08142019 BUSINESS

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WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 14, 2019

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New blueprint for Grand BOB shrugs off $6m default to Lucayan unveiled today resume profits

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A

CABINET minister and Grand Lucayan Board members will today visit Miami to view an updated blueprint for Royal Caribbean’s multi-million transformation of the resort and nearby harbour.

Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, confirmed to Tribune Business that he and other members of the delegation have asked the cruise line and its ITM Group partner for a new look at their “vision and plan” for the resort and surrounding area.

Voicing optimism that “a deal will be struck” to sell the Grand Lucayan to the joint venture as part of a wider development to overhaul Freeport into a destination product, Mr D’Aguilar said he hoped to

• Govt team to see updated ‘vision and plan’ • Heading to Miami for Royal Caribbean meet • Minister: Talks may last ‘good many months’

DIONISIO D’AGUILAR conclude an agreement with ITM Group/Royal Caribbean “certainly by the end of the year”.

“We’ve asked them to update us on their vision and plan,” he told this

newspaper of today’s Miami meeting. “As time goes on you’re always fine tuning and reworking, and I’m waiting to see their vision and plan on how they intend to redevelop the property.

That’s kind of where we are.

“This is a natural progression of the discussion and vision of what’s going to happen there. Everything is on schedule, going to plan.

We’re negotiating, and that has its ups and downs, twists and turns.”

Michael Scott, chairman of Lucayan Renewal Holdings, the governmentowned vehicle that owns the resort, declined to comment when contacted by Tribune Business and directed this newspaper to Mr D’Aguilar.

Tribune Business sources,

speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Government delegation was eager to see what ITM Group/ Royal Caribbean are proposing and their planned overall investment in overhauling Freeport’s tourism product.

They added that the government, and Lucayan Renewal Holdings Board, are hoping to conclude a sales agreement for the Grand Lucayan’s disposal by the end of August given that the joint venture’s due diligence period will have expired by then following a previous month’s extension.

“They also want to finalise the concessions, subsidies and incentives under

SEE PAGE 4

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net BANK of The Bahamas shrugged off a $6m default judgment bid by an ex-Cabinet minister’s companies, and resumed its slow recovery march, by posting $2.99m in 2019 full-year profits.

The BISX-listed institution, which has twice had to be rescued by multi-million dollar taxpayer bail-outs, last night unveiled an 87 percent net income increase for the 12 months to endJune that was driven largely by a six-fold reduction in bad loan provisions.

These dropped from $7.568m to $1.184m yearover-year, a more than $6m reduction, as Bank of The Bahamas’ recovered much of the ground lost in the third quarter to the claim made against it by

the family companies of Damian Gomez, ex-minister of state for legal affairs, and David Jennette.

Bank of The Bahamas’ need to take provisions against any potential loss stemming from that default judgment plunged the institution into a $4.039m net loss for the three months to end-March 2019. This “red ink”, which wiped out firsthalf profits worth more than $3.5m, drove Bank of The Bahamas into a $209,604 loss for the first nine months.

The bank, though, was able to recover much of this lost ground by a six-fold year-over-year increase in net income for the fourth quarter, which rose from $524,397 in 2018 to $3.2m this time around.

Kenrick Braithwaite, Bank of The Bahamas’

SEE PAGE 3

Manufacturers: ‘Blow hole in budget’ to fix BPL emergency BPL is ‘wreaking havoc’ on sector

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

By NATARIO MCKENZIE

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net A BAHAMIAN water supplier yesterday said it has spent “tens of thousands of dollars” replacing equipment damaged by frequent power outages, and blasted: “It’s wreaking havoc on us.”

Geoffrey Knowles, operations manager at Aquapure, told Tribune Business: “This is a really busy period for us. Fortunately we have a generator, but every time BPL goes offline it messes with our motors, our sensors, everything.

“We have spent tens of thousands of dollars on motors, sensors and all kinds of electronic equipment because of the power cuts. It’s a total mess. I know they have their problems but they have had a long time to deal with it.

The only thing I’m hearing is excuses. It’s doing us really bad. We have to pay our employees overtime. It’s knocked us back quite a bit, but the big problem is the loss of equipment.”​ Other New Providencebased businesses expressed similar sentiments, describing Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) ongoing power generation woes as a “major disruptor” and huge “inconvenience” to their operations.​ Elvis Percentie,

co-founder and chief executive of Shiver, a Bahamian ice cream and sorbet producer, told Tribune Business: “It’s definitely affected our schedule. We don’t really have any lost product. When the power goes out we don’t open any of our freezers, and that helps to maintain our product, but it’s definitely been disruptive. We are actually working on a back-up generator or a solar option.”​ Basil Smith, the Association of Bahamas Marinas (ABM) executive director, said: “There is a concern about this issue. In one instance some marinas may have to upgrade their generation capacity, which is definitely an expense.

“One or two marinas have seen boats pulling out because they find the situation annoying, and so that’s business lost. You also have to consider how this could impact other potential boaters looking to come here.”​ Karla Wells-Lisgaris, brand manager at Caribeban Bottling Company, the local Coca-Cola producer, added: “As to be expected with the power cuts and surges we have had some mechanical issues. We blew a compressor and we also had some sensors go bad.

An even bigger problem is that when our production line is running and there is a

SEE PAGE 4

A FORMER finance minister yesterday urged the government to “blow a hole in the budget” to end the “national emergency” created by Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) generation crisis.

James Smith, who held the post under the first Christie administration, told Tribune Business it needed to “make the hard decision between a balanced budget and making capital investments to benefit the wider economy” given BPL’s inability to provide reliable energy supply to New Providence.

Suggesting that the Minnis

• Set aside fiscal targets, ex-finance chief urges • Govt must ‘stop everything’ for power crisis • Warns outages ‘likely’ to slash 1.8% growth

JAMES SMITH administration needed to temporarily suspend its focus on meeting the Fiscal Responsibility Act’s deficit

ratio and other targets, the ex-Central Bank governor said the capital’s power shortfall should become the government’s “number one priority” item such that it “stops everything and tries to get that fixed”.

