Top Ten Tipping Points On Climate Change

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S T N I O P G N I P P I TOP TEN T E G N A H C E T A M I ON CL

T H E C L I M AT E I N S T I T U T E

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TOP TEN TIPPING POINTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AN ANALYSIS OF HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRENDS OF CLIMATE CHANGE HAVE SHIFTED AND WHY AUSTRALIA IS ADRIFT

“We are entering the Oh Shit era of global warming.”

Rolling Stone Magazine (US), 3 November, 2005

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TIPPING OVER THE EDGE: CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL MOMENTUM AND AUSTRALIA’S INERTIA

Over the last 12 to 18 months, action on climate change around the world is moving at a new velocity across the spectrum of climate science, politics, technology and community attitudes.

This report by The Climate Institute identifies ten factors whose scope and reach are mobilising global responses to climate change. Each of these factors has accumulated enough momentum in its own right to create a global tipping point on greenhouse action.

The critical question is whether Australia will be left behind — politically and economically.

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THE TOP TEN TIPPING POINTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE ARE SCIENCE: The evidence is clear,

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the impacts are growing and there are signals that extremes are increasing in scale and frequency.

According to leading scientists, climate change is the greatest environmental challenge confronting the world. There is no longer any question that the problem of human-made climate change is intensifying. Our planet is heating up faster than at any time in recorded history, while concentrations of the key greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, in our atmosphere have been measured at levels higher than at any time over the last 650,000 years. Recent evidence has many scientists stating that we have underestimated the scale and speed of climate change impacts. There are signals that climate extremes are increasing in scale and frequency. The impacts are likely to be more serious than previously thought.

The scientific consensus is that it is necessary to make cuts of at least 60% in emissions by 2050 in order to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts.

THE USA: A significant shift has

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occurred; despite an obstructionist Bush White House, the US is taking concerted action on climate change.

While the Australian position has been aligned with that of President Bush and his anti-Kyoto stance, the Canberra radar has failed to notice the enormous

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number of progressive steps being taken by various US national, state and city leaders who are taking a prominent role in the carbon-constrained global market. Seven US states, 227 cities and a number of influential members of Congress, both Republican and Democrat, are circumventing the Bush White House’s intransigent position. These congressmen, governors and mayors are committing their jurisdictions to emission reduction targets, carbon trading and renewable energy development. Like a super tanker changing course, seemingly small initial movements are imperceptible but alter the destination markedly. As the US moves forward on climate, it leaves Australia politically and economically isolated as the least-prepared developed country in the world on this issue.

BUSINESS: The “watch and wait”

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approach is over; global business is driving the establishment of a global economy that controls carbon.

Companies around the world are using climate change as a strategic business driver across not only emissions reductions, but also the development of new markets, technologies and other areas of investment. The prevailing view that reducing greenhouse gases harms economies and profits is being superseded by significant corporate activity to exploit the upsides of climate change. Primary producers, manufacturers, lenders, insurers, consultants and investment analysts are integrating

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greenhouse gas exposure into commercial decision making. Australian businesses are laggards compared to their counterparts in Europe, Japan and North America. The sheer size of the new carbonconstrained markets — which includes China — is ignored at Australia’s economic peril.

MEDIA: A global spike in the quantity and quality of media coverage has brought climate change to the front of public awareness.

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Once the subject of scientific journals alone, last year, The New York Times and Washington Post alone ran nearly 600 stories on climate change. In 2006, global warming adorned the covers of Time and the programs of the BBC, ABC (US), CNN and HBO. The tenor of the articles shifted from scientific queries to calls for action. The issue, previously treated as a minor environmental topic like recycling, is now a multifaceted current affairs issue with news, foreign policy, science, business and popular culture angles. Not surprisingly, public awareness of the issue has followed in the wake of this global media spike.

ENERGY SECURITY AND OIL PRICES: Oil and

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gas overdependence has created new impetus to reduce fossil fuel consumption. This widespread concern has ushered in a new group of advocates for energy security to become proponents for climate change action.

One of the most powerful tipping points around climate change has been the need to tackle global energy insecurity and increasing oil prices. The oil market is fuelled by the fear of terrorism, instability in some exporting countries, a nationalist backlash, fears of a scramble for supplies, geopolitical rivalries,

and countries’ fundamental need for energy to power their economic growth. With oil hitting record highs of US$75 a barrel, off-the-shelf renewable energy sources are moving centre stage for political reasons that have little to do with the environment. The energy crisis is stimulating the interest level and investment credits in clean energy sources well beyond the traditional climate change drivers.

INTERNATIONAL POLICY: Kyoto, the G8 and other

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international forums are establishing tougher parameters for global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change.

International diplomacy on climate change has a heightened sense of urgency and activity. The Kyoto Protocol signed by 163 countries entered into force in 2005 and the subsequent meeting in Montreal, Canada launched fresh global action on a number of important levels, including the adoption of the rulebook setting the framework for trading and potential future action by developing countries. The most recent meeting in Germany in May 2006 set an ambitious agenda towards “science-based emissions reduction targets” on the part of industrialised countries within the next few years. Often cited by the US and Australia as a major Kyoto failure, action by and within the developing world is gathering pace. To date the Protocol has created US$2.7 billion (AU$3.6 billion) of greenhouse friendly investment in the developing world, especially China, Brazil and Mexico. Over 750 projects are underway, and the forecast investment by 2012 in developing countries is US100 billion (AU$133 billion). Since 2005, climate change has also become a top priority for the G8 and the UK’s Presidency of the EU.

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CARBON PROFITS:

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International carbon trading markets have exploded, already worth billions and projected to be one of the largest commodity markets in the world.

The global carbon market, which combines cutting emissions with making money, has exploded in the last two years, largely driven by the Kyoto Protocol and the introduction of the European Union Emissions Trading scheme. Last year, the global carbon market was worth US$10 billion (AU$13.3 billion) with predictions for 2006 of US$25-30 billion (AU$33-40 billion). Carbon markets are destined to be one of the world’s biggest commodity markets. Currently Australia has little access to or experience of this burgeoning market.

CLEAN ENERGY: Formerly a

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boutique player in the energy arena, renewable energy is mainstream and booming, with US$56 billion (AU$74 billion) of business world-wide in 2005.

Clean energy technologies — wind, solar, biofuels, etc. — have come of age. In 2005 the global market was US$56 billion (AU$74 billion). Clean energy is now a major part of power systems throughout the world. Advanced generations of clean energy technologies continue to improve and costs are declining with mass production and deployment.

With double digit growth, clean energy is one of the hottest commercial sectors in the world. The ‘alternatives’ tag is now an anachronism.

POP CULTURE: Too

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complicated, too frightening, too “green”? No more. Climate change is now part of popular culture, be it TV, movies or celebrity champions.

When Vanity Fair, Rolling Stone and moviemakers jump on the climate change bandwagon, it is safe to say the issue is thoroughly mainstream. Al Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth, has played a critical role in raising the issue in the US and internationally, with launches at Sundance and Cannes making global headlines. International celebrities are linking their names and their efforts to this critical issue.

MORAL ISSUE: Once the purview of environmentalists and scientists, climate change has been embraced as a moral issue by churches, faiths and spiritual leaders.

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Given the severity of the impacts of climate change, church and moral leaders have recently taken up positions on the issue calling for global leadership, international cooperation and swift action to protect planet Earth and to spare those most likely to feel the repercussions, the poor and underprivileged.

Taken together, these ten factors have created a global tipping point for concerted greenhouse action. The question is how will Australia respond?

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As the world wakes up to the urgency of climate change, Australia is asleep at the wheel.

AUSTRALIA’S PLACE IN THE WORLD While the world moves forward on climate change with determination, ingenuity and positive action, Australia is, at best, hesitant, at worst, recalcitrant.

It remains a back seat passenger in the international effort to cut greenhouse gases while domestic emissions climb. Despite the existence of various Government greenhouse programs, Australia has no plan or policy to halt the trend of rising emissions, or even to stabilise them. Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions are expected to grow to 22% above 1990 levels by 20201. Emissions primarily from electricity generation are expected to grow by 46% from 1990 to 2010 and 70% by 2020, and transport emissions by 53% to 2010 and 78% by 2020.

markets are a reality yet Australia has no carbon price. Clean energy technologies are the next big thing yet Australia’s renewable sector has been virtually killed off and is moving backwards. Global corporations are capturing economic opportunities, yet here the debate is mired in the notion that reducing emissions will be too painful and expensive. The USA’s position has shifted but Australia’s has not. In the realm of global politics, the debate on climate change is “hot” yet here it is still distinctly unfashionable. Worldwide, countries are finding ingenious ways to make dramatic emissions cuts, while Australia makes little concerted effort and emissions rise.

Under current policies, the only direction for Australia's greenhouse gas emissions is upwards. A shift to nuclear power would have no impact on emissions profiles to 2020 because it would take that long to get a nuclear power plant up and running.

Despite the fact that the climate change issue has changed beyond all recognition in the last 12 to 18 months, these tipping points seem to be going largely unnoticed in Australia. There is little sense of urgency or forward direction on the issue in the national debate, across the political spectrum, in the business sector and in the media.

The science is more urgent, yet there remains a high degree of denial in Australia. Global carbon

As the world wakes up to the urgency of climate change, Australia is asleep at the wheel.

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SCIENCE

“Climate change is more remote than terror but a more profound threat to the future of [our] children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren…”

Former US President Bill Clinton, 25 May 2006

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THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR, THE IMPACTS ARE GROWING AND THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT EXTREMES ARE INCREASING IN SCALE AND FREQUENCY.

According to leading scientists, climate change is the greatest environmental challenge confronting the world. There is no longer any question that the problem of human-made climate change is intensifying. Our planet is heating up faster than at any time in recorded history, while concentrations of the key greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, in our atmosphere have been measured at levels higher than at any time over the last 650,000 years2. Recent evidence has many scientists stating that we have underestimated the scale and speed of climate change impacts. There are signals that climate extremes are increasing in scale and frequency. The impacts are likely to be more serious than previously thought.

The scientific consensus is that it is necessary to make cuts of at least 60% in emissions by 2050 in order to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts.

New international climate change scientific and impacts research include: • HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD — 2005 was the world’s hottest year since instrumental records began in 1861. The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1994. Five of the six warmest years have occurred in the past five years3.

• C02 LEVELS SOAR… — During 2005, global carbon dioxide levels increased from an average 376.8 parts per million in 2004 to 378.9 parts per million, the highest levels in tens of thousands of years. The pre-industrial carbon dioxide level was about 278 parts per million4.

• …ALONG WITH RATES OF GROWTH — Recent CSIRO monitoring shows that not only are carbon dioxide levels at their highest, but the rate of growth is also increasing, at near record rates in 20055.

