08162019 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

FRIDAY, AUGUST 16, 2019

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DPM: Union pay talks a ‘fly in fiscal ointment’

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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UBLIC sector pay negotiations are a potential “fly in the ointment” that may cause the government to miss its one percent deficit target for 2019-2020, the deputy prime minister warned yesterday. KP Turnquest told Tribune Business that the “active union negotiating season” represented an unknown “that can throw you out” in terms of fiscal projections depending on the salary arrangements agreed with public sector worker representatives.

• Could ‘throw out’ 1% deficit target • Moody’s deficit miss ‘fair judgment’ • GDP goal beaten ‘if it all kicks in’

KP TURNQUEST

And, with global economic risks rising due to this week’s stock market sell-off and the continuing US-China trade war, Mr Turnquest said the Bahamian economy “could be a victim” of such forces. He pledged to update the Bahamian people should this nation’s fiscal and economic outlook change, but voiced optimism that the country was “still on track” to achieve the 1.8 percent economic expansion for 2019 projected by

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest forecast. Speaking after Moody’s, the international credit rating agency, reiterated its belief that the government will miss its one percent of gross domestic product (GDP) deficit forecast for the 2019-2020 fiscal year, Mr Turnquest acknowledged that there were several factors that could throw this

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Moody’s predicts $82m fiscal deficit overshoot By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net MOODY’S is predicting that the government will overshoot its 2019-2020 deficit target by more than $82m and take longer than anticipated to produce the budget surplus it is seeking. The international credit rating agency, in its latest update on The Bahamas’ sovereign creditworthiness, forecast that the deficit for this current fiscal year will come in at 1.6 percent of economic output - a sum equivalent to $219.2m. This is some $82m higher than the $137m worth of “red ink” projected when the Budget was unveiled in May, with the government then voicing its optimism that the deficit - which measures by how much government spending exceeds

Taxi union in compliance row with NIB  By NATARIO MCKENZIE

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net THE taxi cab union is in a “chokehold”, its president said yesterday, as he threatened legal action against the National Insurance Board (NIB) for allegedly failing to provide it with a letter of good standing. Wesley Ferguson told Tribune Business: “We are intending to take legal action against NIB. It seems like they are trying to put us out of business. We inherited an astronomical bill

• Forecasts will come in at 1.6%, not govts 1% • But holds to 1.8% GDP growth projection • Warns fiscal consolidation may hit growth revenue - would hit the one percent of GDP demanded by the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Moody’s, though, justified its more cautious assessment of The Bahamas’ push to slash nine-figure annual deficits on the basis of the government’s consistent past inability to hit its fiscal objectives. “The government is targeting a deficit of one percent in 2019-2020, and 0.5 percent in 2020/-2021,” Moody’s said. “Because the government has not yet established a track record under its new fiscal rules, our baseline projections are slightly more conservative from our predecessor. We went into NIB when we came into office, we presented ourselves and asked them to give us a payment plan. “Since then we have been behind them to get a payment plan. NIB is refusing to give the Bahamas Taxi Cab Union (BTU) a payment plan. We are right now in debt. We have done a whole lot of work, mostly with the Bahamas government, Ministry of Tourism. We cannot now do business extensively because NIB will not give us a certificate of compliance so the government could pay us what they owe. “As a business entity you have to be NIB compliant. NIB has us in a bind. We have had numerous

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DPM: Just 50% of registry firms deemed ‘active’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

JUST 50 percent of companies listed on the registry are thought to be “active”, the deputy prime minister said yesterday, as thousands of entities were informed of their removal. KP Turnquest told Tribune Business that the “gazzetting” of their removal under recent reforms made to the Companies Act was intended to clean-up the registry and bring The Bahamas into compliance with its obligations under the Register of Beneficial Ownership Act.

“This is all a part of the beneficial ownership registry,” he explained. “We have an obligation to know who the beneficial owners of all these companies are. A lot of them are companies that have been inactive and not met their commitments in terms of fees and filings. We can’t find the people responsible, so are just striking them according to the law. “They have to be registered. We need to know who’s who and what they’re trying to do; all of it. I believe there’s about 80,000

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than the government’s. “We expect a fiscal deficit of 1.6 percent of GDP in 2019-2020, and deficits slightly wider than the government’s targets in subsequent years.” The rating agency expressed similar sentiments about the justcompleted 2018-2019 fiscal year, suggesting the government may again have overshot its deficit target this time by $63.6m to take it to $292.6m. “We expect the deficit to have reached 2.3 percent of GDP in fiscal 2018-2019, which is above the budget’s target of 1.8 percent of GDP but below the 3.4 percent recorded in 2017-2018,

as the government recognised 1.4 percent of GDP in arrears and took new expenditure-increasing initiatives, despite raising the VAT rate to 12 percent from 7.5 percent previously,” Moody’s said. “During the first nine months of the fiscal year, government revenues grew by 15 percent whereas expenditures increased by five percent compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year. VAT receipts increased by 20 percent as a result of the tax hike whereas capital expenditures contracted by

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‘Stupid is as stupid does’ on BPL crisis By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A GOVERNANCE reformer yesterday blasted The Bahamas’ tendency to only address key problems “in a crisis” as he blamed its energy woes on “irresponsible governance” and bad fiscal habits. Robert Myers, pictured, a principal with the Organisation for Responsible Governance (ORG), told Tribune Business that the country’s fiscal ill-health is directly linked to the Government’s seeming inability to do anything substantial about Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) New Providence generation shortfall in the near term. With all fiscal “headroom” used up by the spending of previous administrations, Mr Myers argued that BPL’s daily load shedding and outages represented part of the “pain and suffering” Bahamians must endure to place their country back on the right path. He added that BPL’s problems were a prime example of the lack of accountability that plagues governmentowned corporations, and highlighted the “negligence” of successive governments - PLP and FNM - in not addressing the state-owned utility’s mounting financial and energy infrastructure challenges even though they were becoming increasingly obvious to all. Mr Myers also warned it would be “a real disaster” if BPL’s load shedding and outages continued through November-December 2019 as that period represents the start of “peak tourism season” when “most businesses earn the majority of their money”. Edmund Phillips, Wartsila’s business development manager, this week said installation of BPL’s new 132 megawatts (MW) of

generation capacity is likely to be completed by mid-December, meaning that all hopes for an end to load shedding in time for Thanksgiving may have to pinned on milder weather and a corresponding reduction in electricity demand. Meanwhile, Mr Myers said the unreliable energy supply had impacted his own group of companies by shutting down the Automatic Transfer Switch (ATS) that brings power back up after an outage. This, he added, had forced him to send head office and retail employees home two to three times, while also costing his businesses “tens of thousands of dollars”. Tying BPL’s crisis directly to poor governance and fiscal polices, the ORG chief blasted: “If you go back to the core of it: Are their accountability issues? Are their management issues? Are their money issues? Yes, there are all those things. The core is if people were accountable, and we were fiscally prudent, we would not have these problems. “A lot of these things stem from decades of poor accountability, poor governance and no fiscal prudence. Just spend, spend, spend until we can’t spend any more, and that’s where we’re at. We’ve got to work ourselves back into some sort of responsible pattern or we will create more pain. “This [BPL’s crisis] is the pain I’ve been talking about. We’re not going to get

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