Given energy’s importance to a properly-functioning economy, Mr Smith warned that BPL’s woes had already “quite likely” cut the 1.8 percent GDP growth projected for The Bahamas in 2019.

With many businesses forced to close and send staff home early, and others

enduring daily disruptions to production and customer service, he added that economic output will fall even further the longer that the state-owned utility monopoly’s problems are unresolved.

Mr Smith said BPL’s load shedding, and frequent power outages, had worsened to the point where it affected him on a personal level as he last year finally dropped his decades-long resistance to acquiring a

SEE PAGE 2

‘Very confident’ on Nassau handling Customs reforms

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Ministry of Finance’s top official is “very confident” that next month’s roll-out of Customs’ new system on New Providence will be “manageable” despite concerns voiced elsewhere.

Marlon Johnson, acting financial secretary, told Tribune Business that initial difficulties surrounding the Electronic Single Window’s (ESW) implementation were not unexpected given that it represents “a massive sea change in the way business is done”.

Responding to complaints from Abaco that the new digital system had increased the workload

• Top official optimistic despite Abaco woe • Capital’s September launch ‘manageable’ • Pledges end to ‘bottlenecks’ by going digital

MARLON JOHNSON associated with clearing goods at the border by 400500 percent, Mr Johnson said Customs was already working with the island’s

brokers and importers to address their concerns.

He indicated that the ESW’s “seaside” roll-out on New Providence would likely be smoother given the collaboration between Customs and BISX-listed Arawak Cay Port Development Company (APD), which operates the commercial shipping port that handles around 90 percent of the island’s cargo imports.

Mr Johnson said major shippers and importers had also been involved to the extent that the shipping

companies’ own electronic management systems had been “integrated” with the ESW. Hailing the latest element in the government-wide digitisation initiative, the acting financial secretary added that the ESW’s builtin Artificial Intelligence would enable it to detect “anomalies” in import trends and prices to expose potential fraud and tax evasion.

The identity of all shipment owners, and ties to

SEE PAGE 5

PAGE 2, Wednesday, August 14, 2019

THE TRIBUNE

BISX-LISTED INSURER IN 29% PROFITS RISE COLINA Holdings (Bahamas) yesterday unveiled a 29 percent year-over-year increase in total net income to $8.9m for the 2019 first half.

The BISX-listed holding company, revealing a $2m bottom line increase upon last year’s $6.9m, said net income attributable to ordinary shareholders had also risen by 24.5 percent for the six months to end-June.

This produced an increase from $5.3m, or

$0.22 in earnings per share (EPS) in 2018, to $6.6m or $0.27 in EPS. Colina Holdings (Bahamas), which is the parent for Colina Insurance Company, attributed its improved profitability to greater investment income driving top-line growth.

The life, health and general insurer said total revenues for the half-year rose by $6.8m, or eight percent, from $84.2m to $91m.

This was entirely driven by improved returns on its

investment portfolio, which increased year-over-year by 70.6 percent or $8.9m to $21.5m.

The increased investment yields offset a reduction in Colina Holdings (Bahamas) premium revenues, which fell by more than $2m yearover-year - from $67.5m in the 2018 half-year to $65.3m.

The BISX-listed entity said benefits paid to policyholders decreased slightly year-over-year, falling from

$45.7m in 2018 to $44.2m this year. Policyholder reserves were increased by $12.1m, taking provisions for future benefits paid out on their behalf to $447.1m.

Colina Holdings (Bahamas) total assets stood at $779.1m at end-June 2019, a near $20m increase upon the 2018 year-end figure of $759.9m. Invested assets accounted for the highest proportion of these assets, standing at some 80.6 percent.

Terry Hilts, the company’s chairman, said: “Overall, we are pleased that the company continues to maintain its balance sheet strength and we remain focused on achieving our targeted financial objectives over the long-term.

“Colina Holdings Bahamas will continue to pursue opportunities which will enable the company to deliver sustainable earnings in the future.”

‘Blow hole in budget’ to fix BPL emergency FROM PAGE ONE generator by installing one at his home.

While BPL executives have suggested that their generation woes will be solved once the utility’s 132 megawatts (MW) in new generation capacity is installed at Clifton Pier, that will only happen by mid-December 2019 at the earliest.

Mr Smith said it was “going to be difficult, really difficult” for Bahamas-based businesses and residents to put up with daily load shedding and outages until then, which was why he is calling for direct government intervention now.

“This is one of those areas where we have to make hard decisions between a balanced Budget and making capital expenditures to benefit the wider economy,” he told Tribune Business. “I don’t know if BPL is asking for funding, but if they need funds for new equipment the government should find a way to do it.

“It’s a national emergency, and the sort of thing where you break the holes to fix it. You blow a hole in your Budget but get it back in the medium term. It’s not a bad investment. To do nothing and let it drag on like this, it will get worse and worse. It’s beginning to feed on itself.”

The government, which has invested a significant amount of its political capital in reforming the public finances by eliminating annual fiscal deficits and reducing the $8bn-plus national debt, will be loathe to abandon the discipline imposed by the Fiscal

Responsibility Act’s targets which allow for a 0.5 percent “miss” or lower - so soon.

BPL’s cash flow problems and persistent annual losses, which average in the $20mplus range over the past decade, have left it in no position to afford new generation units or maintenance beyond the $95m Wartsila engines purchase until its debts are refinanced by the upcoming $450m-$550m Rate Reduction Bond issue.

However, no economy with “first world” aspirations can operate properly without a reliable energy supply, and Mr Smith argued that an immediate fix would restore business and consumer confidence, generate renewed activity and increase imports such that any government spend on new BPL generation capacity would ultimately be recouped over the medium to long-term.

He argued that The Bahamas and its economy simply cannot afford to wait another three-four months for New Providence’s energy supply situation to improve, adding: “It’s the number one priority; something as fundamental as the sustained provision of electricity to all households and businesses operating in the country.