• FEEDBACK EFFECT INCREASES TEMPERATURES — New climate science in Europe and the US indicates

that increased temperatures due to global warming will in turn spur greater greenhouse gas emissions when stored carbon dioxide in the oceans and soil is released, meaning the Earth could get hotter faster than climate models currently predict. The study found that global temperatures could rise by 1.6 to 6°C rather than the 1.5 to 4.5 degrees commonly thought.

The European team estimated that global warming in the next century might be 15% to 78% higher than International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science estimates that have not taken the feedback mechanism of stored carbon dioxide into account6,7.

• WORST STORMS IN HISTORY — More intensive tropical cyclones are a predicted impact of climate change. In 2005 the hurricane season in North America was the most intense and active in recorded history. There were 27 named storms, surpassing the previous record of 21.

Two of the storms that struck the U.S. mainland, Katrina and Wilma, were extraordinary in the amount of casualties and damage, US$45 billion

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SCIENCE

(AU$60 billion), they caused. Eight of the 11 most expensive disasters in history, in terms of insured losses, have occurred along the US Gulf Coast in the past four years8,9.

• ICECAPS AND GLACIERS MELTING — Arctic ice has shrunk by 8.5% per decade since 197810.

Antarctica’s ice sheet decreased by an estimated 152 cubic kilometres of ice annually between April 2002 and August 2005. A cubic kilometre is one trillion litres of water11.

• SEA LEVELS RISING —The world’s oceans are rising an average of two millimetres a year, double the rate of 150 years ago according to Rutgers University research based on NASA data12.

Over the next century, the world’s oceans could rise by 3 feet (0.9 metres), and by 13-20 feet (3.96 to 5.16 metres) over the coming centuries. This could occur due to melting ice in Greenland and Western Antarctica, according to recent computer models of climate and ice13.

“Climate change is the world’s greatest environmental challenge.

The Rt Hon Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister in his forward to “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change”, Cambridge, February 2005

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AUSTRALIAN SCIENCE AND IMPACTS THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS PROJECTED IMPACTS IN AUSTRALIA MATCHES INTERNATIONAL TRENDS, AND INCLUDE EFFECTS OF NATIONAL CONCERN, SUCH AS CHANGES IN BUSHFIRE PATTERNS, RAINFALL, DROUGHT, AND SNOW (TOURISM). NEW AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH INCLUDES: AUSTRALIA HOTTING UP — In Australia, 2005 was also the hottest year on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Australia’s annual mean temperature for 2005 was 1.09°C above the standard 1961 to 1990 average, making it the warmest year since reliable, widespread temperature observations became available in 1910. Australia has warmed by 0.9°C since 1910, with most of the warming occurring since 1950. In addition to hot temperatures, the early months of 2005 were also very dry over much of Australia.

The January-May period was the second driest on record. Preliminary data indicates that the average total rainfall throughout Australia for 2005 was about 399 mm, compared with a longterm average of 472mm17.

FURTHER STRESS ON WATER SUPPLIES — CSIRO research projects that Winter-Spring rainfall will decrease over the southern half of Australia and that reductions in water supply appear more likely there than in the north of the country due to rainfall decreases and greater competition for water between human and natural uses. Evaporation is set to increase, such that moisture balance (rainfall minus evaporation) is projected to decrease across most of Australia.

Climate Change has “most likely” contributed to part of the rainfall decline in south-west Western Australia since the 1960s18.

LOSS OF ARABLE FARMLAND — Research released in May and June 2006 suggests that climate change could drastically shrink the amount of viable farm land in Australia over the next 65 years causing a southerly shift of arable land that could have a massive impact on the mix

of farming in each state, particularly in South Australia19. A Queensland study suggests that two major grain-growing areas — Mallee and the northern Eyre Peninsula — could see drops in production of 24% and 19% respectively and that losses to the Australia’s wheat industry could be as great as AU$1 billion a year within 30 years20.

FIRES INCREASING — Climate change is projected to lead to an increase in bushfire activity in inland south-east Australia, an area expected to become hotter and drier. Days where the Forest Fire Danger Index rating is either Very High or Extreme are projected to increase by 4% to 25% by 2020 and by 15% to 70% by 205021.

VANISHING SNOW — Australia’s alpine systems are particularly susceptible to climate change. One study estimated an 18-66% reduction in the total area of snow cover by 2030 and a 39-96% reduction by 2070. In addition to the obvious impacts on winter tourism, the changes to alpine systems will impact on many plant and animal species, some of which are listed as threatened, and only found in the small Australian alpine region22.

Studies of Heard Island, located in the Southern Ocean, about 4,000 kilometres south west of mainland Australia, have shown that from 1947 to 1988, the island’s glaciers decreased by 11% in area, with half the loss occurring in the 1980s when summer temperatures were 1.7°C higher on average than the 1946-54 average. A spring 2000 visit to the island found that key glaciers had retreated even further since then23.

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SCIENCE

• THE 2 DEGREE GLOBAL THRESHOLD — The scientific assessment for the G8 meeting in 2005, “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (ADCC)”14, summarized finding by the world’s top scientists that: • In the absence of urgent and strenuous mitigation actions in the next 20 years, global temperatures will increase by between 0.5 and 2°C by 2050.

• An increase of about 1°C is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching.

• An increase of 1.5°C may cross a threshold that triggers melting of the Greenland ice cap.

• Above 3°C, serious risk of large scale, irreversible system disruption, such as reversal of the land carbon sink and possible destabilisation of the Antarctic ice sheets.

• UNPRECEDENTED WARMING — Analysis of tree rings, ice cores, fossils, and other “proxy climate records” by England’s University of East Anglia has found that the present warming phase has lasted longer and affected a broader area in the Northern Hemisphere than any other such period in the last 1,200 years15.

“The 2005 [Australian temperature] record is yet another sign that our climate is changing.”

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Meteorologist Mike Coughlan, 2006

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• DISEASES FOLLOW — A study led by the Center for Health and the Global Environment at the Harvard Medical School in late 2005 showed that climate change will significantly affect the health of humans and ecosystems and these impacts will have economic consequences. The study shows that warming and extreme weather affect the breeding and range of disease vectors such as mosquitoes responsible for malaria, and

West Nile virus as well as levels of specific pollen responsible for the rising incidence of asthma. Lyme disease, the most widespread vector-borne disease, is currently increasing in North America as winters warm and ticks proliferate and the study indicates that the area suitable for tick habitat will increase by 213% by 208016.

“We’ve probably underestimated the problem.”

US Berkeley ecologist John Harte, May 2006

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2 The well-known fact that the US has not signed the Kyoto Protocol does not mean that country is not taking action on climate change. It is, and increasingly so. A paradox of the current, sceptical attitude of the Bush Administration is that it has stimulated a range of bold steps being taken nationally, moving the US towards a prominent role in today’s carbonconstrained global market. As the US moves forward on climate, it leaves Australia politically and economically adrift — a shift that has seemingly not been picked up by the Canberra radar. The US seems to be asking Australia, the only other major developing country that has not ratified Kyoto, to “do as I say, not as I do,” leaving us politically and economically isolated as the least-prepared developed country in the world on this issue.

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THE USA

Leading US climate initiatives include: • CONGRESS PUSHES FOR MANDATORY EMISSIONS CAP AND CARBON TRADING AND OTHER INITIATIVES • On 10 May 2006, the US House of Representatives Appropriations Committee went on record in support of addressing global warming through a mandatory cap on U.S. emissions. The Republican-led panel accepted a non-binding climate change amendment that endorses capping greenhouse gas emissions as long as the approach does not harm the U.S. economy and has the buy-in of international trading partners. The amendment is part of the fiscal year 2007 spending bill currently under development24.

• In November 2005, just prior to the Montreal meeting of the Kyoto Protocol, the leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senators Lugar (Rep., Indiana) and Biden (Dem., Delaware), introduced a resolution calling for US participation in negotiations under the UNFCCC to establish mitigation commitments for all major greenhouse gasemitting countries. A Senate voice vote is pending25.

• Leaders of the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Senators Domenici (Rep., New Mexico) and Bingaman (Dem., New Mexico), pledged last year to pursue legislation that would eventually lead to mandatory greenhouse gas emission cut. In February of this year they released a report on a national program to achieve this26.

• In 2003 and 2005, the Climate Stewardship Act was proposed in the US Senate by Senators McCain (Rep., Arizona) and Lieberman

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A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT HAS OCCURRED. DESPITE AN OBSTRUCTIONIST BUSH WHITE HOUSE, THE US IS TAKING CONCERTED ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE.

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“The debate is over. The science is in.

The time to act is now. Global warming is a serious issue facing the world and California has taken an historic step...”

California Governor Schwarzenegger launching his global warming initiative to cut state emission by 80% by 2050, June 2005

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THE USA

“Joe [Leiberman] and I will make the US senate keep on voting and voting and voting and voting.”

Republican Senator John McCain, on legislation for mandatory carbon dioxide controls, April 2006

(Dem., Connecticut) to cut emissions by introducing a mandatory emissions trading system. Senator Feinstein (Dem., California) is planning to introduce a similar bill that would cap emissions and introduce emissions trading, as Representatives Gilchrest and Oliver have also done in the US Congress27,28.

• US STATES AND CITIES TAKE ACTION • In December 2005, the governors of seven north-east states including New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey established the first mandatory cap-and-trade program to control emissions in the US. Beginning in 2009, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) aims to stabilise power plant emissions in the region at current levels through 2015 and reduce emissions by 10% from current levels by 2019. The RGGI has created a model that other groups of states are currently considering29.

• In June 2005, California Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger signed an executive order (S-3-05) setting ambitious targets to reduce the state’s greenhouse emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 through a range of initiatives including setting renewable energy

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targets and introducing caps on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. To meet the targets, Governor Schwarzenegger directed the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency to set up and lead a Climate Action Team, made up of representatives from various state agencies to implement global warming emission reduction programs and report on the progress toward meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets30.

• The mayors of some 238 US cities have pledged to cut emissions of greenhouse gases through the Seattle-led U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, which calls for cities to meet or beat the US emissions reduction target in the Kyoto Protocol, a 7% reduction below 1990 levels by 2012. These reduction targets are being met through a range of actions including adopting and encouraging renewable and efficient energy sources, increasing automobile efficiency and improving public transport. Cities taking part report not only significant emissions reductions but cost savings as well. The number of cities signing onto the agreement, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, is growing weekly31.

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“He said to me he was virtually certain that the first action of the next president of the United States, be it Republican or Democrat, would be to initiate urgent action on climate change.”

Westpac CEO David Morgan referring to a conversation with head of the General Electric, Jeff Immelt, April 2006

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BUSINESS

GENERALELECTR CWALMARTSHELL EXELONDUKEENE “There’s a sea change underway in American RGYTESCOVODAFO business. What’s different in business audiences in the past year or so is a new and widespread NEABNAMROSHEL receptivity, a keen awareness, an eagerness on the LBOEINGBPDUPO part of large numbers to find out how they can take a leadership position. And a recognition, too, NTIBMINTELTOYO that there are profits to be made.”

