11272019 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2019

$4.56 Debt ratio forecasts are ‘overly optimistic’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net FISCAL observers yesterday warned that projections showing The Bahamas’ debt ratios will be kept in check are “very optimistic” given that this requires surpluses three times’ higher than achieved before. Robert Myers, the Organisation for Responsible Governance’s (ORG) principal, told Tribune Business that estimates forecasting the Government will run ninefigure primary surpluses from 2022-2023 onwards would likely be challenged by a hurricane or global economic recession. The government’s justpublished Fiscal Strategy Report projects that the primary budget balance, which measures by how much revenue exceeds/falls short of non-interest recurrent spending, will move back into a $76.7m surplus in 2021-2022 following two years of deficits that peak at over $300m due to Hurricane Dorian restoration costs. These surpluses are forecast to increase to $159.2m in 2022-2023, then grow to $278.2m the following year and $313.3m come 20242025. However, Mr Myers said the latter figure was almost three times’ higher than the $116.9m surplus achieved in 2018-2019, raising doubts as to whether the government’s projections will be met. “You’re talking $300m for each of those years,” he told Tribune Business. “You’re talking about creating a primary surplus three times’ what they’ve proven they’ve been able to achieve. That’s pretty tough, and also doesn’t seem to take into consideration any downside risks in the global economy and environmental landscape. “I think it’s overly optimistic personally, but I’m not looking at the nitty gritty. If there’s no risk contingencies built in they are highly optimistic.” Recent history suggests that The Bahamas, which has been struck by major hurricanes in four of the last five years, will likely encounter at least one major storm during the next five years. Mr Myers pointed out that the prospects of a correction in the global economy were also reasonable given that there has been no major global recession since 2008-2009, while high crime levels, the raised cost of doing business and impairments to the ease of doing business all represented further threats to the government’s fiscal outlook. The Fiscal Strategy Report makes clear that the

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‘Taking Nassau from 1.0 to 10.0’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

B

AHAMIAN institutional investors will be invited to raise 40-50 percent of the cruise port’s $100m bridge financing facility, with its developer pledging yesterday: “We’re taking Nassau from 1.0 to 10.0.” Michael Maura, Nassau Cruise Port’s chief executive, told Tribune Business that its ultimate parent wanted Prince George Wharf’s $250m transformation to be its “signature” product and “most fantastic experience and product” out of all the 16 other ports it owns and manages worldwide”. Revealing that Global Ports Holding is not aiming

ANTHONY FERGUSON

just to “go from Nassau 1.0 to Nassau 2.0” with the cruise port’s conversion to a destination product, Mr Maura confirmed that its Bahamian subsidiary - of which it owns 49 percent

- is currently in the market to raise the necessary funding to kickstart construction work early in the New Year. “The chairman of Global Ports [Mehmet Kutman] wants this to be the most

NASSAU cruise port’s operator is aiming to “double the yield” from passenger spending once the facility’s transformation into a destination product is completed by the 2022 first quarter. Michael Maura, Nassau Cruise Port Ltd’s chief executive, told Tribune Business yesterday that “millions of dollars” have already been invested in the design, engineering and environmental studies that will lay the foundation for Prince George Wharf’s overhaul over a 24-month period. Detailing a series of

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• Operator aims to ‘double’ spending yields • Says project ‘game changer’ for Bay Street • Will lure residents, Atlantis and Baha Mar guests construction milestones that are critical to revitalising the main gateway to The Bahamas for some 3.5m cruise passengers annually, Mr Maura predicted that the project would be a “game changer” for the wider Bay Street and downtown Nassau area. He said the waterfront’s revival would deliver a sufficiently strong product to entice Atlantis and Baha Mar guests, as well as Bahamians and residents, back to the downtown area to enjoy

live entertainment, an interactive Junkanoo experience, and improved retail and food and beverage offerings centred on “authentically” local products. Emphasising that the cruise port’s retail offering will seek to complement, rather than compete with, Bay Street merchants, Mr Maura said Nassau Cruise Port and its 49 percent owner, Global Ports Holding, were also working closely with stakeholders such as the taxi drivers to

