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Florida & Metro Forecast 2013-2016

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2012


About University of Central Florida (UCF)

About the College of Business Administration


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2013 - 2016 December 2012 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Melissa Hedtke, Researcher Caleb Leedy, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89


F l o r i d a H i g h l i g ht s

H i g h l i g ht s o f the Dece m be r 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 1 6 F l o r i d a F o r eca s t • At our projected growth for payroll employment, Governor Scott will hit his target of 700,000 jobs created in just 5 years, which is two years ahead of his 7-year pledge. • Rising housing prices will in turn feed back into the economy via wealth effects and help the labor market continue to improve - a virtuous cycle that will finally supplant the cruel interaction of these two markets during the past five years. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average just 0.9% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 2.3% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, and 2.5% in 2016. It will be third quarter 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The size of the labor force is still the lynchpin to predicting the future path for the unemployment rate in Florida. Labor force growth will average close to 1.4% during 2013-2016 and this will slow the pace of the decline in the unemployment rate. • Unemployment rates continue to decline in large part due to labor force contraction and they will continue to decline through 2016. The pace of decline will moderate as labor force growth picks up and it will be 2014 Q2 before we see unemployment fall below 8%. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market slack than official unemployment (U-3), came in at 16.4% for fourth quarter 2011 through third quarter 2012. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2013-2016 are Construction (6.1%); Professional and Business Services (5.6%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.0%); Education & Health Services (2.4%); and Information (1.7%). • Housing starts climbed higher in 2012 and will begin to accelerate in 2013. Total starts will be over 128,000 in 2014, just over 164,000 in 2015, and then hit 185,400 in 2016. This is the highest level since 2006, but still nearly 18,000 fewer starts than that year. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand just 1.6% in 2012, and then accelerate to 2.3% in 2013, 3.3% in 2014, 4.0% in 2015, and 3.6% in 2016. Average growth will be 3.3% during 2013-2016 compared to average growth of -0.6% over the preceding four years. • Real personal income growth for 2012 slowed to 1.5%. From 2013-2016, real personal income growth will average 3.8%, and will accelerate to 4.0% in 2015. • Florida’s population growth will continue to pick up in 2013 and beyond. By 2016, the growth rate will be at 1.7% for the second year in a row, the fastest rate since 2006. As the economy strengthens, job creation and Baby Boomers’ retirements will both boost net migration. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.1% during 2013-2016, after growing 4.8% in 2012.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Flor i da’s H o u s i n g Mar k et Data recently released by Florida Realtors shows signs of a housing market that continues to find firmer footing amid growing signs of a nascent housing recovery in Florida. Median sales prices for singlefamily homes increased $12,000 in October yearover-year and stand at $145,000. For the beleaguered townhome/condominium market, the median sales price increased $18,000 year-over-year and came in at $107,900 in October. Figure 1, below, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. The trend for sales has been on an upward path from its low point in late 2007-08, and since that bottom sales have improved. While the overall trend is upward, there has been some wavering in the monthly sales data as the economic and demographic underpinnings of the housing market have yet to resume vigorous growth. As these foundations for a healthy housing market continue to fall into place, we can expect that the upward trend in sales will become more consistent. Figure 2, below, displays median sales prices for single family existing homes. While there has been no upward trend in housing prices, it is starting to appear that the bottom may have been reached for prices. Prices are beginning to look like they have already hit a wellestablished bottom and have lingered near that bottom for the better part of two years. In recent months, the

12-month moving average of median sales prices has started to curl upwards. It is not yet completely clear whether this upward curl is a permanent wave or if it will once again fall flat in the humid air of Florida’s housing market. Homeowners are still a long way away from the equity flushed days of 2004-2005, but a recent report indicated that less than half of Florida homeowners are currently underwater in their mortgages - the first time in years that figure has been less than 50%. That being said, the median homeowner is still over $100,000 poorer than they were in mid-2006. We are seeing more encouraging signs from the long-suffering housing sector in Florida. This includes evidence that new home building is starting to ramp up again. As the economy in Florida strengthens over the next several years, housing will benefit from the more robust growth. Population growth and employment growth provide solid foundations for the housing market. Prices may also continue to climb, but the pace is not likely to be robust enough to quickly replenish the lost wealth in the form of home equity that the collapse of the state’s housing market so quickly erased. The bottom line is that the housing market is finally showing signs of a recovery from deep and protracted collapse, but we still have a long, hard road ahead for the state before we can declare that the sector has fully recovered.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Florida

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes 30000

300000

25000

250000

20000

200000

15000

150000

100000

10000

50000

5000

0

0

Realtor Sales Total

6

Moving Average RS

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

Median Sales Price Dollars

Moving Average MHP


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Out loo k fo r F lo r ida 2 01 3 - 2 016 Florida’s Economic Recovery Has Finally Started to Materialize Will Europe or the Fiscal Cliff Make it Disappear Again?

The year 2012 has been a year of lost momentum for the national recovery. The U.S. economy downshifted from 4.1% growth in the 4th quarter of 2011 to what is likely to be growth in the 1.0% range for the 4th quarter of 2012. The national economy has been unable to shake the burden of uncertainty driven by policy action and inaction in the U.S., as well as a global economic environment that has lost momentum but not the potential to derail the recovery in the U.S. The fiscal cliff, as of this writing, continues to loom large over the economic landscape of the country and still holds the potential to push the U.S. back into recession. It seems unfathomable that we would selfinflict this recession, but given that the pre-election rhetoric continues in the post-election cliff negotiations, a plunge off the cliff is still a possibility. Delusions that increasing the tax rates on the highest tax bracket will solve our fiscal problems or that we can leave entitlement programs untouched because they do not impact the budget deficit or national debt are still prevalent and go largely unchallenged. We need to go large to fix this problem, but instead we remain petty and marginal in the proposals made thus far. If the U.S. is knocked back into recession, we can expect Florida to follow suit. Florida’s economic recovery began in 2010, and in that first year, Real Gross State Product growth was just 0.9%. Unfortunately, in 2011, growth decelerated and the economy expanded by just 0.5%. The results of the November elections ensure that financial regulatory reform and healthcare reform will continue to move forward, which will weigh on economic growth in the coming years. These two laws are large, and largely flawed, pieces of legislation that will place significant burdens on economic growth. The economic recovery can survive under these polices, but it is unlikely to thrive. The enduring problems with consumer’s balance sheets, specifically depleted home equity wealth, will continue to weigh on real GDP growth. The lasting

impact of lost wealth will also play a role in keeping economic growth to just 1.9% on average in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2012. In Florida, the wealth effects of depleted, and in many cases negative, home equity has been substantial and will continue to weigh on the shoulders of Floridians for many years to come. Recent news that the percentage of homeowners who are underwater has fallen below 50% may be more of a sign that foreclosures and short sales have weeded out many homeowners with negative equity, rather than a clear indication of rising housing prices. Consumer spending, while occasionally providing some lift to the economy, has not been able to lead the economic recovery. Nonetheless, consumer spending should continue to show some boost from pent-up demand, improving housing and labor markets in 2013 and beyond. The year 2012 is shaping up to be another year of subpar growth, but it is still better than 2011. Economic growth in Florida for 2012 will be 1.6%, and payroll employment will expand by just 0.9%. Florida’s economic growth will accelerate, however, into 2013, 2014, and 2015, thereby allowing the labor market to build some momentum in its own recovery, as even the construction sector will begin to see job growth by 2013. The only sector expected to lose jobs consistently through 2016 is the federal government. Fiscal austerity is a key part of the cure (economic growth can go a long way to help as well, but we have not had deficit reducing growth thus far in the recovery) for massive budget deficits and the national debt will force difficult, but necessary, cuts to federal government spending and thus employment. The labor market’s recovery will feed into retail sales, and more discretionary spending in general will help to ease budget crunches in Tallahassee and provide revenue necessary for strategic investments in Florida’s economy. As we have discussed in previous Florida forecasts, the housing market’s recovery will feed into, and off of, that of the labor market. Florida’s economy is poised to break away from the lackluster U.S. economic recovery, provided the fiscal cliff or the Euro crisis does not sabotage the state’s improving growth. The year 2013 will mark a crossover year when Florida goes from lagging the nation as a whole to once again outperforming the national economy. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Gross State P r o d uct Real Gross State Product (RGSP) in Florida, also known now as State GDP, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, started to grow again in 2010 after two years of sharp contraction as the recession lost its grip on the state. Growth was modest in that first year of recovery and became even more so in 2011, with full year growth of just 0.5%. To put that growth in perspective, in 2002-2006 Real GSP grew at an average rate of 4.7% with 2005 being the peak year for growth as the economy then grew at an eye-popping pace of 6.2%. Economic growth in the state has been more eyewatering than eye-popping for the first few years of this recovery. The year 2012 will be an improvement over the previous two years, but just marginally so. We expect the economy to expand at 1.6% this year. This is an improvement, but hardly qualifying as robust. In 2013, confidence and a growing labor market recovery should both be back in place allowing for stronger growth of 2.3%. These factors should finally create some Florida-like growth in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when Real GSP is expected to grow 3.3%, 4.0%, and 3.6% respectively. In most cases, the burden of lost housing wealth Florida’s consumers have to overcome is substantially higher than consumer’s burdens in other states around the nation. While housing prices have shown signs of stabilizing, if not showing some slight upward movement, the damage to Floridian’s balance sheets has been profound. Realistically it will take many years, if not a decade or more, to claw back that wealth. Thus, the scars of this recession and housing bubble will be with us for a long time to come as both a reminder of and an impediment to the growth we once enjoyed and would like to experience again. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013, Florida’s economy will begin to grow more rapidly, labor markets will improve, and housing prices will benefit from both of these improving fundamentals. Economic and demographic growth will provide a solid foundation upon which a healthy housing sector can once again grow. Rising housing prices will in turn feed back into the economy via wealth effects and help the labor market continue to improve - a virtuous cycle that will finally supplant the cruel interaction of these two markets during the past five years. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

nearly $957 billion in 2016. The state will cross the trillion-dollar threshold for nominal GSP in 2017. The size of Florida’s economy as measured by GSP will have doubled in size from 2001 to 2017. Favorable demographics, specifically faster rates of domestic and international migration, will continue to fuel the state’s growth. In addition to population growth, international trade, tourism, healthcare, and ongoing efforts to diversify the state’s economic base in life sciences will all help broaden the economic base of the state and provide additional sources of economic growth helping to push the economy forward in the years and decades to come.

P ers o nal Inco m e, Retai l Sales , and Auto Sales Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter continued to decelerate into the first half of 2012 in Florida, after doing so for all of 2011. Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2012, and then waver again in the first half of 2013. Going forward, momentum will build in the second half of 2013 and be maintained through the end of 2016. Year-over-year growth lost a bit of speed in 2012, but personal income growth will build in 2013 with growth of 4.3%, will pick up more steam in 2014 when it is expected to grow 5.6%, and then will accelerate further in 2015 and 2016 when growth will average 5.8%. Personal income growth in Florida will lag behind that of the nation as a whole in 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the year we are calling the crossover year, the positions reverse, and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.7% higher than the national rate through 2016. Personal income growth during 2013-2016 will average 5.4%; during the preceding four years that average growth rate was just 1.4%. Personal income will reach nearly $961 billion in 2016 - a year that will see personal income grow by $52.9 billion. Real disposable income growth, weighed down by the Great Recession and the slow pace of recovery, increased by just 1.0% in 2011. In 2012, disposable income growth will average 1.2%. Average growth during 20132016 will be a more robust 3.6%. Increasing tax burdens at the federal level will be a drag on disposable income over the forecast horizon and beyond. Addressing the nation’s deficit and debt problems cannot be achieved through spending cuts alone and will necessitate higher tax burdens for more than just the wealthy.


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Financial markets have made a strong recovery from the nadir of the financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since climbed back above the 13,100 level. The bond market has also performed very strongly, and as a result, the overall value of financial assets held by U.S. households has now exceeded their pre-crisis highs. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for home equity wealth held by households. The housing market in Florida, unlike financial markets, has made no such comeback, though housing prices may have touched their bottom. The trillions of dollars in home equity lost nationwide could take many years, if not decades, to recover. In Florida, this negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the horizon of this forecast and for many years beyond. Florida’s persistently high unemployment and underemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. If national healthcare reform pushes more companies in the hospitality sector to rely on part-time workers, the underemployment problem in the state stands a good chance of worsening over the next couple years. Generally, as the labor market shifts into a phase with private sector job creation accelerating, it will boost consumer confidence and spending. The improved sentiment will help to bolster consumer spending curtailed by employment insecurity over the past several years. Retail sales in Florida will grow at 4.8% in 2012, part of which will be due to higher gasoline expenditures because of rising prices, but it’s also the result of the ongoing venting of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers and visitors. As the labor market recovery gains momentum, retail spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in the economy. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 4.1% during the years 2013-2016. Although retail sales growth will not soar as it did during the height of the housing and economic boom, the ongoing improvement will help bolster sales tax revenues and continue to alleviate budget constraints in Tallahassee. Austerity will remain a necessary element in budget planning at both the state and local level. As the economy has recovered, consumer’s replacement need for automobiles and light trucks has been driving automobile sales. This replacement need can be seen in national registration data, which shows

that the average age of vehicles on the road today is 10 to 11 years, and a sense of stability, if not a booming recovery, has fueled this demand. Growth will be healthy during 2013-2016, averaging nearly 8.3%. In 2016, Florida registrations will reach 1.4 million, representing an increase of over 706,000 registrations from the 2009 low point, but this is still below the peak level of registrations during the height of the housing boom of 1.45 million in 2005.

E m ploym ent Payroll job growth in Florida finally took root in 2011. In 2012, job growth continued, but it certainly did not fully blossom. After a better start to the year, 2012 job growth has decelerated in the second half. The overall economic environment nationally has slowed significantly, and in this larger environment, Florida’s employment growth has struggled to gain momentum. Full year job growth for 2011 averaged 1.1%. In 2012, job growth has wavered, but is expected to come in at just under 1.0%. 2013 will mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth with job growth of 1.9%. Payroll job growth will reach 2.3% in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015 before settling at 2.5% in 2016. The long-suffering Construction sector will face another year of job losses in 2012 before it finally joins in the labor market’s recovery. The sector lost jobs in a dramatic manner after peaking during the white-hot housing boom; it will be six straight years of job losses for the sector, and 2013 will mark the long awaited turnaround in the Construction sector as recovery gets underway. Job growth will return to the Construction sector in 2013; construction will be the last sector to join in the economic recovery as far as the private sector job creation is concerned. Job growth is expected to surge to 4.0% in 2013, 11.2% in 2014, 15.2% in 2015, and 11.3% in 2016. The three straight years of double-digit employment growth will at first glance appear large, but these growth rates are calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2016, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously seen in 2000. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s 2nd fastest growing sector through 2016, behind Construction. However, growth rates in the Professional and Business Services sector are not from Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

a depleted base. Job growth in this sector is expected to be healthy, averaging 5.6% during 2013-2016. Job gains here were modest in the first year of Florida’s recovery, but have and will continue to accelerate. After three years of modest growth, growth will accelerate and reach 5.4% in 2013, 5.6% in 2014, and 6.6% in 2015, before settling to 4.7% in 2016. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment in the first few months of 2014. The Information sector continued to lose jobs in 2012. Ongoing structural changes in the industry continue to roil this sector, as technology and the delivery of information continue to evolve, becoming more dispersed. For many, news comes in the form of 140 character tweets and blog posts rather than in newsprint. There are limits to cutbacks at newspapers and magazines; somebody has to write the news stories that are increasingly read on tablet computers and smart phones instead of printed pages. Despite dispersed reports having their benefits, the accuracy of breaking news reported by tweets is also a concern because there is little in the way of vetting when it comes to these news sources. Although the news industry is still under pressure, other sources of growth within this sector, such as software, will eventually help compensate. Job growth should return to the Information sector year-over-year in 2012, just the second year of job growth in this sector in eleven prior years, including six straight years of net job losses leading up to 2012. After 0.3% growth in 2012, job growth will jump to 1.3% in 2013 and will average just 1.7% in 2013-2016. The one sector that has consistently created jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2016 is the Health and Education sector. During 2013-2016, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.4%. School budgets will likely constrain employment levels in the education side of the sector as schools have faced significant revenue constraints because of the housing sector’s troubles and the impact it has had upon the property tax based revenue that funds school districts. The housing sector has shown some signs of recovery, but there are lags before any recovery in housing values actually filter down to stronger school budgets. It is still uncertain as to precisely how national politics and the legal system will ultimately affect healthcare in Florida. Many states, including Florida, are refusing to 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

set up healthcare exchanges that are a necessary part of implementing federal healthcare reform. The resultant federal and state budget battles will continue to put Medicare and Medicaid expenditures in the spotlight. The focus will necessarily be on gaining efficiency and controlling the cost of delivering these services. It is not clear that the process will be viable ultimately and there are likely to be ongoing problems both anticipated and unanticipated. However, the momentum is fully toward expanding coverage, and with the aging of our population, demand for health services will remain strong in the near to intermediate term. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector. Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida through 2011, and in 2012 growth has been waning. Global competition and efficiency gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade, and as a result, the sector is emerging as productive as it has been in many years. This improved competitiveness, despite a weakening of expansions in emerging economies and an ongoing European recession, will help drive job growth as exports should nonetheless continue to rise, albeit at a diminished pace. We are expecting to see job growth of 0.4% in this sector for the full year in 2013, followed by a slightly stronger year of job growth in 2014, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.6%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to gain jobs in 2015 and 2016, when job growth is expected to average 1.4%. The budget crippled Government sector is set upon by revenue crunches that run from the state level down to counties and small cities. Job losses will persist in the State and Local Government sector through 2013 when growth will be -0.4%. From that point, growth will turn weakly positive and average 0.8% during 2014-2016. As Florida’s economy continues to expand, the need for state and local government services will grow as well, and employment growth will be part of the solution to the expanding demands of a growing economy. No such reversal of fortune is in the cards for Federal Government employment growth. As we stand at the precipice of the fiscal cliff, awaiting a solution to our federal deficit and debt problems, part of the solution will be cuts in federal spending. Job losses are expected


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

through the end of 2016 and beyond as the U.S. begins to come to grips with these massive budget deficits and a ballooning national debt. Federal Government employment in Florida will contract at an average rate of 1.9% during 2013-2016.

U ne mp loy m e n t Unemployment rates in Florida remain elevated, and stand at 8.5% as of October 2012. Like the national unemployment rate, they have come down substantially from their peaks. On the surface, this appears to be all good news for the labor market in the state. A deeper look at the data reveals some flaws in this image. Part of the problem is that these declines have been in a large part driven by the shrinking of the labor force, and therefore are somewhat misleading when taken out of this context to assess the health of the labor market in Florida. Florida’s economy as measured by Real Gross State Product has grown continuously since the 1st quarter of 2010, but only at an average growth rate of 1.0% through 2012. As we learned during the housing boom, robust growth brings down the unemployment rate quickly, and labor force shrinkage notwithstanding, we have not yet experienced the type of growth that can do more than lower the unemployment rate gradually. The unemployment rate in Florida stood at 8.5% in October of 2012 for a 2.9% decline from peak levels of unemployment in 2010. The tepid growth Florida has experienced thus far in the recovery only chips away at the unemployment rate; the robust growth that is necessary to ratchet the unemployment rate down will not arrive in Florida until the end of 2013 and 2014. The labor market will continue to wait for the high growth cavalry to arrive and bring substantial and meaningful declines in the rate of unemployment that to date have been driven by a shrinking labor force.

labor market cycle. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not materialized, will make reducing the unemployment rate a more difficult and longdrawn-out process. When discouraged workers reenter the job hunt there will be upward pressure on the unemployment rate, the reverse of what we have seen for much of the recovery. If the unemployment rate is rising because of this reentry, it will be, ironically, a good sign and an indication that the labor market is healing. The unemployment rate is expected to continue a gradual, drawn-out decline that will push it down to 6.7% by the end of 2016. This problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers – those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months and those who have given up searching for a job entirely — is substantial. When adding these workers to the top-level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently at 16.4% for the fourth quarter of 2011 through third quarter of 2012 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This paints a much grimmer picture of the state of the labor market in Florida than does the headline unemployment rate of 8.5%. Underemployment in the state will bear watching in the months and years to come, as there have been indications that companies may rely more upon parttime workers to fill their labor needs, thus eschewing the costs of providing healthcare or the penalties for not doing so for full-time employees. Unintended consequences of healthcare reform will become more prevalent as the law is implemented in the years ahead.

The labor market cycle generally lags the business cycle overall, but the staccato nature of this recovery and the uncertainty that continues to permeate the economy from the healthcare reform, to the fiscal cliff, to the European debt crisis, has lengthened this jobless recovery well beyond the expected normal lags. As payroll job growth finally gains momentum in 2013 it will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who have abandoned the job search during this lengthy Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

721.1

740.7

687.3

Personal Income and GSP 722.4 755.4 779.8 813.3

859.1

908.7

961.8

4.5 5.7

2.7 4.6

-7.2 -4.8

5.1 3.8

4.6 5.1

3.2 3.5

4.3 3.9

5.6 5.0

5.8 5.0

5.8 4.9

683.5

679.9

630.6

650.2

663.8

673.6

694.6

722.8

752.3

782.4

1.7 -4.6

-0.5 -0.6

-7.2 -10.1

3.2 12.7

2.1 4.2

1.5 4.0

3.1 5.2

4.1 6.7

4.1 6.2

4.0 4.2 705.2

609.0

617.2

581.5

600.2

605.8

613.1

628.6

652.6

678.6

Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

1.7

1.3

-5.8

3.3

1.0

1.2

2.5

3.8

4.0

3.9

U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

2.4

2.4

-2.8

1.8

1.3

1.6

760.9 4.0 714.6 1.0

748.1 -1.7 689.4 -3.5

726.2 -2.9 652.0 -5.4

736.1 1.4 657.7 0.9

754.3 2.5 661.1 0.5

782.2 3.7 672.0 1.6

2.2 815.8 4.3 687.6 2.3

3.0 857.0 5.1 710.5 3.3

3.2 907.2 5.8 739.0 4.0

3.1 956.5 5.4 765.9 3.6

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -2.2 -6.0 -0.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.1 0.2 -1.7 0.7 1.3 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 6.3 10.4 11.3 10.5 8.8 8.2 7.8 7.3

1.9 1.4 6.8

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

3.0 3.7 4.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

9.0

8.1

7.7

7.3

6.7

6.3

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.1

-0.6

-4.4

-0.7

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.7

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

0.3 1.6 -8.7 -4.2 -1.5

-3.5 -7.8 -17.2 -7.0 -6.2

-6.3 -11.5 -23.1 -12.7 -10.0

-0.8 -0.6 -11.3 -4.5 -3.6

1.1 4.0 -5.8 0.8 0.2

0.9 0.0 -4.3 0.5 0.7

1.9 0.6 4.0 0.4 0.3

2.3 -1.4 11.2 1.6 -0.7

2.8 -1.5 15.2 1.6 -0.7

2.5 -1.8 11.3 1.2 -0.5

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

-5.4 0.1 1.5 1.3 -1.0

-7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -4.6

-14.0 -6.7 -8.0 -6.6 -7.4

-4.9 -2.0 -2.9 0.2 -1.9

1.1 2.8 0.0 2.4 1.4

0.4 1.5 0.2 1.7 1.2

0.5 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.1

2.8 3.6 2.5 0.6 1.7

2.8 3.8 3.0 1.0 0.3

2.0 3.6 2.6 1.7 0.2

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3

-6.3 2.1 -1.4 -3.4

-8.2 1.2 -4.5 -8.6

1.3 1.9 0.5 -4.6

3.6 2.3 2.3 -1.2

3.0 1.8 1.8 0.3

5.4 2.0 2.3 1.3

5.6 2.0 0.8 1.3

6.6 2.4 0.1 2.4

4.7 3.2 -0.1 1.8

Federal Gov't.

0.2

1.4

2.2

7.2

-5.5

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

-1.9

-1.1

State & Local Gov't.

