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TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2020
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‘Payments crisis’ not govts fault By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A CARIBBEAN economist yesterday stuck to her forecast that The Bahamas “faces a potential balance of payments crisis” within the next two years but is arguing this will not be the government’s fault. Marla Dukharan, whose recent prediction that The Bahamas’ will suffer a sovereign debt default and be in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural adjustment programme by 2021 was rebuked as “unduly alarmist” by the Ministry of Finance, said the multiple economic pressures facing the country cannot be blamed on the government’s COVID-19 policy response. Praising the Minnis administration for its actions, she said she could recall no other Caribbean country that has had to contend with both the worst natural disaster and worst economic crisis in its history within the space of six months. “Never before has any country in the Caribbean (and maybe even globally - but please don’t quote me) had to grapple with the worst natural disaster in its history and (arguably) the worst economic crisis in its history, both within a six-month timeframe,” Ms Dukharan wrote in her analysis of the Bahamian economy that was released yesterday. “How the Government of The Bahamas has maintained a reasonable level of socio-economic stability so far, is testament to their capabilities, political will and ability to access assistance from external parties including the multilateral lending institutions. By no means could this be an easy task, and the government is certainly dealing with a lot more than many, at least in a regional context.” She said The Bahamas’ economic woes, and post-COVID-19 recovery challenges, stem from its overwhelming dependency on tourism to generate 75 percent of its export earnings and 40 percent of tax revenues. Noting that The Bahamas’ is the third most dependent country in the world on an industry that has been shut down for nine months, and is only now just re-opening, she said: “All of the above
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AG: New tax for BPC if royalties ‘abysmally low’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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HE attorney general yesterday said the government could impose a new tax on Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC) if it declines to renegotiate “abysmally low” royalty rates that are the world’s poorest. Carl Bethel QC told Tribune Business the Bahamian people were in line to receive the lowest return of any nation on their country’s potential natural resources as he blasted the former Christie administration for ignoring studies suggesting it should revise a royalty structure that was “in the pits”. Disclosing the findings of a Commonwealth Secretariat report that showed, under the present structure, the highest royalty rate BPC will pay is some 20 percentage points below the lowest rate in other jurisdictions, Mr Bethel argued that the former government missed the chance to negotiate a better deal for the Bahamian people when the leases for the oil explorer’s five licence areas came up
• Argues Bahamians short-changed by former govt • People’s returns ‘in the pits’; ‘lowest on the planet’ • Pledges to ‘renegotiate’ as explorer starts drilling
CARL BETHEL QC
SIMON POTTER
for renewal in 2015. Instead of renegotiating higher royalty rates for the benefit of the Public Treasury and proposed Sovereign Wealth Fund, Mr Bethel said his predecessors left the structure that has existed from 2007 to the present day untouched and only increased the seabed lease rates for those five areas from $57,500 to $250,000. The attorney general then argued that the former Christie administration compounded that error by allowing the royalty rates to be based “on the net value
of extracted petroleum”, which is the value after BPC has deducted all its production and investment costs. This, Mr Bethel said, would have left the government and Bahamian people at the mercy of BPC’s accountants and external auditors to determine this nation’s share from the potential extraction of its natural resources as they would be responsible for certifying the company’s production and investment costs. He added that basing royalties on the “net petroleum
THE Ministry of Finance’s top official yesterday argued that the imminent web shop patron winnings tax is a levy “on a specific type of game” rather than an attempt to discriminate against Bahamians. Marlon Johnson, the Ministry of Finance’s acting financial secretary, pushed back against arguments that the new tax - which is set to be imposed on the winnings of web shop patrons from New Year’s Day - is discriminatory because it only applies to Bahamians while foreign casino gamblers pay nothing of this nature at all. “The tax is a tax on a specific type of game. The lottery game; three-ball, four-ball, five-ball,” he told a press conference on the just-released Fiscal Strategy Report, adding that such a
value” was also contrary to global best practice as most oil producing countries base their share on “gross tax at the well head” in their agreements with private companies to ensure they get a better return. Mr Bethel spoke out after BPC yesterday hailed the start of drilling for its Perseverance One well in waters 90 miles west of Andros. With the legal challenge to their plans from environmental activists seemingly stalled, at least temporarily, while a judge and hearing date is sought, the oil explorer confirmed its Stena IceMAX drill ship is proceeding apace. With drilling of the well said to have begun at 6.30am on Sunday morning, targeting a “potential reserve” of between 0.77 and 1.44bn barrels of oil over a 45-60 day period, Simon Potter, BPC’s chief executive, said: “The well has been spud. “This is a momentous
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‘Taxing’ to hit $100m govt spending cuts
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
THE Ministry of Finance’s top official yesterday admitted it will be hard-pressed to achieve the $100m in recurrent spending cuts it is targeting over the next six months, conceding: “It will be very taxing.” Marlon Johnson, responding to Tribune Business queries at a press conference on the newlyreleased Fiscal Strategy Report, conceded that such savings will be hard to achieve because the government’s 2020-2021 budget had already been “scaled back” to cope with the slump in tax revenues produced by COVID-19. Disclosing that Ministry of Finance officials and analysts were inspecting the budget “with a microscope” to detect areas where expenses can be slashed, Mr Johnson said the government’s
• Ministry using ‘microscope’ to find savings • Minister pledges ‘no plans to raise taxes’ • But studies eyed on ‘progressive’ options
MARLON JOHNSON
SEN KWASI THOMPSON
permanent secretaries - the civil servants in charge of its ministries - and other top executives all “understand the precariousness of where we are”. Describing the search for recurrent spending cuts as “a work that’s in progress”, Mr Johnson said the Ministry of Finance was
working with all ministries, departments and agencies to target areas such as “discretionary programmes and subventions to state-owned enterprises” for cutbacks. “We’re really going through that with a microscope to see what can be postponed and deferred,” he replied to this newspaper.
