Predicting Capital Bikeshare Trips by Low-Income Users

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start/end points for trips on Capital Bikeshare during February and March 2017, along with demographic data from the US Census.

Summary Statistics Before creating the regression models, this analysis first looked at summary statistics for the data set. Key findings include: •

There were 471,569 trips on CaBi during February and March of 2017

Of those trips, 1,567 (or 0.03%) were by CPP members

CPP members took trips from only 192 of 439 total stations

Each CPP member in the data set took an average of 10 trips during February and March 2017, with a maximum of 112 trips by a single CPP member

93% of trips by CPP members originated in DC, compared with 6% in Virginia and only 1% in Maryland. (Fig. 1)

Fig. 1:

This analysis then compared rides by CPP members to rides by Registered members and Casual members (single-ride or one-day pass) using a series of t-tests of means to determine differences between each subset (Fig. 2). These t-tests showed that CPP members tend to take rides of longer duration, but of a shorter average distance (for all trips starting and ending in different locations) than trips taken by registered members.2 CPP riders are also more likely to start and end trips at the same station than Registered members, suggesting that they are more likely to use the system for recreation.

Distances were calculated assuming a straight line between the start and end stations, therefore these distances are not fully indicative of the actual distance traveled by the rider. Determining distance using observed GPS data from the ride in question, or as the shortest distance along the street network, would both be superior measures of distance for future studies. 2


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