“You just stop everything and try to get that fixed. It’s a real national problem. It reminds me of how sometimes you have to regroup after a hurricane. You turn all your resources to hurricane relief, and the country understands that.”

BPL executives made it abundantly clear at the weekend that there is no immediate relief in sight for the three-four hour delay outages affecting all parts of New Providence, repeatedly stating that they “cannot guarantee” there will be no further load shedding this summer.

They are pinning their hopes on repairing two of the three generation units that broke down at the Blue Hills power plant recently, believing that restoring them to service will eliminate the current 40 MW generation shortfall between BPL’s 210 MW capacity and New Providence’s 250 MW peak demand.

However, BPL executives admitted there was nothing to prevent further breakdowns of these and other units in the utility’s aged, poorly maintained generation fleet. Other than repairs, the only other hope is for a mild November and an ease in New Providence’s energy demand such that BPL can meet it once again.

Given that no part of the Bahamian economy has been spared, Mr Smith told Tribune Business that “it’s quite likely” economic growth has already been impacted to the extent that it will come in below the 1.8

percent expansion projected for 2019.

With those businesses lacking a generator often forced to close early and send staff home, he added that workers’ wages especially those receiving hourly-based pay - would be reduced. This, in turn, will lower aggregate demand in an economy where two-thirds of consumption is driven by consumer spending.

Mr Smith said companies were also incurring increased generator fuel bills and maintenance costs, forcing them to divert resources from investment, expansion and job creation, while also suffering the loss of critical electrical equipment due to BPL-related power surges and spikes.

Companies that sold perishable goods were also experiencing greater inventory loss, he said, adding: “It affects the economy at different levels and to different degrees, but the overall effect is to compress your economic growth. It affects all units of consumption and production.

“I’m really concerned about the economy. It’s disruptive to all of us, but it could have some adverse medium and long-term effects for the main industry.

When you get a black eye like this, word gets around and people make decisions to cancel. We may see some of that later this summer.

“It’s also a turn-off to investment by locals and foreigners because any business putting up in this country depends on electricity being on on a normal basis. Decisions are being made now to defer planned expansions and bring on additional people.”

Mr Smith said BPL’s inability to meet its basic obligation to the Bahamian people, that of keeping the power on consistently, had also impacted him personally.

“For the last 30 years I said that any decent, working economy ought to be able to provide sustainable electricity to its population base,” he explained. “I refused to invest in a generator, but about a year ago I had to; the constant interruptions and not being as young as I used to be.”

Mr Smith said a recent newspaper from The Tribune’s archives, dated 1969, carried a lead story referring to continuous power blackouts on New Providence.

He added that it showed how little the progress The Bahamas had made in half a century when it came to providing such a fundamental service.

To advertise in The Tribune, contact 502-2394

THE TRIBUNE

Wednesday, August 14, 2019, PAGE 3

Restaurant chains ready for single-use plastics ban

By NATARIO MCKENZIE

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net A BAHAMIAN restaurant operator yesterday said it had been moving towards eco-friendly packaging long before the government’s decision to ban Styrofoam and singleuse plastics.​ Gandhi Pinder, Bamboo Shack’s vice-president of marketing and public relations, told Tribune Business: “We began the process in earnest in 2018, and continue to move in that direction with the goal of being fully eco-friendly.

“Although the Bamboo Grill House has just been added to our group of companies, it will be the first to be fully biodegradable in a matter of days. In our

Sapodilla restaurant our coasters are biodegradable even though it’s a fine dining restaurant. At our Bamboo Shack location in Miami we use biodegradable items as well.”

Ms Pinder spoke as the government yesterday released the Environmental Protection (Control of Plastic Pollution) Bill 2019, which is designed to give legal effect to the drive to ban single-use plastics in The Bahamas.

Businesses will be able to possess and sell prohibited plastics to customers up to June 30, 2020 for a fee of not less than 25 cents and not more than $1 per bag, excluding VAT, according to the Bill in a bid to ease the transition.

Single-use plastic foodware is defined as styrofoam

cups, styrofoam plates and other similar styrofoam foodware used to contain food, plastic knives, plastic forks, plastic spoons, and plastic straws.

Ms Pinder added: “It’s a gradual process, but definitely the goal is to move toward 100 percent ecofriendly packaging. There are so many different aspects with our different brands, and so many different levels to our approach to being eco-friendly. We want the government to see us as a partner. We consider ourselves a responsible corporate citizen and that should be reflected in every aspect of our business.” ​ Janairo Turnquest, its chief financial officer, said: “Long before this became a mandate by the government this was our focus.”​ The

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company now has 12 restaurants, with the Bamboo Shack chain set to celebrate 30 years in existence next year.​ Ms Pinder said Bamboo Shack has been zero trans fat “for decades” and continues to push for healthier food options, while supporting local farmers and the surrounding communities.​ Ash Henderson, marketing director for Restaurant Services, the Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC), Burger King and Dunkin Donuts franchise operator, told Tribune Business: “We’ve been following the issue closely, and have been working with both the ministry and the respective franchise support teams for each of our brands to ensure that we’re fully compliant once the

legislation takes effect.

“The Quick Service Restaurant industry is uniquely affected by this type of legislation, as the majority of our business is conducted through either take-out or a drive-through which necessitates disposable packaging.

“Thankfully, as The Bahamas is joining many other countries around the world with initiatives to reduce plastic waste, it appears that we will be able to source alternative solutions for the affected items. There are certainly increased costs associated with these alternative solutions, but we will have a clearer understanding of the impact of those costs as we near implementation.”​ Businesses will be allowed to sell compostable

single use plastic bags at prices between 25 cents to $1, excluding VAT. They will not be able to sell them to customers at the point of sale and, if they do, the sale of the bag must be separately stated on the receipt and identified as a “checkout bag fee”.

Companies will be allowed to keep the fees collected for the sale of these bag, but a record must be kept of the number of bags supplied during the reporting year, along with the gross and net proceeds of the sale.