2.4

0.2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.7

-1.1

-0.4

0.5

0.9

1.0

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Population and Migration 18,385.1 18,540.8 18,682.0 18,870.3 19,085.6 19,316.6 19,581.1 19,885.0 20,219.8 20,568.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

117.7 -34.6

84.2 -29.1

107.6 43.7

154.7 58.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

101.4

61.6

33.6

75.2 26.2

40.9 20.7

3.4

4.2

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch Year ago)

12

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

179.1 19.8

192.5 7.4

223.0 15.9

256.0 14.8

276.9 8.2

285.1 3.0

38.2

Housing 41.4 63.8

96.8

128.4

164.4

185.4

26.8 6.8

31.8 6.4

31.9 9.4

45.0 18.8

62.6 34.1

85.8 42.5

114.6 49.8

129.3 56.1

-0.2

1.2

Consumer Prices 3.0 2.1

1.5

1.9

1.8

1.9


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

797.9 3.8 3.5

808.5 3.9 3.6

818.4 4.6 4.1

828.5 5.0 4.4

842.5 5.6 4.9

852.8 5.5 4.9

864.5 5.6 5.1

876.6 5.8 5.2

890.1 5.6 5.0

902.3 5.8 5.1

914.9 5.8 5.0

927.5 5.8 4.9

942.6 5.9 5.1

955.2 5.9 4.9

684.4

692.1

697.8

704.1

713.1

718.9

725.9

733.2

741.0

748.6

756.3

763.2

772.3

778.9

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

2.6 4.4 620.8 2.3 2.4

2.7 4.9 626.4 2.1 2.1

3.4 5.5 630.6 2.7 2.2

3.7 6.0 636.4 3.1 2.2

4.2 5.9 643.4 3.6 2.6

3.9 6.6 649.1 3.6 2.9

4.0 7.0 655.6 4.0 3.2

4.1 7.3 662.2 4.1 3.3

3.9 7.2 667.2 3.7 3.0

4.1 6.6 674.9 4.0 3.3

4.2 6.0 682.8 4.2 3.4

4.1 5.2 689.4 4.1 3.2

4.2 4.7 695.5 4.3 3.5

4.0 4.2 701.7 4.0 3.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

803.2 4.1 681.3 1.9

810.4 4.2 684.7 2.1

819.8 4.1 689.3 2.4

829.7 4.7 695.2 2.9

839.4 4.5 700.3 2.8

850.5 4.9 706.5 3.2

862.6 5.2 713.6 3.5

875.7 5.5 721.4 3.8

888.6 5.9 728.3 4.0

901.0 5.9 735.6 4.1

913.4 5.9 742.8 4.1

925.6 5.7 749.5 3.9

938.0 5.6 756.0 3.8

949.9 5.4 762.2 3.6

1.9 0.8 8.4 7.8

1.9 1.5 8.3 7.8

2.2 1.5 7.3 6.7

2.2 1.5 7.2 6.6

2.2 1.5 7.1 6.5

2.1 1.5 7.0 6.4

1.9 1.4 6.9 6.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.4 1.7 8.2 7.7

1.9 1.5 8.1 7.6

1.9 1.5 8.0 7.5

1.9 1.5 7.9 7.4

2.0 1.5 7.8 7.2

2.0 1.5 7.6 7.1

2.1 1.5 7.5 6.9

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida

1.3 1.4

1.5 1.8

1.7 2.2

1.7 2.3

1.7 2.3

1.8 2.3

1.8 2.3

1.9 2.5

1.9 2.6

2.0 2.8

2.0 2.8

1.9 2.8

1.8 2.7

1.7 2.6

Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

1.3 -0.4 -0.7 1.1 -1.6

0.3 4.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2

0.6 5.3 1.1 0.2 1.6

0.2 6.6 1.3 -0.2 2.1

-0.6 8.4 1.7 -0.5 2.7

-1.3 10.5 1.5 -0.8 2.7

-1.7 12.3 1.5 -0.9 2.7

-1.8 13.7 1.8 -0.8 3.2

-1.7 14.9 1.8 -0.7 3.0

-1.5 15.4 1.7 -0.6 2.9

-1.4 15.6 1.6 -0.7 2.7

-1.4 14.9 1.5 -0.6 2.5

-1.5 13.7 1.3 -0.7 2.3

-1.7 12.1 1.2 -0.5 2.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services

-1.2 1.7 1.6 0.8 5.3

0.4 1.7 1.9 0.4 5.2

2.0 2.6 1.7 1.4 5.3

3.4 2.5 1.1 1.6 5.9

3.9 2.4 0.7 1.7 5.3

3.6 2.5 0.6 1.9 5.3

3.5 2.4 0.4 1.8 5.7

3.5 2.6 0.4 1.3 6.3

3.7 2.9 0.6 0.9 6.9

3.8 3.1 0.8 0.4 7.0

3.9 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.6

3.8 3.0 1.4 -0.1 6.0

3.6 2.7 1.7 -0.1 5.4

3.6 2.7 1.8 0.0 4.8

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

2.3 2.1 0.2 -1.7 -0.9

2.1 2.6 1.7 -1.8 -0.8

2.0 2.5 1.7 -2.2 0.0

1.7 2.1 1.7 -2.5 0.3

2.0 1.7 1.6 -2.5 0.5

2.1 1.0 0.5 -2.5 0.5

1.9 0.4 1.0 -2.5 0.6

2.2 -0.1 2.1 -2.5 0.6

2.0 -0.1 2.5 -2.3 0.7

2.3 -0.1 2.7 -2.0 0.8

2.6 0.2 2.3 -1.8 1.0

2.7 0.4 2.0 -1.5 1.0

3.0 0.2 2.0 -1.3 1.0

3.2 0.0 1.8 -1.2 1.0

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous)

Population and Migration 19,476.0 19,544.5 19,615.3 19,688.7 19,764.7 19,843.4 19,924.6 20,007.3 20,091.3 20,176.4 20,262.4 20,349.2 20,436.3 20,524.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 52.9 54.8 56.6 58.7 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 67.9 68.9 69.7 70.3 70.6 70.9

(%Ch Year ago)

15.7

19.0

13.7

15.1

15.0

15.1

15.4

13.8

11.7

9.3

6.7

5.2

3.9

2.9

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

87.6 56.4

92.4 59.6

99.5 64.8

107.6 69.8

114.2 74.1

123.4 82.2

132.9 89.6

143.1 97.4

152.2 104.5

161.0 112.1

169.2 118.6

175.1 123.2

180.0 126.2

183.4 128.1

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

31.2

32.8

34.7

37.8

40.0

41.2

43.3

45.6

47.6

48.9

50.6

51.8

53.9

55.3

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.9

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

2.0

1.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,419.3 7,458.6 7,504.0 7,548.5 7,588.1 7,629.2 7,677.7 7,733.6 7,786.4 7,840.0 7,895.5 7,949.8 7,997.6 8,041.4

Manufacturing

312.2

313.9

315.2

315.7

317.3

318.6

319.9

321.5

323.0

324.1

325.0

326.2

327.2

328.1

Durable Goods

205.5

207.1

208.5

209.3

211.1

212.7

214.2

216.0

217.6

218.8

220.0

221.3

222.5

223.4

Wood Products

8.4

8.8

9.1

9.5

9.9

10.4

11.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.8

13.1

13.2

13.4

Computer & Electronics

42.9

42.5

42.2

42.0

41.9

41.8

41.8

42.0

42.1

42.2

42.2

42.2

42.3

42.5

Transportation Equipment

35.2

35.7

36.2

36.6

36.9

37.3

37.6

37.8

37.9

37.9

38.0

38.0

37.8

37.6

106.7

106.7

106.6

106.4

106.2

105.9

105.7

105.5

105.5

105.2

105.0

104.9

104.8

104.7

30.2

30.2

30.3

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.5

30.6

30.5

30.5

30.5

30.4

30.4

30.4

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,107.1 7,144.8 7,188.8 7,232.8 7,270.8 7,310.6 7,357.7 7,412.1 7,463.4 7,515.9 7,570.5 7,623.6 7,670.3 7,713.3 5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

Construction

320.3

324.4

330.0

338.1

347.4

358.5

370.5

384.5

399.1

413.8

428.4

441.8

453.7

463.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

233.4

235.9

238.1

240.4

242.4

244.4

246.5

248.9

251.5

253.8

256.1

258.5

260.6

262.8

Wholesale Trade

332.3

335.0

338.1

340.1

342.1

344.2

346.1

348.0

349.9

351.1

352.3

353.8

355.0

356.1

Retail Trade

984.0

985.8

989.5

992.3

991.2

992.1

993.8

996.4

996.9

999.8 1,004.8 1,010.6 1,014.3 1,018.1

Information

134.6

136.6

137.1

136.7

136.8

137.3

138.4

139.5

140.3

141.0

Prof. & Bus. Services

141.6

142.3

143.0

143.5

1,119.9 1,135.5 1,151.3 1,167.3 1,178.9 1,195.6 1,217.4 1,240.4 1,260.5 1,279.6 1,298.2 1,314.5 1,328.0 1,340.8

Admin. & Support

561.8

572.2

581.9

590.5

599.3

611.4

629.0

647.1

665.6

682.0

699.2

714.4

728.7

741.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

473.6

478.8

484.8

492.1

494.7

499.2

503.3

508.2

509.7

512.3

513.7

514.8

513.8

513.4

84.5

84.6

84.6

84.7

84.9

85.0

85.1

85.1

85.2

85.3

85.4

85.4

85.5

85.5

Financial Activities

491.1

492.2

494.4

497.2

499.4

501.7

503.2

503.9

504.0

503.7

503.6

503.4

503.7

503.8

Real Estate & Rent

155.0

155.7

156.6

157.8

158.9

160.2

161.3

162.3

162.8

163.2

163.5

163.8

164.2

164.4

Fin. & Insurance

336.1

336.5

337.7

339.4

340.5

341.5

341.9

341.6

341.2

340.4

340.1

339.6

339.5

339.4

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,141.5 1,144.3 1,150.8 1,155.7 1,163.8 1,168.2 1,173.2 1,180.6 1,186.8 1,195.5 1,203.8 1,212.3 1,222.4 1,233.4

Education Services

152.7

152.6

152.5

Health Services

988.7

991.7

998.3 1,003.3 1,011.6 1,016.7 1,022.2 1,030.0 1,036.5 1,045.6 1,054.3 1,063.1 1,073.4 1,084.7

Leisure & Hospitality

983.6

989.8

993.9

998.1 1,000.5

999.7

997.8

997.4

999.4

999.2

999.5 1,001.0 1,000.9

998.9

Other Services

302.6

303.0

303.8

304.8

306.5

307.3

307.2

307.5

307.8

308.1

309.4

Government

152.4

152.2

305.7

151.6

151.0

150.6

150.3

149.9

149.5

149.2

308.3

149.0

308.9

148.7

1,077.5 1,077.3 1,077.4 1,077.9 1,078.6 1,078.9 1,079.5 1,080.7 1,082.2 1,084.4 1,086.5 1,088.4 1,090.6 1,092.7

Federal Gov't.

130.3

129.5

128.7

127.8

127.0

126.2

125.4

124.7

124.1

123.6

123.2

122.8

122.5

122.2

State & Local Gov't

947.2

947.8

948.8

950.1

951.6

952.7

954.1

956.0

958.1

960.8

963.3

965.6

968.1

970.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,019.7

7,736.1

7,249.3

7,192.9

7274.3

7,340.1

7,482.6

7,657.1

7,867.9

8,065.1

Manufacturing

399.1

371.1

323.9

309.0

311.4

313.0

314.2

319.4

324.6

328.5

Durable Goods

269.3

249.3

214.4

203.6

205.8

206.6

207.6

213.5

219.4

223.9

Wood Products

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.4

9.0

10.7

12.6

13.4

Computer & Electronics

49.2

48.0

44.7

43.0

43.1

42.9

42.4

41.9

42.2

42.6

Transportation Equipment

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

34.2

34.8

35.9

37.4

37.9

37.5

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

105.6

106.3

106.6

105.8

105.2

104.6

31.4

29.6

27.9

27.5

28.6

29.7

30.3

30.5

30.5

30.4

7,620.7

7,365.0

6,925.4

6,883.9

6,962.9

7,027.1

7,168.4

7,337.8

7,543.3

7,736.7

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

Construction

622.8

515.8

396.6

350.7

330.2

315.8

328.2

365.2

420.8

468.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

251.1

245.9

229.4

224.7

230.9

234.3

237.0

245.6

254.9

264.0

Wholesale Trade

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

351.8

356.6

1,027.0

997.4

931.6

933.8

956.5

972.6

987.9

993.4

1,003.0

1,020.2

161.3

155.8

142.4

135.7

134.1

134.5

136.2

138.0

141.3

143.8

1,166.1

1,092.8

1,002.6

1,015.7

1,052.6

1,084.6

1,143.5

1,208.1

1,288.2

1,348.3

Admin. & Support

624.7

553.5

491.8

504.6

526.0

539.9

576.6

621.7

690.3

749.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

460.3

456.5

430.9

432.1

445.4

460.9

482.3

501.3

512.6

513.1

81.0

82.8

79.9

79.1

81.2

83.9

84.6

85.0

85.3

85.5

Financial Activities

549.2

524.1

485.4

476.1

482.9

488.5

493.7

502.0

503.7

504.6

Real Estate & Rent

178.1

169.9

154.9

150.3

151.8

154.3

156.3

160.7

163.4

164.8

Fin. & Insurance

371.1

354.2

330.5

325.8

331.1

334.2

337.4

341.4

340.3

339.8

1,027.1

1,048.5

1,061.1

1,081.1

1,105.9

1,125.6

1,148.1

1,171.5

1,199.6

1,237.7

Education Services

135.7

139.6

144.6

151.5

154.1

153.2

152.6

151.3

149.7

148.4

Health Services

891.4

908.9

916.5

929.6

951.8

972.3

995.5

1,020.1

1,049.9

1,089.3

Leisure & Hospitality

983.9

970.5

926.6

931.0

952.3

969.0

991.3

998.9

999.8

999.0

Other Services

345.7

335.6

312.5

309.2

306.5

303.7

303.5

306.7

307.9

309.6

1,123.2

1,126.9

1,113.9

1,111.7

1,096.9

1,083.8

1,077.5

1,079.4

1,085.4

1,094.0

Federal Gov't.

128.0

129.8

132.6

142.2

133.8

131.8

129.1

125.8

123.4

122.1

State & Local Gov't

995.2

997.1

981.3

969.5

963.1

952.1

948.5

953.6

961.9

971.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

797.9

808.5

818.4

828.5

842.5

852.8

864.5

876.6

890.1

902.3

914.9

927.5

942.6

955.2

Wages & Salaries

355.3

359.5

364.0

368.3

373.0

377.6

382.6

388.0

393.5

398.8

404.3

409.8

415.2

420.2

Other Labor Income

82.6

83.6

84.5

85.7

87.3

88.5

89.6

90.9

92.5

94.0

95.7

97.4

99.1

100.7

Nonfarm

49.5

50.3

51.0

51.9

52.8

53.9

54.8

55.8

56.7

57.7

58.5

59.2

59.8

60.6

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Farm Property Income

197.5

200.9

203.7

206.5

209.6

212.2

215.9

219.6

223.6

227.5

231.6

235.5

239.8

244.0

Transfer Payments

160.4

162.2

163.8

165.4

171.3

172.9

174.5

175.9

181.2

182.5

183.9

185.7

191.8

193.6

50.7

51.3

51.8

52.6

54.7

55.5

56.2

57.0

60.8

61.7

62.5

63.5

66.6

67.3

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

684.4

692.1

697.8

704.1

713.1

718.9

725.9

733.2

741.0

748.6

756.3

763.2

772.3

778.9

Wages & Salaries

304.7

307.8

310.4

313.0

315.7

318.3

321.3

324.5

327.6

330.9

334.3

337.2

340.2

342.6

Other Labor Income

70.8

71.5

72.0

72.8

73.9

74.6

75.2

76.1

77.0

78.0

79.1

80.2

81.2

82.1

Nonfarm

42.5

43.0

43.5

44.1

44.7

45.4

46.0

46.7

47.2

47.9

48.3

48.7

49.0

49.4

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

Farm Property Income

169.4

172.0

173.6

175.5

177.4

178.8

181.3

183.7

186.2

188.7

191.5

193.8

196.5

199.0

Transfer Payments

137.6

138.8

139.6

140.6

145.0

145.7

146.5

147.1

150.8

151.4

152.0

152.8

157.1

157.9

43.5

43.9

44.2

44.7

46.3

46.8

47.2

47.7

50.6

51.2

51.7

52.2

54.6

54.9

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1135.99 1180.89 1203.23 1226.40 1247.35 1277.42 1305.92 1330.43 1338.08 1349.05 1356.83 1371.66

1388.3

1396.1

Social Insurance

Retail Sales (Billions $)

284.6

286.1

288.9

291.3

293.6

296.7

300.0

303.0

305.7

308.5

311.7

315.5

318.9

322.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

244.1

244.9

246.3

247.6

248.5

250.1

251.9

253.5

254.5

255.9

257.6

259.6

261.3

263.3

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

721.1

740.7

687.3

722.4

755.4

779.8

813.3

859.1

908.7

961.8

Wages & Salaries

344.7

339.8

321.6

324.2

334.0

346.6

361.8

380.3

401.6

422.8

Other Labor Income

73.1

74.4

73.8

75.1

77.8

80.4

84.1

89.1

94.9

101.5

Nonfarm

43.7

41.0

38.5

44.8

46.3

48.0

50.7

54.3

58.0

60.9

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Property Income

196.5

211.2

161.8

176.4

187.3

192.3

202.2

214.3

229.6

246.2

Transfer Payments

111.2

122.5

138.2

149.0

153.3

157.2

162.9

173.6

183.3

194.7

50.9

50.8

49.2

50.0

46.3

48.1

51.6

55.9

62.1

67.8

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income

683.5

679.9

630.6

650.2

663.8

673.6

694.6

722.8

752.3

782.4

Wages & Salaries

326.7

311.9

295.0

291.9

293.5

299.5

309.0

320.0

332.5

344.0

Other Labor Income

69.3

68.3

67.7

67.6

68.4

69.5

71.8

75.0

78.6

82.6

Nonfarm

41.4

37.6

35.3

40.3

40.7

41.4

43.3

45.7

48.0

49.5

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.8

Property Income

186.3

193.9

148.5

158.8

164.6

166.2

172.6

180.3

190.1

200.2

Transfer Payments

105.4

112.4

126.8

134.2

134.7

135.8

139.2

146.1

151.8

158.4

48.3

46.6

45.1

45.0

40.7

41.6

44.1

47.0

51.4

55.1

1242.2

952.0

695.3

849.0

900.1

1023.9

1186.6

1290.3

1353.9

1402.0

Retail Sales (Billions $)

262.3

255.6

230.1

246.2

264.4

277.0

287.7

298.4

310.3

324.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

248.7

234.6

211.1

221.6

232.4

239.3

245.7

251.0

256.9

264.1

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

8%

200.0

7%

150.0

6%

100.0

5%

50.0

4%

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

22

9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

3%


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 60%

(% change year ago)

40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Population (Thousands)

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0

26

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

Florida adds more Construction jobs • Since September 2011 the state of Florida added 4,200 construction jobs. • The additional 4,200 jobs represented an increase of 1.3 percent of construction jobs. • Florida added the second most construction jobs of any state in the union, following only Missouri, which added 4,300 jobs.

Governor Scott seeks to continue to cut business taxes • Governor Scott continues to pursue the goal of increasing the business tax exemption to $75,000 from the current $50,000. • Last year the Florida Legislator increased the exemption from $10,000 to $50,000, which is expected to reduce the amount of taxes collected by the state of Florida by $29.4 million.

Source: Sun Sentinel, October 25, 2012

Source: The Ledger, November 8, 2012

Florida makes strides in the field of health services and manufacturing • Governor Scott announced the arrival of Prime Therapeutics and Accuform Sign to Orlando and Brooksville respectively. • The two groups received a combined $6.4 million in tax incentives with the hope of generating $33.1 million in private investment. • The two groups look to add 484 jobs in the state of Florida.

Attorney General Pam Bondi, lawmakers quibble over foreclosure money • Even after receiving the money six months ago, Florida has not decided how it should spend the more than $300 million reserved for homeowners. • Florida has not contrived a plan for the money even though Florida ranks No. 1 in the nation in foreclosures and the number of people on the verge of losing their homes.

Source: The Florida Current, October 4, 2012

Florida’s consumers lose confidence after the election • Following the 2012 Presidential election, consumer confidence in the state of Florida dropped four points from 80 to 76. • The confidence of Florida Democrats increased from 99 in October to 103 in November, but the confidence of Florida Republicans decreased from 62 to 50.

Florida asking for money for Hurricane Sandy relief • While not directly hitting the state of Florida, Superstorm Sandy caused more than $67.2 million in damages. • Superstorm Sandy caused about $24 million in damages to state beaches. Most of the damage was to beaches in the Palm Bay-Boca Raton area. • Classifying the damage as a “major disaster” would allow officials to recuperate at least 75 percent of the cost of the damage. Source: The Palm Beach Post, November 5, 2012 Governor Scott releases “College and Career FIRST” plan • The plan aims to prepare students for jobs or higher education in the STEM areas of science, technology, engineering, and math. • The plan aims to meet these accomplishments by transitioning in new testing—common core standards instead of the FCAT, support for teachers, and flexibility in education regulations. • Scott’s plan would provide $2 million dollars to create competitive teaching grants.

Source: The Miami Herald, November 28, 2012

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 28, 2012 Florida’s unemployment fund almost in the black • Florida is on track to repay almost $550 million dollars by May 2013. • Earlier this year the Florida Legislature passed a bill reducing the per month minimum business payout per employee from $120 to $80. This bill is expected to reduce costs by $500 million. Source: Herald Tribune, November 29, 2012

Source: The Florida Current, October 25, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


Met r o s

Decembe r 2 012

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 5.2 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.7. Average annual wage will be the second lowest level of the studied areas at 41.2. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. Population growth will be 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 12,964.80 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 246,763 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.6% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,312 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 • Halifax Medical Center – 3,957 • Volusia County Government – 3,280 • Publix – 2,486 • State of Florida – 2,361 • Daytona State College – 1,797 • U.S. Government – 1,422 • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.3 percent each year. Unemployment will average 8.2 percent, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 9.9 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 5.2 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sectors expected to experience a decline at -1.5 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Local manufacturer tapping green market • Kingspan Insulated Panels North America sent a team of officials from its plant in DeLand to the 2012 Greenbuild International Expo in San Francisco earlier this month to show off some of its new products and to tout a “deep-energy retro-fitting” project in Boston of which the company is taking part. • According to the 2012 Green Building Trends report by the trade publication McGraw-Hill Construction World, 63 percent of worldwide construction firms plan to use green-building materials when building new offices and factories. That number is up from 48 percent in 2008. • Kingspan’s primary North American office and biggest production plant is in DeLand, where it employs 140 workers. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 23, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

National TV exposure boosts business for local hotel

• The Dream Inn in Daytona Beach Shores was the subject of the Aug. 6 finale of the Travel Channel’s “Hotel Impossible.”

• The show follows hotel-fixer Anthony Melchiorri and a crew of cleaning personnel as they restore and renovate struggling hotels. The show performed at least $25,000 in upgrades to his hotel to make the outdated facilities more competitive. • Business has been way up since the show aired. Occupancy was up nearly 50 percent in September, and it stayed strong through October.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 27, 2012

Special events give area hotels a welcome boost

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University’s Wings and Waves Air Show in Daytona Beach (Oct. 13-14) and the annual Biketoberfest (Oct. 1821) both helped spur the increase in occupancy rates for Volusia County hotels, according to the latest occupancy report. • The average daily room rental rate for hotels in the county rose to $99.61, a 7 percent increase over the $92.72 average daily rate in October 2011. • Last month marked the seventh time in the last ten months that hotel occupancy rates in Volusia County have been higher than they were the corresponding month last year. The only exceptions came in May and July, when occupancies were down. Occupancies in June held steady compared with last year.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 26, 2012

8 years in the making, shopping center in Port Orange finally getting built

• Sooner Investment and Collett and Associates are partners in developing the 162,000-squarefoot Altamira Village shopping center. The partnership is called Four Lanes LLC.

30

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

• Developers began acquiring the land for the proposed the 33-acre shopping center eight years ago, but the city did not approve the project’s site plan until this past January.

• Construction delays cost the developers two possible tenants: department store chains Bealls and Kohl’s. The latter decided to build its Port Orange store in 2008 on the other side of the I-95 at Westport Square shopping center. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 21, 2012

Holiday in the Hammock - Merchants hope event will draw local shoppers • Members of the newly formed Hammock Business Association are setting their sights on promoting the area’s first Holiday in the Hammock arts and gallery tour.

• The Dec. 1 event is intended to herald the holidays by showcasing the work of local artists and promoting the many businesses nestled throughout the Hammock on the easternmost side of the county.

