07302018 business

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business@tribunemedia.net

MONDAY, JULY 30, 2018

$4.94 Bahamas to miss ‘upward swing’ in GDP on VAT hike

A FORMER finance minister fears The Bahamas may miss out “on a really good upward swing” in GDP growth as a result of the VAT rate hike and other budget measures. James Smith, pictured, also an ex-Central Bank governor, told Tribune Business that “all the macroeconomic indicators” indicated The Bahamas was poised for a strong economic rebound prior to the latest fiscal consolidation moves. While acknowledging that it might take until year-end to determine the precise impact of 12 percent VAT, Mr Smith said there was already “anecdotal evidence” that Bahamian companies had decided to hold-off on further investment and expansion “until the dust settles”. He also echoed warnings that VAT’s initial inflationary impact could be made worse by the so-called “trade wars” between the US and other large economies, particularly China, given that the imposition of tariffs by both sides will drive up prices for the vast majority of goods imported by The Bahamas. Mr Smith, who held the finance ministry post between 2002-2007, reiterated that he would have held off increasing the VAT rate by 60 percent to see what impact Baha Mar’s full opening had on the Bahamian economy and government revenues. “What is really unfortunate is that we were on the verge of a really good turnaround, an upward swing, because all the macroeconomic indicators were looking good,” Mr Smith told Tribune Business. “It’s been detracted from in a way because investors are still waiting for the dust to settle. “The greatest impact of a tax hike is not sometimes the increase in prices across the board, but the attack on confidence of consumers and businesses. The first reflex action is to stop and see, meaning holding off

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Tax hike ‘shockwaves’ hit high-end properties By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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OREIGN investors were yesterday said to have halted construction projects, with some threatening to sell their highend properties, as the “shockwaves” from budget tax changes hit home. Robert Myers, the Organisation for Responsible Governance’s (ORG) principal, told Tribune Business that much of The Bahamas’ second home market “is dead” unless the government “clarifies” the real property tax hikes stemming from the changed “owner-occupied property” definition. He described the Real Property Tax Act

* Investors halt expansions, looking to sell * Second home market ‘dead’ without cap * Gives impression Bahamas ‘radical’ on tax

ROBERT MYERS amendments, which accompanied the budget, as “bad policy” that could undermine GDP growth given its potential impact on high-end communities in

New Providence as well as the Family Islands that are especially reliant on the second home industry. Many realtors have suggested that the impact from the changes is too early to determine, but Mr Myers, whose construction, landscaping and other businesses draw heavily on a client base provided by western New Providence’s gated communities, said they were already undermining confidence and certainty among many second homeowners. While acknowledging there was nothing wrong with the government seeking more taxes from the

A CABINET minister yesterday revealed he is pushing for a “threshold mechanism” to address a regulatory “quirk” that aids rogue pilots in the Bahamian aviation industry. Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, told Tribune Business he was eyeing a system where the number of monthly flights was used to determine whether a pilot was offering commercial services and carrying paying passengers.

DIONISIO D’AGUILAR

By NEIL HARTNELL and NATARIO McKENZIE Tribune Business Reporters

purpose of a flight, describing this as “a problem that needs to be addressed” given that it provides obvious cover for “hackers” and illegal charter operators that lack the necessary licences. “There is this kind of quirk in the regulations that allows the pilot to determine the purpose of the transport, and if the people they are flying are

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second home market, the ORG principal warned that the budget-induced changes had effectively crossed a fine line and were threatening to “scare people off”. He warned that the impact would trickle down to Bahamian businesses and employees reliant on this sector, with the magnitude of the tax hike giving some foreign investors this nation is “radical” when it comes to taxation. “We must make sure the budget doesn’t create any hurdles when it comes to the ease and cost of doing

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* Minister targets ‘quirk’ that aids hackers * Says: ‘Let’s deal with this once and for all’ * Wants industry ‘legal, not out of business’ Disclosing that he had instructed the Bahamas Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA) to deal with the problems posed by so-called hackers “once and for all”, Mr D’Aguilar said a benchmark related to flight frequency was required to eliminate what he described as a regulatory loophole. The Minister explained that the pilots themselves are responsible for determining, and declaring, the

Stubborn jobless rate shows ‘growth focus’ need THE Bahamas needs a “more significant focus” on economic growth to further dent a national unemployment rate that remains stubbornly flat - and high at ten percent. Robert Myers, the Organisation for Responsible Governance’s (ORG) principal, yesterday suggested the May Labour Force survey results show that while the economy is growing fast enough to absorb new workforce entrants, it is not expanding quickly enough to achieve both this and reduce the existing numbers of unemployed. With one in ten Bahamians seeking work still unable to find it, Mr Myers called for a renewed focus by government on proGDP growth policies that improve the ease, and reduce the cost, of doing business for local firms. “In my opinion, clearly the focus on growth needs to be more significant,” he told Tribune Business, “and that means focus on the ease and cost of doing business must be more significant. “It’s an indication that GDP is not growing fast enough. We obviously need to see that [unemployment] number decline. There’s a correlation between employment and GDP, with growth in the latter being a good thing. “We need GDP growth to be about 5.5 percent, but we’re not going to get there overnight. Ideally, you’d

‘Flights threshold’ to combat rogue pilots By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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Oil explorer extends JV talks one month By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net AN OIL explorer has touted the one-month extension of exclusive talks with a “major oil company” over a Bahamian well joint venture as “a clear indication of progress”. Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC), in a statement to the markets, said the unnamed oil company had agreed to extend their confidentiality and exclusivity agreement by another month until September

* BPC: ‘Clear indication of progress’ * But no guarantee of deal success * Now have until September’s start 1, 2018. The two parties had signed a three-month deal on May 1, 2018, which was due to expire on Wednesday. Their agreement allows the two sides to extend the exclusivity period on a month-by-month basis for up to three months. With the first option exercised, two more potentially

remain over talks on forming a joint venture to spud an exploratory well in Bahamian waters southwest of Andros, close to the maritime boundary with Cuba. Simon Potter, the Bahamas Petroleum Company’s (BPC) chief executive, did not respond to calls and messages seeking comment

before press time last night. However, he said in a company statement: “The election to extend the period where BPC and the counterparty are to work exclusivity together on technical and commercial matters for a further month is a clear indication of continued progress in our efforts to conclude a transaction covering our highly prospective assets in The Bahamas.” BPC has already received cash payments totalling $750,000 for the three-month exclusivity

to-date, and is now set to receive a further $250,000 for the additional month’s extension. It’s agreement with the “oil major” requires that it be paid $250,000 per month. “The terms of the agreement (as extended) require BPC and the counterparty to continue to work exclusively together to finalise a detailed technical evaluation of the company’s licences, and seek to develop a

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