Failure to keep these records will result in a fine up to $2,000, and failure to supply a copy of the record to the Ministry of the Environment carries a fine up to $1,000.

BOB shrugs off $6m default to resume profits

by almost $7m from $29.686m in 2018 to $36.505m this time around.

“The bank’s operating expenses were relatively stable for the quarter but had an increase of $6.8m or 22.97 percent for the year, primarily due to the legal claim mentioned,” Mr Braithwaite added. “Excluding the legal claim, the bank’s operating expenses were substantially unchanged year-over-year.”

With total operating income up by $1.8m, or 4.7 percent, for the full-year at $40.679m, Bank of The Bahamas had to rely on the reduction in bad credit provisions to offset the impact of the contingencies taken for the default judgment.

More than one-quarter of Bank of The Bahamas’ $341.233m net loan portfolio

remains in the non-accrual category, meaning it is 90 days or more past due. While this ratio actually fell yearover-year from 28.92 percent to 26.22 percent, it is still the worst among all Bahamasbased commercial banks by far.

And the bank’s balance sheet shows that it would be technically insolvent, with liabilities exceeding assets by around $9m, without the $167.627m worth of government bonds injected into the institution by the second bailout in August 2018.

Despite its improved profitability, Bank of The Bahamas has a long way to go to wipe out the $139.751m accumulated deficit on its books that represents the heavy losses which necessitated the taxpayer bail-out.

FROM PAGE ONE

managing director, in his message to shareholders reassured that there was no need for panic over the default claim against it.

“For the year ended June 30, 2019, the bank recorded net income of $3m compared to the $1.6m net income for the year ended June 30, 2018, an increase of 87.1 percent,” he said. “During the last quarter, the bank was made aware of a judgment in default against the bank for approximately $6m plus interest and cost.

“The bank has filed the applications to set aside the default judgment and the said damages, and also to stay or, in certain circumstances, strike out enforcement proceedings.

Adequate provision has been made in the financial statements for any loss that might ultimately be determined.”

These default judgment provisions resulted in a near23 percent increase in Bank of The Bahamas’ full-year operating expenses, which jumped

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PAGE 4, Wednesday, August 14, 2019

THE TRIBUNE

New blueprint for Grand Manufacturers: Lucayan unveiled today BPL is ‘wreaking havoc’ on sector FROM PAGE ONE

the Heads of Agreement, and see where everything is in terms of timing,” one source said of the group’s plans.

Mr D’Aguilar last night said he was “not absolutely certain of the deadlines and timelines” in the negotiating process, but added that he was aware of “a due diligence period, a period of acquisition and a transfer period”.

“It’s all part of the negotiating process,” he said, adding of the investment incentives: “It’s nothing out of the ordinary. Almost everybody coming into The Bahamas to do a project looks for concessions. They put forward their proposal, we negotiate and it goes to Cabinet for final approval.”

Tribune Business previously reported that ITM and Royal Caribbean,

whose joint venture is called Holistica, have been working to tie down airlift and sealift components for the project before fully engaging the government in talks to seal a Heads of Agreement and the resort’s sale.

This newspaper was told that ITM, in particular, had become increasingly uneasy over what it perceived as difficulties in tying down the Hutchison Whampoa-controlled Freeport Harbour Company over redevelopment of the harbour.

That project, and addition of extra cruise berths, is critical if ITM/Royal Caribbean are to generate the passenger numbers necessary to sustain a transformed Grand Lucayan.

Multiple Tribune Business sources, though, said the harbour and cruise port deal between ITM and Hutchison was eventually signed at the beginning of July.

With sealift out of the way, attention has now turned to Grand Bahama International Airport - also ultimately controlled by the Freeport Harbour Company - given that securing sufficient airlift is also key to the ITM/Royal Caribbean plans.

Tribune Business previously reported that the airport “is on the radar” of all involved in the negotiations, given that its relatively high fees in comparison to regional rivals have been blamed in the past for deterring airlines from flying into Grand Bahama.

Mr D’Aguilar last night declined to comment on the status of negotiations over the airport, saying “that’s too specific and I’d prefer not to go there”. He did, though, maintain his optimism that a deal will eventually be concluded.

“I’m very confident that something will happen and a deal will be struck,” he told Tribune Business, “but long and hard negotiations are continuing. We’re still going through that process, which will probably continue on a good many months. I would hope that certainly by the end of the year it will be done.”

The ITM/Royal Caribbean project was branded “a game changer” for Freeport’s economy when revealed by Tribune Business earlier this year, as it promises a revival of the tourism industry that could - together with Carnival’s $100m cruise port - help drag the city out

of a 15-year slump.

The Mexican port developer and cruise line have said the $130m first phase investment will cover a 24-month period, meaning that a revived Grand Lucayan - complete with water-based theme park and associated retail, gaming and restaurant amenities - may only be ready to receive its first guests come winter 2021 if the current timeline.

The joint venture, if the deal closes, will pay $65m to acquire the Grand Lucayan as part of a development aiming to create 2,000 new jobs in its first phase. This will bring in an extra two million cruise passengers to Grand Bahama every year, transforming the area into “a world class destination”.

As previously detailed by Tribune Business, the proposal focuses on developing water-based adventure theme parks at both Freeport Harbour and around the resort. The Grand Lucayan will be upgraded to “five-star hotel accommodation”, and feature multiple gaming, entertainment and restaurant experiences.

Although few specifics have been released, the joint venture envisions combining Port Lucaya and Freeport Harbour into a “unique destination” that will set Grand Bahama apart from its competitors, not just Florida and other Caribbean nations, but Nassau/Paradise Island and the Family Islands.

FROM PAGE ONE power cut the production line stops.”

“It takes around 45 minutes to get the line running again. That’s a major disruption. Once production has started a certain amount of concentrate has been blended and has to be used within a certain timeframe. That can lead to overtime because if we have ‘x’ amount of gallons mixed, and we’re at the beginning of a production run, that entire batch

has to be produced.

