08102020 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

MONDAY, AUGUST 10, 2020

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Foreign investment flows slump by 33% By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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OREIGN direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Bahamian economy fell by one-third in 2019, it has been revealed, signalling it is unlikely to fill the COVID-19 foreign currency vacuum left by tourism. The just-released World Investment Report 2020 produced by United Nations (UN) agency, UNCTAD, disclosed that FDI inflows to this nation fell by 32.8 percent yearover-year to $637m to reach a level equal to just 20 percent of their peak achieved in 2014 when Baha Mar’s construction was being raced to its completion (unsuccessfully at that time). “FDI inflows to The Bahamas, the largest host economy among small island developing states (SIDS), shrank by a third to $637m, one-fifth

• Bahamas attracted just 20% of recent peak in 2019 • Signals struggle for FDI to replace tourism earnings • Call for investment refocus on digital, ‘value added’

of the peak registered in 2014,” UNCTAD said. “Investment in hotel projects slowed, and construction projects slated to start in 2019 were forced into a delay by Hurricane Dorian.” While acknowledging that data was not available for The Bahamas, UNCTAD warned that this nation was likely to be especially hard hit by COVID-19 given its traditional high dependency - and that of other SIDS on reinvested earnings by overseas investors. “Negative operational results of global multinational enterprises in 2020 will automatically affect FDI in SIDS through reinvested earnings,” UNCTAD added. “Host economies such as Fiji and Solomon Islands, with a high dependency on

Shell urges ‘timely’ power plant closing By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net BAHAMAS Power & Light’s (BPL) chairman yesterday pledged he is focused on “getting the best possible deal” for its new power plant as its multinational partner called for “the timely closure” of negotiations. Dr Donovan Moxey, pictured, told Tribune Business that BPL’s Board, which he heads, was being “very careful and prudent”

in the long-running talks with Shell North America over the planned multi-fuel power plant for New Providence given that the final agreement would be binding on the Bahamian people for 20-25 years. “This is something we’ve promised to the Bahamian people from day one,” Dr Moxey said. “We’re negotiating a 20-25 year deal that is very important to the Bahamian people and customers of BPL. We’re

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Lockdown ‘seesaw’ simply unsustainable By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net ELEUTHERA’S Chamber of Commerce president has warned the economy “cannot live on the lockdown seesaw for ever”, with The Bahamas now facing a “salvage” as opposed to recovery operation. Thomas Sands, in e-mailed replies to Tribune Business questions just prior to the prime minister’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that Eleuthera has its first

confirmed COVID-19 case, said business confidence had been “shaken” by the latest lockdown and the uncertainty of what will happen once it ends. Calling for a “clearlydefined strategy” to address all COVID-19 eventualities, he added that the primary concern was to ensure that the cycle of “opening up and shutting down” was not repeated since it was simply unsustainable for the private sector and wider economy.

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reinvested earnings, will be hit particularly hard. “The comparable data for The Bahamas and Mauritius were not available for 2019. However, in both SIDS, reinvested earnings constituted an important part of FDI flows in 2018: 34 per cent in The Bahamas and 60 percent in Mauritius.” Jamaica, which suffered a smaller 14.1 percent decline in 2019 FDI inflows, outpaced The Bahamas by attracting some $700m from external sources last year. And UNCTAD warned that Latin American and the Caribbean will likely suffer the world’s greatest post-COVID-19 drop in FDI inflows of between 40 to 55 percent in 2020. “Global FDI flows are forecast to decrease by up to 40 per cent in 2020, from

their 2019 value of $1.54tn. This would bring FDI below $1tn for the first time since 2005. FDI is projected to decrease by a further five to ten percent in 2021 and to initiate a recovery in 2022,” UNCTAD added. All of which creates a picture suggesting that FDI will be unable to sufficiently fill the gap created by the tourism industry shutdown when it comes to attracting enough foreign exchange earnings to support the one:one fixed exchange rate peg with the US dollar. John Rolle, the Central Bank’s governor, last week called for “urgency” in finding an alternative foreign currency earnings source to tourism. In an indication that the Central Bank is concerned about

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Tourism ‘cannot’ return amid surge By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE Bahamas “cannot” relaunch its vital tourism industry until the latest COVID-19 outbreak is contained and a “strict 14-day quarantine” regime in place, a Cabinet minister warned yesterday. Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, warned that “you cannot sell the country” as a potential destination until the current surge in COVID-19 infections - another 20 were confirmed yesterday, taking total active cases to 777 - is brought under control. Describing this as merely “the first step” in reviving The Bahamas’ primary foreign exchange earner, Mr D’Aguilar said the country “still has a couple of months in our quiver of arrows” to get its COVID-19 protocols right ahead of the impending peak winter tourism season that traditionally begins with the late November Thanksgiving holiday. However, with tourism’s return in any significant mass now looking increasingly unlikely before 2021, he added that The Bahamas’ immediate focus

DIONISIO D’AGUILAR beyond this outbreak needed to be placed on developing a quarantine regime that was both sufficiently robust to prevent future COVID-19 surges but did not turn-off potential visitors from travelling. Mr D’Aguilar said the “ideal” scenario might be one where Bahamians did not travel abroad, but the borders were opened to allow tourists to come in. However, acknowledging that the government “cannot mandate that”, the minister agreed that Bahamians had already shown their opposition to any solution that was based on “two sets of rules”, and was discriminatory and unconstitutional. “The desire is to get tourism back up and running

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