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Florida & Metro Forecast 2012-2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published April 2012


Dean’s Message Time is a funny thing. In some instances it flies by very quickly, yet in others, it seems to stand still. About University of Central Florida (UCF) T he Un iversit y of C ent r a l F lor id a i s a public, mu lt i-ca mpus, met ropolita n research u n i v e r s i t y, dedicated to ser v ing its surrou nd ing commu nit ies with their diverse and expanding populations, technologica l corridors, a nd internat iona l pa r t ners. The mission of the universit y is to of fer highqua lit y undergraduate and graduate educat ion, student development, a nd cont inuing education; to conduct research and creative activ ities; and to prov ide ser v ices t hat enhance t he intel lectua l, cu ltura l, env ironmenta l, a nd economic development of t he metropolitan region, address nationa l a nd internat iona l issues in key a reas, establish UCF as a major presence, a nd c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administrat i o n a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n a nd goa ls in prov iding intel lectua l leadership t hrough research, teaching, and ser vice. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while ma inta ining t he strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and qua lit y business education programs at t he undergraduate, masters, doctora l, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida a nd to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

For example, this forecast details how Florida is making a slow economic recovery. Dr. Sean Snaith likens the progress as more “tortoise than hare.” While he predicts the state will eventually experience growth in jobs, the housing market and even population, it could take a bit of time. That is a “bit of time” that will seem like eternity for those that are unemployed or fighting foreclosure. For many Florida residents, time is moving slowly and they are becoming impatient. On the other hand, time seems to move fast when you really enjoy what you are doing. I have served as the interim dean of the UCF College of Business Administration for the past two semesters. It is hard for me to believe my time in this position is almost over. After a national search, the university has selected Dr. Paul Jarley, current dean at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, to serve as the permanent dean beginning July 1. Since he is coming from Nevada, a state that has also been deeply affected by the economy, I think he will be able to relate to many of the issues that concern Florida. As my time as dean comes to an end, I would like to thank you for your support. I have enjoyed addressing you each quarter. Best wishes to you! Sincerely,

Foard F. Jones Interim Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2012 - 2015 April 2012 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Melissa Hedtke, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

Ta b l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89


F l o r id a H i g h l i g ht s

H i g h l i g ht s o f th e Ap r i l 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 F l o r id a F o r e c a s t • Florida’s economic recovery is still more tortoise than hare. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.4% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 2.2% in 2014, and 2.3% in 2015. It will be mid-2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The size of the labor force is a huge wild card in predicting the future path for the unemployment rate. When and to what extent discouraged workers begin to reenter the labor force will be a key to predicting the unemployment rate. • Unemployment rates will continue a long, slow decline through 2015. The emphasis is still on slow - it will be 2014 Q2 before we see unemployment fall below 9%. By the end of 2015 the unemployment rate will be below 8% for the first time since 2008. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market slack, came in at 17.6% for 2011. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2012-2015 are Construction (7.6%); Professional and Business Services (4.4%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.5%); Manufacturing (2.2 %); and Education & Health Services (1.8%). • Housing starts will continue to climb slightly higher in 2012 and begin to accelerate in 2013. Total starts will be just over 126,000 in 2014 and over 162,000 in 2015, the highest level since 2006. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand just 1.3% in 2011, and then accelerate to 1.9% in 2012, 2.4% in 2013, and 3.4% in 2014 and 2015. • Real personal income growth will accelerate in 2012 to 2.4%. From 2013-2015, real personal income growth will average 3.2%, and will peak at 3.5% in 2014. • Florida’s population growth will gradually pick up in 2012. By 2015, the growth rate should hit 1.7% as the economy grows and net migration is boosted by Baby Boomers’ retirements. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.9% during 2012-2014 after growing in 2011 at the fastest rate since 2005.

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F l o r id a Summ a r y

Flor ida’s H o u s i n g M a r k e t Data recently released by Florida Realtors show signs of a housing market that continues to seek firmer footing. Median sales prices for single-family homes increased 7.2% in February year over year and stand at $134,000. For the beleaguered townhome/ condominium market, the median sales price increased by 15.9% year over year and came in at $95,000 in February.

yet. As we progress through 2012 and into 2013 we expect an upgrade in the condition of both. The housing and labor markets were in critical states at the low point of this crisis and recession and as a result, we should not be surprised the recovery is taking so long. Instead of lamenting the distance we still have to travel, perhaps we should be glad that the journey is clearly underway.

Pending sales of single-family homes were up 36.1% in February 2012 over the previous year, while townhome/condominium pending sales jumped 19.8%. Closed sales were down 4.8% year over year for single-family homes in the same month and down 16.0% for townhomes/condominiums. The recent surge in the number of pending sales likely reflects the settlement of the robo-signing lawsuit filed against major mortgage banks that paved the way for more distressed properties to come to market and a willingness of banks to consider short sales. Whether or not the surge in pending sales translates fully into closed sales in the next few months is something that bears watching.

Outlook for Flo rida 201 2- 201 5

Inventories of both single-family homes and townhomes and condominiums have been steadily dropping over the past 12 months. In March of 2011 there were 172,555 single family properties available and as of February 2012 that number had fallen to 117,031, more than a 32% decline in inventories over the year. Condominiums also saw a sharp decline in inventories with March 2011 levels at 96,949 declining to 62,079 as of February of this year. This represents a nearly 36% decline in inventories in a market that had inventories in excess of 100,000 from 2008 through 2010 and was at the epicenter of speculation during the housing boom.

The pace of the US economic recovery in the first half of 2011 was worryingly slow as first quarter real GDP growth decelerated to just 0.4% from the 2.3% in the 4th quarter of 2010. The 2nd quarter was a slight improvement over the first, but growth was still tepid at 1.3%.

We have previously described Florida’s housing and labor markets as the Siamese twins of the economy. The implication is that the well-being of each of these markets directly influences the well-being of the other. We are seeing small signs of improvement in both of the “twins,” but neither of them is healthy 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

Florida’s Economic Recovery is More Tortoise than Hare Things are moving slowly now but the future is still bright

Florida’s economic recovery began in 2010, and the first year of real Gross State Product growth was a tepid 1.4%. Unfortunately, in 2011, growth did not get better for the state. We expect that the economy expanded by just 1.3% last year. Florida’s economic performance came amidst a national recovery that was on shaky legs for the first half of 2011.

The 3rd quarter was an improvement over the first two, with growth coming in at 1.8% and as of the 2nd reading on 4th quarter GDP growth, the economy expanded at a healthier 3.0% clip. Momentum into the 1st half of 2012 should keep GDP growth around 2.0%. The lingering problems with consumers’ balance sheets and the housing market’s ongoing struggle to return to normalcy will once again weigh on real GDP growth. The lasting impact of lost wealth will be responsible for keeping economic growth to just 2.1% on average in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2012. In Florida the wealth effects from falling home prices have been staggering and


F l o r id a Summ a r y

continue to weigh on the shoulders of Floridians. Consumer spending should continue to show some boost from pent-up demand in 2012, although the rising prices of oil and gasoline are a real risk to consumer spending. How high prices go and how long they remain there will ultimately determine the magnitude of the drag that higher energy prices have on consumer spending and the economic recovery. 2011 was anticipated to be a stronger follow up to the weak economic growth Florida experienced in 2010, the first year of our state’s economic recovery. Instead of a year of gaining momentum, 2011 turned out to be another year of subpar growth. Florida’s economic future remains bright and economic growth will accelerate in the future. There is definitely a brighter day ahead for the Sunshine State. Unfortunately, 2012 will not be the dawn of that day as the year is shaping up to be another year of subpar growth. Growth, to be sure, will continue and 2012 will be an improvement over a largely disappointing 2011, but economic growth for the year will sub 2.0% and payrolls will expand by just 1.9%. Florida’s economic growth will accelerate into 2013 and 2014, eventually helping the labor market to build momentum in its recovery, and even the beleaguered construction sector will begin to see job growth by 2013. The only sector expected to consistently lose jobs through 2015 is the federal government. Fiscal austerity has, after a long absence, returned to the center ring of our political circus and the massive deficits and national debt will force difficult, but necessary cuts to federal government spending and thus employment. The labor market’s recovery will boost retail sales and more discretionary spending in general will help to ease budget crunches in Tallahassee and allow for more strategic investments in Florida’s economy. As we have discussed in previous Florida forecasts, the

housing market’s recovery benefits from that of the labor market. There continues to be a reason to be optimistic about Florida’s economic recovery. Although the recovery has been moving at the speed of a tortoise rather than that of a hare, we all know who wins the race in the end. Florida’s economy will eventually merit the blue ribbon rather than the participation ribbon our economy has warranted thus far in its recovery.

Gross State P ro duct Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, shifted from contraction in 2008 and 2009 to expansion in 2010 as the recession lost its grip on the state. Growth was modest that year and became even more so in 2011 with full year growth expected to come in at just 1.3%. To put that growth in perspective, in 20032005 Real GSP grew at an average rate of 5.3% with 2005 being the peak year for growth as the economy then grew at a torrid pace of 6.1%. In 2013, confidence and a burgeoning labor market recovery will both be back in place allowing for more robust growth of 2.4% and finally back to some Florida-like growth in 2014 and 2015 when Real GSP is expected to grow 3.4% in both years. The burden of lost wealth Florida’s consumers have to overcome in most cases is substantially higher than consumers in most states around the nation and housing prices, in our minds, have not definitively reached a bottom. The destruction of wealth that these price declines encapsulate has left a large crater on the balance sheet of Florida’s households. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly and labor markets will improve, and housing prices should finally stabilize. Stable housing prices will finally end this long period of wealth exsanguination endured by Florida.

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F l o r id a Summ a r y

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach $912 billion in 2015, as Florida progresses toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will cross that threshold five years from now in 2017. Florida is one of the largest economies in the world and will grow larger in the years ahead. Demographics, specifically domestic and international migration, will continue to fuel this growth. International trade, tourism and life sciences, and ongoing efforts to diversify the state’s economic base will help power the economy forward in the years and decades to come.

P ers ona l I n co m e , R e ta i l Sal e s , an d Auto Sa l e s Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter decelerated in the second half of 2011 in Florida and growth is expected to stabilize in the 1st half of 2012 before beginning to accelerate in the second half of the year. Year-over-year growth will be higher through 2011, lose a bit of momentum in 2012, and then personal income growth accelerates in 2013 with growth of 4.1% and picks up more steam in 2014 when it is expected to grow 5.2% before easing slightly in 2015 to 5.1%. Personal income growth will lag that of the nation as a whole through 2011. In 2012, the positions reverse, and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.5% higher than the nation through 2015. 2012 will be the first year since 2006 that personal income growth in Florida has been higher than the national rate. Personal income will reach nearly $901 billion in 2015 - a year that will boast personal income growth of $43.9 billion. Real disposable income growth, weighed down by the struggling economy, increased to just 1.5% in 2010, but this was the first acceleration of growth since 2006. This growth of real disposable income should persist through the next two years. In 2011, growth should come in at 1.0% and rise to 1.8% in 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

2012. Average growth during 2013-2015 will be 2.8%. Increasing tax burdens at the federal level will be a drag on disposable income over the forecast horizon as we struggle to rein in massive federal budget deficits; spending cuts alone will not solve the deficit problem. The stock market has made a strong recovery from the low point of the financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in the first week of March in 2009, but since then has climbed back up to the 13,000 level. However, this level is still not back to pre-crisis highs of over 14,000. The housing market in Florida has made no such comeback and housing prices still seem to be struggling to find a solid bottom. This lost home equity could take decades to recover. In Florida, this negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending for many years to come. Florida’s persistently high unemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation begins, it will further boost consumer confidence and spending. New hiring and a feeling of job security for those who have remained employed will raise consumer spending. The improved sentiment will help to unlock some of the pent-up consumer spending that stemmed from employment insecurity. High oil and gasoline prices have returned and Florida’s consumers and economy will feel the pinch at the pump. How high prices go and how long they remain at the elevated levels will determine the extent of the impact. If this is a transitory surge fed by uncertainty in the Middle East surrounding the Iranian nuclear program, the economic consequences will be limited. If however, high prices are going to stick around through the summer driving season and beyond, the drag on economic and job growth will be greater. If hostilities break out and supply is interrupted, the resultant price spike could prove to be a dagger in the heart of both national and Florida recoveries.


F l o r id a Summ a r y

Retail sales in Florida will grow at 5.6% in 2012, in part due to higher gasoline expenditures because of rising prices, but also owing to the venting of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers and visitors. Once the labor market has fully ramped up, retail spending will begin to recover across a broader array of sectors in the economy. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 4.7% during the 20132015 horizon. Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, the steady improvement should help to alleviate the budget constraints in Tallahassee. As the economy continues to recover, consumers’ pent-up demand for automobiles and light trucks continues to be released. Replacement need and a sense of steadiness in the economy are driving this demand. 2010 was the start of a multi-year rise in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during 2012-2015, averaging nearly 12.2%. In 2015, registrations will reach 1.41 million, representing an increase of over 711,000 registrations from the 2009 nadir, but still not higher than the level of registrations during the height of the housing boom (1.449 million in 2005). That number of registrations will be surpassed in 2016.

Emp loym e n t Overall average payroll employment in the state fell for the third year in a row in 2010. From peak month to trough month Florida shed 920,000 payroll jobs. Payroll job growth finally took root in 2011. Job growth was tepid in the first half of the year, but has gained some momentum in the second half. Full year job growth for 2011 averaged 1.1%. In 2012 job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at a positive 1.4%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida matches the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will

reach 2.3% in 2015 as it gradually accelerates to that point. The long-suffering Construction sector still has another year of job losses before it finally joins in the labor market’s recovery. The sector has been losing jobs in a dramatic manner after peaking during the housing boom; it will be six straight years of job losses and 2013 before the turn around in the construction sector gets underway. Job growth will return to the Construction sector in the 1st quarter of 2013; this will be the caboose as far as the private sector jobs train is concerned. Job growth rates are expected to surge from -3.6% in 2012 to 3.6% in 2013, 13.2% in 2014 and 15.5% in 2015. The 2015 growth rate appears large but is calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2015, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously surpassed in 1997, 18 years earlier. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s fastest growing sector through 2015. Job growth in this sector is expected to lead the state, averaging 4.4% during 2012-2015. Job gains here were modest initially, but are expected to accelerate. For the full year, 2012 will turn in job growth at 2.5% and will accelerate and reach 3.5% in 2013, and 5.5% in both 2014 and 2015. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014. The Information sector shed jobs in 2011 and will continue to do so through the third quarter of 2012. Late last year the Tampa Tribune announced layoffs of 165 employees. Structural changes in this industry haunt this sector as technology has evolved and news comes in the form of 140 character tweets (not exactly a good medium for investigative journalism) and blog posts (thus, anyone with a keyboard can be a “journalist”) rather than newsprint. Other sources of growth within in this sector will eventually help compensate. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r id a Summ a r y

Job growth should return to the Information sector year-over-year in 2013 and this will be just the second year of job growth in this sector in thirteen prior years, including seven straight years of net job losses leading up to 2013. Job growth will jump to 3.4% in 2013, but will average just 1.5% in 20142015. The one sector that has generated jobs throughout the recession and is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2015 is the Health and Education sector. During 2012-2015, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.8%. Budget woes will likely constrain employment levels in the education side of the sector as schools face significant revenue constraints due to the housing sector’s ongoing malaise and its impact on property tax based revenue. Recent court rulings and a pending Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of the individual mandate obscure the future of the healthcare sector. It is still uncertain as to precisely how politics and the legal system will ultimately affect healthcare in Florida. Federal and state budget battles will continue to put Medicare and Medicaid expenditures in the spotlight. The focus will necessarily be on gaining efficiency and controlling the cost of delivering these services. However, with some momentum toward expanding coverage and our aging population, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the near future. This demand will continue to drive job growth in this sector. Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida through 2011. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of globalization as lean and mean as it has been in many years. This improved competitiveness, a weakened dollar, especially against emerging market currencies, and strong expansions in these same emerging

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Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

economies will help drive job growth as exports should continue to rise. We are expecting to see job growth of 2.4% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by a stronger year of job growth in 2013, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.6%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to gain jobs in 2014 and 2015 when job growth is expected to average 1.9%. The beleaguered government sector has been set upon by budget crunches that run from Tallahassee to Minneola, as well as many in politics and the public at large who think the only good government worker is a laid off government worker. Job losses will persist in the sector through 2012 when growth will be -1.3%. From that point growth will turn positive and average 0.4% during 2013-2015.

Une mp loyme nt Unemployment rates in Florida remain elevated, but the benchmarking process revealed that unemployment was not as high as the original data suggested. The preliminary data showed that Florida’s unemployment rate peaked at 12.1%, but after the benchmarking process, the peak unemployment rate was 11.4% Real Gross State Product has been growing continuously since the 1st quarter of 2010, but only at an average growth rate of just 1.3%, and as a result, the unemployment rate has only declined gradually. As of February, the unemployment rate in Florida stood at 9.4% for a 2% decline over the span of a little more than two years. Tepid growth will only chip away at the unemployment rate as it takes robust growth to ratchet the unemployment rate down, the type of growth that Florida will not see for at least another year and a half. The labor market cycle lags the business cycle overall, but the weak nature of this particular


F l o r id a Summ a r y

recovery and the uncertainty that seems to permeate the economy from healthcare reform to the European debt crisis have exaggerated this jobless recovery. However, as payroll job growth finally gains momentum, it will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search during this business cycle. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet fully manifested itself, will make reduction in the unemployment rate a more difficult and protracted process. When the discouraged workers become encouraged to re-enter the job-hunt, this will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is expected to continue a slow, drawn-out decline that will push it down to 7.8% by the end of 2015. This problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers– those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months— and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial. Also, as just noted, it is a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top-level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 17.6% for all of 2011 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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on & Health ployment

ds)

April 2012

Ta b l e s

09 10 11 12 13 14 15

F l o r id a F ORE C AS T


F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

2014

2015

690.3

721.1

740.3

Personal Income and GSP 697.4 720.2 754.0 783.1

815.0

857.1

901.0

Florida (%Ch)

9.0

4.5

2.7

-5.8

3.3

4.7

3.9

4.1

5.2

5.1

U.S.(%Ch)

7.5

5.7

4.6

-4.2

3.7

4.8

3.4

3.7

4.7

4.5

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

671.9

683.5

679.6

638.9

648.2

662.4

678.2

695.9

720.1

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

6.1 7.6 598.6

1.7 -4.6 609.0

-0.6 -0.6 616.8

-6.0 -13.7 589.9

1.5 9.2 598.6

2.2 6.0 604.4

2.4 4.3 615.3

2.6 5.0 625.9

3.5 7.0 646.7

744.8 3.4 6.4 667.6 3.2

Personal Income (Bil. $)

2010

2011

Florida (%Ch)

6.1

1.7

1.3

-4.4

1.5

1.0

1.8

1.7

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

2.4

2.4

-2.3

1.8

0.9

1.3

1.4

2.9

2.6

730.2 7.4 706.6

759.6 4.0 714.0

747.8 -1.5 689.9

732.8 -2.0 664.1

747.7 2.0 673.4

766.0 2.4 681.9

791.5 3.3 695.1

822.0 3.8 712.0

865.4 5.3 736.2

912.0 5.4 761.2

(%Ch)

3.9

1.1

-3.4

-3.7

1.4

1.3

1.9

2.4

3.4

3.4

Employment Labor Force

3.3 2.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 3.0 -2.2 -6.0 -0.3 2.2 2.8 1.3 1.6 3.7 0.2 -1.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.0

2.1 1.3

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.3 4.6

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)

4.0 4.6

6.3 5.8

10.4 9.3

11.3 9.6

10.5 9.0

9.4 8.4

9.3 8.3

8.8 7.8

8.0 7.2

1.6 2.2 -1.8 13.2

1.6 2.3 -2.2 15.5

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.1 0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-4.5

0.8

2.4

2.6

2.1

1.6

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

-2.0 1.4 1.4 2.9 2.0

-1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 1.3

-6.2 -7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9

-10.0 -14.0 -6.7 -8.0 -6.6

-3.6 -4.9 -2.0 -2.9 0.2

0.2 1.1 2.8 0.0 2.4

0.3 3.5 3.5 2.1 2.2

-0.3 4.0 3.6 3.0 1.7

-0.8 3.4 3.3 2.5 0.5

-0.8 2.7 3.2 2.6 0.8

Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

3.1 4.4 2.7 1.5 -0.9

-1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3

-4.6 -6.3 2.1 -1.4 -3.4

-7.4 -8.2 1.2 -4.5 -8.6

-1.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 -4.6

1.4 3.6 2.3 2.3 -1.2

1.2 2.5 2.3 3.0 -0.9

1.4 3.5 1.3 2.0 3.4

0.6 5.5 1.7 0.3 1.0

0.7 5.5 1.8 -0.6 2.1

Federal Gov't.

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.2

7.2

-5.5

-1.8

-2.5

-2.4

-1.5

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.7

-1.3

0.1

0.6

0.7

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous)

1.1 0.3 1.6 -8.7

-0.6 -3.5 -7.8 -17.2

-4.4 -6.3 -11.5 -23.1

-0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -11.3

1.2 1.1 4.0 -5.8

1.4 1.4 -1.8 -3.6

1.4 1.9 0.8 3.6

Population and Migration 18,184.1 18,385.1 18,540.8 18,682.0 18,870.3 19,084.9 19,316.1 19,577.6 19,877.4 20,209.2

(%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

1.7 193.2 -40.5

1.1 117.7 -34.6

0.8 84.2 -29.1

0.8 107.6 43.7

1.0 154.7 58.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

203.2 156.2 47.1

101.5 75.2 26.3

61.6 40.9 20.7

33.7 26.8 6.9

38.2 31.7 6.4

4.1

3.4

4.2

-0.2

1.1 177.2 18.7

1.2 194.3 9.7

1.4 220.6 13.5

1.5 253.5 15.0

1.7 274.3 8.3

58.3 39.5 18.9

84.0 58.1 25.9

126.3 92.0 34.4

162.1 118.7 43.4

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.8

Housing 43.3 32.4 10.9

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

1.3

3.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

787.4 4.3 3.8

795.8 4.2 4.1

802.7 4.2 3.8

810.8 4.1 3.7

818.7 4.0 3.7

Personal Income and GSP 827.7 841.3 851.4 862.6 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.4 3.7 4.4 4.6 4.8

873.2 5.5 4.9

885.2 5.2 4.6

895.5 5.2 4.6

906.1 5.0 4.4

917.3 5.0 4.3

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

680.8 3.1 4.5 0.6 2.4

685.4 2.8 4.7 0.6 2.4

688.7 2.7 4.8 0.6 1.9

694.2 2.6 4.6 0.6 1.6

697.9 2.5 5.0 0.6 1.6

702.8 2.5 5.6 0.6 1.9

711.2 3.3 6.2 0.6 2.8

716.7 3.2 7.0 0.6 3.2

723.3 3.6 7.3 0.6 3.7

729.3 3.8 7.5 0.7 3.8

736.2 3.5 7.3 0.7 3.3

741.7 3.5 6.7 0.7 3.3

747.4 3.3 6.2 0.7 3.2

753.6 3.3 5.3 0.7 3.1

U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $)

2.3 794.0

2.1 801.4

1.1 809.3

0.9 816.4

1.0 825.7

1.4 836.6

2.2 847.9

2.7 859.2

3.1 870.9

(%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

3.1 696.0 2.1

3.1 700.2 1.9

3.4 704.3 2.0

3.6 708.9 2.2

4.0 714.2 2.6

4.4 720.5 2.9

4.8 726.4 3.1

5.2 732.7 3.4

5.5 739.2 3.5

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

2.9 1.7 9.4

2.3 1.5 9.4

1.3 1.4 9.4

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

8.4

8.3

8.3

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida(%Ch)

3.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.8

883.5 5.6 746.4 3.6

895.3 5.6 752.5 3.6

906.3 5.5 758.2 3.5

917.6 5.4 764.2 3.4

928.8 5.1 769.9 3.1

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3

2.1 1.2 8.1

2.2 1.4 8.0

2.2 1.4 7.8

7.2

7.1

7.0

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.0

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.3

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5 -0.9 -1.8 2.7 0.8

1.5 0.2 -2.0 2.9 0.3

1.8 1.6 0.5 2.6 0.1

1.9 1.2 2.2 2.7 -0.2

2.0 0.5 4.4 2.7 -0.4

2.0 -0.1 7.4 2.4 -0.7

2.0 -1.1 10.4 2.2 -0.7

2.1 -1.8 12.6 1.9 -0.9

2.3 -2.1 14.4 2.0 -0.9

2.3 -2.2 15.6 2.1 -0.8

2.4 -2.2 16.2 2.1 -0.8

2.3 -2.2 16.1 1.9 -0.8

2.3 -2.3 15.5 1.5 -0.8

2.3 -2.2 14.1 1.1

3.7 4.3 2.2 1.8 1.4

4.2 3.9 2.8 1.6 1.1

3.9 3.6 2.8 1.7 1.3

4.1 3.7 3.0 2.0 1.5

4.2 3.6 3.2 1.9 1.5

3.9 3.7 2.9 1.2 1.2

3.6 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.7

3.2 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.5

3.4 3.2 2.3 0.4 0.5

3.5 3.1 2.5 0.4 0.6

3.4 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.7

3.1 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.8

2.5 3.1 2.6 0.8 0.8

2.0 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.6

2.6 2.0 3.0 -0.8

2.3 1.6 3.5 0.1

3.2 1.5 2.9 0.9

3.0 1.4 2.4 3.0

3.5 1.2 1.6 4.9

4.0 1.1 1.2 4.8

4.4 1.6 0.9 3.5

5.1 1.8 0.5 1.2

6.0 1.8 0.1 -0.5

6.4 1.8 -0.3 -0.1

6.3 1.5 -0.6 1.4

5.8 1.6 -0.7 2.3

5.2 2.0 -0.7 2.5

4.7 2.2 -0.5 2.2

-0.8

Federal Gov't.

