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THURSDAY, MAY 28, 2020
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$10bn debt blow-out ‘our worst nightmare’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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RIVATE sector executives yesterday warned “our worst nightmare has come true” after the government unveiled record deficit spending that will carry the national debt past the $10bn mark by June 2022. K Peter Turnquest, deputy prime minister, told the House of Assembly that the $1.3bn deficit projected for the upcoming 2020-2021 budget year represented what he described as “the biggest fiscal response in 100 years” to
• $1.3bn deficit ‘biggest response in 100 years’ • COVID-19 produces $900m revenue plunge • Private sector frets: ‘Who will pay it back?’
K PETER TURNQUEST
the twin multi-billion dollar challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricane Dorian. Unveiling a record fiscal deficit, with revenues down by more than $900m compared to the previous fiscal year’s forecast, Mr Turnquest said the government had elected to undertake massive borrowing to keep the economy “afloat” rather than let it be overwhelmed by COVID-19’s economic lockdown and 30
percent-plus unemployment rate. Repeating several times that the Bahamas needed to seize the moment to “transform a crisis into opportunity”, he argued that the government “cannot be tepid in our response” and adopt the “do nothing or do too little” approach as this would leave the economy in a “much less desirable
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Economy’s shrink to exceed $1.3bn deficit
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
THE Bahamian economy will this year shrink by a greater amount than the government’s projected $1.3bn deficit for the upcoming 2020-2021 fiscal year, the deputy prime minister revealed yesterday. K Peter Turnquest, unveiling the 2020-2021 budget in the House of Assembly, said the Central Bank of The Bahamas is projecting that the economy will contract by 12 percent this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic combined with the lingering effects of Hurricane Dorian. This shrinkage, equivalent to just under $1.4bn, is greater than the $1.327bn deficit that the government is projected to incur as a result of the massive borrowing designed to prevent
50% cash use fall ‘ambitious, not impossible’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE government’s target to reduce Bahamian society’s cash use by 50 percent within the next five years is “ambitious but not impossible”, a well-known banker said yesterday. Gowon Bowe, Fidelity Bank (Bahamas) chief financial officer, told Tribune Business that the COVID-19 lockdown had shown such rapid payments system modernisation
• Bahamas GDP to contract 12% this year • Fiscal consolidation thrown off to 26-27 • DPM hopeful for ‘V-shaped’ recovery the Bahamian economy’s collapse as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown. The deficit is itself equal to 11.6 percent of GDP. The deputy prime minister, meanwhile, conceded that COVID-19 had blown the government further off course from achieving the 0.5 percent budget deficit target mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act. He warned that this will now be achieved no earlier than the 2026-2027 fiscal year, pushing it out another two years from the revised postDorian fiscal estimates. “Early estimates project that the government is now likely to achieve its 0.5 was achievable given how quickly Bahamians had adjusted to settling transactions by digital means. And he revealed had had been “shocked” when he learnt that the BISXlisted bank was still settling the majority of its bills by cheque when it should be “setting the example” for businesses and individuals to switch to electronic payments. Speaking after K Peter Turnquest, deputy prime minister, also disclosed that the government was aiming to cut cheque usage by 50 percent within three years, Mr Bowe said: “It is certainly not an unrealistic target. Is it ambitious? Yes, but the last two months have demonstrated it’s not impossible...
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Budget’s $55m for small firms ‘too moderate’
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
THE government was yesterday urged to almost double the small business financing provided in the 2020-2021 budget to $100m, a sector consultant arguing that the planned allocation was “too moderate”. Mark A Turnquest, pictured, of Mark A Turnquest Consulting, told Tribune Business that the $55m made available by the government was “a help but not enough” even though it includes a further $30m
for the Business Continuity Loan initiative. That allocation represents a 150 percent increase on the initial $20m provided to help micro, small and medium-sized businesses ride out the
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percent fiscal ratio no earlier than 2026-2027 - some two years beyond the first Fiscal Adjustment Plan,” Mr Turnquest said. “During this time, we are keen to ensure that our recovery is supported by the necessary fiscal reforms in the important areas of taxation, pension and state-owned enterprises operations, and the removal of structural obstacles to economic growth that would spur both domestic and foreign direct investment opportunities for the objective of promoting job creation.” Voicing optimism that the Bahamian economy will
join the world in enjoying a “V-shaped recovery”, with a rapid rebound following the present contraction as happened in previous pandemics, Mr Turnquest said the government was forecasting a 15.7 percent year-over-year revenue drop to $1.7bn for 2020-2021 compared to the revised post-Dorian figures. Acknowledging that this represented a $328.1m reduction, Mr Turnquest said the government was allocating more than $250m to expand the business support, social assistance and
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GOWON BOWE
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JAMES SMITH
Concern over budget’s ‘dependency’ message By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A FORMER Chamber of Commerce chairman yesterday voiced concern that the government had sent “a message of dependency” through its 2020-2021 budget presentation. Gowon Bowe told Tribune Business it “can be dangerous” to give the impression that the government alone will rescue The Bahamas from the COVID-19 doldrums given that it simply is not large enough to do all the heavy lifting by itself. Arguing that the government should position itself as a “facilitator” rather than a “provider”, Mr Bowe said that since it only accounted for 25 percent of the economy recovery from the pandemic was impossible without the other “75 percent” - the private sector. K Peter Turnquest, in unveiling the 2020-2021 budget, focused on the government’s massive borrowing and $1.3bn fiscal deficit as essential to preventing the economy’s collapse and social meltdown as a result of the 30 percent-plus unemployment rate. Yet Mr Bowe argued: “The government only represents 25 percent of the economy. In order for there to be any meaningful recovery or meaningful rebound, it has to come from the 75 percent. If the government
doubles what it does, it has limited impact. “The government has to really focus its attention on being a facilitator and stimulating the 75 percent as opposed to getting into a scenario of being a provider. The [budget] communication gave the sense of being a provider for this downturn, and that can be dangerous as it sends a message of dependency. “The government needs to send a message of being a facilitator, and that 75 percent is best able to recover. It cannot pick up the slack for the other 75 percent. It cannot expand its contribution by four times’.” Mr Bowe also warned the government against placing its faith on a swift rebound, or so-called “V-shaped recovery”, from COVID-19 that involves a sharp contraction in economic output followed by rapid growth. Mr Turnquest yesterday said such recoveries had been one “redeeming” feature of previous pandemics, but Mr Bowe countered: “I would caution on speaking about a ‘V-shaped’ recovery, as most economists are saying ow at best there will be a U-shaped recovery with a valley at the bottom - certainly not a sharp contraction and sharp recovery.” The former chamber chairman added that the 2020-2021 budget had also failed to meet his hopes that it would set out a medium
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