08052020 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5, 2020

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‘Don’t kill the fly with the sledgehammer’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

BAHAMIAN businessmen yesterday warned that the two-week national lockdown could be “more devastating than COVID-19 itself”, and urged: “Don’t use a sledgehammer to kill a fly.” Ben Albury, Bahamas Bus and Truck’s general manager, told Tribune Business that the prime minister and the government needed “to get more creative” in balancing commerce and efforts to stamp out so-called virus “hot spots”. Arguing that the private sector and employees had been given too little notice

• Businesses warn lockdown ‘cure’ worse than COVID • Fear next two weeks ‘more devastating than virus’ • ‘We’re saving life, but are destroying livelihoods’ by Dr Hubert Minnis of the lockdown, which begins today, Mr Albury argued that the government had to keep some industries and sectors moving “or else we’re going to starve”. “Just like every other industry it’s going to be devastating,” he told this newspaper of the latest restrictions. “The prime minister just said in the House of Assembly that we cannot BEN ALBURY

ROBERT MYERS

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Foreign reserves enjoy $200m restriction boost By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Central Bank’s governor yesterday said restrictions imposed on capital outflows have boosted the external reserves by $200m to-date, as he pledged: “Losing control of the peg is not an option.” John Rolle, unveiling the regulator’s economic assessment for the 2020 second quarter, argued that the conservation measures implemented during the early stages of the COVID19 pandemic had already paid off as The Bahamas’

• Governor: ‘Losing exchange peg not an option’ • Warns of ‘urgency’ to find new foreign currency • NIB repatriates over $100m overseas investment

JOHN ROLLE

Governor: No tourism rebound fully till 2023 By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Central Bank’s governor yesterday warned the tourism industry might not fully recover from COVID19 until 2023 with the Bahamian economy now projected to contract by 15-20 percent this year. John Rolle, addressing second quarter economic developments, indicated that the regulator had slightly increased its expectations for how much the economy will shrink by this year as he projected that this nation’s proximity to the US will place it at the forefront of any tourism rebound.

“Given the ongoing weight of tourism, the Central Bank now forecasts that the economy could shrink by 15 to 20 percent in 2020, following at least a six-month material pause in activity, with only a gradual recovery to the tourism sector’s normal seasonal pattern,” he said. “It is projected that a complete recovery in global tourism could be delayed through at least 2023. However, proximity to the US could put The Bahamas on a slightly more accelerated recovery path.” Mr Rolle conceded that there could be “a further revision” downwards to The Bahamas’ 2020 gross

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Lockdown: ‘Low hanging fruit’ missed out By NEIL HARTNELL and YOURI KEMP Tribune Business Reporters THE Bahamian private sector was yesterday said to be in discussions with the government to address “low hanging fruit” that can aid the economy amid the latest COVID-19 lockdown. Jeffrey Beckles, the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation’s chief executive, told Tribune Business that food wholesalers and hardware/construction supply stores were critical components that had seemingly been left off the list of essential services allowed to operate over the next two weeks.

JEFFREY BECKLES “We’ve been able to establish a cordial relationship with the government, and have already begun to share with them some ideas as to how to adjust the current environment to help the local economy,” he explained. “It’s a broad-based

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foreign currency reserves closed June at around $2bn. Confirming that a near$1bn drawdown on those reserves, which provide the critical support to the fixed one:one exchange rate peg with the US dollar, is still anticipated over the 2020 second half, Mr Rolle said the Central Bank’s four immediate policy measures had borne fruit. He disclosed that the National Insurance Board’s

(NIB) liquidation of its overseas investment holdings, and their repatriation, had brought “in excess of $100m” in foreign currency back to The Bahamas. And the bar on dividend/profit repatriation by the Canadianowned banks, coupled with the block on foreign portfolio investments by Bahamians, was likely to conserve up to a further $180m.

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Auto dealers ‘crippled’ as sales drop 55.5% By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net AUTO dealers yesterday said they were bracing for the two-week lockdown’s “crippling” effect after suffering an industry-wide 55.5 percent decline in new vehicle sales for the 2020 second quarter. Rick Lowe, the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association’s secretary, told Tribune Business that the national shutdown which began last night had cut-off the “sense of normality” that had begun to creep back into the sector and wider economy following the initial COVID-19 restrictions imposed in March and early April. With new vehicle sales down by more than 200 units year-over-year against 2019 second quarter comparisons, Mr Lowe added that the industry’s near-term performance would depend heavily on how long the latest lockdown lasts amid expectations it will persist beyond the initial fortnight. “It’s not good, but what can you do? People won’t social distance and wear masks,” he said. “We had just started to feel some sense of normality. Things were not exactly like we needed them, but we were heading in the right direction. It’s going to cripple us, quite frankly, and is certainly going to make recovery even harder. “While I understand the process, I’m a little disappointed the decision had to be made. It’s quite discouraging. Sales through June were 177 units for the second quarter as opposed to 398 in the second quarter

last year. It’s been around 400 units for the second quarter for the last several years. “In the first quarter we held our own, but the second quarter was when all this came into play. This quarter depends on how long this [lockdown] has to go on. Businesses just can’t keep paying wages without some revenue, just like the government. You can borrow, but there’s only so much you can borrow.” The latest two-week national lockdown leaves companies facing the prospect once again of having to pay fixed costs, such as rents, utilities and bank payments, with no revenue earnings; employees likely to be temporarily furloughed, adding to the social security burden on government; and Bahamian families already struggling being threatened with more hardship. Fred Albury, the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association’s (BMDA) president, told Tribune Business that the latest lockdown was “a bitter pill to swallow” for the auto industry, individual businesses and the wider economy. He argued that “the innocent are going to suffer for the guilty” - a reference to the numerous Bahamians who raced abroad to COVID-19 hot spots such as Florida once the borders opened on July 1, only to bring the virus back with them. “Hopefully we’ll stay alive. That’s what it has boiled down to,” Mr Albury said. “Money can always be made, but you can never

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