• Ten businesses, including five art galleries or studios, will participate in the tour. Other local artists have been invited to exhibit their work as well. All of the artists will pay a fee to be part of Holiday in the Hammock and proceeds will benefit the Flagler Beach Rotary Club’s Project Share program, which helps make Christmas dreams come true for local children in need. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 21, 2012


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Deltona Payroll Employment

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 13500.0 13000.0 12500.0 12000.0 11500.0 11000.0 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

0.8

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL December 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.1 5.4 6.1 10.0

16.6 2.8 6.0 10.6

15.3 -7.4 5.6 9.7

16.0 4.3 5.7 10.3

16.7 4.7 5.9 10.8

17.2 2.8 6.0 11.2

17.9 4.1 6.3 11.6

18.9 5.3 6.6 12.3

19.9 5.5 7.0 13.0

21.1 5.9 7.3 13.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 2.7

15.2 -0.4

14.1 -7.5

14.4 2.3

14.7 2.2

14.9 1.0

15.3 2.9

15.9 3.7

16.5 3.9

17.1 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.4 30.7

33.4 30.6

31.0 28.5

32.4 29.1

33.8 29.7

34.7 30.0

35.8 30.6

37.3 31.4

38.8 32.1

40.2 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.3 3.8

35.8 1.5

35.5 -0.9

36.5 2.7

37.5 2.7

38.6 2.9

39.5 2.5

40.6 2.8

41.8 2.8

43.0 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.5 -0.8

166.8 -3.3

157.3 -5.7

154.5 -1.8

156.4 1.2

155.1 -0.9

158.2 2.0

161.4 2.0

165.4 2.5

169.5 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.2

7.8 -13.9

7.5 -3.9

8.1 8.2

8.2 1.2

8.3 1.2

8.5 1.9

8.6 1.8

8.7 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

162.2 -0.7

157.7 -2.7

149.5 -5.2

147.0 -1.7

148.3 0.8

146.8 -1.0

149.9 2.1

152.9 2.0

156.8 2.5

160.8 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 -10.4

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.8 -11.7

7.3 -6.2

7.1 -2.6

7.3 3.2

8.1 10.8

9.3 14.4

10.4 11.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 1.1

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.2

30.0 -0.5

30.2 0.7

29.9 -0.8

30.4 1.4

30.6 0.8

31.0 1.5

31.8 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.8 2.4

4.9 23.2 2.1

4.7 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.5 1.8

4.8 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.6 1.9

4.9 23.7 2.0

5.1 23.9 2.0

5.3 24.4 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2.0 -10.9

2.0 -1.2

2.0 -1.2

2.0 1.3

2.1 1.5

2.1 3.1

2.2 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.0 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 0.7

7.2 1.3

7.3 0.4

7.4 1.6

7.6 2.2

7.6 0.6

7.6 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.5 0.2

16.9 -3.0

17.2 1.8

16.3 -5.3

17.0 3.8

17.8 5.2

19.1 6.8

20.0 5.0

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.1

31.6 0.4

32.3 2.0

32.3 0.0

33.1 2.5

33.8 2.0

34.4 2.1

35.4 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21.2 -5.8

21.1 -0.4

22.0 4.1

21.8 -0.8

22.4 2.7

22.4 0.1

22.4 -0.4

22.3 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1.0

8.5 3.1

8.1 -3.9

7.9 -3.2

7.9 0.1

8.0 1.3

8.1 1.3

8.1 0.7

8.2 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0.0

1.4 2.4

1.5 5.8

1.3 -15.3

1.1 -11.3

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.3

1.1 -0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 1.5

22.2 -4.0

21.1 -5.0

20.7 -1.7

20.9 0.7

21.1 0.9

21.2 0.7

21.4 0.7

21.6 1.0

21.9 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

498.4 0.7

497.0 -0.3

494.8 -0.4

494.5 -0.1

494.9 0.1

496.3 0.3

500.0 0.7

505.8 1.2

513.7 1.5

523.7 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

253.3 2.5

254.7 0.5

252.0 -1.1

251.2 -0.3

254.1 1.2

251.5 -1.0

255.0 1.4

258.6 1.4

262.5 1.5

265.9 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

32

4.0

6.5

10.6

11.5

10.8

9.0

8.5

8.5

8.2

7.7

2184.6 1594.6 590.0

1400.1 1036.4 364.0

661.6 601.8 60.0

720.6 659.3 61.0

1033.4 505.1 528.0

882.5 758.4 124.0

1904.1 1579.0 325.0

3242.1 2489.4 753.0

4310.0 3299.0 1011.0

4825.2 3681.9 1143.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL December 2012 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.6 3.9 6.2 11.4

17.8 3.7 6.3 11.6

18 4.2 6.3 11.7

18.2 4.6 6.4 11.8

18.5 5.3 6.5 12.1

18.7 5.2 6.6 12.2

19 5.3 6.6 12.3

19.2 5.4 6.7 12.5

19.5 5.2 6.8 12.7

19.8 5.5 6.9 12.9

20 5.6 7 13

20.3 5.8 7.1 13.2

20.6 5.9 7.2 13.4

20.9 5.9 7.3 13.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 2.7

15.2 2.6

15.4 3

15.5 3.3

15.7 3.9

15.8 3.6

15.9 3.7

16.1 3.7

16.2 3.5

16.4 3.8

16.6 4

16.7 4.1

16.9 4.2

17.1 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.3 30.3

35.7 30.5

36 30.7

36.3 30.9

36.8 31.2

37.1 31.3

37.4 31.4

37.8 31.6

38.2 31.8

38.6 32

38.9 32.2

39.3 32.3

39.7 32.5

40.1 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.1 2.4

39.4 2.2

39.7 2.6

39.9 2.8

40.2 2.7

40.5 2.8

40.8 2.8

41.1 2.9

41.3 2.8

41.6 2.8

41.9 2.8

42.2 2.9

42.6 2.9

42.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

157 1.7

157.8 2.3

158.6 2.1

159.5 2.1

160.3 2.1

160.9 2

161.7 1.9

162.7 2

163.7 2.1

164.8 2.4

166 2.6

167.1 2.7

168.1 2.7

169 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 1

8.3 0.8

8.3 1.4

8.4 1.6

8.4 1.9

8.5 1.7

8.5 1.7

8.5 2

8.6 1.7

8.6 1.8

8.6 1.8

8.7 1.7

8.7 1.5

8.7 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

148.7 1.7

149.5 2.4

150.3 2.1

151.1 2.1

151.9 2.1

152.5 2

153.2 2

154.2 2

155.1 2.2

156.2 2.4

157.3 2.7

158.4 2.7

159.4 2.8

160.3 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 -0.9

7.3 2.7

7.4 4.9

7.6 6.2

7.8 8.1

8 10.1

8.3 11.7

8.6 13.3

8.9 14

9.2 14.5

9.5 14.9

9.8 14.2

10 13.1

10.3 11.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 0.3

30.3 2.3

30.4 1.6

30.5 1.3

30.5 1.1

30.5 0.8

30.6 0.6

30.7 0.6

30.8 0.8

30.9 1.2

31.1 1.7

31.3 2.1

31.5 2.4

31.7 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 23.5 1.9

4.8 23.6 1.9

4.9 23.6 1.9

4.9 23.7 1.9

4.9 23.7 2

4.9 23.7 2

5 23.7 2

5 23.8 2

5 23.8 2

5.1 23.9 2

5.1 24 2

5.2 24.1 2.1

5.2 24.2 2.1

5.2 24.3 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 0.1

2 2.2

2 1.3

2 1.5

2 1.8

2 0.7

2.1 1.3

2.1 2.4

2.1 2.9

2.1 3.3

2.1 3.2

2.1 3.2

2.2 3

2.2 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.8

7.4 1.2

7.4 2.1

7.5 2.4

7.5 2.3

7.5 2.5

7.6 2.3

7.6 1.7

7.6 1

7.6 0.6

7.6 0.4

7.6 0.3

7.6 0.4

7.6 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 0.6

16.9 3.9

17.1 5.2

17.3 5.7

17.4 5

17.7 4.9

18 5.3

18.3 5.7

18.6 6.4

18.9 6.9

19.2 7.1

19.5 6.9

19.7 6.2

19.9 5.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 3.4

33 2.7

33.2 2.2

33.3 1.8

33.5 2.1

33.7 2

33.8 1.9

34 2.1

34.1 1.8

34.4 2.1

34.5 2.2

34.7 2.1

35 2.4

35.2 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.3 4

22.4 3.6

22.5 1.9

22.5 1.5

22.5 1.2

22.5 0.4

22.4 -0.3

22.4 -0.7

22.4 -0.7

22.4 -0.5

22.4 -0.2

22.3 -0.1

22.3 -0.2

22.3 -0.3

8 1.1

8 1.4

8 1.1

8 1.5

8.1 1.3

8.1 1.4

8.1 1.4

8.1 1

8.1 0.8

8.1 0.7

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -1.3

1.1 -3.6

1.1 -1.6

1.1 -2

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.8

1.1 -1.5

1.1 -1.2

1.1 -0.9

1.1 -0.7

1.1 -0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 1.6

21.2 0.5

21.3 0.3

21.3 0.6

21.3 0.8

21.4 0.8

21.4 0.7

21.5 0.7

21.5 0.9

21.6 1

21.6 1.1

21.7 1.2

21.8 1.3

21.9 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

498.2 0.5

499.3 0.7

500.6 0.8

501.9 0.9

503.3 1

504.9 1.1

506.6 1.2

508.4 1.3

510.2 1.4

512.4 1.5

514.8 1.6

517.3 1.7

519.8 1.9

522.4 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

253.7 0.4

254.6 2.2

255.4 1.5

256.4 1.4

257.2 1.4

258.1 1.4

259.1 1.4

260.1 1.4

261 1.5

262 1.5

263 1.5

263.8 1.4

264.6 1.4

265.4 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.6

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.1

8

7.9

7.8

1468 1231 237

1700 1449 251

2034 1694 340

2414 1942 472

2713 2121 592

3117 2415 701

3417 2600 817

3721 2821 900

3987 3025 962

4224 3231 993

4440 3409 1031

4589 3531 1058

4704 3603 1100

4773 3645 1128

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


Gai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively low growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 4.6 percent growth, the lowest of the MSAs studied. Per capita income level is expected to average 32.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 46.3. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 0.9 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 8,698.97 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 1.2 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 5.9 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 8.9 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -2.1.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 137,753 in April 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). • An unemployment rate of 6.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro. This amounts to 8,691 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands HealthCare – 12,588 employees • Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Biomass plant already affecting monthly bills • The biomass plant, scheduled to go online in about one year, is already influencing monthly bills as Gainesville Regional Utilities builds a fund that will cushion against the plant’s future rate impact. • The decision to raise this fuel adjustment “levelization” fund to $18 million this fiscal year and about $22 million by October 2013 was highly debated as electric rates have been maintained despite declining fuel costs. • Much of the controversy comes from the disputed fact that the levelization fund has been in place for years “to level out the spikes” in fuel prices, and the city government is misusing the fund as a protection against an increase in costs that is known to be coming down the pike. Biomass opponents argue that the city has violated its own ordinance by routinely charging customers above the utility’s actual fuel costs. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 25, 2012

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Gai n e s v i l l e

New clinics fill a niche for routine health care • Minute Clinic, the largest provider of retailbased medical clinics in the US, opened a new walk-in medical clinic inside CVS Pharmacy at 3403 SW Archer Road in Gainesville. • Minute Clinic is one of only a few local clinics that strive to make health care more accessible in the dawn of health-care reform. It specializes in treating minor illnesses and injuries, monitoring chronic conditions, such as diabetes and high blood pressure, and doing routine physicals and vaccinations. In all, it intends to fulfill a need between an urgent care clinic and a primary-care doctor’s office. • Overall services are estimated to cost 80% less than they do at the ER and 40-50% less than at primary-care clinics, and MinuteClinic accepts most major insurance plans. According to some estimates, retail health clinics such as MinuteClinic, would reduce health-care costs by $350 million by 2020. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 27, 2012

UF students’ startup Feathr wins Shootout • Feathr, a student startup company, developed an interactive digital business card mobile application and won Top Gun at the second annual Gainesville Area Innovation Network Shootout. • Feathr won $2,500, free accounting and marketing services, membership in the Gainesville Area Chamber of Commerce, and a Stetson hat. • The event gives the companies an opportunity to be mentored in honing their presentations and gives them exposure to investors. Feathr is trying to raise $20,000 for development through crowd-funding at indiegogo.com, but also has other funding options in the works. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 16, 2012

Innovation Hub so far has led to 85 new jobs, $7.2 million in investments • The Innovation Hub business incubator in Gainesville has had 25 companies take part and had 85 jobs created, with $7.2 million in private investment brought in during the first 10 months of the program.

• Hub tenants include multiple companies with information technology, mobile app and social networking technologies, as well as medical devices and other technologies. Many have an affiliation with UF. • Shadow Health and Gamedayr are just two of the companies that grew in Innovation Hub and have since moved into office space that allows them to further their growth. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 5, 2012

UF considering $50 million makeover for O’Connell Center • University of Florida’s O’Connell Center might get a $50 million makeover, with UF paying a chunk of the cost. This reflects the fact that a number of educational activities take place in the O’Connell Center, not just University Athletic Association activity. • UF trustees will vote next week whether the university should pay $10 million of the price, with the athletic association seeking donations to cover the rest of the cost. • The renovation of the arena would include all new seating, club space, a new entrance, and more concessions and shops. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 29, 2012

New web portal puts Gainesville on the map • The launch of GainesvilleConnect.com, a unified web portal, is designed to entice and welcome new businesses, researchers, entrepreneurs, and investors. • Gainesville receives national attention as a center for technology and innovation and GainesvilleConnect.com fills the need for a stronger web presence that was championed by a group of local leaders. The website was created by Florida’s Eden, a local non-profit with years of experience in community development. • More than 25 organizations and businesses representing the cutting edge of local economic development have supported this creation and pledge to use it as their online recruitment tool. Source: The North Central Florida Business Report, December 4, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


Gai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 9000.0

6.0%

7500.0

4.0%

7000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

6500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment

36

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

8.0%

136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0 120.0

2.5

8500.0

10.0%

2.0%

2

Gainesville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


Gai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL December 2012 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 5.2 5.2 4.0

8.7 -5.7 5.2 3.5

9.2 5.0 5.2 3.9

9.5 3.8 5.3 4.2

9.6 1.6 5.4 4.3

10.0 3.2 5.5 4.4

10.4 4.7 5.8 4.7

10.9 5.0 6.0 4.9

11.5 5.4 6.3 5.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 2.8

8.5 1.9

8.0 -5.7

8.2 3.0

8.3 1.3

8.3 -0.2

8.5 2.0

8.8 3.1

9.1 3.3

9.4 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.8 32.1

35.3 32.4

33.1 30.3

34.6 31.1

35.6 31.3

36.0 31.1

36.9 31.5

38.3 32.2

39.8 33.0

41.5 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.2 3.4

39.1 2.3

40.4 3.3

41.0 1.5

41.9 2.3

43.1 2.9

44.3 2.6

45.6 2.9

46.9 2.9

48.3 3.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.6 -4.4

126.9 -0.6

126.0 -0.7

123.8 -1.8

124.5 0.5

125.9 1.1

127.9 1.6

130.1 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 2.0

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16.0

4.4 -5.6

4.4 -0.3

4.4 -0.1

4.5 2.0

4.6 2.1

4.7 2.0

4.8 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

128.4 1.4

127.9 -0.3

122.9 -3.9

122.4 -0.4

121.6 -0.7

119.4 -1.8

120.0 0.5

121.3 1.1

123.2 1.6

125.3 1.7

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9.0

3.8 -10.4

3.6 -5.2

3.6 1.7

4.0 9.3

4.5 13.6

5.0 11.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 3.9

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -7.0

18.0 -1.7

18.1 0.4

17.6 -2.3

17.7 0.1

17.7 0.3

17.9 0.9

18.2 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.3 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 2.6

1.9 -7.0

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -2.8

1.4 -3.7

1.4 0.9

1.4 0.8

1.5 2.5

1.5 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -0.6

6.2 -3.4

6.0 -3.6

5.9 -1.1

5.8 -1.5

5.7 -2.7

5.7 0.6

5.8 2.0

5.9 0.5

5.9 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.7

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.7 2.8

10.3 -3.4

10.6 3.1

11.2 5.1

11.9 6.7

12.5 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -0.6

21.9 2.9

22.0 0.2

22.2 0.9

22.3 0.5

21.8 -2.3

21.9 0.7

22.3 1.6

22.6 1.6

23.1 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.0 4.1

14.5 3.6

13.4 -7.2

13.0 -3.0

12.9 -1.1

12.9 -0.1

13.1 1.9

13.1 0.0

13.1 -0.5

13.0 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.5 -6.1

4.4 -2.6

4.4 -0.1

4.3 -2.6

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.9

4.3 0.3

4.4 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 3.1

4.0 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 11.0

4.5 -5.8

4.3 -3.0

4.2 -2.4

4.1 -2.6

4.0 -2.0

4.0 -1.2

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.8

37.5 -0.8

37.3 -0.5

37.3 0.0

37.5 0.4

37.8 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.6 0.6

264.8 0.5

266.6 0.7

268.2 0.6

270.1 0.7

272.2 0.8

274.7 0.9

277.5 1.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.0 3.7

139.2 1.6

137.5 -1.3

138.2 0.6

138.3 0.0

137.4 -0.6

138.7 1.0

140.6 1.3

142.3 1.2

143.4 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2.9

4.3

7.1

8.0

7.8

6.9

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.5

1450.0 766.6 683.0

1056.7 516.7 540.0

511.1 363.4 148.0

512.6 406.7 106.0

448.8 299.6 149.0

611.5 385.5 226.0

893.8 519.7 374.0

1146.5 693.7 453.0

1474.2 910.1 564.0

1628.2 1003.0 625.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


Gai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.8 2.2 5.5 4.3

9.9 2.7 5.5 4.4

10 3.7 5.6 4.4

10.1 4.2 5.6 4.5

10.3 4.7 5.7 4.6

10.4 4.6 5.7 4.6

10.5 4.6 5.8 4.7

10.6 4.8 5.9 4.7

10.7 4.6 5.9 4.8

10.9 4.9 6 4.9

11 5.2 6.1 4.9

11.2 5.3 6.1 5

11.3 5.4 6.2 5.1

11.5 5.4 6.3 5.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 1.1

8.5 1.6

8.5 2.5

8.6 2.9

8.7 3.3

8.7 3

8.8 3

8.9 3.1

8.9 2.9

9 3.3

9.1 3.5

9.2 3.6

9.3 3.7

9.3 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.4 31.2

36.7 31.4

37 31.6

37.3 31.7

37.8 32

38.1 32.1

38.4 32.3

38.8 32.4

39.2 32.7

39.6 32.9

40 33.1

40.5 33.3

41 33.6

41.3 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 2.5

44.1 2.3

44.4 2.7

44.7 2.9

45.1 2.9

45.4 2.9

45.7 2.9

46.1 3

46.4 2.9

46.7 2.9

47.1 2.9

47.4 3

47.8 3

48.2 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

123.9 -0.7

124.2 0.5

124.7 1.1

125 1.2

125.4 1.2

125.7 1.1

126 1.1

126.5 1.2

127 1.3

127.6 1.5

128.2 1.7

128.7 1.8

129.3 1.8

129.8 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 1.4

4.5 3.3

4.5 1.6

4.5 1.8

4.6 2.1

4.6 1.9

4.6 1.9

4.6 2.3

4.6 2

4.7 2

4.7 2

4.7 1.9

4.7 1.7

4.7 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

119.4 -0.7

119.8 0.4

120.1 1.1

120.5 1.2

120.8 1.2

121.1 1.1

121.4 1

121.9 1.1

122.3 1.2

122.9 1.5

123.5 1.7

124 1.8

124.6 1.8

125 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 -2.1

3.6 0.4

3.7 3.6

3.7 4.9

3.8 6.7

3.9 8.6

4 10.2

4.2 11.8

4.3 12.7

4.4 13.5

4.6 14.2

4.7 13.9

4.9 13

5 11.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 -1.5

17.6 0.1

17.7 1

17.7 0.8

17.7 0.6

17.7 0.3

17.7 0.1

17.7 0.1

17.8 0.3

17.8 0.7

17.9 1.2

18 1.5

18.1 1.8

18.2 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.3 13.1 2.2

2.3 13.1 2.2

2.3 13.1 2.2

2.3 13.2 2.2

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.1 2.3

2.4 13.1 2.3

2.4 13.1 2.3

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 0

1.4 1.9

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.9

1.4 1

1.4 0

1.4 0.5

1.4 1.7

1.5 2.2

1.5 2.6

1.5 2.6

1.5 2.6

1.5 2.7

1.5 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -2

5.7 0.7

5.7 1.9

5.8 2.1

5.8 2

5.8 2.3

5.8 2.1

5.8 1.4

5.8 0.9

5.9 0.5

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.2

5.9 0.3

5.9 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 -0.7

10.6 2.7

10.7 5

10.8 5.6

10.9 4.9

11.1 4.8

11.3 5.1

11.4 5.5

11.6 6.3

11.8 6.8

12 6.9

12.2 6.7

12.3 6.1

12.4 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 -1.1

21.9 0.8

22 1.8

22 1.4

22.2 1.7

22.2 1.6

22.3 1.4

22.4 1.7

22.5 1.3

22.6 1.6

22.7 1.8

22.8 1.7

22.9 2

23.1 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 2.6

13.1 1.9

13.2 1.8

13.2 1.3

13.2 1.1

13.2 0.2

13.1 -0.4

13.1 -0.9

13.1 -0.8

13.1 -0.6

13.1 -0.3

13 -0.2

13 -0.3

13 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -0.9

4.3 0.6

4.3 0.7

4.3 1.1

4.3 0.9

4.3 1

4.3 1

4.3 0.6

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.3

4.3 0.1

4.3 0.3

4.4 0.3

4.4 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -1.1

4.2 -3.3

4.2 -2.4

4.2 -2.8

4.1 -2.7

4.1 -2.6

4.1 -2.6

4.1 -2.6

4 -2.4

4 -2.1

4 -1.9

4 -1.6

4 -1.4

4 -1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 -0.9

37.3 -0.6

37.3 -0.4

37.3 -0.1

37.3 0

37.3 0.1

37.3 0

37.4 0

37.4 0.2

37.5 0.3

37.5 0.5

37.6 0.6

37.7 0.7

37.7 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8352.5

8371.3

8401.8

8445.4

8485.3

8530.8

8582.7

8646.3

8703.7

8769

8833.7

8893

8952.5

9006.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

269.3 0.6

269.8 0.7

270.3 0.7

270.8 0.7

271.3 0.8

271.9 0.8

272.5 0.8

273.1 0.9

273.7 0.9

274.4 0.9

275 0.9

275.7 0.9

276.4 1

277.1 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

138 0.1

138.5 0.7

139 1.7

139.5 1.4

139.9 1.4

140.4 1.3

140.8 1.3

141.2 1.3

141.7 1.2

142.1 1.2

142.5 1.2

142.8 1.1

143 1

143.3 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.1

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

824 466 358

868 497 372

918 540 378

965 577 388

1019 606 413

1087 665 423

1189 723 466

1291 782 509

1375 835 540

1448 893 555

1516 942 575

1558 971 587

1588 985 603

1611 994 617

38

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


J ac k s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.6 percent. The per capita income level is the third highest of the 12 forecasted MSAs at 38.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be the third highest of the MSAs at a level of 51.9. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 57,975.43 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 690,295 in April of 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro in April of 2012. This amounts to 54,534 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 Naval Station Mayport – 12,670 City of Jacksonville – 8,820 Baptist Health Systems – 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 6,400 Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 Citibank (Citi-cards) – 5,000 Mayo Clinic – 4,970 United Parcel Service – 4,100

Source: Duval County Public Schools - City of Jacksonville and Chamber of Commerce Records

Employment growth is expected to be 2.4 percent annually. Unemployment will average 7.2 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 9.6 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 5.2 percent, and then the Education and Health Services sector with 2.5 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an annual growth rate at -1.8 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s 600-space parking garage for downtown Jacksonville wins final approval

• In a 4-2 vote, the Jacksonville Downtown Development Review board approved the architectural details, landscaping, and layout of the proposed parking garage. • The city will spend $3.5 million to partly fund the project, which is being built by Parador Partners of Atlanta.

