06262020 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

FRIDAY, JUNE 26, 2020

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confident over Bahamas is downgraded DPM beating $1.3bn deficit on ‘extraordinary beating’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

T

HE “extraordinary beating” inflicted upon the tourism industry by COVID-19 was critical in Moody’s decision yesterday to strip The Bahamas of its “investment grade” credit rating, the deputy prime minister says. K Peter Turnquest, responding to the rating agency’s move to slash The Bahamas’ sovereign creditworthiness by two notches to “Ba2”, told Tribune Business there was little the government can do to improve this situation in the short-term given that the priority remains protecting

• Moody’s cuts nation ‘two notches’ to ‘junk’ • Predicts economy to shrink up to 20% • DPm hopeful of Thanksgiving revival

K PETER TURNQUEST

families, businesses and the wider economy against the worst of the pandemic’s fall-out. Pointing out that The Bahamas was far from alone in suffering downgrades as a result of COVID-19, Mr Turnquest said the government was still predicting an economic revival will begin in late November 2020 when the Thanksgiving holiday signals the start of the winter tourism season. He admitted, though, that this forecast could easily be derailed by the multiple

“unknowns” surrounding COVID-19 - particularly the timing and strength of the US travel market rebound, given that the country accounts for 82 percent of all visitors to this nation. “Our economy is affected more than most in that we are so tied to tourism, which has taken an extraordinary beating,” Mr Turnquest told Tribune Business. “In the eyes of the rating agencies, that increases the risk.

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Over $11m spent on Lucayan terminations

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE government will have spent more than $11m on employee termination packages and support by the time it closes the Grand Lucayan’s sale, it was revealed yesterday. Michael Scott QC, the resort’s chairman, told Tribune Business that the latest separation round involving around 175 employees will cost “about $3m” in due severance pay and benefits after the hotel confirmed this newspaper’s revelations that terminations had begun ahead of completing its sale to the ITM Group/Royal Caribbean joint venture. Lucayan Renewal Holdings, the special purpose vehicle (SPV) that holds the resort, said in a statement that prior employee

• Hotel chair reveals $3m in latest round • First 50 of 170-plus leave ahead of sale • Union president warns of legal action

MICHAEL SCOTT QC

OBIE FERGUSON

severance and COVID19 support packages had cost the government some $8.542m. It broke this down into $6.705m paid to workers during the two voluntary separation exercises carried out in 2019, and $1.837m in vacation bonuses,

emergency welfare fund payments and NIB benefits paid during the pandemic. “The formula for the payments to the presently departing employees, some of whom have been employed with the hotel for 20 years, is based upon the

Financial sector faces ‘heightened challenge’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Central Bank is warning that the Bahamian financial services industry faces “heightened challenges” with sector employment levels falling for the fifth consecutive year in 2019. Unveiling its latest annual survey of the industry’s economic contribution, the regulator said attrition as a result of international tax and anti-financial crime initiatives continues to chip away at its size, competitiveness and relative importance

to the Bahamian economy. “The 2019 survey of The Bahamas’ financial services sector revealed that, in expenditure terms and tax revenues, the sector’s economic contribution was slightly expanded,” the Central Bank said. “Yet heightened challenges remained, with further trend-reduction in employment and in the number of supervised financial institutions (SFIs), particularly in international operations. “Reflective of the ongoing automation of

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Union chief: 2020 a tourism write-off By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE hotel union’s president has described this year as a write-off for the tourism industry while voicing optimism that 2021 could be “a banner year” for the sector based on pent-up COVID-19 demand. Darrin Woods, the Bahamas Hotel, Catering and Allied Workers Union’s (BHCAWU), told Tribune Business it was “hard to determine” how much tourism business this nation will attract during the first

DARRIN WOODS few weeks following the reopening of the borders to commercial travel on July 1. With resorts such as Baha Mar, Sandals Royal Bahamian and San Salvador’s

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same ministerial-approved calculation as that of the former employees who received separation packages totaling $6.705m under the two voluntary separation exercises held in 2019,” Lucayan Renewal Holdings said. It originally had 419 staff when it took over. Add in the $3m due to be paid out to the newlydeparting staff takes the total employee severance/ support outlay to more than $11.5m in less than two years since the government acquired the Grand Lucayan from Hutchison Whampoa in 2018.

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THE deputy prime minister yesterday voiced optimism that the government will beat its $1.327bn fiscal target for the upcoming 2020-2021 fiscal year as he reassured that The Bahamas’ debt burden is not yet “unbearable”. K Peter Turnquest, speaking after Moody’s stripped The Bahamas of its “investment grade” credit rating with a two-notch downgrade, expressed confidence that the Minnis administration can secure a repeat of its 2018-2019 fiscal performance when it beat that year’s deficit target. “The good news is that we have beaten the estimates before, so there’s no reason to believe we won’t do better this time assuming the economy does turn as we anticipate it to,” he told Tribune Business. “The big unknown is when this virus will be taken under control, or a vaccine comes into play, and it’s still unknown how visitors will react to the current environment with the virus still active, but we’ll see.” The government’s 20202021 budget forecast and economic projections are based on tourism’s revival starting with the endNovember Thanksgiving holiday, which traditionally signals the start of the peak winter season (see other article on Page 1B). Mr Turnquest said that while The Bahamas “has to be optimistic and positive” that these predictions will work out, “we obviously have to be concerned, and very watchful” over the rapid surge in COVID-19 infections in this country’s major source market, the US, which supplies 82 percent of annual visitors. Pointing out that the government has already adjusted

its COVID-19 health protocols to require incoming travellers to produce a negative PCR swab test before they will be admitted to The Bahamas, having initially sought to waive this requirement ahead of the borders’ re-opening on July 1, Mr Turnquest acknowledged that this country was ahead of the US - with its 2.2m cases - in controlling the virus. “It is a concern,” he reiterated of the present US situation, and especially in the so-called “Sunshine State”. “Most of our market comes from Florida or transits through Florida. Either way we can anticipate some negative short-term reaction to that. “That’s built into our Budget projections. Hopefully by the time we get to Thanksgiving we either have a vaccine or a calming of the situation because people are prepared to deal with it. No matter what we do, the reality is if our source market is not performing at the same standard we will have issues. “Our whole objective is to make sure we coincide with the recovery in the US so that once they’re clear, we’re clear, and there’s no uncertainty but they’re still having challenges.” Mr Turnquest revealed that the government is unlikely to tap the international capital markets for the foreign currency debt financing required to cover the projected $1.327bn deficit until fall 2020, adding that the reduction in yields on its existing debt was “a little bit of good news”. Moody’s yesterday revealed that the yields on the government’s foreign currency bond issue due to mature in 2028 had dropped from 11.6 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in May to 8.2 percent currently, which is still higher than the six percent

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