-2.4

-2.4

-2.5

-2.5

-2.5

-2.5

-2.5

-2.5

-2.3

-2.2

-1.9

-1.6

-1.4

-1.1

State & Local Gov't.

-0.8

-1.2

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19,345.9 19,408.7 19,473.9 19,541.5 19,611.2 19,683.6 19,758.5 19,836.2 19,916.5 19,998.6 20,081.8 20,166.1 20,251.4 20,337.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

49.2 11.0

50.4 14.4

52.3 11.8

54.2 13.0

56.0 13.8

58.1 15.3

60.2 15.2

62.5 15.2

64.7 15.6

66.2 13.9

67.3 11.7

68.3 9.3

69.1 6.8

69.7 5.3

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

60.6

63.4

68.7

77.1

90.3

99.7

Housing 109.5 120.5

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

39.2 21.4

40.8 22.5

45.1 23.6

52.2 24.9

63.5 26.8

71.4 28.3

1.3

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

(%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

132.8

142.6

151.6

159.8

166.3

170.6

87.4 33.1

97.4 35.4

104.4 38.1

110.9 40.7

117.1 42.6

122.0 44.3

124.6 45.9

Consumer Prices 1.8 2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

78.6 31.0


F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,384.4 7,425.3 7,461.9 7,494.7 7,529.4 7,570.8 7,612.8 7,655.2 7,699.2 7,747.9 7,792.1 7,833.9 7,877.6 7,922.9

Manufacturing

319.7

322.2

324.2

326.7

328.2

329.8

331.2

332.9

335.0

336.8

338.1

339.2

339.9

340.6

Durable Goods

213.7

216.2

218.3

221.0

222.7

224.5

226.1

228.1

230.3

232.4

233.8

235.2

236.1

237.0

Wood Products

9.3

9.7

9.9

10.1

10.3

10.6

10.9

11.2

11.7

12.1

12.4

12.6

12.8

13.0

Computer & Electronics

43.2

43.4

44.3

44.7

44.6

44.4

44.1

44.1

44.3

44.4

44.4

44.4

44.3

44.2

Transportation Equipment

35.8

36.4

36.9

37.6

38.0

38.4

38.7

39.0

39.3

39.5

39.5

39.5

39.5

39.5

106.0

106.0

105.9

105.7

105.5

105.3

105.1

104.8

104.6

104.4

104.3

104.0

103.8

103.6

29.0

29.0

29.1

29.1

29.2

29.3

29.3

29.3

29.4

29.4

29.4

29.3

29.3

29.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,064.7 7,103.1 7,137.7 7,168.0 7,201.1 7,241.0 7,281.6 7,322.2 7,364.3 7,411.1 7,454.0 7,494.7 7,537.7 7,582.3 5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

Construction

318.0

318.2

320.0

325.0

331.9

341.8

353.3

366.1

379.6

395.0

410.4

424.9

438.4

450.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

240.2

242.2

244.4

246.6

248.9

251.1

253.0

255.1

256.9

258.9

261.1

263.1

265.0

267.1

Wholesale Trade

326.7

330.2

332.3

335.0

338.1

340.1

342.1

344.2

346.1

348.0

349.9

351.1

352.3

353.8

Retail Trade

977.2

985.6

989.4

991.5

995.6

997.7

996.9

997.6

999.2 1,001.5 1,002.3 1,004.3 1,007.5 1,011.9

Information

132.6

133.0

134.2

136.9

139.1

139.4

138.9

138.5

138.5

Prof. & Bus. Services

139.2

140.9

141.6

141.9

142.2

1,081.6 1,090.7 1,101.7 1,110.7 1,119.9 1,134.4 1,149.7 1,167.8 1,187.2 1,206.7 1,222.0 1,235.4 1,249.2 1,263.4

Admin. & Support

542.0

549.4

556.7

562.3

567.4

576.1

588.5

601.8

616.7

631.1

644.2

654.1

664.9

676.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

457.8

459.6

463.4

466.8

470.9

476.7

479.4

484.2

488.5

493.5

495.7

499.2

502.0

504.8

81.7

81.7

81.7

81.6

81.6

81.6

81.8

81.9

82.0

82.1

82.1

82.2

82.3

82.3

Financial Activities

489.0

491.1

493.6

494.9

496.2

496.9

497.1

497.6

498.7

499.8

500.5

501.5

502.8

502.8

Real Estate & Rent

155.0

155.9

156.5

157.1

157.9

158.6

159.3

160.1

161.0

161.8

162.4

162.9

163.6

164.0

Fin. & Insurance

333.9

335.2

337.1

337.8

338.3

338.3

337.8

337.5

337.7

337.9

338.2

338.6

339.2

338.8

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,132.7 1,138.4 1,140.9 1,144.3 1,146.8 1,151.0 1,159.2 1,164.4 1,167.3 1,172.1 1,176.5 1,183.2 1,190.5 1,198.2

Education Services

156.2

155.7

155.6

155.2

154.7

154.2

Health Services

976.5

982.7

985.3

989.1

992.1

996.8 1,005.6 1,011.4 1,014.8 1,020.2 1,024.5 1,031.4 1,038.9 1,046.8

Leisure & Hospitality

985.0

991.6

997.0

999.7 1,001.0 1,003.6 1,005.6 1,004.4 1,002.4 1,000.7 1,000.0

997.5

995.9

995.9

Other Services

307.4

308.7

310.1

310.4

312.3

312.0

311.7

Government

311.1

311.9

153.6

312.5

153.0

313.0

152.5

313.4

152.0

312.8

152.0

312.6

151.8

151.6

151.4

1,080.0 1,079.5 1,079.6 1,079.0 1,079.2 1,080.0 1,080.4 1,081.1 1,082.2 1,083.2 1,084.3 1,085.6 1,087.3 1,088.8

Federal Gov't.

131.0

130.2

129.4

128.5

127.7

126.9

126.1

125.4

124.7

124.1

123.7

123.3

123.0

122.7

State & Local Gov't

949.0

949.3

950.2

950.5

951.5

953.1

954.3

955.7

957.4

959.1

960.6

962.3

964.2

966.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

7,374.8

7,514.2

7,678.8

7,856.6

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,994.9

8,019.7

7,736.1

7,249.3

Manufacturing

416.5

399.1

371.1

323.9

309.0

311.5

319.0

327.2

334.0

339.4

Durable Goods

284.7

269.3

249.3

214.4

203.6

205.8

213.1

221.6

229.2

235.5

Wood Products

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.7

9.2

10.2

11.5

12.7

Computer & Electronics

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.6

42.9

43.1

43.3

44.5

44.2

44.4

Transportation Equipment

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.5

37.7

39.1

39.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

105.6

105.9

105.6

104.7

103.9

31.4

31.7

29.7

27.9

27.5

28.7

28.9

29.2

29.3

29.3

7,578.4

7,620.7

7,365.0

6,925.4

6,883.9

6,962.8

7,055.8

7,187.0

7,344.8

7,517.2

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.7

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.4

Construction

682.1

622.8

515.8

396.6

350.7

330.2

318.2

329.7

373.5

431.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

250.9

251.1

245.9

229.4

224.7

230.9

239.0

247.8

256.0

264.1

Wholesale Trade

351.3

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

351.8

1,013.8

1,027.0

997.4

931.6

933.8

956.4

977.0

993.5

998.8

1,006.5

161.8

161.3

155.8

142.4

135.7

134.0

132.9

137.4

138.8

141.7

1,158.4

1,166.1

1,092.8

1,002.6

1,015.7

1,052.6

1,079.4

1,116.7

1,177.9

1,242.5

Admin. & Support

627.4

624.7

553.5

491.8

504.6

526.0

540.5

565.6

609.5

659.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

451.6

460.3

456.5

430.9

432.1

445.4

457.1

469.5

486.4

500.4

79.3

81.0

82.8

79.9

79.1

81.2

81.7

81.6

82.0

82.2

Financial Activities

554.8

549.2

524.1

485.4

476.1

482.9

488.7

495.4

498.3

501.9

Real Estate & Rent

182.5

178.1

169.9

154.9

150.3

151.8

154.5

157.5

160.6

163.2

Fin. & Insurance

372.2

371.1

354.2

330.5

325.8

331.1

334.2

337.9

337.7

338.7

Edu. & Health Service

996.4

1,027.1

1,048.5

1,061.1

1,081.1

1,105.9

1,130.7

1,145.8

1,165.8

1,187.1

Education Services

129.9

135.7

139.6

144.6

151.5

154.1

156.6

154.9

152.8

151.7

Health Services

866.5

891.4

908.9

916.5

929.6

951.8

974.2

990.8

1,013.0

1,035.4

Leisure & Hospitality

964.9

983.9

970.5

926.6

931.0

952.3

980.5

1,000.3

1,003.3

997.3

Other Services

338.1

345.7

335.6

312.5

309.2

306.4

307.0

310.9

312.9

312.1

1,099.4

1,123.2

1,126.9

1,113.9

1,111.7

1,096.9

1,081.9

1,079.5

1,081.7

1,086.5

Federal Gov't.

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.6

142.2

133.8

131.4

128.1

125.1

123.2

State & Local Gov't

971.6

995.2

997.1

981.3

969.5

963.1

950.5

951.3

956.6

963.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

7,192.9 7274.221


F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

787.4

795.8

802.7

810.8

818.7

827.7

841.3

851.4

862.6

873.2

885.2

895.5

906.1

917.3

Wages & Salaries

353.3

357.3

361.4

365.1

369.0

373.4

378.2

382.9

387.8

393.1

398.3

403.3

408.4

413.4

Other Labor Income

80.2

81.2

82.4

83.4

84.3

85.5

87.0

88.4

89.6

91.1

92.6

94.1

95.7

97.3

Nonfarm

45.0

45.6

46.1

46.7

47.4

48.3

49.2

50.2

51.1

52.1

53.0

53.9

54.6

55.3

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Farm Property Income

197.2

199.4

200.9

202.1

203.3

204.9

206.9

209.2

212.6

215.0

217.6

219.9

222.4

225.5

Transfer Payments

158.0

159.2

160.9

162.9

164.5

166.0

172.4

173.9

175.3

176.6

182.2

183.5

184.9

186.5

49.0

49.6

51.8

52.4

52.8

53.5

55.5

56.4

57.0

57.9

61.7

62.5

63.2

64.1

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

680.8

685.4

688.7

694.2

697.9

702.8

711.2

716.7

723.3

729.3

736.2

741.7

747.4

753.6

Wages & Salaries

305.5

307.7

310.0

312.6

314.5

317.0

319.7

322.3

325.2

328.3

331.3

334.1

336.9

339.7

Other Labor Income

69.4

69.9

70.7

71.4

71.9

72.6

73.6

74.4

75.2

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

80.0

Nonfarm

38.9

39.3

39.5

40.0

40.4

41.0

41.6

42.3

42.9

43.5

44.0

44.7

45.1

45.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Farm Property Income

170.5

171.7

172.4

173.0

173.3

174.0

174.9

176.1

178.3

179.6

181.0

182.1

183.5

185.3

Transfer Payments

136.6

137.1

138.0

139.5

140.2

141.0

145.8

146.4

147.0

147.5

151.5

152.0

152.5

153.2

42.3

42.7

44.4

44.8

45.0

45.4

46.9

47.5

47.8

48.3

51.3

51.7

52.1

52.7

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1028.29 1106.10 1150.04 1197.44 1233.29 1247.05 1274.81 1306.03 1348.02 1373.80 1382.48 1400.12 1413.09 1429.03 Retail Sales (Billions $)

281.9

285.9

288.9

291.1

294.9

297.9

301.3

304.6

308.4

312.4

315.5

319.3

323.0

327.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

243.7

246.3

247.8

249.2

251.4

252.9

254.7

256.4

258.6

260.9

262.4

264.5

266.5

268.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

690.3

721.1

740.3

697.4

720.2

754.0

783.1

815.0

857.1

901.0

Wages & Salaries

333.1

344.7

339.8

322.4

325.6

337.3

351.7

367.2

385.5

405.9

Other Labor Income

72.9

73.1

74.4

74.0

75.0

77.0

80.1

83.9

89.0

95.0

Nonfarm

45.1

43.7

41.0

37.3

41.0

42.8

44.7

47.1

50.7

54.2

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.0

Property Income

181.7

196.5

210.9

172.2

176.7

187.0

195.5

202.8

210.9

221.4

Transfer Payments

104.4

111.2

122.5

138.1

149.1

153.8

157.2

163.6

174.6

184.3

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.2

50.1

46.3

48.7

52.6

56.7

62.9

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income

671.9

683.5

679.6

638.9

648.2

662.4

678.2

695.9

720.1

744.8

Wages & Salaries

324.3

326.7

311.9

295.3

293.1

296.3

304.6

313.5

323.9

335.5

Other Labor Income

71.0

69.3

68.3

67.8

67.5

67.6

69.3

71.7

74.8

78.5

Nonfarm

43.9

41.4

37.6

34.2

36.9

37.6

38.7

40.3

42.6

44.8

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

Property Income

176.8

186.3

193.6

157.7

159.0

164.3

169.3

173.2

177.2

183.0

Transfer Payments

101.6

105.4

112.4

126.5

134.2

135.1

136.2

139.7

146.7

152.3

48.6

48.3

46.6

45.1

45.1

40.6

42.2

44.9

47.6

52.0

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

694.77

848.74

Farm

Social Insurance

900.99 1000.20 1206.96 1325.67 1406.18

Retail Sales (Billions $)

257.6

262.3

255.4

232.6

246.7

265.3

280.1

293.2

306.7

321.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

250.8

248.7

234.4

213.1

222.0

233.0

242.6

250.4

257.7

265.5

18

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1% -1% -4% -6% -8%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

22

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

9%

250.0

8%

200.0

7%

150.0

6%

100.0

5%

50.0

4%

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3%

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

26

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


F l o r id a N e w s Summ a r i e s State to close prisons, cut jobs • Seven prisons and four work camps in the State of Florida will be closed this year. The Department of Corrections’ budget is being reduced by $90 million, costing 1,300 jobs. • Opponents to the cuts argued that the small communities in which the prisons are located will have their economies deeply impacted by the job losses. • Part of the impetus for the change is a lower crime rate and fewer prison admissions: by October, the state will have 116,000 beds, but only 100,000 prison admissions are projected through 2016. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 13, 2012

USDA to help thousands of rural homeowners • The Department of Agriculture is announcing a pilot program for homeowners to save money if they have a direct or USDA-guaranteed loan. • Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack visited Orlando to discuss the plan, which aims to help rural homeowners who are underwater refinance their loans with lower interest rates. • The program’s goal is to facilitate the normally bureaucratic process of refinancing and save homeowners hundreds of dollars a month. Source: St. Augustine Record, February 24, 2012

Group appeals Progress Energy proposal • The Southern Alliance for Clean Energy is appealing $282 million in fees that are being charged to customers of Florida Power Co. and Progress Energy. • The $282 million covers the costs of constructing new nuclear power plants, as well as other preliminary expenses. • The group alleges that the fee increases amounts to a “tax” on energy.

Strawberry growers struggle • A large spike in the supply of strawberries has driven down prices for the fruit, causing Florida farmers to struggle to sell their produce and break even. • The supply shock comes from an increase in production due to unseasonably warm weather as well as increased competition from Mexico. • Mexico’s strawberry production increased from 77 million pounds from 2010-11 to 97.3 million pounds from mid-November through February 18th of this year.

Source: Ocala.com, January 24, 2012

Source: St. Augustine Record, February 27, 2012

Florida homeowners to receive $8.4 billion in mortgage relief in landmark settlement • $8.4 billion in relief will be given to Florida homeowners. The package comes as part of a $25 billion settlement between federal and state governments and the country’s five largest banks. • The money will be distributed through a combination of loan modifications, cash payments to Floridians who suffered “service abuse” and had their homes foreclosed on, refinancing, and payments to the State for consumer protection. • The settlement will be executed over the course of the next three years.

How worker’s compensation fared in the 2012 Florida Legislature • Of the major issues regarding worker’s compensation discussed in the legislature, provisions were passed related to excess profits and check cashing firms, but lawmakers could not agree on costs related to physiciandispensed drugs. • Lawmakers passed a repeal of a 32-year old law requiring workers’ compensation insurance to return premiums to policyholders if they are in excess of 5% of anticipated underwriting profits. • Another bill would require check cashing companies to be licensed, deposit checks into one account in its own name, and prevents use of fraudulent identification.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 10, 2012 Florida gets $119 million in health care reform funds • The State of Florida has received over $119 million dollars in funds disbursed by laws set up in the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010. • Governor Rick Scott has accepted some of the funds, but rejected others having to do with implementation of the law. His decision is based off of the fact that the constitutionality of the healthcare law is currently on appeal. • Some funds have gone directly to the Department of Health, such as for abstinence counseling and monitoring children in at-risk families. Other funds have gone to expanding nonprofit community health centers. Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 13, 2012

Source: Insurance Journal, March 15, 2012 Beach replenishment a tough issue in Florida • 59% of Florida’s beaches are experiencing erosion due to tides, storms, and development. Beaches need to have their sand replenished or they become unattractive and lose tourists. They are replenished by pumping underwater sand onto the shore and moving it to make it look natural. • Local, state, and federal entities now manage over 200 miles of restored Florida beaches, spending about $100 million annually on replenishment projects in the state. • Some beaches are protected under the federal Coastal Barrier Resources Act. This allows replenishment to be subsidized by the U.S. government; however, it can inhibit growth and development in protected areas. Source: Ocala Star Banner, March 15, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


Metros

Apr il 2 012

F l o r id a F ORE C AS T


D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.5 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.2. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at 40.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. Population growth will be second lowest among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,819.50 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 254,896 in June of 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.0% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,125 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 employees • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 employees • Halifax Health – 3,957 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,280 employees • Publix – 2,486 employees • State of Florida – 2,361 employees • Walmart – 2,160 employees • Daytona State College – 1,797 employees • U.S. Government – 1,422 employees • Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 employees Source: Volusia County Government Department of Economic Development, 2011

The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.0 percent each year. Unemployment will average 9.1 percent annually.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.8 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 5.0 percent annually. The Information sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. The only sector that will experience a decline is the Federal Government sector, at -1.8 percent.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s County to take over SE Volusia tourism

• Council members cited “serious concerns” as reasoning for the county manager taking over the Southeast Volusia Advertising Authority’s (SVAA) finances.

• SVAA collects revenues on bed taxes from local hotels and rentals. However, the finances seemed to show a lack of transparency, as some of the outflows were debatable. The County Manager took control about three months after a salary approval of new executive director of New Smyrna Beach Visitors Bureau. • New Smyrna Beach’s Community Redevelopment Area is also being inspected by the county. Council says the agency is hosting too many events, and does not have enough tangible improvement projects. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 6, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

Revised flood zones in Volusia County could cost landowners thousands • FEMA maintains the nation’s flood maps and has just recently updated Volusia County, benefitting some and costing others. Each map designates hazard areas depending on elevation maps. The county-provided maps are much more accurate than the ones given to FEMA five years ago. • Many of the cities and communities plan to appeal some of the changes. The county encourages individuals to check the status of their land. If individuals disagree with the categorization, they can contact local officials. • Homeowners with federally backed mortgages are required to obtain flood insurance, costing up to $4,000. After the 2004 hurricanes, the National Flood Insurance Program recorded 1,106 claims, costing more than $14.3 million.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 6, 2012

Volusia rail trail’s first leg ready for hikers, bikers, and more • In the future, Volusia will be home to the state’s longest trail converted from a railroad line. It started as a 5.7-mile segment. It will stretch from Volusia to Brevard County, a 50-mile path. • The $2 million cost was funded in part by federal grant money and each of the county’s ECHP program and trails fund. • It will be 12 feet wide, a perfect width for hikers, bikers, joggers, skaters, and pets. • The next portion’s construction is expected to begin in the summer. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 24, 2012

Owner’s vision for New Smyrna Beach building lacks cash • A Volusia County resident looks into refurbishing her father’s restaurant and dance hall. She, like many others, is finding difficulty in funding the project. 30

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

• Though she thought of selling it, she would like to turn the 5,000-sq. ft. site into a cultural and performing arts center, as well as first time business ventures. • This Westside Cultural Arts and Business Cooperative Center is eligible for a grant from the Community Redevelopment Agency. There is no request cap, but funds must be matched 50/50. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 26, 2012

Progress report slated on school construction needs

• The state of Florida requires an “educational plan survey” every five years. Volusia’s plan has an emphasis on renovation and remodeling projects, as opposed to last year’s plan focusing on building new schools. • Volusia County public schools grew for decades until the recession. Enrollment today is 61,636, which is 4,000 students less than the 2006 count.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 27, 2012

Homeless housing proposal draws interest of 3 Volusia councilmen • Volusia County councilmen look to grant Michael Arth, homeless housing project proposer, a hearing in front of the entire council. Five years ago, he presented his group home community, but was met with much opposition from the county’s 476 social service agencies. • Volusia-Flagler County Coalition for the Homeless must consent to all homeless efforts in the two-county area. Arth deemed the anticipated community Tiger Bay Villages. • The Villages would serve both temporary and long-term residents, and is ideal for nonviolent people that suffer from mental illness and/or substance abuse. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, March 14, 2012


D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0 9000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

1.2

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Deltona Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3