• There will be 200 spaces on weekdays and 375 spaces on weeknights and weekends set aside for the public. Additional space on the ground floor will include room for street vendors and future retail space. Source: Florida Times-Union, October 12, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville port gains shipping line to Latin America

• The SC line will make twice monthly stops at the Talleyrand terminal to load new General motors vehicles and used heavy equipment.

• The line terminates in Colombia, where brand new vehicles are unloaded and moved straight to dealers throughout Central American and South America.

• Between October 2011 and August 2012, Jacksonville’s port handled 555,633 automobile imports and exports, up 18% from the previous 11-month period. Jacksonville is typically second to New York-New Jersey port as an automobile shipping hub, but was impacted by the drop of automobile manufacturing from the 2011 Japanese tsunami. Source: Florida Times-Union, October 18, 2012

PSS World Medical sold to McKesson for $1.46 billion

• Jacksonville-based PSS World Medical will join with McKesson Group of San Francisco, one of the world’s largest medical industry suppliers.

• The deal could take nearly a half-year to complete, in which PSS World Medical will continue with normal operations. There has been no word on what the acquisition will mean for the 780 PSS employees at the Jacksonville headquarters. • PSS World Medical, which also specializes in health care industry supplies, had $2.1 billion in revenue last year. It will become a part of McKesson’s medical-surgical business. Source: Florida Times-Union, October 25, 2012

CMG Financial to open lending office here, hire as many as 70

• CMG Financial, a California-based private lending firm specializing in home loans, plans to open first quarter 2013 in Greystone Business Park. This will be the firm’s first office on the East Coast.

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

• The firm will initially start with 20 employees, with plans to expand by about 10 positions at a time. As many as 70 people could be hired over the first year. • Estimates of the range of salaries are $50,000 to $200,000 with plans for both experienced and inexperienced workers, capitalizing on the location’s close-proximity to UNF, UF, and FSU. Source: Florida Times-Union, November 8, 2012

GE awarded $265 million contract to complete in Jacksonville

• GE was awarded a 3-year $265 million contract by the U.S. Department of Defense to repair, replace, and provide program support on F/A 18 A-D engine components. • The work on 35 F404 engines will be completed in Jacksonville at the Fleet Readiness Center Southeast based Naval Air Station.

• Almost 1,000 military personnel, 1,000 contractors, and 3,000 civilians are employed by the Fleet Readiness Center. The contract will run through Dec. 21, 2015. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, December 4, 2012


J ac k s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

8.0%

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 60000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0

1.2

50000.0

6.0%

660.0

1

55000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL December 2012 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.9 2.9 28.8 25.1

50.6 -6.2 27.3 23.3

53.5 5.7 27.8 25.7

56.0 4.7 28.7 27.3

57.8 3.2 29.6 28.2

60.5 4.6 31.0 29.5

64.1 5.9 32.6 31.4

67.9 5.9 34.5 33.4

71.8 5.8 36.2 35.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.7 1.5

49.5 -0.4

46.4 -6.2

48.1 3.7

49.2 2.3

50.0 1.5

51.7 3.4

53.9 4.4

56.2 4.2

58.4 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.1 38.0

40.7 37.4

37.9 34.7

39.6 35.7

41.1 36.2

42.0 36.3

43.5 37.1

45.4 38.2

47.3 39.2

49.2 40.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.3 3.0

44.8 1.1

45.1 0.6

46.3 2.6

47.2 2.0

48.5 2.9

49.8 2.5

51.1 2.8

52.6 2.9

54.1 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

633.9 1.5

621.7 -1.9

586.5 -5.7

582.9 -0.6

590.1 1.2

592.7 0.4

604.8 2.1

620.5 2.6

637.6 2.8

652.8 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

32.6 -2.2

31.9 -1.9

28.7 -10.1

26.9 -6.2

26.8 -0.5

26.5 -1.1

26.5 0.0

27.0 1.7

27.5 1.8

27.8 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

601.4 1.7

589.8 -1.9

557.7 -5.4

556.0 -0.3

563.3 1.3

566.2 0.5

578.3 2.2

593.6 2.6

610.1 2.8

625.0 2.4

49.2 -1.6

43.0 -12.6

32.8 -23.8

28.5 -13.0

26.6 -6.8

25.4 -4.5

26.5 4.3

29.3 10.5

33.3 13.9

36.6 9.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

139.2 1.7

136.4 -2.1

126.9 -7.0

124.3 -2.0

124.8 0.4

126.7 1.5

128.7 1.6

131.1 1.8

133.9 2.2

137.0 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.5 32.3

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.7 30.0

25.2 69.5 30.1

25.1 72.1 29.6

25.6 73.2 30.0

26.2 73.7 31.2

27.1 74.5 32.5

27.9 75.7 33.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -6.0

9.5 -0.7

9.6 0.8

9.7 1.0

9.9 2.2

10.1 2.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

60.2 0.5

59.8 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.9 0.3

57.9 3.6

58.4 0.9

59.9 2.5

61.3 2.4

61.6 0.5

61.7 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

94.4 -1.2

88.1 -6.6

83.2 -5.5

86.1 3.5

91.7 6.5

93.7 2.1

98.4 5.0

104.2 6.0

110.6 6.1

114.9 3.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

77.9 4.6

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.4

85.6 2.3

87.4 2.1

88.8 1.7

90.6 1.9

92.4 2.0

94.8 2.6

98.1 3.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

65.9 6.1

67.3 2.1

64.7 -3.9

64.4 -0.5

65.2 1.3

65.1 -0.3

66.3 2.0

67.1 1.1

67.2 0.2

67.3 0.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24.0 -9.7

23.8 -0.7

23.4 -2.0

22.8 -2.6

22.9 0.5

23.1 1.0

23.2 0.3

23.3 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.0 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18.0 2.8

17.3 -3.9

17.4 0.1

17.0 -1.8

16.6 -2.5

16.3 -1.9

16.1 -1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.2 3.7

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.2

59.0 0.3

59.3 0.5

58.4 -1.5

58.5 0.1

58.8 0.6

59.4 0.9

60.0 1.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1308.2 1.8

1324.0 1.2

1336.9 1.0

1349.4 0.9

1361.9 0.9

1375.4 1.0

1391.5 1.2

1411.2 1.4

1434.8 1.7

1460.8 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

677.0 4.1

688.1 1.6

680.0 -1.2

684.9 0.7

692.5 1.1

694.0 0.2

702.5 1.2

713.8 1.6

724.4 1.5

734.3 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

3.7

5.8

9.8

10.9

10.1

8.4

7.9

7.5

7.0

6.5

10456.4 7515.5 2941.0

7053.6 5171.9 1882.0

4942.4 3398.0 1544.0

3715.3 3563.4 152.0

3549.8 3174.9 375.0

7476.9 4742.8 2734.0

10213.2 5511.9 4701.0

10720.6 6813.3 3907.0

12909.7 8928.5 3981.0

14464.9 10022.5 4442.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

59.3 3.8 30.4 28.9

60.1 4.2 30.8 29.3

60.9 5 31.2 29.7

61.7 5.4 31.6 30.1

62.8 5.9 32 30.8

63.6 5.8 32.4 31.2

64.5 5.9 32.8 31.7

65.4 6.1 33.3 32.1

66.5 5.9 33.8 32.7

67.4 6 34.2 33.2

68.3 6 34.7 33.7

69.3 5.9 35.1 34.1

70.4 5.9 35.6 34.8

71.3 5.8 36 35.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 2.7

51.5 3.1

51.9 3.8

52.4 4.1

53.1 4.5

53.6 4.2

54.2 4.3

54.7 4.4

55.3 4.2

55.9 4.3

56.5 4.3

57 4.1

57.7 4.2

58.2 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42.8 36.7

43.3 37

43.7 37.3

44.1 37.5

44.7 37.9

45.1 38.1

45.6 38.3

46.1 38.6

46.6 38.8

47.1 39.1

47.5 39.3

48 39.5

48.5 39.7

48.9 39.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.3 2.4

49.6 2.2

49.9 2.6

50.2 2.8

50.6 2.7

51 2.7

51.3 2.8

51.7 2.9

52.1 2.9

52.4 2.9

52.8 2.8

53.1 2.8

53.5 2.8

53.9 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

599.1 1.1

602.7 2

606.8 2.5

610.8 2.6

614.4 2.6

618.2 2.6

622.4 2.6

627.1 2.7

631.3 2.7

635.5 2.8

639.7 2.8

643.9 2.7

647.6 2.6

651 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

26.3 -1.5

26.5 -0.6

26.6 1

26.6 1.3

26.8 1.6

26.9 1.6

27 1.6

27.2 2

27.3 2

27.4 1.9

27.5 1.8

27.6 1.7

27.7 1.5

27.8 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

572.8 1.3

576.2 2.2

580.2 2.5

584.2 2.7

587.7 2.6

591.3 2.6

595.3 2.6

599.9 2.7

604 2.8

608.1 2.8

612.2 2.8

616.3 2.7

619.9 2.6

623.2 2.5

25.9 -0.4

26.2 7.2

26.6 4.8

27.2 6

27.9 7.8

28.8 9.8

29.6 11.3

30.7 12.7

31.8 13.7

32.8 14.2

33.9 14.3

34.8 13.4

35.6 12.2

36.3 10.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.6 0.5

128.3 1.3

129.1 2.2

129.8 2.3

130.1 2

130.7 1.9

131.3 1.7

132.1 1.7

132.7 2

133.4 2.1

134.3 2.2

135.2 2.4

135.9 2.4

136.7 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.3 72.9 29.5

25.4 73 29.8

25.7 73.4 30.2

25.8 73.6 30.5

26 73.5 30.7

26.1 73.6 31

26.3 73.8 31.4

26.5 74 31.7

26.8 74 32.1

27 74.2 32.3

27.2 74.6 32.6

27.4 75 32.9

27.6 75.3 33.1

27.8 75.5 33.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 -1.3

9.6 1.5

9.6 1.5

9.6 1.6

9.6 1.4

9.6 0.3

9.7 0.7

9.8 1.8

9.8 2.3

9.9 2.5

9.9 2.2

10 2

10 2

10.1 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.4 2.7

59.7 2.4

60.1 2.4

60.5 2.6

60.9 2.6

61.3 2.7

61.5 2.4

61.6 1.8

61.7 1.2

61.6 0.6

61.6 0.2

61.6 -0.1

61.6 -0.1

61.6 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

96.2 4.1

97.6 3.9

99.1 5.7

100.5 6.3

101.7 5.7

103.2 5.7

105 6

107 6.4

108.6 6.8

110 6.6

111.3 5.9

112.4 5.1

113.4 4.4

114.3 4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

90.1 2.1

90.3 2.3

90.8 1.9

91.1 1.5

91.8 1.9

92.1 2.1

92.5 1.9

93.1 2.1

93.6 2

94.4 2.4

95.2 2.8

95.9 3

96.8 3.4

97.7 3.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

65.7 0

66.2 2.3

66.5 2.9

66.9 2.6

67.1 2.2

67.1 1.4

67 0.8

67.1 0.2

67.2 0.1

67.2 0.1

67.2 0.3

67.4 0.5

67.4 0.3

67.3 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 -0.6

22.8 0.6

22.9 0.8

23 1.2

23 1.1

23.1 1.2

23.1 1.1

23.1 0.7

23.2 0.5

23.2 0.4

23.2 0.2

23.2 0.3

23.3 0.4

23.3 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 -1.2

17.1 -1.3

17 -2.2

16.9 -2.5

16.8 -2.5

16.7 -2.6

16.6 -2.6

16.5 -2.5

16.4 -2.4

16.3 -2.1

16.3 -1.8

16.2 -1.5

16.2 -1.3

16.1 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.4 -0.1

58.5 0.2

58.5 0

58.6 0.3

58.7 0.5

58.8 0.6

58.9 0.6

59 0.7

59.1 0.7

59.3 0.9

59.5 1

59.6 1

59.7 1

59.9 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

54384

54670

55070

55565

55986

56501

57061

57682

58222

58781

59332

59847

60350

60840

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1384.9 1.1

1389.2 1.1

1393.7 1.2

1398.3 1.3

1403.2 1.3

1408.3 1.4

1413.7 1.4

1419.5 1.5

1425.4 1.6

1431.6 1.6

1437.9 1.7

1444.3 1.8

1450.9 1.8

1457.5 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

698.8 0.5

701.1 1.4

703.3 1.5

706.6 1.5

709.5 1.5

712.3 1.6

715.2 1.7

717.9 1.6

720.4 1.5

723.1 1.5

725.9 1.5

728.3 1.4

730.5 1.4

733 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.5

10314 5338 4976

10118 5333 4786

10148 5565 4583

10273 5813 4460

10239 6028 4211

10466 6562 3904

10822 7058 3764

11356 7606 3750

11966 8151 3816

12661 8749 3912

13291 9236 4055

13721 9579 4142

14091 9798 4293

14321 9932 4389

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and Legoland Florida. The Detroit Tigers also conduct spring training in Lakeland.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low-to-moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.3 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 30.8, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 43.6, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average 1.3 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 16, 883.02 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 270,500 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 9.1% not seasonally adjusted in April of 2012. This amounts to 24,616 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Employment growth is expected to be 2.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 8.4 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs.

• City of Lakeland – 2,600

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 9.2 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 5.1 percent a year, and the Education and Health Services sector averaging 2.1 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -1.8 percent.

• Watson Clinic – 1,600

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• Rooms To Go – 900

ButterKrust Bakery in Lakeland lays off workers

Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 11,063

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • GEICO – 2,005

• GC Services – 1,000

• Summit Consulting – 654

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• After a study of its operations, ButterKrust laid off 32 workers, cutting its workforce by 15%. • The bakery, which is owned by Thomasville, Georgia based Flower foods, has been affected by economic pressures, rising ingredient costs, and healthcare costs, according to Lakeland bakery president Doug Wimberly.

• Since being acquired in 2008, ButterKrust has reduced its workers from 368 to 175. The bakery’s primary brands include Nature’s Own, Country Hearth, and Sunbeam. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, October 12, 2012

44

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


La k e l a n d

Voters approve property tax exemption for new businesses coming to Polk

• With 54% of the vote, Polk residents will now allow County commissioners to grant property tax exemptions for new businesses.

• Existing businesses that decide to expand and create new, full-time jobs will also be eligible for the exemption, which can last up to 10 years. • The county narrowly rejected the measure in 2008 and 2010. Prior to the measure taking effect, the commissioners must hold a public hearing to consider an ordinance describing the qualifications for tax breaks.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 6, 2012

Ground-breaking for CSX Terminal on Thursday

Lakeland addresses foreclosure issues

• City commissioners voted 7-0 to create a foreclosure registry requiring lenders to pay a fee within 10 days of foreclosing on a property.

• Lenders will also be required to provide contact information for a property manager who will deal with homes that have become deteriorated. A lender who doesn’t clean up the property could be fined and a lien could be placed on the property. • Approximately 16% of the current 200 codeviolating properties in the city are foreclosures. This measure aims to make the banks more responsive. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, December 3, 2012

• A ceremonial ground-breaking is to be held on November 8 to celebrate the construction of the CSX Terminal. • Evansville Western Railway, a CSX affiliate, is building the rail terminal. They expect that the construction will create 200 jobs.

• The rail terminal will be an intermodal facility handling freight train traffic as it moves from Orlando-area rail lines to the line that runs through Polk County and downtown Lakeland. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 6, 2012

Plans OK’d for expansion of Oakbridge, a mixeduse development in South Lakeland

• The Central Florida Regional Planning Council approved the last section of the Oakbridge development plan: South Village. • South Village will include 400 new residencies, including 220 new single-family homes, and 500,000 square feet of retail space for a new mall. • The development has been in the works for decades, originally approved in 1987, but plans have changed eight times since then.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 16, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


La k e l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

17000.0

14000.0 13000.0 12000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0

46

2.5

15000.0

210.0

170.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL December 2012 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.4 4.0 8.1 11.3

18.3 -5.8 7.7 10.6

19.2 5.3 7.7 11.5

20.1 4.3 7.8 12.3

20.8 3.5 8.1 12.7

21.7 4.2 8.4 13.2

22.8 5.4 8.8 14.0

24.1 5.6 9.3 14.8

25.5 5.7 9.7 15.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 2.8

17.8 0.7

16.8 -5.8

17.3 3.3

17.6 1.8

17.9 1.7

18.5 3.1

19.2 3.8

20.0 3.9

20.7 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.8 30.2

32.6 29.9

30.5 28.0

31.9 28.7

32.9 28.9

33.7 29.1

34.7 29.7

36.2 30.4

37.7 31.2

39.3 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 2.0

37.8 1.3

38.0 0.6

38.9 2.3

39.8 2.3

40.9 2.9

41.9 2.4

43.0 2.6

44.2 2.7

45.4 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

215.7 0.0

212.3 -1.6

201.5 -5.1

196.8 -2.3

194.9 -1.0

195.8 0.4

199.5 1.9

203.4 2.0

208.5 2.5

213.6 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.1

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.2

14.1 -1.0

13.9 -1.6

13.9 0.6

14.2 1.6

14.4 1.9

14.7 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

198.5 0.4

196.0 -1.2

186.7 -4.8

182.6 -2.2

180.8 -1.0

181.9 0.6

185.5 2.0

189.3 2.0

194.1 2.5

198.9 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 -6.3

14.3 -11.9

12.1 -15.3

11.0 -8.8

10.5 -4.5

10.2 -2.5

10.6 3.1

11.6 9.9

13.2 13.5

14.6 10.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

49.4 0.1

48.2 -2.5

45.3 -5.9

44.9 -0.9

45.6 1.6

46.1 1.1

46.8 1.5

47.3 1.0

48.1 1.7

49.2 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.1 26.4 12.9

9.6 26.1 12.5

9.1 24.2 12.0

8.7 24.2 12.0

9.0 24.3 12.2

9.1 24.6 12.3

9.2 25.2 12.4

9.4 25.2 12.8

9.6 25.3 13.2

9.9 25.7 13.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7.0

1.7 -4.3

1.7 0.2

1.7 0.5

1.7 1.0

1.8 2.6

1.8 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 1.8

15.9 2.2

15.5 -2.6

15.3 -1.3

15.0 -1.8

14.3 -4.7

14.5 1.8

14.8 2.0

14.9 0.6

14.9 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 -2.8

29.7 -2.5

27.4 -7.6

25.7 -6.3

24.0 -6.5

24.4 1.5

25.6 5.0

26.8 4.8

28.5 6.3

29.8 4.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 5.1

29.4 4.0

29.0 -1.4

29.1 0.4

29.5 1.3

30.0 1.7

30.7 2.1

31.2 1.9

31.8 1.9

32.6 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 2.7

18.2 -0.4

17.4 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.6 4.9

18.7 6.2

19.2 2.7

19.2 0.1

19.1 -0.5

19.0 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.0 -5.3

8.6 -4.0

8.3 -4.0

8.0 -2.8

7.6 -5.2

7.6 0.0

7.6 0.2

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.0

7.7 0.1

1.4 1.2

1.4 0.0

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -25.7

1.1 -7.5

1.1 -2.0

1.0 -2.5

1.0 -1.9

1.0 -1.1

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

28.1 -1.2

27.8 -1.2

27.7 -0.1

27.8 0.3

28.0 0.6

28.3 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

586.5 2.8

595.0 1.4

599.3 0.7

604.1 0.8

610.3 1.0

616.4 1.0

623.3 1.1

631.2 1.3

639.7 1.4

649.3 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

269.0 3.0

273.5 1.7

272.6 -0.3

276.1 1.3

274.5 -0.6

274.8 0.1

282.9 3.0

290.0 2.5

296.1 2.1

300.6 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

6.7

11.1

12.2

11.6

9.8

8.9

8.7

8.4

7.8

4376.6 4029.0 348.0

3224.1 2363.9 860.0

1202.5 1189.5 13.0

1227.1 1169.0 58.0

1112.6 1059.9 53.0

1639.9 1532.4 107.0

2989.9 2547.3 443.0

4396.1 3739.7 656.0

5737.1 4895.3 842.0

6439.9 5395.1 1045.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.3 4.3 8.3 13

21.5 3.7 8.4 13.2

21.8 4.2 8.5 13.3

22 4.7 8.6 13.5

22.4 5.4 8.7 13.8

22.7 5.3 8.7 13.9

23 5.4 8.9 14.1

23.3 5.5 9 14.3

23.6 5.4 9.1 14.5

23.9 5.6 9.2 14.7

24.3 5.7 9.3 14.9

24.6 5.8 9.4 15.2

25 5.8 9.6 15.4

25.3 5.8 9.7 15.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 3.1

18.4 2.6

18.6 3.1

18.7 3.4

19 4

19.1 3.7

19.3 3.8

19.5 3.9

19.7 3.6

19.9 3.9

20.1 4

20.2 4.1

20.5 4.1

20.6 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.3 29.4

34.6 29.6

34.9 29.8

35.2 29.9

35.7 30.2

36 30.3

36.3 30.5

36.7 30.7

37.1 30.9

37.5 31.1

37.9 31.3

38.3 31.5

38.7 31.7

39.1 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.5 2.3

41.8 2.1

42 2.4

42.3 2.7

42.6 2.6

42.9 2.6

43.2 2.7

43.4 2.7

43.7 2.7

44 2.6

44.3 2.6

44.6 2.7

44.9 2.7

45.2 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

198 2.3

198.9 1.6

200 1.7

201 1.9

202 2

202.8 2

203.8 1.9

205.1 2.1

206.4 2.2

207.8 2.5

209.3 2.7

210.7 2.7

211.9 2.7

212.9 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 -0.1

13.9 0.4

14 1

14 1.2

14.1 1.6

14.1 1.4

14.2 1.6

14.3 2

14.3 1.9

14.4 2

14.5 1.9

14.5 1.9

14.6 1.6

14.6 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

184.1 2.5

185 1.7

186 1.8

187 2

187.9 2

188.7 2

189.7 2

190.9 2.1

192 2.2

193.4 2.5

194.8 2.7

196.1 2.8

197.3 2.7

198.3 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 0.5

10.5 2.5

10.6 4

10.8 5.3

11.1 7.2

11.4 9.2

11.8 10.8

12.2 12.3

12.6 13

13 13.6

13.4 14

13.8 13.4

14.1 12.4

14.4 11.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

46.5 2.7

46.7 1

46.9 1.2

47.1 1.3

47.2 1.3

47.2 1

47.3 0.8

47.5 0.8

47.7 1.1

47.9 1.5

48.2 1.9

48.5 2.2

48.8 2.4

49.1 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.2 25.1 12.3

9.2 25.1 12.4

9.3 25.2 12.5

9.3 25.2 12.6

9.3 25.2 12.7

9.4 25.1 12.7

9.4 25.1 12.8

9.4 25.2 12.9

9.5 25.2 13

9.6 25.2 13.1

9.7 25.3 13.2

9.7 25.5 13.4

9.8 25.6 13.4

9.9 25.6 13.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -0.6

1.7 0.6

1.7 0.9

1.7 1

1.7 1.3

1.7 0.2

1.7 0.7

1.7 1.8

1.7 2.4

1.8 2.8

1.8 2.7

1.8 2.7

1.8 2.6

1.8 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 2.1

14.5 1.1

14.6 1.9

14.7 2.1

14.7 2.1

14.8 2.3

14.9 2.1

14.9 1.5

14.9 0.9

14.9 0.6

14.9 0.4

14.9 0.4

14.9 0.5

14.9 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 5.4

25.5 4.6

25.8 4.8

26.1 5.3

26.3 4.5

26.6 4.5

27 4.9

27.4 5.2

27.8 5.9

28.3 6.4

28.8 6.5

29.1 6.3

29.4 5.6

29.6 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.5 3.1

30.6 1.7

30.7 2.1

30.8 1.7

31.1 1.9

31.1 1.8

31.3 1.7

31.4 2

31.6 1.6

31.7 1.9

31.9 2

32.1 1.9

32.3 2.2

32.5 2.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 4.3

19.2 3.6

19.2 1.5

19.3 1.4

19.3 1.2

19.3 0.3

19.2 -0.3

19.1 -0.8

19.2 -0.8

19.1 -0.6

19.1 -0.3

19.1 -0.2

19.1 -0.3

19.1 -0.4

7.6 0.2

7.6 -0.5

7.6 0.4

7.7 0.8

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.8

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.3

7.7 0.1

7.7 0

7.7 -0.2

7.7 -0.1

7.7 -0.1

7.7 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -1.6

1.1 -1.4

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -2.6

1.1 -2.5

1 -2.5

1 -2.5

1 -2.5

1 -2.3

1 -2

1 -1.7

1 -1.4

1 -1.2

1 -1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.7 -0.3

27.7 -0.2

27.7 -0.1

27.8 0.2

27.8 0.4

27.8 0.4

27.8 0.3

27.9 0.3

27.9 0.5

28 0.5

28 0.7

28.1 0.8

28.2 0.8

28.2 0.8

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

15923

15991

16087

16214

16332

16458

16602

16765

16913

17082

17252

17407

17551

17690

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

620.5 1

622.3 1.1

624.2 1.1

626 1.2

628.1 1.2

630.1 1.3

632.2 1.3

634.3 1.3

636.4 1.3

638.6 1.3

640.8 1.4

643.1 1.4

645.6 1.4

648 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

280.1 2.7

282 3.3

283.9 3.1

285.8 2.8

287.5 2.7

289.2 2.5

290.9 2.5

292.5 2.3

294 2.3

295.5 2.2

296.9 2.1

298.1 1.9

299.1 1.7

300.1 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

9

8.9

8.8

8.8

8.8

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.1

8

7.9

2410 2120 290

2776 2408 368

3174 2695 479

3599 2966 633

3881 3211 670

4271 3624 646

4524 3905 619

4909 4219 691

5245 4499 746

5623 4804 819

5940 5059 881

6141 5219 922

6301 5310 991

6378 5353 1025

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this Metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 5.2 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39.4, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.7 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 54.6, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.5 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 253,703.37 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 2,881,418 as of April 2012 for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 237,916 unemployed people for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.2 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 7.4 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 10.8 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 5.4 percent each year and Education and Health Services sector at 2.1 percent. The only sector expected to decline is Federal Government with an annual growth rate of -2.1 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Mako Surgical completes $43M stock offering

• Mako Surgical Corporation is a knee and hip replacement surgical robot manufacturer. The company is based in Davie. • The corporation raised $43 million from the stock offering, selling 3.5 million shares, at $13.15 per share. • Mako Surgical hopes to use the capital for commercialization infrastructure, selling, general and administrative activities, and research and development activities.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 20, 2012

Source: The Beacon Council

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Aventura charter school loses $156M defamation verdict • Katherine Murphy, the former principal of charter school Aventura City of Excellence, sued the school and the city manager for demeaning abuse after she was fired in 2006. • The jury awarded millions for distress, lost wages, damaged reputation, and damaged income potential.