TABAXTERFORDM OTORCOMPANYIN TERFACEINTERNA TIONALPAPERMA NITOBAHYDROMO TOROLATUFTSUN VERSITYALCANBO MBARDIERPOWER CORPMICROSOFT Former US Vice President Al Gore, 2006

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THE “WATCH AND WAIT” APPROACH IS OVER AND GLOBAL BUSINESS IS DRIVING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A CARBON CONSTRAINED GLOBAL ECONOMY.

RI L E O L O O M N A A O NI O R T

The uniquely Australian view that reducing greenhouse gases harms economies and corporate profits is being blown out of the water by significant corporate activity to exploit the upsides of climate change.

Companies around the world are using climate change as a strategic business driver across not only emissions reductions, but also the development of new markets, technologies and areas of investment. Previously, corporate leadership on climate change has come from Europe and Japan. Now it is global and coming from the US and developing countries as well.

From emissions trading and investment in clean energy, energy efficiency and low carbon technologies, to mitigating risk and corporate citizenship, many businesses see the impacts of climate change as monumental to defining the future of economic markets. Carbon has a price, and it is profitable. The sheer size of the new carbon-constrained market — which includes China — makes it a market force to be reckoned with.

Internationally, major business efforts related to climate change, emissions trading or reductions, new technologies and other related areas include: • MAJOR US COMPANIES SAY BRING ON THE REGULATION — In April 2006 a US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee panel were surprised to hear the heads of high-powered energy, utility and retail companies including General Electric, Wal-Mart, Shell, Exelon and Duke Energy, say they would welcome or accept mandatory caps on their greenhouse gas emissions32.

• UK COMPANIES DEMAND HIGHER EMISSIONS CURBS, STRONGER GOVERNMENT ACTION — CEOs from 13 leading UK companies including Tesco, Vodafone, ABN Amro and Shell called on Prime Minister Tony Blair in June 2006 to place stronger curbs on greenhouse gas emissions saying it would “encourage innovation” and be “good for business”33. Collectively, the companies offered to work with the government to strengthen emissions reductions and encourage technical innovation to ensure the UK remains a competitive leader in the low-carbon market.

• RETAIL GIANT TAKES A BIG STEP — In October 2005, the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart, announced a $500 million climate change commitment including initiatives to: • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% in seven years.

• Increase truck fleet fuel efficiency by 25% in three years and double it in ten.

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BUSINESS

“The greatest risk facing insurers in the next four years and beyond is climate change.”

Insurance Australia Group CEO Mike Hawker, May 2006.

• Develop a store that is 25% more energyefficient within four years.

• Pressure its worldwide network of suppliers to follow its lead.

• Operate on 100% renewable energy.

With $312.4 billion in annual sales and more than 6,400 stores and facilities worldwide, Wal-Mart’s climate change commitment is of international business significance34,35.

• IMAGINING ECO — In May 2005, General Electric, one of the world’s biggest companies with revenues of US $152 billion in 2004, announced “Ecomagination,” a major new business driver expected to double revenues from cleaner technologies to US$20 billion by 2010. This initiative will see GE double its research and development in eco-friendly technologies to US$1.5 billion by 2010, reduce company-wide emissions by 1% and improve energy efficiency by 30% by 2012. In May

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2006, the company reported revenues of US$10.1 billion from its energy efficient and environmentally advanced products and services, up from US$6.2 billion in 2004, with orders nearly doubling to US$17 billion. In 2005, the company’s wind energy business was worth US$2 billion, estimated to rapidly reach US$4 billion. In five years, GE expects that alternative energies will comprise more than 25% of all energy equipment revenue36.

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“We think green means green.

This is a time period where environmental improvement is going to lead toward profitability. This is not a hobby to make people feel good.”

General Electric’s CEO Jeff Immelt, 2005

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BUSINESS

AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS IS SLOW TO ACT Australian businesses have been laggards in response to climate change compared to their peers in Europe, North America and even some developing countries. And while a lack of a clear national policy greatly contributes to this inaction, recent economic analysis by some Australian companies proves that it is cheaper, faster and perfectly feasible for Australia to make deep cuts in greenhouse gases even with today’s technologies. This shatters the long held national myth that cutting greenhouse gases has a negative economic impact.

In April 2006, The Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change published its report42, The Business Case for Early Action, which included the results of economic modelling showing a clear economic advantage from taking early action to address climate change. The Group, made up of CEOs from BP Australia, Insurance Australia Group, Origin Energy, Swiss Re, Visy Industries and Westpac, raised concern that many Australian industries, including major export earners like agriculture and tourism, may be seriously impacted by delaying action on climate change. The group called for significant reduction in greenhouse gases and a carbon pricing mechanism. Key findings of the group include: • A 60% cut in greenhouse gas emissions is possible while maintaining strong economic growth; • Economic impact by 2020 under early action would be modest; • Delayed action for just nine years has a significant negative impact. The economic costs are substantially greater under a delayed scenario would result in lower real GDP growth by an average of .02% p.a. through to 2050 and would concentrate any disruptive shocks to a shorter period; • An additional 3.5 million jobs will be created in the economy under the early action scenario between 2013 and 2050, equating to 250,000 more jobs than under a delayed action scenario; and • Electricity price impacts are lower under early action than delayed action. This is due to early investment in a wide range low and zero carbon technologies that makes them cheaper over time. With

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delayed action, electricity prices would be three times higher.

The recent report Options for moving to a lower emission future43, initiated by AGL, Frontier Economics and WWF Australia, concluded that reducing greenhouse emissions is affordable and achievable in Australia. Their findings suggest that “the cost to Australian society of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector could be as little as between AU$0.43 and $2 per week per person to achieve a 40% emissions reduction.”

The study showed that: • A 40% reduction from current emission levels (7% reduction from 1990 levels) can be achieved in the electricity sector by 2030.

• This result can be achieved with today’s electricity generation technology and knowledge about energy efficiency.

• Growing industrial and household electricity demand can still be met.

• The development of new low and zero emission technologies could further reduce costs.

One notable exception to the sluggish response of Australian business is former research director of Pacific Solar, Zhengrong Shi, who departed Australia along with many of Australia’s most innovative solar researchers, to launch Suntech Power Holdings in China, one of the country’s most successful renewable energy companies. Shi is now reported to be worth US$2.2 billion (AU$2.9 billion) and recently made the Forbes billionaires list (May 2006)44.

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• STAYING IN THE EMISSIONS TRADING GAME — To prepare for an inevitable limit on greenhouse gas emissions, over 40 US and Canadian companies and organisations, including Baxter, Ford Motor Company, Interface, International Paper, Manitoba Hydro, Motorola and Tufts University, have joined the Chicago Climate Exchange, a voluntary but legally-binding program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The scheme has been operating since 2003 to enable participants to prepare for an emissions trading future. By the end of 2006, participants are expected to have reduced emissions by 4%.

In April 2006 over 1 million tonnes of CO2 permits were traded through the Chicago Exchange, and in the first two weeks of May 2006, over 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 permits were traded. (See Carbon Trading section below for recent international Baxter trade.37,38) • INVESTING IN GREEN — A group of 215 of some of the largest global institutional investors with more that US$31trillion (AU$41trillion) in assets have joined together as the London-based

Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) to raise awareness of carbon risk and liability. CDP provides a secretariat for the world’s largest institutional investor collaboration on the business implications of climate change and represents an efficient process whereby many institutional investors collectively sign a single global request for disclosure of information on Greenhouse Gas Emissions. In February this year the CDP expanded its outreach from the FT500 largest companies in the world to more than 1900 companies overall. By May, more than 350 had responded and all information is publicly available on the CDP website39.

• GATES LEADS JUMP TO BIO-FUELS — Microsoft magnate Bill Gates jumped into the bio-fuels market in April this year when he purchased US$84 million (AU$112 million), a 25.5% stake in common stock shares of Pacific Ethanol Inc., makers of corn-based fuel. While not a major investment for Gates, it does indicate the popularity of non-fossil fuel options and efforts to look beyond mainstream energy sources40,41.

“There’s a climate underworld out there.”

US industry executive at a meeting of 300 Senate Energy Committee on climate change, referring to industry’s latent desire for mandatory caps on carbon dioxide, April 2006

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4 In the last year, and particularly around the Montreal Kyoto meeting — the first Kyoto meeting held in North America — global media coverage of climate change far exceeded previous years and, more importantly, included far greater in-depth, explanatory and comprehensive articles across all aspects of the issue.

In the US, nearly 600 stories ran on the issue in The New York Times and Washington Post in 2005 alone. This coverage has helped tip the issue to a new level of public awareness, particularly in the US, where it lagged behind other developed nations.

Given that the US media is syndicated and distributed globally and is the most widely available free on-line, its penetration internationally far outweighs other national media.

As a result, according to a Time /ABC poll of Americans in 2006, 85% of those polled believe the Earth is getting warmer, up from 80% in 1998, and 49% see the issue of global warming as very/extremely important, up from 31% in 1998. Globally, a 2006 Angus Reid Global Scan poll covering 30 countries found that 65% of those polled thought that global warming is a very serious problem while 25% thought it was a somewhat serious problem.

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MEDIA

Below is a sample of the huge number of US and international media stories, special reports and television programs about climate change within the last year: • Time magazine cover story “Be Worried. Be Very Worried. Climate change isn’t some vague future problem — it’s already damaging the planet at an alarming pace.” Global Warming Special Report, 3 April 2006. In this issue, Time devoted an unprecedented 29 pages to the issue of climate change along with six full-page ads from organizations ranging from Mercedes-Benz to the World Wildlife Fund. Stories include a photo essay showing polar bears in search of solid ice, drought in Ethiopia and rising waters in India; a round up of the most recent global warming science and its causes; expected heath impacts internationally; leaders and “crusaders”; and steps being taken in India and China45.

• Climate Chaos, the BBC’s special season of programmes about climate change began airing in May 2006 with programmes by and about top scientists on the issue. It examines five global warming disaster scenarios in major cities including London and a Panorama program investigating the Bush Administration’s alleged campaign of disinformation around global warming. The most important part of the season was a two-part personal journey through climate change impacts on biodiversity by renowned naturalist and broadcaster David Attenborough. Attenborough’s coming out on the issue of climate change caused a UK media stir and is a tipping point in itself as he has long been known as a sceptic on the issue.

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A GLOBAL SPIKE IN THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF MEDIA COVERAGE HAS BROUGHT CLIMATE CHANGE TO THE FRONT OF PUBLIC AWARENESS.

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MEDIA

warming, one on environmental impacts in the Arctic and the other about leading US scientists who say the Bush Administration is pressuring them not to report their climate-change related findings48.

• In 2006 and 2005, CNN aired two climate change special reports, Changing Earth and CNN Presents covering the science, impacts and solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions49.

