09182019 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2019

$4.50 Ex-BCA chief warns over Dorian rebuild ‘recipe for disaster’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A FORMER Bahamian Contractors Association (BCA) president yesterday warned against “draconian measures” post-Dorian that could increase building costs by between ten to 20 percent. Stephen Wrinkle told Tribune Business that the government should instead focus on “low hanging fruit”, such as enforcement of the existing Bahamas Building Code and implementation of the Construction Contractors Act, before making major regulatory changes that could “inhibit” the industry and wider economy. In particular, he warned that the failure to implement an Act that will introduce a licensing and certification regime for Bahamian contractors was a potential “recipe for disaster” for the post-Dorian reconstruction process. Without such a self-regulatory system in place, Mr Wrinkle voiced fears that the “mammoth” rebuilding effort in Abaco especially could be compromised because there would be no control over the participation of unqualified contractors in the process. Acknowledging that the severity of the destruction would inevitably spark discussions about Building Code reforms and increase construction costs for current and future new-builds, the ex-BCA chief said The Bahamas needed to examine what was “feasible” and strike a balance that did not price homeowners and developers out of the market. “It’s going to make it more expensive, no question about it,” Mr Wrinkle said of Dorian’s construction industry fall-out. “I think further study is going to be required on that to see which buildings there was a tremendous amount of devastation, we know - but some withstood better than others. It maybe that some information can be gained from that before we make a decision. “We’re going to have to look at our structures, adherence to the existing code because a lot of people don’t do that, and improving the code in a feasible manner. It’s a difficult situation, but we’re undoubtedly going to have more hurricanes. “The cost of living in hurricane zones is going to get a little more expensive, and when the wind blows at 200 miles per hour I’m not sure what structure could stand up to that.”

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No ‘new or raised taxes’ from Dorian By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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HE deputy prime minister yesterday said there are no plans for new or increased taxes to finance Dorian rebuilding “at this point”, adding: “That is not part of the discussion.” KP Turnquest told Tribune Business that the government had yet “to exhaust all our options” other than taxes for funding a restoration effort that will cost several hundred million, if not billions, of dollars. Confirming that the government will “likely” have to draw down on the entire $100m Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) emergency credit line, Mr Turnquest said The

• DPM: ‘Other options not exhausted’ • But impossible to delay rebuilding • GB and Abaco some 15-20% of GDP • Dorian creates ‘multi-year’ fiscal issues

KP TURNQUEST

Bahamas did “not have the option” of delaying postDorian recovery given the importance of Grand Bahama and Abaco to the overall economy. Estimating that the two island combined generate up to 20 percent of annual Bahamian gross domestic product (GDP), he added that the loss of this output was likely to cost the government some $200m in projected revenue for the 2019-2020 fiscal year (see other article on Page 1B). Mr Turnquest said the magnitude of the government’s revenue loss would

depend on how quickly both islands’ economies were restored, with the Ministry of Finance currently assessing how it can re-purpose alreadyallocated budget financing to Dorian recovery efforts. Conceding that the severity of Dorian’s destruction had dealt “a multi-year” blow to the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts, the deputy prime minister said it would seek to rebalance rebuilding needs with “containing any extraordinary expenditure”.

THE Central Bank yesterday said its plan to end the Bahamian one-cent coin’s use as legal tender by end-2020 will save itself and the banking system $7m over a ten-year period. The regulator, unveiling its rationale for ending the coin’s 54-year history as a means of payment, said it had lost 90 percent of its purchasing power and was “increasingly rarely used” in commercial transactions by the Bahamian public. With a survey showing that just 52 percent of

regulator is estimating that its withdrawal as legal tender will result in annual cost savings of between $800,000 to $1m. Recalling the coin’s introduction in 1966, the Central Bank said: “In over 50 years of circulation, the onecent coin has lost around 90 percent of its purchasing power, while the cost of its production and administration grew in line with inflation and now exceeds