• Katherine Murphy alleged abusive and foul language and falsely accused of stealing money to fund a trip to Switzerland. Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 5, 2012

Intercontinental Miami undergoes $30M upgrade • Intercontinental Miami has decided to invest $30 million for upgrades to the hotel in downtown Miami.

• The hotel will add fully renovated suites, a 19-story “digital canvas,” and a new Pan-Latin steakhouse. • Intercontinental Miami is hoping for the renovations to be completed by the end of the year.

• The hotel has been performing well the past few years, with a projected 2012 occupancy rate higher than its peak in 2007. Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 12, 2012

World Stem Cell Summit: West Palm Beach hosts scientists from as far away as Japan

• Bernard Siegel, a South Florida lawyer, was in charge of the World Stem Cell Summit in West Palm Beach in the beginning of December. • The summit was at the Palm Beach Convention Center. This is the first time the summit was held in Florida. • Scientists from various countries, including Japan, and from different Nobel Prize-winning institutes are meeting to discuss new cutting edge research.

Source: WPTV, Channel 5 News, December 3, 2012

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

I-595 going green with $10 million in landscaping • Interstate 595 is set to receive a landscaping makeover by the contractor that is rebuilding a 10-mile stretch of the east-west expressway.

• There will be 27 different types of trees and 10 different shrubs that are capable of living along the road that will help with traffic noise control, prevent erosion, and make the area more aesthetically pleasing.

• The new addition to the landscaping will cost the contractor approximately $10 million, and although the cost of maintaining the landscape is unknown, the contractor, I-595 Express, will be in charge of paying for the maintenance until 2044. Source: Sun-Sentinel, November 27, 2012


Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 280000.0

6.0%

220000.0

4.0%

200000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

180000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

2400.0 2350.0 2300.0 2250.0 2200.0 2150.0 2100.0

1.2

(Millions 2000 $)

240000.0

8.0%

2450.0

1

260000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Miami Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL December 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

238.3 4.1 114.3 124.0

242.9 2.0 113.0 129.9

222.8 -8.3 106.3 116.5

233.8 4.9 107.4 126.4

244.2 4.5 110.9 133.3

251.2 2.9 114.9 136.3

261.1 3.9 119.5 141.6

275.3 5.4 125.5 149.8

290.9 5.7 132.4 158.4

307.4 5.7 139.3 168.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

225.9 1.4

223.0 -1.3

204.4 -8.3

210.4 2.9

214.6 2.0

217.0 1.1

223.0 2.7

231.6 3.9

240.8 4.0

250.0 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.9 41.6

44.5 40.8

40.4 37.1

41.8 37.6

43.0 37.8

43.5 37.6

44.5 38.0

46.2 38.9

48.1 39.8

50.1 40.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.1 2.8

47.8 1.6

48.0 0.4

48.8 1.7

49.7 1.8

51.1 2.9

52.3 2.4

53.8 2.7

55.3 2.8

56.8 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2414.7 0.9

2350.8 -2.6

2202.5 -6.3

2185.2 -0.8

2218.9 1.5

2233.6 0.7

2268.3 1.6

2318.7 2.2

2380.7 2.7

2438.7 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

99.5 -2.0

93.4 -6.1

80.5 -13.8

76.0 -5.6

76.3 0.4

76.4 0.0

76.0 -0.5

77.0 1.3

78.0 1.3

78.7 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2315.2 1.1

2257.4 -2.5

2122.1 -6.0

2109.2 -0.6

2142.6 1.6

2157.2 0.7

2192.3 1.6

2241.7 2.3

2302.7 2.7

2360.0 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

161.2 -2.0

135.0 -16.2

102.6 -24.1

88.7 -13.5

83.8 -5.5

79.5 -5.2

82.5 3.8

92.2 11.9

106.9 15.9

119.3 11.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

549.6 1.1

540.6 -1.6

504.9 -6.6

504.2 -0.1

517.8 2.7

527.0 1.8

536.1 1.7

544.2 1.5

554.1 1.8

565.8 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

147.6 306.1 95.8

144.4 300.9 95.3

134.6 281.1 89.1

131.8 283.9 88.4

133.4 293.7 90.7

133.0 302.0 92.1

135.6 306.9 94.0

138.9 308.0 97.7

142.6 310.2 101.8

145.7 314.6 105.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3.0

43.7 0.2

43.1 -1.4

43.7 1.4

44.2 1.3

45.2 2.2

45.8 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

180.3 -1.2

169.7 -5.9

154.0 -9.2

151.1 -1.9

152.0 0.6

152.1 0.0

152.6 0.3

154.3 1.1

154.5 0.1

154.5 0.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

370.2 0.6

353.3 -4.6

325.5 -7.9

329.1 1.1

341.1 3.7

346.5 1.6

362.0 4.5

382.4 5.6

408.4 6.8

427.7 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

318.9 3.5

326.2 2.3

330.6 1.3

335.5 1.5

345.6 3.0

355.1 2.7

359.3 1.2

365.7 1.8

373.9 2.2

385.5 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

257.9 2.5

257.0 -0.4

247.5 -3.7

251.5 1.6

258.6 2.8

257.3 -0.5

262.1 1.9

264.5 0.9

264.6 0.1

264.1 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

100.8 1.5

100.9 0.1

93.4 -7.4

93.0 -0.5

93.3 0.4

94.1 0.8

94.3 0.2

94.8 0.6

94.9 0.0

95.1 0.2

34.0 -0.3

33.8 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -7.0

33.6 -1.5

32.8 -2.3

31.9 -2.7

31.2 -2.1

30.8 -1.2

291.2 1.4

291.2 0.0

284.5 -2.3

276.0 -3.0

272.5 -1.3

268.9 -1.3

267.0 -0.7

267.4 0.2

269.0 0.6

271.3 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5429.3 0.0

5462.0 0.6

5516.5 1.0

5594.0 1.4

5681.4 1.6

5772.5 1.6

5862.1 1.6

5953.0 1.6

6045.0 1.5

6135.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2877.0 4.7

2868.8 -0.3

2789.7 -2.8

2822.8 1.2

2875.6 1.9

2912.2 1.3

2943.1 1.1

2976.8 1.1

3011.0 1.1

3042.2 1.0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

3.9

6.0

10.3

11.2

10.5

8.7

8.1

7.7

7.1

6.6

14682.5 7635.1 7047.0

7439.0 3535.0 3904.0

3462.3 2215.1 1247.0

5064.5 3267.7 1797.0

7280.1 4124.1 3156.0

11987.3 5804.1 6183.0

17738.7 9014.6 8724.0

26175.5 13549.9 12626.0

34817.4 19177.9 15639.0

40328.1 22477.1 17851.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

256.3 3.1 117.4 138.9

259.6 3.4 118.7 140.9

262.6 4.3 120.2 142.5

265.7 4.8 121.6 144.1

270 5.4 123.1 147

273.3 5.3 124.6 148.7

277 5.5 126.2 150.8

280.8 5.7 128 152.8

285 5.6 129.8 155.3

288.9 5.7 131.5 157.3

292.8 5.7 133.3 159.5

296.7 5.7 135.1 161.6

301.4 5.7 136.9 164.6

305.3 5.7 138.5 166.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

219.8 2

222.2 2.3

223.9 3.2

225.8 3.5

228.5 4

230.4 3.7

232.6 3.9

234.9 4

237.3 3.8

239.7 4

242.1 4.1

244.2 4

247 4.1

249 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

44 37.7

44.4 38

44.7 38.1

45.1 38.3

45.6 38.6

46 38.8

46.4 39

46.9 39.2

47.4 39.5

47.9 39.7

48.4 40

48.8 40.2

49.4 40.5

49.9 40.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.8 2.3

52.2 2.1

52.5 2.5

52.8 2.7

53.2 2.7

53.6 2.7

54 2.8

54.3 2.8

54.7 2.9

55.1 2.8

55.5 2.8

55.9 2.8

56.3 2.8

56.6 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2250.5 0.7

2261.4 1.4

2274.5 2.1

2286.9 2.1

2298.1 2.1

2310.4 2.2

2324.7 2.2

2341.5 2.4

2356.9 2.6

2372.5 2.7

2388.6 2.7

2404.8 2.7

2418.8 2.6

2432 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

75.6 -2.2

75.9 -1.2

76.2 0.7

76.3 0.9

76.6 1.3

76.8 1.2

77.1 1.2

77.4 1.5

77.7 1.5

77.9 1.4

78.1 1.3

78.3 1.2

78.5 1

78.7 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2174.9 0.8

2185.5 1.4

2198.3 2.1

2210.6 2.2

2221.5 2.1

2233.5 2.2

2247.6 2.2

2264.1 2.4

2279.2 2.6

2294.5 2.7

2310.5 2.8

2326.4 2.8

2340.3 2.7

2353.3 2.6

80.3 -1.3

81.5 3.3

83 6

85.1 7.2

87.6 9

90.5 11.1

93.6 12.8

97.3 14.3

101.2 15.5

105.1 16.1

108.9 16.3

112.4 15.5

115.5 14.2

118.2 12.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

532.4 1.3

534.5 1.7

537.6 2

540 1.9

541.1 1.6

542.9 1.6

545 1.4

547.7 1.4

549.7 1.6

552.1 1.7

555.4 1.9

559.1 2.1

561.8 2.2

564.4 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

134.4 305.8 92.4

135 306.3 93.5

136.1 307.3 94.5

136.9 308.1 95.4

137.6 307.6 96.3

138.3 307.7 97.3

139.3 308.1 98.2

140.4 308.7 99.2

141.4 308.6 100.3

142.2 309.3 101.3

143 310.6 102.3

143.9 312.2 103.3

144.6 313.2 104.2

145.3 314.1 105.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

43.1 -0.6

43.8 2

44 2.1

43.8 2

43.9 1.7

44 0.5

44.3 0.9

44.7 2

44.9 2.4

45.1 2.5

45.3 2

45.4 1.7

45.7 1.6

45.8 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

152.2 0

152.2 -0.4

152.7 0.7

153.3 0.9

153.8 1.1

154.3 1.4

154.6 1.2

154.7 0.9

154.6 0.6

154.5 0.1

154.4 -0.1

154.3 -0.2

154.4 -0.2

154.3 -0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

354.8 3

359.5 4.1

364.4 5

369.2 5.6

372.8 5.1

378.2 5.2

385.4 5.8

393.1 6.5

399.7 7.2

405.7 7.3

411.5 6.8

416.8 6

421.1 5.4

425.4 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

357.8 0.9

358.3 1

360 1.6

361.3 1.3

363.5 1.6

364.8 1.8

366.1 1.7

368.2 1.9

369.9 1.8

372.6 2.1

375.1 2.5

377.8 2.6

380.8 3

384.2 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

259.8 0.6

261.6 1.8

262.9 2.8

264.1 2.3

264.8 1.9

264.7 1.2

264.3 0.5

264.2 0

264.6 -0.1

264.5 -0.1

264.5 0.1

264.9 0.3

264.8 0

264.1 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

94.2 -0.4

94.2 0.5

94.3 0.2

94.5 0.6

94.7 0.5

94.8 0.7

95 0.7

94.9 0.4

94.9 0.2

94.9 0.1

94.9 -0.1

94.9 0

95 0.1

95 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.1 -2.1

32.9 -2.2

32.7 -2.3

32.4 -2.7

32.2 -2.7

32 -2.7

31.8 -2.7

31.6 -2.6

31.4 -2.5

31.3 -2.2

31.2 -2

31.1 -1.7

31 -1.4

30.9 -1.3

267.1 -1.2

267 -1

266.9 -0.5

266.9 -0.2

267.1 0

267.3 0.1

267.4 0.2

267.8 0.3

268.2 0.4

268.8 0.6

269.3 0.7

269.8 0.7

270.3 0.8

270.9 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

238249 239404 241060 243055 244807 247009 249468 252222 254634 257141 259613 261957 264222 266384

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5828.8 1.6

5851 1.6

5873.2 1.5

5895.4 1.5

5917.9 1.5

5941.1 1.5

5964.8 1.6

5988.1 1.6

6011.2 1.6

6033.7 1.6

6056.2 1.5

6078.8 1.5

6101.4 1.5

6123.8 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2930.5 0.8

2939.1 0.8

2947.2 1.5

2955.8 1.2

2964.3 1.2

2972.5 1.1

2981.3 1.2

2989.2 1.1

2998 1.1

3007.4 1.2

3015.1 1.1

3023.4 1.1

3030.7 1.1

3038.2 1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.2

8.2

8

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.1

7

6.9

6.8

6.7

15218 7799 7418

16651 8472 8180

18457 9415 9042

20629 10372 10257

22588 11279 11309

24889 12807 12082

27335 14284 13050

29890 15830 14060

32068 17201 14866

33983 18638 15345

35889 19936 15953

37330 20936 16394

38680 21614 17066

39729 22154 17575

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”. It is the largest county in Florida, geographically.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 6.6 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 56.7, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of 51.9. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 2.4 percent, the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13,825.59 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 151,357 in April 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau). • An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,255 unemployed people (U.S. Census Bureau). Top Area Employers: • Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,100 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,100

Employment growth is expected to average 3.1 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 8.0 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 8.4 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 5.7 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline this quarter at -1.5 percent.

• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056 • Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800 • Marriott – 700 • Naples Grande Beach Resort – 760 • Downing Frye Realty – 550 • Golf Bay Group Co. – 500 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s It’s Your Business: Lee County reports $26.5M in tourist tax collections

• Lee County Visitor & Convention Bureau reported a second consecutive year of recordbreaking tax collections, ending with $26.5 million in tourist taxes on paid accommodations for fiscal 2011-12. • This represents a 9.2% increase over last year’s record breaking $24.2 million in collections and a 21.2% rise from fiscal year 2008-09 collections of $21.8 million.

• The tourism industry’s annual economic impact is $2.7 billion and helps to employ more than 52,000 workers, which equates to one of every five jobs in Lee County. Source: Naples News, November 28, 2012

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

Rental car companies shift to overdrive as tourist season nears

• Southwest Florida rental car businesses will soon start gearing up for the start of the season by bringing in thousands of additional vehicles. • Enterprise Holdings, which operates the Alamo Rent A Car, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, and National Car Rental brands will more than double the size of their fleet in Southwest Florida to prepare for the tourist season. • Low demand during winter in other regions allows companies to shift their fleets in preparation for the season as people gear up to go on holiday.

Source: Naples News, November 7, 2012

Rise in tourists brings 900 more jobs to Collier compared to a year ago

• In October, 900 more people were working directly in leisure and hospitality in Collier County than a year ago. This is part of increases in the tourism industry in general. • October also held an increase in tourists from the Midwest and Europe, despite the rising value of the dollar. Although the Canadian market is small, there were also increasing numbers of tourists in this segment.

• From January to October Collier has seen more than 1.3 million visitors, which is up 5 % from the same months last year. Source: Naples News, November 28, 2012

• In this holiday season, the average shopper will spend about $750 on gifts, decorations, and other purchases, according to forecasts by the National Retail Foundation. However, the NRF does not track money spent at small businesses. Within Collier County, 95% of retailers are one-shop businesses and more than 98% have less than 100 workers. Source: Naples News, November 26, 2012

Thousands stop by to shop at new Publix in Naples Plaza • Thousands of shoppers visited Publix for its grand reopening in the Naples plaza. The new store is a prototype that features natural and organic products, soup and salad bars, a cheese shop, and a Pacific wok. • Publix is rolling out the new prototype in five states and this is the first prototype to open in Southwest Florida.

• At the opening about 30 people, including members of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers, picketed for Publix to join the Fair Food Program, a partnership among workers, Florida tomato growers, and retail food giants aimed at ending decades of farm labor abuse in the state. Publix spokesperson stated they are more than willing to work with the coalition, but demands are complicated by the fact that the farmworkers do not work directly for Publix. Source: Naples News, December 6, 2012

Local shops report little bump from Small Business Saturday promotion

• Back in 2010, American Express started Small Business Saturday to promote small businesses, but it remains a middle sibling between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. • Some communities in the US push for patronage on that day, but no association in Collier County heavily promoted the event. Shops that did participate largely did so through self-promotion, announcing discounts in ads, or on social networking websites.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 11000.0 10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

120.0 110.0 100.0

56

1.4

13000.0

130.0

90.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

9000.0

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

1

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL December 2012 2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.9 4.3 6.1 13.8

21.0 5.5 5.6 15.4

17.7 -15.7 5.1 12.7

18.8 5.8 5.2 13.6

19.8 5.3 5.4 14.4

20.6 4.2 5.6 14.9

21.6 5.2 5.9 15.7

23.1 6.9 6.3 16.8

24.8 7.0 6.7 18.1

26.6 7.4 7.2 19.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 1.5

19.3 2.2

16.3 -15.8

16.9 3.8

17.4 2.8

17.8 2.4

18.5 4.0

19.5 5.3

20.5 5.3

21.6 5.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

63.4 60.1

66.4 61.0

55.6 51.0

58.0 52.2

60.1 52.8

61.6 53.2

63.6 54.3

66.6 56.1

69.5 57.5

72.4 58.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.8 4.1

45.9 -1.9

45.4 -1.0

46.3 1.9

46.9 1.2

48.2 3.0

49.5 2.7

51.1 3.0

52.6 3.1

54.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

129.7 -2.3

121.1 -6.6

110.7 -8.7

110.6 -0.1

113.7 2.8

116.3 2.2

119.1 2.4

122.7 3.0

127.0 3.5

131.3 3.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 -1.3

3.0 -9.7

2.6 -11.4

2.4 -6.7

2.4 -0.8

2.5 2.7

2.5 0.7

2.6 2.1

2.6 2.2

2.7 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

126.4 -2.3

118.2 -6.5

108.0 -8.6

108.1 0.1

111.3 2.9

113.8 2.2

116.6 2.5

120.1 3.0

124.3 3.5

128.7 3.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -28.0

9.1 -12.9

8.7 -4.0

8.5 -2.3

8.5 0.0

9.2 8.6

10.5 13.6

11.7 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 -1.2

23.0 -4.9

21.2 -7.9

21.4 1.1

22.4 4.8

23.1 2.9

23.8 2.9

24.2 2.0

24.9 2.7

25.7 3.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.6

3.1 16.7 1.5

3.1 16.8 1.5

3.2 17.7 1.5

3.3 18.3 1.5

3.4 18.9 1.5

3.5 19.2 1.6

3.6 19.6 1.7

3.8 20.2 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -4.9

1.8 -0.9

1.6 -9.0

1.5 -4.1

1.5 -3.3

1.5 -0.2

1.5 0.9

1.5 1.8

1.6 3.5

1.6 3.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -10.0

6.5 -1.0

6.5 -0.5

6.6 2.1

6.8 2.8

7.0 3.5

7.1 1.5

7.2 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 -7.6

12.0 -4.5

11.5 -4.4

12.1 5.4

12.9 6.4

13.4 4.3

14.1 5.1

14.9 5.9

16.0 6.8

16.8 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.5

17.1 2.9

17.9 4.5

18.3 2.3

18.8 3.0

19.4 3.1

20.0 3.1

20.7 3.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 4.9

22.9 -2.0

20.9 -8.3

21.3 1.7

22.7 6.4

23.9 5.4

24.4 2.2

24.7 1.3

24.9 0.8

25.1 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.0 3.2

6.0 0.5

5.7 -5.4

5.7 0.0

5.5 -2.6

5.5 -0.6

5.7 3.2

5.8 2.3

5.9 1.7

6.0 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.0

0.7 -3.6

0.7 1.0

0.8 14.7

0.7 -10.7

0.6 -11.2

0.6 -4.4

0.6 -1.2

0.6 -0.6

0.6 0.1

13.3 4.6

13.3 -0.3

12.9 -3.0

12.7 -1.6

12.5 -1.0

12.4 -1.3

12.4 0.3

12.6 1.7

12.9 2.0

13.2 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

314.7 0.7

316.8 0.7

319.1 0.7

323.4 1.3

328.8 1.7

334.2 1.7

340.2 1.8

347.2 2.1

356.3 2.6

367.2 3.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

152.4 1.2

148.4 -2.7

143.1 -3.6

144.5 1.0

148.3 2.6

151.4 2.0

157.4 4.0

163.9 4.1

170.0 3.7

175.2 3.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

6.9

10.9

11.6

10.3

8.5

8.1

8.3

8.1

7.6

1985.4 1165.6 820.0

966.4 669.0 297.0

832.9 633.3 200.0

1205.1 804.2 401.0

1208.6 922.8 286.0

1734.5 1409.4 325.0

2951.0 1870.6 1080.0

3976.1 2165.9 1810.0

5172.4 2881.3 2291.0

5812.3 3235.9 2576.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.1 4.5 5.8 15.3