16.1 5.4 6.1 10.0

16.3 1.3 6.0 10.3

15.4 -6.0 5.6 9.7

15.9 3.6 5.7 10.2

16.7 4.8 5.9 10.8

17.3 3.9 6.2 11.2

18.0 4.0 6.4 11.6

18.9 5.1 6.7 12.2

19.9 5.1 7.1 12.8

21.0 5.7 7.5 13.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 4.4

15.3 2.7

15.0 -1.9

14.1 -6.2

14.3 1.7

14.7 2.4

15.0 2.4

15.4 2.5

15.9 3.4

16.4 3.4

17.1 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

30.9 30.1

32.4 30.7

32.9 30.2

31.0 28.4

32.2 29.0

33.7 29.6

35.0 30.3

36.2 30.9

37.5 31.5

38.8 32.1

40.2 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.0 6.1

35.3 3.8

35.8 1.5

35.6 -0.5

36.6 2.8

37.6 2.6

38.4 2.2

39.4 2.6

40.5 2.8

41.7 2.9

42.9 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

173.9 1.8

172.5 -0.8

166.9 -3.3

157.4 -5.7

154.7 -1.7

156.2 1.0

159.2 1.9

162.3 2.0

165.7 2.1

169.2 2.1

172.9 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.1

7.8 -13.9

7.4 -4.8

7.3 -1.3

7.5 1.7

7.7 3.0

7.9 2.3

8.0 1.8

8.1 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

163.3 1.6

162.2 -0.7

157.8 -2.7

149.6 -5.2

147.2 -1.5

148.8 1.1

151.7 2.0

154.7 1.9

157.8 2.0

161.2 2.2

164.8 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.3

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.7 -12.9

7.2 -6.8

6.9 -3.6

7.1 3.4

8.1 12.8

9.2 14.6

10.1 9.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 0.0

33.6 1.2

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.2

30.0 -0.4

30.1 0.3

30.6 1.7

31.3 2.3

31.7 1.2

32.3 1.7

32.9 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.0 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.9 2.4

4.9 23.2 2.1

4.7 23.4 1.9

4.7 23.5 1.9

4.8 23.7 2.0

5.0 24.1 2.0

5.1 24.2 2.1

5.3 24.5 2.2

5.5 24.8 2.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 8.3

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2.0 -10.8

1.9 -5.8

1.9 1.2

2.0 3.8

2.1 1.6

2.1 3.2

2.2 3.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 7.2

8.0 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 -0.5

7.0 -1.0

7.1 0.8

7.2 1.8

7.2 0.8

7.3 0.6

7.3 0.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 -0.9

18.0 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.5 0.2

16.8 -3.7

16.8 0.0

17.6 4.7

18.3 3.9

19.3 5.5

20.4 5.9

21.5 5.0

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.1

31.5 0.1

32.3 2.3

32.8 1.5

33.2 1.4

33.8 1.8

34.3 1.4

35.1 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21.2 -5.8

21.5 1.5

23.5 9.2

24.7 5.2

25.1 1.6

25.1 -0.2

24.9 -0.9

24.7 -0.7

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1.0

8.5 3.2

8.4 -1.0

8.4 0.0

8.6 2.5

8.8 1.8

8.8 1.0

8.9 0.2

8.9 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0.0

1.4 2.4

1.5 6.2

1.3 -16.8

1.2 -2.3

1.2 -2.1

1.2 -1.8

1.2 -0.9

1.2 -0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.5

22.2 -4.0

21.1 -5.0

20.6 -2.3

20.4 -1.3

20.3 -0.4

20.4 0.4

20.5 0.8

20.7 0.9

20.9 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13813.7

13894.3

13442.1

12876.4

12924.1

13017.4

13247.1

13558.9

14003.2

14468.8

14921.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.0 1.6

498.4 0.7

497.0 -0.3

494.8 -0.4

494.4 -0.1

494.4 0.0

495.1 0.1

498.4 0.7

504.3 1.2

512.7 1.7

523.4 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

247.2 1.8

250.7 1.4

254.2 1.4

253.3 -0.4

253.5 0.1

253.6 0.1

255.9 0.9

258.0 0.8

260.6 1.0

263.9 1.3

267.1 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

32

3.2

4.0

6.5

10.5

12.0

10.9

9.9

10.2

9.7

9.0

8.5

4268.0 3110.4 1158.0

2185.0 1594.8 590.0

1399.1 1037.0 362.0

663.4 603.1 60.0

717.6 656.3 61.0

1102.2 519.5 583.0

1129.7 789.3 340.0

2022.6 1620.6 402.0

3379.7 2713.1 667.0

4347.1 3454.3 893.0

4721.8 3649.0 1073.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.2 3.4 6.1 11.1

17.4 4.4 6.2 11.3

17.6 4.5 6.3 11.4

17.8 4.3 6.3 11.4

17.9 4 6.4 11.5

18.1 3.8 6.5 11.6

18.3 3.8 6.5 11.8

18.6 4.8 6.6 12

18.8 5 6.7 12.1

19 5.2 6.8 12.3

19.3 5.3 6.9 12.4

19.5 5 7 12.6

19.8 5.1 7.1 12.7

20 5 7.1 12.9

20.3 5.3 7.2 13

15 2

15.1 3.2

15.2 3.1

15.2 2.8

15.3 2.6

15.4 2.3

15.5 2.3

15.7 3.2

15.8 3.2

16 3.5

16.1 3.6

16.2 3.3

16.4 3.4

16.5 3.3

16.7 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.8 30.2

35.2 30.4

35.5 30.6

35.8 30.7

36 30.8

36.3 30.9

36.6 31.1

37.1 31.3

37.4 31.5

37.7 31.6

38 31.8

38.4 31.9

38.7 32

38.9 32.1

39.3 32.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.3 2

38.5 2.5

38.8 2.4

39 2.6

39.2 2.6

39.5 2.5

39.8 2.6

40 2.7

40.3 2.8

40.6 2.9

40.9 3

41.2 2.9

41.5 3

41.8 3

42.1 2.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

158.8 2

159.5 1.8

160.4 1.6

161.2 1.9

162 2

162.7 2

163.5 1.9

164.5 2

165.3 2

166 2.1

167 2.1

167.8 2

168.7 2.1

169.7 2.2

170.7 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.5

7.5 2.8

7.5 3.2

7.6 3.1

7.7 3

7.7 3

7.8 2.7

7.8 2.5

7.8 2.1

7.9 2.3

7.9 2.4

8 2

8 2

8 1.7

8 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.3 2.1

152 1.7

152.9 1.6

153.6 1.9

154.3 1.9

155 1.9

155.8 1.9

156.7 2

157.4 2

158.1 2.1

159 2.1

159.9 2

160.7 2.1

161.7 2.2

162.6 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 -4.2

6.9 -2.8

6.9 -2.7

7 0.3

7 1.9

7.2 4.1

7.4 7.1

7.6 10

7.9 12.2

8.2 13.8

8.5 15.1

8.8 15.3

9.1 15.2

9.4 14.7

9.6 13.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.5 0.8

30.7 2.5

31 2.6

31.1 2.4

31.3 2.5

31.4 2.5

31.6 1.9

31.6 1.6

31.7 1.3

31.7 1

31.9 1

32 1.2

32.1 1.5

32.3 1.8

32.5 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 23.5 1.9

4.8 23.7 2

4.9 23.9 2

4.9 24 2

4.9 24.1 2

5 24.2 2

5 24.2 2.1

5.1 24.2 2.1

5.1 24.2 2.1

5.1 24.2 2.1

5.2 24.3 2.1

5.2 24.3 2.1

5.3 24.4 2.2

5.3 24.5 2.2

5.4 24.6 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 3.5

1.9 2.5

2 0.3

2 1.3

2 3.4

2 5.4

2.1 5.2

2.1 4.2

2.1 1.8

2.1 0.1

2.1 0.4

2.1 2.1

2.1 3.2

2.1 3.8

2.1 3.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7 0.3

7.1 1.3

7.1 1.6

7.1 1.7

7.2 1.9

7.2 1.9

7.2 1.6

7.2 1

7.2 0.8

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.6

7.2 0.5

7.3 0.6

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 6.5

17.6 3

17.8 2.5

18 3.6

18.2 3.6

18.3 4.1

18.6 4.4

18.8 4.5

19.1 5.2

19.4 6

19.7 6.1

20 6.1

20.3 6

20.6 5.9

20.9 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.7 1.8

32.8 0.6

33 1.6

33 1.7

33.2 1.6

33.3 1.3

33.4 1.1

33.6 1.7

33.8 1.7

33.9 1.8

34 1.9

34.1 1.4

34.2 1.4

34.4 1.5

34.5 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 5.4

24.9 4.6

25 3.1

25.1 2.6

25.1 2

25.1 1.2

25.2 0.7

25.2 0.5

25.1 -0.1

25 -0.4

25 -0.8

24.9 -1

24.9 -1

24.8 -0.9

24.8 -0.8

8.6 3.2

8.6 2.9

8.7 1.9

8.7 2.1

8.7 1.9

8.8 1.7

8.8 1.4

8.8 1.2

8.8 1.2

8.9 1.1

8.8 0.6

8.9 0.3

8.9 0.1

8.9 0

8.9 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.2 -0.8

1.2 0.2

1.2 -3.4

1.2 -2.6

1.2 -1.8

1.2 -2

1.2 -2

1.2 -1.9

1.2 -1.8

1.2 -1.7

1.2 -1.6

1.2 -1.4

1.2 -1

1.2 -0.8

1.2 -0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 -0.7

20.2 -0.9

20.3 -0.9

20.3 -0.1

20.3 0.2

20.4 0.6

20.4 0.8

20.5 0.8

20.5 0.9

20.5 0.8

20.6 0.8

20.6 0.9

20.7 0.8

20.7 0.9

20.8 0.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13222

13266

13345

13416

13505

13599

13715

13831

13942

14055

14184

14296

14410

14529

14642

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

494.8 0.1

495.3 0.2

495.9 0.3

496.6 0.4

497.7 0.6

498.9 0.7

500.3 0.9

501.8 1

503.5 1.2

505.2 1.2

506.9 1.3

508.9 1.4

511.4 1.6

514 1.8

516.7 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

255.7 0.8

256.3 1

256.7 1

257 0.9

257.6 0.8

258.2 0.7

259 0.9

259.5 1

260.2 1

261 1.1

261.8 1.1

262.6 1.2

263.4 1.3

264.5 1.3

265.1 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.8

9.9

10

10.1

10.2

10.2

10.1

10

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.3

9.1

8.9

8.7

1081 731 350

1209 837 373

1323 948 375

1489 1133 357

1742 1414 328

2222 1807 415

2637 2128 509

2902 2327 575

3218 2585 632

3568 2873 695

3831 3067 764

4080 3247 833

4292 3417 876

4459 3545 914

4557 3609 949

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


Gainesville

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA is expected to show relatively low growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.5 percent growth while per capita income level is expected to average 32.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 45.1. Population growth will average 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 9,115.24 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.8 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 6.9 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.0 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.5 percent. Other Services, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.1, -0.3, and -2.3 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 264,275 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 247,336 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,939 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,290 in 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 11,471 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands Hospital – 13,011 employees

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees

$5 million grant will help create jobs in technical fields

• Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • Alachua County Government – 2,029 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Santa Fe Community College – 796 employees Source: Alachua County, Shands Hospital

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

• Florida Works, a Gainesville area workforce board, will receive $5 million to fund training programs in biomanufacturing and health care.

• The grant will be dispersed to multiple companies, and it will cover 50-90% of the costs of on-the-job training for newly hired, formerly unemployed workers. • Florida Works estimates that the grant will help to create at least 264 new jobs. Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 11, 2012


Gainesville

Silver Airways announces flights to and from Orlando and Tampa

• Silver Airways, formerly Gulfstream International Airlines, will start offering once daily flights to and from Orlando and once daily flights to and from Tampa. The round trip cost will be around $100.

• Silver is also moving its maintenance facility from Ft. Lauderdale to Gainesville Regional Airport. The company expects to initially create about 65 jobs and expand to 100 jobs long-term.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 29, 2012

Gatornationals among biggest local economic drivers

Commission approves incentive program for businesses to locate in CRA

• The Gainesville County Commission approved two incentive programs for business to locate in Innovation Square and Gainesville Technology Enterprise Center. One incentive is that relocation costs will be reimbursed up to 50%. The other incentive is that companies that create high-wage jobs (at least 150% of the average wage) will receive a payout according to how much each job pays. • The program has been criticized for only incentivizing the creation of high-wage jobs, and not low-wage ones.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 15, 2011

• Gatornationals, a local racing event, generates a minimum economic impact of $60 million according to the general manager of Auto-Plus Raceway. • The event is larger than a UF football game, drawing over 100,000 people.

• Hotels fill up every year, and charge increased rates for the weekend of the race. Race sponsors offer entertainment for racing teams, often generating more income for local restaurants and other businesses. Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 7, 2012

Where state cuts will hurt locally

• Shands at the University of Florida will see cuts mostly to its Medicaid reimbursement. It may have to stop offering treatment to some patients on the plan. • The school board has received a budget increase but it may still have to lay off workers due to increases in costs and the Student Success Act which requires bonuses for high-performing teachers.

• Alachua County will also suffer from Medicaid cuts and new legislation which requires counties to pay a large portion of unpaid Medicare bills. Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 14, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

10000.0

8.0%

8500.0

6.0%

8000.0

4.0%

7500.0 7000.0 6500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0 120.0

36

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

(Millions 2000 $)

9500.0 9000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 4.4 5.2 3.9

8.9 -2.8 5.2 3.7

9.2 3.4 5.2 4.0

9.6 4.1 5.4 4.2

9.8 2.1 5.5 4.3

10.1 3.3 5.7 4.4

10.5 4.3 5.9 4.6

11.0 4.4 6.2 4.8

11.6 4.9 6.5 5.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 5.0

8.3 2.8

8.4 1.1

8.2 -3.0

8.3 1.6

8.4 1.6

8.5 0.7

8.6 1.8

8.9 2.6

9.1 2.7

9.4 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.5 31.6

33.8 32.1

35.0 32.1

33.8 31.0

34.8 31.3

36.0 31.7

36.6 31.7

37.6 32.1

38.8 32.6

40.1 33.1

41.5 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.9 5.1

38.2 3.4

39.0 2.2

40.4 3.5

41.2 2.0

42.3 2.7

43.3 2.3

44.4 2.7

45.7 2.9

47.1 3.1

48.6 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

132.3 1.6

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.6 -4.4

126.7 -0.7

126.5 -0.2

125.6 -0.7

127.0 1.1

128.5 1.3

130.3 1.4

132.2 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 11.0

5.8 2.0

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16.0

4.4 -5.2

4.4 -0.4

4.6 3.1

4.7 3.1

4.8 2.5

4.9 2.0

5.0 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

126.6 1.3

128.3 1.4

127.9 -0.3

122.9 -3.9

122.3 -0.5

122.1 -0.2

121.0 -0.9

122.2 1.0

123.7 1.2

125.4 1.4

127.3 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 5.3

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.3 -7.5

4.1 -5.5

3.9 -3.6

4.0 2.0

4.4 11.5

5.1 13.9

5.6 9.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 3.3

20.3 4.0

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -7.0

17.9 -2.2

18.2 1.7

18.3 0.4

18.6 1.8

18.8 0.8

19.0 1.2

19.3 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.5 13.1 2.3

2.4 13.4 2.4

2.4 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.5 2.5

2.5 13.5 2.6

2.6 13.6 2.7

2.7 13.7 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 -2.9

2.0 2.6

1.9 -7.0

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.4 -5.0

1.4 -3.6

1.4 3.3

1.4 1.2

1.5 2.8

1.5 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 4.0

6.4 -0.5

6.2 -3.3

6.0 -3.6

6.1 1.2

5.9 -2.4

5.9 -0.7

6.0 1.6

6.0 0.6

6.0 0.4

6.0 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 1.4

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.8

10.3 -3.9

10.3 -0.1

10.5 1.4

10.4 -0.7

10.8 3.8

11.4 5.3

12.0 5.8

12.6 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 0.1

21.3 -0.6

21.9 2.9

22.0 0.2

22.1 0.7

22.1 0.1

22.0 -0.5

22.3 1.0

22.6 1.4

22.8 1.0

23.2 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 -2.0

14.0 4.1

14.5 3.7

13.4 -7.2

12.9 -3.9

13.6 5.4

13.7 0.3

13.9 1.5

13.8 -0.4

13.7 -1.1

13.5 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.5 -6.1

4.4 -3.1

4.3 -0.8

4.3 -2.1

4.3 1.4

4.3 0.6

4.3 -0.3

4.3 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4.0 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 10.6

4.3 -8.9

4.2 -2.1

4.1 -2.8

4.0 -2.5

3.9 -1.6

3.9 -0.8

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.5

37.6 -1.3

37.0 -1.5

36.9 -0.2

37.0 0.2

37.1 0.3

37.3 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8680.6

9018.1

8981.1

8735.1

8869.6

8866.6

8858.3

8985.9

9197.9

9418.9

9634.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

256.0 2.2

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.6 0.6

264.6 0.4

265.9 0.5

267.2 0.5

269.3 0.8

271.9 1.0

274.9 1.1

278.1 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

132.0 1.6

135.7 2.8

139.0 2.4

138.1 -0.6

139.0 0.7

139.0 0.0

139.1 0.0

140.4 1.0

141.4 0.7

142.3 0.6

143.0 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2.6

2.9

4.3

7.0

8.3

7.9

7.3

7.1

6.8

6.3

6.0

1917.4 1161.1 756.0

1450.6 767.0 684.0

1057.0 516.8 540.0

511.6 364.3 147.0

510.8 404.4 106.0

456.4 291.3 165.0

588.9 343.1 246.0

787.4 495.3 292.0

1124.2 756.7 368.0

1436.8 952.4 484.0

1566.8 993.7 573.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


Gainesville

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.7 1.3 5.4 4.3

9.8 2.6 5.5 4.4

9.9 3.5 5.5 4.4

10 3.4 5.6 4.4

10.1 3.3 5.6 4.4

10.1 3.2 5.7 4.5

10.2 3.2 5.8 4.5

10.4 4 5.8 4.6

10.5 4.2 5.9 4.6

10.6 4.4 5.9 4.7

10.7 4.5 6 4.7

10.8 4.3 6.1 4.8

10.9 4.4 6.1 4.8

11.1 4.4 6.2 4.9

11.2 4.6 6.3 4.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 0

8.5 1.4

8.5 2.1

8.6 2

8.6 1.8

8.7 1.7

8.7 1.8

8.8 2.5

8.8 2.5

8.9 2.7

8.9 2.8

9 2.6

9.1 2.7

9.1 2.7

9.2 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.5 31.7

36.8 31.8

37 31.9

37.2 31.9

37.4 32

37.6 32.1

37.9 32.2

38.4 32.4

38.6 32.5

38.9 32.6

39.2 32.8

39.6 32.9

39.9 33

40.2 33.2

40.5 33.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.1 2.1

43.4 2.6

43.7 2.5

44 2.7

44.3 2.7

44.6 2.7

44.9 2.7

45.2 2.8

45.6 2.9

45.9 3

46.3 3.1

46.6 3

47 3.1

47.3 3.1

47.7 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

125.4 -1.3

125.6 -0.9

126.1 0.7

126.4 1

126.8 1.1

127.1 1.2

127.5 1.1

128 1.2

128.4 1.2

128.7 1.3

129.2 1.3

129.6 1.3

130.1 1.3

130.6 1.5

131.1 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 3

4.6 3.5

4.6 3.3

4.7 3.2

4.7 3.2

4.7 3.2

4.7 2.9

4.8 2.7

4.8 2.3

4.8 2.5

4.9 2.5

4.9 2.2

4.9 2.2

4.9 1.9

4.9 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

120.9 -1.5

121.1 -1

121.5 0.6

121.7 0.9

122.1 1

122.4 1.1

122.8 1.1

123.2 1.2

123.5 1.2

123.9 1.2

124.3 1.2

124.7 1.2

125.2 1.3

125.6 1.4

126.1 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -4.3

3.9 -4.1

3.9 -3.4

3.9 -1.1

3.9 0.5

4 2.8

4.1 5.9

4.2 8.7

4.4 10.9

4.5 12.4

4.7 13.7

4.8 14.1

5 14.3

5.1 14.1

5.3 13.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 -0.7

18.3 0.3

18.5 2.1

18.5 1.9

18.6 2

18.7 1.9

18.7 1.5

18.8 1.2

18.8 0.8

18.8 0.5

18.8 0.5

18.9 0.7

18.9 1

19 1.3

19.1 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.3 2.5

2.4 13.5 2.5

2.4 13.5 2.5

2.5 13.5 2.5

2.5 13.6 2.5

2.5 13.6 2.6

2.5 13.5 2.6

2.5 13.5 2.6

2.5 13.5 2.6

2.5 13.5 2.6

2.6 13.5 2.6

2.6 13.6 2.7

2.6 13.6 2.7

2.6 13.6 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -3

1.4 -2.5

1.4 0

1.4 1

1.4 2.8

1.4 4.7

1.4 4.6

1.4 3.6

1.4 1.4

1.4 -0.3

1.4 0

1.5 1.7

1.5 2.7

1.5 3.4

1.5 3.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -1.9

5.9 0.4

5.9 1.4

5.9 1.5

6 1.7

6 1.7

6 1.4

6 0.8

6 0.6

6 0.5

6 0.4

6 0.3

6 0.4

6 0.5

6 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 -1.4

10.4 -0.5

10.5 2.3

10.6 3.4

10.7 3.5

10.8 3.9

10.9 4.2

11.1 4.4

11.3 5.1

11.4 5.8

11.6 6

11.8 5.9

11.9 5.8

12.1 5.7

12.3 5.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22 -1.4

22.1 -0.5

22.2 1.3

22.2 1.3

22.3 1.1

22.3 0.9

22.3 0.7

22.5 1.3

22.5 1.3

22.6 1.3

22.7 1.5

22.7 0.9

22.7 0.9

22.8 1.1

22.9 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 -1.6

13.7 -1

13.8 3.1

13.8 2.5

13.9 1.9

13.9 1

13.9 0.6

13.9 0.3

13.8 -0.2

13.8 -0.6

13.7 -1

13.7 -1.2

13.7 -1.2

13.6 -1.1

13.6 -0.9

4.2 -3

4.3 -2.1

4.3 1.6

4.3 1.7

4.3 1.6

4.3 1.3

4.3 1

4.3 0.8

4.3 0.8

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.2

4.3 -0.1

4.3 -0.3

4.3 -0.4

4.3 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -0.6

4.2 -1.9

4.2 -4.1

4.1 -3.3

4.1 -2.6

4.1 -2.7

4 -2.7

4 -2.7

4 -2.6

4 -2.4

3.9 -2.3

3.9 -2

3.9 -1.7

3.9 -1.5

3.9 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37 -1.4

36.9 -1.7

36.9 -1.2

36.9 -0.7

36.9 -0.4

36.9 0

37 0.2

37 0.2

37 0.3

37 0.2

37.1 0.2

37.1 0.4

37.1 0.3

37.1 0.4

37.2 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8851.4

8857.4

8890.6

8919.5

8960.6

9003.5

9059.9

9116.4

9169

9221.4

9284.9

9337.7

9390.7

9447

9500.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

266.9 0.4

267.3 0.5

267.8 0.6

268.3 0.6

268.9 0.7

269.6 0.8

270.2 0.9

270.9 1

271.6 1

272.3 1

273 1

273.8 1.1

274.5 1.1

275.3 1.1

276.1 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

138.9 -0.6

139.3 0.3

139.7 1.3

139.9 1.1

140.2 1

140.6 0.9

140.9 0.8

141.1 0.9

141.2 0.7

141.5 0.7

141.7 0.6

141.9 0.6

142.1 0.7

142.5 0.7

142.6 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.2

7.1

7.1

7

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.3

6.2

6.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

578 335 244

600 345 255

630 355 275

677 390 287

745 449 296

839 541 298

889 601 288

974 654 320

1073 723 350

1182 799 382

1268 850 418

1350 896 454

1419 943 476

1474 979 496

1504 992 512

38

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Jacksonville

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.8 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The per capita income level will be one of the highest at 36.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be at a level of 50.7. Population growth will be high at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 57,944.22 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,345,596 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 27,115 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 190,865 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 864,263 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 73,314 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 190,039 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 695,538 in June 2011 for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 71,620 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees Duval County Public Schools – 13, 582 employees Mayport Naval Station – 12,677 employees City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees Baptist Health Systems – 8,276 employees Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 employees Mayo Clinic – 4,978 employees Citibank – 4,836 employees United Parcel Service – 4,100 employees St. Vincent’s Medical Center – 4,000 employees

Employment growth is expected to be 2.2 percent annually. Unemployment will average 8.7 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 4.6 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with a 2.3 percent growth rate. The State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -2.0 percent, respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Wound care firm will keep headquarters in Jacksonville, expand

• After a $200,000 incentive from the Chamber of Commerce and a $15,000 incentive from Visit Jacksonville, National Healing Corp will keep its headquarters in Jacksonville instead of moving to Atlanta or Dallas.

