business@tribunemedia.net
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2020
$3.98 $580m developer urged to reassess cost projections By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net ENVIRONMENTAL activists yesterday urged the developer behind the proposed $580m south Abaco resort project to “re-evaluate his costs” due to labour and material price spikes cause by Hurricane Dorian. Cindy Pinder, of the Sustainable South Abaco group, told Tribune Business that “things have changed so much” since Ra’anan “Ronnie” BenZur, the principal behind the Tyrsoz Family Holdings development, first conceived of and put together his project. Speaking from her own personal experience about the impact labour and material shortages have had on construction prices for Dorian’s rebuilding, Ms Pinder recalled how a friend was charged $12,000 to paint a 2,000 square foot interior space. And, to put roofs on a one-two bed home, and three-unit office space, she said she was personally quoted $30,000 for labour alone. “I think he need to reevaluate his plans, his timelines, his costs. His costs are going to go way up,” she said of Mr BenZur. “We have a lot of concerns with his ability to pull this off as a developer. He’s never done anything like this before. He’s done projects renovating existing hotels, which are very different to coming out to the woods where there is nothing and trying to make something.... “We’re afraid of failure and he’s talking really big numbers. We are not against development that is environmentally favourable or friendly, but he’s chosen one of the most sensitive areas on the entire island of Abaco... “The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) as a whole has a tremendous amount of gaps and issues that should be addressed and haven’t been addressed. Ronnie is saying he wants to be environmentally friendly but there’s going to have to be a lot of mitigation for what he wants to do.” Ms Pinder spoke after the Sustainable South Abaco coalition held a Zoom meeting with Mr Ben-Zur to discuss the project, the outcome of which appears not to have eased their concerns. The group has engaged various environmental experts and scientists to review the EIA
SEE PAGE 4
$3.98
Aviation ‘cutting edge’ targeted for early 2021 By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
A
CABINET minister is aiming to bring a reform package that will keep The Bahamas on aviation’s “cutting edge”, and improve its global regulatory standing, to Parliament in the 2021 first quarter. Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, yesterday told Tribune Business the threestrong group of Bills - one of which will repeal the present Civil Aviation Act 2016 - were critical to The Bahamas’ ambitions of launching a true aircraft registry. Asserting that they will replace a “quite cumbersome” regulatory regime that has made it difficult to keep up with frequent regulatory changes made by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), the global industry overseer, Mr D’Aguilar said it was becoming increasingly urgent that the trio of Bills be enacted into law. This is because The Bahamas’ civil aviation safety and oversight regime is set to undergo another ICAO
• Minister aims to bring three-Bill package to House • Urgency growing ahead of next year’s ICAO audit • Major upgrade needed for aircraft registry ambition
DIONISIO D’AGUILAR evaluation in November 2021, and the assessors will want enough time to have passed between the Bills’ enactment and their visit to determine whether their provisions have been “implemented effectively”. The Bahamas is desperate to improve upon the results of its last ICAO audit, where it was found to have only properly implemented 32 percent of the “critical elements of a safety oversight system” for the aviation industry in this country, and Mr D’Aguilar acknowledged that a much better showing was vital to the country
realising its aircraft registry aspirations. Besides the upgraded Civil Aviation Bill, the other two pieces of legislation that will be brought to Parliament are The Bahamas Air Navigation Services (BANS) Authority Bill, which attempts to further separate regulator and operations by breaking out the air traffic controllers from the Civil Aviation Department and Authority, plus the Civil Aviation Authority Bill. The latter, Mr D’Aguilar explained, will define the Civil Aviation Authority’s organisational structure and set-up as the sector regulator, as well as “how it operates and codifying in law” the oversight functions it currently performs. Confirming that drafting work on the Bills was “done”, he added that they now needed to be presented to, and approved by, the Minnis Cabinet before making it on to the House of Assembly’s legislative agenda. “It’s close.
OIL exploration royalties collected by The Bahamas’ sovereign wealth fund could be used to finance spill/ pollution clean-up from the very same activities, environmental activists are warning. An analysis produced for the Our Islands, Our Future coalition argues that the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act’s language effectively permits royalties generated by commercial oil production to be used to finance remediation of the same industry’s most harmful effects, thereby undermining the fund’s main goal of building wealth to benefit future generations of Bahamians. The report, by Sea Change Economics, pointed to the Act’s “exceptional withdrawals from fund” clause, which would allow
Hopefully we will get it on the agenda in the first quarter of next year,” Mr D’Aguilar said. Explaining the BANS Bill’s merits, he added that “ICAO rules suggest strongly” that the roles of aviation regulator not be mixed with operational functions such as air traffic control given the potential for conflicts of interest. Thus the air traffic controllers will be established as a separate entity. As for the Civil Aviation Act’s repeal and replacement by the new version, Mr D’Aguilar said the intention was to enable The Bahamas to keep pace with ICAO’s changes to international rules by enabling the country to implement these reforms via regulations as opposed to having to go back to Parliament every time to change the Act. “ICAO has made some amendments and upgrades that are too cumbersome
SEE PAGE 5
‘True fall-out’: Household loan defaults grow $58m By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net MORTGAGE and consumer loan delinquencies increased by $58m during October 2020 with a senior banker warning it may take five to seven years to recover from COVID-19’s “true fall-out”. Gowon Bowe, pictured, Fidelity Bank (Bahamas) chief executive, speaking as the Central Bank unveiled data exposing the extent of households’ inability to meet their obligations as payment deferrals come to an end, said the October data represented neither “the beginning” nor “the end” for commercial banks and their borrowers. With the sector’s “end game” focused on “how we manage our loan portfolios to get to the other side”, Mr Bowe said Bahamas-based institutions were now likely facing a similar scenario to the 2008-2009 financial crisis and subsequent recession
• Top banker warns of 5-7 year recovery • October rise ‘neither start nor the end’ • Every payment missed adds 3 months
when it took some borrowers between six to seven years to recover and get back on track with their repayments. Revealing that the banking industry’s “rule” is that every month of missed repayments adds the equivalent of three months to a loan’s life, the Fidelity chief said persons who have been sent home from March
through to now - and with no sign of being recalled to work - are already looking at more than two years before they can catch up. Mr Bowe spoke out after the Central Bank’s report on October’s monthly economic developments, released yesterday, revealed that total loan arrears among Bahamian businesses and households rose by a net $51.4m during that month. The impact was most pronounced for households and individuals, as combined residential mortgage and personal loan delinquencies rose by a collective $57.8m during October. The total arrears increase was slightly less, though, due to a reduction in outstanding “bad” credit owed by businesses.