21.5 4.7 5.9 15.6

21.8 5.5 6 15.8

22.2 6 6.1 16.1

22.6 7 6.2 16.5

23 6.8 6.2 16.7

23.3 6.9 6.3 17

23.7 6.9 6.4 17.2

24.1 6.6 6.5 17.6

24.5 7 6.7 17.9

25 7.1 6.8 18.2

25.4 7.3 6.9 18.5

25.9 7.3 7 18.9

26.4 7.4 7.1 19.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 3.4

18.4 3.5

18.6 4.3

18.8 4.7

19.2 5.6

19.3 5.2

19.6 5.2

19.8 5.2

20.1 4.9

20.4 5.3

20.6 5.5

20.9 5.6

21.2 5.6

21.5 5.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

62.6 53.7

63.3 54.2

64 54.6

64.7 55

65.7 55.6

66.3 55.9

67 56.2

67.6 56.5

68.4 57

69.2 57.4

69.8 57.7

70.5 58

71.3 58.5

72.1 58.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49 2.5

49.4 2.4

49.7 2.8

50.1 3.1

50.5 3

50.9 3

51.3 3.1

51.6 3.1

52 3.1

52.4 3

52.8 3

53.2 3.1

53.6 3.1

54 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

117.7 1.3

118.6 2.4

119.6 3

120.5 3.1

121.4 3.2

122.2 3

123.1 2.9

124.1 3

125.1 3.1

126.3 3.4

127.6 3.7

128.8 3.8

129.8 3.7

130.8 3.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -0.8

2.5 0.4

2.5 1.4

2.5 1.7

2.5 2.2

2.6 2

2.6 2

2.6 2.4

2.6 2.2

2.6 2.2

2.6 2.1

2.6 2

2.6 1.6

2.7 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

115.2 1.3

116.1 2.4

117 3

118 3.1

118.9 3.2

119.6 3

120.5 3

121.5 3

122.5 3.1

123.7 3.4

125 3.7

126.1 3.8

127.1 3.8

128.1 3.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -4.3

8.4 -1.5

8.5 2.5

8.7 3.8

8.9 5.7

9.1 7.9

9.3 9.7

9.6 11.2

9.9 12.2

10.3 13.4

10.7 14.4

11 14.5

11.3 13.7

11.6 12.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 3.1

23.7 3.5

23.8 2.7

24 2.5

24.1 2.3

24.2 2.1

24.3 1.8

24.4 1.8

24.6 2.1

24.7 2.5

25 2.9

25.2 3.3

25.4 3.5

25.6 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 18.7 1.5

3.3 18.8 1.5

3.4 18.9 1.6

3.4 19.1 1.6

3.4 19.1 1.6

3.4 19.1 1.6

3.5 19.2 1.6

3.5 19.3 1.6

3.5 19.4 1.6

3.6 19.5 1.7

3.6 19.7 1.7

3.7 19.9 1.7

3.7 20 1.7

3.7 20.2 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 -1.2

1.5 1.1

1.5 1.7

1.5 1.8

1.5 2.1

1.5 1

1.5 1.5

1.6 2.7

1.6 3.2

1.6 3.7

1.6 3.6

1.6 3.7

1.6 3.7

1.6 3.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 1.1

6.8 2.9

6.8 3.4

6.9 3.6

7 3.6

7 3.8

7.1 3.6

7.1 2.9

7.1 2.1

7.1 1.5

7.2 1.2

7.2 1.1

7.2 1.2

7.2 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.8 2.7

14 4.4

14.2 6.4

14.5 6.9

14.6 6.2

14.8 5.8

15.1 5.8

15.3 5.8

15.5 6.3

15.8 6.9

16.1 7

16.3 6.9

16.5 6.2

16.7 5.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 2.6

18.7 3.4

18.9 3.2

19 2.8

19.2 3.2

19.3 3.1

19.5 3

19.6 3.2

19.7 2.9

19.9 3.1

20.1 3.3

20.2 3.2

20.4 3.4

20.6 3.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 1.3

24.4 2

24.5 3

24.6 2.6

24.7 2.4

24.7 1.5

24.7 0.9

24.7 0.4

24.8 0.4

24.9 0.6

25 0.9

25 1.1

25.1 0.9

25.1 0.7

5.6 3.7

5.6 4.5

5.7 2.1

5.7 2.5

5.7 2.4

5.8 2.5

5.8 2.4

5.8 2

5.8 1.8

5.9 1.7

5.9 1.5

5.9 1.6

5.9 1.6

6 1.8

0.6 -14.4

0.6 0.9

0.6 -1

0.6 -1.4

0.6 -1.3

0.6 -1.2

0.6 -1.2

0.6 -1.2

0.6 -1.1

0.6 -0.8

0.6 -0.5

0.6 -0.2

0.6 0

0.6 0.1

12.3 -0.9

12.4 -0.2

12.4 1.1

12.5 1.5

12.5 1.7

12.6 1.8

12.6 1.6

12.7 1.7

12.8 1.9

12.8 2

12.9 2.1

13 2.2

13.1 2.2

13.1 2.2

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12841

12921

13023

13149

13266

13394

13539

13700

13848

14020

14194

14355

14502

14651

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

337.8 1.7

339.4 1.8

340.9 1.8

342.5 1.8

344.3 1.9

346.2 2

348.1 2.1

350.4 2.3

352.5 2.4

354.9 2.5

357.6 2.7

360.3 2.8

363 3

365.8 3.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

154.9 2.8

156.6 4

158.2 4.6

159.9 4.4

161.5 4.3

163.1 4.1

164.7 4.1

166.2 3.9

167.8 3.9

169.3 3.8

170.8 3.7

172.1 3.5

173.3 3.3

174.6 3.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

8.1

8.1

8.1

8.1

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.1

8

7.9

7.8

7.7

2589 1765 824

2821 1825 996

3080 1921 1159

3313 1972 1341

3534 1968 1566

3778 2036 1743

4106 2231 1875

4486 2429 2057

4811 2622 2189

5072 2824 2248

5323 2989 2334

5484 3091 2392

5631 3157 2474

5738 3201 2536

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.2 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at 31.2. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at 40.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, the third highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.9 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,992.16 (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 131,340 in December of 2006 (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).

• An unemployment rate of 9.7% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 118,600 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,725 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.9 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. However, unemployment rate is estimated to be 9.4 percent, the highest of the researched areas.

The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 10.5 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service and Education and Health Service sectors with 6.5 percent and 3.3 percent annual growth rate, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience negative growth, with an average annual rate of -1.0 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Dunnellon luncheon/fashion show raises $6,000 for Michelle-O-Gram • The Dunnellon-based Michelle-O-Gram program was formed in memory of Michelle Blauser-Standridge, who died at the age of 33 after a three-year battle with breast cancer.

• Alma Tankersley, a sales representative for Longaberger Baskets, started the luncheon in 2006 as a fundraiser for the American Cancer Society.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


Oca l a

• Typically, more than 100 women attend the event, which offers lunch, a fashion show, and silent and live auctions. One year, 150 people showed up. But on Oct. 6, about 90 people attended the luncheon to enjoy the festivities and support the nonprofit, which helps local women afford mammograms. Source: Ocala.com, November 4, 2012

Munroe tax opposed by almost 58 percent of voters • Marion County voters soundly rejected a hospital tax referendum that would have generated $65 million for Munroe Regional Medical Center.

• The proposal called for a one-mill property tax to support a bond issue. Almost 58 percent of the votes cast were against the tax. • Now that the tax is defeated, Marion County Hospital District trustees are expected to continue discussions with two private health care companies that want to lease the 421-bed facility.

• Duke LifePoint Healthcare, a joint venture of Duke University Health System and LifePoint Hospitals, is offering $375 million for a 40year lease. A Health Management Associates/ Shands HealthCare partnership is offering between $440.2 million and $500.2 million. Source: Ocala.com, November 6, 2012

CF, Workforce partner on jobs

• The Patriot Job Connection is a joint partnership between the College of Central Florida and Workforce Connection to help local college and vocational students find local jobs. • The Patriot Job Connection has been successful in linking students at the College of Central Florida to part-time and full-time positions. • Students also have access to on-campus job fairs, employer recruiting activities, successful interview instruction, and one-on-one consultation with job placement specialists.

• Since June 1, 530 students have been served through the partnership. Source: Ocala.com, November 2, 2012

Cornerstone School looking to build $1.5M project

• Officials with The Cornerstone School hope to break ground next summer on a new middle school building—a state-of-the-art facility geared toward technology and its robotics program. • Ingrid Wasserfall, head of The Cornerstone School, said community fundraising will begin in January for the $1.5 million project: $800,000 for the 6,500-square-foot building and $700,000 for technology and playground renovations.

• The Cornerstone School raises money for its operations every year via the popular Chili Cook-Off, which was held last weekend at the livestock pavilion. Source: Ocala.com, November 5, 2012

ORMC’s Level II trauma center treats first patients

• Ocala Regional Medical Center’s new trauma unit to help patients needing advanced specialized care is online months before its scheduled completion date and treated its first patient within hours of opening.

• The Level II trauma center, built at a cost of $6 million, will provide the kind of advanced medical care beyond what traditional emergency rooms can offer seriously injured patients. Dr. Darwin Noel Ang is the medical director. • The trauma center will serve Marion, Hernando and Citrus counties at Ocala Regional’s facility at 1431 SW First Ave. and is the only center of its kind in the tri-county area. The center is located at the hospital’s emergency department and includes its own operating room, X-ray machines, intensive care units and support equipment and supplies. Source: Ocala.com, December 10, 2012

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

7500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7000.0

6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

1

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

0.8

6500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Ocala Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL December 2012 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4

10.5 3.6 3.7 6.8

9.9 -5.6 3.4 6.5

10.4 4.7 3.3 7.1

10.9 4.5 3.4 7.5

11.3 3.9 3.5 7.8

11.9 5.1 3.7 8.2

12.6 6.3 3.9 8.7

13.4 6.5 4.1 9.3

14.3 6.8 4.4 9.9

9.6 2.8

9.7 0.3

9.1 -5.6

9.4 2.8

9.5 2.0

9.7 2.1

10.1 3.9

10.6 4.7

11.1 4.8

11.7 5.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.2 29.5

31.9 29.3

30.0 27.5

31.4 28.2

32.7 28.7

33.7 29.1

35.1 30.0

36.7 30.9

38.2 31.6

39.8 32.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.9 1.2

35.9 2.8

36.0 0.4

36.3 0.8

36.9 1.5

38.0 3.0

39.0 2.6

40.1 3.0

41.3 3.0

42.6 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

106.8 0.5

102.0 -4.5

93.1 -8.7

90.9 -2.4

90.7 -0.3

91.5 1.0

94.2 2.9

96.6 2.6

99.6 3.1

102.8 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -3.1

8.3 -13.8

6.7 -19.4

6.4 -3.7

6.5 1.2

6.6 2.5

6.7 0.1

6.8 1.5

6.8 1.5

6.9 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

97.2 0.9

93.7 -3.6

86.5 -7.8

84.5 -2.3

84.2 -0.4

84.9 0.9

87.6 3.1

89.9 2.7

92.8 3.2

95.8 3.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 -7.6

9.7 -16.9

7.3 -24.4

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.4 -4.8

5.6 4.0

6.3 11.3

7.2 14.9

8.0 11.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 1.7

22.7 -4.4

20.5 -9.8

20.1 -1.9

20.4 1.4

20.4 -0.1

21.0 2.9

21.3 1.4

21.7 2.1

22.3 2.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.8 2.9

3.5 14.5 2.5

3.4 14.4 2.4

3.3 14.5 2.5

3.2 14.5 2.7

3.2 15.0 2.7

3.2 15.2 2.8

3.3 15.5 2.9

3.4 15.9 3.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 -7.2

1.9 -2.9

1.7 -12.0

1.5 -9.4

1.6 3.9

1.6 2.0

1.6 0.7

1.6 1.2

1.7 2.8

1.7 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.0 3.6

5.9 -0.5

5.1 -13.4

4.2 -19.1

4.2 1.3

4.2 0.7

4.4 3.5

4.5 2.9

4.6 1.0

4.6 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 -8.3

8.2 -4.5

7.7 -5.1

7.4 -4.7

7.3 -0.4

7.5 2.1

8.0 6.3

8.5 6.1

9.1 7.7

9.6 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 4.7

13.5 1.6

12.9 -4.4

13.4 4.2

13.8 2.4

14.2 3.6

14.8 4.1

15.2 2.8

15.7 2.8

16.2 3.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 9.4

10.4 -1.9

10.0 -3.9

10.1 0.9

10.3 2.2

10.6 3.3

11.1 4.1

11.2 1.1

11.3 0.6

11.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.5

3.6 -7.7

3.7 1.6

3.7 -0.4

3.8 2.5

3.9 3.0

3.9 1.7

4.0 1.2

4.0 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.0

0.7 2.4

0.7 1.0

0.9 27.5

0.7 -24.2

0.7 -0.1

0.7 -0.8

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.1

0.7 -0.3

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.2

16.9 0.3

16.9 0.3

16.5 -2.2

16.4 -0.7

16.5 0.7

16.7 1.1

17.0 1.5

17.2 1.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

325.9 2.7

329.9 1.2

330.9 0.3

331.5 0.2

332.7 0.4

334.4 0.5

337.8 1.0

343.3 1.6

351.3 2.3

360.1 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.7 3.8

138.3 0.5

135.0 -2.4

134.2 -0.6

134.0 -0.1

133.5 -0.4

136.6 2.3

139.7 2.2

142.7 2.2

145.4 1.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

4.4

7.8

12.5

13.4

12.3

10.2

9.6

9.7

9.5

8.9

3164.9 2820.1 345.0

1211.2 1189.4 22.0

408.0 390.7 17.0

494.5 492.2 2.0

359.3 356.2 3.0

456.9 454.2 3.0

1308.3 1250.4 58.0

2674.0 2499.6 174.0

3617.6 3396.1 221.0

4006.5 3772.3 234.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.6 4.9 3.6 8

11.8 4.9 3.7 8.1

11.9 5 3.7 8.2

12.1 5.5 3.8 8.3

12.3 6.3 3.8 8.5

12.5 6.2 3.9 8.6

12.7 6.2 3.9 8.7

12.9 6.4 4 8.9

13.1 6.2 4 9

13.3 6.5 4.1 9.2

13.5 6.6 4.2 9.3

13.7 6.8 4.2 9.5

14 6.8 4.3 9.7

14.2 6.8 4.4 9.8

10 3.7

10.1 3.7

10.2 3.8

10.3 4.1

10.4 4.9

10.5 4.5

10.6 4.6

10.8 4.7

10.9 4.4

11 4.8

11.2 5

11.3 5

11.5 5.1

11.6 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.5 29.6

34.9 29.9

35.3 30.1

35.6 30.3

36.2 30.6

36.5 30.8

36.8 30.9

37.2 31.1

37.6 31.3

38 31.5

38.4 31.7

38.8 31.9

39.2 32.1

39.6 32.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.6 2.5

38.8 2.4

39.1 2.7

39.4 3

39.7 2.9

40 2.9

40.3 3

40.6 3.1

40.9 3

41.2 3

41.5 3

41.8 3

42.1 3.1

42.4 3.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

93.3 3.1

93.9 3.7

94.5 2.4

95.1 2.5

95.7 2.6

96.3 2.6

96.9 2.5

97.7 2.7

98.4 2.8

99.2 3

100.1 3.3

100.9 3.3

101.7 3.3

102.4 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -1.2

6.6 -0.2

6.7 0.8

6.7 1.1

6.7 1.5

6.7 1.3

6.8 1.3

6.8 1.7

6.8 1.4

6.8 1.5

6.9 1.5

6.9 1.4

6.9 1.2

6.9 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

86.7 3.5

87.2 4

87.9 2.5

88.5 2.6

89 2.7

89.6 2.6

90.1 2.6

90.9 2.7

91.6 2.9

92.4 3.1

93.2 3.4

94 3.5

94.8 3.5

95.5 3.3

5.5 0.1

5.6 3.7

5.7 5.4

5.8 6.7

6 8.6

6.1 10.6

6.3 12.2

6.6 13.8

6.8 14.5

7.1 15

7.3 15.4

7.6 14.7

7.8 13.6

7.9 12.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 3.5

20.9 4.4

21 2

21.1 1.9

21.2 1.7

21.2 1.4

21.3 1.2

21.4 1.2

21.5 1.4

21.6 1.9

21.8 2.3

21.9 2.7

22.1 3

22.2 3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 14.9 2.7

3.2 15 2.7

3.2 15.1 2.8

3.2 15.2 2.8

3.2 15.2 2.8

3.2 15.2 2.8

3.2 15.2 2.8

3.3 15.3 2.9

3.3 15.3 2.9

3.3 15.4 2.9

3.3 15.5 2.9

3.4 15.6 3

3.4 15.7 3

3.4 15.8 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -0.3

1.6 0.8

1.6 1.1

1.6 1.2

1.6 1.5

1.6 0.4

1.6 0.9

1.7 2

1.7 2.5

1.7 3

1.7 2.9

1.7 2.9

1.7 2.9

1.7 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 3.2

4.4 4.9

4.4 2.8

4.4 3

4.5 3

4.5 3.2

4.5 3

4.5 2.3

4.5 1.6

4.6 1

4.6 0.7

4.6 0.6

4.6 0.8

4.6 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 6.6

7.9 6.2

8 6

8.2 6.5

8.2 5.9

8.4 5.7

8.5 6.1

8.7 6.5

8.8 7.3

9 7.8

9.2 7.9

9.4 7.7

9.5 7.1

9.6 6.1

14.7 5.2

14.8 5.7

14.9 3

15 2.5

15.1 2.9

15.2 2.8

15.3 2.7

15.4 2.9

15.5 2.6

15.6 2.9

15.7 3

15.9 2.9

16 3.2

16.1 3.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

11 5.8

11 5.6

11.1 2.8

11.2 2.4

11.2 2.2

11.2 1.4

11.2 0.7

11.2 0.3

11.2 0.3

11.2 0.5

11.3 0.8

11.3 0.9

11.3 0.8

11.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 3.8

3.9 4.7

3.9 1.5

3.9 1.9

3.9 1.8

3.9 1.9

4 1.9

4 1.4

4 1.3

4 1.1

4 1

4 1.2

4 1.2

4 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -0.3

0.7 0.3

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.9

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 0.8

16.5 0.3

16.6 0.6

16.6 0.9

16.6 1.1

16.7 1.2

16.7 1.1

16.8 1.1

16.9 1.3

16.9 1.4

17 1.6

17.1 1.6

17.1 1.7

17.2 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6542.2

6576.2

6620.3

6675.6

6729.8

6789.5

6858.2

6935.8

7006.5

7084.3

7162.5

7235.3

7304.9

7372.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

336.2 0.8

337.2 0.9

338.2 1.1

339.4 1.2

340.8 1.4

342.4 1.5

344.1 1.7

346 1.9

348.1 2.1

350.2 2.3

352.3 2.4

354.5 2.4

356.7 2.5

358.9 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

135.4 1.6

136.2 2.9

137 2.5

137.8 2.3

138.5 2.3

139.3 2.2

140 2.3

140.8 2.2

141.6 2.2

142.3 2.2

143.1 2.2

143.8 2.1

144.4 2

145.1 1.9

Unemployment Rate (%)

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.7

9.7

9.7

9.5

9.4

9.3

9.1

9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

857 827 30

1127 1084 43

1441 1378 63

1809 1712 96

2112 1985 128

2553 2390 162

2896 2698 198

3136 2926 210

3349 3128 221

3555 3334 221

3720 3499 222

3846 3624 222

3929 3701 228

3969 3738 231

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Predators arena football team. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 5.8 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.9. Average annual wage growth will be 2.4 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage will be at a level of 47.2. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 2.1 percent, the highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 105,074.87 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.7 percent annually. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 10.1 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -1.3 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,021,183,903 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,109,000 in April 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to about 98,701 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,000 Orange County Public Schools – 20,949 Advent Health System (Florida Hospital) – 16,771 Universal Orlando Resort – 16,000 Orlando Health – 13,666 UPS – 12,680 University of Central Florida – 10,386 Lockheed Martin Corp. – 9,000 Orange County Government – 7,654 SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 7,000

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Book of Lists 2012 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Does Disney’s Star Wars deal freeze Avatar plans in carbonite?

• On October 30th the Walt Disney Co. announced its $4.05 billion purchase of Lucasfilms Ltd. The possibility of growing the Star Wars brand at Disney parks has been described as an “ample opportunity” and confirmed a 7th installment to the Star Wars film series set for release in 2015. • A large amount of details have already been released about plans for Star Wars, yet Avatar details are still scarce and some are starting to wonder if plans have stopped. However, Disney told Orlando Business Journal the project is still in the design phase.

• In addition, Disney’s Fantasyland will open December 6th to guests and all of its early reveals have come to fruition. Source: The Orlando Business Journal, October 31, 2012


O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Golf Channel seeking to add 75 jobs and expand

• The Golf Channel, an Orlando-based programmer devoted to golf and related topics may be on the verge of growth.

• On December 3rd the company will ask for financial incentives from the city to Orlando to help create 75 new media and telecommunication jobs next year.

• In addition, the company expects to expand its local headquarters and invest $1.9 million in construction and equipment. Source: The Orlando Business Journal, November 29, 2012

Central Florida homeless students’ numbers rise for 5th year

• The number of Central Florida students who are considered homeless has risen for a 5th straight year.

• Orange County Public Schools counted 4,844 homeless students, more than three times the number in 2009. In Lake, 3,541 students were homeless. These school districts recorded the 2nd and 4th highest number of homeless schoolchildren in the state.

• Families with children are the fastest-growing segment of homeless people, according to the state’s Council on Homelessness. Many families report the reason for their homelessness is either unemployment or underemployment. Although the local job market has shown tepid signs of recovery, Davalos said many parents are taking part-time, low-paying positions to replace what were once full-time, decent-paying jobs with benefits. About three-quarters of the families she serves report that the reason for their homelessness is either unemployment or underemployment.

Source: The Orlando Business Journal, November 25, 2012

More $10,000 degrees brewing? Maybe at Valencia

• On November 26, news broke that Florida governor, Rick Scott, challenged colleges to offer a four-year degree for $10,000. Both Valencia and Seminole State College are taking him up on the challenge in different ways.

• Valencia already has an allied health degree that is about as fast and cheap as it can get, but is laying the groundwork for the Life Sciences Institute at the Lake Nona campus, potentially in partnership with the University of Central Florida. • Seminole State College is going to take a look at other degrees. A mention worth noting is that Daytona State College is planning to offer all its bachelor’s degrees at $10,000. Source: The Orlando Business Journal, November 27, 2012

Orlando Health announces layoffs, delays in capital spending

• Sherrie Sitarik, president and CEO of Orlando Health, announced the layoffs and delays in capital spending will enable them to lower the growth trend of health care spending for the organization. Orlando Health will reduce its labor costs 2 to 3% in the coming weeks. • This will affect 320 to 480 positions through a combination of layoffs, attrition, closing unfilled positions, and consolidations.

• Labor reductions are part of a multi-faceted move by the hospital to cut down costs without impacting patient care. Other reductions include eliminations of programs that are admirable but not sustainable, delays in capital spending, reduction in clinical variability, and efficient management of supply chains. Source: The Orlando Business Journal, November 19, 2012

Darden says it won’t reduce full-time staff–for now

• At least for now, Darden Restaurants says it doesn’t plan to scale back on full-time workers as a way to avoid paying more under looming federal healthcare programs. • The assurance was made after a public-relations backlash over an experiment it conducted to limit employee hours at some Olive Gardens, Red Lobsters, and LongHorn Steakhouses.