• A one-hour documentary on the HBO cable network called Too Hot Not to Handle, on how “the mass consumption of fossil fuels, especially in America, has contributed to a dangerous warming of the Earth that has adversely impacted the way we live”50.

• An episode of the US Public Broadcasting Service’s (PBS) NOVA program called Dimming The Sun exposed new evidence that the sunlight reaching Earth has been growing dimmer due to air pollution, thus masking the full impact of global warming, potentially with devastating environmental consequences51.

• In May 2006, The New York Times featured a 12-page special section called The Business of Green on the latest environmentally conscious business practices, including companies taking up emissions credit trading, financial incentives for wind power and the rise of natural gas vehicles46.

• Extensive coverage on major US network ABCTV with two stories in two days presenting the most recent scientific and impacts studies and the conspiracy of science sceptics and their funding from organizations such as the American Petroleum Institute47.

• Two US 60 Minutes programs related to global

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“How could I look my grandchildren in the eye and say I knew about this and I did nothing?”

The BBC’s David Attenborough discussing his “Are We Changing Planet Earth?” programme, May 2006

MEDIA IN AUSTRALIA

• Even The New Yorker’s Talk of the Town column used the launch of Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth (see Pop Culture section), to discuss the issue of climate change in the magazine’s 24 April 2006 issue52.

There is a gradual rise in the coverage on climate change in Australia, but the media’s reporting to date has been limited, with coverage focusing on narrow frames of politics and conflict, rather than the whole complex issue.

This type of coverage suggests the media is not yet engaged on the issue in a comprehensive way. Further, the focus on politics and conflict, and the disproportionate level of reporting on science scepticism, has the inevitable effect of reinforcing the community’s confusion and distance from climate change, in spite of some of the more noticeable impacts taking place within and just beyond the country’s borders.

Important media coverage to date includes: • In February 2006, the ABC’s Four Corners programme exposed pressure placed on government scientists not to speak out on climate change due to a powerful group of industry lobbyists who have hijacked greenhouse policy. This was a tipping point in linking government action to industry lobbying53.

• The launch of Tim Flannery’s book, The Weather Makers received significant national and international media attention, winning book of the year at the NSW Premier’s Literary Awards and receiving endorsement from the likes of UK Prime Minister Tony Blair54.

• The Feb/March 2006 issue of The Diplomat led with a cover story entitled The Climate Bomb including stories about the risk of climate change being greater than terrorism and the idea of a new Manhattan Project approach to solving the climate change crisis55.

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5

ENERGY SECURITY AND OIL PRICES

“America is addicted to oil” George W. Bush, US President, State of the Union address, January 2006

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OIL AND GAS OVERDEPENDENCE HAVE CREATED NEW IMPETUS TO REDUCE FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION. THIS WIDESPREAD CONCERN HAS USHERED IN A NEW GROUP OF ADVOCATES FOR ENERGY SECURITY TO BECOME PROPONENTS FOR ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE.

After decades of relatively stable and secure supplies and prices, the world has entered an era of energy insecurity. The price of oil and gas has tripled since 2001.

And, since the last three global recessions were caused by oil price rises, the current price increase is causing considerable economic and political concern around the world.

In April 2006 oil prices hit record highs of US$75 a barrel (AU$100). Global oil expert Daniel Yergin56 describes the oil market as “fuelled by the fear of terrorism, instability in some exporting countries, a nationalist backlash, fears of a scramble for supplies, geopolitical rivalries, and countries’ fundamental need for energy to power their economic growth.” The energy crisis is stimulating the interest level and investment in clean energy sources beyond the traditional climate change drivers.

The fundamentals of oil price rises are: • Growing demand around the world, particularly from developing countries. China is now the world’s second largest oil consumer; • Little current spare capacity — the world is using every drop of the daily supply of 85 million barrels of oil; • Changing supply pattern towards fewer regions that are geo-politically volatile such as Russia, Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela. US Senator Richard Lugar calls this the “tide of petroauthoritarianism”57; • Geo-political instability in the Middle East, a key area of production; • Increasing debate over when global oil supply will peak58.

There is also increasing conflict over access and control of the world’s remaining resources, as energy becomes a political weapon, and a heightened debate on ‘Peak Oil’ about the likely availability of oil and gas reserves.

As a consequence, energy has become a foreign policy issue, rather than simply a technical debate.

New York Times columnist Tom Friedman (February 2006) remarked59 that the “energy question has overtaken Iraq as the most important issue in US foreign policy” further propelling attention and investment in clean energy sources beyond the traditional climate change drivers. In the public realm, it is rising petrol and energy prices that are bringing home the message that energy security is relevant to everyone.

“Combating climate change will be a top priority of British foreign policy.”

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ENERGY SECURITY AND OIL PRICES

“The energy question has overtaken Iraq as the most important issue in US foreign policy.”

New York Times columnist and author Thomas L. Friedman, February 2006 ENERGY CRISIS, RENEWABLE SOLUTIONS Unlike the 1970s oil crisis when most alternatives had not been invented or commercialised, the current energy crisis is sparking a surge of interest and investment in renewable energies that are commercially and technologically deployable, namely wind, solar, energy efficiency, biofuels and geothermal. In March 2006, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, on his visit to Australia for the Energy Forum with John Howard, said that “It may well be that America comes into [renewables] for reasons as much to do with energy security as with greenhouse gas emissions”60.

World production of biofuels — already a viable substitute for fossil fuels in transport — was approximately 3% of the total petrol consumed globally. Global biofuels use in 2005 was 35 billion litres. In Brazil, ethanol provided 44% of all non-diesel motor vehicle fuel consumed in 2004, and ethanol was blended with 30% of all gasoline sold in the US61. An estimated 1 million flex-fuel cars are expected to be on Brazil’s roads by the end of 2005.

In Europe and the US recent calls to improve energy security and reduce dependence on imported oil have been accompanied by support for more energy efficiency, biofuels and renewable energy. These actions include: • In his 2006 State of the Union address, President George Bush made the now famous statement “America is addicted to oil”. He then called for a reduction in oil imports, particularly from “unstable parts of the world”62.”

• Launching the European Green Paper on Energy Security63 on March 2006, European President Jose Manuel Barroso said, “I’m aiming for over half the European Union’s energy being from secure and low carbon sources in 20 years”64.

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• In March 2006 the European Parliament’s Environment Committee, referring to concerns over energy security and transport said, “the EU’s energy strategy should concentrate initially on the total substitution of fossil fuel use in the transport sector by 2030”. The EU target for 2010 is 5.75% market share (petrol and diesel) for biofuels, up from 1.4% at the end of 2004.

In 2006 the EU will publish a report that will look at increasing this target65.

• A recent survey of US public opinion by the Public Agenda Foundation revealed a striking change on foreign oil; virtually all Americans surveyed (90%) said they see the United States becoming less dependent on other countries for supply of energy for strengthening the nation’s security. The report concluded that public concern over US dependence on foreign oil may soon force policy makers to shift course66,67.

• Former US CIA Chief and Head of National Security for Ronald Reagan, James Woolsey, recently called for an end to oil consumption saying that, “There is a large family of technologies available that could entirely eliminate US reliance on foreign oil within 20 years”68.

• Reports from China show similar responses to concerns over energy security. In February 2006 the official China Daily reported that a strategy to reduce dependence on oil was under development. Biomass, ethanol, coal (seam) gas, wind, solar and nuclear power were all mentioned as alternatives that would reduce the current reliance on oil and coal. China already has a target of 15% of its energy coming from renewable sources by 2020 (bigger than current Australian initiatives)69.

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THE TOP SIX MOST IMPORTANT MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN POWER MARKETS OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AS RANKED BY EXECUTIVES 2004

2006

1

INCREASING TRANSMISSION CAPACITY

1

CONCERNS OVER SECURITY OF SUPPLY

2

CONCERNS OVER SECURITY OF SUPPLY

2

ENCOURAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

3

INCREASED JV ACTIVITY FROM OIL MAJORS/FINACIAL INSTITUTIONS

3

INCREASING REGULATION AND OBLIGATION

4

CONTINUING WHOLESALE PRICE VOLATILITY

4

INCREASING EFFICIENCY OF CONVENTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES

5

INCREASING REGULATION AND OBLIGATION

5

CONTINUING WHOLESALE PRICE VOLATILITY

6

ENCOURAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

6

REGULATION OF EMISSIONS

The big leap: Utilities global survey 2006, PricewaterhouseCoopers survey of 116 senior executives in 43 countries of 98 Utility companies

“It would be tragic if Australia’s future energy security were viewed only through the media and political prism of nuclear energy, rather than the broader bio-fuel and alternative energy potential.”

Opinion piece by Allan Fels and Fred Brenchley, AFR, 2006

AUSTRALIA’S LIMITED RESPONSE In 2003-04, Australia produced 78% of its oil and refined product and was a net oil and gas exporter. No longer. Australia’s trade deficit for oil and gas was estimated to be AU$4.7 billion in 2005 and is expected to rise to AU$12-25 billion within nine years. By 2030, the country is expected to import 50% of its oil70, barring a major change in energy policy.

In answer to the growing energy crisis, the Australian Government has focused on the option of nuclear power on his recen trip to the USA the Prime Minister John Howard said, “The whole atmosphere in Washington created by the high level of oil prices is transforming the debate on energy [and] alternative energy sources. It may be desirable that Australia in the future builds nuclear power plants”71.

In 2001, The Prime Minister called for a minimum of 350 million litres of biofuels to be introduced into the Australian fuel market by 2010, only 0.7% of the country’s fuel use. Globally the world is already using 35 billion litres of biofuels a year. It is small consolation that Australia looks set to achieve this target72.

There are significant opportunities in the alternative fuels market market not just in Australia but for export. Under current policies that have not been updated to reflect recent energy crises, biofuels remain another missed opportunity in Australia’s floundering renewable energy industry.

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INTERNATIONAL POLICY

International diplomacy on climate change has a heightened sense of urgency and activity. The Kyoto Protocol signed by 163 countries entered into force in 2005 and the subsequent meeting in Montreal, Canada launched fresh global action on a number of important levels, including the adoption of the rulebook setting the framework for trading and potential future action by developing countries. The most recent meeting in Germany in May 2006 set an ambitious agenda towards “science-based emissions reduction targets” on the part of industrialised countries within the next few years. Often cited by the US and Australia as major Kyoto failure, action by and within the developing world is gathering pace. To date the Protocol has created US$2.7 billion (AU$3.6 billion) of greenhouse friendly investment in the developing world, especially China, Brazil and Mexico. Over 750 projects are underway, and the forecast investment by 2012 in developing countries is US$100 billion (AU$133 billion). Since 2005, climate change has also become a top priority for the G8 and the UK’s Presidency of the EU. Australia has put its international eggs in the Asia Pacific Partnership (AP6) basket, which recently suffered a body blow when the US House of Representatives blocked US$52 million (AU$70 million) for AP6 committed by President Bush.