BTC lowers roaming agreement period on restoration ‘pick-up’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

its face value. “The current value of these coins is so small that essentially no goods or services can be purchased with them. The only remaining utility of these coins is to give change in larger payment transactions. “Once the coins are given to the consumers as change, they are rarely used in subsequent transactions, which

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• Central Bank: Will save $7m over ten years • Says costs of use outweigh the benefits • 215m coins will be withdrawn persons use the one-cent coin to pay for goods and services, and the use of electronic payment methods such as debit cards and wire transfers becoming increasingly popular, the Central Bank argued the costs of maintaining it as legal tender outweigh the benefits. With businesses and banks incurring handling and processing costs greater than the one-cent coin’s value, the banking industry

GARFIELD SINCLAIR

THE Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) yesterday said it is no longer pursuing 30 days free roaming for Abaco and Grand Bahama subscribers because restoration has “picked up in earnest”. Garfield “Garry” Sinclair, BTC’s chief executive, told Tribune Business that the carrier now expected to restore an “adequate level of service” to Grand Bahama clients within the next 14 days as it seeks to rebuild its network to withstand future Dorian-strength storms. Pledging that BTC, together with its parent, contractors and vendors, was “going flat out” to restore its network and services throughout the two Dorianravaged islands, Mr Sinclair said coverage had improved to “more than 50 percent availability” in Freeport and West End. Revealing that Dorian had “taught us a lot”, Mr Sinclair said among the lessons learned was the need to provide back-up generators at all cell tower sites and “bury” its aerial transmission and fibre network in the ground to protect it from high winds and storm surges. The BTC chief, explaining that both its subscribers and Aliv’s were still able

One-cent coin use to cease by end-2020 By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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Govt in $200m dorian shortfall By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE government likely faces a $200m revenue shortfall as a result of Hurricane Dorian’s devastation, the deputy prime minister revealed yesterday. KP Turnquest said the category five storm had inflicted a “not insignificant loss to the economy” given that the two islands it decimated - Abaco and Grand Bahama - together account for between 15-20 percent of Bahamian gross domestic product (GDP). “Our initial projected estimates on revenue shortfall is around $200m, but we are still in the process of finalising those numbers.

• DPM hopes reconstruction offsets tourism loss • Civil service lump sum payment ‘on hold’ Grand Bahama and Abaco represent somewhere between 15 percent and 20 percent of our GDP, so this is not an insignificant loss to the economy.” The government’s $2.626bn revenue projection for the 2019-2020 fiscal year now faces being cut to around $2.426bn, with such a loss increasing the fiscal deficit - the extent to which government spending exceeds revenue - to around $300m by itself. Increased public spending and borrowing to finance Dorian

reconstruction will likely add several hundred million more to the deficit, but Mr Turnquest countered: “Hopefully the reconstruction, and the inflows of insurance proceeds and people putting to work to rebuild the economy, hopefully that would offset the tourism losses we expect. “Obviously this event would have thrown the budget off, so we do have to come back with a revised plan. The Fiscal Responsibility Act requires us to come in November with our fiscal

projection and outlook for the next budget season. “So we will make whatever necessary adjustments during that time. Then, when we come back to Parliament to present that revised report in January or early February, we will be able to outline exactly what has happened, what the effect has been and how we intend to adjust our fiscal outlook going forward, to account for it and to get us back on track.” When asked about the promised $800 lump sum payment that

the government had promised to pay to civil servants at end-August, Mr Turnquest said: “We are still considering it, and what we can comfortably fit in with our window. “As you all know this is a significant unexpected event for the government, so we have to make sure we properly budget and consider all of the ramifications for our expenditure over the next couple of months for sure. “Until we have determined, and been able to put concrete numbers to what our outlook is going to look like, at the moment it’s on hold and we see how we can adjust it maybe looking towards the end of the year to fit it in.”


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