• Darden spokesman, Rich Jeffers, wrote in an email, “We don’t expect a material change in the mix of our full- and part-time employees, which has historically been 75% part-time and 25% full-time.” Source: The Orlando Sentinel, December 6, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 110000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

70000.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1100.0

6.0%

1050.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0%

950.0

-3.0%

900.0

66

1.4

80000.0

6.0%

850.0

1.2

90000.0

8.0%

1150.0

1

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.6

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

-9.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL December 2012 2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

73.4 5.0 45.5 27.9

75.1 2.3 45.2 29.9

70.2 -6.5 42.2 28.0

73.7 4.9 42.7 31.0

77.1 4.6 44.0 33.1

79.9 3.7 45.7 34.2

83.9 5.0 47.9 36.0

88.8 5.9 50.4 38.5

94.3 6.1 53.2 41.1

100.0 6.1 56.0 44.0

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.6 2.2

68.9 -0.9

64.4 -6.5

66.3 2.9

67.7 2.1

69.0 1.9

71.7 3.8

74.7 4.3

78.0 4.4

81.3 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.6 33.8

35.9 33.0

33.2 30.5

34.4 30.9

35.4 31.1

36.2 31.3

37.3 31.9

38.7 32.6

40.1 33.2

41.6 33.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.6 2.2

42.0 0.9

41.8 -0.5

42.5 1.6

43.2 1.9

44.5 2.9

45.5 2.2

46.6 2.5

47.8 2.5

49.0 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1090.6 2.5

1072.4 -1.7

1005.6 -6.2

1000.9 -0.5

1011.8 1.1

1023.2 1.1

1049.8 2.6

1076.3 2.5

1109.1 3.0

1139.3 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.6

38.0 -1.8

38.0 -0.1

37.9 -0.3

38.1 0.8

38.8 1.7

39.4 1.6

39.9 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1046.0 2.6

1029.6 -1.6

966.9 -6.1

962.9 -0.4

973.8 1.1

985.4 1.2

1011.7 2.7

1037.5 2.6

1069.7 3.1

1099.4 2.8

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.5 -25.0

47.7 -12.5

43.8 -8.1

43.0 -1.9

44.2 2.8

48.9 10.7

56.5 15.3

63.0 11.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

204.0 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186.0 -7.4

186.1 0.0

189.8 2.0

192.7 1.5

196.8 2.1

200.3 1.8

205.3 2.5

211.1 2.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.2 123.7 33.0

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.1 121.7 30.1

38.8 123.3 30.6

40.3 125.3 31.3

41.6 126.4 32.5

43.3 128.3 33.9

44.8 131.1 35.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 3.7

26.2 -1.8

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4.0

23.8 -0.1

23.8 0.3

24.3 2.0

24.7 1.5

25.4 2.8

26.0 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.9 1.1

67.6 -1.9

63.9 -5.4

63.2 -1.1

64.7 2.3

64.6 -0.1

65.5 1.3

66.6 1.7

67.1 0.8

67.5 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

181.2 4.7

177.2 -2.2

164.8 -7.0

161.9 -1.8

161.1 -0.5

161.8 0.4

171.2 5.8

180.6 5.5

192.5 6.6

201.2 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.4 1.7

120.9 2.0

123.1 1.8

124.4 1.1

128.5 3.3

131.9 2.6

136.1 3.2

141.5 4.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

193.6 3.6

199.5 3.1

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

204.0 4.3

211.5 3.7

216.6 2.4

218.2 0.7

218.7 0.2

218.9 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48.0 -6.7

47.5 -1.0

47.6 0.2

47.5 -0.3

47.8 0.7

48.6 1.6

49.2 1.3

49.7 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 0.3

11.8 2.7

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.8

12.0 -6.0

12.1 0.6

11.9 -1.5

11.6 -1.9

11.5 -1.4

11.4 -0.5

106.2 3.4

105.9 -0.3

104.3 -1.5

103.6 -0.7

104.0 0.3

104.0 0.0

105.0 0.9

106.1 1.1

107.5 1.4

109.1 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2061.0 1.9

2090.2 1.4

2116.0 1.2

2144.6 1.4

2175.3 1.4

2208.4 1.5

2248.0 1.8

2295.0 2.1

2348.7 2.3

2401.9 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1102.6 5.1

1120.2 1.6

1104.6 -1.4

1113.0 0.8

1122.4 0.9

1129.2 0.6

1151.5 2.0

1171.8 1.8

1196.4 2.1

1222.3 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

5.9

10.3

11.2

10.4

8.6

8.0

7.5

6.9

6.4

18027.5 12620.9 5407.0

10408.7 5567.0 4842.0

4486.5 3760.6 726.0

5011.1 4410.4 601.0

5689.7 4480.0 1210.0

11174.8 7766.1 3409.0

16441.5 10364.5 6077.0

19269.6 13051.5 6218.0

23864.3 17125.9 6738.0

26765.0 19210.3 7555.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

82.2 4.7 47.1 35.1

83.4 4.6 47.6 35.7

84.5 5.1 48.2 36.3

85.6 5.6 48.8 36.8

87 5.9 49.4 37.6

88.2 5.7 50 38.2

89.4 5.8 50.7 38.8

90.7 6 51.4 39.4

92.2 5.9 52.1 40.1

93.6 6.1 52.8 40.7

94.9 6.2 53.6 41.4

96.3 6.1 54.3 42

97.9 6.2 55 42.9

99.2 6.1 55.7 43.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.5 3.5

71.4 3.5

72 3.9

72.8 4.2

73.7 4.5

74.3 4.1

75.1 4.2

75.9 4.3

76.8 4.2

77.6 4.5

78.5 4.5

79.2 4.4

80.2 4.5

80.9 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.8 31.6

37.2 31.8

37.5 32

37.8 32.1

38.2 32.4

38.5 32.5

38.9 32.6

39.2 32.8

39.6 33

40 33.1

40.3 33.3

40.7 33.5

41.1 33.7

41.4 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.1 2.2

45.3 1.9

45.6 2.2

45.8 2.5

46.2 2.4

46.4 2.4

46.7 2.5

47 2.6

47.3 2.6

47.6 2.5

47.9 2.5

48.2 2.5

48.5 2.5

48.8 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1039.9 2.7

1046.1 2.7

1053.2 2.5

1060.2 2.6

1066 2.5

1072.1 2.5

1079.4 2.5

1087.7 2.6

1096.3 2.8

1104.8 3

1113.5 3.2

1121.9 3.1

1129.4 3

1136 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37.9 -0.2

38.1 0.3

38.3 1.4

38.4 1.6

38.6 1.8

38.7 1.7

38.9 1.6

39.1 1.9

39.3 1.8

39.4 1.7

39.5 1.6

39.6 1.4

39.8 1.3

39.9 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1002 2.8

1008 2.8

1014.9 2.5

1021.9 2.6

1027.5 2.5

1033.4 2.5

1040.5 2.5

1048.6 2.6

1057 2.9

1065.4 3.1

1074 3.2

1082.2 3.2

1089.6 3.1

1096.1 2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

43.2 0.5

43.7 -0.2

44.4 4.9

45.5 6

46.7 7.9

48.1 10

49.7 11.8

51.3 12.8

53.4 14.4

55.5 15.3

57.5 15.8

59.4 15.8

61.1 14.3

62.4 12.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

195.2 2.3

196.1 2

197.3 2.1

198.4 2.1

198.9 1.9

199.7 1.8

200.7 1.7

201.9 1.8

203 2.1

204.3 2.3

206 2.6

207.7 2.9

209.1 3

210.4 3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

39.9 124.7 30.7

40.1 125 31.1

40.5 125.6 31.4

40.8 126 31.8

41.1 126 32.1

41.4 126.2 32.4

41.8 126.5 32.7

42.2 127 33

42.7 127.2 33.4

43.1 127.8 33.7

43.5 128.6 34.1

43.9 129.5 34.5

44.3 130.1 34.8

44.6 130.7 35.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24 1.8

24.4 2.6

24.5 1.8

24.4 1.9

24.4 1.8

24.5 0.6

24.7 1.1

25 2.3

25.1 2.9

25.3 3.1

25.4 2.8

25.6 2.5

25.8 2.5

25.9 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

65.1 1.5

65.3 1

65.5 1.2

65.9 1.5

66.2 1.7

66.5 1.9

66.7 1.8

66.9 1.4

67 1.2

67 0.8

67.1 0.6

67.2 0.5

67.3 0.5

67.4 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

167.7 6.1

170 6.1

172.4 5.2

174.7 5.8

176.2 5.1

178.7 5.1

182 5.6

185.5 6.2

188.4 6.9

191.3 7.1

194 6.6

196.2 5.7

198.2 5.2

200.2 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

127.5 4

127.9 4.4

128.9 2.6

129.7 2.2

130.8 2.6

131.4 2.7

132.2 2.5

133.1 2.7

134.1 2.6

135.5 3.1

136.7 3.5

138 3.6

139.4 3.9

140.9 4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

215 2.6

216.3 2.8

217.1 2.3

218.1 2

218.5 1.6

218.3 1

218 0.4

217.9 -0.1

218.5 0

218.5 0.1

218.7 0.3

219.2 0.6

219.3 0.4

218.9 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.6 0

47.7 0.4

47.9 1

48.1 1.6

48.3 1.5

48.5 1.7

48.7 1.8

48.8 1.4

49 1.4

49.1 1.3

49.3 1.1

49.4 1.2

49.6 1.2

49.7 1.2

12 -1

11.9 -1.6

11.8 -1.6

11.8 -1.9

11.7 -1.9

11.7 -2

11.6 -2

11.6 -1.9

11.5 -1.8

11.5 -1.5

11.5 -1.2

11.5 -0.9

11.4 -0.7

11.4 -0.6

104.6 1.3

104.8 0.9

105.1 0.6

105.4 0.9

105.7 1

105.9 1.1

106.2 1.1

106.6 1.1

106.9 1.2

107.4 1.3

107.8 1.5

108.1 1.5

108.5 1.5

108.9 1.5

99219 100156 100950 101938 103075 104314 105478 106670 107845 108934 110006 111003

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

97893

98455

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2232.2 1.7

2242.5 1.8

2253 1.8

2264.4 1.9

2276.1 2

2288.3 2

2301.1 2.1

2314.3 2.2

2328 2.3

2341.9 2.3

2355.7 2.4

2369.2 2.4

2382.4 2.3

2395.5 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1144.6 2

1149 2.5

1153.5 1.8

1158.8 1.6

1164 1.7

1169.1 1.7

1174.4 1.8

1179.8 1.8

1186 1.9

1193 2

1200.2 2.2

1206.5 2.3

1212.8 2.3

1219.1 2.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

8.1

8

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.4

15767 9781 5986

16009 10004 6006

16625 10570 6055

17365 11104 6261

17815 11542 6273

18706 12572 6134

19684 13522 6162

20874 14570 6304

22078 15605 6473

23394 16766 6628

24580 17732 6848

25405 18401 7004

26078 18823 7255

26501 19052 7449

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.2 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 36.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at 52.9, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 17,311.42 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 267,597 in December of 2011 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 8.2 percent.

• Brevard County School Board- 9,140

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 10.3 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest annual growth rate at 5.3 percent, followed by the Education and Health Services sector at 2.2 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -2.2 percent annually.

• Harris Corporation Employees - 6,130

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• An unemployment rate of 11.1% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,662 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• Health First Employees - 6,350

• United Space Alliance, LLC Employees – 3,830 • Brevard County Board of County Comm. – 2,390 • Department of Defense - 2260

• Health Management Associates – 2,220 • NASA – 2,210

• Brevard Community College – 1,580

• Rockwell Collins, Inc. Employees - 1,500 • DRS INC – 1,440

• Northrup Grumman – 1,400

• Florida Institute of Technology – 1,190 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

FPL fires up gas turbine in Port St. John

• The first of three Siemens’ H-Class gas turbines was recently successfully started at Florida Power & Light Co.’s Next Generation Clean Energy Center in Port St. John. • When FPL’s state-of-the-art Clean Energy Center enters operation next year, its Siemens’ gas turbines are projected to generate power with 33 percent less fuel per megawatt-hour than the site’s previous plant.

• Because of this fuel efficiency, FPL expects that the new plant will more than pay for itself with fuel savings for customers estimated at more than $1 billion during its 30-year operational life. Source: Florida Today, November 24, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Harris breaks ground on new engineering complex in Palm Bay • Gov. Rick Scott was in attendance as a groundbreaking ceremony took place for a sixstory engineering complex at the Harris Corp. campus in Palm Bay.

• The building is scheduled to open in 2014. About 300 construction jobs will be created and about 100 engineering jobs will result from the new structure.

• The building will be one of Brevard County’s tallest structures, and officials expect it to be a beacon to economic potential and a draw for the nation’s top engineers. Source: Florida Today, November 20, 2012

Jet maker Embraer breaks ground at airport

• Embraer Jets is scheduled to break ground on its Engineering and Technology Center USA at Melbourne International Airport. • The 67,000-square-foot Embraer Engineering and Technology Center is being built on 13.2 acres on the north side of General Aviation Drive. • The center is expected to employ 200 people with an average annual salary of $70,000. Embraer officials have said the vast majority of new hires are expected to be from Brevard County.

Source: Florida Today, November 22, 2012

‘Project Karl’ could breathe new life into Palm Bay Chevy site

• The long-vacant Palm Bay Chevrolet building could have a new tenant soon that has the potential to bring 150 jobs to the city during the next three years. • The Brevard County Commission is scheduled to vote on a proposal indicating the county’s willingness to issue up to $10 million in bonds to spur redevelopment of the 110,658-squarefoot site at 1450 Executive Drive N.E., near the Palm Bay Road exit off Interstate 95.

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

• Under the plan, the county would be the conduit for the issuance of what’s known as “private-activity bonds,” but would not assume any of the risks or pay any of the bond costs. Source: Florida Today, November 25, 2012

Details on Health First-SCHF deal under wraps

• A seven-year legal battle that generated thousands and thousands of pages of legal paperwork ended with a simple two-page document filed in Brevard County circuit court Nov. 20. • Space Coast Health Foundation—the charity set up with the proceeds from the sale of Wuesthoff Health System to a for-profit company—ended its anti-trust claims against Health First, the county’s largest health care provider. • Health First and the foundation say they will work together on a new initiative to increase access to health care for the uninsured and underinsured in Brevard.

Source: Florida Today, December 3, 2012


P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

2.5

3

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL December 2012 2007 2008 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.7 4.5 9.5 10.2

20.4 3.5 9.5 11.0

19.4 -4.8 9.2 10.3

20.3 4.6 9.3 11.1

21.1 3.7 9.4 11.7

21.7 3.0 9.7 12.0

22.6 4.0 10.1 12.4

23.8 5.3 10.7 13.1

25.1 5.6 11.3 13.9

26.6 6.0 11.9 14.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 1.8

18.8 0.2

17.8 -4.9

18.3 2.6

18.5 1.2

18.8 1.3

19.3 2.8

20.0 3.7

20.8 3.9

21.7 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.6 34.7

37.7 34.6

35.9 32.9

37.4 33.7

38.8 34.1

39.8 34.4

41.1 35.1

42.7 35.9

44.4 36.8

46.4 37.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 2.5

45.1 2.9

46.0 2.0

46.9 1.8

47.9 2.2

49.3 3.0

50.6 2.6

52.1 3.0

53.7 3.0

55.3 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

213.7 -1.2

207.3 -3.0

196.6 -5.1

195.0 -0.8

193.7 -0.6

194.4 0.4

197.6 1.6

201.6 2.0

206.7 2.5

211.8 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8.0

20.5 -5.9

20.5 -0.4

20.3 -0.7

20.5 1.1

20.9 1.6

21.2 1.5

21.5 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

189.6 -1.1

183.5 -3.2

174.8 -4.8

174.4 -0.2

173.2 -0.7

174.1 0.5

177.0 1.7

180.7 2.1

185.5 2.6

190.3 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 -15.0

13.0 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.7 -12.5

8.1 -7.0

7.6 -6.1

7.9 4.4

8.8 11.0

10.0 14.6

11.2 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.9 -1.5

35.4 -3.8

33.0 -6.9

32.7 -0.9

34.1 4.3

35.2 3.1

35.5 1.0

35.7 0.6

36.2 1.3

37.0 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.6 28.0 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.2 24.9 2.9

5.0 24.7 3.0

5.2 25.1 3.8

5.3 25.8 4.0

5.4 26.1 4.0

5.5 26.1 4.1

5.7 26.3 4.2

5.9 26.7 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -3.0

2.5 2.7

2.6 4.6

2.4 -8.8

2.3 -6.0

2.3 1.7

2.3 0.4

2.3 0.8

2.4 2.5

2.4 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.9

7.6 -3.5

7.3 -3.8

7.4 0.5

7.5 1.6

7.7 2.2

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.9 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32.5 0.7

30.8 -5.3

30.1 -2.4

31.4 4.5

33.0 5.1

35.2 6.7

37.0 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 4.0

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.8

32.3 3.4

32.8 1.8

33.5 2.1

34.1 1.8

34.9 2.1

35.6 2.1

36.6 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 1.4

22.2 -4.1

21.3 -4.0

21.2 -0.4

21.5 1.5

22.0 2.2

22.3 1.3

22.3 0.1

22.2 -0.5

22.1 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.0 -1.1

7.9 -1.6

7.4 -5.7

7.6 2.8

7.8 2.4

7.8 0.0

7.8 0.5

7.9 0.9

7.9 0.3

8.0 0.4

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.0

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.4

6.4 -5.4

6.1 -3.9

6.0 -2.4

5.8 -2.7

5.7 -2.2

5.6 -1.3

22.8 1.0

22.8 0.0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.8

22.1 -2.4

22.1 0.1

22.1 0.2

22.3 0.6

22.4 0.8

22.7 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

539.9 0.8

542.2 0.4

542.4 0.1

543.2 0.1

543.7 0.1

545.4 0.3

549.8 0.8

556.9 1.3

565.4 1.5

574.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

266.7 1.6

268.9 0.9

266.3 -1.0

266.7 0.1

267.7 0.4

268.2 0.2

274.9 2.5

281.4 2.4

287.3 2.1

291.8 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

72

4.2

6.5

10.2

11.1

11.1

9.4

8.5

8.4

8.1

7.6

2862.8 2218.7 644.0

1667.7 1283.2 385.0

972.8 867.8 105.0

1083.8 995.2 89.0

959.2 843.4 116.0

1255.1 1238.8 16.0

2525.9 2245.9 280.0

3967.5 3161.2 806.0

5230.8 4119.6 1111.0

5817.3 4587.6 1230.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.2 3.5 10 12.2

22.5 3.4 10.1 12.4

22.7 4.2 10.2 12.5

23 4.7 10.3 12.7

23.4 5.3 10.5 12.9

23.6 5.2 10.6 13

23.9 5.3 10.7 13.2

24.2 5.4 10.9 13.4

24.6 5.2 11 13.6

24.9 5.6 11.2 13.8

25.3 5.7 11.3 14

25.7 5.9 11.5 14.2

26.1 6 11.7 14.4

26.4 6 11.8 14.6

19 2.4

19.2 2.2

19.4 3.1

19.5 3.4

19.8 3.9

19.9 3.6

20.1 3.7

20.3 3.7

20.5 3.5

20.7 3.9

20.9 4.1

21.1 4.2

21.4 4.3

21.6 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.5 34.8

40.9 35

41.3 35.2

41.6 35.4

42.2 35.7

42.5 35.8

42.9 36

43.3 36.2

43.8 36.4

44.2 36.7

44.6 36.9

45.1 37.1

45.7 37.4

46.1 37.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.1 2.5

50.4 2.4

50.8 2.7

51.1 3

51.5 2.9

51.9 2.9

52.3 3

52.7 3

53.1 3

53.5 3

53.9 3

54.3 3

54.7 3.1

55.1 3.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196 1.1

197 1.3

198.1 2

199.1 2.1

200.1 2.1

200.9 2

202 2

203.2 2.1

204.5 2.2

205.9 2.5

207.4 2.7

208.8 2.8

210.1 2.7

211.2 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 0.3

20.5 1.1

20.6 1.4

20.6 1.5

20.8 1.7

20.8 1.4

20.9 1.5

21 1.8

21.1 1.4

21.1 1.6

21.2 1.6

21.3 1.6

21.4 1.5

21.4 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

175.6 1.2

176.5 1.4

177.5 2.1

178.5 2.1

179.3 2.1

180.1 2

181.1 2

182.3 2.1

183.4 2.3

184.8 2.6

186.2 2.8

187.5 2.9

188.7 2.9

189.7 2.7

7.7 0.3

7.8 5.7

7.9 5.1

8.1 6.4

8.4 8.3

8.6 10.3

8.9 11.9

9.2 13.4

9.5 14.2

9.9 14.7

10.2 15.1

10.5 14.4

10.8 13.4

11.1 12.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.4 0.7

35.4 0.7

35.6 1.3

35.7 1.1

35.7 1

35.7 0.7

35.7 0.4

35.8 0.4

35.9 0.7

36.1 1.1

36.3 1.5

36.5 1.9

36.7 2.2

36.9 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 26 4

5.4 26.1 4

5.4 26.2 4

5.4 26.2 4.1

5.5 26.2 4.1

5.5 26.1 4.1

5.5 26.1 4.1

5.6 26.2 4.2

5.6 26.2 4.2

5.7 26.2 4.2

5.7 26.3 4.3

5.8 26.5 4.3

5.8 26.6 4.3

5.9 26.7 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -1.8

2.3 1.5

2.3 0.9

2.3 0.9

2.3 1.1

2.3 0

2.3 0.5

2.3 1.7

2.4 2.1

2.4 2.6

2.4 2.6

2.4 2.7

2.4 2.8

2.4 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 0.6

7.5 1.1

7.5 2.2

7.6 2.4

7.6 2.3

7.7 2.6

7.7 2.4

7.7 1.7

7.7 1.1

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.4

7.7 0.3

7.7 0.4

7.7 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.8 5

31.2 2.3

31.6 5.1

32 5.6

32.3 4.9

32.7 4.8

33.3 5.2

33.8 5.6

34.3 6.3

35 6.8

35.6 6.9

36.1 6.7

36.5 6.1

36.8 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 1.6

34 1.6

34.2 2.3

34.4 1.9

34.6 2.2

34.8 2.1

34.9 2

35.1 2.2

35.3 1.9

35.5 2.2

35.7 2.3

35.9 2.2

36.2 2.5

36.5 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 0

22.3 1.8

22.3 1.8

22.4 1.4

22.4 1.1

22.3 0.3

22.3 -0.4

22.2 -0.8

22.2 -0.8

22.2 -0.6

22.2 -0.3

22.2 -0.1

22.2 -0.3

22.1 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -0.4

7.8 0.5

7.9 0.7

7.9 1.1

7.9 1

7.9 1.1

7.9 1

7.9 0.6

7.9 0.4

7.9 0.3

7.9 0.1

7.9 0.3

8 0.3

8 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -2.3

6 -1.8

6 -2.5

5.9 -2.9

5.9 -2.8

5.8 -2.7

5.8 -2.7

5.8 -2.7

5.7 -2.6

5.7 -2.3

5.7 -2

5.7 -1.7

5.6 -1.5

5.6 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 0

22.1 0.1

22.1 0.1

22.2 0.5

22.2 0.6

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.5

22.3 0.5

22.4 0.7

22.4 0.7

22.5 0.9

22.5 1

22.6 1.1

22.7 1.1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16268

16351

16459

16593

16727

16864

17021

17196

17352

17533

17711

17875

18025

18169

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

547.7 0.6

549 0.7

550.5 0.9

552.1 1

553.9 1.1

555.9 1.3

557.8 1.3

559.9 1.4

562 1.5

564.3 1.5

566.5 1.5

568.7 1.6

570.9 1.6

573 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

272.3 2.1

274.1 2.5

275.7 2.8

277.5 2.6

279.1 2.5

280.6 2.4

282.2 2.4

283.7 2.2

285.2 2.2

286.7 2.1

288.1 2.1

289.2 1.9

290.2 1.8

291.3 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.2

8

7.9

7.7

7.6

2064 1897 167

2324 2113 210

2661 2365 297

3055 2608 446

3352 2767 585

3801 3064 737

4178 3271 907

4539 3542 996

4839 3780 1058

5129 4037 1092

5391 4257 1134

5565 4404 1161

5680 4490 1190

5753 4542 1211

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.6 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 33.5. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.5 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 44.3. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.9 percent, the second lowest of the studied metro areas. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,221.77 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 206,530 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April 2012. This amounts to 16,239 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857 employees

• Federal Government – 7,162 employees

• Escambia County School District – 5,376 employees • State Government – 5,253 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 employees

• Santa Rosa County School District – 2,600 employees • Lakeview Center – 2,000 employees

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,365 employees

Sources: Escambia County School District, Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 7.1 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 9.4 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 5.1 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -2.4 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Escambia, Santa Rosa groups receive funds from BP grants • Sixteen groups from Escambia County and Santa Rosa County will receive a total of $7 million dollars over a two year period.

• Such groups include: Santa Rosa Island Authority, National Flight Academy, National Aviation Foundation, Perdido Key Chamber of Commerce, Santa Rosa County Tourism Development Council, Veterans Memorial Park, and Pensacola State College. • Within the various groups, the money is planned to be invested in tourism or tourism related activities. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 13, 2012


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Escambia County Commission approves four-cent tax increase on gasoline • The tax will create a permanent source of income for the Escambia County Transit System.

• The four-cent-per-gallon tax increase is expected to generate about $4 million per year once it is initiated in January of 2014. • The tax is expected to cost motorists between $18 and $25 per year; however to eliminate the burden on tax payers there will be a slight reduction in property taxes.

Big hopes for Pensacola’s retail sector

• In the newly renovated Cordova Commons on Airport Boulevard, Marshalls and Ultra opened their doors. Soon to follow these two stores are Fresh Market and the shoe retailer DSW. • University Town Plaza has developed 700,000 square feet of space to complement the existing stores of Sears and JC Penney.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 2, 2012

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 20, 2012

Pensacola launches First-Time Homebuyer Program

• The First-Time Homebuyer Program allows eligible families to receive up to $10,000 in a form of a forgivable loan to help with covering the down payment and closing costs. • The First-Time Homebuyer Program only applies to homes within the city of Pensacola selling for less than $189,000 that were built after January 1, 1978.

• Pensacola launched the program to attract more people to live in the city. Between 2000 and 2010 Pensacola lost 4,000 people. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 18, 2012

Tourism Development Council sets up festival promotion fund

• The Tourism Development Council has set up a $200,000 fund to promote small events and festivals.

