Condo Report | First Quarter 2018

3209 13th Street NW #301, Columbia Heights | $1,399,000

Condo Report A C O M P R E H E N S I V E A N A LY S I S O F T H E R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E M A R K E T I N T H E W A S H I N G T O N M E T R O P O L I TA N A R E A . F I R S T Q U A R T E R , 2 0 1 8

1801 16th Street NW #311 Dupont/Logan | $899,000

1516 Q Street NW #P-1 Logan Circle | $1,900,000

CONDO MARKET OVERVIEW The Washington condo market started out strong in 2018 with the number of new condo sales up from the fourth quarter of 2017. Sales prices continue to increase or remain steady in most submarkets over the past 12 months, but we are beginning to see a slowdown in sales pace for most submarkets.

The first quarter of 2018 brought a total of 135 new condominium contract sales in the District, and 496 for the 12 months ending in March 2018—a decrease of 2.4% from the previous year. The Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW, Central, and NoMa/H Street submarkets lead the District in sales activity in the last 12 months. In the close-in suburbs of Northern Virginia, Arlington and Alexandria both saw an increase in sales activity over the past year at 25.4% and 110%, respectively. In Bethesda, there were 26 contract sales in the first quarter and 53 sales for the year, a 26.2% increase over the year prior.

Average monthly sales pace in the District during the first quarter was 1.4 sales per project per month. The Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW submarket had the fastest sales pace in the District at 3.0 sales per project per month, which is lower than the year prior. The monthly sales pace decreased over the year for all District submarkets except NoMa/ H Street. Sales pace increased for Arlington, while it decreased for Alexandria and Bethesda.

Average effective same-store prices of new condominiums in the District increased over the 12 months ending in March 2018 with an average price of $800/SF in the first quarter of 2018. This is up 2.1% from a year ago. Prices in District submarkets increased most significantly in the Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW submarket at 14.4% over the year. A decline was recorded in Bethesda while prices increased in Alexandria and Arlington remained unchanged.

A total of 1,123 condominium units are currently marketing or under construction in the District, led by the Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW and NoMa/ H Street submarkets. In the close-in suburbs of Northern Virginia, there are 495 units actively marketing or under construction and 180 in Bethesda. Almost half of the 1,692 units in the District’s 36-month development pipeline are located in the Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW and Columbia Heights/ Shaw submarkets. Northern Virginia has 734 units planned over the next 36 months while Bethesda has 180 units planned.

All Washington area submarkets continue to be considered supply-constrained except for four: Upper Northwest, Upper Georgia Avenue, NoMa/ H Street, and Northeast. We have found over the years that a healthy ratio is between 24 and 30 months of supply—in that range, prices tend to move up gradually if the ratio of “fresh” product is above 65%. In contrast, the rule of thumb in the resale market is that 6 months of supply is considered a healthy ratio. The difference between the two ratios corresponds to the 18 to 24 months typically required to build a new condo project. Resale activity for condominiums increased over the past year in all Washington area submarkets except for NoMa/ H Street, which decreased by 11.6%. The average days on the market for the District was 34 days during the first quarter, an increase from last quarter’s average of 29 days. Market conditions were tightest in NoMa/ H Street at an average of 22 days while the average condo took 42 days to sell in Upper Northwest. Average days on the market ranged in the close-in suburbs from 39 days in Alexandria to 69 days in Bethesda.

Regardless of whether you are considering building, buying or selling a condo in the Washington area, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty continues to strive to provide the highest level of professional insight and guidance to our clients across all price points. We look forward to the opportunity to be of service.

Best personal regards, Mark C. Lowham CEO & Managing Partner

Naylor Court Lofts | 928 O Street NW Shaw| Priced $1.2-$2.7 million

Wardman Tower | 2660 Connecticut Avenue NW Woodley Park | Starting at $2,495,000

NEW CONDO UNITS Average Sale Price (per unit), First Quarter 2018 Upper NW

$3,476,800

Upper Georgia Ave.

$556,083

Central

$1,340,413 $790,813

Capitol Hill / Riverfront / SW

$571,223

NoMa / H Street

$610,720

Northeast

$405,000

River East

$673,562

Arlington

$794,250

Alexandria

$1,315,096

Bethesda

THE PIPELINE New Condo Units Currently Under Construction or Being Actively Marketed

Planned Condo Units, Over The Next 36 Months

488

435 393 332

315 292 252 178

177

117

180

81

56

40 Bethesda

Tysons

Alexandria

Arlington

River East

NoMa / H Street

Capitol Hill / Riverfront / SW

Shaw / Columbia Heights

Central

Upper NW

Bethesda

Tysons

Alexandria

Arlington

Upper Georgia Ave.

0

4 River East

Northeast

NoMa / H Street

Capitol Hill / Riverfront / SW

Shaw / Columbia Heights

Central

9 Upper Georgia Ave.

Upper NW

20

180

161

161

140

Northeast

152

241

Georgetown Brokerage 1206 30th Street NW Washington, DC 20007 Downtown Brokerage 1515 14th Street NW Washington, DC 20005

1506 14th Street NW Washington, DC 20005 ttrsir.com | +1 202 234 3344

McLean Brokerage 6723 Whittier Avenue McLean, VA 22101 Alexandria Brokerage 400 S Washington Street Alexandria, VA 22314 Arlington Brokerage 2300 Clarendon Blvd Arlington, VA 22201 Chevy Chase Brokerage 5454 Wisconsin Avenue Chevy Chase, MD 20815 Annapolis Brokerage 209 Main Street Annapolis, MD 21401

Spotlight: West End, Foggy Bottom & Georgetown The District’s West End, Foggy Bottom, and Georgetown neighborhoods are all located in the northwest quadrant of the city and line Rock Creek and the Potomac River. They are known for being both well-established and high-end in many regards, including housing, retail, and restaurants.

The West End has two new condo buildings, PRP’s 2501 M Street (67 units) and Eastbanc’s The WestLight (71 units), both of which are currently selling. Nearby is the future site of J Street Companies’ The Pacifica, a 9-unit building set to be finished by spring of 2019. In Georgetown’s 36-month pipeline is Hillside Residences, a 27-unit building at the site of the Key Bridge Exxon gas station. One of the projects in the longer-term planning stages is an 80-unit Four Seasons Hotel-affiliated condo project at the old West Heating Plant site in Georgetown. Because the West End, Georgetown, and Foggy Bottom are already very developed, their development pipelines are not as extensive as other DC neighborhoods like Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW and Columbia Heights/ Shaw.

Since these three neighborhoods have a large stock of older condo buildings, they tend to perform well with resales. Of the 809 condo resales in the entire Upper Northwest submarket over the last year, over a quarter were located in Georgetown alone. Additionally, over 35% of condo resales in the Central submarket were located in the West End/ Foggy Bottom neighborhoods.

Source: Delta associates. Data deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

1045 31st Street NW #506 Georgetown | $1,995,000

2501 M Street NW #608 West End | $995,000