249

4379 3999 380

3231 2432 799

1797 1517 280

3378 3061 317

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.4 4.6 7.9 11.5

20.6 6.1 8.3 12.3

21.9 6.1 8.7 13.1

23.1 5.9 9.2 14

24.6 6.4 9.6 15

26.1 5.9 10.1 16

27.6 5.9 10.6 17

29.3 6.2 11.1 18.2

31.3 6.5 11.7 19.6

33.3 6.7 12.2 21.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 2.7

16.2 4.2

16.9 4.1

17.6 4.1

18.4 4.5

19.1 4

19.8 3.9

20.7 4.1

21.6 4.5

22.6 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.2 25.8

33.7 26.5

35.1 27.1

36.6 27.7

38.2 28.5

39.7 29.1

41.3 29.6

43 30.3

45.1 31.1

47.3 32.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.5 1.7

40.3 2

41.4 2.6

42.5 2.8

43.8 2.9

45.1 3

46.5 3

47.9 3.1

49.3 3

50.9 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

198.9 1.7

204.6 2.9

210.3 2.8

214.6 2.1

219.1 2.1

223 1.8

226.7 1.6

231 1.9

235 1.7

238.9 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.2

14.7 4.3

15.2 3.5

15.4 1.5

15.5 0.6

15.6 0.2

15.6 0

15.6 0.1

15.6 0

15.5 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

184.8 1.6

189.9 2.8

195.1 2.7

199.2 2.1

203.6 2.2

207.4 1.9

211.1 1.8

215.4 2

219.4 1.9

223.4 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 -0.9

11.2 7.5

12 7.2

12.7 5.9

13.2 3.8

13.6 2.6

13.9 2.3

14.3 2.9

14.5 1.8

14.8 1.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.9 0.7

47.2 2.8

49.1 4

50.4 2.7

51.4 1.8

51.9 1.1

52.3 0.8

53 1.3

53.8 1.4

54.5 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.2 24.8 11.8

9.7 25 12.5

10.2 25.5 13.2

10.5 25.8 13.7

10.7 26.2 14.1

10.8 26.1 14.6

11 25.9 15

11.2 26 15.5

11.5 26.1 15.9

11.8 26.4 16.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 3.6

1.9 0.5

2 1.6

2 1.9

2 1.7

2.1 2

2.1 1.9

2.1 1.6

2.2 1.5

2.2 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.9 0.6

12.1 2.1

12.3 1.2

12.3 0.2

12.4 0.7

12.5 0.7

12.5 0.5

12.6 0.5

12.7 0.9

12.9 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.7 8

30.7 7.1

31.8 3.6

32.8 3.3

34.7 5.6

36.5 5.3

38.5 5.4

40.8 6.1

43 5.2

44.9 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.7 2.2

32 0.9

32.4 1.2

33.1 1.9

33.8 2.4

34.6 2.2

35.3 1.9

35.9 1.7

36.4 1.5

36.9 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 -0.1

16.4 1.4

16.6 1

16.6 0.1

16.5 -0.3

16.5 -0.1

16.5 -0.2

16.4 -0.3

16.4 0

16.5 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -0.3

8.3 -0.8

8.3 -0.1

8.3 0.4

8.3 0

8.3 0

8.3 -0.1

8.3 -0.4

8.3 -0.5

8.2 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -3.7

1.3 0.1

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.6

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.9

1.4 4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 -0.4

28.6 1

29.3 2.4

29.6 1

29.8 0.8

30.1 0.8

30.3 0.8

30.5 0.8

30.8 0.8

31 0.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16833.3

17593.4

18228.7

18797.5

19522.6

20200.3

20887.8

21673.5

22485.7

23313

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

603.1 1.2

611.5 1.4

621.8 1.7

632.8 1.8

644.5 1.8

656.6 1.9

669.1 1.9

681.7 1.9

693.8 1.8

704.9 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

282.3 0.3

283 0.3

284.6 0.6

286.6 0.7

289.2 0.9

292 1

294.9 1

297.8 1

300.9 1.1

304.5 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.2

10.2

9.1

8.6

8.1

7.6

7

6.5

5.9

5.5

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5118 4851 267

6131 5779 352

6297 5896 401

6345 5864 481

6560 5868 692

6724 5868 856

6704 5752 952

6699 5672 1027