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KYOTO PROTOCOL MEETING IN MONTREAL An historic first, the most recent Kyoto meeting73 held in Montreal, Canada in December last year was the first official meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol since it became legally binding in February 2005. A total of 163 nations have ratified the pact. Only two developed nations have not ratified: the US and Australia74,75.

Hosting the meeting in North America, a first in Kyoto’s ten-year history, had an enormous impact on raising awareness of climate change, particularly in the recalcitrant US, with Congress taking a particular interest.

The Montreal meeting ended ten years of negotiations to launch and establish the Kyoto Protocol, and saw a new round of talks begin on future actions. More than 40 decisions were agreed at the meeting to strengthen global efforts to fight climate change.

Key outcomes of the Montreal meeting included: • Adoption of the rulebook referred to as the “Marrakesh accords”, which sets the framework, operating rules, compliance regime and reporting and review process for implementing the Protocol and establishing security for the global carbon market; • Strengthening and funding of the Clean Development Mechanism that enables investment in low emissions technologies in developing countries; • The launch of the second Kyoto carbon trading mechanism — Joint Implementation (JI), including the establishment of a governing body. JI allows developed countries to work

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KYOTO, THE G8 AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL FORUMS ARE ESTABLISHING TOUGHER PARAMETERS FOR GLOBAL ACTION TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE.

“[Montreal] has been one of the most productive UN Climate Change Conferences ever … This plan sets the course for future action on climate change.”

Richard Kinley, Acting Head, United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, December 2005

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INTERNATIONAL POLICY

DEVELOPING WORLD ON THE MOVE Often cited as a failure of the Kyoto process, a noticeable change at the Montreal meeting was the shift by developing world countries including China toward emissions reductions initiatives and the consideration of carbon trading with the developing world. To date, the Protocol has created a number of projects outcomes in the developing world including76:

together to meet emission reduction commitments.

Politically, the Montreal Kyoto meeting was important for several reasons. These include: • THE US BLINKED — In the final hour, a change in the US position, whose delegation at one point walked out of the meeting, reflected the pressure from participating nations as well as within the US, particularly from Congress, to stay with the Kyoto process. While the US has not ratified Kyoto, it has agreed to continue to attend future talks.

• FUTURE ACTION ESTABLISHED — The process for agreeing a new round of binding emissions cuts required by participating industrialised countries (Annex I) post 2012, when the first round of Kyoto emission targets expire, has already commenced.

• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONSIDER ACTION — An important shift among developing countries is starting with some key countries willing to

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discuss initiatives to reduce their emissions and take part in carbon trading.

SESSIONS OF THE SUBSIDIARY BODIES, 17 — 26 MAY 2006, BONN, GERMANY The post-Montreal UN meeting held in Bonn, Germany in May 2006 set an ambitious agenda towards agreeing future emissions reduction targets. The meeting reflected a strong sense of urgency and a clear consensus that there should be no gap in action after 2012 when the Kyoto Protocol ends. The UNFCCC said that “Developing countries, which will be hit hardest by climate change, are pushing for rapid agreement on deeper emissions cuts”77.

G8 Climate change was a major agenda item at the July 2005 G879 summit, chaired by the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

The G8 countries agreed that climate change “is

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• US$2.7billion

(AU$3.6 billion) of projects given

the go ahead in 2005 (66% of these in China).

•

Projects worth

US$900 million

(AU$1,200 million)

are underway in the first quarter of 2006.

• 750 • 1 billion tonnes projects are in the pipeline.

Over

of emissions reductions by 2012.

•

Forecast to leverage

US$100billion

(AU$133 billion)

investment into developing countries by 2012 via the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

a serious and long-term challenge” and committed to “act with resolve and with urgency now” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The G8 stated that “we know enough to act now to put ourselves on a path to slow and, as the science justifies, stop and then reverse the growth of greenhouse gases”.

The G8 meeting participants: • Recognised that it is in their interest to work together, and in partnership with major emerging economies, to find ways to achieves substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

• Charged the World Bank to take a leadership

role in creating a new investment framework for clean energy and development.

• Requested that the International Energy Agency (IEA) explore alternative scenarios for energy and develop new strategies to create a “clean, clever and competitive energy future”.

EUROPEAN UNION The March 2005 Heads of State meeting of the 25 Member States of the EU79 set a standard by which all discussions and initiatives on climate change can be measured. The meeting of the 25

‘We know that, globally, emissions must slow, peak and then decline, moving us towards a low-carbon economy.’

Chair’s Summary, Gleneagles G8 summit, 8 July 2005

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INTERNATIONAL POLICY

“I’m deeply concerned about the issue and we’ve got to address it and the United States is not doing enough.”

John McCain, US Senator (Rep, AZ), January 2006

Governments concluded with a commitment to develop an EU strategy to combat climate change consistent with meeting the agreed EU objective for limiting the increase in global mean temperature to 2°C, the threshold scientists consider could prevent catastrophic impacts. The conclusions include: • A commitment to explore options for a post2012 arrangement in the context of the UN climate change process to ensure the widest possible cooperation by all countries to determine an effective and appropriate international response; • A commitment to develop a medium and longterm EU strategy to combat climate change, consistent with meeting the 2°C objective. This includes ensuring a greenhouse gas emissions reduction pathway for developed countries internationally in the order of 15 to 30% by 2020. It also calls for effectively involving major energy-consuming countries, including those among the emerging and developing world nations.

ASIA-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP ON CLEAN DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE (AP6) In July 2005, Australia and the US announced the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6)80. Its stated aim is to promote cooperation and increase investment in developing low emissions technologies between the six participating countries: Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea and the US. Based on the outcomes of the January 2006 summit in Sydney, the initiative to date does not significantly contribute to tackling climate change.

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AP6 may develop its stated intentions for achieving them at a later date.

In May 2006 the US House of Representatives blocked US$ 52 million (AU$70 million) of funding for the Asia Pacific Partnership committed by President Bush. Jim Connaughton, White House Council on Environmental Quality said, “If we don’t get the budget it will be a great challenge”81.

Major limitations of the AP6 agreement to date include: • THE GAP BETWEEN EMISSION REDUCTION ACTIVITY UNDER THE AP6 AND THE NEED TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING FROM EXCEEDING DANGEROUS LEVELS. • Scientists believe greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the order of 60% are required by the middle of the century.

• Modelling work undertaken for the AP6 shows that even with ambitious assumptions, the best case is that activities under the AP6 partnership would result in global emissions more than doubling by 2050.

• THE GAP BETWEEN AP6 INVESTMENT IN EMISSIONS REDUCTION AND THE OVERALL NEED. • The amount of funding so far committed by governments is minuscule compared to what is needed.

• A total of AU$169 million has been pledged to an AP6 clean energy fund by the US and Australian governments, the US contribution is now in doubt. Industry partners are still to announce their own contributions.

• The total pledge represents just 1.1% of the 2005 value of the global carbon markets, and only 0.3% of the 2005 global turnover of four clean energy industries.

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AUSTRALIA FALTERS

After the initial Kyoto period to 2012, the opportunity for further emissions reductions from land clearing will be minimal at best.

Despite the existence of various Government greenhouse programs, Australia has no plan or policy to halt the trend of rising emissions, or even to stabilise them. Under current policies, the only direction for Australia's greenhouse gas emissions is upwards. A shift to nuclear power would have no impact on these escalating emissions because it would take that long to get a nuclear power plant up and running. Deep emissions cuts with today’s technology at little cost to the economy are feasible, as detailed in section 3 - Business.

AUSTRALIAN GREENHOUSE PROJECTIONS TO 2020 850 750 650 Emissions Mt CO2-e

• It should be compared to the overall need for energy sector investment, which the International Energy Agency estimates will be in the order of US$16 trillion (AU$21 trillion) to meet escalating global energy demand through to 2030.

• To be considered a force for clean development AP6 will need to attract significantly larger amounts of public and private sector investment in the energy sector.

• THE LACK OF PROVEN DRIVERS TO ACCELERATE CLEAN TECHNOLOGY DEPLOYMENT. • The prevailing ideology behind AP6 is that developing and deploying new technologies, particularly in the rapidly expanding economies of China and India, is the key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

• However AP6 members have stopped short of introducing targets and timelines to drive deployment of low-emission technologies. The US and Australian governments continue to reject the use of a price signal on carbon to provide an incentive for their deployment.

• As a result AP6 members claim to have confidence that the market will deliver clean technology, yet they have not seen a current need to establish any market mechanisms to drive private investment.

• Economists emphasize that while industry is known to respond to price signals and the new markets they create, industry response to Government-led spending is uncertain.

According to the Government’s projections, Australia is on track to meet its Kyoto obligations of limiting the increase in emissions to 8% above 1990 levels by around 2010. A closer look at the Government's claim reveals that this result is being achieved largely through reductions in land clearing which has been occuring since 1990 for reasons unrelated to climate change or greenhouse policy . The significant reductions in the land use change and forestry sector are masking enormous increases in emissions in almost all other sectors, particularly energy and transport.

This means that Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions are expected to grow to 22% above 1990 levels by 2020. Emissions primarily from electricity generation are expected to grow by 46% from 1990 to 2010 and 70% by 2020, and transport emissions by 53% to 2010 and 78% by 2020.82

550 450 350 250 1990

Drop due to reduction in land clearing

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Source: Tracking to the Kyoto Target 2005: Australia's Greenhouse Emissions Trends1990 to 2008-12 and 2020, Australian Greenhouse Office

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7

CARBON PROFITS

“The global carbon market could be worth US$25-30 billion (AU$33-40 billion) in 2006, based on volumes in the first four months of the year, according to the World Bank.”

World Bank, “State and trends of the carbon market 2006”

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INTERNATIONAL CARBON TRADING MARKETS HAVE EXPLODED, ARE ALREADY WORTH BILLIONS AND ARE PROJECTED TO BE ONE OF THE LARGEST COMMODITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD.

The global carbon market has exploded in the last two years, largely driven by the Kyoto Protocol and the introduction of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme.

The carbon market was worth over US$10 billion (AU$13 billion) in 2005. In the first quarter of 2006, overall transactions worth US$7.5 billion (AU$10 billion) have led to predictions that this new financial market could triple this year to a value of between US$25-30 billion (AU$33-40 billion) in 2006. In the not too distant future, carbon is likely to be one of the world’s biggest commodity markets.

Examples of the growth in this market include: • The EU carbon trading market facilitated financial transactions worth US$8.2 billion (AU$10.9 billion) in 2005, the equivalent of 322 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. This represented a 35-fold increase over the previous years’ volumes. Trading in the EU in the first quarter of 2006 was worth US$ 6.6 billion (AU$8.8 billion)83.

• The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has 750 projects in the pipeline across 58 countries, with a value to the developing world of US$0.9 billion (AU$1.2 billion) in the first quarter of 200684.