• The firm will also be expanding its current headquarters, hiring approximately 65 new employees and will build a new training center to teach doctors and nurses techniques for caring for patients with chronic wounds. Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 4, 2012

Source: Duval County Public Schools Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


Jacksonville

Air Force halts $355 million contract targeted for Jacksonville

• The U.S. Airforce put a temporary halt on a $355 million contract with Sierra Nevada Corp to build new planes at Jacksonville International Airport. The project will create 50 jobs if it is restarted. • The contract was halted due to litigation surrounding the awarding of the contract and allegations from Hawker Beechcraft Corp that they were not fairly considered for it.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 5, 2012

Apartments break ground at St. Johns Town Center

• A new urban-style apartment complex is being opened at the St. Johns Town Center in Jacksonville. The complex will be built by Bove LLC, a Jacksonville based company, and it will have 130 units. • The location for the complex was chosen because of the easy walking distance to shops and nightlife provided by the Town Center.

Source: The Florida Times-Union February 24, 2012

Feds pay double, even triple, for flood-risk Jacksonville homes

• Under a federal program, houses that have a history of flooding are being bought from homeowners and demolished.

• The Federal Emergency Management Agency began the program after it decided to cut its losses and stop paying to repair flood damage on the same houses year after year.

• The program stipulates that the houses cannot be bought for less than they were paid for, and many of the residents that sell them are happy to be rid of an otherwise unsellable house. Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 13, 2012

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

Jacksonville shipping company emerges from bankruptcy

• The Trailor Bridge shipping company emerged from chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings with an agreement to refinance $82.5 million in bonds.

• The company, one of the Jacksonville Port Authority’s biggest clients, will continue making its twice daily shipments from the port. • SEACOR Holdings, which is in the aviation and marine business, is now the largest shareholder in the company. Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 16, 2012


Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

65000.0

55000.0

6.0%

50000.0

4.0%

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0

1.4

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

660.0

1.2

60000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


Jacksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.4 1.9 28.8 24.6

50.7 -5.0 27.4 23.4

52.6 3.7 27.9 24.7

54.9 4.5 28.7 26.2

57.0 3.8 29.8 27.2

59.6 4.5 31.3 28.3

62.9 5.5 32.9 30.0

66.2 5.4 34.7 31.6

69.9 5.5 36.4 33.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.9 7.3

49.7 1.5

49.0 -1.3

46.5 -5.2

47.3 1.9

48.3 2.0

49.4 2.3

50.9 3.0

52.8 3.8

54.8 3.7

56.8 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.1 38.1

40.1 38.0

40.3 37.0

37.9 34.8

38.9 35.0

40.2 35.3

41.2 35.7

42.5 36.3

44.1 37.1

45.7 37.8

47.4 38.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.0 5.5

44.3 3.0

44.8 1.1

45.2 0.9

46.5 2.9

47.6 2.4

48.7 2.2

49.9 2.6

51.3 2.8

52.9 3.0

54.4 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

625.0 3.5

633.8 1.4

621.2 -2.0

586.3 -5.6

581.0 -0.9

585.5 0.8

595.1 1.6

607.8 2.1

622.8 2.5

638.0 2.4

651.5 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.9 -2.0

28.7 -10.0

26.9 -6.4

26.9 0.2

27.3 1.5

28.0 2.5

28.6 2.2

29.2 1.9

29.3 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

591.7 3.7

601.3 1.6

589.3 -2.0

557.6 -5.4

554.1 -0.6

558.6 0.8

567.8 1.7

579.8 2.1

594.2 2.5

608.8 2.5

622.2 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

50.1 10.3

49.2 -1.7

43.0 -12.7

32.8 -23.7

28.5 -13.2

28.0 -1.7

28.0 0.0

28.8 3.0

32.4 12.5

37.0 14.1

40.1 8.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136.3 -2.1

126.9 -6.9

124.1 -2.2

125.1 0.8

128.5 2.8

132.1 2.8

134.5 1.8

137.0 1.9

139.5 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

29.9 74.9 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.4 32.2

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.5 69.0 29.6

25.6 69.9 29.6

26.0 71.8 30.4

26.8 73.2 31.6

27.5 73.8 32.6

28.3 74.4 33.6

29.0 75.2 34.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.3

9.8 -3.8

9.8 0.2

10.2 3.5

10.3 1.1

10.5 2.2

10.7 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.9 1.0

60.2 0.5

59.7 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.1 -1.1

53.9 -2.3

53.6 -0.5

54.6 1.9

55.1 0.8

55.5 0.7

55.7 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.4 8.3

94.3 -1.2

88.0 -6.7

83.1 -5.5

85.6 3.1

88.0 2.7

91.2 3.7

94.5 3.6

100.1 5.9

105.3 5.2

109.1 3.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.5

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.5

85.3 1.9

86.9 1.9

88.1 1.4

89.3 1.4

91.0 1.9

93.0 2.2

96.3 3.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

62.2 2.9

65.9 6.0

67.3 2.0

64.7 -3.9

64.5 -0.3

67.6 4.8

70.5 4.4

72.2 2.4

72.7 0.6

72.4 -0.4

72.2 -0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 3.2

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24.0 -9.6

23.8 -0.8

23.3 -2.3

23.4 0.4

23.7 1.4

23.9 0.6

23.8 -0.3

23.8 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 -2.6

17.0 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18.0 2.8

17.3 -4.3

17.0 -1.6

16.6 -2.6

16.2 -2.4

15.9 -1.6

15.8 -0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

57.1 0.0

59.1 3.6

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.1

58.9 0.1

58.8 -0.2

57.6 -2.0

57.7 0.2

58.0 0.6

58.4 0.7

58.9 0.8

54830.8

55569.9

54331.3

53210.7

54103.5

54611.8

55410.9

56843.4

58860.8

60861.8

62668.2

1284.8 2.5

1308.2 1.8

1324.0 1.2

1336.9 1.0

1350.6 1.0

1366.4 1.2

1383.5 1.3

1402.8 1.4

1425.0 1.6

1450.1 1.8

1475.5 1.7

650.3 3.2

669.9 3.0

686.9 2.5

683.4 -0.5

687.9 0.7

687.9 0.0

694.5 1.0

702.1 1.1

710.7 1.2

720.4 1.4

731.3 1.5

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

3.2

3.7

5.7

9.7

11.2

10.1

9.1

9.1

8.6

7.9

7.2

16714.1 12299.1 4415.0

10459.4 7517.3 2942.0

7059.1 5175.5 1884.0

4933.4 3405.2 1528.0

3702.7 3551.4 151.0

3699.5 3275.5 424.0

5383.5 3375.2 2008.0

6962.7 4636.6 2326.0

10020.4 7255.3 2765.0

12828.6 9300.7 3528.0

14061.4 9885.8 4176.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Jacksonville

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

56.7 3.2 29.7 27

57.4 4.3 30 27.4

58 4.6 30.4 27.7

58.6 4.5 30.7 27.9

59.2 4.5 31.1 28.2

59.9 4.4 31.4 28.5

60.6 4.5 31.8 28.8

61.6 5.2 32.2 29.4

62.4 5.4 32.7 29.8

63.3 5.7 33.1 30.2

64.1 5.8 33.6 30.6

65 5.6 34 31

65.8 5.5 34.4 31.4

66.6 5.3 34.9 31.8

67.5 5.2 35.3 32.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.2 1.8

49.6 3.1

50 3.1

50.3 3.1

50.7 3.1

51 2.9

51.4 3

52.1 3.6

52.5 3.6

53.1 4

53.6 4.1

54.1 3.9

54.5 3.8

55 3.6

55.4 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

41 35.6

41.4 35.8

41.7 35.9

42 36

42.3 36.2

42.6 36.3

43 36.5

43.5 36.8

43.9 37

44.3 37.2

44.7 37.3

45.1 37.5

45.5 37.7

45.9 37.8

46.2 38

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.5 2.1

48.8 2.6

49.1 2.5

49.5 2.7

49.8 2.6

50.1 2.6

50.4 2.6

50.8 2.7

51.1 2.8

51.5 2.8

51.9 2.9

52.3 3

52.7 3

53 3

53.4 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

593.6 1.4

596.2 1.6

599.7 1.7

603 2

606 2.1

609.3 2.2

613 2.2

616.9 2.3

620.8 2.4

624.7 2.5

628.9 2.6

632.7 2.6

636.1 2.5

639.7 2.4

643.3 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.3 0.5

27.4 1.9

27.6 2.8

27.8 2.5

28 2.5

28.1 2.6

28.2 2.4

28.4 2.2

28.5 2

28.7 2.2

28.9 2.3

29 2.3

29.1 2.1

29.2 1.7

29.3 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

566.3 1.5

568.8 1.6

572.1 1.7

575.2 2

578.1 2.1

581.2 2.2

584.8 2.2

588.5 2.3

592.3 2.5

596 2.5

600 2.6

603.7 2.6

607 2.5

610.5 2.4

614.1 2.3

28 -0.6

27.9 -1.4

27.9 -2.5

28 -0.3

28.4 1.5

29 3.9

29.8 6.9

30.8 9.8

31.8 11.9

32.9 13.4

34.2 14.6

35.4 15

36.5 14.8

37.6 14.2

38.5 12.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.9 2.2

128.9 3.2

130 3.1

130.9 2.9

131.6 2.9

132.5 2.9

133.2 2.4

133.6 2

134.1 1.9

134.8 1.7

135.5 1.7

136.1 1.9

136.6 1.9

137.2 1.8

138 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.9 71.4 30.2

26.1 71.8 30.5

26.3 72.5 30.8

26.5 72.8 31.1

26.7 73 31.4

27 73.4 31.7

27.1 73.6 32

27.3 73.6 32.2

27.4 73.7 32.5

27.6 73.8 32.7

27.8 74 33

28 74.1 33.3

28.2 74.2 33.5

28.4 74.5 33.7

28.6 74.8 33.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 0.6

9.8 1.1

9.9 0.2

9.9 1

10.1 3

10.3 5

10.3 4.9

10.3 3.7

10.3 1.3

10.3 -0.4

10.3 0

10.5 1.6

10.5 2.4

10.5 2.6

10.6 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

53.5 -1.3

53.7 0.8

54 1.6

54.4 1.9

54.6 2.1

54.8 2

54.9 1.7

55 1.1

55.1 0.9

55.1 0.7

55.2 0.6

55.3 0.5

55.4 0.6

55.6 0.8

55.6 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

91.1 4.9

91.4 3

92.2 2.3

93.1 3.3

94 3.2

94.9 3.7

96.1 4.3

97.6 4.8

99.3 5.6

101 6.5

102.7 6.8

103.9 6.4

104.8 5.6

105.8 4.7

106.8 4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

87.9 1.1

88.3 1.1

88.8 1.7

88.9 1.7

89.2 1.6

89.4 1.3

89.8 1.1

90.5 1.7

90.9 1.9

91.1 1.9

91.5 2

92 1.7

92.6 1.9

93.3 2.4

94 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

70.2 4.1

70.9 3.1

71.4 3.7

71.9 3.3

72.2 2.8

72.3 2

72.6 1.6

72.8 1.3

72.8 0.9

72.7 0.5

72.6 0

72.6 -0.4

72.4 -0.5

72.3 -0.5

72.4 -0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 0

23.4 0.9

23.5 1.5

23.7 1.6

23.7 1.5

23.7 1.3

23.8 1.1

23.8 0.8

23.9 0.8

23.9 0.7

23.9 0.2

23.8 0

23.8 -0.3

23.8 -0.5

23.8 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17 -1.3

16.9 0

16.8 -2.5

16.7 -2.6

16.6 -2.5

16.5 -2.6

16.4 -2.5

16.3 -2.6

16.2 -2.5

16.1 -2.4

16 -2.2

16 -2

15.9 -1.7

15.9 -1.4

15.8 -1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

57.6 -2.6

57.5 -2

57.5 -1.1

57.6 -0.2

57.6 0

57.7 0.3

57.8 0.5

57.9 0.5

58 0.6

58.1 0.7

58.2 0.6

58.3 0.7

58.4 0.7

58.5 0.7

58.6 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

55297

55501

55848

56189

56583

57033

57569

58057

58581

59109

59696

60179

60630

61094

61543

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1381.3 1.2

1385.7 1.3

1390.3 1.3

1395.2 1.3

1400.2 1.4

1405.4 1.4

1410.6 1.5

1415.9 1.5

1421.6 1.5

1428 1.6

1434.5 1.7

1440.8 1.8

1447 1.8

1453.2 1.8

1459.5 1.7

693.4 1

695.8 1.1

697.8 1.2

699.4 1.2

701 1.1

702.7 1

705.5 1.1

707.5 1.2

709.7 1.2

711.8 1.3

713.9 1.2

716 1.2

718.9 1.3

722.2 1.5

724.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.2

9.1

9

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.2

8

7.8

7.6

5249 3324 1925

5716 3309 2407

5836 3390 2445

6018 3662 2355

6479 4178 2301

7363 5046 2317

7991 5660 2331

8703 6216 2486

9551 6909 2642

10525 7679 2846

11303 8217 3086

12035 8717 3318

12654 9189 3465

13156 9550 3606

13470 9747 3723

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


Lakeland

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and the upcoming Legoland Florida in Winter Haven. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show modest levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.5 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 42.9, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average at 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 17,059.80 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 602,095 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 274,493 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.8% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,674 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 8,063 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees

Employment growth is expected to be 1.7 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 9.9 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs.

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.1 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 3.3 percent a year. Other Services, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.1 percent, -0.3 percent, and -1.8 percent respectively.

• City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s

• GEICO – 2,005 employees 

Development Plan presented, centered around long-awaited Polk Commerce Center

• Watson Clinic – 1,600 employees  • GC Services – 1,000 employees  • Rooms To Go, Inc. – 900 employees • Summit Consulting Inc. – 654 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 employees • Ascent Healthcare Solutions – 600 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• Commissioners embraced the vision of new research business parks, hotels and convention facilities, and new residential and retail development, with emphasis on the development of Polk Commerce Centre, a 2,507 acre corridor at the edge of Auburndale. • The new vision aims to rebrand the area to attract high-end investors and create a diverse community while guiding future development. • Later this year County Manager Jim Freeman will present an analysis with recommendations on how to proceed, costs, and funding information that will come from partnership investigations, a hospitality analysis, a marketing plan, and allocation of funds.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 25, 2012 44

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Lakeland

Mosaic: Resort to provide luxury tourist site

• The Streamsong resort being built by The Mosaic Co. will include two 18-hole golf courses, a clubhouse, and 216 rooms on the 16,000 acres of rural land.

• The two golf courses are expected to draw golfers worldwide and are scheduled to open in December and the full resort about a year later. • Once the site is operational, plans call for more than 200 permanent workers. • Real estate development of former phosphate land will show that mining and tourist development can take place in the same area.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 22, 2012

Aldi coming to Winter Haven

This claim is disputed and the FDA does not guarantee the safety of those medications. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 10, 2012

State to close prison in Polk City

• Demilly Correctional Institution near Polk City is scheduled to close this summer as part of a larger budget-tightening related to a decline in prison admissions.

• Community impact is hoped to be low as nearby Polk Correctional Institution will remain open and will absorb as much staff as possible. • The staff of 118 at Demilly is the smallest of the seven prisons to be closed in an effort to reduce Florida’s budget shortfall. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 12, 2012

• Aldi, Zaxby’s restaurant, and Murphy Oil will be coming into the northeast corner of Avenue K Southwest and U.S. 17, according to city plans. • The three new businesses are important to the city because they are part of the effort to keep Winter Haven residents shopping locally in Winter Haven. • Hiring of local people for the added jobs is expected.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 6, 2012

Pharmacy imports low-cost drugs from Canada, Germany

• “The Canadian Drugstore” in Lakeland boasts 80% savings on prescription drugs, providing clients with medications from countries like Canada and Germany.

• Seniors in particular are attracted to the lowcost prescriptions, with individuals experiencing savings of roughly $2,000 a year. • The drugs come from 16 different pharmacies throughout the world in countries claimed to have the same regulations as the FDA.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


