TiCSA Tourism Barometer
June quarter 2025
Algalbloom andfloodingweighontheSAtourism industry
Unforeseen weather and environmental events led to solid declines in the TiCSA Barometer for the June quarter 2025, reversing a trend of improving conditions.
Various environmental and weather events significantly hampered tourism activity in the June quarter. SA’s coastline has been impacted by an algal bloom, leading to dead marine life and health warnings for visitors, which has disrupted key tourism regions. Additionally, the major flooding that occurred in Innamincka and along Cooper Creek in April led to the closure of numerous natural attractions, impacting tourism operators that rely heavily on seasonal visitors. The Barometer survey showed an estimated 15-20% of respondents had experienced a significant impact from recent flooding events and algae bloom.
While these events were key drivers of the fall in the Business Activity and Outlook indices in the June quarter, many survey respondents also continued to point to economic uncertainty, cost of living pressures and rising operating costs as hampering tourism activity.
Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Business Activity (Last Three Months)
The main reasons for the positive performance in the June quarter were:
• Increase in interstate travel;
• Increased digital presence;
• Adapted product or service;
• Introduced new product or service; and
• Accessing new markets.
“Quitealotofinterstatetravelersin SAsoexperiencedgoodsales.”
The main reasons for the negative performance in the June quarter were:
• Decreased visitors to the area;
• Weaker economy;
• Lack of consumer confidence;
• Rising business costs; and
• Decreased rates, prices or visitor spend in the business.
“Highcostoflivingandalsoincreased costtotravelers’business. ”
“Algalbloomhashadamassive effect.”
Figure 3: Business Activity in the Last Three Months
ended Weaker Stronger Barometer
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Business Activity by Market Segment (Last Three Months)
Consistent with the headline index, all market segments recorded levels of below 100 in the June quarter. The “festivals and events” segments reported the strongest conditions, consistent with comments from some respondents that the broader economy appeared to be improving following a difficult period.
Conditions were weakest in the “Holiday / Leisure” and business segments, with just 8% of operators within the “business” segment reporting an increase in activity, while 41% of the “Holiday / Leisure” segment recorded a decrease in activity, likely owing to the algal bloom and flooding events across the state in the quarter.
4: Business Activity – By Market Segment (June quarter 2025)
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Business Outlook (Next Three Months)
As previously mentioned, prior to this quarter the Business Outlook Index had trended higher since the recent trough in 2023, reflecting optimism that the worst of the cost-ofliving crisis and higher interest rates may be behind the tourism industry. However, the recent algal bloom and flooding events that impacted activity in the quarter appear to have weakened confidence amongst tourism operators.
Figure 5: Business Outlook for the Next Three Months
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Business Outlook (Next 12 Months)
Results in the June quarter for business outlook were weaker than the previous quarter. The proportion of businesses ‘extremely worried’ or ‘worried’ rose to 30% in the June quarter, up from 19% in the March quarter. However, only 1% of respondents were ‘very worried’ about the future outlook.
Further, the proportion of businesses that are ‘extremely confident’ or ‘confident’ in the outlook fell to 50%, down from 63% in the prior quarter and well below the pre-COVID long-term average of 67% While this is a large quarterly fall, 11% of respondents were ‘extremely confident’ in the outlook, up from 6% in the prior quarter
Figure 6: Business Outlook for the Next Twelve Months
Employment and Wages
Most tourism businesses continue to report no change in their employment. Unsurprisingly, the algal bloom and flooding events appear to have impacted labour market activity in the tourism industry in the June quarter, with an increase in the proportion of operators that reported a decrease in employment and a fall in the proportion reporting an increase.
This was also the case for the Wage Bill index in the June quarter, with a further decline in the proportion of operators reporting an increase in the wage bill.
Figure 7: Employment Trends
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Figure 8: Wages Bill
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Data from the ABS Labour Force Survey was consistent with the Barometer, showing total employment in the accommodation and food services industry fell 2,900 persons to 56,800 in May quarter 2025 Employment in the quarter was likely impacted by the algal bloom and flooding events. While industry employment is now 8,800 persons (or 13%) below the peak in November quarter 2022, over the past year employment has risen 6,400 persons (or 13%), with May quarter 2024 being the recent trough in employment after a prolonged period of elevated inflation, higher interest rates and labour scarcity.
Figure 9: SA Employment, Accommodation and Food Services Industry
Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Cat. No. 6291.055.003
Key Challenges for Tourism Businesses in SA
Similar to recent Barometers, survey respondents continue to cite rising business and staff costs, lack of cash flow, maintaining staff and insurance costs as key headwinds facing the industry Cost pressures are not going away.
Figure 10: Key Challenges Facing Tourism Businesses
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Investment Outlook
The proportion of businesses stating they were planning more investment over the next 12 months fell from 48% in the March quarter to 42% this quarter. Investment intentions had gradually trended higher over the year to March quarter 2025, so the decline in the proportion of operators indicating they were planning more investment is likely due to the algal bloom, flooding events and general decline in confidence. However, the Index level only fell to 125, just below the pre-COVID average of around 129.