“That can lead to overtime and ultimately an increase in our overhead.

What we have been doing is letting the generator run to the end of the production run ,and if city power is on we will switch back.

Thankfully our generators are reliable and we’re probably more fortunate than some other companies. Our generators can cover our capacity but it’s as much an inconvenience for us as it is for a lot of other companies here.”

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that MICHELINE JOSEPH of, Palmdale, New Providence, The Bahamas, is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 14th day of August, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that joel ceus of, Zirconia Court, New Providence, The Bahamas, is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 14th day of August, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

THE TRIBUNE

‘Very confident’ on Nassau handling Customs reforms FROM PAGE ONE

their particular cargo, will also be tracked “to protect the integrity of the system”.

Mr Johnson said this would help prevent cases where persons smuggling contraband into The Bahamas had used someone else’s name as the shipment’s owner in a bid to hide their involvement.

“We’re very, very confident,” Mr Johnson told Tribune Business. “When it comes into New Providence, again there will be some adjustment period, but we feel pretty confident the New Providence process will be manageable.

“Early September is what we’re aiming for, and we’re very much on schedule for that. This is a massive sea change in the way business is done. It is not unexpected that we will have some measure of discomfort as we roll it out.”

Customs’ ESW system was not without its growing pains during its “airside” launch on New Providence earlier this year, meaning at Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA), where air freight importers such as courier companies were impacted.

And it is also unlikely that Abaco’s private sector and shipping/import community share Mr Johnson’s optimism either. Tribune Business revealed last week how Abaco’s business community was “extremely upset” over “delays and added expenses” created by the transition to the new digital process.

Ken Hutton, the Abaco Chamber of Commerce’s president, warned that unless rectified these issues would increase the cost of clearing goods and, ultimately, the cost of living as any price rises will be passed on to consumers.

“There are still significant delays clearing goods, and there are issues still yet to be dealt with properly.

The biggest issue is that the actual workload in clearing goods has increased between 400-500 percent,” he said.

“It’s definitely affecting the clearance of goods out of the port and, based upon

how much extra time and work it’s taking to do these entries on the ESW system, I can foresee that the cost of clearing goods is definitely going to increase and that’s going to increase the cost of living in Abaco. An entry that would normally take three hours is now taking a day-and-a-half. An entry that used to cover one page on a C13 now covers 15 pages or more.”

Lance Pinder, operations manager at Abaco Big Bird, told Tribune Business: “Brokers are working until midnight. We do our own brokerage at the farm so we know. It’s really time consuming and unclear. It was put into effect with almost no warning.

“I have talked with other business people and we expect it will raise prices around five percent. People are having to hire more staff. People in Green Turtle Cay are having issues because their stuff can’t be cleared in time to catch the weekly mailboat, so it’s stuck in Marsh Harbour for a week. It’s really putting a mental and physical strain on people here in Abaco.”

In response, Mr Johnson said similar concerns had been raised in New Providence, Cat Island and Eleuthera when the ESW was launched on those islands. Pointing out that the system is “brand new”, he urged users and importers to give it time.

“When you start anything it pretty much takes time to become routine,” Mr Johnson added, “but we want to assure users we are taking feedback so if there are improvements to be made in how the processes are run we are open to changes to make it easier. We’re taking on all the feedback from Abaco.”

Besides meeting with the Chamber of Commerce in both Abaco and New Providence, he said Customs officers are also now “embedded” with the major shipping companies in Marsh Harbour on a full-time basis to help ease the transition. Some companies had also brought in assistance from the capital to help them “get up to speed”.

Mr Johnson said the adjustment in New Providence should be easier given the collaboration between Customs, APD and the island’s major shipping companies and importers. And he added: “We’ve been able to integrate the shipping companies’ management systems with the electronic window,” he said. “We have a team working with APD, an IT team, to ensure the system is integrated and tested.”

The ESW will require all importers, even those bringing in one-off shipments, to be registered with it. “We’ve seen incidents of people bringing in contraband and assigning it to another person,” the Ministry of Finance official told Tribune Business.

“It could be very serious depending on the nature of what’s imported. We don’t want people to be exposed that way, and want to tie people to their shipments at the border. It’s important to know who’s shipping what, and for what purpose, and to protect persons so people can’t use my name or yours for something we don’t know anything about.”

Mr Johnson said the ESW’s Artificial Intelligence will enable it to identify “anomalies” such as two companies importing the same product, but at radically different prices and paying different duty/ VAT sums, thereby suggesting one may be cheating.

“It will allow us to do a lot more intelligence and analytical work,” he added of the ESW. “The Artificial Intelligence built into it will allow the system to look for things that seem out of line compared to trends.

“We will have a system that works better for the importer and the government, and tidy up some of the things that slipped through the cracks under the old system. Compliance, revenues and the information we get will enable us to lock down areas that are vulnerable.

“We will also be able to track the progress of a shipment from beginning to end. It will allow us to see if there are bottlenecks and speed the system through.”

Wednesday, August 14, 2019, PAGE 5

PAGE 6, Wednesday, August 14, 2019 DALLAS Associated Press UNITED Airlines is setting an earlier cutoff time for when pilots must stop drinking alcohol before flights.

The airline is telling pilots they must abstain from alcohol for 12 hours before flights, up from the previous eight hours.

The change in the rule — it’s called “bottle-to-throttle” in the airline business — comes several days after two United pilots were arrested in Scotland and charged with suspicion of being under the influence before a flight to the US. The old eight-hour limit complied with Federal Aviation Administration rules,

THE TRIBUNE

UNITED TELLS PILOTS NO ALCOHOL FOR 12 HOURS BEFORE FLIGHTS

which also prohibit pilots from flying with a bloodalcohol content at or above 0.04%. Almost all states make it a crime to drive a car at or above 0.08%.