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

bring order and discipline to call-up systems so that all gained a fair share of the tourist trade. Confirming that the 2022 first quarter is “the target” for construction completion, Mr Maura said Nassau was on the “front line” of the global cruise industry’s rapid expansion and needed to improve its product to attract higherspending passengers for the benefit of Bahamian-owned

fantastic experience and product that he has done to date,” the Nassau Cruise Port chief said. “It’s his signature. He’s not holding back. If you were at dinner last night to see some of the stuff he’s got planned for this thing you wouldn’t believe it. “It will cause people to hop on the plane to Nassau. We’re not going from Nassau 1.0 to Nassau 2.0. We’re going from Nassau 1.0 to Nassau 10.0.” Anthony Ferguson, CFAL’s (the former Colina Financial Advisors) principal, told this newspaper

$250m cruise port overhaul targets Q1 2022 completion By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Govt debt trading on BISX misses target start date THE Central Bank’s governor yesterday expressed optimism that the trading of central government debt on BISX will begin before year-end despite the initial November deadline being missed. John Rolle told Tribune Business he was “absolutely” confident this will happen before 2019 closes, saying: “I know that the process is virtually complete. There are just one or two technical questions around the pricing methodology where we’ve committed to share some information. “From a technical point of view we’ve completed the process, so it’s very close to happening. We will certainly be ready to move in that direction. We don’t anticipate there would be any issues with the relationship with the market in terms of getting started. The intent is that everything would be listed; all bonds would be listed.” The Bahamas International Securities Exchange’s (BISX) 20-year effort to have more than $3bn in government bonds listed and traded over the exchange moved closer to conclusion earlier this year after itself, the government and Central Bank unveiled a partnership to make this happen by November 2019. However, Tribune Business understands that this deadline is likely to be missed. Keith Davies, BISX’s chief executive, told this newspaper: “We look forward to receiving whatever information is necessary for us to move ahead. BISX has

• Cruise port to be operator’s ‘signature’ project • Bahamian firms to participate in $40m-$50m bridge • Eventual equity placing targets $35m from ‘20k-plus’

MICHAEL MAURA

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‘Robust’ Thanksgiving from 90k LPIA arrivals By YOURI KEMP and NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Reporters A CABINET minister yesterday voiced optimism for a “robust” Thanksgiving and Christmas tourism season after 90,000 persons moved through Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA) last week. Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, speaking ahead of the weekly Cabinet meeting, said: “We are expecting an extremely busy Thanksgiving period. The hotels are all reporting they are going to have a robust Thanksgiving. “Fortunately a lot of reservations were made prior to Dorian, and the visitors have decided to maintain most of them. You would have seen that the airport is

• Customs confirms 50% increase - with different data • US issues ill-timed, unchanged travel warning • Minister hopes for GB airport re-open this week

DIONISIO D’AGUILAR recording record numbers. I think about 90,000 persons have moved through that airport from Wednesday to Monday. So it’s going to be, as usual, busy in our key destinations.”

However, Bahamas Customs - while acknowledging that there had been a recent 50 percent year-over-year arrivals increase at LPIA - gave Tribune Business slightly different statistics compared to those provided by Mr D’Aguilar. Livingston Ferguson, chief Customs revenue officer at LPIA, said the arrival figures for the dates Mr D’Aguilar was quoting last week - from Wednesday, November 20, to Monday, November 25 were only 25,257. He added: “If we were to include the dates from Friday, November 15, to

Monday, November 25, it would be 67,411. We have been seeing a lot of traffic through the LPIA this year.” Mr Ferguson said that for the same period in 2018 total arrivals were 44,920, a difference of 22,491. Mr D’Aguilar’s comments came as the US issued an updated travel advisory on The Bahamas that appeared to be virtually identical to the last one it released. This nation remains flagged as a “Level 2” country where US citizens are told to “exercise increased caution in the Bahamas due to crime”. While this is unchanged from the prior one, its

release could not have been worse-timed for The Bahamas given that it coincides with the Thanksgiving weekend and the start of the peak Christmas tourism season. It has also been issued just as this nation continues to shrugoff the negative publicity and fall-out associated with Hurricane Dorian. Mr D’Aguilar declined to comment when contacted by Tribune Business other than to agree that the timing was “so sensitive” and to question why the US State Department was issuing another such advisory. The latest missive repeats previous warnings to “exercise caution” at Arawak Cay’s Fish Fry, especially at night, and for US citizens who account for around 83

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