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TUESDAY, JUNE 6, 2017
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Moody’s gives alarm on ‘much weaker’ Bahamas By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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oody’s yesterday expressed alarm at the “significantly worse” fiscal deterioration unveiled by the Government’s 2017-2018 Budget, although its lead analyst indicated no ‘junk’ downgrade for the Bahamas is imminent. The credit rating agency, clearly taken aback by the Minnis administration’s much-revised fiscal forecasts, warned the global markets that its planned $722 million borrowing showed this nation’s fiscal strength was “much weaker” than it had bargained for. Forced by surprise to adjust its own fiscal forecasts, Moody’s wrote-off its previous projection that the Bahamas’ direct government debt-to-GDP ratio would stabilise below 70 per cent, instead
* $722M BORROW SHOWS ‘SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE’ POSITION * RATING AGENCY TAKEN ABACK BY NEW ESTIMATES * BUT NO DOWNGRADE IMMINENT, SAYS ANALYST * YET DEFICIT TARGETS ‘SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC’ estimating that this will continue to climb through the 2019-2020 fiscal year - in contrast with the Government’s forecast that it will peak near 73 per cent in 2017-2018 Warning that the Bahamas’ debt-to-GDP ratio was the highest for any country it had rated one notch above so-called ‘junk’ status, Moody’s said this nation was seeking to achieve fiscal consolidation from “a more negative starting-off point” - especially given its vulnerability to major hurricanes in the absence of funding reserves to
cover damages. “The Budget indicates that the Bahamas’ fiscal outlook is significantly worse than what we had incorporated into our current projections,” the credit rating agency said. “Revised government estimates point to a higher deficit for fiscal 2017, and deficits (rather than surpluses) in the coming years. “Wider, serial deficits will lead to rising debt and delayed debt stabilisation. Whereas we previously had expected that debt would stabilise this year, we now forecast
that debt-to-GDP will rise until 2019, peaking above 70 per cent of GDP. The combination of significantly worse fiscal deterioration and delayed stabilisation of debt metrics puts downward pressure on the Bahamas’ credit profile.” Moody’s said the new government’s estimate of a $500 million deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year included “revenue underperformance and expenditure slippage” under the former Christie
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Landfill bidder: Assess Doctors targets stem offer before new RFP cell therapy launch By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamian consortium that bid on the New Providence landfill management contract yesterday urged the new Government to assess its proposal before launching a new tender process. Ginny McKinney, principal of Wastenot, told Tribune Business that she and other members of the 10-strong Waste Resources Development Group (WRDG) were hoping they could at least discuss the contents of their bid with the Minnis administration given the time and money invested in it. Disclosing that she, personally, had submitted five landfill-related proposals that never received a response from any administration, Ms McKinney told Tribune
* BAHAMIAN GROUP: ‘WE DON’T WANT A BYE’ * URGES GOV’T TO LOOK AT PROPOSALS * MINISTERS HINT NEW TENDER PROCESS Business: “We don’t want a bye because we’re Bahamian; we’re not asking to be accepted. We’re asking for our proposal to be looked at.” WRDG, which has partnered with Providence Advisors, the Bahamian investment house, was one of two bids - the other being foreign - to respond to the former Christie administration’s eightday Request for Proposal (RFP)
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Debt gobbles up 27% of Budget By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net MORE than 27 per cent of the Government’s total recurrent spending in the 2017-2018 Budget is going towards repaying principal or interest on the Bahamas’ $7 billion-plus debt mountain. Budget figures reveal that the $292.485 million ear-
* INTEREST, REPAYMENT 2 LARGEST LINE ITEMS * BUT DEBT SERVICING ‘NOT IN DANGER ZONE YET’ * EX-MINISTER RECALLS 40% DEBT TRIGGER SEE PAGE 5
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net DOCTORS Hospital plans to launch stem cell therapy and enter the primary healthcare market during its current financial year, after profits for the year to endJanuary 2017 increased five-fold. The BISX-listed healthcare provider said it planned to launch both initiatives at its Bahamas Medical Centre facility on Blake Road, having received the necessary approvals for one stem cell programme and another “in its final stages”. Doctors Hospital’s 2017 annual report did not identify the types of stem cell treatment involved, but said: “It is envisioned that stem cell therapy will occur at the facility [Bahamas Medical
* ALSO MOVING INTO PRIMARY CARE * PROFITS UP FIVE-FOLD FOR 16-17 * CAPITAL SPEND DOUBLES TO $7M Centre] in fiscal 2018, with one programme already receiving the necessary approvals and the second programme in its final stages of assessment and approval...... “We anticipate that in fiscal 2018 we will launch one of our primary care centres at this location, supported by increased specialist services to best serve the neighbouring communities.” Joe Krukowski, Doctors Hos-
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$4.15 BAHAMAS FACING MULTIBILLION DEBT RISE EVERY FIVE YEARS * EX-MINISTER ‘SAW THIS COMING IN ‘04’ * DEBT, DEFICIT WORRIES SPARKED VAT STUDIES * GDP GROWTH, STRUCTURAL WOES KEY ISSUES By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net SUCCESSIVE governments will continue adding $1 billion-plus to the national debt every five years without structural reforms and greater GDP growth, an ex-finance minister saying: “I saw this coming 13 years ago.” James Smith, also a former Central Bank governor, told Tribune Business he was struck by the similarities in “tone” between the 2017-2018 Budget presentation and the first one produced by the former Christie administration in 2012-2013. Both blamed the former government for leaving the Bahamas in a ‘fiscal crisis’, and with unpaid bills totalling nine-figure sums, which Mr Smith argued was evidence of structural deficiencies and the absence of economic growth - not “mismanagement”. “The speech was almost of the tone you would have heard in 2012,” Mr Smith said of last week’s 20172018 Budget presentation. “The incoming government in 2012, I think, said something to the effect of: ‘Look at what they left us with; all these unpaid bills.” The Christie administration, upon taking office, al-
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