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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2023
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Deficits overwhelm growth six-fold in driving debt hike By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net WEAK economic growth has been overwhelmed by the six-fold greater impact of surging fiscal deficits and failed to keep The Bahamas’ debt ratios in check, a multilateral lender is asserting. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in its latest Caribbean quarterly bulletin focusing on the region’s debt issues, unveiled an analysis which showed the average 1 percent annual economic growth rate The Bahamas has achieved this century has only been able to shave five percentage points off the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. In contrast, the Government’s recurring primary deficits, which measure by how much its total noninterest spending exceeds revenue income, have had six times’ greater impact
t -PX (%1 DVUTùKVTU QUT PGG EFCU SBUJP JO ZFBST t *%# %FmDJUT BEE QUT UP NBLFùATIBSQ DPOUSBTU t &YQPTFT XIZ (PW U QVTIJOH GPS SBQJE EFmDJUT FOE by adding 30 percentage points to the Bahamian debt-to-GDP ratio over the past 20 years. The “cost of debt”, meaning interest payments made to lenders to service the principal amount, was said by the IDB to have added a further 41 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio during the past two decades. The data explains why the Davis administration is so urgently, and rapidly, seeking to eliminate the long-standing annual deficit by generating a fiscal
surplus in its 2024-2025 Budget year. The Bahamas’ debtto-GDP ratio, which measures the size of the national debt compared to that of the economy and its output, started to accelerate upwards when the 2008-2009 financial crisis struck, and the IDB identified the principal culprits as weak economic growth and persistently elevated fiscal deficits. “In terms of (real) GDP growth, in line with the trend of other high-income Caribbean countries, The
Bahamas experienced a deceleration of economic growth from 2009 onward - from 2.5 percent in the 1990s to around 1 percent in the 2000s and 2010s,” the IDB report said, acknowledging that losses and damage caused by major hurricanes was a key factor. “At the same time, revenues underperformed, and current expenditures have been downwardly sticky. These persistent deficits significantly increased the country’s vulnerability to unexpected shocks, as the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 demonstrated,” it added. “Net debt-increasing flows are large and are composed of two main drivers - the cost of debt, which has added 40 percentage points to the (debt-to-GDP) ratio since 2004 followed by the primary balance, which has
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FTX settlement ‘proves naysayers were wrong’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE FTX settlement shows The Bahamas has “beaten expectations” and “proven the doom and gloom naysayers wrong” over the crypto exchange’s collapse, a well-known businessman argued yesterday. Sir Franklyn Wilson, the Arawak Homes and Sunshine Holdings chairman, told Tribune Business that the agreement struck between FTX’s Bahamian liquidators and their US counterparts demonstrates that this nation is “a serious” and “fit and proper
SIR FRANKLYN WILSON jurisdiction” for financial services, digital assets and dealing with complex crossborder insolvencies. Disclosing that, in the aftermath of FTX’s November 2022 implosion, there
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URCA proposes 20% expansion in budget By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Utilities Regulation and Competition Authority (URCA) is for the second consecutive year proposing a major hike in its operating budget via a near-20 percent increase for 2024. The communications and energy sector regulator, unveiling its 2024 annual plan for public consultation, produced a budget showing a more than $1.5m increase in planned operational spending to $9.221m as opposed to $7.692m for this calendar year. To cover these costs, it will rely on a similar-sized
19.5 percent jump in fee income obtained via statutory levies on its licensees, such as the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC, Cable Bahamas/ Aliv and Bahamas Power & Light (BPL). It is forecasting that total fee income will also rise by $1.5m to $9.517m in 2024 as opposed to 2023’s projected $7.967m. The increased fee burden is unlikely to sit well with URCA’s licensees given that the 2024 expansion of the regulator’s operating budget follows last year’s even greater 23 percent growth. That produced a negative reaction and, over a two-year period, URCA’s
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Total $1.4bn SOE debts pose ‘a significant risk’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net TOTAL debts owed by the Government’s stateowned enterprises (SOEs) have hit $1.4bn to become “a significant risk” by exceeding 10 percent of annual economic output, the IDB has warned. The multilateral lender, in its latest quarterly Caribbean quarterly bulletin that focused on the region’s debt issues, voiced particular concern about SOE debt that is not guaranteed by the Government given that taxpayer subsidies to these entities have increased especially following the COVID-19 pandemic. While government and SOE debt cross-holdings provide some modest mitigation, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)” said the financial demands imposed by the likes of the Public Hospitals Authority (PHA), Bahamasair and Water & Sewerage Corporation are among three “key factors” it identified as
influencing The Bahamas’ overall “debt stock”. “Contingent liabilities are another key aspect of public debt in The Bahamas,” the IDB report said. “The total debt of stateowned enterprises (SOEs) and other government agencies reached $1.39bn or 10.1 percent of GDP at the end of the 2023 second quarter as the pandemic raised financing needs for some of these entities. “Adding the total debt from SOEs to central government debt increases the public debt-to-GDP ratio from 82.1 percent to 92.3 percent of GDP. However, since the central government holds debt from these SOEs and some of them also possess central government debt, the consolidated public debt-to-GDP ratio declines to 87.7% percent of GDP. “While the debt-to-GDP ratio of SOEs has decreased over the last four years, the share of non-guaranteed debt is still a significant source of risk, particularly
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