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MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2020
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True COVID revival ‘not until after 2024’
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Lucayan on high alert for ‘unrest’
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
B
AHAMIAN economic output will not recover to pre-COVID-19 levels “until after 2024”, Moody’s has warned, in a stark illustration of the economic devastation unleashed by the pandemic. The rating agency, in a “credit opinion” that accompanied its decision to cut The Bahamas’ creditworthiness by two notches to “junk” status, is forecasting that the economy will take up to five years to recover from this year’s 16 percent to 20 percent contraction. Its assessment means Bahamian gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the size and value of what the economy produces, will only return to 2019 levels in 2025 - a prediction suggesting it may take half a decade for this country to fully recover from the growth and jobs lost to the pandemic.
• Moody’s: Economy smaller in five years than 2019 • Pandemic to create ‘lasting fiscal deterioration’ • Faster growth ‘only way we can save ourselves’
And Moody’s also warned that the COVID-19 crisis, complete with its tourism and economic shutdown, has inflicted “lasting deterioration” on The Bahamas’ national debt burden and associated interest costs with “stabilisation” - rather than any meaningful improvement - in the fiscal outlook only occurring in 2022. While the country’s debtto-GDP ratio is forecast to peak at 85 percent come June 2021, Moody’s is predicting that it will remain stubbornly above 80 percent through 2024 with a very gradual rather than sharp decline. This compares to pre-COVID-19 forecasts that the debt-to-GDP ratio would stabilise at 65 percent, and is much higher than the 72-73 percent threshold estimated as recently as April 2020 when the pandemic
VAT’s ‘blood from stone’ for commercial landlords By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A BAHAMIAN realtor says the VAT Department sought to get “blood from a stone” by rejecting pleas from commercial property landlords to switch to cashbased filings/payments at COVD-19’s peak. David Morley, Morley Real Estate’s president, told Tribune Business the sole difficulty he had encountered on behalf of landlord clients was the refusal by the Department of Inland Revenue’s (DIR) VAT unit to temporarily move away from accrual-based
payments and filings given the uncertainty over whether tenants would pay their rental bills. Describing it as the only government agency he dealt with that had proven “uncooperative” in working with the business community during the pandemic’s height, Mr Morley is predicting a “12-month recovery” before business volumes return to pre-COVID-19 shutdown levels with commercial property landlords continuing to provide “concessions” to struggling tenants. He added that he had extended his recovery
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Ex-casino worker faces jail 12 years after ‘theft’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A FORMER Crystal Palace casino worker has been ordered to report to Fox Hill prison so he can begin serving a near-three year sentence for a $20,000 counterfeit money/theft offence committed almost 12 years ago. Appeal Justice Jon Isaacs, writing a unanimous verdict, ordered that Alexander Johnson turn himself into the Royal Bahamas Police Force (RBPF) before last weekend for transportation
to the Bahamas Department of Corrections after the Court of Appeal upheld his conviction. Johnson, who held the position of “main banker” at the now-demolished Cable Beach-based casino, was found guilty of attempting to steal $20,000 from his then-employer and trying to cover-up the theft by replacing the funds taken with counterfeit US$100 bills. Appeal justice Isaacs drew heavily on the evidence laid out by Magistrate Carolyn
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took global hold. Moody’s added that the increased debt burden, coupled with much-reduced economic activity and tax revenues, will also keep the government’s debt servicing (interest) costs far higher than historical levels when measured as a percentage of its revenue income. While interest costs will peak at 22.6 percent of revenues for the new 2020-2021 fiscal year that is due to start on Wednesday, the rating agency is forecasting that they will remain above previous peaks of around 15 percent through 2024, dropping to around 17 percent in that year. Detailing a grim outlook, and long road to full recovery, Moody’s said that while The Bahamas might experience a sharp 2021 rebound that recovers around half
the GDP output it will likely lose this year, it would swiftly return to the low-growth rates it has endured since the 2008-2009 recession. “We expect economic activity to rebound significantly in 2021, with real GDP growth reaching 12 percent,” Moody’s said. “This forecast is supported in part by the low base of comparison provided by 2020, but also by our expectation that tourism flows will pick up significantly in 2021 and total around 60-70 percent of 2019 levels. “This expectation pivots on our assumption of economic normalisation in the US, which provides around 80 percent of air arrivals. Additionally, we expect several foreign direct investment (FDI) related projects
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MICHAEL SCOTT QC
OBIE FERGUSON
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
reiterated that the Grand Lucayan and its Board had “bent over backwards” to treat terminated staff fairly by offering greater compensation than is required by the Employment Act. However, Obie Ferguson, the Bahamas Hotel Managerial Association’s (BHMA) president, told this newspaper he “doesn’t have a clue” about any purported industrial unrest and added: “We intend to go to the Supreme Court.” The Trades Union Congress (TUC) chief, and labour attorney, revealed that the BHMA will file as early as today for an injunction to halt the dismissal of its members and employees
THE Grand Lucayan will today be placed on high alert due to expected industrial unrest over the termination of 170-plus staff, with its chairman pledging: “I’m going to nip this in the bud.” Michael Scott QC told Tribune Business he will respond with “ruthless resolve” after being informed that union activists were planning a 21-person protest at the governmentowned resort even though it currently remains closed. Warning that any agitators will be confronted by security staff and the police, and “escorted off the property”, he warned unionists against such measures and
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