6762 5628 1134

6754 5559 1196

Continued 68

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

35.5 6.5 12.8 22.7

37.7 6.2 13.4 24.4

40 6 14 26

42.3 5.7 14.6 27.7

44.7 5.6 15.2 29.5

47.2 5.6 15.9 31.3

49.8 5.4 16.6 33.1

52.4 5.4 17.4 35.1

55.2 5.2 18.1 37.1

58 5.2 18.9 39.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 4.6

24.7 4.4

25.7 4.1

26.7 3.8

27.7 3.7

28.7 3.6

29.7 3.5

30.7 3.4

31.7 3.2

32.7 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

49.6 33

51.9 33.9

54.2 34.8

56.5 35.6

58.8 36.4

61.2 37.2

63.6 37.9

66.1 38.7

68.6 39.4

71.1 40

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 3.2

54.2 3.1

55.8 3

57.4 2.9

59.1 2.9

60.8 2.9

62.6 3

64.5 3

66.4 2.9

68.3 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

242.5 1.5

246 1.4

249.5 1.4

253 1.4

256.8 1.5

260.5 1.5

264.2 1.4

268.1 1.5

271.9 1.4

275.6 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 -0.9

15.2 -1.4

15 -1.2

14.8 -1.2

14.6 -1.2

14.5 -0.9

14.4 -0.9

14.2 -0.9

14.1 -0.9

14 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

227.1 1.6

230.8 1.6

234.5 1.6

238.2 1.6

242.1 1.7

246 1.6

249.9 1.6

253.9 1.6

257.8 1.6

261.6 1.4

15 1.5

15.2 1.4

15.4 1.5

15.7 1.6

16 2

16.3 2.2

16.6 1.8

16.9 1.5

17.1 1.4

17.4 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

55.3 1.4

56.2 1.5

57 1.6

57.9 1.5

58.8 1.5

59.6 1.5

60.4 1.2

61.1 1.2

61.8 1.1

62.4 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

12.1 26.6 16.6

12.4 26.8 17

12.6 27 17.5

12.9 27.1 17.9

13.1 27.3 18.3

13.3 27.4 18.7

13.5 27.5 19.1

13.7 27.7 19.4

13.8 27.9 19.6

13.9 28.1 19.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 1.5

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.7

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.7

2.5 1.9

2.5 2

2.6 2.1

2.6 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13 1

13.1 0.9

13.2 0.7

13.3 0.7

13.4 1

13.5 0.8

13.6 0.6

13.7 0.7

13.8 0.9

14 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

46.7 3.8

48.3 3.5

49.9 3.3

51.6 3.4

53.5 3.7

55.3 3.5

57.2 3.5

59.3 3.7

61.4 3.5

63.2 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.4 1.1

37.8 1.1

38.2 1.1

38.6 1.1

39 0.9

39.3 0.9

39.7 1

40.1 1

40.5 1.1

41 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 0.3

16.6 0.5

16.7 0.4

16.8 0.4

16.8 0.4

16.9 0.3

16.9 0.4

17 0.4

17.1 0.6

17.2 0.5

8.3 0.5

8.4 1

8.4 0.9

8.5 0.7

8.6 0.6

8.6 0.8

8.7 0.9

8.8 0.9

8.9 0.9

8.9 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.8

1.4 0.6

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.9

1.6 3.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 0.9

31.6 0.9

31.8 0.8

32 0.7

32.3 0.7

32.5 0.6

32.7 0.7

32.9 0.6

33.1 0.6

33.3 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

24143.2

24961.5

25738.5

26514.5

27353.5

28190.3

29020.7

29866.4

30725.9

31599

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

715.7 1.5

726.6 1.5

737.7 1.5

748.8 1.5

759.9 1.5

771.1 1.5

782.3 1.5

793.5 1.4

804.8 1.4

816.1 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

307.9 1.1

311.3 1.1

314.9 1.1

318.5 1.2

322.4 1.2

326.9 1.4

331.5 1.4

336.2 1.4

341 1.4

345.8 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

6574 5415 1159

6401 5262 1139

6230 5133 1097

6184 5052 1132

6193 5049 1144

6113 4987 1126

5978 4848 1130

5799 4672 1127

5676 4546 1130

5636 4503 1133

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2009 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