• Visit Pensacola will screen and approve applications in order to “take the politics” out of the allocation process.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 12, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

14000.0

8.0%

12500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11500.0

4.0%

11000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10500.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0% -2.0%

155.0

76

1.6

12000.0

6.0%

150.0

1.4

13500.0 13000.0

175.0

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL December 2012 2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.9 5.1 7.0 7.9

15.3 3.3 7.0 8.4

14.9 -2.6 6.8 8.1

15.8 5.8 6.9 8.9

16.5 4.4 7.0 9.5

16.9 2.1 7.1 9.7

17.5 3.6 7.4 10.1

18.3 4.7 7.7 10.6

19.2 5.0 8.0 11.2

20.2 5.2 8.4 11.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.4

14.1 0.0

13.7 -2.7

14.2 3.8

14.5 1.9

14.6 0.3

14.9 2.4

15.4 3.2

15.9 3.3

16.4 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.5 31.7

34.4 31.6

33.4 30.7

35.1 31.6

36.4 32.0

36.9 31.9

37.9 32.4

39.4 33.1

41.0 33.9

42.6 34.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.5 2.6

38.8 3.4

39.9 2.6

39.8 0.0

40.5 1.6

41.7 2.9

42.6 2.3

43.7 2.6

44.9 2.6

46.0 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.6 0.0

165.1 -4.3

157.0 -4.9

159.1 1.4

160.4 0.8

157.5 -1.8

160.0 1.6

162.6 1.6

166.0 2.1

169.4 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.0 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.3 -0.5

5.3 -0.5

5.3 0.4

5.4 1.1

5.5 1.2

5.5 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.6 0.3

158.6 -4.2

151.6 -4.5

153.7 1.4

155.0 0.8

152.2 -1.9

154.6 1.6

157.2 1.6

160.5 2.1

163.9 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 -3.9

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.6 -0.6

9.9 -6.4

9.4 -4.9

9.7 2.9

10.6 10.2

12.1 13.7

13.4 10.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.7 0.9

29.3 -1.2

29.7 1.5

29.8 0.3

30.1 0.9

30.6 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

5.0 20.7 4.0

4.7 20.6 3.9

4.8 21.1 3.9

4.8 21.0 4.0

4.9 21.1 4.1

5.1 21.4 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 -5.8

3.5 -2.6

3.2 -6.8

3.3 1.6

3.2 -2.4

3.1 -3.7

3.1 0.0

3.1 0.6

3.2 2.2

3.2 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 3.0

8.8 -3.7

8.6 -2.8

8.5 -1.2

8.5 0.2

8.3 -1.9

8.5 1.5

8.6 1.7

8.6 0.0

8.6 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.6 -4.6

19.1 -7.0

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

20.7 5.3

20.0 -3.3

21.0 4.6

22.0 4.8

23.4 6.4

24.4 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.7 4.2

28.2 -1.5

28.0 -1.0

28.9 3.4

29.3 1.5

28.9 -1.4

29.4 1.6

29.9 1.7

30.3 1.4

30.9 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

18.1 2.8

19.2 6.2

19.2 0.0

19.6 2.2

19.6 -0.1

19.5 -0.7

19.3 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -0.5

7.3 -6.4

6.7 -8.5

6.4 -4.5

6.1 -4.2

5.8 -4.2

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.3

6.9 -4.5

6.8 -1.7

6.6 -2.2

6.4 -3.1

6.3 -2.5

6.1 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 1.0

22.3 -1.8

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -1.0

21.3 -1.2

21.2 -0.4

21.2 0.0

21.3 0.1

21.3 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

443.9 0.2

445.5 0.4

447.1 0.4

450.1 0.7

453.6 0.8

456.9 0.7

460.5 0.8

464.4 0.9

468.8 0.9

474.3 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

211.2 2.7

208.6 -1.2

206.9 -0.8

210.8 1.9

213.7 1.4

210.2 -1.6

211.7 0.7

213.4 0.8

215.2 0.8

216.6 0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

5.8

9.4

10.0

9.8

8.4

7.6

7.4

7.0

6.6

2426.5 1786.6 640.0

1325.9 1126.7 199.0

1035.4 954.4 81.0

1823.6 1369.2 454.0

1195.6 1194.7 1.0

1585.7 1557.2 29.0

1864.9 1630.9 234.0

2050.8 1716.2 335.0

2552.3 2196.0 356.0

2795.1 2425.7 369.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.2 3.5 7.3 9.9

17.4 3.3 7.4 10

17.6 3.6 7.4 10.1

17.7 4.1 7.5 10.2

18 4.7 7.6 10.4

18.2 4.6 7.7 10.5

18.4 4.7 7.7 10.7

18.6 4.9 7.8 10.8

18.9 4.7 7.9 10.9

19.1 5 8 11.1

19.3 5.1 8.1 11.2

19.6 5.2 8.2 11.4

19.8 5.3 8.3 11.6

20.1 5.3 8.4 11.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 2.3

14.9 2.1

15 2.5

15.1 2.8

15.2 3.3

15.3 3.1

15.4 3.1

15.6 3.2

15.7 3

15.8 3.3

16 3.5

16.1 3.5

16.3 3.6

16.4 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

37.5 32.1

37.8 32.3

38.1 32.5

38.4 32.6

38.9 32.9

39.2 33

39.5 33.2

39.9 33.4

40.4 33.6

40.8 33.8

41.2 34

41.6 34.2

42 34.4

42.4 34.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.2 2.3

42.5 2.1

42.8 2.3

43 2.6

43.3 2.5

43.6 2.5

43.9 2.6

44.1 2.6

44.4 2.6

44.7 2.6

45 2.6

45.3 2.6

45.6 2.7

45.9 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

159 1.5

159.6 1.7

160.3 1.5

160.9 1.6

161.6 1.7

162.1 1.6

162.8 1.6

163.7 1.7

164.5 1.8

165.5 2.1

166.5 2.3

167.5 2.3

168.3 2.3

169 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 0.2

5.3 0

5.4 0.5

5.4 0.8

5.4 1.2

5.4 1

5.4 1

5.4 1.4

5.4 1.2

5.5 1.2

5.5 1.2

5.5 1.1

5.5 0.8

5.5 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

153.7 1.5

154.3 1.7

154.9 1.6

155.6 1.6

156.2 1.7

156.8 1.6

157.4 1.6

158.3 1.7

159.1 1.8

160 2.1

161 2.3

162 2.4

162.8 2.3

163.5 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 -1.5

9.6 3.4

9.7 4.4

9.9 5.6

10.2 7.5

10.5 9.4

10.8 11

11.2 12.6

11.5 13.3

11.9 13.8

12.3 14.2

12.7 13.6

13 12.5

13.3 11.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 2.6

29.7 1.7

29.7 0.9

29.8 0.8

29.8 0.6

29.8 0.3

29.8 0.1

29.8 0.1

29.9 0.3

30 0.7

30.1 1.1

30.3 1.5

30.4 1.8

30.5 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.7 21 3.9

4.8 21 3.9

4.8 21.1 3.9

4.8 21.1 3.9

4.8 21.1 4

4.8 21 4

4.8 21 4

4.9 21 4

4.9 21 4

4.9 21 4

4.9 21.1 4.1

5 21.2 4.1

5 21.3 4.1

5 21.3 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -0.7

3.1 -0.5

3.1 0.5

3.1 0.6

3.1 0.8

3.1 -0.2

3.1 0.3

3.1 1.4

3.1 1.9

3.2 2.3

3.2 2.2

3.2 2.3

3.2 2.3

3.2 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 1.3

8.4 1.3

8.5 1.7

8.5 1.9

8.6 1.9

8.6 2.1

8.6 1.9

8.6 1.2

8.6 0.5

8.6 0

8.6 -0.2

8.6 -0.3

8.6 -0.2

8.6 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.6 3.8

20.8 4.7

21.1 4.7

21.3 5.3

21.5 4.6

21.8 4.5

22.1 4.9

22.5 5.2

22.8 6

23.2 6.5

23.6 6.6

23.9 6.5

24.1 5.8

24.3 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 1.5

29.3 1.7

29.5 1.9

29.6 1.5

29.8 1.8

29.8 1.7

29.9 1.5

30.1 1.7

30.1 1.2

30.3 1.5

30.4 1.6

30.5 1.5

30.7 1.8

30.8 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 3.5

19.6 2.4

19.6 1.7

19.7 1.3

19.7 0.9

19.6 0.1

19.5 -0.5

19.5 -1

19.5 -1

19.5 -0.8

19.4 -0.5

19.4 -0.4

19.4 -0.5

19.3 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.8

5.8 0.3

5.9 0.6

5.9 0.9

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.9

5.9 0.9

5.9 0.5

5.9 0.2

5.9 0.1

5.9 -0.1

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.2

6.7 -1

6.6 -1.8

6.6 -2.8

6.5 -3.2

6.5 -3.1

6.4 -3.1

6.4 -3.1

6.3 -3.1

6.3 -3

6.3 -2.7

6.2 -2.4

6.2 -2.1

6.2 -1.9

6.2 -1.8

21.2 -0.4

21.2 -0.4

21.2 -0.5

21.2 -0.1

21.2 0.1

21.3 0.1

21.2 0

21.2 0

21.3 0.1

21.3 0.1

21.3 0.2

21.3 0.2

21.3 0.2

21.3 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12624

12661

12716

12790

12862

12943

13037

13144

13240

13349

13458

13556

13649

13736

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

459 0.7

460 0.8

461 0.8

461.9 0.8

462.9 0.8

463.9 0.9

464.9 0.9

465.9 0.9

467 0.9

468.2 0.9

469.4 1

470.7 1

472.2 1.1

473.6 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

211.1 0

211.5 1

211.9 1

212.4 0.8

212.8 0.8

213.2 0.8

213.6 0.8

214.1 0.8

214.5 0.8

215 0.9

215.5 0.9

215.8 0.8

216.1 0.7

216.4 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.1

7

6.8

6.7

6.6

1861 1712 148

1832 1633 199

1874 1613 261

1892 1565 328

1915 1577 338

1990 1657 333

2071 1743 328

2227 1888 339

2369 2019 350

2509 2155 353

2627 2267 360

2705 2342 362

2747 2384 364

2772 2405 367

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.7 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 31.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent. The average annual wage level will be 45.2. Population growth will be at 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,241.60 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 369,758 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 189,722 in April 2012 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 6.7% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,720 unemployed people for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 30,918 • Florida State University – 6,450 • Leon County Schools – 4,444 • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,130 • City of Tallahassee – 2,708 • Publix Super Markets – 2,084 • Leon County – 1,918 • Florida A&M University – 1,888 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Capital Regional Medical Center – 890

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 6.0 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 9.3 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 5.1 percent. The Leisure and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.1 and -2.0 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Interior design grad program at FSU rated nation’s best • Florida State University has a department of interior design with a graduate program. This graduate program has been named the most admired program of its kind.

• Within the graduate program, there are 30 students and the department has approximately 175 undergraduate students. Source: Tallahassee.com, November 20, 2012

Leon County commissioners approve incentive for possible employer moving here • The commissioners of Leon County have approved a resolution to give $56,000 toward recruiting a professional services firm, Project Hunt.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


T a l l aha s s ee

• The firm works with Fortune 500, middlemarket and government companies that focus on various fields such as technology and real estate.

• The company would create 100 jobs immediately if relocated to Leon County and 40 jobs over the next three years. The company hopes to be working by summer of 2013. Source: Tallahassee.com, December 11, 2012

Local shops have big day

• Various local businesses in Tallahassee participated in the Small Business Saturday event. The event was sponsored by American Express and it was a national shop local initiative.

• Many shop owners believe that business was much better this year and that the American Express promotional material may have helped. • American Express cardholders who registered their cards with the company received $25 of credit with a purchase from a local business. Source: Tallahassee.com, November 24, 2012

Centennial Bank completes its acquisition of Premier Bank

• The purchase of Premier Bank by Centennial Bank was completed on December 3. Premier Bank Holding Co. agreed to the transaction in August.

• Customers can continue using bank cards, checks, and loan payment procedures as normal. Changeover for back-office computer functions should be completed after the first quarter of 2013. • The purchase allows Premier to raise additional capital to meet regulatory requirements set in 2010. Source: Tallahassee.com, December 3, 2012

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

FWC meeting to discuss oyster, bay status

• The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission met in early December to discuss the status and regulation of the troubled Apalachicola Bay oyster industry, among other topics.

• The bay provides 90 percent of Florida’s oysters and 10 percent of the supply of oysters in the United States. • In September, Gov. Rick Scott declared a commercial fishery failure, saying that Apalachicola Bay was “poor and unlikely to sustain commercial harvesting levels.”

• Current efforts focus on restoring the oyster population in the Bay, such as limiting fishing days, negotiating fresh water access with Alabama and Georgia, and placing empty shells in the Bay to regrow oyster habitats. Source: Tallahassee.com, December 3, 2012


T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0

10.0% 8.0%

12000.0

6.0% 11000.0

4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 180.0

(Thousands)

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0% 2.0%

170.0

0.0% -2.0%

165.0 160.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL December 2012 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.8 5.5 6.9 5.0

12.3 3.5 6.9 5.3

11.7 -4.3 6.8 5.0

12.3 4.8 6.8 5.5

12.8 3.7 6.9 5.8

13.0 2.3 7.0 6.0

13.5 3.5 7.3 6.2

14.2 4.9 7.6 6.6

14.9 5.0 8.0 6.9

15.7 5.4 8.3 7.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 2.7

11.3 0.3

10.8 -4.3

11.1 2.8

11.2 1.3

11.3 0.5

11.5 2.3

11.9 3.3

12.3 3.4

12.7 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.1 31.4

33.9 31.1

32.1 29.5

33.4 30.1

34.5 30.3

35.0 30.3

36.0 30.7

37.3 31.4

38.7 32.1

40.2 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.5 3.6

39.2 1.8

39.4 0.5

40.0 1.6

40.9 2.1

42.1 3.0

43.2 2.7

44.5 3.0

45.8 3.0

47.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

178.0 1.1

176.4 -0.9

171.4 -2.8

169.3 -1.2

168.2 -0.6

166.7 -0.9

167.8 0.6

169.9 1.3

172.9 1.8

175.9 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -9.8

3.2 -3.8

3.2 -0.7

3.2 1.9

3.3 1.9

3.4 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

173.4 1.1

172.1 -0.8

167.5 -2.7

165.6 -1.2

164.9 -0.4

163.5 -0.8

164.6 0.7

166.6 1.2

169.6 1.8

172.6 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 -3.0

8.6 -9.7

7.0 -18.1

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4.0

5.9 -3.9

6.1 2.8

6.7 10.0

7.6 13.7

8.4 10.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 -1.2

24.0 -4.5

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.2 -0.1

21.5 -2.8

21.7 0.5

21.7 0.2

21.9 0.9

22.3 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.6 18.5 1.9

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.2 1.6

3.3 16.6 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.5 16.7 1.7

3.6 17.0 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 2.8

3.6 0.5

3.4 -6.0

3.1 -9.1

3.2 2.5

3.2 1.9

3.2 -0.5

3.2 0.7

3.3 2.3

3.4 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -2.9

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 2.1

7.6 1.0

7.7 0.8

7.8 1.6

7.8 0.1

7.8 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.5 -3.6

18.2 -1.6

18.6 2.7

18.9 1.5

19.8 4.4

20.7 4.9

22.1 6.5

23.1 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 3.8

19.2 4.0

19.5 1.4

19.5 0.2

19.8 1.4

20.3 2.4

20.6 1.5

20.9 1.6

21.2 1.6

21.7 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.0 3.6

16.7 -1.5

16.4 -1.7

16.2 -1.3

16.0 -1.1

16.3 1.4

16.4 1.1

16.4 -0.2

16.3 -0.7

16.2 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.0 5.9

9.8 8.9

9.9 2.0

9.6 -3.4

9.1 -5.8

9.1 0.9

9.2 0.2

9.2 1.0

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 0.0

2.0 3.9

2.0 1.2

2.1 5.0

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -0.9

1.9 -2.0

1.8 -2.7

1.8 -2.0

1.7 -1.2

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1.0

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0.0

60.4 -0.8

58.7 -2.9

58.2 -0.9

58.1 -0.1

58.3 0.3

58.7 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

357.7 1.8

361.6 1.1

365.2 1.0

368.0 0.8

370.0 0.6

372.2 0.6

375.1 0.8

379.2 1.1

384.2 1.3

389.7 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

188.2 3.5

191.4 1.7

191.8 0.2

191.9 0.1

192.4 0.3

191.8 -0.3

193.7 1.0

196.4 1.4

198.6 1.1

199.9 0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

3.1

4.7

7.3

8.3

8.3

7.3

6.4

6.1

5.9

5.7

2765.6 2181.3 584.0

1235.5 961.9 274.0

827.3 612.9 214.0

658.5 603.1 55.0

782.8 563.4 219.0

1029.7 650.0 380.0

1692.9 900.2 793.0

2020.7 1292.1 729.0

2496.7 1685.6 811.0

2732.5 1829.8 903.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012


T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2012

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.3 2.2 7.2 6.1

13.4 3.5 7.2 6.2

13.6 3.9 7.3 6.3

13.7 4.4 7.4 6.3

13.9 4.9 7.5 6.5

14.1 4.8 7.5 6.5

14.2 4.9 7.6 6.6

14.4 5 7.7 6.7

14.6 4.8 7.8 6.8

14.8 5 7.9 6.9

15 5.1 8 7

15.2 5.3 8.1 7.1

15.4 5.4 8.2 7.2

15.6 5.4 8.3 7.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 1.1

11.5 2.3

11.6 2.7

11.7 3.1

11.8 3.5

11.9 3.2

12 3.3

12 3.3

12.2 3.1

12.3 3.3

12.4 3.5

12.5 3.6

12.6 3.7

12.7 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.5 30.5

35.8 30.7

36.1 30.8

36.4 31

36.9 31.2

37.2 31.3

37.5 31.5

37.8 31.6

38.2 31.8

38.5 32

38.9 32.1

39.2 32.3

39.7 32.5

40 32.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.7 2.5

43 2.4

43.3 2.8

43.6 3

44 2.9

44.3 2.9

44.6 3

45 3.1

45.3 3

45.6 3

46 3

46.3 3

46.7 3.1

47 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

166.9 -1.1

167.5 1.4

168 1.1

168.6 1.2

169.1 1.3

169.5 1.2

170 1.2

170.8 1.3

171.6 1.5

172.4 1.7

173.3 1.9

174.1 2

174.9 2

175.6 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -2.8

3.2 -2.6

3.2 1.2

3.2 1.5

3.2 1.9

3.2 1.7

3.2 1.7

3.3 2.1

3.3 1.9

3.3 2

3.3 1.9

3.3 1.9

3.3 1.6

3.3 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

163.8 -1.1

164.3 1.5

164.9 1.1

165.4 1.2

165.9 1.3

166.3 1.2

166.8 1.2

167.5 1.3

168.3 1.5

169.1 1.7

170 1.9

170.8 2

171.6 2

172.2 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -1.5

6 3.4

6.1 4.2

6.2 5.4

6.4 7.3

6.6 9.3

6.8 10.9

7 12.5

7.2 13.2

7.5 13.8

7.7 14.2

8 13.7

8.2 12.6

8.3 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -1.6

21.6 2

21.7 0.9

21.7 0.7

21.7 0.5

21.7 0.2

21.7 0

21.7 0

21.8 0.2

21.8 0.6

21.9 1.1

22 1.5

22.1 1.8

22.2 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.6

3.4 16.7 1.7

3.5 16.7 1.7

3.5 16.8 1.7

3.5 16.9 1.7

3.5 16.9 1.7

3.6 17 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -3.7

3.2 0.5

3.2 0.5

3.2 0.6

3.2 0.9

3.2 -0.1

3.2 0.4

3.2 1.5

3.3 2

3.3 2.5

3.3 2.4

3.3 2.4

3.3 2.4

3.4 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 -0.7

7.7 0.9

7.7 1.5

7.7 1.7

7.8 1.7

7.8 1.9

7.8 1.7

7.8 1.1

7.8 0.5

7.8 0.1

7.8 -0.1

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 2.3

19.6 5.2

19.9 4.8

20.1 5.4

20.3 4.7

20.5 4.6

20.9 5

21.2 5.3

21.5 6.1

21.9 6.6

22.3 6.7

22.6 6.5

22.8 5.9

23 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 0.6

20.5 2.4

20.6 1.8

20.7 1.3

20.8 1.6

20.9 1.6

20.9 1.4

21 1.7

21.1 1.3

21.2 1.6

21.3 1.8

21.4 1.6

21.5 2

21.7 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 0.3

16.4 1.5

16.5 1.6

16.5 1.1

16.5 0.9

16.4 0

16.4 -0.6

16.3 -1

16.3 -1

16.3 -0.8

16.3 -0.5

16.3 -0.4

16.2 -0.5

16.2 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 -1.5

9.1 0.4

9.2 0.7

9.2 1.1

9.2 1

9.2 1.1

9.3 1.1

9.3 0.7

9.3 0.5

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.1

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.2

9.3 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -2.3

1.9 -0.6

1.8 -2.4

1.8 -2.8

1.8 -2.7

1.8 -2.7

1.8 -2.6

1.8 -2.6

1.8 -2.5

1.8 -2.2

1.8 -1.9

1.8 -1.6

1.8 -1.4

1.7 -1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.2 -2.6

58.2 -0.1

58.2 -0.5

58.2 -0.2

58.1 -0.1

58.1 0

58.1 -0.2

58.1 -0.1

58.2 0.1

58.3 0.2

58.3 0.4

58.4 0.5

58.6 0.6

58.6 0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12682

12714

12764

12834

12895

12971

13058

13161

13256

13361

13463

13557

13650

13734

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

373.9 0.7

374.7 0.8

375.5 0.8

376.5 0.9

377.6 1

378.6 1

379.7 1.1

380.9 1.2

382.1 1.2

383.5 1.3

384.8 1.4

386.2 1.4

387.6 1.4

389 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

192.6 -0.4

193.3 1.1

194 1.8

194.8 1.6

195.4 1.5

196 1.4

196.7 1.4

197.3 1.3

197.8 1.2

198.4 1.2

198.9 1.1

199.2 1

199.5 0.8

199.7 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.6

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6

6

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.7

1505 788 717

1612 854 759

1753 939 814

1902 1020 881

1919 1103 816

1951 1244 706

2021 1358 664

2191 1463 728

2334 1558 776

2456 1658 798

2565 1739 826

2632 1787 844

2682 1811 871

2710 1819 891

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.2 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 35.4 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent. The average annual wage level will be 51.0. Population growth will average 1.6 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 110,856.54 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,294,005 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application) • An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2012. This amounts to 110,492 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application)

Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 employees • Pinellas County School District – 13,905 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 employees • Pasco County School District – 9,289 employees • Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 employees • University of South Florida – 8,353 employees • Tampa International Airport – 8,060 employees • Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 employees • Publix Food Centers – 5,823 employees

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

Employment growth is expected to be 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 7.5 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be The Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 9.8 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and the Education and Health Service sector with average annual growth rates of 5.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector will be the only sector to experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -1.9 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Tampa Bay exceeds fundraising goal for the Republican National Convention

• • The Tampa Bay Host Committee, the nonpartisan, non-profit host committee raised 55.9 million dollars, surpassing the 55 million dollar goal set before the convention.

• • The committee received a 5 million dollar donation from Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, and a 4.6 million dollar donation from St. Petersburg businessman Bill Edwards. Source: Tampa Bay Times, October 18, 2012

Tampa Electric customers pay less for electricity • Tampa Electric rates fell about $4 per 1,000 kilowatt hours of usage from $106.90 to $102.58.


T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

• The drop in fuel costs can be attributed to the decline of fuel costs for Tampa Electric.

• Due to the lower costs, Tampa Electric plans to save $69 million dollars during 2012. Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 5, 2012

Tampa Bay housing, transportation costs consumes the area’s low wages

• The metropolitan area of Tampa Bay received a D+ rating from Interest.com, a subgroup of Bankrate Inc, making the Tampa Bay area one of the least affordable major metropolitan areas.

• Median housing prices within the area dropped to $144,000, but low wages keep the median household income at $43,382, three percent less than the minimum required income to purchase the median area house. Source: Tampa Bay Times, October 21, 2012

Pinellas County sets record for tourist tax revenue • Pinellas County collected $28.7 million, $2.3 million more than the previous record of $26.4 million collected during 2008. • The tourism tax in Pinellas County is a five percent surcharge onto the bill of every accommodation rented out for less than six months. Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 15, 2012

Financial Firms may create more jobs in the Tampa Bay area

• Tampa and Hillsborough County may add 1,000 high paying jobs from the financial companies Depository Trust & Clearing Corp, Digital Risk, and a third unnamed company. • The additional jobs look to pay anywhere from $50,000 to $80,000.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 10, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

115000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0

95000.0 90000.0 85000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1150.0 1100.0

86

1.2

100000.0

1200.0

1050.0

1

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

80000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1250.0

0.8

105000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income