An extra four hours will help social drinkers sober

LEGAL NOTICE

Elnera Enterprise Ltd NOTICE is hereby given that in accordance with Section 138 (8) of the International Business Companies Act, 2000, of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, the dissolution of Elnera Enterprise Ltd. has been completed; a Certificate of Dissolution has been issued and the Company has been struck off the Register.

Dated this 7th day of August 2019 ______________________ Liquidator Carmen Reimann

NOTICE

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that MARVIN AUGUSTIN of, Parker Street of Meadow Street, New Providence, The Bahamas, is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 14th day of August, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE is hereby given that JESSICA ALCINOR of, Second Street Grove, New Providence, The Bahamas, is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/ naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 14th day of August, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

MARKET REPORT www.bisxbahamas.com

(242) 323-2330

TUESDAY, 13 AUGUST 2019

(242) 323-2320

ALL SHARE INDEX: CLOSE: 2,159.01 | CHG: 0.81 | %CHG: 0.04 | YTD: 49.56 | YTD%: 2.35 BISX LISTED & TRADED SECURITIES 52WK HI 4.50 20.91 7.00 5.92 2.60 2.00 3.00 11.75 6.17 4.64 12.50 2.81 2.41 10.00 7.10 15.60 9.00 3.75 14.20

52WK LOW 3.50 19.17 4.90 4.02 1.00 0.19 2.00 9.17 6.15 3.54 8.53 2.35 1.75 7.51 6.10 11.25 6.20 3.01 13.00

SECURITY AML Foods Limited APD Limited Bahamas Property Fund Bahamas Waste Bank of Bahamas Benchmark Cable Bahamas CIBC FirstCaribbean Bank Colina Holdings Commonwealth Bank Commonwealth Brewery Consolidated Water BDRs Doctor's Hospital Emera Incorporated Famguard Fidelity Bank Finco Focol J. S. Johnson

SYMBOL AML APD BPF BWL BOB BBL CAB CIB CHL CBL CBB CWCB DHS EMAB FAM FBB FIN FCL JSJ

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00

Cable Bahamas Series 6 Cable Bahamas Series 8 Cable Bahamas Series 9 Cable Bahamas Series 10 Colina Holdings Class A Fidelity Bank Class A Focol Class B

CAB6 CAB8 CAB9 CAB10 CHLA FBBA FCLB

PREFERENCE SHARES

1.00 10.00 1.00

1.00 10.00 1.00

CORPORATE DEBT - (percentage pricing) 52WK HI 100.00

52WK LOW 100.00

115.92 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

104.79 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

52WK HI 2.25 4.29 2.06 191.61 158.55 1.62 1.76 1.70 1.15 7.72 8.97 6.77 11.25 12.14 10.63 10.00 8.69 11.79

52WK LOW 1.67 3.04 1.68 164.74 116.70 1.56 1.68 1.64 1.08 6.41 7.62 5.66 8.65 10.54 9.57 9.88 8.45 11.20

SECURITY Fidelity Bank Note 22 (Series B) +

SYMBOL FBB22

Bahamas Note 6.95 (2029) BGS: 2015-1-3Y BGS: 2014-12-5Y BGS: 2015-1-5Y BGS: 2014-12-7Y BGS: 2015-1-7Y BGS: 2014-12-30Y BGS: 2015-1-30Y BGS: 2015-6-3Y BGS: 2015-6-5Y BGS: 2015-6-7Y BGS: 2015-6-30Y BGS: 2015-10-3Y BGS: 2015-10-5Y BGS: 2015-10-7Y

BAH29 BG0203 BG0105 BG0205 BG0107 BG0207 BG0130 BG0230 BG0303 BG0305 BG0307 BG0330 BG0403 BG0405 BG0407

BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT STOCK - (percentage pricing)

MUTUAL FUNDS

MARKET TERMS

LAST CLOSE 4.19 17.43 6.00 5.92 2.46 1.80 2.18 11.05 6.16 4.30 9.02 2.83 2.40 10.33 7.00 15.45 9.00 3.30 14.00

CLOSE 4.19 17.43 6.00 5.92 2.46 1.80 2.18 11.05 6.16 4.30 9.02 2.89 2.40 10.38 7.00 15.45 9.00 3.30 14.20

CHANGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1.00 10.00 1.00

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1.00 10.00 1.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

LAST SALE 100.00

CLOSE 100.00

CHANGE 0.00

107.31 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

107.31 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

FUND CFAL Bond Fund CFAL Balanced Fund CFAL Money Market Fund CFAL Global Bond Fund CFAL Global Equity Fund FG Financial Preferred Income Fund FG Financial Growth Fund FG Financial Diversified Fund FG Financial Global USD Bond Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Secured Balanced Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Targeted Equity Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Prime Income Fund Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - Equities Sub Fund Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - High Yield Fund Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - Alternative Strategies Fund Colonial Bahamas Fund Class D Colonial Bahamas Fund Class E Colonial Bahamas Fund Class F

BISX ALL SHARE INDEX - 19 Dec 02 = 1,000.00 52wk-Hi - Highest closing price in last 52 weeks 52wk-Low - Lowest closing price in last 52 weeks Previous Close - Previous day's weighted price for daily volume Today's Close - Current day's weighted price for daily volume Change - Change in closing price from day to day Daily Vol. - Number of total shares traded today DIV $ - Dividends per share paid in the last 12 months P/E - Closing price divided by the last 12 month earnings

VOLUME

1,000

500 290 131

1,000

VOLUME

NAV 2.25 4.29 2.06 191.61 158.33 1.62 1.76 1.70 1.15 7.72 8.97 6.77 11.25 12.14 10.57 9.92 8.68 11.38

EPS$ 0.240 0.932 1.760 0.323 0.098 0.000 -0.438 0.708 0.480 0.184 0.627 0.102 0.467 0.000 0.611 0.743 0.939 0.203 0.631

DIV$ 0.160 1.260 0.000 0.250 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.720 0.220 0.120 0.000 0.068 0.060 0.328 0.240 0.540 0.200 0.120 0.600