Lakeland Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

46

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


Lakeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.3 3.6 8.1 11.3

18.2 -5.9 7.7 10.4

18.8 3.3 7.7 11.0

19.6 4.2 7.8 11.7

20.2 3.4 8.0 12.2

21.0 4.1 8.4 12.7

22.1 5.2 8.8 13.4

23.3 5.2 9.2 14.1

24.6 5.5 9.7 14.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 5.3

17.7 2.8

17.7 0.3

16.6 -6.1

16.9 1.5

17.2 1.7

17.5 1.9

18.0 2.6

18.6 3.5

19.3 3.5

20.0 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.0 30.2

31.8 30.2

32.5 29.8

30.3 27.8

31.1 28.0

32.1 28.2

32.8 28.4

33.7 28.7

34.9 29.3

36.2 29.9

37.6 30.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 4.7

38.0 1.9

38.5 1.3

38.9 1.1

39.6 1.9

40.5 2.3

41.3 2.0

42.3 2.4

43.5 2.6

44.7 2.8

45.9 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

211.7 2.2

211.8 0.1

208.4 -1.6

197.5 -5.2

193.9 -1.8

192.5 -0.7

193.0 0.3

196.5 1.8

200.8 2.2

205.6 2.4

210.2 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.2

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.5

13.9 -1.6

14.1 1.4

14.5 2.5

14.8 2.2

15.1 2.0

15.2 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

193.8 2.6

194.5 0.4

192.0 -1.3

182.6 -4.9

179.8 -1.6

178.6 -0.7

178.9 0.2

182.0 1.8

186.0 2.2

190.5 2.4

194.9 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 4.1

15.8 -6.5

13.9 -12.2

11.7 -15.8

10.6 -8.7

10.2 -4.6

9.8 -3.9

10.0 2.4

11.2 12.1

12.7 13.8

13.9 9.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

48.9 2.8

49.0 0.1

47.8 -2.5

44.9 -6.0

44.2 -1.6

44.8 1.4

45.5 1.6

46.6 2.4

47.4 1.6

48.3 1.9

49.4 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.4 26.1 12.5

10.1 26.4 12.5

9.6 26.1 12.1

9.1 24.2 11.6

8.7 24.0 11.5

8.5 24.8 11.5

8.5 25.0 11.8

8.7 25.4 12.3

8.9 25.4 12.7

9.2 25.5 13.1

9.5 25.7 13.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 3.0

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.3

1.8 -5.3

1.7 -5.5

1.7 -0.6

1.7 3.4

1.8 1.3

1.8 2.9

1.9 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 4.2

11.8 2.4

12.2 2.8

11.8 -3.4

11.5 -2.5

11.2 -2.0

11.1 -0.9

11.3 1.6

11.4 0.6

11.4 0.5

11.4 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.9 -0.8

32.0 -2.6

31.3 -2.4

29.0 -7.2

28.7 -1.2

28.3 -1.3

28.1 -0.7

29.0 3.4

30.5 5.0

32.1 5.4

33.5 4.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.6 4.2

28.0 5.1

29.1 4.0

28.7 -1.4

28.6 -0.4

29.1 1.8

29.2 0.4

29.6 1.3

30.1 1.6

30.4 1.3

31.1 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.0 2.7

17.4 2.9

17.4 -0.5

16.5 -4.7

16.2 -1.9

16.1 -0.6

17.0 5.4

17.2 1.2

17.2 -0.3

17.0 -1.0

16.9 -0.8

9.5 5.5

9.0 -5.3

8.6 -4.1

8.3 -4.0

8.3 -0.1

8.1 -2.0

8.0 -1.3

8.1 1.1

8.1 0.4

8.1 -0.5

8.0 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.3

1.4 0.1

1.4 -1.3

1.6 14.7

1.2 -24.8

1.2 -0.7

1.1 -2.7

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -1.5

1.1 -0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 2.7

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.5

28.4 -0.5

27.9 -1.7

27.3 -2.2

27.2 0.0

27.4 0.4

27.5 0.5

27.7 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16666.4

16823.9

16508.2

16108.4

16278.0

16254.1

16325.9

16720.7

17299.0

17893.6

18455.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

570.3 3.7

586.5 2.8

595.0 1.4

599.3 0.7

603.7 0.7

608.7 0.8

616.0 1.2

625.1 1.5

634.3 1.5

644.1 1.5

654.5 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

261.2 2.0

266.2 1.9

272.9 2.5

274.0 0.4

275.5 0.6

272.6 -1.1

271.7 -0.3

273.0 0.5

275.3 0.8

277.6 0.9

279.9 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.6

4.4

6.6

11.0

12.5

11.6

10.4

10.4

9.9

9.1

8.5

9464.2 8309.3 1155.0

4379.2 4030.6 349.0

3227.3 2365.3 862.0

1204.5 1191.2 13.0

1222.3 1165.4 57.0

1160.1 1092.2 68.0

1526.7 1486.8 40.0

2811.0 2601.7 209.0

4574.8 4089.0 486.0

5855.0 5117.8 737.0

6318.5 5340.1 978.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


Lakeland

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.1 2.7 8 12.1

20.3 4 8.1 12.3

20.6 4.4 8.1 12.4

20.7 4.3 8.2 12.5

20.9 4.1 8.3 12.6

21.1 3.9 8.4 12.7

21.4 4 8.5 12.9

21.7 4.9 8.6 13.1

22 5.1 8.7 13.3

22.3 5.4 8.8 13.5

22.6 5.5 8.9 13.6

22.9 5.2 9.1 13.8

23.1 5.2 9.2 14

23.4 5.1 9.3 14.1

23.7 5.2 9.4 14.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 1.4

17.6 2.8

17.7 3

17.8 2.8

17.9 2.6

18 2.5

18.2 2.5

18.4 3.3

18.5 3.3

18.7 3.6

18.8 3.8

19 3.5

19.2 3.5

19.3 3.4

19.5 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.7 28.4

33 28.5

33.2 28.6

33.4 28.6

33.5 28.7

33.8 28.8

34 28.9

34.5 29.1

34.7 29.2

35.1 29.4

35.4 29.5

35.7 29.7

36 29.8

36.3 29.9

36.6 30.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.2 1.9

41.5 2.3

41.7 2.2

42 2.4

42.2 2.4

42.5 2.4

42.7 2.4

43 2.5

43.3 2.6

43.6 2.7

43.9 2.8

44.2 2.8

44.5 2.8

44.8 2.8

45.1 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

192.6 -0.1

193.2 0.5

194.2 1.3

195.1 1.6

196 1.8

196.9 1.9

198 2

199.2 2.1

200.2 2.1

201.3 2.2

202.6 2.3

203.7 2.3

205 2.4

206.2 2.4

207.5 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 0.8

14.2 1.4

14.3 2.7

14.4 2.5

14.5 2.6

14.5 2.7

14.6 2.4

14.7 2.3

14.8 2

14.9 2.2

15 2.4

15 2.2

15.1 2.2

15.1 1.9

15.2 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

178.5 -0.1

179.1 0.4

179.9 1.2

180.7 1.6

181.6 1.7

182.4 1.8

183.4 1.9

184.5 2.1

185.5 2.2

186.5 2.2

187.6 2.3

188.7 2.3

189.9 2.4

191.1 2.5

192.3 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 -4.4

9.7 -3.9

9.7 -3.1

9.7 -0.8

9.9 0.9

10.1 3.3

10.3 6.3

10.7 9.4

11 11.5

11.4 13

11.8 14.3

12.2 14.5

12.6 14.3

12.9 13.9

13.3 12.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.3 1.1

45.6 1

46 2.6

46.3 2.4

46.5 2.6

46.8 2.5

47 2.1

47.2 2

47.3 1.6

47.4 1.3

47.6 1.3

47.9 1.5

48.1 1.8

48.4 2.1

48.7 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.4 24.9 11.8

8.5 25 11.9

8.6 25.2 12

8.6 25.3 12.1

8.7 25.3 12.2

8.7 25.4 12.3

8.8 25.4 12.5

8.8 25.4 12.6

8.9 25.4 12.7

8.9 25.4 12.7

9 25.4 12.8

9.1 25.4 13

9.2 25.4 13.1

9.2 25.5 13.2

9.3 25.6 13.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -1.1

1.7 -0.5

1.7 0.1

1.7 1

1.7 2.9

1.8 4.9

1.8 4.8

1.8 3.8

1.8 1.5

1.8 -0.2

1.8 0.1

1.8 1.8

1.8 2.8

1.8 3.4

1.8 3.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 -1.6

11.1 -1

11.2 1.4

11.3 1.5

11.3 1.8

11.3 1.7

11.4 1.4

11.3 0.8

11.4 0.6

11.4 0.5

11.4 0.4

11.4 0.3

11.4 0.5

11.5 0.6

11.5 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.1 -1

28.1 -0.9

28.4 1.8

28.7 3

28.9 3.1

29.1 3.5

29.5 3.9

29.8 4

30.3 4.7

30.7 5.5

31.1 5.6

31.5 5.6

31.9 5.4

32.3 5.3

32.8 5.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 -0.3

29.3 0.4

29.4 1.5

29.5 1.5

29.6 1.4

29.6 1.1

29.7 1

29.9 1.6

30 1.5

30.1 1.6

30.2 1.8

30.3 1.2

30.4 1.2

30.5 1.3

30.6 1.3

17 6.8

17.1 9.8

17.1 2.5

17.2 2

17.2 1.5

17.2 0.8

17.2 0.7

17.3 0.4

17.2 -0.1

17.1 -0.5

17.1 -0.9

17.1 -1.1

17 -1.1

17 -1

16.9 -0.8

8 -2.2

8 0.3

8 1.3

8.1 1.4

8.1 1.3

8.1 1

8.1 0.8

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.6

8.1 0.4

8.1 -0.1

8.1 -0.3

8.1 -0.5

8.1 -0.7

8.1 -0.5

1.2 6

1.2 0.9

1.2 -3.9

1.2 -3.1

1.2 -2.4

1.1 -2.5

1.1 -2.6

1.1 -2.5

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.6

1.1 -1.3

1.1 -1.1

27.3 -2.5

27.2 -2

27.2 -1.3

27.2 -0.5

27.2 -0.2

27.3 0.2

27.3 0.4

27.3 0.4

27.4 0.5

27.4 0.4

27.4 0.3

27.4 0.5

27.5 0.4

27.5 0.5

27.5 0.5

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16295

16348

16446

16534

16649

16773

16928

17079

17220

17366

17531

17671

17817

17971

18116

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

614.9 1.1

617.1 1.3

619.4 1.4

621.7 1.5

624.1 1.5

626.2 1.5

628.5 1.5

630.8 1.5

633.2 1.5

635.5 1.5

637.8 1.5

640.4 1.5

642.8 1.5

645.3 1.6

647.9 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

271.7 -0.4

272 0.4

272.1 0.4

272.1 0.4

272.6 0.4

273.2 0.4

274 0.7

274.5 0.9

274.9 0.8

275.5 0.9

276.1 0.8

276.6 0.8

277.3 0.9

278.1 0.9

278.5 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.3

10.2

10

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.2

9

8.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1442 1412 30

1585 1540 45

1751 1683 68

2044 1939 104

2501 2346 154

3109 2873 235

3591 3248 343

3939 3537 402

4361 3910 451

4835 4320 515

5165 4589 576

5459 4823 636

5785 5069 716

6027 5252 775

6149 5327 822

48

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.2 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39.2, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 53.3, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.3 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 256,216.41 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,564,635 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,496,435 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,748,066 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,320,134 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,929,399 in May 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 332,875 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Miami-Dade County Schools – 44,132 employees • Broward County Public Schools – 39,714 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees • Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.8 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 8.8 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 7.8 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.0 percent each year and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities at 1.9 percent. State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rate of -0.3 percent and -1.6 percent.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Affordable fares keep Fort Lauderdale a top Spring Break destination

• Fort Lauderdale attracts travelers during the peak March-to-April travel season and was recently ranked No. 4 among the 10 most desired Spring Break destinations, in a review of trips booked on travel website Orbitz.com. • This spring, 1 million travelers are expected to visit Broward County and spend about $1 billion.

• In addition to low airfares, tourism officials cite the city’s accessibility, warm weather, attractions, and wide range of hotels as the draw for the broad Spring Break crowd that includes family, business and convention, and collegeage travelers. Source: Sun Sentinel, March 12, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

New Florida law prohibits Miami-Dade, other governments from hiring companies tied to Cuba • Florida lawmakers passed sweeping legislation this session that prohibits local governments from hiring companies that do business with Cuba.

• The law appears to target one of the county’s largest contractors: Odebrecht USA, the Coral Gables- based subsidiary of the giant Brazilian conglomerate, in an attempt to keep taxpayer dollars out of the hands of repressive regimes.

• A major portion of the legislation, which applies to contracts worth at least $1 million, seems likely to face a court challenge for interfering with the federal government’s power to set foreign policy. Whether the legislation will stand is unclear. Source: The Miami Herald, March 13, 2012

Miami Marlins ballpark yields jobs and business contracts

• About half of the firms that have worked on the Miami Marlins ballpark and 60% of the 5,000 workers are from Miami-Dade County. • Additionally, about one-third of the workers active through November have come from the city of Miami. Each day about 750 workers are operating out of the site.

• The ballpark is more than 90% complete and on track for its 2012 debut, with its priority of local participation evident in the 14.6% participation of small businesses. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 9, 2012

Retail, hospitality sectors’ growth abroad fuels local business • Retailers, hotels, and resorts are again expanding to the Caribbean, a trend that is helping fuel growth for the South Florida offices of Suddath Relocation Systems.

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

• The trend is part of a larger one in logistics and warehousing for the region, with companies that do business globally driving growth. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 13, 2012

First state committee approves expanded gambling • Existing pari-mutuels were put on par with proposed destination resorts in regards to taxes paid and games offered in a bill passed by the Florida Committee on Regulated Industries on Monday the 9th.

• Committee member, Bogdanoff, emphasized that expanded gambling would not ruin Florida’s family-friendly image and that visitors to the state will continue to come for fun and sun. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 9, 2012

Alternative fuel could save drivers up to $1.50 per gallon

• With gasoline prices nearing $4 a gallon companies, cities, and individuals are considering alternative fuel for vehicles: compressed natural gas (CNG), which is cheaper, cleaner, and made in the United States. • Fort Lauderdale-based Wise Gas operates the first CNG station in South Florida and is building a second public station in Pompano Beach to meet rising demand.

• Commercial fleets are most likely to use CNG because of the large upfront cost of buying a CNG-only vehicle or adding a CNG storage tank. Also, heavily used vehicles recoup the outlay in fuel savings fastest because CNG costs about a third less than diesel or gasoline, after adjusting for miles per gallon. Source: Sun Sentinel, January 26, 2012


M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

280000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

240000.0 220000.0 200000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2400.0 2350.0 2300.0 2250.0 2200.0 2150.0 2100.0

1

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

180000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2450.0

0.8

260000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Miami Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7

238.3 4.1 114.3 124.0

245.2 2.9 112.9 132.3

229.1 -6.6 106.6 122.5

236.3 3.2 107.7 128.5

246.3 4.3 111.2 135.2

254.0 3.1 114.9 139.2

263.7 3.8 119.7 143.9

276.9 5.0 125.6 151.3

290.8 5.0 132.1 158.7

306.3 5.3 138.6 167.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

222.8 5.8

225.9 1.4

225.1 -0.3

209.8 -6.8

212.6 1.3

216.4 1.8

220.0 1.6

225.2 2.3

232.6 3.3

240.4 3.3

249.1 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42.2 41.0

43.9 41.6

44.9 41.2

41.5 38.0

42.2 38.0

43.4 38.1

44.2 38.2

45.3 38.7

47.0 39.5

48.7 40.3

50.6 41.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.7 4.1

47.0 2.8

47.7 1.5

48.1 0.7

49.0 2.0

50.1 2.3

51.2 2.1

52.5 2.5

53.9 2.8

55.5 2.9

57.0 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2394.7 2.5

2416.8 0.9

2352.8 -2.7

2204.3 -6.3

2183.6 -0.9

2203.4 0.9

2230.4 1.2

2269.2 1.7

2315.6 2.0

2367.2 2.2

2416.4 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

100.6 -0.5

98.6 -2.0

92.5 -6.2

79.6 -14.0

74.4 -6.6

72.6 -2.4

73.7 1.5

75.3 2.1

76.6 1.7

77.6 1.3

77.6 0.0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2294.0 2.6

2318.2 1.1

2260.3 -2.5

2124.7 -6.0

2109.3 -0.7

2130.8 1.0

2156.7 1.2

2194.0 1.7

2239.0 2.1

2289.6 2.3

2338.7 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

164.3 11.5

161.1 -2.0

134.9 -16.2

102.4 -24.1

88.0 -14.1

84.3 -4.2

82.1 -2.6

85.6 4.2

97.3 13.7

112.9 16.0

124.5 10.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

542.9 2.5

549.1 1.1

540.1 -1.6

504.4 -6.6

501.7 -0.5

505.3 0.7

516.4 2.2

528.7 2.4

536.3 1.4

544.2 1.5

552.9 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

144.7 303.6 94.6

147.6 306.2 95.3

144.4 300.9 94.8

134.6 281.1 88.6

132.1 282.1 87.6

131.7 284.1 89.5

134.9 287.1 92.7

139.0 291.4 96.2

142.1 292.0 99.5

145.1 293.2 102.8

147.6 295.4 106.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 -4.9

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.2 -4.0

41.6 -3.5

41.3 -0.7

42.7 3.4

43.0 0.7

43.7 1.7

44.2 1.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

183.5 3.0

181.4 -1.2

170.8 -5.8

155.1 -9.2

151.4 -2.4

151.2 -0.2

150.5 -0.5

151.8 0.9

152.2 0.2

153.2 0.7

153.6 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

370.3 3.2

372.5 0.6

355.6 -4.5

327.8 -7.8

329.9 0.6

336.2 1.9

342.5 1.9

353.3 3.1

372.4 5.4

393.6 5.7

410.9 4.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

308.1 2.2

318.9 3.5

326.2 2.3

330.5 1.3

336.2 1.7

344.4 2.5

352.7 2.4

356.4 1.0

361.8 1.5

368.0 1.7

379.5 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

251.7 1.7

258.0 2.5

257.0 -0.4

247.5 -3.7

249.7 0.9

259.9 4.1

266.5 2.6

271.9 2.0

272.4 0.2

270.2 -0.8

268.4 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

99.3 0.3

100.8 1.5

100.9 0.1

93.4 -7.4

93.8 0.4

94.3 0.6

95.5 1.3

96.3 0.8

96.5 0.2

96.0 -0.5

95.7 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 -1.3

34.0 -0.2

33.9 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.6 7.4

33.6 -8.2

33.8 0.4

32.8 -2.7

32.0 -2.6

31.5 -1.7

31.2 -0.9

287.2 1.0

291.2 1.4

291.2 0.0

284.5 -2.3

278.7 -2.0

279.9 0.4

275.5 -1.6

274.5 -0.4

275.1 0.2

276.3 0.4

277.8 0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

248214.9

252027.7

245258.7

235915.7

239455.5

242351.2

245649.2

251400.1

259628.0

268188.4

276083.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5427.3 0.3

5429.3 0.0

5462.0 0.6

5516.5 1.0

5592.6 1.4

5674.8 1.5

5752.1 1.4

5822.6 1.2

5894.9 1.2

5971.5 1.3

6051.5 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2746.8 2.7

2809.4 2.3

2851.1 1.5

2830.5 -0.7

2876.2 1.6

2909.1 1.1

2926.6 0.6

2952.0 0.9

2968.4 0.6

2992.6 0.8

3022.3 1.0

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

3.6

4.0

6.0

9.9

11.5

10.9

9.3

9.3

8.8

8.0

7.4

32017.6 15835.0 16183.0

14691.2 7636.7 7055.0

7438.3 3536.4 3902.0

3488.3 2220.9 1267.0

5064.4 3263.8 1801.0

7811.3 4256.0 3555.0

12571.3 6146.1 6425.0

17312.4 9269.6 8043.0

25436.3 14866.0 10570.0

33726.6 20083.7 13643.0

38868.7 22270.1 16599.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

252.7 2.5 114.3 138.4

255.4 3.7 115.4 140

257.9 4 116.7 141.2

259.9 3.9 117.9 142

262.4 3.9 119.1 143.4

264.9 3.7 120.3 144.6

267.6 3.8 121.7 145.9

271.8 4.6 123.2 148.6

275 4.8 124.7 150.3

278.6 5.2 126.3 152.3

282 5.4 128 154

285.8 5.2 129.7 156.1

289.1 5.1 131.3 157.8

292.4 5 132.9 159.5

295.9 4.9 134.6 161.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

219.5 1.1

220.8 2.5

222.1 2.5

223 2.4

224.7 2.4

225.8 2.3

227.2 2.3

229.8 3

231.5 3

233.6 3.5

235.5 3.7

237.7 3.5

239.4 3.4

241.2 3.3

243.1 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

44 38.2

44.3 38.3

44.6 38.4

44.8 38.5

45.1 38.6

45.4 38.7

45.7 38.8

46.3 39.2

46.7 39.3

47.2 39.6

47.6 39.8

48.1 40

48.5 40.2

48.9 40.3

49.3 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51 1.9

51.4 2.4

51.6 2.3

52 2.5

52.3 2.5

52.6 2.4

52.9 2.5

53.3 2.6

53.7 2.7

54.1 2.8

54.5 2.9

54.9 3

55.3 3

55.7 3

56.1 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2225.7 1

2233.5 1.2

2245.1 1.5

2255.2 1.7

2263.8 1.7

2273.4 1.8

2284.5 1.8

2296.4 1.8

2308.8 2

2321.4 2.1

2335.8 2.2

2348.6 2.3

2360.6 2.2

2373.1 2.2

2386.4 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

73.6 0.8

73.8 2.4

74.3 2.5

74.7 2.2

75.2 2.2

75.5 2.2

75.8 1.9

76 1.8

76.4 1.5

76.8 1.7

77.1 1.8

77.4 1.8

77.6 1.6

77.7 1.2

77.8 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2152.1 1

2159.6 1.2

2170.8 1.4

2180.5 1.7

2188.6 1.7

2197.9 1.8

2208.8 1.8

2220.4 1.8

2232.4 2

2244.7 2.1

2258.6 2.3

2271.3 2.3

2283.1 2.3

2295.4 2.3

2308.6 2.2

82 -2.9

82.1 -1.8

82.3 -2.2

82.9 1

84.3 2.8

86.2 5

88.8 8

91.9 10.8

95.3 13

98.9 14.7

103.1 16

107.3 16.7

111.2 16.7

114.9 16.1

118.2 14.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

514.1 1.9

517.5 2.1

521.9 2.9

525 2.6

527.2 2.5

530.3 2.5

532.4 2

533.5 1.6

535.1 1.5

537.1 1.3

539.4 1.3

541.1 1.4

542.9 1.5

545.1 1.5

547.8 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

134.4 285.9 92.1

135.2 287.3 93.1

136.4 289.6 94

137.6 290.5 94.9

138.4 290.9 95.8

139.5 291.9 96.7

140.3 292.3 97.5

140.9 291.8 98.3

141.6 291.8 99.2

142.5 292 99.9

143.4 292.4 100.7

144.2 292.4 101.6

144.7 292.7 102.4

145.4 293.3 103.1

146.1 294.3 103.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

41.4 -0.9

41.3 0.2

41.4 0.4

41.7 1.1

42.6 2.9

43.3 4.8

43.3 4.6

43.1 3.3

42.9 0.9

42.9 -0.8

43.1 -0.5

43.6 1.1

43.8 1.9

43.8 2.1

43.8 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

150.2 -1.2

150.5 -0.2

151 0.7

151.6 0.9

151.8 1.1

152 1

152 0.7

152 0.3

152.1 0.2

152.2 0.2

152.5 0.3

152.8 0.5

153.1 0.7

153.5 0.8

153.6 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

342.1 1.4

343.4 2

346 2.3

349 3.1

351.5 2.7

354.2 3.1

358.5 3.6

363.2 4.1

369 5

375.5 6

382 6.6

387.1 6.6

391.4 6.1

395.6 5.4

400.2 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

352.1 3.2

353.2 2.3

354.8 1.3

355.3 1.2

356 1.1

356.5 1

357.7 0.8

360 1.3

361.5 1.6

362.2 1.6

363.4 1.6

364.6 1.3

366.8 1.4

369 1.9

371.6 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

265.4 1.7

267.8 1.3

269.6 3.6

271 3

271.8 2.4

272.1 1.6

272.7 1.2

273.2 0.8

272.8 0.4

272.1 0

271.5 -0.4

271.2 -0.7

270.3 -0.9

269.7 -0.9

269.7 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.3 1.1

95.6 1.9

95.9 0.8

96.2 0.9

96.2 0.9

96.3 0.7

96.4 0.5

96.5 0.3

96.6 0.4

96.6 0.3

96.3 -0.1

96.2 -0.3

96 -0.5

95.9 -0.7

95.7 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 3.3

33.6 0.5

33.4 -2.6

33.2 -2.7

33 -2.7

32.7 -2.7

32.5 -2.8

32.3 -2.7

32.1 -2.6

31.9 -2.5

31.7 -2.3

31.6 -2.1

31.5 -1.8

31.4 -1.6

31.3 -1.3

275.7 -1.6

274.8 -1.6

274.6 -1.6

274.6 -0.8

274.4 -0.5

274.4 -0.2

274.5 0

274.7 0

274.9 0.2

275.2 0.3

275.5 0.4

275.8 0.4

276.1 0.4

276.5 0.5

276.8 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

245211 245998 247445 248818 250352 252149 254282 256273 258435 260649 263156 265221 267172 269189 271171

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5743.2 1.4

5761.7 1.3

5779 1.3

5796.5 1.3

5813.8 1.2

5831.3 1.2

5848.9 1.2

5866.8 1.2

5885.4 1.2

5904.3 1.3

5923.3 1.3

5942.4 1.3

5961.6 1.3

5981.1 1.3

6001 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2922.3 0.1

2932.8 1

2940.2 1.3

2945.1 1.2

2949.8 0.9

2954.1 0.7

2959.1 0.6

2962.5 0.6

2965.9 0.5

2970.4 0.6

2974.7 0.5

2980.7 0.6

2988.9 0.8

2996.9 0.9

3003.9 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.3

8.1

7.9

7.7

12253 5918 6335

13487 6152 7335

14053 6559 7494

14809 7257 7551

16111 8346 7765

18339 10106 8233

19990 11369 8622

21983 12543 9440

24181 14046 10135

26683 15776 10906

28899 17099 11799

31173 18470 12703

33092 19721 13371

34712 20743 13969

35930 21401 14529

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


Naples - Marco Island

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 5.2 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 54.5, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of 51.6. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.9 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 2.0 percent, the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 14,948.26 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 321,520 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,631 in June 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,662 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Collier County Public Schools – 5,365 employees • Naples Community Hospital – 3,007 employees • Publix Super Market, Inc – 2,214 employees

Employment growth is expected to average 2.7 percent each year. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 9.5 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 6.1 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.6 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline this quarter at -1.4 percent.

• Wal-Mart – 1,547 employees • Marriott Corporation – 743 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc – 760 employees • Ritz Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Fifth Third Bank – 733 employees • Naples Grande Resort – 605 employees Source: Enterprise Florida, Inc., 2011

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Tamiami Ford in East Naples undergoes $3 million makeover

• The Naples auto dealership experienced its first remodel since 1984. The owners added an additional sales floor, upgrades in software, and a new stainless steel façade. It also includes an “updated used car center,” a space for refurbished cars, a carwash, and a better body shop. • The software allows the company to automatically send electronic copies of important loan documents and maintenance reminders.

• The upturn in auto sales stimulated the remodel process. The owners said that they believe the remodel has helped business overall. Source: Naples News, January 23, 2012

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Naples - Marco Island

Three Collier fire districts asking voters for higher tax rate to alleviate budget woes • Golden Gate fire officials are requesting voters to favor a referendum to raise each district’s maximum tax rate. • This would allow fire districts to regain lost revenue because of deflated property values, debt services, and capital projects. Both the Golden Gate and Immokalee districts have already requested help in the past decade.

• The proposed tax rate cap would last five years, bidding for an increase from $1.50 per $1000 taxable value to $2.75. Source: Naples News, January 23, 2012

Collier County commissioners approve Orangetree expansion • A debated community in northern Naples will be adding at least 1,000 homes, an expansion noted as a “fivefold increase in commercial space.”

• Orangetree Planned Unit Development may lead to more development, such as grocery and drug stores, near the 2,100-acre area.

• During the meeting, commissioners agreed to increase the settlement from 2,100 home allowance to 3,150 homes. Also, commercial space will increase from 60,000 sq. ft. to 332,000 sq. ft. Construction is expected to start in two years. Source: Naples News, February 14, 2012

Improvements getting under way for Collier Boulevard interchange at I-75 • APAC Southeast is the lead contractor for the renovation of interchange at Collier Boulevard near Alligator Alley, at the cost of $2.2 million. • The Florida Department of Transportation (DOT) cited the reason for the construction of additional lanes on the ramp as “a safety issue.” It should improve the southbound off-ramp, which has 11,500 vehicles daily.

• The final project will feature three leftturn lanes and two right-turn lanes on the southbound ramp. Two left- and two right- turn lanes will help traffic on the northbound offramp. Source: Naples News, February 26, 3012

New Naples children’s museum a hit: ‘We need this for the kids’ • Golisano Children’s Museum of Naples features many new exhibits for people of all ages. The two-story, 30,000 sq. ft. institution registered 1,000 members. Annual passes to the museum cost $125 for two adults and all of the children in their family.

• The museum features an interactive news room. There are manmade hills constructed to allow children to roll down them. There is also a maze that replicates the Everglades, featuring facts and pictures of wildlife in English and Spanish. The maze leads to an immense banyan tree. • Another section features forensic and fashion exhibits, as well as a library. There is also a play place for toddlers. Source: Naples News, February 26, 2012

Where does your garden grow? Local residents look to start community gardens • A Collier County resident is leading the effort to build a community garden. She is looking to fund all garden necessities, including seeds, plants, garden plots, water and fertilizer. She hopes to educate the community as well.

• The garden will need a water source and a tool shed supplied with fertilizer and tools.