• Around these markets a substantial body of companies providing services has grown in the areas of trading, broking, consulting, legal assistance, risk management, monitoring, verification, validation, information technology, software development and project development85.

• There are also a number of unconnected national and sub-national carbon emissions trading markets at different stages of development. Some are in Kyoto signatory States, while others are in non-signatory States.

The result is segmented markets that do not yet achieve the potential of a large and liquid global trading market. Discussions on linking these markets are underway.

• In the United States, a growing number of businesses are joining voluntary schemes such as the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) in order to prepare for possible future mandatory emissions caps. Corporate members include Ford, IBM, Baxter Healthcare International and Bayer. Under the exchange, Baxter Healthcare Corp. executed the first transaction linking greenhouse gas emission trading systems in Europe and North America in May 200686.

• In addition, states on both the east and west coasts of the US are establishing regional carbon trading schemes that would require power companies to trade emissions of heat-trapping gases (as noted in the US section above).

“We believe [carbon trading is] going to evolve to be big business,” Robert Collins, president of the New York Mercantile Exchange, February 2004

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CARBON PROFITS

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AUSTRALIAN CARBON TRADING The Australian Government has not established a carbon market and has declined to support any form of carbon emissions trading. Behind the scenes there is some agreement that a carbon price signal is the most efficient economic policy response to climate change but to date there has been a great deal of talk and very little action.

Efforts to date include: • All Australian State and Territory Governments are working on the design of a national emissions trading scheme87 that would establish a carbon price signal for the Australian economy. They believe an emissions trading scheme “offers flexible and cost effective options to meet greenhouse targets”, and have agreed ten design propositions as the basis for developing the scheme. These include adopting a cap and trade approach, initially covering the stationary energy sector, allowing offsets, and addressing adverse effects and structural adjustment needs. A green paper on how to turn these ten design propositions into a scheme is due by the end of June 2006. By setting 2010 as a possible start date, the Australian Government has been given every chance to come to the table. The States also acknowledge that the success of an Australian scheme will depend on establishing links to carbon markets elsewhere, which will take time.

• The New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme commenced on 1 January 2003 and is to remain in force until 2012. It imposes mandatory greenhouse gas benchmarks on all NSW electricity retailers and other parties. Participants are required to reduce their GHG emissions to the level of their greenhouse gas benchmark by offsetting their excess emissions through the surrender of tradeable abatement certificates. Details of the NSW commitment are given in the November 2005 NSW Greenhouse Action Plan88.

Support for carbon pricing has grown slowly and steadily in corporate Australia, with the view that its absence is a regulatory and investment risk, for example: • Westpac Bank’s Chief Executive Officer David Morgan said recently “the phased introduction of a market-based carbon-pricing mechanism would provide an important impetus for investment and support for greenhouse gas emissions reductions at lowest practical cost, while not compromising competitive growth”89.

• Origin Energy’s Chief Executive Officer Grant King remarked in January 2006 that “the absence of a clearly defined framework for applying a carbon cost is a major impediment to investment decisions, particularly in power generation” (speaking at the launch of the Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change, April 2006)90.

• The Australian Industry Greenhouse Network, in December 2005 is on record as saying, “Everyone accepts that there will be price signals for carbon and we will eventually join an international carbon trading market,” although they do not favour introducing a carbon price signal right now91.

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8

CLEAN ENERGY

Clean energy technologies — wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal and hydropower — have come of age. In 2005 the global market was US$56 billion (AU$74 billion).

Clean energy is now a major part of power systems throughout the world. Advanced generations of clean energy technologies continue to improve and costs are declining with mass production and deployment. With double digit growth, clean energy is one of the hottest commercial sectors in the world.

The ‘alternatives’ tag is now an anachronism.

PROJECTED GROWTH IN THE CLEAN ENERGY MARKET 2006 — 2015

IN US$ BILLIONS

2006

2015

WIND

11.8

48.5

SOLAR POWER

11.2

51.1

BIOFUELS

15.7

52.5

1.2

15.1

39.9

167.2

FUEL CELLS TOTAL

Source: Clean Energy Trends 2006, Clean Edge Inc.

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Evidence of this includes:92,93 • In 2005, the total global investment in clean energy technologies was US$42.2 billion (AU$56 billion). Including Mergers and Acquisitions activities, the total financial transaction value is US$56 billion (AU$74 billion).

• From 2005 to 2015 the annual market of the four leading technologies in the clean energy sector is predicted to grow fourfold from US$39.9 billion (AU$53.2) per annum to US$167.2 billion (AU$223 billion) per annum.

• Major corporate interests in these technologies include General Electric, Siemens, BP, Goldman Sachs, Toyota and Sharp. Bill Gates’ investment company Cascade Investment recently acquired a significant stake in Pacific Ethanol in the US. • In 2004 direct jobs in manufacturing, operations and maintenance were 1.7 million for renewables. For example, there are 400,000 jobs in the Brazilian ethanol sector, 250,000 jobs in the Chinese solar hot water industry, and Germany has more than 150,000 jobs in renewables overall.

• The fastest growing energy technology in the world is grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV), which grew in existing capacity by 60% per year from 2000 — 2004, covering more than 400,000 rooftops in Japan, Germany and the US. • Rooftop solar collectors provide hot water to nearly 40 million households worldwide, 60% of which are in China.

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FORMERLY A BOUTIQUE PLAYER IN THE ENERGY ARENA, RENEWABLE ENERGY IS MAINSTREAM AND BOOMING, WITH US$56 BILLION (AU$74 BILLION) OF BUSINESS WORLDWIDE IN 2005

“Most of the firms that were active in high-tech have now set up clean-tech divisions.”

Ron Pernick, Clean Edge Inc. co-founder talking about US venture activity in an interview with RenewableEnergyAccess.com, May 2006

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CLEAN ENERGY

EUROPE

AMERICAS

64,191 MW 56 GW NEW CAPACITY VALUE: €54 BILLION (AU$91 BILLION)

GLOBAL WIND MARKET FORECAST 2005-2015 Source: BTM Consult ten year review 2005

• Brazil has been the world leader in biofuels for more than 25 years, requiring all gasoline sold to be blended with ethanol, and all gas stations sell both pure ethanol and ethanol blends.

Similar blending requirements are in place in China and India as well as at least 20 states and provinces internationally.

• In a recent Price Waterhouse Coopers survey of 116 senior executives from 98 utilities across 43 countries, renewable energy topped the list when they were asked about which technology would make the biggest impact on greenhouse gas emissions94.

WIND POWER • The total global wind energy market was worth over US$14 billion (AU$18 billion) in 2005 including all non-turbine costs95 and is growing at an average of 18% per year. Key new markets this decade are America, India, China and Japan as well as the biggest global wind market, Europe.

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• Since 2000, more than 50% of all new electricity generating capacity built in the 25 EU countries has been wind power96.

• It is predicted that the global wind energy market by 2015 will grow from 59GW installed to 271GW installed — a total market value over the next decade of €212billion (AU$359 billion).

• In 2005, for the first time the US was the largest global market for annual installed wind capacity with over US$3billion in new equipment (AU$3.93 billion). President Bush recently affirmed his interest in wind power as a significant energy source, stating that “areas with good wind resources have the potential to supply up to 20% of the electricity consumption of the United States”97.

• In March 2006, a contract was agreed to provide 100% of the energy needed to power the Statue of Liberty, Ellis Island Museum and 22 Federal Buildings from windmills in New York, West Virginia and Pennsylvania98.

148,800 M 56GWNEW C VALUE: €103 B (AU$175 BILLI O

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SOUTH & EAST ASIA

0 MW W CAPACITY 3 BILLION

39,314 MW 32 GW NEW CAPACITY VALUE: €32 BILLION (AU$54 BILLION)

I ON) REST OF THE WORLD

9,158 MW 9GW NEW CAPACITY VALUE: €9 BILLION (AU$15 BILLION)

OECD PACIFIC

15,048 MW 14 GW NEW CAPACITY VALUE: €14 BILLION (AU$24 BILLION)

TOTAL WORLD: 271,512

MW WIND POWER CAPACITY IN 2015 NEW CAPACITY FROM 2005 TO 2015: 212,OOO GW €212 BILLION (AU$359 BILLION) AUSTRALIAN CLEAN ENERGY — FALLING OFF THE INVESTMENT CLIFF Australia is blessed with huge renewable resources including wind, sun, wave and biomass. As the debate on nuclear power gathers pace, the Australian clean energy industry has been effectively killed off: ironically because the industry has so successfully responded to a good Government policy — the MRET scheme (Mandatory Renewable Energy Target).

In 2005 there was a 229% growth in commissioned clean energy projects compared of 2004. The 2010 MRET target for renewables has been met. The consequence is that there is no incentive for continued growth and investment. Under current policy, the renewables industry is firing not hiring, going offshore and abandoning future investments.

The stalling of MRET has resulted in the loss of AU$13 billion of further investment in wind energy for Australia. Renewable energy company Roaring Forties, part of Hydro Tasmania, recently announced that AU$750 million of wind investments would be stalled due to the Australian Government’s failure to

increase its renewable energy target beyond the current level.

This investment cliff did not come as a surprise but was foreseen some years ago. In 2003 a review into the scheme chaired by The Hon Grant E J Tambling recommended the extension of the target to 20,000 GWh by 2020 for this reason99 but the results were not reflected in policy change.

The same year, the industry’s lobby group the Business Council for Sustainable Energy proposed a target of 21,600 GWh by 2010 — in effect to more than double the Government target for 2010 that has already been met in 2005 — which would come at a cost of less than AU$4 on the average household quarterly electricity bill, and sustain a viable domestic renewables industry100.

Renewable energy in Australia has been penalized by its own success, and could have doubled in size for less than $15 per household per year. The proportion of energy that Australia generates from renewables is in decline, in contrast to global trends.

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9

POP CULTURE

Not Cool.

Temperatures are rising thanks to global warming.

That means we can expect more frequent heat waves along with increased air pollution, smog and infectious diseases.

The number of deaths from global warming are projected to double over the next 15 years.

It’s time to do something.

Now. Global warming isn’t cool.

Stopping it is. Visit

www.ClimateStar.org

ORLANDO BLOOM, CLIMATE STAR

Produced in partnership with the Steven & Michele Kirsch Foundation

©2003 ECO

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TOO HARD, TOO FRIGHTENING, TOO “GREEN”? NO MORE. CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOW EMBEDDED IN POPULAR CULTURE BE IT TV, MOVIES OR CELEBRITY CHAMPIONS.

From Cannes Film Festival appearances and www.climatestar.org to Vanity Fair and Rolling Stone magazines, climate change has now entered the mainstream of popular culture.

In late 2005 and early 2006, media, entertainment outlets and celebrities seemed to be tripping over themselves to have something to say about climate change whenever and wherever possible. If nothing else, the pop culture status of climate change represents a tipping point in how much public attention has changed from “too hard and too scary” to “we must do something about it ”.