P/E 17.5 18.7 N/M 18.3 N/M N/M -5.0 15.6 12.8 23.4 14.4 28.3 5.1 N/M 11.5 20.8 9.6 16.3 22.5

YIELD 3.82% 7.23% 0.00% 4.22% 0.00% 1.11% 0.00% 6.52% 3.57% 2.79% 0.00% 2.35% 2.50% 3.16% 3.43% 3.50% 2.22% 3.64% 4.23%

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.25% 7.00% 6.50%

INTEREST Prime + 1.75%

MATURITY 19-Oct-2022

6.95% 4.00% 4.25% 4.25% 4.50% 4.50% 6.25% 6.25% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 6.25% 3.50% 3.88% 4.25%

20-Nov-2029 30-Jul-2018 16-Dec-2019 30-Jul-2020 15-Dec-2021 30-Jul-2022 15-Dec-2044 30-Jul-2045 26-Jun-2018 26-Jun-2020 26-Jun-2022 26-Jun-2045 15-Oct-2018 15-Oct-2020 15-Oct-2022

YTD%12 1.86% 1.25% 1.35% 3.85% 7.12% 1.57% 0.99% 1.32% 3.22% 3.25% 3.82% 2.59% 8.44% 3.87% 1.84% -0.71% 7.40% 10.20%

MTH% 3.97% 4.23% 2.73% 6.28% 2.08% 4.58% 4.25% 4.12% 5.64% 6.65% 8.36% 4.81% 0.78% 4.17% 2.29% 0.16% 2.70% 1.30%

YIELD - last 12 month dividends divided by closing price Bid $ - Buying price of Colina and Fidelity Ask $ - Selling price of Colina and fidelity Last Price - Last traded over-the-counter price Weekly Vol. - Trading volume of the prior week EPS $ - A company's reported earnings per share for the last 12 mths NAV - Net Asset Value N/M - Not Meaningful

TO TRADE CALL: CFAL 242-502-7010 | ROYALFIDELITY 242-356-7764 | FG CAPITAL MARKETS 242-396-4000 | COLONIAL 242-502-7525 | LENO 242-396-3225 | BENCHMARK 242-326-7333

NAV Date 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 28-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Apr-2019 30-Apr-2019 30-Apr-2019 30-Apr-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 30-Mar-2019 30-Mar-2019 30-Mar-2019

up, although it might not be long enough for a heavily drunken person. Some researchers calculate that once someone puts down the bottle, their blood-alcohol level drops 0.015% each hour. At that rate, a drinker could go from 0.12% to zero in eight hours, or from 0.18% to zero in 12 hours.

United sent a bulletin describing the new policy to pilots a week ago, and it took effect last Saturday.

“This policy is being changed to help assure pilot compliance with standards established by the United States and individual states where United operates around the world,” the bulletin said. It warned that meeting the 12-hour ban doesn’t guarantee that pilots will be in the clear — some countries have a zero-tolerance policy on blood-alcohol content.

In a statement, the Air Line Pilots Association, which represents United pilots, said “Inappropriate alcohol use by airline pilots is exceedingly rare,” and the professionalism of pilots has contributed to making air travel safe.

A United spokesman declined to say whether the change was due to the arrests of two United pilots on Aug 3 in Glasgow, Scotland, before they were

scheduled to operate a flight to Newark, New Jersey. The flight was cancelled.

Representatives for American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines said their policies follow the FAA’s current standard of no drinking within eight hours of duty.

They said their airlines are not considering any changes.

Alaska Airlines said it has a ten-hour no-alcohol rule for pilots.

United’s new policy was first reported by Skift, a travel industry media company.

The arrests of the United pilots followed other recent incidents. In May, an American Airlines pilot received a suspended six-month sentence after pleading guilty in a UK court to drinking before a Manchester to Philadelphia flight. In July, a Delta pilot was arrested before a flight in Minneapolis — airport police said he had an alcoholic container in his possession.

Incidents involving alcohol and on-duty airline employees aren’t limited to pilots. On Aug 2, a flight attendant was arrested after a United Express flight landed in Indiana. Passengers said she slurred her words during the pre-flight safety demonstration, then passed out in her jump seat.

THE TRIBUNE

Wednesday, August 14, 2019, PAGE 7

Trump claims credit for Shell plant announced under Obama

PRESIDENT Donald Trump walks on stage before speaking to a crowd of construction workers before touring Royal Dutch Shell’s petrochemical cracker plant yesterday in Monaca, Pa. MONACA Associated Press PRESIDENT Donald Trump sought to take credit yesterday for a major manufacturing complex in western Pennsylvania in his latest effort to reinvigorate the Rust Belt support that sent him to the White House. He was cheered on by fluorescent-vest-clad workers who were paid to attend by Shell, their employer, which is building the facility.

Despite Trump’s claims, Shell announced its plans to build the complex in 2012, midway through President Barack Obama’s term in the White House.

The event was billed as an official White House event, but Trump turned much of it into a campaign-style rally, boasting of achievements he claims as president and assailing his would-be Democratic rivals for the 2020 election.

“I don’t think they give a damn about Western Pennsylvania, do you?” he prodded the crowd.

Trump was visiting Shell’s soon-to-be completed Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex, which will turn the area’s vast natural gas deposits into plastics. The facility is being built in an area hungry for investment and employment, though

critics claim it will become the largest air polluter in western Pennsylvania.

Trump contends that America’s coal, oil and manufacturing are reviving and he deserves the credit. He’s been focusing on his administration’s efforts to increase the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels in defiance of increasingly urgent warnings about climate change.

And he’s embracing plastic at a time when the world is sounding alarms over its impact.

“We don’t need it from the Middle East anymore,” Trump said of oil and natural gas, proclaiming the employees “the backbone of this country”.

As for the new complex, he declared, “This would have never happened without me and us.”

Trump’s appeals to bluecollar workers helped him win Beaver County, where the plant is located, by more than 18 percentage points in 2016, only to have voters there turn to Democrats in 2018’s midterm elections.