• Organizers plan to target low-income families, allowing them to farm their own plot to combat the hardships of rising food prices. Source: Naples News, March 12, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


Naples - Marco Island Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0

56

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


Naples - Marco Island

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.1 14.0 6.0 13.1

19.9 4.2 6.1 13.8

20.2 1.1 5.6 14.6

18.3 -9.3 5.1 13.2

18.7 2.5 5.2 13.6

19.5 4.3 5.3 14.3

20.3 4.2 5.5 14.9

21.3 4.7 5.8 15.5

22.6 6.1 6.1 16.5

24.0 6.0 6.5 17.4

25.6 6.7 7.0 18.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 11.0

18.9 1.5

18.5 -2.1

16.7 -9.5

16.9 0.7

17.2 1.8

17.6 2.7

18.2 3.2

19.0 4.4

19.8 4.3

20.8 5.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

61.2 59.6

63.4 60.1

63.6 58.4

57.3 52.5

58.0 52.2

59.6 52.4

61.3 53.1

63.1 53.9

65.5 55.0

67.5 55.8

69.8 56.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 1.8

46.8 4.2

46.0 -1.7

45.5 -1.1

46.7 2.6

48.2 3.1

49.3 2.4

50.7 2.8

52.3 3.1

53.9 3.2

55.6 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

132.7 5.4

129.6 -2.3

121.0 -6.6

110.8 -8.5

109.7 -1.0

108.7 -0.9

110.4 1.5

113.5 2.8

117.0 3.1

120.8 3.3

124.6 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 3.7

3.3 -1.3

3.0 -9.7

2.6 -11.2

2.4 -7.2

2.4 -2.2

2.4 2.5

2.5 3.0

2.6 2.7

2.6 2.2

2.7 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

129.4 5.4

126.3 -2.3

118.1 -6.5

108.1 -8.4

107.3 -0.8

106.3 -0.9

107.9 1.5

110.9 2.8

114.4 3.1

118.1 3.3

121.9 3.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 17.7

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -27.8

9.0 -13.4

8.9 -1.3

8.8 -1.4

9.0 2.3

9.9 10.1

11.2 13.5

12.3 10.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.5 1.0

24.2 -1.3

23.0 -5.0

21.2 -7.7

21.2 -0.1

20.6 -2.9

20.9 1.6

21.6 3.3

22.1 2.5

22.8 2.9

23.5 3.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.5

3.1 16.7 1.5

3.0 16.7 1.5

2.7 16.3 1.5

2.7 16.5 1.6

2.8 17.0 1.6

2.9 17.3 1.7

3.0 17.7 1.8

3.2 18.1 1.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 3.2

1.8 -5.0

1.8 -1.0

1.6 -8.9

1.6 -3.0

1.5 -5.4

1.5 2.0

1.6 4.2

1.6 2.2

1.7 3.8

1.7 3.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 5.7

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -9.8

6.6 -0.3

6.4 -2.6

6.5 0.8

6.6 2.8

6.8 1.8

6.9 1.7

6.9 1.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 4.1

12.6 -7.7

12.0 -4.6

11.5 -4.2

11.9 3.6

12.3 2.9

12.5 1.6

13.1 4.9

13.9 6.1

14.7 5.8

15.4 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 5.8

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.3

17.0 2.3

17.2 0.8

17.5 2.2

17.9 2.3

18.4 2.9

18.9 2.5

19.5 3.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 1.8

23.3 4.8

22.8 -2.0

21.0 -8.2

20.9 -0.4

20.5 -1.8

21.3 3.9

21.9 2.7

22.1 0.9

22.1 0.2

22.2 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 1.9

6.0 3.1

6.0 0.4

5.7 -5.2

5.6 -0.9

5.6 -1.0

5.6 1.3

5.8 2.8

5.9 2.0

6.0 1.1

6.0 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.0

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1.2

0.8 14.4

0.7 -11.3

0.7 -2.8

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.1

0.7 -0.2

0.7 0.5

12.7 3.4

13.3 4.5

13.2 -0.3

12.9 -2.8

12.7 -1.0

12.8 0.7

12.7 -0.9

12.9 1.1

13.1 1.7

13.3 1.8

13.6 2.0

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

15960.4

15651.7

14641.8

13752.3

13977.7

13974.1

14182.8

14596.9

15184.8

15828.6

16463.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

312.6 1.6

314.7 0.7

316.8 0.7

319.1 0.7

323.0 1.2

327.4 1.4

331.8 1.3

337.4 1.7

344.9 2.2

354.9 2.9

366.3 3.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

150.7 4.6

150.8 0.0

148.1 -1.8

143.7 -2.9

144.6 0.6

141.8 -1.9

145.1 2.3

150.5 3.7

154.8 2.9

158.6 2.5

162.5 2.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.0

4.2

6.8

10.8

12.0

10.8

9.6

9.8

9.5

8.8

8.3

4474.2 3066.9 1407.0

1985.9 1165.7 820.0

967.3 669.6 298.0

836.0 634.3 202.0

1197.5 803.0 394.0

1304.1 950.7 353.0

1697.5 1023.6 674.0

2604.7 1499.5 1105.0

3864.8 2336.7 1528.0

5007.1 2999.7 2007.0

5591.8 3190.0 2402.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


Naples - Marco Island

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.2 3.3 5.4 14.8

20.5 5.2 5.5 15

20.8 5.3 5.6 15.2

20.9 5 5.7 15.3

21.2 4.8 5.7 15.4

21.4 4.5 5.8 15.6

21.7 4.6 5.9 15.8

22.1 5.8 6 16.1

22.4 6 6.1 16.3

22.8 6.2 6.2 16.6

23.1 6.3 6.3 16.8

23.4 5.9 6.4 17.1

23.8 6 6.5 17.3

24.1 6 6.6 17.5

24.5 6.2 6.7 17.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 2

17.7 4

17.9 3.8

18 3.5

18.1 3.3

18.3 3

18.4 3.1

18.7 4.3

18.9 4.2

19.1 4.5

19.3 4.6

19.5 4.1

19.7 4.3

19.9 4.3

20.1 4.5

61 53

61.7 53.3

62.2 53.6

62.5 53.6

62.9 53.8

63.3 54

63.8 54.2

64.8 54.8

65.2 54.9

65.8 55.2

66.2 55.3

66.8 55.6

67.3 55.7

67.7 55.8

68.2 56.1

49.1 2.2

49.5 2.8

49.9 2.7

50.2 2.8

50.5 2.8

50.9 2.8

51.3 2.8

51.6 2.9

52.1 3

52.5 3.1

52.9 3.2

53.3 3.2

53.7 3.2

54.1 3.2

54.6 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

110 1.2

110.8 3

111.6 2.4

112.2 2.8

113 2.8

113.8 2.8

114.7 2.9

115.7 3.1

116.5 3.1

117.4 3.1

118.3 3.1

119.2 3.1

120.2 3.2

121.3 3.4

122.3 3.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 1

2.4 3.2

2.5 3.2

2.5 3

2.5 3

2.5 3.1

2.5 2.9

2.6 2.9

2.6 2.5

2.6 2.7

2.6 2.8

2.6 2.6

2.6 2.5

2.6 2.1

2.7 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

107.5 1.2

108.3 3

109.1 2.4

109.8 2.8

110.5 2.8

111.3 2.7

112.2 2.9

113.1 3.1

113.9 3.1

114.8 3.1

115.7 3.1

116.6 3.1

117.6 3.2

118.6 3.4

119.7 3.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 -2.8

8.9 1.3

8.8 -0.3

8.8 2

8.9 1.5

9 1.4

9.2 4.3

9.4 7.1

9.7 9.4

10 11.2

10.3 12.6

10.7 13

11 13.6

11.4 14

11.7 13.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 0.9

21 2.4

21.2 3.4

21.3 3.2

21.5 3.4

21.7 3.5

21.8 3.1

21.9 2.9

22 2.5

22.2 2.2

22.3 2.2

22.5 2.4

22.6 2.7

22.8 3

23.1 3.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 16.4 1.5

2.7 16.5 1.6

2.7 16.7 1.6

2.8 16.8 1.6

2.8 16.9 1.6

2.8 17 1.6

2.9 17.2 1.7

2.9 17.2 1.7

2.9 17.2 1.7

2.9 17.3 1.7

3 17.4 1.7

3 17.5 1.7

3 17.6 1.8

3.1 17.7 1.8

3.1 17.9 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 1.1

1.5 6.5

1.5 1

1.5 1.9

1.6 3.7

1.6 5.7

1.6 5.6

1.6 4.7

1.6 2.4

1.6 0.7

1.6 1

1.7 2.7

1.7 3.8

1.7 4.4

1.7 4.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 0.9

6.5 1.7

6.5 2.4

6.6 2.7

6.6 3

6.7 2.9

6.7 2.7

6.7 2.1

6.7 1.9

6.8 1.8

6.8 1.7

6.8 1.5

6.9 1.7

6.9 1.8

6.9 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 0.6

12.5 3.7

12.6 3.1

12.8 4.5

13 4.6

13.1 5.1

13.3 5.5

13.6 5.7

13.8 6

14 6.4

14.2 6.1

14.3 5.8

14.6 5.8

14.8 5.8

15 5.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 2.4

17.6 2.6

17.7 1.9

17.8 2.2

17.9 2.3

18 2.3

18.1 2.2

18.3 2.8

18.4 2.8

18.5 2.9

18.6 3

18.7 2.4

18.8 2.4

19 2.6

19.1 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 4.3

21.4 6.9

21.6 4.3

21.7 3.6

21.8 3.1

21.9 2.2

22 1.8

22.1 1.6

22.1 1.1

22.1 0.7

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.1

22.1 0.1

22.1 0.2

22.1 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.6 1.2

5.6 1

5.7 2.9

5.7 3.1

5.8 2.9

5.8 2.7

5.8 2.4

5.9 2.2

5.9 2.3

5.9 2.1

5.9 1.6

5.9 1.3

6 1.1

6 1

6 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 3.2

0.7 -7.3

0.7 -2.8

0.7 -2

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.3

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -1.1

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.1

0.7 0.2

12.7 -1.6

12.7 0.6

12.7 -0.6

12.8 0.5

12.8 0.9

12.9 1.4

12.9 1.7

13 1.7

13.1 1.8

13.1 1.7

13.2 1.7

13.2 1.9

13.3 1.8

13.3 1.9

13.4 1.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

14145

14223

14320

14408

14525

14651

14804

14955

15103

15255

15426

15577

15743

15916

16078

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

331.2 1.3

332.3 1.3

333.6 1.4

335 1.5

336.6 1.6

338.2 1.8

339.9 1.9

341.8 2

343.8 2.2

345.9 2.3

348.2 2.5

350.6 2.6

353.5 2.8

356.3 3

359.2 3.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

144.5 1.5

145.9 4

147.3 4

148.6 4

149.9 3.7

151.1 3.6

152.3 3.4

153.5 3.2

154.3 3

155.3 2.8

156.2 2.5

157.1 2.4

158.1 2.5

159.2 2.5

160.1 2.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

9.6

9.7

9.8

9.9

9.9

9.8

9.8

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.2

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.6

1664 1009 655

1758 1010 748

1909 1050 859

2145 1177 968

2434 1357 1076

2807 1641 1167

3033 1823 1210

3337 1999 1339

3690 2226 1464

4054 2475 1579

4378 2647 1731

4683 2803 1880

4932 2964 1968

5141 3089 2053

5272 3144 2129

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Oc a l a

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.1 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at 29.4. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage levels of the MSAs, at 40.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.9 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 7,143.00 (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 331,298 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 133,035 in June 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.6% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 16,774 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County Public Schools – 5,875 employees • State of Florida – 2,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,481 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,500 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center and West Marion Community Hospital – 1,300 • Publix Supermarkets, Inc. – 1,275 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees • City of Ocala – 942 employees • Marion County Sheriff’s Office – 885 employees Source: Marion County Public Schools

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 11.1 percent, the highest of the researched areas.

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.9 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 5.5 percent. The third ranked is the Education and Health Services sector at 2.4 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors show the lowest growth in Ocala, with 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively. No sectors are expected to show negative growth.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Schools lose $2.4M in state funds

• Due to the state’s financial woes, the Marion County School District is unable to access $2.4M in previously accrued Public Education Capital Outlay (PECO) funds.

• The district is getting $23.8 million this year, approximately half what it received four years ago, due to cuts in tax rates and reduced revenue due to the recession. • The current level of funding is only enough to allow the district to cover recurring costs, and most major and minor repairs have been postponed, leaving $259.6 million worth of unfunded projects of the next five years. Source: Ocala.com, January 19, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


Oc a l a

Lockheed wins big in local contract

• Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman Corp. announced a $181 million U.S. Army contract to develop a new, advanced radar system to be used with the military’s Apache helicopter.

• Much of the work will be done at Lockheed’s Ocala plant, providing job security to individuals there, as the company is downsizing in other locations. The company plans to sell the equipment to Taiwan.

Source: Ocala.com, January 6, 2012

‘Power Plant’ business incubator goes online

• Marion County opened its first business incubator on Friday, February 10, with the intention of becoming a part of downtown Ocala’s “innovation hub.”

• The incubator will focus on high-wage industries such as software, web development, and other technologies.

• The incubator, which could eventually house 15 to 20 businesses, will provide services to help startups acquire business knowledge necessary to be successful. Source: Ocala.com, February 10, 2012

Canadian businessman has become county’s thirdlargest land holder • Canadian-based businessman Frank Stronach has increased his holdings in Marion County six-fold over the past two years, owning over 29,000 acres. Walt Disney World in Orlando encompasses approximately 25,000 acres.

• Stronach plans to use the land to create a cattle ranch with tens of thousands of grass-fed, hormone-free cattle for beef production. • Creating the ranch and manning a planned meat processing plant will help create jobs and stimulate the local economy, Stronach says.

Source: Ocala.com, February 4, 2012

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Oc a l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

8000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 5500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

5000.0 4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

1

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Ocala Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


Oc a l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4

10.4 2.0 3.7 6.7

9.8 -5.4 3.4 6.4

10.2 3.7 3.3 6.8

10.7 5.0 3.4 7.3

11.1 4.2 3.5 7.6

11.6 4.6 3.7 7.9

12.3 5.8 3.9 8.4

13.0 5.8 4.2 8.8

13.8 6.4 4.4 9.4

9.4 8.7

9.6 2.8

9.5 -1.2

9.0 -5.6

9.1 1.9

9.4 2.5

9.6 2.7

9.9 3.1

10.3 4.1

10.8 4.1

11.3 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

30.3 29.5

31.2 29.5

31.4 28.8

29.6 27.1

30.7 27.6

32.1 28.2

33.2 28.7

34.1 29.2

35.3 29.6

36.3 30.0

37.6 30.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.5 7.3

34.9 1.2

35.9 2.8

36.1 0.6

36.7 1.7

37.6 2.4

38.5 2.3

39.5 2.7

40.7 3.0

42.0 3.1

43.3 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

106.2 4.6

106.8 0.6

101.9 -4.6

93.2 -8.6

90.5 -2.9

90.2 -0.3

91.5 1.4

93.7 2.4

96.3 2.8

99.2 3.0

102.0 2.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 -0.6

9.6 -3.0

8.3 -13.9

6.7 -19.3

6.4 -3.4

6.4 -0.2

6.6 2.5

6.7 2.3

6.9 1.9

7.0 1.4

7.0 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

96.3 5.1

97.2 1.0

93.6 -3.7

86.5 -7.6

84.0 -2.8

83.7 -0.4

84.9 1.4

87.0 2.4

89.4 2.8

92.2 3.1

95.0 3.0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 17.1

11.6 -7.6

9.6 -17.0

7.3 -24.3

6.3 -14.0

6.0 -4.6

5.7 -4.5

5.9 3.8

6.7 13.4

7.8 15.2

8.6 10.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.7

22.7 -4.5

20.5 -9.6

19.9 -3.1

20.1 1.3

20.5 1.9

21.1 2.9

21.5 1.9

22.0 2.3

22.6 2.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.7 2.9

3.5 14.6 2.5

3.3 14.2 2.3

3.3 14.3 2.5

3.4 14.4 2.6

3.5 14.8 2.7

3.5 14.9 2.9

3.7 15.2 3.0

3.8 15.5 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 -1.9

2.0 -7.2

1.9 -3.1

1.7 -11.9

1.5 -10.4

1.4 -4.4

1.4 -0.8

1.5 3.6

1.5 1.5

1.5 3.0

1.6 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 6.1

6.0 3.6

5.9 -0.6

5.1 -13.3

4.1 -20.0

4.1 -1.0

4.2 2.7

4.3 2.3

4.3 1.3

4.4 1.2

4.4 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 4.1

8.5 -8.3

8.1 -4.6

7.7 -5.0

7.5 -3.2

7.6 1.0

7.9 4.1

8.3 4.8

8.8 6.3

9.4 6.8

9.9 5.8

12.7 5.8

13.3 4.8

13.5 1.5

12.9 -4.3

13.4 3.9

13.9 3.4

14.2 2.6

14.5 2.2

14.9 2.6

15.2 2.2

15.7 3.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 4.8

10.6 9.5

10.4 -2.1

10.0 -3.8

9.9 -1.2

9.8 -0.3

10.3 4.7

10.6 2.5

10.6 0.8

10.6 0.0

10.7 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 1.9

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.6

3.6 -7.6

3.6 0.5

3.6 -1.1

3.7 1.9

3.8 2.2

3.8 1.5

3.8 0.6

3.9 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.1

0.7 2.4

0.7 1.1

0.9 26.2

0.7 -23.2

0.7 5.8

0.7 -2.0

0.7 -1.6

0.7 -0.7

0.7 0.1

16.0 3.6

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.1

16.9 0.4

16.9 0.4

16.5 -2.4

16.2 -1.9

16.3 0.7

16.5 1.1

16.7 1.2

17.0 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

7294.5

7413.9

7169.0

6718.2

6679.4

6702.2

6800.2

6982.2

7251.3

7538.4

7812.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

317.3 4.0

325.9 2.7

329.9 1.2

330.9 0.3

331.4 0.2

332.3 0.3

334.8 0.8

340.5 1.7

348.7 2.4

358.4 2.8

368.4 2.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

132.6 4.6

136.2 2.7

138.1 1.3

135.6 -1.8

135.0 -0.4

132.9 -1.5

134.9 1.5

138.7 2.8

141.0 1.6

143.3 1.6

145.6 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

3.4

4.4

7.7

12.4

13.8

12.5

11.3

11.6

11.2

10.4

9.7

7184.2 6885.7 298.0

3164.2 2820.7 344.0

1211.3 1189.7 22.0

410.0 391.5 19.0

492.8 490.5 2.0

372.0 366.4 6.0

842.8 776.4 66.0

1828.2 1710.4 118.0

2979.6 2822.2 157.0

3732.6 3542.9 190.0

3939.5 3725.9 214.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Oc a l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11 3.7 3.5 7.5

11.2 4.7 3.6 7.6

11.3 5.1 3.6 7.7

11.4 4.8 3.7 7.8

11.6 4.6 3.7 7.8

11.7 4.4 3.8 7.9

11.8 4.4 3.8 8

12.1 5.5 3.9 8.2

12.2 5.7 3.9 8.3

12.4 5.9 4 8.4

12.5 6.1 4 8.5

12.7 5.7 4.1 8.7

12.9 5.8 4.2 8.8

13.1 5.8 4.2 8.9

13.3 6 4.3 9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 2.3

9.7 3.5

9.8 3.6

9.8 3.4

9.9 3.1

10 2.9

10 3

10.2 3.9

10.3 3.9

10.4 4.2

10.5 4.3

10.6 4

10.7 4.1

10.8 4.1

10.9 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33 28.7

33.4 28.9

33.7 29

33.8 29

34 29.1

34.2 29.2

34.5 29.3

34.9 29.5

35.1 29.6

35.4 29.7

35.6 29.8

35.9 29.9

36.2 30

36.4 30

36.7 30.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.3 2.1

38.6 2.7

38.8 2.6

39.1 2.7

39.4 2.7

39.6 2.7

39.9 2.8

40.2 2.8

40.5 2.9

40.8 3

41.2 3.1

41.5 3.1

41.8 3.1

42.1 3.1

42.4 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

91.2 1.6

91.7 1.3

92.3 1.8

92.8 2.2

93.4 2.4

94 2.5

94.6 2.6

95.3 2.7

95.9 2.7

96.6 2.8

97.3 2.9

98 2.9

98.8 3

99.5 3.1

100.3 3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 2.1

6.6 4

6.6 2.4

6.7 2.3

6.7 2.3

6.7 2.4

6.8 2.1

6.8 2

6.8 1.7

6.9 1.9

6.9 2

6.9 1.7

6.9 1.6

7 1.4

7 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

84.6 1.6

85.1 1.1

85.6 1.8

86.1 2.2

86.7 2.4

87.2 2.5

87.9 2.6

88.5 2.8

89.1 2.8

89.7 2.9

90.4 2.9

91.1 3

91.8 3.1

92.6 3.2

93.3 3.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -5.8

5.7 -4.4

5.7 -2.1

5.8 0.6

5.9 2.3

6 4.5

6.2 7.6

6.4 10.6

6.6 12.7

6.8 14.3

7.1 15.7

7.4 15.9

7.6 15.7

7.9 15.3

8.1 13.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 1.6

20.6 1.3

20.8 3.1

20.9 3

21 3.1

21.2 3

21.3 2.5

21.4 2.3

21.4 1.9

21.5 1.7

21.7 1.6

21.8 1.9

21.9 2.2

22.1 2.5

22.3 2.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 14.3 2.6

3.4 14.4 2.6

3.4 14.6 2.7

3.4 14.7 2.7

3.4 14.7 2.7

3.5 14.8 2.8

3.5 14.9 2.8

3.5 14.9 2.8

3.5 14.9 2.8

3.6 15 2.9

3.6 15 2.9

3.6 15.1 2.9

3.6 15.1 2.9

3.7 15.2 3

3.7 15.3 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 0.7

1.4 0.4

1.4 0.2

1.4 1.2

1.5 3.1

1.5 5

1.5 4.9

1.5 4

1.5 1.7

1.5 0

1.5 0.3

1.5 2

1.5 3

1.5 3.6

1.6 3.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 4.3

4.2 2.5

4.2 2

4.2 2.2

4.3 2.4

4.3 2.4

4.3 2.1

4.3 1.5

4.3 1.3

4.3 1.2

4.4 1.1

4.3 1

4.4 1.2

4.4 1.3

4.4 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 5.2

7.9 3.8

8 3.4

8.1 4.4

8.2 4.5

8.3 4.9

8.4 5.2

8.5 5.4

8.7 6.1

8.9 6.8

9 7

9.1 7

9.3 6.8

9.5 6.8

9.6 6.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 3

14.3 2.1

14.4 2.2

14.4 2.4

14.5 2.3

14.6 2.1

14.6 1.9

14.8 2.5

14.9 2.5

14.9 2.6

15 2.7

15.1 2.1

15.2 2.1

15.3 2.3

15.4 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 5.3

10.4 4.4

10.4 4.1

10.5 3.4

10.6 2.9

10.6 2.1

10.6 1.6

10.7 1.5

10.6 0.9

10.6 0.6

10.6 0.1

10.6 -0.1

10.6 0

10.6 0.1

10.7 0.2

3.7 2.5

3.7 1.3

3.7 2.4

3.7 2.5

3.7 2.4

3.8 2.1

3.8 1.9

3.8 1.6

3.8 1.7

3.8 1.5

3.8 1

3.8 0.8

3.8 0.6

3.8 0.5

3.8 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 16.6

0.7 7

0.7 -3.2

0.7 -2.5

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.1

0.7 -0.8

0.7 -0.5

0.7 -0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 -2.2

16.2 -2

16.2 -0.8

16.3 0.2

16.3 0.5

16.3 0.9

16.4 1

16.4 1.1

16.5 1.2

16.5 1.1

16.6 1.1

16.6 1.2

16.7 1.2

16.7 1.3

16.8 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6785.5

6811.2

6856.2

6897.1

6949.9

7006.4

7075.2

7144.9

7212.6

7283.9

7363.8

7432.4

7502.2

7575

7644

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

334.2 0.6

335.3 0.9

336.5 1.1

337.9 1.4

339.5 1.6

341.3 1.8

343.2 2

345.3 2.2

347.5 2.3

349.8 2.5

352.2 2.6

354.7 2.7

357.1 2.8

359.6 2.8

362.1 2.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

134.4 1.4

135.3 1.7

136.4 2.7

137.6 3.1

138.4 2.9

139.1 2.8

139.7 2.5

140.2 1.9

140.7 1.7

141.2 1.5

141.8 1.5

142.3 1.5

142.9 1.6

143.6 1.7

144.1 1.7

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.2

11.4

11.5

11.6

11.7

11.7

11.6

11.5

11.3

11.1

10.8

10.6

10.4

10.3

10.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

760 703 57

919 839 81

1072 980 92

1303 1200 103

1628 1514 115

2035 1911 124

2346 2217 129

2566 2425 141

2842 2689 153

3152 2989 164

3359 3186 173

3535 3349 186

3697 3508 190

3814 3624 190

3884 3692 193

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 4.8 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 31.9. Average annual wage growth will be 2.3 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 45.5. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 2.0 percent, the highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) . Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 101,198.78 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 8.5 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.3 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of –0.9 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,134,411 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 297,052 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,145,956 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 268,685 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 422,718 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,125,342 in June of 2011. • An unemployment rate of 10.4% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 117,244 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 21,483 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 21,349 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 17,521 employees • Universal Orlando – 14,300 employees • Orlando Health – 14,000 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 13,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 10,346 employees • Orange County Government – 7,818 employees • Sea World Parks and Entertainment – 7,000 Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and University of Central Florida’s Institutional Knowledge Management, 2011 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Old Amway Arena to be imploded after all

• Creative Village and city officials originally announced that the Amway Arena would be carefully dismantled. But now, after hiring a demolition contractor, they have decided to implode the 23-year-old previous home of the Orlando Magic.