Sovereign wealth ‘backstop’ for oil exploration fall-out By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
$3.92
• Activists: Fund ‘insurance’ for clean-up • Say defeats Bahamian wealth-building • Cite inequality examples in govt warning the Central Bank to withdraw from the Bahamian sovereign wealth fund an amount beyond the annual limits set for any given financial year. The “exceptional circumstances” justifying such a move include “devastation caused by man-made natural disasters”, a definition that Sea Change Economics said would almost certainly include any major oil spill or pollution-related incident if one were to occur as a result of future Bahamas-based production. As a result, the economists contracted by Our Islands, Our Future argued that The Bahamas’ sovereign wealth fund could ultimately be used as a form of “insurance” in a
worst-case scenario that cuts across its main objective. Noting that the Act was passed at the same time as upgrades to The Bahamas’ petroleum industry regulatory regime, designed to facilitate Bahamas Petroleum Company’s (BPC) activities, the Sea Change Economics report said: “The Act does define ‘exceptional circumstances’ that will allow for additional withdrawals from the fund over the regular specified limit. “Interestingly, the very first of these exceptional circumstances include ‘man-made environmental disasters or natural disasters’, which would almost certainly include oil spills. Because the intended source
of revenue to this fund is the revenue received from offshore oil extraction, this would almost seem to structure this fund as additional insurance to The Bahamas, as funds that came from oil could be used in the event of an oil disaster. “Unfortunately, this framing would also erode the intended use of this very fund, with payments intended for future generations instead being used as an emergency back-stop.” Tribune Business’ own review of the Act confirmed the existence of the language referred to in the report, which also questioned whether the
SEE PAGE 6
“Banks’ credit quality indicators weakened during the month of October, underpinned by a rise in short-term delinquencies due to the adverse effects stemming from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” the Central Bank said. “Total private sector arrears rose by $51.4m (7.4 percent) to $748.7m, elevating the corresponding ratio by 99 basis points to 13.3 percent. “Across the major claims categories, mortgage delinquencies advanced by $39m (9.8 percent) to $438.6m, as both the short and long-term components rose by $36.4m (29.3 percent) and by $2.6m (one percent), respectively. “Similarly, consumer arrears grew by $18.8m (8.3
SEE PAGE 6
$3.95 Nassau’s tourism arrivals see 99% September drop By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net TOURISM arrivals almost totally dried up in September 2020 due to COVID-19 lockdowns and border restrictions, falling by 98.6 percent against a prior year comparative that contained Hurricane Dorian. The Central Bank’s monthly economic developments report for October 2020, released yesterday, confirmed the “virtual absence” of air and sea visitors in what is traditionally the weakest month in the tourism calendar as it coincides with the peak of hurricane season. The Family Islands were said to have enjoyed an “incrementally better experience” relative to New Providence, with the Central Bank disclosing: “In New Providence, arrivals matched less than one percent of the previous year’s outcome, with only a slightly better outcome for Grand Bahama. “However, Grand Bahama’ air arrivals reached 28.2 percent of the 2019 levels. For the Family Islands, the air arrivals matched 39.6 percent of last year’s results, although weighed down by the absence of cruise traffic, total arrivals were at only 3.1 percent of the 2019 volumes.” Turning to an assessment of the year’s first nine months, the Central Bank added: “On a year-to-date basis, activity remained contracted, as total foreign arrivals reduced by 68 percent vis-à-vis a 10.5 percent growth during the same period last year. “Underpinning this outturn, air arrivals declined by 72.4 percent following a gain of 11.6 percent in the previous year, while sea visitors fell by 66.6 percent relative to a 10.1 percent advance in 2019. “In terms of traffic through the country’s main gateway, data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) revealed that total international departures fell to 4,794 passengers during the month of October, overturning the 1.7 percent uptick to 91,115 a year earlier. “On a year-to-date basis, total foreign departures declined significantly by 71.7 percent, a reversal from the 14.2 percent expansion in the prior year. By region, the US component, which is higher by volume,
SEE PAGE 6