In one of a series of defeats that led to Republicans’ loss of the House, voters sent Democrat Conor Lamb to Congress after the prosperity promised by Trump’s tax cuts failed to materialise.

Today, the much of the area is still struggling to recover from the shutting of steel plants in the 1980s

that sent unemployment to nearly 30%. Former mill towns like Aliquippa have seen their population shrink, though Pittsburgh has lured major tech companies like Google and Uber, fueling an economic renaissance in a city that reliably votes Democratic.

Trump claimed that his steel and aluminum foreigntrade tariffs have saved the industries and that they are now “thriving”, exaggerating the recovery of the steel industry, particularly when it comes to jobs, which have largely followed pace with broader economic growth.

Trump took credit for the addition of 600,000 US manufacturing jobs. Labour Department figures show that roughly 500,000 factory jobs have been added since his presidency started.

Manufacturing has also started to struggle anew this year as the administration has intensified its trade war with China and factory production has declined.

Pennsylvania has lost 5,600 manufacturing jobs so far this year, according to the Labour Department.

The region’s natural gas deposits had been seen, for a time, as its new road to prosperity, with drilling in the Marcellus Shale reservoir transforming Pennsylvania into the nation’s number two natural gas state.

To advertise in The Tribune, contact 502-2394

PAGE 8, Wednesday, August 14, 2019

THE TRIBUNE

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

Trump delays tariffs on some Chinese goods until December WASHIN GTON As soc iated Pres s RESPONDING to pressure from businesses and growing fears that a trade war is threatening the US economy, the Trump administration is delaying most of the import taxes it planned to impose on Chinese goods and is dropping others altogether.

The announcement yesterday from the Office of the US Trade Representative was greeted with relief on Wall Street and by retailers who have grown fearful that the new tariffs would wreck holiday sales.

The administration says it still plans to proceed with 10% tariffs on about $300bn in Chinese imports — extending its import taxes to just about everything China ships to the United States in a dispute over Beijing’s strong-arm trade policies.

But under pressure from retailers and other businesses, President Donald Trump’s trade office said it would delay until Dec. 15 the tariffs on nearly 60% of the imports that had been set to absorb the new taxes starting Sept 1. Among the products that will benefit from the 3½-month reprieve are such popular consumer goods as cellphones, laptops, video game consoles, some toys, computer monitors, shoes and clothing.

The administration is also removing other items from the tariff list entirely, based on what it called “health, safety, national security and other factors”.

Separately, China’s Ministry of Commerce reported that top Chinese negotiators had spoken by phone with their US counterparts, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and planned to talk again in two weeks.

The news sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring more than 400 points in mid-afternoon trading. Shares of Apple, Mattel and shoe brand Steve Madden, which stand to benefit from the delayed tariffs, led the rally.

Speaking to reporters in New Jersey, Trump confirmed that he had decided to delay the tariffs, which could force retailers to raise prices, to avoid the economic pain that could result during the holiday period.

“We’re doing (it) just for Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs could have an impact,” the president said.

Trump has repeatedly argued that his tariffs are hurting China, not American consumers. But by delaying higher tariffs on consumer goods, Trump is tacitly acknowledging that his import taxes stand to squeeze American households, too. Tariffs are taxes paid by US importers, not by China, and are often passed along to US businesses and consumers through higher prices.

Jay Foreman, CEO of the toy company Basic Fun, said he’s pleased that the 10% tariffs have been delayed for products like his until December. His company, based in Boca Raton, Florida, had already set prices for the holiday season and would have had to absorb the impact of the tariffs. Foreman said he is considering layoffs this fall to offset his higher costs and noted that despite Trump’s reprieve, tariffs remain a severe threat.

“We were relieved,” he said. “But does that stop the

volatility and instability?

No.” Together, the news of negotiations and tariff delays provided at least a respite after weeks of heightened US-China trade tensions. The relief might prove only temporary, though, if the tariffs eventually take full effect and Beijing retaliates against US exports.

The Trump administration is fighting the Chinese regime over allegations that Beijing steals trade secrets, forces foreign companies to hand over technology and unfairly subsidises its own firms. Those tactics are part of Beijing’s drive to become a world leader in such advanced technologies as artificial intelligence and electric cars.

But 12 rounds of talks have failed produce any resolution. Frustrated with the lack of progress, Trump raised the tariffs on $200bn in Chinese imports from 10% to 25% in May and said Aug 1 that he’d impose 10% taxes on an additional $300bn on Sept 1.

On Sunday, economists at Goldman Sachs downgraded their economic forecasts, citing the impending tariffs on consumer goods. And economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have raised their odds of a recession in the next year to roughly 33%, up from about 20%.

“We are worried,” Michelle Meyer, head of economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote on Friday. “We now have a number of early indicators starting to signal heightened risk of recession.”

Goldman said the tariffs on China have increased uncertainty for businesses, which will likely cause them to pull back on hiring and investing in new equipment or software. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods have also weighed down stock prices lower, which could depress spending by wealthier Americans, Goldman found.

“It’s pretty clear that the problem with (Trump’s) tariff tactics is it’s bad for the economy,” said David Dollar, a China specialist at the Brookings Institution and a former official at the World Bank and US Treasury. “You try to use the weapon but then you get blowback on your own people.”

Despite the exchanges between the US and Chinese negotiators, the prospects for negotiations remain dim. A substantive deal would require China to scale back its aspirations to become a tech superpower.

And relations between the countries have been strained by mistrust.

The best possible outcome, Dollar said, likely would be a “mini-deal” in which China agrees to buy more American products and narrow the gaping US trade deficit with China.

In exchange, perhaps the United States would lift some sanctions on the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, which the US sees as a national security risk.

So far, Trump’s tariffs have failed to get President Xi Jinping to yield to the US demands.

“I don’t think we’re any closer to a deal,” said Scott Kennedy, who analyses China’s economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I don’t think there will be any deal during the Trump administration.”