• Workers are currently stripping asbestos from the Arena, as well as saving copper and aluminum. These proceeds will be given to the Nap Ford charter school next to the Amway.

• The workers are also planning to use the wrecked concrete as road bed. The area will be called Creative Village, with goals of establishing institutions, homes, commercial and retail space, offices, and parks, with a focus on digital media and high-tech companies. Source: The Orlando Sentinel, January 5, 2012


O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

SeaWorld Parks hires former Disney Cruise Line executive • Jim Heaney, past Walt Disney executive, will manage finance, procurement, planning and development, and other aspects at SeaWorld’s Orlando location.

• SeaWorld’s CEO said that his dynamic background will make a great addition to the company. He spent 17 years with Disney Cruise Line, but was later dismissed, along with other executives, due to financial errors when planning the Disney’s Aulani, valued at $850 million.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, January 20, 2012

Airport to bid out $16 million runway project

• Within the next year and a half, Orlando International Airport is looking to refurbish the 50 year old runway. • Stan Thornton, who oversees OIA, requested bids for engineering services. The Greater Orlando Aviation Authority is looking to rebuild it for the larger aircraft. It will be a necessity in the future. • The reconstruction could also add 400 jobs.

All-Star Weekend brings needed economic boost • NBA All-Star Weekend, an event hosted in various cities to highlight former and current all-stars of the league, was hosted in Orlando this year at the Amway Center. Big name celebrities also use the event for exposure.

• Though traffic was a downside, the visitors to Orlando were expected to inject $100 million into the Central Florida economy.

• Hotels, malls, restaurants, caterers, and roads were especially busy for All-Star Weekend, but it is just what Orlando needed. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 24, 2012

Disney’s Fantasy expected to create 500 jobs

• Disney’s new 130,000-ton cruise liner arrived in Port Canaveral this year. It is chartered to ship passengers on seven-day Caribbean adventures. • The Fantasy, along with Disney’s Dream is part of the company’s $1.8 billion two-ship addition. • This positive influence will generate 500 direct, indirect, and induced jobs, while offering 4,000 patrons per week a fourth Disney cruise option.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 6, 2012

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 24, 2012

Nemours to post 600 jobs this weekend

• Nemours Children’s Hospital is scheduled to open October 22 in Lake Nona’s Medical City. The Hospital predicted that it will hire 596 positions with another 100 supporting jobs. It is projected that the Hospital will pay $83.5 million in salaries and benefits by the end of 2013 • Jobs ranged from phone operators to doctors. The administrative positions have been heavily saturated with applications. The hospital is also in need of clerical workers, nurses, and more.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 24, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

110000.0

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1100.0

6.0%

1050.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0%

950.0

-3.0%

900.0

66

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

850.0

1.4

90000.0

8.0%

1150.0

1.2

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

-9.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5

73.4 5.0 45.5 27.9

75.5 2.8 45.3 30.1

71.5 -5.3 42.3 29.1

73.8 3.3 42.7 31.1

77.0 4.4 43.9 33.1

79.7 3.5 45.3 34.4

83.4 4.6 47.3 36.0

88.0 5.6 49.8 38.2

92.8 5.5 52.5 40.4

98.1 5.6 55.1 43.0

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.1 6.4

69.6 2.2

69.3 -0.4

65.5 -5.5

66.4 1.4

67.7 1.9

69.0 2.0

71.2 3.1

73.9 3.9

76.7 3.8

79.8 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.6 33.7

35.6 33.8

36.1 33.1

33.8 30.9

34.4 31.0

35.4 31.1

36.0 31.2

37.0 31.6

38.2 32.1

39.4 32.5

40.7 33.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.7 4.0

41.6 2.2

42.1 1.2

41.9 -0.5

42.5 1.3

43.1 1.6

43.9 1.9

44.9 2.2

46.1 2.5

47.3 2.6

48.5 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1063.9 4.0

1090.7 2.5

1072.7 -1.7

1006.3 -6.2

1001.5 -0.5

1013.4 1.2

1026.2 1.3

1049.6 2.3

1076.7 2.6

1105.8 2.7

1131.4 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

45.0 -2.2

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.5

37.5 -3.1

37.4 -0.4

37.9 1.4

39.0 2.9

39.8 2.2

40.5 1.6

40.7 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1018.9 4.3

1046.1 2.7

1029.9 -1.6

967.6 -6.0

963.9 -0.4

976.0 1.3

988.3 1.3

1010.6 2.2

1036.9 2.6

1065.3 2.7

1090.7 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

91.2 7.7

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.6 -25.0

47.7 -12.5

46.0 -3.7

44.9 -2.3

46.3 3.2

52.2 12.6

60.3 15.6

66.5 10.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

198.8 2.8

204.0 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186.1 -7.3

184.4 -0.9

185.7 0.7

188.6 1.5

193.7 2.7

197.6 2.0

202.1 2.3

206.8 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

46.2 122.3 30.3

47.2 123.7 33.0

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.6 30.1

38.3 116.4 29.7

38.0 117.6 30.1

38.1 118.0 31.3

39.4 120.4 32.5

40.6 121.6 33.6

42.0 123.2 34.8

43.2 125.1 36.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.8 4.2

26.8 3.7

26.3 -1.8

24.9 -5.5

23.8 -4.5

23.4 -1.5

23.6 0.7

24.4 3.5

24.8 1.6

25.5 2.7

25.9 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.1 4.8

68.9 1.1

67.6 -1.9

64.0 -5.4

63.3 -1.0

62.0 -2.1

62.3 0.5

63.3 1.6

64.0 1.1

64.8 1.3

65.2 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

173.1 7.2

181.3 4.7

177.3 -2.2

165.0 -6.9

163.9 -0.7

164.9 0.7

165.9 0.6

171.2 3.2

180.6 5.5

190.5 5.5

198.4 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

107.5 4.9

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.5 1.8

121.2 2.3

123.2 1.7

125.6 1.9

128.4 2.3

131.8 2.6

135.5 2.8

140.9 4.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

186.8 1.5

193.6 3.6

199.6 3.1

190.2 -4.7

195.6 2.8

207.0 5.9

214.2 3.5

218.6 2.1

219.7 0.5

218.9 -0.4

218.0 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

53.4 6.8

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48.0 -6.7

47.8 -0.4

48.0 0.4

48.3 0.8

49.1 1.6

49.9 1.6

50.1 0.5

50.2 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 -3.8

11.5 0.4

11.8 2.8

12.1 2.6

12.7 5.2

11.9 -6.7

12.0 1.0

11.7 -1.9

11.5 -1.8

11.4 -1.0

11.4 -0.1

102.7 3.8

106.2 3.4

105.9 -0.3

104.4 -1.4

103.7 -0.7

104.0 0.3

103.0 -0.9

103.7 0.7

104.9 1.1

106.1 1.2

107.4 1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

94913.6

98068.6

95986.4

92242.4

93894.0

95085.1

96232.8

98910.5

102793.4

106858.4

110417.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023.1 3.1

2061.1 1.9

2090.2 1.4

2116.0 1.2

2145.2 1.4

2177.6 1.5

2213.0 1.6

2254.1 1.9

2303.8 2.2

2357.2 2.3

2408.0 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1048.6 4.1

1091.4 4.1

1117.9 2.4

1109.9 -0.7

1121.8 1.1

1123.3 0.1

1132.3 0.8

1150.5 1.6

1169.5 1.7

1193.2 2.0

1219.4 2.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.1

3.7

5.8

10.2

11.4

10.3

9.0

8.9

8.4

7.6

7.0

30091.6 24392.0 5700.0

18024.5 12622.8 5402.0

10409.4 5569.8 4840.0

4491.1 3767.8 723.0

4992.9 4392.4 600.0

5965.1 4642.8 1322.0

7809.4 5948.2 1861.0

12256.5 8846.3 3410.0

18659.2 13868.7 4791.0

23645.0 17858.3 5787.0

25899.3 18967.2 6932.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

79.2 2.7 45 34.2

80.2 4.2 45.5 34.7

81.1 4.5 46 35.1

81.9 4.6 46.6 35.4

82.9 4.6 47.1 35.8

83.8 4.5 47.6 36.2

84.8 4.6 48.2 36.6

86.2 5.3 48.8 37.4

87.3 5.4 49.4 37.9

88.6 5.7 50.1 38.5

89.8 5.8 50.8 39

91.1 5.6 51.5 39.6

92.2 5.6 52.1 40.1

93.4 5.4 52.8 40.6

94.6 5.3 53.4 41.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.8 1.4

69.3 3

69.8 3.1

70.3 3.1

70.9 3.1

71.4 3

72 3.1

72.9 3.7

73.5 3.6

74.3 4

75 4.1

75.8 3.9

76.4 3.9

77 3.7

77.7 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.9 31.2

36.2 31.3

36.4 31.4

36.6 31.4

36.9 31.6

37.1 31.6

37.3 31.7

37.8 31.9

38 32

38.3 32.1

38.6 32.3

39 32.4

39.2 32.5

39.5 32.6

39.8 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 1.7

44.1 2.1

44.3 2.1

44.6 2.2

44.8 2.2

45 2.2

45.3 2.3

45.6 2.4

45.9 2.5

46.2 2.6

46.5 2.6

46.8 2.7

47.1 2.7

47.4 2.7

47.7 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1023.4 0.9

1028.3 1.7

1034.8 2

1040.8 2.2

1046.2 2.2

1052.1 2.3

1059.1 2.4

1065.8 2.4

1072.7 2.5

1080.2 2.7

1088.1 2.7

1095.6 2.8

1102.3 2.8

1109.1 2.7

1116 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37.8 0.1

38 2.6

38.3 3.3

38.6 3

38.9 3

39.1 3

39.3 2.6

39.5 2.4

39.7 2.1

40 2.1

40.2 2.2

40.3 2.1

40.5 1.9

40.6 1.5

40.6 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

985.6 0.9

990.3 1.7

996.4 1.9

1002.2 2.2

1007.3 2.2

1013 2.3

1019.8 2.3

1026.3 2.4

1033 2.5

1040.3 2.7

1048 2.8

1055.3 2.8

1061.8 2.8

1068.6 2.7

1075.4 2.6

44.9 -4

44.9 -1

44.9 -2.2

45.1 0.1

45.7 1.8

46.6 3.9

48 6.9

49.5 9.8

51.3 12.1

53 13.8

55 14.6

57.3 15.6

59.4 15.9

61.4 15.7

63.2 15

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

187.7 0.7

189 2.2

190.7 3

192 2.8

193 2.9

194.4 2.9

195.4 2.5

196.1 2.1

197 2.1

198.1 1.9

199.4 2

200.4 2.2

201.5 2.3

202.7 2.3

204.1 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

37.9 117.4 31.1

38.2 118 31.4

38.5 119.1 31.7

38.9 119.7 32

39.2 120 32.3

39.5 120.7 32.6

39.8 121.1 33

40.1 121.1 33.2

40.4 121.4 33.5

40.8 121.8 33.8

41.1 122.2 34

41.5 122.5 34.3

41.8 122.9 34.6

42.1 123.4 34.9

42.4 124.1 35.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 1

23.5 0.8

23.6 0.2

23.8 1

24.3 3

24.7 5.1

24.8 5.2

24.7 4

24.7 1.7

24.8 0.2

24.9 0.6

25.3 2.2

25.4 3

25.5 3.1

25.6 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.1 1.3

62.3 0

62.6 1.1

62.9 1.4

63.2 1.7

63.4 1.7

63.6 1.6

63.7 1.1

63.8 1

64.1 1

64.3 1.2

64.5 1.4

64.7 1.4

64.9 1.4

65 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

165.8 0

166.1 0.6

167.4 1.9

169 2.9

170.3 2.7

171.7 3.4

173.9 3.9

176.1 4.2

178.9 5

182.1 6

185.2 6.5

187.5 6.5

189.6 6

191.6 5.2

193.5 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

125.1 1.7

126 2.6

127 2.7

127.5 2.6

128.1 2.4

128.7 2.1

129.4 1.9

130.7 2.5

131.5 2.6

132.1 2.6

132.9 2.7

133.7 2.3

134.9 2.6

136 3

137.2 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

213.3 3.3

215.3 4

216.6 3.5

217.8 2.9

218.4 2.4

218.8 1.6

219.5 1.3

219.9 1

219.8 0.6

219.6 0.4

219.4 0

219.4 -0.3

218.9 -0.4

218.6 -0.5

218.7 -0.3

48.2 0.2

48.4 1.2

48.6 1.4

48.9 1.5

49 1.7

49.2 1.6

49.4 1.6

49.6 1.5

49.8 1.7

50 1.7

50.1 1.3

50.1 1.1

50.2 0.7

50.2 0.2

50.1 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12 3.7

12 1.2

11.9 -1.8

11.8 -1.9

11.8 -1.9

11.7 -2

11.7 -1.9

11.6 -2

11.6 -1.9

11.5 -1.8

11.5 -1.6

11.4 -1.4

11.4 -1.1

11.4 -0.8

11.4 -0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

103 -1

102.9 -0.7

103.1 -0.7

103.4 0.3

103.6 0.6

103.8 0.9

104.2 1

104.4 1

104.7 1.1

105 1.1

105.3 1.1

105.6 1.1

105.9 1.2

106.3 1.2

106.6 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

96028

96376

97021

97678

98420

99267 100278 101200 102208 103300 104465 105473 106398 107335 108228

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2208.1 1.6

2217.5 1.6

2227.3 1.7

2237.6 1.8

2248.3 1.8

2259.4 1.9

2271.2 2

2283.5 2.1

2296.5 2.1

2310.6 2.3

2324.5 2.3

2337.9 2.4

2350.8 2.4

2363.7 2.3

2376.4 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1129.8 0.5

1135.1 1.4

1139.9 1.8

1143.8 1.7

1148.1 1.6

1152.5 1.5

1157.7 1.6

1162.2 1.6

1166.8 1.6

1172 1.7

1177.2 1.7

1182.8 1.8

1189.6 2

1197.2 2.1

1203.1 2.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

9

9

9

9

9

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.5

8.3

8.1

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.3

7594 5827 1767

8104 5951 2153

8708 6251 2456

9710 6915 2795

11168 7977 3191

13317 9662 3655

14831 10832 3999

16315 11878 4437

17887 13195 4692

19559 14678 4881

20875 15723 5152

22147 16701 5445

23319 17634 5686

24262 18358 5904

24852 18740 6112

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.2 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 34.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Average annual wage levels should be at 52.2. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 17,174.42 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 543,376 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 262,750 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.8% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,398 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.6 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 9.7 percent, the third highest of the researched areas.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 7.1 percent growth annually. The Manufacturing sector and Professional and Business Services sector both follow with a 2.5 percent average annual growth rate. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -2.6 percent annually.

• Brevard County Schools – 8,535 employees • Harris Corporation – 6,391 employees • United Space Alliance – 6,300 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,000 employees • 45th Space Wing – 4,174 employees • Space Gateway Support – 3,000 employees • Brevard County – 2,500 employees • Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2,400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1,962 employees • NASA – 1,577 employees Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Extra money to beef up Brevard’s beaches

• Nearly $1 million in additional funds will be spent over the next three years to mitigate erosion along the north and south reaches of Brevard County’s shoreline.

• Brevard County Commissioners approved a contract that will match $362,910 from the State Dep with $413,536 from the county toward the project. Local funds are generated though the Brevard Tourist Development Commission through a 5% hotel-bed tax dedicated to beach improvements. • This is part of a 50-year beach renourishment effort along the north and south reaches to guard the state’s multibillion-dollar tourism economy. Source: Florida Today, January 11, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Tax breaks try to woo company’s 2,240 jobs

• State, county, and local officials are combining forces to attract an aerospace company to Titusville to develop rocket propulsion systems through proposed city tax breaks of $4.23 million over 10 years and Brevard County tax breaks of $4.08 million.

• Titusville’s current unemployment rate of 12.2% is a result of many laid off aerospace workers after the end of the space shuttle program, resulting in a large amount of qualified aerospace workers in the area.

• The project would have an estimated added payroll for the Brevard County economy of $97 million a year through 1,357 direct jobs and 883 spinoff jobs. Source: Florida Today, February 14, 2012

Florist blooming within Walmart

• Magic Dove Flower Shop, owned by Terry Black, is the first independent florist within any Walmart. • This represents an effort by Walmart to maximize floor space with “stores-within-astore” plans and is part of almost 400 in-store leases representing thousands of in-store businesses, including McDonald’s, Subway, financial institutions, and nail and hair salons.

• Black’s arrangement helps Walmart’s reputation for harming small businesses, but the exposure to more shoppers has not created huge profits because of the low prices Black must keep to compete with Walmart’s own floral arrangements. Source: Florida Today, February 12, 2012

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

Software firm eyes Melbourne

• A medical software firm from the Midwest is considering a space across the street from Melbourne City Hall for its new location, which will provide 190 high-paying jobs. • The company is seeking tax credits and contributions from Melbourne. In exchange Melbourne would gain a downtown company paying an average salary of $69,000. This translates to $13 million per year payroll and would also boost indirect job creation.

Source: Florida Today, February 13, 2012

MidairUSA hangars at Melbourne Airport clear for takeoff

• Melbourne City Council unanimously approved a special permit for Midair’s new hangar at Melbourne International Airport, which is key to the aviation maintenance company’s plans to hire more than 450 workers. • Midair currently has 81 employees at the Melbourne airport and the 450 new jobs will pay an average annual salary of $55,000.

Source: Florida Today, February 29, 2012


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

2.5

3

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

2

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5

19.7 4.5 9.5 10.2

20.2 2.3 9.5 10.7

19.4 -3.9 9.2 10.2

20.1 3.4 9.3 10.7

20.8 3.5 9.4 11.3

21.4 3.0 9.6 11.7

22.2 3.9 10.1 12.1

23.3 5.0 10.6 12.7

24.5 5.1 11.2 13.3

25.9 5.6 11.8 14.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 4.6

18.7 1.8

18.5 -1.0

17.8 -4.1

18.1 1.5

18.2 1.0

18.5 1.5

19.0 2.5

19.6 3.3

20.3 3.4

21.1 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.3 34.3

36.6 34.7

37.3 34.2

35.8 32.8

36.9 33.2

38.0 33.4

38.8 33.6

39.8 34.0

41.2 34.6

42.6 35.2

44.2 36.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.8 2.9

43.8 2.4

45.1 2.8

46.1 2.3

47.2 2.5

48.8 3.4

50.0 2.3

51.3 2.7

52.9 3.0

54.5 3.1

56.2 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

216.3 2.5

213.8 -1.2

207.4 -3.0

196.8 -5.1

194.2 -1.3

189.7 -2.3

190.1 0.2

193.8 2.0

197.9 2.1

202.3 2.2

206.7 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 2.7

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8.0

20.6 -5.8

20.2 -2.0

20.8 2.9

21.4 3.3

21.9 2.3

22.3 1.6

22.4 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

191.8 2.5

189.7 -1.1

183.6 -3.2

175.0 -4.7

173.7 -0.7

169.6 -2.4

169.3 -0.1

172.4 1.8

176.0 2.1

180.1 2.3

184.3 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 5.0

15.4 -15.0

13.0 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.6 -13.3

8.1 -5.6

7.9 -2.9

8.1 3.5

9.2 13.0

10.6 14.9

11.6 10.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.4 1.0

36.9 -1.5

35.5 -3.8

33.0 -6.8

32.7 -1.0

33.2 1.4

33.8 1.9

34.5 2.1

34.9 1.1

35.4 1.5

36.1 2.0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28.0 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.2 24.9 2.9

5.1 24.6 3.0

5.1 24.9 3.2

5.2 25.1 3.3

5.4 25.5 3.5

5.5 25.5 3.6

5.7 25.7 3.7

6.0 25.9 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 0.1

2.9 -2.6

2.9 2.3

3.0 4.0

2.8 -7.4

2.7 -4.8

2.7 0.9

2.8 3.4

2.8 1.2

2.9 2.8

3.0 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 2.4

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.8

7.7 -3.1

7.5 -1.7

7.6 0.4

7.7 1.8

7.8 0.8

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 3.6

36.8 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32.0 -1.2

28.4 -11.2

26.9 -5.2

27.9 3.8

29.4 5.3

31.1 5.8

32.6 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 3.1

29.3 4.0

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.9

32.0 2.5

32.5 1.5

33.1 1.9

33.6 1.5

34.2 1.9

34.7 1.5

35.6 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 3.3

22.8 1.5

21.9 -4.2

21.0 -4.0

20.9 -0.7

20.9 0.0

21.6 3.3

21.9 1.5

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -1.0

21.4 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -0.8

8.0 -1.1

7.9 -1.5

7.4 -5.7

7.8 4.6

8.0 2.5

8.0 0.8

8.1 1.4

8.2 0.7

8.2 -0.2

8.2 0.1

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.0

6.3 1.4

6.7 7.2

6.4 -4.7

6.2 -3.0

6.0 -2.9

5.9 -2.6

5.8 -1.8

5.7 -0.9

22.6 1.7

22.8 1.1

22.8 0.0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.9

22.0 -2.6

21.7 -1.5

21.7 0.3

21.9 0.6

22.0 0.7

22.2 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16945.9

16944.8

16530.9

16167.2

16400.7

16263.9

16379.2

16828.4

17436.7

18053.3

18626.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

535.7 1.0

539.9 0.8

542.2 0.4

542.4 0.1

543.9 0.3

546.5 0.5

551.3 0.9

557.7 1.2

565.9 1.5

575.6 1.7

585.1 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

262.5 1.6

263.9 0.5

268.4 1.7

267.6 -0.3

268.1 0.2

263.0 -1.9

263.1 0.1

266.4 1.2

269.5 1.2

272.5 1.1

275.3 1.0

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

72

3.2

4.2

6.4

10.1

11.5

11.3

10.3

10.2

9.6

8.9

8.3

5322.7 4389.5 933.0

2861.1 2219.5 642.0

1670.9 1284.2 387.0

976.7 870.1 107.0

1079.5 990.6 89.0

999.9 867.7 132.0

1319.1 1177.4 142.0

2458.5 2108.6 350.0

4102.4 3416.7 686.0

5243.3 4313.8 930.0

5651.2 4547.0 1104.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.3 2.2 9.6 11.7