60.9 5 19.6 41.3

64 4.9 20.4 43.6

67.1 4.9 21.1 45.9

70.4 4.9 21.9 48.4

73.9 5 22.8 51.1

77.6 5.1 23.7 53.9

81.6 5.2 24.6 57

85.9 5.2 25.7 60.2

90.4 5.2 26.7 63.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 3

34.6 2.9

35.6 2.9

36.7 2.9

37.8 3

38.9 3.1

40.2 3.3

41.5 3.2

42.8 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

73.7 40.7

76.3 41.3

78.9 41.9

81.7 42.6

84.6 43.3

87.7 44

91.1 44.9

94.6 45.7

98.3 46.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.2 2.8

72.3 2.9

74.3 2.7

76.3 2.7

78.4 2.8

80.6 2.8

82.8 2.8

85.1 2.7

87.3 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

278.4 1

281.1 1

283.7 0.9

286.6 1

289.4 1

292.6 1.1

296.6 1.4

300.8 1.4

305.6 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 -0.6

13.8 -0.9

13.7 -0.8

13.6 -0.6

13.5 -0.5

13.5 -0.4

13.5 -0.2

13.5 0.1

13.5 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

264.5 1.1

267.3 1.1

270 1

272.9 1.1

275.9 1.1

279.1 1.2

283.1 1.4

287.3 1.5

292 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 1.3

17.8 1

17.9 0.8

18.1 0.7

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.8

18.5 1

18.7 1

18.9 1.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.9 0.9

63.4 0.7

63.7 0.4

63.9 0.4

64 0.3

64.2 0.2

64.5 0.5

64.7 0.4

64.9 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

14 28.2 20.1

14.1 28.4 20.3

14.1 28.5 20.3

14.1 28.7 20.3

14.1 28.9 20.2

14.1 29 20.1

14.1 29.3 20.1

14.1 29.5 20.1

14.1 29.6 20

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.7 1.9

2.7 1.9

2.8 1.8

2.8 1.9

2.9 1.7

2.9 1.7

3 2

3.1 2

3.1 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 0.8

14.2 0.6

14.3 0.6

14.4 0.8

14.5 0.8

14.6 0.8

14.8 0.9

14.9 0.9

15 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

64.5 2.1

65.9 2.1

67.4 2.3

69.2 2.6

71 2.7

73.2 3

75.8 3.6

78.8 3.9

82.3 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41.4 0.9

41.7 0.9

42.1 0.8

42.4 0.8

42.7 0.7

43 0.6

43.3 0.7

43.6 0.6

43.8 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 0.5

17.3 0.3

17.4 0.4

17.4 0.3

17.5 0.4

17.5 0.2

17.6 0.6

17.7 0.6

17.8 0.4

9 0.8

9.1 0.9

9.1 0.6

9.2 0.7

9.3 0.7

9.3 0.7

9.4 0.9

9.5 0.9

9.6 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -1.6

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.9

1.7 0.9

1.7 0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 0.5

33.6 0.5

33.8 0.6

33.9 0.5

34.1 0.5

34.3 0.6

34.5 0.6

34.7 0.6

35 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

32419.9

33230.3

34090.8

35003.2

35947.1

36930.4

37947.8

39012.7

40142.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

827.3 1.4

838.7 1.4

850.2 1.4

861.7 1.4

873.2 1.3

884.7 1.3

896.2 1.3

907.7 1.3

919.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

350.5 1.4

355.3 1.4

360.1 1.4

365 1.3

369.8 1.3

374.6 1.3

379.5 1.3

384.4 1.3

389.3 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5529 4415 1114

5383 4257 1127

5305 4171 1134

5287 4130 1158

5262 4088 1174

5231 4039 1193

5197 3965 1232

5140 3884 1256

5098 3815 1283


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate-to-low growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.4 percent annually, one of the slowest rates in the state. However, per capita income is the second highest in Florida, at a level of 36.5. Average annual wage growth should be 2.3 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 50.0, one of the highest in the state. Miami is expected to be averaging a population growth rate of 0.1 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. The area ranked first in the state for gross metro product at a level of 210,686.4 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to decline at an average rate of -0.2 percent each year. Unemployment is expected to be 9.4 percent, one of the lowest in the state. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 2.9 percent annually, followed by Education and Health Services at an average of 1.9 percent growth each year. All other sectors will see declining rates. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -5.7 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,414,772 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,398,245 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,751,234 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,265,293 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,831,077 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 240,849 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • Federal Government – 20,400 employees • Florida State Government – 17,000 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,826 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • University of Miami – 9,874 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Source: The Beacon Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Lease-To-Own condo deals attracting buyers • South Florida developers, such as Related Group, are increasingly using lease-to-own programs that credit 12 months of rent toward a down payment to fill empty complexes. • Lease-to-own is serving as a bridge between developers and buyers during the credit crunch. • Corporate lease-to-own programs were popular during the last condo slump in the 1980s when contract terms were similar to current trends. • Lease-to-own options are very market specific and can only be expected to last another year or two until the credit slump improves. Source: Miami Herald, May 4, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Funding denial puts Tri-Rail on rocky ride • South Florida’s commuter service Tri-Rail is considering shutting down after failing to secure a $2 surcharge on Florida car rental transactions that would have raised 45 to 50 million dollars, enough to cover its operation costs. • Tri-Rail’s most significant economic crisis in its history comes at a time when it is experiencing record ridership; roughly 14,000 passengers a day compared to around 7,500 in 2005. • The increase in ridership is most likely a result of increased fuel prices and the recession. • A board meeting on May 22 will determine the fate of Tri-Rail, deciding from two bleak pathways that will govern the future of the 20-year-old commuter line. Source: Miami Herald, May 8, 2009 Miami budget shortfall forces hiring freeze • In the face of a $10.2 million deficit, the City of Miami has instituted a hiring freeze as well as denying paid leave time for salaried employees. • Officials could not promise to avoid future layoffs as a result of the budget deficit. • City CFO Larry Spring expressed that it was his goal to lift the hiring freeze by the end of the fiscal year, saying “but right now, it’s hard to tell.” Source: Miami Herald, May 13, 2009 Dalai Lama offers $100,000 gift to FIU • Tibetan leader-in-exile the Dalai Lama offered $100,000 in an attempt to save Florida International University’s religious studies department, which is threatened with closure resulting from $27 million in budget cuts. • The $100,000 gift would not alone be enough to save the program with around 125 undergraduate students and 12 full-time faculty members, a department that costs the university roughly $600,000 a year.

72

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009

• Recreation/Sports Management and Athletic Training are also scheduled to close saving the university an additional $400,000 a year and will be decided upon in a June 12 meeting. Source: Miami Herald, May 26, 2009 South Florida tourism slump may be easing • The bleeding of the Miami tourism industry may finally be slowing as room rates in Miami-Dade County fell 12% in April, the smallest rate decline since January of last year. • Even the Keys, the area’s best performing sector, only improved 2 points and at the expense of reducing rates by 12%. • Many officials in the tourism industry expect European and Canadian tourists to sustain the industry through the critical summer season as was the case in the summer of 2008. Source: Miami Herald, May 27, 2009


