07292019 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

MONDAY, JULY 29, 2019

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Business optimism up but profits fall for 57% By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

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ESPITE 57 percent of businesses suffering a decline in first-half profits, a Central Bank survey has found that nearly-two-thirds believe the economy will improve during 2019’s final months. The findings, released as part of the regulator’s analysis of developments during the six months to end-June, gave a mixed picture of both the Bahamian private sector’s performance and outlook for the

• Nearly two-thirds eye late 2019 improvement • As 68% suffer rise in first half operating costs • Yet half expect employment will increase

JOHN ROLLE

Governor: GDP growth too low for jobs to ‘gush’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamas must “aspire to higher” GDP growth rates in the two to three percent range if it wants to see “new jobs gushing rather than trickling”, the Central Bank’s governor is urging. John Rolle, addressing a briefing on 2019 first half economic developments, warned that this nation needed to exceed its projected medium term growth rate on a sustained basis “to see a more accelerated reduction” in an unemployment rate that has remained

stubbornly over ten percent for more than a decade. “I would say that if we can get the rate comfortably and consistently above the two to three percent range, we will make more of a dent there,” he explained of the link between GDP growth and unemployment. “One has to recognise we need to be growing the economy ahead of what’s happening with the population and the diversity of its needs. There is room, with growth rates below two percent, to see some reduction in unemployment but, to see a more accelerated

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Caps, no interest paid on digital B$ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE digital Bahamian dollar will be non-interest earning with accounts capped at a certain amount to protect the financial system’s stability, the Central Bank’s governor has revealed. John Rolle, in a briefing on 2019 first half economic developments, said Bahamians are “not going to earn interest on sand dollars” and

will not be able to “put more than a certain amount of sand dollars in your wallet” as a means to safeguard the financial system’s integrity. The term “sand dollars” refers to the name given to the initiative to develop a digital version of the Bahamian dollar, “Project Sand Dollar”, with the Central Bank and its chosen provider, NZIA Ltd, now working to launch the test project in Exuma.

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remainder of the year. John Rolle, the Central Bank’s governor, described the results as “varied” and added: “Most surveyed businesses noted higher costs in their operations but stable to improved operating conditions. “The outlook held by most firms was for stable to further improved conditions over the remainder of 2019, with lowered inflation expectations and healthier

employment outcomes than in the first half of 2019.” Increased operating costs are likely to have been driven by a combination of the VAT rate increase to 12 percent; the “pass through” effects of higher global oil prices in terms of energy and transportation costs; and potentially higher import prices driven by the US-China “trade war” and tariff hikes.

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Cut ‘terrifying’ bad loan rate by over 50% By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Central Bank’s governor wants to further cut the “terrifying” 8.7 percent loan delinquency rate by more than half despite it having fallen to its lowest level in a decade. While describing the consistent decline in nonperforming bank loans as “very encouraging”, John Rolle said even a four percent delinquency ratio was “not complimentary” by international standards. Pointing out that one consequence of high loan delinquency rates is higher interest rates and fees for Bahamian borrowers who are in good standing, he added that the proportion of outstanding bank credit in default locally is still more than double the ratio that

would strike fear into developed country banks and their regulators. Mr Rolle said a “comfort zone” for nonperforming credit, which represents loans that are 90 days or more past due, would be “a rate that is less than half of what we are experiencing” now. Based on the governor’s comments, this implies a rate of less than four percent - a ratio not seen by the Bahamian commercial banking industry since before the 2008-2009 recession. “Today The Bahamas has seen a very encouraging drop in the delinquency rate in terms of the loans that are more than 90 days without a payment being made,” Mr Rolle said during the Central Bank’s latest quarterly

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