Patron winnings tax ‘on a game, not Bahamians’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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• Top official argues levy non-discriminatory • Argues web shops had sufficient warning • ‘Don’t start New Year with COVID spike’ tax would also be imposed on casino patron winnings if that industry introduced such a game. “It’s not a tax on Bahamians versus foreigners. It’s a tax on a type of game,” Mr Johnson repeated. Few observers, especially the domestic (web shop) gaming sector and its patrons, are likely to be reassured or convinced by the acting financial secretary’s stance, though. And his comments were earlier this week directly contradicted by Carl Bethel QC, the attorney general, who told other news media that the casinos were being spared from a patron winnings-style tax because they are critical to a tourism
industry that generates thousands of jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in economic activity, and is the country’s biggest foreign exchange and tax revenue earner. Suggesting that the web shop industry’s economic contribution is much smaller, and that it effectively redistributes wealth from the many to the few, Mr Bethel was quoted as saying: “Their [the casinos’] presence creates thousands of jobs for Bahamians in the tourism sector. “In short, the casinos make a far greater contribution to employment and economic activity throughout the Bahamian economy than gaming houses. This is
why the taxation in casinos is where it is.” Mr Johnson, meanwhile, also yesterday rejected the web shop industry’s assertions that it has been given insufficient warning to properly roll-out the patron winnings tax from New Year’s Day. Arguing that the sector had known from last year that the levy was coming, he said: “As far as I understand, this actual tax structure was negotiated with the gaming houses back in 2019. They were aware of the tax for over a year, were aware of what it meant, they were consulted and there were discussions.
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“It is very taxing given that we start with a scaled back budget. My permanent secretary colleagues understand the precariousness of where we are.” Senator Kwasi Thompson, the newly-appointed minister of state for finance, in unveiling last week’s Fiscal Strategy Report, said the government was seeking $200m worth of spending cuts - some $100m on the recurrent side, and a matching $100m reduction on capital expenditure - to ensure it met the 2020-2021 budget’s $1.327bn deficit target. He explained that the cuts were necessary because of some $75.8m in previously
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$3.98 Loan delinquencies up $92m as tourism arrivals totally dry-up By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net MORTGAGE and consumer loan delinquencies soared by $91.8m in two months as tourist arrivals to The Bahamas dropped 98.4 percent year-over-year for October, the Central Bank has revealed. The latest grim economic data from the regulator’s report on November’s developments, while not surprising, further exposes the extent of the devastation inflicted by COVID-19 with many Bahamian households and individuals unable to meet their debt servicing obligations after loan deferral initiatives came to an end. Mortgage loan delinquencies increased by a further $37.4m during November, although their consumer equivalent actually dropped by $3.6m. When added to the $58m rise in mortgage and consumer loan delinquencies from the previous month, this contributed to a more than $90m jump in a 61-day period. “Banks’ credit quality indicators deteriorated during the month of November, reflecting a rise in short-term delinquencies, attributed to the negative effects from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, total private sector arrears grew by $45m (six percent) to $796.2m, elevating the relevant ratio by 80 basis points to 14.2 percent,” the Central Bank said. “An analysis by average age of delinquency revealed that short-term arrears (31-90 days) rose by $43.3m (15.3 percent) to $325.7m, as the corresponding ratio rose by 77 basis points to 5.8 percent. Similarly, nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased by $1.6m (0.4 percent) to $470.6m, resulting in a 32 basis point rise in its accompanying ratio to 8.4 percent. “A breakdown by loan category showed that the growth in short-term arrears was led by mortgage delinquencies, which expanded by $37.4m (8.5 percent) to $476m, as the $41.3m (25.7 percent) rise in the shortterm segment outstripped the $3.9m (1.4 percent) fall-off in non-performing loans,” the Central Bank added. “Similarly, commercial arrears rose by $11.1m (17.6 percent) to $74.5m, with both the short-term and the non-accrual components
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