Figure 11: Planned Investment
Percentage Quarter ended Less No change More
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Statistical Note:
The TiCSA Tourism Barometer June quarter 2025 survey was conducted online June 02 until June 09. A total of 170 responses were received, representing a margin of error of +/- 7.5% at a confidence level of 95%.
Airport Passengers
Growth in airport passenger numbers has stalled in recent quarters following strong growth after state and international borders were re-opened after the COVID period. The Adelaide Airport saw 1.81 million domestic passenger movements and 264,000 international passenger movements for a total of 2.07 million in March quarter 2025 (latest data available), broadly in line with the 2.05 million recorded in March quarter 2024. Of note, international passenger numbers remain 12% lower than the pre-COVID level.
Table 2: Adelaide Airport Quarterly Passenger Statistics
Note: Domestic movements include regional. Source: Adelaide Airport (2025)
Visitation and Expenditure
The strong rebound in domestic visitor expenditure in South Australia appears to be over, with both intrastate (down $199 million, or 6%) and interstate (down $499 million, or 12%) overnight visitor expenditure falling in the year ending March 2025. Data specific to March quarter 2025 (Table 3) show a sharp annual decline in total domestic overnight expenditure in South Australia of 23%, far above the decline nationally over the same period. The timing of Easter (which was in the March quarter 2024 but will be in the June quarter 2025), natural disasters and the continued high cost of living all likely contributed to the result.
Meanwhile, international visitor expenditure continued to grow (up $270 million, or 21%) in the year ending March 2025.
South Australia experienced the most significant decline in visitor expenditure in the March quarter compared to other states and territories.
Figure 12: Visitor Expenditure by Type, South Australia
Note: Year ending March
Source: Tourism Research Australia.
Table 3: Domestic Overnight Visitor Expenditure ($m) (March quarter 2025)
Note: March quarter 2025 data % change is from March quarter 2024 Source: Tourism Research Australia
The latest visitor data for the year ending March 2025 show declines in intrastate overnight and international visitation from the prior year, but a solid 6% increase in the high yielding interstate domestic overnight market
Visitor nights were also down amongst domestic overnight visitors, falling around 2% from the prior year. The leisure market led the declines impacted by recent environmental events and continued pressure on disposable incomes.
Table 4: Visitors and Nights by Type, South Australia (2025)
Note: Year ending March Source: Tourism Research Australia
Domestic overnight expenditure fell sharply in the year ending March 2025, with yields recording sharp declines for both intrastate and interstate domestic overnight visitors While the algal bloom and flooding events would have contributed to the headline decline in expenditure, falling yields suggest that after a period of sharp price increases, visitors are no longer able to absorb increases in travel expenses, and are cutting back on expenditure.
As demonstrated through the Barometer, recent price escalations from tourism operators have largely been due to tourism businesses increasing prices to address a range of rising business costs, rather that driving profit and yield.
After making strong gains during the COVID pandemic, South Australia has seen a continued erosion of its market share for visitation and expenditure.
Table 5: Expenditure and Yield, South Australia, by Type (YE March 2025)
Note: Market share represents the historical market share currently, for the previous year and from three/five years ago.
Source: Tourism Research Australia
Note on recent changes to tourism data
Tourism Research Australia (TRA), the national source of visitor data, has made significant changes to how it collects and analyses data. Historically, TRA conducted a large, rolling survey of both domestic and international visitors. Due to declining sample sizes and other reasons, TRA has ceased conducting these surveys.
TRA has now introduced its Domestic Tourism Statistics (DoTS) as the new collection for reporting Australian-resident travel statistics. It started on 1 January 2025, replacing the National Visitor Survey (NVS), which wound up at the end of 2024.
DoTS measures Australian-resident tourism through:
• Mobility data on travel movement;
• Overseas arrivals and departures data on Australians’ outbound travel; and
• Survey data from the new face-to-face and online DoTS Australian-resident travel surveys.
TRA have stated that the recently released DoTS data only covers domestic overnight travel for the March quarter 2025 reference period, with data to be progressively added each quarter with the first DoTS rolling annual estimates for 2025 available in March 2026. Day-trip data for March quarter 2025 will not be released until September 2025, alongside the June quarter 2025 data. TRA also stated that domestic tourism results have been back-cast at the national and state and territory levels for trips, nights and spend, providing a time series back to the year ending March 2020.
This significant change has impacted on how visitation and expenditure has traditionally been reported in the Barometer. While this disruption will continue over the next year, the new collection method should allow for more accurate and insightful data on visitation and expenditure in South Australia. The data reported above will continue to appear in the Barometer until more detailed data is available and released from TRA.
Report prepared in partnership with Lucid Economics.
Tourism Industry Council South Australia (TiCSA)
Pirie
Ph: (08) 8110 0123
Email: info@ticsa.com.au