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each Fort Lauderdale Beach MSA Miami - Ford Lauderdale -- Pompano Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Payroll Employment 4000.0

(Thousands)

3500.0

10.0%

3000.0

8.0% 6.0%

2500.0

4.0%

2000.0

2.0%

0.8

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

1500.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 600000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

500000.0

4.0%

400000.0

2.0%

300000.0

0.0%

200000.0

-2.0%

100000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Miami Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast*

2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

235.7 -1.8 110.6 125.1

232.3 -2.6 110.2 122

233.1 -1.7 110.8 122.3

234.9 -0.6 111.5 123.4

236.8 0.5 112.1 124.7

238.9 2.8 112.7 126.1

241.1 3.4 113.7 127.5

243.2 3.5 114.8 128.5

245.7 3.8 115.8 129.9

248.7 4.1 116.8 131.8

251.7 4.4 118 133.7

255.2 4.9 119.6 135.7

259 5.4 121.2 137.8

262.8 5.7 122.9 139.9

266.3 5.8 124.4 141.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

194.5 -1.5

191.7 -1.1

192 -1.7

192.8 -1.2

193.5 -0.5

194.4 1.4

195.4 1.8

196.2 1.8

197.3 2

198.7 2.2

200.3 2.5

202.2 3

204.3 3.6

206.3 3.8

208 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

43.4 35.8

42.8 35.3

43 35.4

43.4 35.6

43.8 35.8

44.2 36

44.6 36.2

45 36.3

45.5 36.5

46 36.7

46.5 37

47.1 37.3

47.7 37.6

48.3 38

48.9 38.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 3.2

48.6 2.8

48.8 2.3

49.1 2.4

49.4 2.1

49.6 2.2

49.9 2.2

50.2 2.1

50.4 2

50.6 2

50.9 1.9

51.2 2

51.5 2.2

51.8 2.4

52.2 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2273.5 -4.4

2257 -4

2255.3 -3.2

2254.9 -2.3

2256.9 -0.7

2257.9 0

2265.3 0.4

2274.6 0.9

2284.8 1.2

2295.4 1.7

2307.7 1.9

2323.7 2.2

2341.4 2.5

2358.1 2.7

2371.8 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

85 -9.7

81.4 -11.6

79 -12.8

78.1 -12.6

77.4 -8.9

77.4 -4.9

77.7 -1.6

78.1 0

78.7 1.6

79.6 2.9

80.7 3.8

81.4 4.3

82.1 4.4

82.8 4

83.6 3.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2188.5 -4.2

2175.6 -3.7

2176.3 -2.8

2176.8 -1.9

2179.5 -0.4

2180.5 0.2

2187.5 0.5

2196.5 0.9

2206.1 1.2

2215.7 1.6

2227 1.8

2242.3 2.1

2259.3 2.4

2275.3 2.7

2288.2 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

113.7 -18.1

111 -15

107.5 -14.1

104.6 -12.7

101.2 -11

99 -10.8

99.3 -7.6

98.6 -5.7

99.2 -2

100.1 1.1

101.1 1.8

102.7 4.2

104.6 5.5

106.3 6.2

107.8 6.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

518.6 -5.1

515.5 -4.3

514.3 -3

513.9 -2.5

513.4 -1

512.6 -0.6

511.1 -0.6

510.1 -0.7

509.4 -0.8

510.2 -0.5

513.1 0.4

516 1.2

519.3 2

523.2 2.5

526.8 2.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

140.5 286.3 91.8

139.3 285.4 91.3

139.6 283.4 91.9

139.1 283.4 92.2

138.5 283.4 92.1

137.9 283 92

137.1 281.7 91.8

136.9 279.8 92.2

137.9 277 93.3

139.3 275.3 94.5

140.6 276 95.6

142.1 276.5 96.9

143.8 276.9 98.2

145.6 277.6 99.9

