WEDNESDAY, JULY 13, 2016
business@tribunemedia.net
Moody’s now challenges Govt over debt ratios
CABLE BAHAMAS HEAD OFFICE
Cable targets 14% EBITDA growth without NewCo Seeks 9% revenue growth over same five years Launches $50m issue that goes outside Bahamas Investors to gain returns from services to NewCo By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net CABLE Bahamas yesterday disclosed it is targeting a 14 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings before taxation over the next five years - a goal that excludes potential benefits from its stake in the nation’s second mobile provider. Barry Williams, Cable Bahamas’ chief financial officer, said in a statement issued last night that the company is seeking 9 per cent revenue growth over the same period to 2020, as it moves to deliver greater shareholder returns from newly-opened growth opportunities. The BISX-listed communications provider is also expanding its capital raising into the Caribbean by seeking 40 per cent of its latest $50 million preference share issue from regional investors beyond the Bahamas’ borders. Moving rapidly to capitalise on the issuance of the second mobile licence to NewCo2015 Ltd, Cable Bahamas has engaged Scotiabank (Bahamas) and its affiliate, Scotia Investments Jamaica to raise $20 million in US dollar financing. The preference share issue launches today, with RoyalFidelity Merchant Bank & Trust seeking to raise the $30 million balance ($20 million in Bahamian dollars, $10 million in US dollars) in the local capital markets. See PG B2
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net MOODY’S is now questioning another key fiscal projection by Prime Minister Perry Christie’s government, warning that the Bahamas’ uncertain outlook makes it hard to forecast how high - and when - the debt-toGDP ratio will peak. The rating agency, which is threatening to potentially downgrade the Bahamas’ sovereign creditworthiness to ‘junk’ status by end-August, also joined calls for the Government to “rein in” its spending. Providing more detail on the areas it will assess to determine if another Bahamas downgrade is warranted, the New Yorkbased credit rating agency also plans to examine whether further revenue measures are needed to boost fiscal consolidation. Moody’s latest issues and concerns were detailed in a July 5, 2016, missive released to the international capital markets some four days after announcing it was placing the Bahamas’ sovereign rating under a twomonth review. The ‘credit opinion’ indicates it has clearly taken note of the
THE dangers presented by correspondent bank ‘de-risking’ must be “carefully managed”, the Central Bank’s governor has warned, urging Bahamasbased institutions to ensure they have a “back-up plan”. John Rolle, who is due to address Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) members on the issue today, told Tribune Business that a sound regulatory regime was key to combating the withdrawal of correspondent banking services. Emphasising that individual institutions needed to understand their role, and implement the necessary safeguards, Mr Rolle said all Bahamian regulatory agencies were working to strengthen “areas of risk” in the country’s money laundering and terror financing defences. Amid an increasing tendency by developed country banks to terminate correspondent relationships with their Caribbean counterparts, Mr Rolle told Tribune Business: “I think the most we can say at this stage is it has to be carefully managed in terms of making sure all the stakeholders understand what is expected of us in terms of the antimoney laundering regime.” Regulatory deficiencies, coupled with increased compliance costs and the See PG B3
But PM says ratio had already ‘peaked’ Agency to focus on expenditure ‘rein in’ Bahamas averages just 0.3% growth in past 4 years major revision to the Government’s 2014-2015 fiscal year performance, where initial estimates of a $198 million deficit ended up a year later at $381 million. This was a near $200 million ‘difference’ that placed the 2014-2015 deficit some $95 million above the $286 million ‘target’ for the year, a development that threatens to undermine trust and confidence in the Government’s numbers. The implications have not es-
caped Moody’s, which said: “On the fiscal front, during the presentation of the 2016-2017 Budget, the fiscal deficit for 2014-2015 was revised to 4.4 per cent of GDP from a previous estimate of 2.3 per cent. “This was due to a revision of expenditures, which were increased by 1.6 per cent of GDP, while revenues were 0.5 per cent of GDP lower than previously estimated. Authorities estimate that the fiscal deficit in 20152016 came at 1.7 per cent of GDP.” The latter projection has yet to be confirmed or tested, and Moody’s queried another of the Christie administration’s fiscal assumptions - namely whether the Government’s direct debtto-GDP ratio “peaked” during the recently-closed 2015-2016 fiscal year. The rating agency explained that the increasingly uncertain GDP growth and economic outlook made it virtually impossible to determine when the Bahamas’ debt-to-GDP ratio will peak, and at what level. “In terms of debt dynamics, the Government’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached 64.4 per cent in 2014-2015, up from 60.2 per cent See PG B2
Bank chief’s warning on ‘government interference’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net FIDELITY Bank (Bahamas) chief executive has warned that “government interference” threatens to impact industry profitability, especially should it move ahead with a revised Homeowners Protection Bill. Anwer Sunderji, writing in the BISX-listed commercial bank’s just-released 2015 annual report, said its Board and management were “less sanguine” about the future following a year in which total comprehensive income jumped 47 per cent to over $20 million. “Rising competition, govern-
Correspondent de-risk requires ‘back up plan’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
‘Hard’ to say when, and how high, debt-to-GDP goes
Governor: Issue ‘must be carefully managed’
JOHN ROLLE
$4.05 $4.20 $4.06
$4.06
Concern over Homeowner Protection Bill return Mortgage Relief coincides with delinquency rise ment interference, and prospect for elections in 2017 are negative factors. We expect 2016 results to be marginally better than 2015,” he warned shareholders. Asked by Tribune Business what he meant by ‘government interference’, Mr Sunderji yes-
terday indicated he was alluding largely to the Homeowners Protection Bill, which the Christie administration is looking to resuscitate. He warned that its passage into law might encourage Bahamas-based commercial banks “to simply leave the mortgage business”, a development that would worsen the very housing market crisis it is intended to help cure. The Bill, which was brought to the House early in the Christie administration’s term in office, but never made it into law, is likely to have undergone some subsequent revisions. However, in its early See PG B4
Union to Govt: Force Cable into industrial talks Majority NewCo ownership ‘gives it the power’ BCPOU chief warns Gov’t of ballot box impact Calls on it to prove ‘labour friendly’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Government was yesterday urged to use its temporary majority ownership of the new mobile operator to “force” Cable Bahamas into industrial agreement negotiations, amid warnings that failing to do so would cost it votes. Bernard Evans, the Bahamas Communications and Public Officers Union (BCPOU) president, told Tribune Business it was now time for the Christie administration to ‘live up’ to its pledge that it was a friend of labour. He expressed particular alarm that Cable Bahamas, which has Board and management control at NewCo2015 Ltd, the nation’s second mobile operator, had hired a team of See PG B3
BERNARD EVANS