21.5 3.9 9.7 11.8

21.7 4.3 9.8 11.9

21.9 4.1 9.9 12

22.1 4 10 12.1

22.3 3.8 10.2 12.2

22.6 3.8 10.3 12.3

22.9 4.7 10.4 12.5

23.2 4.9 10.6 12.6

23.5 5.1 10.7 12.8

23.7 5.2 10.8 12.9

24.1 4.9 11 13.1

24.4 5 11.1 13.2

24.6 5 11.3 13.4

25 5.2 11.4 13.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 0.9

18.6 2.7

18.7 2.8

18.8 2.7

18.9 2.5

19 2.3

19.2 2.3

19.4 3.1

19.5 3.1

19.7 3.4

19.8 3.5

20 3.3

20.2 3.4

20.3 3.3

20.5 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.6 33.5

39 33.7

39.3 33.8

39.5 33.9

39.7 34

40 34.1

40.2 34.2

40.8 34.5

41 34.5

41.4 34.7

41.7 34.8

42.1 35

42.4 35.1

42.7 35.2

43.1 35.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.8 2.1

50.2 2.7

50.5 2.6

50.8 2.7

51.2 2.7

51.5 2.7

51.9 2.8

52.3 2.8

52.7 2.9

53.1 3

53.5 3.1

53.9 3.1

54.3 3.1

54.7 3.1

55.1 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

189.6 -0.3

190.4 1

191.5 1.5

192.5 1.9

193.4 2

194.2 2

195.3 2

196.4 2.1

197.4 2.1

198.4 2.1

199.6 2.2

200.6 2.1

201.7 2.2

202.9 2.3

204.1 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 2.5

20.8 3.2

21 3.9

21.2 3.7

21.4 3.4

21.5 3.2

21.6 2.8

21.8 2.5

21.8 2.1

22 2.3

22.1 2.3

22.2 1.8

22.2 1.8

22.3 1.6

22.4 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

169 -0.6

169.6 0.7

170.5 1.2

171.2 1.7

172 1.8

172.7 1.9

173.7 1.9

174.7 2

175.5 2.1

176.4 2.1

177.5 2.2

178.4 2.2

179.5 2.3

180.6 2.4

181.7 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -2.8

7.9 -3

7.8 -2.3

7.9 0.4

8 2.1

8.2 4.3

8.4 7.3

8.7 10.2

9 12.4

9.3 14

9.7 15.3

10.1 15.5

10.4 15.4

10.7 15

11 13.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 1.6

33.8 1.3

34.1 2.4

34.3 2.2

34.4 2.3

34.6 2.3

34.7 1.8

34.8 1.5

34.8 1.1

34.9 0.9

35 0.8

35.1 1

35.3 1.4

35.5 1.7

35.7 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 25 3.3

5.2 25.1 3.4

5.3 25.3 3.4

5.3 25.4 3.4

5.3 25.4 3.4

5.4 25.5 3.5

5.4 25.6 3.5

5.5 25.5 3.5

5.5 25.5 3.5

5.5 25.5 3.6

5.6 25.5 3.6

5.6 25.6 3.6

5.7 25.6 3.7

5.8 25.7 3.7

5.8 25.8 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.7 1.2

2.7 2.7

2.7 0.2

2.7 1.1

2.8 2.9

2.8 4.8

2.8 4.7

2.8 3.7

2.8 1.4

2.8 -0.2

2.8 0.1

2.9 1.7

2.9 2.8

2.9 3.4

2.9 3.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.2

7.6 1.1

7.6 1.6

7.7 1.7

7.7 2

7.7 1.9

7.7 1.6

7.7 1

7.8 0.8

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.5

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.8

7.8 0.6

26.8 -7.6

26.9 -1.1

27.2 1.7

27.5 3.4

27.8 3.5

28 3.9

28.3 4.3

28.7 4.4

29.2 5.1

29.6 5.8

30 6

30.4 5.9

30.9 5.8

31.3 5.7

31.7 5.7

33 1.8

33.2 2.1

33.3 1.7

33.4 1.8

33.6 1.7

33.6 1.4

33.7 1.3

34 1.8

34.2 1.8

34.3 1.9

34.4 2

34.5 1.4

34.7 1.5

34.8 1.6

35 1.6

21.5 3.6

21.7 4.1

21.8 3

21.9 2.5

21.9 1.9

21.9 1.1

21.9 0.6

21.9 0.4

21.9 -0.1

21.8 -0.5

21.7 -0.9

21.7 -1.1

21.6 -1.1

21.6 -1

21.5 -0.8

8 0.7

8 -0.1

8.1 1.5

8.1 1.7

8.1 1.6

8.1 1.3

8.2 1.1

8.2 0.8

8.2 0.9

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.2

8.2 0

8.2 -0.2

8.2 -0.4

8.2 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -2.2

6.2 -3.3

6.1 -4.2

6.1 -3.4

6.1 -2.6

6 -2.8

6 -2.8

5.9 -2.8

5.9 -2.7

5.9 -2.6

5.8 -2.4

5.8 -2.2

5.8 -1.9

5.8 -1.6

5.8 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -2

21.6 -0.7

21.7 -1

21.7 -0.2

21.7 0.1

21.7 0.5

21.8 0.6

21.8 0.6

21.9 0.7

21.9 0.6

21.9 0.6

22 0.7

22 0.6

22 0.7

22.1 0.7

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16342

16409

16521

16630

16756

16886

17042

17205

17354

17508

17680

17824

17976

18133

18280

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

550.6 0.8

552 0.9

553.5 1

555.1 1.1

556.7 1.1

558.5 1.2

560.4 1.2

562.6 1.3

564.8 1.5

567 1.5

569.2 1.6

571.8 1.6

574.4 1.7

576.8 1.7

579.3 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

262.8 -0.3

263.7 0.8

264.3 1.2

264.8 1.2

265.9 1.2

266.9 1.2

267.9 1.4

268.6 1.4

269.1 1.2

269.9 1.1

270.6 1

271.2 1

272 1.1

273 1.2

273.5 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.3

10.3

10.3

10.3

10.2

10.2

10

9.9

9.7

9.5

9.4

9.2

9

8.8

8.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1261 1119 141

1364 1217 147

1509 1329 179

1766 1542 224

2137 1866 271

2715 2331 384

3216 2696 520

3527 2941 586

3909 3261 649

4331 3614 717

4642 3850 791

4922 4057 865

5180 4269 911

5381 4427 953

5490 4502 989

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other metro areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.7 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 31.9. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.4 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 43.2. Population growth will be at a rate of 1.1 percent. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,858.63 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS: • Metro population estimate of 448,991 as of 2010 Census. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 297,619 as of 2010 Census. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of 2010 Census. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 214,922 in June 2011. (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.2% as of June 2011. This amounts to 21,980 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Local Government – 14,000 employees • Federal Government – 6,900 employees • State Government – 5,800 employees • Escambia County School District – 5,376 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,797 employees • Santa Rosa County School District – 2,600 employees • Lakeview Center – 2,000 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees Sources: Enterprise Florida, Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Escambia County School District

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

Employment growth is expected to average 1.1 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 8.5 percent. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 6.7 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 3.1 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -0.6 percent and -2.4 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s New direction announced for Port

• Ashton Hayward, Mayor of Pensacola, announced plans to improve the Port of Pensacola to help it cater to the modern economy.

• The Port will be transitioned from aggregate and cement-driven to focusing on high-tech industries with high job growth.

• The Mayor will look into state and federal grant opportunities as well as economic development funds from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Source: NorthEscambia.com, January 6, 2012


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e nt

Escambia voters approve tax break referendum

• Voters extended an ad valorem tax abatement program for the next ten years that is designed to encourage businesses to relocate to Escambia County and encourage existing businesses to expand. • The Escambia County Ad Valorem Tax Exemption, or EDATE, is credited for over 4,000 jobs in the county.

• The tax abatement is for properties that have an increase in their assessed value, so it theoretically should not affect revenue. Source: NorthEscambia.com, February 1, 2012

Pensacola-area tourism marketing to change

State trims Gulf Power rate hike, allows no increase for north Escambia nuclear plant

• The Florida Public Service Commission approved a $64.1 million base-rate increase for Gulf Power Company, but did not allow an increase for the purchase of land for a possible nuclear plant. Changes will take effect April 11th.

• Gulf Power initially requested an increase of $93.5 million, which later increased to $101.6 million due to accounting issues from improving a power plant. • Gulf Power has not had a base rate increase in ten years. Source: NorthEscambia.com, February 28, 2012

• For the past decade, a single advertising agency has handled the advertising contract promoting for the Pensacola Chamber of Commerce. • The Chamber is now revamping its advertising strategy with three separate components to its contract: research, advertising and interactive, and public relations.

Source: Pensacola News-Journal, February 21, 2012

Santa Rosa commissioners extend contract for two

• A month-to-month contract for two members of the TEAM Santa Rosa Economic Development Council was extended through March 31. • The purpose of the extension was to allow an Economic Development Transition Committee enough time to develop a new agency to pick up TEAM’s responsibilities.

Source: Pensacola News-Journal, February 23, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

15000.0

13000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0

76

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment

150.0

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

175.0

1.2

14000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e nt

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4

14.9 5.1 7.0 7.9

15.3 3.1 7.0 8.4

14.9 -2.7 6.8 8.1

15.5 3.9 6.9 8.6

16.1 4.2 7.1 9.1

16.5 2.5 7.2 9.4

17.1 3.4 7.4 9.7

17.9 4.5 7.7 10.1

18.7 4.5 8.1 10.6

19.6 5.0 8.4 11.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.8 5.7

14.1 2.4

14.1 -0.1

13.7 -2.9

13.9 2.0

14.2 1.7

14.3 1.0

14.6 1.9

15.0 2.8

15.4 2.8

15.9 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.9 31.0

33.5 31.7

34.4 31.6

33.3 30.5

34.4 30.9

35.5 31.2

36.1 31.3

37.0 31.6

38.2 32.1

39.4 32.5

40.7 33.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 5.1

37.5 2.6

38.8 3.3

39.9 2.8

40.0 0.4

40.8 2.0

41.6 2.0

42.6 2.3

43.7 2.6

44.9 2.7

46.1 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.7 2.6

172.7 0.0

165.2 -4.3

157.1 -4.9

157.7 0.4

158.0 0.2

157.0 -0.6

159.1 1.4

161.9 1.8

165.0 1.9

167.9 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -1.4

7.0 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.5

5.4 0.7

5.5 0.9

5.6 2.0

5.7 1.6

5.7 1.2

5.7 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.2 2.8

165.7 0.3

158.7 -4.2

151.7 -4.5

152.3 0.4

152.6 0.2

151.5 -0.7

153.6 1.3

156.3 1.8

159.3 1.9

162.2 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 10.4

14.7 -4.0

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.2 -3.9

10.0 -1.9

9.8 -2.4

10.0 2.8

11.3 12.3

12.8 14.0

14.0 9.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.0 -0.2

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.1 -3.3

29.2 0.2

29.2 0.1

29.7 1.8

30.0 0.8

30.3 1.2

30.8 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.2 21.8 5.0

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.0 20.0 4.1

4.9 20.1 4.1

4.8 20.1 4.2

4.9 20.3 4.3

5.0 20.3 4.4

5.2 20.4 4.5

5.3 20.6 4.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 0.7

3.6 -5.8

3.5 -2.6

3.2 -6.8

3.3 1.6

3.2 -3.5

3.1 -3.0

3.2 3.0

3.2 0.9

3.3 2.5

3.4 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 8.4

9.2 3.0

8.8 -3.7

8.6 -2.8

8.4 -2.2

8.3 -0.8

8.3 -0.3

8.4 1.3

8.4 0.3

8.5 0.1

8.4 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.0 0.6

20.0 -4.7

18.6 -7.2

17.9 -3.7

19.0 6.2

19.0 -0.1

18.7 -1.9

19.3 3.6

20.3 5.1

21.5 5.5

22.4 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.1 5.8

29.3 4.1

28.8 -1.4

28.6 -0.9

29.3 2.5

29.9 2.1

29.9 0.2

30.3 1.1

30.7 1.4

30.9 0.8

31.5 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 2.4

18.0 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

17.6 0.2

18.3 4.1

18.5 1.0

18.8 1.4

18.7 -0.5

18.5 -1.2

18.3 -1.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 0.0

7.8 -0.5

7.3 -6.3

6.7 -8.5

6.3 -4.9

6.2 -2.0

6.2 -0.6

6.2 1.3

6.3 0.5

6.3 -0.4

6.2 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 0.4

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.0

6.8 -5.7

6.7 -1.3

6.5 -3.3

6.3 -2.9

6.2 -2.1

6.1 -1.4

22.5 1.4

22.7 1.0

22.3 -1.8

21.8 -2.1

21.8 -0.1

21.6 -0.9

21.2 -2.0

21.1 -0.4

21.1 0.1

21.1 0.0

21.1 0.0

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13505.5

13664.4

13271.2

12993.2

13342.0

13433.8

13411.0

13631.9

14002.6

14389.0

14749.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

443.2 0.7

443.9 0.2

445.5 0.4

447.1 0.4

450.1 0.7

454.0 0.9

457.9 0.9

462.3 1.0

467.6 1.2

474.2 1.4

481.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

205.6 2.0

209.0 1.7

208.1 -0.4

208.0 -0.1

211.2 1.6

211.4 0.1

211.6 0.1

214.1 1.2

215.5 0.6

216.8 0.6

218.0 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.0

3.7

5.8

9.3

10.5

10.0

9.0

8.9

8.3

7.7

7.2

2862.7 2333.9 529.0

2427.5 1787.5 640.0

1328.0 1127.7 200.0

1036.5 956.4 80.0

1816.9 1363.6 453.0

1232.0 1230.4 2.0

1216.6 1130.9 86.0

1460.6 1263.4 197.0

2065.3 1824.1 241.0

2571.0 2293.6 277.0

2709.0 2398.7 310.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

April 2012

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.5 1.9 7.1 9.3

16.6 2.8 7.2 9.4

16.8 3.7 7.3 9.5

16.9 3.6 7.3 9.6

17 3.4 7.4 9.6

17.2 3.2 7.4 9.7

17.3 3.3 7.5 9.8

17.6 4.2 7.6 10

17.8 4.4 7.7 10.1

17.9 4.6 7.8 10.2

18.1 4.7 7.9 10.3

18.4 4.5 7.9 10.4

18.6 4.5 8 10.5

18.8 4.5 8.1 10.6

19 4.6 8.2 10.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 0.6

14.4 1.6

14.4 2.2

14.5 2.1

14.6 1.9

14.6 1.8

14.7 1.8

14.9 2.6

14.9 2.6

15.1 2.9

15.1 3

15.3 2.8

15.4 2.9

15.5 2.8

15.6 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36 31.2

36.2 31.3

36.5 31.4

36.7 31.4

36.8 31.5

37.1 31.6

37.3 31.7

37.8 31.9

38 32

38.3 32.1

38.6 32.2

38.9 32.4

39.2 32.5

39.5 32.6

39.8 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.5 1.9

41.8 2.3

42 2.2

42.3 2.3

42.5 2.3

42.7 2.3

43 2.4

43.3 2.4

43.6 2.5

43.9 2.6

44.2 2.7

44.4 2.7

44.7 2.7

45 2.7

45.3 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

156.7 -0.9

157.1 -1.1

157.7 0.8

158.3 1.2

158.8 1.3

159.4 1.4

160.1 1.5

160.9 1.7

161.5 1.7

162.2 1.8

163 1.9

163.8 1.8

164.6 1.9

165.4 2

166.2 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 0.3

5.5 1.4

5.5 2.1

5.5 2

5.6 2

5.6 2.1

5.6 1.8

5.6 1.7

5.6 1.4

5.7 1.6

5.7 1.7

5.7 1.5

5.7 1.4

5.7 1.1

5.7 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.3 -1

151.7 -1.1

152.2 0.7

152.7 1.1

153.3 1.3

153.8 1.4

154.5 1.5

155.3 1.7

155.9 1.7

156.6 1.8

157.3 1.9

158.1 1.8

158.9 1.9

159.7 2

160.5 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 -2.1

9.7 -2.3

9.7 -2.9

9.8 -0.3

9.9 1.3

10.1 3.6

10.4 6.6

10.7 9.5

11.1 11.6

11.4 13.2

11.9 14.5

12.3 14.7

12.7 14.6

13 14.1

13.4 12.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.1 -0.8

29.2 -0.6

29.4 2.1

29.6 1.9

29.6 2

29.8 1.9

29.9 1.5

29.9 1.2

29.9 0.9

30 0.6

30 0.6

30.1 0.7

30.2 1.1

30.4 1.3

30.5 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 20 4.2

4.8 20.1 4.2

4.9 20.2 4.2

4.9 20.3 4.3

4.9 20.3 4.3

5 20.4 4.3

5 20.4 4.4

5 20.4 4.4

5 20.3 4.4

5 20.3 4.4

5.1 20.3 4.4

5.1 20.3 4.5

5.2 20.4 4.5

5.2 20.4 4.5

5.2 20.5 4.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -4.4

3.1 -3.4

3.1 -0.2

3.1 0.7

3.2 2.5

3.2 4.4

3.2 4.3

3.2 3.4

3.2 1.1

3.2 -0.5

3.2 -0.2

3.2 1.4

3.3 2.4

3.3 3

3.3 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 0.1

8.3 0

8.4 1.1

8.4 1.2

8.4 1.5

8.4 1.4

8.4 1.1

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.3

8.5 0.2

8.5 0.1

8.4 -0.1

8.4 0.1

8.5 0.2

8.5 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 -2.9

18.7 -2.9

18.9 2.3

19.1 3.3

19.3 3.3

19.4 3.7

19.6 4

19.9 4.2

20.2 4.8

20.5 5.6

20.8 5.7

21 5.7

21.3 5.5

21.6 5.5

21.9 5.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 -0.2

30 0.1

30.1 1.3

30.2 1.3

30.3 1.2

30.3 1

30.4 0.8

30.6 1.4

30.7 1.3

30.7 1.4

30.8 1.5

30.8 0.8

30.9 0.8

31 0.9

31.1 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 0.5

18.6 0

18.7 2.8

18.7 2.4

18.8 1.8

18.8 0.9

18.8 0.5

18.8 0.2

18.7 -0.3

18.6 -0.7

18.6 -1.1

18.5 -1.3

18.5 -1.3

18.4 -1.2

18.4 -1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -0.6

6.2 -1.4

6.2 1.4

6.2 1.5

6.2 1.4

6.3 1.2

6.3 0.9

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.6

6.3 0

6.3 -0.2

6.3 -0.4

6.3 -0.6

6.2 -0.4

6.7 1.2

6.7 -2.9

6.6 -4.5

6.6 -3.7

6.5 -3

6.4 -3.1

6.4 -3.2

6.4 -3.1

6.3 -3

6.3 -2.9

6.2 -2.8

6.2 -2.6

6.2 -2.3

6.1 -2

6.1 -1.7

21.2 -2

21.2 -2

21.1 -1.7

21.1 -0.8

21.1 -0.5

21.1 -0.1

21.2 0

21.1 0.1

21.2 0.2

21.1 0

21.2 0

21.2 0.1

21.1 -0.1

21.1 -0.1

21.1 -0.1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13398

13416

13469

13518

13588

13663

13759

13858

13951

14046

14155

14248

14341

14439

14529

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

457.4 0.8

458.4 0.9

459.4 0.9

460.5 0.9

461.6 0.9

462.8 1

464.1 1

465.5 1.1

466.9 1.1

468.3 1.2

469.7 1.2

471.5 1.3

473.3 1.4

475.1 1.5

477 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

211.3 -0.1

212.1 0.5

212.9 1.5

213.5 1.5

213.9 1.2

214.3 1.1

214.8 0.9

215.1 0.8

215.3 0.7

215.7 0.6

216 0.5

216.2 0.5

216.6 0.6

217.1 0.7

217.3 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

9.1

9

9

9

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.4

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

1233 1154 79

1146 1049 97

1152 1032 120

1231 1082 149

1359 1175 184

1575 1355 220

1677 1441 235

1809 1571 237

1977 1741 236

2171 1929 242

2305 2055 250

2430 2163 267

2546 2271 275

2633 2351 281

2676 2389 287

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Ta l l a h a s s e e P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.8 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 30.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level will be 44.0. Population growth will be at 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,503.31 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 367,413 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,389 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,761 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 275,487 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,776 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 193,873 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 7.7% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,011 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University – 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees • Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1,522 employees • Tallahassee Community College – 1,090 employees

Employment growth is expected to be 1.0 percent each year, the second lowest in the studied areas. The unemployment rate will average 7.0 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 6.8 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.1 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.2 percent and -2.0 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Ads on school buses could bring millions into school system

• SB 344 in the Florida Senate could allow school systems to decide to display limited advertisements on school buses to make some money.

• If passed, it would allow the Leon County School District to make $1.5 to $2 million on the advertisements. The advertisements would be limited to those not containing, alcohol, cigarettes, sexual content, or political themes. • The use of these advertisements is supported by Leon County School Superintendent Jackie Pons. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 9, 2012

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES) Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


Ta l l a h a s s e e

County nixes additional gas tax

• The Leon County Commission decided to cease further discussion of a proposal for a 5 cent increase in the gas tax. • The Commission needed a super-majority to continue with the proposal, but the commission was split 4-3 on the proposal.

• The county receives about $8 million a year in gas tax money, and it needs about $13 million to maintain its roads. It is currently cutting money from other areas to pay for road maintenance. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 14, 2012

Utility deposit refunds to businesses begin this week • The Tallahassee City Commission voted to return nearly $5.6 million in utility deposit refunds to commercial customers who have faithfully paid their bills for over 3 years and have been disconnected only once or not at all. • 3,600 businesses will receive checks ranging from $129 to $119,000.

• The commissioners hope that companies receiving the largest refunds will use the money to do more hiring in the local area. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 10, 2012

$5M gift to help FSU’s next big idea

• FSU’s risk management program in the College of Business is working with other departments and colleges as part of FSU’s next “big idea” campaign. The program will get multiple areas of study involved in risk management research.

• FSU is looking to raise $1 billion for the project, and is kicking off the program with a $5 million donation from William Hold and the National Alliance for Insurance Education and Research. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 28, 2012

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2012


Ta l l a h a s s e e Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

8.0%

13000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0% 0.0%

165.0 160.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 180.0

2.5

14000.0

10.0%

2.0%

2

-2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


Ta l l a h a s s e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

April 2012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7

11.8 5.5 6.9 5.0

12.2 3.1 6.9 5.3

11.8 -3.1 6.8 5.0

12.2 3.2 6.9 5.4

12.7 3.9 7.0 5.7

13.0 2.8 7.2 5.9

13.5 3.4 7.5 6.0

14.1 4.4 7.8 6.3

14.7 4.4 8.1 6.6

15.4 4.8 8.5 6.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.9 3.5

11.2 2.7

11.2 -0.1

10.8 -3.3

11.0 1.4

11.2 1.5

11.3 1.3

11.5 1.9

11.8 2.8

12.2 2.7

12.5 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.0 31.1

33.1 31.4

33.8 31.0

32.4 29.7

33.1 29.8

34.0 29.9

34.6 30.0

35.4 30.2

36.5 30.6

37.5 31.0

38.7 31.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.2 2.8

38.5 3.6

39.2 1.7

39.5 0.8

40.3 2.0

41.2 2.2

42.1 2.4

43.3 2.8

44.6 3.0

46.0 3.1

47.4 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

176.0 2.4

178.0 1.1

176.3 -0.9

171.4 -2.8

169.4 -1.2

169.4 0.0

169.7 0.2

171.5 1.0

173.8 1.4

176.4 1.5

179.1 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.9 -9.4

3.7 -3.8

3.7 0.2

3.8 1.9

3.9 2.7

4.0 2.3

4.0 1.9

4.1 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

171.5 2.4

173.4 1.1

172.1 -0.8

167.6 -2.6

165.7 -1.1

165.7 0.0

165.9 0.1

167.6 1.0

169.8 1.3

172.4 1.5

175.0 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3.0

8.6 -9.7

7.0 -18.0

6.5 -8.3

6.4 -0.2

6.3 -1.7

6.5 2.5

7.3 12.3

8.3 14.0

9.1 9.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 0.9

25.3 -1.2

24.2 -4.5

22.6 -6.6

22.4 -0.9

22.9 2.4

22.6 -1.3

23.0 1.7

23.1 0.7

23.4 1.1

23.8 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.7 19.4 2.4

3.8 19.2 2.4

3.6 18.5 2.0

3.4 17.4 1.8

3.3 17.2 1.8

3.3 17.7 1.9

3.4 17.1 2.0

3.4 17.4 2.1

3.5 17.4 2.1

3.6 17.4 2.2

3.7 17.6 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 -5.2

3.6 2.9

3.6 0.4

3.4 -6.0

3.1 -9.3

3.0 -2.5

3.0 0.7

3.1 3.0

3.1 0.9

3.2 2.5

3.3 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 4.4

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -3.0

7.5 -5.8

7.2 -3.7

7.0 -3.2

7.0 0.9

7.1 1.1

7.1 0.2

7.1 0.0

7.1 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 5.1

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.5 -3.6

18.1 -2.1

17.7 -2.2

18.1 2.2

18.7 3.5

19.7 5.1

20.8 5.6

21.7 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 3.3

18.5 3.8

19.2 4.0

19.5 1.5

19.7 1.1

20.1 2.1

20.5 1.7

20.7 0.9

20.9 1.3

21.1 1.0

21.6 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 3.3

16.8 3.6

16.5 -1.5

16.2 -1.6

15.8 -2.5

16.3 3.3

16.6 1.6

16.8 1.3

16.7 -0.5

16.5 -1.2

16.4 -1.0

8.5 5.8

9.0 5.9

9.7 8.8

10.0 2.1

9.9 -0.2

10.1 1.2

10.2 1.6

10.4 1.4

10.4 0.7

10.4 -0.2