147.5 277.8 101.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 -5.2

47.1 -5.4

46.9 -4.9

46.1 -6

45 -7

44.8 -4.9

45.5 -3

46.5 0.8

47 4.5

46.8 4.5

46.5 2.4

46.4 -0.1

46.3 -1.4

46.3 -1.2

46.2 -0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

166.2 -4.3

166.5 -2.1

167 -0.8

166.9 -0.3

166.4 0.1

166 -0.3

165.7 -0.8

165.8 -0.6

166.2 -0.1

166.8 0.5

167.4 1

168.1 1.4

169 1.7

169.7 1.8

170.2 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

330.8 -8

325.8 -7.9

328.9 -6.1

330.1 -3.6

331 0.1

335.4 3

345.9 5.2

356.1 7.9

363.3 9.7

369 10

375.3 8.5

384.4 7.9

393 8.2

400.5 8.6

405.4 8

334 2

335.5 2.3

337.5 1.1

340.9 2.2

344.7 3.2

348.4 3.8

349.6 3.6

349.4 2.5

351.3 1.9

353.1 1.3

353.7 1.2

353.8 1.3

354.5 0.9

355.1 0.6

355.2 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

252.8 -2.8

252.2 -1.6

252.4 -0.2

252 -0.9

252 -0.3

251.9 -0.1

250.6 -0.7

249.8 -0.9

249.8 -0.9

249.8 -0.8

249.9 -0.3

250.2 0.1

250.5 0.3

250.7 0.4

251.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

101.1 -2.9

100.4 -3.1

101.3 -2.1

101.9 0.5

102.2 1.1

102.7 2.3

102.7 1.3

102.9 1

103.1 0.8

103.2 0.4

103.2 0.5

103.1 0.1

102.9 -0.2

103 -0.2

103.2 0

33.6 -1.1

33.2 -2.4

33.2 -2.4

34 0.2

38 13.1

34.6 4.3

33.2 -0.1

33 -3

32.9 -13.6

32.8 -5.2

32.8 -1.1

32.8 -0.5

32.8 -0.2

32.8 0

32.8 0.1

289.3 0.2

288.4 -2

287.3 -1.2

286.4 -1.4

285.6 -1.3

285 -1.2

284 -1.2

284.2 -0.8

284 -0.6

284 -0.4

283.9 0

284.7 0.2

286.3 0.8

287.6 1.3

289.3 1.9

203225.9 202451.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

202983

203369

204590

205652

207423

208755

210631

212494

214464

216755

219287

221552

223525

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5430.8 0.3

5423 0.1

5415.5 -0.2

5410.3 -0.4

5406 -0.5

5403 -0.4

5401.5 -0.3

5402.4 -0.1

5404.9 0

5408.8 0.1

5413.9 0.2

5420.2 0.3

5427.9 0.4

5436.6 0.5

5446.6 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2810.2 -0.9

2802.6 -1.5

2801.2 -1.7

2801.7 -0.7

2803.8 -0.2

2806.7 0.1

2810.9 0.3

2814.3 0.4

2816.2 0.4

2818.7 0.4

2822.2 0.4

2825.6 0.4

2828.9 0.5

2834.2 0.5

2839.1 0.6

9.4 3401 2067 1333

9.6 4028 2596 1432

9.8 6721 3512 3209

10 8720 4789 3930

10.1 10157 6014 4143

10 12159 7628 4531

9.8 13951 9054 4897

9.6 15707 10683 5024

9.5 17584 12349 5235

9.4 19312 13729 5583

9.2 21018 14958 6059

9.1 22965 16187 6778

8.9 25082 17433 7649

8.7 27091 18403 8688

8.5 28400 18878 9522

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

*Quarterly at an annual rate

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2009


M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o mpa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2009 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4

189.8 9.1 93.5 96.3

205.6 8.3 101.1 104.6

222.6 8.2 108 114.6

232.5 4.5 111.6 120.9

238.1 2.4 112 126.1

234.4 -1.5 110.8 123.6

237.9 1.5 112.5 125.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

164 2.2

164.8 0.5

175.1 6.3

184.3 5.2

194.1 5.3