Recent climate change pop culture examples include: • Proof positive that climate change has made the mainstream is Vanity Fair’s first special edition, 52-page Green Issue featuring former US VicePresident Al Gore and his new climate change film along with George Clooney, Julia Roberts and Robert F. Kennedy, all shot for the cover by photographer Annie Leibovitz (May 2006). In addition to the pop side of the story, the issue also included an in-depth article by respected journalist Mark Hertsgaard on how the same tactics used by Big Tobacco to avert the scientific link between smoking and cancer have been used with regard to climate change, entitled While Washington Slept101.

“Global warming isn’t cool.

Stopping it is.”

Actors Kevin Bacon, Orlando Bloom, Mischa Barton, Esia Moales and Jorja Fox in a Union of Concerned Scientist and Earth Communications Office ad campaign, 2006

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POP CULTURE

“I am not one of those who is pessimistic about the future of the world, assuming we get off our butts and do something about climate change in a timely fashion.”

Former US President Bill Clinton, 25 May 2006.

• In November 2005, Rolling Stone (US) ran a cover story entitled The debate is over by renowned environmental writer Bill McKibben, an essay by the popular Mr. Gore, profiles of 24 climate change “Warriors and Heroes” and an extensive article on solutions to the problem. In March 2006, the Australian version of Rolling Stone followed suit focusing on local aspects of the issue and home-grown heroes102.

• MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 — The May 2006 new instalment of the MI series includes a dramatic helicopter chase set in a giant wind farm in Germany (filmed in Palm Springs, California)104.

• ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN — With a climate change bent and Ellie the computer-animated mammoth in the starring role, this 20th Century Fox movie took in more than US$100 million at the US box office in two weeks105.

MOVIES • Al Gore’s AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH, blends the former US Vice-President’s personal journey with his crusade to convince the world, and particularly a reluctant US public, that climate change is real. From his appearances at Sundance and Cannes for film screenings to successfully persuading the mainstream US media to cover the issue, Gore may go down in history as the only US Vice President to do more out of office than in103.

TELEVISION • In May 2006, Al Gore hosted the US’s longstanding comedy show Saturday Night Live with an opening skit delivering his second State of the Union address having stopped global warming, moved the US off of oil and relegated George W. Bush to Baseball Commissioner106. Meanwhile, the UK’s Bob the Builder has been recruited in a campaign to raise awareness about climate change in Europe and, in particular, to pressure EU Energy Minster Jose Manuel Barroso to give up his fourwheel drive107.

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CELEBRITY SUPPORT • The glitterati attaching their names to climate change is another sign of the popular and mainstream nature of this issue. including a celebrity ad campaign (www.climatestar.org) with Kevin Bacon, Orlando Bloom and Esai Morales108, UK band Coldplay, offsetting emissions from their album’s production by planting trees in India, actress Thandie Newton campaigning on behalf of Greenpeace, and George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Leonardo Di Caprio to name but a few.

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10 Although slow in coming, climate change has at last reached a tipping point as a societal issue and moved from being the sole purview of scientists, energy experts and environmentalists into other areas of community life, particularly those focused on ethics and spirituality. With overwhelming scientific evidence and the call by international leaders for immediate action on climate change, church and community leaders around the world have faced up to the real threat posed by climate change to the planet and the humanity that depends on it. Two important aspects of the issue have helped spur religious groups into action, namely the belief that humans are God’s custodians of the planet and the growing need to help those of their faith understand and cope with the fact that, left unchecked, climate change could threaten our existence on Earth.

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MORAL ISSUE

Below are a few of the initiatives underway by religious organisations and others to address the moral aspects of climate change: • ANGLICAN LEADERS DENOUNCE ENVIRONMENTAL “SIN” — A key international body of the Anglican Church declared the willful destruction of the environment to be a sin in July 2005 pointing specifically to climate change as the world’s most serious threat. The collective of bishops involved said the gravity of the crisis called for swift and radical action to prevent rising sea levels that threaten island nations. They said a critical part of the solution was in the development of alternatives to fossil fuels109.

• CHRISTIAN LEADERS FOR EARLY ACTION — First established in 1998, the European Christian Environmental Network (ECEN) represents a wide range of church traditions from 26 European nations with a major focus on climate change. An early leader, the ECEN has been instrumental in recent years in lobbying governments and forums such as the G8 to take prodigious action on climate change as “a united witness to caring for God’s creation”110.

• US EVANGELICALS SIGN ON TO THE ISSUE — In February 2006, some 86 evangelical Christian leaders in the US, of the more conservative in the nation, came together to jointly sign a major initiative called Evangelical Climate Initiative stating that “millions of people could die in this century because of climate change, most of them our poorest global neighbors.” The initiative calls for federal legislation that would require reductions in carbon dioxide emissions through “cost-effective, market-based mechanisms” and includes plans for television and radio spots in

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ONCE THE PURVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTALISTS AND SCIENTISTS, CLIMATE CHANGE HAS BEEN EMBRACED AS A MORAL ISSUE BY CHURCHES, FAITHS AND SPIRITUAL LEADERS.

What Would Jesus Drive?

T

o some, the question might seem amusing.

But we take it seriously.

As our Savior and Lord Jesus Christ teaches us, “Love your neig hbor as yourself.” (Mk 12:30-31) Of all the choices we make as consume rs, the cars we drive have the single biggest imp act on all of God’s creation.

Car pollution causes illness and death, and most afflicts the elderly, poor, sick and young.

It also contributes to global warming, putting millions at risk from drought, flood, hun ger and homelessness.

Rev. Clive Calver, Ph.D. President, World Relief Rev. Richard Cizik Vice President for Governmental Affairs, National Association of Evangelicals Loren Cunningham Founder, Youth with a Mission President, University of the Nations

Sponsored By

Transportation is now a moral choice and an issue for Christian reflection. It’s abou t more than engineering— it’s about ethics. Abo ut obedience. About loving our neighbo r.

So what would Jesus drive?

We call upon America’s automobile indu stry to manufacture more fuel-efficient vehi cles.

And we call upon Christians to drive them.

Because it’s about more than vehicles— it’s about values.

Rev. David H. Englehard, Ph.D. General Secretary, Christian Reformed Church in North America Millard Fuller Founder & President, Habitat for Humanity International Rev. Vernon Grounds, Ph.D. Chancellor, Denver Seminary

Rev. Steve Hayner, Ph.D. Past President, InterVarsity Christian Fellowship Rev. Roberta Hestenes, Ph.D. International Minister, World Vision Rev. Richard Mouw, Ph.D. President, Fuller Theological Seminary Rev. Ron Sider, Ph.D. President, Evangelicals for Social Actio n

THE EVANGELICAL ENVIRONMENTAL N

10 East Lancaster Ave., Wynnewood,

PA 19096

ETWORK

www.WhatWouldJesusDrive.org

Partial list of signatories. Affiliations listed

for identification only.

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MORAL ISSUE

states with influential legislators, informational campaigns in churches and educational events at Christian colleges111.

• EVANGELICALS TAKE MESSAGE TO CAPITOL HILL — In March 2005, more than 100 US evangelical leaders met on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC with Republican and Democratic officials to discuss global warming and pressed for leadership to address the issue, particularly around Kyoto participation. The group collectively represents 30 million people in the US and they told congressional representatives, “we can mobilize them [around this issue] if we have to”112.

• NEW ZEALAND AND THE PACIFIC CALL FOR ACTION — Some 18 New Zealand and Pacific Anglican bishops called for governments and people to take action on climate change in the region in April 2006. In a statement released at the close of their two-day meeting, the Bishop’s said, “Climate change is a real and present danger to the future of this planet and the survival of the

species”. They called on politicians to take action to limit climate change including both containment and reduction strategies, and said all parties must work together beyond the “electoral cycle” to find solutions113.

• UK CALLS FOR DEVELOPING WORLD CLIMATE CHANGE FUND — Increasingly, there is a push to establish funds to help developing countries prepare for and adapt to climate change on ethical grounds, not unlike the current campaign to reduce developing world debt. In April 2006, UK Chancellor Gordon Brown called on the World Bank to establish a US$20 billion (AU$26.7 billion) fund to help developing countries invest in alternative energy sources to combat climate change saying “we have a special responsibility to help the poorest countries to adapt to climate change…” He added, “It is the poorest — those who depend most upon the natural world for their survival, and those with the fewest resources to buy their way out of unhealthy environments — that suffer the most”114.

“As Christians, our faith in Jesus Christ compels us to love our neighbors and to be stewards of God’s creation. The good news is that with God’s help, we can stop global warming, for our kids, our world and for the Lord.”

The Rev. Joel Hunter, pastor of a “megachurch” in Longwood, Florida

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“I don’t think God is going to ask us how he created the Earth, but he will ask us what we did with what he created.”

The Rev. Rich Cizik, vice president of governmental affairs for the National Association of Evangelicals, USA, March 2005

AUSTRALIAN CHURCHES CALL FOR ACTION The Australian faithful have also become active on the issue of climate change with more collaborative action expected in 2006.

To date, efforts include: In June 2005, The National Council of Churches, with the support of the Uniting Church and Catholic Earthcare, joined the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) to call for action from individuals, churches and governments to tackle dangerous climate change. Their brochure, Changing Climate, Changing Creation, distributed to churches nationally encourages Christians to write to or visit their federal MP and ask what each is doing to address climate change, find out more about reducing energy and water usage and waste at home and take action on climate change within churches and small groups115.

“the least that Australia could do” and followed their collective announcement with calls for parishioners and churches to switch to more sustainable practices, including use of gas or solar heating and green electricity, grey water recycling systems, car pooling and ethical investment policies to help reduce global warming. Copies were sent to more than 4000 parishes, schools, religious congregations and church agencies116.

Catholic call for Kyoto — In November 2005, Australia’s 30 Catholic bishops joined to call for ratifying the Kyoto Protocol as

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FOOTNOTES

1 www.greenhouse.gov.au/projections/index.html 2 www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/310/5752/1285 requires registered access 3 NASA www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.h tml 4 US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2621.htm 5 http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/standard/ps1r4,,.html 6 Geophysical Research Letters, May 2006, UC Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and Andreae et al. Nature 435, 1187-1190 7 www.agu.org/journals/gl/ - this article requires registered access.

8 US National Climate Data Center and Swiss Re www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/ann/ann05 .html 9 www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/36247 /story.htm 10 www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2005/ arcticice_decline.html 11 University of Colorado using data from NASA/German Aerospace Centre of Gravity and Climate http://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2006/06-03-02.html 12 NASA and Rutgers University, USA http://ur.rutgers.edu/medrel/science/ocean_rise.shtml, and http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2005/Nov/28486773.html 13 Overpeck, Otto-Bliesner et al. Science magazine Vol. 311. no. 5768, pp. 1751 – 1753 www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/311/5768/175 1 . This publication is reported in the following article: http://www.livescience.com/environment/060323_ice_m elt.html 14 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), UK www.stabilisation2005.com 15 University of Anglia, UK www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/press/2006-02-hotspots/ 16 http://climatechangefutures.org/pdf/ PressreleaseHarvardStudyShows.pdf 17 Australian Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate /change/20060104.shtml 18 “Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Impacts” CSIRO/Australian Greenhouse Office, 2003, p.88 and p. 121 19 South Australian Research and Development Institute and CSIRO www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1633527.htm 20 www.smh.com.au/news/NATIONAL/Climate-changecould-crush-wheatyields/2006/06/07/1149359793522.html 21 Henessy K et al (2006) “Climate change impacts on fireweather in south-east Australia” www.cmar.csiro.au/eprint/open/hennessykj_2005b.pdf 22 “Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Impacts” CSIRO/Australian Greenhouse Office, 2003, p.100 23 Australian Antarctic Division www.aad.gov.au/default.asp?casid=2100 24 US House of Representatives www.asme.org/NewsPublicPolicy/Newsletters/CapitolUp date/House_Appropriations_Adopts.cfm 25 http://lugar.senate.gov/pressapp/record.cfm?id=248775 26 www.energycommission.org/site/page.php? mediacoverage=39 27 www.pewclimate.org/policy_center/analyses/s_139_

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summary.cfm 28 www.climatenetwork.org/csa.htm 29 www.rggi.org/ 30 www.climatechange.ca.gov 31 www.ci.seattle.wa.us/mayor/climate/ 32 www.grist.org/news/muck/2006/04/06/griscomlittle/index.html 33 www.cpi.cam.ac.uk/bep/downloads/CLG_pressrelease_ letter.pdf and http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5050774.stm 34 http://www.ge.com/en/product/ecomagination/index.htm 35 New York Times interview at: www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/business/25walmart.html ?ex=1287892800&en=c406ce6ec0c8e6e2&ei=5090&part ner=rssuserland&emc=rss 36 www.chicagoclimatex.com/about/members.html 37 www.walmartfacts.com/newsdesk/article.aspx?id=1727 38 www.chicagoclimateexchange.com/news/press/release_ 20060515_MayRecord.pdf 39 www.cdproject.net 40 www.pacificethanol.net/_documents/PacificEthanol EquityandDebtFinancing_041706.pdf 41 http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/267349_ cleanenergy20.html 42 www.businessroundtable.com.au/pdf/F078-RT-WS.pdf 43 WWF, AGL and Frontier Economics www.agl.com.au/AGL/Press+Releases/03+May+2006.ht m 44 www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/EP46.html 45 Time magazine: www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1176980, 00.html, www.time.com/time/2001/globalwarming/splash.html 46 The New York Times www.nytimes.com/pages/business/businessspecial2/index. html?mkt=bizphoto 47 ABC World News Tonight http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/ 48 CBS 60 Minutes: www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/16/60minutes/main1 323169.shtml; www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/17/60minutes/main1 415985.shtml 49 CNN: www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2005/changing.earth/; www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/presents/index.melting.po int.html 50 www.hbo.com/docs/programs/toohot/index.html 51 PBS NOVA program : www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/ 52 The New Yorker www.newyorker.com/talk/content/articles/060424ta_talk _remnick 53 ABC Four Corners www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1566257.htm 54 www.theweathermakers.com 55 E Grace, ‘The Climate Bomb: A Risk Assessment of Climate Change’, The Diplomat, Vol 4, No. 6, March 2006, pp16–17 56 www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85206/danielyergin/ensuring-energy-security.html 57 Lugar, 17.5.06 www.eande.tv/ 58 www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm 59 Registration required http://select.nytimes.com/gst/tsc.html?URI=http://select. nytimes.com/2006/02/08/opinion/08friedman.html 60 http://environment.about.com/b/a/256559.htm 61 “Renewables 2005: Global Status Report”, prepared for the

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REN21 network by the Worldwatch Institute, lead author Eric Martinot. Available at: www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport/issueGroup.asp 62 www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/2006/index.html 63 http://ec.europa.eu/energy/green-paperenergy/doc/2006_03_08_gp_document_en.pdf 64 www.eubusiness.com/Energy/060308132907.h9iei3ne 65 http://ec.europa.eu/energy/res/biomass_action_plan/doc/ 2006_02_08_comm_eu_strategy_en.pdf.

66 http://publicagenda.org/foreignpolicy/foreignpolicy_ energy.htm 67 “The changing of the American mind “, Australian Financial Review 19 May 2006.

68 America must end its dependence on oil” Financial Times, 23 Jan 2006, available from (registration required) https://registration.ft.com/registration/barrier?referer=&lo cation=http%3A//news.ft.com/cms/s/e8a74ba6-8c4211da-9efb-0000779e2340.html 69 www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/200602/13/content_519550.htm 70 “Transport fuel the big worry,” Fels and Brenchley, Australian Financial Review, 30 May 2006 71 Sydney Morning Herald, 20th May 2006: www.smh.com.au/news/national/we-must-move-tonuclear-fuel-pm/2006/05/19/1147545529224.html 72 www.industry.gov.au/content/itrinternet/cmscontent.cfm? objectID=A9D9A207-0351-51FB-F20C287758203878 73 The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_world/c op11/index.cfm 74 UNFCC, http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press_releases_an d_advisories/application/pdf/20060526_final_26_may_pr ess_release-english.pdf 75 http://unfccc.int/2860.php 76 World Bank/International Emissions Trading Association — State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006, available from: http://carbonfinance.org/docs/StateoftheCarbonMarket20 06.pdf 77 http://unfccc.int/meetings/sb24/items/3648.php 78 www.g8.gov.uk/servlet/Front?pagename=OpenMarket/ Xcelerate/ShowPage&c=Page&cid=1094235520309 79 European Council, Presidency Conclusions, 22-23 March 2005, CONCL 1 7619/1/05 Rev 1. http://ue.eu.int/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/ec/ 84335.pdf 80 www.dfat.gov.au/environment/climate/ap6/index.html 81 “Climate body finds US well dry”, Australian Financial Review, 26 May 2006 82 www.greenhouse.gov.au/projections/index.html 83 World Bank/International Emissions Trading Association — State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006, http://carbonfinance.org/docs/StateoftheCarbonMarket20 06.pdf 84 ibid.

85 Ibid.

86 Chicago Climate Exchange www.chicagoclimateexchange.com/news/press/release_20 060504_EUETS.pdf 87 www.emissionstrading.nsw.gov.au/

88 www.greenhouseinfo.nsw.gov.au/__data/page/927/2811_FINAL_NSW_GH_Plan_web.pdf 89 http://acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_BLRT_CEOs_ statement.pdf 90 www.businessroundtable.com.au/index.html 91 “Kyoto may be dead but carbon will cost us sooner or later”, Amanda Hodge, The Australian, 17 December 2005 92 “Renewables 2005: Global Status Report”, prepared for the REN21 network by the Worldwatch Institute, lead author Eric Martinot. Available at: www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport/issueGroup.asp 93 “Clean Energy Trends 2006”, Clean Edge Inc. Download free from www.cleanedge.com/reports.php 94 “The Big Leap: Utilities Global Survey 2006” Price Waterhouse Coopers. www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/Content/Detail.asp?Releas eID=1890&NewsAreaID=2 95 Note: the figure of US$11.8 billion is for wind technology only, the higher figure represents technology plus financial transactions such as mergers and acquisitions.

96 Eurostat, 22 May 2006: http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/portal/page?_pageid=2453, 48540556&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL# 97 www.awea.org 98 www.scmontior.com/2006/0322/p02s02-sten.htm 99 www.mretreview.org 100 www.mretreview.gov.au/pubs/mret-submission165a.pdf 101 Vanity Fair www.vanityfair.com/features/general/articles/060417fege 09 for partial information 102 Rolling Stone www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/8730992/the_debate _is_over/ 103 Climate Crisis Net www.climatecrisis.net/ 104 Paramount Pictures www.missionimpossible.com/ 105 20th Century Fox www.iceagemovie.com/ 106 Saturday Night Live To view this clip: http://movies.crooksandliars.com/SNL-Al-Gore-5-1406.wmv 107 Telegraph, London, 4 June 2006, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/ 06/04/wbob04.xml 108 Union of Concerned Scientists Climatestar site, www.climatestar.org/ 109 Sydney Morning Herald 1 July 2005, www.smh.com.au/news/national/now-global-warming-isa-mortal-sin/2005/07/01/1119724815830.html 110 ECEN www.ecen.org/ecenhome.shtml 111 Evangelical Climate Initiative www.christiansandclimate.org/ 112 The New York Times www.theregenerationproject.org/images/nytimes.doc 113 www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3627311a11,00.html 114 HM Treasury www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/newsroom _and_speeches/press/2006/press_31_06.cfm 115 Australian Conservation Foundation www.acfonline.org.au/news.asp?news_id=410 116 Sydney Morning Herald, 18 November 2005, www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2005/11/18/1132016989 649.html

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“Australia has already lost solar thermal technology to China because there were no funds for its commercialisation. It would have created an industry worth at least $1billion, but that's gone now.�

Murdoch University Professor of Energy Studies Dr Phillip Jennings

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ABOUT THE CLIMATE INSTITUTE Established in late 2005, The Climate Institute (Australia) has a five-year campaign goal of raising public awareness and debate about the dangers to Australia of global warming and to motivate the country to take positive action.

For more information, see www.climateinstitute.org.au

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TOP TEN TIPPING POINTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE An analysis of how the fundamental trends of climate change have shifted and why Australia is adrift July 2006

by The Climate Institute (Australia) Ltd © The Climate Institute (Australia) Ltd Level 2 263 George Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Ph: (+61) 02-9252 5200 www.climateinstitute.org.au MEMBERS OF THE CLIMATE INSTITUTE BOARD Chair — Clive Hamilton, Executive Director, The Australia Institute Professor Tony McMichael, Director, National Centre for Epidemiology & Public Health Adam Kilgour, Managing Director & Chief Executive, CPR Cathy Zoi, Group Executive Director, Bayard Group Dr Hugh Saddler, Managing Director, Energy Strategies Mark Wootton Corin Millais, CEO, The Climate Institute (Australia) Ltd Printed on Harvest Gloss (ISO 14001 accreditation, containing 70% recycled sugar cane fibre along with 30% ECF pulp.)

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“We feel that there are enough technologies already available, so that if there’s the political will to do it, we can make substantial differences.”

Gary Stuggins, World Bank Energy Economist, June 2006

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TIPPING OVER THE EDGE: CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL MOMENTUM AND AUSTRALIA’S INERTIA. The Climate Institute, July 2006

THE CLIMATE INSTITUTE (AUSTRALIA) LTD LEVEL 2 263 GEORGE STREET SYDNEY, NSW 2000 PH: (+61) 02-9252 5200 www.climateinst ACN: 116 713 592

itute.org.au